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Adbert Alzolay

Cubs Considering Promoting Adbert Alzolay

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With Kyle Hendricks on the injured list, the Cubs may deploy a trio of pitchers to fill Hendricks’ starts during what the team hopes will be a relatively brief injury absence for the right-hander.  As president of baseball operations Theo Epstein told reporters (including the Chicago Sun-Times’ Gordon Wittenmyer) that the team was planning to use spot starters to give their veteran arms extra days of rest.  Tyler Chatwood and Mike Montgomery could be two of the pitchers filling in, though the third could be pitching prospect Adbert Alzolay.

“Alzolay is on a real roll at Triple-A, and we’d been planning even before this to possibly give him a couple of spot starts at some point over the next month or so,” Epstein said.  “Just to get his feet wet and also give our veteran rotation guys a little bit of a breather during a stretch in the schedule where we don’t have a lot of off days.”

Alzolay, 24, has a 3.09 ERA over 32 innings for Triple-A Iowa this season, with a stunning 12.9 K/9 and 7.67 K/BB rate.  His only real flaw is a 1.1 HR/9, which stems from “extreme flyball tendencies,” as per his MLB.com scouting report.  Despite some issues with the long ball, Alzolay is given credit for having a plus curveball and a plus fastball that sits in the 92-96mph range.

Though Alzolay has promise and has been at or near the top of the Cubs’ prospect charts for a couple of years, this could be more due to the fact that Chicago has promoted or dealt away many of their recent top minor leaguers.  In overall prospect rankings, only Baseball Prospectus placed Alzolay in its preseason top-100 (sitting 95th), while Alzolay has yet to crack even the updated midseason versions of the MLB.com or Baseball America top 100, while Fangraphs has Alzolay outside of their top 125.  Still, an injury-shortened 2018 season could account for his lack of notice, as a lat problem limited Alzolay to only eight starts last season.

It doesn’t seem as if Alzolay, if he is promoted, will necessarily be in line for an extended stint in his big league debut.  Hendricks and Yu Darvish, however, are the only Cubs starters on guaranteed deals beyond the 2020 season, so a solid first impression could certainly put Alzolay in line for an extended look possibly as early as next season, depending on what happens with Cole Hamels’ free agency.

Cubs Showing Interest In Craig Kimbrel

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All winter long and into the season, through the unavailability (for one reason or another) of backend bullpen notables Brandon Morrow, Pedro Strop and Carl Edwards Jr., messaging out of Chicago’s front office has been as consistent as the bullpen has been fickle: the Cubs have no money to spend. Yet, the Northsiders are suddenly showing interest in Craig Kimbrel, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

The Cubs financial story remains the same with one new wrinkle: an unfortunate family situation has left utility maven Ben Zobrist on the restricted list since May 8th. If his divorce continues to keep him out of action – which seems likelier than not at this point – the Cubs could recoup a good portion of his salary (in the neighborhood of $9MM), at least as far as the luxury tax is concerned. This new math could give the Cubs just enough room to make a viable run at Kimbrel. Roster resource pegs Chicago’s luxury tax number at around $223MM, whereas Spotrac puts the Cubs at around $200MM. The latter number puts the Cubs a little more than $5MM shy of paying the luxury tax, but Rosenthal suggests the Cubs aren’t as concerned about the tax in general as they are the $246MM line that incurs the harshest penalties. Whether current spending has them just under the first threshold ($206MM) or the second threshold ($226MM), either valuation of their current payroll ought to leave enough room to make a competitive offer to Kimbrel while staying under (at least) the final tax line. There are, of course, other potential suitors courting Kimbrel.

And yet, even if they can make the math work, the months of consistent messaging casts some doubt onto a Cubs’ pursuit of Kimbrel. What we know for certain is that Theo Epstein and company are not shy about doing due diligence, and if history holds, they’ll make at least one notable move before the trade deadline. Epstein has been active on the trade market throughout his Chicago tenure, making at least one deadline acquisition each season dating back to 2015: Dan Haren (2015), Aroldis Chapman & Mike Montgomery (2016), Jose Quintana, Alex Avila & Justin Wilson (2017), Cole Hamels, Brandon Kintzler & Jesse Chavez (2018). There aren’t many misses in this group either, as most of these acquisitions have found ways to contribute (nor are there many position players).

This year, of course, they won’t have the August 31 deadline to take advantage of as they have in every season since emerging as surprise contenders in 2015: Austin Jackson & Fernando Rodney (2015), Joe Smith (2016), Leonys Martin (2017) and Daniel Murphy (2018). In a condensed trading period, the Cubs may prove more aggressive in pursuing a backend talent like Kimbrel.

Still, this could be the year the Cubs don’t make an impact move. They’re not wholly unprepared to go to battle with the arms in-house, per The Atheltic’s Sahadev Sharma, who spotlights Dillon Maples, Rowan Wick, and Adbert Alzolay as three depth arms who could make a difference this summer.

Maples has a ton of swing-and-miss in his arsenal, but he also doesn’t have a clue how to harness it, as evidenced in his small sample with the big league club this year. Through six appearances, he’s amassed 4 2/3 innings with eight walks and ten strikeouts. A less-than-five-inning sample hardly packs enough punch to make a statement, but still, 15.4 BB/9 and 19.3 K/9 are jarring numbers to see, especially once you notice they aren’t that far off the norm for Maples. In parts of three seasons at Triple-A, Maples owns a 2.93 ERA with 8.0 BB/9 and 16.4 K/9.

Alzolay, meanwhile, has long been a promising arm for Chicago, but he has yet to make his major league debut, while Wick came to the Cubs from the Padres for Jason Vosler this past winter. Wick was recently recalled after posting strong numbers in Iowa (4.14 K/BB). The Cubs should have high aspirations come October, and betting on this trio of arms to outlast a deep division and long playoff run would be a gamble. So while they may be inclined to use the month of June to evaluate the arms in-house, a decision on Kimbrel will have to be made much much sooner.

Roster Notes: Padres, Paddack, Rangers, Cubs, Scahill

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The Padres #5 ranked prospect per MLB.com (#34 overall) is angling to get the nod on Opening Day, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. Chris Paddack threw four scoreless innings, which included a stretch in which he struck out five consecutive Oakland A’s batters in his most recent spring start. Last season, Paddack made seven starts in Double-A after cruising through High-A, where he notched an eye-popping 14.3 K/9 versus 0.7 BB/9 in 52 1/3 innings. Double-A didn’t slow him much, going 3-2 with a 1.91 ERA in 7 starts, 8.8 K/9 to 1.0 BB/9. Still, from Double-A to an Opening Day start would be quite the jump for the 23-year-old, just a year removed from missing all of 2017 to Tommy John surgery. The competition is fairly wide open, however, as the Padres, by design, brought very little in the way of established talent to camp. Since the offseason departures of veterans Clayton Richard (traded to Blue Jays) and Tyson Ross (signed with Tigers), Robbie Erlin boasts the most experience in the group, and he’s not even a lock to make the rotation. Fellow southpaws Joey Lucchesi and Eric Lauer each have a shot to get the Opening Day nod, as well. Let’s check in on the Rangers’ and Cubs’ camps as teams begin to whittle their spring rosters…

  • The Rangers culled their number of players in camp to 60. Pitchers Taylor Guerrieri, Michael Tonkin, Miguel Del Pozo and Brady Feigl were all assigned to minor league camp, per the Rangers’ executive VP of communications John Blake (via Twitter). Guerrieri, 26, joined the Rangers after making his major league debut last season with the Blue Jays. A former first round pick of the Rays, he was a starter in the minor leagues until missing most of the 2017 season due to injury. Toronto claimed him off waivers before last season, where started 7 games in Triple-A before appearing 9 times out of the Blue Jays pen, pitching to a 5.02 FIP in a small-sample 9 2/3 big league innings. Tonkin, 29, appeared in parts of five seasons for the Twins from 2013 to 2017 with a 4.57 FIP across 141 games. Del Pozo, 26, reached as far as Double-A in the Marlins system before joining the Rangers as a non-roster invitee. While Feigl, 28, is back in the Rangers system where he has pitched for the past two seasons.
  • The Cubs made a number of roster moves today, with promising righties Adbert Alzolay and Jen-Ho Tseng being optioned to Triple-A, while Justin Steele and Oscar De La Cruz were sent to Double-A, per the Athletic’s Patrick Mooney (Twitter links). Also on the move, Duncan Robinson, Ian Clarkin, Colin Rea, Ian Rice, Charcer Burks and Jacob Hannemann are being moved to minor league camp (Twitter link). Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter) adds Craig Brooks, Alberto Baldonado and Evan Marzilli to the list of players headed to minor league camp. The Cubs spring roster has now been cut to 54.
  • Rob Scahill, meanwhile, was released outright by the Cubs, per Mooney (via Twitter). Scahill has pitched at the big league level for parts of seven seasons running, topping out at 31 appearances in 2016 spread between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh. In total, the 32-year-old boasts a career 3.95 ERA (4.67 FIP) in 124 games for Rockies, Pirates, Brewers and White Sox.

Cubs Prospect Adbert Alzolay To Miss Remainder Of Season

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Top Cubs pitching prospect Adbert Alzolay is slated to miss the remainder of the season, GM Jed Hoyer told reporters including Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter). The recovery timeline for the lat injury he suffered recently is too lengthy to make a return plausible.

Clearly, that’s disappointing news for the Chicago organization and its prized young hurler. The 23-year-old was seen as a rising talent entering the year, topping most lists of the best prospects in a generally low-rated farm.

It surely seemed possible, at least, that Alzolay would factor as soon as the current season and certainly by 2019. He had not exactly dominated in eight starts at Triple-A, working to a 4.76 ERA with 6.1 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 over 39 2/3 innings, but was (and is) still seen as a big talent within the organization.

As Hoyer put it, via MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat (on Twitter): “It’s a setback for 2018 but we don’t see it as a setback for his career. We love the makeup, love the stuff. We think he’ll help us a lot in the future.”

It’s obviously still possible that Alzolay will be a notable part of the Cubs’ depth chart next year. But the loss will tell. He will miss a lot of development opportunities, while the team will not get to evaluate him as fully. Most notably of all, perhaps, is the simple question of innings. Alzolay had not previously topped 120 1/3 in a full season. Even if he is able to log some frames in fall or winter ball, that’s not going to make the Cubs comfortable pushing him out next season.

Fortunately for the Cubs, the 2019 rotation is already fully accounted for (assuming full health). Still, Alzolay’s injury situation will impact the team’s planning. Per Hoyer, via ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers (on Twitter): “We’ll be on the lookout for rotation depth and in the bullpen, no matter what, but this [injury to Alzolay] underscores that a little bit.”

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