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Cafardo’s Latest: Clippard, Thornton, Cobb, Lee, Free Agents

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It’s easy to buy into Spring Training hype, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe notes in his latest column as he looks at some of the major Red Sox storylines heading into camp.  While the Sox have drawn mostly approval for their offseason dealings, Cafardo warns that pundits were saying the same thing last year prior to Boston’s last place season.  Here’s some more from Cafardo’s piece…

  • The Astros have asked about Tyler Clippard.  Houston has already made a couple of big offseason moves to reinforce their bullpen in trading for Ken Giles and re-signing Tony Sipp, and adding Clippard would only further deepen a relief corps that also includes Luke Gregerson, Will Harris, Pat Neshek and Josh Fields.  Clippard’s market was fairly quiet for much of the winter, though as Cafardo notes, things have started to heat up for the veteran righty with at least six teams (including the Rays and Diamondbacks) showing interest.
  • Matt Thornton is drawing interest from around six teams, though the veteran lefty may have to settle for a minor league contract.  Thornton turned 39 in September and has a 1.98 ERA over 77 1/3 innings in 2014 and 2015, though with only a 5.9 K/9 in that stretch, ERA predictors such as xFIP (4.19) and SIERA (3.79) are less enthused with his performance over the last two years.  The Braves, Pirates and Twins were all rumored to have some interest in Thornton earlier this offseason.
  • The Rays are likely to keep their pitching, despite “quite a bit of interest” from other teams about Alex Cobb.
  • Teams have considered signing Cliff Lee, though they’re wary of giving him a contract in the range of $6MM-$8MM (plus incentives).
  • Dan Uggla’s agent says that teams have called about his client, though no side has made any commitments.  The veteran infielder is another player who is likely to only find a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite.
  • “It’s just so slow out there” for the large number of veteran players still on the market, one agent tells Cafardo.  This offseason has been the apex of a growing trend in recent years for teams to spend on a few high-salaried stars and then rely on young, cheap talent for the rest of the roster rather than spend more on established veterans.  This not only goes for the rank-and-file veterans looking for bench jobs but also for would-be starters like Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler and Yovani Gallardo, all of whom have had their markets slowed by the qualifying offer-attached draft compensation required to sign them.  “The [draft-pick] compensation issue is a factor, no question, and we have to do something about it with our collective bargaining talks because this is hurting good baseball players getting jobs,” the agent said.
  • An AL general manager, however, implies that some agents should perhaps be a bit more realistic about their demands.  “The agents are still asking for major league guarantees for players who should be grateful for major league invitations and minor league deals,” the GM said.  “I hear the agents blaming the teams, but I think a lot of teams are willing to add these players. But we’re in February, and quite frankly the signings need to be on our terms at this stage of the game. Eventually, these guys will break down and sign minor deals but we’re close to spring training and there hasn’t been a lot of bend.”

Rays Avoid Arbitration With McGee, Cobb, Guyer

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The Rays have begun ticking through their long list of arb-eligible players in advance of Friday’s deadline to exchange filing figures. According to Jon Heyman, the “file-and-trial” organization struck deals to avoid a hearing with lefty reliever Jake McGee, righty Alex Cobb, and outfielder Brandon Guyer. (Links to Twitter.)

McGee leads the way with a $4.8MM contract for the coming season, per the report. He had been projected by MLBTR to earn $4.7MM through the arbitration process, so he landed just ahead of that figure. The 29-year-old has been lights out for Tampa Bay, racking up 259 2/3 innings of 2.77 ERA pitching in his six seasons there, with 11. K/9 and just 2.5 BB/9. He remains one of the most intriguing names on the trade market for pen arms.

Cobb was an easy case, unfortunately, because he missed all of 2015 with Tommy John surgery. As projected, he landed a repeat salary of $4MM. Tampa Bay will hope he’s able to return to the form that allowed him to compile a 2.82 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 over the 2013-14 campaigns.

The deal with Guyer also lands right along the expected amount, as he’ll earn just a shade less ($1.185MM) than his projection ($1.3MM). Now 29, Guyer has turned into a useful piece over the last two years. In his 679 plate appearances dating back to the start of 2014, he’s slashed a solid .266/.348/.393 with 11 home runs and 16 steals.

Latest On Rays’ Pitching

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With many — but not all — of the top free agent arms now gone from the market, the Rays appear to be ramping up discussions involving their pitchers. Tampa Bay has long been said to be willing to listen on its array of starters and late-inning relievers, though it hasn’t made any deals since shipping Nate Karns to the Mariners to kick off the winter’s activities.

Here’s the latest:

  • The Rays are engaged in “’many’ active trade conversations” involving pitching, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported yesterday on Twitter. It seems as if the club’s previous talks, which appeared to have some steam during the Winter Meetings, have been re-joined now that the market has gained additional clarity.
  • Indeed, Tampa Bay has “picked up the pace” on discussions, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. The team is still holding conversations involving top relievers Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger as well as various starters. The one name that clearly is not in play is staff ace Chris Archer.
  • The Cubs have remained in “constant contact” with the Rays, reports Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (audio link). It’s previously been suggested that Chicago could have interest in Alex Cobb, but Bowden hints that Jake Odorizzi could make a nice fit for Chicago in a deal. The hang-up, though, is that the Cubs are trying to swing a deal without giving up Jorge Soler, Javier Baez, or other major league pieces.

Cafardo’s Latest: Gallardo, Dunn, Gordon, Maeda, Rays, Hill

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Nick Cafardo shares his Cooperstown ballot and some hot stove items in his latest column for the Boston Globe…

  • Alan Nero, Yovani Gallardo’s agent, said he had talked with teams over the last week but nothing has moved forward with his client’s situation.  The Royals, Astros and Orioles were all linked to Gallardo two weeks ago, and since those teams are also finalists for Scott Kazmir’s services, Cafardo figures the two pitchers have somewhat shared markets at the moment.
  • It’s looking as if the Marlins may trade lefty Mike Dunn, as Miami has received interest in the reliever.  Dunn posted a 4.50 ERA, 10.8 K/9 and 2.24 K/BB rate over 54 innings in 2015, a bit of a down year following very good seasons in 2013-14.  ERA indicators and advanced metrics, however, don’t show too much of a difference between Dunn in 2014 and 2015 aside from an increase in home run rate (6% to 11.1%) and walk rate (3.47 to 4.83).  Dunn battled severe control problems early in his career, and Cafardo says that Dunn’s rise in walk rate has scared a few teams away.  The southpaw is entering the last year of a two-year extension that will pay him $3.45MM in 2016.
  • Alex Gordon “prefers to stay in Kansas City, though that dream may be fading.”  According to reports earlier in the week, the Royals offered Gordon a four-year deal worth around $12MM-$13MM per season, and Gordon’s agents told the club that it has “no chance” of re-signing him at the moment.
  • The Dodgers are seen as the favorites for Kenta Maeda given their need for pitching, though Cafardo also says L.A. is looking at trading for Jake Odorizzi “and/or” Alex Cobb from the Rays.  Odorizzi has already been linked to the Dodgers in rumors and I would have to think that Los Angeles would just target one Rays pitcher since the prospect cost for both would be overwhelming (even if Cobb will miss at least half of 2016 recovering from Tommy John surgery).
  • Rich Hill tells Cafardo that the Athletics’ “immediate” and persistent interest, pitcher-friendly O.co Coliseum and the presence of pitching coach Curt Young (Hill’s former pitching coach in Boston) all factored into his decision to sign a one-year, $6MM contract with Oakland.  Hill also noted that the A’s are “giving me a chance to make those 32 starts,” and according to Yahoo’s Jeff Passan at the time of the signing, Hill turned down a larger offer from another team due to Oakland’s promise of a regular rotation spot.

Rays, Cubs Discussing Trade Involving Javier Baez

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9:05pm: The Cubs may be targeting Alex Cobb, Topkin tweets. The outstanding righty had his UCL replaced back in May and will obviously miss a good portion of the coming season. But he projects to earn just $4MM next year (an exact match for his 2015 salary) and would come with another cheap season of control thereafter.

5:45pm: Tampa Bay’s target in talks with Chicago is “definitely Baez,” Topkin tweets. He adds that the club is chatting with several other teams on deals at the moment.

Meanwhile, ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers tweets that Moore and Cobb appear to be more likely possibilities for the Cubs to pursue than is Archer, which is hardly surprising. He also says that, while relievers are “in play” in talks, the Cubs would “have to get a starter back.”

2:22am: The Cubs and Rays are in discussions about a deal that would send Javier Baez to Tampa in exchange for pitching, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.  Topkin isn’t sure how developed the talks are, or if a trade is likely to happen.  On Sunday, 670TheScore.com’s Bruce Levine reported that Chicago and Tampa had been in talks.

Chicago has been looking for both starting pitching and bullpen help this offseason, and the Rays are a potential fit in either department.  On the relief side, Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger have drawn widespread interest from several teams looking to reinforce the back end of their bullpen, and the Cubs fit that description according to recent reports.

Tampa Bay has already dealt Nathan Karns to the Mariners but it’s possible the club could continue to trade from its starting pitching reserves.  One would think that it would take one of the Rays’ more established arms (Jake Odorizzi, Matt Moore, Drew Smyly or possibly Erasmo Ramirez) to land a major power prospect like Baez, and it’s also probably safe to assume that Chris Archer continues to be unavailable in trade talks.

Baez was the ninth overall pick of the 2011 draft and a consensus top-seven prospect heading into the 2014 season.  He has yet to make an impact in his brief time at the MLB level, however, as Baez has posted a .201/.252/.346 slash line and 10 homers in 309 career plate appearances, with a whopping 119 strikeouts.  He struck out at a near-record rate in 2014, so while he improved in that department in 2015, Baez almost had nowhere to go but up.  That propensity for swinging and missing has also been apparent at the minor league level (426 K’s in 1678 PA) but Baez has also crushed minor league pitching to the tune of an .888 OPS and 89 homers.

Baez was drafted as a shortstop but has seen time at second and third as the Cubs have tried to find him a position amidst their other top youngsters (Kris Bryant and Addison Russell) and Starlin Castro.  With the Rays, Evan Longoria is locked into third and Logan Forsythe emerged at second last year, so Baez’s best fit is likely back at short, though they did just get Brad Miller from Seattle.  Baez could also see some time at DH or possibly even first, even how the Rays are traditionally flexible position-wise.

Injury Notes: Bailey, Cobb, Moore, Holland, Wieters, Iwakuma, Hanley

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As expected, Reds starter Homer Bailey underwent Tommy John surgery today, as MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports. Though his previously-repaired flexor mass tendon apepared in good shape, Bailey’s UCL was determined to be completely torn, leaving little in the way of options to avoid surgery.

  • Likewise, Rays righty Alex Cobb was found to have a fully torn UCL, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports, meaning he too was virtually assured to require a TJ procedure. Cobb says the best-case scenario would have him return late in 2016. Fellow Tampa hurler Matt Moore has continued to build his way back from his own UCL replacement, with MLB.com’s Bill Chastain reporting that Moore was able to throw all of his pitches in a live BP session. Moore says he is targeting a mid-June return to the big league bump.
  • Though his shoulder has shown some evidence of progress, Rangers lefty Derek Holland will wait an additional two weeks before he begins throwing, as Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram tweets. Though Texas has enjoyed a somewhat surprising contribution from its starting staff (3.71 ERA, 9th in baseball), peripherals suggest that some regression is forthcoming. Regardless, Holland’s health is critical to the club, both this year and — perhaps even more so — in the future.
  • Orioles catcher Matt Wieters is set to catch seven innings tomorrow as he continues to work fully back from Tommy John surgery, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. Wieters’ ability to return to health and productivity will go a long way toward determining his free agent earning power next winter, of course. It will also tell on Baltimore’s ability to compete for a postseason slot, though replacement Caleb Joseph has been a revelation.
  • The Mariners appear unlikely to see righty Hisashi Iwakuma return until early June, at the soonest, per Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. Manager Lloyd McClendon says that Iwakuma is “probably still two to three weeks from going out [on a rehab assignment]” and will then need to throw a few outings before making it back to the big leagues. As with Wieters, Iwakuma needs to get healthy and show that he can continue to be effective in order to bolster his open market case. The scuffling Mariners, meanwhile, are not only firmly in need of his services, but also must assess whether they will be in the market for rotation help over the summer.
  • Red Sox outfielder Hanley Ramirez is not likely to need a DL stint for his left shoulder sprain, manager John Farrell tells Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe (Twitter link). Boston seems to have dodged a bullet with the injury situation, as the club can ill afford an extended absence from the player who has paced the club in hitting thus far.

Alex Cobb To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Rays right-hander Alex Cobb announced to reporters that he will undergo Tommy John surgery to repair the torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, according to MLB.com’s Bill Chastain (on Twitter). Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that Cobb learned yesterday that he has a full tear of the ligament, whereas previous tests had indicated it was only a partial tear.

Cobb will be lost for the remainder of the 2015 season and could be sidelined into June or July of the 2016 season. Cobb’s teammate, Matt Moore, underwent Tommy John on April 22 last year and is expected to return to the Rays at some point in June.

Over the past two seasons, the 27-year-old Cobb has looked the part of a front-line starter when healthy enough to take the hill. He’s worked to a 2.82 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 56 percent ground-ball rate in 309 2/3 innings. He has also, however, missed time with a concussion and an oblique injury, and this season he opened the year on the disabled list due to what was originally termed right forearm tendinitis.

Given his previous level of performance, the loss of Cobb is a crushing reality for a Rays club that hoped to have its top pitcher return to bolster a rotation that has been effective as a whole but has seen some struggles at the back end. Drew Smyly was recently activated from the disabled list to join the starting five, which should help provide some stability. Smyly will now join Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Nate Karns and Alex Colome as the team awaits Moore’s return.

As for Cobb, he’ll be placed on the 15-day DL and, when the team needs a 40-man spot, the 60-day disabled list. He’ll receive Major League service time while injured and continue earning his $4MM salary as he rehabs. Because he didn’t throw a pitch in 2015, Cobb will likely be in line for a very similar, if not identical salary in arbitration this winter. That will mark his second time through the arb process and leave the Rays with roughly one-and-a-half healthy seasons of Cobb, barring any setbacks in his recovery, before he is eligible for free agency at the conclusion of the 2017 season.

Injury Notes: Cobb, Magill, Bailey, Ottavino

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Here’s the latest on some injury situations around the game, including several pitchers who will face 12-16 months of recovery time from Tommy John surgery…

  • Alex Cobb discussed his injury situation with reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) and the Rays righty admitted that he is “still going back and forth on what to do.”  Cobb received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his right elbow and will wait a few weeks before testing, though if the procedure doesn’t take, Cobb will have to undergo TJ surgery.  If he waits and has to get the surgery anyway, however, Cobb risks missing all of 2016, whereas if he gets the surgery now, he believes he’ll be able to return late next season.
  • Right-hander Matt Magill will undergo Tommy John surgery tomorrow, according to the Reds’ official Twitter feed.  Magill’s Major League career consists of six starts for the Dodgers in 2013 that saw him post a 6.51 ERA, 26 strikeouts and 28 walks over 27 2/3 innings.  A 31st-round pick for the Dodgers in the 2008 draft, Magill owns a 3.99 ERA, 8.9 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 over 700 2/3 minor league innings.  He was traded from Los Angeles to Cincinnati in December in exchange for outfielder Chris Heisey.
  • From that same Reds tweet, Homer Bailey will also undergo his own Tommy John surgery tomorrow.
  • Rockies closer Adam Ottavino underwent Tommy John surgery this morning, according to Nick Groke of the Denver Post.  Ottavino was going to get a second opinion to be sure, yet was fully expecting to get the operation to repair his partially torn UCL.

Alex Cobb Has Partially Torn Ligament In Elbow

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Rays right-hander Alex Cobb’s 2015 season is in jeopardy, as is much of his 2016 season, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that an MRI has revealed a partially torn ligament in his right elbow. For the time being, Cobb will rest and undergo treatment in an attempt to pitch through the injury, but he’ll be facing Tommy John surgery if that route proves unsuccessful.

Cobb, 27, has already received a platelet-rich plasma injection in the elbow as part of a visit with Dr. James Andrews. President of baseball operations Matt Silverman told Topkin earlier that the team was in “wait and see” mode and that speculation regarding surgery was premature, though that appears to have been before Topkin learned of the MRI results.

Over the past two seasons, Cobb has looked the part of a front-line starter when healthy enough to take the hill. He’s worked to a 2.82 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 56 percent ground-ball rate in 309 2/3 innings. He has also, however, missed time with a concussion and an oblique injury, and this season he opened the year on the disabled list due to what was originally termed right forearm tendinitis.

Losing Cobb would be a significant blow to a second-place Rays team that has been anxiously awaiting his return to the rotation. However, Tampa successfully weathered the storm after losing Matt Moore to Tommy John surgery last year and trading ace David Price, as their new-look rotation currently features Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Nate Karns and Alex Colome.

Moore is expected to rejoin the club sometime in June or July, and there are other depth options on the 40-man roster including Erasmo Ramirez and Matt Andriese. Another potential depth option, righty Burch Smith (acquired in the Wil Myers trade) is already lost for the year due to Tommy John surgery, however, and Ramirez’s struggles over the past year-plus have been extreme. Further injuries in the rotation, then, could lead to some trade consideration this summer, but adding Moore to the current crop of healthy starters would seem enough to carve out a competitive rotation, even if Cobb is unfortunately lost for the next year.

AL Notes: Rosario, Cobb, Blue Jays, White Sox

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Yesterday, the Twins promoted outfielder Eddie Rosario from Triple-A Rochester, with Oswaldo Arcia headed to the disabled list due to a right hip flexor strain. (TwinsDaily.com’s Seth Stohs first tweeted word of Rosario’s promotion.) In Rosario, the Twins are recalling a former fourth-round pick that ranked in the organization’s Top 10 prospects per Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com and ESPN’s Keith Law. Rosario, in fact, was considered a Top 100 prospect by B-Pro heading into the 2014 season, but he served a suspension for a drug of abuse and didn’t hit much in his return to Double-A. After a promising stint in the Arizona Fall League this past season, Rosario is off to a slow start in Triple-A, but he still, interestingly, gets the call over Aaron Hicks. The 25-year-old Hicks has spent parts of the past two seasons with the Twins in an attempt to establish himself as their everyday center fielder, but the former first-round pick and top 30 prospect has looked overmatched in the Majors. However, he’s hitting quite well to open the year in Triple-A, making it somewhat surprising to seem him passed over. It may only be a short-term look, though I’d think that given Jordan Schafer’s struggles, there’s at least a chance for Rosario to impress enough to stick on the roster once Arcia is healthy.

Here are some more notes from the American League…

  • The Rays are increasingly concerned with righty Alex Cobb after he suffered a setback this weekend, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Cobb, 27, had started to throw again after suffering a forearm strain this spring. Now, per Topkin, Cobb will be shut down for several days and could eventually be a candidate for platelet-rich plasma treatment or even surgery. Cobb has contributed 309 2/3 innings of 2.82 ERA pitching over the last two seasons, making his fate critical to the team’s hopes this year.
  • Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos says he does not expect any significant trade activity until after the draft, as Ben Nicholson-Smith reports on Twitter. That is obviously the usual course of events, in spite of some discussion that this year could see earlier activity. Toronto is looking up in a tightly-packed AL East after a rough start to the year from its pitching staff. While an early move holds some facial appeal, however, a significant addition would likely require a premium return.
  • It is indeed early, but not too early for the White Sox to begin planning for a summer sale, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs opines. Chicago rode into the year on a wave of optimism, even if projection systems never bought the team as an obvious playoff club, but is off to a dreadful start. With multiple holes on the big league roster, says Cameron, GM Rick Hahn should be ready to be nimble in cashing in assets. In particular, Cameron suggests that marketing free agent-to-be Jeff Samardzija before other appealing arms join the market could be the best way to maximize his value.
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