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Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge Wins AL MVP

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AL home run record holder Aaron Judge has been named the league’s Most Valuable Player, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani finished second, followed by Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez.

Judge has been the favorite to claim the award since a few weeks into the year. The herculean slugger popped six home runs in the season’s first month and only picked up the pace from there. He topped double-digits in longballs in each of the next three months before collecting 20 more from August onwards. His homer pace hit a bit of a lull once he reached 60 and pulled within one of Roger Maris with a bit more than two weeks to play, but Judge eventually claimed the record with blasts off Tim Mayza and Jesús Tinoco.

It was an obviously historic season from a power perspective, but the three-time Silver Slugger winner’s achievements went beyond the longball. He flirted with a Triple Crown late in the season and ultimately finished second among AL qualifiers with a .311 batting average. His .425 on-base percentage paced the circuit, and his .686 slugging mark was well better than Alvarez’s second-place .613 figure. He also played a significant amount of innings in center field, adequately moving to the outfield’s most demanding position after a career spent mostly in right field.

Judge helped the Yankees to 99 wins and an American League East crown. He earned his fourth career All-Star selection, and finished in the top five in MVP balloting for the third time. It’s his first time winning the award, and it couldn’t have come at a better time personally. Judge is a first-time free agent, and his ultimate destination will be one of the storylines of the winter.

Ohtani comes in second place the year after winning his first MVP. An incomparable player, Ohtani hit 34 homers and posted a .273/.356/.519 line as a designated hitter. The right-hander also tossed a career-high 166 innings, posting a 2.33 ERA with an AL-leading 33.2% strikeout rate in 28 starts. On his pitching accomplishments alone, he finished fourth in Cy Young balloting. That’s nothing short of remarkable for a player who also finished fifth in slugging and fourth in longballs in the American League. If not for an historic offensive season from Judge, Ohtani would likely have flown to a second straight MVP.

Judge received 28 of 30 first-place votes, with Ohtani collecting the other two. They were 1-2 in some order on every ballot, while Alvarez picked up 22 third-place nods. The Houston star hit .306/.406/.613, trailing only Judge among AL players in on-base and slugging. He finished third in homers and earned his first All-Star selection and MVP finalist appearance.

Guardians third baseman José Ramírez secured six third-place votes and finished fourth overall. Astros second baseman José Altuve came in fifth, edging out Cleveland second baseman Andrés Giménez (the only player besides Alvarez and Ramírez to secure any third-place votes). Julio Rodríguez, Mike Trout, Xander Bogaerts and Cy Young winner Justin Verlander rounded out the top ten.

Full voting breakdown available here.

MLB Looking Into Potential CBA Violations By Multiple Teams Regarding Top Free Agents

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Major League Baseball has opened an investigation into the Yankees and Mets to determine if their owners improperly communicated about the free agency of AL MVP favorite Aaron Judge, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic.

The investigation is rooted in a column by Andy Martino of SNY earlier this month. Martino wrote the Mets were unlikely to pursue Judge in free agency, in part because of a mutual respect between Mets owner Steve Cohen and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner.

As part of that piece, Martino wrote: “Talking to Mets people about this all through the year, the team in Queens sees Judge as a Yankee, uniquely tailored to be an icon in their uniform, stadium and branding efforts. Owners Steve Cohen and Hal Steinbrenner enjoy a mutually respectful relationship, and do not expect to upend that with a high-profile bidding war. The only way people involved can see the Mets changing course and pursuing Judge would be if the Yankees somehow declared themselves totally out of the bidding.”

To be clear, Martino didn’t characterize that as the sole reason the Mets could choose to sit out the Judge bidding, nor did he expressly state Cohen and Steinbrenner had talked about Judge’s free agency. He went on to note the Mets could be wary of signing another deal in excess of $300MM after extending Francisco Lindor last year.

The Mets could certainly make a legitimate baseball argument for not going after Judge, but communication among owners not to pursue a free agent — if it occurred — would be a collusive violation of the collective bargaining agreement. The MLB Players Association expressed concern about the SNY article to the league, Rosenthal notes, spurring the investigation. Rosenthal adds that MLB is expected to request communication records between Cohen and Steinbrenner.

In the 1980’s, arbitrators found a pattern of collusion among owners that depressed the 1985-87 free agent markets. In 1990, owners agreed to pay players $280MM as part of a settlement. Renewed collusion allegations arose in the early 2000’s, and Rosenthal notes the league agreed to a $12MM settlement but no admission of guilt during the 2006 CBA negotiations.

The MLBPA can file a grievance on Judge’s behalf, and Rosenthal writes the union would have to demonstrate both a) improper communication between the Yankees and Mets actually occurred and b) Judge’s market was harmed by that communication.

Meanwhile, Rosenthal suggests the MLBPA could take issue with the Astros in an unrelated matter. That’d relate to comments made by Houston owner Jim Crane last night on the free agent status of Cy Young winner Justin Verlander. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com wrote that “Crane said Verlander is seeking a deal similar to Max Scherzer,” who secured a three-year, $130MM deal with the Mets last winter, as part of an interview with MLB.com on Tuesday. Crane isn’t quoted on the record mentioning Scherzer, telling McTaggart of Verlander: “He’s looking at the comp, which I think there’s only one or two. … J.V.’s probably got a few years left, and he wants to make the most of it. I think he’s going to test the market on that.”

To be clear, there’s no suggestion Crane has been in conversations with other clubs about Verlander’s market. However, the CBA also expressly prohibits team officials from “(making) comments to the media about the value of an unsigned free agent, regardless of whether discussions have occurred,” including comments to the effect of “Player X is seeking more than Player Y received.”

If the Players Association decided to file a grievance against Houston, they’d likewise need to demonstrate Verlander’s market was harmed by Crane’s comments — ostensibly by arguing that Crane’s claims of the nine-time All-Star’s high asking price may deter other teams from jumping into the fray. To this point, there’s no indication the union has filed a grievance in either situation, but each bears monitoring over the coming weeks

12 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 14 players who received qualifying offers have rejected those one-year, $19.65MM contracts in favor of testing the open market, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Martin Perez and Joc Pederson are the only two who accepted a QO. Each of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Anderson have rejected the deal. Anderson is already in agreement on a three-year contract with the Angels.

None of the news is all that surprising, aside from perhaps Anderson’s early multi-year strike with the Halos. Perez and Pederson were two of the three most likely candidates to take the QO. That the Giants tagged Pederson at all was a move few saw coming, and most believed he’d indeed take the QO once it was put forth.

None of Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, deGrom, Rodon, Nimmo, Bassitt or Contreras likely gave much thought to the possibility. Eovaldi and Rizzo were more borderline candidates, but the latter quickly returns to the Yankees on a multi-year deal that’ll pay him around the QO rate over two guaranteed seasons. Eovaldi has yet to sign, but he’ll presumably continue to search for a longer-term contract after taking advantage of the five days to scour the market.

The clubs that saw a free agent decline a qualifying offer now stand to receive draft compensation if that player signs elsewhere. The value of the compensatory pick depends on a team’s status as a revenue sharing recipient and/or whether they paid the luxury tax in 2022. That’s also true of the draft choices and potentially international signing bonus space a team would have to forfeit to sign a qualified free agent from another team.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the forfeiture each team would have to surrender to sign a qualified free agent earlier this month. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked at the compensation each club would receive if one of these players signed elsewhere.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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14 players received qualifying offers this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The list is as follows:

As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer a team can make to impending free agents. Players who have previously received a QO in their careers and/or didn’t spend the entire preceding season with one team cannot receive a qualifying offer. The value of the offer is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB. For the 2022-23 offseason, it is set at $19.65MM.

If a player accepts the QO, he returns to his current team for next season on that salary. If he declines, the team would receive compensation if he were to sign elsewhere. The specific compensation depends on the team’s status as both a luxury tax payor and whether they receive revenue sharing payments. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at the compensation each team would receive for losing a qualified free agent last week.

Signing a player who refuses a QO from another team requires the signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space. As with compensation for losing qualified free agents, the specific nature of the forfeiture is dependent on revenue sharing status and the competitive balance tax.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

The majority of players who receive qualifying offers decline them each offseason. Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, deGrom, Swanson, Rodón, Nimmo, Contreras and Bassitt were always virtual locks to receive a QO. They’ll assuredly turn them down and sign multi-year contracts, either with their incumbent teams or other clubs. Rejecting a qualifying offer, to be clear, does not affect a player’s ability to continue negotiating with his previous team.

Rizzo, Anderson and Pérez were all more borderline QO candidates, although reports in recent days had suggested each was likely to receive the offer. There’s a case for all three players in that group to accept, although their representatives will have five days to gauge the market before making that decision. Pérez has reportedly received a two-year offer from Texas. The sides have long expressed mutual interest in agreement, but they’ve yet to come to terms on a longer deal.

The final two qualified free agents come as more surprising developments. Eovaldi always looked like a borderline QO candidate. He recently wrapped up a four-year, $68MM contract with the Red Sox. The right-hander was generally effective over the life of that deal, but his 2022 campaign was more of a mixed bag. Shoulder and back injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings. His 3.87 ERA over that stretch was right in line with his 2020-21 marks, but his strikeout rate dropped a few points to a league average 22.4%. Eovaldi’s fastball also dipped slightly from siting just under 97 MPH down to 95.7 MPH, but that’s still plenty impressive velocity. Paired with his elite strike-throwing ability and the Red Sox’s need for rotation help, they’d be content to bring the 32-year-old back for just under $20MM if he accepted the QO.

The most surprising qualifying offer recipient, however, is Pederson. San Francisco signed the outfielder to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter after an up-and-down 2021 campaign with the Cubs and Braves. The left-handed slugger responded with an excellent .274/.353/.521 showing, connecting on 23 home runs in 433 plate appearances. Pederson also posted elite batted ball marks, including a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity that’s around five MPH above league average. He also made hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) on a career-best 52.1% of his balls in play.

That figured to give 30-year-old a strong shot at a multi-year offer, although it’s still surprising to see the Giants offer him nearly $20MM to return. Pederson played left field in Oracle Park, but he rated as 12 runs below average over 685 innings in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. He’s consistently posted subpar defensive marks and is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter. The Giants also shielded him against southpaws, limping him to 57 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

Some notable players who were eligible for a qualifying offer but did not receive one include Jameson Taillon, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha. That group will all hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation, which should be a boost to their free agent stocks.

Of the crop of QO recipients, Pederson looks likeliest to accept, although it’s possible that anyone in the group turns the offer down if their reps find interest over multi-year pacts. Players have until the evening of November 15 to determine whether to accept or turn down the QO.

Zaidi: Giants In Contact With Free Agent Shortstops, Plan To Issue QO To Carlos Rodon

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The Giants are widely expected to be one of the league’s most active teams this offseason, with the front office reloading after an underwhelming 2022 season. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi met with reporters (including John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle) this evening and confirmed the team could play near the top of the market.

Asked about the club’s free agent priorities, Zaidi told the media “from a financial standpoint, there would be nobody that would be out of our capability.” He went on to note they’ve already had discussions with representatives for free agent shortstops who’ve expressed a willingness to move to second base in deference to Brandon Crawford (via Jon Morosi of MLB.com). Teams technically aren’t allowed to negotiate contract terms with free agents from other teams until tomorrow evening, but they can discuss more general concepts like roster fit during the exclusive negotiation period.

Zaidi didn’t specify the players involved, although it’s not hard to infer he’s speaking about the top shortstops on the market. Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson are going to be priority targets for a number of the game’s biggest-spending teams. It’s notable that Zaidi spoke of potentially moving an external pickup to the other side of the bag while keeping Crawford at shortstop, although it’s not clear if that’s an absolute requirement for any player under consideration. Scott Boras, who represents both Correa and Bogaerts, told reporters he hasn’t heard from teams looking to push either player off the position (link via Bob Nightengale of USA Today).

While adding a top shortstop is plausible for a San Francisco club looking to get younger and more athletic this winter, Zaidi and his group are sure to cast a wide net. The mention of the financial wherewithal to pursue any player available will lead to further speculation about the market’s top free agent. The Giants are sure to be linked to Aaron Judge throughout the winter, as they’re indeed among the clubs most well-positioned for that kind of expenditure. San Francisco has roughly $72.5MM in guaranteed commitments on the books, pending a call on Evan Longoria’s option. Even with a fairly heavy arbitration class, the Giants have plenty of room before approaching this year’s $155MM Opening Day mark, and they’re nowhere near the franchise-record heights that pushed $200MM.

Of course, San Francisco is facing a few potential key departures. Ace Carlos Rodón opted out of the second year of his deal and is back on the open market. Zaidi confirmed the club’s obvious decision to tag him with a $19.65MM qualifying offer (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area), which Rodón is a lock to reject in pursuit of a deal north of nine figures. That’d entitle the Giants to a compensatory draft choice between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round (roughly 75th overall) in next year’s draft if the star southpaw departs.

San Francisco also sees corner outfielder Joc Pederson hit the open market, and while he certainly won’t receive a QO, Zaidi reiterated the team would like to keep him around (Shea link). The lefty-hitting outfielder posted a .274/.353/.521 line after signing a $6MM guarantee last offseason, and the club has discussed a potential extension as far back as September. Pederson is sure to beat $6MM this time around and looks to have a good shot at a multi-year contract after his quality platform year.

Yankees Notes: Judge Free Agency, LeMahieu, Kiner-Falefa

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Brian Cashman addressed reporters, including The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner, for the first time following the Yankees’ ALCS defeat to the Houston Astros. Cashman’s future was among the topics discussed, but the GM also took time to provide some insight on various areas of the playing roster.

Aaron Judge’s future with the organization will be the biggest question heading into the off-season, and Cashman says the team would ideally get a deal done soon if they’re to re-sign him. Judge is a strong favorite for AL MVP after hitting 62 home runs and posting a .311/.425/.686 slash line. A worst case scenario for the Yankees would be for them to miss out on Judge after his free agency drags long into the off-season and likely replacements have since signed elsewhere, so it makes sense that Cashman would prefer business to be completed swiftly.

“He’s gonna dictate the dance steps to his free agency because he’s earned the right to get there,” Cashman said. “We’ll see how it plays out. He’s the most important. If he came in here today and said, ‘I’m signing up. Let’s go,’ there’s still work to be done.”

Cashman wouldn’t offer much insight into the process, offering a “no comment” when asked if the Yankees and Judge had engaged in discussion since the end of the season. He also noted it’s more of a decision for Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner as well. Cashman’s clearly stated he wants Judge back, but the ultimate decision will land at Steinbrenner’s feet as to how big of a contract he’s willing to hand out.

DJ LeMahieu struggled with a foot injury late in the regular season and wound up missing the entire post-season. The Yankees haven’t settled on a path forward for managing that injury in the off-season, but surgery remains on the table. LeMahieu posted a .261./.357/.377 line with 12 home runs this season, well short of the MVP-level offensive output he produced for the Yankees during 2019-20. The Yankees will hope a full recovery from the injury will allow LeMahieu to post better offensive numbers, but he’ll also turn 35 in 2023 and it’s perhaps unreasonable to expect much bounceback for the veteran. With four years and $60MM remaining on his contract, he’ll certainly be back in pinstripes though, but just where he fits in is up in the air and may depend on how the off-season plays out.

LeMahieu’s played plenty of first base with the Yankees, but that’s become less of a need since Anthony Rizzo joined the team last season. It’s already been reported that Rizzo is expected to decline his $16MM player option for 2023. It’s not much of a surprise given Rizzo had a strong season and is expected to benefit from shift restrictions next year. Cashman stated the Yankees will seek to re-sign Rizzo if he opts out. That could come in the form of a qualifying offer, but it seems likely Rizzo would decline that in favor of a multi-year deal.

The left side of the infield drew plenty of criticism throughout the season, and particularly during the playoffs, but Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are both controlled for 2023. Donaldson is owed $21.75MM while Kiner-Falefa is into his final year of arbitration and is predicted to make $6.5MM per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Donaldson ranked eighth among qualified third basemen in Outs Above Average, but scuffled with the bat, hitting just .222/.308/.374 with 15 home runs. Kiner-Falefa was never expected to be a major offensive contributor, but defensive metrics were mixed on his glove work at shortstop, ranging from 28th in Outs Above Average to seventh in Defensive Runs Saved. While a change at third might be tricky given Donaldson’s significant salary, Cashman’s left the door open for change at shortstop, particularly given the impressive showing rookies Oswaldo Cabrera and Oswald Peraza made down the stretch. The Yankees also have top prospect Anthony Volpe getting close to the majors.

“I think Kiner was along the lines of what we expected,” Cashman said. “It gave us an opportunity to bridge the gap while the kids continued to develop because everybody in the industry, fans and teams alike, recognize that we have some pretty impactful prospects that we’re developing and needed some more time.”

In other bits of info from Cashman’s press conference, he said he wouldn’t discuss trading players but noted that outfielder Aaron Hicks would be back and that the team felt he still had something to offer. Hicks hit .216/.330/.313 in his age-32 campaign, and has $30.4MM and at least three years remaining on his contract. It’s worth adding here that manager Aaron Boone said today he wants to utilize Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield a couple of times a week next season. Stanton has largely played as a designated hitter of late, but factoring him into the outfield depth chart more regularly would affect Hicks’ playing time.

The Yankees are also hoping to bring back pitching coach Matt Blake. Hired out of Cleveland after the Yankees parted ways with Larry Rothschild in 2019, Blake is out of contract. The Yankees ranked third in the majors in team ERA with a 3.30 mark this year, behind only the Dodgers and Astros.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Dodgers Expected To Pursue Aaron Judge; Mookie Betts Reportedly Open To Move To Second Base

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The Dodgers are annually mentioned as possible suitors for the best players available on the open market, and they’re likely to be in the mix for the upcoming offseason’s No. 1 free agent. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that L.A. could make a run at Aaron Judge, which he suggests could be tied to a willingness to move star right fielder Mookie Betts to second base more regularly to accommodate Judge.

Judge is coming off a historic, likely MVP campaign in 2022 where he set the AL record for home runs and slashed a comical .311/.425/.686 (207 wRC+) after rejecting a seven year, $213.5MM extension offer from the Yankees this spring. The Yankees figure to prioritize retaining Judge this offseason, but if there’s any team that can play in the same financial stratosphere as New York, it’s the Dodgers, who posted a luxury tax payroll just under $290MM in 2022 and will see significant salary come off the books this season thanks to possible impending free agencies of players such as David Price, Trea Turner, Justin Turner (whose contract has a $16MM club option for next season) and Craig Kimbrel.

Per RosterResource, the Dodgers have an estimated luxury tax payroll of around $176MM headed into 2023, though this doesn’t include contracts for their arbitration-eligible players. Still, that should leave them with plenty of space before they even get to the level they hit this year. Looking ahead to 2024 and beyond, the Dodgers have just under $74MM locked up for 2024, a hair above $70MM for 2025, and just over $61MM committed for 2026. This payroll flexibility in the future should give them plenty of room to offer free agents multi-year contracts this offseason.

Judge played quite a bit of center field in 2022, where the Dodgers currently have potential non-tender candidate Cody Bellinger and utilityman Chris Taylor as their primary options. However, Judge is widely not seen as a long-term center fielder and considered a better fit in right field, where he’s spent the majority of his career and rates out as among the best defenders at the position in the sport. The Dodgers, of course, have their own elite right field glove in Betts, a five time Gold Glove award winner at the position.

Betts, however, came up as a second baseman and initially only moved to the outfield to accommodate then-Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia. Betts has continued to play second base sporadically throughout his career following the position change, even logging 46 innings (five starts) at the position in 2022. Both Betts and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts have spoken positively of the possibility of Betts playing more second base in the future, and accommodating a player of Judge’s caliber could be just the reason the Dodgers need to make the switch full time. Feinsand reports that Betts is open to moving to the infield regularly at some point in his career, although it’s not clear whether that’d be conditional on the team signing Judge.

Any pursuit of Judge would surely complicate whatever attempts the Dodgers may make this offseason to retain Trea Turner, another top free agent on the market this offseason. Signing Judge and retaining Turner may be more of a financial commitment than even the Dodgers can stomach, with both likely to seek average annual values well over $30MM on contracts of eight-plus years this offseason. Furthermore, with at least some possibility of Betts moving to the infield more regularly, the Dodgers may be content to simply plug Gavin Lux in at shortstop and use leftover money from a potential Judge signing to focus on other areas, such as fortifying a rotation that will have to retain or replace impending free agents Clayton Kershaw, Andrew Heaney, and Tyler Anderson.

Yankees Notes: Judge, deGrom, Montas, LeMahieu, Marinaccio, Benintendi

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The ALDS is tied 1-1, as today’s Game 2 saw the Yankees suffer a tough 4-2 loss to the Guardians in 10 innings.  Giancarlo Stanton’s two-run homer gave New York a 2-0 lead after the first inning, but the Yankees managed only four more hits and zero additional runs in the next nine innings against Guards pitching.  The series now shifts to Cleveland for the next two games, with Luis Severino slated to face Triston McKenzie in tomorrow’s Game 3.

More from the Bronx…

  • According to four agents and a non-Yankees executive polled by the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, Aaron Judge’s next contract is going to be worth at least $300MM, with some speculation that he might approach the $350MM or even $400MM thresholds.  It would be a gigantic and possibly record-setting deal for the slugger, yet Judge’s huge 62-homer campaign has made a strong argument for such a contract.  With other teams surely interested and possibly driving the price up, it remains to be seen if the Yankees will retain Judge, though GM Brian Cashman said this week that “we’d love to keep him if we can.”
  • It also seems like you can rule out any chance of a crosstown swap of free agents, as Heyman doesn’t believe the Mets will make a true run at Judge, nor is it likely that Judge would leave the Yankees for New York’s other team.  A league source also flatly told Heyman that “the Yankees aren’t going after [Jacob] deGrom,” as there has been speculation that deGrom might be looking to leave New York for a team closer to his home in Florida.
  • The Yankees are missing several notable players on their ALDS roster, but manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch and The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner) that four injured players could perhaps be available if the Yankees advanced to the ALCS.  In preparation, Andrew Benintendi, Frankie Montas, and Ron Marinaccio are all heading to Tampa to work out in a live game setting.  As Montas recovers from shoulder inflammation, Boone said that Montas would be used as a bulk pitcher (behind an opener) or as a multi-inning reliever, rather than in his usual starting role.  DJ LeMahieu is still traveling with the team as he recuperates from his foot injury, with the Yankees specifying that LeMahieu is suffering from a ligament issue with the second toe of his right foot.

Giants Interested In Free Agent Shortstops This Offseason

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The Giants could be one of the most aggressive teams this offseason, given their limited payroll commitments and many areas of need. The club’s president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi recently spoke about how “everything is on the table” this winter, “including going out and being aggressive at the top end of the free agent market.” Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that they would “love” to go after one of the top shortstop free agents if they don’t sign Aaron Judge.

Judge will undoubtedly be the top free agent on the market, based on his career track record and incredible platform season. He’s already hit 55 home runs on the year and has produced an overall batting line of .307/.410/.679. That amounts to an unbelievable 202 wRC+, indicating Judge has somehow been 102% better than the league average hitter. When combined with solid outfield defense and 16 stolen bases, he’s already racked up 9.3 wins above replacement on the season in the estimation of FanGraphs and 8.7 at Baseball Reference.

Given that Judge grew up in the Bay Area, he’s often been speculatively connected to the Giants, though it would take a sizeable commitment on the team’s part for that to come to fruition. Back in April, Judge and the Yankees failed to reach an agreement on an extension, with the slugger reportedly turning down a seven-year, $213.5MM deal. Judge was apparently looking for $36MM over nine or ten years, a range of $324-360MM. Now that Judge is having his best season yet and will soon be able to court offers from the 29 other teams, it’s entirely possible that he will now try to do even better than that.

The Giants haven’t operated at anywhere near that level since Zaidi took over in November of 2018, having not yet given out a contract longer than three years in his tenure. However, that means that the team’s ledger is fairly clear, giving the club the opportunity to change course. There’s only about $89MM committed for next year’s team, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That doesn’t include raises for arbitration-eligible players like Mike Yastrzemski or Logan Webb, but it does include $22.5MM for Carlos Rodon, who is almost certainly going to opt out and return to free agency. They have just over $20MM committed to 2024 and nothing for 2025 and beyond. Given that they had an Opening Day payroll of $155MM this year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and have been as high as $200MM in 2018, there’s room for a big splash if they want to make it.

If the club can’t successfully bring Judge back to the neighborhood, it seems that pursuing a shortstop will be another option they will consider. Of course, the club already has a shortstop in Brandon Crawford, who has been a mainstay there for over a decade, having made his debut in 2011. Last year was a revelation for Crawford, as he suddenly produced the best campaign of his career after a few rough seasons. He hit .298/.373/.522 in 2021, producing a 138 wRC+ that was 25 points better than his previous career high. When combined with his excellent defensive work, he produced 6.3 wins above replacement, in the estimation of FanGraphs, easily eclipsing his previous high of 4.4.

In the midst of that excellent showing, the Giants and Crawford agreed to a two-year, $32MM extension, though the first season has been a disappointment. Crawford has been battling a knee injury for most of the year, going on the IL twice because of it. When healthy enough to take the field, he hasn’t been able to produce at anywhere near his 2021 output. He’s hitting .226/.305/.346 on the season for a wRC+ of 85, with his defensive numbers also not as impressive as last year.

Crawford still has one year remaining on that extension but will be turning 36 in January. Given his age, knee issues and diminished performance, it seems the Giants are willing to consider a bold move to strengthen their infield. Since the field of available shortstops is going to be strong again this year, it might be prudent to strike early, even if it means Crawford and another shortstop sharing the roster for one season. Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson are both on the cusp of free agency, with Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts both expected to opt out of their respective contracts and join them.

The Giants have also been significantly held back by their defense this year, with a collective -30 Outs Above Average and -33 Defensive Runs Saved, both of those numbers placing them 28th in the majors. Ultimate Zone Rating gives them a -28.6, which is 29th. Second base has been a particularly rough area, with the team’s collective numbers at the keystone coming in at -5 OAA (25th), -15 DRS (29th) and -2.1 UZR (21st). Having a shortstop-quality defender take over at second base, either Crawford or an outside addition, might be a good way for the club to take a step forward next year, especially with the ban on extreme defensive shifts going into place next season.

Thairo Estrada and Wilmer Flores have taken the bulk of playing time at second base this season, though each is capable of playing other positions and arguably better utilized away from second. Estrada has a -10 DRS at second and Flores a -6 this year, with each of them putting up better numbers at the other positions they’ve played. Estrada has yet to reach arbitration and Flores is eschewing free agency after agreeing to a two-year extension, reported earlier today.

Each of the Turner/Swanson/Correa/Bogaerts group will likely command a lesser contract than Judge, though that doesn’t mean they will be cheap. All four of them are currently younger than 30 years old, with Xander crossing that threshold on October 1. That means each of them will likely be looking for lengthy contracts. This past offseason, Corey Seager got ten years, Marcus Semien got seven, with Trevor Story and Javier Baez each getting six. Correa ended up settling for a three-year deal, though with a high average annual value of $35.1MM and opt-outs after each season. Similar to any Judge contract, the Giants would likely have to break their pattern of sticking to short-term deals in order to make an impact in the shortstop market. Should they miss out on all of the upper tier options, there’s a significant drop to the next level, which will be occupied by players like Jose Iglesias and Elvis Andrus.

All told, it should be a fascinating winter for the Giants and their fans. The club has been keeping its books mostly clear for years and has stayed busy on the waiver wire, grabbing just about any role player they could find. That’s left the roster in a position where they have solid depth all around the roster but a lack of truly outstanding players. 10 different position players have produced at least 0.5 fWAR for the Giants on the season but none higher than 2.3 so far. Perhaps the conditions are right for them to raise the ceiling in the months to come.

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