Latest On Blake Snell
Blake Snell is set to meet with Dodgers team doctors on Monday as the parties try to determine the next step in his recovery from left shoulder soreness. Snell’s shoulder is still bothering him, to the point that plans to resume playing catch earlier this week were put on hold until Snell received a check-up from the medical staff.
Snell has been on the 15-day injured list since April 3, and tests haven’t revealed any structural damage within his throwing shoulder. He did start throwing in mid-April and had one bullpen session, but continued discomfort in his shoulder scrapped plans for another pen session on April 23. MLB.com’s Sonja Chen writes that Snell has received an injection in his shoulder since April 23, though the treatment didn’t appear to do much to solve the issue.
More will be known about Snell’s status once the check-up actually takes place tomorrow, though it can’t be considered a good sign that the two-time Cy Young Award winner has now gone close to three weeks without throwing, and what was initially thought to be a relatively minor shoulder issue has now cost Snell an increasingly big chunk of the 2025 season.
Injuries have long been a subplot of Snell’s career, yet when healthy, Snell has looked like one of the better pitchers in the sport over the last decade. The Dodgers were encouraged enough by this upside to sign Snell to a five-year, $182MM free agent deal this past winter, even though a variety of injuries in the first half of the 2024 season limited him to 104 innings with the Giants last year.
Given this track record, nobody would be surprised if Snell again looks like an ace whenever he returns to the L.A. mound. The fact that Snell hit the IL after just two starts in Dodger Blue is certainly ominous, however, and those concerns won’t dissipate unless Snell gets some good news in tomorrow’s check-up, or (more directly) when he is actually on a clear track to a return to action.
Tyler Glasnow is also set to meet with team doctors tomorrow, though this appears to be something of a final step before the right-hander gets the green light to start a formal rehab process. Glasnow went on the 15-day IL on April 28 due to his own case of shoulder inflammation, and that placement was soon followed by news of a 10-14 day shutdown. That shutdown period is now complete, as manager Dave Roberts told Chen and other reporters that Glasnow is pain-free and started playing catch this weekend.
Assuming tomorrow’s check-up goes well, it will still be a while before Glasnow is back off the IL, as he’ll need time (and probably at least one minor league rehab start) to fully rebuild his arm strength. But especially given the uncertainty surrounding Snell, Glasnow’s return to at least light throwing is a good sign.
Snell and Glasnow are two of a whopping 13 pitchers on the Dodgers’ seemingly ever-crowded injured list, and Shohei Ohtani could technically be considered the 14th given how Ohtani hasn’t pitched since undergoing a UCL-related surgery in September 2023. However, a major name is set to be activated next weekend, as Clayton Kershaw threw what is expected to be his final minor league rehab outing today.
Kershaw tossed 57 pitches over four innings with Triple-A Oklahoma City in today’s start, which was the fourth outing of his rehab stint. Kershaw underwent surgeries on his left plantar plate and a torn left meniscus last November, and began the season on the 60-day injured list as part of that recovery process. Because the Dodgers’ season began earlier than usual due to their series in Tokyo with the Cubs, May 17 represents the first day that Kershaw is eligible to be activated off the 60-day IL. Whether Kershaw is activated on the exact day or the next, the future Hall-of-Famer will make his 2025 debut during next weekend’s series against the Angels.
Once Kershaw is back, Los Angeles will be back up to a five-man rotation that also includes Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki, Tony Gonsolin, and Dustin May. Since Yamamoto and Sasaki are on once-a-week pitching schedules to emulate their usage in Japan, the Dodgers should still deploy an unofficial six-man staff to make up for those extra starts, with the likes of Landon Knack, Ben Casparius, Justin Wrobleski, or others stepping into spot duty.
Dodgers Notes: Gonsolin, Snell, Ohtani
The Dodgers are set to get some rotation reinforcements this week, as manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Mike DiGiovanna of the Associated Press) yesterday that right-hander Tony Gonsolin is expected to return from the injured list to start Wednesday’s game against the Marlins.
It will mark Gonsolin’s first appearance on a big league mound in nearly two full years. The right-hander last pitched on August 18, 2023 (against the Marlins, coincidentally) but surrendered ten runs on five homers in 3 1/3 innings of work after having pitched through arm troubles for weeks. That final difficult start capped off a six-start stretch where Gonsolin surrendered an 8.01 ERA in 30 1/3 innings of work, so it’s not hard to see the impact Gonsolin’s woes had on his effectiveness. The right-hander was placed on the IL after that mid-August start and underwent Tommy John surgery on September 1.
He missed the entire 2024 season as a result of his rehab despite flirting with the possibility of a late-season return, and entered Spring Training fully healthy and ready to battle for a rotation job this spring. Unfortunately, the injury bug once again bit him when he was hit with a bout of back tightness late in the spring. That led to another season started on the injured list, but now he looks poised to finally get back on the major league mound as a starting pitcher. That’s the role he held for the entirety of his best season in the majors, when he made the 2022 NL All-Star team on the back of a 2.14 ERA in 130 1/3 innings of work across 24 starts.
Whether he’ll keep that role long-term or move to the bullpen at some point this year remains to be seen. It wouldn’t be a shock to see a strong performance keep Gonsolin in the mix for starts all year long, but he does have some big league experience as a reliever and the Dodgers’ on-paper rotation is extremely crowded when anything close to fully healthy. When the club’s rotation mix is firing on all cylinders, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Dustin May, and Roki Sasaki all seem likely to be ahead of Gonsolin on the organizational depth chart. With that being said, the Dodgers’ rotation mix is far from healthy at the moment, so Gonsolin should get a reasonably long runway as he looks to earn a more permanent spot on the starting staff.
Speaking of those rotation injuries, Roberts provided reporters (including ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez) with an update regarding Snell on Friday. Per Roberts, an MRI Snell underwent earlier in the week revealed “no new findings” beyond his previously-known shoulder inflammation. The manager added that he believes the club has “dodged a bullet” by shutting Snell down before the injury became more serious. The southpaw was set to receive an injection to help battle the inflammation but has yet to begin a throwing program. That leaves a timetable for his return to action somewhat murky, though Roberts suggested that the lack of structural damage leaves the door open for a somewhat quicker return to action.
Barring further setbacks, it seems as though Snell should at least be back on a big league mound before Ohtani. The two-way superstar threw his first bullpen session since returning from paternity leave yesterday, as relayed by MLB.com’s Sonja Chen. After not throwing last Saturday during his absence, Ohtani played catch rather than throw off the mound on Wednesday and limited his bullpen session yesterday to just 31 pitches, but he’s expected to resume his regular schedule of light mound work on Wednesdays and a full bullpen session on Saturdays this coming week.
While it’s good that Ohtani has resumed throwing, it appears that there’s been little progress in terms of his actual readiness of MLB games. He’s still limited to just fastballs and splitters for the time being, and won’t advance to facing live hitters until he’s utilizing his entire pitch mix. Club GM Brandon Gomes discussed Ohtani’s slow-going rehab with reporters (including Chen) yesterday, calling it “a week-by-week process.”
“We have a general sense, we’ve got to make sure that he’s feeling good and we’re being smart so we can’t lose the offensive side of it as well,” Gomes said, as relayed by Chen. “In a lot of these rehabs, you kind of set a date and work backward. I think on this one, you’re moving forward, because it’s a one-of-one type thing.”
While the Dodgers floated the month of May as a potential timeline for Ohtani’s return during the winter, Ohtani’s pitching build up was paused prior to L.A.’s series against the Cubs in Tokyo. That pushed back his timeline, and while no dates have been floated for his return since then it seems likely that he’ll resume pitching in the majors again at some point in the second half.
Dodgers Shut Down Blake Snell
Dodgers left-hander Blake Snell likely won’t be returning to the club soon. Manager Dave Roberts told members of the media, including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, that the southpaw “didn’t feel great” after a recent catch session. He will be shut down and it’s possible he’ll be sent for more imaging. He’ll be re-examined when the club gets back to Los Angeles, per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times. The Dodgers are at Wrigley tonight, then have an off-day Thursday before starting a new homestand on Friday.
Snell started the season healthy but landed on the injured list after just two starts due to shoulder inflammation. An MRI at that time didn’t find any structural damage and the club was hopeful that he wouldn’t miss too much time. It’s now been three weeks since his last appearance and this latest shutdown figures to extend his timeline.
More information will likely be revealed in the coming days as the Dodgers conduct more tests but it’s obviously not encouraging for him to have any kind of setback or recurrence of discomfort. The Dodgers signed him to a five-year, $182MM deal in the offseason, though with some deferrals. He got that big payday on account of strong production on a rate basis. He has only twice pitched more than 130 innings in a season, with both of those seasons resulting in Cy Young awards.
The Dodgers surely were aware that they might have a few IL stints from Snell over the course of his contract, based on past precedent. In other seasons, he has managed to post decent results around his injuries. That was the case last year. He followed up his 2023 Cy Young season with an uneven campaign in 2024. He went on the IL a couple of times due to groin issues and had a 9.51 ERA at the end of June, but then dominated the rest of the way with a 1.23 ERA in the final three months.
That was an extreme example of a general trend in Snell’s career, as he has almost always been a slow starter and strong finisher. For his career, he has a 3.92 first half ERA but a 2.39 ERA in the second half. Time will tell if this is a significant ailment or just another instalment of Snell’s typical magic. The Dodgers surely care more about Snell’s ability to contribute in October, so it makes sense to be cautious with anything at this time of year.
Snell is one of a number of Dodger starters on the injured list. Each of Emmet Sheehan, Kyle Hurt, River Ryan and Gavin Stone are out after undergoing major arm surgeries last year. Clayton Kershaw underwent knee and foot surgery and is still working his way back. Tony Gonsolin suffered a back injury during spring training.
Right now, the healthy rotation consists of Tyler Glasnow, Dustin May, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki. Gonsolin and Kershaw are both currently on rehab assignments and could return in the coming weeks, though it’s a bit short-handed for now, especially with the club keeping Yamamoto and Sasaki on weekly pitching schedules. Ben Casparius is starting a bullpen game tonight after the Dodgers used six relievers in last night’s extra-innings loss.
Photo courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez, Imagn Images
Dodgers Notes: Treinen, Snell, Glasnow
Veteran reliever Blake Treinen was placed on the 15-day injured list yesterday due to tightness in his right forearm, and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts shed more light on Treinen’s situation when speaking with the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett and other reporters today. Specifically, Treinen has a “low-grade sprain of the forearm,” as Roberts described it, as some forearm discomfort throughout the week resurfaced Friday when Treinen was warming up to enter the game.
“He was one hitter away as he was warming up to go into the game,” Roberts said. “Obviously, if he were to pitch, it could have been potentially worse. So I would say we’re in the dodged-a-bullet category.”
An MRI revealed the sprain yesterday, and Treinen will get more testing done before a recovery timeline is established. Roberts’ view of the injury seemed relatively positive, though even if Treinen has avoided a more long-term problem, it stands to reason that he’ll miss more than just 15 days just out of natural precaution when dealing with forearm-related injuries.
Treinen’s first four seasons in Los Angeles yielded excellent (if often injury-plagued) results, leading to a two-year, $22MM deal to rejoin the club this past offseason. Treinen was off to a solid start in 2025, if a bit of a step back only in comparison to his past standards since coming to the Dodgers prior to the 2020 season. Over eight innings and eight appearances this year, Treinen has a 3.38 ERA, 27.8% strikeout rate, and 8.3% walk rate.
Turning to another Blake on the Dodgers’ injured list, Saturday marked Blake Snell‘s first bullpen session since he was placed on the 15-day IL with left shoulder inflammation. Snell told The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya that he will need at least one more bullpen and simulated game before exploring a rehab assignment, but as for the first step, Snell left his initial bullpen session feeling “way better.”
Snell hasn’t pitched since April 2, and it would seem like his IL stint will last over a month, given the number of steps remaining in the recovery process. While the shoulder inflammation doesn’t seem like anything too serious, it does add to Snell’s history of both injuries and first-half struggles. Snell did have a 2.00 ERA in his first two starts and nine innings of the 2025 season, but for his career, he has a 3.95 ERA prior to the All-Star break and then a 2.34 ERA in the second half.
The L.A. rotation had another minor injury scare in today’s 1-0 win over the Rangers, as Tyler Glasnow left with an apparent leg injury after throwing his first pitch of the fifth inning. Fortunately, the team announced that Glasnow left due to only leg cramps, and Glasnow told MLB.com’s Sonja Chen and other reporters that he believes he’ll be able to make his next start. The Dodgers have off-days on both Monday and Thursday this week, so Glasnow will get a full week before he is next scheduled to take the mound on April 27 against the Pirates.
Dodgers Notes: Knack, Snell, Gonsolin, Freeman
The Dodgers recalled Landon Knack to start Wednesday’s series finale against the Nationals. The 27-year-old righty was hit hard, surrendering five runs on four hits and four walks. L.A. nevertheless managed a 6-5 win to avoid a sweep. Manager Dave Roberts said postgame that Knack will stick in the rotation for at least one more turn, as he’ll start at some point in next week’s series against the Rockies (relayed by Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic).
Knack bounced between the big league roster and Triple-A Oklahoma City throughout last season. He managed a 3.65 ERA across 69 innings as a rookie. Knack fanned 24.1% of opponents against a tidy 6.3% walk rate, but he allowed home runs at an elevated rate of 1.83 per nine innings. He’d made a two-inning relief appearance during the opening Tokyo Series. This was his first start of 2025.
The rotation spot opened when Blake Snell landed on the injured list over the weekend with shoulder inflammation. Testing has not revealed any structural damage. Roberts said on Tuesday that the two-time Cy Young winner will resume throwing at the beginning of next week (via Jack Harris of The Los Angeles Times). The injury did not require any kind of injection. The Dodgers haven’t provided a return timetable, but it appears to be a relatively minor concern — at least as far as shoulder injuries go.
Knack probably won’t hold a rotation spot for the entirety of Snell’s IL stint. Tony Gonsolin was battling for the final rotation spot until he tweaked his back lifting weights late in Spring Training. He opened the season on the IL as a result, but he has gotten through two rehab appearances without issue. Gonsolin tossed 46 pitches over 3 1/3 dominant innings in a start for OKC tonight. He allowed only one hit and walk apiece while recording seven strikeouts. He’ll make at least one more Triple-A start but should be activated within the next few weeks.
Meanwhile, Freddie Freeman will evidently be able to return from his injured list stay without a rehab stint. Roberts said this afternoon that he anticipates the Dodgers will reinstate the star first baseman before Friday’s series opener against the Cubs (via Sonja Chen of MLB.com). It’ll be a minimal 10-day IL stay after Freeman suffered a right ankle sprain. Enrique Hernández has played first in his absence. The utilityman has a bizarre .103/.163/.410 batting line over 43 plate appearances. Hernández only has four hits all season and they’ve all been home runs.
No Structural Damage In Blake Snell’s Shoulder; Dodgers Hoping For Short-Term Absence
April 8: An MRI confirmed that Snell is not facing any structural damage in his shoulder, per the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett. His treatment will likely include an injection of some sort, but the team is hopeful the two-time Cy Young winner will only require a short-term absence.
April 6: The Dodgers have placed left-hander Blake Snell on the 15-day injured list due to inflammation in his throwing shoulder. The placement is retroactive to April 3. Right-hander Matt Sauer was called up from Triple-A to take Snell’s spot on the active roster.
Despite allowing eight walks in nine innings of work this season, Snell emerged with a 2.00 ERA over his first two starts of the season. It seems as if this shoulder issue developed in between Snell’s last outing on April 2 and a bullpen session today, as Jack Harris of the L.A. Times reports that Snell talked with GM Brandon Gomes and team trainer Thomas Albert in the aftermath of the bullpen.
This is the tenth visit to the injured list Snell has taken over his 10 MLB seasons, and today’s news continues his career-long theme of both health concerns and early-season issues. Snell is somewhat infamously a slow starter, with a 3.95 ERA over 555 2/3 career innings prior to the All-Star break, and then a 2.32 ERA in 500 innings over the second halves of seasons.
These splits notwithstanding, there are few pitchers in the game better than Snell when he’s in top form, as evidenced by his two Cy Young Awards. The 2024 campaign was another example of Snell’s hot-and-cold tendencies, as he signed with the Giants late in Spring Training and subsequently spent much of the first three months either injured or struggling, until the switch flipped and Snell posted a 1.23 ERA over his final 80 1/3 frames of the season.
Snell was encouraged enough by this spectacular finish to opt out of the final season (and $30MM) of his contract with the Giants, and that decision proved to be wise, as Los Angeles signed Snell to a five-year, $182MM free agent deal. The contract is worth “only” around $160MM-$165MM in current value since $65MM of Snell’s salary is deferred, yet it still represented the big long-term payday that eluded Snell in his previous trip to free agency.
The fact that Snell has already gone on the IL will bring some fresh questions about the Dodgers’ investment, yet there isn’t any indication that Snell’s shoulder inflammation is anything serious. It does leave the Dodgers in a bit of a tricky spot when it comes to filling Snell’s rotation spot, as Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki are both only being used once per week, replicating the standard usage of a Japanese pitching rotation. Landon Knack, Justin Wrobleski, and Bobby Miller are the likeliest candidates to receive a Triple-A call-up and at least one spot start in Snell’s place.
In the bigger picture, Tony Gonsolin is on a Triple-A rehab assignment, and Clayton Kershaw (toe/knee surgeries) and Emmet Sheehan (Tommy John surgery) are expected to be available later in the season. Shohei Ohtani is also slowly ramping up his pitching workload in preparation of his mound debut in a Dodgers uniform, though it will still be at least a couple of months before Ohtani becomes available from a pitching perspective. In theory, Los Angeles has enough pitching depth available or eventually available to withstand another injury-riddled year like 2024, though Snell’s injury underlines the difficulty the Dodgers face in trying to maintain and preserve a staff of so many pitchers with significant durability questions.
MLBTR Podcast: Blake Snell, Dodger Fatigue, And The Simmering Hot Stove
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Dodgers signing Blake Snell (2:00)
- Baseball fans having Dodger fatigue and deferral fatigue (9:05)
- Are the Dodgers going to make more rotation additions? (14:30)
- The Dodgers extending Tommy Edman (16:25)
- The news of the Red Sox signing Aroldis Chapman breaks during recording (21:30)
- The Mets signing Frankie Montas (26:30)
- The Cubs signing Matthew Boyd (35:55)
- The Rangers signing Kyle Higashioka (43:15)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- What would the Pirates have to give to the Red Sox to get Triston Casas? (48:20)
- Why is Cody Bellinger‘s deal so tough for the Cubs to trade? (54:15)
Check out our past episodes!
- Yusei Kikuchi, The Aggressive Angels, And The Brady Singer/Jonathan India Trade – listen here
- The Rays’ Stadium Plans, Diamond Sports, And Some Offseason Rumors – listen here
- Roki Sasaki, Gerrit Cole’s Non-Opt-Out, And Cardinals Rumors – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Blake Snell’s Deal With Dodgers Includes Conditional Club Option
Left-hander Blake Snell and the Dodgers reportedly agreed to a deal a week ago and the club officially announced it on the weekend, but the finer details of the pact are still trickling out. Per Jon Heyman of The New York Post (X link), the $182MM guarantee breaks down as a $52MM signing bonus followed by $26MM salaries in each of the five years of the deal, though with $13.2MM deferred annually without interest. There’s a $5MM assignment bonus if Snell is traded. Additionally, there’s a $10MM club option for 2030 under certain conditions: if Snell hasn’t been assigned to another club and has 90 or more days in a row on the injured list due to specific injury.
Many of these details came out in the initial reporting, including the guarantee, the signing bonus, the assignment bonus and that there were significant deferrals. However, the deferrals are slightly higher than initially thought. The numbers reported last week were $13MM in annual deferrals for a total of $65MM, but we now know that it’s slightly higher than that, with the $13.2MM annual figure actually getting the total number of deferrals to $66MM. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (X link), the MLBPA calculates the net present value of the deal at $150.336MM.
But the conditional option is the most significant new development today, as there was no prior reporting about Snell’s contract extending into the 2030 season in any way. Now it’s known that the Dodgers could potentially hold onto Snell for a sixth year, though only under certain circumstances.
Given the conditions, it seems it gives the Dodgers a bit of an insurance policy in the event Snell ends up with a significant injury over the course of the deal. Presumably, the specific injury would involve something related to his pitching elbow, whether that’s Tommy John surgery or some internal brace alternative. Such surgeries have become increasingly common in baseball in recent decades but still require pitchers to spend upwards of a year recovering.
Assuming that is the specific injury covered in the contract, the Dodgers would have the choice of keeping Snell around for an extra year, compensating them in a way for the lost year. Snell will be 37 years old by the time 2030 rolls around, so it’s anyone’s guess what kind of form he will be in at that point, especially if there’s a notable injury along the way. But $10MM is already not a lot of money for a starting pitcher.
Last winter, veteran back-end guys like Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn got $13MM and $11MM guarantees on one-year deals, respectively. Wade Miley and Alex Wood were not far behind at $8.5MM. Inflation generally pushes salaries up over time, so those kinds of deals might creep up a bit between now and 2030.
It’s also possible Snell’s future talent level is above where those guys are now, given that he’s a two-time Cy Young winner and has had a more impressive peak than anyone in that group. Not all pitchers can maintain that kind of performance into their late 30s, but those who do are handsomely rewarded. Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Zack Wheeler were each recently able to secure salaries of $42MM or higher for deals that covered their late 30s or early 40s, so Snell at $10MM could be a massive bargain if he continues to pitch well over the course of the deal.
The fact that the option is also conditional on Snell not being assigned to another club is also interesting, as it could reduce the chances of Snell being traded while hurt. Robbie Ray underwent Tommy John surgery while with the Mariners and found himself traded to the Giants before he recovered from that procedure. If Snell ends up missing some time and unlocking that option for the Dodgers, they might be more inclined to keep him and take advantage of that option. All of this is moot for now, but it could become relevant down the line, depending on how things play out in the next five years.
Quick Hits: Snell, Orioles, Brash, Cubs
The Orioles had “legitimate interest” in southpaw Blake Snell before he landed with the Dodgers on a five-year deal that became official earlier today, per a report from Roch Kubatko of MASN. Kubatko notes, however, that it’s unclear how advanced talks between Baltimore and Snell’s camp became before he settled on Los Angeles. Previous reporting indicated that the Orioles could get involved in the Snell sweepstakes, but Kubatko’s report is the first confirming Baltimore’s interest.
As the club looks to either reunite with right-hander Corbin Burnes or replace his production at the top of their rotation following his departure for free agency earlier this month, it’s hardly a surprise to hear that the club took a hard look at Snell while he was available. The two-time Cy Young award winner has been even better than Burnes from a run prevention perspective over the past three years, with a 2.82 ERA and 2.98 FIP in 412 innings. Burnes, meanwhile, lags behind in rate stats with a 3.08 ERA and 3.49 FIP, but his 590 innings of work dwarf Snell in terms of volume. That volume figures to be particularly attractive to an Orioles club that has serious health question marks surrounding a number of its starters, including Kyle Bradish as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery that figures to keep him out of action for at least the first half of 2025.
While Burnes seems likely to remain the Orioles’s top choice in free agency this winter, they’ve also been connected to southpaws Max Fried and Garrett Crochet in free agency and via trade respectively. It seems as though they’re also looking at mid-rotation arms as well, however, as they were recently linked to veteran righty Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi projects to be much less expensive than Burnes and Fried in free agency this winter, but that affordability comes with a much less impactful track record as the 34-year-old has a solid but unremarkable 3.75 ERA and 3.63 FIP across the past five seasons. The Orioles are quite familiar with Eovaldi, of course, as he spent seven seasons in the AL East with the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox from 2015 to 2022.
More tidbits from around the baseball world…
- Mariners fans got an encouraging update on the status of right-hander Matt Brash recently, as Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reported earlier this week that the right-hander is ahead of schedule as he rehabs from his early May Tommy John surgery. Per Jude, the Mariners are “optimistic” that he could return to the club’s bullpen by the end of April this coming season, just under a year after he first went under the knife. Brash’s return would surely be a major boost for Seattle, as he established himself as one of the most exciting young arms in the club’s arsenal during a breakout 2023 campaign. After being moved to the bullpen partway through the 2022 season, Brash’s first full campaign as a reliever saw him lead the majors with 78 appearances while posting an excellent 3.06 ERA with an even better 2.26 FIP. He struck out an eye-popping 34.7% of batters faced that year, and if he can post numbers anything like that in 2025 he’ll be a phenomenal complement to closer Andres Munoz at the back of the Mariners bullpen next year.
- The Cubs have yet to announce their finalized coaching staff for the 2025 season, but Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reported earlier this week that at least one more vacancy has been filled. After assistant pitching coach Daniel Moskos departed the organization to become the Marlins’ pitching coach, the club is promoting internally to replace Moskos by hiring Casey Jacobson. Jacobson has been in the Cubs organization since October 2019 and has spent the past two years as the senior coordinator of pitching development for the club in the minor leagues. Now, he’ll get the opportunity to work on a big league coaching staff for the first time in his career with a number of young arms such as Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, and Porter Hodge expected to play roles for Chicago next year.
Dodgers Sign Blake Snell To Five-Year Deal
The Dodgers continue to load up, as they announced their five-year contract with left-hander Blake Snell Saturday afternoon. The deal, which is pending a physical, comes with a $182MM guarantee but reportedly includes $65MM in deferrals ($13MM per year) that’ll reduce the net present value to the $160-165MM range. Snell, a client of the Boras Corporation, receives a $52MM signing bonus and limited no-trade protection, while the deal includes a $5MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade. The contract does not contain any opt-out provisions and covers Snell’s age 32-36 seasons.
It’s the offseason’s biggest move to date and represents a much quicker resolution than Snell’s previous trip to the market. The star southpaw was coming off a Cy Young campaign last winter. The long-term deal he sought didn’t materialize, leading to an extended free agent stay. Snell went unsigned into March before joining the Giants on a two-year deal that guaranteed him $62MM and, more importantly, allowed him to opt out after the first season.
Snell had a dismal start to the season. He allowed more than a run per inning over his first six appearances. He landed on the injured list twice in the first three months while battling groin discomfort. As recently as the middle of June, it looked like a near-lock that Snell would bypass the chance to return to free agency.
That all changed as soon as he returned from his second IL stint. By the end of the season, there was no doubt he’d pass on the remaining $30MM on his pact with San Francisco. Snell was the best pitcher in baseball down the stretch. Over his final 14 starts, he turned in a 1.23 earned run average while holding opponents to a .123/.211/.171 batting line that looked like a throwback to the days when pitchers hit.
Snell struck out more than 38% of batters faced over that run. He had five double-digit strikeout performances and fanned at least eight hitters in 10 outings. Snell had the best two-start run of his career right around the trade deadline. He struck out 15 over six scoreless innings against the Rockies on July 27 before no-hitting the Reds with 11 punchouts on August 2.
The overall numbers were still weighed down to some extent by his terrible first two months. He wrapped up the year with a 3.12 ERA and a 34.7% strikeout rate over 104 innings spanning 20 starts. That’s a strong season but didn’t earn him a single Cy Young vote. The overall platform year was less impressive than the 180 innings of 2.25 ERA ball he posted during his ’23 campaign in San Diego. Snell finished the season looking every bit as dominant as he’d been during his Cy Young years, though.
It seems the Dodgers are attributing the first two months to some combination of an abbreviated Spring Training and the injuries. While this year was the most extreme example, Snell has been a slow starter throughout his career. He has a 3.95 ERA and 28.4% strikeout rate in the first half of his nine big league seasons. The ERA plummets to 2.39 while he has raised his strikeout percentage above 32% after the All-Star Break.
The main knock has been his lack of consistent durability. Snell has reached the 180-inning threshold on two occasions — his 2018 Cy Young season with the Rays and his ’23 award-winning campaign. Outside those seasons, Snell has topped out in the 125-130 inning range.
That’s not a concern for the Dodgers, who have shown they’re far more interested in chasing upside than bulk. Los Angeles acquired and extended Tyler Glasnow last offseason even though he’d never topped 120 MLB innings in a season. The Dodgers will give Shohei Ohtani another chance to pitch coming off his second significant elbow surgery. They’re almost certainly going to reunite with Clayton Kershaw. They’ve graduated a number of talented pitchers from the farm system but seen a lot of them go down to injuries.
It’s an approach geared heavily toward the postseason. The Dodgers prioritize pitchers who profile as potential Game 1 starters. They’re very willing to assume injury risk while chasing that ceiling. That left them woefully short on starting pitching in 2023, resulting in a sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks in the Division Series. The injuries mounted again this fall, but they had just enough in the form of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler to patch together an October rotation. With a star-studded lineup, that was sufficient to lift their second trophy in five years.
Snell arguably fits that mold as well as any pitcher in baseball. Among pitchers with at least 200 innings over the past two years, only Reynaldo López and Tarik Skubal have a lower ERA than his 2.57 mark. Snell’s 32.7% strikeout rate is second, trailing only Glasnow by a fraction of a percentage point. No one has a higher swinging strike rate.
The Dodgers have four pitchers who could start the first game of a playoff series. Snell, Ohtani, Yamamoto and Glasnow are each capable of providing ace-caliber production on a rate basis. It’s unlikely all four will be healthy come playoff time, but the Dodgers have no shortage of talented options behind them. Kershaw figures to be back in the rotation mix once he re-signs, while Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and prospect Nick Frasso are returning from major surgeries. Bobby Miller is looking to rebound from a terrible sophomore season after turning in a 3.76 ERA across 22 starts as a rookie. Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski are capable depth arms.
That’s before considering the possibility of further acquisitions. The Dodgers will surely make a push for NPB ace Roki Sasaki, who’d arguably be the fifth starter if he went to L.A. Even if Sasaki signs elsewhere, the Dodgers could pursue Garrett Crochet on the offseason trade market and/or continue adding starting pitching at the deadline.
Of course, the ability to stockpile this kind of rotation talent is a reflection of the Dodgers’ financial might. Even if other front offices share their general approach to valuing upside over durability, few ownership groups are willing to match L.A.’s spending. The Dodgers had generally shied away from pitching splashes under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, but that has changed over the past calendar year. This is their third nine-figure pitching investment since last offseason (fourth including Ohtani). They signed Yamamoto for $325MM and extended Glasnow on a deal that included $110MM in new money.
MLBTR ranked Snell as the #2 starting pitcher in the class and predicted a five-year, $160MM contract. The deal’s actual value lands right around there. The specific NPV won’t be clear until the deferral structure is revealed. The expected $32-33MM luxury tax hit indicates the deal will have a net present value in the $160-165MM range. That’d be the second-biggest luxury tax hit on L.A.’s books, trailing only the approximate $46.1MM CBT number on Ohtani’s heavily deferred $700MM contract.
In any case, the deal is likely to push the Dodgers’ competitive balance tax figure north of $300MM. They’ll almost certainly land in the fourth and final tier of penalization, which begins at $301MM. The Dodgers are subject to the highest tier of escalation penalties for paying the tax in at least three straight seasons. The Snell deal itself will cost the Dodgers something in the range of $25-30MM in taxes by vaulting them from the middle of the second penalization tier to the start of the highest tax bracket. Future spending will be taxed at the maximum 110% clip.
It’s a major commitment but one the Dodgers are well-positioned to make. They’re coming off the revenue bump associated with a World Series win. More importantly, the structure of Ohtani’s contract allows the Dodgers to continue stockpiling talent. While the Ohtani deal was not an end-around the luxury tax, there’s a huge benefit from a raw payroll perspective. Paying the NL MVP a $2MM salary for the next nine seasons is a big reason they’re able to continue taking on huge money in the short term.
Snell slotted alongside Corbin Burnes and ahead of Max Fried as the top starters in this year’s class. In addition to fitting the Dodgers’ general preference for high-ceiling arms, Snell came with the benefit of not costing draft compensation. He’s the only of the top three starters who wasn’t issued a qualifying offer. Snell had received the QO during his first free agent trip, so the Giants could not make the offer this time around. Burnes and Fried each rejected a qualifying offer and would’ve cost the Dodgers their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft and $1MM from their ’26 bonus pool for international amateurs.
Burnes and Fried become the clear #1-2 options for the other teams seeking top-flight starting pitching. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported this evening that the Red Sox, Yankees and Orioles were also in the Snell bidding. They’ve all been tied to top-of-the-market starting pitchers — Boston especially — and should remain active on that front in the weeks to come.
MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported the Dodgers and Snell had a five-year deal, shortly after the pitcher revealed on Instagram that he was joining L.A. Jeff Passan and Jorge Castillo of ESPN first reported the $182MM guarantee. Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic reported that the deal contained deferrals that would drop the net present value to the $32-33MM range annually. Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times was first with the $52MM signing bonus, while Feinsand had the limited no-trade protection. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported the absence of an opt-out clause. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the presence of an assignment bonus, which Harris relayed at $5MM. Heyman first reported the exact breakdown of the deferrals.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.