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Adley Rutschman

Orioles Face September Call-Up Decisions For Multiple Top Prospects

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The Orioles – the surprise of the 2022 season – have some decisions to make about their September roster. The biggest decisions center on top prospects Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, and Gunnar Henderson, the 56th, 4th, and top-ranked prospects in the game, per Baseball America.

Hall and Henderson are under consideration to join the big league club when the rosters expand, and perhaps sooner, so says General Manager Mike Elias, tweets Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun. The plan has been for Hall to win the right to join the bullpen in September when rosters expand, but the evaluation process is dynamic, and nothing is guaranteed for the southpaw, who made his debut earlier this season. (It’s worth noting that, regardless of what happens this year, the plan remains for Hall to join the rotation next year.)

Fans are certainly eager to see this cluster of high-ceiling prospects in action, but they can put at least a modicum of trust in the process, as compared to seasons past. With the new CBA, the Orioles are freed from some of the service time concerns that have hampered clubs’ decision-making under the prior collective bargaining agreement. With less than 45 service days remaining in the season, Baltimore has no service reasons to keep Henderson or Hall in the minors any longer, notes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. If they feel the pair can help the big league club as they make a push for the playoffs, we should see them soon.

For Rodriguez, the issue is more a question of health than MLB readiness. He has yet to begin a rehab assignment as he recovers from a lat injury. Per Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com, Elias said, “I’m almost positive that we’re going to see him in real game action before the season’s over. As with any rehab assignment, we’ll start him in the lower minors and then we’ll get him back, hopefully, to the level in which he got injured, and we’ll take it from there.”

Of course, Elias has more to think about than just the individual development of each of these high flyers. With the team unexpectantly pushing for a playoff spot, the Orioles should prioritize fielding the best team possible. Thrusting a young player into a playoff chase for a team that’s been so far from contention for so long is no small decision, however. Suddenly, the lights are bright in Baltimore. Elias must weigh the current needs of the team against the developmental hurdles in front of Henderson, Hall, and Rodriguez. Given the process and plan that Elias has instilled in this organization, he’s likely to want to maintain the long view, even amidst a playoff race.

For now, Orioles fans will have to content themselves with watching new face-of-the-franchise Adley Rutschman lead this team. Thus far, Rutschman has done everything promised to keep this Cinderella squad in the hunt. The 24-year-old backstop has slashed .253/.363/.442 with eight home runs across 320 plate appearances. Those numbers are 34 percent better than average, as evidenced by a 134 wRC+, which isn’t just remarkable for a catcher, or for a rookie, but for anyone in spikes.

Maybe this will be the new normal for Baltimore, but especially in the AL East, where the competition will be top-shelf year after year, each opportunity for postseason play is precious. If nothing else, August/September baseball should matter in a way that Baltimore fans haven’t seen since the days of Buck Showalter, Manny Machado, and Zack Britton. If the kids come to play, all the better.

Big Hype Prospects: Rutschman, Carroll, Yorke, Peraza, Tovar

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This week, we touch on a couple impending prospect graduates and look ahead for potential future promotions.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Adley Rutschman, 24, C, BAL (MLB)

129 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .220/.287/.407

Rutschman’s prospect eligibility will officially expire with his next plate appearance. In a recent fantasy chat, I received a question about his disappointing performance to date. Contrary to that framing, I’ve found his play to be highly encouraging even if he hasn’t immediately incinerated all competition. His current triple-slash is good for a 96 wRC+. That’s only four percent worse than the average Major Leaguer. This season, there are only 18 catchers with a better wRC+ and at least 100 plate appearances. Rutschman is sandwiched between Sean Murphy and Daulton Varsho. He’s ahead of a slumping J.T. Realmuto. This is not a bad way to debut.

Moreover, he’s performed well in every facet of the game. Even his baserunning has contributed positively. His strikeout rate is better than league average. He swings at considerably fewer pitches out of the zone than the average hitter. He swings more often in-zone. His exit velocities are above average. His launch angle is a tad steep at present, a symptom of a couple extra infield flies. He hasn’t had issues with those in the past and will probably adjust. His current .253 BABIP has room to expand northwards, and his strikeouts could decline below his already-good rate.

Rutschman never projected as a Trout-ian hitter so it’s unfair to have expected more from his first 129 plate appearances. His value to the Orioles comes from a well-rounded skill set that lacks for notable weaknesses at a famously light-hitting position.

Corbin Carroll, 21, SS, SDP (AA)

277 PA, 16 HR, 20 SB, .313/.430/.643

Few players are more overdue for a promotion than Carroll. Diamondbacks personnel are on the record as stating he won’t skip Triple-A like Braves prospect Michael Harris. That makes sense. The Braves called upon Harris to support their title defense. The Diamondbacks are fading fast in their Wild Card chase. Barring a couple miracle weeks, they’re on their way to selling at the trade deadline. There’s no urgency to bring Carroll to Chase Field this season.

Carroll is currently on the injured list with an undisclosed injury. He finished June with a .366/.452/.704 slash in 84 plate appearances. For those hoping to see Carroll in the Majors this season, multiple regulars might need to be cleared out of the way. Arizona has excellent outfield depth in the upper minors. They’ve been frantically assessing the likes of Jake McCarthy, Cooper Hummel, and Pavin Smith to determine which will support the future outfield of Carroll, Varsho, and Alek Thomas and which should be expended.

Nick Yorke, 20, 2B, (A+)

198 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .235/.308/.346

Some observers mocked the Red Sox when they selected Yorke in the first round of the 2020 draft. He proceeded to have a truly excellent 2021 campaign split between Low- and High-A. He returned to High-A this spring for what many hoped would be a brief stint. Instead, he appears to have stalled.

Part of the issue is health-based. A case of turf-toe held him out for most of a month. He returned on June 21 and has looked rusty since – .179/.258/.286 with a 38.7 percent strikeout rate in 31 plate appearances. Scouting reports tend to be complementary of Yorke’s gamesmanship, believing he’ll play well beyond what can only be described as ordinary scouting tools.

Based solely on his performance data, my theory is he attempted to sell out for more power this season. His pulled contact rate increased sharply as did his swinging strike rates. It could also be a simple matter of better pitching in the low minors this season. Pitching inventories were completely exhausted last year due to many clubs carefully managing their best arms on the heels of the lost COVID season. Regardless of explanation, Yorke’s reputation as a grinder with a good baseball IQ suggests he should overcome this temporary setback. He’s still on pace to be one of the youngest players in Double-A later this season.

Oswald Peraza, 22, SS, NYY (AAA)

249 PA, 9 HR, 16 SB, .240/.309/.404

There’s a certain tyranny to developmental expectations these days. Peraza razed High-A in 2021 then performed well-enough in Double-A to earn a brief call-up to Triple-A. The Yankees returned him to Triple-A at the start of this season, but it might have been more appropriate to continue his development in Double-A. His plate approach could use refinement. He appears to have the raw tools and judgment to be disciplined but instead errs on the side of aggression. His swing is balanced and covers the zone well, especially low-to-high. I perceive some potential for big league pitchers to successfully nibble the outer edge against him, but that’s just me editorializing. I haven’t seen that mentioned in any scouting reports.

Peraza has a high-floor approach as a defensively capable shortstop with sufficient contact skills to keep his head above water. He’s also on the 40-man roster and might be the only plausible option to fill in if Gleyber Torres or Isiah Kiner-Falefa ever need an extended absence.

Ezequiel Tovar, 20, SS, COL (AA)

295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Entering this season, scouting reports focused on Tovar’s defensive prowess while downplaying his potential to hit for power. FanGraphs went so far as to comp him to a “right-handed Nicky Lopez.” The minor league stats aren’t really matching those paltry expectations.

Last season, Tovar delivered 11 home runs in 326 Low-A plate appearances. It’s uncommon for 19-year-olds to deliver a home run every 30 plate appearances – even the ones we think will one day hit for power. As you can see, he’s performing similarly in Double-A this season as one of the youngest players in the league. He currently leads the Eastern League in batting average and ranks fourth in wOBA (Gunnar Henderson still qualifies for the lead).

The main critique of Tovar is his willingness to expand the strike zone. This leads to a low walk rate, too many swinging strikes, and, as he advances, risk of weak contact on balls outside the zone. The other side of the coin is this – he expands the zone because he’s talented enough to do so. The right adjustments could unlock an incredible outcome – and another elite shortstop for the Rockies franchise.

Five More

Triston Casas, BOS (22): An ankle injury has kept Casas out of action since mid-May. He might have missed a chance to squeeze onto the big league roster. Presently, Bobby Dalbec and Franchy Cordero are performing decently as a first base platoon, but there was a window when Dalbec looked to have fallen out of favor. Casas has resumed fielding work and hitting off a tee. He should progress to game scenarios soon.

DL Hall, BAL (23): The good news for Hall is he’s pitching deeper into his outings. He’s averaged 21 batters faced over his last four starts which is right on par with the workload handled by short-burst starters in the Majors. The bad news is, in those four starts, he’s allowed 16 runs (11 earned) over just 16.2 innings. The two most recent outings – both against the Phillies affiliate – are to blame. He issued 10 walks against only five strikeouts in those appearances. Walks (6.57 BB/9) have been a season-long issue.

Michael Harris, ATL (21): Like Rutschman, this could be Harris’ last episode of BHP as a prospect-eligible player. He’s already at 118 plate appearances and should surpass the 130-plate appearance rookie-threshold by the end of the weekend. His early success (139 wRC+) comes with a few red flags. He’s needed a .402 BABIP and a hyperaggressive approach to overcome an elevated 14.9 percent swinging strike rate. Projection systems believe he’ll regress to slightly below league average as a hitter.

Ivan Herrera, STL (22): The heir apparent to Yadier Molina, Herrera has seen semi-regular action in the Majors while Molina is on the mend from a knee injury. His first taste of the Majors hasn’t gone well yet. He has just two hits, two walks, and seven strikeouts in 18 plate appearances. However, he hit well in Triple-A (.291/.388/.436) and figures to settle in as a plus-defender with a knack for barreled, low-angle contact.

Josh Smith, TEX (24): A key component of the Joey Gallo trade, Smith recently returned from the injured list and has held his own in the Majors. He’s batting an OBP-centric .258/.439/.290. He has a similar hit tool and plate discipline to Rays utility man Taylor Walls with a little more built-in power. He gives every indication of becoming at least a league average hitter who can man most positions.



Orioles Promote Adley Rutschman

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The Orioles announced that they have selected the contract of top prospect Adley Rutschman. Anthony Bemboom has been designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Of course, this is a day that baseball fans in Baltimore and elsewhere have been looking forward to for quite some time. Even before he was a member of the Orioles organization, Rutschman was tantalizing the baseball world with his performance at Oregon State, shooting up draft boards and considered by many to be the top player available in the 2019 draft. Baseball America, for instance, gave him the #1 slot that year, with their report noting that the switch-hitting catcher had essentially every skill necessary to succeed going forward. Hitting for average, hitting for power, taking walks, strong arm, good receiving and blocking, he had all the tools except speed, which is hardly surprising for a catcher. “He is the best catching prospect since Buster Posey in 2008 and Matt Wieters in 2007,” their report concluded.

Although there were reports that the O’s were considering other players with the first overall selection in the 2019 draft, such as Bobby Witt Jr., Andrew Vaughn and JJ Bleday, it never seemed like there was much chance of anyone usurping Rutschman. When the big day finally rolled around, Rutschman was indeed the first player off the board.

Due to the struggles of the big league club, Rutschman instantly became the light at the end of the tunnel for Baltimore fans. The Orioles finished last in the AL East in both 2017 and 2018, and were in the process of repeating that feat when Rutschman was drafted in 2019. They somehow slipped past the Red Sox and into fourth place in the shortened 2020 season, but were back down in the basement in 2021, and also posted the worst record in baseball again (tied with the Diamondbacks). That means they have the first overall selection in the draft yet again this summer. With nothing inspiring happening at the big league level, all hopes were pinned on the stars in the farm system that would make up the next great Orioles team, with Rutschman being front and center.

Baseball America ranked Rutschman the fifth-best prospect in all of baseball in 2021, then bumping him up to #2 last year and #1 this year. He’s also considered the best prospect in baseball by FanGraphs, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniels, and The Athletic’s Keith Law.

It’s been an atypical rise through the minors for the 24-year-old. It started out normal enough, with Rutschman getting into 37 games in the lower levels of the Orioles’ system in the months after the draft. But the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues in 2020, meaning he wasn’t able to play in any official organized games. But that missed season didn’t slow him down any, as his 2021 proved the hype was for real. In 123 games between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit 23 home runs and produced an overall batting line of .285/.397/.502, walking at a 14.5% rate and striking out only 16.6% of the time. That all adds up to a wRC+ of 144, or 44% better than league average.

The Orioles did little to block his path to the big leagues this offseason. The catchers who got playing time behind the plate in 2021 were all jettisoned from the roster. Pedro Severino, Austin Wynns and Nick Ciuffo were all outrighted at season’s end and Chance Sisco was claimed off waivers by the Mets. There was a time in the offseason that the club actually had no catchers on the 40-man roster, although they eventually signed Robinson Chirinos to be in the mix.

Once the new collective bargaining agreement was agreed to and the lockout ended in March, it seemed there was a chance Rutschman could crack the Opening Day roster. The new CBA featured incentives to try and discourage teams from holding their best prospects down in the minors at the beginning of a season in order to manipulate their service time and gain an extra year of control over their services. Unfortunately, Rutschman suffered a triceps strain in mid-March that put him on the shelf for a few weeks, ending any chance of him being ready for the season opener. After recuperating from that injury, he made his 2022 debut in the minors on April 26 and has spent the past four weeks getting back into game shape. In 19 games this year across three different levels, he’s hitting .309/.427/.515, 159 wRC+, walking in 13.4% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 8.5% of them.

There are about 137 days remaining in the season, meaning he will be unable to accrue the 172 days necessary to count as a full year. There is a provision in the new CBA that grants a full year of service time to the top two finishers in Rookie of the Year voting, though it will be difficult for Rutschman to take that path now, given that his competitors in that race have a six-week headstart on him. Jeremy Pena has already produced 1.8 fWAR, while other prominent rookies like Bobby Witt Jr. and Julio Rodriguez have 0.8 fWAR during their first MLB seasons.

Assuming Rutschman isn’t able to catch up and finishes this season with less than a year of service time, the O’s will control his services through the 2028 season, though he does have a very good shot at qualifying for arbitration after the 2024 season as a Super Two player. (The Super Two cutoff moves from year to year but has only been above 2.137 three times since 2009, with the last instance coming back in 2012.) Now that he’s reached the big time, the club will be hoping that he and the other prospects that are still to come will help the Orioles start turning the page from rebuilding to competing over those coming years.

With Rutschman injured to start the year, the club selected Bemboom’s contract, pairing him with Chirinos as the club’s catching duo. In 22 games on the year, he’s hit a meager .115/.207/.212. Since he’s out of options, the club had little choice but to designate him for assignment in order to make room for their star prospect. Bemboom will likely hit the waiver wire in the coming days and see if there’s another club in the league that’s interested in his services.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Orioles To Promote Adley Rutschman, DL Hall To Triple-A

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The Orioles are planning to promote two of their top prospects to Triple-A, as The Baltimore Sun’s Andy Kostka reports (Twitter link) that catcher Adley Rutschman and left-hander DL Hall will be on their way to the team’s top minor league affiliate.

Had it not been for a triceps strain suffered during Spring Training, it is quite likely Rutschman would’ve already been in the majors by now, perhaps even as early as Opening Day.  Rutschman already hit .312/.405/.490 over 185 plate appearances with Triple-A Norfolk last season, and he doesn’t seem to have much left to prove in the minors.  Even over 24 PA at the Single-A and Double-A levels thus far, Rutschman has a whopping 1.167 OPS.

Arguably the top prospect in all of baseball, Rutschman has been tabbed for a pretty quick ascension to the majors basically ever since Baltimore made him the first overall pick of the 2019 draft.  Considered both an outstanding hitter and defender, Rutschman is the crown jewel of the Orioles’ rebuilding plan, and he is widely seen as a star in the making.  It seems probable that Rutschman’s MLB debut will take place before May is over, and it might even just be a matter of days if the young catcher continues to tear up Triple-A pitching.

Hall was the 21st overall pick of the 2017 draft, and he has battled some injury problems throughout his pro career, including a stress reaction in his throwing elbow that limited him to 31 2/3 innings last season.  The Orioles were somewhat cautious with Hall to begin the season, but moved him to Double-A after a single outing in high-A ball, and Hall is now heading for Triple-A after only one outing for Double-A Bowie (that start came today, with Hall allowing two runs over 3 2/3 innings).  The focus might still be on getting Hall fully ramped-up, so it remains to be seen if he could be on Baltimore’s radar as a late-season call-up before the 2022 season is out.

Adley Rutschman Shut Down 2-3 Weeks Due To Triceps Strain

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Orioles catching prospect Adley Rutschman recently suffered a right triceps strain, the team informed reporters (including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). The club is shutting him down from activity for the next two to three weeks.

With the MLB season set to begin in 22 days, it seems as if the injury will keep Rutschman from being ready for Opening Day. He presumably won’t jump right back into game action once he’s again cleared to begin baseball activities. Getting him back up to game speed could take some time, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him open the year on the injured list.

Rutschman is the sport’s most promising farmhand in the estimation of each of Baseball America, FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline and The Athletic. There’s no indication the injury poses a long-term concern, but the O’s will surely be cautious with a player they envision as a central piece of the future.

That’s all the more true because the injury could give the team a justification for keeping Rutschman in the minor leagues for the first few weeks. The 24-year-old is not yet on the 40-man roster, meaning he’d go on the minor league injured list if an IL stint is ultimately required. Rutschman wouldn’t accrue major league pay or service time for any time spent on the MiLB IL. The front office is obviously keenly aware that keeping him in the minor leagues for an extra couple of weeks could delay his path to free agency until the 2028-29 offseason.

Given those service time considerations, it seemed unlikely the rebuilding Orioles would break camp with Rutschman even were he healthy. Yet the injury could provide them some cover against backlash that may have arisen from the fanbase for holding him down to start the year, akin to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Spring Training injury back in 2019. It’s hard to argue Rutschman isn’t ready for the big leagues on merit after he combined for a .285/.397/.502 line between Double-A and Triple-A last season.

The new collective bargaining agreement made some efforts to deter service time manipulation. Teams are eligible to receive extra draft choices for carrying players who later go to win major awards on their Opening Day rosters. The top two finishers in Rookie of the Year voting in each league will “earn” a full year of service time no matter how many days they spend on the active roster, so Rutschman could still play his way into a full season of service even if he doesn’t break camp. At present, Robinson Chirinos looks likely to open the year behind the plate for manager Brandon Hyde.

Extension Candidate: Adley Rutschman

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Within the last four years, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Evan White, and Scott Kingery all signed their first multi-year Major League contracts before even debuting in the Show, as clubs began to increasingly explore the idea of the “pre-career” extension.  The logic is simple — if a team thinks it has a can’t-miss prospect, signing that prospect to an extension before his service clock begins can give the team both cost-certainty over the player’s arbitration years, as well as control over at least a few free agent years via club options.

Robert’s six-year, $50MM pact with the White Sox (that could be an eight-year, $88MM deal if Chicago exercises a pair of club options) in January 2020 represents the high-water mark for pre-career deals, yet it is worth noting that the Astros were something of a pioneer with this tactic.  Jon Singleton signed a five-year, $10MM contract in June 2014 before playing his first MLB game, and Houston also notably explored such a contract with George Springer prior to the future All-Star’s big league debut.  This period overlaps with Mike Elias’ time (2012-18) in the Astros’ front office, and now that Elias has since moved on to run his own team as the Orioles’ executive VP and general manager, it is worth wondering if Elias might attempt locking up his own blue-chip prospect.

Adley Rutschman is widely expected to not only make his MLB debut in 2022, but also get the bulk of playing time as Baltimore’s starting catcher.  Jacob Nottingham and Anthony Bemboom were recently signed to minors deals to provide at least some Major League experience in the team’s catching ranks, but either will just be a placeholder until Rutschman gets the call to the big leagues.  Whether this debut happens on Opening Day or a few weeks into April may hinge on whether or not the service-time manipulation issue is addressed in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, but an extension for Rutschman would make that question moot, and guarantee that Baltimore fans will get to see Rutschman as soon as possible.

The first overall pick of the 2019 draft, Rutschman has done nothing but reinforce that pedigree during his brief pro career.  Rutschman already received two promotions up the ladder (to A-ball) in his first season in 2019, and after working out at the Orioles’ alternate training site in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season, he tore up the farm system in 2021.  The catcher hit .285/.397/.502 with 23 home runs over 543 combined plate appearances with Double-A Bowie (358 PA) and Triple-A Norfolk (185 PA).

An argument can be made that Rutschman could use a bit more seasoning at the Triple-A level, particularly since he’ll be taking over a position that requires so much extra work in terms of pregame preparation and working with pitchers.  However, as noted in Baseball America’s scouting report, Rutschman may be a bit ahead of the curve in this respect, due to his time spent with veteran pitchers, catchers, and Major League coaches at the 2020 alternate training site.  Plus, Rutschman was already seen as a strong defender even in his college days at Oregon State, and BA now gives him a strong 60 grade on the 20-80 scouting scale (to go along with an eye-popping three 70 grades in hitting, power, and throwing arm.)  Both BA and MLB Pipeline rate Rutschman as the best prospect in all of baseball.

In short, Rutschman seems like the kind of cornerstone prospect that any team would covet, especially an Orioles club that has been grinding through a top-to-bottom rebuild during Elias’ entire tenure.  The O’s already see Rutschman as the next face of the franchise, and an extension would only cement that status.  Given that the Orioles have almost literally no money on the books beyond the 2022 season, there’s plenty of payroll space to commit to a hefty contract for the burgeoning star.

For Rutschman and other star prospects presented with pre-career extensions, the question is simple.  Does the player feel comfortable in taking a big payday now and locking in at least one eight-figure fortune from his baseball career, or does the player feel like betting on himself to perform as expected in the majors?  The latter route carries more risk, but potentially sets the player up for even more money down the road, either through rising arbitration salaries, bigger free agent money once he hits the open market, or even a later extension with his current team.

From a pure dollars perspective, Rutschman has already achieved some solid financial security, via his $8.1MM signing bonus from the draft.  This isn’t necessarily an indicator that he would be less open to an extension — Robert, for instance, already had a $26MM international signing bonus in the bank prior to his extension with the White Sox.

The added wrinkle in this case is Rutschman’s position.  No catcher has ever signed a pre-career extension — expanding the list to players with less than a year of service time, the Royals’ February 2012 deal with Salvador Perez represents the earliest pact ever given to a backstop.  Needless to say, Rutschman won’t be signing for a contract similar to Perez’s five years and $7MM in guaranteed money, though Perez did end up doing much better in two subsequent extensions with Kansas City.

Rutschman is enough of a top-tier prospect that the Orioles probably won’t have much concern over guaranteeing a big long-term deal to a catcher.  From Rutschman’s perspective, taking a big contract now might have some appeal as a hedge against potential injury, simply because catchers inevitably receive so much wear and tear (even if the DH or a potential move to first base down the road can help).  Plus, unless the next CBA adjusts when players are eligible to reach free agency, it will be quite some time before Rutschman can hit the open market.  He turns 24 in February, so if his debut is indeed pushed off to mid-April for service-time reasons, Rutschman won’t be scheduled for free agency until he is entering his age-31 season.

So while there are some valid reasons why Rutschman might be open to an extension early in his career, that doesn’t necessarily mean he would take a deal before his career gets underway.  It can be assumed that a Rutschman extension would top Robert’s record, and yet Rutschman might have eyes on a bigger target — such as the 11-year, $182MM deal Wander Franco just signed with the Rays in November.

Since Joe Mauer is the only catcher to sign a deal worth more than $182MM, Rutschman won’t top Franco’s number.  Plus, Franco is both younger (turning 21 in March) and plays shortstop, so he is more of a safer long-term play for an extension, even for a lower-payroll club like the Rays.  However, while Rutschman and his representatives likely wouldn’t be aiming to top Franco’s contract, the deal does serve as a reminder of the greater riches that can await a star prospect if he exhibits even some of that early promise at the MLB level.  While no reports surfaced whether or not Tampa explored a pre-career extension with Franco, had he inked such a contract, it would have been worth much less than his eventual $182MM guarantee.

Obviously, matching Franco’s excellent 2021 performance is no small feat for any player, especially a rookie like Rutschman.  But, just staying on the field and performing pretty well in 2022 would represent a nice showcase for Rutschman, and give the Orioles even more confidence in committing a major sum closer to the $100MM mark than simply a bump over Robert’s $50MM pact with the White Sox.

Given Rutschman’s status as an elite prospect, it is quite possible an extension akin to Robert’s deal could be on the table next winter anyway even if he doesn’t quite hit the “performing pretty well” threshold.  Barring a major injury or an unusual amount of struggles at the MLB level, the Orioles would likely still have interest in extending Rutschman prior to his sophomore year, considering all of his widely-touted potential.

A Rutschman extension would also have no small amount of symbolic value for the franchise.  Simply promoting Rutschman might have that same galvanizing effect on the long-suffering Baltimore fans, so Elias and the front office don’t necessarily need to rush into things just yet.  However, officially planting the financial flag on a new era of Orioles baseball would set a clear direction that the rebuild is almost over, and the organization will again start spending and looking to play some competitive baseball.

Orioles Notes: Rutschman, Severino, Mateo

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The Orioles have promoted catcher Adley Rutschman from Double-A to Triple-A Norfolk, the team announced last night. (MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubtako first reported he’d be moving up a level.) Rutschman, who now ranks as the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball at Baseball America and MLB.com following Wander Franco’s graduation from the list, opened the year at the Double-A level and posted a .271/.392/.508 batting line with 18 home runs, 16 doubles and nearly as many walks (15.4 percent) as strikeouts (15.9 percent). That slash was good for a whopping 144 wRC+ in the a very pitcher-friendly Double-A setting — the tenth-best mark of any qualified hitter in Double-A this season.

While he’s now technically just one step from the big leagues, it’s hard to imagine Rutschman would be summoned to the Majors before season’s end. The Orioles have just a 38-72 record on the season, and they’d gain another year of control over Rutschman by waiting until the third week of the 2022 season to promote him to the big leagues, barring any changes to service time structure in collective bargaining talks between MLB and the MLB Players Association. The current CBA expires on Dec. 1, and service time issues such as this are widely expected to be a talking point.

Some more notes out of Baltimore…

  • While Rutschman is the hopeful future at catcher for the Orioles, it’s been Pedro Severino there more often than anyone else over the past couple of seasons. The 28-year-old has batted .245/.316/.400 over the past three seasons in Baltimore (94 wRC+), but his bat has dipped slightly in 2021. Kubatko suggests that Severino, who’ll be a due a raise on this year’s $1.825MM salary in arbitration over the winter, is likely to instead be non-tendered by the O’s. Severino has been a solid bat relative to other catchers around the league, but defensively, he’s had his share of struggles. He’s been roughly average in terms of caught-stealing rate over the past few years, but Severino draws poor pitch-blocking ratings at Baseball Prospectus, sub-par framing marks and checked in at -19 Defensive Runs Saved since coming to the O’s in 2019.
  • The Orioles are open to eventually playing Jorge Mateo in the outfield, writes Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun, but manager Brandon Hyde also added that the team’s hope is to get the recently claimed speedster comfortable playing in the middle infield. Baltimore claimed the 26-year-old Mateo off waivers from the Padres just four days ago — a move that could finally give the former top prospect a path to regular playing time in the big leagues. Mateo originally signed with the Yankees but was traded to Oakland in the Sonny Gray swap and then to the Padres for a player to be named later. Mateo is 3-for-11 with a double, a triple and a pair of steals to begin his Orioles tenure. The Padres acquired Mateo on June 30, 2020, but on a win-now club with a crowded roster, he never had much of an avenue to playing time. He appeared in 79 games with San Diego from 2020-21 but only recorded a combined 121 plate appearances in that time.

Examining The Orioles Rotation

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For the first time in a few years, the Baltimore Orioles plan to begin the 2021 season with a rotation that fans can dream on. They’re not quite ready to challenge the Yankees or the Rays for the division, but neither will their roster be flooded with journeymen and July trade candidates – at least not entirely.

Make no mistake, the Orioles will count as a surprise if they don’t finish in fifth place in the East, but songs of progress are sung in many different keys. The Orioles are entering Year Three under GM Mike Elias, which under most circumstances should call for the beginnings of the organization’s on-field transformation. Last year’s 25-35 record was a step in the right direction after back-to-back 100-loss seasons, but that still put them on a roughly 95-loss pace over a full campaign.

Progress for the Orioles this season begins in the rotation where youngsters Dean Kremer and Keegan Akin plan to slot behind John Means and Alex Cobb, per MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. Means and Cobb hardly make for a bone-chilling front of the rotation, but there ought not to be much question about their ability to stick in the rotation for a full season.

Means has been worth roughly 2.2 bWAR per 150 innings over his first two seasons, though there’s a stark contrast between his first half of 2019 and the time since. The 33-year-old Cobb, meanwhile, returned to form in 2020 with a 4.30 ERA/4.87 FIP in 52 1/3 innings over 10 starts. He’s a back-end starter at this point and could serve as eventual trade bait, but at least for the first half of the season, he ought to help protect the bullpen from overuse.

Where Means and Cobb secure the floor, Akin and Kremer raise the ceiling. The right-handed Kremer made four starts in 2020 with a 4.82 ERA/2.76 FIP. He struggled a bit with command (5.8 BB/9), but a high-spin fastball deployed up and a cutter with 4.4 inches of horizontal movement helped him secure 10.6 K/9 in his first taste of big league action. Kremer came to the Orioles as part of the Manny Machado package, but his slider looked like a difference-making pitch at the time, and his arsenal has shifted in the years since.

What that means isn’t yet clear. There’s been some question about whether Kremer has stuff enough to stick in the rotation long-term, but the Orioles are going to give the soon-to-be 25-year-old a chance. Internally, he might be their best chance for a first-division rotation type before prospects like Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall start arriving in a couple years.

The southpaw Akin boasts a similar profile, but from the other side. Both pitchers surrendered hard contact in 2020, but they still showed enough to manage a spot in the rotation. If either one can build on their 2020 performance to take firm hold of rotation innings, the Orioles could continue to grow their win totals in 2021. On the other hand, none of the front four seem particularly likely to develop into a frontline arm. They still seek high-impact talent in that department. The Orioles rotations ranked 19th in fWAR, 23rd in ERA and 24th in FIP, so they’ll need to improve to make much hay in the American League.

On the offensive end, Adley Rutschman has the chance to be the kind of impact player an organization can rally around. The former first overall draft choice will begin 2021 in Double-A, noted Kubatko. As Rutchschman nears, Elias should feel some pressure to field a competitive team around him. Even if Akin and Kremer aren’t exactly Johnson and Schilling, they can begin to lay the groundwork for a professional roster.

Prospect Faceoff: Bart vs. Rutschman

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The parallels between the Giants’ Joey Bart and the Orioles’ Adley Rutschman are plentiful. Both were standout catchers at reputable Division-I schools –Bart at Georgia Tech and Rutschman at Oregon State. Bart was in the running for the No. 1 overall pick in 2018 but went second overall to San Francisco. A year later, in 2019, Rutschman went No. 1 overall to Baltimore. Both draw significant praise for their defensive skills — each received a 60-grade on the 20-80 scale at both FanGraphs and MLB.com — as well as their raw power (again, both 60s). They’re widely considered to be the top two catching prospects in the game.

Joey Bart | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Bart 23, is about 14 months older than Rutschman and has already climbed as high as Double-A on the minor league ladder. He spent most of the 2019 season in Class-A Advanced, hitting .265/.315/.479 (116 wRC+) before a 22-game stint in Double-A where he finished on a tear: .316/.368/.544 (163 wRC+). Bart went on to the Arizona Fall League and hit .333/.524/.767 with four homers in 42 plate appearances before a broken thumb cut his AFL stint short. He could stand to improve his plate discipline (6.2 percent walk rate), but Bart also didn’t strike out at a particularly alarming rate (21 percent).

Behind the plate, Bart posted a rather pedestrian 27 percent caught-stealing rate across those two minor league levels before absolutely owning the run game in the AFL, where he caught nine of the 13 runners who attempted to take a base against him. Scouting reports praise his receiving and framing abilities as well as his ability to block pitches in the dirt — all things you’d expect for a catcher who was named ACC Defensive Player of the Year prior to being drafted in 2018. With Buster Posey’s contract winding down and his production waning, it’s not out of the question to think that Bart could debut in 2020 if the season is able to get underway at some point. If not, a 2021 debut should be considered likely, barring some major injury.

The 22-year-old Rutschman, meanwhile, is obviously further from the Majors but offers many of the same skills. He’s touted as a high-end defensive catcher with a strong arm behind the plate and plenty of pop with the bat. Rutschman hit .254/.351/.423 with a hearty 13 percent walk rate through 154 plate appearances in his pro debut, topping out with Class-A Delmarva. He struck out in just 17.5 percent of those plate appearances, although it’s worth pointing out that he really hasn’t faced any pitching that’s older and more experienced than he is just yet.

Adley Rutschman | Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Unlike Bart, Rutschman is a switch-hitter. He has power from both sides of the dish even if most reports agree that his left-handed swing is superior to his right-handed swing. He threw out seven of the 11 hitters who tried to steal against him in his limited pro debut and, by all accounts, should be adept at controlling runners, calling a game, blocking pitches in the dirt and framing. It’s reasonable to expect that he’ll be in the Majors by 2022 — and a 2021 debut isn’t all that far-fetched (depending on any service time games the Orioles do or don’t feel like playing).

Given that Bart and Rutschman were elite college catchers who went within the first two picks of a draft class in consecutive seasons, this likely isn’t the only place you’ll see the two of them compared in the coming years. Rutschman is generally ranked more highly on prospect lists, although not by much in some cases. He’s No. 4 to Bart’s 14 at MLB.com and No. 5 against Bart’s 10 at FanGraphs. Other publications have a bit more distance between them, including Baseball America (Rutschman at 5, Bart at 32), Baseball Prospectus (Rutschman at 4, Bart at 25) and The Athletic (Rutschman at 10, Bart at 44). Prospect rankings are in a constant state of flux, though, and the pair is close enough that the consensus opinion could easily change in a few months’ time.

It’s clear that both are expected to become high-end catchers with All-Star potential, but let’s open up the debate (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…

Latest Notes On Orioles’ Offseason

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Unsurprisingly, it has been another rather quiet offseason for an Orioles organization that is still focused primarily on improving behind the scenes and building up its talent base for the future. There’s still no reason to anticipate anything approaching a blockbuster move this winter. But there could be some further additions before Spring Training opens. And O’s camp is now set to feature an especially intriguing piece of the future.

The latest from Baltimore:

  • In an update on the Orioles’ offseason efforts, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that the club’s trade talks have gone “quiet.” That’s not terribly surprising. We haven’t seen much action on Trey Mancini or Mychal Givens, who are perhaps the club’s two most plausible trade pieces. In both cases, the club has multiple years of control remaining and needs not be in any rush to make a move. As ever, though, it’s possible that late-developing interest could spur some chatter.
  • Beyond that, Kubtako says that the O’s are only “willing to hand out one more major league contract this winter.” That limits the open-market possibilities — not that it ever seemed likely the team would do more at this stage. Buttressing the rotation and infield seemingly remain the two chief goals. Kubatko says the club has dabbled in both 40-man and non-roster deals at both positions.
  • While the Baltimore front office works to fill out its slate of candidates at the MLB level in 2020, it has also added a fun twist to the Spring Training festivities. Elite prospect Adley Rutschman has received an invitation to participate on the big league side of camp, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). The exciting young backstop won’t be challenging for a job in the majors, obviously, but he will get a taste of the future at the outset of his first full year in the organization. When he was drafted with the top overall pick last summer, Rutschman was billed as both a highly talented and highly polished player. Just how fast he’ll move remains to be seen, but this decision tends to suggest the Orioles anticipate a relatively swift run through the farm.
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