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Brandon Crawford

Extension Notes: Crawford, Belt, Keuchel, Harper

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Brandon Crawford didn’t want play anywhere other than San Francisco, which is why he was so insistent on full no-trade protection in his recent contract extension, CSNBayArea.com’s Alex Pavlovic writes.  Giants GM Bobby Evans and Joel Wolfe, Crawford’s agent, first discussed an extension last spring but talks didn’t really go anywhere, so discussions were re-opened in October while Evans was waiting for free agency to open.  As Pavlovic notes, locking Crawford up early means the Giants can now use the Gold Glove-winning shortstop as a selling point to attract free agent starters.  Crawford has his extension settled, and here’s some more news about other stars who may be in line for big multi-year deals…

  • With Crawford’s contract settled, Brandon Belt could be the next Giant to receive an extension, Pavlovic writes in a separate piece. Evans said he’s had some talks with Belt’s representatives but it’s possible they could settle his 2016 contract first before exploring a longer-term deal.  Belt’s concussion history isn’t an obstacle, as Evans said the Giants have “gotten very good medical info that doesn’t give us concerns about Brandon’s health.”  Belt hit .280/.356/.478 with 18 homers in 556 plate appearances last season, and while the Giants were still prone to sitting him against left-handed pitching, Belt posted a very respectable .802 OPS in 145 PA against southpaws.  He’s projected by MLBTR to earn $6.2MM in 2016, his second year of arbitration eligibility.  San Francisco doesn’t have any intention of trading Belt, Pavlovic adds, so rumors of the team’s interest in Chris Davis may be overblown.
  • Dallas Keuchel and the Astros are expected to discuss a long-term deal this offseason and both Keuchel and GM Jeff Luhnow speak to the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich about the possible shape of these talks.  Keuchel is something of a “hard comp,” as Drellich notes, because of how few players have matched his exact career path.  MLBTR’s Steve Adams described some of the main points that will go into the Keuchel negotiations when news first broke of the extension talks in August.
  • Six rival executives gave their guesses about what a Bryce Harper extension might look like to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, with guesses ranging from six years and $180MM to a record-breaking 15-year, $450MM deal with a player opt-out clause.  While the Nationals would be extending Harper at his peak of production, the team would also have some leverage since Harper’s current contract limits his earnings through that would’ve been some very expensive arbitration years.  The executives aren’t sure exactly what form a Harper extension could take, though it could be a moot point since they doubt an extension will be signed — most Scott Boras clients hit free agency rather than sign lengthy extensions with their original teams.  Kilgore’s piece is well worth a full read, as it’s a very interesting look at the numerous factors that will go into Harper’s next contract (whether it’s an extension or a free agent deal) and the six execs present a wide range of fascinating contract scenarios.

Giants Sign Brandon Crawford To Six-Year Extension

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6:11pm: Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News reports the breakdown of Crawford’s contract (via Twitter). He’ll receive a $1.2MM signing bonus $5.8MM in 2016 and $8MM in 2017 before earning $15MM per season from 2018 through 2021 — his would-be free-agent years.

4:56pm: The Giants announced that they’ve signed shortstop Brandon Crawford to a six-year contract extension. The new deal will buy out Crawford’s final two arbitration seasons and four free-agent years, keeping him in San Francisco through 2021 — his age-34 season. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Wasserman Media Group client will receive $75MM and a full no-trade clause in the deal.

Brandon Crawford

Crawford, 29 in January, was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to receive $5.7MM this offseason in what would’ve been his second time through the arbitration process. If we assume something in the range of $8MM for his final arbitration salary, the Giants are buying out four free-agent seasons at a total of about $61-62MM — about $15.5MM annually.

In locking up Crawford, the Giants will secure one of the game’s premier shortstop defenders as he comes off an offensive breakout. Dating back to 2012, Crawford has tallied 42 Defensive Runs Saved — 19th in the Majors of any player at any position in that time. While he’s long been known more for his glove than his bat, Crawford’s isolated power (slugging minus batting average) has increased in each season of his Major League career, beginning at .092 in 2011 and topping out at this season’s hefty .205. Crawford slugged a career-best 21 homers in his age-28 season and tallied an excellent .256/.321/.462 batting line to complement his outstanding defense. Fangraphs valued his contributions at 4.7 wins above replacement, and Baseball-Reference weighed in at 5.6 WAR.

The Giants will hope that Crawford’s power outburst can be sustained, if not built upon, but it should be noted that Crawford doesn’t need to be a 20-homer bat at shortstop to justify the type of money committed to him in this deal. The average shortstop has been about 13 to 14 percent worse than the league-average hitter over the past four seasons, and Crawford’s bat exceeded those levels each year dating back to 2013 (when adjusting for his cavernous home park). Simply delivering better-than-average offense, relative to his positional peers, and continuing to turn in sterling defensive work should be enough for Crawford to justify, if not exceed the value of his new contract.

While Crawford, like any player who signs an extension of this nature, could have potentially earned more money by going year to year through arbitration and hitting the open market at age 30 in search of a five- or six-year deal through his age-36 campaign, he now has the security of knowing that he’ll remain with the only organization he’s ever known for the vast majority of his career. That carries plenty of weight for a player, especially one who was born and raised within about 45 miles of AT&T Park.

As for the Giants, they’ve undoubtedly done their homework in looking ahead at the players who joined Crawford in his service time bracket (between four and five years). Crawford would’ve easily led the shortstop class in free agency that season, as he’d be joined by the likes of Ruben Tejada, Danny Espinosa, Eduardo Nunez and Alexi Amarista. The Giants, with little in the way of big-league ready shortstops in the upper levels of their minor league system — most scouts feel that Christian Arroyo will need to move to third base, while Lucius Fox and Jalen Miller are probably at least four years away — have proactively addressed that need and locked down a fan favorite in the process.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Giants Interested In Extending Brandon Crawford

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The Giants will look into signing shortstop Brandon Crawford to a long-term extension this offseason, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (Insider subscription required).  The 28-year-old Crawford is entering his second winter of arbitration, and MLBTR projects he’ll earn $5.7MM in 2016 — a nice bump from his $3.175MM salary last season.

Of course, Crawford certainly earned himself a healthy raise in the wake of breakout 2015 campaign.  The shortstop had earned a reputation as an all-glove, no-hit player over his first four seasons, though he had been quietly improving at the plate each year; Crawford even posted a 103 wRC+ in 2014, his first above-average year of run creation.  Still, few expected Crawford to suddenly hit 21 homers with a .256/.321/.462 slash line over 561 plate appearances.

While the batting average and OBP were only mild increases over Crawford’s 2011-14 numbers, Crawford had only 27 career homers and a career .359 slugging percentage heading into 2015.  The combination of this potent bat and Crawford’s best defensive year yet (as per the Defensive Runs Saved and UZR/150 metrics) led to a 4.7 fWAR season, a total topped by only 23 players in baseball last season.

It should be noted that Crawford did much of his hitting damage in the first two months of last season, and while he generally kept his power up through the summer, the rest of his numbers fell.  As well, aside from an increase in his swings at pitches in the strike zone, his hitting metrics weren’t appreciatively different from his career norms, so it could be that this inflated home run rate will be hard for Crawford to maintain.  A shortstop with 20-homer pop and strong defense carries a significant price tag, so the question of whether Crawford’s power is for real will surely be a major factor for what the Giants will offer the WMG client.

The MLBTR Extension Tracker reveals that most shortstops between 4-5 years of service time who signed extensions only took short-term deals that covered the rest of their arbitration years.  (The two big exceptions were Troy Tulowitzki and Elvis Andrus, and we can safely assume that the Giants won’t offer anything close to either of those two mega-deals.)  San Francisco is likely looking for a deal that covers Crawford’s two remaining arbitration years and at least one free agent year, probably two.  MLB.com lists three shortstops within their list of the Giants’ top seven prospects, yet none of the trio (Christian Arroyo, Lucius Fox, Jalen Miller) is older than 20 and scouts are mixed on any of them sticking at short at the Major League level, so Crawford wouldn’t be blocking anyone.

Payroll flexibility shouldn’t be an issue for the team, as Buster Posey and Hunter Pence are the only players signed beyond 2017.  One can assume Madison Bumgarner’s 2018 team option will be picked up and the Giants may sign the ace to an extension of his own.  San Francisco has also been linked to several of this winter’s top free agents in the rumor mill, so the club could also have at least one more big long-term deal on their books over the next few months.

Teams generally turn their attention to extensions once their major free agent shopping is over, so you can probably expect talks between Crawford and the Giants to pick up steam in January as the arbitration filing deadline approaches.  The two sides could also settle on a one-year deal for 2016 and then work out an extension later in February or March.

NL West Notes: Diamondbacks, Gray, Padres, Giants

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The Diamondbacks mismanaged their draft pool, tweets Jim Callis of MLB.com. The club took Dansby Swanson with the first overall pick and inked him at the last possible moment. In doing so, they spent $1.7MM less than their pool allowed. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams tweeted, the club could have spent up to $2.328MM more without losing a future draft pick. While a franchise shouldn’t spend that money just to spend it, they should have a few over-slot picks in the early rounds in order to make the most of limited resources.

  • The Rockies originally planned to promote top prospect Jon Gray for Sunday’s start, but they’ve backed off that decision, writes Nick Groke of the Denver Post. His last outing at Triple-A was a three-inning stinker in which he allowed four runs and six hits. The club will wait for a future opportunity to call upon their top pitching prospect. Eddie Butler will take tomorrow’s start.
  • Former Padres GM Josh Byrnes steadily built the farm system during his tenure with the club, writes Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Now current GM A.J. Preller is being second guessed for his bold decision to dismantle the farm for win-now talent. The club could be one year closer to a more organic revitalization, but now the farm system is shallow. Massive offseason overhauls have a bad track record – ask the Marlins and Blue Jays (and the White Sox). It’s also worth noting that Preller may have wanted to reshape the farm system to his preferences.
  • The Giants have built one of the best infields in the sport, notes Jonah Keri of Grantland. The home grown crew includes several surprising contributors. Brandon Belt was a well-regarded prospect – especially among sabermetric circles. However, Brandon Crawford’s offensive emergence was unexpected. Joe Panik is deceptively well-rounded. Matt Duffy was supposed to back up Casey McGehee. Instead, he’s arguably the best rookie in the National League, a class that includes Kris Bryant and Maikel Franco among others.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: Tuesday

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Here are the day’s minor arbitration settlements, with all projections coming via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz (remember that all arb situations can be monitored via MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker):

  • Shortstop Brandon Crawford and the Giants have settled on a one-year deal worth $3.175MM, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (on Twitter). Crawford, arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason, had filed at $3.95MM, while the team had countered with an offer of $2.4MM. His eventual salary represents the exact midpoint between those two figures, as Heyman notes. The 28-year-old Crawford, considered to be a standout defender at shortstop, turned in his best season to date with the bat in 2014, posting career-bests in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and home runs. He did well to top Swartz’s $2.5MM projection by a significant margin.
  • The Royals have agreed to terms with outfielder Jarrod Dyson, Heyman reports on Twitter. Dyson will receive $1.225MM next year, landing just under the midpoint between the two sides’ submission points and his projection of $1.3MM. Dyson, 30, has a marginal bat but is a major threat on the basepaths (36 stolen bases last year despite just 290 plate appearances) and a stellar defender (36.4 UZR/150 in 2014).

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