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Seibu Lions Reliever Kazuhisa Makita Could Become Available To MLB Teams

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The posting system between Major League Baseball and Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball remains in flux, creating some question as to whether vaunted right-hander/slugger Shohei Otani will ultimately be made available to big league clubs this offseason. Otani isn’t the only person whose shot at a Major League opportunity is in question, however; as the Japan Times reports, submarine righty Kazuhisa Makita could also be posted for MLB clubs if a new agreement between MLB and NPB can be reached.

“We plan to give him the green light,” said Lions executive Haruhiko Suzuki when asked about honoring Makita’s request to be posted for MLB clubs. “We are moving in that direction. He has a strong desire (to move to the majors through the posting system). We haven’t heard the outcome (of the negotiations). We will wait for that, then submit paperwork.”

Unlike Otani, the 32-year-old Makita is not a young star headed into his prime. Rather, he’s long been a successful starter and reliever. Makita is still subject to the posting system, though, because he did not begin his pro career in Japan until the age of 26, thus leaving him shy of the requisite nine years of service time to be considered a free agent under Japan’s rules. However, under MLB’s collective bargaining agreement, Makita would be considered a professional. In other words: he’s subject to the posting system but not to international bonus pools. If he is indeed posted, he’ll be able to sign for any amount with whichever teams meet his posting amount.

It’s far from clear what type of posting figure/release fee would’ve been placed on Makita by the Lions anyhow. The 32-year-old was the Pacific League Rookie of the Year back in 2011, the report notes, and he owns an excellent 2.83 ERA in 921 1/3 career innings. After moving to the bullpen full time in 2016, he’s posted a minuscule 1.91 ERA in nearly 150 innings. Makita’s submarine delivery could well hold appeal to a wide swath of clubs looking to give opponents a different look in the middle and late innings of a game.

However, Makita also generates an abnormally low number of strikeouts for a pitcher with his success, and some big league clubs will likely harbor trepidation as a result. Makita has averaged just five punchouts per nine innings over the course of his pro career in Japan, though to his credit he’s averaged just two walks per nine innings. In 147 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, Makita has issued just 19 unintentional walks, but he’s also hit 13 batters in that time.

Batted-ball data for NPB isn’t readily available, but a delivery as extreme as that of Makita figures to lend itself to weak contact — especially from right-handed opponents. His blend of a low strikeout rate with strong walk rates and plenty of weak contact isn’t all that dissimilar from free-agent righty Brandon Kintzler or from Marlins sidearm righty Brad Ziegler, so there’s certainly precedent for that skill set playing well in the Majors in today’s game. Whether he’s ultimately made available to big league clubs is entirely dependent on negotiations between MLB and NPB, but he’d be another name to watch for bullpen-hungry teams in free agency this winter.

AL Notes: Cora, Tigers, Astros

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There are many reasons that Alex Cora is the right man to manage the Red Sox. As Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald points out, the fact that he’s Latino only adds to that list. Cora is the 47th manager in the history of the Red Sox franchise, and, up until now, every single one of them had been white. The former middle infielder will be involved with a front office that is mostly white while managing a team on the field that has often been predominantly black and hispanic. Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy has stressed that Cora’s minority status is “a bonus rather than impetus”, but regardless, it looks great for a franchise that took 12 years longer to integrate their roster than the first MLB team to do so. Interestingly, Silverman notes that in 2017, 43 percent of major league baseball players were players of color, while only three of 30 managers were non-white.

More from around the AL…

  • While Tigers are unlikely to make any significant additions to their major league roster this winter, Evan Woodbery of mlive.com says that the organization will be very active on the minor league free agent market. Detroit will focus on making moves to bolster their depth at Triple-A Toledo and will hope to “find a diamond in the rough or lightning in the bottle”, according to GM Al Avila. Woodbery lists 23 players in the Tigers’ system who are eligible to become minor league free agents, and while many of those will probably re-sign with the organization, it seems likely there will be some shuffling of their Double- and Triple-A rosters this winter.
  • Three and a half years ago, an article appeared in Sports Illustrated with a prediction that the Astros would win the 2017 World Series. This past Thursday, Ben Reiter of Sports Illustrated explains why he’s predicting a repeat for the Astros in 2018. Although only two teams have been able to win back-to-back championships since the 70’s, Reiter cites a powerhouse offense that will only lose Cameron Maybin and Carlos Beltran as a big reason the Astros can accomplish the feat next year. He also points out that more young reinforcements are on the way in five-tool left-handed outfielder Kyle Tucker and towering right-handed pitcher Forrest Whitley. While Reiter cites the bullpen as an area of need, he concludes that the Astros are “unusually well-positioned to hang onto the crown”.

Looking For A Match In A Marcell Ozuna Trade

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While the potential of a Giancarlo Stanton trade seems to be dominating headlines in Miami, the Marlins have plenty of other players who could potentially be on the move this winter as they look to cut payroll. In particular, a trade of outfielder Marcell Ozuna has the potential to bring back a big haul in terms of prospects while saving the Marlins something in the neighborhood of $25MM over the next two seasons. As a client of Scott Boras, Ozuna is unlikely to sign any sort of extension to remain in Miami, so the organization seems likely to at least explore some trade scenarios this winter.

When considering the possibility of an Ozuna trade, one has to take into account that the Marlins don’t seem to be in any rush to move him. The team reportedly values his contributions highly, and seems more focused on finding trade partners for other players, including Stanton, Dee Gordon and Martin Prado. Any trade involving Ozuna will likely have to meet the Marlins’ asking price without much in the way of wiggle room.

That being said, there would seem to be no shortage of suitors for the two-time All-Star. Ozuna has experience at all three outfield positions (though his defense in center field leaves something to be desired), and packs a wallop from the right side of the plate. His 37 homers and breakout .312/.376/.548 batting line across 679 plate appearances in 2017 could have teams around the league salivating at the mere thought of him being shopped. MLBTR’s arbitration projection model expects him to earn $10.9MM in 2018, which is a considerable sum but certainly a bargain on a 4.8 fWAR player. It would be more difficult to think of contending teams that don’t have a need for Ozuna than to list off those who do.

The key to finding the best suitors for Ozuna comes down to a question of which contending teams have the kind of high-ceiling prospects necessary to wow the Marlins, along with a hole in their outfield gaping enough to give that talent up. For example, the Astros have the kind of prospects that could get a deal done, but probably wouldn’t be interested in paying such a high price to upgrade over serviceable players like Josh Reddick and Marwin Gonzalez. Conversely, the Arizona Diamondbacks have a J.D. Martinez-sized hole in their outfield but lack the kind of headliner prospect necessary to tempt Ozuna away from the Fish.

One potential match that comes to mind is the Nationals. With Jayson Werth set to become a free agent, Ozuna could take over left field. It’s unlikely the Nats would be willing to part with Victor Robles, but even Juan Soto and Carter Kieboom could provide a good starting point. On the other hand, while it makes some sense on paper, division rivals don’t often make trades of that magnitude with each other. To make matters more complicated, the Nationals are already likely to exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2018, and adding another $10.9MM salary to the books would only make things worse.

The Rays, Braves and Blue Jays all own multiple prospects in MLB Pipeline’s top 25, and all three teams could plug a considerable hole with the addition of Ozuna. However, one has to wonder if any of these teams are complete enough to warrant the kind of all-in move that an Ozuna trade would represent. It certainly helps that he comes with two years of team control and would therefore be more than simply a rental.

The Indians are an interesting option. While they have a glut of outfield options after picking up the option on Michael Brantley, they could really benefit from a right-handed outfielder to balance out all the lefties, including Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall, Bradley Zimmer and Jason Kipnis. One could see an alignment in which Ozuna slots in as their everyday right fielder while Brantley plays first base or DH and Kipnis plays at second. Cleveland holds blue-chip prospects in Francisco Mejia and Triston McKenzie.

The Cardinals are worth mentioning, since they would probably have some level of interest considering their reported pursuit of Stanton. They have a number of top 100 prospects in their system and a 40-man roster crunch that could make it worth dealing a couple of them.

One match that seems to stand out above the rest, however, is the Los Angeles Dodgers. Their outfield is deep, but they’re lacking in truly elite corner outfielders and they probably wouldn’t have trouble tacking on an extra $10.9MM in payroll. To boot, their farm system is one of the deepest in baseball. One could imagine them dangling Alex Verdugo or Yadier Alvarez as a starting point, and adding to the package from there. In theory, the Dodgers seem like a really good match for an Ozuna trade.

As I mentioned earlier, the Marlins certainly don’t need to trade Ozuna this winter, especially if they’re more focused on moving other players. If they want to, however, they’d find no shortage of interested teams. The market for Ozuna would be strong, so Miami ought to seriously consider the possibility.

Qualifying Offer Rumors: Sunday

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The deadline for teams to issue qualifying offers is on Monday at 5pm EST. Between now and then, we’ll likely hear some chatter about players that likely will or will not receive the QO. It’s valued at $17.4MM this year. Those who need to brush up on the new rules should read this primer.

While quite a few situations are obvious (in either direction), it’s worth bearing in mind that there have been surprises in the past. Here’s some QO-related chatter that’s been floating around on Sunday.

  • The Rays are likely to issue a qualifying offer to right-handed starter Alex Cobb, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com hears (Twitter link). Cobb pitched to a 3.66 ERA with a typically strong 47.8% ground ball rate across 179 1/3 innings in his first full season since undergoing Tommy John surgery. The 30-year-old started 29 games in 2017. The MLBTR team predicts a four-year, $48MM contract for him.
  • Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago opines that the Cubs will issue a QO to both Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis (something that has long seemed likely). He further speculates that the (unlikely) event of Davis accepting the offer would represent an ideal scenario for the Cubs, who don’t have an obvious replacement for him in the closer role aside from perhaps Carl Edwards Jr., who struggled with command in the playoffs and has only 107 innings of major league experience. Both Arrieta and Davis rank among MLBTR’s top ten free agents.
  • The Rangers are not expected to extend a QO to right-handed starter Andrew Cashner, Jon Heyman of FanRag reports via Twitter. He notes that the Rangers were considering the move, but that certainly would have been surprising given Cashner’s injury history and poor peripherals. Though he managed a 3.40 ERA across 166 2/3 innings in 2017, Cashner struck out an alarmingly low 4.64 batters per nine innings. He seemingly benefitted from some BABIP- and homer/fly ball rate-related luck as evidenced by his 5.30 xFIP. The MLBTR team predicted a 2-year, $20MM contract for Cashner, ranking him as the 27th-best free agent available.

Dodgers Decline Andre Ethier’s Option

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The Dodgers have declined outfielder Andre Ethier’s $17.5MM club option for 2018 in favor of a $2.5MM buyout, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports (on Twitter).

Moving on from Ethier at that lofty price tag was an easy decision for the Dodgers, who saw the 35-year-old deal with significant injury issues over the past two seasons and combine for a mere 64 plate appearances. In 2017, back problems kept Ethier out until September and prevented him from contributing to the Dodgers’ fifth straight NL West-winning effort, but he was able to partake in his eighth postseason with the club. Ethier totaled 15 playoff plate appearances this season, including six in the Dodgers’ World Series loss to the Astros. In what is likely to go down as his final at-bat with the franchise, Ethier picked up a pinch-hit RBI single in LA’s 5-1 loss in Game 7 of the Fall Classic.

Prior to the past two seasons, Ethier was a consistent offensive presence for the Dodgers. The 2003 second-round pick debuted in 2006 and proceeded to slash an impressive .286/.359/.464 with 159 home runs through the 2015 campaign. The success Ethier had early in his career led the Dodgers to sign him to his most recent deal, a five-year, $85MM extension, in June 2012.

With his Dodgers tenure in the rearview, the lefty-swinging Ethier will head to the open market, though his age, recent health troubles and longstanding woes against same-handed pitchers will work against him in free agency. Still, Ethier was a terrific offensive player as recently as 2015, slashing .294/.366/.486 in 445 PAs, and could garner interest from teams looking for a designated hitter.

Quick Hits: Chen, Morton, Rays, Cardinals

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Left-hander Wei-Yin Chen informed the Marlins that he will not opt out of the remaining three years and $52MM on his contract, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports. Considering the injury and performance issues he has had during his two-year Marlins tenure, there was no chance Chen would abandon his deal in favor of free agency. Elbow problems shelved the 32-year-old for long periods in each of the past two seasons, including for most of 2017, and he made just 27 starts and pitched to a 4.72 ERA during that 156 1/3-inning span. The five-year, $80MM contract the Marlins gave Chen prior to the 2016 season now looks like an especially damaging move for a franchise aiming to slash payroll.

More from around the majors:

  • The Astros made one of the savviest signings of last offseason when they inked right-hander Charlie Morton to a two-year, $14MM contract, but they may have been able to land him for less, per ESPN’s Buster Olney. When discussing the Astros’ offer with his agent, Morton inferred that their proposal was worth a total of $7MM – an amount he was “thrilled with,” Olney writes. Morton was “astounded” to find that the Astros were willing to give him twice that figure, and he jumped at the chance to sign with the club. A year later, the Astros are World Series champions, thanks in no small part to Morton’s contributions.
  • In the wake of their fourth straight sub-.500 season, the Rays are tasked with trying to improve while reducing their already minuscule payroll, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The Rays opened 2017 with a payroll of around $70MM, the second-lowest mark in baseball, and ended it near $80MM. There will be cost-cutting trades this offseason, suggests Topkin, who points to righty Jake Odorizzi, left fielder/designated hitter Corey Dickerson, closer Alex Colome and infielder Brad Miller as potential movers. Those four are projected to earn around $23MM through arbitration in 2018.
  • With a glut of outfielders in both the majors and minors, the Cardinals are in position to “dominate” that segment of the trade market, Kyle Glaser of Baseball America observes (subscription required and recommended). Glaser goes on to break down the likelihood of the organization trading any of its top 11 outfielders, including Dexter Fowler, Tommy Pham, Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk and Jose Martinez.

Poll: Will The Dodgers Trade Yasmani Grandal?

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Yasmani Grandal has been among the best catchers in the majors during his three-year tenure with the Dodgers, but it’s possible he’ll don a different uniform next season. After the Dodgers lost Game 7 of the World Series to the Astros on Wednesday, Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times reported that the National League champions “may field offers for” Grandal this winter.

While the Dodgers will again be on the shortlist of legitimate championship contenders entering 2018, Grandal’s age-29 season, there’s some logic to the team parting with him before then. He was barely a factor in this year’s playoffs, for one, thanks to the emergence of Austin Barnes as manager Dave Roberts’ preferred option at catcher. The 27-year-old Barnes somewhat quietly turned in an outstanding regular season in his first extensive big league action, though he accrued 220 fewer plate appearances than Grandal along the way (262 to 482). But Barnes logged nearly all of the action at backstop in the postseason, racking up 52 PAs to Grandal’s 11.

Yasmani Grandal

Given Barnes’ excellent 2017 production and long-term team control (he’s not even scheduled to reach arbitration until 2020), the Dodgers may regard him as their behind-the-plate solution for the foreseeable future. Grandal, on the other hand, only has a year of control left, in which he’ll earn a projected $7.7MM in arbitration. That shouldn’t be an unpalatable sum for the big-spending Dodgers if they expect Grandal to continue seeing significant playing time next season. If he really has fallen out of favor, though, a trade could be in the offing.

In marketing Grandal, the Dodgers would be shopping a player who, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric, has never been worse than an average major league hitter in any of his six seasons of action. The switch-hitting Grandal is coming off a year in which he registered a 102 wRC+, which was both above average for position players and especially for catchers, who posted a mean of 89. As effective as Grandal has been at the plate, there’s a case to be made that he has been even better behind it. Since debuting with the Padres in 2012, Grandal has been an elite pitch framer in each season, per both Baseball Prospectus and StatCorner. Grandal also just wrapped up a third straight campaign in which he threw out more would-be base stealers (32 percent) than the typical catcher (27 percent).

It’s clear that 2017 was a solid all-around year for Grandal, though it did see him experience a notable offensive dropoff compared to the previous season. Grandal performed at a personal-best level across 457 PAs in 2016, swatting 27 home runs and hitting .228/.339/.477 – good for a 121 wRC+. He fell to .247/.308/.459 with 22 HRs in 482 trips to the plate this past season, though, thanks in part to career-worst walk (8.3 percent), strikeout (27 percent), chase (31.6 percent) and swinging-strike (11.9 percent) rates. The walk and chase rates were particularly alarming, given the vastly superior numbers he recorded in those departments a year ago (14 percent and 23.3 percent, respectively).  And when Grandal did put the bat on the ball in 2017, it made far less impact than in 2016. According to Statcast (via Baseball Savant), Grandal’s average exit velocity tumbled from 91 mph to 87.9 mph, while his barrels per PA plummeted from 7.4 percent to 4.8 percent. As a result, his expected weighted on-base average cratered, going from to .363 to .288.

Any team interested in acquiring Grandal would be aware of the fact that he wasn’t at his best in 2017, yet they still may regard him as a more appealing option than the top impending free agent catchers – Jonathan Lucroy, Welington Castillo (if he opts out of his contract with the Orioles) and Alex Avila – all of whom come with obvious flaws. At the same time, there appears to be a limited number of viable fits for Grandal. Non-contenders aren’t in position to surrender much for a player who will be a free agent in a year, which could leave playoff hopefuls like the Nationals, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Angels and Orioles (unless they’re ready to hand the reins to prospect Chance Sisco) among the most logical potential suitors. But it’s hard to imagine the Dodgers helping the Nats, a fellow NL power, improve their dire situation behind the plate, and the same applies to the division-rival D-backs and Rockies. As American League teams, the Angels and Orioles seem like more realistic possibilities, but their thin farm systems could stand in the way if the Dodgers were to seek youth in return for Grandal.

Should the Dodgers shop Grandal and fail to find an offer to their liking, retaining him wouldn’t exactly be a negative outcome. On paper, he and Barnes would continue to give the Dodgers an enviable backstop tandem in 2018, regardless of which of the two plays more, thereby increasing the team’s odds of winning a sixth straight NL West title.

(Poll link for App users)

Will the Dodgers trade Yasmani Grandal?
Yes 64.74% (6,192 votes)
No 35.26% (3,372 votes)
Total Votes: 9,564

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rumors: Cards, Stanton, Yelich, Rangers, Yu, Cobb, Tribe

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The Cardinals are more likely to trade for an impact bat than sign one, suggests Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com reported Saturday that the Cardinals are willing to offer “one of their best young pitchers” for Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton, and Goold adds that the Redbirds will have discussions with Miami about both Stanton and center fielder Christian Yelich this offseason.

Meanwhile, a much-needed addition to the Cardinals’ bullpen could come soon. The Cards have reached out to representatives for certain impending free agent relievers this weekend, relays Goold, who expects them to pursue a closer and possibly a setup man. Trading for bullpen help also seems possible, as the Cardinals are facing a 40-man roster logjam in advance of next month’s Rule 5 draft. With the need to finalize his 40-man by the Nov. 20 deadline, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Goold that the team may “consider moving two roster players for one. That kind of thing. We have to be open to try.”

  • Former Rangers ace and soon-to-be free agent Yu Darvish is not atop their offseason wish list, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram reports. The Rangers will contact Darvish’s agent during free agency, but the likelihood is that he’ll be too pricey to return to the team, per Wilson. With a Darvish reunion looking like a long shot, the Rangers might turn to another established free agent right-hander in Alex Cobb, whom they covet, according to Wilson. The longtime Ray, 30, returned from a 2015 Tommy John procedure in earnest this year, tossing 179 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA/4.16 FIP ball.
  • The Indians aren’t optimistic that they’ll be able to re-sign impending free agent reliever Bryan Shaw, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com reports. Shaw has been an effective workhorse out of the Indians’ bullpen since 2013, having pitched to a 3.11 ERA across 358 2/3 innings during that five-year span, and appears poised to parlay his success in Cleveland into a contract out of the club’s price range. MLBTR projects a three-year, $21MM deal for Shaw, which the Indians believe will prove close to accurate, Terry Pluto of cleveland.com writes. With the soon-to-be 30-year-old Shaw apparently on his way out, the Tribe could feel more urgency to re-sign fellow impending free agent reliever Joe Smith, Hoynes notes. Smith, who will play his age-34 season in 2018, is fresh off a terrific campaign divided between Toronto and Cleveland.

MLBTR Originals

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Recapping MLBTR’s original content from the past week:

  • Tim Dierkes released his annual Top 50 Free Agents rankings based on potential earning power for each player. With help from MLBTR writers Steve Adams, Jeff Todd and Jason Martinez, Tim also predicted signing destinations for all of those players – two of whom (No. 5 Masahiro Tanaka and No. 26 Michael Brantley) quickly came off the board and will remain with their current teams. For more on this winter’s rankings, check out the chat transcript between Tim and MLBTR readers.
  • The MLBTR Offseason Outlook series continued with in-depth looks at what moves the Indians, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Rangers and World Series-winning Astros could make in the coming months.

Mets To Hire Gary DiSarcina As Bench Coach

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The Mets are hiring Gary DiSarcina as their new bench coach, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe first suggested the Mets would tab DiSarcina to replace previous bench coach Dick Scott (Twitter links).

The 49-year-old DiSarcina spent 2017 as the bench coach for the Red Sox, but he lost the position when the team fired manager John Farrell after the season. Previously, DiSarcina held other roles with the Boston organization, including serving as its Triple-A manager in 2013. He also worked with the Angels on a couple of occasions, most recently as a third and first base coach on Mike Scioscia’s staff from 2014-16, after spending his entire playing career with the Halos as a shortstop from 1989-2000.

Thanks to his experience in multiple high-level positions, DiSarcina has drawn managerial interest in the past, even landing on the Phillies’ radar when they were searching for a manager last month. That job ultimately went to Gabe Kapler, paving the way for rookie Mets skipper Mickey Callaway to hire DiSarcina as his right-hand man.

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