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Cubs Reportedly “Determined” To Trade Seiya Suzuki Or Cody Bellinger

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The Cubs are “determined” to trade one of first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger or outfielder Seiya Suzuki, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post, with the idea of then redirecting their cost savings to upgrade other parts of the roster. Per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, the Cubs have some interest in catchers Carson Kelly and Danny Jansen as well as relievers Andrew Chafin and Kirby Yates.

The Cubs have been seen as a logical candidate to move an outfielder due to having a fairly crowded mix on the grass. Pete Crow-Armstrong seemingly established himself as a viable glove-first center fielder this year, with the potential for huge value if his offense takes a step forward. For the corner spots, the Cubs have Bellinger, Suzuki and Ian Happ. Bellinger can also play some first base but Michael Busch took that position and ran with it this year.

There are also some other options lurking just below those established big leaguers. Alexander Canario has just 45 major league plate appearances but he has always hit well in Triple-A and is now out of options. Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie are both on the 40-man roster and consensus top 100 prospects in the league. Alcántara made a brief MLB debut in 2024 while Caissie spent the whole season in Triple-A and played well, so both are arguably ready for some proper big league playing time. Even with the designated hitter spot open, that’s more guys than the Cubs have spots.

But untangling the knot comes with complications. The prospects and Crow-Armstrong are cheap and controllable, so the the Cubs probably view them as part of the long-term solution, especially since the Happ/Bellinger/Suzuki trio are all slated for free agency after 2026, with Bellinger able to opt out of his deal after 2025. But Happ and Suzuki have no-trade clauses, making it difficult to move them.

Bellinger is also difficult to trade on account of that opt-out. For the Cubs or an acquiring club, the best case scenario is that he plays well in 2025 and leaves, but even that wouldn’t be cheap. He’s going to make $27.5MM in 2025 and then gets to choose between a $5MM buyout and $25MM salary in 2026. That means that even a one-and-done from Bellinger in 2025 will cost $32.5MM. Teams may have some willingness to take a chance on Bellinger bouncing back from a middling 2024 campaign, but the downside is that he doesn’t quite get back into form and sticks around for 2026. In that scenario, the acquiring team would be on the hook for $52.5MM over two years for a struggling player.

At this point, it’s anyone’s guess which version of Bellinger is going to show up next year, given his up-and-down career. He won an MVP award earlier in his career but then suffered through a few miserable seasons, perhaps struggling to get healthy after a notable shoulder surgery. He bounced back with the Cubs in 2023, hitting 26 home runs, slashing .307/.356/.525 and stealing 20 bases. FanGraphs credited him with 4.4 wins above replacement in 130 games. He played the same number of games in 2024 but with his fWAR cut in half to 2.2. His home run tally dropped to 18, he stole nine bases and he played less time in center field as Crow-Armstrong took over that spot.

Lining up with another club on a trade could be difficult, but it’s still a possibility. At the start of the offseason, we put Bellinger on our list of likely trade candidates, though with a spot near the bottom as a reflection of the complications. It was reported this week that the Yankees, Mariners and Astros have checked in about him.

With Suzuki, this is the first suggestion that he is available, and he will surely draw interest. In his 381 major league games thus far, he has hit 55 home runs and drawn walks at a 10.2% clip. His .278/.354/.470 batting line translates to a 129 wRC+ and he has seemingly been getting better over time. His home run total has gone from 14 to 20 and then 21 in his three seasons, with his walk rate climbing year-over-year from 9.4% to 10.1% and then 10.8%. As such, his wRC+ has gone from 118 in his rookie season to 128 and then 138.

Suzuki isn’t considered a strong defender, with the advanced metrics mixed on exactly where to rank him. He has -5 Outs Above Average to this point but Defensive Runs Saved has him at league average overall, and with apparent improvements. He had -4 DRS in his rookie season and then +2 in each of the subsequent campaigns to get back to par overall.

Regardless, the bat should make him appealing and his contract isn’t onerous. He is going to make $18MM in each of the next two years, his age-30 and -31 campaigns, for a total guarantee of $36MM. Comparable free agents are likely to earn far more than that on the open market. MLBTR predicted that Anthony Santander could secure a contract of $80MM over four years, with guys like Teoscar Hernández, Jurickson Profar and Tyler O’Neill projected for the $40-60MM range.

As mentioned, Suzuki has a full no-trade clause. That naturally complicates the possibility of a trade, as the Cubs would be limited in their discussions to whatever clubs Suzuki would be willing to join and it’s unknown what his preferences are or might be. The Cubs will presumably have discussions with Suzuki and various suitors to see what possibilities exist for them. If a deal can come together, it would open up some playing time for their prospects while freeing up some cash for other pursuits.

It doesn’t appear the budget is especially tight right now. RosterResource has the Cubs projected for a $185MM payroll, well below last year’s Opening Day mark of $214MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Perhaps the Cubs are planning to keep spending a bit tight this offseason, as many predicted them to pursue a notable rotation upgrade such as Corbin Burnes or Max Fried. But they recently agreed to a two-year, $29MM deal with Matthew Boyd, a notable expense but far less than what Burnes or Fried are expected to earn.

The club is known to be looking for help behind the plate and Kelly and Jansen are two of the better names available in free agency. Kelly has generally paired some solid defense with passable offense in his career. Though his bat has gone up and down a bit, he has a .224/.307/.373 batting line in his career for a wRC+ of 85. Jansen, on the other hand, had a long stretch as a great hitter but is coming into free agency on a down note. He hit .237/.317/.487 for a wRC+ of 121 from 2021 to 2023 and got out to a roaring start in 2024 as well but then slashed .158/.274/.243 for a wRC+ of 53 after the month of May.

MLBTR predicted a two-year, $20MM guarantee for Jansen as part of our Top 50 free agents list, with Kelly in the honorable mention section. Either should easily fit into Chicago’s budget with or without an outfield trade.

Chafin and Yates both align with the Cubs and their aversion to notable deals for relievers, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Since Jed Hoyer took over as president of baseball operations, the club has never given a multi-year deal to a free agent reliever. Last year’s $9MM one-year deal for Héctor Neris was the first time Hoyer went beyond $5MM for a bullpen signing.

Yates just wrapped up a tremendous season, tossing 61 2/3 innings with a 1.17 earned run average and 35.9% strikeout rate. But since he’s turning 38 years old in March and has a notable injury history, he will likely be limited to a one-year deal. MLBTR’s $14MM projection would be new territory for Hoyer, though only slightly. Chafin has been a solid bullpen lefty for over a decade, with a 3.42 ERA in 601 appearances. His last two trips to free agency have resulted in one-year deals of $6.3MM and then $4.8MM.

Rangers Decline Andrew Chafin’s Club Option

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The Rangers announced that they declined their $6.5MM club option on left-hander Andrew Chafin for the 2025 season. Chafin will receive a $500K buyout and enter free agency.

It’ll be the fourth straight offseason on the market for the 34-year-old Chafin, who has signed with the Tigers, D-backs and Tigers over the past three seasons. The first of those was a two-year pact with an opt-out, which he took the following winter. He’s earned salaries of $6.5MM, $6.25MM and $4.75MM along the way in those three respective seasons and will now likely land another short-term pact in free agency.

The 2024 season was a solid one for Chafin, who split the year between Detroit and Texas. He pitched a combined 56 1/3 innings with a 3.51 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate, 12.6% walk rate and 36% grounder rate. Chafin has lost some life on his fastball in recent seasons and seen his once-strong command dip, but he remains a generally effective reliever against hitters from both sides of the dish. Lefties did post an uncharacteristically strong split against him in 2024 (.273/.363/.375), but that was due largely to an inflated .400 average on balls in play that should come back down to earth.

Over the past four seasons, Chafin has worked to a combined 3.12 ERA, though the manner in which he’s gotten to his generally solid results has changed. He’s adopted a more slider-heavy approach in recent seasons, doing so at the expense of his four-seamer and sinker. That’s led to more missed bats but also more walks and fewer grounders. Each of his pitches has graded out better than average at least once in those four seasons, but his slider has been a consistently plus pitch so it’s no surprise to see him gravitate toward it more strongly — particularly as his four-seam and two-seam fastballs lose a bit of life.

Although the Rangers passed on guaranteeing Chafin $6.5MM from the jump, they’re still likely to be heavily involved in the bullpen market this winter. Chafin is one of four relievers departing, joining David Robertson, Kirby Yates and Jose Leclerc. That quartet accounted for much of the leverage work among Texas relievers. Declining Chafin’s option isn’t so much a sign that they’re not interested in keeping him or adding other bullpen arms; rather, it’s likely that Texas wants to make sure it has as much powder dry for top offseason pursuits, likely headlined by fellow free agent Nathan Eovaldi, whom president of baseball ops Chris Young has already called a “priority” in free agency.

What Would It Take For The Rangers To Duck Under The Luxury Tax Line?

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The 2023 Angels entered the trade deadline as something of a long-shot contender but nevertheless embarked on an aggressive win-now push. In an effort both to break their postseason drought and perhaps to show impending free agent Shohei Ohtani a commitment to winning, the Halos went out and acquired Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. It was a valiant, if not desperate effort, and it fell short almost immediately. By mid-August, the Angels were buried in the standings with virtually no hope of climbing back into contention. With the former August trade waiver system no longer in place, GM Perry Minasian and his staff waved the white flag in a new and more drastic way: they put more than one quarter of the roster on outright waivers.

By placing Giolito, Lopez, Cron, Grichuk, Leone, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe and Tyler Anderson on waivers, the Angels positioned themselves to A) save an enormous amount of money, B) potentially dip back under the luxury tax threshold (they succeeded), and C) impact several postseason races ... just not in the way they originally envisioned. For those who don't recall, the Guardians claimed Giolito, Lopez and Moore. Renfroe was claimed by the Reds. Leone went to the Mariners. Grichuk and Anderson were not claimed.

Last week, MLBTR's Darragh McDonald previewed a handful of veterans who could hit waivers in just this fashion later this month. Since Darragh wrote that piece, one team has emerged as an even likelier candidate to go down this road; as the Astros have gone on an eight-game winning streak and the Mariners have kept in arm's reach, the Rangers have fallen to a daunting 10 games back in the AL West and 10.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. FanGraphs gives the Rangers a 0.6% chance of reaching the postseason. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA is more bullish ... at 2.4%. Texas isn't mathematically eliminated, but they're not far off.

As Darragh noted last week and as both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Becker of FanGraphs have explored this week, there's an argument that the Rangers should jettison some of their impending free agents and cut back costs. In his column, Becker looked at how much money the Rangers would save by placing their impending free agents on waivers two days before the Aug. 31 postseason eligibility deadline. Rosenthal noted within his column that there's no clear path to dipping under the luxury tax for the Rangers, "so their only motivation would be to save on salary."

Technically that's true, but it's also not impossible for the Rangers to duck under the threshold without placing their entire roster on waivers for the taking. While sneaking under the tax threshold is a tall order, it could potentially be done without completely decimating next season's roster. Let's take a look at how they could get there and at what type of benefits they'd receive for doing so.

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Rangers Acquire Andrew Chafin

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The Rangers announced they’ve acquired lefty reliever Andrew Chafin from the Tigers. Pitching prospects Joseph Montalvo and Chase Lee are going to Detroit. Texas designated righty Jonathan Hernandez for assignment in a corresponding move.

The 34-year-old Chafin is in the midst of yet another solid season. He’s pitched 37 innings of 3.16 ERA ball with a big 30.9% strikeout rate, a 9.9% walk rate and a 35.8% grounder rate. He’s been particularly dominant of late, rattling off 17 innings of one-run ball with a 26-to-5 K/BB ratio dating back to early June.

That 35.8% grounder rate is an uncharacteristically low mark for Chafin, who’s changed up his pitch usage this year. He’s throwing more sliders than ever before (46.4%) and missing more bats as a result but also yielding more balls in the air and a few more walks than in recent years. Chafin’s velocity is down a bit from its 93-94 mph peak, however, sitting around 92 mph on average this year with both his four-seamer and sinker. It’s possible the change in repertoire was borne out of the diminishing life on those harder offerings. Regardless, it’s been an effective recipe for the well-traveled southpaw, who’ll now suit up for the sixth team of his 11-year career.

Chafin is playing on a one-year, $4.75MM contract, although the Rangers are picking up another year of possible control over him in the form of a 2025 club option valued at $6.5MM (a net $6MM decision after factoring in a $500K buyout). He’s owed about $1.42MM of his $4.25MM base salary but has a handful of incentives approaching that could boost the value of that contract. Chafin would earn a $125K bonus for pitching in his 50th game — he’s at 41 appearances — before taking home $250K bonuses for reaching 55 and 60 games, a $300K bonus for 65 games and a $325K bonus for reaching 70 appearances. The last of those milestones could be hard to reach, but the Rangers will be on the hook for some additional incentives of note, which will all come with a 30% tax given their luxury-tax status.

With Chafin’s acquisition and Cody Bradford’s return from a 60-day IL stint, a Rangers bullpen that has lacked an established left-handed option for much of the season will suddenly have two quality options in that regard. Chafin will join a late-inning mix including Kirby Yates, David Robertson and Jose Leclerc. He’s held lefties to an awful .180/.261/.213 batting line this season, and while righties are enjoying more success at .293/.366/.390, they’re not managing much power against the southpaw. In his career, Chafin has yielded only a .234/.313/.361 line to right-handed opponents, though much of that came with a more vibrant fastball and different mix of his three pitches.

The trade for Chafin underscores the fact that yesterday’s trade of Michael Lorenzen to the Royals was less about selling off in the midst of a disappointing season and rather opening space for the return of several other veteran starters (e.g. Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle, Dane Dunning and, further down the road, Jacob deGrom). Much of the cost-savings from that trade of Lorenzen — earning $4.5MM with incentives of his own — will now be reallocated to the comparably priced Chafin.

Montalvo is the more highly regarded of the prospects headed to Detroit. Baseball America ranked him 19th on their most recent update of the Texas system, crediting him with a plus changeup and the ability to spin his low-90s fastball. He’s dominating lower minors opponents, striking out nearly 30% of batters faced with a 2.44 ERA in High-A. Lee is an upper minors reliever who’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft next offseason if he’s not added to the 40-man roster. He lost the first couple months of this season to injury but had a 3.98 ERA in Triple-A last year.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Rangers were finalizing a deal for Chafin. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal confirmed an agreement was in place. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported the Tigers would receive Montalvo and Lee.

Latest On Tigers’ Trade Candidates

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“The Tigers are listening to everything” in regards to trade possibilities, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press writes, as the team is at least open to moving both pending free agents and players under longer-term control.  It remains unclear exactly how aggressive the Tigers might be in moving anyone who isn’t controlled beyond 2025, as while it costs the team nothing to test the market for offers, Detroit does broadly expect to finally get back to contention next season.

With a 52-54 record, the Tigers are still technically in contention this season, as they sit only 5.5 games back of the final AL wild card berth.  A stirring 14-8 record in July has kept Detroit alive in the playoff picture, yet with the postseason still something of a longshot, this recent surge hasn’t been enough to detract from the Tigers’ plan to move some veterans.

Jack Flaherty and Mark Canha have been mentioned in trade rumors already, but Petzold notes that the Tigers are “shopping” catcher Carson Kelly.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed in a piece earlier this month, Kelly has rebounded after a couple of down years to assume close to an even split of Detroit’s catching duties alongside Jake Rogers. Kelly has is hitting .242/.327/.393 with seven home runs over 202 plate appearances, translating to an above-average 106 wRC+.

Despite the importance of the catching position, it is relatively rare to see prominent backstops dealt at the deadline, due in part to all of the added prep work that a catcher must handle behind the scenes.  Since so much of the job is based around handling pitchers and calling games, it can quite difficult for a catcher to join a new team and immediately be tasked with learning the tendencies for an entire new set of hurlers.

This alone complicates Detroit’s efforts to move Kelly, not to mention the fact that a lot of other contenders are relatively set at the catching position.  That said, you never know what teams might emerge with needs — the Red Sox weren’t seemingly in search of catching on paper, yet Boston acquired Danny Jansen from the Blue Jays yesterday.  Kelly is also pretty inexpensive, as has about $1.22MM remaining on his $3.5MM salary for the 2024 season.

In terms of players with extra control, Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller can each be retained via club options for the 2025 season.  (Chafin’s option is worth $6.5MM with a $500K buyout, while Miller’s option is for $4.25MM with a $250K buyout.)  According to Petzold, the Tigers are leaning towards picking up both options for now, though their plans could change if another team makes a good enough offer for either pitcher by Tuesday’s deadline.

Chafin has more value as a left-handed reliever, plus his numbers are better than Miller’s this season.  Chafin has a 3.25 ERA with an outstanding 29.9% strikeout rate over 36 innings, and while he is still prone to issuing free passes, the veteran’s 9.6% walk rate is still markedly improved over his 12.5% figure from 2023.  Miller is something of the opposite, as he has a strong 5.4% walk rate but his other numbers are a lot rougher — a 4.66 ERA in 36 2/3 frames out of the Tigers’ bullpen.

Sticking with the relief corps, Petzold reports that the Tigers have gotten trade interest in both Jason Foley and Will Vest, but the club is unlikely to move either right-hander.  Foley and Vest are both controlled through 2027 and won’t even reach their first rounds of salary arbitration until this coming offseason, so barring a very compelling offer, Detroit has no reason to consider moving relievers who aim to be part of the bullpen plans for years to come.

Foley in particular has performed well as Detroit’s closer this season, saving 15 of 18 chances and posting a 3.22 ERA in 36 1/3 innings.  If there is a reason for the Tigers to think about selling high, it could be that Foley doesn’t fit the traditional model for a lights-out stopper.  Foley is a grounder specialist with surprisingly low strikeout totals for a pitcher with a 96.9mph fastball, though his slider has been much more effective than his heater this season.

Vest has quietly posted strong numbers for two seasons in a row now, following up his 2.98 ERA in 48 1/3 innings in 2023 with a 3.15 ERA in 45 2/3 frames this year.  Somewhat akin to Foley, Vest also doesn’t miss many bats, but he is very good at limiting hard contact.  Only six percent of Vest’s fly balls have left the yard over the last two seasons, and his 2.9% barrel rate is in the 97th percentile of all pitchers in 2024.

Tigers Sign Andrew Chafin

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December 12: The Tigers have now made it official, announcing their deal with Chafin and the details on the $1.25MM in annual incentives. In both 2024 and 2025, Chafin can get $125K for 50 games pitched, $250K each for 55 and 60 games pitched, $300K for 65 games pitched and $325K for 70 games pitched.

December 10: The Tigers are reportedly in agreement with left-hander Andrew Chafin on a one-year deal that includes a club option for the 2025 season, according to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Petzold goes on to note that the contract comes with a $4.25MM base salary in 2024 that could reach $5.5MM with incentives. The club option, worth $6.5MM, could reach $7.75MM with incentives and comes with a $500K buyout, raising the contract’s total guarantee to $4.75MM.

It’s a reunion for the veteran lefty, who pitched in 64 games with the Tigers in 2022. Chafin, 34 in June, was a first-round pick by the Diamondbacks in the 2011 draft and made his big league debut not long after in 2014. He’d go on to play in Arizona for six-and-a-half seasons as a solid left-handed middle relief option, pitching to a 3.74 ERA in 306 innings of work with the Diamondbacks before being shipped to the Cubs at the trade deadline in 2020. During his time in Arizona, Chafin struck out 25.8% of batters faced while routinely posting groundball rates north of 50%. The lefty’s 2020 season was limited by injury woes to just 9 2/3 innings, but that didn’t stop Chicago from retaining him on the roster headed into the 2021 season.

2021 proved to be a breakout season for Chafin, who dominated in 43 appearances with the Cubs as one of the club’s primary set-up men to Craig Kimbrel alongside Ryan Tepera. Early in the 2021 season, Chafin combined with Tepera, Kimbrel and starting pitcher Zach Davies to no-hit the Dodgers for the first combined no-no in Cubs history. While Chafin helped to make history in Chicago, it wound up being little more than a footnote in his dominant 2021 campaign. The southpaw’s 24.7% strikeout rate and 50% groundball rate with the Cubs that year produced an impressive 2.06 ERA and 2.69 FIP. Upon a midseason trade to Oakland, Chafin unlocked another gear, posting a microscopic 1.53 ERA in 29 1/3 innings down the stretch to bring his overall season ERA down to just 1.83 over 68 2/3 innings of work. That performance was good for a whopping 229 ERA+.

Chafin’s strong 2021 campaign earned him a two-year guarantee in Detroit that included an opt-out after the first year of the deal. Though not as dominant as his 2021 campaign, Chafin put up strong numbers for the Tigers in 2022 with a 2.83 ERA and 3.06 FIP across 57 1/3 innings of work. His strikeout rate ticked up to 27.6% while he induced grounders 51.3% of the time. The solid performance backed up by excellent peripherals persuaded Chafin to opt-out of the final year and $6.5MM of his contract in Detroit last offseason. That decision ultimately did not go well, as Chafin signed with his original team in Arizona for just $6.25MM guaranteed last year after lingering on the free agent market until mid-February.

The veteran lefty went on to struggle in 2023, posting a 4.73 ERA and 4.01 FIP across 51 1/3 innings of work split between the Diamondbacks and Brewers last year. Chafin’s 28.1% strikeout rate was as good as ever, but he generated a groundball rate of just 38.5% while walking a career-high 12.5% of batters faced. Despite Chafin’s struggles in his age-33 season last year, the signing could prove wise for a Tigers club that was known to be interested in adding a lefty reliever to its bullpen should he find a way to either cut down on the walks or rediscover the proclivity for grounders he demonstrated in recent years.

Brewers Decline Options On Andrew Chafin, Justin Wilson

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The Brewers have declined their options on left-handed relievers Andrew Chafin and Justin Wilson, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.

Chafin, a 33-year-old lefty reliever, lingered on the free agent market last winter until mid-February.  He signed a one-year, $6.25MM deal to return to the Diamondbacks, the team that made him a first-round pick out of Kent State nearly 12 years prior.  Chafin took a share of Arizona’s closing duties this year, logging eight saves but with some rough outings along the way.  He was able to punch out nearly a third of batters faced with Arizona, but also walked 12% of them.  Having added Paul Sewald from the Mariners, the D’Backs shipped Chafin to Milwaukee for righty Peter Strzelecki.

Chafin struggled mightily with the Brewers, unable to curb the walks or maintain a healthy strikeout rate.  In a stretch in late August, Chafin was battered for nine earned runs in 3 1/3 innings spanning five outings.  He righted the ship in September, at least ERA-wise, but the southpaw’s $725K buyout was an easy call for the Brewers as compared to his $7.25MM club option.

Wilson, another veteran lefty, did not pitch in 2023.  He underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2022, after which the Brewers signed him on a $1MM guarantee.  The Brewers reinstated Wilson from the 60-day IL in late July, but before he could get into a game he went back to the IL with a lat strain.  That injury knocked him out for the rest of the season, leaving little chance Milwaukee would choose the $2.5MM club option over his $150K buyout.

Chafin and Wilson will join the free agent market for lefty relievers, and figure to sign one-year deals.

The Brewers do have some lefty depth in the bullpen, as Hoby Milner posted a fine 2023 season.  Aaron Ashby, who underwent April labrum surgery, wasn’t able to build back up to help the Brewers this year but should be good to go in Spring Training.  Ashby is a potential rotation candidate as well.

Brewers, Diamondbacks Swap Andrew Chafin For Peter Strzelecki

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The Brewers have picked up left-hander Andrew Chafin in a trade with the Diamondbacks, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link).  John Gambadoro of 98.7 FM Phoenix reports that right-hander Peter Strzelecki is headed back to the D’Backs in return.  Rosenthal linked Milwaukee to Chafin’s market earlier today.

Give how Arizona also just landed Paul Sewald from the Mariners yesterday, it makes for an interesting buy/sell dynamic with the Diamondbacks’ front office.  Obviously the D’Backs have designs on reaching the postseason, yet still opted to pull the trigger on dealing a reliever who is technically a rental player, since Chafin only signed a one-year, $6.25MM deal last winter.  However, he is controllable through next season via a $7.25MM club option ($750K buyout), so the Brew Crew could potentially be viewing Chafin as a member of their 2024 bullpen.  Incidentally, Chafin also receives a $250K bonus now that he has been traded.

That said, the D’Backs are also getting back a controllable reliever in Strzelecki, who has posted some good results over his two MLB seasons.  Since Strzelecki isn’t a free agent until after the 2028 season and naturally comes at a much lower price tag than Chafin, the Diamondbacks saved some money while perhaps not taking much of a hit to the overall quality of their relief corps.

Chafin has a 4.19 ERA over 34 1/3 innings this season, with that number only just inflated by a disastrous outing (five runs in two-thirds of an inning) against the Braves on July 24.  The southpaw’s SIERA is a more solid 3.38, and his 32.7% strikeout rate put him the 94th percentile of all pitchers.  Chafin’s control has fluctuated throughout his career, and the pendulum has swung down this season, as he has an ungainly 12.0% walk rate.

Now in his 10th MLB season, Chafin has been a generally reliable relief arm over his career, and he’ll now change uniforms once again to join a Brewers team in severe need of left-handed depth.  While Hoby Milner is having a strong season, he has been the only left-hander in Milwaukee’s bullpen for most of the season.  The Brewers were hoping to have Justin Wilson back from Tommy John surgery, yet Wilson unfortunately suffered a lat strain while warming up in his return outing, and was placed back onto the 15-day injured list.

With no timeline yet on Wilson’s return, it is easy to see why the Brewers were so aggressive in seeking out another left-hander, and in dealing a controllable pitcher from their right-handed relief depth.  Strzelecki was an undrafted free agent for the Brewers in 2018, but he made his way to the majors to toss 70 2/3 innings for Milwaukee over the last two seasons.  Despite near-identical SIERAs (3.47 and 3.66) and pretty similar secondary metrics over his two years of work, Strzelecki had a 2.83 ERA over 35 frames in 2022, but a 4.54 ERA in 35 2/3 innings this season.

One of a few hidden pitching gems uncovered by the Brewers front office and pitching development staff, Strzelecki has a 25.3% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate over his career, both above the league average.  A slightly loss of control (though not in the walk category) could be one reason for Strzelecki’s relative dropoff in performance this year, as he has hit eight batters.  The Brewers only just called Strzelecki back up from the minors after a month-long stint at Triple-A, and he didn’t make another appearance prior to the trade.

Cubs Interested In Left-Handed Bullpen Arms

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The Cubs, after surging back to .500 ahead of the trade deadline thanks to a recent eight-game win streak, have left their previously-expected role as sellers behind them and instead pivoted toward buying by landing third baseman Jeimer Candelario in a deal with the Nationals yesterday. With just a couple of hours left before the trade deadline, Chicago appears to have at least one more item on their shopping list: relief pitching, particularly from the left side.

Both Bruce Levine of WSCR-AM and Jesse Rogers of ESPN have linked the club to the lefty relief market in recent days, with Levine noting the club’s interest in Mets left-hander Brooks Raley while Rogers lists Rockies southpaw Brent Suter and Aaron Bummer of the White Sox as potential options for the Cubs. Jon Heyman of the New York Post, meanwhile, suggested a reunion with the Cubs as one possible destination for Diamondbacks lefty Andrew Chafin, who he suggests “could be dealt” before this evening’s deadline.

While the club appears to have a preference for a southpaw, they’ve also apparently explored adding right-handed relief options, as Levine reports the club has “kicked the tires” on Pirates closer David Bednar while Rogers suggests the club could have interest in Tigers right-handers Alex Lange and Jason Foley. While the club already added a right-handed relief option yesterday by acquiring Jose Cuas from the Royals, each of Bednar, Lange, and Foley would figure to be a more impactful option than Cuas, who sports a 4.54 ERA in 45 appearances this season.

That the bullpen would be a focus for Chicago is hardly a surprise, as the club’s 3.93 in the bullpen this season ranks middle-of-the-pack, with offseason acquisitions Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer having largely struggled in Chicago while expected late-inning options Keegan Thompson and Brandon Hughes have struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness.

Diamondbacks Listening To Trade Offers On Andrew Chafin, Joe Mantiply

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11:40am: Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds the Cubs and Twins as fits for Chafin. The Cubs have Anthony Kay as their only traditional lefty reliever right now. The Twins have Jovani Moran and Caleb Thielbar, the latter of whom just returned from the injured list.

11:06am: The Diamondbacks made a big addition to their bullpen yesterday when they acquired Paul Sewald from the Mariners. It seems they have at least some openness to now subtracting from their relief corps, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports they have fielded offers for lefties Andrew Chafin and Joe Mantiply, with the Brewers listed as a team with interest in Chafin.

On the surface, it’s a little bit curious to see the Diamondbacks considering this path, as they just parted with infielder Josh Rojas, rookie outfielder Dominic Canzone and infield prospect Ryan Bliss in order to upgrade their bullpen with Sewald. They are currently tied with two other clubs for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. To now turn and remove pieces from the group would be a bit of an odd move, though listening on offers doesn’t necessarily mean the club will indeed make a move, as front offices are generally open to listening on all offers in order to gauge the market.

Chafin, 33, has long been one of the better lefty relievers in the league, with a 3.31 career earned run average over 519 appearances. Over 2021 and 2022, he made 135 of those appearances, posting a 2.29 ERA with a 25.7% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 47.9% ground ball rate. The Diamondbacks were able to bring him aboard on a one-year deal this offseason, guaranteeing him $6.25MM in the form of a $5.5MM salary plus a $750K buyout on a $7.25MM club option. There’s also $1MM in bonuses available, with Chafin getting $250K at 55, 60, 65 and 70 appearances, then another $250K bonus if he’s traded.

He has already made 43 appearances on the year, putting him close to triggering those bonuses. His 4.19 ERA in that time is obviously a drop-off from his recent work, though there’s still some decent numbers under the hood. His 35.4% grounder rate and 12% walk rate are less than ideal, but his 32.7% strikeout rate is easily a career best. A .350 batting average on balls in play has probably helped some extra runs across the board, leading to a 3.13 FIP and 3.38 SIERA.

Left-handed relief is always in demand and there would likely be plenty of clubs willing to look past Chafin’s ERA, especially given his long track record of success and intriguing strikeout bump. Rosenthal says the Diamondbacks are still looking for starting pitching, something that general manager Mike Hazen has long been open about. They might not be able to flip a reliever like Chafin for meaningful help in the rotation but it makes sense that they would at least listen to see what’s possible. They would still have Kyle Nelson and Tyler Gilbert as lefties in their bullpen even without Chafin.

Arizona listening on Mantiply is far easier to understand. He had a really solid showing in the previous two seasons, posting a combined 3.07 ERA in 2021 and 2022, getting selected to the All-Star game in the latter season. He struck out 23.6% of opponents in that time while walking just 5.5% and kept the ball on the ground at a 50.5% pace.

Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to carry that into 2023, as he has a 5.74 ERA in 15 2/3 innings. He’s been on the injured list twice, once due to left shoulder inflammation and then a right hamstring strain. He’s been sent to Triple-A Reno on optional assignment twice, the second of which is currently ongoing. He has a 7.30 ERA down at that level. But his rate stats are still decent this year, with poor strand rates and some extra fly balls leaving the yard perhaps making things look worse than they actually are. If any club is willing to bank on Mantiply’s past results and hope for a bounceback, it would make sense for the Diamdondbacks to hear that out since he’s not even on their active roster at the moment.

The Brewers have operated with one lefty, Hoby Milner, for most of the year. They had Justin Wilson come off the injured list this week after over a year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but he quickly landed right back on the IL due to a lat strain. They’re a fairly sensible landing spot for a southpaw reliever as they battle with for the Central division title or a Wild Card spot in the National League.

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