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Anthony Rendon

Dodgers “Pessimistic” On Rendon, Still Talking Lindor With Indians

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2:31pm: While the likelihood of an arrangement isn’t known, the Dodgers are engaged in “serious” and ongoing talks with the Indians regarding star shortstop Francisco Lindor, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The report suggests that the Cleveland organization wants a prospect package that includes top talents Gavin Lux and Dustin May, each of whom reached the majors late last year. Whether the demand is for both to be included isn’t entirely clear.

2:00pm: The Dodgers are increasingly “pessimistic” as to their chances of striking a deal with top remaining free agent Anthony Rendon, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The L.A. org just missed out on Gerrit Cole and could now see its other major target slip away.

What’s the mean for the market on Rendon? Rosenthal reiterates several other recent reports indicating that the Nationals are unlikely to bring back their star third bagger. The Rangers and Angels appear to be the leading contenders to secure the services of the smooth-swinging 29-year-old.

As for the Dodgers, if indeed they fall out of the Rendon bidding they’ll presumably keep moving down the line of options. The club is said to have interest in Josh Donaldson, Madison Bumgarner, and several other possible free agent and trade targets.

Latest On Rangers’ Third Base, Catching Targets

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The Rangers cleared a bit of payroll yesterday that could further their campaign to host Anthony Rendon’s Texas homecoming. But that pursuit is hardly certain to be a successful one. The organization needs to consider backup plans at the hot corner while also chasing down other desired upgrades.

While Rendon’s Lone Star roots surely don’t hurt, the Rangers can’t count on a local discount. Agent Scott Boras indicated to reporters yesterday that geography isn’t going to be an “overriding consideration” for his client, as MLB.com’s TR Sullivan was among those to cover (Twitter link). That hardly takes the club out of contention — state tax advantages are still a factor and the ties may still matter on the margins — but it serves to highlight that the Rangers won’t necessarily come away with their top target.

If Rendon decides not to help christen Globe Life Field and the Rangers can’t circle back to land their other top potential match in Josh Donaldson, the possibilities look quite a bit less appealing. But the Texas organization would at least have plenty of powder dry to spend elsewhere. And it could put its third base opening to use to pursue upside.

Should the Rangers turn to the rest of the market, Maikel Franco could be a fall back option, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. Franco did manage a serviceable 105 wRC+ as recently as 2018. In the absence of a more thrilling alternative, Franco would at least deliver a chance of liberating unrealized potential for a team with a chance of achieving “upstart” status in 2020. Still, Franco appears even less likely to make the leap than Nomar Mazara, the Rangers’ own underdeveloped star, shipped to Chicago yesterday.

Franco would certainly come cheaper than Rendon, for good cause, as Rendon’s superstar turn emerged in the national spotlight upon winning a World Series title – while Franco produced a career worst -0.8 bWAR before an inelegant end to his Philadelphia tenure via non-tender. Nick Solak is the nominal incumbent, but he can move around the diamond depending on who GM Jon Daniels adds to their collection of quasi-ill-fitting position players.

Not much further down Daniels’ checklist? Finding an offensively capable option behind the plate, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star Telegram. The Rangers have some interest in a reunion with Robinson Chirinos and have also been connected to fellow top-remaining free agent Jason Castro. But the club still faces competition for these and other backstops.

It’s tough to imagine the club will fail to come away with a new option to supplement the existing group of backstops. Jose Trevino ended the year on a high note and should compete for a roster spot. Jeff Mathis returns as well, the definition of a glove-first player in its extreme after a truly woeful .158/.209/.224 across his 248 player appearances in 2019. Depending on Trevino’s development and their ability to add to third wheel, the Rangers are open to using the new 26th roster spot to hold a third catcher. Trevino has an option remaining, however, so that’s not a necessity, and at 37 in March, Mathis’ playing days are likely nearing an end. Of course, they also have Isiah Kiner-Falefa on the roster serving as a third catcher/utility option, and they added former Tampa Bay Ray Nick Ciuffo to the Triple-A ranks. Ciuffo, in the mold of Mathis, is a strong receiver who has yet to hit his stride at the plate. 25 in March, Ciuffo is the youngest of the three primary catchers by a few years, while Kiner-Falefa turns 25 just a few weeks after Ciuffo.

The Rangers have other irons in the fire, too. As Wilson reports, the club is working on lining up some minor-league pacts of note. Daniels indicates that the club believes it’ll be able to bring back a few pitchers — lefty Jeffrey Springs and righties Matt Bush and Edinson Volquez — on non-roster contracts.

Anthony Rendon Rumors: 12/10/19

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3:50pm: Agent Scott Boras says that teams with interest in Rendon have indicated a clear willingness to go to seven years, as Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times was among those to cover on Twitter. “Every club has him in an appropriate level, in the seven-year range,” says Boras. “It’s pretty consistent.”

2:23pm: The Braves have also “checked in” on the market for Rendon, Heyman tweets. But it does not sound as if they initial price indications were within range of what the Atlanta organization was willing to consider.

10:52am: The Angels have joined the mix for star free agent third baseman Anthony Rendon, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Just how involved the club isn’t known, but Heyman says the Halos have at least “expressed interest.”

Yesterday’s blockbuster Stephen Strasburg deal may have shaken things up for his former teammate. That deal seemingly makes a D.C. return less likely for Rendon. It also removed a major fallback possibility for the Angels as they attempt to lure Gerrit Cole to Anaheim.

Whether this Halos-Rendon connection relates to the Strasburg move isn’t known. But it does open another possible door for an organization that is desperate to capitalize on the rare opportunity it has to win with the game’s greatest player and a host of other players with sky-high ceilings.

It’s yet more good news for Rendon, who has no shortage of viable landing spots even if his former team doesn’t pursue him with quite as much zeal. Rendon appears to be the apple of the Rangers’ eye and has also been targeted by the Dodgers and Phillies.

Nationals “Ready To Pivot” To Josh Donaldson

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The Nationals are “ready to pivot” to Josh Donaldson as an alternative at third base, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. It’s a longstanding connection, but the circumstances have shifted of late.

If this report is read most expansively, it might suggest that the Nats have all but given up their pursuit of Anthony Rendon, the superstar they drafted and helped to develop into one of the game’s best players. But the organization has been unwilling to rule out that possibility in the wake of the re-signing of Stephen Strasburg.

At minimum, it sounds as if the Nationals believe they’re likely to need a replacement for Rendon as he continues to draw suitors. That’s an awfully tall order, but the club certainly isn’t lowering its standards with its reported targets to date. In addition to considering Donaldson, the Nats are also said to have checked in on the trade availability of Kris Bryant.

If indeed the Nats do make a full-court press for Donaldson, they’ll need to stand out among several other contenders for his services. The division-rival Braves and Phillies are among them, along with the Dodgers, Rangers, and perhaps others. With loads of market appetite and a relative dearth of alternatives, particularly now that Mike Moustakas has signed with the Reds as a second baseman, Donaldson is seen as increasingly likely to command a four-year deal.

The Nationals have proven time and again that they’ll pay top dollar for free agents. In addition to the deals they got done, the club heavily pursued players such as Jason Heyward and Yoenis Cespedes. Whether they’ll come away with Donaldson can’t be known at the moment, but dedicated involvement from the D.C. organization is unquestionably a boon to his earning power.

NL East Rumblings: Rendon, Nats, Martinez, Cespedes, Mets, Hatcher

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Now that Stephen Strasburg has been re-signed to an expectations-shattering $245MM contract, it doesn’t seem like the Nationals could manage another mega-deal to bring back Anthony Rendon…or could they?  Both Nats GM Mike Rizzo and agent Scott Boras (who represents both Rendon and Strasburg) told MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman and other reporters that the third baseman could still potentially return to Washington, despite owner Mark Lerner’s recent comments about his club not being able to afford both free agents.  “Well, when you look at those comments, and then you look at the structure of this particular deal and the structure of deals we’ve had getting up to where we are right now, I think that Mark realizes that there’s ways to fit players in,” Rizzo said, in reference to the deferral-heavy nature of both Strasburg’s contract and several other major Nats contracts in recent years.

Boras also spoke of how Strasburg “directed me to negotiate and create a value, a fair-market value for him, but also a structure that allowed the team to continue at a championship level.”  Naturally, it wouldn’t be good business for Boras to create any impression that a wealthy suitor had dropped out of the running for Rendon, though the fact that he has had such a long history of negotiating deals with the Nationals perhaps gives his comments some added weight.  “I think when you go to do these contracts — in fairness to Mark and everyone else — is you really don’t know what can be done inside a contract to create opportunities so that aspects of the team can be looked at a little differently than was even anticipated,” Boras said.

More rumblings from around the NL East…

  • Not that a World Series-winning manager should necessarily be worried about job security, but Dave Martinez tells NBC Sports Washington’s Todd Dybas that he isn’t concerned about entering the final guaranteed year of his contract.  The Nationals hold a club option on Martinez for the 2021 season, though just making through 2020 would make Martinez (somewhat incredibly) the first person to manage three full seasons for the Nats since the club moved from Montreal prior to the 2005 season.  Martinez didn’t give any indication of extension talks, though even with the Nationals’ unusual history of managerial hirings and firings, it looks like stability might have finally come to the dugout.
  • Yoenis Cespedes is hoping to return to the field in 2020, and Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen told reporters (including MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo) that the outfielder has begun throwing and running programs.  A series of leg injuries forced Cespedes to miss the entire 2019 season, and limited him to just 119 games in 2017-18.  Naturally, Van Wagenen was cautious about the possibility of a comeback for the outfielder, saying “We have to be smart and not assume anything from anyone and try to create talent on our roster and try to create impact.  If he’s at his best, he’s a high-impact performer.  We’ll have to see how that plays out.”
  • In other news from Van Wagenen’s media briefing, he said finding depth for both the rotation or bullpen is a main focus for the Mets.  The club may also look at adding a backup infielder and backup catcher.  The latter could spell some trouble for current backup catcher Tomas Nido, who was one of the game’s better defensive catchers in 2019 but hasn’t shown any hitting prowess during his three MLB seasons (albeit over only 244 career plate appearances).
  • The Marlins have hired Billy Hatcher as the team’s new first base coach, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports.  Hatcher brings 21 years of coaching experience to Miami, after long stints with both the Rays (1998-2005) and Reds (2006-18).  Trey Hillman will move from first base coach across the diamond to coach third base next season, to accommodate Hatcher.  In other Marlins staff news, assistant hitting coach Eric Duncan has been promoted to hitting coach.

Winter Meetings Preview: The Dodgers’ Infield

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The Los Angeles Dodgers have unsurprisingly been asked about the availability of Gavin Lux, the Dodgers’ minor league player of the year for 2019. Thus far, understandably, suitors have been turned away, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman. Granted, this isn’t shocking news in and of itself, but it is telling of the Dodgers’ mindset on the eve of the winter meetings.

Lux, 22, is coming off a monster season that saw him hulk out for a .347/.421/.607 line in 113 games across Double-A and Triple-A (which included a monstrous-even-for-the-PCL .719 SLG and 188 wRC+ in 49 games in Triple-A). He didn’t disappoint in a cup of coffee with the big league club, holding his own at .240/.305/.400 in 23 games of uneven playing time. He proved capable enough to make the playoff roster and earn the start in games 2 and 4 in the NLDS versus the Nationals.

It’s not surprising that the Dodgers would make a point to hang onto the young star, but doing so doesn’t exactly jibe with their rumored interest in free agent Anthony Rendon. Justin Turner has made clear his openness to moving around the diamond, and while it’s certainly nice to be reminded that chivalry is not yet dead, it’s not obvious where Turner would move if the Dodgers are indeed intent on making Lux a part of their core moving forward.

A Corey Seager trade could open a spot with Lux taking over at short, Max Muncy taking full-time duties at second and Turner moving to first. Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, and NL MVP Cody Bellinger are capable of filling in around the infield as needed. But as good as Rendon is, Seager himself was a 4.0 bWAR player in 2019, and it would seem that the Seager/Lux/Muncy/Bellinger/Taylor/Hernandez/Turner septet already provides the perfect amount of wholesale injury coverage and star power. Swapping in Rendon for Seager cuts their shortstop options by one, and while they’d still probably be two injuries away from any real panic, it’s still a little hard to fathom why swapping in Rendon and his presumably monstrous contract makes sense – unless the goal is simply to keep the development train moving by restocking the lower levels via trade.

They could certainly sign Rendon – or Josh Donaldson, for that matter – and shop one of their other infielders, but there’s not a natural fit on that front either. Turner and Muncy have been central figures to the culture and success of the Dodgers in recent seasons, and it’s frankly jarring to imagine either one suiting up elsewhere. Moving Taylor or Hernandez neither frees up at-bats nor brings back a significant prospect haul.

The logical conclusion is that the Dodgers’ interest in Rendon is probably more smoke than fire. President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman has made a point of avoiding lavish and reactionary spending, and a Rendon signing would appear to qualify as both. Luxury tax estimates (per Roster Resource) peg the Dodgers at around $176MM for the upcoming season, which would make it difficult to fit Rendon under the tax line. Their longer-term financial picture is more flexible, however, with only ~$93MM on the books for 2021 and ~$33MM the year after.

The Dodgers did suffer a particularly tough playoff defeat in 2019, and after seven years of making the playoffs and coming home without a ring, it’s fair to wonder if the disciplined roster building that’s become the brand of these Los Angeles Dodgers might finally break under the strain of those playoff defeats. Andrew Friedman is also one of the more creative thinkers in the game and if there’s a way to make this work, he’s sure to find it. But it’s also not hard to see why they’d keep on keeping on with business as usual.

Winter Meetings Preview: Rangers, Rockies

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In advance of the winter meetings, let’s take a moment to quickly preview a couple teams out west…

  • The Texas Rangers have their sights laser-focused on Anthony Rendon, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Recent additions have more-or-less locked their rotation class, with Kolby Allard, Joe Palumbo and Brock Burke looking like the 5 through 7 options behind Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles. Should prices drop on starters like Dallas Keuchel or Hyun-Jin Ryu, the Rangers could add further pitching in the right deal and potentially explore flipping Lynn or Minor, tweets Grant, though that’s less a strategy and more of the “open to anything” ethos employed by most front offices. Otherwise, the group of internal candidates, if expanded, would include Taylor Hearn and Tyler Phillips, plus any vets they are able to grab on minor league deals in the mold of Edinson Volquez (though Volquez himself is more likely ticketed for the pen if he makes the team). The Rangers reportedly offered Zack Wheeler a $100MM contract before he signed with Philadelphia, so the pursestrings have been loosed. For now, however, they’re stuck in traffic waiting to see if the “Adrian Beltre treatment” can sell Rendon on playing the latter half of his career in Arlington. 
  • The Colorado Rockies need for starting pitching is clear, but they are highly unlikely to walk away from the winter meetings with a new arm atop their rotation, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Irrespective of the financial crunch – which is significant and detailed in MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook – the history of Coors Field continues to scare away free agent pitchers. Not to mention, the haunted past of big-ticket hurlers signed by past regimes in Colorado is no less an impediment to building through free agency. Denny Neagle, Mike Hampton, and Darryl Kile can all profess their tale of woe, but Kile’s case is particularly damning given the success he enjoyed in St. Louis once freed from Coors. Speculatively speaking, the Rockies aversion/inability to add frontline pitching via free agency could be a factor in their bearish resistance to trading Jon Gray. If internal development is the only path to roster improvement, trading a talent like Gray would be an even greater white-flag move than under most circumstances.

Market Chatter: Rangers/Rendon, Nats Spending, Betts, Hill, Maldonado

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The Rangers feel like they’re in solid position on star third baseman Anthony Rendon, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan writes. It appears as if the possibility of a shorter deal at a premium AAV might hold some appeal to the Rangers as well as Rendon. But it’s tough to gauge the likelihood that he’ll land in Texas. Per Sullivan, the sides have yet to launch “serious negotiations” on the price tag. You can be sure that Scott Boras will not rush into a signing if he feels competition can drive the price up yet further, so there’s likely some market development yet to come.

More recent chatter …

  • Agent Scott Boras expressed skepticism regarding the Nationals’ recent declaration that they can’t afford both Rendon and Stephen Strasburg. The super-agent tells Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) that he sees ample capacity for the D.C. organization, which has done quite a lot of business with Boras over the years (to mutual satisfaction, for the most part). Britt Ghiroli provides further assessment of the situation in another Athletic piece, proffering a sensible distinction between what the club can do and what it prefers. As she points out, too, it’s also possible that owner Mark Lerner made the comments to buttress his bargaining position. And it’s probably fair to add that the Nats have generally not shied from carrying big payrolls and making large commitments in the recent past.
  • Also skeptical? Rival executives, regarding the likelihood of the Red Sox trading Mookie Betts, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). That’s really not surprising to hear, though the reasoning offered by Nightengale’s sources is a bit confounding. The issue, he says, is that rival clubs won’t offer all that much for the outstanding outfielder. They “can simply wait until he’s a free agent next winter” rather than taking on a big salary and giving up valuable prospects. That seems to miss the point in large part, as a team acquiring Betts now would be doing so specifically to pick up his highly valuable age-27 season. Renting one of the game’s best players would obviously alter a team’s outlook for the coming season rather drastically; it stands to reason it’d cost something to do so.
  • Lefty Rich Hill has not only drawn wide interest despite major elbow surgery … it seems he’s open to considering offers from all teams, so long as they have hopes of winning in 2020. In an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link), Hill says he’s not focused solely on his two preferred landing spots (the Dodgers and Red Sox). While it seems that he’d still rather end up in one of those two places, the veteran says that they “might not work out.” He’s open to considering other contenders. And Hill left no doubt that he anticipates playing a big role in the 2020 season, saying he hopes to be ready to roll by June.
  • The Angels are planning to sit down with backstop Martin Maldonado at the Winter Meetings, per Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter). That’s not especially portentous news, as Fletcher points out, as teams hold many such meetings this time of year. Still, it’s a notable connection, particularly since the catching market has developed on a relatively rapid timetable. The 33-year-old Maldonado spent on the Halos roster in 2017 and 2018, so the organization is plenty familiar with him.

Phillies To Pursue Anthony Rendon

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The Phillies are preparing to make a run at free agent third baseman Anthony Rendon, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. He’s now the team’s top priority, per the report.

If there was any doubt as to the Phillies’ all-in intentions after they inked Zack Wheeler, this would seem to resolve it. The organization had spoken of its disinclination to part with draft compensation to land free agents. But having done so for Wheeler, adding another qualifying offer-declining free agent would actually cost less in draft capital.

Should the sides end up seeing eye to eye on a contract, Rendon would be following Bryce Harper in a dramatic trip north on I-95. It’s not difficult to see the match on paper. Rendon is an exceptional all-around player who’d fill the void at the hot corner for the Phils. The team grew tired of waiting for Maikel Franco to establish himself there and isn’t inclined to sit on its hands until top prospect Alec Bohm is ready.

Plenty of other teams (the incumbent Nationals among them) would likewise love to slot Rendon in at third base. He’s being courted by a variety of organizations. Rumors persist that Rendon would be interested in a somewhat shorter, higher-AAV contract — the precise opposite of the angle Harper took. Whether that sort of arrangement would suit the Philadelphia club’s needs isn’t known.

What is clear is that the involvement of the Phillies only serves to buttress Rendon’s market. Entering the winter, we predicted a $235MM guarantee over seven years. It seems that Rendon does indeed have that kind of earning power, even if he ultimately elects to take a shorter contract with greater single-season salaries.

Nats Owner Lerner: “We Really Can Only Afford To Have One Of” Rendon Or Strasburg

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Nationals principal owner Mark Lerner expressed doubt about his franchise’s ability to re-sign both Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg this offseason, as Lerner told NBC Sports Washington’s Donald Dell. (Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington has early details about the interview, which will take air in full on Dell’s show on December 17.)

“We really can only afford to have one of those two guys,” Lerner said.  “They’re huge numbers. We already have a really large payroll to begin with….We’re pursuing them, we’re pursuing other free agents in case they decided to go elsewhere.  Again, it’s not up to us.  We can give them a great offer — which we’ve done to both of those players.  They’re great people.  We’d be delighted if they stay.  But it’s not up to us, it’s up to them.  That’s why they call it free agency.”

MLBTR’s ranking of the winter’s top 50 free agents (which, incidentally, predicted both Rendon and Strasburg would wind up back in D.C.) projected Rendon for a seven-year, $235MM deal and Strasburg for six years and $180MM.  That works out to a little more than $63.57MM in average annual value if the Nationals were to land both players at those projected prices, and since Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez estimates the Nats’ current luxury tax number at just under $135.32MM, that would bring the total to roughly $199MM.

This leaves Washington with some wiggle room under the $208MM luxury tax threshold to add more roster upgrades beyond only Rendon and Strasburg, though surpassing the tax threshold seemingly wouldn’t be a problem since the Nats were willing to pay the tax in both 2017 and 2018.  By ducking under the threshold last season, the Nationals would again be charged at the “first-timer” rate of a 20 percent tax on the overage of any payroll that falls between $208-$228MM.  Since Adam Eaton, Anibal Sanchez, Sean Doolittle, and Kurt Suzuki could all come off the books after the 2020 season, the Nationals could potentially even get back under the 2021 threshold ($210MM) or at worst pay another minimal penalty by staying within the $210-$230MM range.

Of course, the Nats would further shave more money off their payroll with other moves, or Rendon and Strasburg could also end up costing more money than our projected figures.  But, strictly speaking, there isn’t any real financial barrier preventing the club from re-signing both players.  Lerner’s declaration could be something of a tactic, Dybas writes, since it would be “poor negotiating” to “flatly state the organization is going to find a way to pay both….Being in between serves multiple needs: It keeps the door open on each player; it stirs the market without roiling it; it prepares fans for an outcome they don’t prefer.”

While the Nationals haven’t been afraid to spend big on free agents or player salaries in general, they face a unique situation in having two star players (both represented by the same agent, Scott Boras) hit the open market at the same time.  Several teams have already been linked to both players, including some of the game’s wealthiest franchises — the Dodgers have spoken to both, while the Rangers have interest in Rendon, and the Phillies and Yankees are known to be interested in Strasburg.  Since the bidding will be high for both players, the Nats could re-direct their resources towards one player in particular if the price tag for the other becomes truly untenable.

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