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Phillies Place Jose Alvarado On Injured List

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6:29pm: The MRI showed only inflammation, no structural damage, Thomson told reporters (including Gelb). He’ll be shut down from throwing for a few days but seems to have avoided a serious injury.

12:14pm: Alvarado has already undergone an MRI and is meeting with a doctor to evaluate the results, tweets Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Gelb adds that manager Rob Thomson has acknowledged that he is “a little concerned, for sure.”

11:07am: The Phillies announced Wednesday that closer Jose Alvarado has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to inflammation in his left elbow. His IL stint is retroactive to May 8. Right-hander Andrew Bellatti has been reinstated from the 15-day injured list in place of Alvarado.

The team hasn’t provided a timetable on the injury yet, but the loss of Alvarado even for a minimal stint is a notable blow to the roster. Alvarado, who signed a two-year extension prior to the season, has been one of the most dominant relievers in Major League Baseball this season. He’s fired 14 1/3 innings of 1.88 ERA ball with a sensational 46.2% strikeout rate that trails only Cincinnati’s Alexis Diaz for the MLB lead. More impressive is the fact that Alvarado, whose previous command issues are well documented, has yet to issue a walk or hit a batter so far in 2023.

With Alvarado sidelined for at least the next two weeks the Phillies will likely turn to a combination of Craig Kimbrel, Seranthony Dominguez and perhaps Gregory Soto to close down games. Alvarado leads the team with five saves but hasn’t been the sole closer anyhow, as Kimbrel has three saves of his own.

Kimbrel was tagged for three runs in his first appearance of the season before going on a dominant stretch of 10 appearances (10 2/3 innings, two runs, 14-to-4 K/BB ratio). He’s since slipped again, yielding a combined six runs in one inning during two appearances at Dodger Stadium earlier this month, which sent his ERA careening to its current 7.62 level. Dominguez saved nine games for the 2022 Phillies but currently has a 5.02 ERA and has seen his strikeout rate plummet from 29.5% to 20.5% in 2023. Soto notched 30 saves for the 2022 Tigers and is sporing a career-best 30.8% strikeout rate, but he’s also walked 13.8% of his opponents, which has contributed to a lackluster 4.50 ERA.

Suffice it to say, the Phillies certainly aren’t lacking in talented arms with closing experience. However, Alvarado was the only one of the bunch performing at an elite (or even above-average) level early in the 2023 season. They’ll hope for a quick turnaround with no long-term, lingering effects — due both to his general excellence and the nature of the contract he signed six weeks ago. Alvarado would’ve been a free agent following the 2023 season, but he signed a two-year, $18.55MM extension with a club option for a third year in 2026.

The Encouraging Developments Of Brandon Marsh

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Just as the trade deadline was approaching last year, the Phillies sent sent catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe to the Angels in order to acquire center fielder Brandon Marsh. The latter was one of the top prospects in the league a few years ago but was relatively overshadowed on an Angels team that had stars like Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Marsh was perhaps best known for trying to make his head suit his surname, as he didn’t do too much to stand out with the bat.

Making his debut in 2021, he got into 70 games and took 260 trips to the plate. He struck out in 35% of those, walked in 7.7% of them and hit just a pair of home runs. He finished that year with a .254/.317/.356 batting line and an 85 wRC+, indicating he was 15% below league average. Up until the trade last year, it was more of the same. In 323 plate appearances for the Halos prior to the deal, he struck out 36.2% of the time, walked at a 6.8% clip and slashed .226/.284/.353 for a 79 wRC+.

The move to the Phillies seems to have been a turning point, however. His walk rate actually dropped to 4.3% after coming to Philadelphia last year, but his strikeout also dipped to 29.7%. That was still much higher than league average but a noticeable improvement from his own track record. That led to a .288/.319/.455 batting line and 114 wRC+. Here in 2023, he’s off to a tremendous .314/.402/.578 start and a 164 wRC+.

There’s one big caveat to throw out here, as Marsh currently has a .444 batting average on balls in play that no hitter could sustain. Last year’s league leader, for instance, was Paul Goldschmidt and his .368 mark. Once Marsh sees his BABIP figure regress, his overall numbers won’t be quite so gaudy. But digging under the hood reveals there’s still plenty of things to be encouraged by. He’s striking out at a 29.9% clip that is definitely still high but more manageable than the roughly 35% clip he was at previously. He’s also walking at an amazing 12% clip, well above this year’s 8.8% league average. Considering how rarely he took free passes before, that’s an excellent sign.

The batted ball metrics also shed some positive light on the better results, as basically everything has improved relative to last year. His barrel rate is up from 7.4% to 10.4%. His average exit velocity was 89.2 mph last year but is at 92 mph in 2023. His hard hit rate has gone from 38.2% to 47.8%. It’s still a fairly small sample of 117 plate appearances but he’s striking out less, walking more, hitting the ball harder and doing so more often. And it doesn’t seem to have come out of nowhere.

Back in October, when the Phillies were in the World Series, Marsh and hitting coach Kevin Long spoke to Sam Blum of The Athletic about the changes that had been made to his swing. “I devised a game plan on what I was going to do with his swing,” Long said. “And the mechanics of his swing. I always start by getting guys closer to the hitting position than further away. So we spread him out. We got him into his legs. It worked.”

All of these offensive improvements are a great coup since Marsh was already a valuable contributor as a glove-first center fielder. Defensive Runs Saved doesn’t seem to like him in center much, putting him slightly below average in each of his three seasons thus far. Ultimate Zone Rating has him in the positive range, though, and Outs Above Average has him at +5 through 1,251 innings. Marsh is also ranked in the 88th percentile in terms of sprint speed and has 17 stolen bases in his career thus far.

With all of those traits, FanGraphs calculated him as having produced 2.4 wins above replacement in 204 games over 2021 and 2022, even while hitting at a subpar rate. Now with much better offense this year, he’s already at 1.3 fWAR in just 33 games, more than halfway to his previous total in a fraction of the time. As mentioned earlier, he’s due for a bit of regression, but there are reasons to suspect he’ll eventually settle somewhere that’s much better than his previous work.

The 25-year-old came into this year with one year and 78 days of service time, meaning he won’t qualify for arbitration until after 2024 and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2027. For a Phillies team that has spent big on players including Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos, and would also like to get Aaron Nola signed to an extension, getting big value out of an overlooked player like Marsh is an important victory.

Royals Designate Franmil Reyes For Assignment

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The Royals have acquired righty James McArthur from the Phillies in exchange for minor league outfielder Junior Marin, per a team announcement. Outfielder/DH Franmil Reyes was designated for assignment in a corresponding move. McArthur, who was designated for assignment by the Phils a few days back, will be assigned to Triple-A Omaha.

Kansas City signed Reyes, 27, to a minor league deal back in February, hoping that the 6’5″ slugger could recapture some of the form he’d showed with San Diego and Cleveland in years past. Reyes has a pair of 30-homer campaigns under his belt, including a 37-homer effort back in 2019. Overall, from 2018-21, he posted a combined .260/.325/.503 with 92 home runs in 1540 plate appearances. Strikeouts were an issue, as he fanned in 29.5% of his trips to the plate during that stretch, but Reyes offset that issue with his prodigious power and a respectable nine percent walk rate.

Things went south in a hurry in 2022, however, and they’ve gone from bad to worse in 2023. Reyes batted just .213/.254/.350 with a mammoth 37.1% strikeout rate in 280 plate appearances with the Guardians last year before being placed on waivers and claimed by the Cubs. A .234/.301/.389 showing down the stretch in Chicago resulted in an outright off the 40-man roster and minor league free agency, which eventually brought Reyes to Kansas City.

Though Reyes slugged a pair of early homers and had a brief hot streak in mid-April, he was optioned to Triple-A after going hitless and failing to reach base in 20 consecutive plate appearances. That swoon dropped him to a .186/.231/.288 batting line and sent his strikeout rate soaring to 36.9%. In four Triple-A games, he’s gone 3-for-15 with a homer, a walk and seven strikeouts (18 total plate appearances).

The Royals will have a week to trade Reyes, place him on outright waivers, or release him. His minor league contract came with a $2MM base salary, which makes it all the likelier that he’d pass through outright waivers unclaimed if the team goes that route.

In place of Reyes, the Royals will hope to unlock something in the 26-year-old McArthur — a towering 6’7″, 230-pound righty who has yet to make his big league debut. McArthur has opened the 2023 season with a rough patch in Triple-A Lehigh Valley, yielding 13 runs on 20 hits, seven walks and a pair of hit batters against 15 strikeouts in 16 innings of work. That’s his first taste of Triple-A after spending the two prior seasons in Double-A Reading, where he combined for a 4.73 ERA with a 24.7% strikeout rate against an 8.4% walk rate in 131 innings.

McArthur has worked primarily as a starter in the minors (including this year in Triple-A), though FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote in his April overview of the Phillies’ system that McArthur was sitting 94-96 mph during short relief stints in spring training. Pitchers this tall can often have difficulty repeating their mechanics and thus be pushed to the bullpen, and it’s possible that’s where McArthur will ultimately land.

The Royals have Major League Baseball’s third-worst rotation ERA and fourth-worst bullpen ERA, so it’s hardly a surprise to see them adding nearly MLB-ready depth. McArthur doesn’t possess a huge ceiling, but he’s not far off from being ready for a Major League look, and Kansas City needs all the arms it can get at this point.

In exchange for some near-MLB pitching help, the Royals will part ways with a teenage outfield prospect who is likely years from being anywhere close to a consideration at the big league level. Marin turned 19 in mid-March and hasn’t yet advanced beyond Rookie ball. He’s already listed at 6’2″ and 240 pounds and has played right field near exclusively, with only a two-game cameo in left otherwise. Marin is a .328/.425/.554 hitter in 214 professional plate appearances but also struck out 31 times in 103 plate appearances with Kansas City’s affiliate in the Arizona Complex League last year. There’s some obvious power in his bat, but he wasn’t ranked among the best prospects in a sub-par Royals farm system and will now be a years-long development project for the Phillies.

NL East Notes: Nola, Strahm, Suarez, Mets, Wright

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Phillies starter Aaron Nola will go into the off-season as one of the top available free agent pitchers, but Philadelphia’s expected to make a strong push to re-sign him, according to a report from the New York Post’s Jon Heyman.

It’s reported that the Phillies had at least some discussion with Nola this past winter about an extension, but their offer – which came in north of $100MM but south of the $162MM Carlos Rodon received from the Yankees – clearly didn’t get the job done. Heyman adds that Nola prefers a return to Philadelphia, and while 29 other teams could make a run at him in the winter, the Phillies will likely try again to keep him in town.

Nola’s off to a slower start than usual this year, working to a 4.64 ERA through his first seven starts, but has been one of the game’s most durable pitchers in recent seasons. He’s made more than 30 starts in every full season going back to 2018, and has compiled a very healthy 3.47 ERA in that time with above average walk and strikeout rates. As for this season, seven starts is not an insignificant sample size, and a slight drop in velocity in his fastball has seen his strikeout rate dip to just 19.2%, the lowest rate of his career.

As Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer noted about a week ago, Nola is a slow worker and the pitch clock change has been a tough adjustment for him. In any case, it’s certainly too early to write off Nola based on seven starts and it’s worth noting that the bulk of the damage was done in his first three starts, and he’s averaging almost seven innings per start with a 3.29 ERA since then.

While there’s still a full season to play out, Nola’s track record should stand him in good stead to do well in free agency. While he may not possess the dominant stuff Rodon displayed in the past two seasons, his durability is far superior and as we see so often, that is a huge value add for starting pitchers. With that in mind, it’s unsurprising Nola seemingly wasn’t interested in a deal below Rodon’s $162MM.

Here’s some more notes from around the NL East:

  • Sticking with the Phillies to begin with, and they’ll move Matt Strahm back to the bullpen with Ranger Suarez expected to return to the rotation shortly, per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Strahm’s given the Phillies some solid value out of the rotation, making six starts and working to a 3.51 ERA – including three scoreless starts. That’s been hugely helpful to a Phillies rotation that’s been slow out of the gates, with Nola and Zack Wheeler sporting ERAs above four and off-season recruit Taijuan Walker sitting at 6.91. The return of Suarez from an elbow injury will be a welcome addition, particularly if he can continue the excellent work he put in last season, where he worked to a 3.65 ERA across 29 starts. The Phillies have made a slow start to the season, sitting 15-18 entering play Saturday and seven games adrift of the Braves in first place, so the return of players like Suarez and Bryce Harper will be critical to getting them back in the race for one of baseball’s more competitive divisions.
  • The Mets are one more team off to a slower than expected start, after another busy off-season they sit 17-16 entering play Saturday. That’s not concerning GM Billy Eppler though, who told reporters (including Tim Britton of The Athletic) that he still believes in this roster. “I believe in this team and the players that are here. There’s too much track record, there’s too much these guys have accomplished, there’s too much know-how,” Eppler said. While a 17-16 record is certainly not the end of the world, the Mets expected better and one focus might be the top of the team’s payroll, where some of their highly-paid stars are underperforming through the first month. Starling Marte is hitting just .219/.299/.286 while Max Scherzer has a 5.56 ERA, yet Eppler says he’s not concerned by either. The Mets also just welcomed back Justin Verlander from the IL, so his return to the rotation will provide a big boost as they look to keep up with the Braves.
  • Kyle Wright’s MRI revealed a right shoulder strain which the Braves will re-evaluate at a later date, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. There is currently no timetable for his return. After a breakout season in 2022 which saw him finish tenth in NL Cy Young voting, Wright’s struggled in 2023, working to a 5.79 ERA in five starts. It seems likely the shoulder played a part in that step back, given Wright dealt with shoulder problems during spring training, and started the season on the IL. That’s a blow for Wright, who made 30 starts and pitched to a 3.19 ERA last season. The Braves, at least, are in a good position to weather the loss of Wright, with Spencer Strider, Max Fried and Charlie Morton all well established arms in Atlanta’s rotation, and Bryce Elder enjoying a strong start to the season.

Astros Acquire Nick Allgeyer From Phillies

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The Astros acquired minor league lefty Nick Allgeyer from the Phillies in exchange for cash considerations this afternoon, as reflected on the MLB.com transaction tracker. He’ll report to Houston’s top affiliate in Sugar Land.

Initially selected by the Blue Jays in the 12th round of the 2018 draft, Allgeyer pitched his way to the upper levels of the Toronto system. He earned a cup of coffee at the big league level in 2021, tossing one inning of scoreless relief. The Jays ran him through outright waivers quickly thereafter, however, and he hasn’t made it back to the majors since that point.

For the past two-plus years, the University of Iowa product has mostly pitched in Triple-A. He’s worked in a swing role, starting 36 of 61 appearances. Over 202 1/3 Triple-A frames, Allgeyer carries a 5.34 ERA with a slightly below-average 20.9% strikeout rate and an elevated 11% walk percentage. Allgeyer started four games with the Phils’ top affiliate after signing a minor league contract over the winter. He’s struck out 15 and walked six in 12 innings of six-run ball while keeping the ball on the ground at a solid 48.3% clip.

Allgeyer adds some upper level rotation help to an organization whose starting pitching depth is being tested. Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. are all on the injured list. Garcia is done for the year after today’s announcement that he’ll undergo Tommy John surgery. That has pushed Brandon Bielak and J.P. France to the MLB rotation, while some of Houston’s other depth starters are battling injuries of their own.

Righty Shawn Dubin was placed on the minor league injured list today. Former top prospect Forrest Whitley is dealing with minor soreness near his throwing shoulder and will take a day or two off throwing, reports Brian McTaggart of MLB.com (Twitter link). Both Dubin and Whitley are on the 40-man roster, though neither has yet pitched in the majors.

Phillies Select Jeff Hoffman, Designate James McArthur

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The Phillies announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Jeff Hoffman. To open a spot on the active roster, fellow right-hander Yunior Marté was optioned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. To create room on the 40-man roster, righty James McArthur was designated for assignment. The club also announced that righty Nick Nelson, who was on the injured list with a hamstring strain, was reinstated from the IL and optioned to Double-A Reading.

It was reported earlier today that Hoffman had an opt-out in his minor league deal, which he had triggered on Monday. The club then had 48 hours to add him to the big league roster or release. More than 48 hours have elapsed since then, but it seems the two sides worked something out to get Hoffman his roster spot today.

The 30-year-old Hoffman signed a minor league deal with the Twins in the offseason but he had opt-outs in that deal, the first of which was at the end of March. He didn’t make the club out of camp and was granted his release, signing another minor league contract, but this time with the Phillies. The latter deal came with a $1.3MM base salary and opt-outs on May 1 and July 1.

The righty reported to Lehigh Valley and made nine appearances. His ERA of 7.00 in that time certainly isn’t pretty, nor is his 17.9% walk rate. However, he struck out 41% of batters faced and also had an unfortunate strand rate of 37.7%, leading to a much more palatable FIP of 3.71. Matt Gelb of The Athletic had reported earlier that Hoffman has been touching 99 mph in that short stint.

In a sense, that mixed bag is a sort of microcosm of Hoffman’s career. He’s long tantalized clubs with his power arm, getting selected ninth overall by the Blue Jays back in 2014. He’s since bounced around to the Rockies and Reds, logging 348 1/3 innings with a 5.68 ERA while walking 11.1% of batters faced. Last year was a bit more encouraging as he pitched for the Reds exclusively as a reliever, apart from one outing as an opener. He finished the year with a 3.83 ERA in 44 2/3 innings, striking out 22.8% of batters faced but with a high walk rate of 11.7%.

The Phils will give him a shot to see if he can harness his stuff at the big league level this year. If he’s able to succeed and hang onto his roster spot, they would have the ability to retain him via arbitration for another season as well. Hoffman currently has four years and 105 days of service time, meaning he would be between five and six years if he stayed up the rest of the way. But if the Phils want to remove him from the roster at any point, Hoffman is out of options and would have to be designated for assignment.

In order to prevent Hoffman from returning to the open market, the Phils have removed McArthur from their roster. A 12th round pick of the Phils in 2018, he was added to the 40-man roster in November of 2021 to prevent him from being selected in that year’s Rule 5 draft. At that time, he had just finished a season in which he tossed 78 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A with a 4.25 ERA. Unfortunately, he’s hit a few speed bumps since then, making just 13 starts last year before suffering a stress reaction in his throwing elbow that prevented him from pitching after June. He reached Triple-A for the first time this year but has a 7.31 ERA through 16 innings.

The Phils will now have a week to trade McArthur or pass him through waivers. His rough showing this year notwithstanding, he’s a starter that can be optioned to the minors. Given that multiple clubs around the league are dealing with significant rotation injuries, it’s possible one of them could be interested in picking him up.

Jeff Hoffman Exercises Opt-Out Clause In Phillies Deal

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Right-hander Jeff Hoffman exercised the opt-out clause in his minor league contract with the Phillies on Monday, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic. That gave the Phillies a 48-hour window to add him to the big league roster or release him. Forty-eight hours have since elapsed without an announcement from the team either way; it’s possible the two parties agreed that his contract would be selected in the coming days, but barring that Hoffman would become a free agent in short order.

The 30-year-old Hoffman spent spring training with the Twins but opted out of that deal upon being informed he had not made the roster. He signed with the Phillies shortly thereafter and has spent the first month of the season with their Triple-A affiliate in Lehigh Valley, where he’s yielded seven runs in nine innings of relief. Hoffman has only surrendered five hits, but he’s also issued a free pass to seven of his 39 opponents (17.9%). Those red flags notwithstanding, he’s also punched out a whopping 16 of those 39 hitters (41%), and Gelb notes that his fastball has touched 99 mph with the IronPigs.

Command issues aren’t exactly a new phenomenon for Hoffman, the No. 9 overall pick in the 2014 draft. He’s pitched 348 1/3 innings across parts of seven big league seasons with the Rockies and Reds, walking 11.1% of his opponents against a 20.3% strikeout rate en route to a lackluster 5.68 ERA. The increased velocity and uptick in missed bats, however, figure to pique the interest of other teams, just as they did for the Phillies and Twins. In addition to his gaudy strikeout numbers in Lehigh Valley, Hoffman whiffed eight of the 19 hitters he faced in spring training with Minnesota (42.1%).

Hoffman entered the 2023 season with four years, 105 days of Major League service time, so if he does land with another club and prove capable of sticking in the Majors, he’d reach five years of service this season (assuming 67 days in the bigs) and be controllable for another year via arbitration.

Phillies Reinstate Bryce Harper

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May 2: The Phillies have officially announced Harper’s activation, optioning outfielder Jake Cave in a corresponding move.

May 1: Bryce Harper has been cleared to return to the Phillies and is expected to be in the club’s lineup as the designated hitter tomorrow, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.

Harper was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in May of last year but played through the ailment, serving as the designated hitter since he was able to hit but not throw. He eventually underwent Tommy John surgery in November, after the club had charged all the way to the World Series. The club initially announced his expected return for around the All-Star break in July, but it became clear in recent weeks that he had a chance to beat that. The Phils never put him on the 60-day injured list, leaving the door open for him to return in the first couple months of the season.

It had recently been reported that Harper would be visiting Dr. Neal ElAttrache, the Los Angeles-based surgeon who performed his TJS procedure, while the club is in town to play the Dodgers. It seemed earlier today that Harper got the good news he was looking for, as he took to Instagram and posted some pictures of himself with the teasing message “Aye Pham. You ready?” It now seems to be confirmed that he has been given the green light to return to hitting, allowing him to take up the DH spot for the Phils.

Once he’s back on the lineup, he will have completed what seems to be the quickest return to action after going under the knife for Tommy John. Shohei Ohtani was previously one of the fastest to get back on the field, as he underwent the procedure in October of 2018 and was back on the field in May of the following year.

Harper will obviously provide a huge boost to the lineup, having been one of the best hitters in the league for over a decade now. Even while dealing with the UCL tear and missing time with a broken thumb last year, he still hit .286/.364/.514 for a wRC+ of 138, indicating he was 38% better than the league average hitter. If there’s one small downside to Harper’s return, it’s that it will make the club a bit less flexible in setting its lineups. So far this year, most of the DH time has gone to Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos, who are both generally considered subpar defenders in the outfield corners. Assuming the Phils have the freedom to use Harper on an everyday basis, that will likely mean having Schwarber and Castellanos in the field more often.

But that’s a small price to pay for an elite bat like Harper. What remains to be seen is when he will be able to return to the field. The initial timeline was that he could potentially return to right field towards the end of the season. However, Harper has been beating every timeline that’s been put in front of him and has also been getting some work in at first base. That position generally involves less stress on the throwing elbow than playing in the outfield and could perhaps allow him to move off the designated hitter spot earlier.

Regardless of when Harper can again play defense, he’s a tremendous boost to the lineup after missing just over a month of the 2023 season. The Phils have managed to stay afloat without him, going 15-14 so far. They are a few games out in the playoff race right now but should get some extra momentum for the remainder of the schedule.

Matt Strahm Is Taking Advantage Of His Starting Opportunity

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Left-hander Matt Strahm missed part of 2020 and most of 2021 due to knee injuries but bounced back with a solid season for the Red Sox in 2022. He made 50 appearances out of their bullpen, tossing 44 2/3 innings with a 3.83 ERA. His 36.8% ground ball rate was below average but he struck out a strong 26.9% of batters faced while posting an 8.8% walk rate that was very close to league average.

He reached free agency at the end of the year and was in a mix of left-handed relievers that also included such names as Taylor Rogers, Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore, Aroldis Chapman, Brad Hand and Zack Britton. Strahm was the first of that group to sign, with he and the Phillies reaching a deal in early December for two years and a $15MM guarantee. A few weeks later, Rogers signed with the Giants for three years and $33MM, naturally topping Strahm given his longer track record as an effective reliever. He came into this year with 385 relief appearances compared to Strahm’s 182.

The rest of the group would linger on the market for a while as the season approached. Like Rogers, they each generally had longer résumés than Strahm in terms of working as effective relievers. Strahm oscillated between starting and relieving in his first few seasons and then dealt with injuries a bit in 2020 and more so in 2021. That meant he really only had one full season of healthy and effective work as a reliever. But then someone like Chafin, as an example, had essentially a decade-long track record of success in the job. He finished 2022 with a career ERA of 3.23 over 476 appearances dating back to 2014. Hand was fairly similar, having been a solid bullpen option since converting to relief full-time in 2016. Chapman had a rough 2022 but had previously been one of the most dominant relievers in the sport for quite a long time. Same for Britton prior to his recent injury woes. Moore had only recently joined the bullpen but had previously been a top prospect and had some success as a starter in the past.

Chapman went on to sign with the Royals at the end of January for one year and $3.75MM plus incentives. Chafin agreed with the Diamondbacks in mid-February for one year and $6.25MM with incentives and a club option for 2024. Moore agreed with the Angels shortly after that for one year and $7.55MM. Hand stayed unsigned until early March when Spring Training was well underway, agreeing with the Rockies for one year and $2MM plus incentives. Britton remains unsigned to this day.

Although it was a bit surprising to see Strahm top everyone in that group, his 2023 perhaps illustrates why that might have been the case. Though he was producing quality work as a reliever with the Red Sox last year, he consistently spoke about wanting to regain a job as a starter in the future. Strahm had made 25 starts earlier in his career with the Padres but never quite stuck, both due to injuries and some inconsistent performances. The Phillies didn’t seem to be planning on giving him that job initially, but he has it now.

The Phils went into Spring Training with a planned rotation of Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Taijuan Walker and Ranger Suárez in the front four. The fifth spot was left open to be a competition, with the hope being that top prospect Andrew Painter could seize the job in camp even though he wouldn’t turn 20 years old until early April. If that didn’t come to fruition, the club had fallback options such as Bailey Falter and Cristopher Sánchez.

Unfortunately, Painter would be shut down in early March with a sprain of the UCL in his elbow. His shutdown period is over but he’s still ramping up arm strength and has yet to appear in an official game this year. In addition to that, Suárez dealt with some forearm inflammation in spring and still hasn’t made his season debut, just starting a rehab assignment last week. Sánchez was also shut down in the spring, with triceps soreness being the culprit in his case. That left two openings in the rotation next to Nola, Wheeler and Walker.

One of those openings was filled by Strahm and he has responded admirably so far. He made one relief appearance at the start of the year but has since made five starts. In 23 1/3 combined innings on the year, he has a 2.31 ERA. His 38.8% ground ball is still below average, but he’s striking out an incredible 36% of batters faced while walking just 7.9%. His .213 batting average on balls in play and 81.4% strand rate have surely helped him out a bit, but he still has a really strong 2.78 FIP and 2.94 SIERA that point to quality results even with some regression in terms of luck. Starters generally need to have a more diverse pitch arsenal than relievers and Strahm is showing that here this year. All four of the pitches he’s throwing have negative run values this season, with Statcast giving him a -1 on his cutter and sinker, a -3 on his four-seam and a -4 on his slider.

This is all a very small sample and we can’t draw too many long-term conclusions from it, but this illustrates why Strahm’s market wasn’t exactly the same as the other lefties mentioned earlier. Though the Phils went into the spring with the intention of having Strahm work out of the bullpen, they must have at least had some idea that moving back to the rotation was something they could try if the need arose. Those other free agent southpaws have all been exclusively relievers for years, except for Moore, who hadn’t really been effective out of the rotation since 2016.

Whether Strahm can keep this up remains to be seen. But if he can, it could potentially have interesting ramifications for the Phillies. Now that Suárez is on the road back to health, he should be looking to retake a rotation spot in the next few weeks. Falter still has an option year remaining and a 5.01 ERA through six starts this year. Perhaps he winds up back in the minors and Strahm keeps his spot even after Suárez is healthy. Sánchez recently came off the IL but was optioned to the minors.

There’s also the future to consider, as Strahm has a second year on his contract. The Phillies are currently slated to see Nola reach free agency this winter, as extension talks haven’t led to a deal. That leaves their on-paper rotation for 2024 as Wheeler, Walker and Suarez. Painter could theoretically take a spot if he can return to health and get back on track, but he’s still a wild card given his youth and lack of experience. Falter could be in the mix as well but Strahm could give the club an extra layer of rotation security if he continues proving himself this year.

There could also be significant fallout for Strahm personally, as he’s slated to return to the open market after 2024. His market will be somewhat limited as he’s already 31 years old and will be marketing his age-33 season at that time, but effective starters can still get paid at that age or older. There’s obviously aces like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander who are getting paid extremely well into their late 30s and early 40s, but solid mid-rotation guy Chris Bassitt just got three years and $63MM going into his age-34 season.

Cristian Pache Undergoes Knee Surgery, Expected To Miss 4-6 Weeks

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The Phillies announced that Cristian Pache underwent a successful lateral meniscectomy on his right knee today. According to the team, he’s expected to miss four to six weeks.

Pache suffered the meniscus tear during Saturday’s win over the Astros. It interrupted a solid start to the year for the 24-year-old outfielder. He’d collected nine hits (including a homer and three doubles) over 26 trips to the plate in 18 games. Pache didn’t walk and struck out six times but he’d hit for some power and logged 42 innings of center field work in a depth capacity.

Philadelphia acquired Pache from the A’s on the eve of Opening Day. A key part of Oakland’s trade return from Atlanta for Matt Olson, he only lasted one season in green and gold thanks to a .166/.218/.241 batting line in 91 MLB games. Pache had also struggled in Triple-A last year while exhausting his final minor league option season. In spite of a decent showing this spring, he didn’t break camp with Oakland and was dealt to Philadelphia for minor league pitcher Billy Sullivan rather than being placed on waivers.

The Phils have to keep Pache on the MLB roster or injured list if they don’t want to risk losing him themselves. He’d played well enough in a depth capacity for the season’s first month the team didn’t have to consider that decision. They’ll unfortunately now be without him for the next month-plus after the injury. Philadelphia recalled Dalton Guthrie to take Pache’s spot as a depth outfielder, although they could shuffle the mix tomorrow.

Bryce Harper returns from the injured list as a designated hitter, pushing Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos into the corner outfield regularly. They’ll flank Brandon Marsh, leaving Jake Cave and Guthrie without much of a path to playing time.

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