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Phillies Reportedly Interested In Brent Rooker

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The Phillies are “keeping a close eye on” A’s outfielder Brent Rooker ahead of the trade deadline, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski suggested last month that the club may look to add only modestly ahead of the trade deadline on July 30, and highlighted the bullpen as an area where the team could stand to improve. That’s not to say the Phillies won’t make any additions outside of relief help this summer, however. The club’s 58-31 record entering play today affords them the best winning percentage in baseball, leaving them well-positioned to push for the club’s first World Series championship since 2008 this October.

That doesn’t mean the club lacks holes, however, and outfield production is arguably one of the biggest. With Bryce Harper having moved to first base on a full-time basis and Kyle Schwarber now in an everyday DH role, the lefty sluggers that have worked the outfield corners for the Phillies in recent years have now vacated the outfield grass. Brandon Marsh has performed well when healthy, slashing .265/.346/.414 with a 116 wRC+ while splitting time between all three outfield spots, and veteran slugger Nick Castellanos has begun to heat up in recent weeks and figures to continue acting as the club’s everyday right fielder.

With that being said, each of Johan Rojas, Cristian Pache, and Whit Merrifield have all disappointed offensively this season. While Rojas and Pache both offer valuable defensive in center field and Merrifield’s versatility makes him a useful bench player, none have posted a wRC+ higher than 60 this year despite taking nearly 500 combined at-bats for the Phillies. That’s led the club to resort to using journeyman David Dahl as a left-handed complement to the trio of righties, but while he got off to a hot start in a Phillies uniform earlier this year he’s fallen back to Earth and now sports a meager .207/.242/.397 (75 wRC+) slash line in 19 games with Philadelphia.

It’s easy to see how Rooker would be a perfect fit for the club’s outfield mix. The 29-year-old first broke out with the A’s last year with a 127 wRC+ in 137 games, but he’s taken his offense to another level so far in the 2024 campaign. In 313 trips to the plate with the club this year, Rooker has slashed a fantastic .277/.351/.540 with a wRC+ of 153. While that production has come with a troublesome 32.9% strikeout rate, Rooker has made up for it with a strong 9.9% walk rate and the seventh-highest isolated slugging percentage in the majors.

While .371 BABIP this season is likely too high to be entirely sustainable, advanced metrics are generally buying in on his overall production as his .378 xwOBA is a near match for his .380 wOBA, suggesting that any regression in BABIP should be made up for by his eye-popping 16.4% barrel rate so long as he manages to keep his elite contact quality up going forward. That’s particularly important for Rooker given that the breakout journeyman entered the year with just over two years of service time under his belt. He’s making just over the league minimum this year and would come with three more seasons of team control after this one before becoming a free agent following the 2027 season.

That’s a timeline that lines up nicely with the current window in Philadelphia. Veteran ace Zack Wheeler just signed an extension that will also end following the 2027 season, and youngsters Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott are both also slated to hit free agency following that campaign. Meanwhile stars Bryce Harper, Aaron Nola, and Trea Turner will all be entering this mid-30’s at that point and complementary pieces of the current core like Schwarber, Castellanos, and J.T. Realmuto will have seen their contracts expire. That Rooker’s years of control line up so cleanly with Philadelphia’s current window of contention could make him all the more attractive to the Phillies.

With that being said, it’s worth pointing out that the club may have other prioritizes ahead of the trade deadline this year. As previously mentioned, Dombrowski has highlighted a desire to improve the club’s bullpen this summer in the past, and he also cautioned last month that the club wasn’t likely to pursue the sort of blockbuster trade where the club would have to “trade three top prospects” to acquire a player.

Relief help isn’t the only other need the club may look to address this summer, either. The club entered the summer with something of an embarrassment of riches in the rotation that forced Spencer Turnbull into a bullpen role despite a 1.67 ERA in six starts back in April, but since then both Taijuan Walker and Turnbull have hit the injured list, leaving the club to rely on rookie Michael Mercado to fill out the club’s rotation behind Wheeler, Nola, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez. With Turnbull not expected back until late August at the earliest and Walker lacking a specific timeline for return, it’s possible the Phillies could look to add a pitcher capable of helping the club either out of the rotation or bullpen depending on their needs at that moment.

Rooker also isn’t the only outfielder expected to be available at the deadline this year, with White Sox veteran Tommy Pham standing out as a rental option who would likely prove cheaper to acquire than Rooker if the Phillies are concerned with the prospect cost involved in acquiring the A’s outfielder. Kevin Pillar of the Angels, Mark Canha of the Tigers, and Jesse Winker of the Nationals are among the other rental veterans playing for teams who could consider selling this summer and would likely cost the Phillies less than a controllable asset like Rooker.

Phillies Select Tyler Phillips

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The Phillies announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Tyler Phillips. Fellow righty Yunior Marté was optioned in a corresponding move. To open a spot on the 40-man, righty Luis Ortiz was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Phillips, 26, has likely been selected to give the club some length out of the bullpen. He has made 15 starts in Triple-A this year, tossing 92 innings, allowing 4.89 earned runs per nine. His 19.8% strikeout rate is subpar but his 9.4% walk rate is fine and he’s been getting grounders at a strong 50.9% clip.

The Philly rotation took a couple of hits recently, with Taijuan Walker and Spencer Turnbull landing on the IL in fairly quick succession. They still have a strong front four consisting of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez, but the fifth spot is a bit shakier. Michael Mercado is in that spot for now but he has just six innings of major league experience to this point.

Nola and Suárez are scheduled to go the next two days with Mercado on Sunday. If there’s any need for someone to eat innings, that could perhaps be Phillips, since he’s been stretched out for a starting role in the minors.

If that comes to pass, Phillips will be making his major league debut, though he’s been on a 40-man roster before. He was originally drafted by the Rangers and that club added him to their 40-man roster back in November 2019, to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He had tossed 131 innings in the minors that year with a 3.71 ERA, getting heaps of ground balls.

The minors were canceled by the pandemic in 2020 and then Phillips struggled in 2021, going to the Phillies on a waiver claim. The Phils passed him through waivers shortly thereafter and the righty needed Tommy John surgery at the end of that season, missing all of 2022. Last year, he had a 4.92 ERA in 122 2/3 innings split between Double-A and Triple-A.

As for Ortiz, he started the year on the injured list due to a left ankle sprain. He started a rehab assignment but that was shut down and manager Rob Thomson said last week that the righty will be having Tommy John surgery on July 11, per Tim Kelly of Phillies Nation on X. He’ll miss the remainder of the season and a big portion of 2025 as well.

Michael Mercado Joining Phillies’ Rotation

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The Phillies have seen a pair of starters go down with injuries in the past week, as Taijuan Walker hit the injured list with a hand injury and Spencer Turnbull will be out up to eight weeks due to a lat strain. That’s left a vacancy at the back of Philly’s rotation, and it’ll be filled — at least in the short-term — by 25-year-old righty Michael Mercado, reports Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

A second-round pick by the Rays in 2017, Mercado’s journey to Philadelphia’s big league staff in some ways mirrors that of new rotation-mate Christopher Sanchez. Both were traded from the Rays to the Phillies in prospect-for-prospect swaps that drew minimal attention at the time of the deal. Sanchez’s trade became one of note, as he’s risen his profile while infielder Curtis Mead (who went back to the Rays) emerged as one of Tampa Bay’s top prospects. Mercado is newer to the Phillies organization, having been acquired last November in exchange for minor league lefty Adam Leverett.

Since landing with the Phillies, Mercado’s results have been excellent. He’s pitched in 14 games with Triple-A Lehigh Valley, 10 of them starts, and posted a sterling 1.71 ERA in 47 1/3 frames. His 22.8% strikeout rate, 11.9% walk rate and .240 average on balls in play all suggest that ERA could be in for some regression, but it’s been a big step forward over his 2023 performance even if the microscopic earned run average doesn’t look entirely sustainable.

Mercado split the ’23 season between Double-A and Triple-A in the Rays’ system and worked almost exclusively out of the bullpen, pitching to a combined 4.79 ERA. To his credit, he fanned a massive 35.4% of his opponents working in short relief where his stuff could play up, but he also walked more than 13% of his opponents and surrendered a dozen longballs in 62 innings (1.74 HR/9).

At the time he was drafted, Mercado required an over-slot commitment to forgo his college commitment to Stanford. Baseball America called him “one of the most polished and projectable high school pitchers” in the 2017 draft class, ranking him as that year’s No. 48 draft prospect. He jumped right into the Rays’ top 15 prospects the following season. He suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament not long after the draft, however, wiping out his entire 2019 season. Like all other minor leaguers, he also lost the 2020 season when the Covid-19 pandemic led MLB to cancel the minor league campaign entirely. Home runs and walks continued to outweigh Mercado’s strong strikeout numbers throughout the remaining three years of his Rays tenure.

Now, with the Phillies in need of rotation help, Mercado will get a short-term look at the very least. Turnbull is out until at least mid-August. Walker won’t be eligible to return until at least July 7 and has struggled to an ugly 5.60 ERA in 10 starts even when healthy this season. Top Phillies pitching prospect Andrew Painter has yet to pitch this season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The organization’s other top-ranked arm, former first-rounder Mick Abel, has an alarming 7.08 ERA and 15.5% walk rate in Triple-A this season. Depth options on the 40-man roster like Kolby Allard and Max Castillo have also pitched poorly in Triple-A.

All of that has paved the way for Mercado to get his first big league starting opportunity, more than seven years after he was selected with the No. 40 overall pick in the draft. The Phillies have one of the most enviable starting staffs in MLB with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez and the aforementioned Sanchez leading the way, which should take some pressure off Mercado. But depending on how long Walker is out and how he and Mercado perform in the short-term, the former Rays prospect could pitch his way into a more prominent role with the Phils. Mercado already made his MLB debut this week, tossing one scoreless inning after being called up as a reliever, but a larger opportunity is now there for the taking.

Phillies To Place Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber On Injured List

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The Phillies are taking two big hits today, announcing that both Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are going on the 10-day injured list. Harper has a left hamstring strain while Schwarber has a left groin strain. They have reinstated infielder Kody Clemens from the injured list and recalled outfielder Johan Rojas in corresponding moves.

Schwarber exited last night’s game with left groin tightness. Harper was clearly injured on the final play of the game, as he limped to first base after attempting to run out a ground ball. Matt Gelb of The Athletic reported the IL placements for Harper and Schwarber prior to the official announcement, adding that both injuries are fairly mild, as Harper has a low-grade hamstring strain and could be back by July 9, but the Phils might also let him stay on the IL through the July 15-18 All-Star break for some extra rest. Schwarber’s left groin strain is mild enough that he could be back after the 10-day minimum.

The fact that both issues are fairly mild is undoubtedly good news, but the two absences will still be a challenge for the Phils. Schwarber is having yet another excellent season at the plate in his typical fashion, blending power and patience. He has a 16.1% walk rate and 17 home runs, leading to a .250/.373/.447 batting line and 133 wRC+. Harper has 20 homers, a 14% walk rate, .303/.399/.582 batting line, 169 wRC+ and the defensive metrics like his work at first base.

The Phillies have the best record in baseball at 53-28 but losing two of the better hitters in the game, even for a short time, is obviously less than ideal. It also adds to a growing injury problem, as J.T. Realmuto, Taijuan Walker, Spencer Turnbull and others are already on the IL.

Given the club’s strong record and the fact that the injuries aren’t too serious, it’s not a catastrophe, but the club will have to improvise for a little bit. Clemens was in good form before landing on the IL, as he currently has a .256/.293/.615 line on the year. But that was in a small sample size of 41 plate appearances, with all but six of those coming with the lefty swinger facing right-handed pitching. Perhaps he and Alec Bohm could share first base, with the right swinging Edmundo Sosa covering third base when a left-hander is on the mound. Sosa performed well when Trea Turner was on the IL but has had less playing time since Turner returned.

Schwarber’s IL placement does come with one silver lining, which is that the club will have more ability to rotate players into the DH slot. That could perhaps allow them to put Nick Castellanos in there fairly regularly, as he’s generally not considered to be an especially strong defender. Rojas is a strong defender but was optioned not too long ago as he struggled offensively. If Castellanos is in the DH slot, Rojas would be part of an outfield group that also includes Brandon Marsh, David Dahl, Cristian Pache and Whit Merrifield.

Spencer Turnbull To Miss Six To Eight Weeks Due To Lat Strain

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The Phillies announced that right-hander Spencer Turnbull has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a right lat strain. Right-hander Yunior Marté was recalled to take his spot on the active roster. Manager Rob Thomson says Turnbull will miss six to eight weeks, per Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer on X.

Turnbull, 31, started yesterday’s game but departed after just three innings due to right shoulder soreness. He told reporters after the game that he didn’t think the issue was too serious and that he hoped to make his next start, with Matt Gelb of The Athletic among those to relay his thoughts on the matter. Despite Turnbull’s optimism, it seems the club has determined the issue is serious enough for him to be on the shelf for a fairly sizeable stretch of time.

For much of the year, Turnbull has been pitching very well out of the bullpen but has been blocked from securing a lengthy stay in the rotation. The Phils have Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez all putting up good numbers this year. The results have been more wobbly from Taijuan Walker but he is an established veteran on a four-year contract, which gave him precedence over Turnbull.

Just a few days ago, Walker landed on the IL due to inflammation in his right index finger, which opened a rotation spot for Turnbull. Unfortunately, in quick succession, Walker’s replacement is now out of action with Turnbull landing on the IL himself.

It’s a shame because, as mentioned, Turnbull’s results have been good overall this year. Over 17 games, including seven starts, he has a 2.65 earned run average. He wasn’t going to maintain a .233 batting average on balls in play or an 84% strand rate forever, but he struck out 26.1% of batters faced, limited walks to a 9% clip and got grounders on 47.5% of balls in play.

The righty had a tough season in 2023, dealing with injuries and posting a 7.26 ERA. He was non-tendered by the Tigers and signed a modest one-year deal with the Phils with a $2MM base salary. Continuing to put up good numbers would have helped him in his return to the open market this coming offseason but this injury will put a dent in that or at least put his bounceback season on pause.

For the Phillies, their crowded rotation has been quickly un-crowded with Walker and Turnbull landing on the IL within days of each other. That will leave them looking for a fifth starter at least until Walker comes back. He has a murky timeline as it depends how his finger progresses in the coming weeks.

Perhaps that rotation spot will go to Michael Mercado, who was starting in the minors up until recently. He was recalled when Walker landed on the IL and has made one relief appearance thus far, but could perhaps return to starting. In 47 1/3 Triple-A innings this year, he has a 1.71 ERA, though less impressive peripherals. He has a 22.8% strikeout rate, 11.9% walk rate and 41.3% ground ball rate. A .240 BABIP, 83% strand rate and 3.9 home run to fly ball ratio have helped keep the runs off the board.

The other depth options aren’t particularly exciting. Kolby Allard, Freddy Tarnok and Max Castillo are on the 40-man but each has an ERA of 6.14 or higher for the IronPigs this year. Prospect Mick Abel has a 7.08 ERA in Triple-A this year.

If the Phils want to add some rotation depth, there’s still a month to go until the trade deadline. They can monitor the progress of Walker and Turnbull between now and then as they assess the market, but they have lots of wiggle room. They have a 53-27 record that is the best in the majors, putting them eight games ahead of Atlanta in the National League East.

MLBTR Podcast: Injured Trade Candidates, The Cristopher Sánchez Extension And Blue Jays’ Woes

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • “What would it take for the Rockies to consider trading some young assets like Ryan McMahon or Brendan Rodgers?” (23:55)
  • “The Astros are clearly out of it, so why isn’t Ryan Pressly a top target of teams with bad bullpens?” (30:35)
  • “Would the Marlins or Nationals trade with the Mets, Phillies or Braves, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Lane Thomas being good fits?” (39:25)
  • “Will T.J. McFarland of the Athletics be traded to the Cubs or another contender?” (47:45)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Injury Notes: Luplow, Brown, Darvish

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Outfielder Jordan Luplow, who signed a minor league deal with the Phillies in March, is done for the year with a right knee ACL tear. The account @Kram207 was among those to relay the info on X.

Luplow has mostly been a small-side platoon guy in his career, as the right-handed hitter has a line of .227/.338/.495 against lefties over several seasons. This year, he had stepped to the plate 254 times at the Triple-A level with a line of .255/.343/.450. His splits were closer to even with the IronPigs, though in a small sample of 184 plate appearances against righties and 70 against lefties.

Perhaps there would have been a path to playing time in the Philadelphia outfield. Johan Rojas struggled enough to get optioned down to the minors. Brandon Marsh and David Dahl are lefties with notable platoon splits. The right-handed counterparts in their platoons are Whit Merrifield and Cristian Pache, who are both struggling.

With this season-ending injury for Luplow, that won’t be an option for the Phils to even consider anymore. Perhaps Edmundo Sosa will be a factor on the grass, since he has a bit of experience out there and played well while Trea Turner was on the IL. The Phils don’t have a lot of holes heading into the July 30 trade deadline but adding an intriguing righty bat to the bench could be one target, especially with Luplow no longer there as a depth option.

Some other notable injury updates from around baseball…

  • The Cubs placed right-hander Ben Brown on the injured list a couple of weeks ago with a neck strain, though subsequent reporting provided the more ominous-sounding diagnosis of a stress reaction in his neck. The timeline was and is murky, but Brown was able to throw from 90 feet recently, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. Brown says that he was told at the time of his diagnosis that he’s already through the worst of his ailment. Montemurro describes the prognosis as a “two- to three-month burnout period,” with the first month being the worst. Brown and Jordan Wicks hit the IL within a week of each other, thinning the Cubs rotation and forcing Kyle Hendricks back into a starting role. The club is 37-41 but that still has them two games out of a playoff spot in the weak NL race. The club will try to ramp Brown up from here as long as there are no symptoms and hopefully get him back into the mix as his body allows. He has a 3.58 ERA on the year through 55 1/3 innings.
  • The Padres are another club in that NL race with some rotation injuries but Yu Darvish will be back tomorrow, with AJ Cassavell of MLB.com relaying the word from manager Mike Shildt on X. Darvish had made 11 starts with a 3.20 ERA before landing on the IL with a left groin strain. He and Joe Musgrove landed on the shelf at the same time, forcing the club to use less experienced hurlers like Randy Vásquez and Adam Mazur. With Mazur posting an ERA of 7.10 in his first four starts and getting optioned recently, the return of Darvish should give the San Diego rotation a boost. The Friars are 41-41 and currently holding the final Wild Card spot in the National League, but there are seven clubs within three games of them.

Phillies Place Taijuan Walker On 15-Day Injured List

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The Phillies announced this morning that they’ve placed right-hander Taijuan Walker on the 15-day injured list due to inflammation in his right index finger. Right-hander Michael Mercado was recalled to the majors in a corresponding move. Mercado’s first appearance will be his big league debut.

Walker, 32 in August, has had a difficult 2024 season as he’s dealt with both injuries and ineffectiveness. A shoulder impingement delayed his season debut until the tail end of April, and he’s struggled considerably in ten starts since then. The righty sports a 5.60 ERA and 5.77 FIP overall on the season, figures that are 37% and 40% worse than the league average respectively. Just two of Walker’s ten appearances have been quality starts, and opponents have batted an eye-popping .278/.353/.511 against him in seven starts dating back to May 16. In other words, Walker’s opponents have teed off in recent weeks to achieve results roughly comparable to those Guardians star Jose Ramirez (.271/.330/.528) has posted this season.

Walker’s struggles came to a head Friday night against the Diamondbacks, when the righty allowed four runs on five hits and three walks across just four innings of work while striking out only three batters. Manager Rob Thomson told reporters (as noted by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker) yesterday that Walker was dealing with a “hot spot” on his finger and suggested that the issue has “been probably going on for a while.” Specifically, Thomson suggested that the injury may have impacted the efficacy of Walker’s splitter. The splitter was Walker’s most commonly used pitch last year, when he threw it 33.2% of the time according to Statcast. That usage has dropped to just 17.4% in 2024, and MLB.com notes that he’s thrown the pitch just sixteen times total over his past two starts.

That drop in usage has corresponded with a drop in efficacy. 2023 saw opposing hitters hit just .205 against Walker’s splitter, with a .295 slugging percentage and a .257 wOBA. Those strong results are a far cry for what the right-hander has produced with the pitch this year, as opponents have hit a whopping .426 with a .704 slugging percentage and a wOBA of .477. That .426 figure is the highest average allowed by Walker on any pitch this year, in sharp contrast to last year where his splitter boasted a lower average against than any pitch in his repertoire except for his rarely-used sweeper.

Given the fact that Walker’s finger issue has seemingly impacted his ability to throw his most important pitch, it’s hardly a surprise that the right-hander has suffered such extreme difficulties to this point in the season. Going forward, the Phillies will sit the righty down for at least the next two weeks in order to give the inflammation time to settle down. It’s surely a fairly easy decision for Philadelphia to not have Walker continue to try and play through the issue given the presence of right-hander Spencer Turnbull. Turnbull has been excellent for the club this year while swinging between the rotation and the bullpen, with a 2.63 ERA and 3.57 FIP in 51 1/3 innings across 16 appearances (six starts).

While Turnbull has not started a game since late April, the righty threw 49 pitches in his most recent outing on Friday and figures to be able to step into the rotation and offer the Phillies solid production in Walker’s stead. That leaves the long relief role out of the bullpen to Mercado, who is set to replace Walker on the club’s roster. Mercado was the Rays’ second-round pick in the 2017 draft but did not make an appearance at the big league level with the club before being traded to the Phillies back in November. Philadelphia swiftly placed Mercado on their 40-man roster and sent him to Triple-A to open the season, where he’s excelled with a 1.71 ERA and a 22.8% strikeout rate in 47 1/3 innings of work split between the rotation and bullpen at the level.

Dave Dombrowski Discusses Cristopher Sanchez Extension, Ranger Suarez’s Future

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When the Phillies announced a four-year extension with young left-hander Cristopher Sanchez yesterday, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski revealed to reporters (including Matt Gelb of The Athletic) that the deal isn’t one they would have considered making if Sanchez and his agent, Gene Mato, hadn’t approached him about the possibility of a long-term deal. Even at that point, Dombrowski noted that he had some reservations about negotiating in-season.

“As much as we’d love to have him, during the middle of the season, it’s not normally something that I would like to get into,” Dombrowski said, as relayed by Gelb. “Because it can be a distraction for the player.”

Fortunately, the extension talks didn’t take very long as Gelb notes that it took just one week of negotiations before the sides settled on the four-year, $22.5MM guarantee with two club options that could extend the club’s window of control over Sanchez through the end of the 2030 campaign. The smooth negotiations between Dombrowski and Sanchez’s camp appear to have been crucial in pushing the deal across the finish line given the Phillies’ stated concerns that a protracted negotiation process could become a distraction from the season at hand.

That apparent trepidation with regards to in-season extensions could serve as a clue for how the Phillies will approach left-hander Ranger Suarez, who Gelb notes the Phillies have interest in extending. Suarez is currently slated to hit free agency following the 2025 season, but Gelb notes that talks have yet to progress between the sides and appear likely to wait until after the 2024 campaign has concluded. For his part, Dombrowski noted that the club “love[s]” Suarez and that they “hope that he’s part of the organization for a long time,” but also declined to discuss the state of negotiations with the lefty.

If the Phillies want to extend Suarez, it’s sure to come with a much heftier price tag than the Sanchez extension. Sanchez’s deal is more or less in line with the low end of what pitchers in his service time bracket have received in extensions, just ahead of the $18.8MM guarantee the Red Sox gave to right-hander Garrett Whitlock but a far cry from the $50M+ guarantees afforded to Boston’s Brayan Bello and Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene. Suarez, who will be just one year from free agency this offseason, is in a completely different realm of contract expectations.

The two hurlers to sign extensions with just one year to go before free agency in recent memory are Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo and Blue Jays right-hander Jose Berrios, both of whom did so shortly after being dealt to new teams the previous summer. Castillo signed a $108MM guarantee over five years with Seattle, while Berrios signed in Toronto on a seven-year deal that guaranteed him $131MM. Both hurlers had a much longer track record of success in the starting rotation at the time of their extensions than Suarez, who didn’t become a full-time starting pitcher until the 2022 season.

On the other hand, however, Suarez has undeniably been more dominant than either hurler in the years leading up to the start of extension negotiations. The lefty has pitched to a 2.91 ERA (142 ERA+) with a 3.39 FIP in 478 2/3 innings of work since the start of the 2021 season. That eclipses the work of both Berrios (118 ERA+, 3.78 FIP) and Castillo (132 ERA+, 3.43 FIP) on a rate basis in their final four years before signing, though both Castillo and Berrios had 120+ additional innings of work over that same timeframe. Much of Suarez’s ultimate price tag will surely depend on how he finishes the 2024 campaign; the lefty currently leads all of MLB with an incredible 1.75 ERA through 15 starts this year and figures to find himself in the thick of the Cy Young conversation at year’s end if he can keep anything close to this production up over a full year.

Phillies Extend Cristopher Sanchez

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3:25PM: According to The Athletic’s Matt Gelb, the extension will guarantee Sanchez $22.5MM in total. The club option year for 2029 is valued at $14MM, while the 2030 club option is worth $15MM. Gelb adds that the price of both options will rise if Sanchez manages to finish in the top 10 of NL Cy Young award voting.

10:33AM: The Phillies have officially announced the extension, with no financial terms released.  Sanchez’s deal covers the 2025-28 seasons, and Philadelphia has club options on his services for both 2029 and 2030.

9:10AM: The Phillies and left-hander Cristopher Sanchez are in the final stages of completing a four-year contract extension, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports (X link).  Sanchez is already under team control through the 2028 season, so the deal will give the Phils some cost certainty over those upcoming four years and beyond.  Heyman indicates there are multiple club option years, so the Phillies can now control at least two of Sanchez’s free agent seasons.  The 27-year-old Sanchez is represented by agent Gene Mato.

The signing continues Philadelphia’s penchant for locking up arms, as all of the extensions signed during Dave Dombrowski’s tenure as president of baseball operations have come on the pitching end.  These deals range from shorter-term deals to avoid arbitration to the much pricier three-year, $126MM extension Zack Wheeler signed last March, and Sanchez’s deal should fall somewhere in between.

Considering Sanchez’s relatively advanced age (he turns 28 in December) and the fact that he isn’t even eligible for arbitration until the 2025-26 offseason, an extension is an aggressive move on the part of Dombrowski’s front office.  While the southpaw was lining himself up well for some nice salaries in his arb years, having a relatively inexpensive arm in the rotation could have helped balance out the much larger luxury tax hits of pricier players like Wheeler, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Aaron Nola, all of whom are signed through at least the 2027 season.  Nick Castellanos and Taijuan Walker also on the books through 2026, J.T. Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber through 2025, and the likes of Ranger Suarez, Alec Bohm, and Bryson Stott have also played well enough to merit consideration for long-term commitments.

The Phillies surpassed the luxury tax threshold in each of the last two seasons and are set to do again in 2024, as the team has shown it is more than willing to spend big in pursuit of a championship.  Against this backdrop, it isn’t surprising that the Phils are again opening the checkbook to retain a player they like, and who they feel might end up being something of a bargain over the course of the extension, considering how Sanchez has emerged as a starter in 2023-24.

An international signing for the Rays out of the Dominican Republic in 2013, Sanchez was dealt to Philadelphia in November 2019 in a one-for-one trade for Curtis Mead.  An under-the-radar move at the time, it has become a pretty intriguing deal in hindsight given how Sanchez has developed as a capable MLB starter, and how Mead went on to become a top-100 prospect in Tampa’s farm system (and a big leaguer himself, albeit in only 50 games to date).

Sanchez showed some flashes of his future ability as a starter and a reliever during his time in the Rays’ farm system, and the Phillies used him mostly as a starter during his time in the minors.  He made his MLB debut in 2021 and still worked as a reliever in all but four of his big league outings (52 2/3 innings over 23 appearances) in 2021-22, but some injuries opened the door for Sanchez to eventually step into the Philadelphia rotation himself last season.  The result was a 3.44 ERA over 99 1/3 innings, supported by a 24.2% strikeout rate, a four percent walk rate, and a 57% grounder rate.

That success has largely carried over to this season, as Sanchez has a 2.91 ERA, 20.3% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate, and a 59.4% grounder rate.  While the walk rate is no longer elite and Sanchez’s K% is now below average, he is still generating tons of grounders, and could even be considered somewhat unlucky since he has a .342 BABIP.  Sanchez is doing a solid job of limiting hard contract and in particular of keeping the ball in the park — after allowing 16 homers in his 99 1/3 innings in 2023, Sanchez has given up just one home run in 77 1/3 frames this year.  While not a particularly hard thrower in relation to the rest of the league, Sanchez has added quite a bit of velocity, now averaging 94.3mph on his fastball after averaging 92.1mph last year.

This grounder-heavy and relatively low-strikeout skillset could lend itself to some variance if the ground balls start finding holes in the infield, or if Sanchez’s newfound success at limiting homers doesn’t continue.  That said, the Phillies are obviously confident enough in Sanchez as a viable rotation member that they have now firmed up their commitment to him for much of the decade.

From Sanchez’s perspective, he’ll now land the first big payday of his professional career.  Since he wouldn’t have entered free agency until after his age-31 season, Sanchez will gain some life-changing financial ability now, rather than run the risk that an injury or a dip in form might’ve scuttled his future chances at a big multi-year contract.

Looking at the bigger picture of the Phillies’ pitching situation, extending Sanchez creates some new questions about whether or not retaining Suarez is also in the team’s plans.  Suarez is eligible for arbitration one more time before hitting the open market after the 2025 campaign, and the left-hander’s breakout as a Cy Young Award candidate this season will surely elevate his asking price.  With so much money already committed to the rotation in particular, retaining Sanchez could be the Phillies’ way of creating a hedge if Suarez does depart in free agency, though it wouldn’t be surprising if the Phils again break the bank to keep Suarez on yet another noteworthy extension.

With so much of their rotation now locked up, the Phillies have limited room on paper for top pitching prospects Andrew Painter and Mick Abel.  This could make Philadelphia more open to moving young pitching for more immediate help at this year’s trade deadline, though it should be noted that Abel hasn’t performed well at Triple-A this season and Painter won’t pitch until 2025 due to Tommy John surgery.  Until the Phils have more clarity on their top young arms in particular, Dombrowski would certainly be wary of dealing from the starting ranks.  Spencer Turnbull has excelled when used as a starter this season as well, though he is only signed through this season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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