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Padres Have Turned Away Interest In Blake Snell, Josh Hader

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The Padres’ season has been an abject disappointment, but despite a 10-game deficit in the NL West and a six-game gap in the NL Wild Card chase, they apparently remain intent on keeping the roster together. ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that the Friars have received and thus far rebuffed interest in lefties Blake Snell and Josh Hader.

Both southpaws are free agents at season’s end. Snell is wrapping up the final season of a five-year, $50MM contract extension originally signed with the Rays. He’s earning $16MM this season. Hader is in his final season of arbitration eligibility and being paid $14.1MM.

After a rocky start to the season, the 30-year-old Snell has rediscovered the form that helped him win the American League Cy Young Award in 2018. Dating back to mid-May, Snell has pitched to a preposterous 0.78 ERA and 35.9% strikeout rate in 69 innings. He’s walked an ugly 13.4% of his opponents during that time, although that number is at least partially skewed by one anomalous start in which he issued seven free passes. Overall, Snell carries a 2.61 ERA. He’s running a strikeout rate north of 30% for the sixth consecutive season.

Hader, similarly, has rebounded this season. Much was made of the lefty’s struggles prior to last July’s trade to San Diego and subsequent rough patch early in his Padres tenure. However, he closed out the year with a dominant stretch and was excellent throughout the postseason as well. He’s backed that up with 38 innings of 0.95 ERA ball, 24 saves and a massive 38.4% strikeout rate in 2023. Like Snell, he’s too prone to free passes (13.2% walk rate), but Hader’s penchant for missing bats has helped to mitigate any potential damage.

Both pitchers would be clear candidates to receive qualifying offers at season’s end, and both would surely reject in search of a lucrative multi-year deal in free agency (barring a notable second-half injury or collapse). As such, the Padres can feel confident that they’ll at least come away with a pair of compensatory picks in next year’s draft. However, since they’re luxury-tax payors, those picks would land after the fourth round rather than the standard slotting between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the draft.

The luxury tax comes into play in another regard for the Padres, too. San Diego is currently about $4MM north of the third line of luxury penalization ($273MM), per Roster Resource. That’s the point at which a team’s top pick is pushed back by 10 selections in the following summer’s draft. Trading Snell and the remainder of his $10MM luxury hit ($3.655MM, as of this writing) wouldn’t drop the Padres under that threshold. Hader ($5.154MM still owed to him) would do so. To be clear, there’s no indication the Padres are endeavoring to drop below that line at this time.

For much of the offseason, the Padres appeared reluctant to cross that third luxury barrier. Many of the team’s late-offseason dealings were structured in convoluted ways designed to tamp down their luxury-tax implications, including their extension of Yu Darvish and signing of Michael Wacha. They’ve nevertheless wound up north of that line and are currently on pace to have next summer’s top pick dropped by 10 spots.

If owner Peter Seidler’s comments earlier this month are any indication, the loss of draft capital isn’t likely to be a deterrent. On July 2, when the Padres were eight games under .500, 11.5 games back in the division and 8.5 games out of the Wild Card chase, Seidler pledged that his team would not “reverse course.” San Diego has played better since that time, going 11-7 and trimming that Wild Card deficit by two and a half games.

There’s an argument to be made that the Padres could explore deals for Snell and/or Hader, prioritizing near-MLB help and simultaneously looking to back-fill the roster with lower-cost rentals. I explored as much in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers a couple weeks back. Doing so could net talent that would help in 2024 and beyond while simultaneously improving their 2024 draft outlook and at least loosely keeping their 2023 postseason aspirations afloat. That’d be a fine line to walk, however, and the Padres’ postseason chances are obviously greater if they simply hold onto Snell and Hader.

At least for now, that appears to be the front office’s plan. Passan suggests the Padres could look to add to their bullpen and perhaps turn to the farm system if those efforts come up empty.

The remaining handful of games between now and next Tuesday’s trade deadline remain worth monitoring. The Friars have their series finale against a free-falling Pirates club right now and will play the last-place Rockies next Monday, the final day before the deadline. That pair of favorable matchups bookends a pivotal three-game set against the AL West-leading Rangers.

If the Padres can pull themselves up to .500 or at least pick up another game or two in the Wild Card hunt, it stands to reason they’ll continue their all-in approach to the current season. On the other hand, a series of losses could conceivably make the front office give more consideration to a soft sell of rental pieces. As with so many clubs around the league, the next few games will be critical in shaping the Padres’ approach to the deadline.

2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: June Edition

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We’re at the regular season’s halfway point, and the free-agent landscape has changed a fair bit since we last ran through our Power Rankings back in mid-April. Injuries, changes in performance — some for the better, some for the worse — and more have combined to provide more context as to what shape the top of the free agent market will take.

As a reminder, our Power Rankings are based primarily on perceived earning power. This is an exercise intended to provide a snapshot of where the top end of the free agent class is currently sitting. One player being ranked higher than another does not necessarily indicate we feel he’s the better player. Youth, health, qualifying offer status, market scarcity and myriad other factors all impact what a player can expect to earn in free agency.

Our power rankings are compiled collaboratively. MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes and writers Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald all weighed in for this update. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given indications they may forgo the opportunity to return to the market.

1. Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Angels: There are no surprises up top. Ohtani remains far and away the top name on this year’s list — so much so that he might even command double the No. 2 entrant on our list. That’s both a testament to his general excellence and an indictment on what is generally a weaker free agent class than is typical.

Ohtani, 29 in July, isn’t having quite as dominant a season on the mound as he did in 2022, but he’s still been quite good and is enjoying his best year to date with the bat. In 95 1/3 innings, the flamethrowing righty has pitched to a 3.02 ERA with a 33.2% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate. The latter is a marked uptick from the 6.7% he logged a year ago. Ohtani’s strikeout rate is only down about half a percentage point from its 2022 levels, but he’s seen more notable drops in swinging-strike rate (from 14.9% to 13.5%) and opponents’ chase rate (32.6% to 29.5%). This is also the most homer-prone he’s ever been on the mound; his 1.13 HR/9 is a career-high, and the 12 homers he’s allowed in 95 1/3 innings innings are already just two shy of last year’s total of 14 — which came over a span of 166 frames.

To some extent, that’s just nitpicking. Ohtani has still been excellent. His ERA ranks 15th among qualified starting pitchers, and only Atlanta’s Spencer Strider has a higher strikeout rate. He currently ranks sixth among qualified pitchers in K-BB% (23%), and fielding-independent metrics are generally supportive of his success (e.g. 3.40 SIERA, 3.35 xERA). Hitters simply haven’t been able to make good contact against Ohtani, outside that handful of home runs anyway. His 86 mph average opponents’ exit velocity is in the 93rd percentile of MLB pitchers. His 34.8% opponents’ hard-hit rate is in the 77th percentile. He’s induced grounders at a solid 44.4% clip. The uptick in walks is significant, but that’s only taken Ohtani from an ace-level performer to a slight step below that level.

And of course, when discussing Ohtani, the mound work is only half the equation. His work in the batter’s box this season has been nothing short of sensational. In 360 plate appearances, Ohtani is batting .309/.389/659. That’s 82% better than league-average production after weighting for home park, by measure of wRC+. Ohtani has already belted 28 home runs, and he’s added 15 doubles and five triples while swiping 11 bags (in 15 tries). This year’s 11.4% walk rate is right an exact match for his career mark (although shy of his 15.6% peak), and his 21.7% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career.

Ohtani has averaged an obscene 93.7 mph off the bat this year and ranks in the 95th percentile (or better) of MLB hitters in exit velocity, barrel rate, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA. He’s a bona fide middle-of-the-order bat with the speed to swipe 25 to 30 bases and the power to clear 40 home runs.

When chatting about this update to our Power Rankings, Anthony Franco rhetorically asked me if I thought Ohtani the hitter and Ohtani the pitcher (if somehow separated) would both still individually rank ahead of the rest of this year’s class of free agents. We both agreed that they would. Fortunately, one team will get both this offseason — it just might cost more than half a billion dollars.

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Orix Buffaloes (Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball): Many people have wondered what type of contract Ohtani might have originally commanded if he’d waited two years to jump to Major League Baseball. Because he opted to make the jump at 23 years of age, he was considered an “amateur” under MLB rules and thus limited to the confines of MLB’s international free agent system. Since he’s not also a world class hitter, Yamamoto won’t give us an exact answer to that now-unanswerable Ohtani hypothetical, but he’ll show us what a 25-year-old ace can command under true open-market pricing if and when the Buffaloes post him, as expected.

Yamamoto, 25 in August, is one of the best pitchers in NPB and perhaps one of the most talented arms on the planet. The right-hander made his NPB debut as an 18-year-old rookie in 2017, stepped into the Buffaloes’ rotation full-time in 2019, and has pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA in four of the past five seasons, including this year’s current mark of 1.98. The lone exception was 2020, when his ERA ballooned all the way to… ahem, 2.20. Yamamoto has a sub-2.00 ERA in his career, and that’s including the 5.32 mark he posted in that age-18 rookie season.

So far in 2023, Yamamoto has pitched 68 1/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, a 27.8% strikeout rate and a superlative 4.1% walk rate. Just 11 of the 266 batters he’s faced have drawn a free pass. That’s a career-best mark for a pitcher who’s long had outstanding command but has continually whittled away at his walk rate over the years. In his NPB career, Yamamoto has walked just 6.1% of opponents against a 26.5% strikeout rate.

MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski kicked off his latest NPB Players To Watch piece with a look at Yamamoto’s recent run of dominance: a stretch of three consecutive eight-inning starts with just one run allowed and a 29.8% strikeout rate and .092 opponents’ average along the way. World Baseball Classic fans may remember Yamamoto’s performance as well: in 7 1/3 innings he allowed just two runs on four hits and two walks with 12 strikeouts. Back in April, Dai described Yamamoto as the “undisputed ace of NPB,” noting that he’s won the Sawamura Award (NPB’s Cy Young equivalent) in each of the past two seasons. He also won the pitching triple crown (ERA, strikeouts, wins) in 2021-22 and has a chance to repeat the feat in 2023.

Like so many pitchers these days, Yamamoto boasts a mid- to upper-90s heater. Scouts credit him with a potentially plus-plus splitter and give favorable reviews of his curveball and general athleticism as well. Presumably, there’s some trepidation regarding a pitcher who’s listed at just 5’10” and 169 pounds, and whoever signs him will have to pay a posting/release fee to the Buffaloes. Those are about the only “red flags” in Yamamoto’s profile.

Yamamoto’s countryman, Kodai Senga, has had some inconsistent command but generally performed well since signing a five-year, $75MM deal with the Mets. In an offseason piece, Joel Sherman of the New York Post quoted an evaluator who graded Yamamoto a full grade better than Senga on the 20-80 scale. And, it bears emphasizing, Yamamoto is five years younger than Senga. We haven’t seen a pitcher with this type of pedigree make the jump from Japan without any spending restrictions since Masahiro Tanaka signed a seven-year, $155MM deal with the Yankees. Yamamoto is younger than Tanaka was, he’s arguably better, and the price of pitching has only gone up since that time. A contract in excess of $200MM doesn’t seem outlandish if he can remain healthy and productive.

3. Matt Chapman, 3B, Blue Jays: It’s been a tale of two seasons for Chapman, who was perhaps baseball’s best hitter in April and one of its worst in May. The slump has been longer than the hot streak at this point, although the aggregate .265/.343/.457 slash is still well above league average (23% better, by measure of wRC+). Paired with his characteristically excellent defense (7 Defensive Runs Saved and 4 Outs Above Average already), and Chapman’s still been an undeniably valuable player, even if the nature of his contributions for the Jays have been quite frontloaded in the schedule’s early portion.

That said, it’s still incumbent upon Chapman to turn things around at the plate sooner than later. The weight of that early, Herculean stretch will continually diminish, and the current version of the former All-Star simply isn’t that compelling. Early in the year, Chapman was regularly making blistering contact and had dramatically cut back on his strikeouts. In writing about his brilliant start to the season in early May, I pointed out that he’d begun to let the strikeouts creep back in and wondered whether that was a mere blip or the onset of some regression.

Unfortunately, the strikeout issues that have dogged Chapman in the aftermath of his 2020 hip surgery have resurfaced. Dating back to May 1, Chapman is hitting just .203/.279/.339 with an a 30.2% strikeout rate. He’s still walking at a respectable 8.8% rate, and his quality of contact is excellent. Chapman is averaging 92.4 mph off the bat and hitting the ball at 95 mph or better in 52.7% of his plate appearances even during this prolonged slump. After benefiting from a .449 BABIP early in the year, he’s seen that mark swing down to .269 in May and June.

In all likelihood, the “true” results are somewhere between the two extremes of Chapman’s 2023 season. He’s not the hitter he was in April, but he’s certainly better than he’s been in May and June. The question is whether Chapman can curb the strikeouts moving forward. His propensity for thunderous contact (when he makes it) should lead to some positive regression and once again begin to produce better results. But if he fans at a 30% clip from here on out, there may not be enough balls in play to help him prop his stat line back up. Furthermore, it’d mark the third time in four seasons he finished at or above a 30% strikeout rate, which doesn’t inspire much confidence over the course of a long-term deal.

Chapman still ranks prominently here because the overall numbers are still good, and because, frankly, the crop of position players this offseason is dreadful. In fact, he’s the only pure position player on this installment of our Power Rankings, which is unprecedented. If Chapman can sustain his quality of contact and scale back the strikeouts slightly, he could still find a seven- or eight-year deal heading into his age-31 season. His overall production right now is comparable to the output posted by Kris Bryant in advance of his foray into free agency (which resulted in a seven-year, $182MM contract), and Chapman has far more defensive value than Bryant.

4. Lucas Giolito, SP, White Sox: It’s been a tough start to the year for a number of top free agent pitchers, but Giolito has generally pitched well. His strikeout rate is down from its 33.7% peak, but he’s still fanning more than a quarter of his opponents with his typical brand of better-than-average command (7.5% walk rate). It’s too soon to tell is this is a trend, but it bears mentioning that Giolito has upped his slider usage recently and seen a notable increase in strikeouts. Over his past five starts, he’s thrown the slider at a 35.8% clip, as compared to his prior 28.4% usage rate. It’s not a massive increase, but Giolito had just three starts with a slider rate of 30% or more in his first 11 trips to the hill; since May 30, he’s been between 31.4% and 41.2% in each start. It does seem to mark a clear change in attack plan, and after fanning 23.9% of hitters through those 11 starts, he’s up to 29.4% over his past five.

Giolito’s 93.3 mph average fastball is actually up slightly from 2022’s average of 92.7 mph. Home runs remain an issue (1.36 HR/9), and he’s been a bit more homer-prone on the road than in his hitter-friendly home park this year. That’s not the norm, however; the right-hander has allowed more than 1.5 homers per nine innings in his career at home but is at a much more palatable 1.16 mark on the road.

Giolito’s current 3.41 ERA would mark the fourth time in five seasons that he finished with an ERA between 3.41 and 3.53. Last year’s 4.90 looks like a clear outlier that was largely fueled by a career-high .340 average on balls in play. (The White Sox, notably, were among the game’s worst defensive teams in 2022.)

As with all free agents, age is crucial. In Giolito’s case, it’ll work in his favor. He’s 28 years old as of this writing and will turn 29 in mid-July. Even a seven-year contract would “only” carry through his age-35 season. It’s also worth noting that he’s been a frequently speculated trade candidate, and if he’s flipped to another club, he’d be ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. That carries significance in free agency, too.

Giolito might not be an ace, but he’s a surefire playoff starter for any team in Major League Baseball. He’s the second-youngest of the starters on this list with big league experience and has been a workhorse since 2018, ranking 10th among all MLB pitchers with 855 innings pitched in that time. Kevin Gausman (five years, $110MM) and Robbie Ray (five years, $115MM) signed similar contracts that began in their age-30 seasons. Neither had a track record as long as Giolito, who’ll be a year younger in his first free agent season. A six- or even seven-year deal could be in play, depending on how he finishes.

5. Julio Urias, SP, Dodgers: Urias is among the hardest players to peg among this year’s group. On the one hand, he posted a combined 2.63 ERA over 495 1/3 innings from 2019-22 and is slated to hit the open market in advance of age-27 season — a borderline unprecedentedly young age for a top-end starter to become a free agent. On the other, the lefty has been on the injured list for more than a month owing to a hamstring strain. He didn’t pitch all that well before landing on 15-day IL either. In 55 1/3 innings, Urias worked to a pedestrian 4.39 ERA, thanks primarily to a stunning uptick in home runs allowed; after yielding 0.98 homers per nine frames from ’19-’22, he’s allowed an average of 2.28 homers per nine innings in 2023.

That said, the rest of Urias’ numbers look quite similar to his peak output. His 23.3% strikeout rate is down a bit from the 24.7% he posted in 2019-22, but his 4.8% walk rate is notably better than his already strong 6.3% mark. His fastball velocity is right in line with last year’s level (when Urias notched a 2.16 ERA in 175 innings), as is his 10.8% swinging-strike rate. His 34.1% opponents’ chase rate remains strong.

The primary problem isn’t even an uptick in fly-balls, but rather in the percentage of those fly-balls that leave the yard. Entering the 2022 season, just 9.1% of the fly-balls allowed by Urias had become home runs. This year, it’s a staggering 20.3%. Broadly speaking, homer-to-flyball rate is susceptible to short-term spikes and tends to even out over a larger sample, but the uptick in homers hasn’t been well-timed. That’s doubly true given that for all of Urias’ success, he’s neither the flamethrowing powerhouse nor elite misser of bats that modern front offices covet. He’s succeeded thanks to elite command and by regularly limiting hard contact. Urias’ strikeout rates are typically a bit above average, but he’s never placed higher than the 67th percentile of MLB pitchers in overall strikeout rate.

That’s not to say Urias isn’t a desirable arm or won’t be a highly coveted pitcher. Prior to his injury, the MLBTR team had discussed possible contracts in excess of $200MM for the lefty, based both on his age and recent excellence. That’s perhaps a bit harder to see now, even if the current issue is a leg injury rather than an arm problem. Urias has only twice made 30 starts in a season, and he also has one major shoulder surgery already on his record (a 2017 procedure to repair a capsule tear).

A third consecutive 30-start season would’ve helped set aside a perceived lack of durability, but he won’t get there in 2023, even though he’s expected to return from the injured list as soon as this weekend. That’s not because of any arm troubles to date, and it should be noted that part of the reason for his lack of innings was some extreme workload management post-surgery that looks to have been effective, based on Urias’ 2021-22 results. Still, he hasn’t often worked a full starter’s slate of games, he won’t do it in 2023, and he hasn’t generated his typical results when healthy — even if most of the skill-oriented numbers remain similar to prior levels.

Urias will also have a qualifying offer to contend with, which isn’t true of every pitcher on these rankings. He’s undeniably talented and the clear youngest of the bunch, but it’d be easier to predict a massive long-term deal if he returns and starts producing more like he did in that aforementioned four-year peak.

6. Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies: Speaking of top-tier starters who haven’t performed up to expectations, the 30-year-old Nola finds himself in a precarious position. MLB’s consummate workhorse since his 2015 debut, Nola has pitched the third-most innings of the 2024 pitchers who’ve taken a big league mound since 2016 — his first full season in the Majors. Only Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer have topped Nola’s 1256 1/3 innings in that stretch.

For the majority of that time, Nola has operated on the periphery of ace-dom. He’s only a one-time All-Star and has never won a Cy Young, but the former No. 7 overall pick finished third place in 2017, seventh place in 2020 and fourth place just last year. During his 2017-22 peak, Nola notched a 3.48 ERA, 28.2% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 47.1% ground-ball rate. His 2022 season featured a terrific 29.1% strikeout rate and an elite 3.6% walk rate over the life of 205 innings — the second-most in all of baseball.

That version of Nola has been nowhere to be found in 2023. Through 105 2/3 innings, he’s posted a pedestrian 4.51 ERA with his lowest strikeout rate (23.9%) since his rookie season back in 2015. Nola’s 6.8% walk rate, while still a very strong mark, is his highest since 2020. He’s allowing more fly-balls than ever before, and unsurprisingly is allowing home runs at a career-worst rate (1.45 HR/9).

Fielding-independent metrics still believe Nola’s above-average strikeout rate, strong walk rate and ability to avoid hard contact ought to be translating to better results; his “expected” ERA is 3.53, per Statcast, while tools like FIP (4.28) and SIERA (4.00) agree he’s been short-changed a bit. Nola’s 65.1% strand rate, in particular, sits about eight percentage points below his career level and below the league average.

Heading into the season, a six- or seven-year deal seemed within reach for one of the game’s most durable and consistently above-average starting pitchers. He’s maintained the “durable” half of that equation, making 17 starts and averaging a hearty 6.22 innings per outing. The results haven’t been there, however, and Nola’s velocity is down about a half mile per hour on most of his pitches. It’s not the platform season he wanted, and even with the so-so results, he’ll surely still have a QO attached to him. There’s still an easy case for a long-term deal here, and a strong second half of the season would quiet a lot of these concerns. To this point, however, Nola has looked more like a mid-rotation starter than someone who’d be fronting a playoff staff.

7. Blake Snell, SP, Padres: Snell has been the best pitcher on the planet for the past month or so, generally erasing a terrible start to the season. This sort of Jekyll & Hyde performance is old hat for the former AL Cy Young winner, who closed out both the 2022 and 2021 seasons in dominant fashion, offsetting a wave of pedestrian starts in each instance. That endorsement of Snell’s past month isn’t even hyperbole; dating back to May 25, Snell has a comical 0.86 ERA with a 66-to-15 K/BB ratio in 42 innings. He’s fanned a massive 44.1% of his opponents against a better-than-average 8.1% walk rate.

Snell’s rollercoaster traits are nothing new, and they may scare some interested suitors in free agency. There’s no skirting the fact that he has a penchant for slow starts to the season, and when Snell is off his game, he can look lost. He doesn’t have pristine command in the first place, and walks become a particularly glaring issue when he’s in a rut. When he’s not as his best, Snell has a tendency to labor through short starts, which can tax a bullpen.

That said, here’s a look at Snell’s past 48 starts: 259 1/3 innings, 3.05 ERA, 33% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate, 0.90 HR/9, 36.9% ground-ball rate, .196 opponents’ average. The road he takes to get there may be infuriating at times, both for fans and his organization’s decision-makers, but Snell has clear top-of-the-rotation stuff. He’s currently riding a streak of four straight starts with double-digit strikeouts, during which he’s yielded just three runs.

The Padres can and very likely will make Snell a qualifying offer. He should reject while giving little, if any thought to the contrary. The qualifying offer and general inconsistency might hurt him, but there will also be teams who look at those factors as a possible avenue to signing a starter with genuine No. 1 talent at a cost that isn’t commensurate with those types of arms. Snell will pitch all of the 2024 season at age 31, and paired with his inconsistency, that might cap him at five years. But he should command $20MM per year over that five-year term, making a nine-figure deal within reach …. barring a second-half collapse that heightens concerns about the fluctuations in his performance.

8. Josh Hader, RP, Padres: Rumors of Hader’s demise as an elite closer last summer were greatly exaggerated, it seems. The four-time All-Star was struggling in the weeks leading up to his trade from Milwaukee to San Diego, and he didn’t help his cause when he allowed a dozen August runs following the swap. That slump was capped off by a six-run drubbing at the hands of a lowly Royals offense.

Since then, it’s been business as usual for Hader. The lefty quietly finished out the year with a 0.79 ERA in his final 11 1/3 innings. He was unscored upon from Sept. 7 through season’s end, and he went on to pitch another 5 1/3 shutout innings in the postseason, fanning 10 hitters in the process. Hader is now sitting on a sparkling 1.26 ERA. His 37.8% strikeout rate isn’t quite as high as his ridiculous 47.8% peak in 2019, but he still ranks among the league leaders in strikeout rate.

Since putting that six-run August meltdown against the Royals behind him, here’s Hader’s line (postseason included): 45 1/3 innings, 0.99 ERA, 38% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate, 29 saves.

Hader will be a year older in free agency than Edwin Diaz was when he set the relief pitcher record on a five-year, $102MM contract (which includes multiple opt-outs). That slight age gap will matter, but Hader has the longer and steadier track record of the two and could benefit from his handedness. So long as he keeps somewhere near this pace, he’ll take aim at making Diaz’s record short-lived.

9. Marcus Stroman, SP, Cubs: Stroman’s three-year, $71MM contract allows him to opt out of the final year this offseason. In doing so, he’d leave $21MM on the table, but there’s little doubt he’d be able to topple that mark in free agency. Stroman has already received a qualifying offer in his career, meaning he can’t receive a second one. He’s also the current MLB leader in bWAR (3.5) and third in the Majors in RA9-WAR (also 3.5). Through 102 innings, Stroman touts a 2.47 ERA and a 59.3% grounder rate that’s second only to Logan Webb among all qualified pitchers.

Good as Stroman’s results are, there’s some reason to be a bit skeptical on his earning power. He can surely outpace the $21MM he’d leave on the table by opting out, likely securing another multi-year deal in free agency. That said, Stroman’s profile hasn’t really changed since his last foray into the open market. He still has a below-average strikeout rate, and the lower-than-average walk rate he had last time around has crept up to about league average in 2023. He’s inducing more grounders than he has since 2018, but the primary reason for the drop in his ERA has been a career-low home run rate. Just 8.3% of the fly-balls allowed by Stroman have been homers — well shy of his 13.5% career mark.

Homer-to-flyball rate tends to stabilize over larger samples — Stroman was between 12.6% and 13.9% every year from 2018-22, for instance — so teams might essentially view him as the same pitcher he was in the 2021-22 offseason, just a couple years older. One factor working in Stroman’s favor is that the price of pitching has increased since then; Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt all helped advance that market last offseason. Bassitt’s three-year, $63MM deal with the Blue Jays should be of particular note. He secured that contract despite being hit with a QO that Stroman won’t have to contend with, and did so heading into his age-34 season. Next year will be Stroman’s age-33 season. He should at least be able to secure a three-year deal at a larger AAV than Bassitt received. A four-year deal with an AAV north of $20MM is also possible.

10. Jordan Montgomery, SP, Cardinals: Montgomery had a pair of rough starts in the season’s first six weeks, allowing seven and six runs in that pair of outings and ballooning his ERA in the process. Things have largely evened out though, and Montgomery’s numbers look just as solid as they did when he was establishing himself as a mid-rotation hurler in the Bronx, Through 92 innings, he’s posted a 3.52 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate and 46.6% grounder rate that all line up neatly with his 2021-22 production.

Montgomery pitched just 31 1/3 big league innings in 2018-19 due to Tommy John surgery and struggled in the shortened 2020 campaign upon his return from that operation. Since Opening Day 2021, however, he carries a 3.66 ERA and matching secondary marks (3.61 FIP, 3.88 SIERA) in 421 innings. If the Cardinals don’t trade Montgomery, he’ll be a natural qualifying offer candidate. He’d very likely reject that one-year offer in search of a multi-year deal in free agency. Montgomery isn’t an ace, but the market rewarded both Taillon (four years, $68MM) and Walker (four years, $72MM) with four-year contracts last winter. Neither had a QO attached to him, but Montgomery, who’ll turn 31 in December, has a better recent track record than both pitchers as well.

Of course, if the Cardinals remain out of the postseason hunt in late July, Montgomery will be a sought-after trade candidate. A trade to another club would render him ineligible to receive a QO. Even if the Cardinals hang onto him and make him a QO, he’ll still reach free agency in search of a comparable or even larger deal than the ones signed by Taillon, Walker and Bassitt. As with Stroman, it’s worth noting that Bassitt was older in free agency than Montgomery will be (by a margin of three years in Montgomery’s case).

Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Harrison Bader, Cody Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario, Sonny Gray, Teoscar Hernandez, Shota Imanaga, Joc Pederson, Eduardo Rodriguez (opt-out), Max Scherzer (player option), Jorge Soler (player option)

Padres Notes: Catcher, Musgrove, Snell

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Padres catcher Austin Nola has struggled through a slow start to the season, perhaps still feeling the effects of a broken nose suffered when he was hit in the face by a Michael Fulmer fastball late in spring training. The 33-year-old is out to just a 3-for-29 start, and manager Bob Melvin conceded after last night’s game that the Padres “might need to do things a little differently” with regard to their catching setup (link via Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune). As Melvin points out, Nola enjoyed a strong spring before that unfortunate plunking; in 30 plate appearances he slashed .333/.487/.467.

Presumably, “differently” entails allotting more time to longtime top catching prospect Luis Campusano. The 24-year-old hasn’t exactly set the world on fire himself in this season’s small sample, going 4-for-16 with a double and five punchouts in 17 plate appearances. In parts of four seasons in the Majors, Campusano has received just 109 plate appearances and posted a .198/.239/.277 batting line. However, he’s also posted excellent batted-ball metrics (90.9 mph average exit velocity, 48.6% hard-hit rate) and owns a .296/.364/.511 batting line in 684 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s never been given a legitimate run as the team’s primary catcher.

To this point, Acee notes, Campusano has been the catcher for righty Michael Wacha and lefty Ryan Weathers, with Nola lining up behind the dish to catch Yu Darvish, Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo and Blake Snell. Whether the Friars will continue to deploy their catchers based on specific pitcher pairings remains to be determined, but Melvin’s comments suggest that Campusano is likely in for a larger workload to an extent.

As far as the rotation is concerned, the Padres have had to patch things together a bit with Joe Musgrove opening the season on the injured list due to a broken toe he suffered in the weight room during spring training. He’s already made one rehab start, but Musgrove landed awkwardly on his shoulder while making a play in the field during that start and had his second rehab start pushed back as a result. The right-hander had a cortisone injection in that shoulder earlier this week, and he’ll be evaluated again today, Melvin said earlier in the week (link via FriarWire’s Bill Center).

If things go well today, Musgrove could make a second rehab start as soon as tomorrow. Given that he already tossed 4 1/3 innings in his first rehab outing, Musgrove could plausibly be ready for activation following a second rehab appearance, although the team has not yet indicated whether the plan is for him to make two or three rehab starts. Even if Musgrove makes another pair of rehab appearances, he could still be in line for his season debut in the final week of April, assuming all goes well from a health vantage point.

Weathers and Lugo have exceeded expectations in joining the starting staff, but the Padres are surely eager to get Musgrove back nonetheless. Musgrove would’ve likely been in line to serve as San Diego’s Opening Day starter, but that title wound up going to lefty Blake Snell, who’s struggled through his first three starts of a contract season.

Dennis Lin of The Athletic spoke with Snell about those struggles, noting that the lefty began his offseason throwing program earlier than usual in hopes of shaking off some of his increasingly characteristic early-season struggles. Snell tells Lin that he’s made a concerted effort to throw more fastballs in an effort to “get out of my own way” and to remind him of the quality of his secondary pitches. “My curveball and slider are really good because of how good the fastball is,” says Snell.

Thus far, it hasn’t worked out in Snell’s favor. He’s lasted just 13 total innings across three starts, pitching to a 6.92 ERA while walking 10 of is 66 opponents (15.2%). Command and pitch efficiency have been issues for Snell throughout his career, which helps to explain his penchant for relatively short starts. (Snell has averaged just 5.09 innings per start in his career.)

Snell, the 2018 American League Cy Young winner with the Rays, has stumbled out of the gate in each of the past two seasons before ultimately righting the ship and dominating late in the year. In 2021, he pitched to a 5.44 ERA with a 14.3% walk rate in 19 starts through late July before rebounding with 44 1/3 innings of 1.83 ERA ball and an 8.4% walk rate over his final seven starts (44 1/3 innings). His 2022 season played out similarly: a 5.60 ERA and 12.2% walk rate through late June, followed by a 2.53 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate in his final 17 starts.

Snell’s raw abilities are unquestionable. He’s a former Cy Young winner who can miss bats at an elite rate and, when he’s at his best, look like one of the game’s best pitchers. His ability to reach those peak levels with any degree of consistency, however, are far more questionable. Nonetheless, that repeatedly demonstrated ability to overwhelm opposing lineups — however inconsistent it may be — is what landed him in the No. 10 spot on yesterday’s edition of MLBTR’s 2023-24 Free Agent Power Rankings.

If he’s able to uncage his dominant form earlier than usual, Snell has the potential to be one of the most in-demand arms on next offseason’s market. His all-too-familiar peaks and valleys may give teams trepidation even he can round into form sooner than later, but left-handers who throw 96 mph and punch out nearly 30% of their opponents don’t grow on trees. And, other clubs will surely have their own ideas about how to get Snell to tap into that No. 1 starter upside with more regularity.

2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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Welcome to the year’s first edition of the 2023-24 MLB free agent power rankings!  With this series we will attempt to rank players who are on track for free agency after the 2023 season, by measure of their estimated earning power.

MLBTR will take periodic looks at the top of the class from now through the remainder of the season.  Season performance will start to influence these rankings, but 11 or 12 games into the season, it’s not much of a factor in the April edition.  By the end of the season, 2023 results will matter quite a bit.  A strong platform year can elevate any player’s status in free agency, just as a poor walk year can tank their stock.

For the full list of 2023-24 MLB free agents, click here.

Our power rankings are compiled collaboratively by myself and MLBTR writers Anthony Franco, Steve Adams, and Darragh McDonald.  Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given indications they may forgo the opportunity to return to the market.

The 2023-24 MLB free agent class is an odd one.  It’s headed up by Shohei Ohtani, the Angels’ incredible two-way superstar, but seems to fall short of last winter’s class that was led by Aaron Judge and four star shortstops.

As can often happen, the 2023-24 class has had some of its thunder stolen by extensions.  Notably, Manny Machado and Rafael Devers inked extensions in excess of $300MM.  Yu Darvish and Miles Mikolas came off the market this year as well.  Other players who would have been free agents after ’23 had they not signed extensions include Matt Olson, Tyler Glasnow, Luis Castillo, Ozzie Albies, Yoan Moncada, Ryan McMahon, and Kyle Freeland.  And just a few hours prior to the publishing of this list, the Cubs agreed to an odd three-year deal to retain Ian Happ, who had been ranked eighth.  Additional players from the list below may also come off the board with extensions before free agency opens in November.

Let’s get to it!

1.  Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Angels:  Ohtani signed with the Angels in December 2017, generating significant hype given his ability to serve as both a starting pitcher and regular designated hitter.  He’d done so for five years as a member of NPB’s Nippon Ham Fighters.  No one knew how this experiment would go, as even Babe Ruth quickly phased out pitching after he started setting home run records in 1919.

Scouts were skeptical, but Ohtani posted a huge 149 wRC+ in 367 plate appearances as a rookie, while also pitching to a 3.31 ERA in ten starts.  The performance netted him the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2018.  But aside from dealing with blisters that year, Ohtani came down with an elbow sprain in June.  He got a platelet-rich plasma injection, stopped pitching for the season, and continued hitting.  He returned to the mound for a brief outing in September that year, and then underwent Tommy John surgery after the season ended.

Ohtani was still able to hit in 2019, returning in May of that year and posting a 120 wRC+ on the season.  That campaign ended early with surgery to address a bipartite patella in his left knee.  The pandemic delayed the start of the 2020 season, resulting in a gap of nearly two years between Major League pitching appearances for Ohtani.

Based on where he went in my fantasy baseball drafts in March 2021, expectations were relatively low for Ohtani entering that season.  Ohtani shattered those expectations, winning the AL MVP award in ’21 and finishing second in ’22.  He posted a 146 wRC+ with 80 home runs in 1,305 plate appearances during that time.  Ohtani also made 51 starts across 296 1/3 innings, posting a 2.70 ERA and 31.4 K%.  His pitching performance netted a fourth place Cy Young finish in 2022.

Over the past two seasons, Ohtani accomplished what many thought simply could not be done in modern MLB.  Ohtani, who turns 29 in July, is simultaneously one of the best hitters and pitchers in MLB.  He was worth 17.5 WAR from 2021-22, edging out Aaron Judge for the best in the game.  Ohtani is a once-in-a-lifetime sensation at the peak of his abilities.

Ohtani is earning an arbitration-record $30MM this year, and he’s on track for free agency after the season.  Angels owner Arte Moreno was unwilling to part with Ohtani despite trade offers last summer, just as he was ultimately unwilling to sell his team this winter despite soliciting bids.  Moreno hopes to retain his two-way star, but told reporters, “Ohtani has to want to be here too.”  Moreno expressed willingness to go over the competitive balance tax threshold, but also admitted that the club has not had discussions with Ohtani.

The Angels have never had a winning season in Ohtani’s five years with the club, though that might change in 2023.  Asked about the extension possibility in February, agent Nez Balelo said, “I’ve always been open to it. But there’s several layers to this one, and Shohei’s earned the right to play through the year, explore free agency, and we’ll see where it shakes out.”

So, what actually drives Shohei Ohtani?  There’s evidence it’s not entirely money, since he chose to come to MLB at age 23.  His age limited him to a $2.3MM signing bonus, when waiting two more years could’ve resulted in over $100MM more.  Ohtani’s six other finalists in 2017 were the Mariners, Rangers, Cubs, Padres, Dodgers and Giants.  At the time, Balelo said, “While there has been much speculation about what would drive Shohei’s decision, what mattered to him most wasn’t market size, time zone or league but that he felt a true bond with the Angels.”

Still, many have noted that most of Ohtani’s finalists were on the West Coast.  And it’s certainly logical that after accomplishing so much as an individual, Ohtani will focus on joining a team he believes will be a perennial contender.  The Dodgers and Padres are oft-cited potential matches, and most expect the Mets to be heavily involved.  The Giants took two large swings at star players last winter, and the Yankees and Mariners shouldn’t be discounted.  I’m sure you could name a half-dozen at least semi-reasonable fits.  In terms of payroll commitments for 2024 and beyond, the Dodgers, Giants, and Mariners are much better-positioned than the Yankees, Padres, and Mets, though it’s difficult to picture Steve Cohen staying out of the fray.

The largest contract in MLB history remains Mookie Betts’ 12-year, $365MM extension in July 2020, though it included significant deferrals.  Ohtani’s teammate Mike Trout received $360MM in new money back in 2019.  So no one has even signed for $400MM yet, though the Padres reportedly offered Judge around $415MM and the Nationals offered Juan Soto $440MM.

No one doubts that Ohtani will become the first player to truly top the $400MM barrier, and common speculation is that he will reach $500MM.  Where will the bidding stop for a generational talent and marketing bonanza such as Ohtani?  I’m not willing to rule out a $600MM contract, though perhaps something in the $550MM range could represent a sweet spot.

The 2022-23 offseason included a trend toward extra-long contracts, with Machado, Trea Turner, and Xander Bogaerts all getting 11-year contracts paying through age 40.  The goal of those was to reduce the average annual value and accompanying CBT hit.  Going through age 40 would mean a 12-year contract for Ohtani, though I personally think a 14-year term has a chance of passing MLB’s scrutiny.  It’s been suggested that the Padres’ concept of paying Judge through age 44 wouldn’t have passed muster, but that’s not to say going through age 42 is off the table.

If Ohtani aims for maximum dollars and the $40MM standard only Judge has achieved on a long-term deal, I think 14 years and $560MM could be an end point.  There’s also an argument that since Ohtani is both an elite hitter and pitcher, he should land an average annual value in excess of $45MM or even $50MM.  Max Scherzer currently holds the record at $43,333,333.33 per year, though only Judge received $40MM for more than three years.

I could also be wildly wrong and Ohtani could fall well short of the $560MM guess.  Nor do I have any idea whether Ohtani will accept the largest deal proposed to him.  Buckle up for what could be the most fascinating and frenzied free agency in MLBTR’s 17-year history.  Our Ohtani page can be found here, which we’ll be beefing up with some additional quality content soon.

2.  Julio Urias, SP, Dodgers:  Urias may not generate the hype of Ohtani, but the lefty is a former prodigy in his own right and our clear #2 for earning power in this free agent class.  After being handled carefully as a minor leaguer, Urias made his Major League debut for the Dodgers at the age of 19, way back in 2016.  His pitch counts were kept low, and at the end of a successful season Urias made two playoff appearances for the Dodgers, including an NLCS start.

Unfortunately, Urias came down with a serious shoulder injury in June 2017, and anterior capsule surgery was required.  He went nearly 16 months between MLB appearances.  In 2019, Urias was again handled carefully, pitching out of the bullpen more often than the rotation.  That year, he was arrested on suspicion of domestic violence, according to the LAPD.  MLB ultimately issued a 20-game suspension.

Urias entered 2020 without restrictions, and wound up making ten starts in the pandemic-shortened season.  He was utilized creatively in the postseason that year, making two starts and four multi-inning relief appearances.  Urias memorably got the last seven outs in Game 6 of the 2020 World Series, freezing Willy Adames with a called strike for the last one and getting mobbed by his Dodgers teammates after winning it all.

Urias further turned a corner in 2021, topping 200 innings between the regular season and postseason – easily a career-high.  He won 20 games with a 2.96 ERA and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting.  He followed that up in 2022 with a third-place Cy Young finish and an NL-best 2.16 ERA.

Despite a 2.57 ERA from 2021-22 that ranked second among all qualified starters, Urias can’t quite be described as dominant.  His 25.2 K% during that time was still above-average, ranking 21st among starters.  His pinpoint control was even better, with a 5.5 BB% that ranked ninth.  Much of Urias’ success can be attributed to his ability to limit hard contact.  His BABIP was just .251 from 2021-22, third-lowest in MLB, and his Statcast hard-hit rate ranked second each year.  Urias is not particularly adept at getting groundballs, but fewer of the flyballs he allows leave the yard.

So Urias’ case as one of the best pitchers in baseball is based more on great control and weak contact than it is punching out batters.  His results are undeniable.  But the factor that sends his earning power through the roof is his age: he does not turn 27 until August.  Because players so rarely debut at the age of 19, it follows that a free agent ace entering his age-27 season is extremely uncommon.  We have seen it on the position player side, such as Bryce Harper and Manny Machado hitting free agency in advance of their age-26 campaigns.

Pitchers are seen as greater risks than position players, so Harper’s 13-year term probably isn’t happening with Urias.  On the other hand, last offseason’s trend for star free agents was all about reaching a specific total, with the years and average annual value being secondary.  Agent Scott Boras likely has a clear target to attempt to top: Stephen Strasburg’s $245MM, a contract he brokered in December 2019.  If getting there requires a term that would’ve previously been considered untenable, such as nine or ten years, that wouldn’t shock me.

It is worth noting that Strasburg’s contract has been a disaster due to injuries.  Urias’ shoulder surgery will be more than six years behind him when he hits free agency, but a clean bill of health will be crucial to any monster long-term deal.  There’s also the matter of Urias’ good-but-not-amazing strikeout rate in an age where some starters can whiff more than 30% of batters faced.  Urias doesn’t have that, and his fastball averages 93 miles per hour rather than 97.  So while I think Boras’ goal and expectation will be $250MM+, it remains to be seen whether Urias can secure the second-largest pitcher contract of all-time behind Gerrit Cole’s $324MM.

Where do the Dodgers stand on Urias?  The club has been perfectly willing to let star free agents leave, while also retaining other long-time Dodgers or occasionally plucking a top free agent from another team.  In other words, there’s no way to know their intentions with Urias based on their history.  I will say that I could see the potential risk being too high for the Dodgers, and it’s possible they focus their efforts on Ohtani or other top free agent pitchers.

3.  Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies:  Nola and Urias will make for an interesting comparison, if both reach the open market after the season.

Nola turns 30 in June, so he’s about three years older than Urias.  Nola was drafted seventh overall by the Phillies in 2014 out of Louisiana State, making his MLB debut the following year at the age of 22.  He was seen as more of a high floor than a high ceiling pitcher at the time.

Nola experienced an early-career hiccup in August of 2016, when he hit the IL for an elbow strain.  That injury ended Nola’s season after 20 starts.  Nola was able to recover from the strain without surgery, and has not gone on the IL for an arm injury since.  Furthermore, Nola has become the game’s preeminent workhorse, leading all pitchers in innings from 2018-22.

Nola is much more ace than innings guy, however, having turned a corner in 2018 with a third-place Cy Young finish.  He also finished seventh in 2020, and fourth in ’22.  Like Urias, Nola works around 93 miles per hour, but the Phillies’ righty has racked up strikeouts at an elite clip.  From 2020-22, Nola whiffed 30% of batters faced, ninth in MLB among qualified starters.  His control is even better than that of Urias, with a 4.9 BB% during that time that ranked fourth among starters.

Nola added his first playoff experience last year in the Phillies’ run to the World Series.  A pair of excellent starts helped the Phillies advance, though he faltered in the NLCS and World Series.

Nola’s groundball rate has slipped in recent years, and his Statcast marks haven’t been consistently excellent the way Urias’ have.  That means Nola’s home run rate and batting average on balls in play can fluctuate season-to-season.  That’s how he was able to post a 2.37 ERA in 2018 but a 4.63 mark in 2021 despite arguably demonstrating better skills in the latter season.

Back when Nola had three years of MLB service, he inked a four-year extension with the Phillies that included a club option on a fifth year, which the Phillies gladly exercised.  If he remains healthy and effective in 2023, a contract north of $200MM has to be in play if Nola reaches the open market.

Nola and the Phillies have shown mutual interest in a contract extension this year, with offers being exchanged in February.  Talks were tabled when an agreement could not be reached prior to the season, but both Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and agent Joe Longo spoke positively of rekindling discussions after the season.  That can be difficult when free agency is days rather than months or years away, but it has happened before and remains a possibility here.

4.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Orix Buffaloes: Back in February, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote that there is “strong belief among MLB teams” that Yamamoto will be posted by the Buffaloes after the season.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote, “Yamamoto is already a four-time NPB All-Star and has taken home both the Pacific League MVP Award and the Sawamura Award (Japan’s equivalent to MLB’s Cy Young Award) in each of the past two seasons.”

Adams compiled stats and various scouting reports suggesting Yamamoto could profile as an ace or something close to it in MLB as well.  But the kicker is that Yamamoto doesn’t turn 25 until August, so he’s two years younger than even Urias.  Pitchers this good and this young can basically only come through international free agency, and Yamamoto will be right at the age that allows for the full bidding war that Ohtani passed on when he came over.

Masahiro Tanaka comes to mind as a someone who moved from NPB to MLB at the same age and at a time when there was open bidding on posted players.  Tanaka’s deal with the Yankees was finalized in January 2014.  That was a seven-year, $155MM contract plus a $20MM posting fee.  That contract notably included an opt-out clause after the fourth season.

The current posting agreement calls for 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of the remainder.  Using a $200MM contract as an example, the posting fee would be $31.875MM.  The posting fee is not part of the competitive balance tax calculation, however, presenting a carrot to teams that carry payrolls high enough to be affected by the CBT.

Ten years after the Tanaka deal, I feel Yamamoto is indeed capable of reaching $200MM before accounting for a posting fee.  However, in this age where teams try to stretch out contracts as long as possible, given his youth Yamamoto might prefer either the flexibility to opt out, the total expiration of the contract while he’s still young enough to be a desirable free agent again, or both.  Though Ohtani will loom large over this offseason, Yamamoto getting posted would be a huge story in its own right.

5.  Matt Chapman, 3B, Blue Jays:  The conversation about Matt Chapman starts with his stellar defense at third base.  Since breaking in with the A’s in 2017, Chapman has snagged three Gold Glove awards, most recently in 2021.

Statcast Outs Above Average backs up Chapman’s defensive excellence, as he’s ranked in the top four at third base in 2017, ’18, and ’19 and first in ’21.  Pandemic-shortened season aside, the only interruption in Chapman’s run of top-shelf defense, at least according to the numbers, was in 2022.  He graded out as more of an average defender last year.  While Chapman’s reputation deservedly holds strong, a strong showing this year will only help his earning power in free agency.

From 2018-19 with the A’s, Chapman’s bat aligned with his glove to push him into 6-WAR superstar territory.  Chapman posted a 132 wRC+ during that time, mashing 60 home runs.  Chapman’s strikeout rate climbed to a dangerous level in the shortened 2020 season, and then he underwent surgery to repair a torn right hip labrum in September of that year.  Chapman had his worst year with the bat in 2021, and the A’s shipped him to Toronto in March 2022 as part of their post-lockout fire sale.

Chapman’s strikeout rate climbed and his batting average plummeted since 2020, though he’s remained an above-average hitter.  He posted a solid 117 wRC+ in 2022, with 90th percentile-range Statcast metrics suggesting room for more.  That has indeed been the case in the early going of 2023, though it’s only been 48 plate appearances at the time of this writing.

Chapman’s 30th birthday is approaching this month, so he’ll play next year at 31.  That could invite comparisons to the free agent contracts signed by Marcus Semien and George Springer, with seven and six-year terms respectively.

However, I keep harping on how the old free agency principles went out the window last winter, so Chapman and agent Scott Boras are hardly limited to a seven-year term.  It’s not difficult to picture a return to the 6-WAR level for Chapman this year and a contract expectation north of $200MM.

Asked about free agency in February, Chapman said all the right things, but there’s no known momentum toward a long-term deal with the Blue Jays.  With fellow third basemen Manny Machado and Rafael Devers staying put, Chapman has emerged as the top non-Ohtani free agent position player of the 2023-24 free agent class.

6.  Lucas Giolito, SP, White Sox: Giolito was drafted 16th overall by the Nationals in 2012 out of Harvard-Westlake High School.  He was a key piece on the trade that sent Adam Eaton to the Nats in December 2016.

Giolito struggled mightily in his first full season in the Majors in 2018, and then did a complete about-face in 2019 by making the All-Star team and finishing sixth in the AL Cy Young voting.  He finished seventh and 11th in the years that followed, posting a 3.47 ERA with a 30.7 K% from 2019-21.

Giolito’s performance fell off quite a bit in 2022.  His average fastball velocity dropped from 93.9 miles per hour to 92.6, and his strikeout and walk rates both went in the wrong direction.  While Giolito’s spin rates did go down quite a bit with the June 2021 sticky stuff crackdown, that’s overly simplistic as a complete explanation for his decline.  As John Foley of Pitcher List wrote, “Rather than it being one clear issue to blame, it seems Giolito dealt with a number of seemingly smaller things – perhaps the early season core injury, the COVID illness, the new bulk on his frame, or the changed ability to grip the ball, or some combination thereof – that resulted in subtle mechanical tweaks that decreased the quality of his stuff, reduced the deception in his delivery, and broke down how well his pitches tunneled together.”

It’s far too early to tell whether Giolito will right the ship in 2023.  And even if Giolito doesn’t come all the way back to his 2019-21 levels, he reinvented himself once before, and there are teams that have had more success coaxing the most out of starting pitchers than the White Sox.  For all the extensions the White Sox have worked out, a deal with Giolito doesn’t appear to be in the cards.  Giolito, still only 29 in July, figures to secure an opt-out if his 2023 performance disappoints.

7.  Teoscar Hernandez – RF, Mariners:  Hernandez was signed by the Astros for $20K out of the Dominican Republic in 2011.  The club shipped Hernandez and Nori Aoki to the Blue Jays for Francisco Liriano at the 2017 trade deadline.  Prior to that season, Hernandez was considered a 55-grade prospect by Baseball America.

Jose Bautista’s departure opened up a spot for Hernandez in 2018, and he became a starter at the outfield corners for the Jays.  After a couple years of slightly above-average offensive production, Hernandez turned a corner in 2020 with a 142 wRC+ and 16 homers in 207 plate appearances.  That power was no fluke, as Hernandez posted a 131 wRC+ from 2021-22 with 57 home runs, cutting his strikeout rate a bit as an added bonus.  He picked up Silver Slugger awards and MVP votes in both ’20 and ’21.

Overall as a hitter, Hernandez is known for big power, top of the chart Statcast metrics, a still-high strikeout rate, and a middling walk rate.  Though he has a strong arm, Hernandez’s right field defense typically grades as below-average.  Since 2020, the total package has resulted in about 4 WAR per 650 plate appearances.  Hernandez has not actually reached that plate appearance plateau, however, as he’s had IL stints for multiple oblique strains.  He’s set to turn 31 in October.

Seeking a controllable bullpen arm and perhaps some payroll flexibility, the Blue Jays traded Hernandez to the Mariners last November for setup man Erik Swanson as well as prospect Adam Macko.  The Mariners have given no signal an extension is in the works for Hernandez, and they beat him in an arbitration hearing in February.  He may wind up a one-year rental for Seattle.

As a free agent, Hernandez gives off some Nick Castellanos vibes, though we think he can top that player’s $100MM deal.  Hernandez lost a key competitor in the market with Ian Happ signing a three-year extension with the Cubs.

8.  Jordan Montgomery, SP – Cardinals: Montgomery, a 30-year-old lefty, was drafted by the Yankees in the fourth round out of the University of South Carolina back in 2014.  He was able to land the team’s fifth starter job out of camp as a rookie in 2017, though he was not needed until April 12th.

Montgomery had a strong year for the 2017 Yankees despite getting pushed out of the rotation occasionally due to the team’s trades, putting up a 3.88 ERA in 29 starts and finishing sixth in the AL Rookie of the Year voting.

Montgomery opened 2018 as the Yankees’ fifth starter once again, but unfortunately went down for Tommy John surgery in June.  His recovery resulted in a 16.5 month gap between MLB appearances, as the lefty got in a couple of brief September appearances in ’19.  Pandemic year aside, Montgomery returned to his rookie-year level of performance with a solid 2021 season for New York.

At the trade deadline last year, the Yankees made the surprising choice to ship Montgomery to the Cardinals for center fielder Harrison Bader, who was on the IL at the time.  The jury is still out on that trade, but thus far in 13 starts for the Cardinals running into this year, Montgomery has posted a 2.97 ERA.  He also contributed a scoreless appearance for the Cards in last year’s Wild Card game.

Montgomery has bumped up his velocity post Tommy John, now working above 93 miles per hour on average.  Last year he posted a 21.8 K% that improved when he joined the Cardinals, as well as a fine 5% walk rate that fits with his strong control.  It’ll be interesting to see if Montgomery can continue to push his strikeout rate forward, which would only help his earning power.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco and Steve Adams pushed for Montgomery to get a spot on this list, suggesting a strong season could vault him past the new Jameson Taillon–Taijuan Walker $70MM tier, perhaps to the $100MM range.  He’s got upside to climb as high as sixth in our power rankings this year.

9.  Josh Hader, RP – Padres:  Hader was a 19th round draft pick by the Orioles out of Maryland’s Old Mill High School back in 2012.  At the 2013 trade deadline, the Orioles sent Hader, L.J. Hoes, and a competitive balance round A pick to the Astros for Bud Norris.  Two years later, however, the Astros sent Hader, Adrian Houser, Brett Phillips, and Domingo Santana to the Brewers for Mike Fiers, Carlos Gomez, and cash.  So that makes two players on this list who were traded away as Astros prospects by Jeff Luhnow.

Hader made his MLB debut for the Brewers in 2017 as a reliever.  At the time, he was still thought to be a starter long-term.  However, as sometimes happens, Hader was so good in the bullpen that the Brewers were never willing or able to move him back into a starting role.  He made his first All-Star team with a dominant 2018, posting an obscene 46.7 K% and finishing seventh in the Cy Young voting.  Hader was used as a multi-inning weapon that year, getting more than three outs 33 times and averaging 1.47 innings per appearance.

The following year, Hader replicated his huge strikeout rate and made another All-Star team.  It was also the last time he averaged more than an inning per appearance.  He racked up 37 saves and inched closer to being used in a traditional stopper role.  Hader made All-Star teams again in ’21 and ’22.

At last year’s trade deadline, three games up in the NL Central, the Brewers attempted to thread the needle by trading Hader to the Padres.  In theory, they could shed some payroll in ’22 and ’23, replace Hader in the bullpen with Taylor Rogers, and pick up prospects Esteury Ruiz and Robert Gasser along the way.  While that plan did not pan out for Milwaukee, Hader also had a rough entry to his Padres career.  He’d already torched his ERA in two appearances prior to the trade, and then shortly after joining the Padres allowed 12 earned runs in three innings.

Hader then righted the ship for the Padres, closing out the regular season by allowing one run in 11 1/3 innings.  He then dropped an additional 5 1/3 scoreless innings in a dominant postseason.  The Padres had no problem paying Hader $14.1MM for his final arbitration year in ’23.

Hader is a lanky 29-year-old lefty who has generally worked in the 95-97 mile per hour range.  He remains capable of striking out more than 40% of batters faced, allowing 10-11% to reach base via the free pass.  The walks can be less than ideal, and Hader has also been burned by the longball at times.  He’s a flyball pitcher, made worse by a 14% career home run per flyball rate.  In a 60-inning season it would be normal for Hader to allow seven or eight home runs, and in 2019 he gave up 15 bombs.

Despite those flaws, Hader can still be one of baseball’s most dominant relievers, hugely valuable for teams with postseason expectations.  Edwin Diaz’s record five-year, $102MM deal could be in play for Hader with a big year, or perhaps he could land in the $80-90MM range occupied by Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman in the 2016-17 offseason.

10.  Blake Snell, SP – Padres: Snell, 31 in December, was drafted 52nd overall by the Rays in 2011 out of Shorewood High School in Washington.  He was a supplemental draft pick the Rays received for the loss of free agent Brad Hawpe.

Prior to his 2016 Major League debut, Snell ascended to become a consensus top-15 prospect in the game.  The lefty didn’t really settle into the Rays’ rotation until the end of 2017.  2018 was a special year for Snell, as he won the AL Cy Young award, also making the All-Star team and grabbing MVP votes.  His 1.89 ERA topped the American League, and he won 21 games while pitching a career-high 180 2/3 innings.  That was the year Snell’s strikeout rate shot upward past 30%, a level he’s maintained since.  Snell’s dominant 2018 performance led to a five-year, $50MM contract extension prior to 2019.

In July of 2019, Snell underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery, knocking him out for nearly two months.  He made it through the shortened 2020 season unscathed, famously getting pulled by manager Kevin Cash in Game 6 of the World Series after 73 pitches and 5 1/3 innings, having allowed one run on two hits.

Two months later, the Rays moved on from Snell, trading him to the Padres for four players.  He tallied 256 2/3 innings from 2021-22, including time missed for gastroenteritis and multiple groin strains.

Snell received a cortisone shot for his elbow in February 2020, but technically he hasn’t been on the IL for an arm injury since his surgery nearly four years ago.  The knock on Snell is less health and more that he’s never been one to go deep into games.  He averaged over 5.8 innings per start in his Cy Young season, but has otherwise come in south of 5.4.  And from 2019-21, he managed only 4.7 innings per start.  Part of the issue is Snell’s walk rate, which sits north of 10% for his career and can climb above 12%.  In 2022, the average starting pitcher worked 5.2 innings per start, walking 7.5% of batters.

As a lefty working at 95-96 miles per hour, Snell still has the ability to dominate, as evidenced by his high strikeout rates.  And the game has been trending toward shorter starts, with teams increasingly reluctant to let their starter face a lineup a third time.  Snell’s 5.33 innings per start in 2022 ranked 81st in MLB among those with at least 15 starts.  While that’s not impressive, it also wasn’t far off from Charlie Morton (5.55), Jameson Taillon (5.53), Nathan Eovaldi (5.46), Taijuan Walker (5.42), Lucas Giolito and Luis Severino (5.37).  It’s also ahead of several players who got $12MM+ per year in free agency, like Jose Quintana, Ross Stripling, and Mike Clevinger.

Perhaps Snell’s Cy Young season created unreasonable expectations, but he remains a very good pitcher with ample postseason experience.  With a typical season, he should be able to top Taijuan Walker’s four-year, $72MM deal.

Honorable Mentions

Other players considered for this list, or who have a chance to play their way onto it, include Max Scherzer, Luis Severino, Tyler Mahle, Sean Manaea, Harrison Bader, Michael Conforto, Amed Rosario, and Jung Hoo Lee.  Of course, one of the best parts of baseball is surprising performances, and we’ll revisit the 2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings every month.

The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast Is Back!

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The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast, last heard in 2016 hosted by the esteemed Jeff Todd, has relaunched!  Simon Hampton is now your host, and we’re very excited to bring the new show to you every week.

Episode 1 is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well; use this link to find the show on Spotify and this one for Apple.  You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Simon Hampton is joined by Anthony Franco to discuss a wide range of topics around the baseball world:

  • An early look at the trade deadline possibilities, particularly focusing on Shohei Ohtani and what it make take for the Angels to listen to offers on the two-way star (3:19)
  • Jake Cronenworth signed a seven-year, $80MM extension with the Padres, so what does that mean for San Diego’s chances at extending other players such as Juan Soto, Josh Hader and Blake Snell? (7:31)
  • It’s easy to over-react to results in the first week of the season, so at what point is it reasonable to become concerned with a team’s performance? And what about the players? (12:30)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Could the Marlins match up with the Yankees on a trade involving Oswald Peraza? And which of Miami’s pitchers could be in play at the deadline? (16:56)
  • Will the Cardinals make a move to bolster their rotation at some stage this season? And if so, which players could be in play? (21:24)
  • The Dodgers took a step back this winter, so how aggressive will they be at the deadline this year? And are they clearing payroll space for a crack at Shohei Ohtani? (26:09)

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Latest On Orioles’ Deadline Outlook

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The Orioles surprisingly enter deadline season with some questions about the course of action they could take over the next few weeks. Baltimore looked like a slam-dunk seller as recently as ten days ago, but an eight-game win streak that has pulled them within two games of a Wild Card spot at least raises the possibility of the club reconsidering that approach.

It’s unfamiliar territory for general manager Mike Elias, who has been overseeing a complete rebuild since he was hired in November 2018. The baseball operations leader acknowledged as much in a chat with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic yesterday, saying the O’s could be in position for “one of the more flexible trade deadlines that we’ve encountered.” Elias acknowledged the club’s playoff chances remain low given the strength of the AL East but noted the next few weeks of games could have an impact on the team’s plans.

Even if the O’s continue to play well through the end of the month, the front office is unlikely to push many chips in to add impending free agents. Both Rosenthal and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com float the possibility of Baltimore looking to acquire players under control beyond this season, though. Elias told Rosenthal the front office is of the belief the O’s “2023 picture is increasingly bright,” and Rosenthal writes that team officials have downplayed the chance of parting with controllable core pieces like Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays in the wake of their solid run.

The Orioles are one of a handful of teams in the middle-ground of the standings that could resist strict bucketing into “buyer” or “seller” territory. There’s room for the club to explore dealing away players on shorter-term contracts — particularly if they stumble over the next three weeks and fall a bit out of the playoff picture — while remaining open to opportunities to add more controllable talent. In such a scenario, first baseman Trey Mancini would seemingly be the top trade candidate, as he’s likely to decline his end of a mutual option and hit free agency at the end of the season.

Mancini is the only notable impending free agent on the roster, but Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com notes that starter Jordan Lyles could be made available as well. The right-hander signed a one-year, $7MM guarantee over the offseason. That deal contains an $11MM club option for next season, but that seems likelier to be bought out. Through 17 starts, Lyles has tossed 98 innings of 4.50 ERA ball. He’s thrown plenty of strikes but posted below-average strikeout (18.9%) and ground-ball (40.6%) rates. Lyles is a durable source of innings, and Kubatko writes he’s been a strong veteran mentor for the team’s younger starters. Nevertheless, the Orioles aren’t likely to take him off the table if they field offers on short-term veterans.

As for the possibility of simultaneously looking to add controllable talent, infield and/or rotation pickups could be areas of interest. Rosenthal suggests the O’s may be a fit for Blake Snell if the Padres look to deal a starter to free breathing room against the luxury tax. Whether San Diego is willing to subtract from its rotation depth remains to be seen, but the Friars have virtually no payroll space to accommodate midseason additions if they’re intent on not surpassing the base tax threshold.

San Diego is expected to seek outfield help this summer, and Rosenthal reports they’ve had interest in Baltimore’s Anthony Santander in the past. Santander is playing this season on a $3.15MM salary and is arbitration-eligible through 2024; Snell is counting for $10MM against the Friars’ tax ledger, although his actual salary is a bit higher at $13.1MM. He’s under contract for $16.6MM next year before hitting free agency. Baltimore seems unlikely to accept a straight Snell for Santander swap, but they have virtually no commitments on the books next season and could look into an opportunity to buy low on Snell as part of a larger deal.

Feinsand, meanwhile, hears industry chatter the O’s might try to make a push for Marlins starter Pablo López. Unlike Snell, López is eminently affordable ($2.45MM salary) and arbitration-eligible through 2024. It’s easy to see the appeal for Baltimore, but the vast majority of teams around the league would be involved in Miami were to make López available. The Fish entered play Tuesday four games back in the National League Wild Card race and don’t seem likely to shop the 26-year-old over the next few weeks anyhow.

In either event, Snell and López serve as examples of myriad possibilities Elias and his staff could consider. Baltimore probably won’t be motivated enough to outbid bona fide contenders for top-of-the-market trade candidates like Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas, but they’re at least in position to entertain a wide range of outcomes for the first time in a long while.

The Padres, The Luxury Tax And The Trade Deadline

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The 45-31 Padres possess baseball’s fifth-best winning percentage (.592) and fifth-best run differential (+63). They’ve achieved this success despite receiving middle-of-the-pack production from first base and designated hitter in addition to well below-average offensive production from center field and right field. The Friars have also played the entire season thus far without star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. (although Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that Tatis could begin hitting off a tee within the next two weeks and embark on a rehab assignment a couple weeks after that).

Given their success to date, the clear win-now direction of their recent slate of transactions and the generally aggressive mindset of baseball operations president A.J. Preller, one would expect the Padres to be in the market for upgrades as the Aug. 2 trade deadline approaches. They were reportedly seeking corner outfield upgrades even before the season started, and this year’s rough showing from center fielder Trent Grisham (.188/.287/.321 through 281 plate appearances) creates even further uncertainty in the outfield.

The problem for the Padres, as has been well documented in the past, is that their backs are up against a luxury-tax barrier that ownership seems unwilling to surpass for what would be a second consecutive season. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez estimates San Diego’s current slate of luxury tax obligations to be $229.4MM — just $600K shy of this year’s newly increased $230MM threshold. Agents I’ve spoken to who talked with the Padres late in the offseason said the team indeed suggested there was no real room to add to the Major League payroll, given their proximity to the tax line.

All of that meshes with reports that we’ve seen for more than a year now: that the Padres would love to shed the contracts of Wil Myers and/or Eric Hosmer and have explored attaching prospects of note in an effort to do just that. Those efforts, however, have come up empty — and it seems unlikely that the Padres would have any more success now. Myers has been on the injured list since May 31 due to a knee injury and was hitting just .234/.276/.306 in 134 plate appearances before being shelved. He’s owed the remainder of a $20MM salary this year plus a $1MM buyout on a 2023 option. Hosmer came out of the gates on fire but has faceplanted with a .238/.294/.330 slash in 201 plate appearances since May 1. He’s being paid $20MM this season and is owed $39MM total from 2023-25.

Every deadline season is different, and perhaps the Padres will finally beat the odds and manage to unload one of those cumbersome contracts, but with neither player doing much to improve his stock, that feels unlikely. If the Padres can’t manage to find a taker for either Myers or Hosmer but still wish to improve at the deadline, it stands to reason that they’ll have to explore other creative scenarios.

The simplest scenario for the Friars, despite the manner in which their pitching depth evaporated late in the 2021 season, would be to deal from their Major League rotation — either in order to acquire an outfielder of note or in order to clear the requisite payroll to do so in a separate trade. The Padres have an enviable starting staff of Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Sean Manaea, Mike Clevinger, Blake Snell and breakout rookie MacKenzie Gore. The staff is deep enough that righty Nick Martinez, who signed an opt-out-laden four-year deal in free agency this winter, has been working out of the bullpen at times in recent weeks.

It’s true that the Padres’ upper-level depth in the minors isn’t exactly at a high point. Adrian Martinez was traded to the A’s in the Manaea deal. Ryan Weathers and Reiss Knehr have pitched poorly in Triple-A. There’s risk in dealing from the big league staff, as a few injuries (and/or workload fatigue from Gore) could radically alter the picture. That said, a trade involving someone from the current staff could also net some lower-end pitching depth to help serve as insurance upon which to lean in the event of further injuries. It also shouldn’t be ruled out that the Padres could deal from the current rotation and reallocate some of that space to yet another newly acquired veteran arm; they’ve already been linked to Reds ace Luis Castillo, for instance.

Dennis Lin of The Athletic wrote in his latest mailbag that of the team’s current starters, Snell is the likely preference if they’re to make a trade. That makes good sense, as he carries a $10MM luxury hit for the Padres and has underperformed this season after missing significant time with an adductor strain to begin the year. Snell has at times looked quite strong this season, and fielding-independent pitching metrics feel he’s been better than his 5.60 ERA. Still, Snell has walked 12.2% of his opponents and regularly run up lofty pitch counts early in games, leading to an average of just five innings per outing.

Despite the struggles, Snell isn’t far removed from a far more promising stretch of games. Last year’s 4.20 ERA in 27 starts looks underwhelming, but he posted a 3.24 ERA with a 33.3% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate following last year’s All-Star break –a stretch that was capped off with 44 1/3 frames of 1.83 ERA ball. Snell completed seven innings and logged double-digit strikeout totals four times in that span, looking every bit like the former Cy Young winner he is. Snell is earning $12.5MM this season and has a $16MM salary for the 2023 season, and another club might feel it’s worth taking the financial risk to buy low on such a talented arm. Lin writes that the Padres have been “frustrated” by Snell’s lack of performance.

Other members of the rotation would also be more difficult to move. There’s no chance the Padres would move Musgrove amid a potential Cy Young campaign. Darvish has been their second-best starter, making him tough to replace, and he’s also the most expensive of the bunch, making him tougher for other teams to take on. Clevinger’s $5.75MM luxury number doesn’t give the Padres as much financial leeway as Snell would, and he’s pitched even less this season than Snell (albeit also more effectively). Manaea has been solid and would surely draw interest, but the team probably doesn’t want to remove an as-advertised mid-rotation arm that was only acquired a couple months ago — even if he’s a free agent this winter. Martinez’s opt outs make him an unappealing trade candidate. Snell strikes the balance of track record, upside and also current expendability that could make a team bite, even if it’d be selling low for the Padres.

Where else could the Friars look to get creative, though? Righty Dinelson Lamet is currently pitching out of the bullpen in Triple-A while earning a $4.775MM salary. He was clobbered for 10 runs in 8 1/3 big league innings earlier this year and hasn’t been the same since returning from Tommy John surgery, but he’s a big arm who could potentially appeal to another club willing to take on some money. No one should expect him to replicate his otherworldly 2.09 ERA, 34.8% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate from the shortened 2020 season, but those numbers are illustrative of the talent Lamet possesses. Could they find a taker for an injured Drew Pomeranz, who’s in the third season of a four-year, $34MM contract? Again, it’d be selling low on an immensely talented arm.

Looking up and down the roster, the Padres may not love the idea of parting with Ha-Seong Kim, who has become a useful bench piece thanks to standout defense at three positions and a passable, if unexciting, .226/.311/.345 batting line (91 wRC+). But the former KBO superstar hasn’t yet lived up to expectations since signing a four-year, $28MM contract in free agency, and the associated $7MM luxury hit that comes with that deal is more significant for the Padres now than it was at the time of his signing. Once Tatis returns, Kim will likely see his playing time reduced considerably.

However it plays out, the Padres have a difficult road ahead as the trade deadline approaches. They’ll either need to convince trade partners to pay the salary of any upgrades they acquire (thus increasing the prospect cost to make those deals), finally succeed in dumping an onerous contract, or sell low on some pricey but valuable depth in a manner that could come back to haunt them.  The alternatives are to simply stand pat, hoping that the return of Tatis and some improvements from the likes of Snell, Myers and Hosmer will be sufficient upgrades — or to bite the bullet and cross over into luxury territory.

Padres Activate Blake Snell From Injured List

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TODAY: As expected, Snell was activated from the IL.  To create roster space, the Padres also announced that left-hander Ray Kerr was optioned to Triple-A.

MAY 16: The Padres have been without lefty Blake Snell all season due to an adductor strain, but the 2018 AL Cy Young winner is set to make his 2022 debut on Wednesday, acting manager Ryan Christenson told reporters yesterday (Twitter link via Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune). San Diego will roll out Mike Clevinger, Snell and Yu Darvish this Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Snell’s return will temporarily push young lefty MacKenzie Gore into the bullpen, though it seems that’ll simply amount to skipping his turn in the rotation just once before he’s considered for another start. The Friars are lined up for a daunting stretch of 40 games in 42 days, Acee points out.

Snell’s return ought to provide a boost to a San Diego staff that’s already been among the better units in the game. Padres starters are tied with the Twins for the game’s ninth-best ERA at 3.50, which is a dead-on match for their seventh-ranked 3.50 FIP. They’re also fourth in MLB with a 25% strikeout rate and have been a respectable, albeit middle-of-the-pack group in terms of walk rate, ranking 15th with a 7.8% mark.

Snell’s first season in San Diego didn’t go as hoped. The now-29-year-old southpaw turned in a 4.20 ERA over the life of 128 2/3 innings and also had a couple of stints on the injured list — including a late-September stay for the same adductor issue that plagued him earlier this year.

However, while Snell’s composite numbers may not stand out, the lefty was back to his Cy Young-caliber form down the stretch in 2021. Snell scrapped his once-dominant changeup — which had been getting hammered last year — on Aug. 3 and ramped up his usage of sliders and four-seamers. The result was a dominant 1.83 ERA and 39.4% strikeout rate with a solid 8.5% walk rate — all marks that dwarfed his numbers through the end of July (5.44 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, 14.3% walk rate). If that’s the version of Snell the Padres welcome back this week, an already-strong rotation could develop into a powerhouse.

A short-term shift to the ’pen for Gore may frustrate some fans after the former No. 3 overall pick has debuted with a 2.42 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate through his first 26 innings, but it ostensibly appears to be little more than workload management. Gore pitched just 50 1/3 innings of actual game activity last year, struggling to the point that the Padres sent him to their Spring Training facility in mid-June to sort out his mechanics. He was out of games until the middle of August, when he returned to the Padres’ Rookie-ball affiliate and then worked his way back up to Double-A.

There’s been no issue for Gore thus far in 2022. Once lauded as the game’s top pitching prospect, the 23-year-old has made good on that billing both in Triple-A (five shutout innings, seven strikeouts, no walks) and in the Majors (2.42 ERA, 28-to-9 K/BB ratio in 26 frames). The Padres could take some steps to occasional measures such as this one to prevent too stark an innings increase, but so long as Gore continues to pitch with this level of effectiveness, it’ll be hard to keep him out of the rotation.

San Diego has been deploying a six-man rotation thus far, with Joe Musgrove, Darvish, Sean Manaea, Gore, Clevinger and offseason acquisition Nick Martinez all starting games. Acee tweeted last week that the team “tentatively” planned to continue a six-man rotation following the return of Snell, who’d effectively push Martinez to the bullpen.

That’s notable in and of itself, as Martinez signed a surprising four-year, $25.5MM contract with the Padres this winter on the heels of an outstanding run in Japan. The former Rangers righty not only landed that unexpected guarantee but secured opt-out clauses after each year of the contract. That essentially allows him to become a free agent if he’s able to approximate his NPB excellence in MLB but gives him a hearty sum on which to fall back if he struggles in his return to North American ball. Martinez tossed 378 2/3 innings of 3.02 ERA ball in three seasons overseas, including a dominant 1.60 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate in 140 innings with the SoftBank Hawks last year.

So far in 2022, however, Martinez has had his share of tough outings. He’s pitched 30 2/3 innings with a respectable 4.40 ERA, but his 11.5% walk rate and 1.76 HR/9 mark are both well worse than the league average. He’s posted solid strikeout and ground-ball rates (23.1% and 46.4%, respectively), but he’ll need to curb the free passes and the long balls if he’s to fully establish himself.

Even if Martinez is bullpen-bound for the time being, that shouldn’t be expected to close the book on him as a starter. The Padres made a notable investment in him this winter even amid luxury-tax concerns, and it’s of course likely that other injuries on the pitching staff will pop up and give Martinez further opportunities to start some games. The number of times he takes the hill to start a game is certainly worth monitoring, though; Martinez’s 2023, 2024 and 2025 salaries would all increase by $1MM if he makes 20 starts.

Padres Promote MacKenzie Gore, Place Blake Snell On 10-Day IL

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5:45PM: The Padres have officially announced the moves, putting Snell on the 10-day IL (retroactive to April 11) with a left adductor strain.

3:49PM: Padres manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including AJ Cassavell and Kevin Acee) that Snell has been placed on the 10-day IL, and Gore will indeed start Friday’s game.

12:33PM: The Padres are facing some early-season uncertainty in the starting rotation. Left-hander Blake Snell was scratched from what was supposed to be his first start on Sunday after experiencing adductor tightness. Snell hasn’t been placed on the injured list, but it’s expected he’ll need some time on the shelf to recover.

With Snell’s spot in the rotation up again tomorrow night against the Braves, it looks as if MacKenzie Gore will get his first big league look. AJ Cassavell of MLB.com tweeted Tuesday that Gore had joined the team’s taxi squad, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote last night the organization expects to soon place Snell on the IL and start Gore in his place.

Gore’s prospect stock has fluctuated considerably in recent seasons. The third overall pick in 2017, he carved up low minors hitters over his first two professional campaigns. In the process, Gore emerged as a potentially elite young talent. Heading into the 2020 season, each of Baseball America, FanGraphs and The Athletic slotted Gore as the sport’s top pitching prospect. All three outlets ranked him among the top six minor league talents overall.

Having reached Double-A late in 2019, Gore looked as if he could make his MLB debut at some point that season. The pandemic wound up necessitating a shorter schedule and a lack of minor league play, however, and Gore spent the year at the alternate training site. Reports emerged that he’d gotten out of whack mechanically, with Baseball America writing over the 2020-21 offseason there were concerns about both his control and a velocity dip.

Those red flags persisted last year, as Gore walked an alarming 12.5% of opponents against a dramatically reduced 18.8% strikeout rate in six Triple-A starts. The Padres reassigned him to their Arizona complex for some lower-pressure work to get back on track, and he returned to an affiliate late in the season with a pair of Double-A starts. He walked another eight batters in nine innings but also punched out 16.

There’s no question Gore’s inconsistent past couple seasons have dealt some kind of hit to his prospect stock. He’s no longer a consensus top ten minor leaguer, nor has he reached the majors as quickly as it had once seemed he would. Yet Gore only turned 23 years old in February and is only two years removed from being perhaps the best pitcher in the minors. He’s certainly still a legitimate prospect, one whom Keith Law of the Athletic slotted #59 overall this offseason.

Law wrote that each of Gore’s fastball, changeup and slider are still plus pitches and that he’s athletic enough to yet emerge as a top-of-the-rotation arm if he finds more mechanical consistency. BA slotted the southpaw fourth in the San Diego system this winter, praising his high-octane repertoire and noting that his “misses off the plate were much smaller” late last year than they’d been early in that season. Gore has only made one appearance so far this year, but he didn’t issue a single free pass in five scoreless innings with Triple-A El Paso last week, fanning seven of the 16 batters he faced.

Gore is already on the 40-man roster, so a Snell IL placement would be sufficient to accommodate his call-up. How long he’d remain in the rotation is to be seen, but Acee writes that both Snell and right-hander Mike Clevinger are expected to require two minor league rehab starts before returning to the majors. The team announced last night that Clevinger, who missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery and opened this year on the IL due to some soreness in his right knee, will make his first rehab start today with High-A Lake Elsinore.

Blake Snell Scratched From Start

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8:50 PM: Snell is likely headed to the injured list, per Cassavell (via Twitter). Crismatt tossed three scoreless innings in Snell’s place today. The Padres play the next ten games without a day off, so they will certainly move some roster pieces around if Snell is going to be out for that time.

3:38 PM: San Diego Padres starter Blake Snell was a last-minute scratch from his first scheduled start of the season today. The issue is left adductor tightness, the same injury that troubled Snell at the end of last season, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell (via Twitter).

Nabil Crismatt took the ball to start the ballgame in Snell’s stead. The 27-year-old swingman should be fresh, as he has yet to appear in a game so far this season. Today marks the first start of his Major League career, though he was mostly a starter coming up through the Mets’ minor league system. Crismatt owns a 3.71 ERA in 51 career appearances out of the pen.

Crismatt would be a candidate to stay in the rotation for a turn or two if Snell ends up needing a stint on the injured list. Reiss Knehr would be a prospective call-up if the Padres decide to go that route. They just dealt away Chris Paddack, but of course, they wouldn’t have done so with the expectation of needing just five starters to get through the season. They no doubt have a hierarchy in place for just this sort of contingency.

Snell’s first season in San Diego didn’t exactly go as planned for either party, and this marks an inauspicious start to year two. The 2018 AL Cy Young winner put up a 4.20 ERA/3.82 FIP over 128 2/3 innings over 27 starts.

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