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Yankees Place Anthony Rizzo On IL With Post-Concussion Syndrome

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The Yankees are placing first baseman Anthony Rizzo on the injured list today, with Aaron Boone telling reporters that Rizzo has a “likely” concussion. He says the club has traced this to a collision he had with Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres on May 28, per Deesha Thosar of Fox Sports. Rizzo passed concussion protocol at the time but recently complained of fogginess, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. He will be evaluated week to week while Jake Bauers and DJ LeMahieu handle first base, per Hoch. The club has now made it official, listed Rizzo’s ailment as post-concussion syndrome. Infielder/outfielder Oswaldo Cabrera was recalled in a corresponding move.

It’s an unusual injured list move, as players with concussions or concussion-like symptoms usually find themselves out of action in the immediate aftermath of the event in question. In this instance, the Yankees seem to believe Rizzo is being impacted by something that happened over two months ago. The play in question can be seen in this video, relayed on Twitter by Talkin’ Baseball. The slow motion replay appears to show Tatis, while attempting to get back to first on a pickoff throw from the catcher, make contact with Rizzo’s head via his hip. Rizzo then appears visibly dizzy in the moments after.

Rizzo was removed from that game and sat out the club’s next three contests, but was back in the lineup June 2. He’s hit .172/.271/.225 in 192 plate appearances since that collision, which perhaps lends credence to the idea that he has been affected in some way. Still, it seems strange on the surface that it took over two months to hone in on a diagnosis. Rizzo himself tells Hoch that he was more tired of late but thought it was just due to the typical grind of the season. He added that he would sometimes wake up feeling hungover and forget the number of outs during games. “I didn’t just forget how to do this all of a sudden,” he said, in reference to his declining results. It seems the situation is still evolving, with the club planning to reevaluate Rizzo regularly in the weeks to come in order to navigate a path forward.

Rizzo’s struggles have been just one part of a fairly tepid Yankee offense this year, as they were also without Aaron Judge for almost two months. He was on the IL from early June to late July thanks to a right great toe sprain. Overall, the club is hitting .231/.302/.404 for a wRC+ of 95 this year, with that mark placing them 21st out of the 30 clubs in the majors.

There are lots of moving pieces in the position player mix now, with Judge back but having served as the designated hitter recently. That’s pushed Giancarlo Stanton into the outfield alongside players like Bauers, Harrison Bader, Billy McKinney, Greg Allen and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. LeMahieu and Kiner-Falefa have also been splitting third base with Josh Donaldson on the injured list, but it seems like Bauers and LeMahieu will now be covering first as well. Cabrera should be able to be plugged in wherever needed, as he’s played all four infield positions and the outfield corners.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, #6: The Cubs’ Fire Sale

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8 and No. 7. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto No. 6…

The 2021 season marked a turning point in Cubs franchise history. Half a decade had elapsed since the team’s curse-breaking 2016 World Series run. The “dynasty” chatter that followed that seven-game victory over Cleveland never really manifested into reality. Chicago was a perennial contender, but that vaunted Cubs core never reached the World Series again and only won one game beyond the National League Division Series before the group was suddenly nearing the end of its time together.

Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks was a sensational group of talent around which to build, but Hendricks was the only one of the bunch to put pen to paper on an extension. The group continued inching closer to free agency, and as Lester and Arrieta declined in their latter years in Chicago, some of the shine wore off. The Cubs were a good team, but year after year, the season ended with now-former president of baseball operations Theo Epstein making similar comments about how the “offense broke” or something else went wrong.

Following a 2020 season that saw the Cubs swept out of a three-game Wild Card series against the Marlins in the expanded playoff format, Epstein stepped down from his role as president and turned baseball autonomy over to Jed Hoyer. It was baptism by fire in every sense of the cliche, as Hoyer faced a series of unenviable decisions, beginning with Schwarber. Fresh off a .188/.308/.393 showing in 244 plate appearances in 2020, Schwarber was non-tendered rather than offered a raise heading into his final year of arbitration. Not four weeks later, Yu Darvish was traded to the Padres in a salary-motivated deal that has to date produced just one prospect of any note (Owen Caissie).

Decision time was only just beginning for Hoyer and his staff. The Cubs would need to determine how to proceed with the trio of Bryant, Rizzo and Baez, each of whom were slated to become free agents following the 2021 season. Prior extension talks had never resulted in a deal — though Baez was reportedly quite close to signing before baseball grinded to a halt with the Covid pandemic in 2020. Chicago made one final effort to extend Rizzo that spring, but he spurned their five-year, $70MM offer (and has since banked three years and $56MM in guaranteed money with the Yankees).

The Cubs could’ve traded any of the bunch that offseason, and Bryant’s name in particular echoed throughout the rumor mill as much as it ever had. Ultimately, all three stayed put, and thus the ensuing narratives that would dominate the 2021 Cubs season were set into motion. Would any of Bryant, Baez or Rizzo stay? Was the core finally breaking up? Was this the team’s last chance?

The lackluster offseason headlined by trading the prior season’s Cy Young runner-up should’ve answered that final question on its own, but the Cubs surprised plenty of onlookers by not only fielding a competitive team but vying for first place in the division for much of the first few months. As late into the season as June 24, the Cubs were eight games over .500 and in a first-place tie for the NL Central lead with the Brewers.

A subsequent 11-game losing streak — the first of two 11-game losing streaks for that year’s Cubs — removed all doubt, however. By July 8, the Cubs were below .500, and the surging Brewers had remained hot. They held a 9.5-game lead over the second-place Reds, with Chicago and St. Louis tied for third in the division. The fire sale was coming, and virtually everyone knew it.

Rizzo was the first to go. A July 29 deal sent him to the Yankees in exchange for 19-year-old outfielder Kevin Alcantara and 24-year-old righty Alexander Vizcaino. A day later, Baez was following Rizzo out of Wrigley. Traded alongside right-hander Trevor Williams, Baez went to the Mets in exchange for 19-year-old outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. For the next 24 hours, there were serious questions about whether a trade for Bryant would ultimately come together, but in a buzzer-beating deal, Bryant was shipped to the Giants in exchange for 21-year-old outfielder Alexander Canario and 24-year-old righty Caleb Kilian.

You can perhaps call the inclusion of Baez cheating a little bit for the purposes of this series, because Williams’ inclusion meant it wasn’t *technically* a rental. The Mets acquired two months of control over Baez and a year-plus of Williams in this swap. That extra year of control over Williams surely factored into the decision to part with Crow-Armstrong to an extent, but this was a trade about acquiring Baez first and foremost. Baez caught fire down the stretch for the Mets, too, posting a huge .299/.371/.515 slash in 186 plate appearances. The Mets still missed postseason, however, and the trade surely stings when looking at what’s become of the player they surrendered.

Fast forward less than two years, and “PCA” is regarded as one of the sport’s top outfield prospects. He’s ranked within the top-30 overall prospects in the sport on the most recent lists Baseball America, MLB.com, FanGraphs and Keith Law of The Athletic. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel has the “low” ranking on Crow-Armstrong… at No. 39 in the game. Regarded as plus-plus defender in center field with plus speed, Crow-Armstrong has opened the season with a .278/.345/.513 showing in Double-A (131 wRC+). He’s knocked eight homers, seven doubles and three of triples while going 13-for-17 in steals.

Obviously, the Cubs haven’t yet gotten any big league value out of Crow-Armstrong, but it’s rare for a team to acquire a prospect in exchange for a rental and see him almost immediately ascend to the point that he’s regarded as one of the top 15 to 30 prospects in all of baseball. If the Cubs wanted to do so — they surely don’t, to be clear — they could use Crow-Armstrong as a headline piece to acquire just about any controllable veteran who hits the market this summer or next offseason. The likelier path for PCA is that he’ll be given every opportunity to become a franchise center fielder for a still-retooling Cubs club.

There’s no nitpicking with the other two swaps in this three-for-one entry. Rizzo and Bryant were shipped out as two-month mercenaries in exchange for a quartet of prospects, although Rizzo took to the Bronx quite nicely and is now locked in as a Yankee through the 2024 season. There was plenty for the Yankees to like, as Rizzo hit .249/.340/.428 (113 wRC+) down the stretch, swatting eight homers and seven postseason doubles before tacking on another dinger in that year’s Wild Card loss to the Red Sox. In parts of three seasons as a Yankee, Rizzo is a .245/.344/.468 hitter with 51 home runs.

I doubt the Yankees regret making this swap, but it’s worked out nicely for the Cubs as well. Alcantara, now 20 years old, isn’t as highly regarded as Crow-Armstrong, but he entered the season ranked No. 91 on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect rankings. He’s dropped off that list after a slow start in High-A (.250/.281/.389), but he still sits at No. 75 at FanGraphs and is generally a very well regarded prospect.

It’s worth bearing in mind that those pedestrian High-A numbers have been posted against competition that is, on average, nearly two and a half years older than Alcantara. The towering 6’6″ toolbox is also just a season removed from a much heartier .273/.360/.451 showing in Class-A, where he was nearly two years younger than the league’s average player. He’s a ways off, but like Crow-Armstrong, Alcantara has significantly elevated his stock since that 2021 trade. If the Cubs were so inclined, he too could be a significant piece in any potential deadline trade for controllable big league help. That’s not likely to happen — granted, it’s a bit more plausible with Alcantara than with Crow-Armstrong — but Alcantara has become a reasonably high-profile prospect.

That’s not the case with the now-26-year-old Vizcaino, though the circumstances surrounding his departure from baseball remain unclear. The Cubs placed Vizcaino on the restricted list in 2022  after he failed to report to spring training. He spent the entire year on the restricted list. The Cubs non-tendered him last offseason, and he didn’t sign with another team. Details surrounding Vizcaino’s abrupt departure from the game are basically nonexistent. The obvious hope is that he’s happy and healthy wherever he’s at, but it’s a disappointing outcome for the Cubs.

As for the third and final chapter of this deadline trio, Bryant proved an important pickup for the Giants. True, San Francisco would’ve made the postseason regardless, evidenced by their MLB-best 107 wins that season, but they edged out the division-rival Dodgers for that NL West crown by a margin of just one game. Bryant’s solid .262/.344/.444 slash may not have been in line with his peak form, but he contributed a meaningful presence in the Giants’ lineup down the stretch. They’d go on to fall to those same Dodgers in the National League Division Series, but not through any fault of Bryant’s. He delivered an 8-for-17 performance in the NLDS, adding a homer and a walk with only three strikeouts in 18 total trips to the plate.

Unlike with the other two trades, Cubs fans have at least gotten a look at one element of this return, although the now-26-year-old Kilian’s big league work to date hasn’t been pretty. The 6’4″ righty is still widely regarded as one of the organization’s best pitching prospects, but he’s been tagged for 20 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings through a pair of very limited auditions. He’s pitched 148 Triple-A innings as a starter over the past two seasons, logging a 4.32 ERA with a 24.2% strikeout rate against an 11.1% walk rate.

Command wasn’t an issue for him prior to reaching Triple-A, but he struggled with walks last year. It’s encouraging that he’s walked just 6.8% of his opponents over his past seven Triple-A starts, pitching to a 3.09 ERA along the way, but Kilian has also plunked six hitters in that time so he’s not out of the woods with his shaky location just yet. He’s in the mix to come up and make some starts this year still, and depending on how he fares, Kilian could be a candidate for a rotation spot either later this season or in 2024.

As for Canario, he finished second among all minor leaguers with 37 home runs in 2022 and hit .252/.343/.556 across High-A, Double-A and Triple-A. He added 23 steals (in 26 tries) and walked at an 11% clip, though his 27.5% strikeout rate was more concerning. Baseball America calls him a potential low-average slugger with plenty of walks, above-average speed and above-average defense in right field. He hasn’t yet gotten a chance to build on last year’s breakout, as he dislocated his shoulder while playing in the Dominican Winter League.

We’re just shy of two years removed from the Cubs’ deadline fire sale, and while it’s still early to grade the overall strength of their return, things are looking promising. To trade three rental players and come away with a pair of top-100 prospects — including one who’s widely ranked in the top 25 — as well as a near-MLB starting pitcher and a strikeout-prone but prodigious slugging outfielder with power, speed and defensive upside is objectively impressive.

On the one hand, it’s a testament to the caliber of the players the Cubs were trading, but not all trades of star players result in this type of return. The Orioles have still barely gotten anything from the Manny Machado trade nearly five years after its completion. The Rangers’ trade of Darvish to the Dodgers netted them one immediate top prospect, but two years after the deal that prospect (Willie Calhoun) was already looking like a questionable big leaguer.

The tail-end of the development phase for the prospects acquired here — particularly Crow-Armstrong — will define this series of trades. But four of the five prospects acquired in this slate of trades have enhanced their stock since joining the Cubs, who now have a handful of near-MLB-ready talent and/or trade chips to show for parting with a trio of popular veterans. The 2021 trade deadline was a dark few days for Cubs fans, but there’s a good chance it’ll wind up leading to some brighter times ahead.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

AL East Notes: Fairbanks, Rizzo, Blue Jays

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In the words of Rays manager Kevin Cash, Pete Fairbanks’ “hip locked up” while the reliever was getting ready to enter today’s game with the Dodgers.  Instead, Fairbanks halted his warm-up and went to the dugout once the inning was over.  Cash told Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times and other reporters that according to the team trainer, Fairbanks’ “muscles look to be okay, but we saw him walk very gingerly from the bullpen and he was in some pain.”  More will be known after Fairbanks undergoes further examination.

Fairbanks already spent 15 days on the injured list due to forearm inflammation earlier this season, and missed a couple of other games due to his symptoms of Raynaud’s disease, which manifests in the form of finger numbness.  Injuries have been a frequent setback for Fairbanks during his pro career, but he has been a very effective reliever when healthy, as indicated by his 2.84 ERA over 117 1/3 innings since joining the Rays during the 2019 season.  Tampa is 13 games into a stretch of 16 games in 16 games, and while Cash is hopeful that his bullpen can hold up until Thursday’s off-day, the club doesn’t have much room to maneuver if Fairbanks has to miss even a couple of days to recover.

More from around the AL East…

  • Anthony Rizzo left today’s game for what the Yankees deemed as “precautionary reasons” due to a neck injury.  During an unsuccessful attempt by Fernando Tatis Jr. to get back to first base during the sixth inning, Tatis’ hip and upper leg collided with Rizzo’s head, leaving Rizzo shaken up.  He left the game and underwent concussion protocol, though manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including MLB.com’s Betelhem Ashame) after the game that Rizzo “was fine” and might even be able to return for Monday’s game.
  • While other division rivals have dealt with various injuries, the Blue Jays have been among the healthier teams in baseball, which The Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm notes is something of a double-edged sword.  While it’s obviously good news that the Jays have avoided any major injury concerns, the club hasn’t really capitalized on its good fortune, as Toronto’s 28-26 record puts them in last place in the competitive AL East.  Furthermore, it seems unlikely that the Jays will avoid the injury bug for too long, which will put a further strain on the club’s thin bench.  This lack of depth has already been tested over the last few days, with Danny Jansen now on the 10-day IL and Kevin Kiermaier leaving Saturday’s game with back soreness.

AL Notes: Astros, Rizzo, Turner

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Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. began playing catch yesterday, and threw 30 times per reporters including the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome. In addition, Rome also notes that slugger Yordan Alvarez hit soft toss today as he builds toward game action after being delayed this spring by hand soreness.

These positive health updates are excellent news for the Astros. Alvarez is among the very best hitters in all of baseball, and any time missed by the slugger would surely be a massive blow to the Astros offense as they attempt to win a second straight World Series following their 2022 championship run. McCullers, meanwhile, is expected to begin the season on the injured list, but a swift return to action would be a major boon for Houston, which lacks much starting depth beyond unproven prospects and Brandon Bielak, who is currently slated for a long relief role in the big league bullpen.

More from around the American League…

  • Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters, including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, that first baseman Anthony Rizzo is dealing with a “cranky” back, though Rizzo is expected to return to game action Tuesday. Rizzo, who will play this season at age 33, has battled back injuries throughout his career and has had to sit more frequently in recent years to manage the ailment. He underwent an epidural last September due to the lingering issue, though it appears that procedure has not completely solved his struggles. Despite his occasional injury woes, Rizzo has been among the most consistent bats in the league for over a decade now, posting above average marks by measure of wRC+ in eleven straight seasons while playing at least 80% of his club’s games since the beginning of the 2013 season.
  • Justin Turner was among the bigger acquisitions for the Red Sox this offseason, and the veteran seems to be progressing well after getting hit in the face with a pitch last week. Turner told reporters, including MLB.com’s Ian Browne, that he had his stitches removed today and is set to return to baseball activities ahead of the schedule provided by manager Alex Cora this past Wednesday. Turner, 38, is expected to primarily play DH for the Red Sox when he returns to action, which Turner expects to be as soon as Opening Day. The longtime Dodgers was a late bloomer, having his breakout season at age 29 in Los Angeles, but since then has been a stable bat with a well above average OPS of .866 in 1,075 games since the start of the 2014 season.

Yankees To Re-Sign Anthony Rizzo To Multi-Year Deal

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The Yankees and Anthony Rizzo are in agreement to reunite on a two-year deal with a $40MM guarantee. That comes in the form of a $17MM salary in 2023 and 2024, followed by a $17MM club option for 2025 with a $6MM buyout.

Rizzo, 33, spent many years with the Cubs, a key part of the club’s core that broke the 108-year curse by winning the 2016 World Series. From 2014 to 2019, he was remarkably consistent and productive, hitting between 27 and 32 home runs in each of those six years. His wRC+ was always between 126 and 155, indicating he was between 26% and 55% above league average at the plate. His wins above replacement tally, according to FanGraphs, was between 3.2 and 5.3 in each of those campaigns.

The next two seasons saw Rizzo slide from those great heights somewhat, though he was still a strong performer. In the shortened 2020 campaign, he hit .222/.342/.414 for a wRC+ of 103. The next year, which included a midseason deal to the Yankees, came in at .248/.344/.440 and a wRC+ of 113.

Despite the slight downturn, he was still above-average at the plate and is generally considered a solid defender at first base. He was ineligible for a qualifying offer because of the midseason trade. He and the Yankees agreed to a deal that would keep him in the Bronx, with Rizzo earning $32MM over two years, though he could opt out of the final year and its $16MM salary.

Despite dealing with various ailments throughout 2022, he ended up having a nice bounceback campaign. His 32 home runs matched a career high and his .224/.338/.480 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 132. Based on that strong showing, he triggered his opt-out and returned to free agency in search of a larger deal. It’s also been speculated that the upcoming ban on aggressive defensive shifts will help him, given that his left-handed bat and low speed make him particularly vulnerable to those. The Yankees extended a $19.65MM qualifying offer to him, which he could have accepted and locked in a slight raise over his expected salary. But it seemed he had other suitors, with the Astros being one club known to have interest in him.

3pm Central time today was the deadline for players to accept or reject qualifying offers, with Rizzo among the 12 who declined, though reports emerged shortly thereafter that he and the Yankees agreed to a longer pact. Rizzo will return to his post at first base and earn $17MM per year, so very close to the QO, but he’ll actually have an AAV slightly ahead of it thanks to the buyout. His $40MM guarantee over two years comes out just barely ahead of the two years and $36MM projected by MLBTR.

By getting Rizzo to put pen to paper, the Yanks have prevented a key bat from departing in free agency. Of course, Rizzo is only the second most important player in this camp, as all eyes are squarely focused on Aaron Judge and whether the Yanks can convince him to stay. With Rizzo’s contract on the books, the club’s 2023 payroll is now around $207MM in the estimation of Roster Resource. Last year, they opened the season at $246MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, leaving them about $40MM in space before they’re caught up to that difference. Of course, if they are willing to increase their spending beyond last year’s levels, they should have even more to work with.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that Rizzo and the Yanks were reuniting on a multi-year deal. Andy Martino of SNY first relayed the two-year plus a club option framework. Jack Curry of YES Network was first on the dollars.

Image courtesy USA Today Sports.

12 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 14 players who received qualifying offers have rejected those one-year, $19.65MM contracts in favor of testing the open market, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Martin Perez and Joc Pederson are the only two who accepted a QO. Each of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Anderson have rejected the deal. Anderson is already in agreement on a three-year contract with the Angels.

None of the news is all that surprising, aside from perhaps Anderson’s early multi-year strike with the Halos. Perez and Pederson were two of the three most likely candidates to take the QO. That the Giants tagged Pederson at all was a move few saw coming, and most believed he’d indeed take the QO once it was put forth.

None of Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, deGrom, Rodon, Nimmo, Bassitt or Contreras likely gave much thought to the possibility. Eovaldi and Rizzo were more borderline candidates, but the latter quickly returns to the Yankees on a multi-year deal that’ll pay him around the QO rate over two guaranteed seasons. Eovaldi has yet to sign, but he’ll presumably continue to search for a longer-term contract after taking advantage of the five days to scour the market.

The clubs that saw a free agent decline a qualifying offer now stand to receive draft compensation if that player signs elsewhere. The value of the compensatory pick depends on a team’s status as a revenue sharing recipient and/or whether they paid the luxury tax in 2022. That’s also true of the draft choices and potentially international signing bonus space a team would have to forfeit to sign a qualified free agent from another team.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the forfeiture each team would have to surrender to sign a qualified free agent earlier this month. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked at the compensation each club would receive if one of these players signed elsewhere.

The Opener: QO Deadline, Rule 5 Deadline, Manager Of The Year

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As the offseason continues to roll along, here are three things we’ll be watching throughout the day today:

1. Qualifying Offer Decisions Due Today

The 14 players who received qualifying offers must either accept or decline the offer by 3:00p, central time this afternoon. While most of these players will make the easy and obvious decision to reject the QO, a few players have a more interesting decision on their hands. Rangers lefty Martin Perez is an example of someone who may accept a QO, though he joins Red Sox righty Nathan Eovaldi as someone who is in negotiations with his 2022 club on a multi-year deal, which could be ironed out in place of the one-year, $19.65MM QO contract. Such a deal could even occur after this deadline as passed, as was the case for Jose Abreu and the White Sox after the 2019 season. Giants outfielder Joc Pederson, Dodgers lefty Tyler Anderson and Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo are among the other candidates to accept the offer, though Rizzo has already reportedly drawn strong interest from the Astros even in spite of his QO.

2. Rule 5 Deadline Looms This Evening

Teams must set their 40-man rosters in advance of the upcoming Rule 5 Draft by 5:00pm central time this evening. Seeing as there was no major league phase of the Rule 5 Draft last offseason, teams will have more prospects than usual in need of protection, potentially resulting in a larger roster crunch than usual for many teams. The Rays have already made a pair of moves to clear roster space, and are expected to make more trades before the deadline tonight. While they may be among the most active teams today, it’s safe to say most teams will be making roster moves throughout the day leading up to this evening’s deadline.

3. Manager Of The Year Results Announced Tonight

Awards season continues tonight with the AL and NL Manager of the Year awards being announced this evening. In the AL, Terry Francona of the Guardians, Brandon Hyde of the Orioles, and Scott Servais of the Mariners are the finalists, while in the NL, it’ll be either Brian Snitker of the Braves, Dave Roberts of the Dodgers, or Buck Showalter of the Mets. Each finalist has an interesting case for the award to set themselves apart from the rest of the field. Francona’s Guardians achieved a surprise division title, overtaking the favored White Sox and Twins despite an extremely young roster and a far lower payroll than either of their division rivals. Hyde and the Orioles, despite not making the postseason, also massively overperformed expectations, staying in the postseason hunt through most of September after years of 100 loss seasons. Servais, meanwhile, led a Mariners club that ended the longest active playoff drought in the sport, bringing playoff baseball back to Seattle for the first time since 2001. Roberts and the Dodgers delivered a monster 111-win season that stands among the best in history, while Buck Showalter returned to the dugout to lead the Mets to a 100-win season of their own. Snitker, meanwhile, makes his case through Atlanta’s impressive September in which they ran down Showalter’s Mets for the division title. Results will be announced at 5:00pm central time this evening.

Astros Prioritizing Anthony Rizzo In First Base Search

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The defending World Series champions head into the offseason without many holes on the roster, but first base is a notable exception. The Astros got just a .235/.285/.371 showing from the bat-first position this past season, and they’ve seen both Yuli Gurriel and Trey Mancini hit the open market.

With J.J. Matijevic and Yainer Díaz standing as the primary in-house options at the start of the offseason, the Astros are virtually certain to add first base help in some capacity. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports Houston has set its sights on Anthony Rizzo as its top free agent target at the position. Rosenthal writes they’ve also expressed some interest in José Abreu and Gurriel as potential fallbacks.

Rizzo is back on the free agent market for the second straight offseason, although he’s facing a key decision in the first few days this time around. The Yankees tagged the left-handed hitter with a qualifying offer last week, just days after Rizzo declined a $16MM player option. Rizzo and his representatives at Sports One Athlete Management have until tomorrow at 4:00 pm EST to decide whether to accept that $19.65MM offer from New York or to turn it down — presumably in search of a multi-year pact.

Of course, the Yankees are among the most direct competitors to the Astros atop the American League. Houston and New York were top two in the Junior Circuit in regular season record and met in the AL Championship Series this year. The Astros handily controlled the Yankees in the postseason, but Rosenthal suggests the opportunity to poach a key bat from New York would be an added bonus for Houston as they try to remain atop the perch.

Doing so would require forfeiting a draft choice, as Rizzo would have to reject the Yankees’ QO to sign with Houston. The Astros neither paid the luxury tax nor received revenue sharing payments this year, so they’d be stripped of their second-highest pick in the 2023 draft and $500K in international signing bonus space to sign a qualified free agent. The Yankees would receive a compensatory pick if Rizzo signed elsewhere, but that selection would only come after the fourth round since New York did surpass the CBT threshold this year.

It seems far likelier the Yankees would prefer to see Rizzo stick around for another season than to collect that modest compensation, although it remains to be seen whether the first baseman’s camp will feel he could top the terms of the qualifying offer. Rizzo signed a two-year, $32MM guarantee (with the aforementioned opt-out capability) last winter coming off a .248/.344/.440 showing. He had a more impressive .224/.338/.480 line this year, matching a career-high with 32 home runs. It’d be understandable if Rizzo were looking to beat last winter’s deal building off a better platform season, but he’s now 33 years old and would require teams forfeiting a draft choice to sign him this time around — or, in the Yankees’ case, relinquishing the chance at a compensatory pick were they to bring him back.

Aside from Rizzo, the top free agent first basemen available are Abreu and Josh Bell. Neither player was eligible for a qualifying offer this winter, but each could prove more costly than Rizzo. Even after a down second half, Bell looks likely to land a three or four-year deal heading into his age-30 season off a .266/.362/.422 showing between the Nationals and Padres. Abreu is soon to be 36 and will be limited to shorter-term offers, but he hit .304/.378/.446 with the White Sox and could land the largest per-year salary of anyone in the first base class.

Gurriel and Mancini are among the lower-tier options, with the former having been a career-long member of the organization. Gurriel was the AL batting champion as recently as 2021, but he mustered only a .242/.288/.360 regular season showing this year before an excellent 12-game run in the playoffs. Mancini looks less likely to be back after struggling with the Astros following a deadline trade from the Orioles. Houston could also look to the trade market if they come up empty in free agency. They reportedly were in contact with the Rays about Ji-Man Choi before he was dealt to Pittsburgh, while Rhys Hoskins, Rowdy Tellez and Joey Meneses are among speculative trade candidates.

Hanging over all the Astros’ early offseason interest is a lack of front office clarity. After the team parted ways with general manager James Click last week, the team is without a presently stable baseball operations hierarchy. Owner Jim Crane is known to have taken an active role in the team’s decision-making, while Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reported over the weekend that assistant GM Andrew Ball and senior director of baseball strategy Bill Firkus were handling day-to-day operations.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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14 players received qualifying offers this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The list is as follows:

As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer a team can make to impending free agents. Players who have previously received a QO in their careers and/or didn’t spend the entire preceding season with one team cannot receive a qualifying offer. The value of the offer is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB. For the 2022-23 offseason, it is set at $19.65MM.

If a player accepts the QO, he returns to his current team for next season on that salary. If he declines, the team would receive compensation if he were to sign elsewhere. The specific compensation depends on the team’s status as both a luxury tax payor and whether they receive revenue sharing payments. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at the compensation each team would receive for losing a qualified free agent last week.

Signing a player who refuses a QO from another team requires the signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space. As with compensation for losing qualified free agents, the specific nature of the forfeiture is dependent on revenue sharing status and the competitive balance tax.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

The majority of players who receive qualifying offers decline them each offseason. Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, deGrom, Swanson, Rodón, Nimmo, Contreras and Bassitt were always virtual locks to receive a QO. They’ll assuredly turn them down and sign multi-year contracts, either with their incumbent teams or other clubs. Rejecting a qualifying offer, to be clear, does not affect a player’s ability to continue negotiating with his previous team.

Rizzo, Anderson and Pérez were all more borderline QO candidates, although reports in recent days had suggested each was likely to receive the offer. There’s a case for all three players in that group to accept, although their representatives will have five days to gauge the market before making that decision. Pérez has reportedly received a two-year offer from Texas. The sides have long expressed mutual interest in agreement, but they’ve yet to come to terms on a longer deal.

The final two qualified free agents come as more surprising developments. Eovaldi always looked like a borderline QO candidate. He recently wrapped up a four-year, $68MM contract with the Red Sox. The right-hander was generally effective over the life of that deal, but his 2022 campaign was more of a mixed bag. Shoulder and back injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings. His 3.87 ERA over that stretch was right in line with his 2020-21 marks, but his strikeout rate dropped a few points to a league average 22.4%. Eovaldi’s fastball also dipped slightly from siting just under 97 MPH down to 95.7 MPH, but that’s still plenty impressive velocity. Paired with his elite strike-throwing ability and the Red Sox’s need for rotation help, they’d be content to bring the 32-year-old back for just under $20MM if he accepted the QO.

The most surprising qualifying offer recipient, however, is Pederson. San Francisco signed the outfielder to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter after an up-and-down 2021 campaign with the Cubs and Braves. The left-handed slugger responded with an excellent .274/.353/.521 showing, connecting on 23 home runs in 433 plate appearances. Pederson also posted elite batted ball marks, including a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity that’s around five MPH above league average. He also made hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) on a career-best 52.1% of his balls in play.

That figured to give 30-year-old a strong shot at a multi-year offer, although it’s still surprising to see the Giants offer him nearly $20MM to return. Pederson played left field in Oracle Park, but he rated as 12 runs below average over 685 innings in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. He’s consistently posted subpar defensive marks and is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter. The Giants also shielded him against southpaws, limping him to 57 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

Some notable players who were eligible for a qualifying offer but did not receive one include Jameson Taillon, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha. That group will all hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation, which should be a boost to their free agent stocks.

Of the crop of QO recipients, Pederson looks likeliest to accept, although it’s possible that anyone in the group turns the offer down if their reps find interest over multi-year pacts. Players have until the evening of November 15 to determine whether to accept or turn down the QO.

Yankees To Make Qualifying Offer To Anthony Rizzo

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The Yankees are expected to make a one-year, $19.65MM qualifying offer to first baseman Anthony Rizzo, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Qualifying offers are due Thursday of this week. Rizzo will then have 10 days to gauge interest around the league before determining whether to accept or decline his QO. If he accepts, he’ll be considered signed as a free agent (and thus unable to be traded until June 15, 2023, without his consent). If he rejects the QO, he’ll become a free agent but will be tied to draft pick compensation — meaning a new team would need to surrender a pick(s) in next summer’s draft in order to sign him.

For Rizzo, declining his $16MM player option was a straightforward decision, even if he hopes to remain in the Bronx. Declining the option put the onus on the team to make this offer — which represents a $3.65MM raise over what he’d have earned by exercising the player option. And, had the team unexpectedly opted not to put forth a QO, he’d surely have been able to earn more than the year and $16MM value of his player option as a free agent with no draft strings attached.

Similarly, it’s an obvious call for the Yankees to make. Rizzo hit .224/.338/.480 and tied a career-high 32 home runs in just 548 plate appearances with the Yankees this past season. That .224 average was obviously a fair bit south of the .243 leaguewide average, but Rizzo’s walk rate and power output were vastly better than that of your average big league hitter.

Rizzo also turned in a better-than-average 18.4% strikeout rate, and with some limitations on infield shifts looming in 2023, it stands to reason that Rizzo could see a few more grounders break through the right side of the infield to help him find a few more singles and boost that average next year. Based on Rizzo’s 2022 output, the Yankees would surely be content to have him accept and return at a slightly larger rate of pay.

Rizzo found a two-year, $32MM deal with an opt-out/player option in free agency this past offseason, and that was on the heels of a .248/.344/.440 campaign that was noticeably less productive than his 2022 season. Granted, he’ll now have a QO with which to contend and is a year older, but he could still parlay the offer into a new two-year deal with the Yanks that could perhaps clock in below the QO rate but at or slightly above the $16MM he’d have otherwise earned.

Teams could very well be reluctant to part with a draft pick (or picks) in order to sign a first baseman to a contract beginning with his age-33 season, but the previously mentioned 10-day window will give Rizzo and his reps the chance to determine how receptive other teams might be to such an arrangement. At the very least, Rizzo’s decision to decline his $16MM player option has netted him the opportunity to lock in an additional $3.65MM in 2023.

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