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Aroldis Chapman

Quick Hits: Yankees, Chapman, Rays, Morton, Nationals, Rizzo, Martinez

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The New York Yankees will make a decision about Aroldis Chapman’s timeline to return to action after a throwing session on Tuesday, per ESPN’s Marly Rivera. Chapman has yet to make an appearance this season. He tested positive for COVID-19 back on July 11th after showing mild symptoms. Chapman has been working his way back to full strength and hopes to return to the back end of the Yanks bullpen shortly. Last season, Chapman put together another top-notch campaign with 37 saves in 60 games and a 2.21 ERA/2.28 FIP while striking out 13.4 batters per nine innings.

  • Charlie Morton of the Tampa Bay Rays left his start today with right shoulder inflammation, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com. The Rays do not appear to be overly concerned about Morton in the long-term. The 36-year-old hasn’t gotten off to a great start with a 5.52 ERA across three starts, though it’s obviously s small sample, and a 4.06 FIP isn’t quite so pessimistic of his performance.
  • The Washington Nationals aren’t any closer to coming to terms on an extension either for manager Dave Martinez or GM Mike Rizzo, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter links). Both are in the final year of their current deals. The Nationals have proven a fairly conservative organization and one that won’t budge due to public perception. For their parts, both Martinez and Rizzo appear to have great trust in the organization. Given that the Nats are coming off a World Series championship, it’s hard to imagine either man moving on. Rizzo is the longstanding architect of these Nats – one of the most sustainable contenders of the last decade – while Martinez is the culture of the club in its current iteration. He has both the respect and the admiration of his players, by all accounts. This is pure conjecture, but Nats ownership may be taking a principled stance by waiting on these extensions. They’ve routinely let star players play out the final seasons of their deals, and it shows some organizational continuity to do the same with Rizzo and Martinez.

Aroldis Chapman Cleared To Return To Yankees

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Star closer Aroldis Chapman is headed back to the Yankees, per ESPN.com’s Marly Rivera (Twitter link). Having previously tested positive for COVID-19, he had to register a pair of negative tests.

It isn’t yet clear whether Chapman will jump right onto the active roster at this time. He hit the injured list on July 11th, so he has been out of action for a decent stretch, but perhaps he won’t require much of a ramp-up if he has been able to throw while on the sideline.

The Yanks worked out a new deal last fall with Chapman, who could’ve opted out and tested free agency. The 32-year-old is earning a pro-rated portion of a $16MM salary this year and will be due the same in each of the next two campaigns.

It’s good to hear that Chapman was able to clear the virus in short order. And it’s obviously also great news for the back of the Yankees pen. Chapman’s flamethrower of a left arm wasn’t quite as hot last year, when he averaged a mere 98.2 mph on his four-seam fastball, but he offset that by gaining confidence in his slider.

Even in his slightly less-dominant form, Chapman remained an absolute force. He threw 57 innings of 2.21 ERA ball last year, sporting a 14.1% swinging-strike rate while allowing just 0.47 homers per nine.

Latest On Aroldis Chapman

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The Yankees will enter their season Thursday missing their top reliever, closer Aroldis Chapman, who tested postive for the coronavirus July 11. Almost two weeks later, it remains unclear when Chapman will be able to debut in 2020, as general manager Brian Cashman said Wednesday (via Dan Martin of the New York Post) that the left-hander has “been testing positive since he’s been diagnosed.” Chapman has been “mostly symptom-free,” according to Cashman, but he’ll need two negative tests before he’s eligible to rejoin the club.

One of the most dominant relievers in baseball history, the 32-year-old Chapman held his own yet again in 2019 with 57 innings of 2.21 ERA/2.28 FIP ball and 13.42 K/9 against 3.95 BB/9. He also racked up 37 saves, giving him 273 since his career began with the Reds in 2010. Chapman could have opted out of the last two years and $30MM of his previous contract over the winter, but the Yankees prevented him from leaving by tacking on an extra season worth $18MM.

With Chapman unavailable for the time being, Cashman admitted the Yankees’ depth “is gonna be tested once again right out of the gate.” The World Series hopefuls do have at least a few other capable late-game options, though. That includes Zack Britton, who has accumulated 145 career saves and will fill in for Chapman. The Yankees also boast accomplished setup men in Adam Ottavino, Tommy Kahnle and Chad Green.

Aroldis Chapman Tests Positive For COVID-19

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The Yankees announced today that left-handed pitcher Aroldis Chapman has tested positive for COVID-19, showing mild symptoms (H/t Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Needless to say, Chapman will be away from the team and won’t be allowed to participate in team workouts for the foreseeable future. He’ll need to test negative twice before he’s allowed to rejoin the Yankees.

Chapman’s positive test occurred after he passed the Yankees’ initial intake process and began team workouts, meaning that he had trained with the team at Yankee Stadium prior to testing positive. The Yankees conducted contract tracing after learning of Chapman’s results on Thursday, with James Wagner of The New York Times reporting that the process revealed no further positive tests.

The Yankees have also had Luis Cessa and DJ LeMahieu test positive for the virus, making Chapman the third Yankee to receive a diagnosis since the season reboot.

Should Chapman’s illness prevent him from playing in regular season games for the Yankees, veteran Zack Britton is the standout choice to take on the bulk of the closing duties in New York. That said, the unusual nature of this season will likely alter bullpen usage as we know it, so teams might be hesitant to rely on a single closer day in and day out. Nonetheless, look for Britton to pick up some slack in high-leverage innings.

Which Pitchers Should Fear Robot Umpires?

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The future of baseball is filled with uncertainty these days, but there is one thing we do know about the future of the sport: robot umpires are coming!

Just ask Jayson Stark of the Athletic, who wrote back in January, “MLB is moving purposefully toward the world of electronic strike zones. And now that even the umpires’ union has pledged its cooperation, it’s almost a sure bet: This. Is. Happening.”

Stark’s not new to the robot revolution, as he’s written about the issue here and here as well. The fact is, electronic strike zones are already being implemented through trials in the Atlantic League and Spring Training. The fact that umpires have given their okay to begin testing makes their eventual implementation all but guaranteed.

Not only are electronic strike zones on their way, but it could happen sooner than you think. Stark suggests they’ll be in the majors potentially as early as 2022. Given that most prospects taken in the draft project to make their debuts in 3-5 years, teams are already drafting with the world of electronic strike zones firmly in their sights.

With this change coming, let’s table for a moment the many technical issues the league will face and instead consider the practical implications for the players. As I wrote after Stark’s report back in January, “The mental games used to inch the strike zone this way or that has long been a tool of the game’s best – from the hitters whose impeccable eye define it, to the pitchers’ whose pinpoint control push to expand it – but an automated zone will all but abolish the in-game politicking of the strike zone, giving hitters a new advantage they have long been without: certainty.” Per Statcast data, major league hitters swung at 33 pitches outside the zone per game in 2019 (~80,000 total for the year). It’s no surprise hitters struggle with zone control because the umpires themselves don’t always have a clear conception of where the zone lies. 

Roughly a quarter of all called third strikes in 2019 were on pitches that landed outside the zone. Home plate umpires made an average of 14 incorrect calls per game in 2019, which tracks with this Boston University study that looked at umpire accuracy going back more than ten seasons. The fact is, umpire error is making a huge impact on the game on a daily basis. The batter/pitcher relationship is the essential, critical matchup of the game. When this relationship loses integrity, the game itself suffers from existential crises. The whole reason umpires exist is to keep that crisis at bay. Most of us, after all, watch the game to see the talent of the batters and pitchers involved – not the umpires. Like it or not, when an umpire fails to properly adjudicate – when he misses a call – it muddies the waters of the game’s foundational competition.

Or in baseball terms, when ahead in the count, batters reached base at a .477 OBP clip in 2019. When behind in the count, that number drops to .209 OBP. That’s the difference between an absolute superstar and a sub-replacement-level hitter. When a batter falls behind because the umpire gifted a strike to the pitcher, the whole at-bat changes. The nature of the competition changes.

Digging into the data made available through Statcast, it’s not that difficult to find those incorrect calls. Build a book of umpire accuracy metrics for each pitcher by year, and we can get some clarity on how electronic strike zones are going to affect pitchers. The first question is this: are human umpires gifting more strikes to a particular kind of pitcher? To fireballers or workhorses or control artists or power pitchers?

If you’re interesting in walking through the data science behind this question, feel free to check out a video walkthrough of the process here, but the most interesting takeaway was this: there were four differentiating attributes of those pitchers who tended to get extra strikes versus those who did not: velocity, spin, role, and handedness.

Umpires tend to gift more strikes to pitchers with lower velocity, lower spin, to starters more than relievers, and to righties more than lefties. This makes sense if we think in terms of umpire vision. Given the active nature of a strike call versus the passive nature of a ball call, even a moment of uncertainty may lead an umpire to letting a strike go by without making a call. It makes sense, then, that umps might be more liberal with strike calls when they can see the ball more clearly. 

The league has trended towards higher velocity, higher spin pitchers in part because those pitches are more difficult for the batter to pick up, both because of their speed, and because the higher spin rate generally leads to a higher effective speed. It makes sense, then, that umpires would have difficulty picking up these pitches as well. Umpires may also have an itchier trigger finger with starters, whom they’re more comfortable with because they see them for longer periods of time, and with right-handers, who at least anecdotally, have less movement on their ball than southpaws.

Let’s look at some examples. Jon Lester has been one of the most consistently umpire-aided pitchers in the league. He runs counter to type by being left-handed, but those who’ve spent time watching Cubs games the last few seasons will tell you, Lester complains from pitch one and doesn’t stop griping until the ball is forcibly removed from his hand. He’s a bully, no doubt, and he bullies his way to extra strikes whenever possible. In 2019, roughly 25% of Lester’s called strikes were on pitches that landed outside the zone (versus ~17% average). He also had a very low percentage of “Stolen Strikes.” Of all the pitches he threw in 2019 at which the batter did not swing, only 2.4% of them were balls that should have been called strikes. 

On the other side, we find one of baseball’s premier villains: Aroldis Chapman. Chapman fits the mold of a guy that umpires aren’t likely to help out. He’s 99th percentile in fastball velocity, 92nd percentile in fastball spin, he’s a lefty, and he only pitches for usually an inning at a time at the highest-leverage moments of the game. Of all the pitches he threw in 2019 when the batter did not swing, he was “gifted a strike” on just 2.4% of those pitches, while 5.4% of those were “Stolen Strikes.”

There are other factors of course, beyond the velocity, spin, role, and handedness of the pitcher. Catcher framing certainly has an impact, and individual umpires themselves will have their own conscious or subconscious biases. But as we look ahead to a world of robot umpires, it does seem that lower velocity starters – workhorses and control artists – are going to lose the little bit of leeway that umpires are giving them now, whereas closers and firemen, guys with amazing pure stuff like Chapman will be even more valuable because they’re going to start getting some calls that umpires aren’t giving him now.

The Yankees’ (Brief) History Of Contract Extensions

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Twenty-eight different contract extensions were signed between teams and players between February-April 2019, and the Yankees were one of the many clubs that joined in on this rush.  Aaron Hicks was a season away from free agency at the time, though the outfielder chose to forego the open market in favor of a contract that paid him $64MM in new money through the 2025 season.  Right-hander Luis Severino inked a four-year, $40MM deal that covered his four arbitration-eligible years as a Super Two player, and the deal also contains a $15MM club option for the 2023 season, which would have been Severino’s first free agent year.

Another extension came after the season, as the Yankees worked out an agreement with Aroldis Chapman that would see the closer decline his opt-out clause in favor of a three-year, $48MM extension that essentially added an extra year (and another $18MM) onto the final two seasons of Chapman’s previous contract.

Three extensions in less than a year is a pretty notable amount of business for any team on the long-term front.  In the Yankees’ case, however, it counts as an absolute flurry given how rarely the Bronx Bombers have engaged in such internal long-term deals.  New York’s three extensions in 2019 came on the heels of only six extensions in the previous 18 years.

The reason for this lack of extension action is simple — it was against team policy.  “I just don’t believe in contract extensions, and that’s throughout the organization, no matter who it is,” managing partner Hal Steinbrenner told the Associated Press and other reporters in 2010.  “Hopefully nobody takes that personally. It’s just business.”

Between the time Steinbrenner officially became the Yankees’ control person in November 2008 and the start of 2019, his anti-extension stance stayed almost completely intact, with two exceptions that somewhat mirrored the Chapman and Hicks situations.  C.C. Sabathia also had a contractual opt-out decision following the 2011 season, though he and the Yankees worked out a new deal that gave the southpaw five years and a guaranteed $122MM to overwrite the previous four years and $92MM remaining on his previous contract.  Prior to the 2014 season, Brett Gardner (like Hicks) was also just a year away from free agency before New York locked him up for a four-year, $52MM extension.

Beyond the Sabathia and Gardner contracts, however, that was it on the extension front.  As Steinbrenner noted, the “no matter who it is” edict even stretched to the likes of Mariano Rivera or Derek Jeter, who both reached the open market before eventually (and, in Jeter’s case, not without some contentious words) re-signing with New York.  Even general manager Brian Cashman’s last three contracts have only been signed after the GM’s previous deals had expired.

Why would the team take such a hard line?  In short, the Yankees always wanted as much flexibility as possible in deciding their future moves, since they had the financial resources to immediately pivot to a better option in free agency or the trade market if such an upgrade was available.  Whereas other teams pursued extensions as a way of locking up young talent into their free agent years or at least getting some cost certainty through arbitration years, such concerns simply weren’t on the Yankees’ radar given their free-spending ways.

Of course, the franchise has become somewhat more cost-conscious in recent years, which likely explains the Bombers’ openness towards extensions in 2019.  After 15 years of overages, the Yankees finally ducked under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold during the 2018 season, allowing them to reset their penalty clock for 2019 (when they surpassed the threshold again).  Though New York didn’t go to the extremes of other big-market clubs like the Cubs or Red Sox in limiting or eliminating their luxury tax payments, the Yankees saw value in getting under the tax line once, plus they had the additional bonus of being able to cut their tax bill while still remaining competitive since so many of the club’s young stars seemingly broke out at the same time.

With the CBT penalty reset, the Yankees had the freedom to explore a tactic like signing Severino through his arbitration years.  The deal was seen at the time as very canny, given that Severino seemed to be a burgeoning ace, and thus in line for an escalating arb price tag.  In Hicks’ case, he may have had extra motivation to sign an extension given how the restrained 2017-18 and 2018-19 free agent markets left a lot of players settling for below-market deals or having long waits on the open market.  Hicks could have preferred the security of just remaining in New York, and his price was apparently satisfactory enough for the Yankees to make the long-term commitment to a player they obviously wanted to retain.

The early returns on both deals, however, haven’t been good.  Injuries limited Hicks to only 59 games in 2019 and he underwent Tommy John surgery last October, putting him out of action until at least June (though he might not miss any game time at all, given the delayed start to the season).  The news was even worse for Severino, who tossed just 12 innings last season due to injuries and then underwent a Tommy John procedure of his own in late February.  The righty now won’t be back on the mound until early in the 2021 campaign.

It isn’t yet clear if the disastrous starts to both of these extensions may have once again made the team wary of such longer-term deals, or if Steinbrenner and the Yankees front office still consider the process to be sound — after all, there’s still plenty of time for Hicks and Severino to make good on their deals.  Since big-picture concerns likely inspired the club’s decision-making towards those extensions in the first place, it’s safe to assume that inevitable changes to the sport’s financial structure will also impact the Yankees’ future approach more so than a pair of Tommy John surgeries.

Both baseball and the world at large are gripped with the uncertainty of the coronavirus pandemic, plus there’s also the fact that the current Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and the players’ union is up in December 2021.  With these factors in mind, it isn’t a stretch to say that the way baseball does business could be vastly different two years from now, which could leave the Yankees and several other teams hesitant about committing any more long-term money until things can be figured out.

Working out an extension for, say, Aaron Judge seems to pale in comparison to such matters.  But, when trying to guess whether or not New York will (once the roster freeze is lifted) seek out multi-year deals for the likes of Judge, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, Miguel Andujar, or any number of other players, it’s worth noting that the Yankees generally don’t extend players very often, and it wouldn’t be a shock if they return to their old wait-and-see approach.

NL Notes: Cubs, Morrow, Nationals, Turner, D’Backs, Hazen, Bryant

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Cubs reliever Brandon Morrow is healthy, which has rarely been the case throughout his Cubs tenure. Morrow should be on schedule for the spring, though the Cubs are keeping open the possibility of bringing him along more slowly than the other pitchers in camp. A different schedule would be purely precautionary, however, per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter). Morrow arrived in Chicago as the heir apparent to Wade Davis, who had been the heir apparent to Aroldis Chapman before him. When healthy, Morrow has been nothing short of elite, but after just 35 appearances in 2018 followed by an entire season in absentia, Morrow enters 2020 in no better position than the many other arms the Cubs have collected on minor league deals.

  • The Nationals are entering another year of uncertainty in their lineup. Manager Dave Martinez is weighing a move for powerful leadoff man Trea Turner into the middle of the order, tweets Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. Turner certainly has enough oomph to man the middle of the order. A full season of the .298/.353/.497 line he put up last year would ably fill the 3-hole recently vacated by his bromance partner Anthony Rendon. Adam Eaton remains a viable top-of-the-order presence after putting up a .365 OBP mostly out of the 2-hole, who could presumably move up a slot into the leadoff vacancy. Putting Turner’s speed directly in front of the ever-patient and fear-inducing cleanup presence of Juan Soto might not be the most natural pairing, however. Martinez will have some big decisions to make, largely dependent upon who wins the third base job and what kind of jump Victor Robles can make at the plate.
  • In an interview with The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan, Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen says he doesn’t envision the team making a blockbuster deal like trading for Kris Bryant this far into the offseason. Major roster decisions have largely been made, and it’s more the time for fine-tuning. Hazen left open the possibility of adding a bullpen arm or another body for the bench, but a blockbuster is less likely. That said, the Diamondbacks never found the centerfielder they were seeking, which would push Ketel Marte back into the outfield and open starter’s minutes somewhere in the infield. The Diamondbacks have already taken more big swings this offseason than Hazen anticipated, so one more – even at this stage – can’t be entirely ruled out.

AL East Notes: Chapman, Yankees, Liu, Edwin

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Some items from around the AL East…

  • Negotiations between Aroldis Chapman and the Yankees about the closer’s contract extension apparently came down to the final moments before the deadline for Chapman to decide whether or not to exercise his opt-out clause, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.  Chapman was hoping to have two extra years added onto the remaining two years on his pre-existing contract, but ultimately settled for just one extra season ($18MM for the 2022 season).
  • The impact of Chapman’s new contract on the Yankees’ luxury tax situation is examined by Joel Sherman of the New York Post, who observes that the extension won’t lead to any savings due to the “true-up charge” associated with the specific breakdown of how Chapman’s salaries were paid out over the first three years of his deal, largely due to a signing bonus payout.  As a result, Chapman’s new tax number is $17.5MM over the next three years, which doesn’t help alleviate the crunch for a Yankees team that Sherman figures is already approaching the $208MM threshold for 2020 just with pre-existing roster talent.  The Yankees will face tax penalties for surpassing the second level ($226MM) of the tax threshold in 2019, and it remains to be seen how far over the $208MM threshold ownership will allow the front office to go in 2020.  As Sherman notes, ownership would presumably balk at surpassing the top penalty level of $248MM, which would impact the Yankees’ chances of adding a mega-salary (i.e. for a Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg) and retaining free agents like Didi Gregorius or Dellin Betances.
  • A brief scouting report on newly-signed Red Sox right-hander Chih-Jung Liu is provided by former big leaguer Chien-Ming Wang to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe, as Wang has worked with the 20-year-old prospect.  Liu “needs to improve his slider and splitter to have a good out pitch” and “needs to build up his arm strength and pitch count,” Wang said.  These aren’t unusual criticisms for any young pitcher, especially for a case like Liu, who mostly played shortstop in high school and only recently got back into pitching.  Liu is also “bright” and “seems to be able to adapt to [a] new environment quickly,” Wang said, and he also noted that Liu asked him how to throw a sinkerball, Wang’s signature pitch.  Abraham reports that the Phillies and Diamondbacks were among the other teams who had interest in Liu before the Red Sox signed him for $750K.
  • Now that Edwin Encarnacion is officially a free agent, could the slugger potentially return to the Blue Jays?  There is room on paper, as Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith notes that the Jays have a vacancy at first base/DH since Justin Smoak is also headed for free agency, and Encarnacion could likely be had on a fairly inexpensive one-year deal.  However, with the Blue Jays still in rebuild mode, Nicholson-Smith figures it probably makes more sense for the club to “find the next Encarnacion instead,” i.e. a player who can be an important contributor for several years.  Toronto GM Ross Atkins has also spoken of wanting a first baseman who can play multiple positions, while Encarnacion is limited to first base (and could best be suited for a DH role altogether).

Yankees To Extend Aroldis Chapman

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Reports indicate that the Yankees have reached an agreement to keep closer Aroldis Chapman in pinstripes through 2022. New York will add a third year valued at $18MM in addition to the two years and $30MM that remained on Chapman’s previous contract with the club, bringing its total commitment to the hurler to $48MM over the next three seasons, according to reporting from ESPN’s Jeff Passan (link).

Chapman had been facing a Saturday deadline on an opt-out decision regarding the remaining two seasons on the five-year contract he signed with the club prior to the 2017 season, but the addition of a third season has apparently persuaded him to forego open market opportunities. His original deal with New York represented the largest guarantee ($86MM) ever given to a free agent reliever, and this extension promises to bring Chapman’s six-year Yankees outlay to a whopping $104MM.

Our own Steve Adams predicted on Friday that a three-year deal would be the 31-year-old pitcher’s most likely free agency outcome if Chapman’s representatives at Magnus Sports had been unable to reach an extension accord with New York. That both club and agency were able to come to an agreement should be a boon to the Yankees bullpen, being that Chapman’s presence will allow fellow relievers Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, Tommy Kahnle, and Chad Green to remain in the roles they held in 2019. And that’s before accounting for the Cuban native’s personal performance.

In 2019, Chapman, though not exactly the radar gun-breaking flamethrower he once was, recorded superlative numbers by pretty much any measure. He posted 57 innings — his most since signing with New York — en route to a sparkling 2.21 ERA; his 13.4 K/9 rate and 0.47 HR/9 rate were also ready evidence of the lefthander’s late-inning dominance. Working in the tight confines of Yankee Stadium, Chapman recorded 37 saves–his seventh time in the last eight seasons eclipsing the 30-save plateau.

Had Chapman chosen to forego the remaining two years on his deal, he would have in all likelihood entered free agency with a $17.8MM qualifying offer attached to his name. Last offseason saw another great closer of the current era, Craig Kimbrel, remain on the open market well into the regular season after being attached to a QO, so it’s fair to wonder whether that spectacle encouraged Chapman to remain with the bird in hand. Regardless, tonight’s development marks a continued union between arguably the game’s best closer and a team that has in recent years come tantalizingly close to postseason paydirt.

With Chapman off the board, names like Will Harris, Will Smith, Daniel Hudson, and Dellin Betances likely represent the upper end of the 2019-2020 free agent relief class. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently took a look at some of this winter’s most interesting free agent bullpen arms.

Chapman Hopes For Extension With Yankees, Will Otherwise Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman is pursuing an extension but otherwise plans to utilize the opt-out clause in his five-year contract, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). A decision on that opt-out provision is due tomorrow, leaving his representatives at Magnus Sports with a small window to work out a new deal. (Although, presumably, the two sides have already been in contact well before today’s report.)

Chapman, 32 in February, has two years and $30MM remaining on the five-year, $86MM pact he inked prior to the 2017 season. In the event that an extension isn’t reached, the Yankees will surely issue him a $17.8MM qualifying offer, which he’ll reject in order to head into free agency. (That much is evident based on logic and common sense; if Chapman is to walk away from $30MM over the next two seasons, he’d certainly decline less than that on a one-year term even if it included a relatively small bump in terms of yearly salary.)

At 32, another five-year deal for Chapman won’t be there in free agency. Realistically, a three-year deal seems like the most plausible outcome whether it manifests with the Yankees tacking an extra year onto his current deal (as they did with CC Sabathia several years ago) or via an open-market agreement. Chapman’s $86MM guarantee is still a record among relief pitchers, but he’d have the opportunity to set another new record on the open market by taking aim at Wade Davis’ precedent-setting annual salary ($17.33MM). Anything north of $52MM over a three-year term — or even something like $36MM over a two-year term — would give Chapman the relief pitcher records in both total guarantee and AAV.

Chapman’s on-field performance in 2019 was arguably the best of any of his three full seasons under his current deal. He tossed 57 innings — his most since signing — and worked to a pristine 2.21 ERA with averages of 13.4 strikeouts, 4.0 walks and just 0.47 home runs allowed per nine innings pitched. That home-run rate is particularly impressive given his hitter-friendly home parks (and several others in the AL East) as well as the league-wide homer spike with this year’s superball. Chapman racked up 37 saves in 2019, marking his seventh 30-save season in the past eight years.

It’s true that Chapman doesn’t throw as hard as he used to. But while he’s no longer averaging 100.4 mph on his heater, this season’s 98.4 mph average still ranked as the sixth-highest among the 458 relievers who tossed at least 10 innings. In all, he’s given the Yankees 158 2/3 innings of 2.61 ERA ball with 91 saves, 14.0 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 over the first three years of the deal (including two All-Star nods). He’s added on another 16 1/3 innings of 1.65 ERA ball with a 29-to-7 K/BB ratio in the postseason, though this year’s final impression — a series-ending, walk-off homer to Jose Altuve — wasn’t a favorable note on which to end that otherwise strong run.

Some may point to Craig Kimbrel as evidence that Chapman should be wary of venturing into free agency as a reliever with a qualifying offer attached to his name, but Kimbrel should rather serve as a lesson in the importance of managing expectations. If Chapman goes to market seeking a record-setting guarantee over five or six years, as Kimbrel apparently did, then he’ll indeed have his share of troubles. If he’s seeking out a more palatable four- or three-year pact, he could have an easier time, as was the case with the aforementioned Davis two winters ago when he signed his own record deal in Colorado. Even Kimbrel himself ultimately landed a strong three-year deal worth a prorated $43MM when he ultimately did put pen to paper.

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