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Anthony DeSclafani

Giants Place Anthony DeSclafani On 10-Day IL, Steven Duggar On 60-Day IL

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The Giants announced a series of roster moves today, with right-hander Anthony DeSclafani going on the 10-day injured list with right ankle inflammation. Outfielder Steven Duggar is going on the 60-day injured list with an oblique strain. Right-hander Jakob Junis has been recalled to take one of the spots on the active roster, with the other going to outfielder Luis Gonzalez. Gonzalez wasn’t on the 40-man roster, but Duggar’s placement on the 60-day IL has opened a slot for him. (Twitter links from Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle)

Duggar left yesterday’s game with the injury and his placement on the injured list isn’t surprising. Comments from president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi yesterday made it a certainty. However, there was little indication of Duggar requiring a trip to the 60-day list. “That’s an injury that usually puts a guy on the sidelines for a few weeks,” Zaidi said, prior to Duggar undergoing an MRI. The results of that MRI must have been more serious than anticipated, with Duggar now unable to return before late June.

With Duggar out for an extended stretch, the club will have to figure out a center field replacement, as Duggar started 11 of the club’s first 13 games there. Mauricio Dubon and Austin Slater each took one of the others. Both of them will surely be in the mix, but they are also both right-handed hitters. Since Gonzalez is a lefty, their may be a path for him to earn the strong side of a platoon.

Gonzalez was in the minors with the White Sox last year when he required season-ending shoulder surgery. Since injured players cannot be placed on outright waivers and the team needed a roster spot, they had the choice of either placing him on the 60-day IL or on release waivers. Since the former option would require Gonzalez earning an MLB salary and service time, the White Sox opted for the latter, hoping he would clear and quickly re-sign with the club. However, the Giants claimed him and placed him on the 60-day IL, giving him the pay and service time the White Sox wouldn’t. Although Gonzalez was non-tendered at the end of the year, he seems to have appreciated that gesture from the Giants, as he re-signed with them on a minor league deal. In 11 Triple-A games so far this year, he’s hitting .283/.389/.500, 129 wRC+.

As for DeSclafani, he went on the IL with the same ankle inflammation last year, though he only required a minimum 10-day stint before returning. The severity of the injury this time around isn’t clear, but will be a challenge for the Giants regardless. Alex Cobb was just placed on the IL two days ago, meaning the club’s rotation is now doubly short-handed. Sam Long is taking the ball tonight, though he’s been in the bullpen for the club this year. He last pitched on Tuesday, throwing 25 pitches in relief, meaning he’s unlikely to take on a traditional starter’s workload tonight. Alex Wood, Logan Webb and Carlos Rodon made up the core of the rotation for now, as they try to carry the team to off-days on April 28 and May 2, with Cobb and DeSclafani hopefully able to return after that.

Giants Re-Sign Anthony DeSclafani

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The Giants have made the first of what’ll be multiple additions to the starting rotation, announcing agreement with free agent starter Anthony DeSclafani on a three-year, $36MM contract. (The team confirmed the contract terms). The deal pays the VC Sports Group client flat $12MM salaries each year from 2022-24.

DeSclafani, 32 next April, spent this past season in San Francisco. He joined the organization on a one-year, $6MM guarantee last December. That was a buy-low play for the front office, as DeSclafani has struggled with both injuries and performance en route to a 7.22 ERA across 33 2/3 innings the year before, his final season with the Reds.

The move worked out as well as president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi could have reasonably expected. DeSclafani stayed healthy — aside from a minimal IL stint due to ankle inflammation — and made 31 starts, finishing 18th in the National League in innings pitched. Along with taking on a heavy workload, DeSclafani posted arguably the best rate numbers of his career. He worked to a personal low 3.17 ERA and 3.62 FIP, while his 4.11 SIERA is right in line with his best marks during his time in Cincinnati.

Despite averaging north of 94 MPH on his fastball, DeSclafani’s swing-and-miss and strikeout numbers are more fine than spectacular. His 11% swinging strike rate and 22.5% strikeout rate this past season were both almost exactly in line with the respective league averages (10.9% and 22.4%) for starting pitchers. While he hasn’t been overpowering, DeSclafani has typically paired those decent strikeout numbers with plus control and a ground-ball rate at or just a tick above the league average.

Fielding independent metrics suggest DeSclafani’s more of a capable mid-rotation workhorse than a true top-of-the-rotation starter. There’s plenty of value in a third or fourth starter who soaks up average to slightly above-average innings in bulk, though, and that’s the type of pitcher DeSclafani has been over the course of his career. For a Giants team that could’ve lost all but Logan Webb from this year’s rotation, making a run at bringing DeSclafani back always seemed like a strong possibility.

San Francisco elected not to make him an $18.4MM qualifying offer at the outset of the offseason, but they struck fairly quickly to bring him back on a multi-year deal at a lesser average annual value. The guarantee comes in just a hair below MLBTR’s three-year, $42MM projection. It’s a sensible price point, although it’s worth noting that this kind of deal has become fairly atypical as teams have tended to devalue mid-tier arms in recent years. Among free agent starting pitchers, only Kyle Gibson ($30MM with the Rangers in 2019-20) and Tyler Chatwood ($38MM with the Cubs in 2017-18) have signed three-year deals worth between $30MM and $50MM over the past five offseasons.

The Giants have an abundance of payroll flexibility — both in 2022 and beyond. They’re apparently taking advantage of it to address their aforementioned rotation needs early in the offseason. In addition to the already-finalized DeSclafani reunion, the club is reportedly nearing a two-year deal with Alex Wood and was said to be making a strong run at Alex Cobb this morning. Whether all three starters will wind up in black and orange remains to be seen, but it’s clear the front office has made addressing the rotation a priority — seemingly in advance of the December 1 expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement.

To clear space on the 40-man roster for DeSclafani’s return, the Giants designated corner outfielder Alex Dickerson for assignment. That’ll almost certainly conclude Dickerson’s two and a half season tenure in the Bay Area, as he has more than enough service time to refuse an outright assignment even if he’s not traded or claimed off waivers over the coming days.

The Giants acquired Dickerson in a minor deal with the division-rival Padres in June 2019. That paid off handsomely, as the lefty-hitting outfielder performed quite well down the stretch that year and mashed in a limited sample during last year’s shortened season. Between those two campaigns, Dickerson kicked off his Giants’ career with a .294/.361/.552 showing over his first 341 plate appearances.

Impressive as he started, Dickerson couldn’t get on track in 2021. While he tallied a career-high 312 plate appearances this past season, he managed just a .233/.304/.420 line with 13 home runs. Combined with a limited defensive profile and an arbitration salary projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to land in the $3MM range, the front office determined not to bring him back in 2022.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the Giants and DeSclafani had reached agreement on a three-year, $36MM deal. Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group reported that the deal paid DeSclafani an even $12MM in each season.

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Sports.

Tigers Interested In Jon Gray, Anthony DeSclafani

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11:48AM: Right-hander Anthony DeSclafani is also on the Tigers’ radar, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.  Like Gray, DeSclafani also didn’t receive a qualifying offer.

11:37AM: The Tigers have “early interest” in Jon Gray, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (via Twitter).  Gray joins Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Matz, and Detroit legend Justin Verlander as free agent pitchers linked to the Tigers’ search for a veteran arm or two to bolster their young rotation.

Given their interest in qualifying offer recipients Rodriguez and Verlander, it doesn’t appear that the Tigers are necessarily deterred by the idea of giving up draft pick compensation to make a big pitching signing, though Gray wouldn’t require any compensation since the Rockies (curiously) didn’t issue a QO to the right-hander.  This surely gives Gray some extra appeal from Detroit’s perspective, though naturally the same could be said for many teams.

Gray only turned 30 last week, so if he does end up in the Motor City, he should have more prime years to contribute to a Tigers squad that is looking to get back into contention as early as 2022.  Detroit is expected to spend some serious money this offseason, linked to the market for the big free agent shortstops as well as pitchers like Gray who could slot in near the front of the rotation.  MLBTR projected Gray (ranked 19th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents) to land four years and $56MM in free agency, with Tim Dierkes predicting that Gray would in fact sign with the Tigers.

Signing a QO-rejecting free agent would cost the Tigers their third-highest pick in the 2022 draft.  This would be either their second-round selection or their Competitive Balance Round B selection, depending on where Detroit is drawn in this year’s Competitive Balance Round lottery.  It is also possible that the draft and compensation rules will be altered in the next collective bargaining agreement, so while the Tigers would surely still have to give up something as a penalty for signing a QO free agent, the specific nature of that compensation might not be known until the new CBA is settled.

Under the current rules, the Tigers would also have to give up their fourth-highest draft pick if they signed two free agents who rejected the qualifying offer.  It can be assumed that Detroit would rather not surrender multiple picks if necessary, so if the Tigers did make a big splash and ink one of the QO free agents, it would make them even more focused on non-QO players like Gray for any other big signings.

As far as the Rockies’ own efforts to retain Gray, the club attempted to sign Gray to a three-year extension worth roughly $35MM-$40MM before the end of the regular season, but the righty rejected the offer.  It doesn’t seem like any further negotiation has taken place, since Colorado GM Bill Schmidt told The Athletic’s Nick Groke that “there hasn’t been any conversation” with Gray’s camp since “the end of the season….[Gray’s agent] said they’d stay in touch.  I assume they’re trying to figure out what the market is.”

Giants Notes: Belt, DeSclafani, Suzuki

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Brandon Belt has until November 17 to decide on whether to accept or reject the $18.4MM qualifying offer from the Giants, but the club isn’t just twiddling their thumbs in the meantime. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reports that they met with his representatives today and “discussed several contract formats.”

After a down year in 2019, Belt has been one of the best hitters on the planet for the past couple years. Over the past two seasons, he has hit .285/.393/.595, producing a wRC+ of 163, which is third-best in MLB among those with at least 550 plate appearances, trailing only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper. However, the first baseman, who turns 34 in April, has been often limited by injuries. Only one of his past five campaigns saw him get into more than 112 games, and it happened to be that down year in 2019. In 2021, it was just 97 games. Still, the production is strong enough that the Giants are happy to retain him, as evidenced by the extension of the QO, but also on whatever type of multi-year deal they discussed today.

A few months ago, the club extended their other Brandon for two-years and $32MM, which could perhaps be the type of deal they’re offering Belt now, slightly less money than the QO on an annual basis, but over a longer term. MLBTR recently predicted that Belt would accept the QO and try to re-enter the market a year from now, after he has hopefully had better health and seen the NL implement the DH.

Baggarly also reports that the club met with representatives for righty Anthony DeSclafani and discussed multi-year deals for him. Zaidi has already made it clear that the rotation is the “number one priority“, which makes a lot of sense given that it currently consists of just Logan Webb, on account of DeSclafani reaching free agency, as well as Kevin Gausman, Alex Wood and Johnny Cueto. DeSclafani, 32 in April, had a miserable season for the Reds in 2020 but righted the ship nicely in 2021. After being picked up by the Giants, he tossed 167 2/3 innings with an ERA of 3.17. MLBTR, in the same pieced linked above, recently predicted he would garner three years and $42MM, an annual average value of $14MM.

But the Giants aren’t just considering their departing free agents, of course. John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that they have interest in Seiya Suzuki, who is expected to be posted for MLB teams soon. Baggarly quotes Zaidi as saying that a right-handed hitting outfielder like Suzuki “kind of fits our team.” That’s a bit of an understatement, as their current outfield skews heavily the other way, with Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade Jr., Steven Duggar and Alex Dickerson all hitting from the left side and Austin Slater being the most notable righty. Kris Bryant, who hits right-handed, was brought into the mix at the trade deadline but is now a free agent.

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently wrote about the Giants as part of the Offseason Outlook series and noted that they are lined up to be one of the busiest teams this winter, given their multiple openings and limited payroll commitments. Zaidi and the rest of his team are sure to explore each and every opportunity to add to their team this winter, and all indications point to them already doing just that.

Notable Players Who Didn’t Receive Qualifying Offers

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Fourteen players were issued qualifying offers before today’s 4pm CT deadline, making the largest slate of offers extended since 20 players received the QO during the 2015-16 offseason.  Despite the large number, however, some notable (and surprising) names weren’t issued the one-year, $18.4MM contract by their teams, and will now enter free agency without any draft pick compensation attached to their services.

We already touched on Clayton Kershaw’s situation with the Dodgers, and now let’s look at the three other free agents (all pitchers) who were seen as possible or even probable candidates to receive the QO…

Jon Gray, Rockies

Perhaps the most curious non-decision of the day came from Denver, as the Rockies passed on giving Gray a qualifying offer despite their clear interest in retaining the right-hander.  The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders reports that Gray “likely would have accepted” a qualifying offer, which likely factored into the team’s decision-making process.  It seems like the Rockies simply weren’t willing to pay Gray $18.4MM over one year, even though Colorado seemed comfortable in the range of a $13MM average annual value, as per their recent extension offer of a three-year deal worth around $35-$40MM.

It seems entirely possible that Gray could find more than three years and $40MM on the open market, especially without any QO compensation involved.  While the Rockies and Gray may yet work out a new contract, the Rox are now in the position of losing Gray for nothing.  This would be an especially tough blow for the club considering that they held onto Gray at the trade deadline out of the desire to sign him to a long-term extension.

Carlos Rodon, White Sox

Some late-season shoulder problems resulted in a trip to the injured list and then a reduced workload for the southpaw, putting a bit of a sour end to an otherwise tremendous year.  However, the White Sox declined to issue Rodon a qualifying offer, and may now be parting ways with Rodon entirely — both The Athletic’s James Fegan and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale indicated that the Sox weren’t going to make an effort to bring Rodon back for another year on the South Side.

With this in mind, it seems clear that the White Sox didn’t want to run the risk of Rodon accepting the QO, which seemed like a distinct possibility given his late-season shoulder woes, not to mention his lengthy past injury history.  It could be that the Sox already consider Rodon as found money, considering they took a $3MM flier on him last winter and he delivered 132 2/3 innings of 2.37 ERA ball.  The team might also have further concerns about his long-term health.  As Fegan notes, Chicago could use some type of starting depth this offseason, but it looks as though the White Sox feel they can find that rotation help at a cheaper price than Rodon at $18.4MM.

Anthony DeSclafani, Giants

One of several pitchers who have revived their careers after coming to San Francisco, DeSclafani rebounded from a rough 2020 season with the Reds to post a 3.17 ERA over 167 2/3 frames in a Giants uniform.  With some less-than-stellar Statcast numbers, however, the Giants may not have been inclined to have DeSclafani back for $18.4MM, though the team does have designs on re-signing him if possible.

There was a decent chance DeSclafani would have accepted the Giants’ QO, just as Kevin Gausman did a season ago.  Since the Giants also issued a qualifying offer to Brandon Belt that could be accepted, the club was probably wary of committing $36.8MM to just two players for their 2022 payroll, even if San Francisco has quite a bit of financial room to maneuver.

Rotation Market Rumors: Kershaw, Gausman, Giants, DeSclafani

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Clayton Kershaw’s 2021 season didn’t go as hoped. The Dodgers icon was sharp when healthy and posted his best K-BB% (25.3) since 2017, ultimately logging a 3.55 ERA in 121 1/3 innings with even better fielding-independent marks. That said, Kershaw also missed more than two months due to a forearm injury and was only able to briefly return before a recurrence of that same issue wiped him out for the postseason. Asked at his end-of-season press conference whether Kershaw would be viewed differently than other free agents because of his history with the club, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told reporters that’s likely to be the case (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Juan Toribio):

“Yeah, I think that’s fair,” said Friedman. “Obviously what he’s meant to this organization, to the city — from his standpoint, I think it’s all about what makes sense for him and Ellen and their family. … “I think, taking off my president of baseball operations hat, there’s something nostalgic and great about Kersh playing with one team and being able to win another championship and having a parade.”

Friedman noted that Kershaw has earned the right to do what’s best for his family but spoke glowingly of the lefty’s legacy and implied a desire to continue the relationship. Kershaw reportedly won’t require surgery, and the Dodgers will have the option of making a qualifying offer to the veteran southpaw.

More notes on the looming free-agent market for starting pitchers…

  • There’s a “strong” chance that the Giants will push to work out a multi-year deal to keep Kevin Gausman atop their rotation, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. The Giants value the chemistry that was developed during this year’s postseason push and have interest in maintaining some continuity, which could lead them to explore reunions with any of Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood. San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has already gone on record to call the rotation the team’s “number one priority” this offseason, no surprise given the impending free agencies of Gausman, DeSclafani, Wood and Johnny Cueto (whose $22MM club option will assuredly be bought out for $5MM). The Giants have about as much payroll flexibility as any team in baseball, giving Zaidi and his staff myriad options in rebuilding the rotation over the coming months. It certainly stands to reason they’ll be active in the market for Gausman, who has an even 3.00 ERA with stellar strikeout and walk numbers (30% and 6.5%, respectively) over 251 2/3 innings in black and orange since the start of 2020.
  • Gausman received a qualifying offer last winter, making him ineligible for another in his career. The Giants will have to decide whether to offer an $18.4MM QO to one or both of DeSclafani and Wood in the coming days, though. Grant Brisbee of the Athletic opines the club should offer a QO to DeSclafani based on the aforementioned rotation uncertainty and payroll flexibility. Signed to a bounceback deal last offseason following a poor 2020 with the Reds, DeSclafani made 31 starts and worked 167 2/3 innings of 3.17 ERA/4.11 SIERA ball this past season. Brisbee doesn’t expect San Francisco to risk that lofty one-year sum on a QO for Wood, however. Also a low-cost flier last winter, Wood impressed with 138 2/3 frames with a 3.83 ERA/3.60 SIERA. Injuries limited the veteran southpaw to just 48 1/3 combined innings from 2019-20, though, and it remains to be seen how much of an effect durability concerns could have on Wood’s free agent market this time around.

Farhan Zaidi Addresses Giants’ Rotation, Posey, Belt

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This morning, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi addressed the club’s priorities ahead of what’s sure to be a busy offseason (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area and Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic). Zaidi made clear the team regards its starting rotation as its “number one priority.” The Giants’ president also effectively confirmed they intend to bring back Buster Posey (by at least exercising his $22MM club option) and hope to re-sign Brandon Belt for what would be his twelfth season in San Francisco.

That the Giants intend to focus their offseason attention on addressing their needs in the rotation comes as no surprise. Presuming they pay Johnny Cueto’s $5MM buyout rather than pick up his $22MM option, four of the five members of a group that led the club to a 3.44 rotation ERA (Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, and Cueto) are set to hit free agency. Only breakout star Logan Webb, who won’t reach free agency until at least 2026, remains under team control.

Zaidi made clear he hopes to bring back at least some of this year’s rotation, stating that “we want to keep as much of this group together as we can,” but he’ll face stiff competition for several of the arms in question. Gausman figures to be among the top starters on the market (alongside Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, and Marcus Stroman) and won’t be eligible for the qualifying offer that might have scared off some suitors after he accepted the Giants’ QO last winter. DeSclafani (who made $6MM in 2021) and Wood ($3MM) are each in line to land much bigger salaries moving forward after each posted a bounceback year in his first season in the Golden City.

Zaidi’s confirmation that the club plans to keep Posey in the mix for 2022 is similarly unsurprising after the longtime Giants backstop put up a .304/.390/.499 line in 2021 after sitting out the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. The club’s intention to either pick up Posey’s 2022 option or sign him to an extension had also already been reported in August by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, but Zaidi’s comments reiterate the commitment of Giants’ brass to their franchise catcher. Still, as Posey will be entering his age-35 season, any extension is likely to be on the shorter side, perhaps similar to the two-year pact reached with shortstop Brandon Crawford in June.

Belt put up a similarly excellent .274/.378/.597 line in 2021 (albeit in only 381 plate appearances), so the club will likely face some competition in re-signing the first baseman from two of its three 2010’s title teams. Zaidi told reporters today he’d already been in dialogue with Belt’s representation before the season’s end and they still hope to re-sign him.

After a 107-win season that ended in heartbreaking fashion, the Giants’ desire to run it back with a similar squad is certainly understandable. The Giants have largely bucked the youth wave sweeping the game, and whether or not manager Gabe Kapler can deliver the mix-and-match lineup magic of 2021 for another year remains to be seen. Crucially, so does their ability to bring back the bulk of a rotation that put them in position to lead the big leagues in wins.

Giants Reinstate Anthony DeSclafani, Designate Tyler Chatwood For Assignment

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The Giants announced several roster moves today, reinstating right-hander Anthony DeSclafani from the injured list and first baseman Brandon Belt from the paternity list. To make room for those two, infielder Thairo Estrada was optioned to Triple-A and right-hander Tyler Chatwood was designated for assignment.

It’s a quick turnaround for DeSclafani, who went on the IL on August 19th. That’s great news for the Giants, as the righty has been tremendous for them this season. Over 132 2/3 innings, he has an ERA of 3.26, producing 2.1 fWAR already on the year. With Johnny Cueto also having recently returned from the IL, the Giants rotation is in great shape for the stretch run, as they try to hold off the Dodgers in the NL West. The Giants are currently atop the pennant race by 2 1/2 games.

It’s potentially the end of a very short tenure in San Francisco for Chatwood. He was designated for assignment by the Blue Jays in July after struggling with command issues. In 28 innings out of Toronto’s bullpen, he had an ERA of 5.46, thanks in large part to a bloated walk rate of 16%. (League average for all pitchers is 8.7%.) The Giants then signed him to a minors deal April 7th and added him to the big league roster 10 days later. In two games for the Giants, Chatwood racked up four innings with six strikeouts but also allowed five runs (three earned) with one walk and one hit-by-pitch. The 31-year-old will now go on waivers and, if unclaimed, will be able to elect free agency. If he joins a new organization before the end of the month, even if it’s a minors deal, he will be eligible to play in the postseason for that club.

Giants Place Anthony DeSclafani, Evan Longoria On IL

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The Giants have placed Anthony DeSclafani and Evan Longoria on the IL, per a team announcement. Longoria is going on the COVID IL because of vaccine side effects, per Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic. DeSclafani’s placement, retroactive to August 19th, is due to right ankle inflammation. The two roster spots will be taken by lefty Sammy Long and righty Jay Jackson. Additionally, Reyes Moronta was activated from his rehab assignment and optioned to Triple-A.

For Longoria, he should be able to return in a day or two, once he feels better. (The COVID IL has no minimum stay.) The loss of DeSclafani, however, is the more worrisome news for the Giants as he has been a solid member of the rotation this season. After a down year with Cincinnati in 2020, San Fran scooped him up for a one-year, $6MM deal, getting tremendous value for that outlay. Desclafani’s tally of 132 2/3 innings is second only to Kevin Gausman on the club this year. His ERA of 3.26 over that span is the 14th-best mark in all of MLB. He’s recently hit a bit of a snag, however, going on the IL for the second time this month. He endured a minimum stay starting August 4th because of shoulder fatigue and will now go back on the shelf because of this ankle inflammation.

It’s unclear how long the hurler is expected to be sidelined, but even another minimum stay will be impactful. After an off-day on Monday, the Giants will enter a stretch of playing 16 days in a row. They are also without Johnny Cueto, who recently went on the IL himself, whittling the rotation down to Gausman, Logan Webb and Alex Wood. This all comes as the Dodgers have crept up on the Giants in the standings, narrowing the gap to 1 1/2 games going into today’s action.

Sammy Long will likely slot into the rotation at some point during the next few weeks. He’s just recently been getting stretched out after his own IL stint but was able to throw five innings in his most recent Triple-A start. In eight games at the MLB level this year, four starts, he’s absorbed 28 1/3 innings with an elevated ERA of 5.72, but more a more palatable 3.84 xERA, 3.96 SIERA and 3.63 FIP.

Cueto is eligible to return at any point now, though it’s unclear if that’s expected. Without him, the club may have to turn to its depth, though that also just took a hit with Tyler Beede being placed on the 60-day IL just a few days ago. The Giant signed Matt Shoemaker to a minor league deal a few weeks back, though he’s having a nightmare season. Released by the Twins after posting an ERA north of 8.00, his time in the Giants’ org hasn’t improved things. In a small sample of three appearances with the Triple-A Sacramento River Cats, his ERA is 9.45.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

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