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Phillies Do Not Extend Qualifying Offer To Rhys Hoskins

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The Phillies will extend a $20.325MM qualifying offer to right-hander Aaron Nola but not to first baseman Rhys Hoskins, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

Hoskins, 30, was an interesting borderline case for a QO. On the one hand, he had slugged 148 home runs in his career and slashed .242/.353/.492 for a wRC+ of 126. But he then missed the entire 2023 season after tearing his left ACL in Spring Training.

That could have been a tricky decision for the Phils but it seems they have opted against giving Hoskins the QO, seemingly expecting that he would have accepted it. That would have been logical from his point of view, returning to a familiar environment while hoping for a bounceback campaign. A salary of $20.325MM for Hoskins would have been reasonable if he were healthy, but it’s also a lot of money to tie up right at the beginning of the offseason, in addition to the risk of him having some rust after the lost season.

The Phils also have some flexibility now that Bryce Harper got playing time at first base in 2023 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery and couldn’t play the outfield. The outfielder picture has Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Johan Rojas, Brandon Marsh, Cristian Pache and Jake Cave, so perhaps they didn’t want to lock up a first baseman like Hoskins and push Harper back into the outfield on an everyday basis.

This only helps Hoskins out as a free agent, since receiving a QO has a negative effect on a player’s earning power. Being saddled with draft pick forfeiture will cause some clubs to lower how much they are willing to spend on a given player while some other will steer clear of such players completely. By avoiding the QO, Hoskins can avoid any such worries.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

NL East Notes: Nola, Eppler, Hefner, Lundquist

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The longest-tenured player on the Phillies, All-Star starting pitcher Aaron Nola, is set to hit free agency following the conclusion of the World Series. Meanwhile, his long-time rotation mate, Zack Wheeler, is entering the final season of the five-year, $118MM pact he signed ahead of the 2020 campaign.

Speaking to members of the media on Thursday (including Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philadelphia), president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said that re-signing Nola is a priority and he hopes to retain the former Cy Young finalist. Nola, for his part, told reporters on Tuesday (including Matt Breen of The Philadelphia Inquirer), “I hope I’m back, for sure.” Thus, there seems to be mutual interest in keeping the right-hander in Philadelphia for the long haul.

However, a deal still has to get done, and both sides have acknowledged that it might not happen. Dombrowski says he will pivot to other front-line starters on the open market if he can’t come to an agreement with Nola, while the 30-year-old starter was more cryptic, simply admitting that he doesn’t know “what the future holds.” The two sides reached an impasse in extension talks last winter, with the ace reportedly seeking a much longer deal that the team was willing to offer.

Dombrowski also expressed a vague desire to keep Wheeler beyond the terms of his current contract, although he would not reveal if extension negotiations were part of his offseason plan.

In other news from the NL East…

  • Earlier this month, Billy Eppler stepped down from his role as general manager of the Mets amidst an investigation into his misuse of the injured list and injury rehab assignments. His departure from the organization came as quite a surprise, since most were expecting him to stay on as GM under new president of baseball operations David Stearns. Now, however, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Eppler would have been fired had he not resigned, and thus, he will be paid for the two years remaining on his guaranteed contract. Sherman notes that the inquiry is still ongoing, and it is unlikely MLB will announce a ruling before the end of the World Series. Given the scope of the investigation, it’s not hard to understand why the team chose to part ways with Eppler; Stearns has a busy enough offseason ahead of him as it is.
  • Sticking with the Mets, Martino reports that other teams are “under the impression” that Mets coaches are essentially available for hire, given the likelihood that a new manager will come in and clean house. Indeed, pitching coach Jeremy Hefner is already drawing interest from at least one other club, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. However, Hefner prefers to wait and see if he fits into the team’s future plans (in other words, if the new manager wants to keep him on) before he takes an interview with another club. Hefner, who played for the Mets from 2012-13, has already survived two managerial hirings in his four years as the pitching coach, so it makes sense that he isn’t ready to pack his bags just yet.
  • Back to the Phillies, the team has announced that bullpen coach Dave Lundquist will not return for the 2024 season. Lundquist, 50, has been with the organization since 2018, starting as the pitching coach for Triple-A Lehigh Valley before becoming assistant pitching coach and then bullpen coach for the major league team. The bullpen has become a legitimate strength under his guidance, going from one of the worst in the league to one of the best in just three seasons. The Phillies are also parting ways with assistant hitting coach Jason Camilli, who joined the staff in 2022 after spending 15 years as a minor league hitting coach with the Nationals, Diamondbacks, and Reds organizations.

Phillies, Aaron Nola Didn’t Come Close To Extension Last Offseason

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It’s no secret that the Phillies wanted to extend Aaron Nola last winter.

Speaking on WIP-FM radio in January, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said an extension for Nola was “something we’d like to do” (as relayed by Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer). He further explained, “We want Aaron to be in the organization for a long time, no question. We love him. We love his abilities. I know he likes it in Philadelphia. So that’s something that will be in our mind… It’s never easy to be able to get done, but we’d love to keep Aaron in the organization for a long time.”

About a month later, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reported that the two sides had exchanged offers, and a few months after that, Jon Heyman of the New York Post revealed that the team’s offer was north of $100MM, although he noted it was well short of the $162MM guarantee Carlos Rodón got from the Yankees in December.

Now, Bob Nightengale of USA Today is reporting that the two sides were never particularly close to an agreement. According to Nightengale, the All-Star right-hander sought an eight-year deal worth over $200MM – significantly more than Rodón’s six-year, $162MM pact. The Phillies, for their part, weren’t willing to go anywhere near that number, instead offering a four- or five-year contract.

It’s understandable why Nola was asking for so much, but at the same time, it’s no surprise the team was hesitant to extend him through his age-38 season. Heading into the 2023 campaign, the righty looked like one of the top impending free agents, perhaps second only to Shohei Ohtani. Ten free agents had signed nine-figure deals the previous winter, and the highest-paid pitchers, Rodón and Jacob deGrom, reeled in $185MM and $162MM, respectively. Nola has never been as dominant as those two pitchers at their best, but he is far more durable, and since his first full season, he has outpaced both in Baseball Reference WAR. Thus, it was always going to take a sizeable guarantee to convince him to forgo free agency.

The Phillies have long been hesitant to sign pitchers to long-term contracts. The largest deal the team has ever signed with a pitcher was a six-year, $144MM extension for Cole Hamels during his age-28 season. Meanwhile, the largest free agent contract they’ve given to a pitcher was a five-year, $120MM pact for Cliff Lee, when the veteran was entering his age-32 campaign. Needless to say, an eight-year, $200MM extension for Nola would have been completely unprecedented for this ball club.

At the same time, the Phillies have been more aggressive with their spending since Dombrowski took over, surpassing the luxury tax for the first time in 2022 and signing a free agent to a nine-figure deal in each of the past three offseasons. What’s more, Dombrowski signed several pitchers to big-money contracts during his time with the Tigers and Red Sox, namely Justin Verlander, David Price, and Chris Sale. Nevertheless, the Phillies and their top baseball executive weren’t willing to meet Nola’s demands for an extension this past winter.

Nola could still be back in Phillies pinstripes next season, but at this point in the year, it’s all but certain he’ll test the waters of free agency first. While his performance in 2023 may have brought down his value (4.46 ERA in 32 starts), he remains one of the most durable starting pitchers in the game. Moreover, his underlying numbers are less offensive than his ERA (3.75 SIERA, 3.77 xERA, 4.49 K/BB), and he has looked phenomenal thus far in the postseason. The 2018 Cy Young finalist should be among the most sought-after righties on the market, along with Ohtani, Sonny Gray, and NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Indeed, at least one team, the Cardinals, has already expressed interest in pursuing Nola this winter.

Cardinals Interested In Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray

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Adding as many as three starting pitchers is a stated offseason goal for Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, and it isn’t surprising that the club is already plotting out some notable free agent pursuits.  While the Cards will cast a wide berth across the free agent pitching market, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray are two pitchers in particular “the Cardinals have identified as good fits and plan to approach to see if the feeling is mutual.”

In something of a pitching-heavy free agent class, Nola (30 years old) and Gray (34 next month) are two of the top names available.  Both will be entering free agency for the first time due to contract extensions signed earlier in this careers, and since both pitchers will undoubtedly receive and reject qualifying offers, the Cardinals would have to give up $500K in international bonus money and their second-highest pick in the 2024 draft as compensation for a signing.

St. Louis has traditionally been somewhat modest in its dips into the open market, as Matt Holliday’s seven-year, $120MM deal from the 2009-10 offseason remains the biggest contract the Cardinals have ever given to a free agent player.  In terms of pitching contracts, the Cards gave Mike Leake five years/$80MM during the 2015-16 offseason but that deal didn’t work out, to the point that St. Louis traded Leake before the contract was even two years old.  More recently, the Cardinals signed Steven Matz for four years and $44MM two winters ago, though Matz’s performance has been inconsistent and he has battled some injury problems.

With rotation help such a glaring need, however, the Cardinals might have no choice but to test free agency for the pitchers they need, particularly front-of-the-rotation types.  Both Gray and Nola had pretty comparable overall numbers and Nola actually had the better SIERA (3.75 to 3.95) of the two pitchers, though Gray ended up with a 2.79 ERA to Nola’s 4.46 ERA — perhaps underlining the difference between the Twins’ defense and the Phillies’ much weaker defense.

Goold noted that the Cardinals are among the many teams who have scouted Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and that the team could explore a reunion with Jordan Montgomery after St. Louis dealt Montgomery to the Rangers at the trade deadline.  Looking at the market as a whole, if the Cards are indeed leaning towards Gray and Nola as their top choices, that gives some hint as to the Cardinals’ spending range.

Gray and Nola will each command healthy contracts, yet not in the stratosphere of a Shohei Ohtani (who won’t even pitch in 2024 anyway due to Tommy John surgery) or perhaps even Yamamoto, whose contract might approach $200MM because he is only 25 years old.  Montgomery and Blake Snell are two more of the top starters available, though it is perhaps noteworthy that both are represented by the Boras Corporation, whereas Gray is repped by Bo McKinnis and Nola by Paragon.  While the Cardinals have rostered and acquired several Scott Boras clients over the years, Boras’ penchant for encouraging clients to wait until deeper into the offseason to sign might not be ideal for a St. Louis team that would probably prefer to get its top-end pitching acquisitions out of the way sooner rather than later.

2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: June Edition

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We’re at the regular season’s halfway point, and the free-agent landscape has changed a fair bit since we last ran through our Power Rankings back in mid-April. Injuries, changes in performance — some for the better, some for the worse — and more have combined to provide more context as to what shape the top of the free agent market will take.

As a reminder, our Power Rankings are based primarily on perceived earning power. This is an exercise intended to provide a snapshot of where the top end of the free agent class is currently sitting. One player being ranked higher than another does not necessarily indicate we feel he’s the better player. Youth, health, qualifying offer status, market scarcity and myriad other factors all impact what a player can expect to earn in free agency.

Our power rankings are compiled collaboratively. MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes and writers Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald all weighed in for this update. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given indications they may forgo the opportunity to return to the market.

1. Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Angels: There are no surprises up top. Ohtani remains far and away the top name on this year’s list — so much so that he might even command double the No. 2 entrant on our list. That’s both a testament to his general excellence and an indictment on what is generally a weaker free agent class than is typical.

Ohtani, 29 in July, isn’t having quite as dominant a season on the mound as he did in 2022, but he’s still been quite good and is enjoying his best year to date with the bat. In 95 1/3 innings, the flamethrowing righty has pitched to a 3.02 ERA with a 33.2% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate. The latter is a marked uptick from the 6.7% he logged a year ago. Ohtani’s strikeout rate is only down about half a percentage point from its 2022 levels, but he’s seen more notable drops in swinging-strike rate (from 14.9% to 13.5%) and opponents’ chase rate (32.6% to 29.5%). This is also the most homer-prone he’s ever been on the mound; his 1.13 HR/9 is a career-high, and the 12 homers he’s allowed in 95 1/3 innings innings are already just two shy of last year’s total of 14 — which came over a span of 166 frames.

To some extent, that’s just nitpicking. Ohtani has still been excellent. His ERA ranks 15th among qualified starting pitchers, and only Atlanta’s Spencer Strider has a higher strikeout rate. He currently ranks sixth among qualified pitchers in K-BB% (23%), and fielding-independent metrics are generally supportive of his success (e.g. 3.40 SIERA, 3.35 xERA). Hitters simply haven’t been able to make good contact against Ohtani, outside that handful of home runs anyway. His 86 mph average opponents’ exit velocity is in the 93rd percentile of MLB pitchers. His 34.8% opponents’ hard-hit rate is in the 77th percentile. He’s induced grounders at a solid 44.4% clip. The uptick in walks is significant, but that’s only taken Ohtani from an ace-level performer to a slight step below that level.

And of course, when discussing Ohtani, the mound work is only half the equation. His work in the batter’s box this season has been nothing short of sensational. In 360 plate appearances, Ohtani is batting .309/.389/659. That’s 82% better than league-average production after weighting for home park, by measure of wRC+. Ohtani has already belted 28 home runs, and he’s added 15 doubles and five triples while swiping 11 bags (in 15 tries). This year’s 11.4% walk rate is right an exact match for his career mark (although shy of his 15.6% peak), and his 21.7% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career.

Ohtani has averaged an obscene 93.7 mph off the bat this year and ranks in the 95th percentile (or better) of MLB hitters in exit velocity, barrel rate, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA. He’s a bona fide middle-of-the-order bat with the speed to swipe 25 to 30 bases and the power to clear 40 home runs.

When chatting about this update to our Power Rankings, Anthony Franco rhetorically asked me if I thought Ohtani the hitter and Ohtani the pitcher (if somehow separated) would both still individually rank ahead of the rest of this year’s class of free agents. We both agreed that they would. Fortunately, one team will get both this offseason — it just might cost more than half a billion dollars.

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Orix Buffaloes (Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball): Many people have wondered what type of contract Ohtani might have originally commanded if he’d waited two years to jump to Major League Baseball. Because he opted to make the jump at 23 years of age, he was considered an “amateur” under MLB rules and thus limited to the confines of MLB’s international free agent system. Since he’s not also a world class hitter, Yamamoto won’t give us an exact answer to that now-unanswerable Ohtani hypothetical, but he’ll show us what a 25-year-old ace can command under true open-market pricing if and when the Buffaloes post him, as expected.

Yamamoto, 25 in August, is one of the best pitchers in NPB and perhaps one of the most talented arms on the planet. The right-hander made his NPB debut as an 18-year-old rookie in 2017, stepped into the Buffaloes’ rotation full-time in 2019, and has pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA in four of the past five seasons, including this year’s current mark of 1.98. The lone exception was 2020, when his ERA ballooned all the way to… ahem, 2.20. Yamamoto has a sub-2.00 ERA in his career, and that’s including the 5.32 mark he posted in that age-18 rookie season.

So far in 2023, Yamamoto has pitched 68 1/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, a 27.8% strikeout rate and a superlative 4.1% walk rate. Just 11 of the 266 batters he’s faced have drawn a free pass. That’s a career-best mark for a pitcher who’s long had outstanding command but has continually whittled away at his walk rate over the years. In his NPB career, Yamamoto has walked just 6.1% of opponents against a 26.5% strikeout rate.

MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski kicked off his latest NPB Players To Watch piece with a look at Yamamoto’s recent run of dominance: a stretch of three consecutive eight-inning starts with just one run allowed and a 29.8% strikeout rate and .092 opponents’ average along the way. World Baseball Classic fans may remember Yamamoto’s performance as well: in 7 1/3 innings he allowed just two runs on four hits and two walks with 12 strikeouts. Back in April, Dai described Yamamoto as the “undisputed ace of NPB,” noting that he’s won the Sawamura Award (NPB’s Cy Young equivalent) in each of the past two seasons. He also won the pitching triple crown (ERA, strikeouts, wins) in 2021-22 and has a chance to repeat the feat in 2023.

Like so many pitchers these days, Yamamoto boasts a mid- to upper-90s heater. Scouts credit him with a potentially plus-plus splitter and give favorable reviews of his curveball and general athleticism as well. Presumably, there’s some trepidation regarding a pitcher who’s listed at just 5’10” and 169 pounds, and whoever signs him will have to pay a posting/release fee to the Buffaloes. Those are about the only “red flags” in Yamamoto’s profile.

Yamamoto’s countryman, Kodai Senga, has had some inconsistent command but generally performed well since signing a five-year, $75MM deal with the Mets. In an offseason piece, Joel Sherman of the New York Post quoted an evaluator who graded Yamamoto a full grade better than Senga on the 20-80 scale. And, it bears emphasizing, Yamamoto is five years younger than Senga. We haven’t seen a pitcher with this type of pedigree make the jump from Japan without any spending restrictions since Masahiro Tanaka signed a seven-year, $155MM deal with the Yankees. Yamamoto is younger than Tanaka was, he’s arguably better, and the price of pitching has only gone up since that time. A contract in excess of $200MM doesn’t seem outlandish if he can remain healthy and productive.

3. Matt Chapman, 3B, Blue Jays: It’s been a tale of two seasons for Chapman, who was perhaps baseball’s best hitter in April and one of its worst in May. The slump has been longer than the hot streak at this point, although the aggregate .265/.343/.457 slash is still well above league average (23% better, by measure of wRC+). Paired with his characteristically excellent defense (7 Defensive Runs Saved and 4 Outs Above Average already), and Chapman’s still been an undeniably valuable player, even if the nature of his contributions for the Jays have been quite frontloaded in the schedule’s early portion.

That said, it’s still incumbent upon Chapman to turn things around at the plate sooner than later. The weight of that early, Herculean stretch will continually diminish, and the current version of the former All-Star simply isn’t that compelling. Early in the year, Chapman was regularly making blistering contact and had dramatically cut back on his strikeouts. In writing about his brilliant start to the season in early May, I pointed out that he’d begun to let the strikeouts creep back in and wondered whether that was a mere blip or the onset of some regression.

Unfortunately, the strikeout issues that have dogged Chapman in the aftermath of his 2020 hip surgery have resurfaced. Dating back to May 1, Chapman is hitting just .203/.279/.339 with an a 30.2% strikeout rate. He’s still walking at a respectable 8.8% rate, and his quality of contact is excellent. Chapman is averaging 92.4 mph off the bat and hitting the ball at 95 mph or better in 52.7% of his plate appearances even during this prolonged slump. After benefiting from a .449 BABIP early in the year, he’s seen that mark swing down to .269 in May and June.

In all likelihood, the “true” results are somewhere between the two extremes of Chapman’s 2023 season. He’s not the hitter he was in April, but he’s certainly better than he’s been in May and June. The question is whether Chapman can curb the strikeouts moving forward. His propensity for thunderous contact (when he makes it) should lead to some positive regression and once again begin to produce better results. But if he fans at a 30% clip from here on out, there may not be enough balls in play to help him prop his stat line back up. Furthermore, it’d mark the third time in four seasons he finished at or above a 30% strikeout rate, which doesn’t inspire much confidence over the course of a long-term deal.

Chapman still ranks prominently here because the overall numbers are still good, and because, frankly, the crop of position players this offseason is dreadful. In fact, he’s the only pure position player on this installment of our Power Rankings, which is unprecedented. If Chapman can sustain his quality of contact and scale back the strikeouts slightly, he could still find a seven- or eight-year deal heading into his age-31 season. His overall production right now is comparable to the output posted by Kris Bryant in advance of his foray into free agency (which resulted in a seven-year, $182MM contract), and Chapman has far more defensive value than Bryant.

4. Lucas Giolito, SP, White Sox: It’s been a tough start to the year for a number of top free agent pitchers, but Giolito has generally pitched well. His strikeout rate is down from its 33.7% peak, but he’s still fanning more than a quarter of his opponents with his typical brand of better-than-average command (7.5% walk rate). It’s too soon to tell is this is a trend, but it bears mentioning that Giolito has upped his slider usage recently and seen a notable increase in strikeouts. Over his past five starts, he’s thrown the slider at a 35.8% clip, as compared to his prior 28.4% usage rate. It’s not a massive increase, but Giolito had just three starts with a slider rate of 30% or more in his first 11 trips to the hill; since May 30, he’s been between 31.4% and 41.2% in each start. It does seem to mark a clear change in attack plan, and after fanning 23.9% of hitters through those 11 starts, he’s up to 29.4% over his past five.

Giolito’s 93.3 mph average fastball is actually up slightly from 2022’s average of 92.7 mph. Home runs remain an issue (1.36 HR/9), and he’s been a bit more homer-prone on the road than in his hitter-friendly home park this year. That’s not the norm, however; the right-hander has allowed more than 1.5 homers per nine innings in his career at home but is at a much more palatable 1.16 mark on the road.

Giolito’s current 3.41 ERA would mark the fourth time in five seasons that he finished with an ERA between 3.41 and 3.53. Last year’s 4.90 looks like a clear outlier that was largely fueled by a career-high .340 average on balls in play. (The White Sox, notably, were among the game’s worst defensive teams in 2022.)

As with all free agents, age is crucial. In Giolito’s case, it’ll work in his favor. He’s 28 years old as of this writing and will turn 29 in mid-July. Even a seven-year contract would “only” carry through his age-35 season. It’s also worth noting that he’s been a frequently speculated trade candidate, and if he’s flipped to another club, he’d be ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. That carries significance in free agency, too.

Giolito might not be an ace, but he’s a surefire playoff starter for any team in Major League Baseball. He’s the second-youngest of the starters on this list with big league experience and has been a workhorse since 2018, ranking 10th among all MLB pitchers with 855 innings pitched in that time. Kevin Gausman (five years, $110MM) and Robbie Ray (five years, $115MM) signed similar contracts that began in their age-30 seasons. Neither had a track record as long as Giolito, who’ll be a year younger in his first free agent season. A six- or even seven-year deal could be in play, depending on how he finishes.

5. Julio Urias, SP, Dodgers: Urias is among the hardest players to peg among this year’s group. On the one hand, he posted a combined 2.63 ERA over 495 1/3 innings from 2019-22 and is slated to hit the open market in advance of age-27 season — a borderline unprecedentedly young age for a top-end starter to become a free agent. On the other, the lefty has been on the injured list for more than a month owing to a hamstring strain. He didn’t pitch all that well before landing on 15-day IL either. In 55 1/3 innings, Urias worked to a pedestrian 4.39 ERA, thanks primarily to a stunning uptick in home runs allowed; after yielding 0.98 homers per nine frames from ’19-’22, he’s allowed an average of 2.28 homers per nine innings in 2023.

That said, the rest of Urias’ numbers look quite similar to his peak output. His 23.3% strikeout rate is down a bit from the 24.7% he posted in 2019-22, but his 4.8% walk rate is notably better than his already strong 6.3% mark. His fastball velocity is right in line with last year’s level (when Urias notched a 2.16 ERA in 175 innings), as is his 10.8% swinging-strike rate. His 34.1% opponents’ chase rate remains strong.

The primary problem isn’t even an uptick in fly-balls, but rather in the percentage of those fly-balls that leave the yard. Entering the 2022 season, just 9.1% of the fly-balls allowed by Urias had become home runs. This year, it’s a staggering 20.3%. Broadly speaking, homer-to-flyball rate is susceptible to short-term spikes and tends to even out over a larger sample, but the uptick in homers hasn’t been well-timed. That’s doubly true given that for all of Urias’ success, he’s neither the flamethrowing powerhouse nor elite misser of bats that modern front offices covet. He’s succeeded thanks to elite command and by regularly limiting hard contact. Urias’ strikeout rates are typically a bit above average, but he’s never placed higher than the 67th percentile of MLB pitchers in overall strikeout rate.

That’s not to say Urias isn’t a desirable arm or won’t be a highly coveted pitcher. Prior to his injury, the MLBTR team had discussed possible contracts in excess of $200MM for the lefty, based both on his age and recent excellence. That’s perhaps a bit harder to see now, even if the current issue is a leg injury rather than an arm problem. Urias has only twice made 30 starts in a season, and he also has one major shoulder surgery already on his record (a 2017 procedure to repair a capsule tear).

A third consecutive 30-start season would’ve helped set aside a perceived lack of durability, but he won’t get there in 2023, even though he’s expected to return from the injured list as soon as this weekend. That’s not because of any arm troubles to date, and it should be noted that part of the reason for his lack of innings was some extreme workload management post-surgery that looks to have been effective, based on Urias’ 2021-22 results. Still, he hasn’t often worked a full starter’s slate of games, he won’t do it in 2023, and he hasn’t generated his typical results when healthy — even if most of the skill-oriented numbers remain similar to prior levels.

Urias will also have a qualifying offer to contend with, which isn’t true of every pitcher on these rankings. He’s undeniably talented and the clear youngest of the bunch, but it’d be easier to predict a massive long-term deal if he returns and starts producing more like he did in that aforementioned four-year peak.

6. Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies: Speaking of top-tier starters who haven’t performed up to expectations, the 30-year-old Nola finds himself in a precarious position. MLB’s consummate workhorse since his 2015 debut, Nola has pitched the third-most innings of the 2024 pitchers who’ve taken a big league mound since 2016 — his first full season in the Majors. Only Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer have topped Nola’s 1256 1/3 innings in that stretch.

For the majority of that time, Nola has operated on the periphery of ace-dom. He’s only a one-time All-Star and has never won a Cy Young, but the former No. 7 overall pick finished third place in 2017, seventh place in 2020 and fourth place just last year. During his 2017-22 peak, Nola notched a 3.48 ERA, 28.2% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 47.1% ground-ball rate. His 2022 season featured a terrific 29.1% strikeout rate and an elite 3.6% walk rate over the life of 205 innings — the second-most in all of baseball.

That version of Nola has been nowhere to be found in 2023. Through 105 2/3 innings, he’s posted a pedestrian 4.51 ERA with his lowest strikeout rate (23.9%) since his rookie season back in 2015. Nola’s 6.8% walk rate, while still a very strong mark, is his highest since 2020. He’s allowing more fly-balls than ever before, and unsurprisingly is allowing home runs at a career-worst rate (1.45 HR/9).

Fielding-independent metrics still believe Nola’s above-average strikeout rate, strong walk rate and ability to avoid hard contact ought to be translating to better results; his “expected” ERA is 3.53, per Statcast, while tools like FIP (4.28) and SIERA (4.00) agree he’s been short-changed a bit. Nola’s 65.1% strand rate, in particular, sits about eight percentage points below his career level and below the league average.

Heading into the season, a six- or seven-year deal seemed within reach for one of the game’s most durable and consistently above-average starting pitchers. He’s maintained the “durable” half of that equation, making 17 starts and averaging a hearty 6.22 innings per outing. The results haven’t been there, however, and Nola’s velocity is down about a half mile per hour on most of his pitches. It’s not the platform season he wanted, and even with the so-so results, he’ll surely still have a QO attached to him. There’s still an easy case for a long-term deal here, and a strong second half of the season would quiet a lot of these concerns. To this point, however, Nola has looked more like a mid-rotation starter than someone who’d be fronting a playoff staff.

7. Blake Snell, SP, Padres: Snell has been the best pitcher on the planet for the past month or so, generally erasing a terrible start to the season. This sort of Jekyll & Hyde performance is old hat for the former AL Cy Young winner, who closed out both the 2022 and 2021 seasons in dominant fashion, offsetting a wave of pedestrian starts in each instance. That endorsement of Snell’s past month isn’t even hyperbole; dating back to May 25, Snell has a comical 0.86 ERA with a 66-to-15 K/BB ratio in 42 innings. He’s fanned a massive 44.1% of his opponents against a better-than-average 8.1% walk rate.

Snell’s rollercoaster traits are nothing new, and they may scare some interested suitors in free agency. There’s no skirting the fact that he has a penchant for slow starts to the season, and when Snell is off his game, he can look lost. He doesn’t have pristine command in the first place, and walks become a particularly glaring issue when he’s in a rut. When he’s not as his best, Snell has a tendency to labor through short starts, which can tax a bullpen.

That said, here’s a look at Snell’s past 48 starts: 259 1/3 innings, 3.05 ERA, 33% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate, 0.90 HR/9, 36.9% ground-ball rate, .196 opponents’ average. The road he takes to get there may be infuriating at times, both for fans and his organization’s decision-makers, but Snell has clear top-of-the-rotation stuff. He’s currently riding a streak of four straight starts with double-digit strikeouts, during which he’s yielded just three runs.

The Padres can and very likely will make Snell a qualifying offer. He should reject while giving little, if any thought to the contrary. The qualifying offer and general inconsistency might hurt him, but there will also be teams who look at those factors as a possible avenue to signing a starter with genuine No. 1 talent at a cost that isn’t commensurate with those types of arms. Snell will pitch all of the 2024 season at age 31, and paired with his inconsistency, that might cap him at five years. But he should command $20MM per year over that five-year term, making a nine-figure deal within reach …. barring a second-half collapse that heightens concerns about the fluctuations in his performance.

8. Josh Hader, RP, Padres: Rumors of Hader’s demise as an elite closer last summer were greatly exaggerated, it seems. The four-time All-Star was struggling in the weeks leading up to his trade from Milwaukee to San Diego, and he didn’t help his cause when he allowed a dozen August runs following the swap. That slump was capped off by a six-run drubbing at the hands of a lowly Royals offense.

Since then, it’s been business as usual for Hader. The lefty quietly finished out the year with a 0.79 ERA in his final 11 1/3 innings. He was unscored upon from Sept. 7 through season’s end, and he went on to pitch another 5 1/3 shutout innings in the postseason, fanning 10 hitters in the process. Hader is now sitting on a sparkling 1.26 ERA. His 37.8% strikeout rate isn’t quite as high as his ridiculous 47.8% peak in 2019, but he still ranks among the league leaders in strikeout rate.

Since putting that six-run August meltdown against the Royals behind him, here’s Hader’s line (postseason included): 45 1/3 innings, 0.99 ERA, 38% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate, 29 saves.

Hader will be a year older in free agency than Edwin Diaz was when he set the relief pitcher record on a five-year, $102MM contract (which includes multiple opt-outs). That slight age gap will matter, but Hader has the longer and steadier track record of the two and could benefit from his handedness. So long as he keeps somewhere near this pace, he’ll take aim at making Diaz’s record short-lived.

9. Marcus Stroman, SP, Cubs: Stroman’s three-year, $71MM contract allows him to opt out of the final year this offseason. In doing so, he’d leave $21MM on the table, but there’s little doubt he’d be able to topple that mark in free agency. Stroman has already received a qualifying offer in his career, meaning he can’t receive a second one. He’s also the current MLB leader in bWAR (3.5) and third in the Majors in RA9-WAR (also 3.5). Through 102 innings, Stroman touts a 2.47 ERA and a 59.3% grounder rate that’s second only to Logan Webb among all qualified pitchers.

Good as Stroman’s results are, there’s some reason to be a bit skeptical on his earning power. He can surely outpace the $21MM he’d leave on the table by opting out, likely securing another multi-year deal in free agency. That said, Stroman’s profile hasn’t really changed since his last foray into the open market. He still has a below-average strikeout rate, and the lower-than-average walk rate he had last time around has crept up to about league average in 2023. He’s inducing more grounders than he has since 2018, but the primary reason for the drop in his ERA has been a career-low home run rate. Just 8.3% of the fly-balls allowed by Stroman have been homers — well shy of his 13.5% career mark.

Homer-to-flyball rate tends to stabilize over larger samples — Stroman was between 12.6% and 13.9% every year from 2018-22, for instance — so teams might essentially view him as the same pitcher he was in the 2021-22 offseason, just a couple years older. One factor working in Stroman’s favor is that the price of pitching has increased since then; Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt all helped advance that market last offseason. Bassitt’s three-year, $63MM deal with the Blue Jays should be of particular note. He secured that contract despite being hit with a QO that Stroman won’t have to contend with, and did so heading into his age-34 season. Next year will be Stroman’s age-33 season. He should at least be able to secure a three-year deal at a larger AAV than Bassitt received. A four-year deal with an AAV north of $20MM is also possible.

10. Jordan Montgomery, SP, Cardinals: Montgomery had a pair of rough starts in the season’s first six weeks, allowing seven and six runs in that pair of outings and ballooning his ERA in the process. Things have largely evened out though, and Montgomery’s numbers look just as solid as they did when he was establishing himself as a mid-rotation hurler in the Bronx, Through 92 innings, he’s posted a 3.52 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate and 46.6% grounder rate that all line up neatly with his 2021-22 production.

Montgomery pitched just 31 1/3 big league innings in 2018-19 due to Tommy John surgery and struggled in the shortened 2020 campaign upon his return from that operation. Since Opening Day 2021, however, he carries a 3.66 ERA and matching secondary marks (3.61 FIP, 3.88 SIERA) in 421 innings. If the Cardinals don’t trade Montgomery, he’ll be a natural qualifying offer candidate. He’d very likely reject that one-year offer in search of a multi-year deal in free agency. Montgomery isn’t an ace, but the market rewarded both Taillon (four years, $68MM) and Walker (four years, $72MM) with four-year contracts last winter. Neither had a QO attached to him, but Montgomery, who’ll turn 31 in December, has a better recent track record than both pitchers as well.

Of course, if the Cardinals remain out of the postseason hunt in late July, Montgomery will be a sought-after trade candidate. A trade to another club would render him ineligible to receive a QO. Even if the Cardinals hang onto him and make him a QO, he’ll still reach free agency in search of a comparable or even larger deal than the ones signed by Taillon, Walker and Bassitt. As with Stroman, it’s worth noting that Bassitt was older in free agency than Montgomery will be (by a margin of three years in Montgomery’s case).

Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Harrison Bader, Cody Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario, Sonny Gray, Teoscar Hernandez, Shota Imanaga, Joc Pederson, Eduardo Rodriguez (opt-out), Max Scherzer (player option), Jorge Soler (player option)

NL East Notes: Nola, Strahm, Suarez, Mets, Wright

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Phillies starter Aaron Nola will go into the off-season as one of the top available free agent pitchers, but Philadelphia’s expected to make a strong push to re-sign him, according to a report from the New York Post’s Jon Heyman.

It’s reported that the Phillies had at least some discussion with Nola this past winter about an extension, but their offer – which came in north of $100MM but south of the $162MM Carlos Rodon received from the Yankees – clearly didn’t get the job done. Heyman adds that Nola prefers a return to Philadelphia, and while 29 other teams could make a run at him in the winter, the Phillies will likely try again to keep him in town.

Nola’s off to a slower start than usual this year, working to a 4.64 ERA through his first seven starts, but has been one of the game’s most durable pitchers in recent seasons. He’s made more than 30 starts in every full season going back to 2018, and has compiled a very healthy 3.47 ERA in that time with above average walk and strikeout rates. As for this season, seven starts is not an insignificant sample size, and a slight drop in velocity in his fastball has seen his strikeout rate dip to just 19.2%, the lowest rate of his career.

As Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer noted about a week ago, Nola is a slow worker and the pitch clock change has been a tough adjustment for him. In any case, it’s certainly too early to write off Nola based on seven starts and it’s worth noting that the bulk of the damage was done in his first three starts, and he’s averaging almost seven innings per start with a 3.29 ERA since then.

While there’s still a full season to play out, Nola’s track record should stand him in good stead to do well in free agency. While he may not possess the dominant stuff Rodon displayed in the past two seasons, his durability is far superior and as we see so often, that is a huge value add for starting pitchers. With that in mind, it’s unsurprising Nola seemingly wasn’t interested in a deal below Rodon’s $162MM.

Here’s some more notes from around the NL East:

  • Sticking with the Phillies to begin with, and they’ll move Matt Strahm back to the bullpen with Ranger Suarez expected to return to the rotation shortly, per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Strahm’s given the Phillies some solid value out of the rotation, making six starts and working to a 3.51 ERA – including three scoreless starts. That’s been hugely helpful to a Phillies rotation that’s been slow out of the gates, with Nola and Zack Wheeler sporting ERAs above four and off-season recruit Taijuan Walker sitting at 6.91. The return of Suarez from an elbow injury will be a welcome addition, particularly if he can continue the excellent work he put in last season, where he worked to a 3.65 ERA across 29 starts. The Phillies have made a slow start to the season, sitting 15-18 entering play Saturday and seven games adrift of the Braves in first place, so the return of players like Suarez and Bryce Harper will be critical to getting them back in the race for one of baseball’s more competitive divisions.
  • The Mets are one more team off to a slower than expected start, after another busy off-season they sit 17-16 entering play Saturday. That’s not concerning GM Billy Eppler though, who told reporters (including Tim Britton of The Athletic) that he still believes in this roster. “I believe in this team and the players that are here. There’s too much track record, there’s too much these guys have accomplished, there’s too much know-how,” Eppler said. While a 17-16 record is certainly not the end of the world, the Mets expected better and one focus might be the top of the team’s payroll, where some of their highly-paid stars are underperforming through the first month. Starling Marte is hitting just .219/.299/.286 while Max Scherzer has a 5.56 ERA, yet Eppler says he’s not concerned by either. The Mets also just welcomed back Justin Verlander from the IL, so his return to the rotation will provide a big boost as they look to keep up with the Braves.
  • Kyle Wright’s MRI revealed a right shoulder strain which the Braves will re-evaluate at a later date, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. There is currently no timetable for his return. After a breakout season in 2022 which saw him finish tenth in NL Cy Young voting, Wright’s struggled in 2023, working to a 5.79 ERA in five starts. It seems likely the shoulder played a part in that step back, given Wright dealt with shoulder problems during spring training, and started the season on the IL. That’s a blow for Wright, who made 30 starts and pitched to a 3.19 ERA last season. The Braves, at least, are in a good position to weather the loss of Wright, with Spencer Strider, Max Fried and Charlie Morton all well established arms in Atlanta’s rotation, and Bryce Elder enjoying a strong start to the season.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Shohei Ohtani, Julio Urias, Aaron Nola, Ian Happ, Juan Soto, Marcell Ozuna

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Episode 3 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well; use this link to find the show on Spotify and this one for Apple. You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Simon Hampton is joined by MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes to discuss a wide range of topics around the baseball world:

  • We discuss Tim’s 2023-24 Free Agent Power Rankings article, including the contract Shohei Ohtani might command, as well as the markets for Aaron Nola and Julio Urias (3:26)
  • The Cubs and Ian Happ agree to a surprising three-year, $61MM extension. So did the player or the club get better value out of this deal? (18:41)
  • A busy week on the extension front includes the Twins agreeing to a four-year, $73.5MM contract with starter Pablo Lopez. We discuss the improvements Lopez has made this season and give our thoughts on the contract (23:04)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Why do the Giants only seem willing to spend money on position players, and not starting pitchers?  This question also includes our thoughts on the Logan Webb contract (26:59)
  • As Juan Soto gets off to a slow start in 2023, is there any hope for him to return to his 2021 numbers and what does this mean for extension talks? (31:24)
  • Are the Braves wasting a roster spot on Marcell Ozuna? (36:22)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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Welcome to the year’s first edition of the 2023-24 MLB free agent power rankings!  With this series we will attempt to rank players who are on track for free agency after the 2023 season, by measure of their estimated earning power.

MLBTR will take periodic looks at the top of the class from now through the remainder of the season.  Season performance will start to influence these rankings, but 11 or 12 games into the season, it’s not much of a factor in the April edition.  By the end of the season, 2023 results will matter quite a bit.  A strong platform year can elevate any player’s status in free agency, just as a poor walk year can tank their stock.

For the full list of 2023-24 MLB free agents, click here.

Our power rankings are compiled collaboratively by myself and MLBTR writers Anthony Franco, Steve Adams, and Darragh McDonald.  Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given indications they may forgo the opportunity to return to the market.

The 2023-24 MLB free agent class is an odd one.  It’s headed up by Shohei Ohtani, the Angels’ incredible two-way superstar, but seems to fall short of last winter’s class that was led by Aaron Judge and four star shortstops.

As can often happen, the 2023-24 class has had some of its thunder stolen by extensions.  Notably, Manny Machado and Rafael Devers inked extensions in excess of $300MM.  Yu Darvish and Miles Mikolas came off the market this year as well.  Other players who would have been free agents after ’23 had they not signed extensions include Matt Olson, Tyler Glasnow, Luis Castillo, Ozzie Albies, Yoan Moncada, Ryan McMahon, and Kyle Freeland.  And just a few hours prior to the publishing of this list, the Cubs agreed to an odd three-year deal to retain Ian Happ, who had been ranked eighth.  Additional players from the list below may also come off the board with extensions before free agency opens in November.

Let’s get to it!

1.  Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Angels:  Ohtani signed with the Angels in December 2017, generating significant hype given his ability to serve as both a starting pitcher and regular designated hitter.  He’d done so for five years as a member of NPB’s Nippon Ham Fighters.  No one knew how this experiment would go, as even Babe Ruth quickly phased out pitching after he started setting home run records in 1919.

Scouts were skeptical, but Ohtani posted a huge 149 wRC+ in 367 plate appearances as a rookie, while also pitching to a 3.31 ERA in ten starts.  The performance netted him the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2018.  But aside from dealing with blisters that year, Ohtani came down with an elbow sprain in June.  He got a platelet-rich plasma injection, stopped pitching for the season, and continued hitting.  He returned to the mound for a brief outing in September that year, and then underwent Tommy John surgery after the season ended.

Ohtani was still able to hit in 2019, returning in May of that year and posting a 120 wRC+ on the season.  That campaign ended early with surgery to address a bipartite patella in his left knee.  The pandemic delayed the start of the 2020 season, resulting in a gap of nearly two years between Major League pitching appearances for Ohtani.

Based on where he went in my fantasy baseball drafts in March 2021, expectations were relatively low for Ohtani entering that season.  Ohtani shattered those expectations, winning the AL MVP award in ’21 and finishing second in ’22.  He posted a 146 wRC+ with 80 home runs in 1,305 plate appearances during that time.  Ohtani also made 51 starts across 296 1/3 innings, posting a 2.70 ERA and 31.4 K%.  His pitching performance netted a fourth place Cy Young finish in 2022.

Over the past two seasons, Ohtani accomplished what many thought simply could not be done in modern MLB.  Ohtani, who turns 29 in July, is simultaneously one of the best hitters and pitchers in MLB.  He was worth 17.5 WAR from 2021-22, edging out Aaron Judge for the best in the game.  Ohtani is a once-in-a-lifetime sensation at the peak of his abilities.

Ohtani is earning an arbitration-record $30MM this year, and he’s on track for free agency after the season.  Angels owner Arte Moreno was unwilling to part with Ohtani despite trade offers last summer, just as he was ultimately unwilling to sell his team this winter despite soliciting bids.  Moreno hopes to retain his two-way star, but told reporters, “Ohtani has to want to be here too.”  Moreno expressed willingness to go over the competitive balance tax threshold, but also admitted that the club has not had discussions with Ohtani.

The Angels have never had a winning season in Ohtani’s five years with the club, though that might change in 2023.  Asked about the extension possibility in February, agent Nez Balelo said, “I’ve always been open to it. But there’s several layers to this one, and Shohei’s earned the right to play through the year, explore free agency, and we’ll see where it shakes out.”

So, what actually drives Shohei Ohtani?  There’s evidence it’s not entirely money, since he chose to come to MLB at age 23.  His age limited him to a $2.3MM signing bonus, when waiting two more years could’ve resulted in over $100MM more.  Ohtani’s six other finalists in 2017 were the Mariners, Rangers, Cubs, Padres, Dodgers and Giants.  At the time, Balelo said, “While there has been much speculation about what would drive Shohei’s decision, what mattered to him most wasn’t market size, time zone or league but that he felt a true bond with the Angels.”

Still, many have noted that most of Ohtani’s finalists were on the West Coast.  And it’s certainly logical that after accomplishing so much as an individual, Ohtani will focus on joining a team he believes will be a perennial contender.  The Dodgers and Padres are oft-cited potential matches, and most expect the Mets to be heavily involved.  The Giants took two large swings at star players last winter, and the Yankees and Mariners shouldn’t be discounted.  I’m sure you could name a half-dozen at least semi-reasonable fits.  In terms of payroll commitments for 2024 and beyond, the Dodgers, Giants, and Mariners are much better-positioned than the Yankees, Padres, and Mets, though it’s difficult to picture Steve Cohen staying out of the fray.

The largest contract in MLB history remains Mookie Betts’ 12-year, $365MM extension in July 2020, though it included significant deferrals.  Ohtani’s teammate Mike Trout received $360MM in new money back in 2019.  So no one has even signed for $400MM yet, though the Padres reportedly offered Judge around $415MM and the Nationals offered Juan Soto $440MM.

No one doubts that Ohtani will become the first player to truly top the $400MM barrier, and common speculation is that he will reach $500MM.  Where will the bidding stop for a generational talent and marketing bonanza such as Ohtani?  I’m not willing to rule out a $600MM contract, though perhaps something in the $550MM range could represent a sweet spot.

The 2022-23 offseason included a trend toward extra-long contracts, with Machado, Trea Turner, and Xander Bogaerts all getting 11-year contracts paying through age 40.  The goal of those was to reduce the average annual value and accompanying CBT hit.  Going through age 40 would mean a 12-year contract for Ohtani, though I personally think a 14-year term has a chance of passing MLB’s scrutiny.  It’s been suggested that the Padres’ concept of paying Judge through age 44 wouldn’t have passed muster, but that’s not to say going through age 42 is off the table.

If Ohtani aims for maximum dollars and the $40MM standard only Judge has achieved on a long-term deal, I think 14 years and $560MM could be an end point.  There’s also an argument that since Ohtani is both an elite hitter and pitcher, he should land an average annual value in excess of $45MM or even $50MM.  Max Scherzer currently holds the record at $43,333,333.33 per year, though only Judge received $40MM for more than three years.

I could also be wildly wrong and Ohtani could fall well short of the $560MM guess.  Nor do I have any idea whether Ohtani will accept the largest deal proposed to him.  Buckle up for what could be the most fascinating and frenzied free agency in MLBTR’s 17-year history.  Our Ohtani page can be found here, which we’ll be beefing up with some additional quality content soon.

2.  Julio Urias, SP, Dodgers:  Urias may not generate the hype of Ohtani, but the lefty is a former prodigy in his own right and our clear #2 for earning power in this free agent class.  After being handled carefully as a minor leaguer, Urias made his Major League debut for the Dodgers at the age of 19, way back in 2016.  His pitch counts were kept low, and at the end of a successful season Urias made two playoff appearances for the Dodgers, including an NLCS start.

Unfortunately, Urias came down with a serious shoulder injury in June 2017, and anterior capsule surgery was required.  He went nearly 16 months between MLB appearances.  In 2019, Urias was again handled carefully, pitching out of the bullpen more often than the rotation.  That year, he was arrested on suspicion of domestic violence, according to the LAPD.  MLB ultimately issued a 20-game suspension.

Urias entered 2020 without restrictions, and wound up making ten starts in the pandemic-shortened season.  He was utilized creatively in the postseason that year, making two starts and four multi-inning relief appearances.  Urias memorably got the last seven outs in Game 6 of the 2020 World Series, freezing Willy Adames with a called strike for the last one and getting mobbed by his Dodgers teammates after winning it all.

Urias further turned a corner in 2021, topping 200 innings between the regular season and postseason – easily a career-high.  He won 20 games with a 2.96 ERA and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting.  He followed that up in 2022 with a third-place Cy Young finish and an NL-best 2.16 ERA.

Despite a 2.57 ERA from 2021-22 that ranked second among all qualified starters, Urias can’t quite be described as dominant.  His 25.2 K% during that time was still above-average, ranking 21st among starters.  His pinpoint control was even better, with a 5.5 BB% that ranked ninth.  Much of Urias’ success can be attributed to his ability to limit hard contact.  His BABIP was just .251 from 2021-22, third-lowest in MLB, and his Statcast hard-hit rate ranked second each year.  Urias is not particularly adept at getting groundballs, but fewer of the flyballs he allows leave the yard.

So Urias’ case as one of the best pitchers in baseball is based more on great control and weak contact than it is punching out batters.  His results are undeniable.  But the factor that sends his earning power through the roof is his age: he does not turn 27 until August.  Because players so rarely debut at the age of 19, it follows that a free agent ace entering his age-27 season is extremely uncommon.  We have seen it on the position player side, such as Bryce Harper and Manny Machado hitting free agency in advance of their age-26 campaigns.

Pitchers are seen as greater risks than position players, so Harper’s 13-year term probably isn’t happening with Urias.  On the other hand, last offseason’s trend for star free agents was all about reaching a specific total, with the years and average annual value being secondary.  Agent Scott Boras likely has a clear target to attempt to top: Stephen Strasburg’s $245MM, a contract he brokered in December 2019.  If getting there requires a term that would’ve previously been considered untenable, such as nine or ten years, that wouldn’t shock me.

It is worth noting that Strasburg’s contract has been a disaster due to injuries.  Urias’ shoulder surgery will be more than six years behind him when he hits free agency, but a clean bill of health will be crucial to any monster long-term deal.  There’s also the matter of Urias’ good-but-not-amazing strikeout rate in an age where some starters can whiff more than 30% of batters faced.  Urias doesn’t have that, and his fastball averages 93 miles per hour rather than 97.  So while I think Boras’ goal and expectation will be $250MM+, it remains to be seen whether Urias can secure the second-largest pitcher contract of all-time behind Gerrit Cole’s $324MM.

Where do the Dodgers stand on Urias?  The club has been perfectly willing to let star free agents leave, while also retaining other long-time Dodgers or occasionally plucking a top free agent from another team.  In other words, there’s no way to know their intentions with Urias based on their history.  I will say that I could see the potential risk being too high for the Dodgers, and it’s possible they focus their efforts on Ohtani or other top free agent pitchers.

3.  Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies:  Nola and Urias will make for an interesting comparison, if both reach the open market after the season.

Nola turns 30 in June, so he’s about three years older than Urias.  Nola was drafted seventh overall by the Phillies in 2014 out of Louisiana State, making his MLB debut the following year at the age of 22.  He was seen as more of a high floor than a high ceiling pitcher at the time.

Nola experienced an early-career hiccup in August of 2016, when he hit the IL for an elbow strain.  That injury ended Nola’s season after 20 starts.  Nola was able to recover from the strain without surgery, and has not gone on the IL for an arm injury since.  Furthermore, Nola has become the game’s preeminent workhorse, leading all pitchers in innings from 2018-22.

Nola is much more ace than innings guy, however, having turned a corner in 2018 with a third-place Cy Young finish.  He also finished seventh in 2020, and fourth in ’22.  Like Urias, Nola works around 93 miles per hour, but the Phillies’ righty has racked up strikeouts at an elite clip.  From 2020-22, Nola whiffed 30% of batters faced, ninth in MLB among qualified starters.  His control is even better than that of Urias, with a 4.9 BB% during that time that ranked fourth among starters.

Nola added his first playoff experience last year in the Phillies’ run to the World Series.  A pair of excellent starts helped the Phillies advance, though he faltered in the NLCS and World Series.

Nola’s groundball rate has slipped in recent years, and his Statcast marks haven’t been consistently excellent the way Urias’ have.  That means Nola’s home run rate and batting average on balls in play can fluctuate season-to-season.  That’s how he was able to post a 2.37 ERA in 2018 but a 4.63 mark in 2021 despite arguably demonstrating better skills in the latter season.

Back when Nola had three years of MLB service, he inked a four-year extension with the Phillies that included a club option on a fifth year, which the Phillies gladly exercised.  If he remains healthy and effective in 2023, a contract north of $200MM has to be in play if Nola reaches the open market.

Nola and the Phillies have shown mutual interest in a contract extension this year, with offers being exchanged in February.  Talks were tabled when an agreement could not be reached prior to the season, but both Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and agent Joe Longo spoke positively of rekindling discussions after the season.  That can be difficult when free agency is days rather than months or years away, but it has happened before and remains a possibility here.

4.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Orix Buffaloes: Back in February, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote that there is “strong belief among MLB teams” that Yamamoto will be posted by the Buffaloes after the season.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote, “Yamamoto is already a four-time NPB All-Star and has taken home both the Pacific League MVP Award and the Sawamura Award (Japan’s equivalent to MLB’s Cy Young Award) in each of the past two seasons.”

Adams compiled stats and various scouting reports suggesting Yamamoto could profile as an ace or something close to it in MLB as well.  But the kicker is that Yamamoto doesn’t turn 25 until August, so he’s two years younger than even Urias.  Pitchers this good and this young can basically only come through international free agency, and Yamamoto will be right at the age that allows for the full bidding war that Ohtani passed on when he came over.

Masahiro Tanaka comes to mind as a someone who moved from NPB to MLB at the same age and at a time when there was open bidding on posted players.  Tanaka’s deal with the Yankees was finalized in January 2014.  That was a seven-year, $155MM contract plus a $20MM posting fee.  That contract notably included an opt-out clause after the fourth season.

The current posting agreement calls for 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of the remainder.  Using a $200MM contract as an example, the posting fee would be $31.875MM.  The posting fee is not part of the competitive balance tax calculation, however, presenting a carrot to teams that carry payrolls high enough to be affected by the CBT.

Ten years after the Tanaka deal, I feel Yamamoto is indeed capable of reaching $200MM before accounting for a posting fee.  However, in this age where teams try to stretch out contracts as long as possible, given his youth Yamamoto might prefer either the flexibility to opt out, the total expiration of the contract while he’s still young enough to be a desirable free agent again, or both.  Though Ohtani will loom large over this offseason, Yamamoto getting posted would be a huge story in its own right.

5.  Matt Chapman, 3B, Blue Jays:  The conversation about Matt Chapman starts with his stellar defense at third base.  Since breaking in with the A’s in 2017, Chapman has snagged three Gold Glove awards, most recently in 2021.

Statcast Outs Above Average backs up Chapman’s defensive excellence, as he’s ranked in the top four at third base in 2017, ’18, and ’19 and first in ’21.  Pandemic-shortened season aside, the only interruption in Chapman’s run of top-shelf defense, at least according to the numbers, was in 2022.  He graded out as more of an average defender last year.  While Chapman’s reputation deservedly holds strong, a strong showing this year will only help his earning power in free agency.

From 2018-19 with the A’s, Chapman’s bat aligned with his glove to push him into 6-WAR superstar territory.  Chapman posted a 132 wRC+ during that time, mashing 60 home runs.  Chapman’s strikeout rate climbed to a dangerous level in the shortened 2020 season, and then he underwent surgery to repair a torn right hip labrum in September of that year.  Chapman had his worst year with the bat in 2021, and the A’s shipped him to Toronto in March 2022 as part of their post-lockout fire sale.

Chapman’s strikeout rate climbed and his batting average plummeted since 2020, though he’s remained an above-average hitter.  He posted a solid 117 wRC+ in 2022, with 90th percentile-range Statcast metrics suggesting room for more.  That has indeed been the case in the early going of 2023, though it’s only been 48 plate appearances at the time of this writing.

Chapman’s 30th birthday is approaching this month, so he’ll play next year at 31.  That could invite comparisons to the free agent contracts signed by Marcus Semien and George Springer, with seven and six-year terms respectively.

However, I keep harping on how the old free agency principles went out the window last winter, so Chapman and agent Scott Boras are hardly limited to a seven-year term.  It’s not difficult to picture a return to the 6-WAR level for Chapman this year and a contract expectation north of $200MM.

Asked about free agency in February, Chapman said all the right things, but there’s no known momentum toward a long-term deal with the Blue Jays.  With fellow third basemen Manny Machado and Rafael Devers staying put, Chapman has emerged as the top non-Ohtani free agent position player of the 2023-24 free agent class.

6.  Lucas Giolito, SP, White Sox: Giolito was drafted 16th overall by the Nationals in 2012 out of Harvard-Westlake High School.  He was a key piece on the trade that sent Adam Eaton to the Nats in December 2016.

Giolito struggled mightily in his first full season in the Majors in 2018, and then did a complete about-face in 2019 by making the All-Star team and finishing sixth in the AL Cy Young voting.  He finished seventh and 11th in the years that followed, posting a 3.47 ERA with a 30.7 K% from 2019-21.

Giolito’s performance fell off quite a bit in 2022.  His average fastball velocity dropped from 93.9 miles per hour to 92.6, and his strikeout and walk rates both went in the wrong direction.  While Giolito’s spin rates did go down quite a bit with the June 2021 sticky stuff crackdown, that’s overly simplistic as a complete explanation for his decline.  As John Foley of Pitcher List wrote, “Rather than it being one clear issue to blame, it seems Giolito dealt with a number of seemingly smaller things – perhaps the early season core injury, the COVID illness, the new bulk on his frame, or the changed ability to grip the ball, or some combination thereof – that resulted in subtle mechanical tweaks that decreased the quality of his stuff, reduced the deception in his delivery, and broke down how well his pitches tunneled together.”

It’s far too early to tell whether Giolito will right the ship in 2023.  And even if Giolito doesn’t come all the way back to his 2019-21 levels, he reinvented himself once before, and there are teams that have had more success coaxing the most out of starting pitchers than the White Sox.  For all the extensions the White Sox have worked out, a deal with Giolito doesn’t appear to be in the cards.  Giolito, still only 29 in July, figures to secure an opt-out if his 2023 performance disappoints.

7.  Teoscar Hernandez – RF, Mariners:  Hernandez was signed by the Astros for $20K out of the Dominican Republic in 2011.  The club shipped Hernandez and Nori Aoki to the Blue Jays for Francisco Liriano at the 2017 trade deadline.  Prior to that season, Hernandez was considered a 55-grade prospect by Baseball America.

Jose Bautista’s departure opened up a spot for Hernandez in 2018, and he became a starter at the outfield corners for the Jays.  After a couple years of slightly above-average offensive production, Hernandez turned a corner in 2020 with a 142 wRC+ and 16 homers in 207 plate appearances.  That power was no fluke, as Hernandez posted a 131 wRC+ from 2021-22 with 57 home runs, cutting his strikeout rate a bit as an added bonus.  He picked up Silver Slugger awards and MVP votes in both ’20 and ’21.

Overall as a hitter, Hernandez is known for big power, top of the chart Statcast metrics, a still-high strikeout rate, and a middling walk rate.  Though he has a strong arm, Hernandez’s right field defense typically grades as below-average.  Since 2020, the total package has resulted in about 4 WAR per 650 plate appearances.  Hernandez has not actually reached that plate appearance plateau, however, as he’s had IL stints for multiple oblique strains.  He’s set to turn 31 in October.

Seeking a controllable bullpen arm and perhaps some payroll flexibility, the Blue Jays traded Hernandez to the Mariners last November for setup man Erik Swanson as well as prospect Adam Macko.  The Mariners have given no signal an extension is in the works for Hernandez, and they beat him in an arbitration hearing in February.  He may wind up a one-year rental for Seattle.

As a free agent, Hernandez gives off some Nick Castellanos vibes, though we think he can top that player’s $100MM deal.  Hernandez lost a key competitor in the market with Ian Happ signing a three-year extension with the Cubs.

8.  Jordan Montgomery, SP – Cardinals: Montgomery, a 30-year-old lefty, was drafted by the Yankees in the fourth round out of the University of South Carolina back in 2014.  He was able to land the team’s fifth starter job out of camp as a rookie in 2017, though he was not needed until April 12th.

Montgomery had a strong year for the 2017 Yankees despite getting pushed out of the rotation occasionally due to the team’s trades, putting up a 3.88 ERA in 29 starts and finishing sixth in the AL Rookie of the Year voting.

Montgomery opened 2018 as the Yankees’ fifth starter once again, but unfortunately went down for Tommy John surgery in June.  His recovery resulted in a 16.5 month gap between MLB appearances, as the lefty got in a couple of brief September appearances in ’19.  Pandemic year aside, Montgomery returned to his rookie-year level of performance with a solid 2021 season for New York.

At the trade deadline last year, the Yankees made the surprising choice to ship Montgomery to the Cardinals for center fielder Harrison Bader, who was on the IL at the time.  The jury is still out on that trade, but thus far in 13 starts for the Cardinals running into this year, Montgomery has posted a 2.97 ERA.  He also contributed a scoreless appearance for the Cards in last year’s Wild Card game.

Montgomery has bumped up his velocity post Tommy John, now working above 93 miles per hour on average.  Last year he posted a 21.8 K% that improved when he joined the Cardinals, as well as a fine 5% walk rate that fits with his strong control.  It’ll be interesting to see if Montgomery can continue to push his strikeout rate forward, which would only help his earning power.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco and Steve Adams pushed for Montgomery to get a spot on this list, suggesting a strong season could vault him past the new Jameson Taillon–Taijuan Walker $70MM tier, perhaps to the $100MM range.  He’s got upside to climb as high as sixth in our power rankings this year.

9.  Josh Hader, RP – Padres:  Hader was a 19th round draft pick by the Orioles out of Maryland’s Old Mill High School back in 2012.  At the 2013 trade deadline, the Orioles sent Hader, L.J. Hoes, and a competitive balance round A pick to the Astros for Bud Norris.  Two years later, however, the Astros sent Hader, Adrian Houser, Brett Phillips, and Domingo Santana to the Brewers for Mike Fiers, Carlos Gomez, and cash.  So that makes two players on this list who were traded away as Astros prospects by Jeff Luhnow.

Hader made his MLB debut for the Brewers in 2017 as a reliever.  At the time, he was still thought to be a starter long-term.  However, as sometimes happens, Hader was so good in the bullpen that the Brewers were never willing or able to move him back into a starting role.  He made his first All-Star team with a dominant 2018, posting an obscene 46.7 K% and finishing seventh in the Cy Young voting.  Hader was used as a multi-inning weapon that year, getting more than three outs 33 times and averaging 1.47 innings per appearance.

The following year, Hader replicated his huge strikeout rate and made another All-Star team.  It was also the last time he averaged more than an inning per appearance.  He racked up 37 saves and inched closer to being used in a traditional stopper role.  Hader made All-Star teams again in ’21 and ’22.

At last year’s trade deadline, three games up in the NL Central, the Brewers attempted to thread the needle by trading Hader to the Padres.  In theory, they could shed some payroll in ’22 and ’23, replace Hader in the bullpen with Taylor Rogers, and pick up prospects Esteury Ruiz and Robert Gasser along the way.  While that plan did not pan out for Milwaukee, Hader also had a rough entry to his Padres career.  He’d already torched his ERA in two appearances prior to the trade, and then shortly after joining the Padres allowed 12 earned runs in three innings.

Hader then righted the ship for the Padres, closing out the regular season by allowing one run in 11 1/3 innings.  He then dropped an additional 5 1/3 scoreless innings in a dominant postseason.  The Padres had no problem paying Hader $14.1MM for his final arbitration year in ’23.

Hader is a lanky 29-year-old lefty who has generally worked in the 95-97 mile per hour range.  He remains capable of striking out more than 40% of batters faced, allowing 10-11% to reach base via the free pass.  The walks can be less than ideal, and Hader has also been burned by the longball at times.  He’s a flyball pitcher, made worse by a 14% career home run per flyball rate.  In a 60-inning season it would be normal for Hader to allow seven or eight home runs, and in 2019 he gave up 15 bombs.

Despite those flaws, Hader can still be one of baseball’s most dominant relievers, hugely valuable for teams with postseason expectations.  Edwin Diaz’s record five-year, $102MM deal could be in play for Hader with a big year, or perhaps he could land in the $80-90MM range occupied by Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman in the 2016-17 offseason.

10.  Blake Snell, SP – Padres: Snell, 31 in December, was drafted 52nd overall by the Rays in 2011 out of Shorewood High School in Washington.  He was a supplemental draft pick the Rays received for the loss of free agent Brad Hawpe.

Prior to his 2016 Major League debut, Snell ascended to become a consensus top-15 prospect in the game.  The lefty didn’t really settle into the Rays’ rotation until the end of 2017.  2018 was a special year for Snell, as he won the AL Cy Young award, also making the All-Star team and grabbing MVP votes.  His 1.89 ERA topped the American League, and he won 21 games while pitching a career-high 180 2/3 innings.  That was the year Snell’s strikeout rate shot upward past 30%, a level he’s maintained since.  Snell’s dominant 2018 performance led to a five-year, $50MM contract extension prior to 2019.

In July of 2019, Snell underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery, knocking him out for nearly two months.  He made it through the shortened 2020 season unscathed, famously getting pulled by manager Kevin Cash in Game 6 of the World Series after 73 pitches and 5 1/3 innings, having allowed one run on two hits.

Two months later, the Rays moved on from Snell, trading him to the Padres for four players.  He tallied 256 2/3 innings from 2021-22, including time missed for gastroenteritis and multiple groin strains.

Snell received a cortisone shot for his elbow in February 2020, but technically he hasn’t been on the IL for an arm injury since his surgery nearly four years ago.  The knock on Snell is less health and more that he’s never been one to go deep into games.  He averaged over 5.8 innings per start in his Cy Young season, but has otherwise come in south of 5.4.  And from 2019-21, he managed only 4.7 innings per start.  Part of the issue is Snell’s walk rate, which sits north of 10% for his career and can climb above 12%.  In 2022, the average starting pitcher worked 5.2 innings per start, walking 7.5% of batters.

As a lefty working at 95-96 miles per hour, Snell still has the ability to dominate, as evidenced by his high strikeout rates.  And the game has been trending toward shorter starts, with teams increasingly reluctant to let their starter face a lineup a third time.  Snell’s 5.33 innings per start in 2022 ranked 81st in MLB among those with at least 15 starts.  While that’s not impressive, it also wasn’t far off from Charlie Morton (5.55), Jameson Taillon (5.53), Nathan Eovaldi (5.46), Taijuan Walker (5.42), Lucas Giolito and Luis Severino (5.37).  It’s also ahead of several players who got $12MM+ per year in free agency, like Jose Quintana, Ross Stripling, and Mike Clevinger.

Perhaps Snell’s Cy Young season created unreasonable expectations, but he remains a very good pitcher with ample postseason experience.  With a typical season, he should be able to top Taijuan Walker’s four-year, $72MM deal.

Honorable Mentions

Other players considered for this list, or who have a chance to play their way onto it, include Max Scherzer, Luis Severino, Tyler Mahle, Sean Manaea, Harrison Bader, Michael Conforto, Amed Rosario, and Jung Hoo Lee.  Of course, one of the best parts of baseball is surprising performances, and we’ll revisit the 2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings every month.

Phillies, Aaron Nola End Extension Negotiations Until After The Season

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Last month, the Phillies and Aaron Nola’s representatives were reportedly exchanging figures about a possible long-term contract extension, creating some feeling that a new deal might be in the works.  However, it doesn’t look like the two sides will reach agreement, as Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Alex Coffey (Twitter links) that the two sides have ended talks.

“We think the world of him, quality pitcher, quality human being, but sometimes you get to this point where you’re not able to consummate a deal that both sides feel comfortable,” Dombrowski said.  “We’re very open minded to trying to sign him at the end of the season.  We’re hopeful he’ll remain a Phillie for a long time.”

Joe Longo, Nola’s agent, also made a statement, telling Coffey that “we had good communication with the Phillies.  We just couldn’t agree at this time.  We’ll pick up the conversation again at the end of the season.”

Like most players, Nola indicated that he didn’t want negotiations to stretch beyond Opening Day, as he wanted to entirely focus on baseball once the season was underway.  With that unofficial deadline still five days away, it’s possible that either Nola’s camp or the Phillies could restart contract talks with one phone call, yet the public declarations by both Dombrowski and Longo would seemingly indicate that the matter has been put on hold.

Nola signed a four-year, $45MM extension with Philadelphia in February 2019, and that deal became a five-year, $56.75MM pact last November when the Phillies exercised their $16MM club option on Nola for the 2023 season.  There was no doubt that the option would be picked up, given how well Nola has pitched over his eight seasons for the reigning NL champions.  The 2022 campaign saw Nola post a career-best 6.3 fWAR over 205 innings while posting a 3.25 ERA and a range of excellent secondary metrics.

Between Nola’s performance, durability, and age (he doesn’t turn 30 until June), he will be one of the top names in the 2023-24 free agent class, let alone one of the top pitchers.  Shohei Ohtani is on his own level given his unique two-way status, but among regular pitchers, only Julio Urias might rival Nola for the top contract given to a hurler next winter.

While the Phillies aren’t shy about giving out big contracts, they would’ve had to pay handsomely in an extension in order to retain Nola so close to his first trip to the open market.  The club still retains exclusive negotiating rights with Nola until free agency officially opens (five days after the end of the World Series), yet it isn’t very common to see an extension struck with a top-tier player within that small window between the end of the season and the opening of the free agent window, and the Phillies would likely have to pay even more of a premium to extend Nola at that even later date.

That said, a reunion between the two sides shouldn’t be ruled out, even if the Phillies do end up bidding against other suitors.  The Phillies were able to re-sign J.T. Realmuto when the catcher entered the open market during the 2020-21 offseason, and spending in free agency hasn’t been an issue in general given how Philadelphia has landed the likes of Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Schwarber, Taijuan Walker, and Nick Castellanos to big multi-year deals.  The Phillies exceeded the luxury tax in 2022 and are projected to exceed the second tier ($253MM+) of tax penalties in 2023.

With Walker just signed to bolster the rotation this winter, Philadelphia has Nola under control through 2023, Wheeler through 2024, Ranger Suarez through 2025 via arbitration, and Walker through 2026.  Between this staggered list, Suarez’s relatively inexpensive price tag as an arb-eligible player, and the team’s hopes that younger arms like Bailey Falter, Andrew Painter, and Mick Abel can provide bargain production in the near future, it stands to reason that the Phillies might pursue re-signing Nola as a hedge against Wheeler’s possible departure following the 2024 campaign.  Or, it is possible that by season’s end, the Phillies are confident enough in their young pitching depth to let Nola leave, and recoup a draft pick as compensation (though the placement of that pick will fall due to the Phils’ status as luxury tax payors).

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