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Aaron Nola

Phillies Reportedly “Moving Closer” To Re-Signing Aaron Nola

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10:36AM: The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Phillies and Aaron Nola are “moving closer” on a reunion. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman and MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki also confirmed Nightengale’s report that talks between the sides have heated up in recent days.

9:55AM: The Phillies and right-hander Aaron Nola have both made clear a desire to see the righty ace return to Philadelphia on a long-term deal this offseason, dating back to before Nola was even officially a free agent. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale indicated this morning that there’s reason for optimism regarding a deal coming together between the two sides, noting that contract talks between the sides have “gained significant momentum” in recent days.

That, of course, doesn’t mean that an agreement between the two sides is imminent or even necessarily close, but it’s a notable development nonetheless. After all, it was just last week that reporting from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi indicated the sides were “not at all close” to a new deal while The Athletic’s Jayson Stark suggested that Phillies may not “go all out” to retain Nola, adding that interest from rival clubs made a seventh year on Nola’s contract possible. That’s a level the Phillies reportedly weren’t willing to go to in extension talks last spring, though it’s possible that the club has changed its tune since then.

Nightengale’s report goes on to suggest that Nola’s camp is seeking a seven-year, $210MM deal while the Phillies have countered with a six-year, $150MM offer at this point. Those price points are substantially closer than the four-to-five year pact that the Phillies reportedly offered Nola last offseason and the eight-year counter from Nola’s camp. That apparent progress in reaching a deal appears all the more encouraging with Nightengale suggesting that the sides are “getting close to finding a middle ground” between the two figures.

With one year and $60MM separating the two offers, there’s plenty of room for the sides to meet somewhere in the middle. Of note, the Phillies’ reported offer to Nola comes in just $12MM under the total guarantee left-hander Carlos Rodon secured from the Yankees last offseason over the same term, meaning virtually any movement from Philadelphia would allow Nola to secure a guarantee above that of Rodon. Speculatively speaking, the Phillies could offer Nola a higher AAV than Rodon over the same term if they’re unwilling to offer a seven-year deal to Nola, who will celebrate his 31st birthday next summer. Such a deal could fall in the $168MM to $180MM range in terms of total guarantee.

A seven-year pact would see Nola turn 37 in the final year of the deal. That’s an age the Phillies have shown a willingness to sign position players through: superstar first baseman Bryce Harper and marquee shortstop Trea Turner are signed through their age-38 and -40 seasons, respectively. That being said, the club hasn’t shown the same appetite for deals that would take pitchers into their late thirties. Zack Wheeler signed with the club on a five-year deal to become Nola’s co-ace in the Phillies rotation, though that deal will see him hit the open market next offseason following his age-34 campaign. That’s the same age former Phillies lefty Cole Hamels was signed through when he extended with the club back in 2012.

Even a six-year pact would be breaking new ground for the Phillies; while the club signed Hall of Famer Roy Halladay through his age-36 season, that deal was for just three years and $60MM. That’s a far cry from the nine-figure deal Nola figures to land. What’s more, any movement from the Phillies’ current price point of six years and $150MM would take Nola’s contract above what MLBTR projected for the right-hander in our annual Top 50 free agents list.

Despite all of this, it’s easy to see why the Phillies would make such a plunge to retain Nola’s services. Nola’s spent nine years with the club serving as a homegrown ace since his debut with the club back in 2015. In that time, he’s compiled a career 3.72 ERA (113 ERA+) and 3.38 FIP with a 27.2% strikeout rate. Since his breakout 2018 campaign where he earned his first career All Star appearance and finished third in NL Cy Young award voting, Nola has been even more impressive with a 3.65 ERA and 28% strikeout rate. On top of that quality production, Nola is among the most durable pitchers in the entire sport: he’s thrown more than 180 innings and made at least 32 starts in each of the last five 162-game seasons. Only Yankees ace Gerrit Cole has thrown more innings since the start of the 2018 campaign, while only Cole, Wheeler, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom have accumulated more fWAR than Nola’s 25.5 figure since then.

Should Nola and the Phillies ultimately come together on a new contract, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has previously indicated that the club’s starting rotation will be set for the 2024 campaign, likely taking Philadelphia out of the rotation market for the rest of the offseason. If a deal between the sides doesn’t get done, however, the club figures to be aggressive in looking to replace Nola with NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto among the club’s reported hypothetical targets. Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, and Sonny Gray are among the other potential top-of-the-rotation arms to be had on the free agent market, though Stark reports the club is “lukewarm” on Snell. The trade market could hold other alternatives to Nola for the Phils, such as Brewers ace Corbin Burnes or White Sox righty Dylan Cease.

Red Sox Exploring Top Of Rotation Market

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Starting pitching is a clear priority for the Red Sox. Boston’s new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow acknowledged as much last week, although they’re certainly not alone in that pursuit.

That could extend to the top end of the market. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote on Tuesday that the Sox were targeting front-line starting pitching. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests Boston is looking to add multiple starters this offseason. It stands to reason Breslow and his staff could look to pair an impact acquisition with a more affordable, if lower ceiling, addition.

Free agency offers a few possibilities. The Red Sox surely have some level of interest in Shohei Ohtani, but he wouldn’t be a factor in the 2024 rotation after his elbow procedure. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery are generally regarded as the next tier of free agent starters. AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray is probably below that group in earning power because he’s 34 years old but fits in terms of short-term impact.

This afternoon, Ian Browne of MLB.com suggested in an appearance on the ITM podcast that the Boston front office prefers Montgomery to Snell or Nola (Twitter link via Steve Perrault). Sox executives chatted with Montgomery’s representatives at the Boras Corporation during last week’s GM Meetings, although they’re presumably targeting multiple Boras clients to varying degrees. (Snell is also represented by the Boras Corp.)

Montgomery turned in a 3.20 ERA through 188 2/3 innings between the Cardinals and Rangers. It was third straight sub-4.00 showing over 30+ starts. Montgomery chipped in 31 frames of 2.90 ERA ball during Texas’ run to a World Series. During the regular season, the 30-year-old southpaw struck out a near-average 21.4% of opponents while keeping his walks to a tidy 6.2% clip.

He may not have the upside of Nola or Snell, each of whom misses more bats. Montgomery has better control than Snell and hasn’t had the spotty ERA or home run issues that have troubled Nola in two of the past three seasons, however. He also has the advantage of not requiring a signing team to surrender draft compensation. The midseason trade rendered Montgomery ineligible for the qualifying offer. Snell, Nola and Gray all received the QO. Yamamoto, of course, is not subject to the QO as a foreign professional.

Roster Resource projects the Sox for roughly $189MM in luxury tax commitments. That’s well below the $237MM base threshold, leaving plenty of potential spending room for Breslow and his staff. It’s also possible the Sox look to the trade market for rotation help. It’s difficult to envision the Rays trading Tyler Glasnow in division. Players like Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber could be available as they enter their final seasons of arbitration eligibility.

Boston’s current rotation mix is a high-variance unit. Nick Pivetta, Chris Sale, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock have all shown substantial upside.They also come with uncertainty to varying degrees. Houck and Whitlock might be better suited for relief. That could also be true of Pivetta, although he finished the 2023 season pitching very well over multiple innings. Sale has battled injuries and Bello seemed to wear down in the second half of his first full MLB season.

Phillies Rumors: Nola, Yamamoto, Snell, Hader

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Aaron Nola unsurprisingly rejected the Phillies’ one-year qualifying offer this week and is now squarely on the open market in search of a long-term contract. The Phils haven’t been shy about their hope to bring him back, with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski saying in an appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove last week that the team “loves” Nola and remains hopeful of working out a new contract (video link to the full nine-minute interview).

“We were not able to get him signed in spring training, which was unfortunate for us, but we understood his scenario,” Dombrowski said. “Now he’s in a spot where he has the ability to talk to 29 other clubs, so it doesn’t get any easier. But I do think there’s mutual interest in both parties trying to get something done. Hopefully for us we can get it done, because we absolutely love Aaron and what he does for the organization, not only as a person but on the field.”

More recently, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark took a look at the Phillies’ offseason decisions, writing this morning that other clubs don’t get the impression that the Phillies are willing to “go all out” to win a bidding war to retain Nola’s services. Some of that stems from the reportedly sizable gap the two parties faced in spring training. Some clubs feel the demand in Nola is substantial enough to push him to a seven-year contract, per Stark.

The Phillies ostensibly weren’t willing to go to that length (at least not at a premium annual value) back in spring, so at least logically speaking, there’s reason to doubt whether they’d be willing to do that now that Nola has pitched to a second pedestrian ERA in three seasons — albeit with still-pristine strikeout and walk rates and a big showing in the postseason.

Dombrowski was rather clear last week in asserting that the Phillies are only looking to add one starter. He stated in that MLBN appearance that if the Phils are able to re-sign Nola, their rotation will be “set.” The veteran baseball ops leader pointed to Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Taijuan Walker as locks for the rotation, adding that his club very much likes lefty Cristopher Sanchez — understandably so. The 26-year-old southpaw logged a 3.44 ERA in 99 1/3 innings, striking out 24.2% of his opponents against a brilliant 4% walk rate. Sanchez kept the ball on the ground at a terrific 57% clip as well.

While Nola may be the Phillies’ preference, bidding is expected to be competitive given his durability, command, ability to miss bats and his broader track record of run prevention. His ERA marks in 2021 and 2023 haven’t stood out, but teams regularly have demonstrated that they’re comfortable evaluating and projecting pitchers on far more than just their rudimentary earned run averages. Add in a perennially weak Phillies defense and homer-friendly home park, and it’s easy to see why other teams might be even more willing to take a pair of mid-4.00s from Nola with a grain of salt.

If Nola lands elsewhere, the Phillies will have to pursue other options, as Dombrowski alluded to. Longtime Phillies beat writer Jim Salisbury said in a radio appearance yesterday on WIP’s Midday Show that the Phils have “legitimate” interest in Yamamoto (Twitter link, with audio). They’re not connected to the 25-year-old NPB ace as frequently as other big-market clubs given the team’s general lack of success at luring star players from NPB and the KBO, but that shouldn’t expressly rule them out from making a winning bid and persuading Yamamoto to sign in Philadelphia, of course. Even teams with storied histories of signing NPB stars had to begin that track record at some point, after all.

One name not believed to be especially high on their list, per Stark, is that of likely Cy Young winner Blake Snell. Stark reports that the Phils are “lukewarm” on the lefty, though an eventual run at him could still take place if multiple preferred options land elsewhere.

It’s a similar story with closer Josh Hader, albeit for different reasons. While MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggested Monday the Phillies could be a match with Hader, Stark indicates that opposite, writing that the Phils prefer not to head into the season with a dedicated closer, which is surely a role that Hader will prioritize in free agency. He’s been exclusively a ninth-inning (or later) option for the Brewers and Padres in each of the past three seasons and hasn’t worked more than one inning in an appearance since Sept. 2019. Even if the Phillies love Hader — and presumably, just about every team loves him from a pure talent perspective — their preferred usage of him might not align with Hader’s own goals on the market.

Readers — Phillies fans in particular — will want to check out Stark’s column in full, as it contains multiple quotes from Dombrowski and plenty of context on the former Marlins, Tigers and Red Sox front office leader’s tendencies in the offseason.

Seven Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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All seven players who received a $20.325MM qualifying offer this year have rejected it, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deadline for a decision is today at 3 pm Central but it seems all of Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Sonny Gray, Josh Hader, Aaron Nola and Blake Snell have already made up their minds.

There wasn’t much drama with any of these decisions, as all seven were considered locks to reject and still collect sizeable free agent contracts. On MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents, six of the seven player were predicted to get a nine-figure deal in the coming months. The only exception was Gray, who was limited by his 34 years of age to a prediction of $90MM over four years. The players had one week to gauge the market after receiving those QOs and it doesn’t seem any of them got any sense that accepting the one-year deal was a wise course of action.

There would have been more drama if some borderline candidates had been issued QOs, but it was a fairly conservative group this winter. Last year, 12 players received QOs and Martín Pérez and Joc Pederson eventually accepted. But none of this year’s on-the-cusp players got the offer, with each of Teoscar Hernández, Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, Rhys Hoskins, Kenta Maeda and Kevin Kiermaier heading into free agency unencumbered.

Each of the players who received and rejected the QO will now net their former club draft pick compensation in the event they sign elsewhere this winter. The value of that compensation will depend upon whether the club received revenue sharing or paid the competitive balance tax in 2023. The signing club would also be subject to draft pick forfeiture and perhaps a reduction of international bonus pool space, with the penalty also dependant on revenue sharing and CBT status.

Yankees Notes: Nola, Yamamoto, Peralta, Bailey

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While hitting upgrades have dominated the Yankees’ offseason narrative to date, the team is certainly also keeping an eye on the pitching market, including some top-shelf names.  MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via X) writes that the “Yankees are among the most active teams” exploring pitchers thus far, with such names as Aaron Nola and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on their list of targets.

The Yankees’ interest in Yamamoto is well known, and while Nola is a new face linked to the Bronx Bombers, it makes perfect sense why Nola would be of interest.  No opponent would relish facing Gerrit Cole and Nola in a short playoff series, and Nola’s durability would be a significant boost to a New York rotation that has some question marks heading into 2024.  Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes were plagued by injuries last season, Clarke Schmidt has only one full season as a big league starter under his belt, and Michael King (who is being tapped to remain in the rotation) has even less experience as a starter.

If everyone is healthy and if King and Schmidt can pitch as well as they did in 2023, this could be one of baseball’s best rotations on paper.  However, signing Nola, Yamamoto, or another stabilizing force to the front end of the staff would both clear up some of the uncertainty, and perhaps allow the Bombers some more flexibility with their other offseason moves.  For instance, younger pitchers like Yoendrys Gomez or Randy Vasquez might become trade chips, or perhaps even Schmidt might be shopped to land a bat.  While King will be given every opportunity to stick as a starter, the Yankees would be more open to reinstalling him as a bullpen weapon if they were more comfortable with the rest of their rotation.

Of course, it should be noted that signing Rodon last winter was supposed to deepen the rotation, but Rodon was ineffective in the first year of his six-year, $162MM contract.  Rodon’s struggles won’t preclude New York from again spending big on a starter, though it might change the general focus of their search.  For instance, Nola has averaged just under 199 innings pitched in each of the last five full MLB seasons, so he has a much longer track record of good health and consistent success.

The Yankees’ pitching endeavors also reach to the bullpen, as Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports that the club has interest in re-signing Wandy Peralta, though the left-hander hasn’t yet been presented with a formal offer.  Peralta has a 2.82 ERA over 153 innings with the Yankees since being acquired in the Mike Tauchman trade with the Giants in April 2021, and he is among baseball’s best at keeping the ball on the ground with a 56.3% grounder rate over the last three seasons.  While a .256 BABIP has helped Peralta’s cause, he is also very good at limiting hard contact, making it easier for his fielders to handle any balls in play.

This grounder-heavy arsenal and a relative lack of strikeouts makes Peralta prone to outperforming his peripherals, though he took this to extremes in 2023.  Peralta’s 2.83 ERA and .293 xOBA were well below his 4.44 SIERA and .332 xwOBA, and his walk rate (which has usually been below average anyway) spiked to a dismal 13.2%.  It could just be a one-year blip that it probably won’t be enough to prevent Peralta from landing a multi-year free agent deal, yet it does serve as a potential red flag for suitors.  Since the Yankees know Peralta better than any other club, their continued interest is perhaps a sign that they don’t see the control issue as a long-term problem, or it could be the Yankees are just monitoring Peralta to see if he can be retained at a relative bargain price.

In some Yankees news off the field, Andrew Bailey interviewed with the team on Monday about the bench coach job, according to the New York Post’s Joel Sherman.  Bailey is no stranger to the Bronx, as his eight seasons as a big league pitcher included a stint with the Yankees in 2015.  Formerly the Giants’ pitching coach for the last four seasons, Bailey is now out of contract and is known to be getting consideration from not just the Yankees as a bench coach, but also from the Orioles and Red Sox as a pitching coach candidate.  Sherman adds that the Marlins also have interest in Bailey as a pitching coach, and that Bailey “turned down an opportunity to be considered by the White Sox” for an unspecified role.

Braves Notes: Grissom, Rotation, Payroll

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The Braves’ decision to decline their $9MM club option on Eddie Rosario created a vacancy in left field, and the team is still deciding how to go about patching that need. Among internal options, former top infield prospect Vaughn Grissom appears to be the leading candidate. Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos acknowledged that playing Grissom in left field is a possibility “because he’s a tremendous athlete” (link via David O’Brien of The Athletic). Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes that Anthopoulos also said at last week’s GM Meetings that Grissom has already expressed an openness to play anywhere on the field.

Grissom, 23 in January, broke into the Majors on a blistering hot streak in 2022, hitting .347/.398/.558 in his first 103 plate appearances. His bat went cold to close out that season, however, and he didn’t provide much offense in scattershot looks throughout the 2023 campaign. In all, he’s followed those 103 torrid trips to the plate with 133 plate appearances of .240/.293/.289 output. However, Grissom looked like he little to prove in Triple-A this past season, mashing at a .330/.419/.501 rate in a much larger sample of 468 plate appearances.

Though the organization is clearly open to the idea of testing Grissom’s natural athleticism in the outfield, it should be noted that he’s yet to log a single professional inning on the grass. He’s played exclusively shortstop (2140 innings), second base (792 innings) and third base (235 innings) between the big leagues and the minors, playing the two middle infield spots exclusively in the big leagues.

Of course, regular playing time at any of those spots will be hard to come by in 2024. Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley have second base and third base locked down, respectively. Former utilityman Orlando Arcia seized the everyday shortstop job after Dansby Swanson departed in free agency, hitting .264/.321/.420 with 17 home runs in 139 games. It’s fair to point out that Arcia has a limited track record and also faded in the season’s final month (.200/.260/.316 from Sept. 1 onward), but the strength of his season overall should earn him another look in 2024. Besides, one of the very reasons Arcia was given an everyday look at shortstop was due to the organization’s concerns with Grissom’s defensive abilities at the position.

External options abound, with the free-agent market including the likes of Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Michael Brantley and Tommy Pham, among others (to say nothing of a potential lower-cost reunion with Rosario). Trade options include Alex Verdugo, Max Kepler and Dylan Carlson, to name just a few. Going with Grissom would allow the Braves to get a longer look at a top homegrown talent while also saving some payroll to allocate to the team’s expected pursuit of a starting pitcher. At the same time, bringing in an external option could free the possibility of including Grissom as part of a trade package to add a starter who might be more cost effective than a free agent.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes that the Braves expect to pursue at least one arm this offseason, listing longtime division rival Aaron Nola as potential fit (albeit in somewhat speculative fashion) due to his southern roots and his relationship with current Braves pitching coach Rick Kranitz (Nola’s former bullpen/pitching coach in Philly).

Despite their bevy of long-term contract extensions, the Braves have thus far resisted going beyond a $22MM average annual value for any player on their roster. Anthopoulos has spoken in the past as to how that’s not a limitation that’s written in stone, however; the Braves paid Josh Donaldson $23MM on his one-year deal, for instance, and they’re surely held interest in free agents who’d command a larger AAV than that. Rosenthal reports that for “the right pitcher,” the Braves would be willing to extend beyond a $22MM AAV.

Whether that’s Nola, NL Cy Young frontrunner Blake Snell, NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, AL Cy Young finalist Sonny Gray, a trade candidate or an extension candidate (i.e. Max Fried) remains to be seen. Rosenthal points out that the Braves don’t have a Scott Boras client on the current roster — Snell and Yamamoto are repped by Boras — though I’d add that like the $22MM AAV, that’s not a hard-and-fast rule. The Braves have had Boras clients on the roster in recent seasons, Touki Toussaint and Dallas Keuchel among them.

Anthopoulos and Braves CEO Terry McGuirk have both publicly spoken about the expectation that payroll will increase for a third straight season, though much of that uptick in spending will come from the roster that’s already in place. Many players who were signed to long-term contract extensions will see their salaries increase under the terms of those deals. That’s true of Austin Riley (a $5MM increase), Matt Olson ($1MM) and Sean Murphy ($5MM). Re-signed relievers Joe Jimenez ($8MM) and Pierce Johnson ($7MM) will also see increases over last year’s respective salaries of $2.765MM and $5MM. Meanwhile, Fried and A.J. Minter are in line for raises on last year’s respective salaries of $13.5MM and $4.2875MM.

The Braves finished the 2023 season with a payroll just shy of $205MM and more than $245MM of luxury-tax commitments, per Roster Resource. They’re already at $207MM and $236MM per those same projections, though non-tenders and potential trades will impact the bottom line.

Phillies Notes: Nola, Castellanos, Front Office

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As right-hander Aaron Nola hits free agency for the first time in his career, there have been indications of mutual interest in a reunion with the Phillies, as both Nola and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski have spoken publicly about a desire to continue the relationship into 2024 and beyond. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi cautions, however, that the sides are not “at all close on a reunion.” While Morosi acknowledges the “strong” relationship between Nola and the Phillies, he suggests that due to the number of teams in the market for pitching help this season, there’s a “better than 50/50” chance that Nola is able to find a better offer outside of Philadelphia.

That Nola’s camp wouldn’t look to get together on a deal with the Phillies this early in the offseason is hardly surprising. After all, the sides were unable to agree on an extension prior to the 2023 campaign, and with Nola now a free agent he figures to be one of the most attractive rotation arms on the open market this offseason to teams in need of pitching. He ranked fifth overall in MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list this offseason, behind only NPB superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto and left-hander Blake Snell among this offseason’s starting pitching market. That being said, there’s still reason for optimism regarding a reunion between the sides, as Morosi suggests that Nola could give the Phillies the opportunity to match if he receives a better offer elsewhere.

Of course, Nola is far from the only quality starter on the market, meaning the Phillies will have plenty of alternatives available should he depart for another club this winter. In addition to Yamamoto and Snell, left-handers Jordan Montgomery and Shota Imanaga figure to be among the upper-tier rotation arms available this offseason. Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray is also available this offseason and has already been connected to the Phillies, while Brewers ace Corbin Burnes and Rays righty Tyler Glasnow are among the front-of-the-rotation caliber arms who could potentially be available in trade this offseason.

More from the Phillies…

  • ESPN’s Buster Olney reported earlier today that Philadelphia has “no intention” of trading outfielder Nick Castellanos this offseason. While previous reporting had indicated that the club could be open to moving Castellanos, MLBTR’s Steve Adams discussed the pitfalls in such a strategy yesterday. Given the likelihood that Philadelphia would likely have to attach a prospect or eat significant salary to move the remaining three seasons on Castellanos’s deal, it’s hardly a surprise that the club doesn’t expect to deal the two-time All Star ahead of his age-32 campaign. With Kyle Schwarber set to be the club’s regular DH and Bryce Harper poised to remain at first base long term, Castellanos figures to remain entrenched as the club’s everyday right fielder, with Brandon Marsh in left and Johan Rojas in center barring any additions to the club’s outfield mix.
  • The Phillies recently announced a series of promotions in their front office, headlined by Brian Barber being promoted to the role of assistant GM, amateur scouting and Preston Mattingly being promoted to the role of assistant GM, player development. Barber has overseen the club’s amateur drafts since joining the club following the 2019 season. Mattingly, the son of longtime player and manager Don Mattingly, joined the Phillies as director of player development at the end of the 2021 season after five years as a member of the Padres’ scouting department.

MLBTR Podcast: Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco)

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss this year’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents! Specific areas of discussion were…

Check out our past episodes!

Phillies Among Teams Showing Interest In Sonny Gray

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The Phillies are among the teams with interest in free agent right-hander Sonny Gray, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The Phils have obvious interest in retaining their own top free agent starter, Aaron Nola, and would become a more aggressive suitor for Gray if Nola ultimately lands elsewhere, per the report. As Morosi further points out, there’s a natural Phillies/Gray connection, as Philadelphia pitching coach Caleb Cotham worked with Gray in Cincinnati and was also a college teammate of Gray at Vanderbilt. Beyond that, while Gray’s relatively brief stint with the Yankees didn’t go well, it’s perhaps worth pointing out that his more successful 2017 output in the Bronx overlapped with current Phillies manager Rob Thomson’s final year as bench coach there.

Gray, who turned 34 yesterday, just wrapped up one of the best seasons of his career, tossing 184 frames of 2.79 ERA ball for the AL Central-winning Twins. Gray added a sharp five innings of shutout ball in the AL Wild Card round, pushing the Twins to a series victory over the Blue Jays, though he faltered against the Astros in the ALDS when he allowed four runs in the first inning of his start there (before recovering, to an extent, to last four innings on the day). He’s already been named an AL Cy Young finalist, although it’s widely expected that he’ll be a runner-up to frontrunner Gerrit Cole for the award.

Minnesota extended a qualifying offer to Gray, though given his track record and a top-three finish in AL Cy Young voting, he’s all but a lock to turn that down in favor of testing the open market. Gray previously and candidly acknowledged that “money is not the ultimate factor for me” in free agency and professed his affinity for pitching in the Twin Cities, but it’d nevertheless be a shock to see him accept that one-year offer when a lucrative multi-year deal awaits him in free agency. Chris Bassitt, who inked a three-year, $63MM deal with Toronto after rejecting a qualifying offer at the same age last offseason, represents something of a floor for Gray in free agency.

While some teams balk at signing free agents who’ve rejected qualifying offers — doing so requires forfeitures in the draft and international free agency — the Phillies don’t fall into that camp. Philadelphia owner John Middleton has been willing to accept that burden on a near-annual basis, in fact. The Phils have forfeited draft picks and international money to sign each of Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Bryce Harper and Jake Arrieta. And while they technically didn’t forfeit a pick to sign J.T. Realmuto, they’d have received a comp pick had he left the team to sign elsewhere, but the Phils re-upped with him on a five-year pact.

Given that history, there’s little reason to think the Phillies wouldn’t be willing to take a similar approach with Gray. It’s not clear whether they’d wait for Nola to actually commit to another team before pursuing alternatives, but president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is known for generally acting quickly and rather decisively on the market. If the Phils get the sense that the Nola bidding will extend beyond their comfort zone, it’s at least feasible they could pivot to an alternative plan before he actually signs a contract — be that alternative Gray or one of the many other veteran starters on the market (e.g. Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell).

The Phillies currently have a projected payroll around $214MM, per Roster Resource, which is a ways shy of last year’s $245MM mark. Signing Gray, retaining Nola or adding any of the prominent free-agent alternatives would likely thrust the Phils right back into luxury tax territory, but they were willing to cross that bridge in each of the past two seasons.

Whether it’s Nola, Gray or another outside acquisition, the Phillies are all but guaranteed to bring in some rotation help this winter. As it stands, their rotation group consists of Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sanchez. Top prospects Mick Abel and Griff McGarry aren’t all that far from MLB readiness, but a team with World Series aspirations will surely seek more certainty than that. Fellow top prospect Andrew Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in July, removing him as a near-term option. Nick Nelson, Dylan Covey and recent waiver claim Josh Fleming are all depth candidates, but it’s clear that someone more stable will be brought in.

As with any report of this nature, it bears emphasizing that Gray very likely is not the sole alternative to Nola the Phillies will consider. In all likelihood, Dombrowski, GM Sam Fuld and the rest of the front office will engage with the representatives for all top-tier and mid-tier starters, both to gauge expectations and to have contingencies in place if their preferred plans of attack don’t pan out. But Gray does at least have some personal ties to members of the Phillies’ staff, and the team has shown a repeated willingness to spend at high levels to sign qualified free agents in addition to a willingness to incur luxury tax penalties.

All of that context is important in their rotation pursuits. Philadelphia will likely be tied to Montgomery and others as well before too long, and they’ll surely be prominent players through the bulk, if not the entirety, of Nola’s own foray into the open market.

Seven Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Seven players in this year’s free agent class have been tagged with the qualifying offer, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). Those players are:

Previous reports had already indicated that Teoscar Hernández, Mitch Garver, J.D. Martinez and Rhys Hoskins had not received the QO. The same is true of Jorge Soler and longer-shot candidates like Kenta Maeda and Kevin Kiermaier.

The QO is valued at $20.325MM this offseason. Players have until next Tuesday to decide whether to accept. The seven players who were tagged all seemed virtual locks to both receive and decline it. It’s hard to envision anyone in this group taking a one-year pact.

Indeed, the more surprising aspect of this year’s class were the number of players who were not qualified. Last winter, 14 players were tagged with the QO. Borderline cases Joc Pederson and Martín Pérez wound up accepting. Teams were far more risk-averse this winter, shying away from the potential lofty commitment for all but the market’s top options.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

With QO decisions now made, every free agent is allowed to begin negotiations with other teams. The five-day window of exclusive negotiation with their incumbent club is over. If these players sign elsewhere, their teams would be entitled to compensation.

The Twins, as a revenue sharing recipient, stand to receive the greatest compensation. Assuming Gray beats a $50MM guarantee (a good bet), Minnesota’s compensatory pick would fall after the first round in next year’s draft. The Cubs, as a team that neither receives sharing nor paid the luxury tax, would land a choice that falls between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round for Bellinger’s departure.

San Diego, Toronto and Philadelphia all surpassed the CBT threshold this year. They’d therefore receive the lowest compensation — a draft choice between Rounds 4 and 5. The Angels finished the season right on the border of the $233MM threshold and don’t yet know whether they paid the tax. As a result, they’re still awaiting word on whether they’d land the pick before the third round or after the fourth if Ohtani heads elsewhere.

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