Alex Cobb

Examining The Orioles Rotation

By TC Zencka | December 26, 2020 at 9:56am CDT

For the first time in a few years, the Baltimore Orioles plan to begin the 2021 season with a rotation that fans can dream on. They’re not quite ready to challenge the Yankees or the Rays for the division, but neither will their roster be flooded with journeymen and July trade candidates – at least not entirely.

Make no mistake, the Orioles will count as a surprise if they don’t finish in fifth place in the East, but songs of progress are sung in many different keys. The Orioles are entering Year Three under GM Mike Elias, which under most circumstances should call for the beginnings of the organization’s on-field transformation. Last year’s 25-35 record was a step in the right direction after back-to-back 100-loss seasons, but that still put them on a roughly 95-loss pace over a full campaign.

Progress for the Orioles this season begins in the rotation where youngsters Dean Kremer and Keegan Akin plan to slot behind John Means and Alex Cobb, per MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. Means and Cobb hardly make for a bone-chilling front of the rotation, but there ought not to be much question about their ability to stick in the rotation for a full season.

Means has been worth roughly 2.2 bWAR per 150 innings over his first two seasons, though there’s a stark contrast between his first half of 2019 and the time since. The 33-year-old Cobb, meanwhile, returned to form in 2020 with a 4.30 ERA/4.87 FIP in 52 1/3 innings over 10 starts. He’s a back-end starter at this point and could serve as eventual trade bait, but at least for the first half of the season, he ought to help protect the bullpen from overuse.

Where Means and Cobb secure the floor, Akin and Kremer raise the ceiling. The right-handed Kremer made four starts in 2020 with a 4.82 ERA/2.76 FIP. He struggled a bit with command (5.8 BB/9), but a high-spin fastball deployed up and a cutter with 4.4 inches of horizontal movement helped him secure 10.6 K/9 in his first taste of big league action. Kremer came to the Orioles as part of the Manny Machado package, but his slider looked like a difference-making pitch at the time, and his arsenal has shifted in the years since.

What that means isn’t yet clear. There’s been some question about whether Kremer has stuff enough to stick in the rotation long-term, but the Orioles are going to give the soon-to-be 25-year-old a chance. Internally, he might be their best chance for a first-division rotation type before prospects like Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall start arriving in a couple years.

The southpaw Akin boasts a similar profile, but from the other side. Both pitchers surrendered hard contact in 2020, but they still showed enough to manage a spot in the rotation. If either one can build on their 2020 performance to take firm hold of rotation innings, the Orioles could continue to grow their win totals in 2021. On the other hand, none of the front four seem particularly likely to develop into a frontline arm. They still seek high-impact talent in that department. The Orioles rotations ranked 19th in fWAR, 23rd in ERA and 24th in FIP, so they’ll need to improve to make much hay in the American League.

On the offensive end, Adley Rutschman has the chance to be the kind of impact player an organization can rally around. The former first overall draft choice will begin 2021 in Double-A, noted Kubatko. As Rutchschman nears, Elias should feel some pressure to field a competitive team around him. Even if Akin and Kremer aren’t exactly Johnson and Schilling, they can begin to lay the groundwork for a professional roster.

East Notes: Cobb, Mets, Mayza, Nationals

By Mark Polishuk | December 13, 2020 at 10:59pm CDT

As the recent trade of Jose Iglesias to the Angels indicates, the Orioles are open to moving any veteran on their roster, particularly those making a significant salary. Alex Cobb (owed $15MM in 2021) certainly qualifies as a trade candidate, though GM Mike Elias suggested to MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski and other reporters that the Orioles could keep the 33-year-old righty at least into the start of the season. “I have no doubt if he pitches like Alex Cobb, he’s going to draw interest and we’re going to ultimately see where we’re at and see what the situation is….I think it would be beneficial for us to go into the season with Alex if that’s the way that it shakes out and having that front end spot in the rotation fortified with his ability and veteran presence,” Elias said.

Cobb signed a four-year, $57MM deal just prior to the start of the 2018 season, and after struggling in 2018 and missing almost all of 2019 due to injury, Cobb had solid bottom-line numbers over 10 starts this past season. The right-hander posted a 4.30 ERA, 2.11 K/BB rate, 54.5% grounder rate, and 6.5 K/9 over 52 1/3 innings, though Statcast was thoroughly unimpressed by his performance. Those metrics and Cobb’s hefty salary certainly limit his trade value at the moment, so it makes sense that the O’s would see if he can perform better in the early stages of the 2021 campaign in order to possibly leverage him as a trade chip at the deadline. If Cobb can’t be moved but is able to duplicate his 2020 results, Baltimore would at least benefit (as Elias noted) from a dependable arm on the mound.

Here are some other items from both the AL and NL East…

The Mets have been linked to just about every big name free agent this winter, though The New York Post’s Joel Sherman wonders if the team might take a more measured approach to its winter shopping. Rather than splurge on any of the “big four” free agents (Trevor Bauer, George Springer, J.T. Realmuto, and DJ LeMahieu), Sherman opines that New York could direct its resources towards “dominating the second tier” of the market. Such roster upgrades would still make the team better “while potentially saving money and prospects for the July trade market — and beyond.” Signing James McCann rather than Realmuto could be a hint that the team is deploying such a tactic, though the other school of thought suggests that McCann was signed so the Mets could save some money for a bigger push to land Bauer or Springer.
After undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2019, Blue Jays left-hander Tim Mayza is looking forward to returning to action in Spring Training, The Toronto Star’s Laura Armstrong writes. Mayza’s rehab was more complicated the normal TJ recovery process, as Mayza had to also recover from a torn flexor tendon (suffered at the same time as his UCL tear) and spend much of his time working out at home rather than at team facilities due to the COVID-19 lockdown. If that wasn’t enough, Mayza tested positive for the coronavirus this fall, though he was thankfully asymptomatic during his two weeks of quarantine. “Although it’s been different, my rehab was not stalled at all through all this,” Mayza said. “I’ve continued to stay on track and the end goal of being 100 per cent by spring training is very much a realistic goal.” Mayza has a 4.67 ERA, 2.71 K/BB rate, 48.6% grounder rate, and 10.6 K/9 over 104 innings with Toronto from 2017-19, and he has held left-handed batters to a .217/.288/.349 slash line over 208 plate appearances. With a lack of southpaw relief options on the Jays’ 40-man roster, there is certainly opportunity for Mayza to win a job if he looks good in camp.
The Mets’ signing of McCann took the catching market’s second-best option off the board, further limiting the free agent choices for teams in need of help behind the plate. The Nationals are one of those clubs, and as Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes, “they’re either going to have to spend well north of $100MM on Realmuto or hope one of the remaining lesser options is good enough” if the Nats turn to free agency for catching help. Realmuto might be out of the picture given the indications that the Nationals aren’t planning on any big spending this offseason, though since Washington still has Yan Gomes, the team might decide that a platoon partner is all that is required at catcher.

American League Injury Updates: Piscotty, Cobb, Keuchel, Pearson

By Jeff Todd | September 9, 2020 at 11:00pm CDT

Here are the latest updates on a few injury situations from around the American League …

The Athletics will go a few days without full participation from outfielder Stephen Piscotty, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle covers on Twitter. (He’s pinch running as we speak.) Thankfully, it seems there’s reason to hope he’ll bounce back quickly after receiving a cortisone shot to his balky wrist. Piscotty has turned in a useful but hardly world-beating .264/.308/.438 batting line on the season.
Orioles righty Alex Cobb is days away from a return, with outfielder Austin Hays seemingly not far behind, as skipper Brandon Hyde tells reporters including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (Twitter link). Cobb’s absence is as yet not fully explained; the quick turnaround could indicate that he had to step away owing to coronavirus protocols. Regardless, it’s good news that he’s expected to jump right back into active duty.
The White Sox don’t appear overly concerned with the health status of lefty Dallas Keuchel. He’ll plan to miss a start after taking an early exit from his last outing due to lower back issues, but that’s expected to be the extent of the missed time, as Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times and others mentioned on Twitter. Keuchel has thus far justified the South Siders’ faith in signing him, running up 53 1/3 innings of 2.19 ERA ball.
Exciting young Blue Jays hurler Nate Pearson is likely not going to build back to a full starter’s role, skipper Charlie Montoyo told reporters including MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm (Twitter links). That’s sensible for a variety of reasons. For one thing, there really isn’t much time to ramp him up. For another, it’s not clear that’d be the right role after Pearson ran into some early MLB struggles. The firmly contending Toronto outfit can certainly make use of Pearson in a relief role while still getting him valuable work at the game’s highest level.

Orioles Place Alex Cobb On Injured List, Outright Mason Williams

By Steve Adams | September 4, 2020 at 1:04pm CDT

The Orioles announced Friday that righty Alex Cobb has been placed on the injured list. Right-hander Branden Kline has been selected from the team’s alternate training site in his place. Additionally, outfielder Mason Williams cleared waivers and was assigned outright to the alternate site, while infielder Ramon Urias has been added as the 29th man for today’s twin bill.

No reason was provided for Cobb’s IL placement, and manager Brandon Hyde would only state that the club is “following protocol” and hopes Cobb can return soon (Twitter link via MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski). That will surely lead to Covid-19 speculation, although it’s worth reminding that a player can be placed on the Covid-19 IL not only for testing positive but also for exhibiting symptoms or coming into contact with someone who has since tested positive. Righty Tom Eshelman will start in Cobb’s place today.

Cobb, 32, is in the midst of what has been a mostly solid rebound campaign. He was torched by the Blue Jays in his most recent start but still carries a 4.33 ERA with 6.1 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.27 HR/9 and an impressive 55.9 percent ground-ball rate. He was viewed as a possible trade candidate prior to the deadline earlier this week, though Baltimore surely would’ve had to pay down the bulk of his contract in order to facilitate a deal; Cobb is being paid a $14MM salary in 2020 (prorated to $5.04MM) and is also set to be paid $15MM in 2021 — the final season of his four-year, $57MM deal.

The 28-year-old Kline was hit hard in his debut campaign last year, yielding a 5.93 ERA with a 34-to-19 K/BB ratio and nine homers allowed in 41 innings. Last year’s poor showing aside, however, Kline has had some success in the upper minors. The 2012 second-rounder missed all of the 2016-17 seasons but came back with a brilliant 1.64 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 through 65 2/3 minor league frames. He’ll give the O’s some depth in the ’pen with Cobb sidelined for a yet-to-be-determined period of time.

Williams, 29, went 2-for-11 with the O’s in a small sample before he was removed from the roster. The former Yankees prospect had a solid showing with the 2018 Reds when he hit .293/.331/.398 in a career-high 132 plate appearances, but he hasn’t had much success (or opportunity) at the MLB level outside that 51-game stint. He’ll stay on hand as depth in the team’s 60-man player pool and is eligible to rejoin the club later this season, should a need arise.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Judge, Cobb

By Jeff Todd | April 23, 2020 at 9:37pm CDT

Here’s the latest chatter from the AL East …

So, that whole Red Sox sign-stealing saga is over with now … right? Not entirely, as Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic write (subscription link). The determinations of commissioner Rob Manfred create quite a few questions — not least of which involving his decision to focus the brunt of his punitive power on one Red Sox employee (replay operator J.T. Watkins). Manfred’s actions haven’t sated MLBTR readers, at least, according to the early results of our poll on the punishments. Perhaps the most interesting issue, from a broader perspective, involves the league’s responsibility for managing all this. As Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom puts it: “I also think structurally we ought to do everything we can to make sure that confusion can’t occur and that these aspects of our game are beyond reproach.” Another way to frame the matter: the rules and enforcement regime needs to be set up to ensure results rather than dealing with fallout on an ad hoc basis.
It seemed the Yankees were going to spend the early part of the 2020 season dealing with another odd slate of injuries before the season went on pause. Now that star outfielder Aaron Judge has had plenty of time to figure out what was bothering him (rib stress fracture) and to recuperate … might that be avoided? MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch writes that Judge is working out at the Yankees’ spring complex and taking his time to avoid any unnecessary complications. Judge says he expects to be ready for “doing a little more here in about a week or two,” at which point he can hopefully begin building towards baseball readiness. There’s still nothing close to a clear starting point for the 2020 season, so there’s obviously no rush.
Alex Cobb’s signing is one of several big-contract misfires that have hamstrung the Orioles over the years. But he had seemingly fully recovered from the hip problem that plagued him last year, MLB.com’s Joe Trezza writes. Cobb had a rough 2018 season and made only three starts last year, but there’s still time for the 32-year-old to provide at least some value. The best-case scenario probably would’ve been a bounce back during the first half of the 2020 season, potentially setting the stage for a mid-summer deal. Perhaps now the O’s will end up attempting to move Cobb — who’s owed $14MM in 2020 and $15MM in 2021 — over the ensuing offseason, depending upon what (if anything) he’s able to show this year.

AL East Notes: Yankees’ Rotation, Cobb, Blue Jays

By Steve Adams | February 7, 2020 at 8:18am CDT

James Paxton’s back surgery leaves a hole in the Yankees’ rotation, and while the team obviously won’t make any decisions on how to address the vacancy just yet, manager Aaron Boone spoke highly of left-hander Jordan Montgomery when discussing the team’s starting pitching depth (link via George A. King III and Dan Martin of the New York Post). “I think he has proven himself at this level,” Boone said of Montgomery, who posted a 3.88 ERA in 155 1/3 innings back in 2017 before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018. “For him to get back last year was big, just for his frame of mind. The fact he was able to make it back and get some work done, get into some games, I think was big for him and his mindset moving forward.” All signs point to a spring competition to round out the rotation behind Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Yankees bring in a veteran on a minor league deal, although between Montgomery, Luis Cessa and Jonathan Loaisiga, the Yankees do have three options who’ve at least made some big league starts.

Orioles Notes: Cobb, Harvey, Castro

By Steve Adams | September 19, 2019 at 11:18am CDT

The Orioles are hopeful that right-hander Alex Cobb will be ready to go for Spring Training 2020, manager Brandon Hyde tells Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The 31-year-old righty (32 next month) is recovering from surgery to repair a labrum tear in his right hip as well as a separate procedure that repaired a meniscus tear in his knee. “We’ve missed Alex and having a veteran starter like that, there’s a lot of value to that,” Hyde added. There’s little hope of moving Cobb and the $29MM remaining on his deal (which is heavily deferred), though a healthy start to the 2020 season could eventually put him back on the map as a trade candidate. Beyond Dylan Bundy and breakout lefty John Means, the Orioles have virtually no certainty in their rotation, so Cobb should have plenty of opportunity to reestablish himself. The Orioles still seem likely to add some rotation depth in the offseason, although the new-look front office somewhat surprisingly made very few additions in that area last winter when Nate Karns was the team’s lone Major League free-agent signing.

Some more notes out of Baltimore…

Hyde also informed reporters yesterday that right-hander Hunter Harvey has been shut down for the season (Twitter link via Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun). Harvey pitched just 6 1/3 innings at the MLB level (with an 11-to-4 K/BB ratio), but even that brief debut was a significant step forward for the oft-injured former top prospect. Baltimore selected Harvey with the No. 22 pick in the 2013 draft and he quickly came to be ranked among the game’s elite pitching prospects before injuries wiped out several key developmental years. Harvey missed the entire 2015 season and was barely able to compile any innings in 2016 (12 2/3), 2017 (18 2/3) or 2018 (32 1/3). To this point in his career, he’s undergone Tommy John surgery and batted shoulder troubles, making this year’s modest total of 82 innings between Double-A, Triple-A and the big leagues an encouraging sign of progress. That represents Harvey’s largest workload since tossing 87 2/3 frames back in 2014. It might be tempting to try Harvey as a starter again, but he pitched to a 2.81 ERA with a 33-to-7 K/BB ratio in 25 2/3 innings upon moving to the ’pen in the minors.
Speaking of intriguing bullpen pieces, while Miguel Castro’s bottom-line numbers aren’t immediately eye-catching, Joe Trezza of MLB.com observes that there’s some reason for significant optimism when looking at some secondary metrics. Castro has improved his strikeout rate by six percent in 2019 while slightly trimming back his walk rate, and he’s seen a nearly two mile-per-hour increase in his sinker velocity. He’s also made substantial improvements in the quality of the contact he’s allowed, as measured by Statcast. In fact, the gap between Castro’s expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) in 2018 and his 2019 mark is the second-largest improvement among qualified pitchers, trailing only Lucas Giolito. Castro is still averaging 5.1 walks per nine innings and has been plagued by a well-below-average 68.5 percent strand rate, both of which have contributed heavily to his ugly 4.73 ERA. If he can restore his 2016-17 levels of control (3.6 BB/9) while maintaining some of the gains on his ability to miss bats and limit hard contact, there’s some breakout potential. At the very least, that profile seems intriguing enough to tender Castro a contract in his first offseason of arbitration eligibility — particularly given that his first-year salary will be rather modest.

Alex Cobb To Undergo Season-Ending Hip Surgery

By Steve Adams | June 11, 2019 at 4:10pm CDT

Orioles right-hander Alex Cobb will miss the remainder of the 2019 season due to season-ending hip surgery, general manager Mike Elias announced to reporters Tuesday (Twitter links via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). The operation will fix an impingement in his right hip, and Kubatko adds that Cobb might also undergo a procedure on his knee.

Cobb, 31, is in the second season of a four-year, $57MM contract that has blown up in Baltimore’s face to this point. The longtime Rays right-hander got out to a poor start in 2018 but at least gave the club some cause for optimism when he posted a 2.59 ERA and 42-to-18 K/BB ratio in 66 innings down the stretch. That solid stretch of games was only enough to push his overall ERA to 4.90, though, and he was limited to 12 1/3 innings due to a lumbar strain in 2019 prior to today’s announcement.

In all, Cobb has given the Orioles 164 2/3 innings of 5.34 ERA ball over the course of 31 starts since signing his deal. A decent showing in the first half of the year might’ve been enough to allow the Orioles to shed a portion of his contract’s remainder, but that now looks all but impossible. The O’s will have to hope that Cobb can return to health in 2020, if for no other reason than to help soak up innings for a club that is quite thin in terms up upper-level pitching depth in the minors.

Cobb is still set to be paid $14MM in 2020 and $15MM in 2021, but a portion of those salaries are deferred and will be paid out in annual increments from 2023-32.

Orioles Acquire Keon Broxton, Claim Chandler Shepherd

By Jeff Todd | May 22, 2019 at 1:32pm CDT

The Orioles have acquired outfielder Keon Broxton from the Mets and claimed righty Chandler Shepherd from the Cubs, per a club announcement. $500K in international signing bonus slots are headed to the Mets in the swap.

Those additions created a need for two 40-man slots. To do so, the team moved starter Alex Cobb to the 60-day IL and designated fellow righty Yefry Ramirez for assignment.

Broxton, 29, obviously drew some interest since it took a non-trivial trade return to add him. He’ll need to stay on the active roster since he’s out of options. It’ll be interesting to see whether the O’s give him an extended audition in center field. While the results just haven’t been there for Broxton at the game’s highest level, he also has not had much of a chance to get going since the 2017 campaign.

This year has been a wreck so far for Broxton, who saw action in 34 games but took only 53 plate appearances with the Mets. He struck out 22 times in that span while delivering just one extra-base hit. Broxton did still manage to swipe four bags and figures to be a strong contributor in the field and on the bases.

As for the 26-year-old Shepherd, he’s on the move again just days after being claimed by the Cubs from the Red Sox. The right-handed hurler has been hit exceptionally hard this year at Triple-A, allowing 33 earned runs on 53 hits (eleven of them long balls) in 29 2/3 innings. But he had previously been a solid performer in the upper minors. The O’s are in need of innings and may have some ideas for getting him sorted out.

In any event, the organization obviously preferred Shepherd to Ramirez, who has had his own struggles this year. In 10 1/3 MLB frames, Ramirez has issued nine walks against eleven strikeouts while coughing up eight earned runs. Though it had never been an issue in the minors, he also struggled with the free passes last year in the majors.

Orioles Designate Jesus Sucre, Place Alex Cobb On IL

By Connor Byrne | April 28, 2019 at 9:48am CDT

As part of a series of roster moves, the Orioles have designated catcher Jesus Sucre for assignment and placed right-hander Alex Cobb (lumbar strain) on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to Saturday. The team also recalled Sucre’s replacement, catcher Austin Wynns, as well as righties Branden Kline and Luis Ortiz from Triple-A Norfolk, and optioned righty Jimmy Yacabonis.

Sucre made the Orioles’ season-opening roster after signing a minor league deal with the rebuilding team in the offseason, though the light-hitting 30-year-old’s production has fallen short even by his standards. Sucre batted a meager .210/.269/.242 with no home runs in 67 plate appearances prior to his designation. Defensively, while Sucre has always been adept at throwing out runners and has caught 4 of 8 would-be base thieves in 2019, he has been a bottom-of-the-barrel framer this season and has given up an AL-worst three passed balls.

As with Sucre, this season has been tough sledding for Cobb, who has struggled to live up to the four-year, $57MM commitment Baltimore’s prior regime made in him entering 2018. Not only has Cobb pitched to a dreadful 10.95 ERA/11.81 FIP and yielded an eye-popping nine home runs in a three-start, 12 1/3-inning span this season, but this is the second time a lumbar strain has sent him to the IL. The injury previously shelved the 31-year-old for two weeks.

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