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Ross Atkins Addresses Blue Jays Offseason

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Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins addressed reporters following the team’s playoff exit at the hands of the Mariners. With a manager still holding the interim tag, a young core that’s getting more and more expensive, and veterans dealing with injuries there’s plenty of question marks going into the offseason in Toronto.

Atkins didn’t make any firm commitments at manager just yet. Asked about the status of interim skipper John Schneider, Atkins noted that it would be “very difficult for us to find better than [him]” but cautioned he “wants more time to work through the (hiring) process” (via Julia Kreuz of MLB.com). The Jays fired Charlie Montoyo in July with the team 46-42. Schneider was handed the team through the end of the season, and the Jays went 46-28 with him at the helm. While the improvement under Schneider is evident, the team did still fall well short of expectations in the playoffs. Atkins and his front office staff certainly wouldn’t rule Schneider out because of two games, and there’d seem to be a good chance he’s retained, but he wasn’t prepared to make any move at this point.

On the playing side, Atkins seemed to indicate running back the current core to be the best path to a championship for the team. The GM both downplayed any urgency to make a core-altering trade and indicated the club had laid the groundwork in extension talks with some core players in hopes of further discussions this offseason (via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). Atkins didn’t divulge any specifics, but it stands to reason players like Alek Manoah, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette would fit into that group. Guerrero has three more seasons of arbitration control but is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $14.1MM next year after qualifying for early arbitration as a Super Two player in 2021. Bichette is projected for $6.1MM in his first year of eligibility and is likewise controllable through 2025. Manoah is controllable through 2027 and not yet arbitration eligible, although he’s likely to qualify for Super Two at the end of next season.

Atkins was non-committal on how active the Jays will be in free agency, but Nicholson-Smith mentions they’re expected to pursue starting pitching help. Kevin Gausman is a lock to lead the rotation, but Jose Berrios struggled to a 5.23 ERA in 2022, while Yusei Kikuchi pitched his way out of the rotation with a 5.19 ERA. Berrios will get a chance to turn things around in 2023, while Kikuchi is expected to get another crack at pitching out of the rotation next year. However, Ross Stripling is an impending free agent and Hyun Jin-Ryu will miss most, if not all, of next season recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Atkins also addressed the status of George Springer, who left the Jays final playoff game after colliding with Bichette while pursuing a shallow fly ball. The Jays announced this morning that Springer had sustained a concussion and a strained left shoulder. Atkins indicated today that Springer also has a bone spur in his right elbow and could undergo offseason surgery (Nicholson-Smith). In any event, the expectation is that he’ll be ready for spring training, although given he’s 33 with a checkered injury past and declining defensive numbers it’s fair to wonder how long the Jays will count on him as an everyday center fielder.

The Changing Landscape Of The AL Cy Young Race

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Two weeks ago, the Cy Young race in the American League looked like a two-horse race, with both Houston’s Justin Verlander and Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan hovering at or below the 2.00 ERA mark and racking up innings atop their teams’ respective rotations. McClanahan has the larger strikeout percentage and subsequently superior marks from fielding-independent metrics that some voters increasingly weigh. Verlander was averaging one extra out recorded per start prior to being lifted early his last time out, and his 16-3 win-loss record might hold some sway with traditionalist voters.

Or, all of that could be rendered moot.

Both Verlander and McClanahan are on the 15-day injured list, and Verlander, who had been improbably leading the Majors in ERA as a 39-year-old in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, sounds as though he’ll miss several weeks rather than just the 15-day minimum. McClanahan, a late scratch from his last start, is already throwing and seems likelier to make a quick return. However, the Rays could very well take a cautious approach and limit his innings after a two-week absence due to a shoulder impingement.

At the very least, the door is now open for further competition in Cy Young voting, ostensibly setting the stage for the closest AL vote we’ve seen since 2019, when Verlander and then-teammate Gerrit Cole finished in the top two positions on the ballot. Last year’s NL Cy Young voting sparked plenty of controversy and debate as well, and as things currently stand, we could get an encore of that scene in the AL this year.

If not Verlander or McClanahan, who are the top names to consider? Let’s dive in.

Dylan Cease, RHP, White Sox

Cease, following a near-no-hitter against the Twins that saw him go 8 2/3 before Luis Arraez cracked a ninth-inning single, may have leapfrogged both Verlander and McClanahan as the odds-on favorite in the American League. He’s sitting on MLB’s third-lowest ERA — sandwiched right between Verlander and McClanahan, no less — and that 2.13 mark is complemented by a 31.4% strikeout rate that ranks as the fourth-highest of any qualified starting pitcher in baseball.

At 5.5 wins above replacement (per Baseball Reference), Cease already leads American League pitchers — even over Verlander and McClanahan. That’d due largely to the fact that Cease is putting up these numbers in front of one of the game’s bottom-10 defenses.

It’s not all roses, as Cease has a 10.4% walk rate that sits dead last among qualified starters. He hasn’t been terribly efficient, either; where both Verlander and McClanahan have averaged comfortably more than six innings per start, Cease has averaged 5.77 innings per appearance this year.

Still, Chicagoans can no doubt see the parallels between Cease’s 2022 showing and the 2016 performance of another Chicago hurler — crosstown righty Jake Arrieta, when he rode a historic summer surge to Cy Young honors. Over his past 15 starts, Cease has tallied 93 innings of 1.45 ERA ball and held opponents to one or zero runs on a dozen occasions. Cease isn’t quite in Arrieta territory (0.86 ERA in his final 147 innings), but he’s not terribly far off, either. If he can sustain anything close to this pace, Cease will finish the season at or near the top of the AL in terms of innings pitched, ERA, total strikeouts and strikeout rate.

Alek Manoah, RHP, Blue Jays

Manoah looked borderline unhittable for the season’s first two months, carrying a 1.67 ERA in that time and allowing just 55 hits and a 0.59 HR/9 mark through June 13 (75 2/3 innings). He had a solid but closer-to-average run for much of the summer but has now yielded just three runs in his past 28 1/3 innings.

At 171 innings of 2.42 ERA ball on the year, the 24-year-old is on the periphery of the race at present. He ranks fourth in American League ERA but trails McClanahan, Cease and especially Verlander in that department. He lacks the gaudy strikeout ratios boasted by both Cease and McClanahan but limits hard contact better than any non-McClanahan pitcher in the AL, evidenced by a 31.3% hard-hit rate. (McClanahan leads qualified AL starters at 30.1%.)

However, Manoah’s 171 are second-most in the American League, and if he continues this hot streak, there’s a chance he could wind up among the league leaders in ERA, innings pitched and other key categories. In terms of wins and losses, everyone’s trailing Verlander’s 16 victories, but Manoah’s 14 are tied with Framber Valdez for second in the league. Speaking of which…

Framber Valdez, LHP, Astros

It’s easy to be overshadowed by the season Verlander is enjoying, but we should all probably be discussing Valdez’s outstanding year more than we are. The 28-year-old southpaw is just one-third of an inning behind Manoah at 170 2/3, and he also sits sixth in ERA (2.64) and ninth in bWAR (3.4).

Valdez has emerged as baseball’s preeminent ground-ball starting pitcher, and it’s not close; he leads all qualified pitchers in ground-ball rate at 66.7%, and Logan Webb’s 57.5% rate is second-best. Even dropping the minimum to 50 innings as a starter, he still leads Alex Cobb (61.9%) and Andre Pallante (61.4%) by a wide margin.

In an age where starters are yanked from the game earlier than ever before, Valdez is a throwback. He’s worked at least six innings in every one of his starts since April 25, completing seven or more innings on 11 occasions and twice going the distance with a complete game. Over his past five starts, Valdez has 35 2/3 innings of 1.77 ERA ball. It’ll be a challenge for him to drop his ERA into the low 2.00s, and he can’t match Cease or McClanahan in terms of strikeouts, but Valdez will likely be the American League innings leader and finish with a mid-2.00s ERA and MLB-leading ground-ball rate.

Shohei Ohtani, RHP, Angels

When Ohtani pitched to a 3.99 ERA through the first six weeks of the season, it looked as if we were in for an (almost) mortal season out of the two-way phenom. He averaged just over five innings per start, and while the strikeouts were still there in droves, he was also unusually homer-prone. A Cy Young pursuit did not appear to be on the horizon.

In 88 2/3 innings since that time? Ohtani has a 1.83 ERA with fewer homers allowed (six) than in his first 47 1/3 innings (seven). He at one point rattled off six consecutive starts with double-digit strikeout totals, and opponents have batted .199/.249/.301 against him during this stretch.

Ohtani’s 33% strikeout rate on the season leads qualified starting pitchers (though would trail Braves phenom Spencer Strider by a good margin if Strider had a few more innings), and while many fans and Ohtani detractors bristle at the notion, it’s hard not to consider that he does all this while also serving as a middle-of-the-order slugger who ranks among the league’s top power threats.

Ultimately, with just 136 innings pitched this season, it’s hard to imagine that Ohtani will actually garner many (if any) first-place Cy Young votes. Yes, he’s sporting a 2.58 ERA, leading the league with a 33% strikeout rate and sitting second among AL starters with 4.7 bWAR. But Ohtani is ultimately going to be up against multiple starters with better bottom-line run prevention numbers and as many as 40 to 50 additional innings pitched. Corbin Burnes won an NL Cy Young last year with just 167 frames, but the top names in the American League this year have had better seasons.

Kevin Gausman, RHP, Blue Jays

Gausman will be the analytic darling in this year’s field. I debated whether to mention him at all for this breakdown, as he’d need a pretty dominant finish to push his way in among the leaders in more traditional categories, but the right-hander is second in the American League at FanGraphs with 5.2 wins above replacement. fWAR is based on fielding-independent pitching rather than actual runs allowed, and Gausman has been quite good this season — 3.12 ERA in 147 innings — despite being one of the game’s least-fortunate pitchers in terms of balls in play. He’s lugging around an MLB-worst .368 BABIP, and the next-highest mark (Jordan Lyles at .323) isn’t even close.

There’s perhaps some temptation to think that Gausman is then yielding far too much hard contact, but that’s not necessarily the case. He’s not managing contact as well as any of the others profiled here, but his 89 mph average exit velocity and 39% hard-hit rate are barely north of the respective 88.6 mph and 38.3% league averages in those regards.

Gausman has the game’s third-best walk rate (3.8%), the tenth-best strikeout rate (27.9%) and is sixth-best in the differential between those two (24.1 K-BB%). He’s averaging just 5 2/3 innings per start, however, and isn’t particularly helping his cause down the stretch (3.99 ERA over his past five outings… again, with a .370 BABIP).

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A lot can (and will) change between now and season’s end, but since this is all just for debate anyhow, I’ll include a poll to close this out:

MLB Suspends Blue Jays Alek Manoah Five Games For Hitting Maikel Franco With Pitch

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TODAY: After starting yesterday, Manoah has dropped his appeal and will begin his suspension.  Since the Blue Jays have an off-day Monday, Manoah likely won’t miss a start during his five games off.

JUNE 22: Major League Baseball announced that Blue Jays right-hander Alek Manoah has been suspended for five games and fined an undisclosed amount for “intentionally throwing” at Orioles third baseman Maikel Franco during last Saturday’s start in Baltimore. He is appealing the ban.

After surrendering back-to-back home runs to Ryan Mountcastle and DJ Stewart, Manoah hit Franco on the elbow with a 94 MPH fastball in the fourth inning of Saturday’s game. Franco took exception and jawed at Manoah, leading the benches to empty. Manoah was ejected by first base umpire Jerry Meals.

Additionally, Toronto manager Charlie Montoyo has been suspended for one game as a result of Manoah’s actions. He’ll serve his punishment tonight, sitting out the Jays game against the Marlins.

Blue Jays To Promote Alek Manoah

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The Blue Jays are promoting right-handed pitching prospect Alek Manoah, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. He’ll start Wednesday against the Yankees.

It was a quick rise up the ranks for Manoah, the 11th overall pick in the 2019 draft. The former West Virginia star was excellent in Low-A ball that year, though he was unable to build on that last season because of the lack of a minor league campaign. However, Manoah picked up where he left off this season prior to his first major league promotion. The 23-year-old has dominated in his Triple-A debut with 18 innings of seven-hit, one-run ball and 27 strikeouts against three walks.

As one would expect based on his professional production, Manoah is among the game’s highest-regarded prospects. Outlets such as The Athletic, Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus have all placed him in their top 100 lists of late, with MLB.com writing that the 6-foot-6, 260-pounder’s three-pitch repertoire – a fastball, slider and changeup – could pave the way for a solid career as a starter.

While it remains to be seen whether Manoah will be able to stick in the bigs this year, Toronto could use the boost in its rotation. Hyun Jin Ryu, Robbie Ray and Steven Matz have combined for good production across 26 outings, but the Jays have gotten little else from their starters in 2021.

Blue Jays Notes: Tellez, Atkins, Manoah, Pearson, Hatch

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The Blue Jays may be dealing with yet another injury absence, as Rowdy Tellez suffered a mild left hamstring strain that forced him out of today’s 10-8 victory over the Phillies.  While batting in the eighth inning, Tellez slipped on home plate after hitting a line drive to left field, as a would-be double was limited to a single since Tellez was moving gingerly down the first base line.  Jays manager Charlie Montoyo told Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling and other reporters that “there’s a good chance” Tellez would be placed on the 10-day injured list.

An injury would compound that has already been a very tough start to the season for Tellez.  After seemingly breaking out during the 2020 season, Tellez has hit only .188/.225/.282 with two home runs over 89 plate appearances this year.  Despite making a lot of hard contact, Tellez has only a .222 BABIP and has only two walks against 20 strikeouts.  The Jays already sent Tellez down to the alternate training site in April as a result of his struggles, and it’s possible he would still in the minors if he wasn’t needed to help fill a hole on Toronto’s injury-plagued roster.

With Tellez likely to join George Springer, Joe Panik, and Alejandro Kirk on the IL, the Jays may need to make a 40-man roster adjustment to add another position player (unless they’re willing to play with a very short bench).  Such MLB-experienced players such as Tyler White, Dilson Herrera, Breyvic Valera, and Richard Urena are at Triple-A but would need to have their contracts selected to the 40-man before being able to join the big league team.

Injuries were naturally a big topic of discussion when Toronto GM Ross Atkins met with the media prior to today’s game.  Speaking to Zwelling, Sportnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (Twitter links) and other reporters, Atkins gave a positive update on right-hander Thomas Hatch, who has yet to pitch this season due to a right elbow impingement.  Hatch is on pace to be activated from the 60-day IL when first eligible, as he is up to three innings of work at a time.  Capable of working as a starter, reliever, or in a swingman role, Hatch could be a valuable asset to Toronto’s pitching staff is he is able to return healthy.

Top prospect Nate Pearson would also naturally be a boon to the rotation if he is able to live up to his potential, but Pearson has dealt with a number of setbacks this year — a groin injury that delayed his season debut to May 9, a rough performance in that first outing, and then a demotion to Triple-A.  Pearson will now miss his next Triple-A start due to a minor shoulder impingement, but Atkins says the Jays “don’t expect him to miss too much time at all.”

With Pearson a question mark and the Blue Jays rotation still in need of help, all eyes have turned to Alek Manoah, whose first two Triple-A starts have resulted in 12 scoreless innings.  Selected 11th overall in the 2019 draft, Manoah was ranked 79th on Keith Law’s preseason top-100 prospects ranking and 83rd on the Baseball Prospectus list, and the right-hander has now slipped into the current top-100 listings of Baseball America (93rd) and MLB Pipeline (98th).

Manoah’s performance has naturally also caught the eye of the Jays front office, as Atkins said “he’s making that [a promotion] very much something that we’re discussing and talking about….The objective and subjective views of how effective he will be at the major league level are all really encouraging.  He absolutely maximized his off-season and maximized Spring Training, and he’s getting absolutely every ounce out of Triple-A baseball right now.”

When Manoah might make his debut is still up in the air.  The 23-year-old did lose a season of proper minor league development in 2020, his time at the alternate training site last season was shortened due to a bout of COVID-19, and Manoah’s two Triple-A appearances are his only games played above the low-A ball level.  As Zwelling noted, however, the fact that the Blue Jays began Manoah’s season at Triple-A rather than Double-A is likely a sign that the team has confidence that Manoah is ready for a somewhat aggressive promotion if he keeps impressing in the upper minors.

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