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Blake Snell

Yankees, Padres Interested In Blake Snell

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The Yankees and Padres are two of the teams expressing interest in left-hander Blake Snell, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes (links to X).  Reports surfaced earlier this week that Snell was drawing interest from pitching-needy contenders, and New York and San Diego are the first clubs specifically known to gotten in touch with the Giants over Snell’s availability.

It remains to be seen if the Giants will actually move Snell, or be deadline sellers in any real capacity given that the team is still just 4.5 games out of a wild card berth.  Snell is himself a major factor in San Francisco’s renewed hopes of contention, as the southpaw has been almost untouchable since returning from the injured list.  Over his last four starts, Snell has a 0.75 ERA and a 35.7% strikeout rate, highlighted by a 15-strikeout gem of an outing against the Rockies yesterday.

This is the type of rotation-carrying production was what the Giants were hoping to receive when they signed the reigning Cy Young Award winner to a two-year, $62MM deal back in March.  However, Snell’s lengthy stint in free agency and subsequent lack of proper Spring Training work wreaked havoc on his performance, resulting in two IL stints (with an adductor strain and a groin strain) and a 9.51 ERA over his first six starts in a Giants uniform.

This recent injury history will obviously weigh on the minds of any team that does approach the Giants about a Snell trade, not to mention the fact that Snell can opt out of the second year (and $30MM salary) of his contract.  The presence of this opt-out clause means that Snell isn’t exactly a rental player, thus creating extra financial risk for an acquiring team, and some difficulty in working out an acceptable trade package with San Francisco.  Snell’s recent form increases the chances that he might exercise his player option, but if any more injury issues arise, Snell could pass on his opt-out and remain on the books for that hefty $30MM payday next year.

Snell is naturally a known quantity to the Padres after pitching with San Diego from 2021-23, but the financial aspect of a Snell trade is particularly noteworthy for a Padres team that is trying to remain under the luxury tax threshold this season, in order to reset its penalty status after two years of overages.  San Diego’s acquisition of Jason Adam from the Rays earlier today resulted in a pretty minor financial hit, though the Padres had to give up a hefty prospect package to obtain the reliever.  Payroll aside, there is also the broader fact that it seems rather unlikely that the Giants would trade Snell to a division rival.

The Bronx Bombers have long had Snell on their radar, and the six-year, $150MM offer Snell reportedly received from the Yankees in January is the highest contract known to be on the table for the left-hander during his elongated free agent market.  As Heyman notes, the luxury tax is also a factor given that New York has already topped the upper tier ($297MM) of tax penalties.  RosterResource estimates that the Yankees’ Competitive Balance Tax number is just shy of $312.9MM, and thus they would face a 110% tax on any further salaries added to their ledger.

Blake Snell Among Giants Drawing Trade Interest

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8:46pm: Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that five teams have shown some amount of interest in Snell.

10:22 am: The Giants have hovered around the National League Wild Card race for most of the year but slipped back recently, which could lead to them deciding to sell prior to Tuesday’s trade deadline. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic took a look at some possible trade candidates, reporting that left-hander Blake Snell is drawing significant trade interest. Earlier this week, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic listed Michael Conforto, Mike Yastrzemski and Wilmer Flores as bats that are available around the league. Baggarly also mentions right-hander Alex Cobb and lefty Taylor Rogers as candidates to be moved in the coming days.

San Francisco is currently 49-55, which only puts them 5.5 games back of the nearest playoff spot, but they would have to pull away from the Cubs and then pass the Reds, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Cardinals and Padres in order to get into postseason position. They’re not totally buried but the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them just an 11.5% shot of getting in while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are even less optimistic at 5.6%. With that kind of Hail Mary window, it’s logical that the Giants would look into shifting their priorities to optimizing next year’s team, which would mean making some players available now.

It’s unsurprising that Snell would draw significant trade interest, though his trade candidacy would have complications. He’s one of the top pitchers in baseball when at his best, which is why he has two Cy Young awards on his mantel. That includes getting last year’s National League trophy when he posted a 2.25 earned run average over 32 starts with the Padres.

But 2024 has been far less smooth. Despite his excellent 2023 campaign, he lingered in free agency for a long time and didn’t sign with the Giants until the middle of March. After a quick ramp-up, he made three rough starts before landing on the injured list with a left adductor strain. He returned from the IL and had three more bad outings before returning to the IL in early June with a left groin strain. At that time, he had an ERA of 9.51 in those six starts.

He has since returned and been in much better form. He shut out the Blue Jays and then the Twins before allowing two earned runs against the Dodgers. Those three better starts have reduced his ERA to 5.83 for the year.

Despite the inconsistent results this year, some clubs would surely be willing to bank on his track record and recent return to form. However, his contract adds another layer of complication. He signed a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants that allows him to opt-out at season’s end.

Trading players with such provisions is usually a tricky proposition, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored in a piece for Front Office subscribers and it’s a situation that Giant fans are likely familiar with from the Carlos Rodón saga from a few years ago. Despite having a dominant season for a middling Giants club, Rodón wasn’t moved at the deadline as he had an upcoming opt-out that seemed to ward off potential buyers.

Players in such situations are mostly downside for the acquiring club. If the player performs well, they will leave, making them a rental in a best-case scenario. If they perform poorly or get hurt, they will stick around and keep their notable salary on the books. Surrendering notable prospects for such an arrangement is often an unattractive proposition and the selling club might not want to give up a star player for an uninspiring return.

Snell’s contract consists of a $15MM salary this year and a $17MM signing bonus that Baggarly notes is not transferable to a trade partner. There’s a $30MM player option for 2025 that Snell could trigger if he finishes the season poorly or is injured, but he could also opt-out if he finishes strong. Those complications might soften the offers but demand for pitching is expected to outstrip supply, especially in terms of front-of-the-rotation type arms, so perhaps the Giants will get some intriguing calls.

It makes sense that the Giants would listen to offers to see if they could get that contract off their books while also recouping some younger talent. Even without Snell, next year’s rotation could consist of Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison, Robbie Ray and Jordan Hicks, with Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn perhaps back in the mix if their health allows. Prospect Carson Whisenhunt has reached Triple-A while the club also has Mason Black, Hayden Birdsong, Landen Roupp and Kai-Wei Teng on the 40-man roster.

Sticking with the rotation, Cobb is a more straightforward trade candidate in the sense that he’s an impending free agent. Even though he underwent hip surgery in October, the Giants picked up his $10MM option for this year in the hopes that he wouldn’t miss that much time. Unfortunately, his return has been slowed by some elbow and shoulder issues and still hasn’t pitched in the majors this season.

He has been rehabbing of late and tossed five shutout innings at the Triple-A level on Saturday. Baggarly notes that he could be reinstated and pitch for the Giants on Sunday, which would essentially be a pre-deadline showcase for interested clubs. The injury issues from this year will likely give clubs some hesitation but Cobb is an established veteran with a 3.85 ERA over 230 career starts. As recently as last year, he was able to toss 151 1/3 innings with a 3.87 ERA.

As for the bats, Rosenthal mentioned Flores as a trade candidate on Wednesday but the Giants put him on the IL the next day due to right knee tendonitis. Players on the IL can still be traded but he is also having a down season, hitting .206/.277/.318 for a wRC+ of 71. He’s making $6.5MM this year and then has a dual player/team option for 2025. He first has to decide on a $3.5MM player option and then, if he declines, the team would have an $8.5MM option available. Given his down season, he might be inclined to pick up his end of the deal rather than going to free agency.

Conforto is a straightforward trade candidate since he’s an impending free agent. He signed a two-year, $36MM deal going into 2023 and then declined to opt out after hitting a league-average .239/.334/.384 last year. He started out well this year but has tapered off. He was hitting .280/.331/.490 when he landed on the IL on May 12 due to a right hamstring strain. Since coming off the IL in early June, he’s hitting .165/.262/.331.

Yastrzemski can be retained via arbitration through next year, but there’s logic in considering trades now. He’ll turn 34 next month and is making $7.9MM, meaning he could be looking for an eight-figure salary in arbitration next year. He’s been a consistently solid player during his career on both sides of the ball. He has hit .241/.326/.458 for a wRC+ of 114 while racking up 35 Defensive Runs Saved and seven Outs Above Average. Per FanGraphs, he’s been worth at least 1.6 wins above replacement in every previous season of his career and is currently at 1.3 fWAR this year.

Even without Conforto and Yastrzemski, the Giants could go into next year with an outfield mix consisting of Jung Hoo Lee, Heliot Ramos and Luis Matos with guys like Derek Hill, Tyler Fitzgerald and Wade Meckler also in the mix.

As for Rogers, he’s in the second season of a three-year, $33MM deal he signed with the Giants. He has continued to pitch well and the Giants could keep him for next year, but moving now might also make sense. He has a 2.27 ERA this year but that’s largely propped up by an unsustainable 84.1% strand rate. His 25.6% strikeout rate is his worst since 2017 and he’ll be turning 34 this winter.

Teams generally sign free agents looking for most production in the beginning of the deal, with the later years a pill they swallow as the price of doing business. If there’s a way for them to wriggle out of the last season of the Rogers pact, they might consider taking it. Such a move could potentially free up some cash, bring back some young talent or both. It would create a hole in next year’s bullpen but relievers are often viewed as volatile and fairly replaceable.

All together, the Giants make for an interesting late entry into a market that has been perceived to have a lack of sellers. As laid out by Baggarly, the club could try to duck under the competitive balance tax in the days to come but it would be difficult to do. RosterResource estimates they are currently just above $253MM, more than $16MM above the $237MM base threshold. They would effectively have to find takers for all the money owed to Snell, Rogers, Conforto, Yastrzemski and Cobb to dip under and therefore might be focused on prospect capital between now and the July 30 deadline.

Giants Designate Nick Ahmed For Assignment

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The Giants announced a series of roster moves today, with left-hander Blake Snell as well as infielders Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada all reinstated from the injured list. One spot on the active roster was already opened when they traded outfielder Austin Slater to the Reds. They opened two more by optioning left-hander Kolton Ingram and designating shortstop Nick Ahmed for assignment. The latter move drops the 40-man roster count to 39.

Ahmed signed with San Francisco on a minor league deal early in Spring Training. The longtime Diamondback essentially took over for Brandon Crawford as a glove-first veteran shortstop. Ahmed hit well during exhibition play and made the roster, locking in a reported $1.5MM base salary in the process. He picked up the Opening Day nod at shortstop — the first time a player other than Crawford got that honor since Miguel Tejada back in 2011 — and went on to start 50 games overall.

As is typically the case with Ahmed, virtually all of his contributions came on defense. Statcast credited him as four runs better than average across 426 innings. Defensive Runs Saved was less bullish, grading him one run below par. He hit in the bottom third of the batting order and ran a .232/.278/.303 slash line with one homer over 172 plate appearances.

Ahmed is a two-time Gold Glove winner who has been one of the sport’s preeminent defensive shortstops throughout his career. While he’s still a good defender, his numbers have taken a step back from elite levels as he has gotten into his mid 30s. Ahmed has never been much of an offensive threat and has particularly struggled over the past few seasons. Since the start of the 2021 campaign, he owns a .222/.273/.330 line in a little more than 900 trips.

Estrada’s return from the IL will likely push Brett Wisely from second base to shortstop, at least against right-handed pitching. Righty hitting Tyler Fitzgerald is in the lineup tonight against Toronto southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. While the 25-year-old Wisely is stretched defensively at shortstop, he provides a higher offensive ceiling than Ahmed brought. Wisely owns a decent .278/.313/.421 slash through 135 plate appearances in his second MLB campaign.

The Giants have five days to trade Ahmed or place him on waivers. He has well over five years of MLB service time and would retain his entire salary if he clears waivers and becomes a free agent. A release is the likeliest outcome. Once Ahmed clears waivers, he could sign with another team for the prorated portion of the $740K minimum.

Meanwhile, Snell returns for his first MLB action in nearly six weeks. San Francisco’s late signing could hardly have gone worse to this point. Snell has battled groin issues throughout the year and been limited to six starts. Opponents have teed off on the defending NL Cy Young winner for a 9.51 earned run average through 23 2/3 innings. Snell will try to get his season on track when he takes on the Blue Jays this evening.

Giants Chairman Discusses Deadline, Signings, “Inconsistent” First Half

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With a 40-44 record, the Giants sit in fourth place in the NL West but also still within striking distance of the playoffs, as San Francisco is 3.5 games out of the last National League wild card slot.  Several other teams within the congested NL are in this same half-in, half-out status of semi-contention, though expectations were certainly higher in the Bay Area after the Giants spent over $324MM on free agents this past offseason.

Team chairman Greg Johnson is still optimistic that the best is yet to come for the Giants, though he admitted in an interview this week with the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser that the club’s play has been “very inconsistent.”

“I think we have to be a little patient through this period where you get frustrated when you watch every day,” Johnson said.  “We also have to take into account that we’ve been hit with injuries in very key places, and when you try to muddle through with a two-man rotation, it’s pretty difficult….We’ve had slow starts in games. We can’t seem to get on starting pitching, we always seem to be trying to play catch-up.  But on the positive side, the clubhouse vibe seems to be good despite the injuries, and I think if we can stay relevant the next couple of weeks, we’re going to be in great shape in the second half.”

Thirteen players are currently on the Giants’ injured list, ranging from season-ending issues like Jung Hoo Lee’s shoulder surgery to a couple of injuries (to Thairo Estrada and Wilmer Flores) that have arose even in the few days since Slusser’s interview with Johnson was published.  As Johnson simply put it, “it’s tough when you watch the team take the field — that’s not the team we thought would be out there.”

The sheer volume of personnel on the IL does hint at further upside for the roster, since Johnson says “we probably have the biggest lift (with returning injured players) of any team out there.”  This in itself could provide more of a natural roster reinforcement than anything San Francisco could add at the trade deadline, though whether or not enough players will be back by July 30 adds another wrinkle to the club’s future plans.

Johnson demurred most talk about the deadline, saying that was the purview of president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi.  However, the chairman downplayed the idea of a splashy midseason trade, saying “we’re going to look and see what’s available, but we’re not that optimistic that the market will bear much fruit with so many teams in contention right now, and the cost of getting players and giving up a lot of young talent.”  Should a situation emerge where the Giants could add a player by boosting their approximately $254MM, Johnson said “I think we do” have that type of financial flexibility.

It has been no secret that the Giants were trying to add superstars (and thus a larger payroll) to their roster for the last several years, as per their pursuits of Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, and other big-ticket stars in free agency.  Last winter’s spending spree was headlined by Lee’s six-year, $113MM deal, though the Giants were able to score a pair of notable less-pricey deals late in the offseason with a pair of shorter-term, opt-out heavy deals with Blake Snell and Matt Chapman.  As a result, San Francisco is now over the luxury tax threshold for the first time since 2017, though their estimated $254MM figure puts them under the secondary tax tier of $257MM.

In regards to the Giants’ spending capacity in general, Johnson said “We don’t go in with any set number — here’s the cap, here’s the target.  Things change, and being able to get someone of Blake Snell’s caliber and you look at your areas of vulnerability and with a lot of untested pitchers, that was a reason to go out and spend beyond the luxury tax. You want to be nimble and opportunistic and having Blake still available kind of pushed us over that [luxury tax] range.”

Seen as relative bargains at the time, the signings of Chapman (three years, $54MM with two opt-outs) and Snell (two years, $62MM with an opt-out after the season) haven’t gone to plan.  Chapman is at least on the field and providing his customary excellent third base defense, even if his hitting has been only decent.  Snell, on the other hand, has battled through a nightmare of a season that has included two IL stints and a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings pitched.

Because Snell didn’t sign until March 19, he didn’t have the benefit of any kind of normal Spring Training routine, as the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner’s preseason work was limited to his own personal training regiment and some sim games after he officially joined the Giants.  Snell’s struggles have been so overwhelming that it seems to have led to a policy change within the team, as “signing someone late isn’t something we’d do again, especially with a pitcher,” Johnson said.

“I think that shows you how important Spring Training is, especially for pitchers….We felt a veteran like him could be ready pretty quickly.  I’m sure he’s pretty frustrated as well.  You want him to feel like he’s 100 percent when he’s out there, and he wants to feel like he’s 100 percent.”

While it is a little surprising to hear a team executive make such a firm declaration, it isn’t all that controversial given that Snell himself has gone on record with his regrets over his lack of a normal offseason ramp-up.  It should be noted that Johnson didn’t regard Snell’s signing as a mistake, since there is still time this season for Snell to return and contribute, not to mention in the second year of his deal in 2025 (since an opt-out is looking increasingly unlikely).

All in all, Johnson’s statements don’t much differ from the comments of other front office officials or executives in recent weeks, as so much of the league is still in wait-and-see mode with a month to go before the deadline.  It is certainly possible the Giants could be more aggressive in adding talent if they go on a hot streak in July, though remaining under .500 (and falling more definitively out of a playoff race) could motivate Zaidi to reload for 2025 and move some veteran players at the deadline.  Or, given how San Francisco surely plans to contend next year, the Giants could pursue a combination of both buying and selling at the deadline, rather than one specific path.

Giants Notes: Snell, Harrison, Cobb

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The Giants have suffered a tough run of injuries to their starting rotation of late, and with six starters on the injured list only Logan Webb and Jordan Hicks are currently in the San Francisco rotation as true full-time starters, although Spencer Howard and Hayden Birdsong have filled in to allow the Giants to cobble together a four-man rotation. Fortunately, it appears that could be changing in the near future as Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle reported earlier today that southpaws Blake Snell and Kyle Harrison are both making progress towards returns from injuries.

Of the pair, Harrison appears to be closer to a return. The southpaw found himself shelved a little less than two weeks ago due to a right ankle sprain, although the issue proved minor enough that it appears he’ll be ready to return after something close to a minimum stay on the shelf. Per Rubin, the club’s current plan is for Harrison to throw a bullpen session on Wednesday before eyeing a start sometime during the club’s road trip against the Braves and Guardians that wraps up on July 8. That should leave the Giants to turn over the rotation just once more before Harrison rejoins the group.

After making seven starts with the club down the stretch last year, Harrison stepped into the club’s rotation on Opening Day this year alongside Webb, Hicks, Snell, and Keaton Winn. The 22-year-old has generally performed decently in what will be his first full big league season with a roughly league average 3.96 ERA and matching 3.95 FIP through 77 1/3 inning of work spread across 14 starts. While the lefty has only struck out 20.6% of batters faced this year, he’s limited walks to a strong 6.7% clip while generating grounders at a decent 42.1% rate. While the lefty’s pedigree certainly suggests that he could take a step forward at some point, even that stable back-end production would be a huge boost to a San Francisco rotation that has gotten the second-fewest innings out of its starting rotation in the majors this year.

Snell, meanwhile, appears likely to rejoin the Giants after Harrison but has a more concrete plan for his return in place. Per Rubin, the reigning NL Cy Young award winner is scheduled to make a final rehab start on Wednesday before rejoining the rotation on July 10 against the Blue Jays. After being limited to just six starts in the first half by multiple groin injuries while struggling to a 9.51 ERA and 4.63 FIP across those 23 2/3 innings of work where he was healthy enough to take the mound, both Snell and the Giants are surely hoping that the lefty can turn his season around when he returns to action.

While San Francisco was surely hoping for more when they inked Snell to a two-year, $62MM contract back in March, it’s not at all difficult to imagine the southpaw, who boasts a 2.72 ERA and 3.17 FIP with a 31.7% strikeout rate in 56 starts from 2022-23, turning things around in the second half and helping to anchor the top of the Giants rotation alongside Webb. Given his tough start to the season, it’s nearly impossible to imagine Snell opting out of the second year of his deal at this point barring a sensational second half on the level of the one he enjoyed last year, when he posted a 1.43 ERA and 3.12 FIP in his final 15 starts of the season.

Meanwhile, veteran right-hander Alex Cobb is also working his way back from injury after undergoing hip surgery last offseason that delayed his start to the 2024 campaign. He was expected to rejoin the Giants at some point in May, but ended up halting his throwing program due to discomfort in his shoulder in the middle of last month. The righty finally appears poised to get into game action, however, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle noted this afternoon that Cobb is set to make a rehab start with Single-A San Jose tomorrow.

That’s a key step for the 36-year-old as he looks to return to action for the Giants. The veteran righty has been a very valuable asset for the club in recent years when healthy enough to take the mound, pitching to a 3.80 ERA and a 3.41 FIP in 301 innings of work since the start of his Giants tenure back in 2022. He and veteran lefty Robbie Ray could both impact the club’s rotation at some point later this season, offering internal rotation depth as the season wears on and they get closer to returns from their respective injuries.

Giants Place Keaton Winn, Mike Yastrzemski On Injured List

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The Giants announced some roster moves this morning, including the news that right-hander Keaton Winn and outfielder Mike Yastrzemski have both been sidelined with injuries.  Winn has been placed on the 15-day IL with inflammation in his throwing elbow, while Yastrzemski is headed to the 10-day IL with a left oblique strain.  Both placements are retroactive to June 21.  Outfielder Luis Matos and infielder David Villar were called up from Triple-A in corresponding moves, and the Giants also sent utilityman Tyler Fitzgerald to Triple-A.

Yastrzemski left Thursday’s game due to his strain, and while oblique problems are known to have fluid timelines, the outfielder told the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser (all links to X) that he doesn’t think he’ll miss much if any time beyond the minimum 10 days.  After a very slow start to his season, Yastrzemski’s bat has started to heat up over the last few weeks, bringing him to an above-average 104 wRC+ and a .224/.304/.406 slash line over 215 plate appearances.

Yaz has been the Giants’ regular right fielder when a right-handed pitcher is on the mound, but his absence will leave the team short on left-handed bats as a whole, with LaMonte Wade Jr. is also on the IL and Jung Ho Lee is gone for the season.  It isn’t an ideal situation for a team that likes to play matchups as much as the Giants, though Matos can help fill the void in the outfield overall, even though Matos is another right-handed hitter.

This is the second time Winn has visited the IL this season, as a forearm strain put him on the shelf for four weeks.  He had made three starts since his last activation from the 15-day, though the righty has struggled both before and after his IL stint, posting a 7.16 ERA across 55 1/3 innings.

As much as the Giants were hoping Winn could become a solid rotation piece in his first full Major League season, health is now the bigger question for the 26-year-old.  Winn missed the entire 2021 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, so a pair of injuries to his forearm/elbow area in quick succession certainly is a big cause for concern.  Past health history notwithstanding, it is also possible Winn’s current issue is just some basic soreness that can be cleared up with 15 days of rest and rehab.

Logan Webb and Jordan Hicks are now the only two healthy starters in San Francisco’s rotation, though both Blake Snell and Robbie Ray will pitch in rehab work for Triple-A Sacramento on Sunday.  Giants manager Bob Melvin told Slusser and other reporters that Snell might just need the one rehab start before being activated from the 15-day IL, if all goes well.  Kyle Harrison is rehabbing from a sprained ankle and might not need any rehab work after being placed on the IL last weekend with an ankle sprain.

2024-25 Player Option/Opt-Out Preview: June Edition

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We’re two months into the 2024 season, meaning more than a third of the schedule has already elapsed. While there are still plenty of games remaining, there are enough in the books to affect the market of the upcoming free agent class.

That’s particularly true for players who can opt out of their current contracts. Player ages are for the 2025 season.

  • Cody Bellinger (29): Can opt out of final two years and $52.5MM on three-year guarantee

Bellinger didn’t find the $200MM+ offer he was seeking last winter. As with a few other high-profile Boras Corporation clients (more on them in a minute), he pivoted to a short-term deal that allowed him to return to free agency next winter. Bellinger is arguably out to the best start of the bunch and seems on track to head back to the open market. He can earn a salary of $27.5MM in 2025 or take a $2.5MM buyout. If he decides to stay with the Cubs, he’ll then get to choose between a $25MM salary for 2026 or a $5MM buyout.

The lefty-hitting center fielder has a .265/.325/.459 line with eight homers over 203 plate appearances. His 15.8% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk percentage are on par with last year’s levels. Bellinger is again succeeding despite a below-average 33.8% hard contact rate. He’s not performing at quite the same pace he did in 2023, but the overall profile remains the same: good contact skills with the ability to play center field and mediocre batted ball metrics.

It could set up another winter where Bellinger’s exit velocities are the subject of plenty of debate. Perhaps his camp will need to lower their asking price in the early stages of his free agency, but the initial decision to opt out would be a straightforward one if he continues at this pace. He’d still be fairly young for a free agent at 29. Now two seasons removed from his dismal 2021-22 production, he also wouldn’t be saddled with a qualifying offer. Bellinger received the QO last winter, so he cannot receive another in his career.

  • Matt Chapman (32): Can opt out of final two years and $36MM on three-year guarantee

Chapman also settled for a short-term deal after a tough finish to the 2023 season. The defensive stalwart inked a three-year, $54MM contract with the Giants early in Spring Training. He has a $17MM player option for next season and an $18MM player option for the ’26 campaign if he doesn’t take the first opt-out. There’s a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for 2027 as well.

Over 60 games in San Francisco, he’s hitting .238/.307/.411 with eight home runs. That’s slightly better than average production in this season’s diminished run environment. By measure of wRC+, Chapman has been nine percentage points better than average at the plate — right in line with his usual level. He’s putting the ball in play more than he ever had before, but he’s sacrificing a few walks and some of his typically huge exit velocities to do so. While this would probably be enough for Chapman to head back to free agency in search of a three- or four-year deal, it’s not likely to result in the nine-figure contract that seemingly wasn’t on the table last offseason.

  • Gerrit Cole (34): Can opt out of final four years and $144MM on nine-year guarantee; team can override by exercising a $36MM option for 2029 if Cole declines his end

As recently as a few months ago, this decision looked preordained. Cole, coming off a Cy Young win and probably the best pitcher in baseball, would trigger the opt-out — only for the Yankees to override it by exercising a $36MM option for 2029. Boras suggested as much in a chat with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale in December.

His status has at least been somewhat complicated by elbow inflammation that arose during Spring Training. Cole has spent the entire season on the 60-day injured list; he’ll begin a minor league rehab stint tonight. If he looks like his typical self in the second half, this’ll probably be an easy call for Cole and the Yankees alike. If he struggles or, more worryingly, battles any other elbow concerns, he’d need to more seriously consider hanging onto the final four years and $144MM on his record free agent deal.

  • Nathan Eovaldi (35): Conditional $20MM option if Eovaldi reaches 156 innings pitched or based on Cy Young/All-Star results

Eovaldi’s $34MM deal with the Rangers contained a conditional option for 2025 that went into effect if he threw at least 300 innings in the first two seasons. He logged 144 frames a year ago, meaning he needed 156 this season. Eovaldi lost three weeks to a groin strain. He has made nine starts and thrown 50 innings so far, leaving him 106 shy of the vesting threshold. With another 18-20 turns through the rotation, it’s still doable, but any other injuries would essentially rule it out.

He could also kick in the option with a top-five finish in Cy Young balloting or a top seven Cy Young finish and an All-Star selection. While he’s pitching very well, the Cy Young provision only comes into play if he falls short of 156 innings. Placing that high without reaching 156 frames is a tall task.

Even if he were to vest the option, Eovaldi may well prefer to head back to free agency in search of a multi-year deal. While he’ll be 35, he still looks the part of an upper mid-rotation starter. Eovaldi has followed up a 3.63 ERA during his first season in Arlington with a 2.70 mark to this point. His fastball is sitting around 96 MPH and he has punched out more than 26% of opposing hitters with a ground-ball rate north of 50%. There’ll always be lingering durability questions given his age and two previous Tommy John surgeries, yet on talent, Eovaldi is one of the better pitchers who could be available.

  • Wilmer Flores (33): $3.5MM player option; team can override by exercising an $8.5MM option if Flores declines his end

In September 2022, the Giants signed Flores to a $16.5MM extension. He has a $3.5MM option for next season; if he declines, the Giants could keep him around by picking up an $8.5MM salary. Flores had arguably the best year of his career in 2023, drilling a personal-high 23 homers with a .284/.355/.509 slash line. The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction this season. He has only one longball with a .207/.276/.283 mark in 163 trips to the plate. Flores’ strikeout and walk profile haven’t changed, but his contact quality has plummeted.

A full season of replacement level production would make it likely that Flores takes the $3.5MM salary. There’s still time for him to find his power stroke, though.

Giolito is likely to take a $19MM salary from the Red Sox next year. The typically durable right-hander suffered a UCL injury during his second Spring Training appearance with Boston. He underwent an internal brace procedure and will miss the entire season. While he could be ready for the start of next season, he’d be hard-pressed to match a $19MM salary coming off the elbow procedure.

Opting in would trigger a conditional team/mutual option for the 2026 season, though. If Giolito doesn’t top 140 innings next year, the Sox would have a $14MM option (with a $1.5MM buyout) for ’26. Giolito would convert that to a $19MM mutual option by reaching the 140-inning plateau.

  • Mitch Haniger (34): Can opt out of final year and $15.5MM on three-year guarantee

The Giants signed Haniger to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent deal two winters back. That allowed him to opt out of the final season’s $15.5MM salary. Haniger’s time in the Bay Area was a disappointment. A broken arm limited him to 61 games and he didn’t hit well when healthy. San Francisco dealt him back to the Mariners last offseason in a change-of-scenery swap involving Robbie Ray and Anthony DeSclafani.

Haniger is the only member of that trio who has played in 2024. (Ray is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, while DeSclafani was flipped to the Twins and ultimately required elbow surgery himself.) The veteran outfielder hasn’t hit in his return to the Pacific Northwest. He carries a .221/.282/.349 line with six homers and a strikeout rate approaching 28% in 213 plate appearances. He’s trending towards sticking around.

  • Rhys Hoskins (32): Can opt out of final year and $18MM on two-year guarantee

Hoskins inked a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers after losing all of 2023 to an ACL tear. He landed in a favorable hitting environment in Milwaukee with a chance to prove he was back to his typical offensive form. Hoskins has done just that over the season’s first two months, connecting on 10 homers with a .243/.345/.486 line through 168 trips. He’s well on his way to opting out and would be one of the top offensive players in next year’s free agent class. The Brewers could make him a qualifying offer.

The Dodgers brought back the future Hall of Famer, who is rehabbing from an offseason shoulder procedure. His deal contains a 2025 player option with a $5MM base value and significant escalators. It’d jump to $7MM if he makes six starts this season, $3MM apiece for each of his seventh through ninth start, and another $4MM if he starts 10 games. Performance bonuses could push his 2025 salary as high as $25MM.

It’s likely Kershaw will exercise the option regardless of where the specific value winds up. He has been throwing but has yet to begin a rehab stint. A return relatively early in the season’s second half — which would give him a chance to get to 10 starts — is still in play.

Manaea opted out of a $12.5MM salary last winter and landed a two-year, $28MM pact from the Mets. He’s been a rare bright spot in a dismal season in Queens. Over 11 starts, the southpaw has tossed 57 innings of 3.63 ERA ball. He has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate behind an 11.2% swinging strike percentage. Manaea’s 9.9% walk rate is a personal high, but he’s looked the part of a decent mid-rotation starter.

If he continues at this pace, he’d likely forego next year’s $13.5MM salary and hit the market for a third straight winter. Manaea will be heading into his age-33 campaign and could look for a two- or three-year pact (potentially the final multi-year deal of his career). Even if wouldn’t dramatically improve on his annual salary, pitchers like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have gotten multi-year deals in their mid-30s for mid-rotation work.

Cincinnati guaranteed Martinez $26MM over two seasons — $14MM this year with a $12MM option for 2025. That investment made it appear the Reds would give him an extended look in the rotation. They’ve instead kept him in the swing role which he played for most of his time with the Padres. Martinez has started five of 13 games, posting a 4.20 ERA across 49 1/3 innings. He has a microscopic 0.76 ERA from the bullpen but has been rocked for a 7.36 mark out of the rotation.

On the surface, Martinez’s production doesn’t seem all that eye-catching. It’s not too dissimilar to Manaea’s work in a swing role with the Giants in 2023, though. Manaea turned in a 4.44 ERA while starting 10 of 37 games with San Francisco. He declined a $12.5MM player option and found a multi-year deal with a team willing to give him a rotation spot. Martinez (like Manaea, a Boras Corp. client) has opted out of multi-year commitments from San Diego in each of the last two offseasons. He’d probably do the same next winter if his performance doesn’t dramatically turn.

Montgomery agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks just days before the start of the regular season. He landed a $25MM salary for this year and a conditional player option for 2025. The condition — making 10 MLB starts — would only not come into play if the southpaw suffered a significant injury. Montgomery is already two starts away from vesting the option. Its value would escalate to $25MM if he gets to 23 starts.

The 31-year-old certainly anticipated declining that option and trying his hand again in free agency. He’s been hit hard through his first eight starts in the desert, though. Montgomery has been tagged for a 5.48 earned run average across 44 1/3 innings. While he’s still showing good control, his strikeout rate has plummeted seven points to a poor 14.4% rate. His four-seam and sinker are each averaging less than 92 MPH after sitting around 93.5 MPH last season. Perhaps Montgomery is still shaking off rust related to his delayed start to the year, yet his early performance could make the option decision tougher than he expected.

The Reds signed Pagán to a two-year, $16MM contract with the ability to collect a $250K buyout in lieu of an $8MM salary next season. It was an odd fit considering Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home park and Pagán’s longstanding trouble with the longball. His first 21 appearances as a Red have been fine. He owns a 4.19 ERA across 19 1/3 innings. The righty has a customarily strong 30.5% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk percentage. He has surrendered four homers.

Pagán, who is currently on the 15-day injured list with triceps tightness, has performed about as the Reds probably anticipated. This one can still go either way, but an $8MM salary for his age-34 season feels about right for his market value.

  • Wandy Peralta (33): Can opt out of final three years and $12.65MM on four-year guarantee

The Padres surprisingly signed Peralta to a four-year deal as a means of reducing the contract’s luxury tax hit. The veteran southpaw has been effective, turning in a 2.66 ERA across 23 2/3 innings. Peralta doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s an excellent ground-ball specialist (55.6% this season, 53.1% for his career). Even though he’s pitching well, it’d be somewhat surprising to see him walk away from another three years and almost $13MM covering his age 33-35 seasons.

  • Robbie Ray (33): Can opt out of final two years and $50MM on five-year guarantee

Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract with the Mariners allowed him to bypass the final two seasons valued at $25MM annually. Ray had a solid, if not overwhelming, first season in Seattle. His elbow gave out after one start in year two. Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. The Mariners offloaded the final three years of his contract in the Haniger trade with the Giants.

The former AL Cy Young winner is targeting a return around the All-Star Break. He has been throwing from a mound and could head on a rehab stint in the coming days. Odds are against an opt-out right now, but a dominant second half could change the calculus.

The Royals signed Renfroe to a surprisingly strong two-year, $13MM deal. The righty-hitting outfielder was coming off a middling .233/.297/.416 showing between the Angels and Reds a year ago. He has had a very rough start to his Kansas City tenure, hitting .178/.256/.309 with only four homers in 168 plate appearances. It’d take a major reversal in the season’s final few months for him to forego a $7.5MM salary.

The Giants jumped in late on Chapman and even later to grab the defending NL Cy Young winner. Snell signed a two-year, $62MM guarantee two weeks before Opening Day. The hope for everyone involved was that he’d collect the first $32MM and pitch well enough to pass on next season’s $30MM option.

Snell’s first two months in the Bay Area couldn’t have gone much worse. He has battled groin issues throughout the season. Snell lost around a month with an adductor (groin) strain between April and May. He went back on the 15-day IL last night. He has taken the ball six times and been rocked for a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings. Needless to say, he’ll need a much better final four months to go back to free agency.

The Renfroe deal wasn’t the only surprising two-year pact with an opt-out that the Royals signed last winter. They signed Stratton, a generally solid middle reliever, to an $8MM deal containing a $4.5MM option for next season. The right-hander was coming off a 3.92 ERA performance across 82 2/3 innings out of the St. Louis and Texas bullpens.

He hasn’t been as effective for the Royals, allowing 5.76 earned runs per nine through 25 frames. Stratton’s strikeout rate is down a few points to 21.7%, but the much bigger issue is an uncharacteristic inability to find the zone. He has walked almost 16% of batters faced, more than doubling last season’s rate.

  • Justin Verlander (42): Conditional $35MM option if Verlander reaches 140 innings pitched

Verlander would unlock a $35MM player option if he throws 140 innings this season. While he was delayed to start the year by shoulder discomfort, he has logged 52 innings in nine starts since his return. Barring another injury, he’ll throw more than 88 innings over the season’s final four months.

At 41, Verlander is still pitching well — a 3.63 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate — but he’s not operating at Cy Young form. If he continues at this pace all season, matching a $35MM salary on the open market is unlikely. Verlander seems comfortable in Houston and would probably prefer to stick with the Astros, though that may depend on whether the team plays better before the deadline. Verlander approved a trade from the Mets back to Houston last summer when it became clear that New York wasn’t going to be a legitimate World Series contender during his contract. At 27-34, the Astros need to turn things around quickly to put themselves in position for an eighth straight trip to the ALCS.

Wacha landed in Kansas City on a two-year commitment with matching $16MM salaries and the opportunity to head back to free agency after year one. The veteran righty is pitching well enough to make that a consideration. He owns a 4.24 ERA across 12 starts and 68 innings. That’s a run higher than his ERA of the past two seasons, but the general profile remains the same.

He throws strikes with slightly below-average whiff rates. He has thrown between 120-140 innings in each of the last three seasons and looks on his way to matching or surpassing that in 2024. Opting out in search of another two-year deal in the $30MM range is plausible.

Giants Place Blake Snell On Injured List

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June 3: As expected, the Giants announced today that Snell has been placed on the 15-day IL with a left groin strain. Outfielder Michael Conforto was reinstated from the IL as the corresponding move.

June 2: Blake Snell’s nightmare of a season looks to be taking him back to the injured list, as the Giants left-hander had to leave today’s start against the Yankees due to left groin tightness.  Snell had thrown 4 2/3 innings and the first two pitches of an at-bat against Alex Verdugo before he had to depart after a visit from the team trainer.  Speaking with NBC Sports Bay Area and other media post-game, Giants manager Bob Melvin indicated Snell will almost surely be placed back on the 15-day IL, and a fuller timeline might be known when Snell undergoes an MRI tomorrow.

A similar injury led to Snell’s initial IL placement back on April 23, as he ended up missing almost exactly a month of action due to a left adductor strain.  Today marked Snell’s third start back in action, and he again didn’t have much success, finishing with three earned runs over his 4 2/3 frames.

The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner now has a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings since signing a two-year, $62MM free agent deal with San Francisco on March 19.  Since Snell didn’t sign until just a week prior to Opening Day, his preseason work consisted of extended Spring Training and simulated games, and the rust has been pretty evident since he made his Giants debut on April 8.  It isn’t a stretch to say that these twin groin/adductor injuries might also stem from Snell not being entirely ramped up for the start of his season, though he did look great in his rehab outings while recovering from his previous injury.

Assuming the MRI doesn’t reveal anything more serious, it would seem like Snell is in for at least another month on the sidelines, as both he and the Giants surely want to ensure that this injury is fully dealt with before Snell restarts another round of throwing sessions and minor league rehab starts.  Given the calendar, it seems possible that Snell could potentially be out until after the All-Star break, if the Giants wanted to give more time if he wasn’t quite ready by the beginning of July.

Missing more time also has broader implications on Snell’s future in San Francisco, as his contract carries an opt-out clause.  The two-year deal was designed to allow Snell to potentially re-enter the market quickly after another strong season, and this time land the more lucrative longer-term pact that eluded him this past winter.  However, even if he returns in July in his past form and pitches like an ace the rest of the way, the lackluster first three months might’ve already done enough to reinforce whatever doubts teams have about Snell’s ability to stay healthy.  Remaining with the Giants and banking another $30MM in 2025 isn’t exactly an ugly outcome for Snell, but since he’ll be 33 on Opening Day 2026, time is running out for Snell to truly maximize his earning potential.

Only five National League teams have winning records, so the 29-31 Giants still hold the third wild card slot despite all their struggles.  The rotation has been an obvious concern, as Logan Webb, Jordan Hicks, and Kyle Harrison have been San Francisco’s only reliable starters — Snell, Keaton Winn, and Mason Black have gotten the majority of other starts and none have pitched well.  Winn has also been out of action due to a forearm strain, though he was set for a minor league rehab game on Tuesday.

Since the Giants have an off-days both on Thursday and on June 13, they could keep Winn on his planned rehab schedule because the team wouldn’t need a fifth starter for close to three weeks.  Black could also be recalled from Triple-A, and the Giants are still probably at least six weeks away from having Robbie Ray or Alex Cobb as viable candidates to return from the 60-day IL.  Ray will pitch in an Arizona Complex League game this week as he continues to rehab his way back from Tommy John surgery, and Cobb has started throwing again after shoulder discomfort led to a shutdown in mid-May.

Dodgers Notes: Miller, Snell, Kershaw

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Dodgers youngster Bobby Miller made his second rehab start last night as he works his way back from a bout of shoulder inflammation that has kept him out of action since mid-April. As noted by Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, manager Dave Roberts told reporters that Miller experienced “a little velocity drop” during the start. While a drop in velocity can often be a sign of a physical issue of some sort, Roberts suggested that the club does not believe Miller to have been dealt any sort of physical setback in his recovery process.

Lower velocity could help to explain Miller’s rough final line last night, as he allowed four runs on five hits and a walk in 3 1/3 innings of work without recording a strikeout. That shaky performance doesn’t seem to have altered the club’s plans for Miller, however, as MLB.com’s Injury Tracker notes that Miller is scheduled to make his next rehab start at the Triple-A level before the Dodgers decide on whether or not he’s ready to rejoin the big league club. A fully healthy return from Miller would surely be a shot in the arm for the club, as the 25-year-old looked good in 22 starts during his rookie season last year with a 3.76 ERA and 3.51 FIP in 124 1/3 innings of work.

More notes from L.A….

  • A recent report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the Dodgers “made a late play” to land left-hander Blake Snell before he ultimately signed with the Giants on a two-year, $62MM deal. That the Dodgers had interest in Snell prior to his deal with San Francisco comes as something of a surprise given reporting from Heyman back in December that indicated the Dodgers had no interest in the reigning NL Cy Young award winner. Of course, in the months between those reports the market for Snell dried up considerably and he began to entertain short-term offers. Given Snell’s 10.42 ERA in five starts this year with the Giants, L.A. may have ended up better off by entering the season with a rotation of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Bobby Miller, James Paxton, and Gavin Stone. With Paxton and Walker Buehler both scheduled to hit free agency following the 2024 campaign, it’s possible the Dodgers could once again be a suitor for Snell’s services this winter should he rebound enough to opt out of year two of his deal with the Giants.
  • DiGiovanna also relays that the club’s longtime franchise face is making progress as he looks to work his way back from shoulder surgery. Lefty Clayton Kershaw faced six hitters in a live bullpen session yesterday, and in conversation with reporters (including DiGiovanna) compared to outing to an outing that would happen in the early stages of Spring Training during a normal year. The plan for Kershaw is currently for him to work his way towards a rehab stint after bumping up to two innings during his next bullpen session. As the Injury Tracker at MLB.com notes, the veteran lefty appears to be around six weeks away from a return to the big leagues, a timeline which would put him on track to return around the All Star break next month. Kershaw pitched through shoulder troubles last year, posting a 2.46 ERA in 24 starts for the Dodgers during the regular season, but ultimately opted to undergo surgery after a disastrous postseason start against the Diamondbacks where he allowed six runs while recording just one out.

Alex Cobb Halts Throwing Program Due To Shoulder Discomfort

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6:51pm: Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle notes that Cobb received a second cortisone shot in his shoulder, though that one was in a different spot. Per Cobb, the second cortisone shot is the reason he’s no longer throwing but he’s feeling better and hopeful the second shot will prove effective.

2:34pm: Alex Cobb has yet to pitch this season, as the veteran righty’s recovery from October hip surgery led to a season-opening stint on the 15-day injured list, and then a move to the 60-day IL on April 20.  The latter move wasn’t necessarily unexpected due to the vagaries involved in returning from a major procedure like a hip labrum repair, yet some shoulder soreness began to develop for Cobb as he continued his workouts in April.

Unfortunately, Cobb’s shoulder issues have continued, as Giants manager Bob Melvin told NBC Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic (links to X) and other reporters today.  As a result, Cobb’s throwing program has been put on hold, and it appears to be a lock that Cobb will remain on the IL well beyond his first eligible activation date of May 27.

An MRI on Cobb’s shoulder came back clean last month, so there apparently isn’t any structural issue even if his latest setback might lead to another set of tests.  Cobb also received a cortisone shot to help overcome the soreness, but that treatment also didn’t seem to solve the problem.  Until more is known about the situation, it seems like Cobb and the Giants are playing waiting game in the hopes that rest and rehab can get Cobb’s shoulder feeling better, so he can finally properly start to ramp up his preparations to begin his season.

The Giants originally signed Cobb to a two-year, $20MM deal following the 2021 season, and that contract became a three-year pact paying Cobb $28MM once San Francisco exercised its club option on his services last November, even in the wake of the right-hander’s hip surgery.  Despite the injury concerns, Cobb pitched well enough (3.80 ERA over 301 innings) in 2022-23 to quite easily justify the front office’s decision to exercise that option, yet naturally some second-guessing is inevitable if Cobb is now looking like he could miss at least half the season.

Between Cobb and San Francisco’s trade for Robbie Ray this past winter, the Giants were counting on a pair of veteran reinforcements to the rotation during the season — Cobb when he was through his recovery, and Ray around August once his Tommy John rehab was complete.  Between this duo and the signings of Blake Snell and Jordan Hicks, the Giants were hoping to have a deep stable of pitching options around Logan Webb, top prospect Kyle Harrison, and a host of other young arms.

The results have been mixed to date, as the rotation has been quite top heavy.  Webb, Harrison, and Hicks have all looked quite sharp, while Snell, Keaton Winn, and Mason Black have all struggled mightily.  Injuries have also been a factor, as Snell and Winn are both on the 15-day IL but Snell is nearing a return.  The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner is slated to be activated this coming week, with Pavlovic thinking Wednesday is a potential date in order to line Snell up behind Webb in the rotation.

Snell could hardly have gotten off to a worse start to his Giants tenure, posting an 11.57 ERA in 11 2/3 innings and three starts before hitting the IL with an adductor strain.  This came after Snell’s longer-than-expected stint in free agency didn’t end until he signed a two-year, $62MM deal with San Francisco on March 19, and he pitched in only some simulated games in extended Spring Training before making his first MLB start of the year on April 8.

However, Snell looks to have gotten in form during his minor league rehab stint.  The southpaw’s two minor league rehab starts (one in A-ball, one in Triple-A) have been almost literally perfect, as Snell has delivered nine hitless innings and just a single walk, with 17 strikeouts.  A healthy Snell pitching like his 2023 self would be a gigantic boost to the Giants’ staff, and it would help the team dig itself out of a lackluster 21-25 beginning to the season.

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