Alex Cobb

AL East Notes: O’s, Cobb, Red Sox, Pomeranz, Blue Jays

By Connor Byrne | March 21, 2018 at 5:07pm CDT

The Orioles officially signed Alex Cobb on Wednesday, but they weren’t serious suitors for him as of February because his asking price was too high, Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com hears. But Cobb told Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun and other reporters Wednesday: “They didn’t stop bothering me the whole offseason. They were very persistent, and I think that you notice that confidence they have in you just by the way they speak to you, and the questions they ask and not questioning anything that’s gone on.” The Orioles’ insistence on signing Cobb came from John and Lou Angelos, sons of owner Peter Angelos, according to Connolly, who reports that the duo recently made “a hard push” to add the right-hander, who landed a four-year, $57MM deal.

And now the latest on a pair of Baltimore’s division rivals…

While Red Sox southpaw Drew Pomeranz has recently made progress in his recovery from a mild flexor strain, odds are that he’ll start the season on the disabled list, Ian Browne of MLB.com writes. Meanwhile, Browne relays that there’s more hope for Red Sox lefty Eduardo Rodriguez and righty Steven Wright, each of whom underwent knee surgery last year. If they’re both ready to open the season on time, they’ll follow Chris Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello in Boston’s rotation. Otherwise, the Red Sox’s top fallback choices are lefty Brian Johnson and righty Hector Velazquez.
The Blue Jays have informed left-handed reliever Craig Breslow that he won’t make the team, Jon Heyman of FanRag tweets. Breslow will have a chance to opt out of his minor league contract Thursday. The 37-year-old has struggled in spring action, having allowed five earned runs on 10 hits and four walks, with five strikeouts, in 6 2/3 innings.
Blue Jays righty Joe Biagini is likely to begin the season at the Triple-A level, per Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com. In doing so, he’ll continue developing as a starter. The Jays, with Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada and Jaime Garcia in their rotation, don’t have room for Biagini in their starting staff. Biagini was a key component of Toronto’s bullpen in 2016, his rookie season, but he went backward as both a starter and reliever last season.

Orioles Sign Alex Cobb

By Mark Polishuk | March 21, 2018 at 5:03pm CDT

TODAY, 5:03pm: Heyman has the layout of Cobb’s contract (Twitter link). He’ll make $14MM in each year from 2018-2020, including $6.5MM deferred without interest this season and $4.5MM deferred without interest in both ’19 and ’20. Cobb will earn $15MM in 2021 and either $4.75MM deferred without interest or $9.75MM deferred without interest, if he throws fewer than 130 innings. If he amasses 180 innings in any of those seasons, he’ll rake in an extra $500K.

9:38am: Cobb has passed the notoriously stringent Orioles’ physical, Heyman tweets, making the deal official. It has also been announced by the organization.

The deal includes a no-trade provision, Heyman adds on Twitter. Cobb picks up full no-trade rights until this coming November and will be able to block deals to ten clubs from that point forward.

There’ll be $20MM in deferred money, Kubatko tweets, though the precise manner of the structure has yet to be reported. When that’s factored in, the present-day value of the deal is $47MM, he adds, though that is a number that’s certainly subject to quite a bit of interpretation. Every multi-year deal, after all, includes future obligations that can be discounted to a lump-sum current dollar amount, and the math is dependent upon what approach is utilized to perform the discount.

YESTERDAY, 9:19PM: Cobb and the Orioles have agreed that he’ll begin the season in the minors for a brief spell in order to get properly stretched out, BaltimoreBaseball.com’s Dan Connolly reports. Cobb had enough service time to refuse a minor league assignment even though he has an option remaining, though obviously both sides felt a short stint on the farm was necessary.

6:53PM: The four-year deal will be worth $57MM, an MLB official tells 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine (Twitter link). There is deferred money in each of the four years, Kubatko tweets.

6:06PM: The Orioles have agreed to sign right-hander Alex Cobb, with FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reporting (Twitter link) that the two sides had worked out a four-year deal believed to be worth close to $60MM. Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reported earlier today that there was “a strong belief” that Cobb was close to a contract, with the Orioles considered to be the favorite. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links) confirmed the link between Cobb and the O’s, and noted that the deal will be official once Cobb passes a physical, while MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko was the first to report that the deal was a four-year agreement. Cobb is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.

Cobb was long seen as a natural fit for the Orioles given their severe need for starting pitching, and the team indeed reportedly expressed interest in Cobb quite early in the offseason. While it wasn’t necessarily a surprise to see the two sides end up in an agreement, however, there are some eyebrow-raising elements to this signing given the size and length of the contract.

As Passan noted, Cobb has been holding out for a multi-year deal, as opposed to the one-year contracts that several notable players were forced to settle for in recent weeks due to the unprecedented lack of activity in the free agent market. Lance Lynn, for instance, was Cobb’s closest comparable on the open market and Lynn wound up signing a one-year, $12MM deal with the Twins. Lynn, however, was also in talks with the Orioles and potentially left a longer-term offer on the table in order to sign with Minnesota, believing that the Twins had a better shot at contending in 2018.

Lynn’s rejection could have been what inspired the Orioles to give Cobb four years to solidify its rotation, as it was believed that the club was no longer willing to go beyond a three-year contract for a pitcher in the wake of the disastrous Ubaldo Jimenez signing. Furthermore, the organization has long been very particular about signing veteran pitchers due to injury concerns, so it represents a bold step for owner Peter Angelos to sign off the biggest pitcher contract in franchise history for Cobb, who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015. (It’s worth noting that the O’s have changed or even abandoned agreements in the past due to concerns about pitcher health, so Cobb’s physical probably represents a bigger final hurdle than usual in most player signings.)

While many free agents left this winter’s market feeling short-changed, Cobb ended up finding his desired four-year guarantee and a very healthy salary. MLB Trade Rumors ranked Cobb 11th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and projected him for a four-year, $48MM deal. Heyman reports that Cobb rejected an offer of that exact size from the Cubs earlier this winter, and despite the free agent deep freeze, eventually landed a more lucrative deal.

[Updated Orioles depth chart at Roster Resource]

It may be too close to Opening Day for Cobb to be ready for the very beginning of the season, though when he is set, the 30-year-old could very well be the ace of Baltimore’s rotation. The O’s went into the offseason with only Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy established in the starting five, and were in talks about a wide variety of free agent and trade possibilities. Executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette has developed a pattern of late-winter signings during his time in Baltimore, and he stuck to that strategy again this year to rebuild his rotation, signing Andrew Cashner, re-signing Chris Tillman, and now adding Cobb within the last five weeks.

Cobb provides Baltimore with a solid, AL East-tested arm who looked to be front-of-the-rotation material in 2013-14 before getting his TJ surgery in 2015. The procedure cost Cobb all of that season and limited him to just five starts in 2016, though he rebounded for a 3.66 ERA, 6.4 K/9, and 2.91 K/BB rate over 179 1/3 innings for the Rays last season. The post-surgery version of Cobb is striking out fewer batters than the pre-2015 Cobb, and his already-middling swinging strike rate took another drop to just 6.7% last season, plus his 36.9% hard-hit ball rate was a career high.

These concerns notwithstanding, it should be noted that Cobb pitched better as the season wore on, which is a good sign that he could fully back to his old self. Even the 2017 version of Cobb would represent a big upgrade for the Orioles over fifth starter candidates such as Mike Wright, Nestor Cortes Jr. or Miguel Castro. The O’s now face some roster-shuffling questions with these arms (Wright is out of options and Cortes is a Rule 5 pick), though they could all possibly be used in the bullpen.

Needless to say, this surplus of arms is now an unexpectedly good problem to have for an Orioles team that has positioned itself to stay competitive within a tough AL East. The length of Cobb’s deal also indicates that the O’s aren’t planning for a rebuild after 2018. Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Zach Britton, and Brad Brach will all be free agents next winter (plus Duquette and manager Buck Showalter are entering their last year under contract), though Baltimore now has Cobb, Gausman, Bundy, Trey Mancini, Mychal Givens, and Chris Davis as core pieces through at least the 2020 season, plus prospects like Austin Hays and Chance Sisco.

Since Cobb rejected a qualifying offer from the Rays, the O’s will have to surrender their third-highest pick (51st overall) in the 2018 amateur draft, as they were a revenue-sharing recipient that didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold. Because Cobb received more than $50MM in guaranteed money, the Rays are now in line to receive a compensation pick after the first round of the draft. This will actually be one of two picks for Tampa Bay in the “sandwich round,” as the Rays are also slated for a compensatory pick for not signing 31st-overall pick Drew Rasmussen in last year’s draft class.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Orioles Designate Jose Mesa Jr., Announce Alex Cobb Signing

By Jeff Todd | March 21, 2018 at 12:00pm CDT

The Orioles have designated Rule 5 righty Jose Mesa Jr. for assignment, per a club announcement. His roster spot will go to veteran starter Alex Cobb, whose four-year contract is now official.

Mesa, 24, was the last of three pitchers taken by the Baltimore organization in the most recent Rule 5 draft. Obtaining his rights in full from the Yankees would have required that the O’s carry him for all of the upcoming season on the active roster. Now, unless his Rule 5 rights are either traded for or claimed off waivers, Mesa will be offered back to the Yanks.

The young hurler obviously showed enough to draw interest from the Orioles after being left unprotected. In 84 innings at the High-A and Double-A levels last year, he allowed just 18 earned runs on 48 hits and 32 walks while recording 101 strikeouts. But it seems he’ll need some more seasoning before trying out the majors. Mesa struggled in his chances this spring, recording five strikeouts and seven walks in 7 2/3 innings.

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Alex Cobb Signing

By Jeff Todd | March 21, 2018 at 9:06am CDT

After watching a variety of quality free agents settle for shorter and less-lucrative contracts than expected — including established veteran starter Lance Lynn — it seemed that right-hander Alex Cobb would likewise need to take what he could get and plan to return to the open market in the near future in search of a heftier pact. Instead, he struck a surprising four-year, $57MM deal yesterday with the Orioles.

Of course, that contract wouldn’t have seemed out of line when the offseason got underway. MLBTR tabbed Cobb the 11th-best free agent available and predicted he’d secure a four-year contract with a $48MM guarantee — not far off from where he ultimately landed. But we also guessed four and $56MM for Lynn, who got just $12MM from the Twins despite signing a few weeks before Cobb and carrying a broadly similar overall profile in terms of age and track record. And when we reexamined the market before Lynn’s signing, we downgraded expectations for both hurlers.

Needless to say, this winter’s market has been something of a moving target. At the end of the day, though, Cobb will land a sizable but generally market-rate deal with an organization that came into the winter as perhaps the most pitching-needy would-be contender in baseball. If the deal is finalized, Cobb will join Andrew Cashner and the re-signed Chris Tillman as free-agent additions to a staff that already featured Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman.

There are still questions up and down that five-man crew, but the overall talent base on the pitching staff is quite a bit higher now than at the outset of the offseason. One can argue that the O’s ought not to have made a commitment of this magnitude entering the organization’s final season of control over Manny Machado and Adam Jones. On the other hand, it’s hard to condemn a club for spending to win, especially when so many others are focusing on the future. And while the Cobb contract hardly seems a bargain, it’s roughly in range of his market value and arguably delivers some upside given Cobb’s history as a top-of-the-rotation presence. He was, after all, one of the most effective starters in the AL East in 2013-14 and delivered 179 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA pitching in 2017.

How would you grade the move from the team’s perspective? (Link for app users.)

Orioles Close To Agreement With Alex Cobb

By Mark Polishuk | March 20, 2018 at 5:50pm CDT

5:50PM: If completed, the deal would be a four-year pact, according to MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko (Twitter link).

5:19PM: Rosenthal hears from a source that a deal is indeed close, though the three-year/$50MM terms from Rosenthal’s previous report are “not accurate.”

4:39PM: Right-hander Alex Cobb’s long stay in the free agent market could be nearing an end, as Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link) “there’s a strong belief that” Cobb is closing in on a new contract. The Orioles are considered by most to be the favorites to sign the 30-year-old, according to Passan, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter) reports that the deal between the two sides is expected to be at least a three-year pact. Rosenthal adds that the O’s and Cobb had been discussing contracts in the range of three years and $50MM.

Cobb and the O’s have been linked for much of the offseason, as the righty was a natural fit for a Baltimore team that entered the winter with a dire need for pitching. The Orioles have already turned to free agency to sign Andrew Cashner and re-sign Chris Tillman, with those two veterans slotting in behind Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy in the rotation. Cobb would not only be a decided upgrade over current fifth starter candidates Mike Wright, Nestor Cortes Jr., and Miguel Castro, but the argument could be made that Cobb would be the best starter on Baltimore’s entire staff.

As Passan noted, Cobb has been holding out for a multi-year deal, as opposed to the one-year contracts that several notable players (i.e. Lance Lynn, Mike Moustakas, Carlos Gonzalez, Jonathan Lucroy, Logan Morrison, Neil Walker) have been forced to settle for in recent weeks due to the unprecedented lack of activity in the free agent market. Given this environment, a deal in the $50MM neighborhood would be a particularly nice result for Cobb and his representatives at the Beverly Hills Sports Council. That would actually be higher than the $48MM MLB Trade Rumors predicted Cobb would receive when we ranked him 11th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, though we projected that $48MM to come over a four-year contract.

AL Notes: Rays, Cobb, Archer, Twins, Tigers, A’s

By Connor Byrne | March 19, 2018 at 12:21pm CDT

Even though right-hander Alex Cobb is still a free agent as the regular season closes in, there won’t be a reunion between him and the Rays, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. Cobb’s not going to end up signing for a price the Rays deem palatable, Topkin suggests, even though he’s amid a highly disappointing trip to free agency after rejecting the team’s $17.4MM qualifying offer at the outset of the offseason. As they begin life without Cobb, the Rays are set to use a four-man rotation – something their top starter, Chris Archer, discussed with Travis Sawchik of FanGraphs. “The concept makes sense,” said Archer, who noted it’s particularly logical for low-payroll teams to have “four guys on the shuttle making $500,000 each,” as opposed to one player earning $2MM-plus. Although, Archer cautioned that it’s “hard to sustain” a bullpen-heavy plan over the course of a 162-game season. Archer’s also wary about how teams going to more of a bullpen approach could affect player development, as he explained to Sawchik, whose quote-filled piece is worth reading in full.

AL East Notes: Tulo, Axford, Clippard, Torres, O’s, Cobb, BoSox

By Steve Adams and Jeff Todd | March 13, 2018 at 10:58pm CDT

Blue Jays skipper John Gibbons signaled on Monday that Troy Tulowitzki won’t be ready for Opening Day, writes MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. “I think you can write Tulo off [for Opening Day] right now,” said Gibbons of his shortstop, who is currently dealing with a bone spur in his right heel. Tulo’s lack of availability likely means the Jays will carry just seven relievers to open the season Morosi notes, which will allow the team to bring four middle infielders — Devon Travis, Aledmys Diaz, Yangervis Solarte and Gift Ngoepe — when they break camp.

Meanwhile, both John Axford and Tyler Clippard are likely to make the Blue Jays’ bullpen after signing minor league deals, per Morosi. Gibbons praised a new two-seam fastball that Axford has been utilizing as well as improved control from the veteran righty. “What’s jumped out at me is he’s keeping that thing in the zone,” said Gibbons. “What little I’ve known in the past, at times he could scatter, but really that hasn’t happened at all this spring. That’s encouraging. And he still throws really, really hard.”

Market Notes: Jay, Moustakas, Cobb

By Jeff Todd | March 13, 2018 at 8:33am CDT

Several reporters have turned their gazes back on the more confounding free-agent market in recent memory, chronicling some of the more incongruous results and providing additional reporting on how it all unfolded. We’ll run through some of the key points here:

It’s always worth remembering that free agency is a game that features plenty of variability and would never (theoretically) be played the same way twice. Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports on what might have been for some players. Logan Morrison and Greg Holland both asked for more than was being offered and ended up being bypassed when teams checked down to other targets. The Mariners, says Olney, dangled three years to veteran outfielder Jon Jay before they struck a trade for Dee Gordon. (That rather surprising offer could have had quite a domino effect on the outfield and second base markets had it been accepted.) On the other hand, Olney cites Angels sources that reject the notion the club offered Mike Moustakas a $45MM contract, as had been reported. Of course, had any of those situations developed differently, it’s possible we’d just be talking about different players whose markets collapsed.
As part of his lengthy examination of the brutal winter for free agency, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports has an interesting note on one of the few top players yet to have signed. Veteran starter Alex Cobb, he says, was in position to secure a four-year, $48MM offer at one point earlier in the winter (from an unknown team) and “easily” could have landed a three-year guarantee. We’re obviously still waiting to see just what Cobb will ultimately earn, but needless to say, it seems unlikely he’ll reach the levels he might have had previously. In the meantime, several lesser pitchers have gone on to sign fairly solid, multi-year deals, perhaps absorbing some of the demand that might have led to a better payout for Cobb.
Every period of free agency produces highs and lows, of course, but they seem particularly pronounced this time around with such an array of outcomes. Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Jon Heyman of Fan Rag have each run through the winners and losers on this shocker of a market.

Central Notes: Royals, Liriano, Cobb, Brewers

By Steve Adams | March 12, 2018 at 7:32pm CDT

The Royals would still like to add help in either the rotation or the bullpen, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, but their payroll is elevated to the point where they have very little room for further additions. As such, a reunion with still-lingering free agent Greg Holland seems “extremely remote,” Nightengale adds. Over the past couple of weeks, the Royals have signed Lucas Duda ($3.5MM), Jon Jay ($3MM) and Mike Moustakas ($6.5MM) in a late trio of additions, pushing their payroll up into the $122MM range.

AL Central Notes: Lynn, Twins, Hahn, Jay, Indians

By Steve Adams | March 6, 2018 at 9:00pm CDT

The Twins’ recently reported two-year offer to Lance Lynn was for a total of $20MM, reports Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Lynn’s camp considered that offer a “non-starter,” however, according to Berardino. Minnesota remains open to adding a starter on an affordable and relatively short-term pact, Berardino continues, noting that outside of the team’s $100MM+ offer to Yu Darvish, all of their offseason free-agent dealings have been at one- or two-year terms. He adds that the Twins aren’t aggressively pursuing Alex Cobb, and given Lynn’s apparent unwillingness to consider a two-year term, it seems unlikely that Minnesota will ultimately be a landing spot for any of the top three remaining starters. There are still a few intriguing names on the market who could sign shorter-term deals, including John Lackey and Trevor Cahill, though the Twins haven’t been strongly tied to any of them.

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