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Avisail Garcia

Injury Notes: Duvall, Marte, Marlins

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Red Sox outfielder Adam Duvall left his game after suffering an apparent wrist injury while making a diving play in center field, as noted by Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe. As noted by Julian McWilliams of The Boston Globe, Duvall had x-rays done on his wrist, the same one on which he underwent season-ending surgery in 2022, following his exit from today’s game. No results have been announced regarding Duvall’s x-ray. Duvall signed with the club this past offseason on a one-year, $7MM guarantee.

Should Duvall miss significant time, Boston figures to rely on some combination of Raimel Tapia and Jarren Duran in center field, though the heavily left-handed Red Sox could also give Yu Chang additional starts at shortstop, allowing Enrique Hernandez to move from the infield back into center field, where he spent the majority of the past two seasons. Regardless of who ultimately replaces Duvall in the lineup, any missed time would be a real blow to Boston’s offense early in the season, as Duvall has raked to open the 2023 campaign. In his first 33 plate appearances this season, Duvall has slashed a whopping .483/.545/1.138 with four home runs, five doubles, and a triple while either scoring or knocking in 25 of the club’s 55 runs.

More injury updates…

  • Starling Marte left today’s game against the Marlins after the first inning due to what the Mets described as a neck strain.  Marte suffered the injury while stealing third base in the bottom of the first, as Marte’s slide took him headfirst into the knee of Miami third baseman Jean Segura.  He remained in the game for the remainder of the inning, but Jeff McNeil moved from second base to take Marte’s spot in the right field for the top of the second. Manager Buck Showalter expressed optimism regarding Marte, telling reporters (including Laura Albanese of Newsday) “so far so good” as it pertains to Marte having avoided a concussion. Any missed time by Marte seems likely to benefit outfielder Tommy Pham in terms of playing time, though it’s also possible that the club could call up a player like Danny Mendick to take some starts if Marte requires a trip to the injured list.
  • The Marlins had a pair of players leave today’s game as well, with Avisail Garcia exiting the game with what was termed “left hamstring soreness”, according to the Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson, while J.T. Chargois exited with an apparent injury just three pitches into the seventh inning. Chargois, who the Marlins acquired from the Rays via trade back in November, has been a useful reliever in recent years, recording a 2.36 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate in 80 innings since the start of the 2021 season. Garcia, on the other hand, is entering the second season of a four-year deal he signed with the Marlins prior to the 2021 season that he has struggled to live up to to this point. Despite entering the contract as a career 104 wRC+ hitter coming off a strong 29-homer season in 2021 where he posted a wRC+ of 116, Garcia has slashed just .216/.259/.310 (62 wRC+) in his first 106 games as a Marlin, with a 28.9% strikeout rate above his career norms and just nine home runs.

Marlins Select Jordan Groshans

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4:13pm: Miami cleared the active roster spot by placing Avisail Garcia on the 10-day injured list with a hamstring issue, tweets Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. Garcia has had a rough first season in South Florida, hitting only .230/.267/.316 through 357 plate appearances.

11:30am: The Marlins are planning to select the contract of infielder Jordan Groshans, reports Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. Groshans is not currently on Miami’s 40-man roster, though they already have a vacancy there. A corresponding move will be required to get Groshans onto the active roster.

Groshans, 22, is a former first round pick of the Blue Jays, getting selected 12th overall in 2018. He played 48 games in rookie ball after that draft and jumped onto Baseball America’s top 100 list, coming in at #89 going into 2019. Groshans then went to A-ball and mashed to the tune of .337/.427/.482, though was limited to just 23 games by a foot injury. BA continued to believe in the results and bumped him all the way up to #29 on their list going into 2020.

After the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues that year, Groshans came into 2021 having only played 23 games over the previous two years. He spent the year at Double-A and showed little rust, at least in terms of putting the bat on the ball, walking in 10.8% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 19.3% of them. However, a back injury limited him to 75 games and seemed to prevent him from providing much power. He hit seven long balls in that time but still put up a healthy batting line of .291/.367/.450, wRC+ of 124.

Coming into 2022, he slid off of BA’s top 100 but was still considered the #4 prospect in Toronto’s system. Their report complimented his feel for the strike zone and all-fields approach but raised concerns about his power potential and inability to stay healthy for a full season. The Jays had Groshans in Triple-A for most of the year, where did manage to stay healthy but still struggled to bring much pop. In 67 games for the Bisons, he walked at a 12.5% rate and struck out just 16.5% of the time but went over the fence just once. That led to a slash line of .250/.348/.296, wRC+ of 81.

The Jays flipped Groshans to the Marlins just prior to the deadline, getting Anthony Bass, Zach Pop and Edward Duran (as a player who was named later) in return. Since then, Groshans has played 31 games for the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, hitting .301/.398/.416. That’s a much nicer looking slash line than what he did in Buffalo, though it includes just another two home runs, bringing his season total to three.

Groshans is currently listed as the #9 Marlins prospect at Baseball America, #11 at FanGraphs and #12 at MLB Pipeline. All three reports highlight the quality strike zone work but raise concerns about the lack of power. Whether his profile at the plate proves useful might depend on his eventual defensive position. Groshans has primarily been a shortstop in his career thus far, though also played elsewhere on the infield. Since acquiring him, the Marlins have split his time almost evenly between second, third and short. Most reports suggest he’s better suited to third base than shortstop, which would mean he’d need to take a step forward in the power department. Corner infielders are generally expected to provide more thump than their counterparts up the middle, making the overall Groshans package an unusual one at the moment.

For the Marlins, they came into this season with designs on competing. Their pitching was in good shape but they knew they needed to improve the lineup, adding Jorge Soler, Avisail Garcia, Joey Wendle and Jacob Stallings. Unfortunately, all four of that group has fallen short of expectations, with many of Miami’s in-house options also struggling. The team as a whole has hit .229/.294/.361 for a wRC+ of 86 that’s 27th in the majors. That’s a big reason why the club has limped to a 58-83 record this year and are well out of contention.

With just about three weeks left on the schedule, the Fish can use that time to evaluate some younger players before deciding on their offseason plan of attack. Groshans will step into an infield mix that includes Wendle, Jon Berti, Brian Anderson, Miguel Rojas, Garrett Cooper and Charles Leblanc. There’s also Jazz Chisholm Jr., who won’t return this season due to a back injury but figures to be the regular second baseman next year.

For Groshans, it’s possible that the extended absences from the pandemic and his injuries have prevented him from getting into a good grove and he’s still blossoming. He’s also still just 22 years old, turning 23 in November, giving him time to develop different facets of his game. For a Marlins club that’s been searching for offense for quite some time, they will be hoping he can find that extra gear. With Wendle, Anderson, Rojas and Cooper all slated for free agency after 2023, there could be plenty of openings for a long-term job if he does.

Injury Notes: García, Oller, Iglesias

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The Marlins activated outfielder Avisaíl García from the injured list today, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald, after missing over a month due to a hamstring strain. Fellow outfielder Peyton Burdick was optioned in a corresponding move.

It’s been a disappointing season for García, the first of a four-year, $53MM deal he signed with with the Marlins. The Fish were surely hoping García could add some thump to their lineup after he hit 29 homers with the Brewers last year and slashed .262/.330/.490 for a wRC+ of 115. But he’s hit just seven long balls in 88 games this year, producing an overall line of .232/.269/.322, wRC+ of 68.

The Marlins are 17 1/2 games out of a playoff spot now and won’t be playing for much down the stretch. But García will look to get back into a groove and finish the season strong, going into the winter with some momentum and optimism for 2023.

Some other injury notes from around the league…

  • The Athletics announced a series of roster moves today, one of which was placing righty Adam Oller on the 15-day injured list. Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle relays that Oller’s IL placement is due to “right rib costochondritis.” The club hasn’t provided a timeline for the hurler, but he’ll miss at least the next couple of weeks. Since there’s only about four weeks remaining on the schedule, it’s possible that he’s done for the year. Acquired from the Mets in the Chris Bassitt trade, Oller made his MLB debut this year, tossing 73 1/3 innings with a 6.01 ERA, 13.4% strikeout rate, 11.2% walk rate and 31.7% ground ball rate.
  • The Rockies placed infielder José Iglesias on the 10-day injured list today due to a right hand contusion. Iglesias signed a one-year, $5MM deal with the Rockies in the offseason and became the first shortstop atop Colorado’s depth chart not named “Tulowitzki” or “Story” since 2006. He’s having another season typical of his career, providing solid defense while hitting a bit below league average. His batting line for the year is .300/.337/.392, producing a wRC+ of 92. Though that’s 8% below league average, his defensive contributions have allowed him to rack up 1.4 fWAR on the year. This offseason will feature another batch of superstar shortstops, including Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts, assuming those latter two opt out of their respective contracts. Iglesias isn’t quite at their level but will be in the next tier down, next to players like Elvis Andrus. With Iglesias out of the lineup the past three days, Alan Trejo has been slotted into the shortstop position.

Injury Notes: Skubal, Bednar, Garcia

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The Tigers placed starter Tarik Skubal on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to yesterday, due to arm fatigue. The southpaw left his start on Monday after feeling the fatigue, and he’ll now be out for at least the next two weeks. Skubal indicated on Monday he didn’t anticipate missing any additional starts. That obviously won’t be the case, but there’s no indication the club is acting out of anything more than an abundance of caution in skipping a couple of his turns through the rotation. Detroit’s already looking ahead towards 2023, and there’s little reason to press the issue with one of their top young arms unless he’s completely healthy.

Few players in the organization are as impactful as Skubal, who has taken a significant step in his second full MLB season. Through 117 2/3 innings, he carries a 3.52 ERA with an above-average 24.5% strikeout rate and 45.7% ground-ball percentage. Skubal has demonstrated strong control, and, perhaps most importantly, is allowing just 0.67 homers per nine innings pitched. He allowed more than two homers per nine last season, the main contributor to a 4.34 ERA that’s almost a run higher than this season’s mark.

Some other notes on injured list placements:

  • Pirates closer David Bednar landed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to July 31, due to lower back inflammation. There’s no specific timetable for his return, but Pittsburgh director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk told reporters that Bednar had been pushing to pitch through the issue (via Mike Persak of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). That’d seemingly indicate the 27-year-old Bednar doesn’t consider the issue too serious, but the club is taking a cautious approach. Bednar has cemented himself as one of the sport’s top relievers this season, his second with the Bucs after heading over from the Padres in the Joe Musgrove trade over the 2020-21 offseason. The big right-hander has a sub-3.00 ERA in both seasons as a Pirate, including a 2.70 mark with an excellent 33.5% strikeout rate through 46 2/3 frames this year.
  • The Marlins placed outfielder Avisaíl García on the 10-day injured list due to a left hamstring strain. Designated hitter/first baseman Garrett Cooper was activated from a minimal IL stint of his own to take the active roster spot. The club hasn’t provided a timetable on García’s absence. Signed to a four-year deal over the offseason, García has had a rough first season in South Florida. Across 342 plate appearances, he owns a meager .232/.269/.322 line with seven home runs — a marked drop in power production from last year’s 29-homer campaign with the Brewers. The 31-year-old is also striking out at a career-worst 27.8% clip and walking in only 3.8% of his trips to the dish. Miami had hoped that multi-year free agent signings of García and Jorge Soler would invigorate a lackluster offense, but both right-handed hitters have underwhelmed during their initial seasons of those deals.

Marlins Make Three Roster Moves

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The Marlins announced a trio of roster moves this morning, including the reinstatement of Avisail Garcia from the COVID-related injured list.  Miami also designated infielder Joe Dunand for assignment to create a 40-man roster space, while right-hander Cody Poteet was placed on the 15-day injured list due to a muscle injury in his right elbow.

Garcia returns after just a two-day absence, indicating that his placement on the COVID-IL was precautionary or due to virus symptoms, but not an actual positive test.  The outfielder will return from his brief break and look to get his season turned around, as Garcia has slashed a meager .207/.237/.290 over his first 152 plate appearances in a Marlins uniform.

Pitching in his second MLB season, Poteet has a 2.42 ERA and 55.7% grounder rate over 26 innings in 2022.  Most of that work has come out of the bullpen as a long reliever, but two of Poteet’s last three outings were starts, as Miami has needed a replacement for the injured Jesus Luzardo.  Poteet’s last appearance on May 25 didn’t go well, as the Rays tagged him for five runs over three innings of work in a 5-4 Marlins loss.

With Poteet now sidelined for at least the next 15 days, there will be more speculation about which of the Marlins’ promising young arms could be called up to the big league rotation.  Since top prospect Max Meyer is recovering from ulnar nerve irritation, Edward Cabrera could be the logical candidate, as Cabrera last pitched on May 26.  Between a visa issue in Spring Training and then a biceps injury, Cabrera didn’t pitch until April 27, but he has since banked six minor league starts and a combined 3.90 ERA over 27 2/3 innings.

As for Luzardo himself, it isn’t yet clear when the southpaw could return from his forearm strain.  Miami manager Don Mattingly told reporters (including MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola) today that Luzardo’s recovery is “not as good as we would’ve liked,” as the left-hander has yet to begin throwing.  Luzuardo’s IL stint is backdated to May 12, so he is already beyond the 15-day minimum period.

Dunand made his MLB debut this season, appearing in three games with the Marlins and delivering a 1.064 OPS over his 11 plate appearances.  The Miami native doesn’t have a standout minor league track record, so the Marlins could be betting that another team won’t put in a waiver claim on the 26-year-old Dunand.  That said, Dunand also has a lot of experience as a third baseman and shortstop plus a few games at the other two infield positions, so a club in need of infield depth might check him out on the DFA wire.

Marlins Notes: Reynolds, Hernandez, Bullpen, Neidert, Sixto

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The Marlins were on the hunt for outfield upgrades all winter, eventually culminating in multi-year free agent deals with Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler. Neither player required parting with young talent, but the Fish looked into potential higher-impact acquisitions on the trade market.

Miami has long had interest in prying star center fielder Bryan Reynolds from Pittsburgh, and Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald shed some light on the teams’ discussions. The Bucs and Marlins discussed permutations that would’ve involved top shortstop prospect Kahlil Watson — Miami’s first-round pick last summer — headed back as part of a deal. However, Jackson and Mish write that the Marlins balked at including both Watson and 2020 #3 overall pick Max Meyer in a Reynolds trade.

Baseball America placed both Watson and Meyer among the back half of their Top 100 prospects this winter. Watson, a lefty-hitting shortstop with big bat speed and athleticism, fell to the Marlins at 16th in last year’s draft but signed for the 10th-highest bonus. That better reflected how evaluators viewed him as an amateur prospect, and he’s generally regarded as one of the highest-upside players in the minors. Meyer, meanwhile, has one of the minors’ best fastball-slider combinations and struck out 27.2% of Double-A hitters in his first full pro season. Prospect evaluators have raised some concerns about his size and command consistency, but he boasts a high-octane arsenal and isn’t that far from MLB readiness.

Parting with both Watson and Meyer would’ve been quite a blow to the Miami farm system, but it reflects the huge asking price the Pirates can justifiably set with four years of arbitration control over Reynolds. Reports going back to last summer’s trade deadline have suggested the Bucs preferred to build around him rather than move him. Reynolds told reporters (including Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) this afternoon the Pirates haven’t approached him about an extension this offseason, and they’re set to go to an arbitration hearing to determine his 2022 salary after not agreeing to terms yesterday. Still, the 27-year-old downplayed the notion that a hearing could affect his relationship with the organization. “I’m an adult,” he said. “I can handle it. I don’t care. I have a pretty good idea of what’ll be said and all that. We’ll prepare, and we’ll be fine.”

Jackson and Mish write the Marlins and Pirates may eventually revisit trade talks, although it’ll again be difficult to pry him out of Pittsburgh. The Herald reports the Marlins also had some pre-lockout discussions with the Blue Jays regarding corner outfielder Teoscar Hernández, but those conversations are no longer active. Soler’s signing to play right field would seem to close the door on the possibility of Miami making a run at another corner outfielder/DH option like Hernández.

Speaking with reporters (including Christina De Nicola of MLB.com) this afternoon, general manager Kim Ng expressed her confidence in the Miami outfield. She pointed to García and Bryan De La Cruz as options to see some time in center field, while Jackson and Mish write that Jesús Sánchez could get a look there as well. Ng didn’t expressly rule out the possibility of further moves on the position player side, but she suggested it was more likely they’d look to add another arm to the bullpen.

“As I mentioned, the bat was first and foremost, and making sure that we secured that and what the parameters of that looked like,” Ng said (via De Nicola). “And now we’re definitely focused on relievers. I will say that I’ve gotten some nice reports on some of the guys here, so we might be able to pull from within as well.”

Among those internal possibilities is right-hander Nick Neidert. A well-regarded starting pitching prospect early in his career, Neidert has yet to find success in 44 MLB innings. The Marlins are deep in rotation options, and manager Don Mattingly told reporters today that Neidert will transition to a bullpen role (De Nicola link). Despite his profile as a changeup specialist — which theoretically should aid him against opposite-handed batters — Neidert has been hit at a .314/.444/.500 clip by lefties in the majors. He was similarly ineffective against southpaws in Triple-A last season (.306/.393/.471), and the bullpen role may afford Mattingly the opportunity to deploy him more often with the platoon advantage.

At present, the Marlins look likely to open the year with a starting five of Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Pablo López, Elieser Hernández and Jesús Luzardo. That’s a particularly strong top end, and Miami has high-upside young arms like Meyer, Edward Cabrera and Sixto Sánchez who could factor into the mix at some point.

Sánchez has already had some MLB success, but he missed the entire 2021 season due to injury and will also begin this year on the injured list as he recovers from last July’s shoulder surgery. De Nicola tweets that the fireballing 23-year-old is currently a third of the way through a six-week shutdown period. Given that he won’t even pick up a ball until at least a few weeks into the season, it seems likely he’ll spend a fairly significant amount of time on the IL to open the year.

Latest On Marlins’ Outfield

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The Marlins headed into the offseason looking for at least one outfield upgrade and checked one addition off the box prior to the lockout when securing Avisail Garcia on a four-year, $53MM contract. They’re still hoping to add “at least one more” outfielder when the current transaction freeze lifts, Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald writes, which meshes well with recent reports tying the Fish to myriad outfield options.

They were linked, to varying extents, free-agent options such as Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Eddie Rosario even after adding Garcia. On the trade front, they’re reported to have interest in D-backs star Ketel Marte. One note of importance in their search to add to the outfield mix, via a second column from McPherson, is that general manager Kim Ng suggested the team believes the newly signed Garcia can play regularly in center field, if needed.

Miami doesn’t have a true, everyday center fielder at present, and at least ostensibly, the Marlins look to be carrying quite a few corner-only outfielders (e.g. Garcia, Jesus Sanchez, Garrett Cooper). Deadline acquisition Bryan De La Cruz has some experience in center (629 innings between MLB and the minors), but a good portion of that (199 innings) came out of necessity with the Marlins late last season. Meanwhile, he has just shy of 3000 career innings in right field and another 723 in left field, suggesting that the Astros –who traded him to Miami in the Yimi Garcia deal this past July — viewed him as mostly a corner option, at the very least.

A willingness to play Garcia in center field would open up the Fish to adding another corner option. To that end, it’s worth noting that MLB Network’s Jon Heyman suggested last week on his Big Time Baseball Podcast that Miami “may end up with Rosario” being their preferred option as a second outfield pickup. Both Rosario and Garcia have played a fair bit of center field in their careers, so if the former indeed joins the latter in Miami, perhaps both could see occasional time there.

Following the Marlins’ signing of Garcia and their pre-lockout trades to acquire catcher Jacob Stallings and infielder Joey Wendle, Miami has $23.8MM in guaranteed payroll and a projected Opening Day payroll of about $69MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez (including arbitration-eligible players and pre-arb players). That’d be a jump of about $12MM from last year’s stripped-down roster, but even for a typically low-payroll club like the Marlins, there’s room to add onto that mark. The Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter ownership group has in the past been reported to be planning a gradual payroll uptick as the team emerges from a rebuilding effort. The Garcia signing, the Sandy Alcantara extension and the acquisitions of some arb-eligible players with salaries of relative note (Stallings, Wendle) all support that line of thinking.

Marlins Sign Avisail Garcia

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TODAY: The Marlins officially announced the signing.  The contract details are provided by Jon Heyman, who notes that Miami’s 2026 club option is worth $12MM, with a $5MM buyout.  Garcia will earn an even $12MM in each of the 2022-25 seasons, and he will also donate $120K per year to the Marlins’ team charity.

NOVEMBER 28: The Marlins have agreed to a four-year contract with free agent Avisail Garcia, SportsGrid’s Craig Mish reports (via Twitter).  Garcia will earn $53MM, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.  Garcia is represented by Mato Sports Management.

Mish notes that this is the largest contract the Marlins have handed out under owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter, who purchased the team more than four years ago.  The Marlins are “far from done,” tweets Mish.  Garcia joins Jesus Sanchez in the Marlins’ outfield, after the club reportedly made a strong push to bring Starling Marte back before he signed with the Mets.  The Marlins continue to sit on perhaps the game’s best starting pitching surplus, suggesting GM Kim Ng may solve some of the team’s other needs on the trade market.

MLBTR had predicted a three-year, $36MM contract for Garcia, who managed to snag an extra year and a better average annual value.  Garcia’s contract is exactly double that of Mark Canha, who signed with the Mets two days ago at the same $13.25MM AAV.  Garcia, 31 in June, posted a fine 115 wRC+ in 135 games for the Brewers this year.  Garcia’s two-year, $20MM contract with the Brewers included a provision that converted a $12MM club option into a mutual one once he reached a certain plate appearance threshold in September.  That allowed Garcia to become a free agent.  Likely fearing acceptance, the budget-conscious Brewers elected not to make the one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer.

Garcia has had an up-and-down career since signing with the Tigers for $200K as a 16-year-old out of Venezuela back in 2007.  The toolsy outfielder reached the Majors as a 21-year-old in 2012 and was traded to the White Sox the following year as part of a three-team deal that sent Jake Peavy to the Red Sox and Jose Iglesias to Detroit.  Garcia fell short of expectations in Chicago until a BABIP-driven 138 wRC+ in 2017.  After a down 2018 season that culminated in knee surgery, the White Sox chose not to tender Garcia a contract with a projected $8MM arbitration salary looming.

The Rays swooped in with a one-year, $3.5MM free agent contract for Garcia, who rode a 113 wRC+ in 2019 to the aforementioned two-year contract with Milwaukee.  It’s fair to question why, two years later, Garcia is coming off a similar season and managed to secure $33MM more than last time.  Interestingly, Marte was reportedly “seeking a three- or four-year deal in the $50 million range” back in July when the Marlins attempted to extend him, according to Jordan McPherson and Craig Mish in the Miami Herald.  The Marlins didn’t get there, trading Marte for Jesus Luzardo before attempting to sign him back last week.  It’s been an odd sequence of events for the Marlins, who ended up with Garcia for a similar price to what Marte might have cost.

The answer to Garcia’s appeal might lie in Statcast, where his top of the charts numbers have always hinted at something more.  This year, he ranked in the 73rd percentile for average exit velocity, 98th for maximum exit velocity, 78th for hard hit percentage, and 80th for barrel rate.  Garcia simply hits the ball very hard, even if this year’s 29 home runs represented a career best.  Garcia pairs his hard-hitting with 88th percentile sprint speed, so his is a rare blend of athleticism.  Defensively, Garcia has been a bit below average in Outs Above Average over the past few years.

We’ve seen a flurry of hot stove activity today with three days remaining until the collective bargaining agreement expires, with December 1st serving as a transaction deadline of sorts.  Today alone, we’ve seen free agent contracts for Marcus Semien, Corey Kluber, and Garcia, as well as an extension for Byron Buxton.  After the CBA expires, ownership is widely expected to lock out the players and freeze free agency, speculatively until the eve of spring training in February.  This has created an unprecedented urgency from teams in free agency, resulting in many November contracts that have exceeded expectations.

Marlins Notes: Avisail, Castellanos, Lopez, Hernandez, Blue Jays

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The Marlins are intent on adding offense, and are exploring both the free agent and trade routes to accomplish this goal.  On the open market, the Marlins have shown interest in Avisail Garcia (as per The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson) and they have spoken with agent Scott Boras, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.  Boras represents any number of top hitters in this year’s free agent market, though Heyman observes that outfielder Nick Castellanos is from Miami, even if it’s “hard to see [the Marlins] affording him.”

Using MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list as reference, we have Castellanos pegged for a five-year, $115MM deal, not to mention the additional draft pick compensation the Marlins would need to surrender since Castellanos has rejected the Reds’ qualifying offer.  Garcia is projected for three years and $36MM, which much more realistic even for a Marlins team that has expressed a willingness to flex a bit more financial muscle this winter.  As it happens, our Garcia estimate is pretty close to the three-year, $30MM extension offer the Marlins floated at Starling Marte last summer, so that could give some hint as to what the team is prepared to spend.

Garcia is less expensive and is a better defender than Castellanos, though Castellanos has a more consistent track record as a hitter.  Garcia does happen to be coming off one of the best seasons of his career, after hitting .262/.330/.490 with a personal-best 29 homers in 515 PA with the Brewers.  While Garcia alone wouldn’t elevate Miami’s lineup, Heyman believes the Marlins could “acquire multiple hitters that cost somewhat less” than one big splashy acquisition like Castellanos.

The opportunity also exists for the Marlins to trade from their pitching surplus, and MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Blue Jays are one of the teams who have been in touch with Miami.  Heyman identifies Pablo Lopez and Elieser Hernandez as the Marlins’ “most available arms,” likely in the context of Lopez and Hernandez being the type of big league-ready pitchers that would appeal to a win-now team like Toronto.

Since the Jays have a catching surplus and the Marlins have a need behind the plate, Alejandro Kirk seems like a logical trade possibility, Morosi opines.  Kirk may have the most trade value of any Blue Jays catcher besides star prospect Gabriel Moreno, and Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes that Moreno “appears extremely unlikely” to be dealt anywhere.  Toronto could also be a fit for the Marlins’ outfield needs, as Nicholson-Smith notes that the Jays have been getting a lot of interest in their catchers and outfielders at the GM Meetings.

Brewers Won’t Issue Qualifying Offer To Avisail Garcia

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NOVEMBER 7: The Brewers won’t issue a qualifying offer to Garcia or any of their free agents, MLB.com’s Tim McCalvy reports (via Twitter).

NOVEMBER 5: Avisail Garcia declined his end of a $12MM mutual option with the Brewers yesterday, opting for a $2MM buyout and a return trip to the free agent market. Before he formally hits free agency on Sunday at 5pm ET, however, the Brewers will have the opportunity to issue him a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer. No decision on that front has been made just yet, but the Brewers are indeed considering that course of action, writes Will Sammon of The Athletic.

If Milwaukee does issue a qualifying offer Sunday, Garcia would have ten days to determine whether to accept or reject. Garcia and agent Gene Mato would be able to negotiate with other teams during that ten-day window in order to get an early sense of the market. If Garcia were to accept that $18.4MM offer, he’d be signed for the 2022 season and effectively ineligible to be traded prior to next June 15, as is the case with all free agents who sign Major League contracts.

Were Garcia to reject the offer, he’d be subject to draft pick compensation; any team that signed Garcia would do so at the cost of forfeitures in next year’s draft. The exact compensation varies from team to team. Teams that paid the luxury tax in 2021 (i.e. Dodgers, Padres) would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest picks in the draft, in addition to $1MM of next year’s league-allotted international bonus pool. Teams that received revenue-sharing would forfeit their third-highest pick in the draft. Any of the 15 other teams would forfeit its second-highest pick and see a $500K reduction in its international bonus pool. (The team-by-team breakdown of those categories can be seen in this previous piece from MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes.)

The Brewers, meanwhile, would receive a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2022 draft if Garcia signs a contract worth $50MM or more in guaranteed money. Should Garcia sign for less, Milwaukee would receive a compensatory pick after next year’s Competitive Balance Round B — typically in the No. 75 to 80 range.

On the one hand, making an offer is a risk for the Brewers. There’s at least a chance that Garcia would accept the offer in hopes of producing another strong season and returning to the open market next year, without the burden of draft compensation. Garcia accepting a qualifying offer would push Milwaukee’s projected payroll up into the $140MM range for next season — well north of the team’s current Opening Day record of about $122.5MM (from 2019).

On the other hand, Garcia’s 2021 season — .262/.330/.490, 29 home runs, 18 doubles, eight stolen bases, strong right field defense — was certainly worth that $18.4MM. Were he to accept and repeat that production, it’d hardly be an egregious overpay. And, that strong showing both at the plate and in the field has made Garcia a clear candidate for a multi-year deal in free agency. He’s not likely to secure that same $18.4MM value on an annual basis, but he could earn a much larger guarantee over a longer term. Players reject the qualifying offer more often than they accept, as most generally prefer the stability and security of a long-term deal. Longer-term pacts protect them against any injury or regression that might occur in the event of accepting the QO, and it’s eminently understandable that players with families prefer the continuity of a multi-year pact rather than moving those families around the continent on a year-to-year basis.

Market context matters, too. There’s a fair number of corner outfield options on the market this winter, with Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Starling Marte (who can also play center), Mark Canha, Michael Conforto, Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario among the available options. Garcia falls into the middle of that group, but his stock could be strengthened by the fact that not every team will be able to afford the very top-of-the-market options. Garcia could well be viewed as one of the more palatable options in that next tier, offering a promising blend of power, athleticism and defense.

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