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Bobby Miller

Dodgers To Select Bobby Miller

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The Dodgers are poised to promote one of their top prospects for his major league debut, as Russell Dorsey of Stadium and Bally Sports reports that the club is selecting the contract of right-hander Bobby Miller. The club will need to clear room for Miller on both the 40-man and active rosters ahead of Tuesday night’s game against the Braves, when Miller is poised to make his major league debut.

The 24-year-old Miller was the 29th overall pick in the 2020 draft, selected by the Dodgers in the first round out of the University of Louisville. In his first season of minor league action in 2021, Miller immediately impressed with a 2.40 ERA in 56 1/3 innings split between High-A and Double-A that included a dazzling 47 inning performance at the High-A level. During his time in High-A, Miller posted a microscopic 1.91 ERA with a 29.8% strikeout rate and a walk rate of just 5.9%.

That performance saw Miller become a consensus top 100 prospect headed into the 2022 season, where Miller saw mixed results in 112 1/3 innings split between Double-A and Triple-A. In 91 innings at the Double-A level last season, Miller posted a fantastic 30.5% strikeout rate and a solid 8.1% walk rate, though he struggled in terms of top-line results with a 4.45 ERA during that time. Upon his promotion to Triple-A, Miller largely improved as his strikeout rate ticked up to 32.9% and his walk rate fell to 7.1%, resulting in a 3.38 ERA in 21 1/3 innings. That being said, Miller allowed a whopping four home runs in that short time frame as a whopping 26.7% of his fly balls left the yard.

Miller’s uneven 2022 season did little to impact his prospect rankings, however, as he entered the 2023 as a consensus top 30 prospect in the sport. While his 2023 season has been off to a rocky start so far, with a 5.65 ERA and a strikeout rate of just 19.7% in 14 1/3 innings so far this season, the young right-hander is an incredibly talented prospect who has flashed a triple-digit fastball, making it easy to see why the Dodgers would be interested in getting their young hurler a look in the big leagues. It isn’t clear whether Miller’s first trip to the majors is expected to last beyond Tuesday night’s start, though with Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Dustin May, Michael Grove, and Ryan Pepiot all on the injured list, it stands to reason that this won’t be Miller’s only opportunity to impact the big league club this season.

Latest On Dodgers’ Pitching Staff

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The Dodgers lost Dustin May to a flexor pronator strain yesterday. That injury is expected to sideline him for four to six weeks, leaving a vacancy in the starting five. L.A. manager Dave Roberts addressed the rotation before today’s loss to the Cardinals.

Roberts noted the club was likely to recall top pitching prospect Gavin Stone to take the open rotation spot (Twitter thread via Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). Stone and Michael Grove are the only pitchers to take a start outside of the Dodgers’ expected top five of Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin, Noah Syndergaard and May.

Grove has been on the 15-day injured list for nearly a month thanks to a groin strain. He’s with the club on the taxi squad and could be reinstated within the next few days, although Roberts suggested he was likelier to step into the relief corps immediately. Grove has been throwing in extended Spring Training but hasn’t gone out on a minor league rehab assignment.

Meanwhile, the club provided an unfortunate update on right-hander Ryan Pepiot. The Butler product was expected to take the fifth spot out of camp with Gonsolin opening the year on the IL. He suffered a brutally timed oblique strain at the end of Spring Training, however, sending him to the 60-day IL. Pepiot has still yet to throw from a mound as he continues to battle side soreness, and Roberts indicated he was unlikely to be back until around the All-Star Break (via Harris).

Stone is the logical choice to come back up. He struggled in his major league debut earlier in the season, allowing five runs in four innings. The 24-year-old has been strong for Triple-A Oklahoma City, pitching to a 4.04 ERA with a quality 27.5% strikeout rate over 35 2/3 frames in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

Alongside Stone, Bobby Miller is one of the sport’s most touted minor league pitchers and has reached Triple-A. He’s made just four starts after being delayed in Spring Training and been tagged for 13 runs in 14 1/3 innings. Unsurprisingly, Roberts suggested the Dodgers want Miller to keep getting reps in Oklahoma City rather than garnering consideration for a short-term call. Miller is not yet on the 40-man roster.

The Dodgers’ Rotation Options If Tony Gonsolin Misses Time

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The Dodgers were dealt some undesirable news last week when All-Star starter Tony Gonsolin rolled his left ankle during a pitcher-fielding practice session. He was diagnosed with a sprain and unable to put much weight on the leg for a few days.

Manager Dave Roberts told reporters yesterday that Gonsolin has again started throwing (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). He’s progressed to long toss from 120 feet but has yet to return to the mound. With Opening Day two weeks out, it seems increasingly likely he’ll require a stint on the 15-day injured list.

If that proves the case, the Dodgers will have to add someone to the season-opening rotation behind Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard and Dustin May. Los Angeles doesn’t have the luxury some clubs do of many built-in off days early in the year. They’re scheduled for games in 13 of the first 14 days and 24 of the initial 26 days of the regular season. Unless the club wants to cover some starts via bullpen games, they’ll need a fifth starter if Gonsolin isn’t available.

Likely Front Runners

Ryan Pepiot, 25, two minor league option years remaining

Pepiot seems the favorite for the job. He started seven of his first nine big league games last season, working to a 3.47 ERA over 36 1/3 innings. Pepiot struck out an above-average 26.3% of opponents but his 16.9% walk rate was untenable for a player hoping to stick in a rotation. He showed more serviceable control in the minors, walking 9.8% of batters faced with a lofty 30.9% strikeout rate and a 2.56 ERA in 91 1/3 frames for Triple-A Oklahoma City.

A former third-round pick, Pepiot has developed into one of the better pitching prospects in the sport. The Butler product has a wipeout changeup and plus spin on a fastball that averaged just under 94 MPH last season. Evaluators have expressed trepidation about his breaking ball and especially the consistency of his strike-throwing. Still, he’s an intriguing young pitcher with upper minors success who has shown a decent ability to miss bats early in his time at the big league level. He’s not a finished product but could be capable of providing the Dodgers with a few solid starts in a fill-in capacity.

Michael Grove, 26, two options remaining

A second-round pick in the 2018 draft, Grove overcame some early-career injury concerns to reach the majors last year. He started six of his first seven big league games, posting a 4.60 ERA through 29 1/3 frames. That came with a modest 18% strikeout rate and a lot of hard contact. The 6’3″ righty did a solid job throwing strikes, though, limiting walks to a roughly average 7.5% clip.

Like Pepiot, Grove had a solid 2022 campaign in a hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League setting. He posted a 4.07 ERA in 59 2/3 Triple-A frames, fanning 26.7% of batters faced against an 8.2% walk percentage. Grove held right-handed batters at the top minor league level to a .213/.266/.368 line over 263 plate appearances. Lefties, on the other hand, teed off at a .279/.344/.541 clip in 192 trips to the dish. It was a similar story at the MLB level. Righties hit .241/.293/.389 in his limited look, while left-handers managed a .275/.333/.522 slash.

Grove doesn’t throw a changeup, relying on a fastball/slider/curveball combination. Prospect evaluators have raised questions about his ability to handle left-handed hitters without a pitch that breaks away from them. That has led to concern about whether he can stick in an MLB rotation long term, though the Dodgers could match him up against right-handed heavy teams like Colorado and the Cubs in the season’s first couple weeks.

Top Prospects

Gavin Stone, 24, not yet on 40-man roster

Stone fell to the fifth round in the 2020 draft. That now looks like a coup, as the Central Arkansas product is a top 100 prospect on lists from Baseball America, FanGraphs, The Athletic and ESPN. He’s now the second-best pitching prospect in the organization (more on that in a minute) after an utterly dominant minor league season. Across three levels, he combined for a 1.92 ERA with an elite 33.9% strikeout rate and serviceable 8.9% walk percentage through 121 2/3 frames. That culminated in six Triple-A outings, in which he allowed only six runs over 23 1/3 innings.

It now seems a matter of when, not if, Stone will make his big league debut this season. Evaluators credit the 6’1″ righty with a mid-90s fastball and one of the best changeups in the minor leagues and suggest he could be a mid-rotation arm in the near future. He doesn’t have a ton of Triple-A experience and isn’t yet on the 40-man, so the most straightforward move would be to send him back to Oklahoma City to open the season. Given his minor league dominance, there’s at least an argument for plugging him in above Pepiot and Grove immediately, even if it’d require a 40-man roster move to do so.

Bobby Miller, 23, not yet on 40-man roster

The Dodgers’ first-round pick in that ’20 draft class, Miller has shot through the minor league ranks and now ranks among the best prospects in the sport. The Louisville product had a 4.45 ERA over 20 outings for Double-A Tulsa last season. That’s not the most impressive mark but it seems the product of an unlucky 62.5% strand rate. Miller struck out an excellent 30.5% of opponents, induced grounders at a quality 48.2% clip, and kept his walks to an 8.1% rate. He earned a late-season bump to Oklahoma City, where he posted elite strikeout and ground-ball marks over four outings.

He’s now almost universally regarded as the organization’s best pitching prospect and a top 50 minor league talent overall. The righty draws unanimous praise for an upper-90s fastball, a pair of power breaking pitches, and an advanced changeup. Miller’s command is still a work in progress but there’s little question the arsenal can play against major league hitters.

Miller doesn’t figure to be an option for the season-opening rotation. Roberts told reporters last week he was being built up slowly to monitor his workload and was unlikely to pitch in a Spring Training game (relayed by Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). He’ll almost certainly be in the majors at some point in 2023 though.

Further Down Depth Chart

Andre Jackson, 26, one option remaining

Jackson has never started a big league game, coming out of the bullpen for all seven of his MLB appearances from 2021-22. The Utah product has worked as a starter in the minors, opening 19 of 21 outings with Oklahoma City last year. He allowed exactly five earned runs per nine innings in Triple-A. Jackson had decent enough strikeout and ground-ball numbers but walked an astronomical 17.2% of opposing hitters.

That’d put him behind Pepiot and Grove on the depth chart. Jackson is on the 40-man roster, though, seemingly giving him a leg up compared to the non-roster invitees in camp. He’s headed into what would be his final option year, so he’ll need to improve his control before long if he’s to earn an extended MLB look in Los Angeles.

Dylan Covey/Robbie Erlin

Both Covey and Erlin have some big league experience and are in camp as non-roster veterans. The 32-year-old Erlin was hit hard in 77 innings with Oklahoma City last season. Covey, 31, returned stateside after a couple solid years in Taiwan’s top league. Covey, in particular, has gotten out to a good start in camp. He’s struck out eight without issuing a walk over six innings. Still, neither seems likely to leapfrog the younger arms in the organization for a season-opening rotation look.

Nick Nastrini/Landon Knack

Nastrini and Knack are both fairly recent college draftees who reached Double-A last season. They’re each among the mid-tier prospects in a strong L.A. system and flashed bat-missing potential with Tulsa. Both pitchers could eventually get an MLB look, though neither figures to be in consideration for a job out of camp. They’re not yet on the 40-man and have yet to reach Triple-A.

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The Dodgers again have a few exciting pitching prospects, two of whom have already gotten a taste of the majors. Pepiot and Grove would accordingly be the safest choices to take the final rotation spot if Gonsolin can’t start the season but they’re not as touted as Miller and Stone. The latter two figure to take the Dodger Stadium mound at some point in 2023, the next in a long line of pitching talent to come through the system.

Big Hype Prospects: Baty, Miller, Dominguez, Cowser, Wiemer

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll look at more prospects who could find themselves on the move in the next few days. Check out last week’s Juan Soto Edition of Big Hype Prospects for more deadline trade candidates.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Brett Baty, 22, 3B, NYM (AA)
350 PA, 14 HR, 1 SB, .303/.394/.507

The Mets are reportedly trying very hard to hang onto Francisco Alvarez and Baty. To accomplish all of their deadline trade goals, they might not be able to cling to both. Alvarez being the scarcer and flashier talent, I figure he’s less likely to be traded outside of a Juan Soto or Shohei Ohtani deal. Baty, however, would fit in a swap for any of the next tier of trade targets. Names like Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas, or Sean Murphy.

Baty is having a fine season after a bit of a slow start. His performance suggests a readiness for the next challenge. When I see a prospect of this caliber promoted slowly, it leads me to wonder if he’s been held down to ensure his trade value doesn’t take a hit from an untimely slump. Baty makes a ton of hard, low-angle contact. Despite a 26 percent strikeout rate, he regularly hits for a high batting average. He makes the most of his rare air-ball contact thanks to an over 20 percent HR/FB ratio. His batted ball profile reminds me of a slightly better Ryan McMahon.

Bobby Miller, 23, SP, LAD (AA)
76.1 IP, 11.20 K/9, 3.30 BB/9, 4.36 ERA

Miller receives plenty of attention for his triple-digit velocity heater, but his results don’t always match the raw stuff. This season, his ERA is a full point higher than his FIP. In the past, we would have shrugged and assumed better days awaited. Unfortunately, it seems his fastball shape and middling command are the culprits. Both issues, should they remain, will only intensify once he reaches the Majors. They could prevent him from realizing his full potential. While some kind of rotation role is likely with a floor as an elite reliever, now could represent a good time for the Dodgers to sell Miller. Some clubs might believe they can fix him.

If the worst outcomes are reminiscent of Sixto Sanchez or Hunter Greene, that’s not a bad thing. Sanchez, you might recall, was dealt for multiple seasons of J.T. Realmuto (the Phillies also included Jorge Alfaro, Will Stewart, and an international bonus slot in the deal). Miller might not be quite as beloved as Sanchez was at the time. His plus command helped assuage doubts about a modest strikeout rate. Still, that implies the Dodgers can expect to add a substantial player if they part with Miller.

Jasson Dominguez, 19, OF, NYY (A+)
(A) 423 PA, 9 HR, 19 SB, .265/.373/.440
(A+) 27 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .292/.370/.500

Dominguez is best-known for having the physique of a mid-20s body builder as a 17-year-old. Now 19, the developmentally mature teenager recently earned a promotion to High-A where he’s one of the youngest players on hand (recently promoted Jackson Chourio is the youngest player at the level). Reports heading into this season were mixed with some notes emphasizing his physicality as potentially detrimental. He’s put those concerns to rest while display above average plate discipline with plenty of blistering contact. Presently, he makes a lot of hard, low-angle, pulled contact. He has time to make adjustments to unlock either a more balanced or more power-centric approach.

Dominguez comes with substantial bust risk so any acquiring team should make sure they feel confident about their development staff.

Colton Cowser, 22, OF, BAL (AA)
(A+) 278 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .258/.385/.410
(AA) 98 PA, 7 HR, 1 SB, .324/.480/.689

Cowser is a personal favorite of mine. He has fantastic discipline, a better-than-average swinging strike rate, and a batted ball profile maxed out for high BABIPs. In short, he is the ideal leadoff hitter. His game is a little bit like Alek Thomas – if the DBacks outfielder took a lot more pitches. While an adjustment isn’t strictly necessary, Cowser could probably stand to swing more often. Adding in a little bit loft wouldn’t hurt either. There are a lot of directions this profile can go, and most of them yield some type of really useful ballplayer. To reach a superstar ceiling, he’ll have to take bold risks regarding his approach and mechanics.

Depending on who you talk to, Cowser is the Orioles third- or fourth-best prospect. With their surprise contention, the front office is undoubtedly kicking around ideas. From the perspective of continued employment, it’s safer for Mike Elias to stay the course. If they do spend prospects on reinforcements, they’ll likely either be from the bargain bin or club-controlled for a long period. In the latter scenario, some of their better names like Cowser, Coby Mayo, and Jordan Westburg will need to be in play.

Joey Wiemer, 23, OF, MIL (AA)
364 PA, 15 HR, 24 SB, .243/.321/.446

Wiemer has the look and the size of the notable prospect. At times, he puts up video game numbers as he did in High-A last season. Opinions are divided. Some scouts I spoke with last fall weren’t enamored with his playing style, believing he’d fade into a role player as he advanced through the system. Unaffiliated scouts who are plugged more into the fantasy baseball scene love his combination of power and aggression on the basepaths.

As reported earlier today, the Brewers are looking for mid-tier upgrades like Ramon Laureano. While the club would undoubtedly prefer to hold onto one of their few top prospects, they have one of the weaker farm systems behind Chourio. Their list of attractive trade assets might not extend much beyond Wiemer, Sal Frelick, and Ethan Small.

Five More

Kyle Harrison, SFG (20): In his latest outing – his first appearance since July 8 – Harrison fanned nine of 10 batters faced. It was a masterful performance. The soon-to-be 21-year-old is ready for the next challenge.

Oswald Peraza, NYY (22): With the Yankees eyeballing a late-October run, one of their young shortstops is probably going to wind up joining another club. While Peraza isn’t as impressive as Anthony Volpe, he still profiles as a future above average shortstop. He’s hit 13 home runs with 24 steals and a .258/.329/.446 triple-slash in 319 Triple-A plate appearances.

Royce Lewis, MIN (23): Lewis showed signs of a breakout in the spring of 2021 before missing the entire season. Then, after showing well in Triple-A and a 41 plate appearance stint in the Majors, he again suffered a season-ending injury. The Twins undoubtedly don’t want to sell Lewis. They stuck it out with Byron Buxton so it’s not as if they’re averse to players with the “injury prone” label. If they’re thirsty enough, he’s a highly valuable prospect who happens to be incapable of helping them contend this season.

Michael Busch, LAD (24): A Busch trade is beginning to feel inevitable. The oldest player featured today, Busch is having a decent but unspectacular campaign at Triple-A. He’s on a tear this month, batting .310/.384/.529 in July (125 wRC+). Since he looks like someone who might need awhile to adjust in the Majors, the Dodgers might prefer to skip that portion of his development by cashing out.

Ricky Tiedemann, TOR, (19): A youthful southpaw who has chewed through the competition, Tiedemann might just be the Blue Jays most sellable prospect. He has a bright and promising future after already succeeding in High-A as a teenager. However, TINSTAAPP applies, and the Jays current contention window may well be closed by the time Tiedemann is big league ready.

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