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NL Central Notes: Davis, Cards, Donaldson, Santana, Brewers, Bucs, Cole, Hamilton

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The Cardinals are one of the teams interested in free agent closer Wade Davis, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  With St. Louis focusing on bullpen additions this winter, it only makes sense that they would check in on top-of-the-market names like Davis who could immediately step into the vacant closer role.  In fact, Passan said the Cards are “prioritizing late-inning help” to go along with their other notable relief signing of Luke Gregerson.  The Cardinals have been heavy players in the offseason rumor mill, connected to several big names on both the free agent and trade fronts, and GM Michael Girsch is “optimistic” (per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch) that the team is close to swinging a deal after progress was reportedly made in trade talks.

More from the NL Central…

  • The Cardinals’ Winter Meetings activities have also included talks with the Blue Jays about a Josh Donaldson deal, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).  St. Louis has been rumored to be interested in Donaldson for some time, though there is still no indication that the Jays are considering moving the former AL MVP.
  • Domingo Santana’s name has been mentioned in trade talks, with Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reporting that the Brewers are actively shopping the outfielder rather than just listening to offers.  ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick hears from one executive that the Brewers are trying to “sell high” on Santana, and that the market for his services isn’t as active as the Crew had hoped.  Crasnick has heard “mixed reviews” on Santana’s potential, as while he enjoyed a good 2017 season, teams aren’t enamored with his strikeouts, defense, and his soon-to-be growing price tag in arbitration.  (Both links to Twitter)
  • Brewers GM David Stearns told reporters (including Haudricourt and MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy) that the team is waiting to hear on offers it has extended to multiple free agents.  Pitching is Milwaukee’s focus this winter, so Haudricourt assumes that the Brewers have made offers to at least a few arms.  Stearns also added that the Brew Crew are willing to explore both signings and trades, and talks continue on the latter front.
  • In two more tweets from Haudricourt, he mentions that the Brewers and Pirates were in talks today.  With Milwaukee looking for pitching and second base help, Haudricourt speculates that Gerrit Cole or Josh Harrison could have been topics of discussion between the two division rivals.
  • The Orioles are another team that has expressed in interest in Cole, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tweets.  It still isn’t clear whether the Pirates are actually seriously considering moving Cole, though ESPN’s Buster Olney hears from industry evaluators that the Bucs are prepared to move Cole for the right offer.  Teams like the Yankees, Rangers, and Twins have all checked in to gauge Pittsburgh’s intentions.  Cole would be a sorely-needed upgrade to Baltimore’s struggling rotation, though the O’s don’t have a particularly deep minor league system from which to deal.
  • The Giants made a “semi” strong trade offer to the Reds for Billy Hamilton, a source tells MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon, though it doesn’t look like anything is close to being completed.

Latest On Billy Hamilton

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There’s significant enough interest in Reds center fielder Billy Hamilton that it’s possible a deal could come together during the Winter Meetings, according to a report from Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer. In particular, the Giants are holding “serious discussions” with Cincinnati.

The Giants have long been connected to Hamilton, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweeting earlier today they are the strongest contender while noting the Reds are interested in clearing room for Jesse Winker in the outfield. But Buchanan stresses they are not the only team still involved in talks. Hamilton is said to be the Reds player generating the most trade interest, with numerous other teams — including the Rangers — also still showing real interest.

Hamilton, of course, is a burner on the bases and top-quality up-the-middle defender. He also has not yet established himself at the plate at the game’s highest level, though. MLBTR recently broke down Hamilton’s trade candidacy in full at this link.

NL Notes: Nationals, Hamilton, Stanton, Brewers

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The Nationals are checking over the market for starters, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). While the team’s potential targets aren’t yet clear, Rosenthal does list two interesting options, both of whom were among the names we floated as hypothetical candidates in our review of the Nats’ offseason outlook. Gerrit Cole of the Pirates could be a name to watch on the trade market, says Rosenthal. And the Nationals are “kicking around” a pursuit of free agent Jake Arrieta, per the report. Certainly, the club’s numerous dealings with Scott Boras make that possible match one to keep an eye on. It’s certainly still possible the Nationals will go in any number of different directions in filling out their rotation, though the report does suggest the team shouldn’t be ruled out for a significant addition.

Here’s more from the National League:

  • Billy Hamilton is generating the most interest of any potential Reds trade pieces, Rosenthal also reports. Hamilton, obviously, is a limited offensive player due to a lack of power and on-base skills, but his baserunning and defensive skills are among the game’s elite. If the Reds do ultimately find an offer to their liking for Hamilton — he’s arb-eligible for two more years and projected to earn $5MM next season by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz — Rosenthal writes that they’d likely sign a short-term stopgap in center field rather than play a corner option out of position.
  • Both the Giants and Cardinals are now out of the running to land Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins, but their pursuits still carry some information worthy of note. In the case of San Francisco, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports (Twitter links) that many of the players rumored to have been in the teams’ agreed-upon trade package were not, in fact, slated to be moved. None of Joe Panik, Tyler Beede, Chris Shaw, Heliot Ramos, and Christian Arroyo would have been dealt, per the report. Meanwhile, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that the Cards would have absorbed about $250MM of the $295MM still owed to Stanton.
  • Brewers GM David Stearns chatted with the team’s beat writers, including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, in advance of the Winter Meetings. Regarding the team’s rotation needs, Stearns says that the organization’s “market and history” under his stewardship are “a better indicator of the types of moves we’re seeking than some of the external speculation.” That seemingly hints that the organization won’t be chasing high-end free agents, though perhaps some of the top pitchers could still be considered in the right circumstances. He noted that lefty Josh Hader could yet end up “in a multi-inning relief role, similar to last year, or a more conventional starter role.” While the team wants to ensure Hader is able to “accumulate innings,” its winter moves could dictate his precise usage. Generally, Stearns said the club has many talks at various stages of development, though nothing that is nearing completion as of this particular moment.

Giants Interested In Billy Hamilton

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As the Giants canvas the market for center field upgrade options, the team has “shown interest” in Billy Hamilton of the Reds, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). The 27-year-old projects to earn an even $5MM in his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility.

It’s no secret that the Giants are looking to add a center fielder. And it’s clear that defensive capability is a significant consideration, given that Denard Span is being moved to the corner in large part due to his inability to cover sufficient swaths of the spacious grassland of AT&T Park.

Hamilton would no doubt help in that regard, as he’s one of the game’s premier defenders — and has been ever since becoming regular in 2014. The fleet-footed Hamilton is also one of the very most valuable players in baseball on the basepaths. Trouble is, he has a tough time getting there, with a .298 lifetime on-base percentage.

Unsurprisingly, Hamilton is likely just one of several possibilities at this stage. Morosi recently connected San Francisco to Jackie Bradley Jr. of the Red Sox, who’d be a more appealing all-around option if he’s made available.

No doubt the Giants are looking into others as well, with trade talks and the open market both offering possibilities. Lorenzo Cain is the top free agent available, though he’ll require a significant outlay to acquire. Other names on the open market that could conceivably factor into the Giants’ thinking (some of them as potential fourth-outfield options) include Jarrod Dyson, Carlos Gomez, Austin Jackson, Jon Jay, and Cameron Maybin.

Looking For A Match In A Billy Hamilton Trade

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After a second consecutive 68-94 season, the Cincinnati Reds’ rebuilding process still has no clear end in sight. Complicating things further for the organization are the facts that they already owe $68.7MM in guaranteed contracts to five players for the 2018 season, and $56.6MM to four players in 2019. Although the organization has shown a willingness to spend in the past, they aren’t exactly a large-market payroll juggernaut, so it stands to reason that the Cincinnati front office is unlikely to spend big across the next two seasons in order to compete for a pennant amidst a highly competitive NL Central division.

Enter Billy Hamilton. A free agent at the end of the 2019 season, the speed demon will probably reach the open market before October baseball returns to Cincinnati. It makes perfect sense, then, that the Reds might seek to explore the trade market for their fleet-footed center fielder.

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers

The 27-year old’s value is largely tied up in his legs. Statcast’s sprint speed leaderboard ranks Hamilton as the second-fastest sprinter in the game (behind Minnesota’s Byron Buxton), while Fangraphs rated his defense third-best among qualifying center fielders in 2017. He’s stolen at least 56 bases in each of his four full seasons at the major league level, and has routinely created runs by through aggressive base running.

The well-known achilles heel of Hamilton’s game has always been his terrible offensive output. Despite tremendous speed down the first base line, Hamilton owns a putrid career .248/.298/.338 batting line across 2,180 plate appearances at the major league level, good for a 71 wRC+ since his promotion in September of 2013.

So, when exploring potential suitors for Hamilton, it makes the most sense to start with teams that have a dire need for a defensive upgrade in center field. It’s also worth noting that Hamilton’s base running skills aren’t as useful to teams that rely heavily on the home run ball, such as the Rays, Athletics and Yankees.

With the above factors in mind, the Giants could be a particularly good match. AT&T Park’s outfield is particularly large, making it difficult for their hitters to put runs on the board via the long ball. Hamilton’s base running prowess would surely be a great asset to a team that finished dead last in baseball with 128 homers, but ranked 8th-best in contact rate. What’s more, San Francisco center fielders ranked as the third-worst defensive group in all of baseball via Fangraphs’ defensive metric. Hamilton would provide a considerable upgrade over that of the aging Denard Span.

Similarly, the Dodgers’ pitching staff could benefit from having Hamilton manning center field in the pitcher-friendly Dodgers Stadium, with Chris Taylor sliding to second base. The Royals could be on the lookout for a center field option if they don’t retain Lorenzo Cain. Hamilton could provide an overall upgrade for the Brewers over the strikeout-plagued Keon Broxton, though they’re more likely to see what they have in Lewis Brinson before looking to external options.

Though Hamilton’s lifetime fWAR of 10.6 pegs him as only a slightly above-average player for his major league career, his skill set is unique. He could fill a hole for many major league clubs, and there’s a good chance he could help fortify the Reds’ farm system while they continue to rebuild.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Billy Hamilton Diagnosed With Fractured Thumb

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The Reds announced that center fielder Billy Hamilton sustained a fractured left thumb in today’s game and is expected to be placed on the 10-day disabled list. That puts the remainder of the season in jeopardy for Hamilton, though manager Bryan Price told reporters that the injury does not necessarily end the fleet-footed Hamilton’s season (Twitter link via Adam Baum of the Cincinnati Enquirer).

Hamilton initially sustained the injury on a bunt attempt in the first inning. He exited the game and headed straight for an MRI, as MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon tweeted at the time.

[Related: Cincinnati Reds depth chart]

The 26-year-old Hamilton has seen his offensive production take a step backwards after hitting .293 with a .369 on-base percentage in the second half of the 2016 season. Thus far in 2017, he’s matched his career-high of 58 stolen bases but has done so with a sub-par .248/.299/.333 batting line through an even 600 plate appearances. That said, Hamilton’s baserunning continues to be regarded as the best in the Majors, per Fangraphs’ BsR metric, and his glovework in center field remains considerably above average as well.

With Hamilton on the shelf, the Reds can turn to Jose Peraza and Phillip Ervin in center field. Cincinnati has also played Scott Schebler in center field on occasion in 2017, so they could slide him over for a day or two as a means of getting prospect Jesse Winker some additional at-bats once Winker returns from the disabled list. Sheldon wrote earlier today that Winker was nearing a return from a strained hip flexor.

Looking ahead, Hamilton remains the odds-on favorite to hold down regular duties in center field next year yet again. Despite his lagging bat, his baserunning and glovework make him a useful player. Plus, the lack of power has held down his arbitration earnings. Hamilton took down just $2.625MM this year and can be controlled for two more seasons to come. That said, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Cincinnati began considering alternatives as soon as this winter.

Make Or Break Year: Billy Hamilton

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MLBTR is rebooting its “make or break year” series, in which we analyze players who enter the season with up-and-down track records but also an opportunity to stake a claim to significant future earnings. 

Reds center fielder Billy Hamilton remains one of the game’s most fascinating players, due in large part to his eye-popping ability to create runs through his unmatched daring on the bases. Hamilton’s top-of-the-charts speed — which he ably deploys to circle the bags and track down fly balls with the best of them — gives him a sturdy floor and makes him an easy bet to contribute in the big leagues for a full career.

Feb 18, 2017; Goodyear, AZ, USA; Cincinnati Reds center fielder Billy Hamilton (6) poses for a photo during Spring Training Media Day at the Cincinnati Reds Player Development Complex. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The question remains, though, whether Hamilton ought to be trotted out on an everyday basis given his weaknesses with the bat in hand. There’s an argument to be made that he’s good enough on the bases and in the field that he really doesn’t need to hit much at all to warrant a steady job. Over the past three seasons, Hamilton has paced baseball by a laughable margin in total baserunning value and ranks third in the game in UZR-based defensive contributions. And this isn’t just some sabermetric argument; teams have long valued outstanding up-the-middle defenders who couldn’t hit a lick. (To take but one largely random example, Phil Rizzuto came in second in the AL MVP voting in 1949 despite a .275/.352/.358 batting line … nearly a perfect match for the .273/.351/.355 slash he carried during a Hall-of-Fame career.)

Still, there’s a point at which it’s hard to stomach the lack of production at the dish. Remarkably, Hamilton managed 2.0 fWAR and 1.0 rWAR in 2015 even while hitting an anemic .226/.274/.289. But that level of offense makes him more of a fourth outfielder than a regular worthy of a major commitment from an organization, so the Reds will no doubt demand more before committing to Hamilton for the long run. Obviously he’s shown more in other seasons, but how much bat is enough? And can Hamilton boost his production to the point where that’s a moot question, perhaps earning an extension in the process? Much of the information needed to answer those questions will be provided by Hamilton’s 2017 season.

Is it too early to label this a “make or break year” for Hamilton? Perhaps, to some extent. After all, he’s only 26 and just reached arbitration eligibility for the first time. (He’ll earn a palatable, but still reasonably significant, $2.625MM salary.) But that leaves only two further years of control, at increasing rates of pay, and the Reds are hoping to push toward contention sooner than later. If there’s uncertainty regarding Hamilton’s future — and the organization’s interest in retaining him beyond his arb years — then surely Cincinnati will look to explore alternatives, while perhaps dangling the unique burner in trade talks. (If late-inning relievers are uniquely appealing at the trade deadline, then how about a baserunning specialist who’d become a rare weapon down the stretch and in the postseason?)

Let’s take a closer look at Hamilton’s hitting profile. Surrounding his putrid 2015 campaign, the switch-hitter compiled two seasons in which his overall output was similar but the way he got there was different. In 2014, his rookie campaign, Hamilton slashed .250/.292/.355; last year, he ran out a .260/.321/.343 batting line. With context factored in, both represented productivity that falls about 20% below league average. But for several reasons, the more recent season was arguably more promising.

First and foremost, Hamilton boosted his walk rate in 2016 to a career-best 7.8%. Relatedly, while his overall contact numbers have held steady, Hamilton continued a trend of laying off of more pitches out of the zone. He also put the ball on the ground quite a bit more than ever before (47.7%), helping him to generate a career-best .329 BABIP even as he recorded a typical (for him) 12.5% infield-hit rate and continued to produce very little had contact.

Those background improvements are reason for some optimism, but it’s Hamilton’s late-season charge that has created the most excitement. As C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently examined, Hamilton produced a .369 on-base percentage over his final 45 games, allowing him to steal a remarkable 36 bases in that span. With some professional maturation and improvements to his approach supporting that improvement, perhaps there’s cause to believe that could carry over.

If Hamilton can reach base even at an approximately average clip, he looks like a solid 2.5 to 3.0 WAR player. If he can get on board at a greater rate, perhaps he’ll be a star. But his career OBP of .297 has left his legs in the dugout too frequently. There’s still some time for Hamilton to chart his true course, but the Reds may base their own plans based largely upon his 2017 campaign. The Cincinnati organization has opened up the pocketbook to extend control rights over core players rather frequently, and the Marlins’ extension of Dee Gordon shows the upside for a player of Hamilton’s ilk, but he’ll need to convince the club that he’s capable of sustained productivity to get there.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL Notes: Hamilton, Aguilar, Lugo, Marrero, Guerrero

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Reds center fielder Billy Hamilton has gained perspective heading into his fourth full season in the majors, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes. Learning to manage the tension of the game, and picking up some of Joey Votto’s preparation routines, have Hamilton sporting a newfound confidence that comes from being “relaxed going to the plate.” Rather than overthinking things when he goes to bat, Hamilton says, “I know what I want to do before I go in the box.” That approach helped the 26-year-old put up a strong .369 OBP and swipe 36 bags over the final 45 games of the 2016 season; combined with an outstanding glove, that made him quite a productive player. Heading into his first season of arbitration eligibility, with two more to go, Hamilton could establish himself as a strong everyday center fielder (and, perhaps, an extension candidate) if he can continue that performance.

Here’s more from the National League:

  • The Brewers are set to give Jesus Aguilar a shot at winning a bench job with the club, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports on Twitter. Claimed off waivers earlier in the winter from the Indians, the 26-year-old Aguilar is out of options. While he hasn’t seen much MLB action, Aguilar does own a productive .271/.346/.472 batting line at the Triple-A level and could share time at first with new Milwaukee signee Eric Thames if he impresses this spring.
  • Likewise, the Mets seem to be giving righty Seth Lugo a shot at showing he deserves the team’s fifth rotation slot after a surprising showing in 2016. As Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports, Lugo will do battle with fellow righty Robert Gsellman in camp, with the former receiving the starting nod on Friday. New York plans to keep one on the staff, with the other working from the Triple-A rotation rather than the pen, while Zack Wheeler catches up and hopefully reclaims his spot on the MLB roster.
  • Chris Marrero represents something of a dark horse in the Giants’ active battle for bench spots — which we covered earlier tonight — as Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News writes. San Francisco placed a call to his representatives right at the start of free agency, and the 28-year-old jumped at the opportunity. “If this team wants you, it’s a good thing,” he says. Once a highly regarded prospect with the Nationals, Marrero has scant MLB time, but did slash a productive .284/.344/.494 and hit a career-best 23 home runs in 544 Triple-A plate appearances last year with the Red Sox organization.
  • Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald tells the interesting tale of an unlikely Marlins pitcher, righty Tayron Guerrero. A towering, hard-throwing reliever, Guerrero hails from a tiny island in Colombia; learning to play ball there required a two-hour walk through the jungle and a boat ride to the mainland. Guerrero cracked the majors briefly with the Padres before being shipped to Miami as part of last summer’s Andrew Cashner trade. If he can refine his control — he averaged a career-low 4.0 BB/9 in the upper minors in 2016 — Guerrero could turn into a factor in the Marlins’ pen.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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Quite frankly, there were too many arbitration agreements today to reasonably stuff into one post. So here’s a rundown of the National League players that have avoided arbitration on smaller deals (American League deals here). You can see all of the arbitration “action” thus far in a sortable, filterable format by checking out MLBTR’s 2017 Arbitration Tracker. All projections referenced in this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • Wily Peralta and Carlos Torres have agreed to one-year deals, according to the team’s Twitter account. Peralta will earn $4.275MM (compared to $4.4MM projection), per Heyman. Torres was projected to make $2MM, but will get slightly more at $2.175MM, per Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (via Twitter).
  • Reliever George Kontos gets $1.75MM from the Giants, Heyman tweets. He had projected at $1.7MM.
  • The Diamondbacks also reached agreement with lefty Patrick Corbin, righty Randall Delgado, and catcher Chris Herrmann, per Jack Magruder of Fan Rag (links to Twitter). Delgado gets $1.775MM and Herrmann receives $937,500. As for Corbin, he’ll take home $3.95MM, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (via Twitter), which falls a bit shy of his $4.2MM projection.
  • Infielder Eduardo Nunez will receive $4.2MM from the Giants, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). San Francisco has also reached agreement with lefty Will Smith, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). He’ll receive $2.5MM, just over his $2.3MM projection, Heyman tweets.
  • The Phillies settled at $4.2MM with righty Jeanmar Gomez, per Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter). He falls just a big shy of his $4.6MM projection.
  • The Cardinals have announced arb deals with Trevor Rosenthal and Kevin Siegrist. Rosenthal receives $6.4MM, per Heyman (via Twitter), which is just $100K over his projection. Siegrist projected at $1.9MM, but his salary has yet to be reported.
  • Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom have each avoided arbitration with the Mets. Harvey gets $5.125MM in his second arb year, per James Wagner of the New York Times (via Twitter). Meanwhile, deGrom will receive $4.05MM in his first trip through the arb process, per ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin (via Twitter). New York has also agreed with lefty Josh Edgin, Rubin tweets, though terms remain unreported.

Earlier Updates

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Mets Notes: Robertson, Conforto, Bruce, Hamilton

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The latest out of Citi Field…

  • The Mets “haven’t made a serious inquiry” about a trade for White Sox closer David Robertson this winter or at the last trade deadline, though New York hasn’t ruled out the possibility, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports.  Chicago would ask for Michael Conforto in any Robertson deal, however, so it could be hard for the two sides to settle on a deal.  The White Sox weren’t looking for a big prospect return when they explored moving Robertson at the deadline, Ackert writes, though their current ask of Conforto reflects this offseason’s huge market for relief pitching.
  • Also in regards to a possible Robertson trade, since the Mets are unlikely to deal Conforto or another young talent for the closer, Metsblog.com’s Matthew Cerrone proposes that the White Sox should swap Robertson for Jay Bruce if they’re unable to find a team willing to surrender a good prospect for Robertson’s services.  The Sox would, if nothing else, save some money in the deal, as Bruce is owed $13MM in 2017 while Robertson is owed $25MM through 2018.  Bruce could also become a good trade chip at the deadline, which would allow the White Sox to eventually get the prospect they want.  The Mets would be taking on extra salary in this proposed deal, though allocating that money towards a strong relief arm is a better fit for the club than paying for a superfluous corner outfielder.
  • In another item from Cerrone, he reports that the Mets “had zero interest” in Reds center fielder Billy Hamilton last summer.  While Hamilton is an elite baserunner and defender, those skills were thought to be “unsustainable,” while the Mets also had issues with Hamilton’s strikeouts, low OBP and the fact that he’ll become more expensive over the next three years as he enters his arbitration years.  Hamilton has been speculatively linked to the Mets as a possible solution to their outfield conundrum, though if the Mets still have those concerns, there seems to be little chance they would meet Cincinnati’s reportedly high price tag for the center fielder.
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