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Alek Thomas

Diamondbacks Option Alek Thomas

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The Diamondbacks announced that outfielder Jake McCarthy was reinstated from the bereavement list. In a corresponding move, fellow outfielder Alek Thomas was optioned to Triple-A Reno.

Thomas, 22, was initially promoted to the big leagues in May while considered one of the top prospects in the sport at the time. Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs all had him in the top 40 on their respective lists of the best youngsters around the league. Unfortunately, he hasn’t hit the ground running in his first shot at the big leagues, producing a batting line of .231/.275/.344 through his first 113 games for a wRC+ of 71, or 29% below league average.

He’s managed to keep the strikeouts down to a rate of 18%, which is a few ticks below the 22.3% league average this year. However, he’s also walked at a below-average 5.4% rate and isn’t doing much damage when he makes contact. His .263 batting average on balls in play could involve some bad luck, but he’s also in just the 21st percentile in terms of hard hit percentage, the 12th percentile for barrel rate and 20th in average exit velocity. He is in the 75th percentile in terms of max exit velocity, which suggests he can do damage when he does square the ball up. He’s just not doing it very often so far.

It’s not all doom and gloom, as Thomas has a solid floor because of his speed and defense. He has 94th percentile sprint speed and is in the 92nd percentile in terms of Outs Above Average. If the bat can take a step forward and start to resemble his production in the minor leagues, he would become an incredibly valuable and well-rounded player.

The Diamondbacks are flush with outfielders, which is seemingly what has nudged Thomas out of the picture for now. Daulton Varsho has seemingly made a permanent move from catching to the outfield, according to reporting from earlier this month. He joins an outfield mix that includes Thomas, McCarthy, Stone Garrett, Jordan Luplow and Corbin Carroll. Like Thomas, Carroll was a highly-touted prospect who made his debut this year, but with much more success. Through 24 games, Carroll is hitting .256/.318/.474 for a wRC+ of 119. With Varsho, Garrett and McCarthy all also hitting well, the club has a bevy of outfield options at its disposal at the moment.

The Diamondbacks are well out of contention with just over a week left in the regular season, meaning the remaining games will primarily be for evaluating players and gathering information for the future. In that context, it’s noteworthy that Thomas has been squeezed out here. During the offseason, there figures to be plenty of speculation about the club using its strong outfield depth to upgrade other parts of the roster, with varying opinions about who is most likely to be moved. This demotion certainly doesn’t mean Thomas has been erased from the team’s plans, as he’s still only 22 years old and prospects don’t always develop in a linear fashion. Though it does perhaps indicate that some less-hyped outfielders like McCarthy and Garrett have played well enough to earn longer looks and complicate the picture. McCarthy is hitting .288/.352/.446 this year for a 124 wRC+ in 91 games. Garrett has gotten into just 22 games but has hit .318/.352/.621 in that time for a wRC+ of 165.

From a service time perspective, this won’t have an immediate impact on Thomas. He was promoted a month after Opening Day and was always going to come up short of one year of service time in 2022. This demotion, assuming he doesn’t return, will only cost him about ten days from his tally. (Optional assignments for position players come with a ten-day minimum but an exception is made if another player is going on the injured list.) Though if Thomas continues to be outside the team’s immediate outfield plans, future optional assignments could push back his free agency or arbitration eligibility.

The D-backs’ Promising Outfield Gives Them Plenty Of Offseason Flexibility

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Diamondbacks catcher/outfielder Daulton Varsho has impressed so much in the outfield this season that his days behind the plate could be drawing to a close, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Varsho tells Piecoro that he’s even surprised himself with how well he’s taken to the outfield.

A former top-100 prospect, the 26-year-old former top prospect has drawn immaculate grades for his outfield defense in 2022, tallying 14 Defensive Runs Saved and, according to Statcast, 13 Outs Above Average and 12 Runs Above Average. Those are cumulative totals, so it’s worth noting that Varsho has also spent 175 innings behind the plate this year; had he been a full-time outfielder, those defensive marks would’ve likely been even more eye-catching.

Varsho, who says it’s a personal goal of his to win a Gold Glove, added that he’s not content with his current level of outfield play, citing a few near-catches he missed (on what would’ve been highlight-reel efforts). Varsho labeled himself a perfectionist and spoke of small, incremental gains he could still make in his defensive game — “…[I]f I can add an extra inch by not having to look at the wall and understanding what I can do to get better…” — as part of his hopeful evolution.

Of course, Varsho is far more than just a strong glove in the outfield. He’s built on a solid showing at the plate last summer and turned in a .243/.311/.457 batting line this season, swatting 23 home runs, 20 doubles and three triples while chipping in eight stolen bases (albeit in 14 attempts). It’s a solid, well-round skill set that could leave him as a fixture in center or right field, depending on how the remainder of the Diamondbacks’ young outfield pans out.

Corbin Carroll, regarded as one of the sport’s top prospects — if not the top prospect — prior to his promotion earlier this month, gives Arizona a potential high-impact talent to pair with Varsho in the long term. He’s followed up a combined .307/.425/.611 batting line in the minors this year with a .281/.324/.469 showing through his first eight big league games and now has 24 home runs and 31 steals between the minors and big leagues combined.

Add in the likes of Alek Thomas, himself a top-100 prospect prior to this season’s debut, and 25-year-old Jake McCarthy, who has surpassed all expectations with a strong debut campaign of his own, and the outfield group in Phoenix looks particularly promising. The 22-year-old Thomas has cooled after a solid start and is batting .249/.295/.373 on the season but has turned in plus defensive marks in center. McCarthy, meanwhile, is batting .288/.348/.455 with seven homers, 14 doubles, two triples and a 15-for-16 showing in stolen bases.

It’s a talented, albeit entirely left-handed, group of outfielders around which to build. That there are four players for three spots might make it tempting to continue deploying Varsho behind the dish at times, but his elite play in the outfield would be lost in that scenario. Manager Torey Lovullo told Piecoro that there are no plans for Varsho to start behind the plate for the remainder of the season, further pointing to a long-term move away from the position.

It’s a bit early to label the quartet of lefty-hitting outfielders a true “surplus.” Thomas’ offense has been below average, and it’s fair to wonder whether McCarthy can sustain production that’s been bolstered by a .347 average on balls in play — particularly when he’s making hard contact at a below-average clip. Statcast pegs his “expected” batting average and slugging percentage at .259 and .367 — both well shy of his current marks. Carroll is a top-five prospect in baseball, but he also just turned 22 in late August, so it’s not a given that he’ll immediately break out into stardom.

Still, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wonders about the possibility of the Diamondbacks utilizing this group of outfielders to bolster the rotation over the winter. There are plenty of teams with outfield needs who’d love to acquire a controllable long-term player to step right onto the 2023 roster.  Varsho is controlled through 2026, McCarthy through 2027 and both Thomas and Carroll through at least 2028. Speculating a bit, the Marlins are known to still be looking for their center fielder of the future and have plenty of pitching to dangle in talks with the D-backs. Arizona and Miami previously lined up on a Zac Gallen-for-Jazz Chisholm swap that has benefited both clubs, though the Marlins’ front office has turned over a good bit since that time.

Trading from that quartet of outfielders would thin out the Diamondbacks’ outfield depth, quite likely in a significant way, but they do have some other options on the 40-man roster, including the right-handed-hitting Stone Garrett, who’s out to a blistering MLB debut himself after a nice showing in Triple-A. The free-agent market would also present several affordable, short-term options to plug into the outfield mix, and finding a useful complementary outfielder on the open market is quite a bit easier than finding the type of potentially impact arm that a trade of someone like Thomas could bring.

However general manager Mike Hazen and his staff choose to proceed this winter, the play of the team’s young outfielders will give them plenty of options. And with a lot clicking elsewhere on the roster — Arizona is 26-19 since the All-Star break, a .578 winning percentage — the D-backs could be a shrewd offseason move or two away from reasserting themselves in the National League West more quickly than most would anticipate.

Diamondbacks Open To Trading From Outfield Depth

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The Diamondbacks enter play Thursday with a 37-45 record, six games back of the Cardinals and Phillies for the National League’s final playoff spot. Barring an unexpected strong run over the next three and a half weeks, they seem likely to move shorter-term players for future value for a third consecutive season.

That’ll lead to a fair bit of speculation about veteran trade candidates like Zach Davies and Ian Kennedy, but Arizona could find themselves in position to move a player with a bit more club control in recognition of a mounting outfield surplus. The D-Backs have gotten encouraging early-career showings from Daulton Varsho and Alek Thomas, who look to be blossoming into members of the club’s next long-term core. They’ll be joined by Corbin Carroll, one of the sport’s top overall prospects, in the not too distant future. With that trio reaching or nearing the majors and warranting regular playing time, some of Arizona’s other outfielders could get squeezed out of the mix.

General manager Mike Hazen acknowledged as much, telling Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic the club is “open to discussing” trades involving some of the outfielders on the roster. Arizona has a few generally unproven but affordable depth options. Jake McCarthy and Pavin Smith are former solidly-regarded prospects who have reached the majors over the past couple years. Both had seen their stocks drop in the eyes of most evaluators by the time they reached the big leagues, and neither has hit especially well in limited MLB time to date. Cooper Hummel, whom Arizona acquired from the Brewers in last summer’s Eduardo Escobar trade, doesn’t have much of a prospect pedigree but owns a .316/.439/.539 line in a bit more than 400 career Triple-A plate appearances.

With each still in their mid-20’s and more than a season away from arbitration-eligibility, it’s easy to envision teams having some amount of interest in any or all of that group. (The chances of a Smith trade were dealt a blow when he fractured his right wrist in a minor league game over the weekend). Certainly, none of that trio would bring back a massive return. As Piecoro notes, all three are generally viewed by evaluators as fourth or fifth outfield types at this stage of their careers. Each could hold a bit more value and find an easier path to long-term playing time with another team that doesn’t have as much of a glut of upper minors options as the D-Backs do, however. Piecoro suggests Arizona could look to balance the organization by dealing one or more for an infield or pitching prospect of interest.

There’d of course be plenty more calls if the D-Backs were willing to make any of Varsho, Thomas or Carroll available. That’s less likely, as Hazen expressed a desire to build a core for the fanbase to “latch onto.” He’s spoken in past deadlines about “anchoring” around certain players, culminating in a Spring Training extension for Ketel Marte and a reluctance to part with staff ace Zac Gallen. While he didn’t explicitly rule out dealing anyone on the roster, Hazen downplayed the possibility of parting with a potential core piece. “Constantly rolling out young players for the next young player, I don’t really foresee that being the strategy we’re going to take,” Hazen told Piecoro. “You never want to be close-minded to the things that could happen, but that wouldn’t be a scenario I would chase.”

In addition to the unproven but controllable collection of outfielders, the D-Backs have a pair of veteran role players who could draw some interest from 2022 contenders. Jordan Luplow, acquired from the Rays over the offseason, isn’t having a great season overall but he’s popped seven home runs in 68 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. He’s a career .237/.352/.545 hitter against southpaws and could hold some appeal as a right-handed platoon corner outfield option. Luplow is playing this season on a $1.4MM salary and remains controllable via arbitration through 2024.

David Peralta, meanwhile, has spent all nine of his MLB seasons with the D-Backs. After a few down years offensively, he’s rebounded to post a solid .250/.318/.470 line with 11 longballs in 258 plate appearances. Peralta has seen a dramatic uptick in both his fly-ball rate and hard contact percentage. The new approach has come with a career-high 12.7% swinging strike rate, but the veteran is hitting for more power than he has since a 30-homer 2018 campaign.

Peralta turns 35 years old in August, and he’s playing this season on a $7.5MM salary (a bit less than half of which is still to be paid out). Between his well-regarded clubhouse presence and solid offensive showing, contenders looking for left-handed outfield help but unwilling to meet the Royals’ asking price on Andrew Benintendi could view Peralta as a decent fallback option. At his age and with the aforementioned stockpile of younger options in Arizona, a trade seems likelier than another contract extension.

In a chat with Piecoro earlier this week, Peralta acknowledged that his run with the franchise could be nearing its end. “Like I always say — and I’m not going to get tired of saying it — I want to stay in this organization,” he said. “But I know that on the other side it’s a business, right? You have to think of it that way. If something happens, it’ll hurt, because this is the only organization I know. But if it happens, I’ll just have to take it and move forward.”

Peralta noted that a trade would afford him the opportunity to compete for a playoff spot this season, but he indicated his preference would be to stick with Arizona for the long haul. After joking he could start to play worse to reduce his own trade value and ensure he finishes out the season with the D-Backs, Peralta more seriously indicated he’s willing to stay with the club beyond this year. “It depends on what the Diamondbacks are going to do, what their goals are,” Peralta said about the possibility of re-signing. “I’m always going to be open to playing here. I would love to stay here for the rest of my career. It would mean a lot to me. But we’ll see what’s going to happen.“

Diamondbacks To Promote Alek Thomas

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The Diamondbacks are bringing one of baseball’s most highly-ranked prospects, as Jeff Passan of ESPN reports they are promoting outfielder Alek Thomas. The club had an opening on the 40-man roster, meaning no corresponding move will be necessary in that regard. To make room on the active roster, catcher Carson Kelly was placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to May 5, with a strained left oblique.

Thomas was selected by the D-Backs in the second round of the 2018 draft out of Mount Carmel High School in Chicago. Just 18 years old at the time, he played 56 rookie ball games that year, 28 each on two different teams, hitting .333/.395/.463, wRC+ of 133, with a walk rate of 8.9% and strikeout rate of just 13.7%.

In 2019, he got bumped up to A-ball, playing 91 games and hitting .312/.393/.479. His walk and strikeout rates were 10.7% and 17.9%, culminating in a 153 wRC+. He got promoted to High-A that year and struggled a bit, which isn’t terribly surprising given that he was more than three years younger than the average age for that level and it was also a small sample of just 23 games.

The pandemic wiped out the 2020 season but didn’t slow Thomas down at all. In 2021, he started his season in Double-A and played 72 games there, hitting ten home runs and stealing eight bases. Along with a walk rate of 11.2% and strikeout rate of 19.8%, he hit .283/.374/.507 for a wRC+ of 134. He got promoted to Triple-A and took his game up another notch. Despite his walk and strikeout rates slipping to 9% and 20.5%, he hit eight home runs in just 34 games, adding five steals, finishing with a line of .369/.434/.658, wRC+ of 168. Thomas is now considered one of the top prospects in the game, coming into this season with Baseball America ranking him #32, MLB Pipeline #40 and FanGraphs #23.

Thomas, who turned 22 years old just over a week ago, is off to a fine start to this year. Although not quite as blistering as his first taste of Triple-A, he’s hitting a solid .277/.362/.495, wRC+ of 117. It’s possible that Thomas is being held back by some bad luck, as he’s lowered his strikeout rate to 13.8% this year, increased his walk rate to 11.2%, but has just a .293 batting average on balls in play, well below his numbers in previous seasons.

He’s played primarily in center field so far this year, making 22 starts there along with a couple in right. Although some evaluators think he may need to move into a corner in the long run, it’s possible the team lets him stick in center field at first to see how he fares. Daulton Varsho has taken most of the starts in center field so far this year. However, he has the unusual distinction of being both a center fielder and a catcher. With Kelly’s placement on the injured list, it seems Varsho might start spending more time behind the dish with Thomas taking over the center field duties. Jose Herrera is the only other catcher on either the active roster or the 40-man roster. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for Kelly’s return.

After a brutal 52-110 finish last year, the Snakes are off to an encouraging start this year, currently sitting on a 14-14 record. Despite hovering at the .500 level, they’re still in last place in a very competitive NL West, but the better record has to feel good for those in the organization. Thomas is one of many exciting prospects that give the club hope of better results this year and in the years to come. He is one of five D-Backs on the Top 100 prospect lists of both Baseball America and FanGraphs.

Who’s Blocking Alek Thomas?

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In the second round of the 2018 MLB draft, the Diamondbacks selected Alek Thomas, an outfielder from Mount Carmel High School in Chicago. Just 18 years old at the time, Thomas played 56 rookie ball games that year, 28 each on two different teams, hitting .333/.395/.463, wRC+ of 133, with a walk rate of 8.9% and strikeout rate of just 13.7%.

In 2019, he got bumped up to A-ball, playing 91 games and hitting .312/.393/.479. His walk and strikeout rates were 10.7% and 17.9%, culminating in a 153 wRC+. He got promoted to High-A that year and struggled a bit, which isn’t terribly surprising given that he was more than three years younger than the average age for that level. But it was also a small sample of just 23 games.

The pandemic wiped out the 2020 season but didn’t slow Thomas down at all. In 2021, he started his season in Double-A and played 72 games there, hitting ten home runs and stealing eight bases. Along with a walk rate of 11.2% and strikeout rate of 19.8%, he hit .283/.374/.507 for a wRC+ of 134. He got promoted to Triple-A and took his game up another notch. Despite his walk and strikeout rates slipping to 9% and 20.5%, he hit eight home runs in just 34 games, adding five steals, finishing with a line of .369/.434/.658, wRC+ of 168. Thomas is now considered one of the top prospects in the game, with Baseball America ranking him #32, MLB Pipeline #40 and FanGraphs #23.

Thomas, 22 years old in April, has little left to prove in the minors, having now shown himself capable of playing well at the top parts of the D-Backs’ system. One thing standing in his way is the fact that he’s not on the team’s 40-man roster yet, since he’s still a year away from Rule 5 eligibility. Furthermore, as with all top prospects nearing MLB readiness at this time of year, there’s the possibility that they won’t get promoted until they are held back long enough for the club to gain an extra year of control over them. Though there’s also the possibility that the service time rules change, as they are currently being negotiated as part of the next CBA.

Thomas has played all three outfield positions throughout his minor league career, but more in center than the corners. FanGraphs, however, sees him as more of a left fielder in the long term. Even with that move to a less-demanding defensive position, they still view him as a future above-average regular.

At the big league level, the outfield picture for the Diamondbacks is quite murky at the moment. David Peralta is likely to continue as the team’s primarily left fielder, though this is the final year of his extension and he turns 35 in August. He also had a mediocre season at the plate last season, putting up a wRC+ of just 93, his lowest in years. Taking all that into consideration, he might not be a part of the long-term picture.

The attempts to turn Ketel Marte into a center fielder didn’t really work out and he seems poised to return to full-time second base work going forward. Daulton Varsho is a baseball oddity, capable of switching between outfield and catching duties. He was behind the plate for 41 games last year but also saw time on the grass in 54 contests. He hasn’t fully established himself as an MLB hitter just yet, but is just 25 years old and has an excellent minor league track record. Pavin Smith is in a similar position to Varsho, hitting just below league average in his MLB time thus far. But he just turned 26 and has carried himself well in the minors. Josh VanMeter is in the picture but mostly as a bench/utility option. Jordan Luplow came over from the Rays in a trade just before the lockout. He’s likely to be primarily used in a platoon capacity, given his excellent career numbers against lefties and the fact that Peralta, Varsho and Smith all hit from the left side. Thomas is also a lefty, but actually hit southpaws better than righties last year. (1.073 OPS versus lefties and .909 against righties.) Cooper Hummel was added to the 40-man roster in November but has yet to make his MLB debut. Jake McCarthy and Stuart Fairchild are also on the roster, but each has less than 25 games of MLB experience. There’s also another highly-touted outfield prospect in Corbin Carroll, though he’s only reached High-A so far.

In short, there are a lot of options written in pencil, but none in ink. The Diamondbacks had a nightmare season in 2021, going 52-110, tied with the Orioles for the worst record in the majors. They share a division with strong teams like the Dodgers and Giants. The Padres have a decent chance of being much better this year than last. The Rockies plan on spending some money and competing this year. Arizona will need a lot of things to go right if they’re going to bridge the gap with their competitors, including Thomas, and a few of these other names, cementing themselves as mainstays in the outfield.

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