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Bobby Abreu

Odds and Ends: Abreu, Beckett, Helton, Schilling

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Friday afternoon rumor tidbits…

  • The Indians will probably let Kenny Lofton leave while exercising Joe Borowski’s $4MM option.  No big surprise there.
  • Nor is it a surprise that the Yankees are heavily leaning towards exercising Bobby Abreu’s $16MM option.
  • From the what might’ve been department: Red Sox owner John Henry was in favor of signing A.J. Burnett instead of trading for Josh Beckett.  One could make a solid argument that the Red Sox would be better off if Henry had gotten his wish.  Beckett and Julio Lugo combined for 8.6 wins at $14MM this year while Burnett and Hanley Ramirez combined for 14.8 wins at $12.4MM (according to WARP).
  • From that same department – Tom Gage notes that the Tigers once nearly acquired Todd Helton for Tony Clark.  There were many Clark rumors from 1999-2001 before the Red Sox claimed him off waivers.  I heard Buck and McCarver talking recently about how Helton is not a product of his home park.  For the record Helton has hit .368/.474/.668 at home in his career and .304/.409/.515 on the road.  He probably belongs in the Hall but it would be a lot tighter if his career OPS was .924 instead of 1.014.
  • Nick Cafardo makes his case for the Red Sox to re-sign Curt Schilling.
  • A scouting look at Hiroki Kuroda, plus other Japanese pitchers who may come over (hat tip to MetsBlog).  Jason Churchill estimates a three-year deal for Kuroda at $9-11MM per.
  • How would you like to face a 125 mph fastball?

Cashman Takes Firm Stance On A-Rod

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When we last heard from him eight days ago, Brian Cashman left himself some wiggle room to negotiate with Alex Rodriguez even if he opts out in November and the Yankees lose the Texas money.  The implication then was that higher-ranking club officials could overrule Cashman’s recommendation.

Yesterday, after the Yankees’ meeting of the minds in Tampa, Cashman took a firmer stance:

If Alex Rodriguez opts out of his contract then we will not participate in free agency.  That is accurate and that is definitive.

Why this is being aired out in public I’m not sure, but at this point the Yankees will seem kind of stupid if they do negotiate with Rodriguez after he opts out.  It really seems that they’re not kidding about not wanting to lose the Texas money or enter a bidding war.  Meanwhile Scott Boras just spent three full days convincing A-Rod to opt out.  However, Ken Davidoff believes that rather than opt out, A-Rod will sign an extension amounting to $297MM over nine seasons.

George King also revealed that Bobby Abreu’s $16MM option is at the bottom of the queue.  The Yanks will make decisions on Joe Torre, A-Rod, Mariano Rivera, and Jorge Posada first.

Yanks Likely To Exercise Abreu’s Option

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Bobby Abreu has a $16MM option for the 2008 season with a $2MM buyout attached.  Effectively, it’s a $14MM decision for Brian Cashman.  Despite an awful start to the season, Abreu has solid counting stats and a .287/.367/.454 line overall.  Since June 1st, he’s hitting an elite .320/.398/.548 in 347 ABs.  Abreu will turn 34 in March.

According to both Buster Olney and Tyler Kepner of the New York Times, the option is a virtual lock to be picked up.  Most teams would be very eager to sign Abreu on a one-year, $14MM deal, and that’s what this amounts to.  Abreu would be much easier to trade than Johnny Damon, if Cashman wants to take that route.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Damon, Glaus, Wells

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Ken Rosenthal has a new column up; here are some rumor-related points of interest.

  • As you know, it doesn’t make sense for the Yankees to keep both Bobby Abreu and Johnny Damon around for 2008.  It’s just not an efficent way to spend $29MM.  Rosenthal says Damon would be open to waiving his no-trade clause, if the Yankees struck a deal with a team that fell under his 12-team protection.  Damon is apparently open to regular playing time on teams not located on the West Coast.  The White Sox, Phillies, Braves, or Astros might make sense, in my opinion.  The Yanks’ ability to pull an exercise-and-trade with Abreu’s 2008 option is hindered by his full no-trade protection.
  • Rosenthal believes the Blue Jays might aggressively shop Troy Glaus this winter.  Glaus surprisingly cleared waivers recently.  Glaus is holding all the cards – he has a full no-trade clause and a player option for 2009.
  • The Rockies will pass on David Wells, but the Dodgers are still interested.  The Rox might still go for Steve Trachsel if they opt for experience over potential.
  • Craig Monroe seems to be an option for second-tier clubs, especially if he becomes a free agent.  The Giants will pass. 

Byrnes Extension Seems Unlikely

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It seems unlikely that the Diamondbacks will sign 31 year-old outfielder Eric Byrnes to a contract extension.  According to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, the team won’t even approach Juan Pierre’s five-year, $45MM deal.  And Juan Pierre isn’t good.

It’s just the business reality – the Diamondbacks have way too much outfield talent in their system to give Byrnes anything near what he’s worth.  He’d probably have to take something like two years, $20MM to remain in Arizona.  Earlier I said 4/32 might do it but now I’m thinking even that wouldn’t work.  I still like him as a possible White Sox next year.

Piecoro also mentioned that Josh Byrnes inquired on Bobby Abreu and Jermaine Dye, but is backing off because Carlos Gonzalez was requested.  Buster Olney proposes Shannon Stewart as a lower-cost alternative.

Yankees To Offer Up Abreu?

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Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record talked to one Major League executive who believes the Yankees are likely to shop outfielder Bobby Abreu to the NL this month.  The key would be the Yankees paying a portion of the $10MM coming to Abreu this year.

Abreu still has a $16MM option for 2008 with a $2MM buyout attached.  If he has a few more months like June – .290/.408/.470 – the option could still be picked up.  The Yanks could exercise it and then look to trade him during the offseason.  The cost certainty and one-year commitment might be attractive to some teams, even if Abreu is basically now Brian Giles.  The Yankees are currently 12 games out in the AL East and 8.5 out in the Wild Card race.  Nonetheless, their playoff chances fall in the 11-18% range based on the various simulations out there.  It’s not quite time to fold it in and play for next year. 

However, if the Yankees keep losing and are more officially out of it in three weeks, Abreu seems the most logical choice to be traded.  Kyle Farnsworth is a no-brainer as well.  Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, and Mariano Rivera could all become free agents after the season, but I can’t see any of them getting traded.

Abreu would be a nice fit in Arizona as a summer rental, in my opinion.

White Sox Won’t Trade For Prospects

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White Sox GM Kenny Williams spoke to reporters yesterday, indicating that his phone lines are buzzing but he won’t be trading his future free agents for prospects.  Talent for talent is the name of the game, though the Jermaine Dye/Bobby Abreu talks have apparently died.

The Sox are given a meager 1.7% chance to make the playoffs, according to Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA.  And I rounded up.  They’re in fourth place, seven games back in the AL Central.  They’re in fifth for the wild card, 4.5 games out.  If we try this exercise without PECOTA projections, the chances still seem bleak at 4.1%.  Using a third method, Elo, the Sox have an 11.2% chance.  I’d lean toward the latter; while the competition is fierce, 4.5 games doesn’t seem insurmountable.

Williams is an optimist, which fans have to appreciate.  He even mentioned that he’s up for the "rent-a-player scenario."  That could mean acquiring even more impending free agents, like perhaps Adam Dunn.

Like all other teams, Williams has almost two months to decide if his team is truly a contender.  The worst outcome would be treading water for that time period.

Abreu For Dye Swap Still Alive

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Ken Rosenthal’s recent report indicated that the Jermaine Dye for Bobby Abreu talks had cooled over the last week or so.  However, Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times indicated today that this deal "has started to take some life."

Read the article, and you’ll find some quotes from Dye that apparently have annoyed the White Sox.  Personally I think his comments are just fine.  Basically he says that he will play hard for any team, and that swapping him for another veteran won’t ignite the Sox.  Who can disagree with that?  Would Abreu really spark the Sox?

The last time the Sox made a challenge trade like this, if I recall correctly, was the Esteban Loaiza for Jose Contreras swap, also with the Yankees.  That occurred at the 2004 trading deadline, and worked out quite well for the Sox.

I don’t like this trade for Chicago though.  Despite his struggles, Dye is on a 30 homer pace.  And the $16MM option on Abreu next year – that’s only appealing if he’s an All-Star for the White Sox.  That’s hard to picture given what we’ve seen, but maybe Greg Walker has ideas on how to fix him.

It should also be noted that the Giants have been scouting the White Sox recently, and could look to acquire Dye or others.

Rosenthal’s Latest Video

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Ken Rosenthal reeled off a slew of sweet trade rumors in a couple of videos today, which you can watch at FOXSports.  Let’s discuss.

  • Rosenthal says the Cubs won’t trade Carlos Zambrano unless they fall out of contention or the big righty requests a trade.  Rosenthal finds neither scenario likely.  He says Zambrano still has a good relationship with Jim Hendry, and the Cubs still intend to sign him.  The contract remains on hold.  Interesting, but not surprising to see that the Cubs are still veering towards this mistake after what we’ve seen this year.
  • Lots of good Jermaine Dye stuff from Rosenthal.  About ten days ago, the White Sox kicked around the idea of sending Dye to the Yankees for Bobby Abreu.  The Yanks covet Dye’s right-handed power, and Ozzie loves Abreu, his countryman.  Rosenthal says the White Sox like the option of keeping Abreu for $16MM in ’08 if they so choose.  That option comes with a $2MM buyout attached.  The Dye/Abreu swap may be on hold because Dye is finally showing some signs of life.  I have to be honest – I don’t understand the timeline here.  If the Sox were considering this ten days ago, nothing Dye has done since should have changed their thinking.
  • Other suitors for Dye: the Padres or Dodgers.  The two NL West competitors rank 10th and 12th in the league in slugging, respectively.  No doubt the Dodgers have the goods, but what reasonable trade could the Padres work out?  Kenny Williams and Kevin Towers have matched up twice before, but on minor trades involving guys like D’Angelo Jimenez and Geoff Blum.
  • Rosenthal says the Padres are also eyeing Adam Dunn, for whom their pitchers’ ballpark would present less of an obstacle.  Two hitches: Dunn can become a free agent after this season if he’s traded, and the Reds will ask for a lot.  The Padres’ best pitching prospect, Cesar Carrillo, recently had Tommy John surgery.  Their best hitting prospect, Cedric Hunter, is trying to figure out Low A ball.  Third baseman Chase Headley is hitting well in Double A, and I’m sure plenty of teams would like to have him.  Headley is somewhat blocked by Kevin Kouzmanoff.  Honestly, though, the Padres don’t have much in the minors to trade.  At the Major League level, they might be able to part with Cla Meredith and get a decent hitter in return. 

More Rosenthal

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Ken Rosenthal’s been a busy man today.  He’s got another column up for FOXSports.com; go read it.  The high-level version:

  • Rosenthal sees the Yankees declining Bobby Abreu’s 2008 option and turning to Melky Cabrera or a big name free agent for right field.  I agree; you can check out my other assessments of 2008 club options here.  Might be time to switch my predictions on Juan Uribe, Jose Guillen, and Paul Byrd.  I can now see Uribe declined and the other two exercised. Byrd has come alive, and Guillen’s strong May has sparked the chance of the Ms taking their $9MM option for ’08.
  • Torii Hunter’s having a well-timed career year, but the Twins can’t trade him unless they’re out of contention.  Tough situation.  The Twins are 7.5 games back in the Central, 7 out of the wild card.  If it’s double digits in July the decision gets easier.
  • It wouldn’t be easy for the Cardinals to trade Scott Rolen right now, based on the factors outlined here.
  • Erick Aybar remains an excellent trading chip for the Angels.  His .600 OPS doesn’t help his value, but it’s pretty much what PECOTA expected.  There’s a small chance Aybar becomes Barry Larkin, but to me he looks like the next Cesar Izturis.
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