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Central Notes: Duffy, Cubs, Bauer

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Here’s the latest from the game’s central divisions:

  • Royals lefty Danny Duffy says he is throwing pain free after an offseason elbow clean-up, as MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports. “Honestly, I had forgotten what it felt like to throw without any pain or discomfort,” says Duffy. That’s good news for Kansas City, as the organization will expect the southpaw to lead an uncertain staff in 2018 and beyond — unless, that is, he isn’t traded at some point. Other organizations would no doubt have interest in Duffy’s reasonable contract ($61MM through 2021), though we haven’t seen any indication that the Royals are likely to move the 29-year-old this winter.
  • Over at The Athletic, Patrick Mooney has a pair of articles (subscription links) regarding the market’s two top pitchers. The Cubs have plenty of money left to work with, he notes, and have seemingly remained engaged with Yu Darvish for much of the winter. That said, there are still alternatives for both team and player; Mooney says the Cubs have other scenarios in mind and notes the possibility of mystery teams in Darvish’s market. It’s less clear, Mooney suggests, that there’s a realistic path back to Chicago for Jake Arrieta. As MLBTR’s 2018 Free Agent Tracker shows, Darvish and Arrieta are just a few of the many starters still available; remarkably, the Cubs’ early agreement with Tyler Chatwood still paces this winter’s market for rotation contracts.
  • The Indians are readying for an arbitration hearing with righty Trevor Bauer, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer writes. Cleveland is utilizing a file-and-trial approach, says Hoynes, meaning a panel will decide whether the righty plays for $5.3MM or $6.52MM in the coming season. The results won’t just determine whether Bauer can pick up an additional $1.22MM for the coming season; his 2018 salary will also set a base rate for raises in his final two seasons of arb eligibility. As always, you can keep track of all the arbitration developments with MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker.

Latest On Pursuit Of Yu Darvish

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Jan. 23: The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney writes that there’s “a sense” that Darvish’s talks with interested parties have gained momentum recently. Moreover, Mooney writes that Darvish’s options are “not limited to the teams identified publicly” — meaning the Cubs, Twins, Rangers, Brewers, Dodgers and Yankees. Darvish remains a focus for the Cubs, according to Mooney, who adds that a reunion with Arrieta “appears to be a long shot.”

Meanwhile, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that a rival exec who has recently been in contact with the Twins expressed some doubt about Minnesota’s willingness to sign Darvish if it means pushing  into the $150MM territory.

Jan. 22, 10:45pm: The Cubs are “having active talks” with Darvish, according to a report from the Associated Press. That said, it’s also clear from the report that there is no agreement in place.

Speculation surrounding the connection between Darvish and the Cubs already increased earlier tonight, as it emerged that the club has a deal in place with catcher Chris Gimenez — who once forged a strong bond with Darvish when the two played with the Rangers.

2:01pm: Free agent righty Yu Darvish has received “at least” one five-year offer, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Crasnick does not specify if the five-year offer is the one which he’s reportedly received from the Brewers, though Milwaukee is indeed one of the teams in the mix for Darvish, per the report. The Twins, Rangers, Cubs and Dodgers are also in play at the moment, he adds.

Earlier this month, Darvish was reportedly choosing among six teams — the Twins, Rangers, Cubs, Yankees and Astros, with one mystery team added to the bunch by Darvish himself (on Twitter). The Dodgers were later reported to remain in the mix for Darvish, and it now appears that the Brewers have joined the pursuit while the Astros are out of the picture after their acquisition of Gerrit Cole.

There’s no mention of the dollars in Crasnick’s report, and the lack of context makes it difficult to assess the situation. Much has been made this offseason of teams preferring to sign free agents to shorter-term deals at a higher annual value, and if that’s the case with Darvish’s five-year offer, then perhaps the overall value of the deal isn’t that far from early offseason expectations. (Many pundits, MLBTR included, projected six years for Darvish at the beginning of the offseason.) If the AAV is on the low end of the spectrum, however, then it perhaps isn’t difficult to see why Darvish and his reps at Wasserman have yet to jump on the contract.

With just about three weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, there are still well over 100 free agents that need to find homes, so at some point one would have to imagine that either agents or clubs will begin to blink, setting the stage for a flurry of activity. There’s no evidence that Darvish and his agents are close to doing so at this juncture, though it stands to reason that his signing could have a trickle-down effect of sorts. Many of the same teams vying for his services have been linked to Alex Cobb and Jake Arrieta, and once those pieces fall into place, the remaining free-agent starters on the market could conceivably begin to come off the board.

Giants Still Monitoring Outfield Market, Don’t Plan To Exceed Luxury Tax Barrier

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The Giants shored up their outfield mix with yesterday’s addition of Austin Jackson on a two-year, $6MM contract — threading the luxury tax needle by adding a veteran that serves as an upgrade while still squeezing in just south of the $197MM barrier. That doesn’t leave much room for further upgrades, but executive vice president of baseball ops Brian Sabean and GM Bobby Evans tell reporters that the Giants are still open to supplementing their outfield (links via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area and John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle).

Notably, Sabean suggests that Jackson was “probably not” signed to be the team’s everyday center fielder. “I don’t know that in his recent history he’s been able to go out there in that fashion,” Sabean says of Jackson. San Francisco is still exploring some low-salary trade options, and prospect Steven Duggar remains a candidate to win the job (if not in Spring Training, certainly later in the season). Duggar, though, has just 232 minor league games under his belt, with only 60 of those coming in Double-A and just 13 in Triple-A.

San Francisco remains confident in its ability to acquire an additional outfielder via trade, Pavlovic writes. That’ll likely require prying loose a pre-arbitration player making near the league minimum, as the Giants are now within about $2.1MM of the luxury threshold (per Cot’s Contracts). Such assets are the types with which teams are typically loath to part, though the Brewers have reportedly been exploring trade scenarios involving their potential outfield surplus, with names like Keon Broxton and Brett Phillips circulating on the rumor mill.

The waiver circuit could present another option for the Giants as rosters are shuffled leading up to Spring Training; numerous players with some degree of big league experience figure to become available in coming weeks as teams clear roster space for veteran additions. That was the manner by which the Tigers plucked Mikie Mahtook from the Rays last year, acquiring him for a player to be named later and enjoying a fairly productive year out of the former first-rounder. (Speculatively speaking, Mahtook himself could be an option for the Giants, as the rebuilding Tigers will likely be willing to listen on virtually any player.)

If the Giants don’t succeed in landing another option to take over in center field, it seems that Jackson, Duggar, Austin Slater and Gorkys Hernandez will vie for time in center field to open the season. At the very least, it wouldn’t come as much of a surprise to the Giants add a left-handed-hitting veteran on a minor league deal. Jackson, Hernandez, Hunter Pence and Andrew McCutchen all swing from the right side of the dish, so adding a lefty to create more matchup flexibility in the event that the left-handed-hitting Duggar opens the season in the minors seems logical.

Brewers Reportedly Make Offer For Christian Yelich

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6:30pm: The two sides have indeed been discussing Yelich, tweets Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, but Milwaukee is just one of many teams in the running. Talks between Milwaukee and Miami are not in advanced stages, per Frisaro, who adds that Brinson is a target for the Marlins in talks. That’s hardly a surprise — the Marlins figure to ask any team for its top prospect (and quite a bit more) — but there’s no indication to date that the Brewers are willing to part with the touted 23-year-old.

3:11pm: The Brewers have made an offer for Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich and are showing “strong interest” in him, according to Craig Mish of SiriusXM Fantasy (via Twitter). Unsurprisingly, other teams are also still said to be involved in pursuit of Yelich.

Milwaukee’s involvement is a bit of a surprise at first glance, as the organization is overflowing with quality young outfielders and has been connected mostly to pitching this winter. Adding Yelich, though, might fill their opening in center field — assuming that Domingo Santana and Ryan Braun would continue to occupy the corners — while condensing and moving up the timeline of their overall talent pool.

Of course, the Brewers aren’t exactly hurting for options in center. The team can still utilize Keon Broxton there and/or call upon top youngsters Brett Phillips and Lewis Brinson. Clearly, though, it’s not a pressing area of need, so it may well be that the club is mostly looking into the possibility in case there’s an opportunity to achieve value.

Milwaukee, though, has been said to be entertaining a number of possibilities in recent weeks. They’ve been linked to Lorenzo Cain, another less than obvious fit on paper, while simultaneously exploring trades of players such as Broxton and Santana. The Brewers also remain connected to all of the top names on the free-agent market, having reportedly made a recent contract offer to Yu Darvish. Clearly, GM David Stearns and his staff are keeping an open mind as they look to improve upon last season’s 86 wins and continue to vie for the NL Central crown, alongside both the Cubs and the Cardinals.

Yelich’s steady production, appealing contract, and youth make him a sensible fit for any number of organizations. With the Marlins entering a rebuilding period, it seems clear he’s available, though the asking price assuredly will be extreme. Miami can control Yelich for another five years at a total of just $58MM, with the fifth year of that pact serving as a club option. Yelich’s agent, Joe Longo of Paragon Sports, recently went on-record with ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick to call his client’s relationship with the Marlins “irretrievably broken” and suggest that a trade could be best for all parties involved.

Giants Sign Austin Jackson

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Jan. 23: Heyman tweets that Jackson will earn $3MM in each year of the deal. His 2019 base salary can rise by $1MM based on the number of plate appearances he tallies in 2018, and his 2019 salary can rise by $1.5MM based on that season’s plate appearance total.

Jan. 22: The Giants have announced the signing of outfielder Austin Jackson, as Jon Heyman of Fan Rag first reported (via Twitter). It’s said to be a two-year, $6MM guarantee, but the Octagon client can also escalate his 2019 salary by as much as $2.5MM if he meets certain plate appearance-based targets, as Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic explains on Twitter.

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Jackson, who’ll soon turn 31, turned in a nice bounceback campaign in 2017 after three straight seasons of subpar offensive production. Over 318 plate appearances with the Indians, he posted a .318/.387/.482 batting line with seven home runs and three steals.

Though there’s obviously some promise in that output, it comes with a few caveats. On offense, Jackson benefited from a .385 batting average on ball in play that isn’t likely to be repeated. And his is wOBA of .378 widely outpaced his Statcast-based xwOBA of .335. (For what it’s worth, too, he mostly succeeded by dominating left-handed pitching. He has typically carried reverse splits, so it’s somewhat unclear how that ought to be interpreted.)

Importantly, too, Jackson is no longer a top-end asset in the field and on the bases. He has floated in range of average in both areas in recent years, but generally has graded as a slightly below-average fielder for the past several campaigns. It seems reasonable to believe he can still handle center, at least on a part-time basis, but he’ll surely be put to the test at the spacious AT&T Park.

[RELATED: Updated Giants Depth Chart]

There’s plenty of reason to wonder whether Jackson will be capable of coming close to repeating his output from 2017. But the contract seems to be a reasonable one for a player who has had success in both the recent and the more distant past. Certainly, the price is right for the Giants. This move dovetails with the team’s reported preference to fill out a roster without going past the luxury line.

As things stand, Jackson arguably sits atop the San Francisco depth chart in center field. That said, Giants GM Bobby Evans says that Jackson will “provide additional depth at all three outfield positions,” suggesting that the club does not expect to hand him the reins to the regular job in center. (Via John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle, on Twitter).

The question, then, turns to what other options the Giants have to round out their outfield mix. Internally, right-handed hitters include Gorkys Hernandez, Austin Slater, and Mac Williamson. While the first two of those players are capable of  seeing time in center, they wouldn’t add much functionality beyond what Jackson provides, particularly since the team’s veteran corner outfielders — Hunter Pence and Andrew McCutchen — both hit from the right side. The lefty-swinging, out-of-options Jarrett Parker is another option, up the middle, though his recent output does not inspire much confidence.

So, what options remain for the Giants? If a golden opportunity arises to add a higher-end player, particularly a left-handed hitter, then perhaps a move past the luxury tax line could still occur. Alternatively, as Baggarly notes on Twitter, the club could chase a pre-arb player while staying just shy of the tax, though that’d presumably mean either taking a risk on a less-than-certain asset or giving up good value in return. Free agents like Ben Revere could still be pursued, but anyone achievable at a bargain rate likely won’t be a good enough performer to bump Jackson into reserve duties. Of course, the team also surely hopes that left-handed-hitting prospect Steven Duggar will prove himself ready for a MLB trial in relatively short order. If the team truly believes in him but also wants a more established player to open the season without bypassing the luxury line, it’ll have to get rather creative.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Jon Singleton Receives 100-Game Suspension

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Astros minor league first baseman Jon Singleton has received a 100-game suspension after a third positive test for a drug of abuse, the league announced today. Right-hander Dean Deetz, also in the Astros system, has received an 80-game suspension after testing positive for a performance enhancing substance (dehydrochlormethyltestosterone). As Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper tweets, Deetz is ranked 22nd on BA’s unreleased ranking of the Astros’ top 30 prospects.

It’s been nearly four years since the Astros signed the now-26-year-old Singleton to a five-year, $10MM contract extension before the former top prospect had played a single day in the Majors. Singleton, viewed as a potential everyday first baseman at that point, was widely panned for selling himself short, though it now looks as if he made the correct call in taking the money when presented with the opportunity.

Singleton was called up to the Majors immediately upon signing the deal and homered in his big league debut, but that highlight proved to be one of the few he’d experience in the big leagues. The slugger went on to hit .168/.285/.335 with 13 homers in 362 plate appearances as a rookie, and he’s tallied just 58 plate appearances in the Majors since.

Singleton spent the 2016 season in Triple-A and the 2017 season back in Double-A, narrowly keeping his average above the Mendoza Line but still showing some pop and a penchant for drawing walks. Singleton is owed $2MM on that contract in 2018, though, he will not be paid during the 100-game term of his suspension. Houston had already outrighted Singleton in the 2016-17 offseason, so his suspension won’t free up a spot on the 40-man roster.

Deetz, 24, was Houston’s 11th-round pick back in 2011. He appeared in 25 games between the Astros’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates last season, totaling 84 2/3 innings with a 4.25 ERA, 10.3 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9 in that time. Unlike Singleton, he was on the Astros’ 40-man roster, so his placement on the restricted list will create an opening for Houston. Deetz has formally issued a statement denying any knowing use of a PED:

“Let me say first and foremost that I have never knowingly taken a performance enhancing substance of any kind. I come from a small town, and know how fortunate I am to call myself a professional baseball player. I would never jeopardize that opportunity, or betray those who have supported me along the way, by trying to cheat in order to gain an advantage. As I explained to the arbitrator in my appeal, I have no idea how I could possibly have tested positive and although I am disappointed with the outcome, I will abide by his decision. I would like to apologize to my family, friends, the Houston Astros organization, coaches teammates and fans that have been impacted by this situation. I will continue working diligently to clear my name and, in the meantime, rebuild the trust of those who have been affected by this result.”

Jeff Wilpon On Mets’ Offseason Spending

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After a dismal 2017 season, the Mets entered the offseason in search of improvements and a return to the form that the roster had achieved in the prior two campaigns. At the same time, reporting indicated that the front office would be asked to get things done without a payroll boost — if not, in fact, a spending reduction.

Though the Mets have gone on to make one of the winter’s biggest deals — a $39MM commitment to Jay Bruce that only really stands out against a slow market — questions about spending levels have continued to be raised by fans and the media. Mets COO Jeff Wilpon and GM Sandy Alderson held a discussion with reporters today to address the financial picture, and we’ll cover some of the highlights. (All links to Twitter accounts.)

While acknowledging “fan perception,” Wilpon says the organization has a “plan” for spending that it intends to adhere to (via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo). That plan evidently does not come with a fixed number — Wilpon said “there’s no concrete line” — but he generally validated prior reporting by suggesting there’s a good chance the payroll will end up at or $10MM below last year’s mark. (Via DiComo and Mike Puma of the New York Post.)

That general range of spending is just inside the top half of the league’s thirty teams. Of course, some would argue that the major-market organization ought to be spending more. Wilpon rejected the notion that the team’s prior history of top-five payrolls should be a future guide, per James Wagner of the New York Times. Says Wilpon:

“I’d rather look at what we do in terms of wins and losses. Being top 5 in payroll, I don’t think that won us a World Series.”

Those arguing for a more generous outlay on players will likely not be thrilled with that explanation, or some of the other arguments advanced by Wilpon. Interestingly, the executive indicates, the club effectively continues to count David Wright’s full salary in tabulating its overall payroll despite the fact that he has been unable to play, with insurance covering 75% of the salary. Per DiComo, Wilpon says that the team figures things that way since it has to pay for the policy along with a quarter of the ongoing salary obligations. Plus, he said, the Mets must be careful not to reinvest those funds in case Wright is able to return and they again become obligated for the full remaining amount.

It does not seem as if he was asked about any savings the team netted from its mid-season trades in 2017, though no doubt that was offset in part by declines in revenue as the team skidded out of contention. Wilpon did acknowledge a connection between attendance and payroll levels, but it remains unclear just how those are set. (Also unclear: how that factor is worked into what Wilpon described, as noted above, as a plan that also leaves room for flexibility in making baseball ops decisions.)

It seems, then, as if the team won’t be making additional funds available for roster additions this winter, but that there is still some wiggle room that could allow for opportunism. One potentially interesting way of utilizing payroll, of course, would be an extension for excellent righty Jacob deGrom. Initial talks, though, failed to advance, leaving the sides to work out an arbitration salary. It is not clear whether the sides will make another attempt at hammering out a long-term contract before the start of the season.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/23/18

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We’ll track the day’s minor moves in this post:

  • Outfielder Jacob May was outrighted by the White Sox after clearing waivers, Baseball America’s Matt Eddy reports. Likewise, Angels lefty Nate Smith is headed for Triple-A via outright. Both were designated for assignment recently.
  • Infielder Ty Kelly is returning to the Mets, per SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter). The 29-year-old first reached the bigs in New York and also spent time in the majors last year with the Phillies. He has hit well at times in the upper minors but has yet to translate that to the majors in limited opportunities.
  • The Tigers have purchased the contract of lefty Caleb Thielbar from the St. Paul Saints, per an announcement from the indy ball club. Soon to turn 31, Thielbar hasn’t seen the majors since 2015. In 98 2/3 total innings at the game’s highest level, though, he has pitched to a 2.74 ERA with 7.2 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. He was released by the Marlins just before the start of the 2017 season after competing for a job in camp.
  • Righty Carlos Frias is re-joining the Indians on a minors pact, the club announced. The 28-year-old, who has not seen substantial MLB time since 2015, stumbled to an 8.05 ERA with an ugly 21:22 K/BB ratio at Triple-A last year with the Cleveland organization.
  • The Angels have re-signed lefty John Lamb, Cotillo tweets. Once a well-regarded prospect, the 27-year-old saw his career derailed by back issues. He did throw 139 innings at Triple-A last year with the Halos organization, though he managed only a 5.44 ERA with 5.2 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9.
  • Reliever Bryan Harper has re-joined the Nationals on a minor-league deal with a spring invite, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. Bryce’s older brother has never been seen as a major asset, but he’s an accomplished minor-league reliever. He missed all of 2017 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but has allowed less than three earned runs per nine in over a hundred frames in the upper minors.
  • Outfielder Matt Lipka is joining the Giants organization on a minor-league deal, Cotillo also tweets. A first-round pick in the 2010 draft, Lipka has not yet shown that he can hand the bat in the upper minors. He posted a .754 OPS in 370 plate appearances last year at the High-A level, but limped to a .160/.216/.223 slash over his 102 trips to the plate at Double-A.

Tigers To Sign Alexi Amarista

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The Tigers have reached a minor-league deal with veteran infielder Alexi Amarista, according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free-Press (Twitter links). He’ll receive an invitation to participate in MLB camp.

Amarista, 28, spent the 2017 season with the Rockies. The Colorado organization declined a $2.5MM club option for the coming season, preferring instead to pay him a $150K buyout.

There’s little to love about Amarista’s offensive profile. He has never hit much, but his output has not even kept pace with the standard he set earlier in his career, when he was a heavily used player with the Padres. Over the past three seasons, Amarista owns a marginal .225/.268/.301 slash line with six home runs and 15 steals over 683 plate appearances.

Clearly, the work with the bat does not explain Amarista’s appeal. Rather, it lies in his defensive versatility. Amarista has spent most of his career playing the middle infield, especially short, and also has significant time at thrid base and across the outfield (including in center).

For Detroit, Amarista represents some much-needed veteran depth. He could challenge for a reserve role in camp along with fellow non-roster invitee Pete Kozma. Yet more opportunity could open up if the Tigers end up dealing shortstop Jose Iglesias.

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