Blake Snell

Yankees Interested In Blake Snell

By Darragh McDonald | January 4, 2024 at 12:43pm CDT

The Yankees are interested in left-hander Blake Snell, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. That meshes with reporting from Andy Martino of SNY, who says the club is “planning an active January” as it hopes to add to its pitching staff before Spring Training. Martino adds that Snell has privately expressed an interest in the Yankees, though also adds they are not the only club in his market.

The Yankees were heavily pursuing Yoshinobu Yamamoto, highlighting their desire to add to their rotation. Previous reports from Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggested that, if the Yanks missed on Yamamoto, they might pivot to build a super bullpen instead of focusing on the rotation. Now that Yamamoto has signed with the Dodgers, the Yankees are exploring their other options and it seems they haven’t totally abandoned the idea of a significant rotation addition. They have had ongoing interest in bringing back Jordan Montgomery and now Snell appears to be on the table as well.

If they were to sign Snell, they would have a rotation fronted by the two reigning Cy Young winners. Snell just took home the National League hardware for his excellent season with the Padres while Gerrit Cole got the American League trophy. Despite that, the pitchers are actually quite different. While Cole has been the poster boy for stability and reliability, Snell’s career has been more erratic.

He finished 2023 with 180 innings pitched for the Friars, registering a 2.25 ERA in that time. He struck out 31.5% of batters faced and kept 44.4% of batted balls on the ground but also gave out walks at a 13.3% clip. That got him second career Cy Young, the first coming with the Rays in 2018 when he had a 1.89 ERA. But the four seasons in between those two elite campaigns were more shaky. His ERA finished 4.20 or higher twice and he didn’t reach 130 innings in any of them, dealing with various injuries.

Those concerns aside, Snell is clearly one of the best pitchers in the league when things are going well and he has received interest from the Giants, Angels, Mets and Red Sox. The Yankees slotting him next to Cole would give the club an excellent one-two punch. Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes are each coming off disappointing injury-marred seasons but have been excellent in the past. If they are able to bounce back this year, and the club signs Snell, then they would be looking at arguably the best front four in the league. The depth was thinned out in the Juan Soto deal, with four pitchers going to San Diego, but the Yanks still have Clarke Schmidt, Clayton Beeter, Yoendrys Gómez, Luis Gil and Will Warren as options for the back end.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Snell to land a seven-year deal worth $200MM, around $28.6MM per year. The Yankees haven’t been shy about handing out huge deals for starting pitchers in recent years, as they gave Cole $324MM, Rodon $162MM and reportedly offered Yamamoto $300MM over 10 years.

Per Roster Resource, the club currently has a payroll of $279MM and a competitive balance tax figure of $290MM. The Yanks are set to pay the luxury tax for a third straight year, meaning they have a base tax rate of 50% for any spending beyond the lowest threshold of $237MM. As the brackets go up in $20MM increments, their tax rates jump to 62%, 95% and 110%. They are already well beyond the third line and just $7MM away from the highest tier. That means that signing Snell to a salary in the $25-30MM range would actually cost them around twice as much when factoring in the taxes.

Last year, the club was reluctant to pass the final tier but it feels as though they are more willing to blow past it this year, given that they are so close to it and still actively pursuing upgrades. Even if they eventually turn away from a rotation addition and turn instead to relievers like Jordan Hicks or Robert Stephenson, they would still find themselves on the other side of the border.

Latest On Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery

By Nick Deeds | December 28, 2023 at 6:55pm CDT

While many around the game have long assumed that the free agent market, particularly that for pitching, would pick up following right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s decision to sign with the Dodgers last week, that seemingly has not come to fruition to this point. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com suggests that may be due to the fact that agent Scott Boras, who represents top remaining free agent starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, “may be keen” on taking his time in finding new homes for the two southpaws. That’s hardly out of character for Boras, who has in previous seasons allowed star clients to linger on the free agent market well into Spring Training, as he did with Bryce Harper during the 2018-19 offseason.

That willingness to wait out the market could be, at least in part, due to the number of potential suitors still available for the pair to choose from. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the Phillies, Red Sox, Giants, and Angels are all interested in both lefties. The Angels and Giants were linked to Snell last week, though their apparent interest in Montgomery was not mentioned in that reporting. Heyman also adds that the Yankees have interest in Montgomery, who had previously been floated as a back-up plan for them if they failed to lure Yamamoto to the Bronx, though he notes that it’s unclear if the club is interested in Snell as well.

It’s hardly a surprise that the Angels and Giants would expand their purview beyond Snell to include Montgomery, given the duo’s status as the clear top starters on the free agent market and each team’s obvious needs in the rotation. Likewise, the Yankees are known to be in the market for a top-of-the-rotation starter and clearly aren’t afraid to spend big after reportedly making Yamamoto a $300MM offer. Similarly, the Red Sox have been connected to top-of-the-rotation arms all throughout the offseason, though Cotillo cautions that the club is currently more focused on free agent arms a tier below Snell and Montgomery like Lucas Giolito and Shota Imanaga.

The Phillies are perhaps the most surprising inclusion on this list. While the club was among the finalists for Yamamoto’s services, the club has reportedly since pivoted to prioritizing a contract extension with Zack Wheeler rather than adding additional impact talent to the 2024 club. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski confirmed as much when discussing the club’s pursuit of Yamamoto with reporters recently, noting that future additions to the club figure to come “more around the edges” of the roster than anywhere else. That being said, the club evidently had the payroll space available to be a significantly player in the Yamamoto sweepstakes, making it at least feasible that the Phillies could make the top offer to either Montgomery or Snell if they so chose. Reporting early in the offseason described the club as “lukewarm” on Snell, though it’s possible the club’s tune regarding Snell has changed now that he would be pitching alongside Nola in the rotation rather than replacing the club’s homegrown ace.

The two southpaws’ markets being somewhat intertwined is not necessarily a surprise given their stature as the clear best free agent starters remaining on the market. That being said, the pair bring noticeably different skillsets to the table. Montgomery, who celebrated his 31st birthday yesterday, has been a model of consistency in recent years, with his year-to-year stats never drifting too far from his career norms: a solid 22.5% strikeout rate, a low 6.6% walk rate, and a 3.68 ERA (116 ERA+). With that being said, Montgomery’s 2023 season saw him take a step forward in terms of his run-prevention numbers as the lefty posted a 3.20 ERA and 3.56 FIP across a career-high 188 2/3 innings of work, giving him the look of a potential front-of-the-rotation workhorse with a stable, middle-of-the-rotation floor.

Snell, by contrast, has seen significantly higher highs and lower lows throughout his career in the big leagues. Having won the AL Cy Young award in 2018 and the NL Cy Young award this past season, Snell is among the most electric pitchers in baseball when he’s on as demonstrated by his sterling 1.23 ERA and sensational 35% strikeout rate over the final 23 starts of his 2023 campaign. On the other hand, however, Snell is also prone to stretches of significant struggles. From 2019-21, Snell posted just a 4.06 ERA and 3.73 FIP across 61 starts thanks to a severe problem with home runs (16.9% of his fly balls left the yard during that time) and a concerning 10.6% walk rate. During that three-year stretch, Snell had the look of a #4 starter despite never posting a strikeout rate below 30%. Even in his best years, he struggles to maintain his command as demonstrated by him allowing free passes at a league-leading 13.3% clip even en route to the second Cy Young award of his career this season.

Even as the suitors for both players are mostly similar, the differences in how each lefty gets to his results may be creating disparity in their price tags on the open market. Cotillo suggests that while Montgomery is expected to command a “massive” deal this offseason, some in the industry reportedly believe Snell’s market is less robust with Cotillo noting that a “person with knowledge of the pitching market” suggested that teams could end up offering Snell a three-year deal with a high average annual value and multiple opt-outs, similar to the deal shortstop (and fellow Boras client) Carlos Correa signed with the Twins during the 2021-22 offseason.

Of course, that report is just one source’s view of Snell’s market. It’s worth noting that MLBTR projected Snell for a far more significant seven-year, $200MM contract in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where he placed fourth behind only Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, and Yamamoto. While a deal similar to Correa’s first pact in Minnesota could certainly make sense for Snell if his market fails to materialize, the number of clubs reportedly in search of front-of-the-rotation talent and Boras’s previous willingness to wait out the market in search of the best deal make it unlikely a more creative, shorter-term arrangement would come together anytime soon.

This Date In Transaction History: Blake Snell Trade

By Anthony Franco | December 27, 2023 at 7:34pm CDT

Today marks three years since the blockbuster that sent a former (and future) Cy Young winner across leagues. The Rays dealt Blake Snell to the Padres in the late evening of December 27, 2020, bringing back a four-player prospect package. Luis Patiño headlined the return, which also included Blake Hunt, former top prospect Francisco Mejía and 2020 third-round draftee Cole Wilcox.

The deal came as something of a surprise, as the Rays weren’t under huge financial pressure to move Snell. Despite the controversy surrounding Kevin Cash’s decision to lift Snell in Game 6 of that year’s Fall Classic, Tampa Bay could’ve held the southpaw into the following season. Snell was under contract for respective salaries of $10.5MM, $12.5MM and $16MM covering the 2021-23 campaigns.

Nevertheless, the Tampa Bay front office felt the prospect return was too strong to pass up. Patiño was viewed as one of the sport’s most talented pitching prospects despite struggling in a brief MLB debut that season. Hunt was a borderline Top 100 minor leaguer at the time. Mejía’s stock had fallen from its peak as he struggled against big league pitching, but he was only entering his age-25 season and had less than three years of MLB service. Wilcox was viewed by many evaluators as a first-round talent that year, only dropping to the third because of a lofty bonus demand.

The deal didn’t pan out at all as the Rays had envisioned. While Snell has had a volatile career, he recaptured the ace-caliber upside he’d shown in Tampa Bay. After turning in a 4.20 ERA over 27 starts during his first year with the Friars, he rebounded to post a 3.38 mark in 2022. The cumulative 3.79 ERA he managed across 256 2/3 innings was solid, although it didn’t hint at the Cy Young level he’d reach in 2023.

Snell didn’t start the ’23 campaign well. He owned a 5.48 ERA with a strikeout rate just under 24% through the first month. After a slight uptick in strikeouts and a 3.82 mark in May, Snell kicked off a four-month stretch as the most dominant pitcher on the planet. From June 1 on, he struck out 35% of batters faced and allowed 1.23 earned runs per nine. His 1.54 ERA after the All-Star Break is the 12th-lowest second half rate since 2000 (minimum 75 innings).

The dominating finish led Snell to cruise to a second career Cy Young. He was a near-unanimous choice as the NL’s top pitcher after posting an MLB-best 2.25 ERA through 180 innings. Snell hit free agency and seems unlikely to return to a San Diego organization that has cut spending. Assuming he signs elsewhere in the coming weeks, he concludes his time as a Padre with a 3.15 ERA while striking out 31.5% of opponents in 436 2/3 frames.

As a team, San Diego didn’t have the kind of success they envisioned. They reached the postseason just once in the last three years. A second-half collapse cost them a playoff berth in 2021. They rebounded with a trip to the NLCS in ’22 but finished 82-80 last season. A strong final couple weeks ostensibly brought them within a couple games of a playoff spot, but the 2023 club was more or less finished by the end of August.

One can debate whether the Friars should’ve more aggressively marketed Snell, Juan Soto and Josh Hader at the deadline. A fringe contender at the time, they elected to add around the margins rather than move their top impending free agents or Soto (whose arbitration price tag they knew was rising). As a team that exceeded the luxury tax threshold, they’ll only receive picks after the fourth round as compensation for losing Snell and Hader, each of whom rejected a qualifying offer.

San Diego’s subsequent decisions don’t negate how well they fared in the Snell trade, however. That turned out to be one of the more lopsided deals of the past few seasons. No one in the return found much success in Tampa Bay. Three of the four are out of the organization entirely.

Patiño saw MLB action in each season from 2021-23. He logged 101 1/3 innings as a Ray, turning in a 5.24 ERA. Patiño’s control hasn’t developed as expected and he has struggled with home runs throughout his MLB tenure. The Rays moved on at the deadline, sending him to the White Sox for cash. He ended up back in San Diego last week; the Friars claimed him when Chicago put him on waivers. He’s out of options, so he’ll either need to open the season on the MLB roster or be made available to other teams yet again.

Neither of the other prospects involved have reached the majors. Hunt has slowly climbed the minor league ladder, hitting at a roughly league average level at each stop. The Rays didn’t want to carry him on the 40-man roster, yet Hunt was eligible for minor league free agency after this season. Tampa Bay dealt him to the Mariners (who did add him to the 40-man) for 2022 eighth-round pick Tatem Levins last month. Wilcox remains in the organization but underwent Tommy John surgery late in the ’21 season. He returned to post a 5.23 ERA in 25 starts at Double-A this year. He went unselected in the Rule 5 draft a few weeks ago.

Mejía, arguably the fourth piece of the return at the time, had the most success for Tampa Bay. The switch-hitting catcher had a .260/.322/.414 batting line in 84 games in 2021. His offense cratered over the last two years, though, as he hit .237/.262/.387 in 459 plate appearances over that stretch. The Rays designated him for assignment in August. He reached free agency at year’s end and signed a minor league deal with the Angels last week.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Angels, Giants Among Teams Pursuing Blake Snell

By Steve Adams | December 22, 2023 at 11:00pm CDT

The Angels have lost Shohei Ohtani to the Dodgers and never appeared to be a finalist for NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but they’re pursuing the biggest fish remaining on the free agent market, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, who reports that the Halos have made reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell “their priority” now that Ohtani has officially departed. The Giants, too, are interested in Snell, per Slusser.

Signing Snell would be a departure from the norm for either club. The Angels’ three-year commitment to Tyler Anderson last offseason was the organization’s first multi-year deal for a free agent starting pitcher since signing Joe Blanton to a two-year contract a decade prior. Owner Arte Moreno has been comfortable with long-term deals for position players — oftentimes mega-deals that haven’t worked out favorably (Albert Pujols, Anthony Rendon, Josh Hamilton) — but has generally been wary of similar commitments to pitchers. The Angels did pursue Gerrit Cole when he was a free agent, but they of course lost out to the Yankees’ then-record bid of $324MM. (Yamamoto topped that mark by $1MM when he agreed to terms with the Dodgers.)

Similarly, the Giants have eschewed long-term deals for starting pitchers in five years under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. San Francisco hasn’t gone beyond three years on any starting pitcher under the current regime — arguably a shrewd philosophy but also the reason that Kevin Gausman is starring for the Blue Jays on what now looks to be a wildly affordable five-year, $110MM contract. Zaidi’s club has gone to three years to sign Anthony DeSclafani and issued two-year deals for veterans Alex Wood, Alex Cobb, Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling, but longer-term pacts haven’t been in this front office group’s playbook.

Then again, the Giants also haven’t been consistently successful under this front office regime. Their 107-win season in 2021 stands as a clear highlight, but the Giants have fallen well shy of the lofty expectations set by that outlier season. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic suggested earlier this week in his latest Giants mailbag that ownership could be providing “a little more direction from above” than in prior offseasons — particularly when it comes to this sort of long-term pursuit (one that, as Baggarly rightly notes, is largely possible by virtue of the front office’s prior aversion to taking on this sort of long-term risk). To be clear, Baggarly wasn’t addressing Snell in particular but rather the general philosophical shift associated with pursuing larger-scale additions from the free-agent market.

From a payroll vantage point, both the Halos and Giants can handle a weighty commitment to Snell, who’s reportedly been seeking a commitment of $200MM or more. San Francisco currently projects for a $158MM payroll, per Roster Resource, to say nothing of the fact that the Giants are about $45MM shy of the $237MM luxury-tax threshold. (Luxury tax is calculated by the sum of the average annual value on the payroll and can thus differ from the bottom-line dollars paid out in a given year; contracts are often backloaded or frontloaded for varying purposes.) The only two players signed beyond the 2025 season are ace Logan Webb (five years, $90MM from 2024-28) and newly signed center fielder Jung Hoo Lee, who inked a six-year, $113MM pact.

As for the Angels, they’re stuck paying the aforementioned Rendon $38MM for each of the next three seasons on his backloaded deal. There’s little no hope of trading that cumbersome contract away, so the team can only hope for a return to his Nationals form — unlikely as it may be as he enters his age-34 season. Anderson is signed through 2025 at $13MM per season, and the Angels still owe former MVP Mike Trout $34.45MM annually through the 2030 season.

Even with the huge commitments to Trout and Rendon, the Angels project for a $152MM payroll in 2024 and sit at just $167MM in terms of luxury-tax obligations. That leaves ample room to sign Snell, even if doing so would require shattering the franchise-record for a starting pitcher contract (Jered Weaver’s five-year, $85MM deal).

It stands to reason that with both Ohtani and Yamamoto now off the board, the market for Snell will continue to crystalize in the coming weeks. Several runners-up for Yamamoto, in particular, could pivot to consider Snell — although various reports out of New York have indicated that the Mets aren’t expected to be among them. Will Sammon of The Athletic wrote last weekend that the Mets weren’t planning to pursue other top-tier free agents if they fell short in their bid for Yamamoto, whom they considered to be uniquely aligned with their long-term plan given his youth. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo echoed that sentiment today, reporting that the Mets shouldn’t be expected to pursue Snell or fellow free agent Jordan Montgomery.

NL West Notes: Snell, Dodgers, Manaea, Giants, E-Rod

By Mark Polishuk | December 16, 2023 at 11:08am CDT

“The Dodgers are showing interest in seemingly every pitcher but Blake Snell,” Jon Heyman of The New York Post writes, running counter to Heyman’s own report from a month ago suggesting that Los Angeles was one of the teams in on the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner. While Heyman didn’t go into specifics about why Snell may no longer be on the Dodgers’ radar, obviously much has changed for L.A. within the last month — namely the Shohei Ohtani signing and (on the more immediate pitching front) the impending trade and extension involving Tyler Glasnow.

Since Los Angeles exceeded the luxury tax last season, the Dodgers had to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2024 draft as compensation for Ohtani, who rejected the Angels’ qualifying offer. Snell also rejected a QO from the Padres, so the thought of giving up two more picks to add Snell might simply not be palatable for the Dodgers. While Snell’s market has been a little less clear than other top pitchers on the free agent market, such clubs as the Giants, Red Sox, and Padres have all been linked to Snell at various points, and it remains to be seen what other suitors might emerge once the likes of Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Jordan Montgomery are off the board. The Dodgers continue to be involved in the hunt for Yamamoto, and could pursue other trade options beyond Glasnow in order to address the lack of proven depth in their rotation.

East Notes: Red Sox, Mets, Taylor, Arozarena

By Nick Deeds | December 3, 2023 at 8:13pm CDT

The Red Sox are known to be interested in adding to the front of their rotation this winter, though Alex Speier of the Boston Globe suggests that desire could come with a major caveat. Speier relays that the club prefers to avoid signing a player attached to a Qualifying Offer. President of baseball operations Craig Breslow neither confirmed nor denied that preference when asked about it by reporters, acknowledging that while there are instances where a player being attached to draft pick compensation “shouldn’t be an impediment or deterrent,” there are also other situations where a QO could be an obstacle.

Of course, such a preference wouldn’t completely shut the door on a top-of-the-market arm for the Red Sox. Left-hander Jordan Montgomery isn’t attached to draft pick compensation after being dealt from the Cardinals to the Rangers midseason, while posted NPB stars Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga are both free of a qualifying offer as well. With both Sonny Gray and Aaron Nola already having signed long-term deals this offseason, a preference to avoid signing qualified free agents for their rotation would really only take Boston out of the running for left-hander Blake Snell, who rejected a QO from the Padres earlier this offseason. While the Red Sox have also reportedly been connected to two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani this offseason, previous reporting indicates that the club is no longer pursuing the offseason’s top free agent.

More from around MLB’s East divisions…

On the heels of a report earlier today that the Mariners are among the teams interested in Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes this offseason, Jon Morosi of MLB Network indicates that outfielder Randy Arozarena is also believed to have come up in discussions between the two clubs. There’s no indication that a deal between the sides is particularly close, as is the case with Paredes. That said, it’s noteworthy that the sides have discussed a deal around Arozarena, who Morosi described as “available” in trade. Earlier this week, reporting indicated that while teams have inquired after Arozarena, the Rays weren’t shopping the outfielder. Arozarena, 28, would be a particularly good fit for a Mariners club that lacks a surefire starting outfielder to pair with Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic. The 28-year-old slashed a strong .254/.364/.425 with 23 home runs and 22 stolen bases for the Rays this year en route to his first career All Star appearance.
The Mets appear focused on improving their run prevention as they enter the winter meetings, according to Will Sammon of The Athletic. Sammon notes that in addition to pitching additions, the club is hoping to improve their outfield defense this winter. KBO star Jung Hoo Lee is one player the club has interest in who could do just that, and Sammon suggests that free agent center fielder Michael A. Taylor could be another fit, though the 32-year-old is garnering plenty of interest around the league, per Sammon. Taylor had the strongest offensive season of his career since 2017 with the Twins in 2023, slashing .220/.278/.442 (96 wRC+) while clubbing a career-best 21 home runs in just 388 trips to the plate this year. Sammon goes on to suggest that adding a player who could contribute in center field is the easiest way for the club to improve its defense, as it would allow Brandon Nimmo to slide over to left field more often.

East Notes: Nationals, Mets, Rays

By Nick Deeds | December 2, 2023 at 6:04pm CDT

The Nationals finished the 2023 season with a 71-91 record that left them as one of the worst teams in the National League, even as it represented a substantial improvement over the club’s 107-loss 2022 campaign. While the club has sat out the top of the free agent market during the recent seasons of their rebuild, it seems that may not be the case this offseason as the club looks to upgrade at the infield corners and at DH, per TalkNats. The club has already been linked to a reunion with third baseman Jeimer Candelario, who was posting career-best numbers with the Nats prior to being dealt to the Cubs at the trade deadline. The report suggests that the club has interest in first baseman Rhys Hoskins and outfield/DH slugger Jorge Soler in addition to Candelario. The report goes on to indicate that Washington has been “very active” in the starting pitching market to this point in the offseason, though it does not connect any specific names to the club.

The rumored targets make sense for the Nationals. The club has a major hole at third base given that former top prospect Carter Kieboom has failed to establish himself the big league level. Kieboom’s .207/.266/.368 slash line (70 wRC+) in 2023 was largely in line with his career numbers of .199/.297/.301 (65 wRC+), and Candelario or another third base addition would almost certainly represent a significant upgrade over the 26-year-old. Meanwhile, an addition at first base or DH could help the club improve an offense that currently figures to use journeyman Joey Meneses at one position without an established starter at the other.

As for the rotation, the club has several interesting young arms such as Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore that they figure to prioritize developing, with veterans such as Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams who can reliably eat innings. That being said, the Nationals’ starting staff posted a combined 5.02 ERA last season, the sixth-worst figure in the majors. What’s more, the club’s 5.30 FIP in the rotation was better than only the lowly Rockies, while their starting staff combined for just 4.9 fWAR, better than only Colorado and Oakland. That leaves plenty of room for improvement if the club decides to add even a lower-level free agent such as Matthew Boyd or Frankie Montas to its rotation, to say nothing of a more impactful addition.

More from around MLB’s East divisions…

While the Mets have reportedly shifted their focus away from superstar free agent Shohei Ohtani, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the club is still looking at potential impact additions this offseason. They’ve long been connected to top-of-the-market arm Yoshinobu Yamamoto as they explore potential rotation upgrades, and Heyman adds that the Mets are looking into “nearly every available frontline starter” in addition to Yamamoto, including southpaws Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Eduardo Rodriguez. While Heyman notes the club is unlikely to land a rental arm such as Tyler Glasnow or Shane Bieber on the trade market, he does suggest the club’s interest in rotation upgrades extends to White Sox starter Dylan Cease, who is under team control for the next two seasons and has seen plenty of trade buzz this offseason. Rotation upgrades make plenty of sense for New York after the club shipped out veteran aces Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the trade deadline over the summer, leaving Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, and newly-signed righty Luis Severino as the club’s only rotation locks entering 2024.
The Rays have interest in a reunion with right-hander Cooper Criswell even after non-tendering him last month, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Criswell, 27, made his big league debut as a member of the Angels in 2021 with a one-game cup of coffee that lasted just 1 1/3 innings. He spent the past two seasons as a member of the Rays, with a 5.45 ERA and 5.00 FIP in 36 1/3 innings of work across 11 appearances. While those numbers are certainly nothing to write home about, Criswell’s ability to go multiple innings and 46.8% career groundball rate at the big league level could make him a worthwhile depth addition for a Rays club that relied on 40 different pitchers throughout the 2023 campaign.

Latest On Red Sox’s Pitching Targets

By Anthony Franco | November 27, 2023 at 11:06pm CDT

The Red Sox are known to be seeking top-of-the-rotation starting pitching. A pair of high-end starters, Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, have come off the board. There wasn’t any indication the Sox were deeply involved in the bidding for either right-hander. Sean McAdam of MassLive writes that the Sox have been seeking to add a starter via trade before turning to free agency.

At the same time, one notable trade candidate doesn’t appear to be strongly on their radar. McAdam reports that the Red Sox have not been actively involved in discussions with the White Sox regarding Dylan Cease. The right-hander has been mentioned as a target for the Dodgers and Braves and has surely drawn unreported interest from other teams seeking rotation help.

That Boston doesn’t seem as involved in Cease discussions is a bit of a surprise. He still has two seasons of arbitration control; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for an $8.8MM salary, a bargain price for a pitcher with his upside. Alongside Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber and Tyler Glasnow (the latter of whom seems unlikely to land within the AL East if the Rays trade him), Cease has been the subject of plenty of trade speculation.

The 27-year-old (28 next month) isn’t coming off a great season. Cease allowed 4.58 earned runs per nine, more than two runs above the 2.20 ERA he posted in 2022. A spike in hard contact and a slight dip in strikeout rate surely contributed to that less inspiring run prevention. Yet even with that downturn in whiffs, Cease still fanned an above-average 27.2% of batters faced behind an excellent 13.6% swinging strike percentage. His fastball averaged just under 96 MPH, while his slider remained a swing-and-miss offering.

While the Sox may be focused on trade targets aside from Cease, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and his front office are surely keeping an eye on the top hurlers on the open market. They’ve been tied to NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto and left-hander Jordan Montgomery. McAdam indicates the Sox also expressed some interest in Blake Snell when they met with the defending NL Cy Young winner’s representatives at the Boras Corporation during the GM Meetings.

Snell rode a laughably dominant second half to the second Cy Young of his career. He finished the year with an MLB-best 2.25 ERA across 180 innings. Snell led the majors with 99 walks but allowed only 5.8 hits per nine innings, the lowest mark for any qualified starter. That’s in large part thanks to a stellar 31.5% strikeout rate. MLBTR predicted Snell to land $200MM over seven seasons. He has also been linked to the Dodgers, Giants and incumbent Padres. McAdam suggests that Snell, a Seattle-area native, may prefer to sign with a West Coast team.

If that is indeed the case, that wouldn’t bode especially well for the Red Sox’s chances. The market’s other top southpaw, Montgomery, has a tie to the Northeast. While Montgomery is a South Carolina native, McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive note that he is spending the winter in Boston while his wife McKenzie begins a medical residency at a hospital in the area. It’s not clear if that’ll have any impact on his free agent preferences.

Red Sox Exploring Top Of Rotation Market

By Anthony Franco | November 16, 2023 at 9:18pm CDT

Starting pitching is a clear priority for the Red Sox. Boston’s new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow acknowledged as much last week, although they’re certainly not alone in that pursuit.

That could extend to the top end of the market. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote on Tuesday that the Sox were targeting front-line starting pitching. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests Boston is looking to add multiple starters this offseason. It stands to reason Breslow and his staff could look to pair an impact acquisition with a more affordable, if lower ceiling, addition.

Free agency offers a few possibilities. The Red Sox surely have some level of interest in Shohei Ohtani, but he wouldn’t be a factor in the 2024 rotation after his elbow procedure. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery are generally regarded as the next tier of free agent starters. AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray is probably below that group in earning power because he’s 34 years old but fits in terms of short-term impact.

This afternoon, Ian Browne of MLB.com suggested in an appearance on the ITM podcast that the Boston front office prefers Montgomery to Snell or Nola (Twitter link via Steve Perrault). Sox executives chatted with Montgomery’s representatives at the Boras Corporation during last week’s GM Meetings, although they’re presumably targeting multiple Boras clients to varying degrees. (Snell is also represented by the Boras Corp.)

Montgomery turned in a 3.20 ERA through 188 2/3 innings between the Cardinals and Rangers. It was third straight sub-4.00 showing over 30+ starts. Montgomery chipped in 31 frames of 2.90 ERA ball during Texas’ run to a World Series. During the regular season, the 30-year-old southpaw struck out a near-average 21.4% of opponents while keeping his walks to a tidy 6.2% clip.

He may not have the upside of Nola or Snell, each of whom misses more bats. Montgomery has better control than Snell and hasn’t had the spotty ERA or home run issues that have troubled Nola in two of the past three seasons, however. He also has the advantage of not requiring a signing team to surrender draft compensation. The midseason trade rendered Montgomery ineligible for the qualifying offer. Snell, Nola and Gray all received the QO. Yamamoto, of course, is not subject to the QO as a foreign professional.

Roster Resource projects the Sox for roughly $189MM in luxury tax commitments. That’s well below the $237MM base threshold, leaving plenty of potential spending room for Breslow and his staff. It’s also possible the Sox look to the trade market for rotation help. It’s difficult to envision the Rays trading Tyler Glasnow in division. Players like Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber could be available as they enter their final seasons of arbitration eligibility.

Boston’s current rotation mix is a high-variance unit. Nick Pivetta, Chris Sale, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock have all shown substantial upside.They also come with uncertainty to varying degrees. Houck and Whitlock might be better suited for relief. That could also be true of Pivetta, although he finished the 2023 season pitching very well over multiple innings. Sale has battled injuries and Bello seemed to wear down in the second half of his first full MLB season.

Blake Snell Wins National League Cy Young Award

By Darragh McDonald | November 15, 2023 at 5:45pm CDT

Free agent left-hander Blake Snell has been named the National League Cy Young Award winner for 2023, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Logan Webb of the Giants finished second in the voting while Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks finished third.

Snell, 31 next month, has now earned a Cy Young award for the second time in his career. The first trophy was in the American League, with Snell winning as a member of the Rays in 2018. He is just the seventh pitcher to win the award in both leagues, joining Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martínez, Max Scherzer, Gaylord Perry and Roy Halladay.

The left-handed Snell hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher in his career, with both his health and performance wobbling over the years, but his two award-winning campaigns have been excellent. His first trophy came after posting an earned run average of 1.89 with the Rays and this second piece of hardware was earned by posting a 2.25 for the Padres this year. His most recent campaign saw him walk 13.3% of batters faced but he danced around those by striking out 31.5% of his opponents and keeping the ball on the ground at a 44.4% clip. He probably had some help from the baseball gods as his .256 batting average on balls in play and 86.7% strand rate were both on the lucky side of average, but his punchouts and grounders surely helped him somewhat as well.

Outside of those two campaigns, the results have been far more mixed. He got to 180 innings pitched in his award-winning campaigns but hasn’t reached 130 in any other season. He also hasn’t posted an ERA lower than 3.24 in any of them.

Of course, that doesn’t matter for the Cy Young voting. It’s a single-season award and his year-to-year consistency is not something for the voters to consider. Snell’s voting wasn’t quite unanimous but he got 28 of the 30 first-place votes. But his overall track record will be of concern to the clubs considering signing him as a free agent. Pitchers with multiple Cy Youngs don’t hit free agency every day but it’s also incredibly rare for a pitcher to put so many runners on base without allowing them to score. Regardless of those concerns, MLBTR predicted Snell to land a contract of $200MM over seven years and he’s already garnering plenty of interest.

Webb had a 3.25 ERA in 216 innings for the Giants this year, which got him one of the first-place votes and 17 for second. Gallen had a 3.47 ERA in his 210 innings, which led to one first-place vote and three for second. In the full voting, which can be seen here, votes also went to Spencer Strider, Justin Steele, Zack Wheeler, Kodai Senga and Corbin Burnes.

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