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Orioles Notes: Machado, Rule 5 Draft, Relievers, Catching, Pena

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It remains unlikely that the Orioles will trade Manny Machado at all, and while the Phillies certainly have interest in the star third baseman, they know they’re probably not an ideal fit if the O’s did shop Machado, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets.  With Machado only under contract through the 2018 season, it doesn’t make sense for the rebuilding Phillies to make a move for him right now.  As NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury notes, the Phils could just wait until next winter to pursue Machado in free agency.  That way, he costs just money, whereas trying to trade for him now would cost both money (if a contract extension can be worked out) and several prospects.

Some more rumblings out of Camden Yards…

  • Speaking of a link between the Orioles and Phillies, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes that Baltimore could consider Phillies left-handed pitching prospect Austin Davis in Thursday’s Rule 5 Draft.  A 12th-round pick in the 2014 amateur draft, Davis has a 3.07 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 2.71 K/BB rate over 228 2/3 minor league innings, none above the Double-A level.  The O’s have frequently mined the Rule 5 Draft for young talent, including taking both Anthony Santander and Aneury Tavarez last year.
  • Davis could fit the Orioles’ desire for another southpaw option in the bullpen.  Team executive VP Dan Duquette told Kubatko and other reporters that a hard-throwing lefty reliever is “on our radar” as an offseason need.  With Zach Britton closing, the Orioles’ other left-handed pen options include Richard Bleier and Donnie Hart, both of whom “are more finesse from the left side,” Duquette said.  Kubatko figures Bleier is a good bet for a bullpen job in 2018, so Hart could be Triple-A depth if the Orioles did get another southpaw.
  • The O’s want to add a veteran to their catching mix of Caleb Joseph, Chance Sisco and Austin Wynns.  Duquette said the team had interest in re-signing catcher Francisco Pena but revealed that “he’s going to sign with somebody else.”  Pena only appeared in 19 MLB games for Baltimore over the last two seasons, though was held in high regard as a depth option due to his strong defense.  Pena was designated for assignment and outrighted off the Orioles’ roster three times in 2017, and he became a free agent after the season.
  • Minor league left-handers Keegan Akin and Alex Wells have both received trade interest from other teams, Duquette said (hat tip to PressBoxOnline.com’s Rich Dubroff).  Akin and Wells respectively ranked 8th and 16th on MLB.com’s list of the top 30 Orioles prospects; Baseball America recently cited Wells as owning the best control of any pitcher in the farm system, though neither he or Akin made BA’s list of top 10 Baltimore minor leaguers.  The O’s aren’t considered to be particularly deep in young talent, particularly on the pitching side, so it would be a little surprising to see them part with Akin or Wells unless they can get very good value for either southpaw.

NL West News: Rodney, Bruce, Duggar, Cutch, Giants, Reynolds, Dodgers

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Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen told reporters (including the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro) that his team has kept in touch with Fernando Rodney.  The veteran reliever was expected to personally attend the Winter Meetings to speak to clubs about a contract, though it isn’t known whether the D’Backs were one of those teams.  Rodney signed a one-year, $2.75MM deal with Arizona last winter and turned into a bargain signing for the team, recording 39 saves to go along with a 4.23 ERA, 10.57 K/9 and 52.2% grounder rate.

Some more from around the NL West…

  • The Giants have some level of interest in Jay Bruce, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.  The slugger is known to be on the target list for at least four other teams, though it remains to be seen if the bidding will be high enough for Bruce to land his desired five-year contract.  A right-handed bat would be a better fit within San Francisco’s heavily left-handed lineup, though Bruce would check a couple of boxes for the Giants as a power hitter and defensively-capable right fielder.
  • From that same Schulman piece, the Giants are impressed enough with prospect Steven Duggar that “it does affect how we view addressing that [center field] need this offseason,” GM Bobby Evans said.  “It does give us a mindset more short term.”  This would seem to lessen the chance that the Giants acquire names like Lorenzo Cain or Billy Hamilton, who have been both been linked to the team in rumors.  Andrew McCutchen has also been mentioned as a possibility for the Giants, yet Schulman writes that “he is not viewed as a priority,” even though the Pirates outfielder is only under contract through the 2018 season and would seem to fit as a short-term answer.  Duggar is expected to start the season in Triple-A but would seem to be on pace for a big league debut next year and potentially a regular role by 2019.
  • A big bat for third base or the corner outfield is the priority for the Giants at the Winter Meetings, Schulman tweets, and the team may have to sacrifice defense in order to land that type of hitter.  San Francisco also wants to address the bullpen, though that will be dealt with later in the offseason.
  • The Rockies are interested in re-signing Mark Reynolds, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter).  GM Jeff Bridich has suggested that first base (or any type of bat) isn’t necessarily a priority for the team, though that hasn’t stopped the Rox from checking in on the likes of Carlos Santana or Jay Bruce.  Reynolds would be a more affordable and familiar option for Colorado at first base, returning for a third year at Coors Field after hitting .274/.354/.471 with 44 homers over 1034 PA in 2016-17.  Despite those slightly above-average hitting numbers, however, Reynolds has only been worth a total of 1.0 fWAR over those two seasons due to his strikeouts and lack of defensive or baserunning value.
  • It is “fair to say” that the Dodgers’ 2018 payroll will be lower than $237MM, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick and other media.  Exceeding that figure would balloon the team’s luxury tax rate to 95 percent and drop their position in the June amateur draft back by 10 spots.  Counting arbitration projections and money owed to players no longer on the roster, the Dodgers’ payroll stands at over $208MM for next season, so they do have some room to make upgrades though it seems unlikely that they’d take on any major salary commitments without first unloading some of their existing big contracts.
  • Also from Friedman, the Dodgers are prioritizing bullpen additions.  Starting pitching doesn’t seem to be a need, as Friedman likes their current rotation depth and wants to give younger pitchers “a soft landing spot in the big leagues to go through their acclimation process.  We have a talented enough group to ride that out a little bit.”  As Gurnick notes, this makes it seem unlikely that L.A. would re-sign Yu Darvish.  Of course, the Dodgers did make a push for one very notable starter in Shohei Ohtani, though that was a unique circumstance due to Ohtani’s minimal costs.

Angels Notes: Ohtani, Rotation, Bench, Longoria

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Some items from Anaheim…

  • Shohei Ohtani received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his right elbow in October, Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci reports.  The treatment was simply “a preventative measure,” in the words of Ohtani’s agent Nez Balelo, who added that PRP injections are commonly used in such a fashion in Japanese baseball.  Teams were made aware of the treatment during Ohtani’s recruitment process, and the two-way star underwent a physical to confirm his health to any interested clubs.  One team official said that the PRP information “didn’t change the equation” about Ohtani’s value and potential.
  • The Angels are still weighing the possibility of using a six-man rotation next year, though GM Billy Eppler told reporters (including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register) that they’ll make their decision before Spring Training.  Using a sixth starter would provide extra rest for the rotation, which is no small concern given how most of the Halos’ starters have undergone significant arm injuries in recent years.  In Ohtani’s case, pitching in a six-man rotation would more closely resemble his regular schedule in Japan, while also allowing him more time to recover from getting at-bats as either a DH or outfielder when he isn’t on the mound.  Eppler suggested that Los Angeles could also use J.C. Ramirez as a reliever and frequent spot starter, rather than a full-on six-man rotation.
  • The club still plans on a seven-man bullpen, so if the six-man rotation idea comes to fruition, that will leave the Halos with 13 pitchers on the roster and one less spot available for a bench player.  With a shorter bench a possibility, the Angels will be focused on adding a versatile player that could fill more than one of their remaining needs (backup shortstop, fourth outfielder, and right-handed hitting platoon third baseman).  “I always put a premium on flexibility, but it might be a little bit more now,” Eppler said.  Fletcher suggests that Eduardo Nunez or Freddy Galvis could be fits for the Angels in terms of handling multiple duties.
  • “Some industry chatter” has identified the Angels as a potential trade partner with the Rays for Evan Longoria, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.  It isn’t yet clear if the Rays will even be shopping their longtime star, though if they did, it would take a shift in the Halos’ thinking for them to pursue Longoria.  Beyond the financial cost (Longoria is owed $81MM through the 2022 season), the Angels were planning to use Luis Valbuena and a right-handed platoon partner to handle the hot corner, while focusing more attention on their more pressing need at second base.  Adding Longoria as the everyday third baseman would create a logjam for first base/DH playing time between Valbuena, Ohtani, Albert Pujols, and C.J. Cron, though potentially Valbuena or Cron could be dealt, maybe even as part of a Longoria trade package.

Cubs Notes: Epstein, Davis, Bullpen, Schwarber, Arrieta, Ohtani, Stanton

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Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein met with reporters (including The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma) on Monday to discuss a number of hot stove-related subjects.  The highlights…

  • Epstein alluded to the team’s agreement with Brandon Morrow without officially making a confirmation, saying the Cubs were “pretty close” to the signing.  The pitcher in question was described as someone the Cubs would be “comfortable” using as a closer, though “he’s the type of team player that would be willing to take any role depending on what the rest of the team looks like.”
  • In that vein, the Cubs could acquire a more established closer, and a reunion with Wade Davis is still a possibility.  Epstein said he planned to meet with Davis’ agent either during the Winter Meetings or just after.  Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times tweeted earlier today that the Cubs were open to bringing Davis back if an “affordable” deal could be worked out.  MLBTR predicted Davis for a four-year, $60MM free agent contract this winter, which might fall outside of the Cubs’ comfort zone if they can land a less-pricey arm to further reinforce their bullpen.
  • Sharma reports that free agents Bryan Shaw, Anthony Swarzak, and Jake McGee are also on the Cubs’ radar as they continue their wide-ranging search for bullpen help.
  • Epstein downplayed any Kyle Schwarber trade rumors, saying that “he’s always been someone that teams have had an interest in, I guess.  But we have probably the most interest.”  Reports from earlier this week identified the Red Sox as a team interested in the young slugger.
  • The Cubs will stay in touch with Scott Boras about Jake Arrieta in case there’s any path to the free agent righty returning to Wrigley Field.  It has been widely assumed that Arrieta would be signing elsewhere this winter, as the Cubs have already signed Tyler Chatwood to join Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester, and Jose Quintana in the rotation, and have been heavily linked to Alex Cobb.  Still, given the number of other teams pursuing Cobb, it makes sense that Chicago would remain open to Arrieta, even if his price tag would be significantly higher.
  • Of course, the Cubs almost made another big rotation splash as they were one of the seven finalists for Shohei Ohtani’s services.  Epstein was proud of his team’s presentation to Ohtani and came away impressed by how the Japanese star handled himself in meetings with Cubs officials.  Even getting into the final seven was an accomplishment in Epstein’s eyes, as the Cubs were neither a West Coast team or an AL team that could offer Ohtani DH at-bats.
  • Chicago was also one of the four teams Giancarlo Stanton would’ve waived his no-trade clause to join, though it doesn’t seem talks got very far between the Cubs and Marlins before Stanton was dealt to the Yankees.  “There wasn’t much interaction given the makeup of our roster, our future payroll commitments and some plans that we have,” Epstein said.  “Great player and great opportunity, but not necessarily the right one for us at the time.”

NL Central Notes: Gregerson, Cubs, Neshek, Cards, Suarez, Pirates

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Before agreeing to a deal with the Cardinals, Luke Gregerson also received an offer from the Cubs, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.  Chicago has already landed Brandon Morrow and has been aggressively looking at several other relief options this winter, so it isn’t surprising that Gregerson was yet another name on their list of targets.  The Cardinals are also continuing to scour the reliever market, though Goold reports that they didn’t have interest in veteran Pat Neshek, who has agreed to a new deal with the Phillies.

Here’s more from around the NL Central…

  • In another piece from Goold, Cardinals president of baseball ops John Mozeliak discussed his team’s first day at the Winter Meetings, saying that he mostly focused on trade talks, including in-person meetings with two unnamed teams.  The Cards are known to be shopping their outfield surplus, with Goold writing that the team is looking for a two-for-one outfielder swap to gain an everyday bat.
  • Eugenio Suarez would want an extension of at least six years and worth more than $45MM in guaranteed money, a source tells Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer.  Suarez is just entering his first of three arbitration-eligible seasons (MLBTR projects him for a $4.4MM salary in 2018), so given the timing and his strong 2017 season, he stands out as a potential long-term piece for the Reds.  A six-year deal wouldn’t necessarily be an issue for the club, Buchanan writes, though the source feels the Reds’ stance in contract talks will focus on Suarez gaining financial security for his family now rather than risk an injury or drop in performance.  There’s also the possibility that Cincy could look to trade Suarez if an extension can’t be worked out, though Buchanan doubts a trade would happen this winter.
  • The Reds are currently more focused on adding relievers than starters, president of baseball operations Dick Williams told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon and other reporters.  “I do think we’ll find some good pitching and spend some money just to supplement the pitching a little bit,” Williams said.  “Ideally, we’d maintain some flexibility there as to how guys are used. We think we have more starting pitching, guys that have the ability to stick as starters.”
  • While the Pirates are on the lookout for left-handed relievers, GM Neal Huntington suggested to reporters (including Elizabeth Bloom of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) that the club could also fill that need internally in the form of Steven Brault.  The Bucs could explore using Brault or other starters that don’t win rotation jobs in the pen, with Brault perhaps capable of either a LOOGY specialist role or a multi-inning role.  While adding a southpaw reliever would be a “perfect world” result for the team, Huntington said any type of quality reliever would do: “we’d rather have a good right-hander than a mediocre left-hander.”

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/12/17

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Here are the latest minor league moves from around baseball, with the newest transactions at the top of the post…

  • The Mariners have re-signed infielder Gordon Beckham to a new minor league deal, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets.  Beckham spent 2017 on another minor league contract with Seattle and spent the majority of the season at the Triple-A level, appearing in just 11 games in an Mariners uniform.  The light-hitting veteran utilityman will continue to provide the M’s with some infield depth in the minors, though it seems unlikely Beckham will get much time on the 25-man roster unless injury strikes.
  • The Angels signed outfielder Rymer Liriano to a minors deal, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports.  Once ranked as a top-60 prospect in baseball during his time in the Padres farm system, Liriano has a .274/.346/.432 slash line over 3599 career PA in the minors but he has appeared just sparingly in the majors, posting a .580 OPS over 167 PA with the Padres and White Sox.  Forty-six of those plate appearances came last season for Chicago, as Liriano got his first taste of big league action since 2014.
  • The Dodgers have agreed to sign Colombian right-hander Guillermo Zuniga to a deal with a $205K bonus, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports (Twitter link).  Zuniga was one of the 12 former Braves prospects who were declared free agents in the wake of MLB’s investigation into signing improprieties within Atlanta’s front office.  Each of the other 29 teams received an extra $200K in international bonus pool funds to sign any of these players, so the Dodgers only slightly dipped into their pre-existing pool money for Zuniga.  The Braves originally signed Zuniga, 19, to a $350K bonus.

Chris Archer Drawing Plenty Of Interest

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Rays right-hander Chris Archer is drawing widespread interest early in the Winter Meetings, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. The Braves, Brewers, Twins, Cardinals and Cubs are some of the teams eyeing Archer, according to Topkin.

Given that Archer’s one of the most valuable trade chips in the game, his popularity around the majors isn’t a surprise. He’d surely bring back a significant haul in a deal, thereby helping the Rays improve an already strong farm system, but it’s unclear whether he’ll be among the veterans the payroll-cutting club parts with this offseason. If the long-struggling Rays opt for a rebuild, which they may have to strongly consider in the wake of the division-rival Yankees’ acquisition of Giancarlo Stanton, it could indeed bring about the end of the 29-year-old Archer’s tenure in Tampa Bay.

Archer has been with the Rays since they acquired him from the Cubs – who, as mentioned, seem to want him back – in a 2011 trade centering on righty Matt Garza. He turned into a front-line starter in 2013, his first full major league season, and has pitched to a 3.63 ERA/3.46 FIP combination with 9.72 K/9 against 2.94 BB/9 in 967 career innings. Archer’s a workhorse, too, having made no fewer than 32 starts four years in a row.

Archer’s now fresh off his third straight 200-inning season, in which he racked up 201 frames with an ERA (4.07) that doesn’t do justice to his performance. After all, the flamethrowing Archer finished behind only Chris Sale, Robbie Ray and the reigning Cy Young winners – Max Scherzer and Corey Kluber – in K/9 (11.15). He also walked a respectable 2.69 batters per nine and placed seventh among starters in swinging-strike rate (13.4 percent).

Archer’s track record on the mound is clearly enticing, and the fact that his contract is among the league’s most team-friendly pacts significantly adds to his value. He’s controllable for the next four years for $34MM, including club options for 2020 and ’21. If the Rays do make an earnest bid to move him, then, it’s likely to spark a bidding war.

Rockies Could Add Multiple Relievers

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DEC. 11: The Rockies’ interest in Davis continues, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (on Twitter). Davis is one of “numerous” possibilities for the Rockies, who are trying to add multiple relievers, per Rosenthal. They were interested in re-signing Pat Neshek before he agreed to join the Phillies on Monday, Rosenthal adds.

DEC. 2: With Greg Holland currently on the open market, the closer-needy Rockies have shown interest in fellow free agent Wade Davis and spoken with the Orioles about Zach Britton, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported earlier this week (Twitter link).

Colorado’s interest in both players isn’t particularly surprising when you consider that Holland and two other key members of its 2017 bullpen – Jake McGee and Pat Neshek – are unsigned. Thanks in part to those three, the Rockies’ bullpen enjoyed a seismic turnaround from 2016 to ’17, thus helping the club to its first playoff season since 2009. With Holland, McGee and Neshek on the market, the Rockies’ relief corps looks decidedly less imposing than it did late in the season, leading general manager Jeff Bridich to acknowledge last month that it’s going to be a key area of focus this winter.

Between Davis and Britton, the former would require a much bigger commitment from a financial standpoint. The 32-year-old Davis was among the game’s best relievers with the Rays, Royals and Cubs from 2012-17 and now stands as arguably the premier bullpen piece in free agency. MLBTR projects a four-year, $60MM payday for the right-handed Davis, who rejected the Cubs’ qualifying offer at the outset of the offseason. The Rockies would only lose their third-highest 2018 draft pick if they were to sign Davis, though, as the team’s a revenue-sharing recipient that did not exceed the competitive balance tax last season.

Britton, a southpaw, is only under control for another year – at a projected $12.2MM – and should be popular in trade rumors this offseason as a result. GM Dan Duquette suggested this week that the Orioles are inclined to keep Britton as they seek a bounce-back year in 2018, but he also noted that “there’s a lot of interest” in the soon-to-be 30-year-old. Britton is coming off a somewhat disappointing season, however, despite a 2.89 ERA and a 72.6 percent groundball rate across 37 1/3 innings. Britton dealt with forearm issues, leading to a drop in velocity, and posted 6.99 K/9 against 4.34 BB/9. He was at 9.94 and 2.42 in those categories during a 2016 campaign that saw him record a jaw-dropping .54 ERA over 67 frames and garner American League Cy Young consideration.

With Baseball America’s 15th-ranked farm system, the Rockies likely have enough in the pipeline to put together a package for Britton if the Orioles are willing to move him. But there are plenty of viable late-game options available in free agency if a trade doesn’t come together. In addition to Davis, the Rockies have thus far shown reported interest in Holland – although, as a qualifying recipient, his departure would net them a high draft pick – as well as Brandon Kintzler.

AL Notes: Mariners, Tigers, Castellanos, Yanks, Jays, Donaldson, Rays

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The Mariners’ spirited attempt to sign Shohei Ohtani ended in heartbreak when the Japanese ace/slugger signed with the division-rival Angels last week. Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto acknowledged that he was disappointed in the outcome when speaking about Ohtani’s decision Monday. He was gracious in defeat, though, telling Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times and other reporters that he’s “happy for” Ohtani and expects he’ll be “a great fit” in Anaheim.

With the Ohtani dream dead, the Mariners have been monitoring the free agent market for pitching, Dipoto revealed. “We have a sense that the market is starting to pick up. I feel like we are in a deal making zone,” he said (Twitter links here). Along with searching for pitching, Dipoto is looking to trade some of the international bonus pool money the Mariners acquired when they were trying to increase their chances to sign Ohtani, Greg Johns of MLB.com tweets. Dipoto also suggested that there won’t be anymore big additions to a Mariners position player group that just landed Dee Gordon. Instead, any new pickups are likely to come via waivers, minor league deals or the Rule 5 draft.

More from the American League:

  • The Tigers engaged in contract extension talks with outfielder/third baseman Nicholas Castellanos’ agent after the season, but they haven’t had any discussions since, general manager Al Avila told reporters Monday. It looks unlikely the two sides will reach an agreement, per Jason Beck of MLB.com (Twitter link). As things stand, the soon-to-be 26-year-old Castellanos is controllable for just two more seasons. The former top prospect will make a projected $7.6MM in arbitration in 2018, when he’ll try for a third straight above-average offensive showing. Castellanos, who slugged a career-best 26 home runs last season, has batted .277/.325/.493 with 44 HRs in 1,112 plate appearances since 2016.
  • The Yankees expressed interest in free agent Carlos Santana after Ohtani turned them down and before they acquired Giancarlo Stanton, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports (Twitter link). Now, Stanton’s presence removes any need for the Yanks to add another hitter, meaning he won’t end up with them, as Davidoff notes.
  • Even without Stanton, New York finished 15 games ahead of division-rival Toronto in 2017. Nevertheless, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins iterated Monday that they’re aiming to rebound, not rebuild, next season. Atkins told reporters, including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, that he’s focused on putting together the “best possible team.” That would likely mean retaining star third baseman Josh Donaldson as he enters a contract year, which the Jays seem inclined to do. “It’s hard to imagine making (the Jays) better without Josh,” Atkins noted (Twitter link).
  • On the other hand, the Stanton deal may hasten a rebuild for the Rays, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The Rays would be wise to take that route, Topkin posits, thanks in part to the fact that New York and Boston are in their division. Additionally, the payroll-challenged club already looked primed to trade notable veterans even before the Yankees got Stanton. On the heels of a fourth straight sub-.500 season, the Rays will also lose righty Alex Cobb to free agency, which will make it all the more difficult for them to compete in the near term, Topkin points out.

Marwin Gonzalez Hires Scott Boras

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Astros utilityman Marwin Gonzalez has switched representation and is now a client of Scott Boras, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN reports (on Twitter). Gonzalez’s hiring of Boras comes on the heels of teammate Dallas Keuchel’s decision to join up with baseball’s most famous agent. Both players are scheduled to hit free agency next offseason.

The 28-year-old Gonzalez, a standout with last season’s World Series winners, took an indirect route to prominence. The Venezuelan signed with the Cubs in 2005 and later had an extremely brief stint with the Red Sox, who selected him in the 2011 Rule 5 draft before trading him to the Astros that day. Gonzalez debuted in Houston in 2012 and struggled over his first two major league seasons, batting a miserable .227/.266/.323 in 441 plate appearances as part of a pair of 50-some-win teams.

The rebuilding Astros began making real progress in the win-loss column during a 70-victory 2013 season, when Gonzalez started showing he could be a legitimate contributor. Since then, the switch-hitter has slashed a solid .271/.321/.432 in 1,935 plate appearances, including an excellent .303/.377/.530 with 23 home runs in 515 PAs last season. Gonzalez has added to his value by logging between 78 and 252 appearances at second base, left field (his spot during the Astros’ title run), third base, first base and shortstop.

Both the Astros and Gonzalez and will try to replicate their 2017 success next season, though there’s some skepticism about the latter’s chances. Good fortune on batted balls was a key factor in Gonzalez’s impressive offensive outburst, as Statcast indicates his actual weighted on-base average (.387) far surpassed his expected wOBA (.320). Gonzalez’s lifetime wOBA happens to be .320, and returning to that level next season certainly wouldn’t be an ideal outcome in a contract year. The Astros could attempt to extend Gonzalez before then, but for now, he’s slated to make a reasonable $5.125MM in 2018.

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