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Anthony Rendon

Dodgers Recently Met With Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon

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8:48pm: In addition to Rendon, the Dodgers have met with free-agent right-hander Stephen Strasburg, Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times reports. The Dodgers are currently set to lose Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill to free agency, and while they have internal options to replace them, adding Strasburg to the fold would represent a seismic upgrade to an already strong rotation mix.

Like Rendon, Strasburg can be reasonably expected to come with major luxury tax implications, as he’s viewed as a near-lock to secure a $30MM+ annual salary on the heels of perhaps his finest season. The former No. 1 overall pick led the National League with 209 innings and pitched to a 3.32 ERA with 10.8 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 51.1 percent ground-ball rate during the regular season, but it was the playoffs where he shined brightest.

In 36 1/3 postseason frames, Strasburg logged a 1.98 ERA with a ridiculous 47-to-4 K/BB ratio. He not only went toe-to-toe with eventual AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander in a must-win Game 6 showdown but delivered a masterful, near-complete game effort that forever cemented him in Nationals lore.

The Dodgers would be hard-pressed to sign Strasburg and remain south of the luxury tax — particularly since their previous pursuits of premier free agents have tended to feature shorter-term pacts at extremely high annual rates. Just what type of deal the Dodgers envision putting in front of Strasburg and agent Scott Boras isn’t clear, but the current iteration of the L.A. front office, under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, has yet to dole out a contract longer than five years.

10:59am: Free agent third baseman Anthony Rendon has been actively engaged with multiple teams in free agency. In addition to a sit-down with the Rangers, he has held a recent meeting with the Dodgers, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney.

It seems that other teams may also have had face-time with Rendon and agent Scott Boras, though their identities aren’t known. Intense early interest is creating the potential for a fairly quick and dramatic strike, with some unnamed execs around the game telling Olney they expect Rendon to be the first major free agent to sign — and that his new deal “could establish a record for highest annual value.”

That last note represents the latest hint that Rendon won’t be chasing the largest deal in overall value, spread over a huge term, as did former teammate Bryce Harper. Instead, he seems to be intrigued by the possibility of a shorter, higher-AAV pact that leaves him with greater flexibility. No shortage of teams would prefer that sort of arrangement as well — including, especially, the big-market Dodgers, who don’t mind plunking down premium salaries but prefer not to tie their hands too far into the future.

We had already learned of the connection between the Los Angeles outfit and Rendon, so it isn’t especially surprising to hear that they’ve taken the next step. But it’s still quite a notable news item for both team and player. On the Dodgers’ side, dedicated pursuit of Rendon would reshape their roster and payroll, with huge implications for the remainder of the winter and beyond. And for Rendon, the strong involvement of the L.A. behemoth not only opens a potentially promising opportunity, but provides ample leverage in talks with other trade partners.

So, is it down to the Dodgers and Rangers? Not so fast. We haven’t yet learned whether the Nationals will remain involved after making multiple efforts to keep Rendon from reaching free agency; that’s a realistic possibility that certainly hasn’t been ruled out. And there are quite a few other contenders that seem like plausible fits for Rendon, even at the premium price tag he seems destined to command.

Rangers Met Recently With Anthony Rendon

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The Rangers missed the playoffs for the third straight year in 2019, but with a new ballpark set to open next season, it appears they’re serious about returning to contention immediately. The Rangers gave right-handed starter Kyle Gibson a three-year, $30MM guarantee last week, though that deal could pale in comparison to the highest award they dole out this winter. The club’s in pursuit of the best free-agent position player on the market in third baseman Anthony Rendon, as it met with him and agent Scott Boras in Houston on Sunday, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. The Rangers haven’t made a contract offer yet, per Grant, but “several executives” have indicated they’re the favorites to sign him, Bob Nightengale of USA Today sports tweets.

Signing Rendon would likely mean doling out a guarantee well above $200MM, though it could help the Rangers’ cause that he’s a Texas native. Rendon’s by far the best unsigned third baseman in the game, but between their interest in him and Josh Donaldson, it’s clear the Rangers are serious about finding their first great option at the position since potential Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre retired after the 2018 season.

Texas, however, isn’t just considering a splash at the hot corner. Rather, the Rangers could pick up yet another high-profile starter even after signing Gibson. It’s “believed” that they’ve recently met with free-agent right-hander Zack Wheeler, according to Grant. Wheeler, who could cost around $100MM in free agency, would add another formidable arm to a rotation that has taken an obvious step forward with the acquisition of Gibson. Those two would presumably join Mike Minor, Lance Lynn and Kolby Allard to give the Rangers a rather imposing top five heading into 2020.

Nats Rumors: Zimmerman, Rendon, Strasburg

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We’re in the early stages of what should be a busy offseason for the Nationals. Third baseman Anthony Rendon and right-hander Stephen Strasburg stand out as the reigning champions’ top free agents, but franchise icon and first baseman Ryan Zimmerman could also be on his way out. Zimmerman discussed his future with Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post and other reporters Monday (Twitter links), when the 35-year-old suggested he’ll either re-sign with the Nationals or retire. It doesn’t seem Zimmerman will have to hang up his cleats yet, though, as Dougherty writes “it’s just a matter of ironing out the details” on a new contract.

At this point, Zimmerman may be best known as the first draft pick in the history of the Washington franchise. The club selected Zimmerman fourth overall in 2005, just months before its first season out of Montreal. Zimmerman soon evolved into a franchise player, though injuries limited his impact and helped tamp down his production in recent years. This past season, Zimmerman hit a less-than-stellar .257/.321/.415 with six home runs in 190 plate appearances, but there were moments in which he came up large during the Nats’ unexpected run through the playoffs en route to their first-ever World Series title.

If the Nationals do bring Zimmerman back, it won’t be for a bank-breaking total. He’s likely only in line for a one-year deal worth a couple million dollars. At the same time, the team’s facing the departures of free-agent first basemen Howie Kendrick and Matt Adams.

As for Rendon and Strasburg, there’s not much new to report. General manager Mike Rizzo said Monday (via Dougherty) that the club hasn’t met with agent Scott Boras, who represents both players. However, there have been discussions in regards to the two with Boras, who – according to Rizzo – “knows where they stand.”

NL Notes: Nats, Cubs, Rox, Cards

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In one of the winter’s most fascinating storylines, the Nationals face the potential loss of two more centerpiece players after bidding adieu to Bryce Harper last winter … and then winning a long-awaited crown. The D.C. organization would like to “get quick resolutions” on both Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter), rather than engaging in a protracted courtship. If it’s a fond farewell, in either situation, then the Nats would like to get on with sorting out a replacement plan. The offseason could take any number of different directions for the defending World Series champs.

More from the National League …

  • The Cubs like Nicholas Castellanos and he likes the Cubs. So … why not bring him back? Sahadev Sharma breaks down the situation for The Athletic (subscription link), explaining the many barriers to a reunion. In part it’s simply a financial issue, but there is also a legitimate dilemma in the outfield. Kyle Schwarber’s season went much like that of Castellanos, starting meekly and ending quite strong, so why replace the former with the latter? Both are bat-first players that probably shouldn’t be standing on the same outfield grass for too long. That leaves the focus on center field, per Sharma, which is where things get tricky. There are loads of other clubs facing similar situations and relatively few up-the-middle options available — particularly in free agency. It’ll be interesting to see how the Cubs sort things out, but Castellanos seems to be a bit of a mis-fitting puzzle piece — unless, perhaps, other developments intervene and his market doesn’t develop as he hopes.
  • It is still tough to gauge whether the Rockies will end up pulling off some major roster moves or simply make a few tweaks. GM Jeff Bridich and owner Dick Monfort have suggested the club will need to improve largely from within, while also expressing optimism that it can do so. But we’ve heard persistent chatter regarding possible trade scenarios involving top Colorado players — much of it speculative, to be fair. Odds are, the Rox will simply be looking for affordable, marginal improvements this winter. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post provides a transcript of Bridich’s most recent comments. Bolstering the pitching and finding a second catcher are the two goals, though it still seems those will be of modest expense. So what of the idea of trading Jon Gray? Saunders tweets that the Rockies could be open to it … if they can secure a major package involving significant prospects as well as “an established pitcher” to replace Gray. That feels unlikely to come to fruition.
  • The Cardinals have traded away a huge volume of outfield talent in recent years and have plenty of internal options at or near the majors. Yet the teams still enters the winter with a possible need in that area, as Mark Saxon of The Athletic writes (subscription link). He reasons that the team needs to add a left-handed-hitting piece and looks at a few theoretical trade possibilities. The trick is that the Cards don’t appear interested in raising payroll and all the veterans cited will not be particularly cheap. Joc Pederson ($8.5MM), David Peralta ($8.8MM), and Jackie Bradley Jr. ($11MM) probably wouldn’t require major prospect hauls to acquire, but could bust the self-imposed St. Louis budget. We actually predicted that this year’s top two left-handed-hitting free agent corner outfielders, Corey Dickerson and Kole Calhoun, would secure less annually than each of those players.

7 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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The 4pm CT deadline has passed for free agents to accept or reject qualifying offers, and seven of the 10 players issued offers have officially turned them down.  An eighth free agent, Will Smith, rejected the Giants’ qualifying offer and left the free agent market even before the deadline passed, signing a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves.  Jake Odorizzi of the Twins and Jose Abreu of the White Sox each accepted their team’s qualifying offers, and will now earn $17.8MM for the 2020 season.

Here are the seven players who rejected their former team’s one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer….

There aren’t any surprises in that list, as there wasn’t doubt that Bumgarner, Cole, Donaldson, Rendon, Strasburg, and Wheeler would forego the one-year offer in search of a much richer, multi-year commitment.  There was perhaps a bit more uncertainty surrounding Ozuna and Smith, given that Ozuna was coming off a pair of good but unspectacular years in St. Louis and Smith could perhaps have been wary of how the QO would impact his market, given what happened to another closer in Craig Kimbrel last winter.

If anything, the only real surprise occurred on the acceptance side, as Odorizzi was seen as a candidate to receive a multi-year offer before he opted to remain in Minnesota in 2020.  Abreu, on the other hand, was widely expected to remain with the White Sox in some fashion, either via the QO or perhaps a multi-year extension.  It should be noted that Odorizzi and Abreu are still free to negotiate longer-term deals with their respective teams even after accepting the qualifying offer.

Teams that sign a QO-rejecting free agent will have to give up at least one draft pick and some amount of international bonus pool money as compensation.  (Click here for the list of what each individual team would have to forfeit to sign a QO free agent).  The Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, and Braves are each in the same tier of compensation pool, so if any of their QO free agents signs elsewhere, the six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft, or roughly in the range of the 75th to 85th overall pick.  Atlanta, for instance, probably didn’t mind giving up their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft to sign Smith since the Braves have another pick coming back to their if Donaldson leaves for another club.

A total of 90 players have been issued qualifying offers since the QO system was introduced during the 2012-13 offseason, and Odorizzi and Abreu become the seventh and eighth players to accept the one-year pact.  Odorizzi and Abreu are now ineligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips into free agency, so both players won’t be tied to draft/international pool penalties if they hit the open market following the 2020 season.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand was the first to report that Donaldson turned down his QO, while ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan was the first to report on the other six names.

Latest On Rangers’ Offseason Pursuits

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The Rangers enter the winter attempting to load up on starting pitching, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes. It’s possible the club will seek to acquire three starters in some form or fashion, though GM Jon Daniels says “the number is yet to be determined.”

Just how that need will be met is awfully tough to guess at this point. We covered the club’s obvious need for multiple arms in previewing the team’s offseason situation. But as we said there, there’s such a bounty of possibility that it’s nearly impossible to pick favorites.

Daniels said as much when he chatted with the press from the GM Meetings. Beyond the “couple guys that stand out at the top” of the market, he said of this year’s free agent starters, “you can probably rank them a bunch of different ways.” The Rangers, he says, are “open to a lot of different things.”

While we don’t know whether the Rangers will gun for the elite arms, and can’t be sure who they most fancy further down the board, Wilson says the organization is aiming to land at least one “proven arm” to pair with top starters Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. In MLBTR’s top fifty free agent list, we guessed the club would come away with Hyun-jin Ryu, but we also considered the organization a plausible fit for a dozen other starters.

So, does all this talk of starting pitching mean the Rangers aren’t quite as engaged in the third base market as we predicted in the above-linked analyses? Not so much. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News explains that the club is pursuing a multi-track strategy to install a star at the hot corner.

We heard recently that the Texas organization is making a concerted push for Josh Donaldson, an older but still-excellent firebrand. But Grant says the club prefers the more youthful Texas native Anthony Rendon, who is Donaldson’s polar opposite in temperament and superior in present ability. Mike Moustakas, it seems, features as a possible backup plan.

It seems the Rangers intend to push hard on both of those premium third baggers, bidding at least until the auction price gets too steep. Presumably, this situation will tie into the pitching side, to some extent. Should the Rangers land a star, they’ll have greater cause to ensure their rotation is up to snuff. On the other hand, missing on Rendon and Donaldson would seem to leave more dry powder to work with.

Grant drops one other nugget that’s worth highlighting with regard to Donaldson. We predicted the veteran would secure a three-year guarantee at $25MM annually (and that he’d ink that deal with the Rangers). But there’s now enough market pressure, per Grant, that “there is a growing thought that to get something done quickly with him would require a fourth year or an option with a significant buyout tacked on to third year.” That’s a big ask for someone on the cusp of his 34th birthday, though Donaldson is an elite performer and we have seen four-year pacts for even older players (e.g., Ben Zobrist).

Dodgers Pursuing High-End Third Baseman

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9:05pm: Along with Donaldson, the Dodgers seem to have interest in Rendon, who’s “on their radar,” Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Rendon, like Donaldson, has to decide whether to accept his team’s qualifying offer. But the longtime Nationals star is sure to reject it, as he appears to be in line to sign a contract worth more than $200MM prior to next season. It’s not the Dodgers’ M.O. to hand out that type of deal, but if they do win the bidding for Rendon or Donaldson, Turner would be open to changing positions. He has already offered to move off third if necessary.

2:03pm: Josh Donaldson technically still has a decision to make on the qualifying offer he received from the Braves, though rejecting that $17.8MM offer is all but a formality. The Phillies, Rangers, Nationals and Braves all have some level of interest in the the former AL MVP, and Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times reports that the Dodgers, too, are considering a pursuit of the slugger.

Third base has been Justin Turner’s domain in L.A. for the past six years, but the soon-to-be 35-year-old Turner is entering the final season of a four-year, $64MM contract in 2019. Defensive metrics soured on his once-excellently rated glovework in 2019, as he registered -7 Defensive Runs Saved and a -6.7 Ultimate Zone Rating. A move across the diamond to first base, or perhaps to second base, could open space for Donaldson and give the Dodgers a more palatable defensive alignment. Donaldson will turn 34 himself next month, but he rebounded from an injury-marred 2018 campaign to post a strong year on both sides of the ball in 2019 (+15 DRS, +2.4 UZR).

Donaldson fits the free-agent mold that has become typical under Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman: a high-end player who could conceivably had on a shorter-term deal with a premium annual salary. Donaldson’s age could limit him to three years — four seems like the largest commitment a team would make — meaning interested parties could potentially add an elite talent without assuming the long-term risk that inherently accompanies many premier free agents (e.g. Anthony Rendon). In 659 plate appearances this past season, Donaldson hit .259/.379/.521 with 37 homers and 33 doubles to go along with that strong defense.

From a payroll and luxury tax vantage point, there’s room for the Dodgers to fit Donaldson into the budget — particularly since the ever-active front office is likely to make some additional moves elsewhere on the roster. The Dodgers have $91.5MM committed to Clayton Kershaw, Turner, Kenley Jansen, A.J. Pollock, Joe Kelly and Kenta Maeda, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects an additional $53MM worth of arbitration salaries — headlined by Cody Bellinger ($11.6MM), Joc Pederson ($8.5MM) and Corey Seager ($7.1MM). Including those arb projections and a slate of pre-arb players to round out the roster (plus the dead money owed to Yaisel Sierra and Hector Olivera), the Dodgers will check in around $165MM in actual payroll commitments with about $184MM against the luxury tax (using the estimate from Jason Martinez over at Roster Resource).

There’s not a ton of space between that $184MM mark and this year’s luxury tax limit of $208MM. Donaldson himself could command enough money on an annual basis to bridge that gap and put the Dodgers into penalty territory. But, the Dodgers have ample resources from which to deal in an effort to lower that number. Pederson, for instance, seems like a logical trade candidate with a relatively hefty arbitration projection and only a year of club control remaining. That’s all the more true if the Dodgers make a move that would slide Turner across the diamond to first base, as doing so would lessen the need for Bellinger to ever play first base. Bellinger, Pollock, Alex Verdugo, Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez give the Dodgers the outfield depth to explore such a move. (Hernandez or Taylor, too, could be conceivable trade assets.)

Whether Donaldson lands in L.A. or elsewhere, the Dodgers have enviable levels of defensive versatility and quite a few movable assets that are still affordable for most clubs. That should allow them to pursue value targets regardless of their defensive home, and it seemingly sets the stage for another active winter for Friedman and his staff.

Which Pick(s) Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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We looked already at the possible draft compensation that teams might recoup from losing players who decline qualifying offers. Now, we’ll take a glance at the topic from the other side of the coin: what it’ll cost other teams to sign such players.

Last week, 10 players received qualifying offers. Teams interested in signing Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Jake Odorizzi, Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Will Smith will therefore be required to forfeit draft and perhaps international bonus considerations in order to sign anyone from that bunch — assuming each of the 10 rejects that one-year, $17.8MM sum. Here’s a breakdown of the specific penalties that all 30 teams would face in signing a “qualified” free agent:

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs

If any of these three teams signs a qualified free agent, they will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest selections in next summer’s draft. They’d all also see $1MM docked from their 2020-21 international bonus pools. The Red Sox, in particular, seem more intent on shedding payroll and lowering their luxury hit than on adding a high-end free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would mean then surrendering their third- and sixth-highest selections as well as an additional $1MM in international funds.

Revenue Sharing Recipients:  Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Indians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays

These 16 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax during the 2019 season. As such, they’d forfeit “only” their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft by signing a qualified free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would require forfeiting their fourth-highest pick. A third would mean their fifth-highest pick (and so on). Revenue-sharing recipients who do not cross the luxury threshold face the smallest penalty in signing a qualified free agent.

All Other Clubs: Nationals, White Sox, Astros, Braves, Dodgers, Angels, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays

These 12 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K upon signing a qualified free agent. At 67-95, the Blue Jays had the worst record among this group, meaning it’d be most costly (in terms of amateur talent acquisition capital) for them to sign a qualified free agent. However, GM Ross Atkins has said since the season ended that such concerns won’t deter the Jays from pursuing qualified free agents.

For teams in this group, signing a second qualified free agent would mean punting next year’s third-highest selection and an additional $500K. A third would mean parting with the fourth-highest pick and another $500K (and so on).

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While those penalties surely count for something, it’s worth reminding that they’re also not as steep as some clubs like to portray. Each team’s top overall selection is protected, and the highest draft choice that’d theoretically be forfeited would be the Cardinals’ Competitive Balance (Round A) selection, which would come in after the first round and after all of the compensatory picks for these free-agent losses. Competitive Balance Round A in 2019 spanned pick Nos. 35-41, and the slot value of those selections ranged from $2.1MM (No. 35) to $1.81MM (No. 41).

With 10 QOs this year, that compensatory round will be longer. Most teams with a Competitive Balance draft pick next season (barring trades of those picks, which are the only draft choices eligible to be traded) will fall into the “revenue sharing recipient” bucket, meaning their Round A picks would be protected. If the Cardinals pass on a qualified free agent, then the Jays and their second-round pick (likely in the mid-40s) would face the largest potential penalty.

MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For Top 10 Free Agents

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MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed last night.  6,886 people entered the contest.  Below we’ve listed where our readers think each of the top 10 free agents is going.  (Curious about the wisdom of the crowd last year?  Click here).

1.  Gerrit Cole – Angels (66.7%), Yankees (15.6%), Dodgers (4.8%), Phillies (3.1%), Astros (3.0%), Padres (2.5%), Giants (1.0%)

2. Anthony Rendon – Nationals (60.1%), Rangers (16.4%), Dodgers (8.2%), Phillies (3.9%), Braves (2.3%), White Sox (1.8%), Angels (1.4%), Mets (1.1%), Cardinals (1.1%)

3.  Stephen Strasburg – Nationals (52.3%), Padres (28.4%), Yankees (5.6%), Angels (3.8%), Phillies (2.5%), Dodgers (2.1%)

4.  Zack Wheeler – Phillies (19.1%), Yankees (15.4%), Astros (10.4%), Angels (7.2%), Twins (6.8%), Padres (5.6%), Braves (5.3%), Mets (5.0%), Brewers (3.8%), White Sox (3.4%), Dodgers (2.8%), Cubs (2.4%), Rangers (2.4%), Giants (2.0%), Cardinals (1.9%), Nationals (1.7%), Red Sox (1.2%), Blue Jays (1.0%)

5.  Josh Donaldson – Braves (40.7%), Rangers (24.1%), Phillies (9.6%), Nationals (5.4%), Cardinals (4.9%), Brewers (3.5%), Angels (2.3%), Mets (1.8%), White Sox (1.3%)

6.  Madison Bumgarner – Braves (39.3%), Giants (11.4%), Twins (10.2%), Yankees (7.1%), Phillies (5.6%), Brewers (3.6%), Padres (3.5%), Angels (3.2%), Cardinals (2.8%), Rangers (2.5%), Astros (2.4%), Cubs (1.5%), Nationals (1.3%), White Sox (1.1%), Dodgers (1.1%)

7.  Yasmani Grandal – Reds (28.9%), Brewers (18.1%), Braves (7.3%), Mets (6.9%), Angels (6.4%), Astros (6.2%), White Sox (5.6%), Rangers (3.5%), Nationals (3.4%), Rays (1.6%), Dodgers (1.5%), Cubs (1.4%), Red Sox (1.2%), Rockies (1.1%), Padres (1.0%)

8.  Nicholas Castellanos – White Sox (30.7%), Cubs (23.8%), Indians (6.6%), Giants (4.4%), Rangers (4.3%), Marlins (3.3%), Angels (2.8%), Cardinals (2.7%), Reds (2.2%), Rays (2.1%), Diamondbacks (1.9%), Blue Jays (1.7%), Brewers (1.4%), Mets (1.4%), Twins (1.3%), Phillies (1.2%), Braves (1.2%), Padres (1.1%)

9.  Hyun-Jin Ryu – Dodgers (46.5%), Rangers (8.7%), Angels (6.2%), Yankees (5.8%), Twins (4.5%), Padres (3.9%), Phillies (3.7%), Mariners (2.8%), Brewers (2.6%), Giants (2.5%), Astros (1.8%), Cubs (1.6%), Braves (1.4%), Cardinals (1.1%)

10.  Jake Odorizzi – Twins (43.5%), Brewers (6.2%), Phillies (5.3%), Astros (3.9%), Yankees (3.4%), Angels (3.4%), Cardinals (3.2%), White Sox (3.1%), Rangers (3.0%), Cubs (2.7%), Padres (2.5%), Blue Jays (2.2%), Mets (2.1%), Braves (1.8%), Nationals (1.6%), Giants (1.6%), Rays (1.5%), Athletics (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.3%), Dodgers (1.1%), Red Sox (1.1%)

Draft Compensation For 8 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

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Eight teams issued qualifying offers this year to ten players, with the Nationals and Giants handing out two apiece. Teams issuing the $17.8MM offer must be comfortable with the receiving player accepting, as it isn’t possible to trade such a player (absent consent) until the middle of the season. But in most cases, the offer is given with the expectation it will be declined, thus allowing the issuing team to receive a compensatory draft selection if the player signs with a new club.

As with draft forfeitures, draft compensation is largely tied to the financial status of the team losing the player. And in 2019, seven of the eight teams that issued qualifying offers fall into the same bucket: teams that neither exceeded the luxury threshold nor received revenue-sharing benefits. This applies to the Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, White Sox and Braves. In such cases, the default compensation for losing a qualified free agent is applied.

In other words, if any of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Zack Wheeler, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Josh Donaldson signs with a new club, their former team will receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the 2020 draft. Those selections would likely fall in the upper 70s and low 80s. Slot values in that range of the 2019 draft checked in between $730K and $700K. The Nationals and Giants, then, could add a pair of Top 100 picks and roughly $1.5MM worth of additional pool money each if they lose both of their qualified free agents.

The lone team that stands to gain a potential pick at the end of the first round would be the Twins, who issued a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. Minnesota is a revenue-sharing recipient that did not exceed the luxury threshold, thus entitling the Twins to the highest level of free-agent compensation possible … if Odorizzi signs for a guaranteed $50MM or more. If Odorizzi’s total guarantees are $49.9MM or lower, the Twins would receive the same level of pick as the other seven teams who issued qualifying offers: between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3.

Of course, if any of the players who received qualifying offers either accept the offer or re-sign with their 2019 clubs on a new multi-year deal, no draft compensation will be awarded to that team at all.

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