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Alek Thomas

Diamondbacks Option Alek Thomas

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The Diamondbacks announced today that they have optioned outfielder Alek Thomas to Triple-A Reno, recalling right-hander Luis Frías in a corresponding move.

Thomas, 23, has been one of the club’s most notable prospects in recent years. He was selected in the second round of the 2018 draft and featured on Baseball America’s top 100 list in three straight years starting in 2020, with his speed and defense drawing particularly high praise.

He’s now been in the majors for roughly a full season of work, getting into 152 games between last year and this year. The speed and defense parts of his game have been apparent, with Statcast pegging his sprint speed in the 89th percentile among qualified position players this year, though he’s stolen just seven bases in 11 attempts in his career thus far. In terms of his glovework, he’s already accrued nine Defensive Runs Saved and seven Outs Above Average in center field in his short career, as well as earning a grade of 3.7 from Ultimate Zone Rating.

The problem has been his work at the plate. Though Thomas hit very well in the minors, he hasn’t produced much in his 534 major league plate appearances thus far. He has 10 home runs but has walked in just 5.6% of his trips to the plate and has slashed .223/.270/.340 for a wRC+ of 68. That includes a paltry .195/.252/.327 line here in 2023. A career .257 batting average on balls in play likely suggests there’s a bit of bad luck in there, but it’s been a fairly uninspiring showing overall.

The Diamondbacks went into the winter with a surplus of young outfielders, including Thomas, Corbin Carroll, Jake McCarthy and Daulton Varsho. They felt good enough about the group that they were frequently rumored to be discussing those players in trades, eventually sending Varsho to the Blue Jays for Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. However, Thomas is now the second member of that group to wind up back in the minors after posting disappointing results, as McCarthy was sent down last month.

In addition to his own struggles, the demotion of Thomas seems to have been spurred by the ascendance of Dominic Fletcher, who was promoted a few weeks ago and has hit .377/.400/.604 in his first 15 games. He won’t sustain a .429 BABIP forever but it seems the D’Backs are riding the hot hand and will give Fletcher a chance to stretch his results over a longer sample of playing time. He figures to be the regular center fielder for now, flanked by Gurriel and Carroll with Pavin Smith in the fourth outfielder slot.

Thomas, meanwhile, will head to Reno and try to get back into a groove at the plate. From a service time perspective, he came into this season with 151 days and has already gone over the one-year mark, which is 172 days. Assuming he’s recalled at some point this season, today’s option won’t affect his free agency trajectory but it could impact his ability to reach arbitration after 2024 as a Super Two player, depending on the eventual length of time between now and his next recall.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Yankees Have Discussed Outfield Trades With Twins, Diamondbacks

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The Yankees have had trade discussions with the Twins and Diamondbacks about their available outfielders, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post.

The Yankees already have two of their outfield positions accounted for, with Harrison Bader in center and Aaron Judge in right. There’s less certainty in left field, however, with Andrew Benintendi having departed via free agency. That leaves Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Cabrera as the remaining in-house options. Hicks is now 33 years old and has hit a combined .211/.322/.317 over the past two seasons. For a team in win-now mode like the Yankees, it’s understandable that they don’t want to rely on him as an everyday option. Cabrera just made his major league debut and only has 44 games under his belt. He fared well in that time but is a natural infielder who was learning outfield on the fly, meaning he’s probably best utilized as a utility option as opposed to an everyday player.

The desire for the Yanks to upgrade there is logical, as is their choice of trade partners. It was recently reported that the Twins had received some trade interest on Max Kepler, given that they have a large number of other outfield options on the roster. Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Garlick, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner and Mark Contreras are all options to join Byron Buxton in the Minnesota outfield. Since all of those guys apart from Buxton and Kepler have less than three years of MLB service time, it’s likely that the Twins would have some reluctance to parting with them.

Kepler, on the other hand, has one year remaining on his extension, though with a club option for 2024. He’ll be making a salary of $8.5MM in 2023 with a $1MM buyout on the $10MM option. Kepler has hit right around league average for his career, as his .232/.317/.427 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 101. However, his defense has allowed him to be a consistently productive player. He’s produced at least 2.0 wins above replacement in each of the last six full seasons, according to FanGraphs, in addition to adding 1.1 fWAR in 2020.

As for the Diamondbacks, they are also flush with young outfielders that have reportedly been popular in trade talks. Corbin Carroll is considered one of the best young players in the game and is the least available of the group. But aside from him, the club has Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas, Pavin Smith, Dominic Fletcher and Kyle Lewis in their outfield picture. Aside from Lewis, those guys all hit left-handed, as does Kepler.

A left-handed hitter would be a good fit in the Yankee lineup for a couple of reasons. First of all, the lineup skews right-handed, with Anthony Rizzo the only lefty who is currently likely to get regular playing time. Secondly, the club’s “short porch” in right field traditionally boosts the value of lefty hitters. With the upcoming ban on infield shifts for 2023, a lefty in pinstripes could sell out for hard contact and not have to worry as much about watching liners and grounders get swallowed up by the defense.

As for their preferences for a target, Sherman suggests the Yankees would prefer Varsho to Thomas. That’s not a surprising choice to make, given Varsho’s strong breakout campaign in 2022. He hit 27 home runs and stole 16 bases, producing an overall batting line of .235/.302/.443 for a wRC+ of 106. Varsho was also excellent in the field, with his all-around game leading to a 4.6 fWAR tally on the year. Thomas, meanwhile, hit just .231/.275/.344 in his MLB debut, leading to a wRC+ of 71. He was also strong on defense and was only 22 years old, turning 23 in April. He could still blossom into a great major leaguer but it might still take some time.

Of course, the Yanks won’t be alone in calling these clubs about their attractive outfielders. The previous reporting on the D-Backs had already listed the Brewers, Blue Jays, A’s, Marlins, White Sox and Reds as interested, while Sherman notes that the Mets were on the phone as well. They reportedly were trying to acquire Thomas, but when Arizona asked for prospect Brett Baty, the Mets decided to hang onto him and just sign Nimmo instead. If the Mets found the asking price on Thomas to be too high, it’s fair to wonder if the Yanks would want to pay it or go even higher for Varsho.

If the Yankees don’t find a deal to their liking on the trade market, Benintendi is still a free agent. Though he’s not quite the superstar who seemed to on the way to becoming earlier in his career, he’s still a solid regular. He only hit five home runs in 2022 but was solid in the field and hit .304/.373/.399 for a 122 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR. MLBTR predicted he could land a contract of $54MM over four years, or $13.5MM per season. Sherman reports that Benintendi is looking for a five-year deal and it wouldn’t be a shock to see that come to fruition. Many players have landed much longer deals than expected this offseason, with each of Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Brandon Nimmo getting deals at least three years longer than projected. With Judge and Nimmo off the board, Benintendi is arguably the top remaining outfielder on the open market, which might lead to his market picking up soon.

It’s possible that the competitive balance tax might play a factor in a free agent pursuit, as Sherman opines that the Yankees might prefer to stay under the third CBT tier of $273MM. By crossing that line, the financial penalties would go up and the club would see its top 2023 draft pick pushed back by ten slots. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT number at $266MM, meaning that adding Benintendi or any other notable player could lead to the club attempting to find ways to shed salary, such as trying to trade Hicks or Josh Donaldson.

Big Hype Prospects: Painter, Graceffo, Herrera, Thomas, Wesneski

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My Rule 5 coverage didn’t go to plan. While I successfully tabbed first overall pick Thad Ward, he was the only Rule 5 eligible player chosen of the 25 we evaluated. Ryan Noda was left off due to his age. All the others chosen were not on my radar.

With the Winter Meetings behind us, we’ll swing into full offseason mode here at Big Hype Prospects with a focus on young players affected by recent news.

Five BHPs In The News

Andrew Painter, 19, SP, PHI (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 103.2 IP, 13.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.56 ERA

The Phillies had what can only be described as a successful Winter Meetings, checking off all three boxes on their offseason wishlist. With Taijuan Walker joining the rotation, the club reportedly intends to leave the fifth slot as a battle between Bailey Falter and their stable of prospects. Though he’s younger than Mick Abel, Griff McGarry, and other candidates, Painter is under consideration for an early-season rotation role. He turns 20 shortly after Opening Day. While Falter is the odds-on favorite for the fifth slot, that assumes no preseason injuries to their planned rotation.

Painter carried an unusually large workload for a teenager including two late-season outings of 26 or more batters faced. He made short work of three minor league levels. He gives every appearance of Major League readiness, though a stint in Triple-A might prove beneficial.

Gordon Graceffo, 22, SP, STL (AA)
(A+/AA) 139.1 IP, 9.0 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 2.97 ERA

The Cardinals pursuit of a catcher ended with the signing of Willson Contreras. In negotiations with the Athletics for Sean Murphy, Oakland apparently requested Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and Graceffo. The right-hander has an effective four-pitch repertoire coupled with above-average command. While the details differ, this is basically the same starter kit as Zac Gallen – a deep array or weapons with the means to use them all effectively. Graceffo ran into some speed bumps in Double-A, posting a 3.94 ERA with a 5.07 FIP in 18 starts. He’s on pace to debut in late-2023 or at some point in 2024.

Ivan Herrera, 22, C, STL (AAA)
278 PA, 6 HR, 5 SB, .268/.374/.394

Long considered the heir apparent to Yadier Molina, Herrera isn’t quite far enough along in his development for the Cardinals to hand him the keys. He looked overmatched in a tiny 22 plate appearance Major League sample. While the acquisition of Contreras could render him expendable, the Cardinals have resisted trading touted prospects in recent seasons. It’s entirely plausible St. Louis will treat Contreras as an expensive stopgap to be traded if ever Herrera surpasses him. Herrera draws mixed reviews for his defense with most reports considering him below-average but passable. His athleticism suggests he could be a late bloomer behind the dish. Plate discipline and contact skills are his carrying traits as a hitter. Though he’s no slouch in the power department, he doesn’t hold a candle to Contreras’ exit velocities.

Alek Thomas, 22, OF, ARI (MLB)
411 PA, 8 HR, 4 SB, .231/.275/.344

No longer technically a prospect by the prevailing definition, Thomas is nevertheless prospect-aged and sufficiently talented. His Major League debut didn’t go to plan, but he held his own thanks to positive defense and baserunning. Thomas’ batted ball profile is built for generating high-BABIPs and batting averages, but he slumped to a .263 BABIP in the big leagues. Part of his minor league success included plus plate discipline. He was below average in this regard in his debut, a sign he didn’t adjust well to sharp scouting reports.

Arizona’s outfielders will be in-demand all winter long, especially once the remaining quality free agents like Andrew Benintendi and Michael Conforto sign.

Hayden Wesneski, 25, SP, CHC (MLB)
(AAA) 110.1 IP, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.92 ERA

The Cubs signed Jameson Taillon last week and were reportedly among the finalists for Kodai Senga before he signed with the Mets. Their focus on upgrading the rotation could leave Wesneski without an Opening Day role in the Majors. Acquired in the Scott Effross trade, Wesneski finished 2022 with a lovely 33-inning stint with Chicago. He pitched to a 2.18 ERA with a 3.20 FIP. Wesneski wields a five-pitch repertoire of three fastballs, a slider, and a changeup. They bleed together in a way that stymies hitters despite a lack of overpowering stuff. One scout I spoke with believes the Cubs are better suited than the Yankees to get the most from his particular approach. Whether or not Wesneski opens in the rotation, he is an important part of the club’s 2023 plans.

Five More

Ryan Noda, OAK (26): The second overall pick in the Rule 5 draft, Noda is highly likely to slot into the Athletics lineup and never look back. He’s been among the top minor league performers for his entire career. Notably, he has always been old for his levels. He uses discipline as a weapon and has made steady gains in other facets of his game over the years. He even steals bases, though nobody will confuse him for a speedster. Think of him as vaguely similar to a more athletic Dan Vogelbach.

Dominic Fletcher, ARI (25): Though not nearly of the same pedigree as their other in-house options, Fletcher looks the part of a second-division starter or adequate fourth outfielder. He’s slowed to the point that center field is no longer a fit, and his modest power isn’t ideal for a corner outfield role. His batted profile yields high BABIPs, and his discipline improved last season. He could be a draw in trade discussions, and Arizona shouldn’t mind shopping him given their depth.

Keyshawn Askew, TBR (22): True to his name, Askew brings the funk from the left side. Acquired in the Brooks Raley deal, Askew profiles as a likely future reliever who seems destined to flummox hitters for years to come. He throws a sinker and slider out of a quirky sidearm armslot. The Rays love to collect unusual pitchers. There’s yet a chance they keep him stretched out as a starter.

Michael Busch, LAD (25): An accomplished minor league hitter, Busch has slow-burned through the Dodgers system. He’s considered a poor defensive second baseman but might get a chance there nonetheless due to the club’s intention to stay out of Carlos Correa’s market. He hit .266/.343/.480 (102 wRC+) with 21 home runs in 504 Triple-A plate appearances last season.

Jacob Amaya, LAD (24): Amaya is a more defensively able option at second base if Gavin Lux is indeed shifted to shortstop on a full-time basis. After torching Double-A pitching, Amaya was merely decent at Triple-A. He’s shown consistently above-average discipline but there’s often a notable lack of impact when he connects. For a team with Dodgers standards, he looks more like a utility man than a starter. Lesser clubs might happily count him as a regular.

D-Backs’ Outfielders Drawing Widespread Trade Interest

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The Diamondbacks have an interesting stockpile of upper level outfielders from which they’re largely expected to deal. General manager Mike Hazen and his staff have long signaled a willingness to field offers to upgrade other areas of the roster and they’re unsurprisingly drawing attention from a host of teams.

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports roughly 10 clubs have been in touch with Hazen and company regarding at least one of the team’s outfielders. Piecoro lists the Yankees, Brewers, Blue Jays, A’s, Marlins, White Sox and Reds as clubs with interest, while both Piecoro and Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle report the Astros are in the mix.

Arizona has a number of players that could draw interest, and it stands to reason different teams have varied preferences on the group. Corbin Carroll is arguably the top prospect in baseball, and both Piecoro and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic have suggested recently he’s off the table in trade discussions. Carroll’s presence gives the Snakes a potential franchise center fielder, though, freeing them up to listen to offers on their other outfielders.

Daulton Varsho is the most established of the group, and he’d be the toughest to pry from the desert. The 26-year-old got off to a slow start offensively in the majors, but he broke through in his third season. Varsho connected on 27 home runs with a .235/.302/.443 line across 592 plate appearances in 2022. That’s slightly better than average production at the plate, and he offers immense value in other areas. Varsho stole 16 bases (albeit with six failed attempts as well), and he has emerged as one of the game’s best defensive outfielders.

Also an intermittent catcher at times in his career, he’s acclimated to outfield work incredibly well. Varsho’s an above-average runner, and Statcast credits him with elite reads off the bat. By its Outs Above Average metric, Varsho made an estimated 18 more plays than expected in his 920 1/3 innings between center and right field this year. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him a combined 19 runs above par, with both metrics grading him highly in both center and the corner outfield. Varsho doesn’t have a great throwing arm — part of the reason he’s increasingly moved off catcher in the first place — but he’s an athletic, rangy defender who can cover anywhere in the outfield and occasionally factor in at catcher if needed.

Varsho qualified for early arbitration as a Super Two player this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for an affordable $2.8MM salary, and he comes with four remaining seasons of club control. Between the all-around production and affordable window of control, the trade appeal with Varsho is immense.

That’s not true to the same extent for the Snakes’ other outfielders, but there’s still a fair amount of appeal. Jake McCarthy is a former supplemental first-round draftee, but most prospect evaluators believed he’d be better suited for fourth outfield duty. While that may wind up being the case, the 25-year-old outperformed that projection in 354 plate appearances this past season. McCarthy hit .283/.342/.427 with eight home runs and stole 23 bases on just 26 tries. His average exit velocity and hard contact percentage are a bit below-average, and the offensive profile was propped up by a .349 batting average on balls in play. The Virginia product is an excellent baserunner who’s athletic enough to cover all three outfield spots, though, and he generally has a solid offensive track record in the minors. McCarthy still hasn’t reached a full year of service time and is controllable through 2028.

Alek Thomas offers a similar profile but is a different story, in that he’s been a top prospect who has yet to find much MLB success. The sport’s #32 prospect heading into 2022 according to Baseball America, Thomas debuted in May. He spent most of the year as their primary center fielder but struggled, hitting .231/.275/.344 through 411 plate appearances. He didn’t draw many walks or drive the ball with much authority, and the tough line led to a demotion back to Triple-A at the end of the season. Thomas won’t turn 23 until next April and is a career .313/.389/.499 hitter in the minor leagues, though. He’s regarded as a potential plus defensive center fielder with strong contact skills. Like McCarthy, he has yet to reach even one year of MLB service.

The trio of Varsho, McCarthy and Thomas is certain to draw the most trade interest, but Arizona also has Pavin Smith and Dominic Fletcher as depth options on the 40-man roster. Smith hasn’t done much at the MLB level but is a former top ten pick. Fletcher is a .296/.358/.467 hitter in the minors and was added to the 40-man at the end of the season to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. A trade involving either player wouldn’t be as significant as a move involving their top trio, but it’s possible the Snakes find some interest in both.

The extended windows of club control for each of McCarthy, Varsho and Thomas could make them of interest to teams at varying levels of the competitive cycle. That’s highlighted in the wide array of clubs that have checked in with Arizona. Milwaukee, Houston, Toronto, the White Sox and the Yankees are all win-now teams known to be looking for ways to plug a gap in center and/or a corner outfield spot. Houston is known to be in search of a left-handed bat, in particular.

Miami is behind that quintet from a competitive perspective. Still, the Fish are hoping to improve their offense to take a step forward in 2023, likely by subtracting from their enviable rotation depth. The Marlins are without an obvious center fielder on their MLB roster at present, with players like Jesús Sánchez, Bryan De La Cruz and JJ Bleday stretched there defensively. Miami and the D-Backs have linked up on a swap of young players before with the Jazz Chisholm/Zac Gallen deal, although that was orchestrated by the previous Marlins front office.

Oakland and Cincinnati are firmly amidst rebuilds, making them somewhat surprising fits at first glance. Yet the opportunity to acquire a pre-arbitration key piece at least opens the door for teams that are more traditionally “sellers” to gauge the market. A’s GM David Forst told reporters this week that acquiring players at or near the majors is “at the top of our to-do list” (via Melissa Lockard of the Athletic). Reds GM Nick Krall similarly indicated at the GM Meetings the team was considering trade possibilities involving prospects or “lower cost, more controllable players in the big leagues” (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer).

There are a number of ways the discussions could go, but it seems clear Arizona would want MLB-ready talent in return. Hazen flatly rejected the notion of trading any of their outfielders solely for prospects last month, and Piecoro writes they could look for infield or catching help in discussions — with particular emphasis on adding some right-handed punch to the lineup.

Red Sox Rumors: Reynolds, Senga, Murphy, Diamondbacks

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The Red Sox are the latest club to show interest in Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds, The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes.  Reynolds is one of a few names on the trade radar for the Sox early in the offseason, as Speier reports that the Red Sox have looked into the Diamondbacks’ group of left-handed hitting outfielders, and Boston is also expected to again check in with the Athletics about catcher Sean Murphy.

Public defensive metrics were down (-3.2 UZR/150, -7 Outs Above Average, -14 Defensive Runs Saved) on Reynolds’ work in center field in 2022, yet with Enrique Hernandez perhaps lined up anyway as Boston’s top center field choice, the Sox could have an eye on moving Reynolds into a corner outfield spot at Fenway.  His bat should play anywhere, as Reynolds hit .262/.345/.461 with 27 homers over 614 plate appearances with the Pirates last season.  With the exception of the shortened 2020 season, Reynolds has been a decidedly above-average bat in his four years in the majors, even if his center field defense has been more of a mixed bag.

Adding Reynolds would be an ideal solution for a Red Sox team looking for more power in general, and with a specific need in the outfield.  Hernandez, Alex Verdugo, and journeyman Rob Refsnyder line up as the current starting outfield, with unproven prospect Jarren Duran and a few utility options as depth.  If Reynolds was obtained for a corner outfield spot, Refsnyder would likely be pushed to a bench spot; if Reynolds still played center field, the versatile Hernandez might be see more work at second base.  Since Verdugo has also been floated as a potential trade candidate, however, a bigger outfield shake-up could be a possibility.

Corbin Carroll, Daulton Varsho, Alek Thomas, and Jake McCarthy are all left-handed bats primed for regular duty in Arizona, creating a bit of a surplus the D’Backs could use to fill other roster needs.  Thomas and McCarthy are seen as the likeliest to be moved, though it isn’t known which names the Sox might have directly asked about.  None of the quartet are as established as Reynolds, yet all have shown intriguing potential either as prospects or early in their Major League careers.

D’Backs general manager Mike Hazen has stated that his team would want MLB-ready talent for any of the outfielders, yet the asking price for an Arizona outfielder wouldn’t be as cumbersome as the Pirates’ demands for Reynolds, which are known to be enormous.  It would only take one big offer to perhaps change the mind of Pirates GM Ben Cherington (who formerly ran Boston’s front office), and yet roughly half the teams in baseball have been linked to Reynolds over the last year-plus, with no movement on the trade front.  By this point, several pundits have opined that Reynolds won’t be dealt, as the Pirates hope to return to contention before Reynolds hits free agency following the 2025 season.

Murphy is in something of a similar situation, as he is also arb-controlled through the 2025 campaign.  While the A’s are in an earlier point in their latest rebuild and catching prospect Shea Langeliers is waiting in the wings, Oakland is under no direct pressure to move Murphy for anything less than a major trade package.  Speier cites Brayan Bello as the type of top-tier, MLB-ready younger player the Athletics want as the headliner in a Murphy trade, though it isn’t clear if the A’s wanted Bello specifically in any earlier talks between the Red Sox and A’s prior to the trade deadline.  If this was the case, that deal might be a no-go, as Speier writes that “Bello borders on untradeable” from Boston’s perspective.

Speaking of untouchable players, the Red Sox also inquired about Zac Gallen, but the Diamondbacks have told clubs that Gallen isn’t available.  Pitching is another need on Boston’s winter shopping list, and Speier figures the Sox to be among the many suitors for Kodai Senga since they “were among many teams to scout him heavily” in Japan.  The Mariners, Rangers, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Padres, Cubs, and Angels have already been linked to Senga’s market, with MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweeting earlier today about the Angels’ interest.  Senga is free of his NPB commitments, so an interested Major League team can negotiate with him like any free agent, without the obstacle of the posting system.

Hazen: Diamondbacks Have Flexibility For At Least Slight Payroll Bump

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The Diamondbacks head into the offseason looking to bolster a roster that showed some promise in the second half. General manager Mike Hazen indicated last month the team was prioritizing adding swing-and-miss to the bullpen and was looking for another right-handed bat, and he suggested this week the front office should have financial breathing room for some additions.

“I think we’re going to have some room to move,” Hazen told reporters at the GM Meetings (link via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic). “When we’ve felt like the team has gotten better, (owner Ken Kendrick) has usually given us leeway to maneuver. I think that’s going to be the case to some degree. I don’t know that we’re going to get to levels where we’ve been in the recent past, but I think we’re going to have some flexibility to do some things. I think the talent on our team warrants some additional good players.”

That’s not the resounding promise for a payroll spike for which the fanbase was probably hoping, although it does suggest they’ll be able to dip into free agency for help. Arizona signed only three free agents — Mark Melancon, Ian Kennedy and Zach Davies — to big league contracts last winter, tacking on a modest $12MM on the open market. The Snakes entered the 2022 campaign with a player payroll just under $91MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, their second straight year between $90MM and $96MM.

Before the pandemic-shortened season, Arizona pushed spending north of $120MM in both 2018-19. Hazen’s comments downplay the possibility of getting back to those heights in 2023, but it doesn’t seem out of the question the team could push above $100MM in Opening Day payroll for the first time since 2020.

A relief corps that had the majors lowest strikeout rate figures to be a key priority. Arizona already bought low on a reliever with decent swing-and-miss ability, claiming Cole Sulser off waivers from the Marlins this week. That’s just one of what should be multiple additions, although an already-thin free agent relief market has seen arguably its top two players (Edwin Díaz and Robert Suarez) agree to re-sign with their previous teams. That leaves Taylor Rogers, Rafael Montero, Carlos Estévez, Seth Lugo, Andrew Chafin, Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin among the top arms available, although the D-Backs are sure to look into trades and/or waivers for additional options.

One other key offseason storyline for the D-Backs is whether they’d deal from their stable of upper level outfielders. Arizona has seen Daulton Varsho and Corbin Carroll emerge as key pieces of the future, while Jake McCarthy had a strong 2022 campaign to earn everyday reps. Alek Thomas didn’t hit the ground running at the big league level, but he’s a high-contact center fielder who entered the year as a top prospect. The Snakes could certainly hang onto that depth, but Hazen has spoken on a number of occasions about a willingness to entertain trade offers on members of that group.

The GM reiterated this week that dealing an outfielder is a possibility, but he emphasized he’d only do so in a move that brought back immediate MLB talent. “I’m not trading them for prospects. The prospect trade is out,” Hazen said (via Piecoro). “You can take that off the table. It’ll have to be (an established or major league ready player) and at a caliber for us that we felt like we were equally maintaining (value).”

Hazen pointed out the outfield would have a trickle-down effect on how the team approaches the designated hitter position. He suggested the current outfield depth was likely to spill over to rotating players through the DH spot but acknowledged pursuing a full-fledged DH could be more realistic with a trade that ships away an outfielder. Hazen, a former Red Sox executive, pointed to David Ortiz in suggesting he’s not opposed to having an everyday DH in the right circumstances. The D-Backs certainly aren’t going to find a hitter on the level of the Hall of Fame slugger, but old friend J.D. Martinez is an impact free agent righty bat. Nelson Cruz is coming off a terrible year but could find a big league opportunity, while players like Justin Turner and Evan Longoria could fit as hybrids between a questionable third base position and DH in the desert.

Certainly, Arizona could look to the trade market for their desired right-handed bat as well — perhaps in a deal that sends out one of their lefty-swinging young outfielders. What’s clear is the Diamondbacks aren’t approaching the offseason as a rebuilder or traditional “seller,” however. To that end, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported this week Arizona has no plans to trade Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly this offseason. Dealing away either of their top two starters — each of whom is controllable through 2025 — never seemed especially  likely after Arizona’s somewhat promising end to the season, particularly with the club having a number of unproven options at the back end. Rosenthal suggests the D-Backs would unsurprisingly be open to shedding some of the two years and $37MM remaining on Madison Bumgarner’s contract, although finding another team willing to take a notable chunk of that money probably isn’t happening unless Arizona shoulders an undesirable contract in return.

The Opener: Astros, Options, Diamondbacks

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Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.

With the final game of the 2022 MLB season coming as soon as tomorrow night, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:

1. Astros Facing Decisions On Baker, Click

After a hard-fought Game 5 that afforded Justin Verlander his first pitcher win in the World Series, the Astros will look to clinch back home in Houston tomorrow night. As soon as they do, however, they’ll have to face the personnel decisions that their postseason run has put on hold to this point. Both manager Dusty Baker and GM James Click are on expiring contracts, and Astros owner Jim Crane will have to decide their futures with the franchise. The Astros are expected to ask Baker to return in 2023, and Baker has indicated that he would like to continue managing regardless of the outcome of this postseason run. The future is murkier for Click, however, as speculation has run rampant throughout the postseason that he may not be asked to return to Houston in 2023, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post mentioning the uncertainty surrounding Click’s future as recently as last night. While it’s surprising to see so much uncertainty around a GM who has captured back-to-back AL pennants and might add a World Series championship to his resume as soon as tomorrow night, reports of a personality clash between Crane and Click abound. Heyman suggests that the Astros may be interested in David Stearns, who served as their assistant GM prior to running Milwaukee’s front office. While Stearns has stepped down as president of baseball operations for the Brewers, he’s not likely to run the Astros or any other team during the 2023 season, for which he is still under contract in Milwaukee. Even if the Astros are indeed interested in Stearns as their long-term head of baseball operations, the question of who will be at the helm in Houston next season remains unanswered.

2. Option Decisions Loom

A number of players and teams are facing option decisions, and with the World Series set to end this weekend, those decisions will have to be made sometime next week. While some decisions, such as that of Nolan Arenado, have already been made, most are still up in the air. Anthony Rizzo, Jurickson Profar, and Jake Odorizzi are among the players with tougher decisions facing them on whether or not to test free agency. As for club options, the Dodgers have one of the tougher calls on Justin Turner’s $16MM option, as do the Brewers on Kolten Wong’s $10MM option. Additionally, many of the biggest names on the free agent market this season, such as Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts, are technically not set to be free agents until they opt-out of their current contracts, though for decisions as clear as these this is little more than a formality.

3. Arizona Faces Outfield Logjam

Despite finishing the regular season with an unimpressive 74-88 record, the Diamondbacks are by no means a team without talent. Unfortunately for Arizona, however, a great deal of that talent overlaps heavily, as the team is flush with young, controllable, lefty-hitting outfielders. Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas highlight the bunch in terms of prospect pedigree, but Jake McCarthy had a breakout season in 2022, Daulton Varsho turned in a quality season as an everyday player spending most of his time in the outfield, Pavin Smith won’t be eligible for arbitration until after next season, and Dominic Fletcher is knocking on the door in Triple-A. Between the DH and some positional versatility — Varsho caught 175 innings in 2022, while Smith played a bit of first base — Arizona could find at-bats for most, or perhaps even all, of these players. A better solution for the Diamondbacks, though, would be to explore trades for one or two of these young players in order to shore up their pitching staff or address other holes in the lineup. Carroll and Varsho would likely be off-limits, but perhaps a team looking to get more left-handed bats into the lineup, such as either Chicago team or the Marlins, could be interested in acquiring McCarthy, Smith, or Fletcher. While it’s not inconceivable Thomas could be moved, after a rough start to his major league career in 2022, Arizona would likely be selling low on him in any deal.

Hazen: D-Backs To Pursue Bullpen Help, Open To Adding At Catcher

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The Diamondbacks had a quietly solid second half, setting themselves up for an interesting offseason. Arizona’s 73-89 overall record is obviously far from where they want to be, but the team has seen a number of young position players begin to produce at the major league level.

General manager Mike Hazen addressed the roster during his end-of-season media session yesterday. He provided a rundown of areas the club will look to address this winter (link via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic).

Unsurprisingly, Hazen suggested that adding to the bullpen will be a priority. The D-Backs ran out a well below-average relief group for a third consecutive season, finishing the year 25th in ERA (4.58). Arizona relievers ranked last in the big leagues in strikeout rate (19.7%) and 28th in swinging strike percentage (10.9%). Hazen flatly stated improving the bullpen’s strikeout numbers will be a priority, suggesting the club will look into higher-velocity arms to that end.

Arizona added a pair of veteran relievers, Mark Melancon and Ian Kennedy, in free agency last winter. Kennedy was coming off an above-average 27.2% strikeout percentage with the Rangers and Phillies in 2021, but he stumbled to a 19% strikeout rate while losing a tick on his average fastball this season. Melancon hasn’t been a high-strikeout arm for years, and he posted a 4.66 ERA during his first season in the desert after posting a sub-3.00 mark in each of the previous two years. Melancon will be back next season on a $6MM salary, while Kennedy is a virtual lock to be bought out.

Of the 17 D-Backs relievers to top 10 innings pitched, only four had a swinging strike rate better than the 11.8% league average. Only one member of that group, All-Star lefty Joe Mantiply, is a lock to return. Arizona has already parted with Noé Ramirez, while Keynan Middleton and Caleb Smith were both extremely homer-prone and seem likely to be non-tendered.

The D-Backs aren’t going to make a run at a top-of-the-market free agent reliever like Edwin Díaz, but pitchers like Trevor May, Adam Ottavino and Miguel Castro are all hitting free agency after posting quality swing-and-miss numbers. Robert Suarez, who has a $5MM player option for next year with the Padres, and Carlos Estévez are among the hardest-throwing relievers who’ll be available. Hazen also suggested the front office would be more amenable than they’ve been in recent years to dealing young talent for relief help.

While the bullpen will be a key target area, it’s certainly not the only spot on the roster the D-Backs will be open to adding. Hazen indicated the club could look into offensive help, pointing to catcher as a position they could address. Carson Kelly has been the primary backstop for the past four seasons, but he’s never made the strides as a hitter the team had hoped when adding him as a central piece of the Paul Goldschmidt trade. Kelly looked as if he was on the way to his breakout with an excellent first two months in 2021, but that year was thrown off track by a right wrist fracture in late June. In the season and a half since that point, Kelly owns a .214/.287/.344 line in 526 trips to the plate.

While Hazen praised the 28-year-old’s defensive ability, he added that “chasing a little more offense at that position, given what the rest of the roster could look like, is something that we might take a look at.” It’d register as a surprise if they make a run at the top free agent at the position, Willson Contreras, but Arizona does have a fair amount of long-term financial flexibility. The Snakes have roughly $59MM on next season’s books (not including projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players) and just $38MM committed by 2024.

There aren’t many definitive offensive upgrades other than Contreras available in free agency, but the trade market figures to feature a couple of the sport’s better two-way backstops. The A’s Sean Murphy will be eligible for arbitration for the first time and could be available as Oakland continues its roster overhaul. Murphy hit .250/.322/.426 through 612 plate appearances, offense that checks in 22 points better than league average by measure of wRC+. It’s also possible the Blue Jays leverage their stockpile of catching depth for help elsewhere, moving a player like Danny Jansen on the heels of a .260/.339/.516 showing.

Whether at catcher or another position, Hazen suggested adding a right-handed bat to the mix was a possibility, as Arizona’s in-house lineup skews left-handed. Among their current projected regulars, only Kelly, first baseman Christian Walker and shortstop Nick Ahmed hit right-handed. Kelly, who’d be due a raise on this season’s $3.325MM salary via arbitration, could be non-tendered if the Snakes find an upgrade at catcher. Ahmed isn’t a lock to return to everyday duty after missing almost all of this season with a shoulder injury, and he’s a bottom-of-the-lineup defensive specialist even when at full strength.

The D-Backs have a number of lefty-swinging outfielders, all of whom are capable of playing all three outfield spots. Corbin Carroll and Daulton Varsho were top minor league talents, and both played well this season. Carroll didn’t make his MLB debut until late August, but both he and Varsho are guaranteed everyday reps going into next year. Jake McCarthy wasn’t the same level of prospect, but he hit .283/.342/.427 over 354 trips to the dish in 2022. Alek Thomas didn’t perform well in the majors, hitting .231/.275/.344 over 411 plate appearances. Still, he’s an excellent defensive outfielder and entered this season as a top prospect.

That quartet has varying levels of trade value — Carroll and Varsho would have more appeal than McCarthy or Thomas — but there’s reason for optimism among all of that group. It’s hard to envision the Diamondbacks parting with Carroll or Varsho, but dealing one of McCarthy or Thomas seems possible. Hazen unsurprisingly noted he doesn’t feel he has to trade anyone, pointing to the ability to rotate them through the designated hitter position, but he sounded amenable to a move in the right circumstance. “Take a left-handed hitting outfielder and turn him into a right-handed hitting slugger, yeah, I can see that puzzle coming together,” Hazen said (via Piecoro). “It’s not going to be taking one of those guys and trading them for prospects in that type of way.”

Theoretically the D-Backs could also leverage their outfield depth to add starting pitching behind the top duo of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. While Arizona has a number of interesting young arms at or near the MLB level — Drey Jameson, Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt and Blake Walston among them — there’s still a fair bit of uncertainty with any unproven young pitcher. Madison Bumgarner, whom the club signed to a five-year deal to be the staff ace, hasn’t come close to matching his previous production in San Francisco. The four-time All-Star has an ERA of 4.67 or higher in all three of his seasons as a Diamondback, including a 4.88 mark with just a 16% strikeout rate through 30 starts this year.

Bumgarner has two years and $37MM remaining on his deal, and the D-Backs would be hard-pressed to find a taker for any notable portion of that money on the trade market. Hazen suggested the 33-year-old will have an inside track at a rotation job heading into next season but implied his leash could be getting shorter. “I do think incumbency probably matters when you’re going into spring training, for sure, especially with the younger guys that we have,” the GM said of Bumgarner’s status. “But if the expectation next year is going to be moving the ball forward from where we are right now, we are going to be making decisions that we need to make as we need to make them.”

D-Backs fans will want to read through Piecoro’s piece in full, as it contains myriad quotes from Hazen on the status of the roster and the organization’s offseason plans.

Diamondbacks Option Alek Thomas

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The Diamondbacks announced that outfielder Jake McCarthy was reinstated from the bereavement list. In a corresponding move, fellow outfielder Alek Thomas was optioned to Triple-A Reno.

Thomas, 22, was initially promoted to the big leagues in May while considered one of the top prospects in the sport at the time. Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs all had him in the top 40 on their respective lists of the best youngsters around the league. Unfortunately, he hasn’t hit the ground running in his first shot at the big leagues, producing a batting line of .231/.275/.344 through his first 113 games for a wRC+ of 71, or 29% below league average.

He’s managed to keep the strikeouts down to a rate of 18%, which is a few ticks below the 22.3% league average this year. However, he’s also walked at a below-average 5.4% rate and isn’t doing much damage when he makes contact. His .263 batting average on balls in play could involve some bad luck, but he’s also in just the 21st percentile in terms of hard hit percentage, the 12th percentile for barrel rate and 20th in average exit velocity. He is in the 75th percentile in terms of max exit velocity, which suggests he can do damage when he does square the ball up. He’s just not doing it very often so far.

It’s not all doom and gloom, as Thomas has a solid floor because of his speed and defense. He has 94th percentile sprint speed and is in the 92nd percentile in terms of Outs Above Average. If the bat can take a step forward and start to resemble his production in the minor leagues, he would become an incredibly valuable and well-rounded player.

The Diamondbacks are flush with outfielders, which is seemingly what has nudged Thomas out of the picture for now. Daulton Varsho has seemingly made a permanent move from catching to the outfield, according to reporting from earlier this month. He joins an outfield mix that includes Thomas, McCarthy, Stone Garrett, Jordan Luplow and Corbin Carroll. Like Thomas, Carroll was a highly-touted prospect who made his debut this year, but with much more success. Through 24 games, Carroll is hitting .256/.318/.474 for a wRC+ of 119. With Varsho, Garrett and McCarthy all also hitting well, the club has a bevy of outfield options at its disposal at the moment.

The Diamondbacks are well out of contention with just over a week left in the regular season, meaning the remaining games will primarily be for evaluating players and gathering information for the future. In that context, it’s noteworthy that Thomas has been squeezed out here. During the offseason, there figures to be plenty of speculation about the club using its strong outfield depth to upgrade other parts of the roster, with varying opinions about who is most likely to be moved. This demotion certainly doesn’t mean Thomas has been erased from the team’s plans, as he’s still only 22 years old and prospects don’t always develop in a linear fashion. Though it does perhaps indicate that some less-hyped outfielders like McCarthy and Garrett have played well enough to earn longer looks and complicate the picture. McCarthy is hitting .288/.352/.446 this year for a 124 wRC+ in 91 games. Garrett has gotten into just 22 games but has hit .318/.352/.621 in that time for a wRC+ of 165.

From a service time perspective, this won’t have an immediate impact on Thomas. He was promoted a month after Opening Day and was always going to come up short of one year of service time in 2022. This demotion, assuming he doesn’t return, will only cost him about ten days from his tally. (Optional assignments for position players come with a ten-day minimum but an exception is made if another player is going on the injured list.) Though if Thomas continues to be outside the team’s immediate outfield plans, future optional assignments could push back his free agency or arbitration eligibility.

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