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Latest On Jordan Montgomery’s Market

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With less than a week remaining until Opening Day, left-hander Jordan Montgomery stands alone as the clear top free agent remaining on the market. That could change in the coming days, however, as Jim Bowden reported on MLB Network Radio this morning that the southpaw’s camp has two “long-term” offers on the table and that he could sign somewhere as soon as this week. It’s unclear which teams have made an offer to Montgomery at this point, though he’s be connected to the Yankees and Red Sox in recent weeks.

One club it appears is not among the two teams to have made an offer to Montgomery at this point is Philadelphia, though that’s not to say the Phillies don’t have interest in the lefty. According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Phillies are “internally discussing” a pursuit of Montgomery, though he adds that a decision on whether or not to contact Montgomery’s agent, Scott Boras, about a potential deal has not yet been made. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reported recently that the Phillies had previously shown interest in Montgomery on a one-year deal prior to the start of Spring Training last month, though he adds that the club’s interest has “cooled” in the weeks since camp began.

All of that would seem to indicate that Philadelphia is something of an unlikely landing spot for Montgomery, unless the club not only reopens negotiations with the 31-year-old’s camp but also expands their interest beyond a one-year deal into a potential multi-year arrangement. Signing a multi-year pact could certainly make some sense for Montgomery, as the southpaw was ineligible to receive a Qualifying Offer this winter and therefore is likely to see his stock negatively impacted by one in a second trip through free agency.

Of course, as recently discussed by MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald, Montgomery wouldn’t be eligible for a Qualifying Offer this coming winter if he were to sign with a club after Opening Day. Speculatively speaking, that could create a situation where Montgomery remains focused on finding a multi-year deal in the days leading up to Opening Day without considering one-year arrangements until it, and his eligibility for a Qualifying Offer this coming winter, have already passed. Reporting earlier this month suggested that Montgomery was hoping to land a seven-year deal, though it’s unclear if either of the reported offers Montgomery currently has in hand approach that length.

With that being said, a lengthy deal that features a deflated average annual value could make a great deal of sense for a club such as the Yankees that has is approaching or has already surpassed the highest threshold of the luxury tax. Any expenditures over the final $297MM threshold are taxed at a 110% rate. That reality left the Yankees reportedly disinterested in engaging with Montgomery’s fellow top-of-the-market southpaw, Blake Snell, as he pivoted towards prioritizing a short-term deal at a high AAV.

The two-year, $62MM deal Snell signed with the Giants earlier this month came with an AAV just under $30MM, which would have left the Yankees to pay more than $32MM in taxes on top of the lefty’s actual salary had they signed him to that same deal. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible that both sides could benefit as the lefty could get the long-term security he’s reportedly searching for while New York would enjoy a much smaller tax bill on a yearly basis if Montgomery were amenable to a lengthy deal at a much lower annual salary.

Of course, given how close we are to the start of the regular season, it’s fair to wonder just how quickly Montgomery would be ready to enter a club’s rotation even if he were to sign before Opening Day. It’s possible he wouldn’t be too far behind, as Travis Sawchik of theScore reported this morning that Montgomery has ramped up to 75 pitches in preparation for the start of the season. On the other hand, Sawchik acknowledges that Montgomery’s preparation process may not be a perfect analogy for work in Spring Training, which involves facing live, big-league caliber hitting and working with a club’s coaching staff. Given those discrepancies, it would be somewhat surprising if Montgomery were able to start for a club on Opening Day at this point, though it’s at least reasonable to think that his ramp-up process will shorten the time he needs to prepare for the season once signed.

Taijuan Walker, Orion Kerkering To Open Season On IL

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March 24: Walker told reporters (including Todd Zolecki of MLB.com) this afternoon that he was diagnosed with a shoulder impingement. He’ll begin the season on the injured list, though he added that rest is the only treatment required and that he hopes his stay on the shelf will be a short one.

March 23: Phillies right-hander Taijuan Walker was scratched from his recent spring start due to shoulder stiffness, manager Rob Thomson told reporters today (including Matt Gelb of The Athletic). Gelb notes that right-hander Spencer Turnbull figures to open the season in the club’s rotation if Walker begins the season on the injured list. Walker isn’t the only Phillies pitcher dealing with injury troubles, as Todd Zolecki of MLB.com adds that right-hander Orion Kerkering is will begin the season on the injured list after missing time this spring due to illness.

The twin injury updates are tough news for Phillies fans. Walker was a solid back-of-the-rotation starter for the club last year with a roughly league average 4.38 ERA and 4.53 FIP, though he was durable enough to make 31 starts for the club last year and post 172 2/3 innings of work. Now, it seems likely that Walker will miss at least the first few weeks of the regular season, though it’s difficult to say how severe his injury is barring further updates from the Phillies.

Taking Walker’s place in the rotation should he begin the season on the shelf figures to be Turnbull, a former second-round pick who spent four years as a mid-to-back of the rotation starter with the Tigers. From his big league debut through the 2021 season,  Turnbull posted a solid 4.25 ERA with an even strong 3.63 FIP. He was limited to just 54 appearances across those four seasons by injuries, however, including Tommy John surgery which limited him to nine starts in 2021 and sidelined him for the entire 2022 season.

Injury woes persisted through his return to the mound in 2023, as Turnbull struggled to a 7.26 ERA and 5.55 FIP across seven starts in the big leagues while battling neck and foot issues that caused a dispute regarding service time between Turnbull and the Tigers. Detroit eventually non-tendered Turnbull, at which point he signed with the Phillies on a big league deal. Turnbull appeared poised to begin the season as a long relief option out of the club’s bullpen, though he’s spent most of his career as a starter to this point and should have minimal trouble adjusting to the change in plans.

As for Kerkering, the soon-to-be 23-year-old right-hander made his major league debut last season, allowing one run in three innings of work while striking out six of the fourteen batters he faced. That impressive cup of coffee earned Kerkering a role on the postseason roster in Philadelphia. He pitched 5 1/3 innings of work during the postseason against the Marlins, Braves, and Diamondbacks, putting together a 3.38 ERA while striking out five and walking three.

Despite his minimal big league experience, Kerkering nonetheless had long been expected to be part of the club’s bullpen mix on Opening Day. That won’t come to fruition, however, as Kerkering will spend at least the first few weeks of the season on the shelf as he continues to prepare for the 2024 season. Kerkering’s absence, along with Turnbull’s likely move from the bullpen to the rotation, creates some level of uncertainty in the Philly bullpen. The Phillies acquired right-hander Zac Houston from the Rays earlier today, and he could join the likes of Connor Brogdon, Kolby Allard, Michael Mercado, and Yunior Marte as possible options for the two bullpen spots previously expected to go to Kerkering and Turnbull.

Note: An earlier version of this post incorrectly stated that Walker had been sent for an MRI on his shoulder. MLBTR regrets the error.

Phillies Extend Matt Strahm

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The Phillies announced this morning that they’ve signed left-hander Matt Strahm to a one-year extension. The deal comes with a vesting club option for the 2026 campaign. The ACES client had been slated to hit free agency following the 2024 campaign. Per a report from MLBTR’s Steve Adams, the deal will guarantee Strahm $7.5MM in 2025, and the option will vest for that same amount if he pitches at least 60 innings in 2025.

Strahm, 32, signed a two-year, $15MM deal with the Phillies prior to the 2023 season. His first season in Philadelphia was a resounding success, as he posted a strong 3.29 ERA with a nearly-matching 3.24 FIP in 87 2/3 innings while splitting time between the club’s rotation and bullpen. While the southpaw held his own during his time in the club’s rotation with a 4.05 ERA in 33 1/3 innings, he was nothing short of dominant in relief as he posted a sparkling 2.82 ERA while striking out 30.1% of batters faced during that time. That led the Phillies to look for additional starting pitching depth this winter, in part so they could keep Strahm in a full-time relief role rather than swing him between the rotation and bullpen as dictated by injuries to the club’s starting staff. With the club’s offseason signing of right-hander Spencer Turnbull to act as a swing man, Strahm appears poised to have a bullpen-only role for at least the start of the 2024 campaign.

The deal makes plenty of sense for the Phillies, as the club stood to lose not only Strahm but also Turnbull and Jeff Hoffman from its relief corps this winter. By extending Strahm, they’ve fortified their bullpen for 2025 and perhaps 2026, allowing the lefty to join the likes of Jose Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez, and Gregory Soto as a late-inning option for at least the next two seasons. It’s a bullpen mix that was incredibly productive for Philadelphia last year, as the club’s relief corps ranked seventh in the majors with a 3.58 ERA while the group’s fWAR was only bested by the Dodgers and Orioles.

Of course, the deal isn’t without risk on the part of Philadelphia. After all, Strahm has dealt with plenty of injuries through his eight years in the majors. The southpaw has a history of knee issues dating back to his time with the Royals back in 2017, when he underwent surgery on his left patella tendon. His knee issues lingered over the next several years and he underwent surgery once again as a member of the Padres in 2020, this time on his right patella tendon. Aside from that history of knee problems, Strahm has more recently dealt with a wrist issue that left him on the shelf for a month in 2022 while pitching for the Red Sox.

Even with Strahm’s injury history, landing a quality relief arm capable of pitching out of the rotation on a one-year guarantee is a smart move for a Phillies front office that has prioritized continuity this offseason, re-signing Aaron Nola to a seven-year pact back in November while extending ace Zack Wheeler on a three-year, $126MM contract earlier this month. Had Strahm produced similar results out of the bullpen this year as he did in 2023, it would’ve been reasonable to expect him to slot in towards the top of the left-handed relief market this winter alongside the likes of Tanner Scott and A.J. Minter. Teams looking for left-handed bullpen help this coming winter will now have one less option at their disposal, though those aforementioned names as well as veterans such as Aroldis Chapman, Matt Moore, and Brooks Raley all figure to be provide clubs will plenty of options.

Rockies To Acquire Jake Cave

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The Rockies are set to acquire first baseman/outfielder Jake Cave from the Phillies, according to Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post reports that the Rockies will be sending cash to Philadelphia in exchange for Cave’s services. Both clubs have since announced the move, and the Rockies have placed right-hander German Marquez, who is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and isn’t expected back until midseason at the earliest.

Cave, 31, was a sixth-round pick by the Yankees in the 2011 draft and made his big league debut with the Twins back in 2018. He spent five seasons in Minnesota as a reserve outfielder, slashing a collective .235/.297/.441 (92 wRC+) during that time while splitting time between all three outfield spots. Cave’s tenure with the Twins came to an end in October 2022, when he was claimed off waivers from the club by the Orioles. While he went on to sign a contract with Baltimore to avoid arbitration, he did not enter the season with the club as he was once again claimed off waivers that December, this time by the Phillies.

Cave entered the Phillies organization shortly after star right fielder Bryce Harper underwent Tommy John surgery, leaving the the club with a somewhat uncertain outfield mix. That made Cave a valuable depth option as a left-handed bat capable of playing all three outfield spots, though he faced stiff competition from the likes of Kody Clemens and Darick Hall for a spot on the club’s bench entering the 2023 season. Things changed for Cave, however, when first baseman Rhys Hoskins suffered a torn ACL that would cause him to miss the entire campaign. With a sudden hole at first base, the Phillies decided to roster Cave as an option both in the outfield corners as well as at first base, a position he had not yet played at the major league level.

The experiment did not go particularly well. While Cave performed solidly at first base with the glove, he fell well below expectations with the bat as he slashed just .212/.272/.348 (66 wRC+) in 203 trips to the plate with the club despite posting a career-best 27.1% strikeout rate. That performance wasn’t enough to deter the Phillies from offering Cave a contract this winter, as the sides successfully avoided arbitration back in November. Since then, however, it has become increasingly clear that there wasn’t a roster spot available to Cave in Philadelphia as the club instead committed bench spots to the likes of Whit Merrifield. Given the fact that Cave is out of options, the Phillies would have needed to pass him through waivers to keep him in the organization.

That provided the Rockies with the opportunity to acquire Cave for nothing but cash. The 31-year-old veteran figures to slot into a bench role with Colorado entering the season, offering a left-handed complement to the club’s righty outfielders Brenton Doyle and Sean Bouchard while also providing an alternative to Kris Bryant and Elehuris Montero at first base. While Cave’s 2023 numbers certainly leave something to be desired, the Rockies will count on the veteran bouncing back to the form he showed during his time in Minnesota. If he can do so, his career .240/.309/.421 slash line against right-handed pitching should allow him to contribute in a bench role. Should Cave struggle to open the season, other options at the Rockies’ disposal include Greg Jones, Sam Hilliard, and Bradley Zimmer.

Phillies Acquire Zac Houston From Rays

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The Phillies have acquired right-hander Zac Houston from the Rays in exchange for cash considerations, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (X link).  Topkin describes the trade as a side effect of the Rays’ crowded Triple-A pitching staff, as Houston was apparently squeezed out by the team’s desire to give more innings to younger pitchers.

The 29-year-old Houston is a career minor leaguer, beginning his pro career as an 11th-round pick of the Tigers in the 2016 draft.  (Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski had already parted ways with the Tigers almost a year before Houston’s draft date.). Working almost exclusively as a reliever, Houston has a 3.18 ERA over 305 2/3 career innings in the minors, though he has only a 4.81 ERA over 101 frames of Triple-A action.

Houston has a whopping 35.46% strikeout rate, but an equally large 12.86% walk rate across his minor league career.  The righty’s control problems have existed since the start of his pro career, and his walk problems have ticked upwards as Houston has moved up the minor league ladder.  The obvious strikeout ability makes him an interesting project for the Phillies’ pitching development staff, as Houston could be a very useful bullpen weapon if he can pair his knack for missing bats with even average control.

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies reinforced their rotation with a major extension and a major re-signing, but it was otherwise a relatively quiet offseason in the City of Brotherly Love.  After making the NLCS last year, have the Phillies done enough to book a return to the World Series?

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $35.57MM
Total spending: $183MM

Option Decisions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

In an offseason marked by several top-tier free agents lingering on the market deep into March, Aaron Nola came off the market by mid-November.  The Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals and Braves were among the teams who were at least somewhat linked to Nola, and reports suggested that Atlanta was the most fervent non-Phillies suitor.  However, Nola’s preference to remain with the Phillies led the righty to re-sign on a seven-year, $172MM pact, even though a larger offer was reportedly on the table from an unknown team.

It seems as though Philadelphia’s $172MM figure was at least close enough to this mystery offer that Nola opted to stay in a comfortable situation, and the length of the new contract could very well make Nola a Phillie for his entire career.  Chosen seventh overall by the Phils in the 2014 draft, Nola has become a true front-of-the-rotation talent, capable of delivering both big innings totals and quality results.

This isn’t to say that the deal isn’t without a few red flags.  Nola was more good than great in 2023, with a 4.46 ERA and a near-average 38.5% hard-hit ball rate.  That particular metric is important for Nola given his tendency to allow a lot of barrels, so batters have been able to tag the veteran for a lot of home runs when they’re able to truly square up on the ball.  Nola’s curveball was also just an average pitch in 2023, after years of being at least a plus offering and sometimes one of the more effective pitches in the sport.

Nola’s strikeout rate was still above average, and for the third straight season he continued to be one of baseball’s best at limiting walks.  It also wouldn’t have been easy for the Phillies to fill all of the innings that the durable Nola has brought to the rotation, not to mention his behind-the-scenes status as a clubhouse leader.  Though Philadelphia checked in with Sonny Gray as a potential alternate if Nola went elsewhere, both Nola and the Phillies preferred the familiarity of their longtime relationship.

Philadelphia’s other big rotation investment didn’t come until Spring Training, and it again involved the Phillies locking up an in-house name.  Zack Wheeler is entering the final season of the five-year, $118MM contract he signed in December 2019, but he’ll now continue his Phillies tenure after signing a three-year, $126MM extension that begins with the 2025 campaign.  The new deal keeps Wheeler in the fold through his age-37 season, though he hasn’t shown many signs of slowing down, as he finished sixth in NL Cy Young Award voting last year.

Neither president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski or owner John Middleton have been very hesitant about spending, and the Nola/Wheeler contracts continue the Phillies’ simple (but effective) strategy of upgrading the roster via high-priced, name-brand talent.  The result has been an NL pennant in 2022 and an NLCS appearance in 2023, as the Phillies exceeded the luxury tax in both seasons.  Even with Wheeler’s extension not going onto the books until next year, RosterResource estimates a $261.8MM tax number for the Phillies in 2024, again putting the team over not just the $237MM tax threshold but also the $257MM second penalty tier.

The tax considerations could explain why the Phillies didn’t do all that much this winter, though there’s also the basic fact that the roster is largely set.  For instance, the door seemed to close on a reunion with Rhys Hoskins when the Phillies announced that Bryce Harper would be the everyday first baseman in 2024 and beyond.  With Harper now at first base and Kyle Schwarber as the full-time DH, Hoskins (who missed all of 2023 due to a torn ACL) was the odd man out, and he instead signed a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers.

Wheeler and Nola headline a rotation that also includes Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez, and the everyday lineup also looked more or less complete until the news broke in early February that Brandon Marsh would be sidelined for 3-4 weeks in the aftermath of arthroscopic knee surgery.  Marsh is back playing Spring Training games and should be ready for Opening Day, though it probably isn’t a coincidence that about a week after Marsh’s surgery was announced, Whit Merrifield was signed to a one-year, $8MM guarantee.

Merrifield’s unusual 2023 season included a spot on the AL All-Star team, but also a brutal second-half slump that saw him hit only .212/.250/.288 over his last 196 plate appearances.  The cold streak cost Merrifield playing time in the Blue Jays’ lineup, and it wasn’t a surprise that both Merrifield and the Jays declined their ends of the veteran’s $18MM mutual option for the 2024 season.

As he enters his age-35 season, the right-handed hitting Merrifield provides some platoon depth behind the lefty-swinging Bryson Stott (at second base) and Marsh (in left field).  There’s a chance Merrifield could get more playing time in left field if Marsh is needed in center field, as while Philadelphia would love to see defensive standout Johan Rojas win the everyday center field job, Rojas has looked overmatched at the plate in Spring Training.  Rojas was more than respectable (.302/.342/.430) over his first 164 big league PA in 2023, though since he doesn’t have any Triple-A experience, the Phillies might choose to give Rojas a bit more time in the minors to begin the season in order to get his bat on track.

Jordan Luplow was also brought into spring camp on a minors deal, and Luplow joins David Dahl (another non-roster signing), Cristian Pache, and Jake Cave as depth options.  Pache and Cave are both out of minor league options, which creates an interesting decision for the Phils as they decide who will earn the backup outfield spot on the Opening Day roster.

Dombrowski said in December that the team would look for additions “more around the edges” of the roster, considering how the team was lacking in major question marks after Nola was re-signed.  This approach was manifested in the low-cost signings of Spencer Turnbull and Kolby Allard, who provide some depth to the rotation and bullpen mix.  Additionally, Max Castillo was claimed off waivers and Michael Rucker was acquired in a deal with the Cubs.

This was pretty much it as far as bullpen additions, even though the closer role seemed to open up when Craig Kimbrel left in free agency.  Philadelphia reportedly looked into Robert Stephenson, Jordan Hicks, Phil Maton, and Jakob Junis before all four pitchers signed elsewhere, and nothing much seemed to materialize between the Phils and Josh Hader, despite a lot of speculation early in the offseason that Hader was a natural fit for a team in need of ninth-inning help.

Strikeout machine Jose Alvarado now looks like the favorite for the closer’s job, though he had some injury problems in 2023 and has long struggled to limit walks.  Any of Gregory Soto, Jeff Hoffman, Seranthony Dominguez, or Orion Kerkering could get save chances within the somewhat fluid Phillies bullpen situation, and the team would particularly love to see the hard-throwing Kerkering emerge as a legitimate bullpen weapon.  Kerkering still only has two seasons of pro experience, however, and the rookie was sidelined for a good chunk of Spring Training due to the flu.

There are enough interesting options on hand that the Phillies might be comfortable with their bullpen for now.  However, it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see the Phillies add another relief arm once teams start making roster cuts late in Spring Training, and Dombrowski might well seek out more high-leverage help closer to the trade deadline.

In terms of other big moves on the offseason radar, the Phils were among the most serious suitors for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, as the team reportedly offered the Japanese phenom a 12-year contract.  Yamamoto ended up signing with the Dodgers for $325MM over a 12-year term, so it seems like the Phillies at least got themselves in the ballpark even if the financial terms of their offer are still unknown.

Yamamoto’s age (25), obvious talent, and the Phillies’ desire to increase their presence in the Japanese market combined to generate the aggressive bid, as this same perfect storm didn’t exist for any other big names.  Philadelphia was only very loosely linked to the Juan Soto trade talks or to Cody Bellinger’s free agent market, and the club had some limited (and perhaps just due diligence) interest in Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.  Since Montgomery is still without a team this close to Opening Day, the Phillies could technically still emerge as a bidder at the eleventh hour, even it doesn’t seem too likely that the Phils would offer the kind of long-term contract Montgomery was apparently still seeking as recently as two weeks ago.

The Phillies also added another year onto manager Rob Thomson’s contract, continuing the offseason’s overall “running it back” theme.  Standing pat is justifiable considering how successful Philadelphia has been in the last two seasons, and there is also some reason to believe the Phillies could be even better.  Harper is now fully healthy after two injury-marred seasons, and younger players like Stott, Marsh, Sanchez, Rojas and/or Kerkering could further emerge with more Major League playing time under their belts.  The real test will come in October when the Phillies try to take that final step towards a championship, and as presently constructed, it looks like Philadelphia should again be in contention.

Phillies, Jordan Luplow Agree To Minor League Contract

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The Phillies have an agreement with free agent outfielder Jordan Luplow on a minor league deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). He was released from a non-roster pact with the Braves last night. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo reported this afternoon (on X) that the Phils might have interest.

Luplow is a right-handed hitter who has hit for power against lefty pitching. The veteran has connected on 33 longballs in 565 big league plate appearances against southpaws. He’s only a .197/.287/.343 hitter versus right-handed pitching, so he’s best suited in a short side platoon capacity. He initially seemed as if he’d have a shot at playing that role in Atlanta as a complement to the lefty-swinging Jarred Kelenic. The Braves took that off the table when they reunited with Adam Duvall on a $3MM free agent pact instead.

Atlanta released Luplow within hours of the Duvall signing to allow him to explore other opportunities. He gets that look with Atlanta’s biggest threat in the NL East. The Phils already have a fairly right-handed bench group. Cristian Pache profiles as the fourth outfielder, while Whit Merrifield is a versatile option who could contribute throughout the infield or corner outfield. Philadelphia’s projected starter in left field, Brandon Marsh, has been delayed in camp after undergoing a minor procedure on his left knee at the beginning of February.

While the Phils anticipate Marsh being ready for Opening Day, there’s little harm in adding an experienced outfielder to camp. Luplow had been hitting well this spring, putting up a .276/.364/.621 slash with a trio of homers in 12 games.

Latest On Brandon Marsh

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  • Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh has yet to appear in a game this spring while rehabbing from arthroscopic knee surgery he underwent in early February. While the initial timeline for his return to action was three-to-four weeks following the surgery, Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer indicates that Marsh is not quite ready to return to game action at this point. Coffey adds that club manager Rob Thomson recently indicated that Marsh is “on track” with regards to his rehab and could get into a Grapefruit League game by the end of the week. Marsh, 26, slashed a strong .277/.372/.458 in 133 games for the Phillies last year and figures to be a regular fixture in the club’s outfield mix this season alongside Nick Castellanos and Johan Rojas.

MLBTR Podcast: The Giants Sign Chapman, Zack Wheeler’s Extension, And Snell And Montgomery Remain

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Giants sign Matt Chapman (2:50)
  • Why do the Giants and other clubs keep giving players these opt-out deals? (6:45)
  • What is the logic with Chapman and Cody Bellinger settling for these short-term deals? (10:20)
  • What’s next for the Giants? Will they trade J.D. Davis? Go after Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery? (13:50)
  • Why didn’t the Yankees or Mariners go after Chapman? (17:00)
  • Phillies sign Zack Wheeler to extension (18:30)
  • Should players focus more on guarantees or average annual values? (20:15)
  • Did Shohei Ohtani not push things forward enough for players? (22:15)
  • Was Wheeler not concerned about maximizing his guarantee? (25:10)
  • What does the future look like for the Phillies? (26:35)
  • What’s up with Snell and Montgomery now? Could the Orioles swoop in? (29:35)
  • Does the Lucas Giolito news spur the Red Sox to jump on Snell or Montgomery? (31:20)
  • What about other dark horses for Snell or Montgomery? (34:15)
  • The case for the Brewers being a dark horse (35:55)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Is the late signing by the Boras clients a result of just how the market played out or the strategy of holding out? How does Boras spin this? (39:15)
  • Are we seeing the end of the Scott Boras era? Especially with players more to their mid-30s. I’m not sure how you could objectively look at how the offseason has gone for his clients and think it was a win for them. (44:45)

Check out our past episodes!

  • How Cody Bellinger’s Deal Affects The Other Free Agents And Why The Offseason Played Out Like This – listen here
  • Finding Fits For The “Boras Four,” Which Teams Could Still Spend? And Rob Manfred In His Last Term – listen here
  • Jorge Soler, Veteran Catcher Signings and the Padres’ Payroll Crunch – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Phillies Sign Zack Wheeler To Extension

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Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has been open with his desire to extend ace Zack Wheeler before he reaches free agency at the end of the 2024 season, and he got it done Monday, announcing that Wheeler has signed a three-year extension covering the 2025-27 seasons. The Wasserman client will reportedly be guaranteed $126MM on the contract, which does not include any options or opt-out opportunities.

As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, that $42MM annual rate is the largest on any contract extension in the sport’s history and the fourth-largest AAV on any contract ever, placing Wheeler only behind Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. Wheeler has now been added to MLBTR’s list of the game’s largest AAVs ever, as well.

That the contract begins in 2025 rather than overriding the final season of the right-hander’s current five-year, $118MM contract is notable for luxury tax purposes. Because the deal goes into place in 2025, Wheeler’s CBT hit will remain $23.6MM for the upcoming season before vaulting substantially in 2025. The Phillies were already into the second tier of luxury penalization, and a significant boost for Wheeler would’ve pushed them into the third tier, dropping their top pick in the draft by 10 spots.

Wheeler already has more than ten years of major league service time, and he’ll hit five years with the Phillies at the end of the 2024 season. That’ll give him 10-and-5 rights, granting Wheeler the power to veto any potential trade over the life of his new contract with the Phils.

It’s rare for any nine-figure deal in free agency to wind up being considered a bargain, but Wheeler has been worth every penny of his original $118MM contract — and then some. Currently 33 years old, Wheeler ranks fourth in Major League Baseball with 629 1/3 innings pitched dating back to 2020, the first season of the contract. His 3.06 ERA, 2.90 FIP and 3.42 SIERA rank 11th, fourth and 15th among 121 qualified big league pitchers in that time.

Since signing with the Phils, Wheeler has punched out 26.7% of his opponents against a sparkling 5.3% walk rate. Despite the homer-friendly nature of Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park, Wheeler has yielded an average of just 0.74 homers per nine frames — closely in line with his career mark of 0.83.

Wheeler’s 96 mph average fastball velocity in 2023 was down from its 97.3 mph peak (set in 2021), but he actually posted excellent swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates, sitting at 13.% and 36.6%, respectively. Those two marks were not only his best as a Phillie but the best single-season marks he’s posted in either category in his entire career to date. When opponents did manage to make contact against Wheeler, it was typically of the feeble variety. Hitters averaged a dismal 86.9 mph exit velocity against Wheeler this past season, placing the right-hander in the 88th percentile of big league pitchers.

Detractors can point to Wheeler’s 3.61 ERA in 2023 as a sign of decline, but as already laid out, Wheeler missed bats at career-best levels in 2023, maintained plus velocity and kept his walk rate among the league’s best. The primary skill change in Wheeler’s approach was a decline in grounders (41.2% — down from 49.6% in his first three years with Philly). That led to a few more home runs but correlated with the uptick in missed bats. Given that the Phillies annually trot out a poor defensive alignment behind their pitchers, the increase in missed bats is a better portent of long-term success than a reliance on keeping balls on the ground anyhow. Wheeler’s 71.3% strand rate — an outlier mark when looking at his year-to-year levels — figures to regress closer to the 74.3% mark he carried into the 2023 season. Assuming that indeed plays out, so long as Wheeler maintains something close to his current K-BB%, there’s a good chance his ERA will improve accordingly.

The dominance for Wheeler stretches far beyond his regular season work, however. He’s been an integral part of the Phillies’ deep playoff over the past two seasons — his first two tastes of postseason action to this point in his career. Wheeler has made 11 appearances (10 starts, one relief) and piled up 63 1/3 innings of 2.42 ERA ball with a 28.6% strikeout rate against a 4.2% walk rate while pitching in the postseason.

With Wheeler now entrenched in Philadelphia through the 2027 season and Aaron Nola also re-signed for another seven seasons, the Philadelphia rotation is set for the foreseeable future. That pair will continue to lead the way, with Ranger Suarez, Cristopher Sanchez and Taijuan Walker all controlled/signed for multiple additional seasons. Suarez is arbitration-eligible through the 2026 season, while Walker is signed through 2027 and Sanchez is controllable all the way through 2028. Strong as that group may be, the Phillies continue to be linked to a possible short-term deal with reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell — though signing Snell would catapult the team into the top tier of luxury penalization, which would push the team’s top draft choice back ten spots and likely mean more than $35MM in taxes on top of any salary.

Barring a one final, surprising splash on the free agent or trade market, the Phillies have other depth options in house. Former Tigers righty Spencer Turnbull and former Braves/Rangers southpaw Kolby Allard both signed big league deals over the winter. The Phils also have a stable of touted pitching prospects including Andrew Painter (currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery), Mick Abel and Griff McGarry all working their way toward MLB debuts, giving them some quality young options. Painter isn’t likely to pitch at all in 2024 while recovering from last summer’s surgery, but he was in the mix to be the team’s fifth starter last year in spring training despite being just 19 years old during camp. He’ll be firmly in the 2025 rotation mix, though the team will presumably have him on some form of innings limit.

The Wheeler extension will take the Phillies north of $200MM in payroll commitments for the 2025 season before the first pitch of the 2024 campaign is even thrown, and with him now signed through the 2027 season, the Phils have a quartet of nine-figure deals they’ll be paying out at least four years down the road (Wheeler, Nola, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper). From a CBT standpoint, the Wheeler deal all but ensures that the Phillies will again be luxury tax payors next season at the very least. RosterResource projects Philadelphia for a hefty $229MM of luxury obligations next season, and that doesn’t even include next offseason’s dealings or any of the team’s arbitration-eligible players.

Wheeler would have been one of the top arms available in a deep class of free agent pitchers next winter. The 2024-25 offseason will still feature Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler, Scherzer and Verlander — pending further extensions among the group. Gerrit Cole also has an opt-out in his contract next winter, though the Yankees can (and very likely will, barring any sort of major injury) override that opt-out by picking up a club option for a tenth season at $36MM.

Wheeler would’ve landed behind younger aces like Burnes and Fried in terms of overall earning power, but as this extension shows, his earning power on a strict AAV basis very well could have been the highest of the bunch. Instead, he’ll anchor a deep Phillies rotation that’ll take aim at a third consecutive NLCS appearance in 2024 and look to secure the World Series title they fell just short of back in 2022.

ESPN’s Buster Olney first reported that the two parties had agreed to a multi-year extension. Matt Gelb of The Athletic first reported the terms of the contract.

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