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Looking Ahead To Upcoming Club Options: NL West

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We’re roughly a third of the way through the 2023 season. Players have had a couple months to build something of a performance track record that’ll play a role in their future contracts. With that in mind, MLBTR will take a look over the coming days at players whose contracts contain team or mutual options to gauge the early trajectory for those upcoming decisions.

We’ll go division by division and open things in the National League West:

Arizona Diamondbacks

Chafin lingered in free agency over the winter after opting out of his deal with the Tigers. The seeming lack of market interest was perplexing given the lefty reliever’s consistent effectiveness over the past few seasons. He’s carried that over into his second stint in the desert. Through 20 1/3 innings, Chafin owns a 3.10 ERA. He’s punched out 36% of opposing hitters on a huge 16.2% swinging strike percentage, both of which would be career-high marks. He’s not a prototypical fireballing reliever but he’s demonstrated he’s capable of missing bats and thriving in high-leverage situations for the past few years. The $6.5MM net decision on next year’s option looks more than reasonable if he keeps this up.

  • Zach Davies: $5.5MM mutual option ($300K buyout, rises to $500K with 16+ starts)

Davies has been limited to three starts by a left oblique strain. He has allowed eight runs with a modest 10:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 12 2/3 innings. There’s not much to go on yet in terms of 2023 performance but Davies looked like a borderline fifth starter the previous two years. The Diamondbacks have enough young pitching they seem likelier to buy him out unless the soft-tossing righty rediscovers his 2019-20 form for the stretch run.

  • Miguel Castro: $5MM option vests with 60+ appearances; would become $6MM player option with 40+ games finished (no buyout)

Castro has already pitched 26 times since signing with Arizona over the winter. He’s on pace to easily surpass the 60-appearance threshold needed to vest next year’s $5MM option if he can avoid the injured list. It could be a closer call as to whether he can turn that guaranteed $5MM salary into a $6MM player option; Castro has finished 12 games thus far, putting him just off the 40-game pace he’d need to do so. (He’s on pace for 36 games finished). Castro has been effective — a 2.22 ERA with roughly average strikeout, walk and swinging strike numbers through 24 1/3 innings — so vesting the player option and retesting the market isn’t out of the question.

Melancon struggled to a 4.66 ERA in 56 innings during his first season in Arizona. He hasn’t pitched this year on account of a Spring Training shoulder strain. Melancon might return in the second half but this is trending towards the team buying him out.

Colorado Rockies

Márquez underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this month. He’ll miss the majority of next season as he rehabs. A healthy Márquez would’ve made this an easy call for the Rockies to exercise but the procedure means they’ll buy him out. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Rox try to bring him back on a lesser salary or a multi-year deal with an eye towards 2025.

Hand’s peripherals had fallen back between 2021-22 from his All-Star peak. He’s continued to keep runs off the board and seen a notable bounceback in his strikeout rate since a Spring Training deal with Colorado. Hand owns a 3.20 ERA through 19 2/3 frames while striking out 33.7% of batters faced on a decent 11.6% swinging strike percentage. The veteran southpaw has dominated left-handed hitters and is yet to allow a home run this season. If he maintains this form, he’ll be one of the top reliever trade candidates this summer. If Colorado hangs onto him, they could be faced with an interesting decision as to whether to keep him around for an extra $6.5MM next winter.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers signed Muncy to a $13.5MM deal last summer even as he was amidst his worst season since landing in L.A. They’ve been rewarded with a massive bounceback showing. Muncy is tied for second in the majors with 17 home runs. He’s only hitting .208 but carrying a strong .340 on-base percentage thanks to an elite 15.8% walk rate. The $10MM price point would be an easy decision for the Dodgers if Muncy keeps up anything approaching this pace.

Los Angeles brought Hudson back last summer on the heels of a season-ending ACL tear. The veteran reliever hasn’t recovered as quickly from that procedure as he’d hoped. Hudson hasn’t pitched yet this season. He told reporters last night he’ll throw a bullpen session this week but is without a timeline for a return to game action (via Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times). It remains to be seen how he’ll look when he takes the mound.

  • Alex Reyes: $3MM team option with escalators ($100K buyout)

The Dodgers took a $1.1MM flier on Reyes after he lost the 2022 season to shoulder surgery. He’s on the 60-day injured list and not expected to be a factor until around the All-Star Break. This one remains to be determined based on his post-rehab form.

  • Blake Treinen (option value between $1-7MM dependent on time spent on IL)

Treinen underwent surgery to repair the rotator cuff and labrum in his throwing shoulder last November. He won’t pitch much, if at all, this season. Treinen’s contract contains an option with a floating value between $1MM and $7MM depending on how much time he spends on the injured list and the issue that puts him on the shelf. Its precise value is yet to be determined, but MLBTR has confirmed it’ll land towards the lower end of that range given Treinen’s surgery.

San Diego Padres

  • Nick Martinez: team has two-year, $32MM option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option

Martinez has taken on a similar swing role as he served during his first year in San Diego. The right-hander started his first four outings and pitched reasonably well. He was nevertheless bumped back into relief thereafter. For the second consecutive season, Martinez has proven a key multi-inning arm out of the bullpen. He’s posted a 1.35 ERA with a quality 20:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 20 relief innings, holding opponents to a pitiful .240/.278/.267 batting line.

There’s little question of Martinez’s effectiveness in a relief role, though a $16MM average annual value could be pricy if the organization isn’t planning on giving him another look out of the rotation. Perhaps Martinez’s production over the final four months makes this a clearer decision for San Diego by season’s end. As of now, it looks like a borderline call — not too dissimilar from Martinez’s question of whether to opt out of three years and $18MM last winter. The Padres liked him enough to subsequently re-sign him to a $26MM guarantee with the complex option structure.

  • Michael Wacha: team has two-year, $32MM option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option (with successive player options for 2025-26)

Wacha lingered in free agency last winter. Clubs seemed reluctant to buy into his solid results for the Red Sox, a reflection of middling strikeout and ground-ball numbers. Since landing in San Diego, he’s basically repeating last year’s script. The run prevention is excellent; he’s allowed a 3.45 ERA through 57 1/3 innings over ten starts. Wacha is again throwing strikes and keeping runs off the board despite roughly average strikeout and swinging strike rates.

Maintaining a mid-3.00s ERA for a second straight season might build confidence in his ability to outperform ERA estimators that suggest he’s more of a solid #4 starter than a mid-rotation arm. That said, Wacha doesn’t look all that different now than he did three months ago, when he signed a four-year guarantee with a $6.5MM average annual value. A jump to the $16MM per-year range could be a tougher sell for San Diego, although there’s little doubt Wacha would opt out of the final three years and $18.5MM on his contract if he keeps pitching like this and the Padres decline their end.

San Francisco Giants

Cobb has pitched well since signing a two-year deal with San Francisco over the 2021-22 offseason. He carries a 3.05 ERA through his first 11 starts this year. Cobb’s 60.6% ground-ball rate is stellar and he’s posted average strikeout and walk numbers (21.3% and 6.7%, respectively). An $8MM net decision would be an easy call for the Giants to exercise if Cobb maintains this pace. He’s dealt with injuries in the past but managed 149 2/3 innings over 28 starts last year and has avoided the IL in 2023.

All stats through play Monday.

Diamondbacks Sign Andrew Chafin

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Feb. 15, 2:40pm: Jon Heyman of the New York Post provides details on the bonuses. Chafin will receive $250K by appearing in 55, 60, 65 and 70 games. There’s also a one-time $250K bonus for getting traded.

Feb. 15, 11:40am:  Chafin has passed his physical, and the Diamondbacks have formally announced his signing.

Feb. 11: The Diamondbacks have agreed to a reunion with Andrew Chafin, as the veteran left-hander will rejoin his original team on a one-year deal with a club option for the 2024 season.  Chafin will earn a $5.5MM salary in 2023, and Arizona’s club option is worth $7.25MM (with a $750K buyout).  Up to $1MM in bonus money is also available for Chafin if he makes at least 55 appearances in 2023.  Chafin is represented by Meister Sports Management.

Chafin was drafted 43rd overall by the D’Backs in 2011 and he spent his first seven MLB seasons in an Arizona uniform before being dealt to Chicago in a 2020 deadline swap.  That initial stint with the Diamondbacks led to mostly positive numbers, as Chafin logged a 3.68 ERA over 271 2/3 innings in his first go-around with Arizona, though he was struggling (albeit in the small sample size of the abbreviated 2020 season) at the time of his trade to the Cubs.

In the two full seasons since that trade, Chafin has taken things to another level while pitching for the Cubs, A’s and Tigers.  Over 126 innings since the start of the 2021 campaign, Chafin has a 2.29 ERA, 47.9% grounder rate, 7.5% walk rate, and 25.7% strikeout rate.  That above-average K% is further bolstered by very strong chase rates in the last two seasons and an 87th-percentile 31.4% whiff rate in 2022.  Chafin has also done a very good job of inducing soft contact.

On the basis of a good platform year with the Tigers in 2022, Chafin declined a $6.5MM player option for 2023 in order to seek out a longer-term contract in free agency.  Even though Chafin was one of the better relievers on the marker this winter, he couldn’t find a multi-year pact, and will now end up receiving slightly less (in guaranteed money) than the amount he rejected on his player option.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently wrote that Matt Strahm’s two-year, $15MM deal with the Phillies seemed to throw off the market for left-handed relievers, to the extent that Chafin, Matt Moore, and Zack Britton were all still looking for new deals despite quite a bit of interest from multiple clubs.

It puts some added pressure on Chafin to continue his good form as he enters his age-33 season, yet he’ll get to pitch in a comfortable and familiar environment in Arizona.  The deal becomes a two-year, $12.75MM pact if the Diamondbacks do exercise their club option, which still unexpectedly puts Chafin behind Strahm in total value.

From the Diamondbacks’ perspective, landing Chafin at a relative discount price is a very nice outcome for a team in sore need of bullpen help.  After the relief corps was a weak link in 2022, the D’Backs have responded by signing Miguel Castro and Scott McGough to MLB contracts, and brought in a wide array of experienced arms (including Jeurys Familia, Austin Brice, Zach McAlister, Jandel Gustave, Sam Clay, and several others) to camp on minor league deals.

Arizona heads into Spring Training with plenty of competition for bullpen jobs, so Chafin will be one of relatively few Diamondback pitchers that are assured of spots on the Opening Day roster.  With an unsettled closer’s position also up for grabs, Chafin could even be a candidate to make some saves, even though he has mostly worked as a setup man throughout his career.

MLBTR ranked Chafin 39th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and projected the left-hander for a two-year, $18MM deal.  Jurickson Profar and Michael Wacha are the final two players still unsigned from that 50-player list.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link) was the first to report the signing, and the general financial parameters.  Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (Twitter links) had the specific financial breakdown, and reported that the D’Backs held a club option.

Angels Have Shown Interest In Elvis Andrus, Michael Wacha, Gary Sánchez

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The Angels didn’t make any earth-shattering moves this offseason but have nonetheless been busy adding complementary pieces to their squad. They’ve signed utility player Brandon Drury, left-hander Tyler Anderson, righty Carlos Estévez and outfielder Brett Phillips, in addition to trading for infielder Gio Urshela and outfielder Hunter Renfroe. With just over a week until Spring Training, it seems they are still not done, with Jon Heyman of The New York Post reporting they’ve been in touch on Elvis Andrus, Michael Wacha, Gary Sánchez, Andrew Chafin and Zack Britton.

The interest in Britton was reported last week but those four other names show that the club is casting a wide net in its continued search for upgrades to the roster. The interest in Chafin makes plenty of sense since he and Britton are both left-handed relievers. They are in very different positions as free agents, however, with Britton coming off a couple of injury-plagued seasons that followed a lengthy run as one of the best relievers in the league.

Chafin, on the other hand, has been fairly consistent for a few years and has been even better recently. Even though he had a rough showing in the shortened 2020 campaign, he’s still posted a 3.05 ERA over the past six seasons. Isolating that to just 2021 and 2022, his ERA was 2.29 with a 25.7% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 47.9% ground ball rate. Either of those two, or any of the other southpaw relievers still available, would be a logical addition for an Angels club that currently has 35-year-old Aaron Loup as its best option in that department. Loup posted a ridiculous 0.95 ERA with the Mets in 2021 but saw that number jump to 3.84 last year. The interest in those pitchers seems to be wide, however, with at least 10 teams seemingly in the running.

Andrus, 34, is a veteran shortstop who has appeared in each of the past 14 seasons. Generally considered to be a strong defender and baserunner, his bat has been inconsistent, though he’s coming off a strong platform in that regard. From 2018 to 2021, he hit just .255/.302/.360 for a wRC+ of 74, but he launched 17 home runs last year and slashed .249/.303/.404 for a wRC+ of 105. When combined with his glovework and 18 steals, he was worth 3.5 wins above replacement on the season. His market has been fairly quiet so far, with the Red Sox the only other club connected to him this offseason.

The Angels don’t really have a clear shortstop at the moment, with David Fletcher, Luis Rengifo and Urshela potential options there. All three of them have spent more time at other positions so far in their careers. Fletcher would be the strongest defensive option of that bunch, having received strong grades from advanced metrics. However, he’s generally fared poorly at the plate, outside of the shortened 2020 season. His career batting line is currently .278/.324/.360, wRC+ of 87. Rengifo and Urshela were both above average at the plate last year but got poor marks for their work at short. If Andrus were brought in, he could firm up the position and bump those guys into spending more time at second or the corners. Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh should take third and first base, respectively, but both are question marks after injury-marred seasons. Having Urshela, Fletcher, Rengifo and Drury on the roster for one second base job and bench roles would be crowded, but any one player going to the IL would quickly free up some opportunities, and some of them are capable of playing the outfield as well.

Wacha, 31, is considered by many to be the top starting pitcher still unsigned based on his strong 2022 season, but his work prior to that season is mixed. With the Red Sox last year, he posted a 3.32 ERA over 127 1/3 innings, striking out just 20.2% of opponents but keeping his walks down to a 6% rate. He made multiple trips to the injured list on the year, however, which is likely a concern for interested clubs. He hasn’t hit the 130-inning mark since 2017 and has seen his results oscillate wildly since then. He had a 3.20 ERA in 2018 but made only 15 starts that year. That was followed by ERAs of 4.76, 6.62 and 5.05 over the next three years before the solid 2022 campaign.

That shakiness aside, there is a fit with the Halos. The club currently has five solid rotations options in Shohei Ohtani, Anderson, Reid Detmers, José Suarez and Patrick Sandoval. However, they have generally used a six-man rotation with Ohtani around, in order to limit his overall workload with him also playing in the lineup almost every day. That arrangement could suit Wacha well, since he hasn’t been able to stay healthy over a full season in recent years. He’s reportedly looking for a two-year deal and has also been connected to the Orioles and Twins, though that was before those clubs acquired Cole Irvin and Pablo López, respectively.

Sánchez, 30, had an extreme profile early on his career, tearing the cover off the ball but not getting great reviews for his glovework. Those extremes have been sanded down in recent years, as his work at the plate has cooled but his defense has seemingly been less concerning of late. With the Twins last year, he hit .205/.282/.377 for a wRC+ of 89, was considered above average by Defensive Runs Saved and got positive marks for his framing from both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. He was connected to the Giants at one point this offseason but that was before they agreed to terms with Roberto Pérez.

The club has a couple of catching options in Max Stassi and Logan O’Hoppe. However, they were connected to Willson Contreras earlier this winter and seem open to bolstering that area of the roster. Stassi was great in 2020 and 2021 but is coming off a down season at the plate where he hit just .180/.267/.303. O’Hoppe is a highly-touted prospect that came over to the club in the Brandon Marsh trade. He had an excellent year but has played just five major league games and none in Triple-A yet. It’s possible he just hits the ground running this year but it wouldn’t hurt to have another option since not all prospects immediately click at the big league level.

Financially, the club is in record territory but it doesn’t seem as though they’re maxed out. Their previous high for an Opening Day payroll was last year’s $189MM figure, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’re currently around $206MM for the upcoming campaign, per Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax figure of $220MM. That latter number is somewhat close to the lowest tax threshold of $233MM, though general manager Perry Minasian has said there’s no mandate from ownership to stay under that line.

It’s unlikely that the Angels will ultimately land all or even multiple members of this group, but there’s logic to the varied approach. The club already has star players in Mike Trout, Ohtani and, if healthy, Rendon. What they have lacked in recent years is strong depth to cover for injuries or underperformance elsewhere on the roster. It seems the club has some awareness of that fact and is setting its sights on packing the roster with various quality players so that cavities don’t develop throughout the year. Speaking of Rendon, Heyman reports that he’s feeling fantastic. He was excellent for the Angels in 2020, the first year of his deal with the club. He hit .286/.418/.497 for a wRC+ of 152. However, injuries have limited him to just 102 games combined over the past couple of seasons, with diminished production when on the field. If his health cooperates, he could be a difference maker for the club this year, but it also seems like they’re planning to have plenty of fallback options around the roster. It will be an interesting season for the Angels since it’s the last year before Ohtani is slated to reach free agency, with fans of many rival clubs hoping that he’s available at the trade deadline. For now though, it seems like the club is still committed to putting together a strong team and avoiding that path.

Angels Interested In Zack Britton

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The Angels are known to be in the market for left-handed bullpen help, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale specifies that the Halos “have strong interest” in Zack Britton’s services.  The two sides have yet to line up on a contract, as Nightengale writes that the Angels’ interest may only hinge on getting Britton at a lower amount than his asking price of roughly $9MM.

It is easy to understand the team’s hesitation, given that Britton has barely pitched (19 total innings) over the last two seasons due to injury.  Bone chips in Britton’s elbow hampered his 2021 performance, and a Tommy John surgery then sidelined the reliever for virtually all of the 2022 campaign.  Though Britton recently held a showcase to display his health for scouts, there’s naturally a good amount of uncertainty over what can be expected from the southpaw as he heads into his age-35 season.

From Britton’s perspective, a $9MM guarantee is a reasonable ask for a pitcher who was arguably baseball’s best reliever from 2014-20, posting elite numbers with the Orioles and Yankees.  As noted by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, Matt Strahm’s two-year, $15MM deal with the Phillies seemed to throw off the market for left-handed relievers, to the point that Britton and fellow free agent southpaws Andrew Chafin and Matt Moore might still be unsigned because they feel they deserve to top Strahm in either total value, average annual value, or both.  (Nightengale writes that Chafin and Moore are also looking for around $9MM, though it isn’t clear if that translates to multi-year deal worth $9MM per season, or if either is open to a one-year commitment.)

Rosenthal’s report also cited the Angels as only one of 10 teams who were still looking at adding a left-handed reliever, so with this many potential suitors, Britton — and Chafin and Moore — might feel there’s enough interest that at least one club will eventually pay up.  Speculatively, each of the three free agents also might be in some sense waiting to see which of the group signs first, as that deal could also reset the market.

The Angels already made one notable bullpen signing this winter in landing Carlos Estevez on a two-year, $13.5MM contract.  The flame-throwing Estevez will factor into a closer mix that also includes Jimmy Herget and Ryan Tepera, but elsewhere in the Halos’ bullpen, Aaron Loup, Jose Quijada, and perhaps Tucker Davidson are the left-handed options.  Since Loup and Quijada were each only okay in 2022, there’s certainly room for the Angels to add more help from the left side, and Britton’s past experience as a closer might also add to the list of ninth-inning candidates.

Signing Britton, Moore, or Chafin would add another noteworthy salary to an Angels payroll that is already projected by Roster Resource to sit at approximately $220.2MM.  Though the Angels haven’t surpassed the luxury tax threshold since 2004, GM Perry Minasian said earlier this winter that owner Arte Moreno had no mandate against staying under the tax line.  As such, there wouldn’t appear to be any obstacle to the Halos topping the $233MM threshold by signing Britton and perhaps another player or two, though naturally the front office might balk if they simply don’t value at a $9MM price point.

One player who isn’t on Anaheim’s radar is Gary Sanchez, Nightengale reports.  Rookie prospect Logan O’Hoppe (acquired from the Phillies in the Brandon Marsh deal last summer) and veteran Max Stassi comprise the Angels’ current catching tandem, with Chad Wallach and Jose Godoy providing more depth in the minors.  The Halos did have interest in Willson Contreras before Contreras signed with the Cardinals, but it isn’t clear if Los Angeles was looking at a catching upgrade in general, or Contreras was just a specific target as the top catcher on the free agent market.

Regardless, it doesn’t appear that Sanchez is under consideration.  The former two-time All-Star has hit only .195/.287/.394 with 49 homers over 1089 plate appearances since the start of the 2020 season, translating to a 90 wRC+.  Between that decline at the plate and Sanchez’s inconsistent defense, the Twins were willing to move on from Sanchez after the season (signing Christian Vazquez instead), and the Giants’ interest in Sanchez may have dried up since San Francisco inked Roberto Perez to a contract earlier today.

Red Sox Have Shown Interest In Matt Moore

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The Red Sox have checked in on free agent reliever Matt Moore this offseason, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (Twitter links). The extent of their interest isn’t known, but Cotillo adds that fellow southpaw Andrew Chafin has not been on Boston’s radar thus far.

Moore and Chafin are arguably the two best remaining free agent relievers. Alongside Will Smith, they’re part of a group of quality left-handers whose market has unexpectedly lingered. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal linked a third of the league (Boston included) to the lefty relief market earlier in the week, but we’ve still not seen any notable movement since Taylor Rogers inked a three-year deal with the Giants before the calendar flipped to 2023.

The 33-year-old Moore spent a decade as a big leaguer starter, battling inconsistency along the way. The former top prospect had a couple strong seasons upon breaking in with the Rays but started to struggle in the wake of 2014 Tommy John surgery. He sandwiched a solid 2016 campaign between a trio of 5.00-plus ERA marks between 2015-18. Moore barely pitched in 2019, spent the ’20 campaign in Japan and was hit hard in his return showing with the Phillies two seasons ago.

Moore inked a minor league deal with the Rangers last offseason. He was in the majors again by mid-April and reinvented himself as a power arm out of the bullpen. Texas deployed him exclusively in relief, calling upon the veteran 63 times. Through 74 innings, Moore posted a stellar 1.95 ERA. He struck out batters at a strong 27.3% clip while generating swinging strikes on a massive 14.7% of his offerings. His fastball averaged around 94 MPH and he got excellent results on both his curveball and changeup, giving him a three-pitch arsenal to deploy in short stints.

The sole red flag in Moore’s 2022 performance was his control. He dished out walks to 12.5% of opponents, a rate more than three percentage points higher than average. ERA estimators like FIP (2.98) and SIERA (3.69) weren’t quite as bullish as his sub-2.00 ERA would suggest, as Moore was probably a bit fortunate to strand 81% of the baserunners he allowed. That said, there’s room for Moore to regress marginally from his 2022 level while still remaining a quality high-leverage option if he can sustain last season’s swing-and-miss prowess.

Moore certainly earned himself a big league deal this time around and he has a case for a multi-year pact even headed into his age-34 campaign. Former Red Sox hurler Matt Strahm secured a two-year, $15MM deal from the Phillies on the heels of a solid but arguably less impressive 3.83 ERA/3.30 SIERA showing.

Chafin has an even stronger argument for a two-year contract. He’s going into his age-33 season and coming off a second straight excellent year. He provided the Tigers 57 1/3 frames of 2.83 ERA ball with a 27.6% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk percentage. That was on the heels of a 1.83 ERA season between the Cubs and A’s in 2021. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible that’s leading to a loftier asking price than is coming from Moore’s camp to explain Boston’s seeming lack of interest in Chafin.

The Red Sox have a fairly straightforward desire for left-handed relief help. They’ve added Joely Rodríguez on a $2MM free agent contract but parted with Darwinzon Hernández and Josh Taylor after seeing Strahm leave in free agency. Rodríguez is the only assured lefty reliever on the 40-man roster, though starting pitching prospects Chris Murphy and Brandon Walter could theoretically find themselves in that mix. The Sox have signed Ryan Sherriff and Matt Dermody to minor league deals in recent days to strengthen the depth. Neither would take them out of the market for Moore, who’d be a more significant acquisition.

The Red Sox currently project for a player payroll in the $192MM range, as tabulated by Roster Resource. More meaningfully, they’re around $219MM in luxury tax obligations. That leaves them approximately $14MM shy of the $233MM base threshold, so a Moore deal would be financially viable while still leaving them some breathing room under the tax for midseason additions should they so desire. The Cubs are the only other team known to have checked in with Moore’s camp this winter, though there are surely numerous unreported suitors.

Latest On Market For Left-Handed Relievers

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With less than three weeks to go until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, most of the top free agents have already signed with clubs for the upcoming season. One segment of the market that’s been strangely quiet, however, is left-handed relief. Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore and Zack Britton are some of the noteworthy southpaws still unattached, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Rangers, Angels, Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs and Mets are interested in their services.

Those three relievers bring varying levels of appeal to the interested clubs. Britton, 35, was arguably the best reliever in the league for an extended stretch though he entered free agency on a down note after a couple of seasons lost to injury. Moore, 34 in June, is in effectively the opposite position of Britton, as he has a lengthy track record of disappointing results but hit the open market on the upswing. Chafin, 33 in June, has been fairly consistent in recent years, apart from a small-sample blip in the shortened 2020 season.

Britton posted an incredible 1.84 ERA over a seven-year stretch from 2014 to 2020, thanks to a bowling ball sinker that bordered on unhittable. He got grounders on a ludicrous 76.2% of balls in play over that time, almost double a typical league average of about 43%. He was limited to just 18 1/3 innings in 2021 before requiring surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow. During that procedure, it was determined that he would also need Tommy John surgery, which put him out of action until late in 2022. He did make it back to the hill last year but his velocity was down and his control was all over the place. He finished the season on the injured list for shoulder fatigue. He would be a risky acquisition at this point given his uncertain health but he recently held a showcase for clubs and will surely entice one of them to take a gamble based on his previous excellence.

Moore was once one of the top prospects in the game and seemed like a rotation building block for the Rays a decade ago. However, Tommy John surgery in 2014 put him out of action for an extended stretch and he struggled once back on the mound. He bounced around to various different clubs for years, including a stint in Japan, but never really got things back on track. But a full-time move to the bullpen last year has seemingly given him a second act, as he posted a 1.95 ERA over 74 innings for the Rangers. His 12.5% walk rate was certainly concerning, but he also struck out 27.3% of batters faced and got grounders at a healthy 43.9% clip.

Chafin has posted a 3.05 ERA from 2017 to the present, even with his rough 2020 campaign. He’s been even better recently, with a 2.29 ERA over the past couple of seasons, striking out 25.7% of batters faced, walking just 7.5% of them and keeping the ball on the ground at a 47.9% clip.

All three pitchers will surely interest clubs to some degree but Rosenthal hears from one executive that the Matt Strahm signing has slowed things down. The Phillies signed him to a two-year, $15MM deal back in December, despite a somewhat shaky track record. He got some good results in his first few seasons, working mostly in relief but with the occasional start. He had an unusual season with the Padres in 2019 as he attempted to become a starter. He made 16 starts that year but posted a 5.29 ERA in that role against a 3.27 mark in 30 relief appearances. Back in the bullpen in 2020, he registered a 2.61 ERA in the shortened season but only got into six games in 2021 due to various injuries. He bounced back with the Red Sox in 2022 with a 3.83 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 36.8% ground ball rate. Each of Moore and Chafin are coming off a stronger 2022 season than Strahm while Britton has a more impressive career overall. Strahm is younger than the rest of them but not by too much, having recently turned 31. Perhaps the free agents are trying to match or top the $15MM guarantee that Strahm secured and has yet to convince a team to pull the trigger on that.

Despite lingering on the market, it doesn’t seem like there’s any shortage of interest. Just about any team with designs on contending could fit another arm into their bullpen and it seems like they’re all keeping tabs here. The Rangers’ southpaw contingent took a blow recently as Brett Martin required shoulder surgery and will likely miss most of the upcoming campaign. They still have Brock Burke, Taylor Hearn and John King in the mix but it wouldn’t hurt to bolster that group. The Angels have Aaron Loup and José Quijada lined up as their primary southpaw relievers but Loup is now 35 and Quijada has control issues. The Astros are a fairly logical fit since their only lefty relievers on the 40-man are Blake Taylor and Parker Mushinski, both of whom have fairly limited track records.

The Red Sox have Joely Rodríguez as their only obvious southpaw reliever, though Chris Sale or James Paxton could move from the rotation at some point since they have each hardly pitched in the past three years. Their various injuries have severely limited their innings recently and they might struggle to handle a starter’s workload for a full season. The Jays have Tim Mayza and Matt Gage as left-handed options in their relief corps, though Yusei Kikuchi spent some time there last year after getting bumped from the rotation, a situation that could play out again this year.

The Brewers have Hoby Milner as their most straightforward lefty reliever, though Wade Miley and Aason Ashby could spend some time there if they get nudged out of a crowded rotation. The Cardinals have Genesis Cabrera slated to be the go-to guy but their other choices are optionable and have limited experience, including Packy Naughton, JoJo Romero and Zack Thompson. The Cubs make a lot of sense for adding a lefty reliever, as they currently only have Brandon Hughes on the 40, who could be in line for a closer’s role as opposed to a situational lefty job.

The Yankees recently let Lucas Luetge go, designating him for assignment and flipping him to Atlanta. That has left Wandy Peralta as the club’s only option from the left side in their bullpen. Adding even a modest contract to their books might be an issue, however, as they are reportedly concerned about crossing the final tier of the competitive balance tax. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT figure at $292.3MM, just a hair under the final line of $293MM. Making any external addition without making up that difference will be a challenge. Trading the contract of someone like Josh Donaldson or Aaron Hicks would give them some more breathing room but the Yanks haven’t been able to find a deal so far.

The interest of the Mets might be complicated as well, as Rosenthal reports that they are hesitant to add another out-of-options pitcher to the mix and reduce their roster flexibility. All players with more than five years of service time cannot be optioned without their consent, meaning that all of these veterans are in that category. None of Edwin Díaz, Adam Ottavino, David Robertson or Brooks Raley can be optioned to the minors either.

For clubs that miss out on Chafin, Britton and Moore, some of the other lefties still available include Will Smith, Brad Hand and Justin Wilson.

Mets Among Teams Interested In Andrew Chafin

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The market for lefty reliever Andrew Chafin is “heating up,” per Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link), and the Mets are among the teams with interest. SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that as many as seven other clubs have been talking with Chafin, however. Mets GM Billy Eppler said yesterday that he still hoped to add another outfielder and a reliever, and he’s checked one of those two items off his list before lunch today by agreeing to a one-year deal with Tommy Pham.

Chafin, 32, is quite arguably the best reliever remaining on the free-agent market and entered the offseason as one of the top overall lefties available. He declined a $6.5MM player option with the Tigers at the end of the 2022 season and ought to be able to clear that guarantee by a fair measure — likely on a multi-year deal. That’s to be expected after the southpaw turned in a 2.83 ERA inn 57 1/3 innings last season while drawing similar reviews from fielding-independent marks like FIP (3.06), xERA (2.92) and SIERA (2.97).

While Chafin doesn’t throw especially hard, averaging just 91.8 mph on his heater in 2022, the veteran southpaw does offer one of the best blends of missed bats, solid command and ground-ball tendencies of any reliever in the game. Chafin fanned 27.6% of his opponents in 2022, combining that with a quality 7.8% walk rate and a 51.3% ground-ball rate. Chafin was one of just nine qualified relievers in all of baseball who topped a 25% strikeout rate and 50% ground-ball rate while also sporting a walk rate lower than 8%. He also limited hard contact quite well, yielding an 87.5 mph average exit velocity that ranked in the 73rd percentile of pitchers and a 33.8% hard-hit rate that sat in the 81st percentile, per Statcast.

Chafin isn’t necessarily elite in any one single way, but he’s well above-average in a variety of important areas. Coupled with his age and handedness, that ought to lead to widespread appeal on the free-agent market. The bullpen market as a whole got out to a quick start, but the market for lefties has been slower to develop — evidenced by the fact that Chafin, Matt Moore, Will Smith, Brad Hand and Zack Britton are among the still-available names.

The Mets indeed represent a nice fit for Chafin, though a veteran of this stature is an upgrade to virtually any bullpen in the sport. New York currently projects to have Brooks Raley and perhaps one of David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi or Tayler Saucedo in the ’pen as lefty options for manager Buck Showalter. Adding Chafin could allow the Mets to either carry three southpaws or to begin the year with both Peterson and Lucchesi in the Triple-A rotation, keeping both stretched out as viable starting depth in the event of injuries at the MLB level.

Again, though, there simply aren’t many teams that Chafin wouldn’t improve, so finding suitors for him is likely more a matter of determining how many motivated spenders remain on the market. The Mets certainly fall into that bucket and wouldn’t bat an eye at the 90% luxury tax they’ll have to pay on top of Chafin’s salary, but there are certainly other contenders and hopeful contenders with some money to spend who could give the Mets some competition in the bidding.

Cubs Interested In Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore

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The Cubs continue to look for relief help, and The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma reports that left-handers Andrew Chafin and Matt Moore are both on the team’s radar.  It isn’t clear whether the Cubs are necessarily willing to meet either pitcher’s asking price, as president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer had previously indicated that his team preferred one-year deals for relievers, and the Cubs have traditionally found success in adding relief pitching at lower-cost deals.

As Hoyer told Sharma and other reporters at today’s Cubs Convention fan event, this past strategy is now “a lot more difficult” in the current free agent market.  “If you look at the cost on some of the players we were able to do that on, it was really low stakes as far as what we were paying those guys.  I do think the buy-low reliever market has been a lot higher than the past.  It’s made that job difficult.”

Of course, neither Chafin or Moore are buy-low players any longer, adding another wrinkle to Chicago’s interest.  Chafin was in fact a bounce-back type when he signed a one-year, $2.75MM deal with the Cubs in the 2020-21 offseason, as the southpaw had struggled with the Diamondbacks in 2020 before the Cubs initially picked him up at the trade deadline.

That rough (and brief, at only 6 2/3 innings) stint with the D’Backs represented Chafin’s only real down point of the last six seasons, as the lefty has been an otherwise solid and occasionally dominant relief arm.  Last year with the Tigers, Chafin posted a 2.83 ERA and an above-average 27.6% strikeout rate, and 51.3% grounder rate over 57 1/3 innings, giving him a solid platform to re-enter the free agent market.  Chafin declined his $6.5MM player option for 2023, opting to leave Detroit in search of a more lucrative multi-year offer.  Chafin certainly has familiarity with Wrigley Field, and could theoretically have interest in a reunion — especially with the Cubs now looking to contend after a short rebuilding period.

MLBTR listed Chafin 39th on our ranking of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, projecting the veteran southpaw for a two-year, $18MM deal.  Moore was an honorable mention on the list, as while he only has one season of full-time relief work under his belt, Moore looked quite sharp in his first year as a bullpen regular.  The left-hander posted a 1.95 ERA over 74 innings with the Rangers, even if a 3.69 SIERA and a .257 BABIP indicated Moore enjoyed some good fortune.

Still, secondary metrics tended to back up Moore’s revival.  He had a strong 27.3% strikeout rate and did an outstanding job of limiting hard contact, as both his hard-hit ball and barrel rates ranked above the 91st percentile of all pitchers.  However, control was still a major issue for Moore, as his 12.5% walk rate sat near the bottom of the league.

Signing either Chafin or Moore would add some left-handed balance to a Chicago bullpen that is mostly full of right-handers, as Brandon Hughes looks to be the only southpaw assured of a spot on the Opening Day roster.  The Cubs did bolster their left-handed depth by signing Roenis Elias, Ryan Borucki, and Eric Stout to minor league deals, while Anthony Kay was claimed off waivers from the Blue Jays last month.

Hoyer said that “bench and bullpen” are remaining target areas for the Cubs, with Sharma noting that the team could be looking for a player who can serve as a DH and possibly play some first base.  Rather than free agency, the Cubs could potentially look to address their needs in a trade, and perhaps to this end, Sharma writes that the versatile Zach McKinstry “has also been a popular name when other teams call the Cubs regarding trade possibilities.”  Sharma opines that Chicago could possibly trade McKinstry and replace him from within with Miles Mastrobuoni, a similar player who (unlike McKinstry) has minor league options remaining.

The Best Remaining Free Agent At Each Position

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The lingering Carlos Correa saga hangs over the free agency market, but beyond him the bulk of the free agents have found new homes for the 2023 season and beyond. While we won’t be seeing any monster deals from here, there are still a handful of players that could still have a positive impact on a new team. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the best (in this writer’s view anyway) remaining free agents at each position.

For a full list of the remaining free agents, go here.

Starting Pitcher: Johnny Cueto: 158 1/3 innings pitched, 3.35 ERA, 5.8 SO/9, 1.9 BB/9. Cueto enjoyed something of a resurgence last year for the White Sox, putting together his best campaign since 2016. His strikeout rate declined considerably but he offset that by displaying some of the best control of his career. He’ll turn 37 in February, so likely will only command a one-year deal but teams in need of a veteran arm to stabilize the backend of the rotation could certainly do worse than adding Cueto. The Padres, Marlins, Blue Jays and Reds have all had reported interest in the veteran right-hander at various stages of the off-season, while teams like the Angels have shown recent interest in adding another starter.

Relief Pitcher: Andrew Chafin: 57 1/3 IP, 2.83 ERA, 10.5 SO/9, 3.0 BB/9. Chafin’s been a quality left-handed reliever for the past few seasons now, the last of which came with the Tigers. He’s effective against both left and right-handed hitters, and should fit in as a late-inning arm wherever he winds up landing. Control was an issue earlier in his career, but he seems to have tidied that up and posted a mark below 8% for the second-straight season. That figure came with a quality 27.6% strikeout rate. After declining a $6.5MM option on his contract with the Tigers, he should be able to top that on the open market on a multi-year deal.

Catcher: Gary Sanchez: 471 plate appearances, .205/.282/.377, 16 home runs. The Yankees flipped Sanchez to Twins last winter after growing frustrated with his performance over the previous few seasons. Sanchez undoubtedly has talent, as evidenced by the 53 home runs and 143 wRC+ he compiled between 2016-17. He’s not come close to replicating that in the years since, slashing .202/.295/.427 for a below-average wRC+ of 96 between 2018-22. Sanchez has never been regarded as one of the top defensive catchers, but did post his best framing numbers per Fangraphs’ metric since 2018, and gave up the fewest wild pitches of his career (excluding the shortened 2020 season and 2016, when he didn’t play a full year). While a number of teams have filled their vacancy at catcher, the likes of the Red Sox, Tigers and Marlins could be among the teams interested.

First base: Trey Mancini: 587 PA, .239/.319/.391, 18 HR. Mancini split time between the Orioles and Astros in 2022, putting together a solid enough campaign at the plate. His 104 wRC+ in the past two seasons indicates he’s just four percent above the league average at the plate. For a first base/corner outfielder that’s unlikely to command a significant guarantee in free agency, but Mancini could still land a multi-year guarantee. There’s certainly an argument to be made that Mancini belongs in that outfield group of such an article, but any acquiring team would surely have him splitting time between first base and the outfield. Mancini was worth 2 Outs Above Average in 323 innings at first in 2022, the best mark of any of the positions he played.

Second base: Josh Harrison: 425 PA, .256/.317/.370, 7 HR. The 35-year-old Harrison recovered from a slow start to finish with a respectable season for the White Sox, finishing with a slightly below average 98 wRC+. That came after he was hitting just .167/.248/.255 on June 2. He doesn’t offer much in the way of power, but he provides a solid contact bat who can play all over the infield. Harrison logged most of his defensive time at second base, where he was worth 3 Defensive Runs Saved. He was also worth 3 DRS at third base, and can fill in at short and the corner outfield spots at a pinch. Teams in need of a veteran utility player could do worse than adding Harrison on a one-year deal.

Shortstop: Elvis Andrus: 577 PA, .249/.303/.404, 17 HR. Andrus started the year in Oakland, but was released in August and finished the season with the White Sox. The 34-year-old has a bit of pop in his bat, and grades out well defensively at shortstop, where he was worth 3 Outs Above Average in 2022. He may very well be the best infielder left on the open market, yet it’s been a quiet winter for Andrus, with little reported movement in his market. Obviously Correa has not officially signed a contract, but for the purposes of this article we’ll assume he’s heading to the Mets in which case Andrus would be the next best option for teams on the hunt for a shortstop.

Third base: Brian Anderson: 383 PA, .222/.311/.346, 8 HR. Anderson put up the worst offensive numbers of his five full seasons with the Marlins in 2022, finishing up with a 90 wRC+. That was the second-straight season of offensive decline for the 29-year-old, who put up a 115 wRC+ between 2018-20. He’s split time between third base and right field in recent times, grading out well in both until 2022. Last year, he was worth -4 DRS after picking up 12 DRS over the previous three seasons at the hot corner. The decline was enough for the Marlins to non-tender him this winter ahead of his final year of arbitration, but he could make sense as a buy-low bounceback candidate for any number of teams.

Left/Right field: Jurickson Profar: 658 PA, .243/.331/.391, 15 HR. Profar is arguably the top remaining free agent available. The 29-year-old (30 in February) puts the ball in play plenty, as evidenced by his quality 15.7% strikeout rate. He also takes plenty of walks and has a bit of pop in the bat. A former middle infielder, the Padres played him exclusively in left last year and he picked up 2 Defensive Runs Saved. He turned down an $7.5MM in favor of a $1MM buyout this winter to hit the open market in search of a multi-year deal. The Rangers and Yankees make sense as teams looking for left field help, while the Marlins and Rockies could also make sense.

Center field: Albert Almora: 235 PA, .223/.282/.349, 5 HR. The center field market was not deep to begin with, and is now largely limited to glove first options. Almora doesn’t pose much of a threat with the bat, as evidenced by his 71 wRC+, but he was worth 8 Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield for the Reds, with four of those coming in center field. He’s unlikely to be a starting option for teams but would make sense as a glove-first bench option.

Designated Hitter: Nelson Cruz: 507 PA, .234/.313/.337, 10 HR. After a number of years of elite production at the plate, 2022 was the first below average year for Cruz since 2007 (per wRC+). He’s now 42, so betting on him bouncing back is a risky one, but he mashed 89 home runs and compiled a 146 wRC+ between 2019-21 so it’s not like this has been a steady decline over a number of years. With that being said, he hasn’t played the field at all since 2018 so is exclusively limited to DH duties. It was reported a few days ago that he has received offers for the 2023 season though, so it seems he will be back for a 19th big league season.

Which Remaining Free Agent Relievers Are Coming Off The Best Seasons?

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The offseason floodgates opened this month, with an avalanche of free agent activity once the Winter Meetings got underway. Things have quieted down in recent days thanks to the holidays, but clubs are likely to again get back to attacking the free agent market in earnest this week.

Most of the winter’s top names are off the board, leaving teams to mostly look through lower-cost options as they search for upgrades on the margins of the roster. There are still a number of experienced options available, particularly for teams seeking to round out the bullpen. Using MLBTR’s free agent list, we find 47 pitchers who tossed at least 20 innings out of a team’s bullpen in 2022 and remain unsigned.

We’ll sort the remaining free agent relievers by various metrics of 2022 performance to identify some of the top arms. There are obviously other factors for teams to consider — quality of raw stuff, pre-2022 track record, the player’s injury history, etc. — but a brief snapshot on the top bullpen arms by last year’s performance should provide a decent starting point for players teams might target moving forward. (All figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as relievers).

ERA (league average — 3.86)

  1. Matt Moore (LHP), 1.95
  2. Alex Young (LHP), 2.08
  3. Matt Wisler (RHP), 2.23
  4. Wily Peralta (RHP), 2.72
  5. Brad Hand (LHP), 2.80
  6. Andrew Chafin (LHP), 2.83
  7. David Phelps (RHP), 2.87
  8. Ralph Garza Jr. (RHP), 3.34
  9. Jackson Stephens (RHP), 3.38
  10. Michael Fulmer (RHP), 3.39

Strikeout rate (league average — 23.6%)

  1. Daniel Norris (LHP), 30%
  2. Darren O’Day (RHP), 27.7%
  3. Andrew Chafin, 27.6%
  4. Matt Moore, 27.3%
  5. Aroldis Chapman (LHP), 26.9%
  6. Steve Cishek (RHP), 25.8%
  7. Chasen Shreve (LHP), 25.4%
  8. Will Smith (LHP), 24.9%
  9. David Phelps, 23.9%
  10. Noé Ramirez, 23.7%

Strikeout/walk rate differential (league average — 14.5 percentage points)

  1. Andrew Chafin, 19.8 points
  2. Daniel Norris, 19 points
  3. Darren O’Day, 17 points
  4. Chasen Shreve, 16.7 points
  5. Steve Cishek, 16.4 points
  6. Craig Stammen (RHP), 15.7 points
  7. Will Smith, 15.3 points
  8. Matt Moore, 14.8 points
  9. Ross Detwiler (LHP), 14.8 points
  10. Luke Weaver (RHP), 13.8 points

Ground-ball rate (league average — 43.5%)

  1. Luis Perdomo (RHP), 62.5%
  2. Joe Smith (RHP), 57.5%
  3. Alex Young, 55.7%
  4. Alex Colomé (RHP), 55.6%
  5. T.J. McFarland (LHP), 53%
  6. Craig Stammen, 52.6%
  7. Garrett Richards (RHP), 52.4%
  8. Bryan Shaw (RHP), 51.8%
  9. Andrew Chafin, 51.3%
  10. Jacob Barnes (RHP), 50.7%

FIP (league average — 3.86)

  1. Luke Weaver, 2.46
  2. Alex Young, 2.65
  3. Matt Moore, 2.98
  4. Andrew Chafin, 3.06
  5. David Phelps, 3.11
  6. Garrett Richards, 3.16
  7. Jackson Stephens, 3.45
  8. Michael Fulmer, 3.57
  9. Brad Hand, 3.93
  10. Darren O’Day, 4.04

Innings Pitched

  1. Matt Moore, 74
  2. Caleb Smith (LHP), 69
  3. Steve Cishek, 66 1/3
  4. Michael Fulmer, 63 2/3
  5. David Phelps, 62 2/3
  6. Hunter Strickland (RHP), 62 1/3
  7. Will Smith, 59
  8. Andrew Chafin, 57 1/3
  9. Bryan Shaw, 54
  10. Jackson Stephens/Hirokazu Sawamura (RHP), 50 2/3 each
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