Anthony Santander

Anthony Santander Reportedly Seeking Five-Year Deal

By Steve Adams | December 13, 2024 at 3:32pm CDT

Free agent slugger Anthony Santander is one of the top power bats on the market this winter and has drawn interest from a wide array of suitors, including the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Santander is also of interest to the Yankees, now that Juan Soto is in Queens, and adds that the longtime Orioles slugger is seeking a five-year contract in free agency.

The switch-hitting Santander is coming off a career year in which he belted a personal-best 44 home runs. He’s heading into his age-30 season and doing so on the heels of a .235/.308/.506 batting line (129 wRC+). Santander doesn’t hit for much average and typically carries a pedestrian (at best) walk rate, but he’s been a consistent source of power for the O’s in recent seasons. Dating back to 2020, the former Rule 5 pick is a .245/.312/.476 hitter with 134 home runs, a 7.8% walk rate and a 20.6% strikeout rate. This past season’s 8.7% walk rate was the best of Santander’s career, while his 19.4% strikeout rate was his second-lowest in a full 162-game season.

Defensively, Santander hasn’t generated particularly strong reviews in recent seasons, but his work in 2024 drew harsher grades than usual. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at -7, while Statcast’s Outs Above Average was at -2. Santander’s average sprint speed, per Statcast, sat in just the 18th percentile of big league players this past season (26.0 ft/sec). His raw arm strength was better than average, but Statcast still pegged his throwing value as well below average, likely suggesting some inaccurate and/or ill-advised throws.

Historically speaking, there’s some precedent for this skill set — defensively limited, corner-only slugger — still landing a five-year pact. Nick Castellanos comes to mind as the most recent example, having inked a five-year, $100MM deal with the Phillies just three winters ago. That same offseason saw Kyle Schwarber sign for four years and $79MM with the Phils. Prior to that, J.D. Martinez landed a five-year, $110MM deal with the Red Sox to serve as a full-time DH.

Each of Castellanos (140 wRC+), Schwarber (145) and especially Martinez (170) were coming off superior offensive seasons in free agency, however. Of the three, only Castellanos received and rejected a qualifying offer. Neither Schwarber nor Martinez were eligible for qualifying offers when they reached free agency, as both were traded during their respective walk years — Martinez from Detroit to Arizona, and Schwarber from Washington to Boston.

All of those reasons factored into MLBTR’s decision to “only” predict a four-year deal worth $20MM per season for Santander at the outset of free agency. Of course, in the six weeks since our Top 50 Free Agent Rankings were published, the market has proven to be the most aggressive in recent memory. While the position player market hasn’t yet to fully take shape beyond Juan Soto’s expectation-shattering $765MM contract, it’s been a bull market for starting pitching. Whether that will carry over to the offensive side of the market remains unclear, but Santander appears well positioned to cash in.

The Yankees, who were spurned by Soto, have already spent a stunning $218MM on Max Fried and just earlier today acquired Devin Williams from the Brewers. They still have a hole in right field, however, and while Santander wouldn’t make up for all of the lost production from Soto, “Tony Taters” would offer comparable home run power (with lower averages and dramatically lower on-base skills). Similarly, the Blue Jays have been trying to make a splash to upgrade their lineup but came up empty in their Soto bid. The Red Sox don’t need another corner bat at the moment, but if they deal from their stock of outfielders to acquire additional starting pitching, that calculus could change. Other teams seeking middle-of-the-order bats include the Nationals, Tigers and Dodgers, among others.

Santander’s market is in many ways linked to that of Teoscar Hernandez, a similarly powered-up bat with defensive questions and a rejected qualifying offer hanging over his head. Hernandez is two years older and thus seems likely to sign a shorter deal, but he could still land three or perhaps even four years if the market is strong enough.

Red Sox Interested In Anthony Santander

By Darragh McDonald | December 9, 2024 at 11:50am CDT

The Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox have strong interest in free agent outfielder Anthony Santander, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (X link). The Jays and Yankees have been connected to Santander in previous rumors.

The fit is logical as all three clubs just came up short in their pursuit of Juan Soto. This winter’s free agent outfield market featured Soto at the top, clearly on a tier by himself, well above the rest. The level below featured a cluster of guys including Santander, Teoscar Hernández, Jurickson Profar, Tyler O’Neill, Michael Conforto and others. O’Neill and Conforto are also off the board now, in addition to Soto, so it’s natural that these clubs would pivot to the guys still available.

Santander, 30, doesn’t have Soto’s youth or plate discipline but there’s no doubting the power. He has hit at least 28 home runs in each of the past three seasons, including 44 in the most recent campaign, leading to 105 overall for the 2022-24 seasons. His 8.5% walk rate in that time was right around league average, with his 20.5% strikeout rate slightly better than par. His .244/.317/.478 batting line for that stretch led to a 124 wRC+, indicating he was 24% better than league average.

Given that healthy production, it’s unsurprising that he is generating plenty of interest. What also works in his favor is that he is a switch-hitter without strong platoon splits. As a righty against lefties, he hit .239/.309/.513 in 2024 for a 132 wRC+. For the inverse split, he hit .225/.306/.488 for a 123 wRC+. For his career, he has a 111 wRC+ against lefties and 116 against righties.

That balanced attack means he should be able to fit into the plans of any club with an outfield need, or perhaps an opening at designated hitter. His outfield defense has been subpar in his career, with grades of -3 Defensive Runs Saved and -13 Outs Above Average. He has gotten brief looks at first base recently, with 72 innings at that spot in 2023 and one more in 2024.

Despite the defensive concerns, Santander’s power bat is one of the best available. Perhaps some club would be willing to live with the subpar defense, or maybe try to slot Santander in at first base or designated hitter down the road. At the start of the winter, MLBTR predicted Santander could earn a guarantee of $80MM over four years.

For the Sox, they would likely be looking at Santander as an outfielder. Their corner infield and designated hitter mix is already crowded, with Rafael Devers at third, Triston Casas at first and Masataka Yoshida a primary option for designated hitter. There have been some rumors that the Sox would like to sign a third baseman and move Devers over to the other side of the diamond, which would likely require Casas or Yoshida to be moved.

In the outfield, the Sox have some good options but they could fit Santander into the mix. Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu project to be in two spots, but both are left-handed hitters with notable platoon splits. The lineup is already fairly left-leaning as Devers, Casas and Yoshida all hit from that side as well. The right-handed Rob Refsnyder can help out a bit but having Santander as an everyday option would help stabilize the whole group.

Ceddanne Rafaela could be involved in the outfield group as well but he’s a glove-first option who can also play the infield. Roman Anthony is one of the top prospects in the sport but he has not yet turned 21 years old and only has 35 games of Triple-A experience thus far. He is also a left-handed hitter, so he’ll exacerbate the club’s slant in that direction even if he earns his way into the big league plans.

The Sox have been looking to be aggressive this winter with the rotation being a primary focus but adding Santander or another big bat to the lineup would obviously help as well. They are reportedly even willing to pay the luxury tax under the right circumstances. RosterResource currently projects the club’s tax number at $181MM, which is $60MM below next year’s base threshold of $241MM. That should give them enough wiggle room to sign Santander or another outfielder as well as a notable starting pitcher, if they so choose. The Sox have been connected to various rotation options, including Corbin Burnes and Max Fried.

The Jays and Yankees have been connected to just about every big-name free agent, though both clubs have been focused on Soto until now. The coming days should see them pivot and gauge the market on guys like Fried, Burnes, Santander, Hernández, Alex Bregman and others, as those guys have each been connected to both the Yankees and Jays in rumors this offseason.

The loss of Soto obviously leaves a huge hole in the Yankee outfield, so they will surely be considering various options to bolster the group alongside Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham and Jasson Domínguez. That could include the aforementioned free agents but the Yanks have reportedly contacted the Cubs about a Cody Bellinger trade.

The Jays have George Springer and Daulton Varsho as their two most established outfielders, though Varsho is recovering from shoulder surgery and might not be ready for Opening Day. They have Nathan Lukes, Joey Loperfido, Jonatan Clase and other guys on the roster but those guys are all fairly limited in terms of their major league experience.

Santander rejected a qualifying offer from the Orioles at season’s end, so that club will receive draft pick compensation if he ultimately signs elsewhere. That feels fairly inevitable now that they have an agreement with O’Neill, effectively replacing Santander in the club’s outfield mix. If Santander signs a contract worth more than $50MM, the O’s will get a pick after the first round of the upcoming draft. The signing club will also be subject to penalties, depending on whether they are revenue sharing recipients or paid the competitive balance tax in 2024.

Latest On Teoscar Hernandez’s Market

By Mark Polishuk | December 8, 2024 at 2:17pm CDT

2:17PM: The Blue Jays also have interest in Hernandez but Anthony Santander appears to be Toronto’s chief backup target if Soto isn’t signed, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (X link).

1:44PM: The Dodgers and Red Sox were previously linked to Teoscar Hernandez’s market earlier this offseason, and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports that the Yankees are also looking at the free agent slugger. The three suitors all have “serious interest” in Hernandez’s services, with one noteworthy caveat — all three clubs are in the running to land Juan Soto, so Hernandez is viewed as the natural backup plan for all parties if Soto can’t be signed.

The Mets and Blue Jays are the two other teams known to still be pursuing Soto. At the moment, all five teams seem to be still be under consideration even if the Mets and Yankees have reportedly pushed the bidding up into the range of $710-$730MM. Los Angeles is thought to be the least aggressive of Soto’s five suitors and perhaps seems more likely to break away from the pack to pivot towards Hernandez or another option, but Cotillo figures Hernandez won’t make his own decision until after Soto signs.

Hernandez has openly said that returning to the Dodgers is “the priority” of his offseason, and “I’m going to do everything in my power to come back….It feels great to be part of this.” After a down year with the Mariners in 2023, Hernandez rebounded in the best possible way by winning a World Series and hitting .272/.339/.501 with 33 home runs over 652 plate appearances with L.A. last season. Hernandez inked a one-year, $23.5MM contract last winter and now looks poised to land a much heftier multi-year deal this time around.

As sources tell Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe (X link), Hernandez’s preference is still to remain with Los Angeles, though the Red Sox have a solid case in their own right for the slugger’s services. The Sox made a push for Hernandez last year in offering him a two-year, $28MM deal that Hernandez turned down in order to take the greater flexibility of the Dodgers’ one-year offer, plus L.A. was the more clear-cut contender heading into 2024. Hernandez “has long been intrigued by the idea of playing at Fenway Park and he’s a fan of Alex Cora,” Abraham writes, so with a World Series ring now in tow, Hernandez could now explore a move to Boston and perhaps a big role in a future Red Sox championship team.

The Yankees shouldn’t be overlooked as contenders, as Hernandez has also enjoyed a lot of success at Yankee Stadium over the years. New York might have the most incentive of all these teams to bolster the lineup if Soto departs, even if adding a big bat in the infield is also a priority since Gleyber Torres and Anthony Rizzo are free agents and unlikely to return.

Rejecting the Dodgers’ qualifying offer probably won’t have much impact on Hernandez’s market, though the Yankees and Red Sox would face a differing penalty level for signing the outfielder (or any player who rejected a QO). Because New York was a luxury tax payor in 2024, signing Hernandez would cost the Yankees $1MM in international bonus pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft. Boston would have to give up $500K of int’l pool funds and their second-highest 2025 draft pick. Los Angeles, of course, wouldn’t have to give up anything to sign Hernandez, as he is one of the Dodgers’ own free agents.

Blue Jays Interested In Anthony Santander, Corbin Burnes

By Darragh McDonald | November 25, 2024 at 1:57pm CDT

The Blue Jays are interested free agent outfielder Anthony Santander, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Nightengale also mentions that the club is pursuing top pitchers like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried. The club has previously been connected to top free agent starters such as Fried and Blake Snell in recent weeks, so Burnes being on the list as well is aligned with those interests.

The connection with Santander is a sensible one. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco predicted the Jays to sign Santander when our Top 50 Free Agents list came out earlier this month. The Jays are a sensible fit for an outfielder and a potent bat, two boxes that would be checked by Santander.

Right now, the Jays have George Springer and Daulton Varsho as the two established big leaguers in their outfield. Varsho underwent shoulder surgery in September and it’s possible that he’ll miss the opening of the 2025 season. Springer is now 35 years old and has seen his wRC+ decline for five straight years now. He had a 155 wRC+ in 2019 but that number has gone to 143, 140, 133, 104 and 95 in recent years.

In addition to those two, the Jays have plenty of other theoretical options to take playing time on the turf. Nathan Lukes, Joey Loperfido, Jonatan Clase, Davis Schneider, Addison Barger and Steward Berroa are all outfield options on the 40-man roster, but there’s not much certainty there. Schneider is the only one with more than 81 big league games on his track record and he’s coming off a frustrating season. In short, there’s plenty of room for the Jays to make an external addition.

More broadly, some home run pop would be welcome in the lineup. The Jays were middle of the pack in terms of wRC+ and on-base percentage in 2024 but were 26th in the majors in terms of home runs, ahead of just the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox. Only six guys on the club got to double digits with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. the only Blue Jay to get to 20 dingers on the year.

Santander can certainly provide that power, having just hit 44 home runs this past year. With 105 homers over the past three seasons, he’s sixth in the majors for that time frame behind star sluggers Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso and Matt Olson. The Jays have a bunch of key contributors who hit from the right side, such as Guerrero, Springer, Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk, so Santander’s switch-hitting ability likely adds to the appeal. He’s not a great defender but he’s slashed .244/.317/.478 over the past three years for a 124 wRC+ and the Jays don’t have a full-time designated hitter, which could allow them to limit the downside of his glovework.

It seems fair to conclude that Santander would be a fallback plan in the event the Jays don’t succeed in landing Juan Soto. The Jays are one of the clubs still plausibly in the mix for Soto, with offers expected to come in this week.

Soto ticks a lot of the same boxes as Santander, as he’s a lefty-swinging outfielder with power, but he’s the more attractive free agent for a few reasons. Soto is far younger, as he is now 26 while Santander is 30. Soto’s elite eye at the plate is also in a different stratosphere compared to Santander. Soto’s 18.8% walk rate in his career is roughly double a normal league average and higher than his 17% strikeout rate. Santander, meanwhile, takes a free pass at a subpar 7.3% clip.

Based on those differences, Soto is going to be Plan A for a lot of clubs, who will then view Santander as a potential safety alongside other free agent outfielders like Teoscar Hernández, Tyler O’Neill, Jurickson Profar and others. While MLBTR predicted Soto for a $600MM guarantee, Santander was projected for a deal of $80MM over four years, obviously far more affordable.

Santander has been connected to the Yankees this winter as one of many players the Yanks could turn to if they don’t get Soto and the Jays likely view their situation similarly. Soto is widely expected to secure a record-breaking contract of some kind, so teams will naturally want to assess their payroll ledgers and consider the domino effects of such a contract before pivoting to other moves.

On the pitching side, the Jays have been connected to a few starting pitchers already, as mentioned. The Jays have a veteran front three in their rotation, with Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt all under contract for 2025. Bowden Francis seems to have earned a rotation gig with his strong second half in 2024. Candidates for the fifth spot include Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss, but Rodríguez also has plenty of relief experience and could be in the bullpen. Bloss still has options and limited experience, not having thrown much in the majors nor the minors.

Adding a pitcher like Fried or Snell or Burnes would obviously strengthen the group. Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past five years, though he hasn’t been quite as dominant over the past two. From 2020 to 2022, he had a 2.62 earned run average, 33.4% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 47.6% ground ball rate. In the two most recent seasons, it’s been a 3.15 ERA, with his strikeout rate falling to 24.3%.

That’s a bit of a concern but Burnes is still arguably the top pitcher available in free agency this offseason. MLBTR predicted Burnes for $200MM over seven years, with Snell at $160MM over five and Fried at $156MM over six.

There are many ways it could play out but it seems the Jays are setting their sights high after missing out on Ohtani last winter and then having a disappointing season in 2024. It’s also been suggested that the Jays could be quite aggressive this offseason since there are a few potential pivot points coming up. Guerrero, Bichette and Bassitt are all slated for free agency for 2025, while team president Mark Shapiro and manager John Schneider are each going into the final years of their respective deals as well. General manager Ross Atkins is under contract through 2026 though it’s been suggested that he may be under pressure to deliver in the upcoming season in order to stick around.

The Jays had an Opening Day payroll of $225MM last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, with RosterResource currently projecting them for $189MM in 2025. Shapiro had previously said he didn’t expect the club’s payroll to significantly increase or decrease relative to 2024, so the Jays could have something in the vicinity of $35MM to spend this offseason on a notable free agent.

Some reporting, including from Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, has pointed to ownership perhaps having a Soto and non-Soto budget. The club was apparently willing to go to greater financial extremes to sign Ohtani last winter but didn’t end up redistributing that money to other players after he signed with the Dodgers. Similarly, the payroll ceiling could be moved up to accommodate a Soto deal but not otherwise.

Regardless of how much money they end up spending this winter, draft pick forfeiture will be another cost the club will have to consider. Each of Soto, Burnes, Fried and Santander rejected a qualifying offer, as did other potential targets like Hernández or Willy Adames. Snell wasn’t eligible to receive a QO this offseason because he already rejected one a year ago.

The Jays are believed to have just snuck under the competitive balance tax in 2024 by trading away some veterans at the deadline, which impacts their penalties for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer. A tax-paying club has to forfeit $1MM of international bonus pool space as well as its second- and fifth-highest pick in the next draft. If the Jays did indeed go under the CBT line in 2024, those penalties will instead be $500K of pool space and just the second-best draft pick. In recent years, the Jays have been willing to sign players who rejected qualifying offers, doing so with both Springer and Bassitt.

12 Players Decline Qualifying Offers

By Anthony Franco | November 19, 2024 at 2:58pm CDT

Twelve of the 13 qualified free agents have declined the QO, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The exception was Nick Martinez, who accepted the $21.05MM offer from the Reds over the weekend.

The players who rejected the offer:

Willy Adames (Brewers)
Pete Alonso (Mets)
Alex Bregman (Astros)
Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
Max Fried (Braves)
Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers)
Sean Manaea (Mets) — full post
Nick Pivetta (Red Sox) — full post
Anthony Santander (Orioles)
Luis Severino (Mets) — full post
Juan Soto (Yankees)
Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)

There wasn’t much intrigue by the time this afternoon’s deadline officially rolled around. Martinez, Pivetta and perhaps Severino were the only players who seemed like they’d consider the QO. All three made their decisions fairly early in the 15-day window that they had to weigh the offer.

All 12 players who declined the QO have a case for at least a three-year contract. Soto is looking at the biggest deal (in terms of net present value) in MLB history. Burnes, Fried, Adames, Bregman, Alonso and potentially Santander could land nine figures. Severino, Manaea, Hernández and Pivetta look like they’ll land three- or four-year deals. Walker could get to three years as well, though it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his age limits him to a two-year pact at a high average annual value.

A team that signs these players will take a hit to its draft stock and potentially its bonus pool slot for international amateurs. The penalties vary depending on the team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered the forfeitures for every team last month. A team would not forfeit a pick to re-sign its own qualified free agent, though it would lose the right to collect any kind of compensation.

If these players walk, their former teams will receive an extra draft pick. The Brewers, Orioles and Diamondbacks are in line for the highest compensation as revenue sharing recipients. If their players sign elsewhere for at least $50MM (a virtual lock in the cases of Burnes, Santander and Adames), the compensation pick would fall after the first round of next year’s draft. If the player signs for less than $50MM — which could be the case if Walker is limited to two years — the compensation pick would land before the start of the third round (roughly 70th overall).

The Red Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid the competitive balance tax. They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves and Astros all paid the tax in 2024. They’ll get a pick after the fourth round if any of their players depart — potentially three picks, in the Mets’ case. The prospects selected by that point — usually around 130th overall — tend not to be highly touted, but each extra selection could carry a slot value north of $500K to devote to next year’s draft bonus pool.

Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox Interested In Max Fried

By Darragh McDonald | November 8, 2024 at 5:15pm CDT

Left-hander Max Fried is one of the top pitchers available in free agency this offseason. The Blue Jays are one of the clubs with interest, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Fried is also connected to the Jays by Jon Heyman of The New York Post, alongside the Orioles and Red Sox. Heyman also mentions that Yankees have checked in with Fried, as well as guys like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Anthony Santander and Pete Alonso, but all of those are framed as secondary to their goal of bringing Juan Soto back to the Bronx. For Boston, they have interest in another lefty starter, with Sean McAdam of MassLive reporting they are involved with Garrett Crochet of the White Sox. On the Fenway Rundown podcast (X link), McAdam also identifies the Orioles, Padres and Dodgers as key contenders for Crochet.

Fried, 31 in January, has tossed 884 1/3 innings for Atlanta in his career. In that time, he allowed 3.07 earned runs per nine. His 23.9% career strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate are both a bit better than average while his 54.4% ground ball rate is quite strong. Among pitchers with at least 850 innings tossed from 2017 to 2024, only Framber Valdez, Logan Webb and Marcus Stroman had a higher ground ball rate than Fried. Of those four, Fried had the highest strikeout rate in that stretch while only Webb had a lower walk rate.

The lefty has also been fairly durable in that time. From 2019 to 2024, he made 11 starts in the shortened 2020 campaign and tossed at least 165 innings in each full season of that stretch except for 2023. Fried has also added another 67 postseason innings as Atlanta has been a fixture of the playoffs during his career. A forearm strain did limited him to 14 starts in 2023, which is perhaps a concern. An inflamed nerve in that same forearm caused him to miss a few starts in 2024 as well, but he was still able to take the ball 29 times and log 174 1/3 innings with a 3.25 ERA.

Atlanta gave Fried a qualifying offer that he is sure to reject while looking for a notable long-term pact. MLBTR’s recent Top 50 Free Agents post predicted Fried for a $156MM deal over six years, the third pitcher on the list behind Burnes and Snell.

Given his track record of success, he’s sure to be popular in the coming weeks and months. It was reported earlier this week that the Jays are planning to pursue starting pitching. They have three established veterans in their rotation, with José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt all under contract for next year. Bowden Francis has seemingly earned a gig as well after he posted a 1.80 ERA over his final 11 appearances in 2024.

They have Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss as options for the #5 spot but there’s sense in adding depth. Rodríguez also pitched out of the bullpen at times in 2024 and could be pushed there to begin next year. Bloss only has three big league starts and hasn’t pitched much in the minors either, so having him on optional assignment would make sense. Alek Manoah could theoretically be back in the mix but likely not until late in the year, as he underwent UCL surgery in June.

RosterResource estimates the Jays are about $20MM shy of last year’s payroll, though they could non-tender some of their nine arbitration-eligible players to give themselves more room. Team president Mark Shapiro has indicated that he doesn’t expect the club’s spending to deviate significantly from last year. Giving Fried $26MM per year or something close to it would seemingly use up a decent chunk of their spending power. They also have needs on the infield, in the outfield and in the bullpen. The trade market could help in some of those areas but they will have to assess how to direct their resources in addressing multiple parts of the roster.

The Baltimore rotation just took a big hit as Burnes became a free agent, leaving them with Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer as their front three. Kyle Bradish had Tommy John surgery in June and can’t be counted on for a while. Guys like Trevor Rogers or Albert Suárez could fill out the back but there’s sense in pursuing upgrades. Rogers struggled after being acquired from the Marlins while Suárez is a 35-year-old journeyman. Prospects like Chayce McDermott and Cade Povich haven’t yet been established in the major leagues.

The major question for the Orioles this offseason is what their true spending power is. It has now been over six years since they have given a multi-year deal to any free agent. Their four-year deal for Alex Cobb in March of 2018 was the last time they went beyond a one-year pact on the open market, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.

Now that their rebuild is long done and David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club has become official, the general expectation is that the O’s will break that streak. But that could come in various forms, such as a two-year deal for someone like Nathan Eovaldi or a three- or four-year pact for someone like Manaea. It’s difficult to say right now whether they plan to be aggressive enough to land someone like Fried or perhaps re-sign Burnes.

For the Red Sox, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently said that the club plans to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. They have a core group of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford at the moment. Lucas Giolito will be back at some point after undergoing internal brace surgery on his elbow in the middle of March last year. Nick Pivetta is now a free agent but is currently deciding whether or not to accept the qualifying offer that the Sox gave him. Garrett Whitlock could be in the mix but he could also wind up in the bullpen. Quinn Priester, Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts are possibilities but could also wind up in the minors or in the ’pen.

It appears that the Sox are setting their sights high in pursuing upgrades of that group, with Fried and Crochet both being quality pitchers. Crochet’s move from the bullpen to the rotation in 2024 could hardly have gone better, as he ultimately tossed 146 innings with a 3.58 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate.

The rebuilding White Sox have little reason to hold onto him, as Crochet is now just two years away from free agency. Since the White Sox just wrapped up the worst season of the modern baseball era, they probably won’t return to contention in that time. There’s been little to indicate that a contract extension is likely, so Crochet is seen as one of the top trade candidates of this offseason. He is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of just $2.9MM next year, meaning he could fit into the budget of any club.

White Sox general manager Chris Getz says the the club is targeting position players in their Crochet trade talks. That could allow them and Boston to line up on a deal, as the Red Sox have a group of prospects known as the “Big Four”. Each of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel are nearing their major league debuts, meaning Boston either needs to find space for them on the big league roster or perhaps make them available in trades. McAdam suggests Anthony is untouchable but is less certain about the others in that group.

The White Sox will naturally have to assess what the Red Sox are willing to give up, as well as the other clubs. The Orioles have had one of the best farms in baseball in recent years, though it’s probably not as strong as it was. Many of the top names are now on the big league roster or have been used in trades as the club has pivoted into win-now mode.

The Padres’ interest in Crochet is logical both because they seem to be interested in everybody and also because they have budgetary concerns. Last winter’s Soto trade was largely about cutting payroll and getting the club under the competitive balance tax in the wake of their TV deal falling apart. Per RosterResource, their projected 2025 spending is already slated to blow past last year’s levels and they are right around the CBT line before the offseason has really even begun in earnest. Their rotation took a big hit when Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery, so replacing him with someone cheap like Crochet is obviously appealing.

The Dodgers pursued Crochet at the deadline a few months ago but no deal came together. They eventually won the World Series despite their rotation being essentially whittled down to a trio of Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler. Both Flaherty and Buehler are now free agents. The Dodgers will get other guys back in the mix as they heal from injuries, such as Tyler Glasnow and Tony Gonsolin, but they could definitely find space for Crochet.

They have also been repeat CBT payors and therefore face high penalties. Per RosterResource, they are already slated to have a CBT number of $272MM next year, not far from the third tier of penalization with still plenty of offseason left to go.

As for the Yankees, the entire baseball world knows that their top priority is bringing back Soto, which will likely cost something close to $50MM per year for over a decade. If they don’t end up succeeding in bringing Soto back, they will have lots of options for redirecting that money to other parts of the roster. First base is open with Anthony Rizzo becoming a free agent. Soto’s departure would also make it viable to go after another outfielder. The club seemingly considered acquiring Flaherty at the deadline and then dealing Nestor Cortes, so some version of that could be in play again this offseason.

Theoretically, that makes Fried, Alonso, Santander or many other players viable fallback options, but it seems like those will only get real consideration after there’s more clarity with Soto. At this early stage of the offseason, there are infinite possibilities and each development will have domino effects. If some club lands Crochet, the clubs that miss out will have to pivot to other options. The clubs that don’t land Fried will have to adapt as well, as the various pieces of the free agent market and trade market are all interconnected.

13 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

By Darragh McDonald | November 4, 2024 at 4:12pm CDT

Today is the deadline for teams to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players. Per Jeff Passan of ESPN on X, 13 players have received the QO and they are:

Juan Soto (Yankees)
Corbin Burnes (Orioles)
Alex Bregman (Astros)
Max Fried (Braves)
Willy Adames (Brewers)
Pete Alonso (Mets)
Anthony Santander (Orioles)
Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers)
Nick Pivetta (Red Sox)
Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)
Sean Manaea (Mets)
Luis Severino (Mets)
Nick Martinez (Reds)

As a recap, the qualifying offer system was created in the name of competitive balance, allowing clubs to receive compensation if key players depart via free agency. The value changes from year to year as it is the average of the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. This year’s QO is valued at $21.05MM.

If the player rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, his previous team receives draft compensation while his new club is subject to draft pick forfeiture and sometimes international bonus penalties as well. MLBTR has previously covered what each team’s compensation and penalties would be.

Players have until 3pm Central on November 19 to decide whether to accept or not. In that time, they are free to negotiate with other clubs just like all other free agents, assessing their options before making a decision.

Most of the players on this list are not surprising. Many of them have enough earning power where it was obvious that they would receive a QO and they have an easy decision to reject it while going on to pursue larger guarantees on multi-year deals. Some of the decisions were a bit more borderline and MLBTR took closer looks at those in separate posts, including Martinez, Pivetta and Severino/Manaea.

There were also some notable players who were candidates to receive a QO but ultimately didn’t. MLBTR recently took a look at the pitchers and position players with a chance at receiving a QO. Michael Wacha was listed as a possibility but that came off the table when he and the Royals agreed to a new deal yesterday. Shane Bieber of the Guardians, Jeff Hoffman of the Phillies, Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals, Tyler O’Neill of the Red Sox, Gleyber Torres of the Yankees, as well as Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar of the Padres were all identified as long shots to receive a QO and ultimately none of them did.

Clubs generally don’t want to lose draft picks or be subject to the other associated penalties. As such, receiving a QO can sometimes have a negative impact on a player’s prospects in free agency, though it won’t be a significant factor for the top guys.

What Will The Orioles Outfield Look Like In 2025?

By Leo Morgenstern | October 7, 2024 at 2:00pm CDT

The Orioles ran out the same three outfielders each Opening Day between 2021 and ’24: Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, and Austin Hays. And in each year from 2020-23, Mullins, Santander, and Hays were Baltimore’s three primary outfielders. This past season, however, Colton Cowser broke out with a phenomenal rookie campaign, cementing his position in the outfield at Camden Yards for years to come. Facing a logjam in the lineup, the Orioles dealt Hays to the Phillies ahead of the trade deadline, officially splitting up the Mullins/Santander/Hays triumvirate. Santander could be next to leave; after the conclusion of the World Series, he will become a free agent. Thus, for the first time in a long time, the Orioles’ outfield could look quite different on Opening Day 2025.

There is no doubt that Cowser will have a job in the Orioles’ outfield next season. Not only did he hit 24 home runs with a 120 wRC+ in 2024, but he did so while playing strong defense. The 24-year-old compiled 11 OAA and 3 DRS over 809 2/3 innings in left field, 310 innings in center, and 73 innings in right. He made just one error all year. Cowser is under team control through at least the 2029 season, and he will not be eligible for arbitration until at least 2027.

Mullins should be a lock for the 2025 outfield as well, although the Orioles will have to tender him a contract as he enters his final year of arbitration eligibility. Matt Swartz’s model estimates Mullins would earn approximately $8.7MM next year, a $2.375MM raise from his $6.325MM salary this season. That’s a bargain for a player like Mullins, even with his 2021 All-Star campaign getting smaller and smaller in the rearview mirror. He has been roughly league-average at the plate over the past two seasons (102 wRC+) while providing plenty of value on the bases (51-for-60 in stolen base attempts) and playing a premium defensive position. Different metrics disagree about his talents in center field, but ultimately, the versions of WAR at both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference agree he has been a valuable contributor. From 2023-24, Mullins compiled 4.2 fWAR and 5.3 bWAR. There’s a chance the Orioles would consider moving Mullins to a corner and giving Cowser the center field job; including college and the minors, Cowser has more experience in center field than any other position. Mullins and his league-average bat would be less valuable in a corner spot, but a $8.7MM salary would still be a team-friendly price for his services.

As for the final spot in the outfield, plenty of fans would love to see Santander back next season (and for several more to come), but it’s unclear how intently the Orioles will pursue the All-Star slugger in free agency. They will surely make him the qualifying offer, and he just as will surely decline. He is likely seeking a multi-year deal worth at least $20MM per season. General manager Mile Elias is hoping to increase payroll this winter in his first full offseason working under new owner David Rubenstein, but it’s unclear how much money he’ll have to work with. More to the point, Elias might prfer to spend the majority of his resources improving a pitching staff that finished 14th in MLB in ERA and 10th in FanGraphs WAR rather than an offense that finished fourth in runs scored and third in wRC+. Santander will be a big loss for the offense, but ace Corbin Burnes, another impending free agent, will be an even bigger departure for Elias to address. With all that said, the Orioles might stick with their internal options to replace Santander in 2025.

Baltimore would love for 25-year-old Heston Kjerstad to step up and fill that role. The lefty batter put up ludicrous numbers in the minors this past season, batting .300 with a .998 OPS and 152 wRC+ in 56 games at Triple-A. His big league numbers (.745 OPS, 116 wRC+ in 39 games) weren’t bad, especially not for a rookie, but some of the underlying metrics suggest he’s due for regression (.301 xwOBA compared to a .327 wOBA), and his 28.9% strikeout rate was concerningly high for a hitter who wasn’t showing off plus power or plate discipline. Moreover, his outfield defense wasn’t particularly impressive in a small sample size (-1 DRS, -1 FRV). Kjerstad has the tools to be a terrific player, but he’ll to take a step forward at the plate if he’s going to provide above-average value as a defensively-limited corner outfielder.

Another option to play some corner outfield for the Orioles next year could be Coby Mayo, who is currently the team’s top prospect according to Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. Throughout his brief professional career, Mayo has mostly played third base. Aside from his strong arm, however, he has never graded out as a top-notch defender at the hot corner. So, with Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg already entrenched in the Orioles’ infield and Jackson Holliday not going anywhere, Mayo’s future might need to be somewhere else. He has experience playing first base as well, and that could be his long-term position. But considering his terrific throwing arm, it makes sense that he would give the outfield a try. To that point, Elias recently suggested right field could be an option for the 22-year-old, though he made it clear the organization still views him as an infielder, and primarily a first baseman, going forward (per Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball).

Two more internal options to keep in mind are prospects Dylan Beavers and Enrique Bradfield Jr. Beavers, 23, is the team’s No. 5 prospect according to FanGraphs, No. 6 according to MLB Pipeline, and No. 7 according to Baseball America. He hit well enough at Double-A in 2024 (15 HR, 118 wRC+ in 119 games) to earn a brief promotion to Triple-A at the end of the season. He’s also a plus runner with the potential to be a capable big league center fielder. Bradfield, 22, is a few months younger and a little further away from the majors; he moved up from High-A to Double-A this past August. However, most sources agree he is the slightly more promising prospect. FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline have him at No. 4, while Baseball America has him at No. 6. He boasts 80-grade speed and has the skills to be an elite defensive center fielder. As for his bat, he has little power to speak of, so he’ll need to prove he can maintain his impressive bat-to-ball skills against tougher competition. Neither Beavers nor Bradfield needs protection from the Rule 5 draft this offseason, and neither is a likely candidate to make the Opening Day roster out of camp. However, their relative proximity to the majors could be a reason why the Orioles avoid signing a free agent outfielder to a multi-year deal.

Finally, the Orioles will have to decide whether or not to pick up Ryan O’Hearn’s $8MM club option for 2025. O’Hearn is primarily a first baseman and DH, but he played 27 games in the outfield last season. The 31-year-old slashed .264/.334/.427 with 15 home runs and a 119 wRC+ in 2024, good for 1.7 fWAR. If he can repeat that performance next season, an $8MM salary would be more than fair, but with Kjerstad and Mayo in need of playing time, the Orioles might prefer to spend that $8MM elsewhere.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

No Extension Talks Yet Between Orioles, Anthony Santander

By Mark Polishuk | August 8, 2024 at 7:23pm CDT

Anthony Santander is slated to become a free agent following the season, and the outfielder told reporters (including Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com) that the Orioles haven’t yet had any extension talks. The lack of negotiations didn’t seem to bother Santander since he is “just focusing on helping my team win right now,” but he reiterated that he wanted to remain in Baltimore.

“This is the team that gave me the opportunity to play in the big leagues,” Santander said. “I like where we are right now. We are a really good team. This team is about to get in a World Series soon, hopefully this year. Of course I would like to stay here for the rest of my career….So happy and thank you for the fans that want me to stay here.”

Santander began his pro career in Cleveland’s organization, but he came to the Orioles in the December 2016 Rule 5 Draft, and has subsequently become one of the most-cited examples of how the R5 can add talent to a team’s roster. After making his MLB debut in 2017, Santander struggled in his first few tastes of big league action before finally breaking out during the shortened 2020 campaign. After a dropoff in 2021, he got back on track in 2022-23 and has now stepped up again with the best full season of his career.

Aaron Judge is the only player with more homers than Santander this season, as the O’s stalwart has left the yard 34 times — already a career high even in early August. Santander’s power has fueled his 137 wRC+ and overall .248/.311/.540 slash line. The batting average and OBP almost exactly match his career averages, but while consistent hitting and getting on-base isn’t always easy for Santander, he has an above-average strikeout rate and makes the most of his contact. He ranks in the 92nd percentile of all hitter in barrels this season, with an even 40 over his 110 games.

Between this offense, a solid right-field glove, and the fact that 2025 will be Santander’s age-30 season, the outfielder figures to land a very nice payday on the free agent market this winter. The Orioles will surely issue him a qualifying offer, and Santander will just as surely reject that one-year offer in search of a longer-term deal, so the O’s would land a compensatory draft pick if Santander signed elsewhere.

With David Rubenstein now owning the Orioles, it is no longer a foregone conclusion that Santander will be wearing another uniform in the coming years. Rubenstein already okayed a modest payroll increase to fund the Orioles’ trade deadline moves, and GM Mike Elias figures to have considerably more money to work with as the front office figures out the best route to sustaining and building on its outstanding core of young talent. Since Rubenstein only officially took over the club last spring, this offseason represents a new era for the franchise in terms of how the O’s will approach trades, free agent signings, and the possibility of retaining productive stars like Santander.

To this same end, it isn’t surprising that Elias and company haven’t yet explored a contract extension with Santander’s reps, given the overlap of Rubenstein’s purchase and Spring Training (when most teams hash out extensions with impending free agents). Players generally prefer to eliminate distractions by halting contract talks once the season begins, so there’s nothing unusual in the two sides not holding any discussions.

That said, Santander’s future in Baltimore has long been considered a question mark exactly due to that young core. Santander’s name surfaced in trade speculation back when the Orioles were still rebuilding, but the club held onto him due to his veteran presence and the continued production that Santander brought to an O’s team that got back to contention a little earlier than expected. The longtime outfeld trio of Santander, Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays was officially broken up at the trade deadline when Hays was dealt to the Phillies, and Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad are now viewed as the outfield staples of the future. With this duo already getting big-league action and notable outfield prospects Dylan Beavers, Enrique Bradfield, and Jud Fabian down on the farm, Baltimore might opt to let Santander walk, and replace him either from within or with a short-term veteran outfield bat. Ryan O’Hearn’s club option for 2025 seems like a strong bet to be exercised, giving the Orioles more corner outfield depth.

AL East Notes: Houck, Kahnle, Santander

By Mark Polishuk | May 19, 2024 at 4:28pm CDT

The Red Sox locked up Brayan Bello and Ceddanne Rafaela to contract extensions this past spring, but no deal developed between the team and Tanner Houck, even though the two sides had some negotiations. Houck confirmed to MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo that some “discussions” took place, “but we’re at where we are now. I put that behind me whenever we shook hands and said, ’Let’s go out and win as many games as we can.’ ” There’s nothing preventing Houck and the Sox from restarting talks, though it would seem that Houck (like most players) prefers to save contractual matters for the offseason to cut down on potential distractions.

The right-hander also doesn’t even reach arbitration eligibility until this coming winter, so since he is already under team control through 2027, Boston might not feel too much urgency to lock Houck up on an extension. Of course, given how Houck has pitched this season, the Sox might’ve missed their window for landing Houck at a relative bargain price. Houck has broken out with a 2.17 ERA over 58 innings and nine starts, and his secondary metrics are highlighted by impressive grounder (55.2%), walk (4.7%) and barrel (3.7%) rates. Even in a season marked by impressive pitching around baseball, Houck has stood out, as his 1.9 fWAR is behind only Tarik Skubal as the highest in the league.

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