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Morosi’s Latest: Rangers, Cards, Rockies, Phillies

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A few early morning free agent rumors from Jon Morosi of MLB.com…

  • The Rangers “have had preliminary contact” with right-hander Alex Cobb’s representatives, Morosi writes. Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported earlier this month that the starter-needy Rangers covet Cobb, one of the top hurlers on the open market. Cobb returned in earnest from 2015 Tommy John surgery last season to turn in a career-best 179 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA pitching, with 6.42 K/9, 2.21 BB/9 and a 47.8 percent groundball rate.
  • The Cardinals and Rockies are among teams with interest in reliever Brandon Kintzler, whose experience as a closer has executives wondering if a club will sign him to handle that role, according to Morosi. Both the Cardinals and Rockies need more than ninth-inning help, as each team has seen multiple key relievers hit free agency this month. The 33-year-old Kintzler has overcome a paucity of strikeouts to ride a low-walk, high-grounder combination to success throughout his career, including in a 2017 campaign that saw the righty amass a career-high 29 saves between Minnesota and Washington (28 with the Twins).
  • The Phillies are one of the teams eyeing left-hander Jake McGee, reports Morosi, who notes that the reliever was once teammates with new Philadelphia skipper Gabe Kapler in Tampa Bay. With Colorado in 2017, McGee, 31, posted a 3.61 ERA and logged 9.1 K/9, 2.51 BB/9 and a 40.5 percent grounder rate over 57 1/3 innings. Along the way, he was effective against both righty- and lefty-swingers, the latter of whom had their way against Phillies relievers (.270/.347/.459).

Free Agent Profile: Lorenzo Cain

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Fresh off yet another strong season, longtime Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain ranks as one of the best free agents available in this year’s class.

Pros/Strengths

Since making his major league debut with the Brewers in 2010, Cain has often mixed average or better production at the plate with top-notch defense and quality baserunning, making him one of the game’s most valuable players at his position. Cain held his own in those three facets in 2017 and surpassed the 4.0 fWAR mark for the third time in the past four seasons. Dating back to 2014, his breakout offensive campaign, only 19 position players have logged a higher fWAR than Cain’s 17.9, which puts him in company with the likes of Freddie Freeman (18.1), Ian Kinsler (17.4) and Andrew McCutchen (16.8).

Lorenzo Cain

Defense is perhaps Cain’s greatest strength, evidenced by his lifetime DRS (73) and UZR (53.8) in center. According to those metrics, Cain wasn’t elite in 2017, though he still ranked in the top nine in the league among center fielders in both categories. He placed an even more impressive fifth among all outfielders in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric.

On the offensive side, the righty-swinging Cain has been useful against pitchers of either handedness throughout his career. While his .303/.360/.474 line against southpaws easily trumps his .285/.335/.400 output versus righties, the latter has still been good enough for league-average production, per FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. All told, he has slashed a respectable .290/.342/.421 in 3,051 trips, including a .300/.363/.440 line across a personal-best 645 PAs in 2017. Cain managed to cut his K rate from 19.4 percent in 2016 to a meager 15.5 percent this past season, and has gone down on strikes just 18.6 percent of the time in his career.

Cain’s speed has certainly contributed to his solid offensive numbers, helping him run a lifetime .344 batting average on balls in play (including a .340 mark in 2017) and an infield hit rate of 9.9 percent (league average has hovered in the 6.5 percent range since his MLB debut). Unsurprisingly, the fleet-of-foot Cain finished toward the top of MLB last season in Statcast’s Sprint Speed metric (16th out of 451 qualifiers). Thanks primarily to his wheels, Cain stole 26 of 28 bases in 2017, ranking fifth in the majors in SB percentage (92.9) along the way. Successful base stealing has been the norm for Cain, who has swiped 127 of 152 bags (83.6 percent) during his career.

Weaknesses/Cons

If you’re looking for red flags here, age and injury questions jump to the fore immediately. Cain will turn 32 next April, which will make a long-term deal for him all the more risky, and although he played 155 games last year, he hasn’t been that durable. Cain spent time on the disabled list in 2012, ’13, ’14 and ’16, and last season was the only one to date in which he appeared in more than 140 games.

With Cain’s legs being so integral to his game, it’s certainly fair to wonder just how well he’ll age both offensively and defensively. Speed peaks early, after all, and that’s all the more concerning for a 30-something hitter who brings minimal power and middling patience to the table. Cain did hit 15 home runs in 2017, but his .140 ISO (.131 lifetime) fell well below the .171 league average.

Background

Cain, a Valdosta, Ga., native, became a professional when the Brewers chose him in the 17th round of the 2004 draft. He ultimately racked up just 158 PAs with Milwaukee before the team traded him, Jake Odorizzi, Alcides Escobar and Jeremy Jeffress to the Royals for Zack Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt in a December 2010 blockbuster. During his time in the majors, Cain, a client of All Bases Covered Sports Management, has earned approximately $21.76MM, per Baseball-Reference.com.

Off the field, Cain has been involved with the Variety Children’s Charity of Greater Kansas City. He and his wife, Jenny, have two sons.

Market

Unfortunately for Cain, most of the teams that received bottom-of-the-barrel production from their center fielders in 2017 don’t look like fits for a player who’s on the wrong side of 30. Nevertheless, it appears Cain will price himself out of KC, which will net a compensatory pick after the first round of next year’s draft if he signs with another club for a guaranteed $50MM-plus or a selection after Comp Round B if he gets less. The Giants, Mets and Blue Jays are reportedly eyeing him, while the Mariners and Rangers have also come up as potential matches. Of those teams, the Giants and Mariners need a center fielder the most. The Mets, Blue Jays and Rangers have experienced CFers on hand in Juan Lagares, Kevin Pillar and Delino DeShields, respectively, though Cain is a better all-around player than each of those three.

Expected Contract

MLBTR forecasts a four-year, $70MM payday for Cain, who could push for a pact that rivals the half-decade-long, $82.5MM deal fellow center fielder Dexter Fowler signed with the Cardinals last winter. The fact that Cain’s a year older than Fowler will make a fifth year difficult to obtain, though.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL Notes: Rays, Longoria, Colome, Rangers, Tigers

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As they look to reduce payroll and perhaps rebuild this offseason, the Rays will be open to trading most of their high-paid players – including third baseman and franchise icon Evan Longoria – Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Longoria hasn’t yet reached 10-and-5 status, meaning he doesn’t have full no-trade rights, but the Rays would likely only deal him with his blessing, according to Topkin. The 32-year-old will rake in $13.5MM in 2018 and up to $94MM through 2023, depending on what happens with a club option in the final season of his deal. In addition to Longoria, right-handers Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi, closer Alex Colome, catcher Wilson Ramos, outfielder Corey Dickerson, infielder Brad Miller and shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria stand out as potential trade candidates, Topkin observes. Colome seems particularly likely to go, Topkin suggests, and has already drawn reported interest from the Cardinals. He’s projected to earn $5.5MM in 2018, his first of three possible arbitration years.

More on Tampa Bay and two other AL clubs:

  • While the Rays may spend the coming months subtracting veterans, there will probably be mutual interest between them and free agent first baseman Mike Napoli, per Topkin. The Florida native continued his power-hitting ways in Texas last season, swatting 29 home runs and posting a .235 ISO, but he still batted an ugly .193/.285/.428 across 485 plate appearances. As a 36-year-old coming off a career-worst campaign, he’ll be in the Rays’ price range.
  • With the Rangers in desperate need of starters, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News lists several bargain free agents who might be worthy of their attention on the open market. Two of those players, Miguel Gonzalez and Miles Mikolas, bring past Rangers experience to the table. Recent Tommy John surgery recipient Michael Pineda, John Lackey and Jhoulys Chacin could also land on the club’s radar, Grant writes.
  • Aside from switch-hitters Victor Martinez and Jeimer Candelario, the Tigers don’t have lefty-capable regulars on their roster at the moment. General manager Al Avila is looking to change that this winter. “We’re very right-handed, so left-handed anything — infield and outfield — would be very handy for us as far as somebody that could help at the Major League level in 2018,” Avila told Jason Beck of MLB.com and other reporters this week. Given that the Tigers are in rebuilding mode, any move(s) they make to balance their lineup will be small, Beck notes.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: FA SPs, Cole, Cain, Jays, Ohtani, Cubs

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This week in baseball blogs:

Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com.

Orioles Interested In Lance Lynn

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The Orioles are interested in free agent right-hander Lance Lynn, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports (Twitter link). Morosi adds that the Orioles slightly prefer fellow righty Alex Cobb, however, thanks to his vast experience in the American League East. Morosi first linked Cobb to the Orioles on Friday.

Either Lynn or Cobb is the third-best established starter on the market behind Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, and signing one of the two second-tier arms would ostensibly be a boon to a Baltimore rotation in dire need of help. Orioles starters placed 27th in the majors in fWAR (5.5) and dead last in ERA (5.70) during the regular season, and with 2017 rotation members Chris Tillman, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Miley and Ubaldo Jimenez now on the open market, the team is on the hunt for multiple starters.

Lynn debuted as a regular in the Cardinals’ rotation in 2012 and has quietly been among the majors’ most consistent workhorses since then. With the exception of 2016, which he missed after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Lynn hasn’t finished with fewer than 29 starts or 175 1/3 innings in any full season. The fastball specialist has also thrived at keeping opposing offenses at bay, evidenced by a 3.37 ERA that ranks tied for 22nd among big league starters since 2012.

The 30-year-old Lynn spun 186 1/3 innings of 3.43 ERA ball in 2017, though his terrific run prevention came in spite of underwhelming rates in the strikeout (7.39 K/9; down from 8.46 lifetime) and walk (3.77; up from 3.4) departments. A fair amount of Lynn’s success last season was on account of a .244 batting average on balls in play, way down from his .297 career mark, but it wasn’t solely a product of good fortune. Lynn tied with a handful of starters – including National League Cy Young winner Max Scherzer – for 25th out of 94 qualifiers in average exit velocity allowed (85.7 mph). Thanks in part to that, his expected weighted on-base average allowed (.310) was right in line with the .309 wOBA he surrendered.

Considering both Lynn’s track record and the dearth of big-time starters available in free agency, he’s in line to land one of the offseason’s richest contracts. With Lynn having rejected the Cardinals’ $17.4MM qualifying offer, signing him would cost Baltimore its third-highest pick in next summer’s draft, which isn’t much of a deterrent in and of itself. But, as much as Lynn could help the O’s rotation in 2018, it’s debatable whether they’d be wise to hand a lucrative long-term deal to him, Cobb or anyone else this winter with core players Manny Machado, Zach Britton, Adam Jones and Brad Brach scheduled to hit free agency next year.

Mariners Acquire Nick Rumbelow

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The Mariners have announced that they’ve acquired right-hander Nick Rumbelow from the Yankees in exchange for a pair of minor league pitchers, left-hander JP Sears and righty Juan Then.

It’s not an earth-shattering trade by any means, but it certainly does have at least one significant implication. The Yankees are facing a significant roster crunch that needs to be resolved by November 20th, which is the deadline to set rosters ahead of the Rule 5 Draft. As Josh Norris of Baseball America points out (subscription required and recommended), the Yankees only had two open spots on the 40-man as of Thursday, and have a number of players worth protecting. That list includes No. 3 overall prospect Gleyber Torres, along with Albert Abreu, Thairo Estrada, Domingo Acevedo and Billy McKinney. Trading Rumbelow, who was added to the 40-man roster on November 6th, doesn’t magically solve the Yankees’ Rule 5 dilemma, but it helps by clearing one more spot.

This is the third trade to go down during the 2017-2018 offseason, and the Mariners have been involved in all three so far. Most recently, Seattle also acquired corner infielder Ryon Healy from the Athletics (link).

[Related: Updated Mariners Depth Chart]

Rumbelow has just 15 2/3 major league innings under his belt, all coming in relief during the 2015 season. The right-hander allowed seven runs and struck out 15 while walking five batters. He began the 2016 season at Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre and pitched just one inning before suffering a UCL sprain and ultimately undergoing Tommy John surgery. He was subsequently designated for assignment in mid-November. However, it only took 11 1/3 solid minor league innings this past season to convince the Yankees to add him back to the 40-man.

Sears, 21, was an 11th-round pick in this year’s draft out of The Citadel, the Military College of South Carolina. The reliever struck out a whopping 49 batters across just 27 2/3 innings across two levels of the lower minors, including 17 innings in A-ball during which he didn’t allow a run.

The 17-year-old Then was an international signing out of the Dominican Republic. Like Sears, his only professional season to date is 2017. The right-hander started 13 games for the Mariners’ Rookie affiliate, posting an excellent 2.64 ERA to go along with 8.22 K/9, 2.20 BB/9 and a 53% ground ball rate.

International Notes: Matsui, Ruf, Verrett, Jackson

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Former major leaguer Kazuo Matsui has rejoined his first professional team, the Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball (hat tip to Kyodo News). The 42-year-old was not offered a contract by his previous team, the Rakuten Eagles, and will now reportedly take on both outfielder and coaching duties for the Lions. “I felt strongly about continuing my playing career,” Matsui said. “I know the competition will be tough but I’ll get more motivated playing against younger players.” Matsui hit .267/.321/.380 while stealing 102 bases across 2,555 major league plate appearances with the Mets, Rockies and Astros from 2004-2010, with whom he played mostly second base. During his Japan career, however, Matsui put up fantastic offensive numbers (including 201 career homers). He earned four Gold Glove Awards as well as the 1998 Pacific League MVP Award.

Some other things happening in foreign territory…

  • Former Phillies outfielder/first baseman Darin Ruf has found some success in Korea, hitting 31 homers and leading the entire Korean Baseball Organization with 124 RBI. According to the Yonhap News Agency, the Samsung Lions recently re-signed him for the 2018 season on a $1.5MM deal. During his career in the U.S., Ruf played at the MLB level during parts of five seasons, bouncing back and forth between the Phillies and their Triple-A affiliate. Across 833 major league plate appearances, he played at roughly replacement level, showing poor plate discipline (8.2 BB%, 27.5 K%) but decent power (.193 ISO).
  • Elsewhere in the KBO, the NC Dinos have inked former major league pitcher Logan Verrett to a pact worth $800K (also via the Yonhap News Agency). Verrett had a 4.62 ERA during his major league career with the Mets and Orioles. A whopping 15.5% HR/FB rate may have done him across his 150 career MLB innings, along with a very low 6.84 K/9.
  • According to a tweet from ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, multiple MLB teams have shown interest in former Padres pitcher Jay Jackson. Crasnick notes that Jackson has been one of the best setup men in Japan over the last two seasons. Jackson only pitched 4 1/3 innings at the major league level in 2015, but did flash a 95.1 MPH fastball. He also put up a 2.54 ERA in 63 2/3 innings with the Padres’ Triple-A affiliate that same season.

Looking for a Match in a Brad Hand Trade

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After entertaining offers from a handful of teams leading up to the 2017 non-waiver trade deadline, the San Diego Padres opted not to trade reliever Brad Hand. But discussions are sure to heat up once again heading into the hot stove season. While the elite lefty is no sure bet to be dealt, the Friars look like a long shot to contend in a tough NL West division and could be well-served to exchange Hand for a package of young talent.

Hand followed a breakout 2016 campaign with an equally phenomenal 2017 season. Among major-league relievers this past year, he finished 14th in ERA (2.16), 11th in xFIP (2.90), 21st in K/9 (11.80), 6th in innings pitched (79 1/3), and 4th in Win Probability Added (3.89). The former second-round pick accrued 21 saves despite not taking over the closer role until late July, and was valued at 1.7 fWAR.

Every team in the major leagues would look better on paper by adding Hand to their bullpen. Relievers of his caliber are difficult to come by, let alone left-handers. He wouldn’t even be a rental; Hand is controllable through 2019 via arbitration. MLBTR projects him to be awarded just a $3.8MM salary in 2018, making him an incredibly payroll-friendly alternative to some of the big name free-agent relievers.

Not every team can afford Hand in terms of prospects, however, which is how we can begin to eliminate some teams from the mix. When the Indians acquired lefty Andrew Miller from the Yankees at the 2016 trade deadline, they forked over four minor leaguers, including top prospects Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield. While nobody would argue that Miller is the superior (and more established) relief pitcher, the two come with similar amounts of team control, while Miller’s contract guaranteed him $9MM per season.

If the asking price for Hand is anything close to the return the Yankees got for Miller, then we can firmly remove the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Angels, Giants, Mariners and Orioles from the picture. Teams like the White Sox, A’s, Phillies and Reds are probably too far away from serious contention to consider a run at Hand. But beyond that, there would still appear to be a vast pool of potential suitors, leaving the Padres firmly in the driver’s seat.

On paper, there are a few matches that make loads of sense. The Astros have a powerful roster that lacks only the presence of a dominant left-handed bullpen arm, and they certainly have the prospect depth to swing a trade. Likewise, the Dodgers would certainly benefit from another elite reliever to back Kenley Jansen, and their farm may be better than that of the Astros. The Brewers have a strong rotation that would benefit from another elite reliever who could help shorten games.

My favorite potential match is the Cardinals. St. Louis has so many outfield prospects that it’ll be hard to roster them all when the Rule 5 Draft comes around, while the Padres would probably love to add some upside young talent at that position. Meanwhile, the Cards are in definite need of a closer. I expect the two teams will at least discuss the possibility of a Hand trade.

Some other teams in dire need of bullpen help include the Twins, Rays, Rockies and Braves, though those teams might have other issues to address before thinning out their farm systems for a relief pitcher.

Whether a trade materializes or not, it’s fair to expect Hand’s name will pop up in trade rumors a fair number of times this offseason. It would surely be exciting to see how a contender might utilize him in the playoffs.

Coach/Manager Notes: Ausmus, Blanco, Gott

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Katie Strang of The Athletic (subscription required and recommended) had a phone Q&A with Brad Ausmus. The former Tigers skipper explains his rationale in taking a year off from the field. Among his reasons for a hiatus is the ability to be more involved in his daughters’ lives. Ausmus also mentioned that the Red Sox managerial opening he interviewed for would have been a perfect fit due to a house up in Cape Cod and an emotional connection to the franchise, so he would have accepted the job in Boston. He was unwilling to comment on his interviews with other franchises, including the Mets. When asked about his time with the Tigers, Ausmus mentioned that he has no hard feelings about the way his tenure in Detroit ended, adding an anecdote about his disappointment that the Tigers didn’t win it all. “The only thing that bothered me the most is that we didn’t win,” Ausmus tells Strang. “We didn’t win a championship. That’s the only thing that stung.” The piece gives great insight into Ausmus’ experience and emotions.

Other notes about coaches around baseball…

  • The Nationals’ hire of Henry Blanco as their new bullpen coach finalized their coaching staff for 2018. Blanco will leave his position as the quality assurance coach with the Cubs to join the Nats organization. Being that Washington’s new skipper Dave Martinez will also be coming over from the Cubs, the prior relationship between the two is a definite plus, as MLB.com’s Jamal Collier notes in the above link.
  • The Phillies have announced that Jim Gott will fill their bullpen coach opening. As Todd Zolecki of MLB.com notes, the 58-year-old Gott served as the pitching coach for the Angels from 2010-2012, and has spent the past five seasons as the Angels’ minor league pitching coordinator. Gott pitched in the major leagues from 1982-1995 and had a lifetime 3.87 ERA, notching 837 strikeouts against 466 walks.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/18/17

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Here are Saturday’s minor moves throughout the league…

  • The Reds have re-signed outfielder Patrick Kivlehan to a minor-league deal with an invitation to spring training, beat reporter Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports on Twitter. After bouncing around between the minor league systems of the Mariners, Rangers and Padres, Kivlehan made his major league debut in 2016 with the Padres organization and eventually made his way over to the Reds. In 204 plate appearances with Cincinnati last year, he hit .208/.304/.399 with a 29.9% K rate and 9 homers.

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