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A.J. Preller

NL Notes: Padres, Preller’s Winter, Cubs, Extension Talks, Shelby Miller

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There was a point in the offseason when Padres’ GM A.J. Preller almost acquired Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove on the same day, he said on Jon Heyman and Tony Gwynn Jr.’s Big Time Baseball podcast. Ultimately, it took a span of roughly three weeks to get all three arms dressed in brown, white, and gold. The deals took some finagling, as at one point, at least one of the players who ultimately went to Tampa Bay was slated for both the Snell and Darvish deals. Once the Snell deal went through, Preller and the Cubs had to renegotiate and swap in new names. Preller did not say which of the Rays’ new prospects was also coveted by the Cubs. But he did touch on their pursuit of one-time free agent and current Los Angeles Dodger Trevor Bauer. Preller and the Padres felt Bauer was going to take his time making a decision, and they didn’t want to be left holding the bag, so to speak, if he chose to go elsewhere. The Padres executed their trade plans instead, completing the most dramatic winters in recent memory. Despite the myriad additions, the Padres will have room for an in-season addition, should they feel the need, noted Preller. More on the Cubs…

  • After months – years, even – of trade speculation around their star core, the Cubs see varying levels of uncertainty around the respective futures of Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, or Kris Bryant, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago. Bryant seems destined for free agency. Rizzo is confident that he’ll remain a Cub beyond 2021, and the Cubs’ affection for Rizzo has never wavered. He’s the likeliest of the trio to receive an extension. Baez wants an extension, but given the potential options in free agency next winter, the Cubs would be wise to wait unless the Wasserman client succumbs to team friendly terms. Our speculation need not end on April 1st, however. Unlike some other players seeking extensions – namely and most apropos, Francisco Lindor – Baez has no problem continuing extension talks into the season, notes Wittenmyer. It’s worth noting that Wasserman also represents Kyle Hendricks, with whom the Cubs worked out an extension late in March, 2019.
  • Newfound command of his slider has helped Shelby Miller make a compelling case to make the Cubs’ roster, per Meghan Montemurro and Lamond Pope of the Chicago Tribune. Said Miller, “Opposing hitters have to respect a whole other pitch that they haven’t seen. I’ve just got to keep throwing it, and hopefully it gets better. And I’m just going to go out there and get outs. That’s all I can say really.” Miller is a long shot to make the rotation out of camp with Hendricks, Zach Davies, Jake Arrieta, Trevor Williams, Alec Mills, and Adbert Alzolay ahead of Miller in the pecking order. He’s in the mix for a bullpen spot, however. A lot may depend on whether Alzolay is granted another option season. If not, he’ll be on the roster in one form or another. Miller is a non-roster invitee who would need to be added to the 40-man roster to make the team. The Cubs have one open 40-man roster spot.

Padres Extend A.J. Preller

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The Padres have extended general manager A.J. Preller through the 2026 season and given him the title of president of baseball operations, the team announced.  President of business operations Erik Greupner has also been given a promotion to Chief Executive Officer and a similar contract extension through 2026.

“Erik and A.J. have earned their promotions by assembling strong business and baseball operations groups within our organization while working together towards our singular goal of winning a World Series championship,” Padres owner Peter Seidler said as part of a statement released by the team.  “Erik is a steady hand and multi-talented leader, and he has been the driving force behind our innovative business growth in a continuously evolving sports landscape.  A.J. has skillfully built both a playoff-caliber Major League club and a top tier minor league system.  I look forward to working with Erik and A.J. towards an exciting future for our deserving and extraordinarily supportive fans.”

This is the second contract extension signed by Preller since he was originally hired by the team in August 2014, and his previous deal was set to expire after the 2022 season.  Clearly the Padres wanted to act quickly in committing to an executive who, despite a lot of ups and downs, now seems to have positioned San Diego to contend for the better part of the coming decade.

Preller’s first offseason in charge of the Padres saw the team load up on established veterans, an aggressive strategy that backfired with another losing season in 2015 and, eventually, led to another rebuild.  Preller spent the next few seasons overseeing the development of arguably baseball’s minor league system, setting the groundwork for a multi-year effort to again obtain star players in various trades, while also hanging onto many of the most highly-regarded members of this farm system.  Combine this with Padres ownership’s willingness to break the bank on expensive free agent signings like Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer, and the Padres have suddenly amassed a very deep and talented roster intent on overthrowing the Dodgers atop the NL West and finally bringing San Diego its first World Series title.

It has been quite a turn-around for Preller considering that he was reportedly close to being fired back in 2016 after a 30-day suspension issued by Major League Baseball.  Preller was punished for failing to disclose medical information about Drew Pomeranz when the Padres dealt him to the Red Sox for prospect Anderson Espinoza, and multiple other teams also spoke to the league about similar alleged actions in other Padres trades.

2020 was the Padres’ first winning season of Preller’s tenure, as the team went 37-23 in the regular season and defeated the Cardinals in the Wild Card Series before falling to the Dodgers in the NLDS.  With a playoff berth finally under his belt, Preller was again aggressive this winter, adding Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove in newsworthy trades, re-signing Jurickson Profar to a three-year deal, and signing Korean star Ha-Seong Kim to a free agent contract.

The addition of the president of baseball operations title doesn’t materially change Preller’s duties, as he was already the team’s top front office decision-maker.  Teams use various designations (whether president of baseball ops, chief baseball officer, senior VP, general manager, etc.) for the person in charge of their baseball operations department, though the new title just cements Preller’s position and perhaps keeps other teams from trying to lure him away in the future with offers of a promtion.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

A.J. Preller Discusses Padres’ Offseason, Tatis, Lamet

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Padres general manager A.J. Preller spoke with reporters (including MLB.com’s Maria Guardado and The Athletic’s Dennis Lin) Monday about a variety of topics related to the team’s offseason business, including a continued search for pitching.  However, an in-house star was also discussed, as Preller said that working out a multi-year extension for Fernando Tatis Jr. is “a priority” for the organization.

“I think his situation is a priority and I think we’re in a position to try to line up on a deal,” Preller said.  “I think we’ll see what happens here over the course of the rest of the offseason, to see if we can do that.”

Tatis has quickly become one of baseball’s biggest young talents over his two MLB seasons, hitting .301/.374/.582 with 39 homers over 629 career plate appearances.  He doesn’t even turn 22 years old until January, putting him on pace to receive a potential record-setting free agent contract if he reaches the open market following his age-25 season.  Tatis’ price tag will already begin to rise significantly next offseason, as he will reach the first of three years of arbitration eligibility.

The Padres therefore have lots of incentive to ink Tatis to a long-term deal, and some common ground could be reached given that Tatis has also reportedly expressed interest in an extension.  Locking in a life-changing fortune so early in his career would naturally have appeal to Tatis, and because he is so young, he has plenty of time to land at least one more major deal later in his career.  Signing even a seven-year extension now would allow Tatis to still reach free agency before his age-29 season.

With both the COVID-19 pandemic and potential labor strife next winter hanging over the sport, Tatis could also prefer to get some guaranteed financial security sooner rather than later.  On the flip side, Lin wonders if Tatis and his representatives would perhaps prefer to wait another year before seriously diving into extension talks, since by then there will be more clarity about both the state of public health and how baseball’s financial structure will be altered by a new collective bargaining agreement.

Since most extension negotiations usually don’t take place until later in the offseason, Preller’s more immediate attention will be focused on adding new pieces to the roster.  The GM said the club is continuing to explore pitching options, and has “looked at it both ways,” in terms of adding either front-of-the-rotation ace type or perhaps more of a mid-rotation type.

“I think it’s just kind of going to depend on the individual pitcher that’s involved, and then obviously, what potentially we’d have to do from a money standpoint or from a trade standpoint,” Preller said.  “Weighing that in versus what we see the impactability of our own talent and when that will happen.”

Dinelson Lamet’s status will also surely factor into San Diego’s plans, as the right-hander missed the end of the season (and the playoffs) due to biceps tightness, and was undergoing platelet-rich plasma therapy on his throwing elbow.  While Preller noted that the Padres won’t fully know how ready Lamet is until Spring Training, “in terms of the tests that he’s passing right now — all his workouts, picking up a baseball, beginning his throwing program to start the offseason — he’s reporting that he’s in a very similar spot to where he was last year, which is a good place,” Preller said.

Padres, Fernando Tatis Jr. Interested In Discussing Extension

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San Diego Padres GM A.J. Preller unsurprisingly expressed interest in signing superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. to a long-term extension. Tatis has interest as well, though the two sides haven’t yet begun negotiations, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. Preller did suggest that negotiations could kick off before too long, however.

There aren’t a ton of pertinent precedents for a potential Tatis extension, but there is one. Braves superstar centerfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. signed a 8-year, $100MM contract extension with the Braves after one season in the majors. Acuña was coming off a Rookie of the Year season in which he slashed .293/.366/.552 for 4.2 rWAR in his age-20 season.

Acuña’s deal is largely viewed as a bargain, and Tatis could arguably that he’s off to an even more impressive start to his MLB career. Tatis produced 4.1 rWAR over just 84 games as a 20-year-old in 2019. This year he provided an appropriate step up as he posted 2.5 rWAR, roughly the equivalent of 6.75 WAR over a full 162-game season. Through 143 career games, Tatis owns a triple slash of .301/.374/.582.

The two situations are analogous, however, as both Tatis and Acuña have led their teams back into the postseason at a young age. They’re also two of MLB’s brightest and most popular stars. Tatis now has more major league service time than Acuña did at the time of his deal, however, raising the price of any potential contract agreement. Tatis Jr. won’t be arbitration eligible until 2022, with free agency set for following the 2024 season. Both players debuted in their age-20 season, and both players field premium up-the-middle positions. Both Tatis and Acuña have also galvanized their fan bases during their short time in the majors.

There haven’t been many extensions signed this season league-wide, which is partially due to the revenue lost because of coronavirus and the uncertainty of future revenue streams. But there also hasn’t been a ton of time for these sorts of negotiations, notes Preller. As the playoffs wind to a close, teams may again have a moment to explore their internal options. The Padres would certainly love to extend Tatis Jr., but again, it would be rare for a player of his caliber to sign this early. Tatis Jr. is represented by MVP Sports Group, who also reps teammate Manny Machado.

GM Trade History: Padres’ A.J. Preller

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It’s not always fair to judge baseball operations leaders for free agent signings.  In many cases, the biggest contracts are negotiated to varying extents by ownership.  The same can hold true of major extensions.  It’s just tough to know from the outside.

There’s obviously involvement from above in trade scenarios as well.  But, when it comes to exchanging rights to some players for others, it stands to reason the role of the general manager is all the more clear.

In any event, for what it’s worth, it seemed an opportune moment to take a look back at the trade track records of some of the general managers around the game. We’ve already covered the Diamondbacks’ Mike Hazen, former Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, the Brewers’ David Stearns, the Angels’ Billy Eppler, the Rockies’ Jeff Bridich, the White Sox’ Rick Hahn, the Tigers’ Al Avila and the Braves’ Alex Anthopoulos. We’ll now turn our focus to the Padres’ A.J. Preller, whom the club hired late in the 2014 season. As you’ll see below, nobody can accuse Preller of sitting on his hands. Unfortunately for him and the Padres, the abundant trades Preller has swung haven’t yet led to any real progress in the standings for the long-suffering franchise (deals are in chronological order and exclude minor moves; full details at transaction link).

2014-15 Offseason

2015 Season

2015-16 Offseason

2016 Season

2016-17 Offseason

2017 Season

2017-18 Offseason

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-20 Offseason

__

That’s a lot of action on the trade market, but has it been effective? (Poll link for app users)

Tatis: “Nothing Happening Out There Yet” On Contract Extension

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An extension with star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. was reportedly one of the Padres’ offseason goals, though it doesn’t appear as if much progress has been made on that front.  In a radio interview on the Ben & Woods morning show (Twitter link), Tatis said he and his representatives at the MVP Sports Group would “talk about it if the Padres come with something, but there’s nothing happening out there yet.”

While Padres general manager A.J. Preller was “definitely not looking to comment publicly” on the status of negotiations during his own Ben & Woods interview (Twitter link), Preller indicated that the club did want to “explore every option and possibility” in terms of a potential long-term agreement with Tatis.  “We’ll sit down with him and his representatives when the time is right here, and kind of get a feel for where they’re at and see if there’s something there,” Preller said.

The fact that talks have seemingly yet to truly begin isn’t necessarily a sign that an extension couldn’t still happen before Opening Day or shortly into the season, as many teams don’t turn their attention to extension talks whatsoever until Spring Training.  Of course, there also isn’t any immediate urgency to get a deal done since Tatis is under team control through the 2024 season — the shortstop has two remaining years as a pre-arbitration player, and then three seasons of arbitration eligibility.

Gaining some additional control (not to mention cost certainty) over Tatis would certainly be of interest to the Padres, as Tatis has one of the brightest futures of any player in the sport.  The 21-year-old is coming off a rookie season that saw him hit .317/.379/.590 with 22 home runs over 372 plate appearances.  This was despite a pair of injured list stints due to a hamstring strain, and then a back strain that ended Tatis’ season in mid-August.

Should Tatis continue to perform at this high level over the next five years, he would be on track for free agency heading into his age-26 season and be in line for a monster payday on the open market, more than likely over the $400MM threshold.  San Diego knows a thing or two about spending big on a 26-year-old free agent, having just dropped $300MM on Manny Machado (another MVP Sports Group client, of note) last winter.  Locking up even one or two of Tatis’ free agent years as part of a long-term deal could end up being quite a bargain for the Padres, and by that same token, Tatis could be open to an extension that gives him financial security now, yet also doesn’t prevent him from free agency before his 30th birthday.

Some larger factors could also be at play, as The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (subscription required) raised the possibility that Tatis and other younger players might hold off on extensions “with the idea that the next collective bargaining agreement will change the structures of club control and free agency.”  The current CBA expires in December 2021, so assuming a new labor agreement is in place prior to the start of the 2022 season, Tatis would still have three years remaining as a Padre and potentially a new range of contractual options to consider from a negotiating perspective.  Perhaps as a nod to how a new CBA would impact the status quo, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reported yesterday that multiple teams were looking to lock up pre-arbitration players to extensions in the next few weeks.

Quick Hits: Sign-Stealing Investigation Update, Padres, Myers, Hedges, Kluber, Braves, Culberson

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There seems little doubt now that the Astros participated in sign-stealing aided by a live feed from a centerfield camera. The Astros’ maintain their belief that actions at the time were “in line with industry standards,” per Andy Martino of SNY.tv. The newest sticking point is an insistence out of Houston that the camera in question was already in place and not purchased/installed specifically for the purpose of stealing signs. It may seem a bizarre place to draw a line in the sand – and on its own hardly exculpatory – but the installation of equipment does affect the breadth of involvement necessary to put their sign-stealing process in place. At least one witness claimed that many teams use a similar camera for the decoding of signs. Said the witness, “All we asked for was a live feed.” Astros’ hitting coach Alex Cintron played the part of antagonist as the conflict escalated between the Astros and Yankees during the ALCS, though as of right now, it’s unclear who might expect discipline beyond GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch. Regardless, it does seem that the investigation is progressing and disciple of some sort seems likely. Now, let’s get back to winter action and check in on a couple of clubs…

  • Count the San Diego Padres among those teams more focused on shedding contracts than adding them. GM A.J. Preller’s top priority right now is finding a taker for Wil Myers, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark. Myers is due $22.5MM per season for the next three with a $20MM team option for 2023 that comes with a $1MM buyout. That’s a steep payout for a 29-year-old corner outfielder/first baseman who put up just 96 wRC+ last season. The Padres are also looking to move catcher Austin Hedges, who is set to make roughly $2.9MM this year and has two more arbitration seasons remaining. For the second straight offseason, they continue to talk with the Indians about Corey Kluber, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, though a deal on that front before Spring Training is unlikely. They remain curious about Dallas Keuchel and Madison Bumgarner as well, but a deal for any top pitcher seems unlikely unless they find a taker for Myers – which in and of itself presents Preller with a sizable challenge.
  • Charlie Culberson had a couple of major league offers, but none significant enough to outweigh the appeal of returning to Atlanta, per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. The fanbase in Atlanta is quite fond of Culberson, a dirtdog and Atlanta native who plays all over the diamond for manager Brian Snitker. The minor league deal enables the Braves to utilize Culberson’s 40-man roster spot, while incentives in the deal give Culberson similar earning potential to what he’d seen in other offers. Outside of occasional pop, Culberson doesn’t offer a ton with the bat, but he’s a decent baserunner and plays everywhere on the diamond except catcher and centerfield. If nothing else, seeing Culberson return in a Braves uniform would be a heartwarming moment for fans after a brutal injury ended Culberson’s 2019. On a failed bunt attempt at Nats Park, Culberson took a Fernando Rodney fastball to the face that led to a fractured cheekbone. 

Padres Not Playing At Top Of Free Agent Market

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The Padres, along with the Braves, have thus far born the brunt of the burden in stoking the hot stove fire, but San Diego doesn’t anticipate being players at the top of the free agent market, per The San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee. Given the enormity of the task ahead of them – dethroning the Dodgers from their perch atop the NL West – it was natural to assume GM A.J. Preller might go for the hat trick and score another big ticket free agent. Plus, hometown kid and confirmed playoff ace Stephen Strasburg is taking meetings, and the Padres could use a slide-stopping ace to stabilize their young rotation. But alas, the Padres don’t plan on meeting Scott Boras about either Gerrit Cole or Strasburg.

Two nine-figure free agents and the promotions of top prospects like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack could not stop the string of losing season for the Padres in 2019. They stretched their streak to nine while reaching 90 losses for the fourth consecutive year. The good news for Padres fans is that even though they don’t plan on attracting another top tier free agent – help is on the way. Per Acee’s sources, Preller doesn’t feel compelled to sign a top free agent ace is because he is confident in their ability to grow them from the ground up. Both MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino have the potential to join Paddack atop the rotation in the next couple years.

Gore, 21 by Opening Day, made five starts in Double-A after blistering High-A with a 1.02 ERA in 79 1/3 innings. That’s not a typo. The young southpaw gave up just 36 hits, 20 walks, and 9 earned runs while playing for the Lake Elsinore Storm. He struck out 110 batters, good for 12.5 K/9. He is baseball’s 4th best prospect per Baseball America and MLB.com, #5 by Fangraphs.

Patino ranks as the 30th best prospect in the sport by MLB.com, 26th by Fangraphs, 29th by Baseball America. Though eight months younger than Gore, they’re on the same development track as of now. Patino registered a 2.69 ERA in High-A while little more than four years younger than league average.

Needless to say, the future is bright in San Diego, but there are pressing concerns for the present still on the docket. Preller is on the lookout for at least one reliever, potentially a starting catcher, while adding another rotation arm remains in the mix. Financially, it’s tight. They may look to shed some salary in the coming days. The payroll has already climbed north of $140MM. Per Cot’s Contracts, they ran a $97MM payroll on Opening Day last year and only once have they opened a season with a payroll over $100MM (2015).

Organizational Notes: Falvey, Red Sox, Washington, Padres, Royals

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Some front office and dugout items from around the game…

  • Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey turned down a request to interview for the top baseball operations job with the Red Sox, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.  There wasn’t much public news about Boston’s search prior to the hiring of Chaim Bloom as the new CBO earlier this week, though there had been rumors that the Sox might have interest in Massachusetts native Falvey, and Neal indeed writes that Falvey was “high on their list of candidates.”  Reports from earlier this month suggested that Falvey and the Twins could be close to a contract extension, in the wake of Minnesota’s 101-win season.
  • Braves third base coach Ron Washington was the runner-up in the Padres’ managerial search and also won’t be taking on a bench coach job with San Diego, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports (subscription required).  There had been speculation that Washington could provide a veteran counsel to first-time manager Jayce Tingler, though it appears that Washington will remain in his current job in Atlanta.
  • Lin’s piece also details the risk GM A.J. Preller is taking in hiring another first-time skipper in what seems like a must-win year for the Padres.  Going into such a pivotal season, however, Preller “preferred to take his chances with a candidate he clearly knows and has long held in high regard.”  Lin also notes that Preller originally tried to hire Tingler away from the Rangers when Preller first became San Diego’s general manager back in 2014.
  • The general consensus has been that the Royals would wait to hire their new manager until John Sherman officially took ownership of the franchise, though GM Dayton Moore tells Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star that this isn’t the case.  “We have been given full autonomy to hire the next manager of the Kansas City Royals when we feel that we are ready and the process is complete.  That could be today, tomorrow or sometime prior to the winter meetings,” Moore said, noting that Sherman has already been involved in the search process.”  Since Moore described the front office as still being “in the middle of a very thorough process,” however, a new managerial hire doesn’t yet seem near.  Royals special advisor and former Cardinals manager Mike Matheny has been widely seen as the favorite for the job, and to date, the only other publicly known candidates are also internal names, though the club has spoken to some external candidates.

NL West Notes: Posey, Blackmon, Davis, Padres

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Buster Posey left Saturday’s game after suffering a hamstring injury while running out a ground ball.  The Giants called up catcher Aramis Garcia for today’s game while Posey didn’t play, though manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including MLB.com’s Maria Guardado) that Posey’s sore hamstring isn’t thought to be too serious.  “It’s hard to go into a game with one catcher.  Could Buster go back there? Probably, but I think we’d put him at risk to make it worse…This makes sense right now for a day to see how Buster’s doing,” Bochy said.  “It gives us some time. After the day off in New York, we’ll see if he’s available to go.”  Posey is hitting just .253/.311/.387 through 168 plate appearances, and is on pace for the weakest hitting season of his ten full seasons in the big leagues.  The longtime Giants star has been swinging the bat a bit better since returning from a brief stint on the concussion IL earlier this month, so Posey and the team are obviously hoping his hamstring problem won’t again put him on the sidelines.

Here’s some more from around the NL West…

  • Charlie Blackmon is eligible to come off the IL on Tuesday, though Rockies manager Bud Black told reporters (including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post) that Blackmon will remain out of action longer than the 10-day minimum.  Blackmon took batting practice and shagged some fly balls on Sunday, though he might still need a rehab stint in the minors.  Blackmon was hitting .300/.356/.565 at the time of his injury, though the Rockies have surprisingly not missed his bat — Colorado has a 9-1 record in Blackmon’s absence.  “Now that they’ve got me out of there, we’re taking off,” the outfielder joked.
  • In other Rockies injury news, Black said closer Wade Davis could also pitch in a minor league rehab game or a simulated game before returning to the active roster.  Davis threw a bullpen session today, so the right-hander looks to on pace for a relatively quick recovery from a left oblique strain that IL’ed him on May 22.
  • Padres general manager A.J. Preller spoke to reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) today about how the front office will turn its focus to the deadline once the draft is passed.  With the Padres still in the wild card mix, this could mark the first time in Preller’s tenure that the club will be buyers rather than sellers in July, though Preller stressed that the team isn’t planning an all-in push.  “This year we can look at going a lot of different routes….But the most important thing we’ve talked about is it’s still going to be looking toward the long term and looking toward building for the next five years and nothing that will sacrifice that over the next five weeks or so,” the GM said.  San Diego has been linked to a wide array of starting pitchers over the last several months, though “there appears to be increasing pessimism the Padres will sign free agent Dallas Keuchel,” Acee writes, since the Padres have young starters for their rotation and the club would have to outbid several other teams for Keuchel’s services.
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