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White Sox Non-Tender Gavin Sheets

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6:05pm: The White Sox announced that they have tendered Vaughn a contract for 2025.

3:40pm: The White Sox are not going to tender a contract to first baseman/outfielder Gavin Sheets, per a report from Robert Murray of FanSided on X. Once official, Chicago’s 40-man roster count will drop to 38.

Sheets, 29 in April, was a second-round pick of the White Sox in 2017. He hit well throughout his minor league career, which made him a notable prospect in the club’s system for a while. Baseball America ranked him as one of their top 15 prospects in four straight years from 2018 to 2021. In the last of those years, he made his major league debut with a splash, hitting 11 home runs in just 54 games. That led to a .250/.324/.506 slash line and 123 wRC+.

But his production has fallen off since then. The Sox have given him 1,255 plate appearances over the past three years but Sheets has hit just .227/.291/.368 in those. That production translates to an 84 wRC+, indicating he’s been 16% worse than league average.

The Sox have had first base largely occupied by José Abreu and then Andrew Vaughn over the past few years. That has forced Sheets to spend more time in the outfield corners, where he’s not considered a strong defender, to put it mildly. In 1,618 innings on the grass, he has -22 Defensive Runs Saved and -13 Outs Above Average.

He crossed three years of service time in 2024, allowing him to qualify for arbitration for the first time. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a salary of $2.6MM next year. Given his performance thus far, it’s unsurprising that the Sox have decided they’re uninterested in bringing him back at that price point.

It’s possible that the two sides could reunite on a deal with a lower salary, but Sheets will now be free to talk to all 30 clubs and assess his options. If he latches on somewhere and gets back on track, he can theoretically be controlled for three more seasons.

The Sox still have Luis Robert Jr. and Andrew Benintendi, their two highest-paid players, in their outfield mix. They just signed Austin Slater and added him to the group. Zach DeLoach, Oscar Colás, Dominic Fletcher and Corey Julks are also on the roster and should be battling each other for playing time. Vaughn is still the first baseman on paper, though it’s possible that he also winds up non-tendered today.

White Sox Place Andrew Benintendi On 10-Day Injured List

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Prior to today’s game, the White Sox placed outfielder Andrew Benintendi on the 10-day injured list today due to left achilles tendinitis.  Oscar Colas was called up from Triple-A to take Benintendi’s roster spot, as Francys Romero was the first to report (via X) yesterday.

It seemed likely that Benintendi was headed for the IL after he was removed early from yesterday’s game.  Sox manager Pedro Grifol revealed to reporters that Benintendi had been playing with the injury for a while, and though the outfielder even homered prior to his early exit Saturday, the discomfort just became too much for Benintendi to bear.

The IL placement is yet another bad turn in Benintendi’s star-crossed tenure with the White Sox.  He signed a five-year, $75MM free agent deal with Chicago in the 2022-23 offseason, but then hit only .262/.326/.356 over 621 plate appearances last year.  The follow-up has been even worse, as Benintendi’s .195/.230/.284 slash line over 200 PA in 2024 has given him the lowest fWAR (-1.6) of any qualified player in baseball.  While there are still over three and a half years remaining on Benintendi’s deal, the largest contract in White Sox history is already looking like an albatross, which isn’t great news for a rebuilding Sox team that will be trying to move as much veteran talent as possible in order to reload with younger players.

Colas was in today’s starting lineup against the Brewers, and he has appeared in one other MLB game this season (a pinch-hit appearance in Chicago’s 7-6 loss to Cleveland on April 10).  The outfielder has otherwise spent the season at Triple-A Charlotte, hitting .244/.358/.406 with five home runs over 193 PA.  It seems possible that this could be another cup of coffee type of promotion for Colas, as Luis Robert Jr. is expected to be activated from the injured list this coming week, and possibly as early as Tuesday when the White Sox next take the field.

Then again, Colas’ time in the Show could also be elongated depending on Andrew Vaughn’s status, as Vaughn has missed Chicago’s last three games.  Vaughn hasn’t played since spraining his left ring finger while sliding into a base on Wednesday, and manager Pedro Grifol told MLB.com and other media that the plan was to see how Vaughn felt after 3-5 days of rest.  If Vaughn still isn’t showing improvement on Tuesday, he might go on the IL himself (with three days of backdated placement) if Robert is ready to be activated.

Vaughn is unfortunately not far ahead of Benintendi, as Vaughn’s -0.8 fWAR is the fourth-worst of any qualified player.  The former third overall pick had a 107 wRC+ and a .264/.317/.429 slash line over 1170 PA during the 2022-23 seasons, but he has taken a big step backwards with a .199/.264/.313 slash and four homers in his first 220 trips to the plate this year.  Gavin Sheets has been filling in at first base in Vaughn’s absence.

Latest On White Sox’s Deadline Plans

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The White Sox could be one of the most interesting sellers of this year’s deadline. Chicago lost their last two heading into the All-Star Break and sit 16 games under .500 at 38-54. They’ve fallen eight games back of Cleveland in the AL Central, in which they now occupy fourth place.

Chicago has a number of players who are relatively close to free agency whom they could market in trade. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Sox are prepared to seriously consider offers on all but four players: center fielder Luis Robert Jr., ace Dylan Cease, first baseman Andrew Vaughn and left fielder Eloy Jiménez. Heyman suggests that while no one on the roster might be categorically untouchable, Chicago’s “clear intention” is to retain those four players.

Last month, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote that Chicago was telling rival clubs they were focused on retaining players under control beyond this season. Genuinely considering offers on everyone aside from Cease, Robert, Vaughn and Jiménez would represent a change in direction, although the Sox would still resist moving any of their most valuable long-term assets.

Chicago has a number of likely impending free agents who are apparent trade candidates. Starter Lucas Giolito and relievers Keynan Middleton and Reynaldo López are pure rentals; all three appeared among MLBTR’s top 20 trade candidates last week. So did starter Lance Lynn, whose contract contains an $18MM team option that appears likely to be bought out for $1MM. Reliever Joe Kelly, controllable for next season via $9.5MM club option ($1MM buyout), also ranked highly on that list.

The Sox have a few more players with relatively pricy 2024 options. Closer Liam Hendriks has a $15MM option that comes with a matching buyout figure. That seems likely to be exercised, as buying Hendriks out would only allow the Sox to defer that payment over a 10-year span. Tim Anderson’s deal contains a $14MM team option or a $1MM buyout. Anderson is having a terrible season (.223/.259/.263 over 290 plate appearances) that could at least force the organization to reconsider an option that looked like an easy call a few months ago. The Mike Clevinger deal contains a $12MM mutual provision which the club will probably buy out for $4MM.

Yasmani Grandal and Elvis Andrus are the other impending free agents on the roster. Grandal is hitting at a decent .251/.317/.374 clip, but trades of catchers midseason are fairly rare and he’s making an $18.25MM salary that’d be difficult to move. Andrus isn’t producing, hitting .208/.286/.266.

The White Sox considering offers on anyone in that group isn’t too surprising. The majority are unlikely to be on the South Side beyond this season. It’d be an inopportune time to deal Anderson or Hendriks (currently on the injured list with elbow inflammation), although the front office could look into it if they’re contemplating declining next year’s option on either player.

Giolito, in particular, seems all but assured to change uniforms. MLBTR’s #1 trade candidate has tossed 112 1/3 innings of 3.45 ERA ball across 19 starts. He’s striking out over a quarter of opponents and looks the part of a durable #2/3 starter on a playoff team. He’s on track for a nine-figure contract that’d be larger than any in White Sox’s franchise history. Chicago should get more in trade this summer than the value of the draft choice they’d receive if they allow him to depart in free agency after declining a qualifying offer.

Heyman suggests the Reds and Rangers could check in Giolito. Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has gone on record about a desire to add pitching. The NL Central-leading club is very likely to upgrade a starting staff that’s presently without Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. Texas has gotten strong results out of their rotation but could look to add depth as they try to maintain a two-game lead in the AL West. They’ve reportedly checked in on Lynn as well, though Giolito would be the more impactful and costlier (in terms of prospect capital) addition.

One controllable player whom the Sox seem at least somewhat willing to consider moving: starter Michael Kopech. Heyman writes the Sox would be more amenable to relinquishing Kopech than anyone from the Robert, Cease, Vaughn, Jiménez group.

While the 6’3″ right-hander is only in his second full season as a big league starter, he’s not all that far off free agency. Kopech will soon surpass four years of MLB service and is eligible for arbitration through the 2025 campaign — the same control window as Cease. He’s playing this season on a $2.05MM salary.

Kopech landed on the 15-day injured list last week with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He’s generally expected back not long after the Break, however, so he could have multiple starts before the August 1 deadline. If he’s in form, he’d surely generate interest.

Through 16 starts and 86 innings, Kopech has worked to a 4.08 ERA. He’s striking out 26% of opponents on a solid 11.4% swinging strike percentage while averaging over 95 MPH on his fastball. There’s clearly plenty of promise with the 27-year-old righty, but he has not yet established himself as the top-of-the-rotation arm some evaluators had envisioned. That’s largely due to spotty control, as his 13.1% walk rate is the highest of any pitcher with at least 15 starts.

There’s obviously far less urgency for general manager Rick Hahn and his staff to move Kopech than with any of the impending free agents. Chicago isn’t going to embark on a full teardown and rebuild, so they figure to hold firm to a lofty asking price on their controllable mid-rotation starter. Still, the front office seems more amenable than they were a few weeks ago to consider moving players besides their collection of talented rentals.

Which Players Could White Sox Make Available Closer To The Trade Deadline?

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I wrote about the calamitous White Sox start on Friday, and over the weekend the team went 1-2, snapping a nine-game losing streak with a stunning seven-run bottom half of the ninth inning, walking off the Rays in the process. Even if that win sparks some momentum for a listless South Side club, the Sox are already nine back in the AL Central. They’d need to play at an 82-51 pace (.617) to get to 90 wins. It’s not even clear that’d be enough for a division win, with the Twins playing at a 95-win pace.

Early May is pretty early to be doing any forward-looking breakdown of what a team might have to offer at this year’s trade deadline, but the current state of the White Sox is a bit more dire than usual. Their playoff odds at FanGraphs have plummeted from 30.5% prior to the season to just 4.2% now. PECOTA has their playoff odds at just 3.2%. They have MLB’s second-worst run differential (-65) and are already battling myriad injuries with some glaring depth issues.

One of the most frequently asked questions over the past week in the chats we host at MLBTR has been one of who could be available if the Sox sell this summer. With that in mind and with an obligatory “it’s still only May 1” caveat, here’s a quick rundown of the possibilities and how they’ve begun the season.

Rental Players

The most obvious candidates to change hands if the Sox do indeed end up selling, all of these players are set to be free agents at season’s end anyhow. There are a couple of qualifying offer candidates within the group, so the Sox would need to feel they’re getting more than the value of a compensatory draft pick back in those instances.

Lucas Giolito, RHP, 28, $10.4MM salary

Giolito won’t turn 29 until mid-July and stands as one of the potential top arms on next offseason’s free-agent market … if he can round back into form this season and put an ugly 2022 campaign behind him. From 2019-21, the former first-round pick was one of the American League’s top arms, making the All-Star team in ’19 and securing Cy Young votes in all three of those seasons — including sixth- and seventh-place finishes in 2019 and 2020, respectively. During that stretch, Giolito logged a collective 3.47 ERA with a huge 30.7% strikeout rate and solid 8% walk rate.

The 2022 season was another story. Giolito’s fastball dropped from the 94.2 mph it averaged during that three-year peak down to 92.7 mph. His strikeout rate fell to an above-average but still-diminished 25.4%. His walk rate crept up a bit, to 8.7%. His opponents’ average exit velocity jumped from 87.8 mph to 88.8 mph, and his hard-hit rate rose from 34.5% to 39%. None of those are awful numbers, but everything went the wrong direction for Giolito in ’22. A huge .340 BABIP surely contributed to some of his struggles — being a fly-ball pitcher with the worst outfield defense in baseball isn’t fun — but it wasn’t a great season regardless.

Giolito’s picked some velocity back up early this season. His 23.1% strikeout rate isn’t near its peak, but his 4.1% walk rate is far and away a career-best mark. If the White Sox sell, Giolito will likely be one of the best and most in-demand starters on the market. He’s out to a decent start, and with his track record, age and upside, a qualifying offer seems likely, barring a disastrous collapse. The Sox would need to feel they got more value than they’d net in the form of a compensatory draft pick.

Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, 29, $3.625MM

Lopez has had a terrible start to the season, with an 8.76 ERA and five home runs allowed in just 12 1/3 innings (3.65 HR/9). He was very good in the ’pen in 2021-22, however, notching a 3.07 ERA with an above-average 24.8% strikeout rate and a 5.3% walk rate. In 2023, Lopez is sporting a career-best 33.3% strikeout rate, and he’s averaging a career-high 99.2 mph on his heater. His 14.6% swinging-strike rate is excellent. If Lopez who allowed just one home run in 55 2/3 innings last year, can get past this bizarre home run spike, he still has obvious late-inning potential and is the type of affordable power arm who’d appeal to other clubs.

Mike Clevinger, RHP, 32, $12MM

Clevinger technically has a 2024 option on his contract, but mutual options are almost exclusively accounting measures and are exercised by both parties with only the utmost rarity. He’s still just 32 years old, by Clevinger’s halcyon days feel like they were a lot longer ago than 2017-20. He missed the 2021 season following Tommy John surgery, came back with a diminished fastball and middling peripherals in ’22, and hasn’t looked much better in 2023, with a 4.60 ERA, below-average 19.3% strikeout rate and ugly 11.1% walk rate in 29 1/3 innings. Clevinger has gained some but not all of the life on his heater back, and his current 8.1% swinging-strike rate is both well below the league average (11.1%) and easily the lowest mark of his career. He’s pitching like a fifth starter right now, and not a particularly cheap one.

Elvis Andrus, 2B/SS, 35, $3MM

Andrus was great with the White Sox in place of an injured Tim Anderson down the stretch in 2022 (.271/.309/.464, nine homers, 11 steals) and has been the opposite so far in 2023, hitting .206/.274/.245 in 113 plate appearances with well below-average quality of contact, per Statcast. He can still play defense and has now shown a willingness to log some time at second base, so another club could look at him as a slick-fielding utility option. He’ll need to hit more than he has in the season’s first month, though.

Hanser Alberto, INF, 30, $2.3MM

Alberto has typically been a solid defender at three infield spots with good bat-to-ball skills, a bottom-of-the-barrel walk rate and minimal power. This season, however, he’s made some glaring misplays at third base and batted just .211/.211/.368 in 19 plate appearances before hitting the IL with a quad strain. It’s a tiny sample, but he needs to get healthy and play better to even make it to the trade deadline on the big league roster.

Yasmani Grandal, C, 34, $18.25MM

The switch-hitting Grandal has bounced back at the plate with a .241/.323/.446 batting line (114 wRC+) and three homers in 93 plate appearances. His 8.6% walk rate is well down from its career 14.5% level, and his once-vaunted defensive ratings have fallen below average at 34. Given his considerable salary, Grandal is only changing hands if the ChiSox eat a good portion of the bill.

Signed/Controlled for One Extra Year

Moving anyone from this group would signal a more aggressive seller’s standpoint from the front office, but the Sox would generally be able to retain their core players while also unlocking larger returns than they’d be land for their generally modest collection of rentals.

Tim Anderson, SS, 30 | $12.5MM in 2023, $14MM club option for 2024

Anderson batted above .300 in four straight seasons from 2019-22, turning in an overall .318/.347/.473 slash that was 23% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. The two-time All-Star is a regular threat for 15 to 20 home runs and 15 to 25 steals. Defensive metrics are mixed on his work at shortstop, but his only across-the-board below average season per DRS, UZR and OAA came in 2022, when he was hobbled by a groin strain. Anderson is a well above-average regular with All-Star potential and a highly affordable salary through the 2024 season.

The White Sox’ top prospect is 2021 first-rounder Colson Montgomery, who has become one of the game’s top-ranked shortstop prospects. He opened the season on the shelf with an oblique strain but could be ready for a big league look in 2024 after reaching Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2022.

Lance Lynn, RHP, 36 | $18.5MM in 2023, $18MM club option for 2024

Lynn, 36 next week, hasn’t been himself so far in 2023. His 10.1% walk rate is his highest since 2018 by a wide margin, and he’s allowed a jarring 2.20 homers per nine frames. The 94.4 mph he averaged on his heater in 2019-21 is down to 92.6 mph in 2023, and while he’s still missing bats in the zone and off the plate, Lynn has allowed too much hard contact when opponents do connect. Hitters posted just a .192/.238/.335 slash against Lynn’s four-seamer as recently as 2022, but they’re hitting .283/.365/.587 when putting the pitch in play this year. The 2019-22 version of Lynn is well worth that 2024 option price, but he needs to solve his home run woes.

Liam Hendriks, RHP, 34 | $14MM in 2023, $15MM club option for 2024

Hendriks hasn’t pitched this season but recently announced that he’s cancer-free after battling non-Hodgkins lymphoma for the past several months. Hendriks is one of the game’s best relievers, and the priority is simply getting back on the field. If he looks like himself, he’d garner interest.

Joe Kelly, RHP, 35 | $9MM in 2023, $9.5MM club option for 2024

Kelly has been on the IL three times since signing a two-year, $17MM deal with the White Sox prior to the 2022 season. He also has a 6.26 ERA and a 12.6% walk rate with the South Siders. He’s still missing bats, racking up grounders and has had improved command in his tiny 4 2/3  inning sample this season. The Sox might have to eat some money to move him even if he’s pitching decently.

Kendall Graveman, RHP, 32 | $8MM in 2023, $8MM in 2024

Graveman is still throwing hard and missing bats at a solid clip, but his sinker isn’t getting grounders anywhere near its prior levels. He’s sitting on a 38.7% ground-ball rate in ’23 after living at 54% in 2021-22 and 52.1% in his career prior to the current season. On a surely related note, he’s giving up homers at a career-worst rate (2.38 HR/9). Graveman’s first season in Chicago was solid, but he’s at risk of becoming another high-priced bullpen misstep.

Jake Diekman, LHP, 36 | $3.5MM in 2023, $4MM club option for 2024

The White Sox acquired Diekman from the Red Sox at last year’s trade deadline even though he’d walked 17.5% of his opponents in Boston, and the command has only gotten worse. Diekman has walked a whopping 13 of his 58 opponents (22.4%) in 2023 while posting a 7.94 ERA. Command has always been a weak point, but this current rate just isn’t tenable. If he can’t right the ship, it’s hard to imagine him lasting on the roster until the trade deadline.

Longer Term Players

Moving anyone from this bunch is tougher to envision, as it would effectively signal a larger-scale rebuilding effort. While the Sox could still move one or even multiple players from this group without necessarily embarking on a full-scale rebuild, these moves would represent a clear step back from contending not only in 2023 but likely in 2024 at the very least — quite possibly longer.

Dylan Cease, RHP, 27 | $5.3MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2024-25

Trading Cease would amount to waving a white flag not only on this season but on the entire rebuild that the Sox went through from 2016-20. Cease finished runner-up to Justin Verlander in American League Cy Young voting last year and was so dominant — 2.20 ERA, 30.4% strikeout rate, 6.4 bWAR in 184 innings — that he might’ve won in another year where he wasn’t chasing a historic comeback effort from a future Hall of Famer.

Cease’s velocity, strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate are all down a bit this season, but not in glaring, concerning fashion. He’s sporting a 4.15 ERA, though practically all the damage against him came at the hands of the Rays last week when the hottest team in baseball tagged him for seven runs. Cease won’t turn 28 until December. He’s a power-armed, bat-missing monster with two years of arbitration remaining after the current season. Pitchers like this almost never get traded, and it’s extra-tough to see the White Sox biting the bullet and making a move, since doing so just feels like a giant concession. If they do reach that point, Cease could generate one of the biggest hauls in recent trade deadline memory.

Michael Kopech, RHP, 27 | $2.05MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2024-25

It’s been a poor start for Kopech (7.01 ERA in 25 2/3 innings) thanks to wobbly command that has manifested in a career-high 11.1% walk rate and, more problematically, a career-worst 2.81 HR/9 mark. Still, he’s a 27-year-old who once ranked as the sport’s top pitching prospect and as recently as 2021-22 logged a combined 3.53 ERA, 26.7% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate in 188 2/3 innings.

Kopech spent nearly all of the 2021 season in the bullpen as he worked back from Tommy John surgery and fanned a gaudy 36.1% of his opponents in that role. He’s a high-upside arm and has already seen his average fastball creep up from 95.1 mph in 2022 to 96.2 mph in 2023. Teams would love to get their hands on Kopech right now, and if he can cut back on the walks and homers, his value will only increase. This trade wouldn’t necessarily be the white flag that the Cease trade would be, but it’s hard to see Kopech going unless the Sox are pessimistic about their chances in the next couple of seasons as well.

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There are other names to consider, though each comes with plenty of red flags. Yoan Moncada is signed through 2024 and controllable through a 2025 club option, but he’s been neither healthy enough nor consistently productive enough to make the remaining $43.1MM in guarantees on his deal feel palatable for a trade partner. Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jimenez, Andrew Vaughn and Aaron Bummer are all signed or controlled through at least 2026 (2027 in Robert’s case), which lessens any urgency to move those players. As it stands, the Sox would be selling low on anyone from that group of talented players. No one from that group feels likely to be a serious trade candidate this summer.

Of the three buckets listed above — “rental,” “one extra year” and “longer-term” — the rental pieces are the likeliest to go. Selling anything beyond that point, particularly a face of the franchise like Anderson or a controllable Cy Young-caliber talent like Cease, would likely signal a step back and longer-term rebuilding effort just two years after the Sox sought to emerge from their prior rebuild. Owner Jerry Reinsdorf is as loyal as they come, but one can imagine that the current meltdown could test even his patience; GM Rick Hahn candidly acknowledged last week in public comments that his job is likely on the line.

The White Sox still have a couple months to try to turn things around, but if things don’t improve in a hurry, then many of the names listed above will the most frequently discussed players on the 2023 summer rumor mill as contending teams look to beef up their rosters in advance of a postseason push.

White Sox Appear Likely To Move On From Jose Abreu

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For the past nine seasons, Jose Abreu has been a White Sox mainstay, serving as their primary first baseman and displaying uncanny durability by appearing in 93.6% of the team’s possible games. With his three-year, $50MM contract now drawing to a close, however, it’s fair to wonder whether the 35-year-old (36 in January) has played his final game with the ChiSox. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote recently that the Sox plan to let Abreu move on in free agency this winter, and Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times offers a similar sentiment, writing that the Sox are planning to move Andrew Vaughn back to his natural position, first base.

Certainly, there’s room for both Vaughn and Abreu on the roster, but such an arrangement inherently pushes the Sox to divide first base, designated hitter and corner outfield duties between Abreu, Vaughn and slugger Eloy Jimenez. Both Vaughn and Jimenez are among the game’s worst-ranked defenders in the outfield. Jimenez has posted -15 Defensive Runs Saved and -16 Outs Above Average in 1957 career innings in the outfield. Vaughn effectively matched those totals (-14 DRS, -16 OAA) in 2022 alone, through just 645 innings. Moving on from Abreu would allow Vaughn to play his natural position with Jimenez seeing the lion’s share of playing time at designated hitter.

Also telling is Van Schouwen reporting that the Sox’ decision to re-sign Abreu the last time he reached free agency, following the 2019 season, was a decision directly from owner Jerry Reinsdorf. The front office “was not 100% behind” the idea of re-signing Abreu to a long-term deal, but Reinsdorf himself put forth the $50MM offer to Abreu after the slugger had accepted a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer.

On the one hand, that ownership-driven decision saddled the team with some less-than-ideal defensive alignments for the next three seasons. Jimenez was already established at the time of the signing. Vaughn had already been drafted and was widely expected to be a fast riser through the system. There was no clear defensive fit on the roster for all three.

On the other, Abreu more than justified the expenditure, playing all but 15 of the White Sox’ games over that three-year term and posting a combined .289/.366/.489 slash (137 wRC+). He was the decisive first-place finisher in 2020 American League MVP voting and followed that with a 30-homer campaign in 2021. Even this past season, as Abreu’s power dipped, he topped a .300 batting average and struck out in a career-low 16.2% of his plate appearances.

That said, merely writing off this year’s power outage would be an oversimplification. Abreu’s .304/.378/.466 batting line was still excellent (137 wRC+), but he turned in a career-high 47.9% ground-ball rate and elevated the ball with diminishing frequency as the summer wore on. He hit just four home runs after the All-Star break and only six from July 1 through season’s end. Two years removed from hitting 19 home runs in the truncated 60-game season and watching a Herculean 32.8% of his fly-balls leave the yard for home runs, Abreu hit just 15 homers through 157 games and saw that HR/FB ratio plummet to 9.6%.

Again, there’s little denying that Abreu’s end-of-the-day results in 2022 remained excellent, but they were buoyed by a .350 average on balls in play that a plodding slugger of his ilk will be hard-pressed to sustain, particularly if nearly half his batted balls are hit on the ground. Furthermore, the White Sox and any other potential suitors will be more concerned with what they project him to do moving forward. If there are doubts about his ability to elevate the ball and rediscover his power stroke, that’ll weigh on his earning power in free agency. However, if other clubs are confident in his ability to either repeat his 2022 output or, even better, reestablish himself as an annual 30-homer threat, then Nelson Cruz has proven that there could be healthy paydays even into a player’s early 40s.

The other element to consider in Abreu’s future with the Sox, or lack thereof, is the team’s already bloated payroll. Chicago has $121MM in guaranteed money on next year’s books, per Roster Resource, and that’s before exercising Tim Anderson’s $12.5MM club option and before outfielder AJ Pollock likely exercises a $10MM player option. Add in a projected $27.4MM in arbitration salaries (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), and the South Siders are at a payroll of roughly $170MM, not including pre-arbitration players to round out the 26-man roster.

This past season’s $193MM Opening Day payroll was a franchise record, and the Sox are within striking distance of that sum before even making a single move to address the 2023 roster. Viewed through that lens, it’s less surprising that the Sox appear poised to move on from their longtime first baseman, even if it won’t be an easy sell for fans who’ve grown to love Abreu during his nine years with the team.

José Abreu: No Talks With White Sox About New Contract

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White Sox first baseman José Abreu is on the verge of reaching free agency again, heading back to the open market once the offseason begins in November. He spoke to the media today and answered questions about his future, including one about whether he plans on returning to the field in 2023. “Of course, I love baseball,” Abreu said, as relayed by James Fegan of The Athletic. Abreu goes on to say that talks with the Chicago front office about a new contract have not taken place and that he will take some time to think about his next steps.

The fact that Abreu doesn’t want to rush this decision is fairly sensible, given that his previous foray into free agency was very brief. He was given a $17.8MM qualifying offer by the White Sox at the conclusion of the 2019 season and eventually accepted. One week later, he and the club agreed to a three-year, $50MM deal which replaced that QO. Instead, Abreu received a $5MM signing bonus, $11MM salary in 2020, $16MM in 2021 and $18MM in 2022.

That deal could hardly have gone much better for the club, with Abreu continuing to be an excellent hitter in that time. In the shortened 2020 season, he hit 19 home runs and produced an overall batting line of .317/.370/.617. That production was 64% better than league average by measure of wRC+ and Abreu earned American League MVP honors while helping the club make the postseason for the first time since 2008.

He couldn’t quite maintain that torrid pace over an entire season, but still had a great campaign in 2021. He launched another 30 long balls and slashed .261/.351/.481, wRC+ of 125. He sacrificed some power for average here in 2022 but still with great results overall. He’s gone over the fence 15 times so far while hitting .304/.378/.445 for a wRC+ of 137.

Given his continued production and strong reputation off the field as a clubhouse leader, it would be fairly logical for the Sox to want him back. However, there might also be a couple of factors working against that course of action. For one thing, there’s the team’s budget. The White Sox set a franchise record by running out an Opening Day payroll of $129MM in 2021, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but then vaulted way past that here in 2022 by getting to $193MM.

There’s already about $121MM committed to next year’s team, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, but with some key expenses not yet factored in. Tim Anderson’s $12.5MM option is a lock to be exercised while Lucas Giolito will get a raise via arbitration. He made $7.45MM this year and will likely get above eight figures for 2023. Those two contracts will get the club into the $145MM range while still not including arbitration salaries for Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech and others. If they’re willing to spend at a similar level this year, they could certainly fit in a contract for Abreu, though that would leave them with fewer resources to address other areas of need such as the pitching staff. Yesterday, general manager Rick Hahn told Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times that the club was likely to be more active in the trade market than in free agency, seemingly a reflection of the club’s payroll situation.

There’s also the fact that the Sox have a potential in-house replacement for Abreu already on the roster in the form of Andrew Vaughn. He is in just his second season in the majors and has hit .273/.323/.433, producing a wRC+ of 115. That’s a bit below what Abreu has done in recent years, though Vaughn is still just 24 years old and could potentially still have room to grow.

There’s a big problem with Vaughn’s current role on the team, however, which is his glove. A first baseman in college and in the minors, Vaughn moved to the outfield due to Abreu already being entrenched as the team’s everyday option at first. The move has not suited Vaughn at all, as he’s produced -16 Outs Above Average on the grass in 2022, the lowest mark of any outfielder in the league this year. His -10.4 Ultimate Zone Rating is also the lowest for an MLB outfielder on the season while his -14 Defensive Runs Saved is among the bottom five.

Due to that horrid work in the field, Vaughn is giving back all of his offensive production and then some. Despite being an above-average hitter, he’s actually been a sub-replacement level player this year, according to the calculations of FanGraphs. They say that Vaughn’s fWAR for the season is -0.4, while Baseball Reference has him at an even zero. Perhaps it’s worth it for the Sox to consider letting Abreu walk and moving Vaughn back to his natural position, as that would both allow Vaughn to become a more productive member of the team and also free up resources to address other areas of the roster.

Of course, the club could also consider re-signing Abreu and then trading Vaughn, though that path is a little less smooth.  MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took a look at this year’s crop of free agent first basemen, with Abreu coming in at the top of the class alongside Josh Bell. Although Abreu is turning 36 in January, his continued success at the plate will surely lead to multi-year deals with a significant salary. Supposing Chicago does re-sign Abreu, they would then have to find a trade partner willing to give up cheap pitching for a first baseman, which may not be easy.

However it plays out, keeping the same arrangement in 2023 seems like something the Sox should avoid. Despite a roster loaded with talent, the club disappointed this year by slumping to an 80-80 record so far and missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019. Defense was likely a big factor, as the team-wide DRS of -32 is one of the five worst in the league, their -16 OAA one of the ten worst and their -41.1 UZR dead last.

White Sox Activate Andrew Vaughn, Place Lucas Giolito On IL

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The White Sox announced they’ve reinstated first baseman/corner outfielder Andrew Vaughn from the injured list. In a corresponding move, ace Lucas Giolito was placed on the COVID-19 injured list.

Vaughn hasn’t played since late April due to a hand injury. The team initially kept him on the active roster in hopes he’d avoid an IL stint altogether, but he required a bit more time than initially hoped. Chicago finally sent him to the IL on May 5 (retroactive to three days prior). He embarked upon a rehab assignment with Triple-A Charlotte within a week, however, and he makes his return after two games with the Knights.

A former #3 overall pick, Vaughn has shown the kind of offensive promise the White Sox have dreamed on through the season’s first few weeks. He’s hitting .283/.367/.566 with four homers in 16 games after a roughly league average .235/.309/.396 showing as a rookie. The right-handed batter figures to rotate between first, DH and both corner outfield spots and assume a middle-of-the-order role while the team is without Eloy Jiménez.

Giolito’s IL placement seems to be precautionary. The team announced he’s been experiencing virus-like symptoms for the past couple days but is expected to return next week (via James Fegan of the Athletic). The right-hander has a 2.70 ERA in 26 2/3 innings over his first five starts; he made his most recent appearance on Tuesday, tossing seven innings of one-run ball in a win over the Guardians.

White Sox Place Andrew Vaughn On 10-Day IL

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TODAY: Vaughn was officially sent to the 10-day IL today, with a retroactive May 2 placement. The White Sox called up Danny Mendick to take Vaughn’s spot on the active roster.

MAY 4: The White Sox have been arguably the team most affected by injuries in the first month of the 2022 season, with many of their position players and starting pitchers having missed some time, whether they’ve gone on the injured list or not. These various maladies have dragged them down to an 11-13 start to the season. It appears they’ve taken yet another blow, according to Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times, with Andrew Vaughn likely headed to the injured list before the team opens a series against Boston on Friday.

Vaughn was hit by a pitch on his hand in a game last week and, despite negative X-rays, hasn’t played since. “It’s kind of progressed, but it’s still aching when I swing, real bad,” Vaughn said. “Like it’s kind of blocking me from swinging because of the pain. I feel it all the time.” Injuries to outfielders Eloy Jimenez, AJ Pollock and Luis Robert had opened up some regular playing time for Vaughn and he answered the call by hitting .283/.367/.566 this year, good enough for a 177 wRC+. Unfortunately, that will all have to be put on hold until he can recuperate.

There is at least some good news for the Pale Hose, however, as Van Schouwen also reports that Yoan Moncada is likely joining the team next week. The third baseman has yet to make his season debut due to an oblique strain. With Moncada out, most of the playing time at the hot corner has been going to Jake Burger, who’s hitting .250/.270/.383. That line amounts to a wRC+ of 91, or 9% below league average. Moncada’s wRC+ for his career is 114 and it was 122 last year, meaning he should provide the lineup a boost as long as he can return and produce at his usual level.

The bullpen also should get a reinforcement soon, with Joe Kelly likely making his debut with the White Sox next week. While with the Dodgers last year, the righty was sidelined with a bicep injury. The Sox signed him in the offseason knowing that he was still working his way back from that issue and likely wouldn’t be ready for the start of the season. Since switching from the rotation to the bullpen, Kelly has emerged as a useful fireballer. From 2017 to 2021, he threw 229 innings with a 3.62 ERA, 24.8% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate.

As for the rotation, Johnny Cueto seems ready suit up for the White Sox as well. Signed to a minor league deal in early April, he’s been gradually building up his arm strength with the Triple-A Charlotte Knights. After a nice bounceback season with the Giants last year where he threw 114 2/3 innings of 4.08 ERA ball, he signed with the White Sox on a deal that will pay him $4.2MM once he’s selected to the big league club. With Lance Lynn on the shelf for a while, a spot in the rotation opened up for Vince Velasquez, who has a 4.58 ERA through four starts, with strikeout and walk rates roughly in line with his career numbers. The weakest link in the rotation so far, however, has been Dallas Keuchel, who has an 8.40 ERA at the moment, along with a measly 9.8% strikeout rate and 13.4% walk rate. That’s a small sample of just four starts, but it continues a trend that began last year, when the lefty put up a 5.28 ERA and 13.2% strikeout rate. He’s in the last guaranteed year of his three-year, though there is a $20MM club/vesting option for 2023. If Keuchel were to reach 160 innings pitched this year, that would become guaranteed.

AL Notes: Blue Jays, White Sox

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The Blue Jays have sent southpaw Tayler Saucedo to the 10-day injured list with right hip discomfort. Taking his roster spot, Bowden Francis has been brought back to the active roster, per Keegan Matheson of MLB.com (via Twitter). Francis was only just optioned to Triple-A yesterday. Saucedo was roughed up in 2 2/3 innings of work, yielding four earned runs and six hits, including three home runs.

  • The Blue Jays have a couple of key players that might be coming back soon. Teoscar Hernandez and Hyun Jin Ryu have both returned to baseball activities and could be gearing up for a rehab assignment, per The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath. Ross Stripling has held the line in Ryu’s stead, but the offense could use a jolt of Hernandez’s trademark power.
  • Yoan Moncada is beginning his rehab assignment today, per the lineup card posted by the Charlotte Knights’ Twitter account. An oblique strain has kept Moncada out of the lineup for the entirety of the season thus far. 26-year-old  Jake Burger has been starting games at third in his stead, slashing .260/.275/.420, good for a 105 wRC+ despite walking at just a 1.9% clip.
  • X-rays on Andrew Vaughn’s hand came back negative. He was hit on the hand with a pitch in yesterday’s game. He’s day-to-day for now, per The Athletic’s James Fegan (via Twitter). Vaughn has gotten off to a hot start at the plate, slashing .283/.367/.566 across 60 plate appearances.

Athletics Interested In Andrew Vaughn

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The White Sox were among the many teams showing interest in the Athletics’ available starters, with Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas on Chicago’s target list.  Manaea has since been dealt to the Padres, with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reporting that the White Sox “nearly” landed Manaea instead, and are still looking at Montas.  However, the A’s want young slugger Andrew Vaughn back in return, and the Sox are balking at the demand.

It isn’t surprising that the A’s would make such a big ask, considering that Montas is under team control through the 2023 season.  Likewise, it is natural that the White Sox wouldn’t be eager to part with a former star prospect who was already in the majors less than two years after being picked third overall in the 2019 draft.

Oakland could also be looking to leverage Chicago’s sudden lack of pitching depth, as Lance Lynn (knee surgery) will be on the injured list until late May and Lucas Giolito (abdominal tightness) is also on the verge of being placed on the IL for what looks like could be the majority of April.  The White Sox did recently sign Johnny Cueto, but the veteran will need some ramp-up time after missing all of Spring Training, and might not be available for a few weeks anyway.

Dylan Cease, Dallas Keuchel, Michael Kopech, and Vince Velasquez are now the top four in the White Sox rotation, with Reynaldo Lopez, Jimmy Lambert, or Tanner Banks candidates to fill in for Giolito.  Adding a pitcher of Montas’ caliber would be a major help both in the immediate future and beyond, as this is the last guaranteed season of Keuchel’s contract, and it seems unlikely that the Sox will exercise their $20MM club option on his services for 2023.

Then again, Vaughn is also a possible long-term answer as an heir apparent to 35-year-old Jose Abreu, who is also in the final season of his contract.  There does remain a solid chance that the Sox will sign Abreu to another extension, so Vaughn could play in a first base/DH timeshare with Abreu, or perhaps see more time as a corner outfielder, even if Vaughn isn’t ideally suited for outfield work.

Another complicating factor is that the White Sox could also use Vaughn’s bat right now, given that the injury bug has also extended to the position player side.  Yoan Moncada is on the 10-day IL with an oblique strain and AJ Pollock left yesterday’s game with a sore hamstring, though Pollock doesn’t believe the injury is terribly serious.

Vaughn hit .235/.309/.396 with 15 homers over 469 plate appearances in his 2021 rookie season, resulting in a 93 OPS+/94 wRC+.  These are certainly respectable numbers for a player’s first taste of the majors, especially since Vaughn still has so little overall pro experience.  After being drafted, Vaughn played in 55 minor league games in 2019 but then didn’t see any official game action at all in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season, instead doing his work at Chicago’s alternate training site.  Vaughn spoke with The Athletic’s James Fegan about his rookie year and the adjustments he has made both at the plate and in the field, which includes even taking some grounders at third base as a possible fallback option in Moncada’s absence.

Between Vaughn’s prospect pedigree and his big league-readiness, he is the type of player the A’s have traditionally targeted on the trade market, particularly during their most recent selloff of notable veterans.  The likes of Cristian Pache, Shea Langoliers, Adrian Martinez, Kevin Smith, and Adam Oller have all been acquired since the end of the lockout, with Pache, Smith, and Oller already on the active roster.

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