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AL West Notes: Rangers, A’s Scouting, Pinder, Ohtani

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The Rangers and the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters of the Japan Pacific League have announced a partnership. Gerry Fraley of SportsDay wrote a full report on the news, noting that the partnership will include exchanging of “ideas and information” about business, ballpark construction, scouting and player development. Notably, the Fighters will also send one of their own instructors both to Rangers spring training camp and to travel with the team during the regular season. The partnership may have evolved from the depth of scouting personnel that Texas deployed to scout players such as Yu Darvish, Yoshinori Tateyama and Shohei Ohtani. “We look forward to helping each other in a variety of ways,” Rangers President Jon Daniels said of the new alliance. It’s fair to wonder whether this partnership will allow Texas to get its foot in the door with future Fighters talent interested in making the transition to MLB.

More items from the American League’s western clubs…

  • The Athletics recently hired 24-year-old Haley Alvarez as their scouting coordinator; she’s the first woman to be hired by the club as a talent evaluator. Alyson Footer of MLB.com wrote a piece on the subject detailing the former intern’s rise to her new position. Alvarez’ journey to scouting began with baseball operations experience she gained during her college days at the University of Virginia, followed by internships with the Commissioner’s Office and the Boston Red Sox organization. Following an internship with the A’s, GM David Forst offered to sponsor her for scout school. Though Alvarez didn’t even know such a thing existed, she was excited about the opportunity, and used it to fuel her career path. She’s now using modern analytics and new advanced technology to help the A’s bring in talent. “You don’t have to have played baseball, which is a common misconception,” says Alvarez, who hopes to inspire other women to pursue career paths in baseball operations.
  • In other Athletics news, Jane Lee of MLB.com reports that sophomore Chad Pinder is preparing to play first base for the club on occasion. Because Ryon Healy was shipped to Seattle this offseason, the club needs a backup first baseman. “I think the last time I played first base was in eighth grade,” said Pinder, though he did take ground balls during practice there last season. The Oakland utilityman started at six different positions for the club last season while hitting .232/.292/.457 across 309 plate appearances with 15 homers and 42 RBI. The righty-hitter struck out in nearly 30% of his plate appearances.
  • Angels GM Billy Eppler is headed to Japan in order to help with Shohei Ohtani’s transition process, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes. He’ll be bringing three other Angels personnel with him. “We spent so much time saying what we’re about to Ohtani and putting things forward for him,” said Eppler. “The main purpose of this is now to get his input and feedback on things.” Eppler also added that Ohtani is scheduled to get on a mound in two weeks; there don’t seem to be any concerns about his health at this time.

Market Chatter: Marlins, Mets, Cobb, JDM, Astros, Hamilton, Royals

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While the Marlins have reportedly been holding talks regarding catcher J.T. Realmuto and outfielder Christian Yelich, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic says that four rival general managers expressed doubt” that a trade will actually take place involving these young assets. Whether that opinion is based on the reportedly astronomical asking prices or other factors isn’t immediately clear. There’s some suggestion from some of Rosenthal’s sources, though, that the Fish are concerned with perception and won’t make a deal unless it seems the offer was overwhelming. That seems largely unlikely, but the already less-than-rosy returns on the initial months of the new ownership have been marred further by reports from the Miami Herald about the incoming plans. Most recently, Barry Jackson reported that CEO Derek Jeter stands to receive a $5MM salary with multi-million-dollar bonuses if he can deliver profitability to the ownership group (of which he is a part). PR considerations aside, there’s certainly a compelling case to deal Realmuto and Yelich rather than take the risk of holding them. Rosenthal argues the organization ought to simply follow through on the rebuilding steps it has taken already, using this offseason as the time to cash in both of those quality young players.

Here are some more market notes:

  • The Mets are said to be checking in on the market for third basemen, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. The report suggests that the New York organization is positioning itself as a landing spot for Mike Moustakas or Todd Frazier if they reduce their current asking prices. Similarly, the club has checked in on backstop Jonathan Lucroy as well as left-handed-hitting first basemen Adam Lind and Logan Morrison. (Those two potential first base options, of course, occupy quite different market segments given the former’s age and the latter’s breakout 2017 season.) All told, it still seems the Mets are broadly canvassing the market for possible upgrades, but looking to do so with relatively limited financial resources still available.
  • Jon Heyman of Fan Rag has a variety of interesting notes in a look at the top remaining free agents and other notes from around the game. Free agent righty Alex Cobb is “willing” to take a four-year deal at a $70MM guarantee, says Heyman. Of course, that’s also a significant amount more than MLBTR, at least, projected he’d earn on the open market. It would appear there’s still some market development left to go between Cobb and his suitors. Of course, there are also a few higher-regarded starters left whose own situations may need to be resolved first. Meanwhile, fellow free agent righty Andrew Cashner is reportedly angling for a three-year pact. While the 31-year-old did manage a 3.40 ERA in 166 2/3 innings in 2017, teams will be wary given that he carried only a meager 4.6 K/9 on the year.
  • Years are also at issue for J.D. Martinez, Heyman explains. Red Sox president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski is not interested in offering more than five years, but Heyman suggests that agent Scott Boras could yet try to make his case at the ownership level. The “word is there are other five-year offers,” Heyman adds, though it remains hard to imagine which other reportedly interested club would be able to compete financially with the Sox for Martinez.
  • Heyman also checks in on the closer market. The Astros, he notes, remain interested in adding a high-end, late-inning arm. It’s not entirely clear if they are a realistic suitor for Greg Holland, but in theory he’d be an option. Holland is said to have set out in search of five years in free agency. That never really seemed likely, as he’s 32 years of age and had at least a few late-season stumbles in his first campaign back from Tommy John surgery. Of course, Holland is still expected to secure a significant contract, though a three-year arrangement may be likeliest at this point.
  • Though the Reds continue to engage in discussions regarding center fielder Billy Hamilton, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick notes on Twitter that there’s one major potential roadblock. Club owner Bob Castellini is quite hesitant to part with Hamilton, it seems. While there’s no indication that the switch-hitting speed demon is completely off limits, the stance may make it harder to get a deal done.
  • As the Royals weigh their options at short, it seems the team is targeting some veterans that figure to be available on lower-cost deals. Incumbent Alcides Escobar remains an option, says Heyman, while Kansas City is also said to be favorably disposed toward Ryan Goins.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/5/18

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Here are Friday’s minor moves from around the game…

  • The Rangers have inked a minor-league pact with right-hander Brandon Cumpton, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning news (Twitter link). Arm troubles have limited the 29-year-old of late, but he did return to professional action in 2017 after a two-year hiatus. Over 37 1/3 innings, Cumpton pitched to a 3.86 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9.
  • As Cumpton leaves the Pirates organization, two other right-handers are on their way in, according to John Dreker of Pirates Prospects. Tyler Jones and Bo Schultz have each joined the Bucs on minor-league arrangements, per the report. The former will be looking to crack the majors for the first time. He has often produced quality strikeout rates in the upper minors but only managed a 4.38 ERA in 63 2/3 innings at Triple-A last year with the Yankees organization. As for Schultz, the former Blue Jays reliever will be looking to return from Tommy John surgery. Schultz turned in a useful 2015 season but faltered in the ensuing season — he worked to a 5.51 ERA in his 16 1/3 MLB innings — before going under the knife.
  • Righty William Cuevas will join the Red Sox organization on a minor-league pact, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets. The 27-year-old has spent the bulk of his career in the Boston organization but played elsewhere in 2017. He worked to a 4.85 ERA in 104 Triple-A frames in 2017, with 7.0 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9. Cuevas has twice cracked the majors, but only briefly.
  • Yet another right-handed hurler, Preston Guilmet, is heading to the Cardinals on a minors deal, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. He’ll get a spring invite and can earn at a $600K rate in the majors. The 30-year-old Guilmet has seen parts of three seasons in the majors but only has 23 career innings at the game’s highest level. He has put up some interesting results of late, though, posting a 2.77 ERA with 10.8 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9 in 68 1/3 Triple-A frames in 2016 before heading to Japan and running a 3.62 ERA with 9.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in his 54 2/3 innings for the Yakult Swallows (over four starts and 28 relief appearances).

Earlier Updates

  • The Tigers have agreed to a minor league deal with former Cardinals shortstop Pete Kozma, reports SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (on Twitter). Kozma, 30 in April, split the 2017 season between the Rangers and Yankees organizations and logged 51 plate appearances in the Majors, though he batted just .111/.200/.178 in that small sample. Long considered an excellent defender with a light bat, Kozma is a career .215/.282/.285 hitter in parts of six MLB seasons but also comes with a career +11 Defensive Runs Saved mark and +9 Ultimate Zone Rating in 1450 innings at shortstop.
  • The Braves announced yesterday that right-handed reliever Luke Jackson cleared waivers and was sent outright to Triple-A Gwinnett. Once a well-regarded prospect in the Rangers system, the now-26-year-old Jackson posted an ERA north of 6.00 and walked 16 batters in 24 1/3 innings with Gwinnett last season. He actually performed better in the Majors, logging a 4.62 ERA in 50 1/3 frames, albeit with pedestrian averages of 5.9 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 with a 45.2 percent grounder rate. Jackson does have a history of missing bats in the upper minors and did average 94.7 mph on his heater last year while running up a 10.2 percent swinging-strike rate, so there’s some hope that he could yet figure things out.

Padres Re-Sign Craig Stammen

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The Padres have struck a two-year $4.5MM deal with righty Craig Stammen, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (Twitter links). He can earn $100K for ever five appearances between twenty and fifty, with another $150K apiece upon reaching fifty-five and sixty games, per Bob Nightengle of USA Today (via Twitter). The sides were said to be in “serious talks” earlier tonight, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter).

[RELATED: Updated Padres Depth Chart]

Stammen, 33, was among the solid relief arms we cited recently as still being available, but he has now joined quite a few of his bullpen brethren in reaching agreement on a multi-year deal. He’ll return to San Diego, where he enjoyed a nice bounceback season in 2017.

Long a multi-inning staple in the Nationals’ pen, Stammen was severely limited by arm troubles in 2015 and 2016. But he returned to form in a familiar role after earning his way onto the Padres roster after signing a minors pact.

In 80 1/3 innings over sixty appearances, Stammen worked to a 3.14 ERA with 8.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and a 51.6% groundball rate — as well as a career-worst 1.34 HR/9 home run rate. With his typical ~92 mph fastball combo, paired mostly with a slider and curve, Stammen managed an 11.4% swinging-strike rate that sits comfortably within the range he carried during his prior years as a successful reliever.

Red Sox Avoid Arbitration With Steven Wright

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The Red Sox have avoided arbitration with right-hander Steven Wright, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Wright is slated to earn a $1.1MM salary in his first season of eligibility.

That payday slots in just below the $1.2MM that MLBTR had projected Wright to earn. The knuckler seems to be the odds-on favorite to earn the fifth starter’s role for the Red Sox, barring a surprise outside acquisition.

First, though, he’ll have to show he’s healthy and back in form. Wright’s 2017 season was cut short by knee issues that ultimately required surgery. He ended up taking the ball only five times on the year.

Quite different concerns arose earlier in the offseason when Wright was arrested following a domestic dispute (though there’s no indication it ever became physical). While the league is still investigating the incident, the legal matter has been “retired.”

Boston will hope that Wright can return to something approach the quality he showed in 2016, when a breakout first half earned him an All-Star bid. In 156 2/3 innings over 24 starts that year, Wright worked to a 3.33 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.

Arbitration Breakdown: Khris Davis

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2018 projections are available right here. We have already covered Manny Machado’s arbitration breakdown and Mookie Betts’s arbitration breakdown. Full 2018 projected arbitration salaries for every player are also available here at MLBTR.

Khris Davis is projected for a healthy raise of $6.1 million up to an $11.1 million salary due to his impressive 43 home runs this past year. With 110 RBI, but only a .247 average, the main case for Davis getting a big raise is definitely those home runs.

Home runs are notoriously important for arbitration, and are by far the main driver (along with playing time) of raises according to my model. However, this past season set a league record with 6,105 total home runs—this was 26 percent higher than the average from the last five years. So when I look at players with similar totals over the last five years, it is unclear whether an arbitration panel (or teams and agents that are negotiating in the shadow of what an arbitration panel would say) would treat home runs from Davis as similar to other players with the same number as home runs, or as someone with maybe 26 percent fewer home runs. My model does not adjust for league run environment in this way; in general the data has shown that run environment is not a big consideration in arbitration. Hitters in high scoring years benefit from being compared to hitters in lower scoring years, and pitchers in low scoring years benefit from being compared to pitchers in high scoring years.

Deflating Davis’ home run total by 26 percent would put him at 34 home runs, so it would still be a solid season. Chances are that a panel would view Davis as closer to a 40-homer guy (as would Davis’ reps and the A’s during negotiations in the shadow of how a panel would treat him), especially because the Oakland Coliseum deflates home runs, somewhat neutralizing the effect of the higher home run environment.

Only three guys entering their second years of arbitration have hit 40 home runs in the last five years: Two years ago, Josh Donaldson entered arbitration with a .297 average, along with 41 home runs and 123 RBI. His case seems superior to Davis’, mainly because of the fifty point batting average advantage. Thus, Donaldson’s $7.35 million raise seems like a likely ceiling for Khris Davis. Going back four years, we see homonym comparable Chris Davis getting a $7.05 million raise with 53 home runs and a .286 average, along with 138 RBIs; he seems like a ceiling as well. Nolan Arenado hit 41 home runs going into arbitration last year, but he also had a very high average (.294), so his $6.75 million raise seems like a ceiling too. So it is likely that the model is right to place Davis closer to $6 million than $7 million.

It is tough to find floors, but a couple potentials are Lucas Duda and Brandon Moss. Both hit in the .250s but with only 30 home runs, and got raises around $2.5 million. They are clearly well below where Davis should end up.

There is a large range of possibilities there. I think the model is probably as good a guess as any on this case, and I would look for Davis to land around $11 million. But I would probably think $10 million is more likely than $12 million based on the precedent from players like Arenado, Donaldson, and Chris Davis.

Padres Likely To Sign Right-Hander Kazuhisa Makita

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The Padres have emerged as the favorite to sign Japanese right-hander Kazuhisa Makita, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). The 33-year-old Makita, a submarine reliever, is on his way to San Diego for a physical, according to a report from Yahoo Japan.

At the time Shohei Ohtani was posted for MLB clubs, it was announced that Makita, too, would be posted for teams by year’s end, though details on his posting were never announced to the public. It’s not clear how many teams placed bids on Makita, but it’s clear that the Padres matched whatever release fee was set by the Seibu Lions and have agreed to a deal with the intriguing veteran right-hander.

Makita was the Pacific League Rookie of the Year back in 2011, and he owns an excellent 2.83 ERA in 921 1/3 career innings. After moving to the bullpen full time in 2016, he’s posted a minuscule 1.91 ERA in nearly 150 innings.  However, Makita also generates an abnormally low number of strikeouts for a pitcher with his success, averaging just five punchouts per nine innings over the course of his pro career in Japan. To his credit, he’s done a masterful job of limiting walks, issuing  just 19 unintentional free passes over his past 147 1/3 innings, albeit with 13 hit batters in that time as well.

That said, Makita would hardly be the only reliever in baseball who thrives on weak contact and heavy ground-ball rates despite an abundance of missed bats. Brad Ziegler, another sidearm specialist, has made a career out of that skill set and took home a hefty two-year contract last offseason as a result. Brandon Kintzler throws from a conventional arm angle but stands out as another reliever that has risen to relative prominence despite a lack of strikeouts.

Brewers To Sign Boone Logan

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Lefty reliever Boone Logan has agreed to a one-year deal with the Brewers, reports Adam McCalvy of MLB.com (Twitter links). Logan will be guaranteed $2.5MM on the deal, which comes in the form of a $1.875MM base salary plus a $625K buyout on a $4.125MM option for the 2019 season. Logan can also earn up to $3.2MM worth of incentives in each year of the deal. He’s represented by Hub Sports Management.

[RELATED: Updated Brewers Depth Chart]

Milwaukee was light on left-handed bullpen help for much of the 2017 season and, at multiple points throughout the year, didn’t have a lefty in its bullpen at all. The 33-year-old Logan will give the Brew Crew an experienced option to help remedy that situation in 2018; it’s quite possible that he’ll be joined by young southpaw Josh Hader, who excelled in a relief role last year. Milwaukee could also return Hader to a starting role in ’18, though that could be dependent on what moves are yet to come for GM David Stearns and his staff.

Last season with the Indians, Logan hit the disabled list with a strained lat muscle in late July, and that injury ultimately proved to be season-ending in nature. He wound up tossing just 21 innings in 38 appearances as a lefty specialist in Cleveland, working to a 4.71 ERA. That said, Logan racked up a dozen strikeouts per nine against 3.9 walks per nine along with a 50 percent ground-ball rate in that time and has generally been a quality relief piece over the past eight seasons, with last year’s injury-shortened campaign and a dreadful 2014 season (6.84 ERA for the Rockies) standing out as notable exceptions.

Logan has long offered tantalizing skills, even if the results haven’t always quite matched. He has long boasted well-above-average swinging-strike rates — never higher than last year’s 18.5% rate — with a heater that sits around 94 mph and a heavily used, generally devastating slider. He has registered eleven or more strikeouts per nine in each of the past six campaigns. Of late, Logan has also generated quality groundball numbers as well (around 50% in each of the past two seasons).

Nevertheless, Logan owns a less-than-exciting 4.47 ERA in over 400 career MLB innings. No doubt that’s due in some part to the fact that he has never really figured out right-handed hitters. When pitching without the platoon advantage, Logan has coughed up a .286/.373/.472 cumulative batting line, with a K/BB ratio less than half that he has maintained against same-handed hitters.

Given the relatively meager commitment this contract represents, the Brewers will likely not feel much pressure to extend Logan beyond his area of greatest function — that is, entering to face tough lefties but not being asked to serve in a general setup capacity in high-leverage spots. Certainly, Logan won’t occupy much space on the organization’s payroll ledger, which still seems to offer quite a bit of room for additions for 2018 and beyond.

Yankees To Sign Jace Peterson

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The Yankees have agreed to a minors pact with infielder Jace Peterson, according to SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter). The 27-year-old will receive an invitation to MLB camp this spring and can earn at a $900K rate in the majors, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets.

Peterson, 27, figures to have a chance at earning a role in the Yankees’ infield rotation, which remains in flux after the organization dealt away veterans Chase Headley and Starlin Castro earlier this winter. It’s still possible that the organization will add some significant pieces, but Peterson could contend for a reserve position regardless.

The Braves could have retained Peterson via arbitration at a projected rate of just $1.1MM. But Atlanta decided it was time to move on after a year in which he slashed just .215/.318/.317 over 215 plate appearances.

If things work out, the Yanks could yet control Peterson for two or more seasons through the arb process. Peterson has just 3.003 years of service, so if he spends a bit of time in the minors to open the year, it’s possible he’d still have three years of control ahead of him.

It’s worth remembering that Peterson was not long ago considered a quality prospect. And he did turn in a .254/.350/.366 output, with 52 walks against 69 strikeouts, over 408 plate appearances in 2016. Peterson has also shown wide platoon splits; while that doesn’t bode well for his potential to one day turn into a regular, it does suggest that he could be more useful to an organization that is able to pair him with other players.

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