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Poll: Who Will Sign Jake Arrieta?

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Jake Arrieta is one of four major free agent starting pitchers who seems destined to sign in the new year.  Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras, has a long history of waiting out the market.  Here’s a list of free agent contracts signed by Boras clients in the last decade in January, February, or March:

Keep in mind, however, that not all of these contracts met expectations.  We ranked Arrieta fourth on our list, with a prediction of four years, $100MM that I’m guessing Boras would have said was way low.  I think Arrieta can still get a contract in that range.  But from which team?

The Cubs seem more interested in Yu Darvish than in bringing Arrieta back, but it’s reasonable to keep them in the mix for Jake.  Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports has linked the Nationals to Arrieta, and that’s certainly a team that was involved on many of the above-listed Boras free agents.  A source speaking to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post called the team’s interest in Arrieta “tepid.”  Heyman has also named the Phillies, though Inquirer beat writer Matt Gelb doesn’t see that as likely either.  The Astros, Blue Jays, Rockies, Rangers, Brewers, Twins, and Cardinals have been linked as well.  Keep in mind that teams that might have shied away from huge November/December demands for Arrieta could re-enter the picture if the price gets more realistic in the new year.  Another factor is draft pick compensation.  For more info on that, check out my post about which draft picks each team would lose by signing a qualified free agent like Arrieta.

With that, I throw it out to you:

(Poll link for app users)

Which team will sign Jake Arrieta?
Cubs 15.25% (3,926 votes)
The Field 13.62% (3,506 votes)
Rangers 12.27% (3,158 votes)
Brewers 10.66% (2,745 votes)
Cardinals 10.44% (2,687 votes)
Phillies 10.15% (2,613 votes)
Nationals 8.93% (2,300 votes)
Astros 5.97% (1,537 votes)
Twins 5.49% (1,414 votes)
Blue Jays 4.93% (1,269 votes)
Rockies 2.30% (593 votes)
Total Votes: 25,748

Levine On Asking Prices For Arrieta, Cobb

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Yesterday morning, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score published a report with a few interesting notes on free agent pitchers.  So far, the biggest free agent pitching signing has been the Cubs’ surprising $38MM deal for Tyler Chatwood, while Mike Minor, Jhoulys Chacin, Miles Mikolas, C.C. Sabathia, Mike Fiers, Doug Fister, and Yovani Gallardo are also off the board.

  • Six years and $160MM was said to be the starting point for Jake Arrieta in November, sources tell Levine.  Even in making these predictions in late October, we went with four years and $100MM for Arrieta.  Levine says Arrieta and fellow free agent Yu Darvish are currently looking for at least five-year deals.  The pair of righties were born 163 days apart back in 1986, and the case can be made that Darvish doesn’t deserve more years than Arrieta based on age.  Including Japan and the MLB postseason, Darvish has tallied 2,337 innings in his career, and he had Tommy John surgery in March 2015.  Including college and the MLB postseason, Arrieta is at 1,910 2/3.  Does this difference of 426 1/3 innings, thrown under many different stress levels, actually matter in terms of injury risk?  I have no idea, but the respective agents will make a few claims.  In the end, though, it’s just a bidding war.  Teams bid on both pitchers until the agents decide they’re unlikely to do better, and then a deal is made.
  • “It appears a four or five-year deal is expected” for free agent righty Alex Cobb, writes Levine.  Cobb had Tommy John surgery in May of 2015, and has just over 700 innings in his pro career.  A week ago, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports wrote that Cobb “likely sees Mike Leake ($80 million, five years) as a comp and is thought to have been asking for about $20 million a year.”  However, Levine wrote yesterday that “Dan Horwits, Cobb’s agent, has denied a report that the Cobb camp was asking for $20 million annually.”  Though we went with four years and $48MM in our early November predictions, I’d certainly take the over on the average annual value in light of the Chatwood contract.  At the time, I was looking at Brandon McCarthy’s four-year, $48MM deal with the Dodgers from three years ago, but it’s fair to say the market has moved since then on this type of pitcher.
  • Here on December 28th, the top four starting pitchers remain unsigned: Darvish (Wasserman), Arrieta (Boras), Cobb (Beverly Hills Sports Council), and Lance Lynn (Excel Sports Management).  As the process drags into January, it will be interesting to see if any of the four have to settle for a bargain deal.  The current free agency game of chicken between teams and agents has no recent precedent.

When Bad Teams Sign Big Free Agent Deals

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The Phillies recently beat the market for first baseman Carlos Santana with a three-year, $60MM deal.  This is a team that won 66 games in 2017, and despite also adding a pair of veteran relievers, doesn’t seem like they’re making a full push to contend in 2018.  The Santana signing got me thinking about other recent free agent deals given out by teams that had been in a clear rebuild.  Here’s a look at how five recent examples turned out.  Note that this excludes something like the Red Sox signing Pablo Sandoval, since the team wasn’t tanking prior to that contract.

  • Coming off a 73-win season, the Cubs signed pitcher Jon Lester to a six-year, $155MM deal, the second-largest of the 2014-15 offseason.  While the 2014 Cubs were clearly tanking, it was the third year of that effort under the Theo Epstein regime.  The Lester signing, which took some convincing on the Cubs’ part, was the signature move of an offseason that also included the additions of Joe Maddon, Dexter Fowler, Miguel Montero, and Jason Hammel.  The timing of the Lester signing made sense, and the 2015 Cubs won 97 games and made it to the NLCS.
  • Coming off a 51-win season, the Astros signed pitcher Scott Feldman to a three-year, $30MM deal, the 14th-largest of the 2013-14 offseason.  The Astros made this move despite having a year left in their tanking process.  This was the offseason in which the Astros also acquired Dexter Fowler and several veteran relievers. The Feldman signing was one of those “respectability” type deals for a team not quite yet ready to win.  While it may have been unnecessary, it’s also the smallest on this list and didn’t end up hampering the Astros.
  • Coming off a 61-win season, the Cubs signed pitcher Edwin Jackson to a four-year, $52MM deal, the sixth-largest of the 2012-13 offseason.  The Cubs were entering the second year of their rebuild, and they settled for Jackson after missing out on Anibal Sanchez.  It didn’t take long for regret to set in on this one, as Jackson was terrible for the Cubs from the get-go.  The Cubs likely saw Jackson as a high-floor pitcher who could take the ball 30 times and bring stability to their rotation, but do clearly rebuilding teams need to spend good money on that?
  • Coming off a 69-win season, the Nationals signed right fielder Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126MM deal, the second-largest of the 2009-10 offseason.  The Nationals would win 72 games in 2010, but then jumped to 80 wins in 2011 and 98 in 2012.  The team made the playoffs in 2012, ’14, ’16, and ’17, and Werth was a big factor in the team’s success in ’14.  Werth was good for just 3.0 WAR from 2011-12, but performed as a star-caliber player from 2013-14 with 9.7 WAR.  The Werth contract was widely panned at the time it was signed.  Though Werth concentrated most of his value into two of the seven seasons, the Nats didn’t come out that poorly overall.
  • Coming off a 62-win season, the Royals signed pitcher Gil Meche to a five-year, $55MM deal, the sixth-largest of the 2006-07 offseason.  The Meche contract was a real eyebrow-raiser at the time, but the righty was actually quite good for the first two years of the deal before injuries became a problem.  Meche is now best known for his stunning decision to walk away from the final year of that deal, forfeiting $12MM.  Though the case can be made that Meche was “worth” the money in his two good years, the team never contended during his tenure.  Would it have mattered if the 2008 Royals won 68 games instead of 72?

With the Santana signing, the Phillies can at least make the argument that they have a shot at contention in 2018.  The club currently projects for about 78 wins, but with a few more moves they can push into the range of the second Wild Card.  Teams like the Rockies, Giants, Pirates, Diamondbacks, and Mets aren’t too far ahead of them (this assumes the Cardinals are the favorite for the first Wild Card).  On the other hand, the Padres currently project for about 73 wins, which is why their flirtation with Eric Hosmer makes little sense.  The club would likely waste the first year of a Hosmer deal on a losing season, plus Hosmer simply isn’t as good as Werth was.  I think, for the most part, teams don’t need to sign large free agent deals until they’re actually ready to contend.

The 20 Largest Contracts Signed By Pitchers After Tommy John Surgery

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If you match up unsigned pitchers in our MLB free agent tracker with Jon Roegele’s excellent running list of those who had Tommy John surgery, it appears that 33 of the 92 hurlers on the market have that famous elbow procedure in their history:

Al Alburquerque
Brett Anderson
John Axford
Alex Cobb
Yu Darvish
Jorge de la Rosa
Jumbo Diaz
Brian Duensing
Scott Feldman
Neftali Feliz
Jaime Garcia
Miguel Gonzalez
A.J. Griffin
Jason Grilli
David Hernandez
Greg Holland
Drew Hutchison
John Lackey
Francisco Liriano
Lance Lynn
Dustin McGowan
Jason Motte
Peter Moylan
Eric O’Flaherty
Seung-hwan Oh
Zach Putnam
Bruce Rondon
Trevor Rosenthal
Anibal Sanchez
Shae Simmons
Drew Storen
Jason Vargas
Edinson Volquez

Meanwhile, a look at the 51 pitchers who have signed free agent contracts shows that 11 of them are Tommy John surgery survivors.  Tyler Chatwood, Jake McGee, and Pat Neshek all signed healthy contracts, with their procedures many years in the rearview.  In addition, Drew Smyly and Michael Pineda, who both had the surgery last July, set a new precedent by signing $10MM deals.  Smyly and Pineda have basically been written off for 2018, but the Cubs and Twins found a $10MM guarantee to be a worthy gamble in the hopes of full, effective 2019 seasons.

Of the 27 pitchers on our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, 10 have had Tommy John surgery.  That includes four of the top 11 free agents of any type: Darvish, Lynn, Holland, and Cobb.  Oddly enough, each member of that quartet had Tommy John in 2015 within an eight-month span.  MLBTR ranked Darvish as the best available free agent this winter, and he’s vying to land the largest free agent contract in MLB history for a pitcher who previously had Tommy John surgery.  Here’s my attempt at the all-time top 20 contracts pitchers received post-TJS:

1.  Stephen Strasburg – $175MM (extension with Nationals May 2016)
2.  Jordan Zimmermann – $110MM (free agent contract with Tigers Nov 2015)
3.  Adam Wainwright – $97.5MM (extension with Cardinals Mar 2013)
4.  A.J. Burnett – $82.5MM (free agent contract with Yankees Dec 2008)
T-5.  Anibal Sanchez – $80MM (free agent contract with Tigers Dec 2012)
T-5.  Wei-Yin Chen – $80MM (free agent contract with Marlins Jan 2016)
7.  C.J. Wilson – $77.5MM (free agent contract with Angels Dec 2011)
8.  Danny Duffy – $65MM (extension with Royals Jan 2017)
9.  Mark Melancon – $62MM (free agent contract with Giants Dec 2016)
10.  A.J. Burnett – $55MM (free agent contract with Blue Jays Dec 2005)
11.  Ryan Dempster – $52MM (free agent contract with the Cubs Nov 2008)
12.  Rich Hill – $48MM (free agent contract with Dodgers Dec 2016)
T-13.  Francisco Liriano – $39MM (free agent contract with Pirates Dec 2014)
T-13.  Josh Johnson – $39MM (extension with Marlins Jan 2010)
15.  Tyler Chatwood – $38MM (free agent contract with Cubs Dec 2017)
16.  Hyun-Jin Ryu – $36MM (contract with Dodgers involving posting system Dec 2012)
17.  Rafael Soriano – $35M (free agent contract with Yankees Jan 2011)
18.  Kerry Wood – $32.5MM (extension with Cubs Jan 2004)
19.  John Lackey – $32MM (free agent contract with Cubs Dec 2015)
T-20.  Scott Feldman – $30MM (free agent contract with Astros Jan 2014)
T-20. John Smoltz – $30MM (free agent contract with Braves Dec 2001)

If you notice any errors or omissions, please contact us.

Transaction Retrospective: The First Aroldis Chapman Swap

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Tomorrow is the two-year anniversary of the trade that sent Aroldis Chapman from the Reds to the Yankees. While Chapman is currently ensconced as New York’s closer, just as he was in the wake of the swap, the intervening period has seen quite a few twists and turns.

Aroldis Chapman

Six years before the trade, the Reds had landed Chapman as a free agent, staking a hefty $30.25MM bet on the power pitcher from Cuba. He proved the team wise, providing 319 innings of 2.17 ERA pitching and racking up 146 saves.

Entering the 2015-16 offseason, though, it seemed clear that it was time for both sides to move on. Chapman had just one year of control remaining, after all, and the Reds were coming off of a 64-win season. While the team struggled, Chapman was his typically dominant self, and seemed positioned to draw a big return.

In early December, it seemed Chapman was destined to join Kenley Jansen to form a terrifying one-two punch in Los Angeles. Precise details of the proposed Dodgers swap were never clear, though reportedly the Reds would not have added then-top L.A. prospects Julio Urias, Corey Seager, or Jose De Leon.

Just when it seemed a deal was imminent, though, a stunning off-field development intervened, as reports emerged that Chapman had been arrested earlier in the offseason for a troubling domestic incident. With Chapman’s reputation tarnished and a possible suspension looming, the Dodgers backed away and the market dried up.

Thus it was that the Yankees stepped into the void and placed a somewhat controversial bet on the game’s most intimidating reliever. Despite already carrying a fantastic late-inning duo of Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances, the Yanks saw an opportunity to create a three-headed bullpen monster. They shipped four prospects — third baseman Eric Jagielo, second baseman Tony Renda, and right-handers Rookie Davis and Caleb Cotham — to Cincinnati to acquire Chapman.

The risk, really, was never on the field or even in the course of the investigation: Chapman was one of the surest relievers in baseball and had he received a sufficiently lengthy suspension, he’d have been eligible for another season of arbitration. Rather, the Yanks were gambling that Chapman would be valuable enough to warrant absorbing a significant public relations hit.

While he was never arrested or charged with a crime, Chapman was rightly criticized and ultimately suspended for what commissioner Rob Manfred determined to be violent actions directed toward his girlfriend. He eventually acknowledged he “should have exercised better judgment” but insisted he “did not in any way harm [his] girlfriend that evening.”

At the same time, it is hard to escape the conclusion that the Yankees benefited greatly from taking him on. After returning from a thirty-game ban, Chapman picked up right where he left off, throwing 31 1/3 innings of 2.01 ERA pitching leading into the trade deadline. With the Yanks in a less-than-promising postseason position, the organization decided to market Chapman in the summer trade market, finding interest far more robust than had existed just months earlier.

Thus it was that the Yankees ended up with a foursome of players immensely more valuable than that which it had shipped to Cincinnati. New York sold the rights to rent Chapman for the remainder of 2016 to the Cubs, who obviously saw him as the final piece needed on a World Series-caliber roster.

Infielder Gleyber Torres was the undeniable headliner; he’s now seen as one of the game’s very best prospects. Though Rashad Crawford has yet to show much since coming to New York, outfielder Billy McKinney is now fresh off of a promising season in which he restored some of his former prospect luster. And the Yanks even came away with right-hander Adam Warren, who has provided 87 2/3 productive relief innings since the swap and is still under team control via arbitration for one more season.

Then, of course, there’s the fact that Chapman ended up returning to the Bronx after his brief stint with the Cubs. In the first year of his record-setting $86MM contract, the now-29-year-old Chapman wasn’t quite as devastating as usual — his 3.22 ERA was the second-highest mark of his career, and he has never before ended a season with a lower strikeout rate than his 12.3 K/9 — but he still averaged a triple-digit heater. While there are some signs of concern, including a plummeting swinging-strike rate, Chapman generally figures to remain one of baseball’s better closers for some time.

As for the Reds? Only Davis and Jagielo remain in the organization. As for the former, there’s certainly hope he’ll be a MLB contributor. Davis did make it up to the majors in 2017, though he struggled quite a bit and was less than dominant at the highest level of the minors. Jagielo, 25, struggled in his first attempt at Triple-A in 2017 and does not rate among the organization’s top thirty prospects, per MLB.com.

It remains a major disappointment for the Reds that they were unable to fully capitalize on Chapman. While some argued that the organization was foolish not to have carried him into the 2016 season rather than accepting a discounted return, that action would have come with its own significant risks. If there’s a silver lining, perhaps it’s that the Reds have since come to realize another successful investment in a high-powered Cuban reliever. Raisel Iglesias has now established himself as one of the game’s best young closers. For the time being, at least, it seems he’s staying put as the anchor of the Cincinnati bullpen.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Market For Josh Harrison

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In an update on the market for Pirates second baseman Josh Harrison, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune Review writes that a “handful” of organizations have at least reached out to gauge the asking price. Indeed, there’s some indication that he’s the Bucs’ most heavily pursued trade candidate.

Among the teams to have reached out are the Yankees, Mets, and Blue Jays. The Yanks were tied recently, albeit somewhat speculatively, to Harrison in relation to a potentially larger move involving Gerrit Cole. Interest from the latter two was reported a few weeks back (see here and here), though it’s notable to hear they’re still in pursuit.

Though further pursuers haven’t yet been identified, it isn’t difficult to imagine quite a few other clubs having interest. Harrison, after all, can play all over the diamond and would fit quite comfortably on a number of rosters.

His contract rights are also rather appealing. The 30-year-old will earn a reasonable $10MM in 2018 and can be controlled by successive club options. At $10.5MM and $11.5MM apiece, they won’t exactly come at a bargain rate, but the flexibility is plenty desirable in its own right.

Harrison likely won’t replicate his excellent 2014 campaign, but was plenty productive in 2017. He ended the year with a solid .272/.339/.432 batting line and career-best 16 home runs to go with a dozen steals. As usual, Harrison rated as a quality defender and baserunner, making him an approximately 3-WAR player despite only carrying league-average production at the plate.

At this point, it does not seem that any team has emerged as a clear favorite to acquire Harrison — or even that the Pirates are more likely than not to move him. While the organization could fill in from within should it deal Harrison, there’s also little question that he improves the team’s outlook for 2018. Just how inclined the Pirates will be to move him may hinge on whether they end up dealing Cole and/or long-time franchise face Andrew McCutchen.

Poll: “Pillow” Contracts

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It’s nearly January, and the ten best players on this winter’s free agent market according to MLBTR haven’t been signed (Masahiro Tanaka opted in to the remaining three years on his contract with the Yankees, so he never reached free agency). With teams being incredibly patient this year, some in the industry have suggested that one or more of these players could be willing to sign one-year “pillow contracts” at high average annual values, if they can’t find a long-term deal close enough to their current asking prices.

The idea of a pillow contract isn’t altogether farfetched. It’s not uncommon for smaller name free agents to accept one year deals in order to reestablish value after an injury-plagued (or otherwise subpar) season. Though it’s a bit less common for prominent healthy players to do this, there’s some precedent. Yoenis Cespedes’ three-year, $75MM deal with the Mets back during the 2015-2016 offseason was in some sense a pillow contract; the deal paid him $27.5MM over the first year, with an opt out the following offseason. It worked out well for Cespedes; he ultimately exercised the opt-out and agreed to a more lucrative four-year, $110MM pact (again with the Mets) the following winter.

Such contracts could also act as a failsafe should the top free agents find themselves unable to achieve their desired guarantees by the time February draws to a close. After all, one need not look any further than Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales for a cautionary tale about players overestimating the market for their services; both players remained unsigned well into the 2014 season and ultimately lost out on significant money. Of course, it should be noted that their markets were significantly affected by the old qualifying offer system.

On the other hand, a pillow contract carries its own type of risk. Injuries, stark drop-offs in performance, and a number other factors could hurt a player’s earning potential when he reaches free agency again. What’s more, the free agent market next year boasts some incredibly high-end talent; the 2018-2019 crop will probably include the likes of Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw, Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson. Should any of this year’s free agents opt to settle for high-value one-year contract, they could end up struggling for attention in a crowded market next winter, with the added downside of being a year older.

Obviously, no player will agree to a pillow contract except as a last resort prior to spring training. If they can’t get the guarantees they’re seeking now, it’s far more likely that these players would accept a smaller (but still hefty) multi-year guarantee rather than take a one-year deal and risk losing out on tens of millions of dollars. But the agents of these players have a greater agenda, and if the best offers their clients are getting would set a poor precedent for future contracts, it’s conceivable that the agents could become proponents of pillow contracts for their clients.

There are clear pros and cons to these deals, but I’ll open the conversation up to our reader base at this point. What do you think? (Poll link for app users)

Will Any Of The Top 10 2017-2018 Free Agents Take A Pillow Contract?
Yes, more than one 57.88% (5,168 votes)
No 22.54% (2,013 votes)
Yes, but only one 19.58% (1,748 votes)
Total Votes: 8,929

Quick Hits: Astros, Machado, Hamilton

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In a dramatic and suspenseful article, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic chronicles the recent harrowing life-or-death race to get Astros first base coach Rich Dauer to Houston Methodist Hospital. On the day of the Astros’ championship parade, Dauer was present at the official ceremony to honor the team. He began to stagger as if drunk, and stepped to the back of the stage. From there, a panicked attempt to get Dauer to the hospital amidst a crowd of millions of people unfolded behind the scenes. The piece is incredibly well-written, and thankfully has a happy ending. It’s definitely worth a full read.

More from around MLB as we approach the end of December…

  • Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun wonders if this offseason’s drama surrounding Orioles star Manny Machado could have been avoided. Meoli takes a look at the chances the Orioles had to explore trades or a contract extension with their prized third baseman, but he ultimately comes to the conclusion that there was never a reason to trade him until now. It also seems as though by the time Machado was a safe fixture in the O’s lineup, his value was sky-high, and he was close enough to free agency that an extension didn’t make sense for him (or his agent). While it remains to be seen whether Baltimore will actually end up dealing Machado, Meoli’s piece sheds some light on a tough set of circumstances for the Orioles.
  • The Giants and Reds have remained active in talks about a trade that would send Billy Hamilton to San Francisco, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The Reds have reportedly shown interest in Heliot Ramos, who is largely considered to be the Giants’ best prospect (he credits The Athletic with first report of this news). Hamilton, of course, is regarded as one of the best defenders in the game, and also creates a lot of runs with his speed alone. His career .298 on-base percentage is widely regarded as his achilles heel, but he could still provide plenty of value as an elite center fielder in AT&T Park’s spacious outfield. A couple months back, I wrote about the trade market for Hamilton, noting that the Giants were the best match for his services.

Taking Inventory: Chicago White Sox

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The White Sox haven’t been shy about blowing up their major league team lately. Within the past 13 months, GM Rick Hahn has shipped out nearly half the players who were on the club’s 25-man roster at the end of the 2016 season. Most notably, Chicaco was able to land killer hauls for Chris Sale, Adam Eaton and Jose Quintana.

The teardown has resulted in a tidal wave of incredible young talent. Yoan Moncada, Carson Fulmer, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez are already playing at the MLB level, and the club has three top 25 overall prospects still waiting in the wings. However, as one might imagine, the club is still not ready to contend. Player development isn’t always linear, and it will take at least a couple of years for the newfound cavalry to arrive from the farm system, let alone find success in the majors. As such, the White Sox are likely to continue trading away major league pieces with limited team control in order to add talent they can count on during their next window of contention.

Here’s a list of remaining assets that the South Siders might consider moving in the coming months…

Two Years of Control

Jose Abreu, 1B ($17.9MM projected arb salary): Since coming to Chicago from Cuba, Abreu has been an offensive force for the White Sox, evidenced by his .301/.359/.524 batting line and 139 wRC+ with the organization. He’s averaged 31 homers and 665 plate appearances across his four major league seasons, making him one of the most reliable offensive players in the game. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently profiled his trade market, listing the Red Sox, Rangers and Rockies among his potential suitors. Abreu’s expensive salary (which will likely get another hefty boost in 2019) limits his trade value, but there’s still a clear surplus here. A crowded first base market complicates things a bit, but he could still draw plenty of interest from other clubs.

Avisail Garcia, OF ($6.7MM projected arb salary): Garcia enjoyed the best season of his career in 2017 after shedding some weight during the 2016-2017 offseason. The right-handed-hitting outfielder was in contention for the AL batting title for most of the year (thanks in part to a .392 BABIP), and was worth 4.2 fWAR overall. A while back, I broke down his hypothetical trade market, listing the Indians, Rockies and Diamondbacks as potential landing spots.

Sep 10, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox designated hitter Avisail Garcia (26) hits a single during the fourth inning against the Kansas City Royals at U.S. Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

Rival organizations will obviously be skeptical about Garcia’s ability to repeat this performance considering his career 90 wRC+ prior to last season. Oddly, his hard hit rate and average exit velocity were basically in line with his 2016 figures. Still, it would be irresponsible for teams to write his 2017 season as entirely a fluke; Garcia did trade a few ground balls for fly balls and improve his contact rate, after all.

Longer-Term Assets

Nate Jones, RHP ($3.95MM salary for 2018, $545K club option for 2019, $3.75MM club option for 2020, $4.25MM club option for 2021. $1.25MM buyout on 2020-2021 options): A quick look at Jones’ numbers since his return from Tommy John surgery makes his contract look like a steal, particularly considering the lucrative deals given out to relievers so far this offseason. However, the righty reliever is highly unlikely to be traded this offseason after missing most of 2017 due to nerve repositioning surgery. He’ll likely need to reestablish his value before the White Sox can move him. A return to his 2016 form, however, would put Jones in the upper echelon of MLB relievers, and send his trade value through the roof.

Yolmer Sanchez, 2B ($2.1 projected arb salary for 2018): Formerly known as Carlos Sanchez, the switch-hitting second baseman rebranded himself in 2017. While it may have created moments of confusion for more casual White Sox fans, they’re just fine it that considering his improvements on the field. This past season, Sanchez hit .267/.319/.413 while playing excellent defense at the keystone. The 25-year-old Venezuela native was worth 8 defensive runs saved in 620 innings and ranked second in UZR/150 among MLB second baseman (minimum 500 innings). With four years of team control remaining, it’s certainly possible that Sanchez could be around for the next competitive White Sox team. However, he could yield plenty of value in a trade.

Carlos Rodon, LHP ($2MM projected arb salary for 2018): In all seriousness, Rodon probably won’t be traded any time soon. After an injury-plagued 2017 season that ended with shoulder surgery, no team will likely be willing to give up the prospects it would take to pry him out of Chicago’s hands. However, he’s on this list simply for the possibility that he could reestablish value prior to the coming season’s trade deadline. While the former number three overall pick might miss a portion of 2018, he comes with enormous upside. With the market for pitching being what it is, trading Rodon could provide an enormous boost to an already-strong farm system. Of course, the White Sox would need to be overwhelmed by an offer in order to consider moving him, as they can still retain him through 2021. Still, the club was content to move Jose Quintana at last year’s deadline, so Rodon is at least worth a mention on this list.

Salary Dump Candidates

James Shields, RHP ($21MM salary for 2018, $16MM club option for 2019 with a $2MM buyout): Any trade involving Shields would probably involve the White Sox sending some money along with him. The right-hander has an ERA well over 5.00 since coming to Chicago, and has walked over four batters per nine innings pitched during that time. His numbers in five September starts this past season were more palatable, however, and it’s worth noting that the White Sox are only on the hook for about half of Shields’ 2018 salary. Perhaps some team will be willing to take a chance on him as a back-of-the-rotation innings eater. Either way, he’s a one-year piece; his 2019 club option is highly unlikely to be exercised.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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