Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Rangers Sign Austin Bibens-Dirkx, Erik Goeddel
The Rangers have announced the signings of righties Austin Bibens-Dirkx and Erik Goeddel. Both players will receive minors contracts that include invitations to MLB Spring Training.
Texas has worked hard to build out its pitching depth this winter, and that’s all the more important now given that Martin Perez is slated to miss some time early on. While the Rangers will surely still hope to find more impactful additions, a little spring competition never hurts.
Bibens-Dirkx reached the majors for the first time in 2017 with the Rangers. Working as a swingman, he provided 69 1/3 innings of 4.67 ERA ball over 18 relief appearances and six starts. He also managed only 4.9 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 and allowed 1.8 home runs per regulation outing. The 32-year-old was outrighted off of the 40-man roster at the end of the season.
As for Goeddel, who turns 29 tomorrow, he’ll step into the bullpen competition after appearing in each of the past four seasons with the Mets. The UCLA product has shown some swing and miss, recording 9.4 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 while carrying a 3.96 ERA through 104 2/3 career MLB frames. Goeddel managed a hefty 15.2% swinging-strike rate in 2017, though he also coughed up eight long balls in just 29 frames on the year.
Martin Perez Undergoes Surgery For Break To Non-Throwing Elbow
Rangers left-hander Martin Perez is set to miss approximately four months after undergoing surgery for a fracture to the radial head in his right arm, the club announced. He is said to have incurred the injury at his ranch in his home country of Venezuela.
Perez, 26, is expected to hold down a starting spot for the Rangers in 2018. Odds are, though, that he’ll miss a bit of time to open the season, perhaps increasing the organization’s need for rotation depth. Four months from today puts the potential return in mid-April, but perhaps it’s wise to build in a bit of extra padding to expectations.
Though Perez limped to a 4.82 ERA in 2017, he enjoyed a second consecutive healthy campaign and has thrown 383 2/3 innings since the start of 2016. Texas decided to pick up a $6MM option to retain him in hopes that he’d again fill up some frames and might also improve his results.
While there’s not much to love about Perez’s peripherals of late, he has long generated good rates of grounders and has been effective in the past when he suppresses home runs sufficiently. He also still delivers a 93 to 94 mph fastball, though his swinging-strike rates are stuck below eight percent.
[RELATED: Updated Rangers Depth Chart]
In any event, the Rangers now have more reason than ever to seek an additional rotation-capable arm. The team has already added Mike Minor, Matt Moore, and Doug Fister to a unit fronted by Cole Hamels, but the organization is short of established options beyond that.
Giants Re-Sign Nick Hundley
The Giants have announced a new one-year deal with catcher Nick Hundley, as Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area was among those to tweet. He receives a $2.5MM guarantee in the pact, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports on Twitter.
Hundey, 34, has spent the bulk of his career in the NL West. The ten-year MLB veteran will return for a second run with the Giants. With the move, San Francisco has lined up its reserve for star backstop Buster Posey.
Though he has rarely received anything approaching everyday playing time, Hundley has long been a heavily utilized piece. He has averaged nearly 300 plate appearances annually, with a lifetime .249/.300/.406 batting line.
For the most part, it was a typical season for Hundley in 2017. He strode to the plate 303 times and ended with a .244/.272/.418 output that was shy, but within range of, his career mean.
San Francisco will hope for a bit more bat, though palatable offensive output is only a part of the value of the respected veteran. Hundley is valued for his presence in the clubhouse and with the pitching staff. While he has never fared well in framing ratings, he does otherwise grade as a sturdy option behind the dish.
Dodgers Receiving Minimal Trade Interest In Matt Kemp
When the Dodgers recently pulled off a big-contract swap with the Braves that improved the team’s luxury tax accounting, they ended up with former star outfielder Matt Kemp. It remains difficult to see Kemp ending up on the Dodgers’ Opening Day roster, but the team is also finding little interest in the veteran from other organizations, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag.
Indeed, per Heyman, “the trade market for Kemp is believed to be virtually nonexistent at the moment.” That’s hardly surprising, of course. Atlanta no doubt would have moved Kemp previously if there had been an opportunity. He’s worth nothing close to what’s left on his contract, which has been traded three times already.
Still, we heard recently about the possibility of the Dodgers including prospects as an inducement to another organization to take over a portion of the Kemp deal. Just how much cash might move off the L.A. books would surely depend upon the quality of the prospect(s) up for the bidding, with any such deal potentially representing an interesting look at the market valuation of some young talent.
Whether that sort of scenario might yet be in play is not yet clear, but it seems the Dodgers won’t be able to get much of a credit for the rights to Kemp himself. But that’s not to say that there’s no potential value left in the veteran slugger, who only just turned 33 years of year.
Kemp, after all, is still a significant power threat who has managed slightly above-average offensive production over the past three seasons. While health, defense, and on-base questions persist, he could well be worthy of a MLB roster spot — particularly for an American League team that is in need of a slugger that can mash against opposing lefties (against whom Kemp carries a lifetime .921 OPS).
In any event, the Dodgers likely aren’t in much of a rush at present. Even with Kemp on the 40-man, the club has three open roster spots to work with. Unless and until pressure is created in that realm, the Los Angeles front office can explore any number creative ways to shed some of the obligations to Kemp while maximizing the organization’s resources in addressing other needs.
How Have MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents Fared Thus Far?
With the Winter Meetings wrapped up and holiday season in full swing, we’re left looking at an unprecedentedly slow free agent market. The ongoing logjam, in spite of resolution for the Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Ohtani situations, lends credence to the theory that there are structural forces at play that may be shifting the typical signing calendar.
Some have wondered whether this state of affairs represents a major threat to players’ earnings. Most top free agents have yet to find a match and there’s a big-market luxury tax limbo line forming in the center of the dance floor, after all.
Of course, there are still some conceivably one-off factors that may be influencing things. If nothing else, all industry players are to some extent still waiting to see how a new CBA will impact strategy. A broad youth movement in the game may be a background feature here. The trade market may still be sorting itself out, due in part to the fact that there are only a few pure selling clubs — some with big trade pieces are also weighing other significant additions, while other conceivable rebuilders seem not to be interested in a tear-down.
Still, it’s remarkable how full the free agent cupboard is with just a dozen days left in the 2017 calendar. Just 17 of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have locked up deals to this point (by MLBTR ranking, with predicted contract value in parentheses):
- 12. Carlos Santana, Phillies, 3/$60MM (3/$45MM)
- 13. Zack Cozart, Angels, 3/$38MM (3/$42MM)
- 18. Mike Minor, Rangers, 3/$28MM (4/$28MM)
- 19. Brandon Morrow, Cubs, 2/$21MM (3/$24MM)
- 21. CC Sabathia, Yankees, 1/$10MM (2/$24MM)
- 24. Juan Nicasio, Mariners, 2/$17MM (3/$21MM)
- 25. Bryan Shaw, Rockies, 3/$27MM (3/$21MM)
- 29. Tyler Chatwood, Cubs, 3/$38MM (3/$20MM)
- 30. Jake McGee, Rockies, 3/$27MM (3/$18MM)
- 34. Welington Castillo, White Sox, 2/$15MM (2/$14MM)
- 36. Anthony Swarzak, Mets, 2/$14MM (2/$14MM)
- 37. Steve Cishek, Cubs, 2/$13MM (2/$14MM)
- 38. Brandon Kintzler, Nationals, 2/$10MM (2/$14MM)
- 41. Tommy Hunter, Phillies, 2/$18MM (2/$12MM)
- 43. Pat Neshek, Phillies, 2/$16.25MM (2/$12MM)
- 49. Michael Pineda, Twins, 2/$10MM (2/$6MM)
- 50. Miles Mikolas, Cardinals, 2/$15.5MM (2/$10MM)
Of course, some other players have also signed fairly significant contracts:
- Honorable Mentions – Joe Smith (2/$15MM), Mitch Moreland (2/$13MM), Fernando Rodney (1/$4.5MM)
- Others – Luke Gregerson (2/$11MM), Yusmeiro Petit (2/$10MM), Drew Smyly (2/$10MM), Hector Rondon (2/$8.5MM) Mike Fiers (1/$6MM), Fister (1/$4MM), Chris Iannetta (2/$8.5MM)
The top ten players on MLBTR’s board remain unsigned (not including Masahiro Tanaka, who did not opt out). Only three position players from the list are under contract. None of the top starters have put pen to paper. Meanwhile, teams have gone wild for setup arms — which arguably suggests some trepidation at more significant spending. The top three relievers (Wade Davis, Greg Holland, and Addison Reed) are still available, but otherwise many of the top bullpen pieces are under contract.
At the same time, though, there are some indications that we could still see things shake out in a relatively typical way, even if the process and timing are different. The clear run on relievers shows that teams can still act quickly and dole out large contracts when the dominoes start to fall at a given position. Those players that have signed to date have performed well; among the top fifty, they’ve secured contracts collectively guaranteeing about 11% more than MLBTR had predicted as a group. While the Dodgers and Yankees won’t drive top-end spending this year, the opportunities presented by top free agents will surely still prove tantalizing to other organizations.
Who holds the cards with about two months until camps open? That’ll be sorted out in an unusual time frame and will still be impacted by uncertainty in the trade market. Most broadly, the full narrative of the 2017-18 offseason has yet to declare itself, but that’s also a fact that’s notable in and of itself.
Poll: Should The Cubs Sign Yu Darvish?
It’s obvious now that the Cubs have more than a passing interest in free agent righty Yu Darvish, who the team’s top brass met with today in Texas. As Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic writes, it seems the growing likelihood of a match is the result more of market development than the pre-winter intentions of the Chicago organization.
The connection is real, then, but its consummation is hardly a fait accompli. It’s a good time to stop and take the temperature of the MLBTR readership on the subject with a poll.
It doesn’t take much explanation to establish the fit. Darvish is the top free agent starter, in MLBTR’s collective estimation. While the Cubs have added Tyler Chatwood to a staff that’s fronted by Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester, and Jose Quintana, the club would like to add another high-quality arm to push Mike Montgomery into the bullpen (or out via trade). The club seems to have payroll space left to work with.
In one view, then, it’s simple: of course the Cubs should pursue Darvish. That said, if it’s circumstances driving the interest — say, Darvish’s interest levels and the still-lofty asking price of other top free agents like Jake Arrieta and Alex Cobb — then we have to bear in mind all the more that price will matter. It’s not as if the rest of the market will sit back and allow the Cubs to swoop in and make a deal; a few other teams, at least, have been cited as having ongoing interest.
So, rather than a simple yes/no question, I thought it’d be more interesting to see the circumstances under which folks believe a match would be sensible here for the Cubs. Darvish makes any team better, but perhaps you think he’s not as good as other options or that the team should prioritize other areas altogether. Or, maybe you think the expected contract price (something approaching or even exceeding Lester’s contract) is just too steep, but that Darvish would be a great add if he can be acquired for something below that rate. (Poll link for app users.)
Should the Cubs Sign Yu Darvish?
Sure, but only if he takes a discount from expectations.
42.06%
(10,497 votes)
Yes, even if it means paying top dollar.
28.35%
(7,075 votes)
No, the Cubs should chase a different top starter.
18.29%
(4,565 votes)
No, the Cubs should not use resources on a top starter.
11.29%
(2,818 votes)
Total Votes: 24,955
Market Notes: Red Sox, Hosmer, Royals, Cards, Donaldson, Mets, Kipnis, A-Gon
Signing Mitch Moreland doesn’t take the Red Sox out of the market for hitting, president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski told reporters including Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. And adding another stick wouldn’t necessarily mean trading away from the current roster to create space, the club’s top baseball decisionmaker added. But it surely does not seem that Boston will sign another first baseman; rather, a DH/corner outfield bat seems the likeliest possibility.
- Boston’s decision seems to take it out of the market for Eric Hosmer, which has raised some eyebrows in Royals country. As Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star writes, there are still many barriers remaining to a return to Kansas City for Hosmer, including the possibility that agent Scott Boras will find a way to bring some new suitors into the picture. But keeping Hosmer in Royals blue for the future now seems more plausible than might have been expected when the organization began giving indication it would rebuild. Of course, even if that comes to pass, the general rebuilding plan will remain, the Star’s Rustin Dodd notes on Twitter.
- The Cardinals appear to be showing more interest in veteran Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson than in Manny Machado of the Orioles, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Nightengale posits that the club may believe it’s better situated to pursue a long-term deal with Donaldson — who’s much older than Machado, though both will hit the open market at the same time — which would increase his appeal. Of course, it’s important to bear in mind there’s still no real indication that Toronto will move Donaldson and the St. Louis front office has suggested recently that it’s not all that keen on giving up significant assets for a rental.
- While there has been some chatter recently connecting the Mets to Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post says that possibility is not as likely as it has come to seem. Especially with Carlos Santana moving on, says Davidoff, the Indians are not particularly inclined to part with Kipnis’s contract for a marginal return. New York is trying to thread the needle in finding an upgrade at the position, with the organization concerned with giving up too much in salary or prospect value to make a deal. As the Post’s Joel Sherman writes, the Mets’ lack of top-end, marketable pre-MLB talent has posed an under-appreciated barrier to its winter activity.
- The Mets, of course, are also eyeing the addition of another option at the first base position. New York had some interest in Moreland, per the above-cited Cafardo piece. And as James Wagner of the New York Times tweets, the Mets intend at least to take a look at the newest entrant onto the open market: Adrian Gonzalez. The veteran will be looking to bounce back after a rough, injury-plagued 2017 season, though he could conceivably bring some upside at a very appealing price.
Hyun Soo Kim Signs With KBO’s LG Twins
Korean outfielder Hyun Soo Kim is heading home, according to Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News, who tweets that Kim has struck a four-year deal with the Korea Baseball Organization’s LG Twins. Kim will reportedly earn 11.5 billion won, which equates to about $10.6MM, in the contract.
Kim, who’ll turn thirty years of age in January, had a strong first MLB season after joining the Orioles on a two-year, $7MM pact. While he functioned mostly as a lefty platoon bat, Kim ran up a strong .302/.382/.420 slash with six home runs over 346 plate appearances. He drew 36 walks against just 51 strikeouts in that span.
Things turned south in 2017, however, as Kim stumbled out of the gates in Baltimore and did not pick up the pace after landing with the Phillies in the middle of the season. Over his 239 total trips to the plate, Kim managed only a .231/.307/.292 slash with a single home run.
While Kim no doubt could at least have landed a minors deal with a decent shot at cracking a MLB roster at some point in 2017, he’ll instead head back to his native Korea. Long a fixture with the Doosan Bears, Kim will look to pick up where he left off before crossing the Pacific. Kim owns a lifetime .318/.406/.488 batting line over ten KBO campaigns.
Minor MLB Transactions: 12/18/17
Here are the latest minor moves from around the game:
- Catcher Eric Fryer is heading to the Phillies on a minors deal with a spring invite, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports on Twitter. Now 32 years of age, Fryer has seen action in each of the past seven MLB campaigns but has only once topped one hundred plate appearances. He spent last year as a little-used backup in St. Louis. Overall, Fryer carries a .232/.320/.300 batting line in his major-league career.
- Righty Erik Davis has inked a minor-league pact with the Brewers, per a club announcement. The 31-year-old had a brief but highly promising debut with the Nats back in 2013, but hasn’t returned to form since ensuing Tommy John surgery. Davis spent the 2017 season pitching at Triple-A for the Diamondbacks organization. over 63 2/3 innings, he worked to a 4.38 ERA with 10.2 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9.
- The Royals have released southpaw Onelki Garcia so that he can pursue an opportunity in Japan, according to MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (via Twitter). Further details are not known at this time. Garcia, 28, made it back to the majors in 2017 for the first time since his brief debut in 2013, though he was knocked around in six frames. In his 85 1/3 upper-minors frames on the year with Kansas City, Garcia pitched to a 4.75 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9.
