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Padres Notes: Martinez, Morejon, Suarez, Drury, Myers

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The Padres made it to the NLCS for the first time since 1998, but their season came to a close yesterday when they were knocked off by the Phillies in five games. San Diego now turns its attention to the offseason, where they’ll face a decent amount of possible roster turnover around a star-studded core.

San Diego will see Mike Clevinger, Sean Manaea, midseason trade pickups Josh Bell and Brandon Drury and relievers Pierce Johnson and Craig Stammen all hit free agency. A handful of other players have contractual options that could get them to the open market. Each of Nick Martinez, Robert Suarez and Jurickson Profar has the ability to opt out of their contracts this winter. Wil Myers, meanwhile, has a $20MM team option that is certain to be bought out for $1MM.

Martinez and Suarez were two of San Diego’s higher-leverage relievers down the stretch, raising the possibility of a good portion of the Padres bullpen hitting the open market. As part of a broader look at questions facing the roster (a piece worth a read in full), Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune suggests Martinez is likely to test the open market. The right-hander signed a four-year, $25.5MM guarantee last winter following a three-season run in Japan, with the contract affording him an opt-out chance after each season. He’s due $19.5MM over the next three years but would be due a $1.5MM buyout if he opts out, meaning he’s left to decide whether he can top a three-year, $18MM guarantee on the open market.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a detailed look at the situation last month, noting that Martinez’s strong performance out of the bullpen made that an interesting call. Acee indicates Martinez could prioritize finding a rotation opportunity after working in a swing role this year. The 32-year-old started 10 of his first 12 outings but moved to the bullpen full-time in mid-June. At the time of his bullpen transfer, he had a 4.05 ERA with an average 21.9% strikeout rate and a slightly elevated 10.4% walk percentage. Following the move to relief, Martinez worked 46 frames of 2.74 ERA ball. He cut his walk rate to 7.4%, but his strikeout rate dipped a percentage point. Despite lacking power, swing-and-miss stuff, Martinez picked up eight saves and served as a generally versatile bullpen piece for manager Bob Melvin.

Martinez’s ostensible desire for a rotation spot shouldn’t inherently rule him out in San Diego. While he was squeezed out of the mix midseason, the Friars went on to deal MacKenzie Gore in the Juan Soto trade. Coupled with the aforementioned free agencies of Clevinger and Manaea, there should be a fair bit of opportunity behind Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. Acee indicates the Padres don’t want to abandon the possibility of using Adrián Morejón as a starter, however. The southpaw, once one of the game’s top pitching prospects, worked out of the bullpen 26 times this year after missing almost all of last season due to Tommy John surgery. Morejón isn’t guaranteed a season-opening rotation spot next year, but it seems the Friars are open to stretching him back out after a healthy offseason.

Suarez was a more straightforward power bullpen arm. Also a signee out of NPB last offseason, he went on to make 45 regular season appearances despite a two-month absence with right knee inflammation. He posted a 2.27 ERA across 47 2/3 innings, striking out a whopping 31.9% of opponents. Suarez’s control was erratic, but he brandished an upper-90s fastball and was Melvin’s most trusted bullpen arm by season’s end. It concluded on a sour note, with Suarez surrendering the go-ahead homer to Bryce Harper that brought San Diego’s year to a close, but he pitched out of a number of jams earlier in the postseason. With that kind of velocity and swing-and-miss stuff, he’s a lock to bypass the final $5MM on his deal in favor of a $1MM buyout and test free agency.

Things are a bit more settled on the position player side, but president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his staff will have to make a few key decisions there as well. First is whether to retain any of the impending free agents. Acee writes that the team is open to bringing back Drury, who hit eight homers in 46 games as a Padre. He only had a .290 on-base percentage during that time, but he’d posted a .274/.335/.520 showing with 20 homers for the Reds over the season’s first few months. Drury can cover any non-shortstop position on the infield and could serve as a corner outfield option with the team potentially losing Profar and Myers.

For his part, Myers indicated that he’s open to a return to San Diego (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). It certainly won’t be on the $20MM option, but Myers will find a big league deal on a lower base salary this offseason. He’s typically provided the Friars with slightly above-average offense, and that was again the case in 2022. Myers hit .261/.315/.398 over 286 plate appearances. He didn’t offer much against right-handed pitching but he popped six homers in 90 plate appearances against southpaws and carries a career .255/.351/.453 line while holding the platoon advantage.

With Bell’s possible departure, the Friars don’t have an obvious in-house first base option, perhaps opening the door for Myers to return at a lower rate. They could certainly dip into the free agent class there, although Acee notes there’s some support in the organization for playing Jake Cronenworth more frequently at first. Cronenworth is an above-average defensive second baseman, making that something of an odd fit, but San Diego has one of the sport’s most talented infields. Ha-Seong Kim proved himself an everyday player filling in for Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop, while Manny Machado is an MVP candidate at the hot corner.

Tatis didn’t play in 2022 because of injuries and a performance-enhancing drug suspension, but he’ll be back with the club in late April next year. Tatis still has 20 games remaining on his 80-game suspension — he missed 48 regular season contests and 12 playoff games this year — but will be back in the everyday lineup a few weeks into next year. Penciling him back in at shortstop could require kicking Kim to the other side of the second base bag. That’d form one of the sport’s top defensive infields, of particular value with forthcoming limitations on shifting. San Diego has also explored the possibility of playing Tatis in center field while curtailing Trent Grisham’s playing time on the heels of a .184/.284/.341 line. That could again be under consideration, but Tatis has previously expressed his preference for sticking at shortstop.

Juan Soto Rumors: Saturday

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Trade winds are swirling around Juan Soto, as it still isn’t clear if the Nationals will deal the superstar outfielder prior to Tuesday’s 5pm CT trade deadline.  The market continues to change on an hourly basis based on other deals, and certainly based on countless private discussions happening between front office executives around baseball, and yet Soto (MLBTR’s top trade candidate of deadline season) looms over everything.  Certainly, some clubs will want to explore all possibility of acquiring Soto, yet waiting too long could leave that team empty-handed for other trade options if Soto goes elsewhere.

The Padres are widely seen as one of the top contenders to land Soto, and are apparently open to surrendering the type of huge prospect package it will take to get Washington’s attention.  As per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, the Padres are “willing to discuss” such names as C.J. Abrams, Robert Hassell III, and Adrian Morejon with the Nationals.  All three are or have been staples of top-100 prospect lists for the last few years, though Morejon has “graduated” from most prospect lists due to his MLB experience, and MLB Pipeline also removed Abrams from their list due to his 43 big league games played earlier this season.

Since the Nationals are known to be targeting younger, controllable players either already in the majors or on the cusp of their big league debuts, the Padres’ trio would seem to check those boxes.  That said, it is quite likely that the Nats would want even more from the top tier of San Diego’s farm system (or from the active roster) in order to part with Soto, and the Padres could possibly have to up their offer in order to outbid other suitors.

For instance, the Cardinals also have a stockpile of young talent, and have also been mentioned as one of the favorites to land Soto.  Dylan Carlson is a name on Washington’s radar, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the Nats “are fond of” the outfielder.

Carlson is only 23 and has already made a mark in the Show, delivering above-average production at the plate and strong defense (as both a center fielder and right fielder).  The Nationals could be eyeing Carlson as their next outfield cornerstone, as the team would already be fairly certain that he could contribute right away, whereas players like Abrams, Hassell, or Morejon are still unproven at the MLB level.

On paper, the Cardinals would seemingly have the depth to move Carlson as part of a Soto deal, yet that would leave the Cards without a reliable center fielder.  Harrison Bader is still on the 10-day injured list due to plantar fasciitis, and a setback will extend his stint for at least another few weeks, manager Oliver Marmol told Goold and other reporters.  Bader won’t even be out of a protective right boot for another week or two, so while Carlson has capably filled in up the middle, St. Louis could also have to pivot to landing a center fielder in another deal if Carlson was moved.  A makeshift combo of Lars Nootbaar and Tommy Edman in center, for instance, wouldn’t be an ideal option for a would-be contender.

As mentioned, other trades can drastically change the situation for multiple teams, and it appears as though two other potential Soto suitors are no longer involved.  The Rays would’ve been something of an eyebrow-raising team to land Soto, yet the Nationals’ demands were “beyond their tolerance,” Joel Sherman of The New York Post writes.  As such, the Rays eschewed the blockbuster route and instead landed David Peralta from the Diamondbacks earlier today.  Yesterday’s acquisition of Luis Castillo would also seemingly take the Mariners out of the running for Soto, as Seattle dealt away a sizeable chunk of its prospect capital to obtain Castillo from the Reds.

Injury Notes: Padres, Rangers, Rockies

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The Padres placed Mike Clevinger and Adrian Morejon on the COVID injured list, recalling Ray Kerr and Reiss Knehr from Triple-A, per the team. Kerr, 27, will give the Friars a third southpaw out of the bullpen behind closer Taylor Rogers and Tim Hill. Though Clevinger has been starting, Knehr, 25 will probably pitch in relief for now. Knehr has been tagged with a 5.84 ERA across 51 2/3 innings in Triple-A so far this season while making 10 starts and appearing twice in relief. The Padres rotation currently goes six deep, even with Clevinger out. Brent Rooker was also added to the active roster to serve as the 27th man for today’s doubleheader.

  • Rangers outfielder Steele Walker was placed on the COVID injured list, per the team. Zach Reks has been placed on the active roster to take his place. This will be Reks’ third go-round with the Rangers already this summer, though he’s been limited to just 22 plate appearances over nine games. Reks has torn it up for Round Rock, however, slashing .340/.433/.631 in 120 Triple-A plate appearances. Walker was only recently recalled for his big league debut. He’s gone just 1-for-14 at the plate with a pair of walks over five games. His lone hit was a solo shot. Walker, 25, was a former second-round pick of the White Sox, acquired straight-up in the deal for Nomar Mazara in December of 2019.
  • The Rockies have placed southpaw Ty Blach on the 15-day injured list with a left wrist sprain, per the team. Ryan Feltner was recalled from Triple-A to take his roster spot. Justin Lawrence was also added to the active roster to serve as the 27th man for today’s twin bill. Blach, 31, has made 15 appearances on the year (one start) with a 6.61 ERA over 31 1/3 innings.

 

Padres Designate Kyle Tyler For Assignment

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The Padres announced they’ve designated reliever Kyle Tyler for assignment. San Diego also sent righty Pedro Avila — whom the club hadn’t previously indicated was in DFA limbo — outright to Triple-A after he went unclaimed on waivers. The moves clear a pair of 40-man roster vacancies for Adrian Morejón and Michel Báez, each of whom have been reinstated from the 60-day injured list and optioned to the minor leagues.

Tyler is no stranger to the DFA process, as he was something of the 41st man for a few teams earlier this season. The righty was successively designated for assignment and waived by the Angels, Red Sox, Padres and Angels a second time before being claimed off waivers by the Friars (for the second time in as many months) on April 12. At that point, he finally stuck on a 40-man roster for a couple months, but he’ll lose his spot yet again after a rough start to the season at Triple-A El Paso.

The 25-year-old has tossed 16 2/3 innings across 11 outings with the Chihuahuas, posting a 5.51 ERA. Tyler has punched out a solid 26.8% of batters faced but walked an untenable 19.7% of opponents. That marked a rather surprising turn of events for the former 20th-round pick, who had filled up the strike zone for essentially his entire minor league career prior to this season. That track record earned him his first five big league outings with the Halos last season and caught the attention of a few organizations during the first few weeks of this year. Tyler will now be traded or waived yet again in the coming week.

Avila has gotten to the big leagues in three of the past four years, but he’s made just four cumulative appearances. A well-regarded prospect early in his pro career, he’s seen his stock dip since undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2019. He didn’t pitch in 2020 and spent almost all of last season in the upper minors after being non-tendered and re-signed to a minor league deal. San Diego selected him to make a start during last season’s final weekend after falling out of playoff contention, and he’d been on the 40-man roster since then.

He’s spent the bulk of this season as a member of the Chihuahuas, only making two MLB appearances. Avila has a disappointing 8.10 ERA in El Paso, where he’s allowed five homers in 23 1/3 frames and walked 15.6% of batters faced. That rough stretch cost the 25-year-old his roster spot. Avila has never been outrighted in his career and has barely any MLB service time, so he can’t refuse the assignment. He’ll remain in El Paso and try to earn another MLB crack.

Morejón will also be on that roster for the time being, as San Diego has optioned him to Triple-A. A one-time top pitching prospect, the southpaw opened last season in the Friars’ rotation. He required Tommy John surgery after just two starts, though, and the procedure obviously ended his campaign before it really got going. Morejón opened this year on the IL as he continued his recovery, but he’s spent the past few weeks in the minors on a rehab appearance. The 23-year-old has thus far topped out at three innings in a game as the team gradually builds his arm strength back.

Pitchers are allotted up to 30 days for rehab stints (although that can be extended for pitchers recovering from TJS with commissioner’s office approval). Whether the club applied for a lengthier rehab leash or not is unclear, but Morejón will now reassume a 40-man roster spot while the optional assignment provides him something of an unofficial rehab opportunity. The Padres already have a rotation logjam, so they can afford to take their time bringing along a young pitcher who is no doubt still viewed as a key piece of the organizational future.

It’s a nearly identical situation for Báez, who has been optioned to Double-A San Antonio. The 26-year-old reliever saw some MLB action between 2019-20, but he underwent a Tommy John procedure late last spring. He’s been on the IL since then but has made nine minor league appearances as he builds his arm back up.

Padres Finalize Agreement With Nick Martinez

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The Padres announced this evening they’ve signed right-hander Nick Martínez. They agreed to terms with the former NPB starter in the waning hours before the lockout, but the deal wasn’t finalized before the work stoppage.

Martínez’s deal was originally reported as a four-year, $20MM guarantee that included opt-outs after each of the first two seasons. However, the team announced the agreement as a one-year contract with successive player options for 2023, 2024 and 2025 — indicating he can opt-out after any of the first three years. Meanwhile, Dennis Lin of the Athletic reports (on Twitter) that he’s actually guaranteed $25.5MM.

That breaks down as a $2MM signing bonus and a $4MM salary this year followed by successive $6.5MM player options, each of which include buyouts worth $1.5MM. Were Martínez to opt out next winter, he’d be leaving $18MM over three years on the table. For every season in which he starts 20 games, the following year’s salary escalates by $1MM.

Martínez commanding such a strong deal registered as a surprise. Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is familiar with him from their days together with the Rangers organization, however, and the Fordham product is coming off an excellent run in Japan. Over three seasons in NPB split between the Nippon-Ham Fighters and the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, Martínez pitched to a 3.02 ERA.

To clear space on the 40-man roster, San Diego placed left-hander Adrian Morejón on the 60-day injured list. Morejón underwent Tommy John surgery last April and will miss at least the first two months of this season as he continues his recovery.

Padres Select Aaron Northcraft

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The Padres announced that they have selected right-hander Aaron Northcraft from their alternate site, placed injured left-hander Adrian Morejon on the 60-day IL and optioned righty Nabil Crismatt.

This promotion puts Northcraft in position to make his major league debut at the age of 30. Northcraft was a 10th-round pick of the Braves in 2009, but they traded him to the Padres five years later in a December 2014 deal that also sent outfielder Justin Upton to San Diego. The Braves acquired four players in return, including left-hander Max Fried.

Northcraft only lasted in the Padres’ system through 2016, during which he began dealing with elbow problems that sidelined him for a couple of years. He finally returned to pitch professionally with the Mariners in 2019, when he combined for a stingy 2.03 ERA in 40 innings divided among the Low-A, Double-A and Triple-A levels.

Northcraft spent time with the Marlins last year, but the lack of a minor league season stopped him from logging any game action. He returned to the Padres on a minor league deal this past winter.

Adrian Morejon To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Padres left-hander Adrian Morejon will undergo Tommy John surgery, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. He’ll miss the rest of this season and likely a sizable portion of next year as a result.

Morejon last appeared for the Padres on April 11, when he departed a start against the Rangers during the first inning with a left forearm strain. A Tommy John procedure looked like a realistic possibility for the 22-year-old at that point, and that’s unfortunately the route he will have to take.

Morejon, a Cuba native, signed an eyebrow-raising $11MM bonus with the Padres in 2016 and has since ranked among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects on an annual basis. However, Morejon hasn’t yet taken on a significant workload during a professional season, having never thrown more than 65 1/3 innings in an individual year. He combined for 27 1/3 major league innings as a swingman from 2019-20 before earning a rotation spot heading into this season with 14 frames of 3.21 ERA ball and 17 strikeouts in spring training. But Morejon’s 2021 will now end after just two starts and 4 2/3 innings.

The season-long loss of Morejon is obviously a blow to the Padres’ depth, but the team is still in enviable shape in its rotation. Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack and Ryan Weathers are their top options in the majors, and elite prospect MacKenzie Gore could debut sometime this season.

Padres’ Adrian Morejon Placed On IL Due To Left Forearm Strain

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TODAY: Morejón has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a left forearm strain.  The Padres recalled righty Nabil Crismatt from the alternate training site to take Morejon’s spot on the active roster.

APRIL 11: Adrián Morejón left his start against the Rangers this afternoon in the first inning. The young left-hander has a forearm/elbow strain in his throwing arm, the Padres later told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune).

That’s an ominous sounding diagnosis, as forearm strains are often a precursor to Tommy John surgery. There’s no indication at this point Morejón will need to undergo that (or any other) procedure, but it seems he’ll require an injured list stint at the very least. Morejón, who broke into the majors as a swingman over the past two years, began this season as San Diego’s fifth starter.

While Morejón has only managed a 6.03 ERA over his first 31.1 MLB innings, a deeper look shows plenty more promise. The former high-profile international signee has been one of the game’s top prospects over the last four years, entering the season as Baseball America’s #75 overall farmhand. While Morejón has given up far too many home runs in his brief big league time, he’s also demonstrated an ability to miss bats and command the strike zone. His 26.1% strikeout rate, 12% swinging strike rate and 5.8% walk percentage are all better than league average, no small feat for a player who just turned 22 years old.

Should Morejón miss time, the Friars could turn to a handful of other young arms in his rotation spot until Dinelson Lamet is ready to return from injury. Top prospect MacKenzie Gore is widely expected to debut at some point in 2021, while former top ten pick Ryan Weathers already made his MLB debut and has been working out of the bullpen this year. Jordan Humphreys, whom the Padres claimed off waivers last month, is among the other starting pitcher options on the 40-man roster.

Quick Hits: Padres, Reds, Yankees

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Dinelson Lamet will not be ready to join the opening day rotation, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell (via Twitter). On the plus side, he will get his first Cactus League start on Wednesday. That should get him on track to join the rotation at some point in April. The Padres have plenty of depth to work around Lamet’s absence, especially because of the delayed Triple-A season. In fact, slow-playing Lamet’s return not only benefits the right-hander, but it opens an opportunity for Adrian Morejon to get a start or two before the Triple-A season begins. Elsewhere around the game…

  • Reds owner Bob Castellini spoke recently with Paul Daugherty on the Reds Beat Podcast about a number of topics, including the Reds chances to win the National League Central. Castellini sees a division that the Reds can win. Castellini also said that he never expected that the Reds could be players for Trevor Bauer in free agency. He also gave the team’s reasoning for moving some key bullpen pieces this winter, “We have no idea what the financial aspects of this season is going to be — before, during or after. We have at least two very fine relievers that are possible closers: Sims and Garrett. Maybe even more. For instance, if Michael Lorenzen doesn’t start, he’s another very top reliever. We have five left-handed relievers. We are not trying to understand what’s going to happen financially this year, but we wanted to … keep a little in reserve in case we needed it when we needed it. We feel like our bullpen’s going to be all right. Better than all right.”
  • The assumption for the past few weeks has been that the Yankees are trying to decide between Jay Bruce and Mike Tauchman for their final bench spot. The latest from Andy Martino of sny.tv suggests that both might be in a position to make the opening day roster. Rather than DFA Tauchman and risk losing him to waivers, the Yankees are considering optioning infielder Tyler Wade instead. The Yankees have started trying out Gio Urshela at shortstop should they need him to serve as their reserve infielder in an emergency basis. Who, exactly, would step in for Urshela at third in that circumstance isn’t entirely clear. In the unlikely event that Bruce and Tauchman both made the team, Kyle Higashioka and Brett Gardner would make up the rest of the bench. Presumably, Wade will need to be on this roster sooner rather than later, even if the Yankees use his option to give some extra time to the Bruce vs. Tauchman debate.

MLBTR Polls: Padres Versus Blue Jays Bullpen Showdown

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The Toronto Blue Jays uncharacteristically spent much of the offseason in the spotlight, exhausting their Rolodex to add talent in free agency. As a result, their lineup, to borrow a phrase, is in the best shape of its life. Yet, doubts about their status as contenders prevail, largely because of a perceived lack of high-end firepower in the rotation. They brought Robbie Ray back, but otherwise added only Steven Matz coming off a disastrous season in New York. Though Matz has impressed so far, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, the rotation anxiety is warranted. Arguably, however, the bullpen poses a greater threat to the Jays as they attempt to unseat the Rays and Yankees atop the American League East.

GM Ross Atkins landed stud closer Kirby Yates in free agency, and despite just two appearances this spring, they’re ready to commit to the former Padre as their closer, writes Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star. There was little doubt, though the 34-year-old is hardly unblemished. He made just six appearances last year before undergoing surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. Thus, he’s not likely to shoulder a workhorse burden as a 70-80 inning arm out of the pen. So while the glory and the title will belong to Yates, the responsibility of holding leads weighs just as heavily on arms like Jordan Romano, Rafael Dolis, Tyler Chatwood and David Phelps.

Romano burst onto the scene as a legitimate weapon with a 1.23 ERA and 36.8 percent strikeout rate in 2020, while Rafael Dolis returned stateside for the first time since 2013 to post an equally impressive 1.50 ERA and 31.0 percent strikeout rate. Both had FIPs roughly a run and a half higher than their ERAs, however, and could be in line for at least a touch of regression in 2021. Newcomers Chatwood and Phelps are pro arms, but they lack the pedigree of high-leverage, first-division bullpen stalwarts.

Julian Merryweather has some potential to pop as a multi-inning option. The Blue Jays aim to get the 29-year-old right-hander around 100 total innings. He’s 29 years old with only 13 career innings in the Majors, but he’s long been an intriguing talent. Armed with a fastball that averages close to 97 mph, Merryweather is at least worth watching as a potential difference-maker. The Jays hoped Tom Hatch might be another sleeper, but they await a status update on elbow inflammation, per Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter).

From the left side, Francisco Liriano, Ryan Borucki, and Anthony Kay are the most likely to make the roster. The 37-year-old Liriano has been in the Majors since 2005, but the 3.47 ERA he posted last season in Pittsburgh was his best ERA or FIP since his first Pirates’ tenure in 2015. Kay has a higher ceiling, but he has yet to establish himself at the big-league level.

On the whole, the Blue Jays very much require Yates to actualize as the guy who locked down 53 saves with a 1.67 ERA/1.93 FIP for the Padres from 2018-19. If he doesn’t return to that form, the bottom could fall out for this group; a rudderless unit is prone to spiral.

Speaking of Yates’ former club, the Padres, too, are working to establish a new pecking order at the back end of the bullpen. Yates left town, but so did his replacement Trevor Rosenthal. The Padres exported another potential closer in Andres Munoz to the Mariners last August. Luis Patiño could have been used out of the bullpen as well, had he not been included in the Blake Snell deal.

Unlike the Blue Jays, however, the Padres have made repeated efforts to replenish their bullpen reserves with veteran, battle-tested arms. While keeping Craig Stammen in the fold, the Padres added Drew Pomeranz and Pierce Johnson in free agency last winter. They supplemented that crew with free agent additions Mark Melancon and Keone Kela this year. President of Baseball Ops and GM A.J. Preller didn’t stop there, however. He exhausted the trade market as well, netting Tim Hill from the Royals and Emilio Pagan from the Rays prior to 2020. Then, in the deal that sent Munoz to the Mariners, Preller acquired Dan Altavilla and Austin Adams, the latter of whom continues to work his way back from injury. Even non-roster invitee Nabil Crismatt has impressed so far this spring.

Should that deep pool of arms prove insufficient, the Padres can fall back on their depth of prospect arms like MacKenzie Gore, Ryan Weathers, Adrian Morejon, Michel Baez, and others. For now, Morejon looks like he’ll start the year in the rotation, notes Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, but roles are certain to change throughout the season.

On a roster that includes 282 career saves, it’s Pagan who appears closest to nabbing the title of closer, writes Acee. Pagan had a difficult 2020, but the team believes right arm pain was a significant mitigating factor in his 4.50 ERA/4.69 FIP. He saved just two games last year, but he is only a year removed from locking down 20 saves for the Rays. He has averaged seven holds per season over the last four.

Granted, Pagan’s fastball velocity was down from 95.5 mph in 2019 to 94.5 mph in 2020. Even dropping velocity, his high-spin four-seamer showed elite vertical rise. He’ll weaponize it up in the zone, contrasting with his cutter, which zags where the fastball zigs.

Bottom line, the Blue Jays and Padres both field strong relief units – but both can reasonably chart a path to future adversity, though differently so. While Pagan isn’t the most experienced arm in the Padres’ pen – that would be Melancon with his 205 career saves – he’s certainly capable closing games. If not, the Padres have no shortage of alternatives, even with the threat of injury looming. The counterpoint: as they say in football, a team with three quarterbacks has none. For the Blue Jays, Yates won’t have nearly as much internal competition breathing down his neck, but that also means less of a safety net. The Jays don’t boast the diversity of options the Padres do –  what they have is three arms in Yates, Romano, and Dolis who posted sub-2.00 ERA’s in their last full season.

Different approaches, but the same goal: preserve leads and win enough ballgames to make the playoffs and contend for a title. Which bullpen do you trust more? What grade would you give each bullpen heading into 2021? Lastly, in a draft for 2021 comprised only of the veterans in the Padres ’and Blue Jays’ bullpens, I’m curious know what who MLBTR readers trust the most. Between both teams, who is the guy you’d want closing games on a contender?

(links for app users: poll 1, poll 2, poll 3, poll 4)

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