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NL Notes: Cubs, Robles, Rockies, Mets, Lind, Reds

By Steve Adams | November 28, 2017 at 7:52pm CDT

Many expect the Cubs to trade from their position player depth to fill a spot in the rotation, but ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers cautions that such a trade may not be as likely as one would think. President Theo Epstein did acknowledge after the season that the team may have to consider dealing from the big league roster to add a pitcher, and names like Javier Baez, Addison Russell, Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora have all been listed as speculative possibilities. However, Rogers points out how crucial that depth has been in dealing with injuries and suggests that depleting said depth could simply create further troubles. Free agency is a better fit, Rogers opines, suggesting the oft-speculated match between Alex Cobb and the Cubs as a starting point. Also of note, Rogers notes that an informal poll of rival execs at this month’s GM Meetings suggested that Baez and Russell are “neck and neck” in trade value.

Some other notes from around the Senior Circuit…

Nationals top prospect Victor Robles is expected to begin the 2018 season in Triple-A, reports Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post. The Nats are as bullish as ever on the highly touted 20-year-old, but they’d prefer that he receive everyday at-bats rather than play in a more limited role to open the year. As it stands, Washington figures to head into the season with Michael Taylor, Adam Eaton and Bryce Harper as its starting outfield and Brian Goodwin on hand as a reserve. Robles already made his MLB debut in 2017, so it stands to reason that in the event of an injury, he’d be under consideration for a promotion and a regular role. And, with Harper potentially departing as a free agent following the 2018 campaign, a long-term spot could be opening for Robles in advance of his age-22 season (2019).
Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post runs down a number of potential targets for the Rockies in free agency, noting that the bullpen, catcher and first base are among the team’s needs. Saunders believes re-signing Jonathan Lucroy to be the club’s top priority, noting that manger Bud Black “loves” how Lucroy worked with the team’s young pitchers. Re-signing Greg Holland is also on the team’s wishlist, but Saunders suggests that if the bidding reaches Mark Melancon territory (four years, $62MM) then the Rockies won’t be a player for his services.
With the Mets exploring the possibility of bringing in a free-agent first baseman, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (on Twitter) that Adam Lind is one potential name the team will consider. The interest in Lind suggests that the Mets are casting a fairly wide net, as they’ve also been linked to a higher-profile target in Carlos Santana. Speculating a bit, it also could suggest that the team isn’t giving up on Dominic Smith after a disappointing MLB debut in 2017. Signing Santana or any other higher-profile free agent would block Smith for years to come and likely turn him into a trade piece; bringing in a shorter-term stopgap like Lind, though, could give the Mets a strong platoon partner option to complement their right-handed infield bats early in the season in order to let Smith develop further. Lind slashed a robust .303/.364/.534 in 269 plate appearances against righties last season but could potentially be had on a one-year deal due to his age (34), longstanding platoon issues and a flooded market for platoon first basemen.
While the Reds’ rotation has plenty of uncertainty heading into the 2018 season, GM Dick Williams tells David Laurila of Fangraphs that he’s nonetheless optimistic about the team’s collection of young arms. As Williams explains, injuries forced the Reds to promote numerous prospects from Double-A while skipping the Triple-A level entirely. Still, some of those arms made adjustments on the fly as the season wore on, and the experience gained was valuable in their overall development. Williams points to strong finishes from Luis Castillo, Sal Romano and Tyler Mahle as encouraging factors heading into the offseason. And, of course, the Reds will hope for better health from the likes of Anthony DeSclafani, Brandon Finnegan and Homer Bailey, which could further help to bolster the rotation results. Laurila also chats with Twins GM Thad Levine about managerial qualifications and Rangers skipper Jeff Banister about player development.

Giancarlo Stanton Notes: Tuesday

By Jeff Todd | November 28, 2017 at 5:45pm CDT

MLBTR’s Kyle Downing recently rounded up everything we have learned this offseason about the Marlins’ marketing of star slugger Giancarlo Stanton. But there have been developments over the past few days … some of which are in some tension, perhaps reflecting different viewpoints from the actors involved in the high-stakes negotiations.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explains that if the two sides get close to a deal, the Marlins could grant the Cardinals an exclusive negotiation window of roughly 48 to 72 hours to make a pitch directly to Stanton. While MLB clubs are typically forbidden from talking to players that are under contract with another team, Goold confirmed with MLB officials that the Marlins could designate a window to “convince a player to waive his no-trade (clause) without contract modification.”
Meanwhile, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports that the Marlins told Stanton back in October that if he declined to ultimately approve a deal, the Marlins would have to explore other ways to shed salary, which could leave him as the lone star on a roster devoid of other top-tier talent. The scenario wasn’t presented to Stanton as an ultimatum, Spencer stresses, but it does underscore the possibility that the Marlins could eventually pivot and market less challenging stars, including Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich.
The Red Sox are an “extreme long shot” to acquire Stanton, a source tells Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston. It seems that Boston is not enamored of the current value proposition that a Stanton acquisition would represent, given the Marlins’ asking price.

Earlier Updates

Yesterday, we heard indications both that Stanton had informed the Marlins of where he’d approve a trade and that there was a general expectation that resolution could be in sight. But the latest report, a subscription piece from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, has a different twist on those themes. Rosenthal explains that a deal may not come together quite as promptly as might have been expected, writing that both Stanton and the team can afford some patience. Notably, per the report, that’s reflected in Stanton’s stance on his full no-trade rights. Per Rosenthal, Stanton hasn’t simply given Miami a list of yays or nays; rather, he has told them of his “preferences” but would like to know the “overall plans” of a potential acquiring team before approving or nixing any move.
We already know that the Giants and Cardinals have made initial proposals to the Marlins for Stanton. One other team is “engaged” with the Marlins on Stanton, says Rosenthal, with the Red Sox believed to be the last member of that trio. That said, Boston was only recently reported to have only “tepid” interest in Stanton.
Per Rosenthal, there are another three unknown organizations “on the periphery.” But there’s still no clear indication of what other teams may be loitering around the edges of the Stanton market. Speculation has rather naturally centered upon the Dodgers, given Stanton’s strong ties to Los Angeles. As ESPN.com’s Buster Olney recently wrote (subscription link), Stanton has every right to stand on any personal preference — if, say, he’s mostly interested in playing for the Dodgers. Then again, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today reminds us on Twitter, the L.A. brass has given rather strong signals that it isn’t looking to add that kind of contractual commitment. In his piece, Rosenthal wonders whether there are some ways around that stance, though none seem to be particularly feasible and clear connections between the organizations are lacking at present.
The Dodgers were among the teams we identified a few weeks back as being good fits on paper, though of course there are also cases to be made for quite a few more, as we explored in detail. That post is still worth a read if you haven’t checked it out yet. Those looking for more information on the game’s most interesting trade candidate should also give a look at this Statcast-based assessment from MLB.com’s Mike Petriello, who examines how Stanton’s homer tally might be impacted by a new home ballpark.

Angels Agree To Minor League Deals With Curt Casali, Colin Walsh

By Steve Adams | November 28, 2017 at 5:13pm CDT

The Angels have agreed to a minor league contract with former Rays catcher Curt Casali, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (on Twitter). Meanwhile, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports that Anaheim has also picked up former Brewers second baseman Colin Walsh on a minor league deal. Casali is a client of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, while Walsh is repped by the Ballengee Group. Both received invites to Major League Spring Training.

Casali, 29, has spent parts of the past four seasons with the Rays, showing decent pop but struggling to make contact, as evidenced by a .199/.285/.385 batting line and 19 homers in 466 trips to the plate. He’s thrown out a very strong 31 percent of would-be base thieves in that time and delivered average or better framing marks on a persistent basis, per Baseball Prospectus.

The right-handed-hitting Casali has managed just a .185/.268/.364 slash against right-handed pitching in his big league career but has authored a more palatable .230/.324/.434 line against lefties. He’ll head to camp with a chance to compete for a backup gig behind 2017 Gold Glove winner Martin Maldonado.

As for Walsh, he almost certainly won’t represent the Halos’ most significant second-base addition this offseason, but he’ll provide some depth with big league experience under his belt. The former Rule 5 pick logged 63 plate appearances with Milwaukee in 2016, though be posted an anemic .085/.317/.106 line in that time. The switch-hitting Walsh has a history of posting big OBP numbers in the minors and split the 2017 season between the Astros and D-backs organizations, batting a combined .256/.413/.435 with a dozen homers and a 94-to-101 BB/K ratio. He’s played all over the diamond, though Fletcher notes that GM Billy Eppler has said the Halos view Walsh as an option at second base and third base.

Shohei Ohtani Rumors: Tuesday

By Jeff Todd | November 28, 2017 at 4:13pm CDT

Though Shohei Ohtani has not even yet been officially posted — that’s expected as soon as Friday — the supreme young talent is drawing plenty of attention from MLB organizations. Those clubs received a memorandum over the weekend asking them to provide information to Ohtani and his representatives on a variety of subjects, which is only the beginning of a highly unusual and utterly fascinating recruitment process.

Here’s the latest:

Though Ohtani is limited to a signing bonus and a minor league contract in coming to the Major Leagues, he stands to earn substantially more through marketing endorsements, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Marketing agents have predicted to Nightengale that between endorsements back in Japan and in the United States, Ohtani could command north of $20MM annually. That’d make him MLB’s highest-paid player in terms of off-the-field revenue.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic spoke to agent Scott Boras (who was in the running to represent Ohtani before Ohtani signed CAA and Nez Balelo) as well as MLB chief legal officer Dan Halem about Ohtani’s earning capacity. Unsurprisingly, Boras offered sharp criticism of a system that won’t allow Ohtani to top a $3.535MM signing bonus at this point. “He is precocious, greatness cast adrift, forced into the MLB lifeboat,” said the always colorful Boras. “And his admission is handcuffs that prevent him from getting at least what his older, lesser valued peers received—in Tanaka’s case, more than $150 million.” Halem, as one would expect, wholly disagreed with Boras’ notions, pointing out that it was Ohtani who passed on the chance to sign with MLB clubs as an amateur out of high school, which could have jump-started his earning potential. And, it was Ohtani who asked to be posted as an amateur just two years before he could have been posted as a professional. The free column has quite a few quotes from both Boras and Halem on the matter and is well worth a full look.

Earlier Updates

As teams sit down to their assigned task, Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs reasons that the questionnaire’s request for information on “player development, medical, training and player performance philosophies and capabilities” may be the single most important factor. As Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes, the new CBA’s inclusion of additional off-days ought to help make it easier for Ohtani to pitch and hit at the game’s highest level. Just how teams propose to accomplish that, in combination with the player health and fitness management they already utilize, could well be be a significant element in Ohtani’s decision.
MLB.com’s Jon Morosi discusses the eight teams that he believes have the best shot at landing Japanese star Shohei Ohtani — while acknowledging that we still really don’t know what factors will drive the decision. It’s a worthwhile primer on some of the background considerations that may play into things. For instance, Morosi notes that Los Angeles is home to the largest mainland Japanese-American community, representing a potential feather in the cap for the Dodgers, though certainly several other competitive organizations can point to their own, similarly robust international communities and other such considerations. It’s all still reading tea leaves at this point; fortunately, we have SB Nation’s Grant Brisbee to gather and interpret them for us (in this post).
Of course, as Morosi notes, the Rangers have done as much or more grunt work developing a presence in Japan as any organization. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News recently broke down the team’s pursuit of Ohtani in a post that’s well worth a full read. Aiding the Rangers, he writes, is the fact that the organization has “laid groundwork in Japan for six years” and can point to its successes with Yu Darvish.
The Reds have “serious interest” in Ohtani, as president of baseball operations Dick Williams says and C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. Williams says the team has “some optimism” that it “can make a case for why we would present a good opportunity” to a player that is looking at far more than just money. Like the Rays, another rumored small-market suitor, it seems the Cincinnati organization feels there’s little to lose by putting its best foot forward.
Some bigger spenders have roster and other limitations that may impact their pitches to Ohtani. As Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post recently wrote, that seems to be the case for the Nationals. Still, the Nats evidently plan to be among the teams that respond to Ohtani’s inquiries and at least make an attempt to land him. Club president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo discussed his intentions on MLB Network yesterday (more on that, including audio, here).
Both of the Bay Area organizations would surely also love to add Ohtani, as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes, and each has dedicated some attention to watching him in the past. While their front offices weren’t looking to lobby much, Giants GM Bobby Evans called Ohtani “impressive” and Athletics GM David Forst says “a two-way player with his abilities would be an asset for any team.” To the extent that Ohtani prioritizes geographic proximity to his native Japan, the San Francisco-Oakland region would figure to hold appeal and might at least allow these organizations to get a foot in the door.

Rangers Sign Doug Fister

By Connor Byrne | November 28, 2017 at 4:01pm CDT

In what has been a slow offseason for all 30 big league clubs, right-hander Doug Fister has broken the ice and signed a one-year deal with the Rangers, the team announced today. Fister, a client of PSI Sports Management, will reportedly be guaranteed $4MM in the form of a $3.5MM base salary for 2018 and either a $4.5MM club option or a $500K buyout for 2019. The option could reportedly be worth as much as $7MM, and both years include $500K in performance bonuses. The Rangers’ 40-man roster is now up to 39 players.

The Rangers will be the seventh big league organization for the soon-to-be 34-year-old Fister, who went through all of last offseason without landing a contract after struggling with the Astros in 2016. The Angels finally signed Fister to a minor league accord in May, but he opted out of it June 21 after failing to reach the majors with the club.

[Related: Updated Texas Rangers depth chart & payroll outlook]

After his Halos stint concluded, Fister quickly caught on via waivers with the Red Sox and ended up turning in 90 1/3 innings (18 appearances, 15 starts) of 4.88 ERA pitching, with 8.27 K/9 against 3.79 BB/9 and a 50.6 percent groundball rate. Fister experienced a notable uptick in velocity during his Red Sox tenure, though he still only topped out in the low-90s, and notched one of the best swinging-strike rates of his career (7.6 percent – up from a league-worst 5.7 percent from 2015-16).

While the 6-foot-8 Fister is no longer the front-line starter he was at times with the Mariners, Tigers and Nationals earlier in his career, the Rangers are banking on his respectable showing in Boston carrying into 2018. With Andrew Cashner and Miguel Gonzalez sitting on the open market, the Rangers entered the offseason in need of multiple starters. Texas’ rotation finished last season 24th in both ERA and fWAR, and that was with 137 quality innings from Yu Darvish, whom the team traded to the Dodgers at the July 31 non-waiver deadline.

For now, the Rangers’ projected starting staff for 2018 includes Fister, Cole Hamels, Martin Perez, A.J. Griffin and Nick Martinez. While Fister, Hamels and Perez are either strong bets or locks to earn spots, the Rangers would hard pressed to count on either Griffin or Martinez, who combined for 178 2/3 innings of replacement-level pitching in 2017. Adding Fister won’t be the Rangers’ last move this offseason as they attempt to repair their rotation, then, but it’s the majors’ first notable free agent signing in what has been an unusually quiet winter so far.

Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston first reported the agreement. SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo reported the terms of the contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Chat Transcript: Stanton, Cards, Ohtani, Yankees, Free Agency, More

By Steve Adams | November 28, 2017 at 2:03pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.

Orioles Sign Jhan Marinez, Joely Rodriguez, Ruben Tejada

By Jeff Todd | November 28, 2017 at 12:51pm CDT

The Orioles have announced a slew of minor-league signings, among them right-hander Jhan Marinez, southpaw Joely Rodriguez and infielder Ruben Tejada. Baltimore also announced the previously reported additions of infielder Luis Sardinas and lefties Josh Edgin and Ryan O’Rourke, with 14 total additions being made official.

Right-hander Jeff Ferrell was the only of the remaining players to sign who has reached the majors. Also joining the Baltimore organization on minors deals are righty Ralston Cash, catchers Armando Araiza and Yojhan Quevedo, and infielders Angelo Mora, Garabez Rosa, Ryan Ripken and Erick Salcedo. Araiza, Rosa, Ripken and Salcedo were all in the Orioles organization in 2017 as well.

With these additions, the O’s are likely hoping to spur some competition in camp at the fringes of the active roster. Marinez, 29, pitched to a 3.70 ERA in 58 1/3 MLB innings in 2017 with three organizations and could certainly be a middle relief option. Rodriguez struggled to a 6.33 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9 in 27 innings on the season with the Phillies, but he could join Edgin and O’Rourke in pushing the O’s existing southpaws.

Meanwhile, it seems that Tejada and Sardinas could duke it out in Spring Training for a utility job. Both spent time in the Orioles organization last year. Tejada received a run at short before the team added Tim Beckham, but managed only a .230/.293/.283 slash. The 24-year-old Sardinas hit .319/.348/.419 over 331 plate appearances at Triple-A Norfolk after he was cut loose by the Padres.

The Yankees’ Managerial Search

By Mark Polishuk | November 28, 2017 at 9:01am CDT

After the announcement that Joe Girardi won’t be back to manage the team in 2018, the Yankees are now looking for just their third skipper in the last 22 seasons. The new manager will step into an enviable situation, taking over a team with one of the sport’s biggest payrolls and an array of young star talent, though there will be immediate pressure on the new dugout boss to win. Eight years without a World Series counts as a major drought by the Yankees’ standards, and since the current roster finished just a game shy of the AL pennant, there is reason to believe this group is ready to win now.

As with previous managerial searches, we’ll keep a running post on any news and rumors connected to possible candidates for the Yankees’ job.

Latest Updates

The Yankees are not limiting themselves to the five candidates that are known to have interviewed, ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden reports (Twitter links). That seems to introduce a bit of a wild card to the search at this stage. How many additional candidates might get interviews isn’t known, but there seems to be at least one name already on the list for a sit-down. Beltran, who is discussed further below, will be brought in for a closer look, according to Steve Phillips of MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (via Twitter).

Interviewing Candidates

Dodgers third base coach Chris Woodward is slated to interview, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets. The former big league infielder has been a base coach and an infield instructor with the Dodgers and Mariners for the past four seasons. It is not known at present whether others will also get a shot at an interview, but owner Hal Steinbrenner did make clear the club will meet with “less than ten” candidates, as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch recently tweeted. (The team’s plans for additional interview rounds are also not apparent.)
Broadcaster Aaron Boone and Giants coach Hensley Meulens have each had their interviews, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported would take place. Boone’s candidacy was first reported by ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). The long-time big leaguer, who spent a small but memorable portion of his career with the Yankees, does not have any big league coaching experience. Meulens is also a former Yankee player; Sherman first called him someone “who could come into play” for the job.
The Yankees have interviewed former Mariners and Indians skipper Eric Wedge for the post, tweets ESPN New York’s Andrew Marchand. The 2007 American League Manager of the Year, Wedge hasn’t been in a big league dugout since the 2013 season — his final in Seattle. Since that time, he’s spent two seasons as an analyst with ESPN and another two working with the Blue Jays’ player development department. He’s currently a field coordinator in the Toronto organization.
Bench coach Rob Thomson sat down with the organization about the managerial opening on November 8th, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter), though it doesn’t seem as if he faced the press afterward. Thomson has been on Girardi’s staff since 2008 and previously worked in the Yankees’ player development department.

Preliminary Candidates (Interview Status Unknown)

If Boone was an unexpected candidate, then the most recent possibility to be floated comes straight from left field — almost literally. Even as he announced the end of his playing career today, Carlos Beltran was generating buzz in relation to the Yankees managerial opening. In interviews with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and ESPN.com’s Marly Rivera, Beltran said he wants to manage (at least eventually) and suggested he’d have interest in the gig. Cashman did not commit to anything when asked to comment, saying that he’s “aware of [Beltran’s] interest in managing in the future” but declining to elaborate otherwise on the matter. Carlos Beltran tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post that he had a “brief conversation” with GM Brian Cashman and that he has a desire to apply his knowledge and passion for the game to a managerial role in the Majors. Beltran also indicated that he hasn’t been asked to come in for an interview, though, and Sherman suggests that the Yankees may only interview one or two additional candidates for the position, casting some doubt as to whether Beltran is truly a possibility.
Former major league infielder/outfielder Jerry Hairston Jr. is a potential candidate, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic hears (Twitter link). Hairston was a member of the Yankees’ most recent World Series-winning team in 2009, but he doesn’t bring any coaching experience to the table. Interestingly, though, former ESPN.com writer Mark Saxon noted back in 2013 that managing could be in Hairston’s future. As Saxon detailed, Hairston is fluent in Spanish – a valuable asset for a manager – and, at the time, was a mentor to some of his younger teammates on the Dodgers. That season went down as the last of Hairston’s playing career. The 41-year-old has been working as a Dodgers broadcaster since retiring in December 2013.
Per Sherman and MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, some of the internal candidates likely to receive consideration include bench coach Rob Thomson, first base coach Tony Pena, minor league hitting and baserunning coach Reggie Willits, and minor league managers Al Pedrique (Triple-A), Jay Bell (advanced A-ball) and Josh Paul (short season A-ball).

Unlikely Candidates/Not In The Mix/No Longer Under Consideration

The Yankees asked the Athletics for permission to speak with manager Bob Melvin, but were not given authorization, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter).
Former Yankee outfielder and current Dodgers special adviser Raul Ibanez was mentioned by both Sherman and Hoch. But he decided not to pursue the position after being contacted, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post tweets.
Recently fired Tigers manager Brad Ausmus also declined a chance to interview, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter).
Josh Paul isn’t considered a candidate, according to George A. King III of the New York Post.
Kevin Long was initially cited by Sherman as “a long shot,” but has since signed on to become the Nationals’ hitting coach.
Yankees VP of baseball operations Tim Naehring tells ESPN.com’s Andrew Marchand that he isn’t interested in being considered for the job. Naehring has worked almost entirely in front office capacities for the Reds and Yankees since he retired from playing, and Marchand suggests that Naehring is a future GM candidate for other teams.
The Yankees have not contacted the Marlins about manager Don Mattingly, as Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported. Miami has announced more recently that Mattingly will remain with the organization as manager.
The idea of Alex Rodriguez becoming the Yankees’ manager is “the longest of long shots,” according to Hoch. Given the controversy and hard feelings that seemed to accompany A-Rod’s final years in New York, Rodriguez would indeed seem like a very unlikely fit, especially given how he has seemingly moved onto a new career in broadcasting.

Team Approach

Yankees GM Brian Cashman discussed the search with reporters, including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch. Cashman said that the organization prefers a “fresh voice” to connect with its young players, indicating that Girardi wasn’t the man to improve “the connectivity and the communication level of the players in that clubhouse.” The veteran executive says he did not enter the search process with a list of candidates already prepared, suggesting it’s a wide-open search.
Interestingly, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (Twitter links), the plan is for candidates to meet with the media — in part, perhaps, as part of the evaluation process. And though Cashman says he may in the past have sought out employees with whom he had previously worked, he notes that won’t be a “driving force” in this case. Sherman previously discussed that potential factor.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

By Kyle Downing and Jason Martinez | November 28, 2017 at 8:18am CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

Following a World Series loss to the Houston Astros, the Dodgers will enter the 2018 season with the majority of their core intact. The NL West division competition won’t figure to get any easier, however, and the organization’s payroll obligations already exceed the luxury tax threshold, which will make it more complicated to patch holes through free agency. The good news is that they enter the winter with wealth in another area … their deep farm system.

Guaranteed Contracts

Clayton Kershaw: $98MM through 2020 (can opt out of contract following the 2018 season)
Kenley Jansen: $66MM through 2021
Justin Turner: $48MM through 2020
Rich Hill: $34MM through 2019
Adrian Gonzalez: $21.5MM through 2018
Kenta Maeda: $18MM through 2023
Scott Kazmir: $16MM through 2018
Brandon McCarthy: $10MM through 2018
Logan Forsythe: $8.5MM through 2018
Yasiel Puig: $7.5MM through 2018 (under club control through 2019; eligible for arbitration following the 2018 season)
Hyun-Jin Ryu: $7MM through 2018

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Yasmani Grandal (5.115) – $7.7MM
Luis Avilan (4.146) – $2.3MM
Alex Wood (4.123) – $6.4MM
Tony Cingrani (4.088) – $2.2MM
Josh Fields (3.162) – $2.2MM
Pedro Baez (3.059) – $1.5MM
Enrique Hernandez (3.054) – $1.3MM
Joc Pederson (3.022) – $2.0MM
Yimi Garcia (3.004) – $700K

Other Financial Obligations

$24.5MM to Yaisel Sierra through 2021
$14MM to Hector Olivera through 2020
$6.5MM to Erisbel Arruebarrena in 2018
$5.5MM to Matt Kemp through 2019
$2MM to Dian Toscano through 2019

Free Agents

2B Chase Utley, OF Andre Ethier, OF Curtis Granderson, OF Franklin Gutierrez, SP Yu Darvish, RP Brandon Morrow, RP Tony Watson

[Los Angeles Dodgers Depth Chart | Los Angeles Dodgers Payroll Outlook]

At the kickoff of last year’s offseason, reports surfaced that the Dodgers were under pressure from MLB to cut payroll, though CEO Stan Kasten insisted that it wasn’t a mandate. While there hasn’t been word of any similar pressure this winter, Los Angeles already has over $207MM in guaranteed commitments for 2018 before so much as even inquiring on any free agents. Forty million of those dollars are owed to a combination of Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir and a group of players who are no longer on the roster. While it’s probably not safe to expect the Dodgers to be stingy, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see them shy away from long-term, high-risk contracts, especially with some notable extension candidates making up the core of the MLB roster and another wave of talent budding in the upper minors.

That minor-league system includes six players in MLB Pipeline’s top 100, four of whom are either at the Double-A or Triple-A level. Their top two prospects, Walker Buehler and Alex Verdugo, could help at the major league level early in 2018. With that kind of farm system, it’s possible we could see the Dodgers swing a major trade. I already noted that they’d be an ideal fit in a hypothetical Marcell Ozuna trade with the Miami Marlins, and indeed it seems like they’re in play for Giancarlo Stanton to an extent as well (though certainly his contract is larger than anything it would take to sign any of this year’s free agents). On paper, it seems like Verdugo in particular would make the most sense as a trade chip, depending upon how the club views a deep set of outfielders, though it remains to be seen whether the Dodgers have any real interest in dealing him.

Speaking of Stanton, the Dodgers appear to be one of the best fits for his services. Not only are they one of the few teams with both the prospects and financial muscle to lure the NL MVP from Miami, but they may have an added advantage considering Stanton is an L.A. native. In fact, recent reports indicate that he’d approve a trade to the Dodgers; if he truly wants to land there, and the team is at least willing to offer enough to force the Marlins’ hand, then this could be a match. But it’s not presently clear just how much interest the Dodgers have and whether Stanton would push hard to go to one specific team.

The possibility of adding a big bat ties into a complicated picture on the position-player side. It seems probable that Gonzalez will take at least some of the time at first base to open the season, so as things stand currently, the Dodgers would enter 2018 with some combination of Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger, Yasiel Puig and Joc Pederson in the outfield, with Enrique Hernandez likely to fill a backup role and Andrew Toles as a sort of dark horse for playing time. Of course, Gonzalez faded badly in an injury-riddled 2017 season, ending with a shockingly poor .242/.287/.355 slash line in just 252 plate appearances last year. If he can’t rebound to some semblance of his former self, the Dodgers might ultimately opt to cut him loose (and eat his enormous salary) in order to move Bellinger back to first. This concern could lead to L.A. signing a platoon partner for Gonzalez at first, or adding a cheap right-handed outfield option to their roster. From my point of view, however, it doesn’t make much sense for the Dodgers to mess around with the middle- and lower-tier options at those positions. Their roster is already crowded with many players of that type, so it might not be worth sacrificing a roster spot to add another part-time bat to the mix.

Logan Forsythe is currently listed at the top of the second base depth chart for the Dodgers, and it would be perfectly reasonable to open the season with him at the keystone. Justin Turner and Corey Seager are obvious locks for their positions, so it’s hard to imagine the Dodgers making any real changes to their infield. They could, however, explore some veteran backup options. It wouldn’t be a complete shock to see them re-sign Chase Utley. The Dodgers could probably use a lefty-hitting infielder, and the 39-year-old veteran fits the bill. Other options to hit from the left side include switch-hitters Erick Aybar and Jose Reyes, but the trade market could well hold more promising possibilities.

The back end of Dodgers’ rotation for the past couple of seasons has been a patchwork quilt of oft-injured hurlers who provide solid value when healthy. But the front end is absolutely dynamite; legend Clayton Kershaw will once again be the team’s opening day starter, while Rich Hill and Alex Wood are locks for the number two and three spots. Beyond that, things get a little murkier. Kenta Maeda was a lights-out relief pitcher in the playoffs, and although he’ll probably open the season in the Dodgers’ rotation, they could also opt to use him once again as a relief ace. Buehler will contribute in some capacity this season, but I’d put my money on the Dodgers sending him to Triple-A to open 2018. Julio Urias will probably return from injury at some point as well, though that will be much later in the year and he’ll be nursed back to health with quite a lot of caution. Beyond that, whether they sign a free agent pitcher or employ a wait-and-see approach with their brittle rotation depth seems like a coin flip.

If they do sign a free agent pitcher, a reunion with Yu Darvish seems plausible. Despite an implosion during the playoffs, Darvish was solid for the Dodgers overall and comes with an extensive track record of success. Beyond him, they could be in on Jake Arrieta, or attempt to trade for Chris Archer of the Rays or Michael Fulmer of the Tigers. With the kind of rotation depth the Dodgers have, it makes more sense for them to look at large upgrades rather than risky players like Andrew Cashner or Tyler Chatwood.

The Dodgers bullpen is largely in good shape. Tony Watson and Brandon Morrow are set to depart as free agents, but the dominant Kenley Jansen remains under contract as the team’s closer. Luis Avilan, Tony Cingrani, Pedro Baez, Ross Stripling and Josh Fields will all be back as well. Their rotation depth could bleed over into their bullpen, meaning one of Brandon McCarthy, Hyun-jin Ryu or Maeda could pitch in relief to start the season. With all this in mind, it seems as though the bullpen doesn’t need much help. It wouldn’t make much sense, then, to spend big money on Greg Holland or Wade Davis, but they’ll probably explore options from the next tier. A reunion with Morrow would make plenty of sense, and beyond him there are names like Bryan Shaw, Juan Nicasio and Mike Minor that could hold appeal.

What stands out most about the Dodgers organization is its depth of resources and the multitude of ways in which it could combine them. The team could acquire a big name trade target by moving assets at the minor league level or in the majors (Pederson or Yasmani Grandal come to mind), or it could throw a wad of cash at a free agent. The Dodgers will probably make a push for Shohei Ohtani, and landing the two-way star would mean yet more possibilities for corresponding roster tweaks. At the end of the day, it seems likely that they’ll make at least one significant acquisition, and probably more than that. Under Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi, the Dodgers have sought to build without simply relying on bringing in expensive veterans from outside the organization on long-term commitments. But after coming up just shy in the 2017 World Series following five-straight NL West titles, the desire to finally win it all could provide significant motivation to cash in financial and prospect capital and put a super team on the field.

What route Dodgers end up taking this winter is anybody’s guess. But we can safely presume that they won’t have a quiet offseason. They have loads of options and they’ll be exploring all of them. I expect the name “Dodgers” to pop up often in trade and free agent rumors, and I expect them to be at the epicenter when the dominoes start to fall.

2017 Non-Tender Candidates

By Steve Adams and Jeff Todd | November 28, 2017 at 1:00am CDT

There are more than 200 players that are eligible for salary arbitration this offseason, and the deadline to tender each of these players a contract for the 2017 season is Friday at 8pm ET. That shouldn’t be confused with actually signing the player at a given rate for the 2018 season; Friday’s deadline is merely the deadline to inform arbitration-eligible players that they will or won’t receive a contract. The two parties will have another roughly two months to work out salaries before arbitration hearings (if necessary) kick off in February.

As we do each year at MLBTR, we’re providing a list of players whose teams could potentially elect not to tender them a contract, thus sending them into the free-agent pool earlier than expected. It should be emphasized that we’re not indicating that each of these players is likely to be non-tendered (though that’s certainly the case with some of them). Typically, we list any player for which we can envision a 10-20 percent chance of a non-tender.

It should be noted that many of the borderline non-tender candidates below will be traded this week rather than simply cut loose. Other borderline candidates may be presented with an offer that is notably lower than their projections and could accept the “take it or leave it” ultimatum rather than being non-tendered.

I’ve broken the list down by division and included each candidate’s projected salary from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz in parentheses as a point of reference. For a full list of each team’s arb-eligible players, you can check out Matt’s team-by-team arbitration projections.

American League West

Angels: Blake Wood ($2.2MM), C.J. Cron ($2.8MM)
Astros: Evan Gattis ($6.6MM), Mike Fiers ($5.7MM)
Athletics: Chris Hatcher ($2.2MM), Josh Phegley ($1.1MM)
Mariners: Drew Smyly ($6.85MM), Andrew Romine ($1.9MM)
Rangers: A.J. Griffin ($3.0MM), Nick Martinez ($2.0MM)

American League Central

Indians: Abraham Almonte ($1.1MM)
Royals: Mike Morin ($700K)
Tigers: Bruce Rondon ($1.2MM), Alex Wilson ($2.1MM)
Twins: None
White Sox: Al Alburquerque ($1.1MM), Zach Putnam ($1.4MM), Jake Petricka ($1.1MM), Danny Farquhar ($1.5MM)

American League East

Blue Jays: Tom Koehler ($6.0MM), Ryan Goins ($1.8MM)
Orioles: None
Rays: Adeiny Hechavarria ($5.0MM), Jesus Sucre ($1.3MM), Brad Miller ($4.4MM)
Red Sox: Brock Holt ($2.0MM), Sandy Leon ($2.1MM)
Yankees: Austin Romine ($1.2MM)

National League West

Diamondbacks: T.J. McFarland ($1.0MM), Chris Herrmann ($1.4MM), J.J. Hoover ($1.6MM)
Dodgers: None
Giants: None
Rockies: Zac Rosscup ($600K)
Padres: None

National League Central

Brewers: Jeremy Jeffress ($2.6MM), Stephen Vogt ($3.9MM), Hernan Perez ($2.2MM)
Cardinals: None
Cubs: Hector Rondon ($6.2MM), Justin Grimm ($2.4MM)
Pirates: Jordy Mercer ($6.5MM)
Reds: None

National League East

Braves: Danny Santana ($1.1MM), Matt Adams ($4.6MM), Jace Peterson ($1.1MM)
Marlins: None
Mets: None
Nationals: None
Phillies: None

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