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5 Key Stories: 12/24/17 – 12/30/17

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Here are the biggest stories from the past week at MLBTR …

Sep 19, 2017; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Chicago Cubs relief pitcher Wade Davis (71) throws a pitch during the ninth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Rockies complete trio of high-priced relief additions: After committing $27MM apiece to two top setup men, the Rockies went for broke by signing top free agent closer Wade Davis to a three-year, $52MM deal. Davis can lock in yet more money if he’s healthy and holds onto the closer’s role for the third season of the contract, via a vesting player option. All told, it’s a significant commitment — indeed, the deal includes the highest average annual value ever given to a reliever — that confirms the Rox believe they are primed to contend.

Twins star Sano accused of assault: Earlier this week, a photographer made some troubling accusations of assault against young Twins third baseman Miguel Sano. At this point, it is not clear whether legal or league disciplinary action will occur. The incident is being investigated under MLB’s domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy, which gives the commissioner authority to investigate and punish players regardless of arrest or prosecution.

Reds building out bullpen: After two seasons of mostly miserable output from the Cincinnati pitching staff, the Reds entered the offseason in search of a few arms to help turn the tide. While the club does not seem to be gearing up for any major spending, it can probably hope for significant improvements merely by replacing sub-replacement-level output with solid hurlers. That’s likely an element of the thought process in the team’s signing of righty Jared Hughes to a two-year pact. Giving him a multi-year guarantee likely tamped down the annual cost (he’s promised just $4.5MM) and helped draw the veteran to town. It remains to be seen whether further relief upgrades will be pursued, though if so it’s likely they’ll be similarly low-cost acquisitions.

Twins ink bounceback relief candidate: Much like the Rockies, the Twins were a somewhat surprising postseason team in 2017. Both organizations have solid young cores in place but also still admit of a few holes. But while the Rox spend big on premium relief arms, the Minny brass has adopted a somewhat more conservative strategy. Most recently, the club signed veteran southpaw Zach Duke to join aging closer Fernando Rodney in the late-inning mix. More significant additions could also be pursued, but it seems the Twins intend to be a bit more protective of their future balance sheets while still trying to add veterans to the 2018 roster.

Old favorites seek redemption in San Diego: It has been an interesting offseason thus far for the Padres, mostly owing to a surprise pursuit of top free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer (status: unresolved). Perhaps it’s mostly a curiosity at this point, but the organization has also landed a few former stars. After agreeing to take over the contract of third baseman Chase Headley, the Friars went out and struck minor-league pacts with former right-handers Chris Young and Tyson Ross (see here and here). Both of the hurlers will need to pitch their way onto the roster in camp, and Headley could well end up being traded, but it’s still fun to see such notable alums filtering back. As MLBTR’s Jason Martinez noted on Twitter, the Pads could really make things interesting if they found a way to bring back current free agents such as Andrew Cashner, Jake Peavy, and Mat Latos.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Brewers Among Teams To Show Interest In Alex Cobb

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The Brewers are among the MLB organizations to have shown some level of interest in free agent righty Alex Cobb, according to a report from Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter). Per Morosi, Milwaukee has spoken with Cobb’s agency “recently” about the veteran starter. Of course, it’s also far from clear how serious the interest is.

Last we heard, the asking price was still high for Cobb, who even appears to have some hope of securing five guaranteed seasons. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has noted, the surprisingly lofty payday secured by Tyler Chatwood seemingly bodes well for Cobb’s market.

The ongoing delay in free agent signings has many wondering whether some open-market players will end up taking a haircut as against expectations. To this point, however, we’ve yet to see any top-tier free agents settle for contracts that would support such a conclusion.

In Cobb’s case, it seems there’s still wide interest in his services. While the Brewers won’t be expected to bid up a massive payday, they have plenty of money to work with, making them a legitimate potential suitor on paper. The division-rival Cubs have long been cited as a top potential landing spot, with teams like the Rangers, Yankees, Blue Jays, and Orioles among those having shown prior interest.

Prior surgeries continue to represent a possible drag on Cobb’s market, but he is fresh off of a productive and healthy 2017 campaign in which he ran up a 3.50 ERA over 179 1/3 innings. Plus, of course, Cobb has demonstrated the talent for even greater productivity; in 309 2/3 innings over 2013-14, he compiled a 2.82 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9.

Quick Hits: Kimbrel, Royals, Free Agents

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Jayson Stark’s “Strange But True Facts” column is an annual tradition for baseball fans, and Stark is here with the 2017 edition of unusual statistical and factual oddities from the past season.  Highlights include Matt Chapman’s odd do-over on his first career MLB hit, Travis d’Arnaud’s 22-position game on August 16, and the All-Garcia starting outfield deployed by the White Sox on April 14.

Some more from around baseball…

  • Could Craig Kimbrel earn a $100MM free agent contract next offseason?  WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford thinks it could happen, especially after Wade Davis’ three-year, $52MM deal with the Rockies established a new average annual value standard for a closer.  Kimbrel turns 30 in May and is coming off one of his greatest seasons — a 1.43 ERA, 16.4 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 over 69 innings out of the Red Sox bullpen.  Aroldis Chapman’s five-year, $86MM deal with the Yankees from last winter is the largest contract ever given to a relief pitcher, though Chapman signed that deal entering his age-29 season, whereas Kimbrel turns 30 in May.  Kimbrel still stands a decent shot at topping Chapman’s mark, though cracking the $100MM threshold seems like a tall order.
  • The Royals went into the offseason hoping to re-sign maybe one of Eric Hosmer (their top choice), Lorenzo Cain, and Mike Moustakas, though the Kansas City Star’s Rustin Dodd wonders if the team could re-assess its plans given the unexpectedly slow free agent market.  All three players are still available as the calendar turns to January, and in the cases of Hosmer and Moustakas, they seem to be running short on viable landing spots.  Re-signing any of those free agents, however, would cost the Royals compensation draft picks, which are valuable assets for a team that is looking at a rebuild.  Dodd notes that K.C. was able to re-sign Alex Gordon when his free agent market proved to be quieter than expected, though given how Gordon has struggled over the last two years, the Royals probably aren’t thrilled with that comp.
  • One of the reasons behind the lack of free agent action could be that teams are simply more cautious about the risk of spending big on a veteran player, Joel Sherman of the New York Post opines.  Of the 14 current players on free agent deals with a $20MM average annual value and worth more than $100MM in total, only Max Scherzer and Jon Lester seem like clear wins for their teams, while the other 12 players range from questionable investments to outright busts.  Sherman proposes that players should be allowed to become free agents after just four years of service time, arguing that the current free agent setup is “a flawed system” that doesn’t properly compensate players through their prime years.

NL Notes: Clemente, Harper, D’Backs

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New Year’s Eve has long been a somber day in baseball history, as it was on this day in 1972 that Pirates superstar Roberto Clemente was killed in a plane crash at age 38.  The outfielder was personally accompanying a shipment of relief supplies headed from his native Puerto Rico to victims of a recent earthquake in Nicaragua, but the flight tragically crashed just off the P.R. coast.  Clemente’s passing inspired the creation of the Presidential Citizens Medal, the United States’ second-highest civilian honor.  Clemente’s legacy is acknowledged every year by MLB via the Roberto Clemente Award, and there has been speculation that Clemente’s #21 will one day be retired league-wide as a way of honoring his heroism and his iconic status in Latin American baseball.

As we remember one of the game’s true legends, here are some items from the National League…

  • One interesting wild card in the Nationals’ attempts to keep Bryce Harper beyond 2018 could be his older brother Bryan Harper, MASNSports.com’s Byron Kerr writes.  The elder Harper, who just turned 28, is a left-handed reliever who posted strong numbers in 2015-16 for Washington’s Double-A and Triple-A affiliates, with good splits against left-handed batters.  The southpaw is preparing to return to the mound after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October 2016, and there’s at least a chance he could join his younger brother on the Nats roster this season.
  • While Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen has said that the team is comfortable deploying Chris Herrmann, Jeff Mathis, and John Ryan Murphy behind the plate, MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert figures the team has to make an upgrade at catcher before the offseason is out.  The D’Backs are one of the few contenders with a glaring need at catcher, which in my opinion could leave them well-positioned to sign Jonathan Lucroy or Alex Avila on a relative bargain contract, given the two free agents’ relative lack of suitors.  With other needs around the diamond and little payroll space to work with, however, the Snakes still might not have enough to afford Lucroy or Avila at even a discounted price.

MLBTR Originals

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Here’s the roundup of all the original content from the MLBTR writing team through the holiday season…

  • The offseason’s biggest news continues to be the relative lack of news on the free agent front, with most of the top names on the open market still looking for new teams as we head into 2018.  Back on December 19, Jeff Todd noted that only 17 of the names on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list had signed new contracts.  Since that date, only three additional players (Wade Davis, Yonder Alonso, Jhoulys Chacin) have signed, with Davis being the only member of the top 10 to find a new deal.
  • Two of the remaining notables were subjects of the “Free Agent Profile” series, with Kyle Downing profiling Logan Morrison and Tim Dierkes looking at Lance Lynn’s market.
  • Lynn is one of a large number of free agent pitchers who have undergone at least one Tommy John surgery, so Tim’s list of the 20 biggest contracts signed by TJ patients will certainly look quite different after this offseason is complete.
  • The Phillies’ surprise signing of Carlos Santana inspired Tim to look at five recent instances of a seeming non-contender making a big free agent splash.
  • In the latest edition of Free Agent Faceoff, Steve Adams asked the MLBTR readership whether they would rather sign Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta.  60.23% of readers polled chose Darvish in the battle of the winter’s top free agent starters.
  • In other polling news, Connor Byrne asked the readers where Eric Hosmer will sign, Tim made the same query about Arrieta’s next team, while Kyle wondered if any of the top free agents could sign a one-year “pillow contract” rather than a longer-term deal.
  • The “Taking Inventory” series lists the potential remaining trade chips on rebuilding teams, with Steve looking at the Tigers and Kyle focusing on the White Sox and the Marlins.
  • Speaking of Miami, J.T. Realmuto could be the latest Marlins star to be shipped out of town, as Kyle runs through the potential trade market for the catcher.
  • Mark Polishuk outlined each team’s weakest position from 2017 (by bWAR) and what each club has so far done (if anything) to upgrade that position for next season.
  • Several managers and front office executives are known to be entering their last guaranteed year under contract, and Jeff has the breakdown of these teams that could be weighing a change in leadership in 2018.
  • We just passed the two-year anniversary of the trade that sent Aroldis Chapman from the Reds to the Yankees.  Jeff looked back on that deal, which generated quite a bit of off-the-field controversy and ultimately generated more top tier young talent for the Yankees (via their subsequent trade of Chapman to the Cubs) than it did for Cincinnati.

NL Notes: Phillies, Hamels, Difo, Cubs

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Happy birthday to Sandy Koufax, as the legendary Dodgers southpaw turns 82 years old today.  Arm injuries forced Koufax into an early retirement after his age-30 season, bringing an end to arguably the most dominant four-year stretch of pitching in baseball history.  From 1963-66, Koufax posted a 1.86 ERA, 9.3 K/9, and 4.74 K/BB rate over 1192 2/3 innings, capturing three Cy Young Awards and the 1963 NL MVP Award.

Some items from around the National League…

  • Nick Williams seems to be the likeliest of the Phillies outfielders to be used as a trade chip, David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News writes, though there’s also a case to be made for the team to move one of Odubel Herrera or Aaron Altherr.  (Rhys Hoskins almost surely is staying put.)  Given that all three outfielders, and even Hoskins, have their share of question marks and can’t be entirely counted on as sure things going into 2018, Murphy notes that the Phillies might indeed stick to their stated plan of keeping all four players and juggling playing time based on matchups and situations.  Plans could change, of course, if the Phils are required to include one of the players in a trade for a young and controllable starting pitcher.
  • The Phillies are known to be looking for pitching, though NBCSports.com Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury writes that the team could wait until the July trade deadline to make a big addition to the rotation.  Asking prices could be lower for some pitchers by July, or the Phillies could have a better idea of what young players they’d be more comfortable giving up in a trade.  Interestingly, Salisbury notes that Cole Hamels could be targeted by the Phils if the Rangers fall out of contention, as both Hamels and the Phillies would have interest in the 2008 World Series hero returning to Philadelphia.
  • The Nationals rejected trade offers for Wilmer Difo last offseason, and now the young infielder is a key part of the team’s bench and potentially its second baseman of the future, the Washington Post’s Jorge Castillo writes.  Difo held his own filling in for Trea Turner at shortstop last season, and if Difo continues to progress at the plate, the Nats might consider him as a possible second base option if Daniel Murphy leaves in free agency next winter.  If Murphy’s recovery from offseason knee surgery lingers past Opening Day, Difo could get an early audition at the keystone in April.
  • Since Theo Epstein took over the Cubs front office, pitchers drafted by the team have delivered just 30 innings in a Cubs uniform, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma reports (subscription required and recommended).  While Chicago has obviously excelled at acquiring undervalued starting pitching assets in trades, that hasn’t stopped the club from looking to improve on its development of young pitchers, which was one reason Jim Benedict was recently hired as a special assistant within the baseball ops department.

No Extension Talks Between Twins, Brian Dozier

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The Twins have yet to speak to Brian Dozier about a contract extension, the second baseman tells Sid Hartman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.  With Dozier entering the last season of his contract, the two sides have had “zero conversations about after next year,” Dozier said.

The lack of negotiations isn’t necessarily a surprise at this point in the offseason, of course, as most teams generally handle focus on signings, trade talks, and arbitration cases before turning their attention to in-house extensions.  (This winter’s particularly-stalled free agent market could even delay extension business later into Spring Training than usual for some clubs.)  Beyond Dozier, the Twins also have Joe Mauer and Eduardo Escobar slated to hit the open market after the 2018 season, with Ervin Santana and Fernando Rodney also candidates for free agency depending on club options.

Still, Dozier stands out as Minnesota’s top impending free agent priority, though the idea of an extension between the two sides (or even Dozier still being in a Twins uniform entering 2018) seemed far-fetched at this point last year.  Dozier has long been the subject of trade rumors, and at one point in the 2016-17 offseason seemed to be on the verge of being dealt to the Dodgers.  Even last summer, Dozier was one of several Twins veterans the team was weighing as trade chips, though Minnesota eventually rebounded to capture a berth in the AL Wild Card game.

Last season’s surprising success changed the equation for the Twins, who are now exploring ways to build around its young core of talent in the hopes of contending again next year.  As such, keeping Dozier now looks like it could be a possibility, particularly since Minnesota has quite a bit of payroll flexibility beyond the 2018 season.  (Of course, the Twins might add to those future commitments in a significant way this offseason should they land a top free agent pitcher.)

Dozier is finishing up a previous extension with the Twins, a four-year/$20MM deal that covered his final pre-arbitration season and his three years of arbitration eligibility.  That contract ended up being a nice bargain for the Twins through Dozier’s arb years, as he has continued to perform as one of the game’s best second basemen, particularly over the last two seasons.  Dozier has hit .269/.349/.521 with 76 homers and 34 steals (out of 43 chances) over 1396 PA since the start of the 2016 season, accumulating 10.9 fWAR over that period.  From 2014-17, Dozier has been worth 18.8 fWAR, a total topped by only 13 other position players in all of baseball.

Dozier turns 31 in May, so an extension carries some risk as it would be covering a potential decline period as he leaves his prime.  The lack of return on the Twins’ extensions for Mauer and Phil Hughes could also make the team wary about another long-term deal.  On the flip side, Dozier has been a durable player, and 2017 was his most polished season yet as a hitter, with Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan noting Dozier’s increased success at hitting to the opposite field.

In his preview of the Twins’ offseason, MLBTR’s Steve Adams cited Daniel Murphy’s three-year, $37.5MM deal with the Nationals or Justin Turner’s four-year, $64MM Dodgers contract as potential talking points for a Dozier extension, with Turner’s deal standing out as the better comparable.  One interesting wrinkle could be the fact that, without an extension, Dozier would be competing with several other superstar players in the very crowded 2018-19 free agent class.  Dozier would have an advantage, however, as the clear top option on the second base market.

If an extension isn’t worked out, the Twins will likely explore trading Dozier at the deadline if the team falls out of contention.  For now, however, it looks like the Twins aren’t moving the second baseman, which is something Dozier appreciates after so much past speculation.  “It’s kind of funny how winning can change a lot of different things as far as offseason trade talks,” Dozier said.  “I recognize it’s a business. We all do. But it has been pretty relieving not hearing my name every single day about where I might be traded. That’s a good thing.”

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/30/17

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Some minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Padres released right-hander Jake Smith earlier this month, according to Baseball America’s Matt Eddy.  Originally a 48th-round pick for the Giants in the 2011 draft, Smith has a 3.23 ERA, 11.9 K/9 and 2.86 K/BB rate over 253 2/3 minor league innings, working as a reliever in all but five of his 186 career appearances.  He managed just 26 2/3 IP in 2017, however, with injuries limiting his time on the field.  Smith’s only MLB experience consists of four innings for San Diego in 2016.

Rockies Notes: Davis, Bridich, Holland, Arenado, Harrison

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The signings of Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw, and Jake McGee have given the Rockies a deep and experienced relief corps, though ESPN.com’s Keith Law (Insider subscription required and recommended) wonders if the team needed to go to such expensive lengths to reinforce its bullpen.  Other teams who have relied on excellent pens in recent seasons, Law notes, have generally used their own homegrown arms or low-cost converted starters as relievers rather than sign several pricey free agents.  Law also isn’t a fan of the three-year, $52MM Davis contract in general, citing Davis’ injuries and dip in performance over the last two seasons from his 2014-15 dominance.

Here’s more on the Rockies from GM Jeff Bridich’s chat with reporters (including MLB.com’s Thomas Harding and the Denver Post’s Nick Groke) on Friday…

  • Despite the mutual interest between Colorado and former closer Greg Holland, the two sides weren’t able to reach agreement on a reunion, with Bridich saying two weeks ago that the team had made Holland a “strong offer” to re-sign.  It seems as if the Rockies then made a swift pivot to Davis, as while Davis and the team had been linked earlier this winter, Bridich said the deal was made just within the last week.
  • After so heavily remaking the bullpen, the Rockies are likely done with pitching additions altogether.  “I’d be very surprised if we added another reliever or a starter,” Bridich said.
  • The next step would seem to be addressing needs in the corner outfield or at first base.  In Harding’s words, Bridich was “open, but non-committal” about the idea of re-signing Carlos Gonzalez, with the GM simply noting that Gonzalez was “part of the market.”
  • While Bridich didn’t put a timetable on extension talks with Nolan Arenado, “there definitely are conversations that will happen” about locking up the star third baseman.  Teams generally wait until Spring Training or until significant offseason business has been concluded to discuss extensions with their players, and the negotiations with Arenado will no doubt be particularly in-depth given the huge money needed to keep him at Coors Field.  Arenado is scheduled to hit free agency after the 2019 season, when he’ll still just be 28 years old and in the midst of his prime.  Arenado and the Rockies agreed to a two-year, $29.5MM deal last offseason to cover two arbitration years, and Arenado has one final arb-eligible season remaining in 2019 due to his Super Two status.
  • “I’m not sure where the Josh Harrison stuff comes from,” Bridich said in regards to rumors connecting the Rockies to the versatile Pirates infielder/outfielder.  It should be noted that this isn’t technically a denial of any trade interest, though Harrison is perhaps a better fit on a team that could make fuller use of his multi-positional ability.  The Rockies have Arenado and DJ LeMahieu locked in at third and second base, respectively, so Harrison would spend most of his time as a corner outfielder if he did land on Colorado’s roster.  (Then again, given that the Rox did sign Ian Desmond last winter with the intent of using him as a first baseman, maybe we shouldn’t rule out any outside-the-box ideas in regards to this team.)

How Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2017

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While this winter has been notably thin on major transactions, several clubs have already made big strides to shore up the positions that plagued them last season.  Baseball Reference breaks down how all 30 teams fared in 2017 on a position-by-position basis, as ranked by bWAR.  Here’s a rundown of what each team has done to address its most glaring weak point…

Angels (DH, -1.3 bWAR): Shohei Ohtani’s attempt to be a two-way player in the big leagues will be one of baseball’s most fascinating stories in 2018, and the Angels are intent on giving the Japanese star some DH at-bats on days he isn’t pitching.  Even if it takes a while for Ohtani to adjust to MLB pitching, there’s really nowhere to go but up for the Angels at the DH spot in the wake of Albert Pujols’ career-worst year.  The Halos can only hope that the slugger (owed $114MM through 2021) still has something left in the tank as he enters his age-38 season.  One plus is that Pujols has enjoyed a normal offseason this year, as opposed to surgeries and rehabs in the previous two winters, and L.A. hopes to even deploy Pujols at first base for a couple of games per week to accommodate Ohtani at designated hitter.

Astros (DH, 0.5 bWAR): Age finally caught up with Carlos Beltran in 2017, as the veteran struggled in what ended up being his final Major League season.  With Beltran now retired, the Astros plan to use Evan Gattis as their primary designated hitter, though you could see several players rotated through the DH spot to provide rest and at-bats to Houston’s wide array of talented hitters.

Athletics (Catcher, -0.2 bWAR): Bruce Maxwell, Josh Phegley, and Stephen Vogt (who is now a Brewer) didn’t give the A’s much behind the plate last year, and the position was further complicated after Maxwell was arrested on charges of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon and disorderly conduct.  While GM David Forst said in November that the team still expects Maxwell to be its primary catcher next season, Oakland stands out as a potential dark horse candidate for a catching upgrade.  Jonathan Lucroy and Alex Avila are notable names on the free agent market, and J.T. Realmuto seems to be available if the A’s are willing to meet the Marlins’ very high asking price.

Blue Jays (Right field, -1.4 bWAR): The Jose Bautista era ended on a sour note, as the longtime slugger delivered sub-replacement numbers in his final season in Toronto.  Teoscar Hernandez is the favorite for the right field job after his strong late-season debut with the Jays, though it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Toronto make a big acquisition for either corner outfield slot, especially since the team’s contention window is already closing.  The Blue Jays have reportedly checked in on several notable outfielders, including J.D. Martinez, Lorenzo Cain, and Jay Bruce.

Braves (Left field, -1.6 bWAR): This was the lowest bWAR of any left field situation in the game last season, largely thanks to Matt Kemp’s sub-replacement level performance.  Kemp, however, is no longer in the mix after a unique five-player trade with the Dodgers that re-arranged both teams’ salary commitments and created a much-needed opening in Atlanta’s outfield for star prospect Ronald Acuna.  It isn’t clear if Acuna will play in left or right field when he arrives in the bigs, so veteran Nick Markakis (if he isn’t himself traded) could be taking over for Kemp in left field on Opening Day.

Brewers (Center field, 1.0 bWAR): Keon Broxton is the incumbent with Brett Phillips on hand as a platoon option, though star prospect Lewis Brinson is expected to work his way into the lineup in 2018.  While Milwaukee’s young center field mix didn’t produce much in 2017, therefore, the team is still quite comfortable with the position going forward.  Broxton has even received some trade attention, so it’s possible the Brew Crew could clear a path for Brinson to make an even earlier impact.

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