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Avisail Garcia

AL Injury Notes: A. Garcia, K. Davis, Bird, Astros

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White Sox right fielder Avisail Garcia likely won’t return to game action until the end of June, the team announced. Garcia, who has been out since April 24 with a strained right hamstring, underwent an MRI “that revealed improvement but the continued presence of a grade 2 strain,” per the club. On the heels of a terrific 2017, Garcia looked like a potential trade chip entering this season. However, between Garcia’s lengthy absence and the fact that he opened 2018 with a .233/.250/.315 line and no walks in 76 pre-injury plate appearances, his trade value has likely taken a sizable hit this year.

  • Athletics slugger Khris Davis left their game Sunday with a right groin strain, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. The severity isn’t known, though Slusser points out that groin strains tend to take anywhere from two to six weeks to heal. A stint on the disabled list seems like a strong possibility, then, and that would be a tough development for the surging A’s. The club’s on its way to a 25-22 start, and Davis has certainly had a role in that with a .235/.307/.497 line and a team-high 13 homers in 205 PAs.
  • Yankees first baseman Greg Bird could make his season debut during the upcoming week, manager Aaron Boone told Mike Mazzeo of the New York Daily News and other reporters Sunday. Bird hasn’t played this year on account of the right ankle surgery he underwent in late March, after missing most of last season with foot problems and all of 2016 with a torn labrum. Owners of the majors’ best record (29-13), the Yankees have gotten off to a great start without the talented Bird, thanks in part to first base fill-in Tyler Austin’s production. The 26-year-old rookie has smacked two HRs on Sunday to give him eight on the season and raise his OPS to .930 through 100 PAs.
  • The Astros have placed outfielder Derek Fisher on the DL (retroactive to Saturday) and recalled corner infielder/outfielder J.D. Davis from Triple-A, per reports from Mark Berman of FOX 26 and Jake Kaplan of The Athletic. Fisher, who has hit just .176/.222/.419 in 81 PAs, is dealing with gastrointestinal discomfort. Like Fisher, Davis hasn’t been great at the big league level this year (250/.357/.250 in 28 PAs). However, the 25-year-old laid waste to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League prior to Sunday’s call-up, slashing .415/.473/.654 in 146 tries.

White Sox Place Avisail Garcia On 10-Day DL, Promote Daniel Palka

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9:36pm: White Sox GM Rick Hahn classified the strain as “mild to moderate,” tweets Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago. While it seems that Garcia has at least avoided a significant injury, Hahn added that he’s not sure how much time Garcia can be expected to miss at present.

11:21am: The White Sox have placed outfielder Avisail Garcia on the 10-day DL with a strained right hamstring, per a club announcement. He’ll be replaced by Daniel Palka, who gets his first call to the majors.

Garcia, 26, left last night’s contest in visible pain, so it’s no surprise to see this placement. The severity of the strain is not yet known; his anticipated timeline could vary quite a lot depending upon the particulars.

The time on the shelf will come after a brutal start to the season for Garcia, who is hitting just .233/.250/.315 and has yet to draw a walk in 76 plate appearances. That’s particularly disappointing after a 2017 season in which he had finally broken through with a .330/.380/.506 slash and 18 home runs after years of showing hints but never fully coming around.

Last year’s output came with a caveat, to some extent, as Garcia rode a .392 batting average on balls in play. Though he has long fared well in that department, it was obviously an unsustainable level.

That said, whatever good fortune he benefited from in 2017 has thus far been repayed with bad luck. Sustaining top-end production without drawing many walks will always be a challenge, but there ought to be some positive regression to come. Garcia has struck the ball well in 2018 despite the poor outcomes, with a .345 xwOBA that lags his actual .244 wOBA by a yawning margin.

While the White Sox await Garcia’s return — hopefully, in time to present as a potential trade candidate this summer — they’ll take a look at Palka, who was claimed off waivers from the division-rival Twins last fall. He’s off to a good start at Triple-A, where he’s slashing .286/.384/.476 with three home runs over 73 trips to the plate.

Avisail Garcia Wins Arbitration Against White Sox

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White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia has emerged victorious from his arbitration hearing with the team, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). The Mato Sports Management client will earn $6.7MM in the 2018 season.

That salary represents an exact match for the arbitration projection of MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz. As MLBTR’s 2018 MLB Arbitration Tracker shows, the Chicago organization had argued for a $5.85MM salary.

Garcia, 26, earned a nice raise from his 2017 salary of $3MM by turning in a breakout effort. Over 561 plate appearances, he slashed a healthy .330/.380/.506 with 18 home runs. He’ll be eligible for arbitration one final time after the current season.

This represents the eighth player victory out of fourteen arbitration cases that have gone to a hearing to this point. In terms of the total dollars at stake, this is the second-largest case to have been decided. (Mookie Betts previously defeated the Red Sox in a case with a hefty $3MM spread.) There are eight arb cases that have yet to be resolved.

Latest On Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia

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While things can always change with one phone call or text, White Sox GM Rick Hahn suggested at SoxFest over the weekend that he expects both Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia to open the year with the ChiSox (link via MLB.com’s Scott Merkin).

“…[W]e are now basically done with an offseason during which we were able to understand what their value is out in the market,” said Hahn. “We made the assessment we were much better served as an organization to have both with us to start the 2018 season.”

Entering the offseason, both Abreu and Garcia stood out as plausible trade candidates, as each was coming off a terrific season with just two years of club control remaining. The Sox haven’t deviated much from their rebuilding direction, though the addition of Welington Castillo on a two-year, $15MM deal was more focused on near-term improvement than any of the moves the Sox made last offseason (or than any that they’ve made since).

Both Garcia and Abreu had their names bounced about the rumor circuit a bit earlier this winter, with Garcia being prominently connected to the Athletics and also speculatively linked to the Cardinals, among others. Abreu had his name connected to the Red Sox, Rockies and Cardinals himself, though it never seemed that talks between the White Sox and any interested party advanced especially far down the road to a deal.

Hahn, unsurprisingly, was mostly vague when speaking about the possibility of either player remaining with the team beyond the remaining two years of arbitration each has prior to free agency. The GM cited Miguel Gonzalez, whom the Sox recently re-signed, as evidence that players can return to an organization even after testing the free-agent waters and also indicated that it’s possible the Sox “figure it out sooner,” in reference to a potential long-term deal for Abreu and/or Garcia.

Abreu and the Sox have already avoided arbitration for the coming season by agreeing to a one-year, $13MM contract. Garcia figures to agree to a one-year deal at some point, though it may require a hearing; he filed for a $6.7MM salary against Chicago’s $5.85MM (as can be seen in MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker), and the two sides have yet to reach an agreement. While those hearings can be a contentious process at times, Garcia didn’t sound especially concerned about the matter (link via CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine).

“Yes for sure,” Garcia said when asked if he wants to remain with the Sox. “I want to play baseball here in Chicago. As a player, you never know what is going to happen. My job is to continue to work hard and get better.” Garcia voiced praise for manager Rick Renteria as well, Levine notes, though he also indicated that he doesn’t believe there’s been any talk of an extension between his agents and the White Sox’ front office. Such matters are often handled in Spring Training, though, and now that the Sox are more in tune with the market value of both Garcia and Abreu in trade talks, it stands to reason that they’ll also touch base with their camps to gauge the value of brokering a longer-term pact beyond the 2020 season.

Unresolved 2018 Arbitration Cases

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We’ve covered a whole lot of arbitration deals today, many of them reached before today’s deadline to exchange filing figures. Some other agreements have come together after team and player submitted their numbers. It’s still possible, of course, that these situations will be resolved before an arbitration hearing becomes necessary. (At this point, we seem to lack full clarity on teams’ approaches to negotiations after the filing deadline. And most organizations make exceptions for multi-year deals even if they have a file-and-trial stance.)

Some situations could even be dealt with in short order. As things stand, though, these unresolved arbitration cases could turn into significant hearings. (As always, MLBTR’s 2018 arbitration projections can be found here; you will also want to reference MLBTR’s 2018 arbitration tracker.)

Poll: Which Of These Players Is Most Likely To Be Traded?

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We’ve reached January, and the free agent market is still lagging in a big way. The top free agents available seemingly haven’t showed a willingness to lower their asking prices, and with spring training less than two months out, teams may feel a need to complete their offseason shopping lists sooner than later. In some cases, this may cause teams to make stronger pushes for some candidates on the trade market.

There have certainly been some large scale trades so far this offseason. High-end players such as Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Evan Longoria, Ian Kinsler and Stephen Piscotty have changed hands already, and there are still plenty of practical matches left between MLB teams. We’ve detailed many of these in the 2017-2018 installment of our “Looking For A Match” series; the players featured in those articles are listed below, with our noted potential fits listed in parentheses.

  • Billy Hamilton, Reds CF (Giants, Dodgers, Royals): Hamilton’s talents as a burner on the basepaths and an elite defender in center field are well-known throughout MLB circles, but in truth, that’s about where his usefulness ends. His .299 OBP was the 11th-lowest among qualified hitters in 2017; that number is about consistent with his career mark. The Giants seem to have shown a strong interest in Hamilton, but Reds owner Bob Castellini’s recently-reported hesitancy to part with the speedster could gum up trade negotiations. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Billy Hamilton Trade]
  • Brad Hand, Padres LHRP (Astros, Dodgers, Cardinals, Twins, Braves): Though our evaluation of Hand’s trade market also included the Rays and Rockies, those teams seem like less likely suitors at this point in the offseason; the former decreased their likelihood of contention by shipping Longoria to San Francisco, while the latter has signed three expensive relief pitchers to pad their bullpen. Hand is one of the elite relief pitchers in all of baseball, and he’s certainly one of the best (if not the undisputed best) bullpen options on the trade market. Of course, the caveat is that it would also require a significant prospect haul to convince San Diego to move him. The lefty has two years of team control remaining, and MLBTR projects him to cost just $3.8MM in 2018. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Brad Hand Trade]
  • Jose Abreu, White Sox 1B (Astros, Indians, Rangers, Red Sox, Rockies): Though the Cuba native has been a mainstay in the White Sox’ lineup since his MLB debut in 2014, his club is unlikely to contend for a pennant before he reaches free agency after the 2019 season. MLBTR’s arbitration projections have him pegged for a $17.9MM salary in 2018, but his expected offensive output makes him well worth that price tag. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Jose Abreu Trade]
  • Avisail Garcia, White Sox OF (Blue Jays, Indians, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Giants, Rangers): Like Abreu, Garcia is a South Sider with two years of team control remaining. However, he comes with a lot more risk; Garcia had played below replacement level over the course of his career prior to a breakout this past season. Still, there are many teams who would benefit from adding a lefty-masher to their outfield corps, and his projected 2018 salary is a reasonable $6.7MM. [LINK: Looking For A Match In An Avisail Garcia Trade]
  • Raisel Iglesias, Reds RHRP (Nationals, Dodgers, Cardinals, Brewers, Twins, Astros): With three full seasons of team control remaining, Iglesias could prove a valuable long-term asset to either a rebuilding club or a current contender. He’s managed to strike out 10.43 batters per nine innings over the course of his career as a reliever while posting a sterling 2.29 ERA. The Twins have reportedly shown interest in Iglesias this winter, though that was nearly two months ago; there haven’t been any new developments in that story since then. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A Raisel Iglesias Trade]
  • J.T. Realmuto, Marlins C (Nationals, Rockies, Diamondbacks): Unlike the other players on this list, Realmuto has gone so far as to request a trade from his current team. While that alone certainly isn’t enough to facilitate a trade, some have taken the stance that Miami ought to trade their catcher (along with fellow Marlin Christian Yelich) at his peak value. Realmuto has accrued more than 7 WAR over the past two seasons alone, but the Marlins don’t feel compelled to trade him unless they’re overwhelmed by an offer. [LINK: Looking For A Match In A J.T. Realmuto Trade]
  • Manny Machado, Orioles 3B (Cardinals, Yankees, Angels, Rockies, Nationals): Rumors surrounding Baltimore’s prized infielder have cooled off a bit recently, but the Orioles could still be prompted to move him for the right offer. They’re reportedly seeking two talented starting pitchers who are controllable for the long term, however, which seems like a sky-high asking price for a player with just one year of team control remaining. Of course, the O’s probably wouldn’t restrict a return to just rotation options. Machado is projected to earn a $17.3MM salary in his final season before hitting the free agent market. [LINK: Trading Manny Machado]

We’ll open this subject up to reader opinions at this point. Which of the trade candidates we’ve profiled do you think is most likely to be traded before the 2018 season begins? (Link for app users)

Taking Inventory: Chicago White Sox

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The White Sox haven’t been shy about blowing up their major league team lately. Within the past 13 months, GM Rick Hahn has shipped out nearly half the players who were on the club’s 25-man roster at the end of the 2016 season. Most notably, Chicaco was able to land killer hauls for Chris Sale, Adam Eaton and Jose Quintana.

The teardown has resulted in a tidal wave of incredible young talent. Yoan Moncada, Carson Fulmer, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez are already playing at the MLB level, and the club has three top 25 overall prospects still waiting in the wings. However, as one might imagine, the club is still not ready to contend. Player development isn’t always linear, and it will take at least a couple of years for the newfound cavalry to arrive from the farm system, let alone find success in the majors. As such, the White Sox are likely to continue trading away major league pieces with limited team control in order to add talent they can count on during their next window of contention.

Here’s a list of remaining assets that the South Siders might consider moving in the coming months…

Two Years of Control

Jose Abreu, 1B ($17.9MM projected arb salary): Since coming to Chicago from Cuba, Abreu has been an offensive force for the White Sox, evidenced by his .301/.359/.524 batting line and 139 wRC+ with the organization. He’s averaged 31 homers and 665 plate appearances across his four major league seasons, making him one of the most reliable offensive players in the game. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently profiled his trade market, listing the Red Sox, Rangers and Rockies among his potential suitors. Abreu’s expensive salary (which will likely get another hefty boost in 2019) limits his trade value, but there’s still a clear surplus here. A crowded first base market complicates things a bit, but he could still draw plenty of interest from other clubs.

Avisail Garcia, OF ($6.7MM projected arb salary): Garcia enjoyed the best season of his career in 2017 after shedding some weight during the 2016-2017 offseason. The right-handed-hitting outfielder was in contention for the AL batting title for most of the year (thanks in part to a .392 BABIP), and was worth 4.2 fWAR overall. A while back, I broke down his hypothetical trade market, listing the Indians, Rockies and Diamondbacks as potential landing spots.

Sep 10, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox designated hitter Avisail Garcia (26) hits a single during the fourth inning against the Kansas City Royals at U.S. Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

Rival organizations will obviously be skeptical about Garcia’s ability to repeat this performance considering his career 90 wRC+ prior to last season. Oddly, his hard hit rate and average exit velocity were basically in line with his 2016 figures. Still, it would be irresponsible for teams to write his 2017 season as entirely a fluke; Garcia did trade a few ground balls for fly balls and improve his contact rate, after all.

Longer-Term Assets

Nate Jones, RHP ($3.95MM salary for 2018, $545K club option for 2019, $3.75MM club option for 2020, $4.25MM club option for 2021. $1.25MM buyout on 2020-2021 options): A quick look at Jones’ numbers since his return from Tommy John surgery makes his contract look like a steal, particularly considering the lucrative deals given out to relievers so far this offseason. However, the righty reliever is highly unlikely to be traded this offseason after missing most of 2017 due to nerve repositioning surgery. He’ll likely need to reestablish his value before the White Sox can move him. A return to his 2016 form, however, would put Jones in the upper echelon of MLB relievers, and send his trade value through the roof.

Yolmer Sanchez, 2B ($2.1 projected arb salary for 2018): Formerly known as Carlos Sanchez, the switch-hitting second baseman rebranded himself in 2017. While it may have created moments of confusion for more casual White Sox fans, they’re just fine it that considering his improvements on the field. This past season, Sanchez hit .267/.319/.413 while playing excellent defense at the keystone. The 25-year-old Venezuela native was worth 8 defensive runs saved in 620 innings and ranked second in UZR/150 among MLB second baseman (minimum 500 innings). With four years of team control remaining, it’s certainly possible that Sanchez could be around for the next competitive White Sox team. However, he could yield plenty of value in a trade.

Carlos Rodon, LHP ($2MM projected arb salary for 2018): In all seriousness, Rodon probably won’t be traded any time soon. After an injury-plagued 2017 season that ended with shoulder surgery, no team will likely be willing to give up the prospects it would take to pry him out of Chicago’s hands. However, he’s on this list simply for the possibility that he could reestablish value prior to the coming season’s trade deadline. While the former number three overall pick might miss a portion of 2018, he comes with enormous upside. With the market for pitching being what it is, trading Rodon could provide an enormous boost to an already-strong farm system. Of course, the White Sox would need to be overwhelmed by an offer in order to consider moving him, as they can still retain him through 2021. Still, the club was content to move Jose Quintana at last year’s deadline, so Rodon is at least worth a mention on this list.

Salary Dump Candidates

James Shields, RHP ($21MM salary for 2018, $16MM club option for 2019 with a $2MM buyout): Any trade involving Shields would probably involve the White Sox sending some money along with him. The right-hander has an ERA well over 5.00 since coming to Chicago, and has walked over four batters per nine innings pitched during that time. His numbers in five September starts this past season were more palatable, however, and it’s worth noting that the White Sox are only on the hook for about half of Shields’ 2018 salary. Perhaps some team will be willing to take a chance on him as a back-of-the-rotation innings eater. Either way, he’s a one-year piece; his 2019 club option is highly unlikely to be exercised.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL East Notes: Ellsbury, Avisail, Blue Jays, JDM, Red Sox, Orioles

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Jacoby Ellsbury’s name was mentioned in trade talks between the Yankees and Diamondbacks, NJ Advance Media’s Brendan Kuty reports, and though “nothing is believed to be off the table,” Arizona didn’t have much interest in the veteran outfielder due to his big price tag.  Ellsbury is owed over $63.3MM through the 2020 season, plus a $5MM of $21MM club option for 2021.  He no longer has a starting job in the crowded New York outfield due to his underwhelming .261/.331/.372 slash line over the last three seasons, and it seems like the Yankees would surely have to eat some money to facilitate a trade, particularly with the D’Backs.  Ellsbury can also block any deal due to his no-trade clause, though he does own a home in Arizona and he has a past relationship with D’Backs GM Mike Hazen from their time in the Red Sox organization.

Some more buzz from around the AL East…

  • The Blue Jays are one of the teams who have spoken to the White Sox about outfielder Avisail Garcia, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (Twitter link).  Chicago doesn’t seem to be close to a deal, however.  Garcia would be a solid answer for the Jays’ hole in right field, as the 26-year-old is coming off an All-Star season that saw him hit .330/.380/.506 with 18 homers over 561 PA.  This success has led the Sox to put a high asking price on his services, though the Jays and other clubs will have to weigh that against Garcia’s .392 BABIP and lack of production prior to 2017.
  • It was a pretty quiet Winter Meetings for the Blue Jays, though GM Ross Atkins tells Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and other reporters that “it just feels like there’s momentum” towards some significant moves after some productive talks with other teams.  Nicholson-Smith wonders if the rising prices in the free agent relief market could help Toronto, as the Jays have several much less-expensive middle relievers that could be available in trades.  Joe Biagini figures to have received some interest from other teams, Nicholson-Smith speculates, though there hasn’t been any indication that the Jays would be looking to move the right-hander.
  • There is considerable interest in how many years J.D. Martinez will land in his next contract, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes.  Many in the industry feel Martinez will easily net a five-year deal, though going beyond that for a player who just turned 30 last August could test the comfort zone of several teams, including the Red Sox.  (MLBTR, for the record, predicted Martinez for a six-year, $150MM deal.)  Scott Boras, Martinez’s agent, set an early asking price of seven years and $210MM for his client, which seems like a very optimistic number now but Boras has a penchant for waiting under deeper in the offseason until he can find his clients an acceptable deal.  This has made Boston’s pursuit of Martinez feel like “a staring contest” between Boras and Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, ESPN.com’s Scott Lauber writes, as Dombrowski is traditionally more aggressive in quickly landing his desired targets.
  • The Orioles were again aggressive with Rule 5 selections, taking three players (left-hander Nestor Cortes and righties Pedro Araujo and Jose Mesa) in this morning’s draft, though they’ll now face a bit of a roster crunch, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun writes.  With the O’s in need of southpaws in the pen, Cortes is the likeliest of the trio to actually spend the whole season on the team’s 25-man roster, which is required for Rule 5 picks to fully become property of their new teams.  Araujo and Mesa are longer shots to take up valuable 25-man spots, though it’s possible Baltimore could work out trades with their original teams (the Cubs and Yankees, respectively) to officially acquire their rights.

Giants Notes: Avisail, Coaches, Ramos, Hamilton

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Here’s the latest out of San Francisco…

  • The Giants “checked in” on Avisail Garcia as part of their search for outfield help, NBCSports.com’s Alex Pavlovic reports.  The White Sox outfielder is coming off a breakout season, and he’d fit the Giants’ needs as a right-handed hitter who comes at a relatively inexpensive price (arbitration-controlled through 2019).  Garcia and Jose Abreu stand out as Chicago’s two biggest remaining veteran trade chips.
  • Also from Pavlovic’s item, he reports that the Giants were going to install Phil Nevin as their new bench coach if Hensley Muelens had been hired as the Yankees’ new manager.  Once New York hired Aaron Boone, Nevin ended up being the one leaving for the pinstripes, taking a job as the Yankees’ new third base coach.  Some Giants officials feel Meulens will only be with the team for another season, as another club will hire him away for a managerial position.
  • Talks between the Giants and Reds about Billy Hamilton failed to materialize since the Giants balked at moving Heliot Ramos, The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly reports.  Ramos has been a hot commodity this winter, as reportedly just about every team the Giants have engaged with in trade talks has asked about the 2017 first-rounder.  While the Reds would have to drop their asking price, Baggarly doesn’t think San Francisco has given up on pursuing Hamilton, as an improved outfield defense would go a long way towards helping the Giants again become competitive.

Looking For A Match In An Avisail Garcia Trade

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Earlier this week, Mark Polishuk examined the potential trade market for Jose Abreu. Another White Sox player who’s likely to receive calls this offseason is right fielder Avisail Garcia, who is coming off a 4.2 fWAR season and is signed through 2019.

Prior to 2017, Fangraphs rated Garcia below replacement level for his career. But last offseason, the Venezuelan native shed some weight and got off to a hot start in April. He continued to crush the ball throughout the first half en route to his first All-Star selection. Although Garcia had a rough July, he finished the season strong, resulting in a .330/.380/.506 batting line. That performance was good for a 137 wRC+, which tied Justin Upton for the 22nd-best mark in all of baseball.

During a season’s end press conference, White Sox GM Rick Hahn admitted that the team is unlikely to win any time soon. “Even under the most optimistic projections of our ability to contend, certainly ’18 and ’19 don’t include the bulk of the time when we anticipate having a window open to us,” Hahn told reporters. This would make Garcia a prime candidate to move for young talent, especially coming off a career year.

The process of putting an approximate trade value on Garcia, however, is incredibly complicated. Unlike teammate Abreu, the outfielder doesn’t have a long track record of success, and it’s not certain he’ll be able to muster something resembling his 2017 production in future years.

One could point to a change in batted ball profile as an indicator that this past year’s success is sustainable. Garcia improved his hard contact and medium contact rates by small margins over his 2016 figures, in addition to increasing his fly ball rate by four percentage points. The most dramatic change was probably his pull rate; Garcia pulled the ball 25% more often this past season than he did the year before. All told, he ranked 53rd in baseball in hard contact rate (35.3%), and 36th in average exit velocity (90.1 MPH).

Of course, those improvements don’t entirely justify an 83-point jump in batting average on balls in play. His .392 BABIP led all of baseball by a large margin, topping second-place Charlie Blackmon’s figure by a 21-point margin. That number is likely to regress significantly, which makes it tough to buy Garcia a legitimate .300 hitter.

That being said, Garcia’s contract will certainly have some surplus value in the eyes of rival teams. He may not have the reputation necessary to bring back a truly elite minor-leaguer, but it’s not hard to imagine some team forking over a top-100 or even top-50 prospect in hopes that Garcia can be a 3-win player for them for each of the next two seasons. When looking at potential suitors, it’s probably best to examine those teams for whom he would provide an obvious upgrade even if he were to regress a bit.

The Blue Jays have the resources to swing a deal and a need in the outfield, but might prefer to find another left-handed option. It also might not make much sense to trade for Garcia when Anthony Alford will probably debut at some point in 2017.

The Rays could use a righty-hitting outfielder, and they have a number of prospects in a more appropriate range to headline a deal for Garcia. Making such a trade would be a more realistic alternative to spending money on a right-handed outfielder in free agency, as Tampa Bay obviously isn’t known for their ability to spend.

Although their outfield is fairly crowded already, the Indians saw right-handed-hitting Austin Jackson reach free agency this offseason. With questions surrounding the health of Brandon Guyer, the Tribe would probably be well-served to add another righty option to their outfield group. They won’t be inclined to give up Francisco Mejia or Triston McKenzie, but they do have a number of intriguing upside youngsters; they might be able to lure Garcia away from their division rivals with some combination of those players.

The Rockies seem like a really good match on paper; they’re in need of an outfielder who bats from the right side, and have prospects they could afford to give up if they believed in the new version of Garcia.

The Diamondbacks seem like the best match to me. They have a J.D. Martinez-sized hole to fill in the outfield, and they’re ready to push for contention again in 2018. With Pavin Smith and Jon Duplantier at least a full year away from contributing, Arizona could opt to trade one of them as a cheaper alternative to the nine-figure contract Martinez would require in order to return. Because he’s such a defensive liability, Martinez actually finished 2017 with a lower fWAR than Garcia, who played roughly average defense for Chicago. That’s obviously not to say that Garcia should be the more coveted player, but he’s definitely got his pros as an alternative.

Other options that make some level of sense include the Giants and Rangers. But the conundrum here is that it’s hard to predict exactly how teams will value Garcia, including the White Sox themselves. It’s not often that career sub-replacement outfielders suddenly become All-Stars, so it will be interesting to track rumors surrounding Avi this offseason and see what develops.

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