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NL East Notes: Marlins, Urueta, Albernaz, Painter, Yepez
The Marlins are reportedly considering former bench coach Luis Urueta and Guardians bench coach Craig Albernaz for their managerial vacancy, according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. Urueta is perhaps something of an unusual candidate since the Marlins already fired him as part of their wide-ranging purge of the coaching staff, training staff, and clubhouse attendants, though reports indicated that Urueta and Jon Jay were the only two coaches Miami had interest in bringing back. It isn’t known if the Marlins have conducted formal interviews with Urueta, Albernaz, or any other candidates, though in Albernaz’s case, his availability is limited until the Guardians’ playoff run is over.
Urueta served as the Marlins’ interim manager for the final two games of the season after a family health matter forced Skip Schumaker to miss what was the last weekend of his two-season tenure in Miami. Urueta was also the bench coach for those two seasons under Schumaker, and his previously MLB coaching job was a five-year stint on the Diamondbacks’ staff from 2018-22 (acting as bench coach for the last three of those seasons).
Albernaz is still in the midst of his first season as Cleveland’s bench coach, after previously working as a bullpen and catching coach for the Giants from 2019-22, and before that working in a variety of roles in the Rays’ farm system after his playing career ended in 2014. As Heyman notes, this resume makes him a known quantity to Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix (previously Tampa Bay’s general manager) and to assistant GM Gabe Kapler, formerly the Giants’ manager when Albernaz was on the staff. Albernaz was interviewed by the Guards last offseason about their own managerial vacancy before Stephen Vogt was hired, and thought enough of Albernaz to still bring him aboard onto Vogt’s staff.
More from around the NL East…
- Andrew Painter’s first outing in the Arizona Fall League saw the Phillies prospect allow two runs over 29 pitches and two innings of work, with Jack Vita of the Philadelphia Inquirer noting that three of Painter’s fastballs hit the 100mph threshold. It was the first game action of any kind for Painter since Spring Training 2023, when he suffered a UCL sprain that eventually led to Tommy John surgery that July. “The arm’s healthy and that was the biggest takeaway,” Painter told Vita and other reporters. “Everything felt like it was coming out good. I felt like my old self, so that’s all I can really take away from that.” While the surgery halted the progress of one of the sport’s top pitching prospects, Painter should be in line to make his MLB debut at some point in 2025, though obviously the Phillies will be cautious with his development. Painter is slated to throw 20 innings in AFL play and will start next season in the minors — the right-hander has yet to reach the Triple-A level and has only 28 1/3 frames of experience in Double-A ball.
- Juan Yepez, Joey Meneses, and Andres Chaparro are all right-handed hitting first basemen who are possibly best suited to DH duty, and these similarities make it unlikely that all three are on the Nationals’ roster next season. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com thinks Yepez probably has the best chance of the trio, as Yepez hit a solid .283/.335/.429 over 249 plate appearances for Washington in 2024 and had particularly good splits against left-handed pitching. That might be enough to make the difference in deciding possible platoon or part-time roles for next year’s club.
Padres Notes: Profar, Higashioka, De Vries, Salas
The postseason will move on without the Padres involved tonight when the Mets travel to Dodger Stadium for Game 1 of the NLCS, and the Padres now figure to turn their attention to building for the 2025 season. Among the top needs to address on the club’s offseason to-do list figures to be addressing the needs created by the possible departure of pending free agents. Infielder Ha-Seong Kim is perhaps the club’s most high-profile free agent, though between his recent surgery leaving questions regarding his market and San Diego’s considerable depth in the middle infield, left fielder Jurickson Profar and catcher Kyle Higashioka are likely higher priorities for the club to either return or replace.
In the case of Profar, the 31-year-old has made clear that he prefers to stay with the Padres. Profar told reporters (including MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell) yesterday that he hopes to return to San Diego next year before acknowledging that the decision isn’t “totally in [his] hands,” adding that the Padres “have got to want [him], too.”
After signing a one-year deal with the Padres over the offseason that guaranteed him just $1MM last year, Profar enjoyed a breakout season that is sure to earn him a significant pay raise headed into 2025. In 158 games with San Diego this year, Profar slashed an excellent .280/.380/.459 (139 wRC+) with 24 home runs, 10 steals, a strong 11.1% walk rate and an excellent 15.1% strikeout rate. That strong all-around play came together to create by far the most valuable season of Profar’s career as he posted 4.3 fWAR, leaving him sandwiched between Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker as the seventh most valuable outfielder in baseball this year.
That strong season should make Profar among the most interesting free agents of the winter. Valuable as his offense was this year, he provides virtually no defensive value as a below-average glove limited to left field and his track record on offense is spotty at best. Profar’s career wRC+ is actually below league average (99) even after this year’s phenomenal campaign, and even his 107 wRC+ since first joining San Diego in 2020 is closer to solid than spectacular for a player of Profar’s limited defensive value. If those possible red flags leave teams cautious about giving Profar a hefty guarantee, it’s certainly feasible to imagine the sides working something out to keep the veteran in San Diego going forward.
Of course, a Profar reunion would only serve to further elevate what already figures to be a complicated payroll picture for the Padres next year. The club is currently set to be on the hook for just over $207MM according to RosterResource next year, with a payroll of more than $243MM for luxury tax purposes. It’s possible that offseason trades or perhaps even a creative extension for an arbitration-level player like Luis Arraez could lower those numbers, but the Padres nonetheless appear likely to be nearing their payroll capacity even before reuniting with Profar or addressing the multiple holes in the club’s rotation.
That could leave the Padres needing to scrimp on other parts of the roster, particularly if they hope to retain Profar. One position where the club could look to save money is behind the plate, where Kyle Higashioka impressed in his final year before free agency with 17 homers in 263 trips to the plate for the Padres this year. Much like Profar, Higashioka indicated an interest in returning to the Padres as he heads into free agency, telling reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that he loved playing in southern California and that his time with the Padres has been the most fun he’s had with a team.
With Higashioka potentially in line for a hefty raise this winter, however, Acee suggests that San Diego brass could instead look to part ways with both him and Kim this winter as they wait for the impending arrival of the club’s top prospects. Catcher Ethan Salas entered the 2024 season as a consensus top-10 prospect in baseball after reaching the Double-A level as a 17 year old, but Acee notes that shortstop prospect Leodalis De Vries, who turned 18 just two days ago, is even more highly regarded by Padres brass.
What’s more, Acee notes that there have been discussions within the organization about the possibility of both teenage phenoms making their big league debuts as soon as 2025. If the Padres truly believe both players could be ready for the majors sometime next year, that could incentivize them to focus on other areas of the roster this winter and stick to relatively short-term options behind the plate and at shortstop who could be pushed aside in the event that Salas or De Vries cracks the big league roster.
Of course, both players would need to rocket through the minor leagues at a breakneck pace to reach the majors next year. Salas spent the entire 2024 season at the High-A level and slashed a lackluster .206/.288/.311 in 111 games with the club, while De Vries slashed an excellent .238/.361/.442 across 75 games in his first taste of professional action this year but has not yet played above the Single-A level. While breakout rookie Jackson Merrill stands as an example of San Diego’s willingness to push top prospects aggressively, even he had nearly 50 games of success in the upper minors before cracking the big league roster.
NLCS Roster Notes: Rojas, McNeil, Vesia
The Dodgers and Mets have announced their 26-man rosters for the NLCS this afternoon. Dodgers shortstop Miguel Rojas was a notable omission from the L.A. roster, while Mets infielder Jeff McNeil is notably joining the club’s roster after a wrist fracture sidelined him throughout the final month of the regular season and the early part of the playoffs. Rojas was replaced on the club’s roster by outfielder Kevin Kiermaier, while right-hander Adam Ottavino was dropped from the Mets’ roster to accommodate McNeil. Left-hander Alex Vesia was also left off the Dodgers’ latest roster, with right-hander Brent Honeywell Jr. added to the roster as Vesia’s replacement. Rojas, Ottavino, and Vesia will be eligible for the club’s World Series roster because they were not removed from the roster mid-series.
Rojas departs the club’s postseason roster after suffering a partially torn adductor muscle late in the regular season. The 35-year-old veteran was able to rest up during the Wild Card Series, which the Dodgers did not participate in after capturing a bye through the first round, and participate in the NLDS against the Padres. He re-aggravated the injury while playing in the series, however, and appeared in just three of the five games while going 2-for-8 at the plate. While Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times notes that Rojas believes that he’s currently healthy enough to play, the Dodgers were evidently concerned that if Rojas aggravated the injury further he would be unavailable for the World Series in the event that the club advances. By leaving him off the NLCS roster entirely, the Dodgers hope to give Rojas the opportunity to rest up for the World Series.
With the Dodgers’ primary shortstop no longer available, Tommy Edman now figures to slide from center field to shortstop on a regular basis. That opens up center field for utility bat Enrique Hernandez, who impressed during the NLDS with a three-for-nine performance that included a home run. The strong showing added to Hernandez’s lengthy postseason resume, as he’s a career .277/.351/.548 hitter in 211 trips to the plate across 75 playoff games, 64 of which have come in a Dodgers uniform. Kevin Kiermaier and Andy Pages are both on the roster as potential backup options in center field should an injury occur, while Mookie Betts, Chris Taylor, and Hernandez himself all have experience at shortstop should a replacement for Edman be necessary at any point during the series.
While the Dodgers are losing a key member of their middle infield ahead of the series, the Mets are returning one of their own from the injured list in McNeil. The 32-year-old struggled through a second consecutive down season at the plate this year, posting just a .238/.308/.384 slash line (97 wRC+) in 128 games before going on the shelf due to a fractured wrist in early September. Five weeks after hitting the injured list, McNeil now returns to the roster to provide the Mets with a versatile lefty bat capable of slotting into second base, third base, and the outfield corners as needed. Journeyman Jose Iglesias has handled the keystone in McNeil’s absence but could take a seat on the bench for the NLCS after hitting just .207/.233/.207 in 30 trips to the plate across seven games this postseason. Rookie Luisangel Acuna is also on the postseason roster as a middle infield option but has primarily found usage as a defensive replacement to this point in the club’s playoff run.
The addition of McNeil’s lefty bat to the lineup could be particularly valuable for the Mets given the Dodgers’ loss of Vesia. Manager Dave Roberts told reporters yesterday that Vesia was unlikely to make the NLCS roster due to an intercostal injury, and that eventuality has now come to pass. While Roberts floated the possibility of right-hander Tony Gonsolin (who missed the entire 2024 regular season while rehabbing Tommy John surgery) replacing Vesia on the club’s NLCS roster, it seems that L.A. ultimately decided to turn to Honeywell rather than lean on Gonsolin to get postseason outs in his first big league appearance in over a year. The 29-year-old Honeywell has posted a solid 2.63 ERA in 37 2/3 innings of work for the Pirates and Dodgers this year despite a lackluster 4.28 FIP and figures to provide L.A. with a much-needed multi-inning option as the club weighs the possibility of multiple bullpen games during the course of the seven-game series.
Poll: Who Will Win The ALCS?
Yesterday, the Guardians punched their ticket to the ALCS with an emphatic 7-3 win over the Tigers that included a Lane Thomas Grand Slam off of likely AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal, allowing Cleveland to take the fifth and and final game of the series.
As the NLCS (the result of which you can vote on here) kicks off between the Dodgers and Mets today, the Guardians will be traveling to New York for Game 1 against the Yankees, which is scheduled for tomorrow night. The Yankees spent the early part of the weekend waiting to see who their opponent would be after dispatching the Royals in four games. The early finish to the series gave the club three days off to realign their rotation and rest their bullpen for the upcoming seven-game set, a welcome breather given the fact that the Orioles hung around the AL East race deep into September.
No one should be surprised the Yankees have made it this far. After all, just two years after Aaron Judge’s herculean 62-homer effort delivered the club to the postseason despite virtually no support from the rest of the lineup throughout the second half of the season in 2022, Judge delivered arguably an even more impressive season in 2024 that should earn him his second AL MVP trophy. Perhaps even more important than Judge’s dominant season, however, is the fact that this year he had help in the form of Juan Soto. The Yankees were aggressive in pursuing Soto when the Padres made him available last winter, and ultimately gave up a five-player package headlined by right-handers Michael King and Drew Thorpe to acquire another star who could complement Judge in the lineup. Soto delivered on that promise and then some, slashing a sensational .288/.419/.569 in 157 games amid the best season of the 25-year-old’s career.
While the Yankees were widely expected to make some noise this season after adding Soto, the Guardians entered the 2024 season as little more than an afterthought. The club went just 76-89 last year and made few major changes over the offseason besides hiring Stephen Vogt to take over in the dugout after longtime manager Terry Francona elected to depart the club amid health issues, and an early-season injury to Shane Bieber in his final year under club control appeared to many to be the final nail in the club’s coffin this year.
That’s not how things turned out, however, as the Guardians managed to ride strong production from Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan in the lineup in conjunction with an otherworldly effort from the club’s bullpen to 92 wins, enough to dominate a resurgent and highly competitive AL Central division. While the entire Cleveland bullpen was extremely impressive, with a collective 2.57 ERA that was more than half a run better than the league’s second-best relief corps, closer Emmanuel Clase put together one of the most impressive seasons by a reliever in MLB history. Among all relief seasons with at least 50 innings of work since the start of the modern era in 1901, Clase’s ERA- of 15 ranks second to only Zack Britton’s dominant 2016 season. Even looking beyond Clase, however, the Cleveland bullpen has been something to behold this year as Eli Morgan, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, and youngster Cade Smith each joined Clase in posting sub-2.00 ERAs, though none were quite as dominant as their closer’s 0.61 figure.
The Guardians, without any notable players on the verge of returning from injury or suffering from known day-to-day issues that could take them out of discussion for the roster, aren’t facing much uncertainty regarding their roster as they prepare to submit their final roster decisions tomorrow. The same cannot be said for the Yankees, who plan to wait until Monday to finalize decisions not only on how many pitchers the club will carry into the ALCS but also on the status of first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who suffered two broken fingers in the final days of the regular season and was unavailable during the ALDS.
In the rotation, it seems fair to say the Yankees have a substantial advantage. While neither side has announced a probable starter for Game 1, the club has penciled veteran ace Gerrit Cole in to start Game 2 and with breakout rookie Luis Gil expected to take the ball later in the series, it seems likely that either lefty Carlos Rodon or righty Clarke Schmidt will be on the bump for New York in Game 1, with Marcus Stroman also available as a potential depth option for the rotation if necessary.
The Guardians, meanwhile, relied on the trio of Tanner Bibee, Matthew Boyd, and Alex Cobb to get them through the ALDS. Cobb will be the only one on full rest in time for Game 1, making him the club’s most likely option to start the game, but it’s worth noting that both he and Boyd combined for just 11 starts during the regular season and managed just 9 2/3 innings across their three starts during the ALDS. Dominant as the Guardians’ bullpen has been this postseason, it remains to be seen if the club can rely on their relievers to throw nearly 60% of the team’s innings in a seven-game series as they did during their five-game set against the Tigers.
How will the ALCS play out? Which team is headed to the World Series, and how competitive will this series be?
Gavin Stone Likely To Miss 2025 Season Following Shoulder Surgery
The Dodgers announced this evening that right-hander Gavin Stone underwent surgery on his right shoulder on October 9. The surgery was performed by Dr. Neal ElAttrache and figures to cause Stone to miss the entire 2025 season.
Stone, 26 next week, made his big league debut with the Dodgers last year to lackluster results but enjoyed a breakout campaign this season upon being forced into the rotation by a number of pitching injuries. Stone wound up being one of the club’s most reliable pitchers for most of the year as key players like Bobby Miller, Walker Buehler, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Tyler Glasnow all fell by the wayside throughout significant portions of the season due to injuries, ineffectiveness, or a combination thereof. During that time, Stone stepped up to post a solid 3.53 ERA (109 ERA+) with a 4.01 FIP in 140 1/3 innings of work across 25 starts, including an utterly dominant 2.73 ERA in his first 15 starts of the season.
Unfortunately for the Dodgers, Stone began to flag late in the season as he made it out of the fifth inning just three times after the All-Star break, pitching to a 4.12 ERA and 5.00 FIP in his final eight starts of the year before he too was placed on the IL in early September due to what at the time was termed right shoulder inflammation. The soreness persisted throughout the month of September and eventually led to him being more or less ruled out for the club’s postseason push just under a month ago. At the time, there was little indication that Stone wouldn’t be ready to go come Spring Training 2025 but that’s no longer the case as the youngster will likely have to wait until 2026 to follow up on an impressive rookie campaign.
While the news changes little for the Dodgers as they look to take on the Mets in the NLCS tomorrow in hopes of advancing to their first World Series since the shortened 2020 season, Stone’s absence is a devastating blow to the club’s 2025 starting rotation. With Shohei Ohtani expected to return to the club’s rotation early next year, it seems likely that the Dodgers will employ a six-man rotation next year as the Angels did while Ohtani was pitching for them. Ohtani, Yamamoto, and Glasnow figure to occupy three of those six slots, but the Dodgers have little in the way of certainty beyond that group.
Miller will return to the club next year but struggled to an 8.52 ERA in 13 starts this year, leaving questions regarding how willing the club would be to rely on him for a significant number of starts next year. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May both figure to return to the mound early next year, but will be coming off lengthy absences that could make them questionable choices to pencil in for 30 starts a piece. Clayton Kershaw could return but is undecided about his future after a mostly lost season due to injury, while both Buehler and Jack Flaherty are ticketed for free agency this November.
Given the numerous questions the Dodgers face regarding their rotation depth this winter, it seems likely that bolstering their starting pitching corps will be a priority for the club this winter even as they boast a number of potentially strong options. This winter’s free agent class of starters is headlined by Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried, and Flaherty. The Dodgers have shown little hesitance about shopping at the top of the free agent market, so it’s certainly feasible to imagine that caliber of name being in play for the club. Even looking beyond that group, however, L.A. could still bolster their rotation depth with mid-tier options like Nathan Eovaldi, Sean Manaea, or Luis Severino or even search for a bounce-back candidate or two as they’ve done with Tyler Anderson and Noah Syndergaard in recent years.
Yankees Notes: Pitching Staff, Rizzo, Verdugo
The Yankees now know they’ll be taking on the Guardians in the ALCS when it begins on Monday, and manager Aaron Boone spoke to reporters (including Bryan Hoch of MLB.com) about the club’s roster plans for the coming series. Of note, Boone indicated that after bringing just 11 pitchers to the ALDS they’ll be expanding their pitching staff headed into the seven-game set, though it’s not yet clear whether they’ll use the maximum 13 pitchers allowed or settle for 12 in order to maintain a more flexible bench.
Regardless of how many pitchers end up coming, the Yankees will need to utilize four rotation arms in the upcoming seven-game series after turning to only Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clarke Schmidt in the best-of-five ALDS. Per Hoch, Boone indicated that right-hander Luis Gil will be joining the club’s rotation for the ALCS, though neither he nor Gerrit Cole will start Game 1 with Cole scheduled for a start in Game 2 and Gil expected to start later in the series. That would seemingly leave either Rodon or Schmidt lined up to start the first game of the ALCS.
Schmidt has both the stronger regular season and postseason numbers of the pair, having posted a 2.85 ERA in 16 regular season starts and thrown 4 2/3 innings of two-run ball against the Royals during the ALDS. With that said, Rodon did strike out seven batters in his 3 2/3 innings of work during the ALDS (albeit with four earned runs on his ledger) and would be start Game 1 on an additional day of rest as compared to Schmidt. Veteran righty Marcus Stroman is also theoretically available to start if needed but seems likely to be used as a starter only in an emergency after being moved to the bullpen late in the regular season and being left off the ALDS roster entirely. Stroman could make the ALCS roster as a multi-inning reliever or emergency starter, though it’s also possible the club could want to add another short relief arm such as Mark Leiter Jr. to their bullpen mix headed into the series.
As the Yankees ponder how many pitchers to roster for the ALCS, one potential factor in that decision could be how many roster spots they need to allocate to first base. Veteran first baseman Anthony Rizzo was absent from the ALDS roster after suffering two broken fingers in the final days of the regular season. In his stead, the Yankees relied on a combination of Oswaldo Cabrera and Jon Berti at first base when facing Kansas City. The pair went a combined 3-for-12 with a double, four walks and four strikeouts during the series and could be turned to once again at first depending on Rizzo’s status.
Rookie Ben Rice was also on the ALDS roster as a first base option but ultimately did not make it into a game, making him a logical cut from the ALCS roster either for the return of Rizzo or the addition of another pitcher. Hoch relays that Boone told reporters the veteran first baseman was making “some progress” as he looks to return in time for the ALCS, though Boone didn’t get into specifics about Rizzo’s status and noted that a final decision about his availability likely would not be made until the club finalizes its roster plans on Monday.
One position that seems fairly set in stone for the Bronx headed into next week’s series, however, is left field. After a lackluster regular season that saw the Yankees briefly turn to top prospect Jasson Dominguez over him down the stretch, Verdugo received the nod in left field headed into the playoffs. While Verdugo went just three-for-14 in the ALDS this year, he did deliver a clutch performance in Game 1 where he notched two hits, knocked in the go-ahead run and made an impressive defensive play in the outfield to rob Royals second baseman Michael Massey of a hit.
Verdugo’s Game 1 heroics were evidently enough to earn him a starting nod in the left field headed into the ALCS, as Boone indicated (as relayed by Hoch) that the outfielder is “likely” to remain the club’s starter in left for their coming series against Cleveland. Dominguez, Trent Grisham, and Duke Ellis were other outfielders included on the club’s ALDS roster, Ellis’s brief cameo a pinch runner in Game 5 was the only appearance any of the three made during the series. If the Yankees ultimately decide to go to 13 pitchers on the roster, cutting one of those outfield options could be another way to free up space for more pitching.
Roberts: Tony Gonsolin “In The Mix” For Dodgers’ NLCS Roster
As the Dodgers plan out their NLCS roster ahead of the first game of the series tomorrow, manager Dave Roberts spoke to reporters about the club’s plans for the upcoming best-of-seven set. Among the options the club is considering for the roster, according to Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, is right-hander Tony Gonsolin.
Gonsolin, who has spent the entire 2024 season to this point rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, began a rehab assignment in September and built up to 50 pitches in those games but was more or less ruled out for the postseason by Roberts two weeks ago, when he indicated that “something really unforeseen” would need to happen in order for Gonsolin to pitch in the playoffs. Evidently, the swath of injuries to the club’s pitching staff that have occurred since then constitute a sufficiently unforeseen circumstance that the Dodgers are once again considering the right-hander for a role in the postseason rotation.
Roberts (as relayed by Ardaya) ruled out both Joe Kelly and Brusdar Graterol for the NLCS this evening when discussing the club’s options, and right-hander Michael Grove is ineligible to return before the World Series after being removed from the club’s NLDS roster due to injury. ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez was among those to relay that Roberts added lefty Alex Vesia to the growing list of hurlers expected to be unavailable for the NLCS, as he’s dealing with an intercostal injury that Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times notes left Roberts to express optimism Vesia may be able to return for the World Series if the club advances.
Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips, Ryan Brasier, Anthony Banda, Daniel Hudson, Ben Casparius, Edgardo Henriquez, and Landon Knack all were on the club’s NLDS roster and figure to once again be available for the club’s upcoming series against the Mets, and with each of Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto expected to reprise their roles in the club’s rotation that leaves just one open spot to be filled by either Gonsolin or Brent Honeywell Jr. though it’s certainly feasible that Henriquez or Casparius could also be left off the roster to accommodate the addition of both arms.
That may be a wise decision for the club at this point, as Roberts noted (as relayed by Jack Harris of the L.A. Times) that Yamamoto will not be pulled off his current schedule of five days off between starts. Those required days off between starts would leave Yamamoto able to start just one game in this series, meaning that the club will have to turn to its relievers to handle as many as two games this series assuming that Flaherty and Buehler make two starts each. The addition of multi-inning arms like Gonsolin and Honeywell, then, could provide the club with some much-needed length out of the bullpen that they currently only stand to get out of Knack.
In 37 2/3 innings of work spread between 20 appearances with the Dodgers and Pirates this year, Honeywell has pitched to an excellent 2.63 ERA but has done so with lackluster peripherals, including a 12.1% strikeout rate and a 4.28 FIP. Gonsolin, meanwhile, hasn’t pitched in the majors since the middle of the 2023 campaign but sports a career 3.19 ERA and 3.99 FIP 79 appearances (including 71 starts) in the majors since he made his debut back in 2019. The righty’s postseason resume is lackluster, however, as he’s surrendered a 9.20 ERA in 14 2/3 frames during the playoffs throughout his career.
Padres, Jackson Merrill Reportedly Discussed Pre-Debut Extension
The Padres saw their season come to an end last night at the hands of their division rivals in Los Angeles, but despite that disappointing end the 2024 campaign was nonetheless littered with plenty of bright spots for fans in San Diego. Perhaps the most significant among those was the emergence of Jackson Merrill, who entered Spring Training as a shortstop prospect with just 46 games at the Double-A level under his belt and turned a surprise Opening Day assignment in center field into a phenomenal rookie season.
Before that sensational season came together, however, it seems the Padres were already hoping to lock in the youngster’s services for the long haul. A report from The Athletic’s Dennis Lin earlier today revealed that San Diego brass discussed the possibility of an extension with Merrill last offseason, before the youngster had even made his MLB debut. The sides, of course, did not wind up coming together on a deal. That didn’t stop the Padres from installing Merrill in center field to kick off the season, however, and Merrill rewarded his club’s confidence in him with a season that saw him appear in 156 games while slashing .292/.326/.500 with 24 homers, 16 steals in 19 attempts, and a 130 wRC+.
Merrill’s debut season, during which he was just 21 years old, was the sort of campaign that inspires confidence in a young players ability to produce at the big league level. After all, Merrill showed off an impressive and varied profile that should help him continue to impact the Padres in all sorts of ways going forward. The youngster not only flashed impressive power with a .208 ISO that was second to only Aaron Judge among qualified center fielders this year, but he also struck out at an excellent 17% clip that was second to only Cody Bellinger by that same metric. And while his defense didn’t receive the universal praise lauded on players like Brenton Doyle and Daulton Varsho, Merrill’s +12 Outs Above Average at the position put him in the 97th percentile among big leaguers and made him the seventh most valuable defensive center fielder in the sport by the metric.
That combination of power, contact, and defense at a valuable up-the-middle position figures to leave Merrill as a wildly attractive extension candidate, particularly given that he’s currently scheduled to reach free agency after his age-26 campaign. With that being said, the price of extending a youngster of Merrill’s talent is sure to have gone up for the Padres relative to last winter now that he’s proven he can handle big league pitching. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker showcases how lucrative even one dominant season in the big leagues can be, as both Ronald Acuna Jr. and Julio Rodriguez landed nine-figure extensions in the final months of their respective Rookie of the Year campaigns.
While the presence of budding ace Paul Skenes could complicate Merrill’s own pursuit of that award, his 5.3 fWAR in his rookie season falls in the middle of Acuna’s 4.4 figure and Rodriguez’s 5.8, though it’s worth noting that Acuna was a year younger than either Rodriguez or Merrill during his rookie season. Given his similarity to those youngsters, it seems reasonable to expect that Merrill would garner a guarantee well above the $100MM Acuna landed even if Rodriguez’s convoluted $210MM guarantee is not exactly the simplest point of comparison.
For San Diego’s part, they’ve certainly shown a willingness to spend heavily on extensions for young players in the past. The most obvious example of this is the $340MM deal the club made with Fernando Tatis Jr. prior to his third season with the club, though Jake Cronenworth’s seven-year extension signed just before the start of the 2023 season is another noteworthy example of the club committing to a long-term extension for a player with several years of team control remaining. Of course, both of those deals came together under the ownership of the late Peter Seidler, and the Padres began to scale back their payroll last year following his passing and Eric Kutsenda’s ascent to the role of interim control person.
Extending Merrill could also have a significant impact on the club’s luxury tax payroll going forward. Since the luxury tax is calculated based on average annual value, back-loaded extensions such as the one signed by Tatis early in his career or a hypothetical Merrill extension often have a far more significant impact on a club’s luxury tax positioning than they do on the club’s actual payroll in the early years of the deal. That could prove to be an obstacle for the Padres, who per RosterResource currently have a guaranteed payroll of just over $231MM for 2025 before factoring in offseason additions of arbitration-level contracts for players like Luis Arraez and Michael King.
Ha-Seong Kim Reportedly Targeting Early-Season Return From Labrum Surgery
Ha-Seong Kim underwent labrum surgery on his right shoulder on Thursday. The Padres never provided a timeline for the infielder’s return, but Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune sheds some light on the recovery. According to Acee, Kim is targeting mid-late April or early May for his return to game action.
If he’s able to stay on that trajectory, Kim could be available for the majority of next season. Kim, who turns 29 next week, now represents one of the more interesting risk-reward plays in the free agent class. He’s still a lock to decline his end of a mutual option. The Padres could make him a $21.05MM qualifying offer, but that’d be a risky decision this early into his recovery from shoulder surgery. QO decisions are due within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. That’ll only afford the Padres about three weeks to gauge Kim’s health before making that call.
It seems unlikely the Padres would take that gamble. That’d allow Kim to hit free agency unencumbered by draft compensation. If healthy, he’d probably be in line for a contract of four-plus seasons. At his best, he’s only behind Willy Adames among middle infielders in the upcoming class. Adames is the only other impending free agent who profiles as an everyday shortstop. Kim has demonstrated that he can play plus defense at second and third base, as well, so he’d make sense for a broad range of teams.
Clubs’ evaluations of Kim’s shoulder will play an important role in his free agent process. If teams believe he’ll be fully recovered within the first month or two of next season, the injury theoretically shouldn’t have a huge impact on demand. That’s a big caveat, so it’s possible Kim’s market dips to the point where he considers a short-term deal.
Kim recently hired the Boras Corporation as his representation. A few rehabbing high-profile Boras clients have signed two-year contracts that allow them to opt out after the first season. Michael Conforto signed for $36MM with the Giants after missing the entire 2022 season to shoulder surgery. Last winter, Rhys Hoskins inked a $34MM deal with the Brewers a season removed from a Spring Training ACL tear.
Neither of those contracts have worked out especially well for the team. Conforto passed on his opt-out after a middling first season in San Francisco. Hoskins will probably do the same with Milwaukee. Kim is a very different player than Conforto or Hoskins — a lot more of his value is tied in his defense — but that’s a general path he might look to follow.
The Athletic’s Dennis Lin wrote this afternoon that the Padres would like to bring Kim back, though he notes that the infielder could price himself out of San Diego’s range. That’d leave the Friars with a question at shortstop. San Diego used Xander Bogaerts at the position down the stretch. Lin indicates the Padres prefer to move Bogaerts back to second base next season. Jackson Merrill came up as a shortstop prospect but played all 1300+ innings in center field as a rookie. Merrill had a fantastic debut campaign, so the Padres could decide to leave him in center.
