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NL West Notes: Rodriguez, Thomas, Musgrove, Montgomery

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The Diamondbacks sent both left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez and outfielder Alek Thomas for MRI exams last week, and Torey Lovullo told reporters (per MLB.com’s Injury Tracker) that the results of Rodriguez’s MRI were “very positive,” but that there was no update on Thomas’s status as the club plans to seek second and third opinions on the youngster’s results.

It’s excellent news for the Diamondbacks that Rodriguez is making his way toward a return, with Lovullo indicating that he’s set to begin a throwing program. Rodriguez will be sidelined through at least May 24 due to his placement on the 60-day injured list but it’s at least feasible he could return to game action not long after that if he manages to avoid further setbacks. Rodriguez’s lat injury woes have prevented him from making his Dbacks debut to this point in the 2024 campaign, but he’s coming off an excellent season with the Tigers last year that saw him post a 3.30 ERA and 3.66 FIP in 152 2/3 innings of work and should provide a major boost to an Arizona rotation that’s currently relying on Ryne Nelson and Slade Cecconi in the absence of Rodriguez and veteran righty Merrill Kelly.

As for Thomas, the lack of update from the Diamondbacks is a somewhat ominous sign regarding his hamstring. The 24-year-old was initially scheduled to be activated from the IL last week but ended up exiting a rehab outing with Triple-A due to an issue with his injured hamstring on May 5 that ultimately did not improve after a day off, prompting Arizona to delay his return and send him for testing. Once a consensus top-30 prospect in the sport, Thomas has struggled at the big league level with a .230/.273/.362 slash line in 242 career games but nonetheless figured to be the club’s starting center fielder this season. Corbin Carroll has handled center field in Thomas’s absence with Jake McCarthy stepping from the bench into Thomas’s spot in the lineup while manning right field.

More from the NL West…

  • Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove is making good progress in his return from right elbow inflammation, according to manager Mike Shildt (per MLB.com’s Injury Tracker). The 31-year-old’s initial worrisome diagnosis was described as “precautionary” when he was initially placed on the shelf last week, and it appears that description was an apt one as Musgrove has reportedly already begun light baseball activities, including playing catch. MLB.com writes that the right-hander is optimistic that he’ll be able to return “shortly after” the minimum 15-day stint on the IL, which would likely result in him returning to action sometime next week. San Diego is surely hoping that Musgrove will look more like the ace hurler who posted a 3.05 ERA in 459 2/3 innings in a Padres uniform entering the 2024 campaign than he has to this point in the season, as he struggled badly with a 6.37 ERA and 5.96 FIP in eight starts prior to his placement on the shelf.
  • The Rockies may have lost outfield prospect Benny Montgomery for the season on Friday, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding relays that the 21-year-old underwent shoulder surgery that Rockies director of player development Chris Forbes said will keep him out until at least “toward the end of the year” if he’s able to return this season at all. The club’s first-round pick in the 2021 draft, Montgomery turned heads during the Arizona Fall League last year with a .333/.436/.500 slash line in 19 games and was hitting a solid .283/.313/.500 in his first taste of Double-A action before being sidelined by the shoulder injury.

Big Hype Prospects: Eder, Herz, Rincones, Montgomery, Schwartz

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After another week of action, a spate of strikeouts has cost Jakob Marsee his spot atop the hitter leaderboards. James Triantos has slipped in above him. Top pitcher status is harder to judge. Braden Nett, Davis Daniel, Ricky Tiedemann, and Jackson Jobe all have a case.
Let’s see who else merits a look.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jake Eder, 25, SP, CWS
(A/AA) 56.2 IP, 11.1 K/9, 5.7 BB/9, 6.99 ERA

A southpaw pitching prospect who was once as blue chip as they come, Eder hasn’t recovered well from Tommy John surgery. While his elbow is healthy, he’s lost velocity, movement, and command since his prospect peak. The White Sox dealt Jake Burger for Eder at the trade deadline and likely wish they could ctrl-z that decision. Following the swap, Eder coughed up an 11.42 ERA in five starts for the Sox Double-A affiliate.

On a positive note, Eder has a 3.24 ERA in 8.1 AFL innings – good for ninth-best in the league. He’s coughed up a pair of home runs to go with eight walks and 10 strikeouts. The book isn’t closed on Eder, but he needs to take an active role in writing the next chapter. The current chapter is titled TINSTAAPP.

DJ Herz, 22, SP/RP, WSH
(AA) 94.1 IP, 12.7 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 4.01 ERA

Another southpaw traded at the deadline, Herz is widely seen as a future reliever due to a below-average fastball and breaking ball. His command is also poor. Where he stands out is his changeup. It’s a carrying pitch that should yield a Major League future. Herz continues to work as a starter in the AFL where he’s posted 18 strikeouts in 11 innings. Alas, his command woes (six walks) continue to limit his ability to pitch deep into outings. We await to see if his stuff plays up out of the bullpen.

Gabriel Rincones Jr., 22, OF, PHI
(A/A+) 533 PA, 15 HR, 32 SB, .248/.351/.427

A third-rounder in the 2022 draft, Rincones Jr. is best known for high-caliber exit velocities. He’s expected to wind up at first base due to suspect corner outfield defense and poor speed. Despite a lack of wheels, Rincones has shown aptitude on the bases – a trait that can sometimes portend a gamer’s mentality. His bat should carry him to the Majors without any major adjustments. At the very highest levels, he might prove too susceptible to breaking stuff. With players of this profile, breaking ball recognition is usually the difference between a big leaguer and a Quad-A guy. Rincones is among the top 10 AFL hitters with a .327/.462/.577 triple-slash.

Benny Montgomery, 21, OF, COL
(A+) 497 PA, 10 HR, 18 SB, .251/.336/.370

A former eighth-overall pick, Montgomery has seen his prospect status rapidly erode since draft day. Speed remains his best trait, though he also demonstrates above-average power. His contact is held back by funky mechanics. Most organizations – the Rockies among them – aren’t adept at developing players with a non-standard approach. They’re often left to sink or swim on their own. Encouragingly, Montgomery has cut down on his swinging strike rate at every level. He needs to continue that growth while doing something about the extreme 62.6 percent ground ball rate he posted this season. He also needs to improve his outfield defense where his double-plus speed helps him to recover from poor jumps and routes. He’s slashing .373/.468/.510 in the AFL, albeit with 17 strikeouts in 60 plate appearances.

JT Schwartz, 23, 1B, NYM
(AA) 277 PA, 4 HR, 4 SB, .302/.383/.437

Schwartz doesn’t have much of a shot with the Mets. He’s likely in the AFL to showcase him in front of other teams. He has the look of a future big leaguer – the sort who helps rebuilding teams trudge through another season. While Schwartz has the physical size to hit for power, his current approach is built around batting average and OBP. He’d draw more attention in the pre-Moneyball era. In 45 plate appearances, he has six doubles and two home runs along with a 1.011 OPS.

Three More

Liam Hicks, TEX (24): Hicks has low-key paced the league on the hitting side including a six-hit day. Despite the heady results, he’s not particularly impactful with the bat. His catching is of the third-string variety – he’s struggled to control the running game throughout his entire career. Other aspects of his defense draw critiques. Without an obvious position, Hicks looks like a ‘tweener whose plus discipline and contact rate could hide his shortcomings.

Kyle Manzardo, CLE (23): Manzardo, who we’ve already discussed ad nauseam in past episodes, leads the league with five home runs and 11 extra base hits. The power adjustment he showed upon joining the Guardians remains in evidence.

Oliver Dunn, PHI (26): A Rule 5-eligible second baseman, Dunn is making a case for consideration. He popped 21 home runs with 16 steals this summer while showing plus plate discipline. He’s strikeout-prone, but the power breakout renders that more forgivable. In 46 AFL plate appearances, he’s swiped nine bases to go with a 1.076 OPS, three doubles, three triples, and a dinger.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Rockies Agree To Terms With First Round Pick Benny Montgomery

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The Rockies have agreed to a $5MM signing bonus with first round draft pick Benny Montgomery, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s a touch below the $5.1769MM slot value that accompanies the #8 overall pick.

An outfielder from a Pennsylvania high school, Montgomery had been committed to the University of Virginia. Instead, he’ll join the Colorado organization and add a high-upside talent to the farm system.

Montgomery was a bit of a divisive prospect among public evaluators, ranking between 10th and 28th on pre-draft rankings from Baseball America, Keith Law of the Athletic, and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. There’s little question about Montgomery’s physical gifts; he had among the best combinations of raw power and speed in the class. All three publications raise a bit of concern about Mongtomery’s atypical hitting mechanics — which McDaniel compares to those of Hunter Pence — but the Rockies were apparently comfortable he’ll make enough contact to be an impactful player.

2021 MLB Draft, Day One Results

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The 2021 MLB Draft is underway, and we’ll be keeping track of tonight’s picks as they’re announced.  The draft will get underway this evening with the first 36 picks — the first round proper, the compensatory round (which consists of just one pick, the Reds’ extra selection granted when Trevor Bauer rejected their qualifying offer last winter and signed with the Dodgers for more than $50MM), and then Competitive Balance Round A.

Rounds 2-10 (plus the included compensation picks and Competitive Balance Round B) will take place on Monday afternoon, and then rounds 11-20 will take place Tuesday afternoon.  This year’s draft is to 20 rounds from five rounds in 2020, and the current expectation is that the 2022 draft will return to its old 40-round format, though the draft structure will be one of many topics under discussion when the league and the players’ union negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement this winter.

For more on these stars of the future, check out the prospect rankings and scouting reports compiled by Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.  As well, here is MLB Pipeline’s breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

The selections…

  1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, University Of Louisville
  2. Texas Rangers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt University
  3. Detroit Tigers: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall High School (OK)
  4. Boston Red Sox: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake High School (CA)
  5. Baltimore Orioles: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State University
  6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas, TX)
  7. Kansas City Royals: Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic High School (CT)
  8. Colorado Rockies: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land High School (PA)
  9. Los Angeles Angels: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami University (Ohio)
  10. New York Mets: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt University
  11. Washington Nationals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow High School (GA)
  12. Seattle Mariners: Harry Ford, C/OF, North Cobb High School (GA)
  13. Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian Academy (FLA)
  14. San Francisco Giants: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State University
  15. Milwaukee Brewers: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
  16. Miami Marlins: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest High School (NC)
  17. Cincinnati Reds: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
  18. St. Louis Cardinals: Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
  19. Toronto Blue Jays: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, University Of Mississippi
  20. New York Yankees: Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois University
  21. Chicago Cubs: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State University
  22. Chicago White Sox: Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge High School (IN)
  23. Cleveland Indians: Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina University
  24. Atlanta Braves: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest University
  25. Oakland Athletics: Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks High School (CA)
  26. Minnesota Twins: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional High School (NJ)
  27. San Diego Padres: Jackson Merrill, SS, Severna Park High School (MD)
  28. Tampa Bay Rays: Carson Williams, SS/RHP, Torrey Pines High School (CA)
  29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Maddux Bruns, LHP, UMS-Wright Prep (AL)
  30. Cincinnati Reds (compensatory pick): Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic High School (FL)
  31. Miami Marlins (Competitive Balance Round A): Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East High School (NY)
  32. Detroit Tigers (CBR-A): Ty Madden, RHP, University of Texas
  33. Milwaukee Brewers (CBR-A): Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State University
  34. Tampa Bay Rays (CBR-A): Cooper Kinney, 2B, Baylor High School (TN)
  35. Cincinnati Reds (CBR-A): Matheu Nelson, C, Florida State University
  36. Minnesota Twins (CBR-A): Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee High School (WI)
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