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Cardinals To Recall Jordan Walker

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The Cardinals are planning to recall top outfield prospect Jordan Walker from Triple-A Memphis, reports Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (Twitter link). He’ll be back in the majors for Friday’s series opener in Pittsburgh. The Cards will presumably announce their corresponding active roster move tomorrow.

Walker returns for a second MLB stint. The 21-year-old broke camp with St. Louis and started in right field on Opening Day. He wasn’t completely overmatched in his first month. Walker made headlines for a 12-game hitting streak early on and hit a roughly league average .274/.321/.397 through 20 contests.

Nevertheless, St. Louis made the decision to send him back to the minors at the end of April. Walker’s defensive marks weren’t good and his solid slash line belied mounting chase and ground-ball rates at the dish. The demotion wasn’t especially alarming considering Walker’s youth and that St. Louis had jumped him directly from Double-A to the majors in the first place.

While the former first-round pick got off to a bit of a slow start in Memphis, he’s turned things on of late. Walker is hitting .267/.376/.433 over his past 23 games, drawing free passes at a robust 11.9% clip against a decent 21.1% strikeout rate. His 44.6% grounder percentage in Triple-A is well shy of the 60.4% rate at which he put the ball on the ground in the majors.

The Cardinals determined he’s ready for another look at the highest level. St. Louis’ outfield has thinned over the past few weeks. Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson both landed on the injured list since Walker was optioned. O’Neill seems without a clear return timetable as he battles lingering back issues.

Utilityman Brendan Donovan has gotten the bulk of the right field work lately but can bounce around the diamond. Primary left fielder Alec Burleson has struggled to a .237/.289/.397 line on the year, including a meager .245/.293/.340 showing in May. The Cardinals are carrying Óscar Mercado on the MLB roster as a depth outfielder but have only given him five starts since selecting his contract two weeks ago. Mercado’s ability to back up Lars Nootbaar in center field gives him more defensive value than Burleson, though the Cards gave Tommy Edman his first career start there earlier in the week.

Walker will surely be in the lineup on a regular basis now that he’s back in the majors, probably most directly impacting Burleson’s playing time. While he’ll again be paid at the MLB minimum rate and collect service time, the option is likely to push back his path to free agency. Walker spent over a month in the minors and won’t get the 172 days on an MLB roster that’d get him a full service year this season.

Unless he earns “bonus” service time by finishing in the top two in NL Rookie of the Year balloting, he won’t be on track to reach free agency until after the 2029 season. If he’s in the majors from here on out, he’d qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player following the ’25 campaign. Future minor league assignments could alter that path, of course. This is the first of three years in which Walker can be optioned.

The Ongoing Cardinals Outfield Battle

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Even though the Cardinals traded away Harrison Bader last summer, they are still dealing with a crowded outfield mix. That’s thanks to the emergence of young players like Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker. Those two joined Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson in the battle for playing time. That’s five guys for three spots, since infielder Nolan Gorman has been taking the designated hitter slot on most days, with Willson Contreras getting a couple of nods there as well when not catching.

The crowding evidently got to be a bit too much, as Walker was surprisingly optioned down to the minors this week. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak recently addressed the move, as relayed by John Denton of MLB.com (Twitter links). Mozeliak said the move was about getting some more consistency from this group, hoping that subtracting one member would make it easier for everyone to get into a good rhythm.

The results of this jockeying for playing time will have consequences for the club in the short term, as they are off to a rough 10-16 start and will need to gain ground in the coming months. There will also be long-term ramifications, since all of those players are still under club control next year. If the Cards find themselves outside the playoff picture in July, they could consider moving someone and still have plenty of options to fill the outfield. And , as we saw last year with the Bader deal, they could make a trade even when they are in contention. Those decisions will surely be based on how the individuals perform in the next few months, so let’s take a look at where things stand now.

Tyler O’Neill

O’Neill is the oldest and most experienced of the bunch, turning 28 in June and having debuted in 2018. He has between four and five years of service time, meaning he can be controlled via arbitration for one more year before reaching free agency after the 2024 season.

He has shown the ability to be an excellent all-around player, especially in 2021. O’Neill hit 34 home runs that year and slashed .286/.352/.560 overall for a wRC+ of 144. He also stole 15 bases and was graded well for his glovework in left field, leading to a tally of 5.6 wins above replacement, per the calculations of FanGraphs. That currently stands out as a career year for O’Neill, who was slowed by injuries last year. He only got into 96 games and had a diminished .228/.308/.392 batting line (101 wRC+). This year, he’s hitting just .256/.318/.385 for a wRC+ of 98.

O’Neill and manager Oli Marmol got in a public spat earlier in the year when the latter accused the former of improper hustle and spoke to the media about it. O’Neill disagreed with the sentiment that he wasn’t giving his all and also didn’t seem to care for the issue being aired so openly. He was benched for one game but has been getting regular playing time since, seeming to suggest there’s no lingering ill will from the dust-up. He got some time in center field earlier in the year but has been back in left for the past couple of weeks.

Some observers have pointed to the fact that Bader was also criticized by Marmol for a lack of hustle last year, just about six weeks before he was flipped to the Yankees, therefore suggesting the writing is on the wall for O’Neill. That’s pure speculation, but O’Neill is the most logical trade candidate since he’s the oldest and closest to free agency. However, dealing him would be selling low unless he can regain some of that excellent form he showed a couple of years ago.

Lars Nootbaar

Nootbaar is in his third major league season but was frequently optioned in the first couple, meaning he’s played just 178 games thus far. He initially hovered around league average at the plate but has taken steps forward over the past year or so, seeming to thrive when he got more regular playing time. Bader went on the IL June 27 of last year with plantar fasciitis, moving Carlson over to center and opening right field for Nootbaar. Bader was then traded before even recovering from that ailment. Since that time, Nootbaar has walked almost as much as he’s been punched out, getting a free pass 17.2% of the time compared to an 18.4% strikeout rate. That’s led to a .244/.373/.478 batting line and a 141 wRC+. His strong results at the plate are backed up by Statcast, who ranked him in the 90th percentile last year in terms of average exit velocity, 80th in hard hit rate and 85th in barrel rate.

That strong work at the plate is accompanied by excellent glovework as well. Nootbaar has played all three outfield positions and has tallied two Outs Above Average, six Defensive Runs Saved and a 6.7 grade from Ultimate Zone Rating. In the comments from Mozeliak linked above, he said Nootbaar will be the regular center fielder going forward.

Nootbaar seems like a solid long-term piece for the Cardinals given his well-rounded contributions. He’s currently 25 years old and has between one and two years of service time. He won’t reach arbitration until after 2024 and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2027. Over the winter, both the Athletics (in Sean Murphy discussions) and Marlins (in Pablo Lopez talks) brought up Nootbaar as a target of interest, but the Cardinals rebuffed those overtures.

Alec Burleson

Unlike O’Neill and Nootbaar, Burleson has fewer dimensions to his game. His defense is generally considered subpar, even when limited to the corners, and Statcast pegs him in the 24th percentile in terms of sprint speed. He’s seen a bit of time at first base, dating back to last season.

The appeal of Burleson is his bat, which has the potential to hit for both contact and power. Outside of a brief debut in High-A in 2021, he’s generally been difficult to strike out both in the majors and the minors. He’s had only 134 major league plate appearances so far but has been punched out at just a 14.2% rate, well below this year’s 23% league average. He’s hit three home runs so far and currently has a line of .236/.295/.444. That’s just slightly above average, translating to a 104 wRC+, but that’s not bad for a player still getting his feet wet in the majors. He hit 20 home runs in 109 Triple-A games last year and slashed .331/.372/.532 (137 wRC+).

Burleson is just 24 years old and has less than a year of service, meaning he won’t qualify for arbitration until after 2025 and isn’t slated for free agency until 2028. He could be a long-term option in the corners for St. Louis, but he isn’t an exact match for their typical M.O. of placing an emphasis on defense.

Dylan Carlson

Carlson was considered one of the top prospects in baseball not too long ago, with Baseball America having him in the top 10 league-wide in 2020 and 2021. He got regular playing time over the past two years and proved himself to be a serviceable player with average-ish hitting and defense. Carlson hit .253/.331/.412 for a wRC+ of 107 over 2021 and 2022, walking and striking out at roughly league average rates. All three of DRS, OAA and UZR considered his glovework average or slightly above.

He’s been the one most squeezed by the logjam so far, only starting 10 of the club’s 26 games. The part-time role hasn’t suited him, as he’s hitting just .250/.308/.333 on the season for a wRC+ of 83. Perhaps he is the player with the most to gain from Walker’s demotion, as he will hopefully get some more trips to the plate and get into a better groove. He’s 24 years old but has between two and three years of service time already. He’s on pace to qualify for arbitration this winter and reach free agency in the 2026-27 offseason.

Jordan Walker

Walker parlayed a hot spring into an Opening Day roster spot despite being just 20 years old, turning 21 in May. He stayed hot to start the season, getting a hit in his first 12 games while slashing .319/.360/.489. He cooled off a bit from there, hitting just .192/.250/.231 since then. That latter line is a tiny sample of eight games, but the club still felt the best decision for everyone involved was for him to get regular at-bats in the minors and to spread his playing time around to the others. Between both of those stretches, he only walked in 3.8% of his trips to the plate.

Walker is still one of the best prospects in the game and will no doubt be back at some point. An injury to one of the other outfielders would quickly make space for him. He was on track to earn a full year of service this year but could wind up shy of that, depending how long he’s down on the farm.

Juan Yepez

Yepez has mashed in the minors over the past few years, hitting .252/.343/.487 in Double-A and .281/.362/.575 in Triple-A. He’s seemingly capable of carrying that over to the big leagues as well, having hit .257/.297/.453 for a wRC+ of 111 in 286 plate appearances. The problem is that he’s not considered a strong runner or defender. He could be a useful bat-first player in a corner spot, but the Cards have Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado at first and third, in addition to the crowded outfield mix. Yepez is 25 years old and still has a couple of option years, meaning the Cards can keep him as a depth piece for quite a while if they so choose.

Moises Gomez

Gomez isn’t considered a great runner or defender, nor does he have strong bat-to-ball skills. His standout tool is his power. Gomez hit 39 home runs last year in 120 games between Double-A and Triple-A, but also struck out in 34.7% of his plate appearances. He was added to the 40-man roster at season’s end to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency but is off to a slow start this year. Through 20 Triple-A games, he’s cut his strikeout rate to 24.7% but has gone deep just once and is walking just 4.7% of the time. His .234/.282/.351 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 58.

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There’s plenty of talent amid these options and it seems entirely possible that a trade will be on the table this summer, whether the Cardinals climb back into contention or not. They could easily move one of these players for some pitching, just like they did with Bader last year, and still have good options for filling out the lineup card every night. The club’s front office has just over three months to decide how to play it.

Cardinals To Select Jordan Walker

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Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak tells reporters, including MLB.com’s John Denton, that top prospect Jordan Walker has made the Opening Day roster in St. Louis. Walker, who is not on the 40-man roster, will require a corresponding move to be added. According to Denton, Mozeliak expects this move to come on Wednesday or Thursday. Outfielder Alec Burleson and left-handers Zack Thompson and Packy Naughton have also made the big league roster, according to Mozeliak.

Walker, 20, is a consensus top prospect in the sport, with MLB.com ranking him as the 4th best in the game. Should Walker finish in the top three of NL Rookie of the Year voting or the top five of NL MVP voting this year, the Cardinals will receive an extra draft pick thanks to Walker’s inclusion on the Opening Day roster.

That’s not out of the realm of possibility for Walker, a career .310/.388/.525 hitter in the minors who has yet to play above the Double-A level in his career. In skipping Triple-A entirely for Walker, the Cardinals are giving the potential superstar a notable vote of confidence. With Walker’s native third base occupied by 2023 NL MVP finalist Nolan Arenado, Walker figures to factor into the club’s outfield and DH mix alongside Burleson, Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill, and Dylan Carlson.

Fellow Top 100 prospect Burleson, meanwhile, struggled in his 2022 big league debut, slashing .188/.264/.271 in 53 plate appearances. With that being said, he dominated to a .905 OPS in 109 games at the Triple-A level last season, leaving plenty of room for a big breakout for the 24 year-old.

Following St. Louis’s decision to option lefty Genesis Cabrera earlier today, it’s of little surprise to see Thompson and Naughton make the roster. Thompson dominated to a 2.08 ERA in 34 2/3 innings for the Cardinals last year, and though Naughton didn’t fare as well with a 4.78 ERA in 32 big league innings, he did dominate in Triple-A last year.

Big Hype Prospects: Luciano, Jung, Burleson, Hence, Naylor

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we bounce between the low and upper minors to check in on a couple handfuls of notable prospects.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Marco Luciano, 20, SS/3B, SFG (A+)
222 PA, 10 HR, .268/.342/.470

Once considered the “next big thing,” Luciano has turned out to be less athletic than originally believed. When he added strength prior to 2021, he lost speed and flexibility. He still has a bright future, but there are a number of questions related to his future position, ability to make contact, and work ethic. Teams can overlook questionable range at shortstop, but Luciano also suffers from an errant arm, making a move down the defensive spectrum more likely. The work ethic concerns seem overblown to me – sometimes players draw negative reviews because they take their failures in stride. Fans, in particular, often equate tantrums with caring and wistful shakes of the head with a lack of care. Scouts too sometimes rush to judgment.

He only has 249 plate appearances this season because he missed over two months with a lower back strain. Since returning on August 4, he’s batting .243/.341/.419 in 85 plate appearances. All told, he’s performed on par with expectations for a 20-year-old top prospect in High-A. His swing is geared for high exit velocity, fly ball contact. He profiles as a future 30-homer threat. Keep an eye on his strikeout rate as he advances into the upper minors next season.

Josh Jung, 24, 3B, TEX (MLB)
(AAA) 106 PA, 6 HR, 1 SB, .273/.321/.525

Listed as a “snub” in last week’s edition of Big Hype Prospects because he wasn’t yet in the Majors, the Rangers have finally called upon their top prospect. Jung was on the cusp of an Opening Day assignment with Texas before an injury held him out until late July. Curiously, he’s actually performed poorly lately. After an initial thrashing of Triple-A pitching, he’s batting just .197/.232/.288 (.300 BABIP) over his last 69 plate appearances. Much of his recent woes can be boiled down to a 1.4 percent walk rate and 36.2 percent strikeout rate, both of which are uncharacteristic.

Jung is a hard contact machine that uses all fields. He generates substantial pull-side power. His overall profile is reminiscent of peak Josh Donaldson – a plus defender who can hit for average and power with a mid-lineup role. Given his ongoing slump, his debut might include a hiccup or two.

Alec Burleson, 23, OF, STL (MLB)
(AAA) 470 PA, 20 HR, 4 SB, .331/.372/.532

With Dylan Carlson on the injured list, the Cardinals get an opportunity to decide if Burleson will be a part of their postseason roster. A 2020 draftee, he raced through the minors without any setbacks. He’s a free-swinger with above-average plate coverage and an ability to use all fields. He’s a below-average runner who might best fit as a designated hitter long term. We might find his aggression is exploited by Major League pitchers. While his swing is often described as uncomplicated or simplistic – a trait usually associated with middling or worse power – Burleson is able to generate plenty of pop. The next step in his development is to improve his swing decisions.

Tink Hence, 20, SP, STL (A)
52.1 IP, 13.93 K/9, 2.58 BB/9, 1.38 ERA

The Cardinals have printed outfielders in recent years, and they’ve historically done well developing pitchers too. Hence has drool-worthy stats in Low-A, though it’s worth noting he’s pitching once every seven days. When he does appear, his outings are brief. He faced 16 batters on September 7 which also happens to be a career-high. He usually sees between 11 and 13 batters. It’s assumed Hence is being handled carefully due to his string-bean frame. He’s listed at 6’1’’ and 175 pounds. The FanGraphs crew compares his appearance to Triston McKenzie (he’s listed 6’5’’ and 165 pounds). For now, we can set workload concerns aside, but he’ll eventually need to work on a five-day schedule and face 20 or more hitters.

Hence wields a fastball and curve that fit the current meta. He works up in the zone with the heater and drops in the curve. It’s worth noting that hitters typically adjust to popular pitching strategies within a couple seasons. Hence might find his approach is less effective in 2025 than similar pitchers are experiencing today. He’s still working to develop a third offering. His changeup remains a work in progress per reports, drawing adjectives ranging from nasty to inconsistent.

Bo Naylor, 22, C, CLE (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 461 PA, 17 HR, 20 SB, .259/.397/.480

Naylor was generally well-regarded as of 2019. After the lost COVID year, he played so poorly in 2021 that some evaluators considered him a bust. Case in point, Baseball America ranked him 59th overall in their August update. When FanGraphs profiled Cleveland’s system in mid-April, Naylor ranked 28th – that’s just among Guardian farm hands.

He responded this season by thriving in Double-A and more than holding his own in Triple-A. The brother of fellow Guardian Josh Naylor, Bo has a discipline-forward approach that includes decent pop and a surprising feel for contact. As a left-handed hitter, he can take advantage of the friendlier aspects of Progressive Field’s park factors. The profile offers shades of former Guardians catching prospect Carlos Santana. Naylor happens to be a plus defender behind the dish, making a move down the defensive spectrum unnecessary. Like Santana, Naylor is liable to combine a poor batting average with a plus on base and slugging percentages. He has above-average foot speed for a catcher.

Five More

Shane Baz, TBR (23): Baz has just 40.1 big league innings split across two seasons so he’s still technically a prospect – and debatably the top pitching prospect. He’s eyeing a late-September or early-October return from an elbow sprain. At his best, he has a potent four-pitch repertoire though he still has room to improve his consistency. If he appears again this season, it will likely be as a high-leverage reliever.

Robert Hassell, WSH (20): A contact of mine casually mentioned a lot of the shine has come off Hassell this season. Despite struggling with the Nationals High-A affiliate, Washington opted to promote Hassell to Double-A based on his larger success with the Padres High-A club. Since arriving in Double-A, he’s batting .221/.310/.312 with a homer and a steal in 87 plate appearances. Personally, I’m starting to get Andrew Benintendi vibes. The swing is “sweet” but the quality of contact is not.

Logan O’Hoppe, LAA (22): O’Hoppe was the standout hitting prospect in the Phillies system heading into the trade deadline. However, Double-A Reading is notoriously hitter-friendly. It was unclear if his breakout was a product of the venue. Fast-forward 101 plate appearances, and it sure seems like O’Hoppe is the real deal. Since joining the Angels, he’s batting .297/.475/.689 with nine home runs and more walks than strikeouts.

Zac Veen, COL (20): Veen thrashed High-A pitching to the tune of .269/.368/.439 with 11 home runs in 400 plate appearances. The carrying trait, however, was his 50 steals in 54 attempts. He earned a promotion to Double-A where he’s made another 108 plate appearances. He’s struggling to adjust to the level – possibly due to fatigue. In 108 plate appearances, he’s batting .196/.269/.258 with one home run and four steals in nine attempts. It’s not super common for 20-year-olds to receive 508 plate appearances. The fatigue explanation passes a smell test.

Noelvi Marte, CIN, (20): It’s been a while since we last checked in on the contentious shortstop. He’s continued to perform well with the Reds, making incremental gains to his plate discipline and contact rates. He’s batting .292/.397/.443 in 126 plate appearances with Cincy’s High-A affiliate. Where he’ll eventually fit in a system that includes the inestimable Elly De La Cruz remains to be seen, but he’s certainly trending towards a long Major League career. Across both franchises, he has 520 plate appearances with a .279/.371/.458 triple-slash, 19 home runs, and 23 steals.

Cardinals Place Dylan Carlson On IL, Select Alec Burleson

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The Cardinals announced a series of roster moves today, placing outfielder Dylan Carlson on the 10-day injured with a left thumb sprain. His spot on the roster has gone to fellow outfielder Alec Burleson. Since Burleson wasn’t previously on the 40-man roster, outfielder Conner Capel has been designated for assignment to open a spot.

Burleson, 23, was selected by the Cardinals 70th overall in the 2020 draft. There were no minor leagues for him to play in that year due to the pandemic, but he took off in 2021. He started in High-A and mashed his way up to Double-A after just 11 games. In 63 games with the Springfield Cardinals, he hit .288/.333/.488, producing a wRC+ of 116. That was enough to get him up to Triple-A for the end of the season, his third level of the year.

While Burleson struggled in his first taste of Triple-A, he’s dominated here in 2022. In 109 games with the Memphis Redbirds, he’s hit 20 home runs while striking out in only 14.3% of his plate appearances. His slash line on the year is .331/.372/.532, leading to a wRC+ of 138.

Thanks to his strong performance in the minors, Burleson has been creeping up prospect lists since his draft. Last year, Baseball America ranked him the #26 prospect in the Cards’ system, before bumping him up to #10 at the start of this year and #4 at the midseason update. BA also considers him the #66 prospect in the entire league.

As for Carlson, it’s unclear when or how he sustained his injury, as he entered last night’s game in the eighth inning as a pinch hitter. The club has not yet provided any information on how long they expect him to be out. He’s hitting .240/.316/.386 for the year, producing a wRC+ of 102. He’s played mostly center field this season but has seen Tyler O’Neill take over the bulk of the playing time up the middle lately. Burleson has mostly played left field in the minors, with a bit of time in right as well. He’ll try to replace Carlson’s bat and take some corner outfield time but likely won’t be an option in center, leaving that spot for O’Neill and Ben DeLuzio.

As for Capel, 25, he was drafted by Cleveland but came to the Cardinals in the 2018 trade that sent Oscar Mercado the other way. He was selected to the big league roster for the first time this June, producing a tepid batting line in a tiny sample of just 19 plate appearances. In 87 Triple-A games, he’s hit .258/.361/.425 for a 112 wRC+. He’s shown strong work at the plate in that stretch, striking out in just 16.4% of his plate appearances while walking in 13.3% of them. He’s also popped 1o homers and stolen 19 bases.

Despite some signs of optimism there, it seems Capel has been nudged out of the plans in St. Louis. Since the trade deadline has passed, the Cards will place him on outright waivers or release waivers in the coming days. Given his full slate of options and limited service time, he could prove to be an intriguing option for the 29 other clubs.

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