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Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Doc, Altuve, Stanton, Jays, Tribe, Mets, Bucs, Brewers

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This week in baseball blogs:

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Poll: Which Of These Prospects Is Most Likely To Be Traded?

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During the offseason, rumors about major league players dominate the headlines. Fans and analysts alike discuss potential landing spots for major league free agents and trade candidates. With so much of the focus on big name MLB players, the subject of which top prospects could change hands falls into the background.

The players below are some of the most valuable trade assets in the game who have not yet lost their rookie eligibility. MLB Pipeline considers each of them to be among the top 25 prospects in baseball. They all play for teams that are firmly in “win now mode”. Indeed, all five of them belong to teams that finished with a top four record in baseball last season. It’s safe to say that, were they to dangle their respective prospects as trade bait, each of those teams could fill nearly any need on their big league roster.

Victor Robles, OF (No. 2 Overall Prospect): Nationals

The Nationals signed Victor Robles out of the Dominican Republic at age 16, and he’s met little resistance throughout his development. The Nats promoted him to the majors for the first time in September of 2017; he even made the club’s NLDS roster. In his 24 regular season at-bats, Robles managed six hits, including three for extra bases. The Nationals are in need of another starting pitcher, and the 20-year-old outfielder could easily bring back an elite arm. Washington’s outfield picture for 2018 seems reasonably clear, with Adam Eaton, Michael Taylor and Bryce Harper all under contract and Brian Goodwin as a solid fourth outfielder option. However, Robles is practically major league-ready right now, so it might not make much sense to trade him when he could easily contribute this season. eIt’s especially important to note that Eaton, Taylor and Harper all dealt with injuries last season. With that in mind, the Nationals might prefer to deal their second-best prospect, outfielder Juan Soto, instead.

Kyle Tucker, OF (No. 7 Overall Prospect): Astros

Houston took Tucker out of H.B. Plant High School in Tampa, FL with the fifth pick in the 2015 draft. The young outfielder proceeded to rocket through the club’s minor-league system, reaching the Double-A level midway through 2017. Tucker’s hit tool is one of the best among minor-leaguers, but the Astros already have other left-handed outfield options at the major league level. Josh Reddick and Derek Fisher both bat primarily from the left side, while George Springer, Marwin Gonzalez and Jake Marisnick figure to be ahead of Tucker on the depth chart heading into 2018 as well. That’s not to say that Tucker isn’t more talented than those players, but it seems like a lot would have to happen for him to stumble into significant playing time next season. On the other hand, the Astros don’t have a clear hole on the major league roster outside of the bullpen, and Tucker is far too valuable to trade for a reliever. The organization has also reportedly been stingy about trading any of their top prospects lately, so perhaps it’s unlikely we’ll see him moved.

Francisco Mejia, C (No. 13 Overall Prospect): Indians

Mejia’s development has been a somewhat slow process; the Indians signed him out of the Dominican Republic all the way back in 2012. However, he’s vaulted up prospect lists after incredible success across the past two seasons, including a 50-game hit streak during the 2016 campaign. The best catching prospect in baseball is only 21 and has an elite hit tool from both sides of the plate. Cleveland decided to give him a bit of seasoning at the major league level this past September, which seems to imply that they think he could be close to MLB-ready. The Indians already have catchers Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez under contract for the foreseeable future, so Mejia could be a good candidate to be exchanged for help at first base if Carlos Santana signs elsewhere. But the Indians are also testing Mejia out at third base in the Arizona Fall League, a position he could more easily claim on the Tribe’s roster at some point in 2018.

Triston McKenzie, RHP (No. 20 Overall Prospect): Indians

After McKenzie struck out 157 batters in 91 innings during his senior year in high school, Cleveland selected the right-hander in Competitive Balance Round A of the 2015 draft. The lanky 20-year-old stands at 6’5″ and throws his fastball in the low 90s, though most scouts believe he could pick up even more velocity as he grows stronger. McKenzie struck out double-digit batters in six different games at the High-A level in 2017, including a 14-strikeout effort on May 9th. Overall, the Royal Palm Beach High School product pitched to a 3.45 ERA (and a 2.67 FIP) while punching out 11.71 batters per nine innings. With the Tribe’s window of contention seemingly at its peak, and McKenzie highly unlikely to reach the majors in 2018, the righty could potentially end up being an excellent trade chip. Even if the young righty were MLB-ready, the Indians already have a stacked rotation that will include Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and two of Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin and Mike Clevinger. McKenzie could be dangled for help at first base (should Santana depart), or elite bullpen help such as Brad Hand or Felipe Rivero.

Alex Verdugo, OF (No. 23 Overall Prospect): Dodgers

The Dodgers took Verdugo in the second round of the 2014 draft, and the left-handed outfielder has done well at every level of the minors. His power isn’t prolific and his speed is average, but his hit tool is excellent. Verdugo is patient at the plate and is great at hitting to the opposite field. While fellow Dodgers prospect Walker Buehler is excluded from this list due to his proximity to the majors and a fairly clear opening in LA’s rotation, Verdugo could be more of a luxury than a vital asset. Chris Taylor and Yasiel Puig are set to man center field and right field, respectively, and it’s unclear whether the Dodgers are ready or willing to give up on Joc Pederson yet, especially following a strong postseason performance. Verdugo could potentially be used to land a strong second baseman. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that he could be used to acquire a more proven outfielder, either. Still, the Dodgers have four other top 100 prospects outside of Buehler and Verdugo. Even if they attempt to make a blockbuster trade during the offseason, they might prefer to move someone a bit further away from the majors.

What do you think? Which of these top 25 prospects is most likely to be with another organization by the time spring training rolls around? (Poll link for app users)

Which Of These Top Prospects Is Most Likely To Be Traded?
Alex Verdugo (Dodgers) 33.90% (4,669 votes)
None of these prospects has any chance of being traded 24.80% (3,415 votes)
Victor Robles (Nationals) 12.52% (1,724 votes)
Kyle Tucker (Astros) 12.05% (1,659 votes)
Triston McKenzie (Indians) 9.30% (1,281 votes)
Francisco Mejia (Indians) 7.43% (1,023 votes)
Total Votes: 13,771

Giancarlo Stanton Rumors: Saturday

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On Friday, we learned that the Marlins have had preliminary talks about outfielder Giancarlo Stanton with four MLB teams. As more rumors involving the prolific slugger swirl about today, we’ll keep track of them here.

  • Talks between the Marlins and Red Sox involving Stanton “may be heating up”, according to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. His source tells him that the Red Sox are “definitely in play”. Spencer also mentions that Stanton’s incredible power would play well at Fenway Park, adding that Boston hit the fewest home runs of any MLB team in 2017. The Red Sox certainly seem like a reasonable fit for many other reasons as well, and Spencer lists a small handful in his piece. They’ve been said to be interested in spending more money, even to the point of exceeding the luxury tax, while it has been said that Stanton prefers to play near a coast. President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski is no stranger to making deals with the Marlins, having helped engineer a blockbuster trade to bring Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers back in 2007.

Quick Hits: Osiel Rodriguez, Gloves, Framing

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15-year-old right-hander Osiel Rodriguez may be the top international pitching prospect in the 2018 class, Ben Badler of Baseball America writes.  The young Cuban pitcher threw 96 MPH at the Nations Baseball Showcase this past Thursday, striking out three of the five hitters he faced while retiring the other two on ground balls. Rodriguez threw 13 of his 17 pitches for strikes at the showcase. Badler notes that Rodriguez led Cuba’s 15U league with a 0.39 ERA across 69 innings in 2016 while striking out 127 hitters. He is eligible to sign beginning on July 2nd of 2018 and will certainly garner heavy attention from MLB teams.

Some other items across MLB…

  • In another piece at Baseball America, Tim Newcomb sheds some light on the work of Ryan Smith (product manager for Wilson baseball gloves) to continually evolve the “colors, patterns, lengths, designs or features” of gloves. The trends are defined mostly by the needs of MLB’s top players. “There is no way we could be as good as we are if we didn’t have pros so in tune with their glove working on their craft daily and giving us feedback,” Smith says. The piece mentions Todd Frazier, Dustin Pedroia and Ivan Rodriguez as players who have had particular influence on Wilson’s products.
  • Framing data is flooding baseball, Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs opines. The standard deviation between framing runs accrued by MLB teams has declined significantly over the past ten seasons, as Sullivan shows us. Also in his piece are graphs depicting called strikes above average; graphs which show that year-to-year relationships are disintegrating. “A good framer in 2016 was still likely to look like a good framer in 2017, but that couldn’t be said with very much confidence. The data is getting increasingly random,” Sullivan writes. The piece is fascinating for anyone interested in advanced defensive statistics and baseball trends.

Featured image courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

East Notes: Mets, Red Sox, Orioles

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Following a 92-loss season, the Mets will reimagine the way they use their pitching staff, says Marc Carig of newsday.com. The so-called “philosophical shift” may in part be driven by the Mets’ recent hire of former Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway as their new manager. According to one of Carig’s sources, Mets starters not named Noah Syndergaard or Jacob deGrom may be shielded from facing lineups more than twice through the order, following a continuing trend throughout the league. In order to compensate for potentially fewer innnings from their starters, the Amazins plan to employ an eight man bullpen. The dramatic change in plans comes after the team posted a 5.01 combined ERA (the second-worst mark in the National League in 2017) despite watching deGrom finish as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. Carig lays out the opponent OPS for each Mets pitcher per times through the batting order as well.

More from baseball’s East division…

  • In a lengthy piece for the Providence Journal, Tim Britton urges against many reactionary moves suggested by Red Sox fans. The body of the article includes 24 fan suggestions for Dave Dombrowski that Britton sought out on Twitter. Among them are cases for why Boston shouldn’t trade for Giancarlo Stanton, why signing Eric Hosmer doesn’t make sense, and why they should neither shop David Price nor move him to the bullpen permanently. While many such suggestions from fans have obvious flaws in logic, Britton’s piece is well worth a read for his detailed perspective on each subject.
  • Too many strikeouts and too few walks plagued the Orioles once again in 2017, writes Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com. The team’s 23.0% strikeout rate ranked 5th-highest in the majors, while their 6.4% combined walk rate was the worst in the majors. That horrid walk rate was over two full percentage points below the major-league average. Among the strikeout culprits was first baseman Chris Davis, who led all qualifiers in baseball with a whopping 37.2% strikeout rate. Melewski noted that a quick turnaround in this category isn’t unheard of; the Astros went from having the AL’s worst strikeout rate in 2015 to the league’s best this past season en route to a World Series victory. The Orioles will hope they can follow that example to some extent and put more balls in play next season.

Central Notes: Santana, DeJong, Cubs

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Although outgoing Royal Eric Hosmer is a clear bet to take home the largest contract among first basemen this winter, Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs suspects that career Indians first baseman Carlos Santana will outperform Hosmer for at least the next three years. While Hosmer is younger than Santana and had a better 2017 season by fWAR, Sawchik notes that Santana’s primary skill (his batting eye) is a better bet to age well than any other skill that either player brings to the table. Hosmer has also posted negative fWAR totals in two of his major league seasons; something Santana has never done. Worth mentioning: Santana was worth a total of 21.2 fWAR from 2011-2017, while Hosmer was worth a mere 9.9.

Elsewhere across baseball’s central divisions…

  • The offseason for Cardinals’ shortstop Paul DeJong will be an interesting one. As CBS2’s Steve Overmyer reported from New York on Thursday, DeJong has joined renowned scientist Dr. Lawrence Rocks in a lab study about the effects of heat and weather on baseball flight distance. Early returns in the study seem to indicate that while baseballs are likely to travel shorter distances as temperatures get colder, they are also likely to travel shorter distances if temperatures increase past a certain point. “As you decrease temperature, you get less bounce, like an automobile tire on a very cold day – it’s a little more brittle,” Rocks said. “As you increase temperature, the elastomeres get a little mooshy; you get less bounce.”
  • While Cubs GM Jed Hoyer has declined to comment on his team’s pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago suggests a plan of attack for the team in trying to acquire the Japanese ace. While bringing an end to “The Curse” is no longer a selling point (as it may have been to Jon Lester and some others, according to Mooney), Chicago still has plenty to offer as a city. Hoyer will be working hard to put together a more attractive pitch to Ohtani and his agents than the other 29 MLB teams that will be vying for the two-way star’s services.

Angels Prioritizing Offensive Upgrades

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The Angels are not aiming to make a big splash in the pitching market this offseason, general manager Billy Eppler tells Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. While the team will be “keeping an eye open” on available starters and relievers, Eppler’s focus is on upgrading an offense that finished 22nd in the majors in runs last season.

The Angels will “look for value, similar to what we did last year,” with regard to pitchers, Eppler said. The Eppler-led Halos only handed out two guaranteed contracts to pitchers last winter – $5.75MM to swingman Jesse Chavez and $1MM to reliever Andrew Bailey – neither of which worked out as hoped. On the other hand, Los Angeles struck gold when it claimed reliever Blake Parker off waivers and signed fellow relievers Yusmeiro Petit and Bud Norris to minor league contracts. Only one of those three, Parker, remains under club control heading into next season. Eppler isn’t sure whether the Angels will bring either Petit or Norris back, per Fletcher, who notes that they already have most of their 2018 bullpen in place with Parker, Cam Bedrosian, Jose Alvarez, Keynan Middleton, Noe Ramirez and Blake Wood on hand.

The Angels also have a variety of in-house rotation possibilities in Garrett Richards, Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, Matt Shoemaker, Nick Tropeano, Parker Bridwell and J.C. Ramirez, leading to Eppler’s confidence that a big-money addition isn’t necessary (notably, Eppler wasn’t willing to discuss a potential Shohei Ohtani pursuit, as he’s technically not a free agent yet). Although injuries marred the seasons of Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Shoemaker, Ramirez and Tropeano (who didn’t pitch at all while recovering from 2016 Tommy John surgery), Fletcher relays that the only member of that group who hasn’t yet gotten medical clearance going into next year is Ramirez – whose 2017 ended in August on account of elbow soreness. The 29-year-old right-hander, who led all Angels holdovers in innings last season (142 1/3), will undergo an ultrasound on his elbow late this month, according to Fletcher.

While the Angels seem largely content with their pitchers, they could add at least one notable outsider to their group of position players, even after they managed to prevent left fielder Justin Upton from leaving in free agency. Along with Upton, center fielder Mike Trout, right fielder Kole Calhoun, shortstop Andrelton Simmons, designated hitter Albert Pujols and catcher Martin Maldonado figure to reprise their starting roles in 2018. That leaves the corner infield (either first or third, depending on where Luis Valbuena slots in) and second base ripe for upgrades.

The keystone looks like an especially big need, Fletcher observes, after Angels second basemen limped to a ghastly .207/.274/.318 batting line and a major league-worst 60 wRC+ last season. With Eppler looking for players who are adept at getting on base, previous trade target and current free agent Neil Walker (.362 OBP in 2017, .341 career) looks like someone who may pique the Angels’ interest, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk previously suggested when previewing their offseason in late October. And there are several possibilities LA could acquire via trade, including the Marlins’ Dee Gordon, whom it was interested in over the summer.

As for the corner infield, Eric Hosmer, Carlos Santana Logan Morrison, Yonder Alonso, Lucas Duda are at the top of the free agent class at first base (MLBTR projects the Angels to land Alonso). Alternatively, tthe Halos could hand the reins to Valbuena and C.J. Cron at first and and go for a third baseman, whether it’s Los Angeles native Mike Moustakas, Todd Frazier, Eduardo Nunez or Zack Cozart (if he’s willing to move off shortstop) in free agency or another player via trade.

Latest On Giancarlo Stanton: Talks Between Marlins, 4 Teams

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The Red Sox, Cardinals, Giants and Phillies are early contenders to put together a trade for Marlins superstar Giancarlo Stanton, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports (on Twitter). There has been “preliminary communication” regarding the right fielder between each of those teams and the Marlins, according to Morosi, who adds that talks are likely to “intensify” at next week’s general managers meetings.

With the Marlins primed to slash payroll under new owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter, Stanton stands out as their most obvious trade candidate. The 2017 major league home run king (59) and National League MVP finalist is owed either $295MM through 2028 or $77MM through 2020, depending on whether he exercises his opt-out clause. The amount of money left on the contract, the opt-out and Stanton’s full no-trade rights could combine to make a trade rather complicated. But the 27-year-old Stanton’s no-trade clause may not be a major hindrance, given that he is fed up with losing and would like to join a contender. The Marlins appear poised to embark on a lengthy rebuild, so it seems doubtful Stanton would stand in the way of a deal if he feels the acquiring team would give him a chance to play meaningful games into the fall – something he hasn’t done since bursting on the big league scene in 2010.

While the Marlins have never even posted an above-.500 season during Stanton’s eight-year career, the Red Sox, Cardinals and Giants have typically served as contenders during that span (though San Francisco’s coming off a major league-worst 68-win season). The Phillies, meanwhile, have finished toward the bottom of the NL East for five years running, but several of their young players showed progress in 2017, and the club figures to return to its high-spending ways when it’s officially ready to leave its own long rebuild behind. Stanton reportedly wasn’t willing to waive his NTC to go to Philadelphia as of late in the season, though, and it could also hurt the team’s cause that it shares a division with the Marlins, who would have to face the p.r. backlash of dealing the face of their franchise to a close rival.

As with the Phillies, there are reasons why a Stanton acquisition would and wouldn’t work for each of the other three suitors (and several other teams), as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd deftly laid out on Thursday. Regardless of whether the Marlins ultimately send him to one of the four front-runners or another club, the Stanton sweepstakes will go down as one of the most fascinating sagas of the offseason.

Latest On Diamondbacks, J.D. Martinez

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The Diamondbacks’ odds of re-signing free agent right fielder J.D. Martinez already looked low even before a report emerged Wednesday that he’s seeking a contract worth around $200MM in guarantees. The team’s chances of keeping the star slugger seemingly took another hit Friday when CEO Derrick Hall announced that its payroll won’t significantly climb in 2018.

“You’re not talking about $10 million,” Hall said of a potential spending increase (via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic). That’s not to say the Diamondbacks won’t increase their payroll at all, however. There could be wiggle room for them to add a few million in payroll as the offseason moves along and club gets a clearer picture of its anticipated revenue.

Arizona hasn’t opened a season above the $100MM mark since 2014, though it did close each of the past two years above that figure. Now, thanks largely to guaranteed money owed to five veterans (Zack Greinke, Yasmany Tomas, Paul Goldschmidt, Jeff Mathis and Daniel Descalso) and arbitration projections for 14 other players, the Diamondbacks are already in the $120MM range for 2018 without having added any new players, per an estimate from Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource.

All signs are pointing toward J.D. Martinez’s exit via the open market, though Hall did say Friday that the Diamondbacks are “going to be aggressive for, really, any and all players that can help us,” adding that they’re “taking a strong look” at the 30-year-old (via Steve Gilbert of MLB.com). Martinez’s agent, Scott Boras, suggested Wednesday that he expects the Diamondbacks to be serious contenders to sign his client. But Hall revealed on Friday that there have not been any discussions between the club and Boras since Martinez hired him as his new representative Nov. 1.

“(We had) some good conversations (before free agency began) and since then he’s sought new representation, so things have changed from those initial conversations,” Hall said. “But J.D. is such a great guy and we’re just glad to know that he enjoyed his time here because we enjoyed him being here, too.”

After Arizona acquired Martinez from Detroit in a mid-July trade, he batted an all-world .302/.366/.741 with 29 home runs in 232 plate appearances to emerge as one of the most effective midseason pickups of all-time. That dazzling second-half output helped the Diamondbacks to a 93-69 finish and their first playoff berth since 2011, and Boras is well aware of it.

“High atop the MLB Empire rests the King Kong of Slug — a 50-point lead,” Boras said of the slugging percentage Martinez posted in Arizona (Twitter link via Jon Morosi of MLB Network). “That’s how dominant J.D. Kong is.”

NL Notes: Cobb, Cubs, Marlins, Mets, Reds

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In an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Friday, free agent right-hander Alex Cobb spoke highly of Cubs manager Joe Maddon and pitching coach Jim Hickey, as Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago details. Cobb spent the first seven years of his career in Tampa Bay, where he played under Maddon (2011-14) and Hickey (through 2017), which has led to speculation that the Cubs will pursue him in free agency. On the possibility of joining the Cubs and reuniting with Maddon and Hickey, Cobb said, “Obviously, if we move down the line and we’re able to have some discussions with them, I’d be very honored to be able to talk with them and hopefully come to a deal.”

Before Cobb’s eligible to sign with the Cubs or another team, he’ll have to reject the Rays’ $17.4MM qualifying offer, which he hinted he’ll do when he said, “You’re talking about, hopefully, a decision that’s going to impact the next five years of your life. Based on that comment, it seems Cobb is seeking a five-year deal (MLBTR is projecting he’ll land a four-year arrangement), though he insisted that he’ll prioritize team success over money. “I’ve been through both. I’ve been through losing seasons and I’ve been through winning seasons,” he stated. “And the amount of joy that winning brings to us – it can’t be replaced by a dollar figure.”

More from the National League:

  • Joe Frisaro of MLB.com breaks down offseason trade possibilities for the Marlins, who are reportedly shopping right fielder Giancarlo Stanton, second baseman Dee Gordon and third baseman Martin Prado. To get a haul for Stanton, who’s owed $295MM through 2028 (or $77MM if he opts out after 2020), Frisaro suggests the Fish should pick up one-third of the tab over the next three years. Gordon’s contract is far less complicated – he’s due a manageable $37.9MM through 2020 – which should lead to widespread interest in him, Frisaro observes. The same isn’t true of Prado, who’s coming off a below-average, injury-plagued year and will rake in $28.5MM through 2019. The Marlins’ best hope to move Prado would be to package him with a real asset – center fielder Christian Yelich, for example – Frisaro opines. Otherwise, they’re going to be stuck with the 34-year-old heading into next season.
  • While the Mets could be on the hunt for a second baseman, odds are they won’t be the team that acquires Gordon, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com writes. The Mets have neither the prospect capital nor payroll flexibility necessary to put together a deal for Gordon, reasons DiComo, who estimates that the club has around $30MM to spend this offseason with needs at second or third base, the corner outfield/first base, the rotation and the bullpen.
  • The Reds plan to use star third base prospect Nick Senzel all over the diamond in 2018, general manager Dick Williams tells Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. “This is a guy that played shortstop in college [at Tennessee], played third base in college, played second base as an amateur,” Williams said. “We think he’s clearly athletic enough to go to left field or right field. He’s got the bat to do it.” The 22-year-old Senzel showed off his prowess at the plate in 2017, hitting a robust .321/.391/.514 in 507 plate appearances between Single-A and Double-A, and figures to open next season at the minors’ highest level.

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