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Yankees Notes: Dominguez, Severino, Carpenter

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The Yankees were known to be interested in Luis Castillo before the trade deadline. Jon Heyman of the New York Post sheds some light on the team’s discussions with the Reds, reporting that New York put outfield prospect Jasson Dominguez on the table. Heyman reiterates that New York refused to make top shortstop prospect Anthony Volpe available, however, and it’s unclear whether they were amenable to giving up fellow infielder Oswald Peraza either.

Volpe and Peraza are the only two Yankees farmhands who appeared on Baseball America’s most recent ranking of the league’s top 100 prospects. Dominguez checks in fifth in the New York system, per BA. The highest-profile player in the 2019-20 international amateur class, the switch-hitting Dominguez has big power potential but is now seen by many evaluators as likely to eventually move to a corner outfield position. He’s impressed offensively during his first full season at an affiliate, however, hitting .265/.373/.440 with nine homers and 19 stolen bases over 324 plate appearances in Low-A before being bumped up to High-A last month.

Details on the Yankees conversations with the Reds are ultimately an historical footnote, as Cincinnati wound up shipping Castillo to the Mariners for a package headlined by infielders Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo (each of whom appeared among BA’s top 50 farmhands). The Yankees then pivoted to Oakland in their search for an impact starter, landing Frankie Montas for a prospect package headlined by Ken Waldichuk and JP Sears.

Some additional notes on the Yankees big league club:

  • Luis Severino has missed the past month after suffering a lat strain, but he’s making progress in his rehab. The righty threw off flat ground of a distance of 120 feet this afternoon, as Bryan Hoch of MLB.com was among those to relay (Twitter link). He’s scheduled for a bullpen session on Monday, his first mound work since landing on the injured list. Severino was transferred to the 60-day IL earlier this month (to his chagrin), but Hoch suggests the club anticipates he’ll make multiple starts in September. That indicates he’s on track to be reinstated around when first eligible during the second week of next month.
  • Infielder Matt Carpenter, meanwhile, went for a visit with a specialist after fracturing his left foot on a foul ball on Monday (relayed by Hoch and Marly Rivera of ESPN). He’ll go a couple weeks without weight-bearing and be reevaluated at some point next month. Further testing confirmed the preliminary diagnosis of a 6-8 week recovery timetable for Carpenter’s return to game action, giving him a chance to make it back for a postseason push. The 36-year-old mashed at a .305/.412/.727 clip through 47 games after signing with the Yankees in May, so it’d be a key boost if the club could welcome his left-handed bat back for the stretch run. Carpenter will be a free agent at year’s end, so a late-season comeback and productive showing in October would also serve as a nice boost to his market.

Latest On Juan Soto’s Trade Market

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Juan Soto’s presence on the trade market has, in many ways, held up activity in other areas. Teams like the Cardinals and Padres, generally viewed as two of Soto’s top suitors, are also involved in the market for starting pitching. But, both are surely wary of dealing prospects to acquire a starter (e.g. Oakland’s Frankie Montas) if those same players might eventually be used to pry Soto loose from Washington.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan takes a lengthy look at the logjam Soto has created, writing within that the Yankees are a “long shot at best” to make a play for Soto before the deadline and suggesting that the Rangers, for now, are not a prominent bidder. That meshes with recent reporting from the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, who wrote last night that there was “no traction” between the Yankees and Nationals regarding Soto, even though the Yankees reached out as recently as yesterday evening. Heyman adds that the Nationals aren’t as high on top prospect Anthony Volpe as the Yankees and many other clubs are, which is a complicating factor in talks.

The Padres and Cardinals are the most oft-suggested fits for Soto, and with good reason, as both are win-now clubs with deep farm systems who could offer the blend of top prospects and controllable big leaguers the Nationals seek. Passan suggests that the Dodgers are “lurking,” however, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic similarly wrote this morning that the Dodgers have maintained talks with the Nats and should not be ruled out as a potential landing spot. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale takes things a step further, tweeting that it’s actually the Dodgers — not the Cardinals or Padres — who have been making the most aggressive offers for Soto recently.

The Mariners, another regularly speculated fit for Soto, don’t appear likely to land him at this point. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto tells The Athletic’s Jim Bowden that while he checked in on Soto, he came away with the impression that there was not a realistic path to acquiring him (Twitter link). Presumably, that came prior to Seattle’s Friday acquisition of Luis Castillo — which cost the Mariners their top two prospects.

The Mets, too, have been speculatively listed as trade partners for the Nats. That’s due largely to the team’s huge payroll and aggressive past year under new owner Steve Cohen. However, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the Mets believed “relatively quickly in the process” that there’d be such a large market for Soto that Washington wouldn’t have to consider trading him to a division rival. That certainly looks to be the case, although if the Nats do covet the Mets’ best prospects, there’s at least a slim chance of something coming together; both Sherman and SNY’s Andy Martino report that the Mets would only move their very best prospects if it were to acquire Soto or (an even longer shot) Shohei Ohtani. Both reports suggest catcher Francisco Alvarez is off limits unless it’s for one of Soto or Ohtani. Sherman adds third baseman Brett Baty to that list, and Martino suggests third baseman Mark Vientos is viewed similarly.

Regardless of whether Soto specifically changes hands, the market will erupt sometime between now and tomorrow’s 6pm ET deadline. The ticking clock is going to eventually drive teams into activity, and given the lack of movement thus far, we could be in for one of the most active and chaotic 24- to 30-hour spans of deadline dealing we’ve ever seen.

Big Hype Prospects: Juan Soto Edition

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll take a peek at some players who could find themselves shipped to the Nationals in the next 12 days. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, seven teams are currently in the mix for Juan Soto, although a surprise or three are liable to check in on this once-in-a-decade opportunity.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Diego Cartaya, 20, C, LAD (A+)
(A): 163 PA, 9 HR, .260/.405/.550
(A+): 137 PA, 5 HR, .288/.423/.514

Seemingly everybody who goes to watch Cartaya comes away impressed by the precocious catcher. If there’s a flaw in his game, it’s that he’s already embraced an extreme approach as a hitter. His combination of 50 percent fly balls, 50 percent pulled contact, and near-30 percent strikeout rate mark him as a classic slugger. He’s on a 30-homer pace this season – a rarity both for players this young and for catching prospects. He even draws praise as a defender, especially for his arm.

Prior to the lost COVID year, Cartaya had a reputation for aggression. Since then, he’s averaged a 13 percent walk rate in 437 plate appearances. Unfortunately, the more discerning approach is also why his strikeout rate has spiked. There’s wiggle room for more adjustments related to his swing decisions.

The Nationals already have one former Dodger catching prospect in their lineup (Keibert Ruiz). Even so, Cartaya almost certainly would be included in a Soto trade. As a centerpiece, he might have less heft than others we discuss today. We’ve known for over a decade that a pitching prospect is considerably less valuable than an equally skilled positional prospect. That mostly comes down to attrition associated with pitching. Catchers lurk between pitchers and the other positions – various flavors of attrition can play spoiler to an otherwise great prospect.

Additional notable Dodgers prospects include Michael Busch, Andy Pages, Bobby Miller, and Ryan Pepiot.

Francisco Alvarez, 20, C, NYM (AAA)
(AA) 296 PA, 18 HR, .277/.368/.553
(AAA) 34 PA, .087/.324/.130

If Cartaya is precocious, then I’m not sure we have a word for Alvarez. He’s two months younger than Cartaya and outperformed the Dodger prospect while playing in Double-A. Although it hasn’t gone swimmingly (yet), signs point to improvement ahead. For one, his .125 BABIP and .043 ISO will normalize. Alvarez is arguably the top prospect in the minors.

While the Steve Cohen Mets have shown no qualms with expending resources, their farm system is thin. Moreover, acquiring Soto would ensure they surpass the fourth luxury tax tier. The 80 percent tax rate associated with payrolls over $290MM has already been dubbed the “Cohen Tax.” Many observers believe Patrick Corbin will need to be absorbed as well. Whether or not the Mets are willing to take on these extra expenditures, it’s unclear the Nationals would risk losing another elite outfielder to a division rival.

The Mets next-best prospects are Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Alex Ramirez. Mark Vientos could have modest appeal for his proximity to the Majors.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, (AA)
348 PA, 12 HR, 35 SB, .253/.351/.461

Volpe had a chilly start to his 2022 campaign. Since mid-May, he’s batting .303/.386/.541 with 9.0 percent walk and 14.8 percent strikeout rates. He’s been ready for promotion for weeks if not longer. That he remains in Double-A could reflect the Yankees willingness to trade him at the deadline. As the top true shortstop prospect, he’d go a long way towards landing Soto.

The Yankees know the appeal of generational talents to their fan base, but they also know the value of a good, homegrown shortstop. Volpe has all the makings of a future All-Star. The presence of Oswald Peraza – also a well-regarded shortstop prospect – means the Yankees can probably hang onto a middle infielder for their 2023 campaign. They can attempt to tempt the Nationals with the likes of Jasson Dominguez, Alexander Vargas, and a brace of Major League-adjacent pitchers like Clarke Schmidt, Luis Medina, Deivi Garcia, and Luis Gil among others.

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B, STL (AA)
329 PA, 8 HR, 15 SB, .304/.392/.486

Like Volpe, Walker has seemingly overstayed his welcome in Double-A and could be hanging out for trade reasons. The Cardinals have sufficient infield depth to consider Walker expendable. As we discussed in this column last week, his prodigious power is somewhat wasted on a grounder-oriented batted ball profile. That same approach has helped him to hit for a high average despite plenty of swing-and-miss.

St. Louis is stocked with a deep system of future contributors even if scouting reports aren’t always enthusiastic. Juan Yepez would match the Nationals desire for a Major League return, and he’s a somewhat awkward fit on the current Cardinals roster. Nolan Gorman, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, and Masyn Winn are just a few of the others who might appeal to Washington. They’ll need to offer a lot of quantity to secure a Soto trade.

Marco Luciano, 20, SS/3B, SFG (A+)
164 PA, 8 HR, .288/.360/.507

Luciano is currently sidelined with a back injury. Prior to landing on the shelf in early-June, he’d shown considerable improvement in his second exposure to High-A. Not only was he hitting for power again, he also rediscovered his previously adequate plate discipline. Luciano is expected to slide down the defensive spectrum, but there’s still a chance he might stick as a bat-first shortstop.

The Giants system features a few tantalizing talents, but they’re mostly in the low minors. In addition to Luciano and Luis Matos (see below), San Francisco could entice with Kyle Harrison, Patrick Bailey, or Heliot Ramos. Unlike some other suitors, they’d need to spend most of their best prospect capital to consummate a deal.

Five More

Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21) and Grayson Rodriguez, BAL (22): The Orioles might not be everyone’s favorites to land Soto, but their combination of top farm system, nonexistent future commitments, and pivot back to relevancemake them the perfect match – if they’re mentally prepared to make a bold move. Henderson and Rodriguez are now widely-regarded as Top 5 prospects. Baltimore has another dozen prospects who look like future big-league contributors. Henderson has run into some strikeout issues upon promotion to Triple-A. Rodriguez is currently recovering from a lat injury. He was on the cusp of making his Major League debut when he suffered the injury.

Luis Matos, SFG (20): Matos has struggled in High-A this season. His scouting grades point to a bright future. However, unlike many top prospects in this era, his prospect ranking is built upon projection on his frame and tools rather than on-field results. The Nationals have the wherewithal to be picky when dealing Soto. Matos’ inclusion will depend on what their scouts say.

Noelvi Marte, SEA (20): With Julio Rodriguez untouchable – even in a Soto trade – Marte is the Mariners next-best bullet. Since late-June, he’s batting an incredible .390/.478/.729 with as many walks as strikeouts. Seattle can prime the pump with Jarred Kelenic, George Kirby, Matt Brash, Harry Ford, and/or Emerson Hancock.

Robert Hassell, SDP (20): The biggest barrier for the Padres is their long-term finances. They certainly have the prospects to get a deal done including a number of MLB-ready players. Hassell looks like a plausible centerpiece, a player who could join the Majors in late-2023. He’s currently thriving in High-A. If the Padres prefer not to part with C.J. Abrams, Luis Campusano, or MacKenzie Gore – all of whom have big league experience and are well-regarded – then they could offer toolsy youngsters like James Wood and Jackson Merrill. Eguy Rosario and Esteury Ruiz should be appealing too.

Astros Among Teams With Interest In Luis Castillo

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Luis Castillo is among the league’s highest-profile trade candidates. The hard-throwing righty is having another excellent season, and with a year and a half of remaining club control, he’s a good bet to move from the 34-55 Reds to a contender in the next couple weeks.

Virtually every win-now team figures to inquire on Castillo, who’d upgrade any rotation. The Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Mariners, and Twins have all been linked to tied to the Cincinnati starter in recent weeks. Erik Boland of Newsday (Twitter link) and Sweeny Murti of WFAN (on Twitter) both report the Astros are also in the mix. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that teams like the Mets and Padres, who’d been linked to Castillo early in the process, are likelier to prioritize adding offensive help than an impact starter.

That said, even teams with enviable rotation depth figure to at least kick the tires on Castillo over the coming weeks. Houston’s interest is indicative of that, as they have arguably the best starting pitching outlook in the game. Astros starters rank second in the majors in ERA (3.15) and innings pitched (505), while they’re ninth in strikeout percentage (23.6%). That’s in spite of zero contributions from Lance McCullers Jr., perhaps the team’s top pitcher in 2021, as he’s rehabbed from a forearm issue.

Few teams would be able to comfortably withstand an injury to a pitcher of McCullers’ caliber, but Houston’s rotation has thrived nevertheless. All six of the Astros starters to eclipse 30 innings this season have an ERA of 4.08 or lower. Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez own sub-3.00 marks. Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia are in the mid-3.00s with strong strikeout totals, while Jake Odorizzi (3.38) and José Urquidy (4.08) have solid results despite lacking huge whiff totals.

With McCullers also expected to return at some point after the All-Star Break, the Astros certainly don’t need to add another starter. Castillo’s performance, though, is impressive enough they’ll join virtually every other contender in checking in with Reds’ general manager Nick Krall and his staff. Despite pitching in a hitter-friendly home ballpark, Castillo has a 3.49 ERA with an above-average 26.8% strikeout rate and an elite 55.2% grounder percentage over the past three and a half seasons. That includes a personal-best 2.77 ERA through 13 starts this year. Castillo’s swinging strike and ground-ball numbers are down a touch, but he’s still been better than league average in both regards.

Castillo has been especially excellent of late, pitching at peak form as the August 2 deadline draws nearer. He’s allowed one or fewer runs in each of his past four outings, striking out 33 against nine walks over his last 27 innings. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic examined Castillo’s strong recent run this morning, noting that the right-hander worked with the Cincinnati coaching staff to tweak the grip on his four-seam fastball this year.

In addition to his excellent results, the 29-year-old would be an eminently affordable pickup for acquiring teams. He’s playing this season on a $7.35MM salary, approximately $2.9MM of which will remain to be paid out after the deadline. He should be in line for a decent arbitration raise next winter, but even a 2023 salary in the $12-15MM range would be a strong bargain for a pitcher of his caliber.

Cincinnati is widely expected to field offers on both Castillo and rotation mate Tyler Mahle, who is also in his penultimate year of club control. Andy Martino of SNY reports that talks on at least the former have yet to get underway in much detail, suggesting those discussions figure to accelerate after the upcoming amateur draft. The Reds are sure to set a lofty asking price once discussions begin in earnest. Heyman wrote earlier this week that Cincinnati was looking for one of the Yankees’ top shortstop prospects, Anthony Volpe or Oswald Peraza, to get Castillo talks underway. Heyman suggested last night that New York remains firmly against parting with either player, even after losing Luis Severino to the injured list due to a lat strain.

Luis Castillo Drawing Widespread Interest; Reds Not Close To Any Deal

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July 12: The Reds aren’t close to any trades as of this morning, tweets Jim Bowden of The Athletic, who adds that “most” contending clubs have checked in on Cincinnati. That includes both the Cardinals and the Mariners, who have not been prominently linked to Castillo until this point (but who both make logical sense as a potential landing spot).

July 11: The Dodgers and Reds have had preliminary talks about Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Los Angeles joins a growing list of contenders known to be in contact with the Reds front office.

Castillo is one of the sport’s most obvious trade candidates, placing fourth on MLBTR’s Top 50 list last week. The right-hander is arbitration-eligible through 2023, but Cincinnati has no hope of competing this season. With the opportunity to market two possible postseason pushes to contenders, Castillo’s value around the league will never be higher than it is this summer. Teams like the Twins, Padres, Mets, Yankees, and Blue Jays have all been reported to have inquired in recent weeks. That’s presumably not an exhaustive list, as virtually every contender is likely to check in with Cincinnati general manager Nick Krall and his staff.

The 29-year-old Castillo carries a personal-best 2.92 ERA through his first 12 starts of the season. He’s been in peak form of late, tossing 20 innings of three-run ball with 25 strikeouts and five walks over his past three outings. Of course, Castillo has a multi-year track record as one of the sport’s better pitchers. He’s allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine innings in five of his six big league campaigns. One of the game’s hardest throwers, he typically blends a rare combination of swing-and-miss and ground-ball upside. This season’s respective 25.3% strikeout rate and 49.7% grounder percentage are both down a bit from his best levels, but each remains decidedly above-average.

Castillo missed the first month of this season with shoulder soreness. That set him off on a less than ideal start, but he’s rounded into form over the past few weeks. Although his fastball velocity was down a tick in May, he’s built arm strength as the season has worn on. According to Statcast, Castillo has averaged 97.7 MPH on his four-seam and 97.1 MPH on his sinker through his two starts this month. That’s in line with or better than last year’s respective 97.1 MPH and 97.3 MPH season averages, seemingly putting away any concerns clubs might’ve had stemming from his early-season injury.

Alongside teammate Tyler Mahle and A’s hurler Frankie Montas, Castillo is one of three high-octane controllable starters widely expected to be available at the deadline. Mahle is on the 15-day injured list with a shoulder strain, while Montas is dealing with some shoulder inflammation. Mahle has indicated he expects to be reinstated well in advance of the August 2 deadline, though, and the A’s remain hopeful that Montas can avoid the IL entirely and start this week (link via Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle). Even if all three pitchers are healthy, one could argue for Castillo to land the strongest return based on his track record and recent dominance.

The Reds are understandably setting their sights high in discussions. Jon Heyman of the New York reports that Cincinnati has sought one of Anthony Volpe or Oswald Peraza as a headliner in talks with the Yankees. Each player is a top shortstop prospect, with Volpe topping the Yankees’ farm rankings and placing among the 15 best farmhands leaguewide at each of Baseball America, FanGraphs, ESPN and the Athletic heading into the 2022 season. Peraza is generally regarded as the second or third-best player in the New York system; he landed second in the organization and 79th overall on BA’s recent Top 100 update.

It’s hard to envision New York parting with Volpe in any trade, but a player of Peraza’s caliber is a reasonable starting point for the Cincinnati front office. The Blue Jays sent the Twins two prospects generally regarded as top 100 talents (Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson) for a year and a half of José Berríos’ services last summer. Martin was a somewhat divisive player but just a season removed from being drafted fifth and ranked by most outlets as a top 50 overall talent at the time of the deal.

Peraza isn’t having a great season offensively in Triple-A (.242/.313/.411 through 275 plate appearances), but he’s young for the level, having just turned 22. He’s viewed as a strong defensive player, and the Yankees’ belief in he and Volpe was cited frequently as a reason for the club declining to aggressively pursue the big-ticket free agent shortstops available last winter.

Whether or not the Yankees are willing to entertain the possibility of putting Peraza in a Castillo trade, the lofty reported ask reflects the Reds’ leverage in dangling an arm of his caliber. They’ll certainly look towards the upper ranks of the farm systems of other clubs inquiring over the next few weeks. In all likelihood, talks with myriad teams will continue until the days immediately preceding the deadline and perhaps into August 2 itself.

Big Hype Prospects: Cruz, Abrams, Volpe, Veen, Wiemer

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This week, we investigate a mix of prospects at a wide range of levels.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Oneil Cruz, 23, SS, Pirates (MLB)
(AAA numbers) 247 PA, 9 HR, 11 SB, .232/.336/.422

When Tim Dierkes suggested I run this column, Cruz was his first example of the type of player he wanted to see covered. I’d previously written a fantasy column about “Peripheral Prospects” in this same format covering lesser-known guys like Ken Waldichuk and Brett Kerry. It’s only fitting to touch upon Cruz one more time. While his Triple-A numbers don’t jump off the page, he eventually settled in to the level. Since early-May, he’s batted .280/.374/.520 with an 11.4 percent walk rate and 17.7 percent strikeout rate. Reportedly, he was disappointed by his initial demotion, and it contributed to his April-long slump.

Since rejoining the Majors, Cruz is 4-for-18 with a stolen base. In four games, he’s already hit four balls over 100-mph, including two lasers over 110-mph. This is consistent with his track record. Cruz is built like a young Aaron Judge, and he hits the ball nearly as hard. His typical angle of contact is geared towards ground ball and line drive contact which could limit his home run production. When he does lift the ball, you can expect to see it soar. Anytime he’s in the lineup, Cruz is one of the most fascinating players in the league.

C.J. Abrams, 21, SS, Padres (MLB)
(AAA numbers) 151 PA, 7 HR, 10 SB, .314/.364/.507

Like Cruz, Abrams had a previous brief taste of the Majors and recently returned for four games. He’s 2-for-15 with one strikeout. Unlike Cruz, his exit velocities have been outright poor – just 81.8-mph. Abrams’ selection to the Padres roster followed on the heels of a particularly torrid multi-week stretch. He hit .398/.442/.519 over his last 95 Triple-A plate appearances. Included in the fun were four home runs, a 5.3 percent walk rate, and an 11.6 percent strikeout rate.

Such production indicated immediate readiness, especially for a prospect of Abrams’ caliber who scouts adore. If there’s a shortcoming in his profile, it’s that he doesn’t walk. It’s not necessarily an issue of discipline. He expands the zone in part because his speed has allowed him to still reach base in the minors. It’s possible he’ll learn to lay off marginal pitches in the Majors to improve his outcomes. If he does, he’ll flower into a high-quality leadoff hitter. There are still questions about his eventual defensive home – and not only because he has to share a field with Fernando Tatis Jr.

The worst-case scenario for Abrams is as an over-aggressive, contact-oriented slasher who plays all over the field. Between injuries and his incredible talent, we haven’t seen Abrams make many adjustments as a professional.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, Yankees (AA)
270 PA, 9 HR, 25 SB, .233/.326/.427

Over the offseason, I was virtually cornered by several Yankees fans who not-so-calmly explained that Volpe was the best prospect since Mike Trout. To the glee of everybody who loves to hate the Yankees, he performed particularly poorly until mid-May. Through May 17, he slashed a meager .170/.297/.330. Optimists cited four reasons he would rebound. First, the talent remained evident. He was working counts (13.8 percent walk rate). His .195 BABIP indicated poor luck. Lastly, he wasn’t the first prospect to wilt in chilly early-season weather.

As the calendar has heated up, so too has Volpe. He’s slashing .292/.356/.517 since May 18, a span of 132 plate appearances. He’s also putting more balls in play (6.8 percent walk rate, 15.9 percent strikeout rate) with a normal .319 BABIP. Volpe is on the shortlist for top prospect remaining in the minors. He’s also making a strong case for promotion to Triple-A – possibly by the end of this month.

Zac Veen, 20, OF, Rockies (A+)
258 PA, 8 HR, 25 SB, .259/.368/.440

The Rockies don’t exactly have an illustrious reputation with prospects. It’s nice to see Veen continue to perform to his draft pedigree. Scouting reports uniformly express concern about his hit tool playing against elite competition. While he possesses considerable raw power, his swing has qualities that some might describe as grooved. Such hitters can still succeed in the Majors. Billy Wagner once ridiculed Pat Burrell’s one-path swing (after allowing a home run). Joc Pederson might be a more relevant groovy comparison as a left-handed hitter with a pretty, loopy swing.

In any event, Veen is on track to spend some time in Double-A this season and debut either late in 2023 or early 2024. He works counts (14.3 percent walk rate) though he is also whiff prone (23.6 percent strikeout rate, 14.3 percent swinging-strike rate). While he’s 25-for-26 on the basepaths this season, it’s not clear if Veen will continue to run as he moves up the organizational ladder.

Joey Wiemer, 23, OF, Brewers (AA)
267 PA, 15 HR, 20 SB, .272/.348/.531

A divisive prospect, Wiemer is gaining steam as one of those guys who might succeed – perhaps even thrive – despite glaring flaws. He changed his mechanics heading into 2021 and unlocked massive in-game power. He launched 27 home runs in 472 plate appearances last season before tearing through the Arizona Fall League – one home run and a .467/.568/.667 triple-slash in 30 plate appearances.

There’s question if the hit tool will play in the Majors, but the power is evident enough to easily support a low-average approach. A worst-case scenario might look something like Adolis Garcia with plate discipline. Or Adam Duvall with discipline and an eagerness to run. He sells out for pull-side, fly-ball contact. He’s posted high BABIPs at every level, but this is a hitting profile that usually yields low BABIPs due to a cacophony of pulled grounders and easy fly outs. We should see him tested in Triple-A before long. Milwaukee might even need his help in the Majors late in the season if they don’t add outfield depth at the trade deadline.

Having watched him play several games, the energy he gives off evokes Bryce Harper.

Five More

Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (21): Last week’s lead BHP (that’s Big Hype Prospect), I noted Henderson would soon jump from around the 50th prospect to somewhere in the Top 10 as listmakers prepare their midseason updates. Since then, Baseball Prospectus’ Jarrett Seidler indicated Henderson might be the top prospect left in the minors. A highly-placed source at another major industry outlet confirmed Henderson is on a shortlist of about five players for their top prospect. As I understand it, this excludes all prospect-eligible players currently in the Majors like Michael Harris, Oneil Cruz, and C.J. Abrams.

Eury Perez, Marlins (19): Currently shredding Double-A hitters, Perez is perhaps the most-precocious pitching prospect since Julio Urias. While Urias’ development was eventually delayed by injuries, Perez remains both healthy and effective. Most of what I would say about Perez was gleaned from the Marlins system update posted to FanGraphs earlier today. So, I’ll let you read what Eric Longenhagen has to say directly.

Jeter Downs, Red Sox (23): Downs made his debut recently, struck out three times in four plate appearances, and was promptly optioned back to Triple-A. Once a fairly well-regarded prospect, he’s fallen off the map since joining the Red Sox in the Mookie Betts trade. He still possesses tantalizing power and speed along with decent plate discipline. Unfortunately, there’s a ton of swing-and-miss in the profile; the kind that’s readily exploitable by seasoned pitchers. The best-case scenario these days is a sort of Dylan Moore-like outcome.

Brett Baty, Mets (22): Baty was, for me, the most visibly impressive prospect in the Arizona Fall League. Like Volpe, he had a chilly start to his Double-A campaign – his second visit to the level. He currently has a 14-game hitting over which he’s tamed his strikeout rate and pulled his season-long batting line up to an above-average .282/.372/.450 performance. Like the most of the other Double-A bats we’ve profiled today, he’s seemingly on the cusp of a promotion.

Noelvi Marte, Mariners (20): Two weeks ago, I noted some in the scouting biz had indicated Marte’s early-career dominance might be linked to physical traits that won’t necessarily scale as he advances to higher levels. In plain English, the boy got big young. Last week, I issued something of a retraction because I’d misplaced my source. Since then, I rediscovered the initial note, and it comes from a highly reputable source with access to dozens of scouts. All of this is to say that Marte doesn’t seem to be the second-coming if you buy into this early-development narrative. Not everybody does! This has been the most contentious take to appear in BHP. I look forward to fomenting more discussion about Marte. For what it’s worth, his June-long slump has continued. He hit .214/.241/.250 over the last week and is at .191/.257/.324 for the month.

Yankees Pessimistic On Chances Of Signing Freddie Freeman

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The Yankees are pessimistic on free agent first baseman Freddie Freeman, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.  The Yankees have also thus far said no to an ask of top prospect Anthony Volpe plus more for Oakland first baseman Matt Olson, Heyman explains.  As such, a reunion with free agent Anthony Rizzo is suggested to be “the most realistic” first base addition for the Yankees.

Three days ago, Heyman wrote that the Dodgers and Braves are the most likely landing spots for Freeman, who reportedly has sought a six-year deal.  The Yankees have since revamped the left side of the infield, shipping out Gio Urshela and adding Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the Twins.  The Yanks still have Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu, and Gleyber Torres on the roster, so further adjustments may be coming.

Volpe, ranked by Baseball America as the tenth best prospect in the game, isn’t necessarily an unreasonable request by the A’s.  Recent precedent for trading a five-WAR type player in the offseason with two years of control is rare, but the Marlins were able to land Sixto Sanchez and others when shopping J.T. Realmuto three years ago.  Other clubs known to be in the mix for Olson include the Guardians, Rangers, Padres, and naturally the Braves if they lose Freeman.

Rizzo posted a 113 wRC+ for the Yankees in 200 plate appearances after coming over from the Cubs at the trade deadline.

Braves, Rangers, Yankees Interested In Matt Olson

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3:45pm: The Braves have also been in contact about Olson, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets.  Atlanta’s interest in Olson also dates back to before the lockout, as the World Series champs were exploring a potential fallback plan for first base if Freddie Freeman signed elsewhere.

9:09am: The Yankees considered the Athletics’ asking price prior to the lockout far too high, tweets SNY’s Andy Martino, who adds that the Yanks made clear they would not include top shortstop prospect Anthony Volpe in a potential deal.

7:45am: The lockout is over, and in the coming days, the dam will break on a historic flood of transactions. Athletics first baseman Matt Olson headlines a deep class of trade targets and serves as the focal point of a prospective Athletics fire sale, which GM David Forst alluded to back in November when acknowledging that the team would have to listen to trade offers on the majority of its roster this winter. It’s already known that the Rangers and Yankees are among the teams with interest in Olson, but their efforts to acquire him can now resume in earnest.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports that the Rangers planned to reach out to the A’s shortly after the lockout lifted to rekindle talks. Texas, however, would need to be confident in its ability to sign Olson to a contract extension before making a deal, per Grant. That’s sensible, as even after spending a half-billion dollars to sign Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, the Rangers are still a ways from contending. Olson is only controlled another two seasons, and if a playoff run in 2022 isn’t a legitimate possibility, then the prospect of really only having Olson for one year of earnest contention would make the sky-high prospect price perhaps unpalatable.

As for the Yankees, Newsday’s Erik Boland tweets that Olson is their preferred option for an upgrade at first base. The Yanks currently have Luke Voit (a trade candidate himself) and DJ LeMahieu as in-house options, but Voit is coming off an injury-marred season and doesn’t have nearly the same defensive prowess as Olson. LeMahieu is looking for a rebound at the plate himself and is better deployed as a second baseman or third baseman, where his glove carries more value. As we explored during the lockout, there are plenty of options for the Yankees, who have also been rumored to have varying degrees of interest in free agents Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo.

With regard to the Rangers, it shouldn’t be assumed that they’ll be in on Freeman or Rizzo if they miss out on Olson. Grant characterizes Olson and lefty Clayton Kershaw as something of specialty targets for the Rangers, suggesting that if they’re not successful in acquiring one or both players, there may only be an additional $10-15MM in total spending for Texas this winter. Absent a deal for Olson, the Rangers would likely turn first base back over to Nathaniel Lowe, who had a solid year at the plate in 2021 (.264/.357/.415, 18 homers).

Texas and New York will be just two of a wide swath of teams interested in prying Olson away from Oakland. The Braves are known to have some interest as well but would probably only make a strike to acquire Olson if they know for certain that Freeman is headed elsewhere. Freeman, the 2020 NL MVP, has been linked to the Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays and even the Rays, who made him an offer before the lockout. The markets of the two star first basemen are inextricably linked, and with Freeman expected to act quickly in making a decision post-lockout, the market for Olson could soon gain some clarity.

While the A’s will be listening on more than just Olson — Matt Chapman, Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Ramon Laureano and Lou Trivino could also be marketed — there’s little denying that Olson is the headliner of their options and, arguably, of the entire trade market. The 2021 All-Star and two-time Gold Glover belted a career-high 39 home runs last year while posting the best all-around production of his Major League tenure. Olson hit .271/.371/.540 and maintained a huge 13.1% walk rate while simultaneously cutting his once-problematic strikeout rate from 31.4% in 2020 all the way down to 16.8%. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12MM this coming season.

Latest On Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien

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The deadline for players issued qualifying offers to decide on whether or not to accept has now passed, with Brandon Belt of the Giants being the only one out of the group of 14 to accept and return to his previous team. That means the 13 players who turned down the $18.4MM offer are now attached to draft pick forfeiture, including Carlos Correa. Of course, a player of Correa’s skill level won’t see his market greatly affected by a detail like that. In fact, MLBTR recently placed the star shortstop at the top of this year’s list of free agents and projected that he would land a contract of $320MM over ten years, despite the qualifying offer.

Another thing that apparently won’t stand in his way is any lingering resentment out of the Yankee organization in regard to the 2017 Astros sign-stealing scandal. It has been speculated by some people that the Yankees may not want to make a high profile acquisition of Correa, given he was a member of that now-infamous team, which defeated the Yankees in the ALCS before going on to beat the Dodgers in the World Series. But the Yankees decision makers have made comments that seem to suggest it won’t be an issue for them.

When asked if the scandal would play a role in how the team views Correa, Boone said “No,” per Dan Martin of the New York Post, but did acknowledge that the players would have to feel the same way. “Anytime we’re involved in a free agent that’s of large significance and will attract a lot of years and dollars, we’re all gonna feel really good about it.” The article also relays a statement general manager Brian Cashman made last week, saying, “Things like [fan or player sentiment are] not part of that process.”

Hal Steinbrenner evidently feels similar, as Jeff Passan of ESPN relays a quote from the team’s managing partner. “I think most people have moved on from that,” he said. “I mean, I think it’s only healthy to move on from things like that instead of stewing on it year after year. But, you know, people have the opinion that they want to have about that particular player. But, in general, we’re going to look at every single option. It’s the same thing we do every year.”

That’s surely good news for Correa, as he and his representatives will want as many teams in the bidding as possible, especially historically big spenders such as the Yankees. The club is certainly a fit for a shortstop, since moving Gleyber Torres to second base in September. However, they may opt not to make a long commitment to Correa, or any of the other highly-touted free agent shortstops, on account of prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe. “No question that factors in because we do feel in Peraza and Volpe we do have two long-time impact big-league players,’’ said Boone. “We’re excited about those players and believe they are real. That factors into any decisions the organization and [Cashman] make.”

Volpe is generally regarded above Peraza by prospect evaluators, as he is ranked the 18th prospect in all of baseball by FanGraphs, 22nd by Baseball America and 15th by MLB Pipeline, whereas Pereza comes in 48th for FanGraphs and 58th for both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. However, Volpe has only climbed as far as High-A in the Yankees’ system, meaning he’s unlikely to be an option for the big league club in the short term. Peraza, on the other hand, played most of 2021 at Double-A and finished the season with eight games at Triple-A, making it at least feasible that the club decides to forego a big expenditure at the position, although it’s also possible that’s just posturing for negotiating purposes.

Elsewhere around the league, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times doesn’t see the Mariners as a fit for Correa, based on the contract length. He reports that it’s believed Correa is trying to get within range of Francisco Lindor’s $341MM ten-year extension or “at least an 8- to 9-year deal with an average of $30 million per season and an opt-out clause.” Divish opines that Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto may not want to sign a contract of quite that length, based on his personal experiences trying to work around contracts like that, citing the Albert Pujols contract from Dipoto’s time in Anaheim as well as the Robinson Cano contract that was already on the books when he came to Seattle.

Marcus Semien, however, could be a better fit for the Mariners. He’s almost exactly four years older than Correa – 31 and 27, respectively – meaning he won’t be able to demand a contract of quite the same length. MLBTR predicted he could garner a contract of $138MM over six years, an average annual value of $23MM. But Divish has a different framing on the situation, saying, “The thinking is that the Mariners might have to offer him a five-year, $140-$150 million contract to keep him from going to San Francisco or New York on a four-year deal.”

$150MM over five years would be $30MM per season and make Semien one of the highest-paid players in the game by average annual value, which would be an incredible feat considering that he had to settle for a one-year, $18MM contract with the Blue Jays when he was a free agent a year ago. Like Correa, he also turned down a qualifying offer this week and will now be tied to draft pick forfeiture.

Yankees Attempted To Acquire Andrelton Simmons At Trade Deadline

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Upon first glance, it would be natural to expect the Yankees to be active in exploring this winter’s deep class of free agent shortstops. Once they bit the bullet and officially moved Gleyber Torres off shortstop, their need at the position became explicit. Prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza have impressed enough, however, that the Yanks could choose a short-term bridge option as they await further development for their youngsters, suggests Andy Martino of SNY.tv.

Andrelton Simmons might fit the bill as a short-term option. The Yankees tried to acquire Simmons at the trade deadline, Martino notes, and they could be again as a fill-in with defensive upside that might complement Torres’ skill-set up the middle. Yankee fans might dream a little bigger, considering Simmons’ .223/.283/.274 line across 451 plate appearances with the Twins.

Martino also suggests Marcus Semien as a potential short-term option, given his now-proven ability to play second base, should they want to make room for Volpe or Peraza when they’re ready. There figures to be quite a bit more competition for Semien’s services after another MVP-caliber year. The Yankees, of course, have the means to compete with anyone, and they are one of a choice few teams with a clear need at shortstop.

In terms of their potential competition, the Tigers could upgrade shortstop, making Niko Goodrum a super-utility player as they look to turn the page on their rebuild. The Nationals can do the same with Alcides Escobar, and they have some money to spend should they want to an immediate replacement for Trea Turner. The Orioles don’t have a clear long-term solution at short, but they might not be ready to spend significantly in free agency.

There are plenty of other teams that could keep a star shortstop from simply falling in the Yankees’ lap. The Blue Jays will need to replace Semien if they don’t bring him back. The Angels and A’s could both stand to upgrade. Thinking outside the box a little, the Phillies could push for a shortstop, given Didi Gregorius’ down year and their clear desire to compete. There might even be more teams looking for a short-term option like Simmons than there are clubs with surefire intentions to pursue the Correa/Seager/Story/Baez/Semien/Taylor class of free agent. Regardless, the Yankees figure to be players somewhere in the market this winter.

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