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Skip Schumaker Will Not Return As Marlins’ Manager

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TODAY: The Marlins officially announced Schumaker’s departure.

SEPT. 28: Skip Schumaker will not return as Miami’s manager in 2025, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. His tenure with the Fish concludes after two seasons.

The Marlins announced during Friday night’s win over the Blue Jays that Schumaker would return home to attend to a family health matter. Bench coach Luis Urueta will be the interim manager for the final two games of the season, tweets Isaac Azout of Fish on First. Passan writes that Schumaker informed Miami players that he would not be back next season after tonight’s game.

That couldn’t have come as much of a surprise to anyone on the roster. Schumaker has seemingly been on his way out of South Florida for months. Former general manager Kim Ng hired Schumaker — who’d been the bench coach in St. Louis — to replace Don Mattingly going into the 2023 season. He’d initially signed a two-year deal with a club option for 2025. Once the Marlins and Ng parted ways last offseason, Schumaker reportedly expressed frustration with the organization’s direction. The Marlins agreed to void the ’25 option as a result, giving the 44-year-old the chance to pursue other opportunities after this season.

The front office overhaul came within weeks of Miami surprisingly punching their ticket to the postseason. The Fish overcame a negative run differential to win 84 games and snag a Wild Card spot in 2023. While they were swept by Philadelphia in the first round, the unexpected postseason berth earned Schumaker the NL’s Manager of the Year award in his debut season. It was the team’s first playoff appearance in a 162-game schedule since their 2003 World Series title.

Owner Bruce Sherman was nevertheless dissatisfied with the organization’s recent misses in the draft and some ill-fated free agent moves (e.g. Avisaíl García, Jean Segura). Sherman tabbed former Rays GM Peter Bendix as president of baseball operations — a move that would’ve relegated Ng to second in the front office hierarchy. After Sherman informed Ng of his plans to hire a baseball ops president, she declined her end of a mutual option and moved on.

Bendix never seemed confident that the Marlins could replicate last year’s success. The Fish had a quiet winter — their only MLB free agent signing was a $5MM rebound flier on Tim Anderson — and seemed ticketed for another rebuild. A disastrous 0-9 start sealed their fate within the first two weeks. Miami traded Luis Arraez in early May and followed up with a major deadline sell-off involving most of their relievers, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trevor Rogers, Josh Bell and Bryan De La Cruz. Were it not for a devastating series of rotation injuries, they’d likely have torn things down further. Jesús Luzardo and Braxton Garrett would have been clear trade candidates if healthy.

Bendix’s skepticism about the short-term outlook has been borne out in this year’s results. The Fish lost 100 games for the fourth time in franchise history. They’ll either finish with the second- or third-worst record in MLB. (They’re one game behind the Rockies at the bottom of the National League.) At the same time, it’s entirely unsurprising that Schumaker preferred not to embark on a multi-year rebuild orchestrated by a new front office just months after leading the team to the playoffs.

There should be plenty of interest in Schumaker’s services. His aggregate 144-178 record wasn’t great, but that’s far more a testament to this year’s roster than an indictment of his managerial ability. His work in 2023 earned ample praise. The White Sox and Reds have managerial vacancies after firing Pedro Grifol and David Bell, respectively. Schumaker has been loosely linked to both jobs before his contract with the Marlins has expired.

Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times wrote a few weeks ago that he was among the Sox’s top targets. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported on Friday that Schumaker and former Cubs’ skipper David Ross are among the preliminary options under consideration for the Reds’ front office. It’s possible other jobs will open once the regular season concludes.

In Miami, Bendix begins his first managerial search as a baseball operations leader. The front office has presumably been preparing for a while, as they were no doubt aware of the probability that Schumaker would depart. It’s the next opportunity for Bendix and his group to put their stamp on the franchise as they go into another rebuilding year.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Notes: Yoshida, O’Neill, Castiglione

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Masataka Yoshida is set to undergo an MRI on his right shoulder, manager Alex Cora told reporters (including MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo) after today’s game.  Earlier today, Carlos Yamazaki of Tokyo Sports reported (via X) that Yoshida was considering having surgery, as Yoshida said he has been bothered by shoulder soreness for much of the season.

The 31-year-old Yoshida didn’t play in Boston’s season-ending 3-1 win over the Rays today, thus ending his second MLB season with a .280/.349/.415 slash line and 10 home runs over 421 plate appearances.  That translates to a 115 wRC+ in 2024, and after he had relatively similar numbers in 580 PA in 2023, Yoshida now has a 112 wRC+ over his 248 games and 1001 trips to the plate as a big leaguer.

Between these solid numbers and the fact that he is one of the league’s toughest players to strike out, Yoshida’s first two Major League seasons have been quite respectable overall.  However, more than “respectable” was expected when the Sox signed him to a five-year, $90MM deal during the 2022-23 offseason.  Seen as an overpay of a contract from former Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, Yoshida seemed to answer his critics with some very strong numbers in 2023 before fading down the stretch.

His 2024 was limited in another sense, as Yoshida was almost exclusively a designated hitter.  While Cora reiterated today that Yoshida’s usage was more due to Boston’s outfield surplus than due to concerns about Yoshida’s defense, the fact remains that Yoshida played in just one game as an outfielder this season.  The left-handed hitting Yoshida was also largely used only against right-handed pitching, further limiting his playing time.

More will be known about Yoshida’s shoulder once the MRI is complete, but if surgery is necessary, that further complicates his status heading into 2025.  With three years and $54MM remaining on his contract, Yoshida is a tough player to move in any trade talks, and his trade value will dip further if any health uncertainty is attached.  Some room in Boston’s outfield could open up if Tyler O’Neill departs in free agency, but two star Red Sox outfield prospects (Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell) are expected to be part of the big league roster at some point in 2025, further crowding the picture.

There’s also a chance O’Neill is re-signed, as he told WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford and other reporters that he spoke with chief baseball officer Craig Breslow today, and the two both expressed “mutual interest” in a reunion.  Breslow also spoke publicly earlier this week about the club’s keenness in possibly bringing the Canadian slugger back for 2025 and beyond.

Injuries have continued to plague O’Neill, as he was limited to 113 games and 473 PA this season due to three relatively brief stints on the 10-day IL.  The good news is that when O’Neill was able to play, he delivered to the tune of 31 homers and a .241/.336/.511 slash line, and a 131 wRC+.  O’Neill had an elite barrel rate and excellent walk and hard-hit ball rates, even if he also posted one of the baseball’s worst strikeout rates (33.6%).  The right-handed hitting O’Neill also had some drastic splits, as he had only a .693 OPS in 317 PA against righty pitching but a whopping 1.180 OPS in 156 PA against southpaws.

The splits are perhaps less of an issue for the Red Sox than other teams, as having a powerful right-handed bat is particularly helpful on a Sox roster that is overloaded with lefty swingers.  That said, Boston’s future outfield prospects perhaps cloud the chances of O’Neill’s return, and his injury history does add an extra element of risk for the Sox or any team that signs him to a multi-year contract.  It’s not out of the question that O’Neill could accept a one-year qualifying offer to take a $21MM-ish payday and stay in Boston in 2025, but there seems to be a greater chance that O’Neill would reject a QO and seek a heftier contract on the heels of his strong season.

Finally, today’s game marked the final broadcast for longtime radio broadcaster Joe Castiglione, who is retiring from regular announcing duty after 42 years of calling Red Sox games.  He was recognized by the Hall of Fame as this year’s winner of the Ford Frick Award, and several Sox legends took part in a pregame ceremony today honoring Castiglione’s tenure as the voice of Red Sox Nation.  We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Castiglione on his incredible career.

Twins To Retain Derek Falvey, Rocco Baldelli For 2025

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Both chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli will be returning to the Twins next season, as team executive chairman Joe Pohlad and Falvey himself told reporters (including the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale and The Athletic’s Dan Hayes).  Today’s official announcements confirm yesterday’s report from The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman that both Falvey and Baldelli would be back for their respective ninth and seventh seasons with the organization.

Baldelli’s current contract runs through at least the 2025 season, while Falvey’s contractual status isn’t publicly known.  Falvey’s previous deal was known to be up at the end of the 2024 campaign, yet the Twins have tended to be somewhat secretive when it comes to contracts for team personnel.  It seems entirely possible that Falvey was inked to an extension at some point over the course of his previous couple of years, or his contract might indeed currently be up, but an extension is expected to be finalized shortly.

Of course, contracts might not have mattered much if ownership felt compelled to make changes following the Twins’ late-season collapse.  Minnesota had a 70-53 record on August 17 and looked to be safe bets to make the postseason, either as AL Central champs for the second consecutive season or at least as a wild card.  Instead, the Twins have gone 12-26 over their last 38 games, and two division rivals (the Tigers and Royals) zoomed past them en route to the playoffs.

As “embarrassing” as Pohlad felt this collapse was, he still has faith in Falvey to lead the front office.  “I don’t judge employees off of six crummy weeks.  He’s got eight years of a résumé and I talk with Derek daily so I know what he’s doing, ” Pohlad said.  “He’s got player development resume, he’s got a major league resume and yeah, he’s busting his [butt]. He’s the right guy.”

Falvey made a similar defense of Baldelli, saying “we’ve been gutted during this process trying to figure out how we fix it. That’s led to sleepless nights and challenging conversations and one-on-one conversations between he and I that will stay one-on-one, but have been at times really digging deep and trying to figure out how to fix it.  I believe in his process, I believe in him, I believe in the partnership I have with him.  That is how I feel and ultimately, that’s the way we’re going to go forward.”

The 2024 season is the latest twist in the overall successful, yet inconsistent tenures of both the CBO and the manager.  The duo have combined for three AL Central titles and four winning records in Baldelli’s time as manager, plus Minnesota also won 85 games and earned a wild card in 2017, Falvey’s first season with the organization.  Still, the Twins followed up that 2017 campaign with a losing season in 2018 that got previous manager Paul Molitor replaced in favor of Baldelli, and the Twins stumbled to sub-.500 records in both 2021 and 2022 on the heels of consecutive division crowns in 2019-20.

A return to the playoffs last year and (most importantly) the Twins’ first postseason series win since 2002 seemed to restore order to the franchise, but that playoff success was then undermined by a controversial offseason.  Ownership’s decision to cut payroll by roughly $30MM left Falvey and GM Thad Levine somewhat hamstrung in their roster maneuvering last winter, leaving it easy to second-guess plenty of decisions or non-decisions that could’ve made the difference between a playoff berth or the Twins’ current situation.

On the other hand, playing even .500 ball since August 17 would’ve sent Minnesota cruising into the postseason, and the payroll decisions wouldn’t loom nearly as large.  According to The Athletic’s Dan Hayes (X link), the Twins aren’t planning any more payroll reductions this winter, so it would appear as if the front office will be working with at least the roughly $129MM that the club is currently spending on players.

While Falvey and Baldelli appear safe, neither Pohlad or Falvey mentioned Levine’s status heading into 2025.  Levine has been serving as Falvey’s chief lieutenant since the pair were hired in November 2016, and like Falvey, his contract is also thought to be up once the 2024 season is over.  Again, Levine might well have quietly signed an extension at some point, or the Twins might be looking to bring a new voice into the front office if they feel some kind of change is necessary.

Tigers Place Shelby Miller On Release Waivers

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The Tigers announced this afternoon that right-hander Shelby Miller has cleared outright waivers and been placed on unconditional release waivers. Assuming Miller clears release waivers, he’ll become a free agent.

Miller, 34 next month, was the 19th-overall pick in the 2009 draft by the Cardinals and appeared to be a budding star during the early 2010s as he posted a 3.22 ERA in 575 1/3 innings of work from his debut in 2012 through the end of the 2015 season, when he made it to the All-Star game with the Braves. The wheels came off for Miller after that, however, and he struggled badly with both injuries and ineffectiveness over the next several years. From 2016 to 2022, Miller saw little success at the big league level with a ghastly 7.02 ERA in 202 2/3 combined innings of work across six seasons. His 5.21 FIP in that time indicated he made have been the victim of some poor luck, but even that figure was well below the league average mark for a pitcher.

Fortunately for Miller, he managed to turn his fortunes around after signing a minor league deal with the Dodgers ahead of his age-32 season last year. Now a full-time reliever, Miller pitched 42 innings for L.A. last season and dominated to the tune of an excellent 1.71 ERA that was backed up by a solid 3.68 FIP and a 25.8% strikeout rate. Miller’s impressive turnaround earned him a big league deal with the Tigers last offseason that guaranteed him $3MM.

It’s a contract that did not turn out especially well for Detroit, as a handful of blow-up outings marred an otherwise solid season for the right-hander. While 37 of his 51 appearances with the Tigers this year were scoreless, he had five outings where he surrendered three or more runs while recording three outs or less, including a disastrous outing last month where he surrendered four runs on four consecutive hits without recording an out. Turning back to his overall season in 2024, his 4.53 ERA and 4.48 FIP are both worse than league average, and his 21.8% strikeout rate represents a significant step back from last year’s level. Miller also struggled with the long ball this year relative to his time in L.A. as 12.3% of his fly balls have left the yard, nearly double last year’s rate.

Still, with free agency on the horizon for Miller once again it seems possible he could garner interest as a middle relief option this winter. Even considering his down year with the Tigers this year, the right-hander has pitched to a 3.32 ERA with a 4.14 FIP in 97 2/3 innings since rebounding with the Dodgers last winter with a combined 23.5% strikeout rate and an 8.2% walk rate. That gives Miller a fairly solid track record if his last two seasons are looked at in tandem, and it’s not hard to imagine a club believing his true talent level falls somewhere between last year’s dominant performance and his slightly below average results in 2024.

Latest On Anthony Rizzo

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TODAY: The Yankees didn’t place Rizzo on the injured list, instead optioning Scott Effross to Triple-A to call up Rice.  Boone described Rizzo’s chances of playing in the ALDS as a “long shot,” in speaking with Hoch and other reporters today.

SEPT 28: Manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch) following today’s loss to the Pirates that first baseman Anthony Rizzo sustained two fractured fingers when he was struck by a pitch from Pittsburgh lefty Ryan Borucki. Hoch later added that, per Boone, the first baseman had actually fractured both his fourth and fifth fingers on his right hand. Rizzo exited the game following the incident, and it’s not yet clear when he’ll be able to return to the diamond. As noted by Hoch, Boone did not rule Rizzo out for the club’s upcoming postseason push.

“We’ll see what we have as the week moves forward,” Boone said. “It doesn’t totally rule him out. It’s a pain tolerance thing.”

It’s the latest injury-related setback for Rizzo in what has become a series of frustrating injuries during his tenure with the Yankees. After an eight-season stretch in Chicago where Rizzo was rarely injured, appearing in 94% of the Cubs’ regular season games from 2013 to his trade to the Bronx in 2021, the veteran first baseman has been far less available throughout his tenure with the Yankees. While he managed 130 games in his first full season with the club in 2022, his past two years have been marred with post-concussion syndrome and a fractured forearm that both set him down for multiple months, leaving him to appear in less than 60% of the club’s contests over the past two years.

Those injury issues have coincided with a downturn in performance for the 35-year-old, who this year is slashing just .227/.298/.334 through 91 games. It’s his worst showing in a season since the 49-game cup of coffee with San Diego that kicked off his lengthy big league career, and a far cry from the production the Yankees were surely hoping to get from him when they signed him to a two-year deal that guaranteed him $40MM prior to the 2023 season. With that being said, even losing a diminished version of Rizzo is still a blow to the Yankees’ lineup headed into the postseason.

After all, the club got lackluster production from a combination of Ben Rice and DJ LeMahieu at first base in Rizzo’s absence; only the Rockies posted a lower wRC+ at first base than the 76 the Yankees put up in Rizzo’s absence, and the club’s -1.1 fWAR at the position put them ahead of only the Astros among all AL clubs. It should also be noted that while Rizzo has hardly been the middle-of-the-lineup force he was earlier in his career since returning to the lineup on September 1, he has hit better overall with a .247/.345/.315 slash line in 84 plate appearances. That’s good for a wRC+ more than 15 points higher than the figures put up by Rice and LeMahieu’s combined efforts in his absence.

If Rizzo is healthy enough to take the field for the Yankees when the ALDS begins on October 5, it seems likely that he’ll be the best option the club has available at first base. Failing that, however, Hoch notes that Boone did confirm that Rice would be an option for the club’s postseason roster. A 25-year-old rookie, Rice is a bat-first catcher that has begun to move over to first base in recent years in part to accommodate the rapid advance of his offense. The youngster has slashed a sensational .294/.428/.661 in 30 games at the Triple-A level this year after posting similarly excellent numbers in 97 career games at the Double-A level, but he’s hit just .174/.269/.356 in a 49-game cup of coffee over the summer.

That figure includes a somewhat stronger .184/.265/.395 slash line in 132 trips to the plate against righties at the major league level. That could make him an excellent choice for a lefty-mashing platoon partner, but with LeMahieu on the IL amid a career-worst season that saw him hit just .164/.235/.206 against southpaws there aren’t many good options for that role. One possibility would be utility man Jon Berti, who sports a decent .250/.328/.384 career slash line against lefty pitching, but it would be a bold choice for the club to put Berti at first base with zero experience at the position in the middle of the playoffs, even considering his exceptional positional versatility. Switch-hitter Oswaldo Cabrera has some experience at first base and even replaced Rizzo there following his exit today, but he’s hit just .206/.251/.306 against southpaws to this point in his career.

Vinnie Pasquantino Ahead Of Schedule, Could Return For Wild Card Series

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Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino saw his regular season come to an end a month ago when he suffered a broken right thumb. It was a devastating blow to Kansas City’s offense, and the initial timeline provided at the time left him set to miss the next six-to-eight weeks, not only ending his regular season but likely keeping him out for most if not all of the postseason. Flash forward to today, however, and things are looking far more optimistic. As noted by Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star, Pasquantino is under consideration to be activated from the injured list to join the club’s roster for the AL Wild Card series, which begins on Tuesday.

The move would be something of a shock just four weeks after his injury, but Thompson notes that the 26-year-old has resumed taking batting practice and even faced live pitching yesterday. In an interview during the team’s broadcast of last night’s game, GM J.J. Picollo noted that Pasquantino “felt good” after the session but that the club will need to evaluate him today before deciding whether to activate him or have him continue rehabbing in hopes of impacting the club deeper into the playoffs, should they make it that far. Per MLB.com’s Anne Rogers, the club plans for Pasquantino to face live pitching again tomorrow before they make a decision on whether or not to activate him for Tuesday’s Wild Card Series.

If Pasquantino is truly healthy enough to return early, it would be a major boost to Kansas City’s offense. In 131 games with the Royals this year, the 26 year old has hit a respectable .262/.315/.446 with 19 homers in 554 trips to the plate and a 108 wRC+. That makes him just one of four Royals hitters with a better than league average wRC+ alongside second baseman Michael Massey, veteran backstop Salvador Perez, and MVP candidate Bobby Witt Jr. For a Royals club that has primarily made it to the postseason off the back of an excellent starting rotation (as well as the offensive heroics of Witt), adding another reliable bat to the lineup could be a game changer for the Royals as they head into their first postseason series since winning the 2015 World Series nearly a decade ago.

While the first baseman could return to action for the series, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be playing first base. Thompson notes that the club activated Massey back in June before he was ready to return defensively, instead using him exclusively as a DH and pinch hitter for two weeks before eventually being eased back into defensive duties at the keystone. Should the Royals follow a similar path with Pasquantino, it’s possible he wouldn’t retake his role at first base until late in the playoffs, if at all.

That would leave Yuli Gurriel, who has slashed .260/.361/.320 (96 wRC+) across 17 games with the Royals this year, in place as the club’s first baseman, while Pasquantino is installed as the club’s everyday DH during the postseason. In recent weeks, the Royals haven’t had a set DH and have instead used that spot in the lineup to rest players but Pasquantino’s return would seem likely to cost Freddy Fermin playing time by causing the club to start Perez behind the plate more frequently. That said, it’s also possible that Perez could be used as the club’s regular first baseman, leaving Fermin behind the plate and pushing Gurriel to the bench.

Astros Select Ryan Gusto

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The Astros announced this morning that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Ryan Gusto. Gusto will make his big league debut in today’s regular season finale, starting this afternoon’s game against the Guardians. To make room for Gusto on the 40-man and active rosters, outfielder Ben Gamel was transferred to the 60-day IL while right-hander Shawn Dubin was optioned to the minor leagues.

Gusto, 25, was Houston’s 11th-round pick in the 2019 draft. He’s enjoyed something of a breakout over the past two seasons, as he impressed in 61 1/3 innings of work at the Double-A level last year with a 2.93 ERA and a 24.9% strikeout rate in his first taste of action at the level. That earned him a promotion to the Triple-A level to start the 2024 season, and while he struggled badly in his first taste of Pacific Coast League action this year (8.03 ERA in his first two months) he’s turned things around a big way since then. In 108 innings of work since the start of June, Gusto has dominated opponents with a 2.08 ERA and 23.2% strikeout rate while walking just 6.4% of opponents.

Now, Gusto will get the opportunity to show off what he can do against big league hitters. With both Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi ticketed for free agency this winter, it’s easy to imagine Gusto working his way into consideration for the club’s rotation mix next year as one of the club’s few upper-level arms who have not yet been integrated into the big league rotation. The club figures to have Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, and Spencer Arrighetti as rotation options headed into next year with plenty of other players due back from the IL sometime next season but Gusto could be an important depth piece for the club come Spring Training, particularly if the club doesn’t make additions to the rotation over the winter.

As for Gamel, the move to place the 32-year-old on the 60-day IL is largely procedural. The outfielder was already on the shelf due to a fractured fibula and considered likely to miss the entire postseason, though today’s roster move confirms that he won’t play again this year. Gamel hit a decent .247/.384/.333 with the Mets and Astros this year and figures to enter free agency this winter as an interesting bench option for clubs in need of outfield depth.

Orioles Designate Tucker Davidson For Assignment

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The Orioles announced this afternoon that they’ve designated left-hander Tucker Davidson for assignment. Right-hander Colin Selby was recalled to the big league roster in Davidson’s place, and the club’s 40-man roster now stands at 39.

Davidson, 28, came to the Orioles last year when the club claimed him off waivers from the Royals. He was promptly outrighted off the 40-man roster later in the offseason and remained with the club in the minor leagues throughout 2024, putting up a decent 3.89 ERA in 115 2/3 innings of work during that time while swinging between Norfolk’s rotation and bullpen.

Those results are generally much better than the ones he’s garnered in the majors throughout his career. The lefty surrendered a 5.11 ERA in 37 innings of work for the Braves from his debut in 2020 until his departure at the 2022 trade deadline, when he was traded to Anaheim as part of the trade that brought Raisel Iglesias to Atlanta. He spent parts of two seasons with the Angels and struggled badly. In 68 1/3 innings of work spread between 18 relief appearances and eight starts, Davidson was shelled to the tune of a 6.72 ERA with a 4.93 FIP. That led the Angels to part ways with the lefty, and he finished the 2023 campaign with the Royals. He posted a 5.03 ERA in Kansas City before the aforementioned waiver claim that brought him to Baltimore last offseason.

Going forward, the Orioles will have one week to pass Davidson through waivers. While he’s likely to clear waivers, he’ll become a minor league free agent this winter if not added back to the 40-man roster before free agency opens in November. Should he reach the open market, Davidson could garner some attention as a minor league depth option from the left side thanks to his ability to pitch both out of the bullpen and in the starting rotation.

Report: Cardinals Open To Offers On Sonny Gray

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After a second consecutive season where they’ll miss the playoffs, the Cardinals organization appears to be in flux. With a presser scheduled for early in this coming week, rumors have swirled that the club is set to make some notable organizational changes to kick off their offseason. Those changes figure to be headlined by former Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom stepping into a larger role with the club’s baseball operations department, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports this morning that this offseason’s changes could carry over to the big league roster as well. Per Nightengale, the Cardinals are willing to listen to offers on veteran right-hander Sonny Gray just one year after signing him to a hefty three-year, $75MM deal as the team hopes to cut payroll entering next year.

The notion of St. Louis looking to trim down its payroll isn’t exactly a shocking one. Cardinals attendance dropped below 3 million this year for the first time since 2003 (ignoring the pandemic-impacted seasons of 2020 and 2021), leaving the club with less gate revenue than expected. Meanwhile, the TV revenue side of things isn’t much rosier as the Cardinals are one of the teams impacted by the ongoing Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy. While MLB and the Players’ Association agreed back in July to redirect funds towards clubs that have lost TV revenue amid Diamond’s troubles, it would hardly be a surprise if the club’s budgets going forward were impacted by this revenue uncertainty.

Even if the overall baseball operations budget isn’t reduced, it’s still possible to imagine the club’s player payroll dropping heading into 2025. After all, The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported on the state of the Cardinals organization earlier this week and described a situation where the club has begun to prioritize major league payroll over investing in the organization’s development infrastructure, resulting in cuts to key areas of player development in order to sustain an ever-growing payroll at the big league level. With changes to the front office seemingly on the horizon, it’s certainly plausible that the club could pare back its payroll in order to invest in a more robust player development apparatus.

That possibility of a lower big league payroll next year leads back to Gray, who will see his back-loaded salary rise from $10MM this year to $25MM in 2025. While RosterResource at Fangraphs suggests St. Louis has just $108MM in guaranteed commitments for next year, that doesn’t include an increasingly expensive arbitration class including key players like Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, and Ryan Helsley. Nor does it include the possibility of the club deciding to exercise its club option on one or both of Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, each of which are $12MM options with $1MM buyouts. With Gray’s $15MM raise this year and those possible additions to the payroll, it’s easy to see why the Cardinals may need to trade salary away in order to address the roster’s needs this winter even after shedding Paul Goldschmidt’s $26MM salary when he reaches free agency in November.

With that being said, losing Gray would be a major blow to St. Louis’s hopes of contending next year. The veteran right-hander had something of a down season in his first year with the Cardinals, posting a 3.84 ERA that’s just 9% better than league average by ERA+. Even so, Gray’s 3.12 FIP was nothing short of excellent and he remains just one year removed from a dominant season with the Twins that saw him finish second in AL Cy Young award voting behind Gerrit Cole. The 34-year-old hurler would likely be an improvement to just about any club’s rotation next year, but it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals themselves finding an adequate replacement for the right-hander internally coming off a season where the club’s starters collective posted a 4.36 ERA that ranks 21st in the majors and a 4.08 FIP that ranks 15th even with Gray in the fold.

What’s more, the hefty salary that could lead the Cardinals to consider dealing Gray could prove to be an anchor that makes him surprisingly difficult to trade. Between his salary for the next two years and a $5MM buyout on his option for 2027, Gray is owed $65MM over the next two seasons. That’s a hefty sum for any club to take on, and it could be especially problematic for clubs at or near the luxury tax. Upon being traded, contracts are recalculated for luxury tax purposes based on the remaining dollars and years on the deal, meaning that an acquiring team would be accepting a hit of nearly $32.5MM to their luxury tax ledger over the next two years by trading for Gray. Even if the Cardinals can find a trade partner willing to stomach that cost, Gray’s full no-trade clause could further complicate things by allowing him to block any deal if so chooses.

That’s not to say a deal would be completely impossible, of course. Plenty of players with no-trade clauses and even larger contracts than Gray have been dealt over the years, and if the Cardinals are sufficiently motivated to get a deal done there will surely be suitors for a pitcher of Gray’s caliber. Nightengale suggests that the Reds, for whom Gray pitched from 2019-21 and made his second career trip to the All-Star game, could have interest in a reunion if the veteran is made available this winter.

The Reds have had a disappointing season in 2024 but nonetheless sport an exciting young core of talent led by right-hander Hunter Greene and shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Adding Gray as an experienced, front-of-the-rotation veteran would be a huge boost for a Cincinnati rotation that appears likely to lose Nick Martinez to free agency this year but still has a number of interesting young arms behind Greene such as Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Rhett Lowder, and Graham Ashcraft. Any of those young arms would surely be attractive to St. Louis as a potential return for Gray’s services given their own rotation needs, though it seems likely that the Cardinals would need to retain some money in order to facilitate such a deal given the Reds’ typically low payrolls and Gray’s large contract.

Twins Select Randy Dobnak

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The Twins announced this morning that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Randy Dobnak. In a corresponding move, right-hander Diego Castillo was designated for assignment.

Dobnak, 29, signed an ill-fated extension with the Twins prior to the 2021 season on the heels of a 2020 campaign where he showed promise as a potential mid-rotation starter with a 4.05 ERA and 3.96 FIP through ten starts. After a strong rookie campaign in 2019, that gave Dobnak a career 3.12 ERA and 3.56 FIP across 75 innings of work in the majors at the time of the deal. Unfortunately, things quickly went off the rails for the right-hander as he surrendered a ghastly 7.64 ERA in 50 2/3 innings of work during the first year of his extension. Those lackluster results led to the club outrighting him off the 40-man roster in September of 2022.

Since then, Dobnak has remained in the Twins organization while primarily pitching at Triple-A. He’s done fairly well for himself in the minors this year, with a 4.25 ERA in 133 1/3 innings of work that earned him another look at the big league level. That stint back in the majors earlier this year didn’t go over very well, however, as Dobnak surrendered a 5.87 ERA in 7 2/3 frames before being shipped back to the minors. He’ll now finish the season in the Twins bullpen and on the 40-man roster. He remains under contract with the club through the end of the 2025 season, and does not yet have enough service time to reject an outright assignment without also forfeiting the remainder of his contract.

Making room for Dobnak on the club’s 40-man roster is Castillo, who signed with Minnesota on a minor league deal over the offseason and was first selected to the roster at the end of May. Since then, he’s posted a solid enough 2.70 ERA in 10 innings of work but hasn’t been able to stick on the Twins roster due to shaky peripherals, including more walks (eight) than strikeouts (six) in the majors. When at Triple-A with the Twins this year, Castillo has struggled badly with a 5.59 ERA in 40 appearances.

Despite those deep struggles, however, it’s not impossible to imagine the right-hander continuing to draw attention from clubs as a minor league depth option this winter. After all, Castillo excelled with the Rays and Mariners earlier in his career with a 3.12 ERA and 3.69 FIP in 250 appearances from 2018 to 2022. Any club that believes they can unlock that form in Castillo will surely have interest in bringing him into the fold and seeing what he has next spring. Of course, before Castillo can officially reach free agency he’ll need to clear waivers sometime in the next week.

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