Getting a clear picture of the Cardinals’ plans for 2025 has been a bit of a moving target. Multiple reports over the past months indicated the club was looking at a sort of reset year, lowering the payroll as they pivot towards a focus on player development. As such, it seemed fair to expect that a number of veteran players on the roster would be available in trade. In recent weeks, that expectation has been softened, something that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak discussed with Katie Woo of The Athletic this week.
“We have every intention of fielding a good baseball team,” Mozeliak said. “It’s going to have a different profile, but we still have a lot of belief that some of our younger players will take that next step forward. We’re excited about what we have. Now, it is Dec. 5, and things can happen and things can change. But we’re still going into (next season) with optimism that it’ll be a fun baseball team to watch.”
It seems the plan is to walk a bit of a fine line. The Cards are definitely planning to take their foot of the gas pedal a bit, though maybe not to the degree that was initially expected. All signs point to the club spending a bit less on the 2025 roster, but they might just do that by being less aggressive. RosterResource already projects the club about $35MM below last year’s payroll, so the Cards could just avoid signings as opposed to actively looking to move players with notable contracts.
As of a few weeks ago, it seemed fair to expect players like Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Ryan Helsley and others would be available. Helsley is an excellent reliever but is one year away from free agency, making it logical for them to explore trades. The other three are in their mid-30s and making eight-figure salaries. They all have no-trade protection but it was assumed by some that they would prefer to be traded to a competitor, rather than sticking out a rebuilding process.
But it was reported last month that Contreras actually wanted to stay in St. Louis and didn’t want to waive his no-trade clause. Since one of the goals of the 2025 season is for the club to evaluate players including catchers Iván Herrera and Pedro Pagés, Contreras will be moved to first base to replace free agent Paul Goldschmidt. Though the reporting was a bit less explicit with Gray, it seems he also had a desire to stay with the Cards next year.
Recent reporting has also suggested that they will hold onto Helsley. They could eventually trade him at the deadline but there is some risk there. Helsley could get hurt or put up less impressive numbers in the first half of 2025. Holding onto him now also prevents the acquiring team from making a qualifying offer after 2025, potentially reducing his trade value.
All in all, it seems the plan is to do something in between rebuilding and full-throated contending. The Cards are going to give playing time to some less proven players and hope for some internal developments. Woo lists Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, Pagés and Herrera as players who should get long auditions in 2025. That’s notable for Gorman as he seemed to fall out of favor this past year, getting optioned to the minors with Mozeliak seemingly delivering a harsh assessment of his situation at that time.
“Obviously, it’s a game of production up here and at some point, you’ve got to consistently produce, or we have to find someone who can,” Mozeliak said in August. “I mean, that’s what it ultimately comes down to, and these are hard messages to hear. It can be frustrating, but this is what ends up defining you. With our offensive struggles this year, I think you can strictly look at the inability for consistent performance, day in and day out.”
It seems much has changed since that comment, as Mozeliak now tells Woo that they’re hoping for Gorman to get 600 at-bats next year. He seemed to break out in 2023 with 27 home runs and a strong 11.4% walk rate, working around a high strikeout rate of 31.9%. But his walk rate fell to 8.5% in 2024 as his strikeout rate climbed even higher to 37.6%, leading to his aforementioned optioning to the minors.
The Cards have a few of these talented but unproven players and it seems the plan is to give them a chance to step forward. Walker also had a strong 2023 but fell off in 2024. Burleson had a nice breakout in 2024 that he’ll try to maintain. Nootbaar has been limited by injuries and still hasn’t played 120 games in a season. Pagés and Herrera have been stuck in backup duty behind Contreras.
The overarching plan then is to proverbially throw these players into the deep end and see how well they swim. The Cards believe that, with some success from that group and others, they could potentially compete in 2025. That mentality is leading them to hold onto players like Helsley for now and see how things go. Depending on how the players and the team perform in the first half of 2025 could then determine next steps.
The big remaining unknown seems to be Arenado, who seems to be more open to waiving his no-trade clause than Contreras or Gray, but he hasn’t demanded a trade and the Cardinals don’t seem hellbent on moving him. Whether he returns to St. Louis in 2025 could perhaps depend on what kind of offers are put on the table for him. On top of that, players like Erick Fedde, Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas are impending free agents. The club may be open to trading them depending on the offers, but like Helsley, they could also be retained as the club tries to see if contending in 2025 is possible.
