MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Dodgers Acquire Dylan Baker

By Jeff Todd | January 2, 2018 at 11:13am CDT

12:10pm: The transaction actually occurred as a trade, with the Brewers set to receive cash or a player to be named later in the deal, per a club announcement.

11:13am: The Dodgers have claimed righty Dylan Baker off waivers from the Brewers, according to a tweet from Chris Cotillo of SB Nation. Baker had been designated for assignment by Milwaukee.

The 25-year-old hurler has spent his entire professional playing career to date with the Indians, who took him in the fifth round of the 2012 draft out of Western Nevada College. He was claimed by the Brewers earlier in the offseason, though obviously he won’t end up suiting up with that organization (barring future waiver movement).

Though Baker has not thrown much of late, owing to Tommy John surgery, he has obviously drawn the attention of scouts around the game. In 2017, Baker worked to a 2.84 ERA in 12 2/3 Double-A frames over 13 appearances, recording a healthy 10:1 K/BB ratio. He had mostly worked previously as a starter, so it’s somewhat unclear what role he might occupy moving forward.

MLBTR Poll: Best 3-Year Signing To Date

By Jeff Todd | January 2, 2018 at 9:09am CDT

Remarkably, no free agents have secured MLB guarantees of four or more years to this point, as the MLBTR 2017-18 free agent tracker shows. Hyun-soo Kim did get that length of deal to return to his native Korea, and several players picked up vesting options for fourth seasons, but it’s still a notable aspect of this winter’s player market.

That said, several players have secured promises for at least three campaigns, some of which include hefty average annual values. Relievers have dominated the early proceedings, but two position players and two pitchers who are expected to work as starters are among those to secure the largest contracts to date.

Keeping our field to the group of players who’ve secured three-year pacts, which do you think was the wisest signing, all things considered?

Carlos Santana, 1B, Phillies ($60MM with club option): While most sluggers remain uncommitted entering 2018, Santana was pursued by multiple teams and ended up as a surprise first splash from the Phils’ front office. This was a competitive bidding situation for an accomplished hitter who is limited to playing first base, but there’s an argument to be made that the team has added a cornerstone piece at a palatable price and manageable term of commitment.
Wade Davis, RP, Rockies ($52MM with vesting player option): While we had guessed that Davis could take down four years, he took a higher annual value over a slightly shorter term. The deal also leaves Davis with some protection at the back end, as he’ll have a very achievable vesting player option for the 2021 campaign. It’s possible to highlight the record-setting AAV here, but the Rox also no doubt feel pleased that they got the open market’s best closer at a lower overall guarantee than that secured by Mark Melancon last winter.
Tyler Chatwood, SP, Cubs ($38MM): Here at MLBTR, we thought we might be a bit bullish on Chatty when we predicted he’d secure a three-year guarantee. It turned out we were extremely light on the dollars, as he ended up nearly doubling our best guess. Teams obviously were enamored of his stuff and youth; if he can thrive while pitching full-time away from Coors Field, perhaps the Cubs may yet have a bargain.
Zack Cozart, SS/3B, Angels ($38MM): Year after year, Cozart has rated among the best defenders in baseball. And more recently, he has shown the bat to match, never more than in a highly productive 2017 campaign. But there just has never been adequate demand at short to drive his market. Enter the Angels, who intend to utilize Cozart at third base, where he’ll pair with the incomparable Andrelton Simmons and new second baseman Ian Kinsler to form an incredibly talented trio of defensive infielders.
Mike Minor, SP/RP, Rangers ($28MM): Though he rebounded as a reliever in 2017, Minor has in the past been quite a high-quality starter. It seems that the Rangers’ willingness to utilize him in that role may have been a separator to allow the team to land Minor. His health remains a question, but if Minor can return to anything like his former form in the rotation he’d deliver huge value on the contract.
Jake McGee, RP, Rockies ($27MM with vesting option): We expected the power lefty to secure a three-year deal, but he flew past our best guess ($18MM) at the guarantee. Still, it’s worth remembering that McGee succeeded in baseball’s most difficult pitching environment last year, so he has already shown the Rox what he can do at altitude. And he regained the velocity he had lost in his first year in Colorado, though he still is working at about two mph less than he did in his best days with the Rays.
Bryan Shaw, RP, Rockies ($27MM with vesting option): Here again, an accomplished reliever secured a larger guarantee than we foresaw (in his case, $21MM). Shaw’s recent track record is of the sort that invites the question: does his durability through heavy use prove that he’s a workhorse, or suggest he could be carrying some worn-out parts that might be prone to breaking? Colorado is betting on the former. The 30-year-old has been steadily effective and has always answered the call to this point in his career.

(Link for app users.)

Best 3-year free agent signing to date?

Zack Cozart - Angels 33.30% (5,489 votes)

Carlos Santana - Phillies 26.38% (4,349 votes)

Tyler Chatwood - Cubs 16.97% (2,797 votes)

Wade Davis - Rockies 12.66% (2,087 votes)

Mike Minor - Rangers 5.93% (978 votes)

Bryan Shaw - Rockies 3.37% (555 votes)

Jake McGee - Rockies 1.40% (230 votes)

Total Votes: 16,485

NL Notes: D-Backs, Feldman, Cardinals

By Jeff Todd | January 1, 2018 at 11:41pm CDT

Here are a few recent notes out of the National League to wrap up a quiet first day of the new year. While it’s crickets for now, there figures to be quite a lot of action over the next several weeks as the market sorts itself out in advance of the opening of Spring Training.

The Diamondbacks’ catching unit is designed to “take care of the pitchers first and foremost,” GM Mike Hazen tells Steve Gilbert of MLB.com (in a post that covers that and four other key issues facing the club). Hazen says the team is comfortable with the current triumvirate, which consists of Jeff Mathis, Chris Herrmann, and John Ryan Murphy, even if it doesn’t figure to over much in the way of offensive firepower. Moving forward with a trio of options is a possibility again for the Snakes, says Hazen. There are several other outstanding roster questions, of course, which Gilbert breaks down.
We missed this one at the time it was originally reported, but it’s worthy of note. The Giants have engaged free agent righty Scott Feldman in talks, per a report from Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, via Twitter. It seems San Francisco’s interest is in a minor-league pact. Feldman, who’ll soon turn 35, opened the 2017 season in good form but stumbled before ultimately requiring season-ending knee surgery. While he ended the year with a 4.77 ERA over 111 1/3 innings, Feldman had allowed less than four earned per nine in each of the prior four campaigns. He figures to represent a potentially steady rotation or long relief piece who ought to be available for a limited commitment.
The Cardinals’ recent trade of outfielder Stephen Piscotty was designed, in part, to make way for the team’s addition of Marcell Ozuna. At the same time, as Derrick Goold writes for Baseball America, the deal brought in some much-needed middle-infield depth. Youngsters Yairo Munoz and Max Schrock now sit atop the org’s prospect chart at shortstop and second base, respectively. The complexities involved in these two deals (and a few other related negotiations that did and did not come to fruition) serve to illustrate how many moving pieces can be involved in trade talks.

Taking A Look At What Is Left On The Relief Market

By Jeff Todd | January 1, 2018 at 9:37pm CDT

While the overall free-agent market continues to lag, relievers have moved freely thus far. And that hasn’t been the result of settling for lesser contracts, either. As a group, in fact, those relievers that ranked among MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have signed for nearly exactly the projected amount of guaranteed money. And a handful of other relievers (some of whom were listed by MLBTR as honorable mentions) have also scored significant contracts.

Take a look (link for app users; results compiled utilizing MLBTR’s 2017-18 free agent tracker):

(Yes, Minor is likely slated for rotation work with the Rangers, but he spent 2017 as a reliever and was pursued by many organizations in that capacity. Click here to view all the relievers that have signed thus far.)

Quite a few matches have obviously been made already, but some yet remain. Notably, the trade market has been rather quiet with regard to relievers. The biggest names to move are players such as Jim Johnson and Thyago Vieira. That leaves a host of significant potential trade targets.

Still, many organizations will first consider the possibility of obtaining a needed arm for the cost of cash alone. Teams venturing back onto the open market for relievers will find a depleted stock, but still some possibility of finding impact, depth, or both. You can scroll through all of the relievers still available in free agency, but we’ll run through some of the most notable names below …

Premium Relievers

Two of the three top pen men are still available. Former Royals and Rockies closer Greg Holland, who MLBTR predicted would earn $50MM over four years, is certainly the biggest name left. After seeing his former teammate, Wade Davis, settle for three years (albeit at a record AAV), it seems reasonable to downgrade expectations a bit for Holland, though there’s no reason to think he won’t cash in.

Likewise, the much younger Addison Reed is still available. He has succeeded as a closer and setup man in recent years, with impeccable control and recent health. We guessed he’d secure a fourth guaranteed season and earn a total $36MM contract, though it’s arguable he could yet be worthy of more (or that he’d need to settle for less).

Either of those two pitchers would represent major additions for teams looking to shore up their late-inning units. But they aren’t the only useful relievers left …

Quality Performers

Just one top fifty free agent, lefty Tony Watson, remains unsigned. That’s rather remarkable, really, given the dearth of signings for players at other positions. In any event, Watson ought to draw strong interest. He has ample late-game experience, including as a closer, and turned in twenty strong frames with the Dodgers after a mid-season trade. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $12MM deal.

Otherwise, the top remaining lefty is Brian Duensing, who rewarded the Cubs’ faith in him with 62 1/3 innings of 2.74 ERA pitching. Notably, Duensing was about as effective when pitching with and without the platoon advantage in 2017, though that hasn’t been the case over the duration of his career. It doesn’t help his cause that he’s nearing his 35th birthday, though Duensing ought to do well on a one or two-year deal.

On the right-handed side, former closers Sergio Romo and Koji Uehara both showed signs of life in 2017. The former was lights-out after a mid-season trade, allowing just five earned runs in his 30 2/3 innings (over 25 appearances) with the Rays. And though Uehara posted the second-worst ERA of his career (3.98) and is already 42 years of age, he also averaged 10.5 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9. Both of these hurlers maintained swinging-strike rates in the range of fifteen percent. Of course, Uehara’s future is unclear, particularly given that he missed time late in the year with a neck issue.

Meanwhile, one of the game’s best relievers in terms of results was Matt Albers. Soon to turn 35, Albers recorded a 1.62 ERA over 61 stunning innings. He benefited from some good fortune, to be sure, but his peripherals (including 9.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and a 51.0% groundball rate) also gave evidence of a quality performance. Likewise, 32-year-old David Hernandez produced all year long, ending the season with 55 frames of 3.11 ERA ball and 8.5 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9. Neither of these two pitchers is likely to clean up in free agency, but both seem likely to draw interest from contenders as middle relievers and stood out somewhat from some of the others covered below.

Some of the Best of the Rest

There’s quite an arbitrary dividing line between some of the names just listed and some of those yet to come (not to mention those not listed at all), but we had to draw them somewhere. Here are a few of the other notable hurlers who have also yet to sign (by handedness and alphabetical order):

Righties

Matt Belisle – He was quite good after a miserable start and ended the year with a 4.03 ERA in 60 1/3 innings.
Tyler Clippard – Clipp is still getting swings and misses like he did in his prime, but his flyball heavy approach has yielded an increasing number of long balls in the past two seasons and he struggled with the free pass in 2017.
Seung-hwan Oh – His sophomore MLB season fell far shy of his debut effort, with only a 4.10 ERA through 59 1/3 innings, but the veteran Korean hurler still generated a 12.9% swinging-strike rate.
Peter Moylan – The Aussie continues to thrive in his still-ongoing comeback tour; in 2017, he threw 59 1/3 innings of 3.49 ERA ball.
Bud Norris – Though Norris could not hold his edge as the Angels closer, he had an extended run of success and finished with 10.7 K/9 for the season.
Craig Stammen – In a bounceback campaign, Stammen gave the Padres 80 1/3 innings of 3.14 ERA ball. Though his peripherals (8.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 51.6% groundball rate, 1.34 HR/9) were more good than great, there’s reason to hope he might have another couple seasons of workhorse output left in the arm.
Huston Street – Teams interested in taking a shot on a highly accomplished veteran reliever will surely have interest in Street.

Lefties

Fernando Abad – He quietly posted a 3.30 ERA in 43 2/3 innings, though he was not given much action in high-leverage spots.
Jorge De La Rosa – In his first season as a full-time reliever, De La Rosa only carried a 4.21 ERA but utterly dominated lefties, who struggled to a .192/.253/.292 batting line.
Francisco Liriano – It was not a productive overall season for Liriano, who struggled both before and after a trade and move to the pen, but he nevertheless held the 100 opposing southpaws who strode to the plate against him to a .247/.300/.355 slash.
Oliver Perez – Though the overall results weren’t great, Perez was still tough for lefties to square up (.227/.301/.364).
Travis Wood – There wasn’t much to love about Wood’s output in 2017, and he was just cut loose by the Padres, but it wasn’t long ago that he was a useful pen presence with swingman abilities.

Taking Inventory: Cincinnati Reds

By Jeff Todd | January 1, 2018 at 6:26pm CDT

The Reds have already parted out most of the components of their most recently competitive roster. It seems the inclination now is to begin climbing the hill rather than continue to strip away veterans. That being said, this is a club that won just 68 games in 2017 and has shown no real indication of ramping up spending.

In short, the Reds are in no position to decline to consider trades involving shorter-term veteran assets. At the same time, indications are that they have fairly hefty asking prices affixed to some of their most notable trade pieces.

Two Years of Control

Billy Hamilton, CF (projected $5.0MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2019): The game’s preeminent burner, Hamilton has drawn a steady drumbeat of trade chatter all winter. Thus far, nothing has come together, but it still feels reasonably likely that another organization will make a significant enough offer to tempt the Reds. After all, though Hamilton has yet to show he can consistently reach base, his lofty baserunning and defensive value make him a highly useful player even if his career ceiling with the bat is still about twenty percent below league average. Dealing Hamilton would clear room in the outfield rotation for youngster Jesse Winker, who showed well in his 2017 debut.

Scooter Gennett, 2B (projected $6.1MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2019): The Cinci front office made good on its surprising claim of Gennett before the 2017 campaign. He rewarded the faith with 497 plate appearances of .295/.342/.531 hitting and 27 home runs — far and away his best full-season output. That said, Gennett has never hit lefties much and is generally graded as a below-average defender at second, limiting his value. There has been little reported interest to this point, though perhaps it still wouldn’t surprise if he ends up on the move.

Longer-Term Assets

Joey Votto, 1B ($157MM thru 2023; includes buyout on 2024 club option): Sure, he’s 34 years of age, but Votto has been the second-best hitter in baseball over the past three years. That makes the remainder of his massive extension seem quite a bit less onerous than might have been feared. Odds are, though, we won’t get a chance to see how the rest of the league values Votto. All indications are that Votto is not interested in waiving his full no-trade protection and the Reds seem happy to keep him around.

Raisel Iglesias, RP ($13.5MM thru 2020; may opt into arbitration; arb-eligible thru 2021); The Reds’ most obviously marketable player, Iglesias has blossomed into one of the game’s better young late-inning relievers. He’s capable of functioning as a traditional closer or multi-inning stopper. Though he’ll ultimately have a chance to boost his earnings by opting into arbitration, Iglesias remains a controllable bargain. While we analyzed his possible market earlier in the offseason, indications are that the Reds have advertised such a high and firm asking price that interested parties aren’t even coming onto the lot to kick the tires.

Eugenio Suarez, INF (projected $4.4MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2020): With three years of control remaining, the Reds don’t need to deal Suarez. But they could conceivably find it an opportune time to move the 26-year-old, who is fresh off of an excellent .260/.367/.461 campaign, with top prospect Nick Senzel nearing MLB readiness. That said, Suarez is capable of playing elsewhere in the infield, and it seems likelier that the Reds will explore a long-term contract than try to work out a deal for a player who could well be a key part of the organization’s next contender.

Tucker Barnhart, C ($16MM through 2021; includes buyout on 2022 club option): A quality defender who has increasingly shown he can hit at a useful rate, Barnhart only signed his contract in September. It’d rank as quite a surprise were he to be moved at this point.

Adam Duvall, OF (pre-arb eligible): Though he has swatted over thirty home runs in each of the past two seasons, Duvall has been a roughly league-average hitter due to his inability to get on base (career .296 OBP). That said, highly-rated glovework in the gives Duvall the profile of a solid average regular in the corner. There’d be interest if the Reds make him available, but it still seems likely he’ll be kept in the fold.

Scott Schebler, OF (pre-arb eligible): You can basically take exactly what was written about Duvall and apply it to Schebler. While the latter did not grade as a top-end right fielder in 2017, he did show he can palatably patrol center. With just 1.132 years of service to this point, though, Schebler is likely to remain in Cincinnati for the time being.

Anthony DeSclafani, SP (projected $1.1MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2020): Elbow troubles robbed all of 2017 from DeSclafani. He remains an exciting pitcher when healthy, and the Reds are all but certain to hold onto his upside this winter.

Brandon Finnegan, SP (pre-arb eligible): Similarly, Finnegan is coming off of a season in which entered with big expectations but managed only four outings. Cinci has little choice but to hope for better health. It’s worth noting, too, that other controllable starters — most notably, eye-opening 2017 debutante Luis Castillo — are likely to be kept in the stable.

Michael Lorenzen, RP (projected $1.4MM arbitration salary; arb-eligible thru 2021): Perhaps the Reds would at least listen to offers on Lorenzen, who did not produce results to match his big-time stuff in 2017. He’d surely draw interest after showing a personal-high 10.4% swinging-strike rate and strong 54.6% groundball rate in heavy usage (83 innings over seventy appearances). But for the Reds, the hope remains that he’ll join Iglesias to form a dominant late-inning duo. It’s even less likely that the club will end up dealing other relief assets, though perhaps there could be some interest in Wandy Peralta, who turned in a solid (if hardly dominant) rookie season.

Jose Peraza, INF (pre-arb eligible): Unless the Reds decide to give up on Peraza, he’ll remain on hand to fill out the infield. But the team is no doubt concerned with what it saw over his 518 plate appearances in 2017, as Peraza managed 23 stolen bases but otherwise produced a marginal .259/.297/.324 batting line.

Salary Dump Candidates

Homer Bailey, SP ($49MM through 2019; includes buyout of 2020 mutual option): If you’re looking for positives, you’d note that Bailey showed velocity in the range of his career peak (94 mph or so) over 91 frames in 2017 — his most extensive action since 2014. But he managed only a 6.43 ERA in that span, with just 6.6 K/9 against 4.2 BB/9. Given that the Reds have a need for innings, and no doubt still have some hope that Bailey will find his way, it seems likeliest this contract will remain on the books for the time being.

Devin Mesoraco, C ($13.125MM in 2018): Just as he was finally showing some signs of health and productivity with a .260/.345/.600 output last June, Mesoraco hit the DL with a shoulder strain. He scarcely hit at all upon returning and ended up suffering a season-ending foot fracture in mid-August. In the aggregate, the Reds have received virtually nothing for the $28MM they committed to Mesoraco via extension: he has provided just 271 plate appearances of 61 OPS+ hitting over the past three seasons. With nearly half of that outlay still left to be paid in the final year of the deal, it’s hard to see Mesoraco as anything but a potential salary dump candidate at this stage. In all likelihood, the Reds will carry him into the season and see what they can get — with the idea of a mid-season trade still carrying at least some potential for saving a bit of cash.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL Notes: Castellanos, Yankees, Orioles, Twins

By Steve Adams | January 1, 2018 at 2:26pm CDT

The Tigers pursued an extension with outfielder Nicholas Castellanos “to no avail” following the 2017 season, MLB.com’s Jason Beck reports. The 25-year-old slugger (26 in March) posted a very solid .272/.320/.490 batting line in a breakout campaign at the plate and gave the Tigers room for further optimism; Castellanos ranked fifth in the Majors in hard-contact rate (among qualified hitters), and Statcast credited him for the 10th-highest number of barreled balls in MLB. He has a projected arbitration salary of $7.6MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and is still under club control for another two seasons. Defensive question marks abound with Castellanos, as he’s rated poorly both at third base and in right field, but there’s plenty of value in his bat. The inability to come to terms on an extension only furthers the chance that the rebuilding Tigers trade Castellanos before he reaches free agency.

A few more notes from around the AL…

MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch writes that the Yankees seem likely to bring in an infield option from outside the organization to man either second base or third base in 2018. Trades of Starlin Castro and Chase Headley freed those two spots up, and while Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar give the Yanks a pair of high-upside assets at those positions, some additional certainty and depth in a season with lofty expectations seems plenty reasonable. Per Hoch, the Yankees have been in touch with Todd Frazier, and it’s also possible that they explore a reunion with versatile Eduardo Nunez.
The Orioles have historically been willing to wait out the free-agent market in search of bargains late in the winter, but they’ll have more company than usual in that regard this year, writes Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun. Baltimore GM Dan Duquette and his staff have had varying degrees of success in that regard, striking gold with a February signing of Nelson Cruz but also issuing regrettable deals to Yovani Gallardo and Ubaldo Jimenez. This time around, the Orioles will be looking to fill multiple spots in their rotation in addition to a left-handed bat. But, with just a handful of the top MLB free agents having agreed to deals, Baltimore’s typically patient approach may not be as fruitful as it has in the past.
Though they’ve explored various trade scenarios, the Twins are likelier to address their rotation on the free-agent market, MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger writes in his latest Twins Inbox piece. Minnesota has a blank payroll slate beyond the 2019 season, and Bollinger suggests that the front office would rather use those financial resources than deplete the farm system in order to add to the rotation. The Twins have been prominently mentioned as a possible landing spot for Yu Darvish, though it stands to reason that they’ve also likely looked into Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn as well.

Taking Inventory: Kansas City Royals

By Steve Adams | January 1, 2018 at 12:21pm CDT

After an extended run at or near the top of the American League Central, the Royals have watched much of their vaunted core hit the open market. What remains in Kansas City, beyond the everlasting title of 2015 World Series champions, is a collection of fairly expensive veterans and a larger group of unproven young assets. The Royals appear destined for a rebuild, joining their AL Central brethren in Detroit and on the south side of Chicago in that regard.

While there aren’t all that many top-shelf trade chips, GM Dayton Moore and his staff do have some commodities that they can market to other clubs as an alternative to the stagnant free-agent market.

One-Year Rentals

Kelvin Herrera, RHRP (projected arbitration salary of $8.3MM): Herrera is coming off the worst season of his career, having struggled to a 4.25 ERA as he watched his K/9 (8.5), BB/9 (3.0) and HR/9 (1.37) all trend in the wrong direction. That said, Herrera’s average fastball checked in at 97.5 mph, tying him for 10th among all qualified relievers in the game. His 11.5 percent swinging-strike rate and 34 percent chase rate on pitches out of the zone were both down from recent seasons but comfortably above the league average. He’s still just 28 years old, as well.

Joakim Soria, RHRP ($10MM through 2018, including buyout of a 2019 mutual option): Unlike Herrera, Soria saw virtually all of his rate stats improve in 2017. While his 3.70 ERA looks fairly pedestrian, his 2.23 FIP and 3.16 SIERA are more indicative of the success he enjoyed as his K/9 (10.3), BB/9 (3.2), HR/9 (0.16), ground-ball rate (54.8 percent) and swinging-strike rate (13.2 percent) all looked better than they did in a lackluster 2016 season. Soria will turn 34 in May, and he’s not cheap at $10MM, but he can help the back of a contender’s bullpen.

Jason Hammel, SP ($11MM through 2018, including buyout of a 2019 mutual option): Hammel is 35 years old and registered an ERA north of 5.00 last year, but his 4.37 FIP, 7.2 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 are all at least somewhat encouraging. He’s made at least 29 starts in each of the past four seasons, so a team looking for durable innings in the fifth slot of its rotation could do worse than lining up a deal for Hammel. It shouldn’t require much more than simply picking up the tab on his $11MM remaining salary.

Brandon Moss, 1B/OF/DH ($8.25MM through 2018, including buyout of a 2019 mutual option): Moss, 34, saw his production crater in 2017. The slugger hit just .207/.279/.428 and struck out in nearly a third of his plate appearances, though he did connect on 22 homers and walk at a solid 9.2 percent clip. Still, his struggles in ’17 make him a difficult piece to move right now — especially in a market that is once again rife with first basemen who come with longstanding platoon issues. If he rebounds in the first half, Kansas City shouldn’t have much trouble dealing him to a contender in need of a bench bat come July.

Two Years of Control

Brandon Maurer, RHRP (projected arbitration salary of $3.8MM): Maurer, 27, posted a sky-high 6.52 ERA last year, continuing a trend of delivering questionable bottom-line numbers despite more promising underlying metrics. Maurer averaged 96.6 mph on his heater and racked up a strikeout per inning with solid control. His 1.21 HR/9 mark was a bit high but not extraordinarily so — especially when considering the leaguewide uptick in long balls. But, Maurer stranded just 61.1 percent of the baserunners he allowed, and his career 64.9 percent mark in that category is demonstrably worse than the league average.

Longer-Term Assets

Danny Duffy, SP ($60MM through 2021): One of Kansas City’s most marketable assets, Duffy would be an upgrade for any rotation in the league. The 29-year-old has never crossed the 180-inning threshold in the Majors due to previous injuries and a stint in the K.C. bullpen, but he’s been very good since moving to the rotation on a full-time basis.

Over a span of 50 starts dating back to May 15, 2016, Duffy has worked to a 3.68 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.14 HR/9 and a 37.8 percent ground-ball rate. He’s signed affordably for another four years, and his contract only runs through his age-32 campaign, so interested parties needn’t worry about signing up for too many decline years. He’s not a Jose Quintana or Chris Archer style bargain, but Duffy should command a fairly substantial return in a trade.

Salvador Perez, C ($43.5MM through 2021): The notion of trading Perez likely causes most Kansas City fans to recoil, as the beloved backstop has emerged as one of the faces of the franchise. Few teams are actively looking for a new starting catcher, though Perez would be the type of player that clubs would make other moves to accommodate. That said, the Royals probably relish the notion of keeping Perez on hand to work with a wave of inexperienced young arms, and a trade doesn’t seem especially likely even if they do take off on a large-scale rebuild.

Whit Merrifield, 2B (pre-arbitration, controlled through 2022): Merrifield has enough club control remaining that there’s no urgency to move him, as he could very well be a part of the next contending Royals roster. The late bloomer broke out with a .288/.324/.460 slash in 2017 and led the AL with 34 stolen bases. He’ll turn 29 this month, though, so the Royals could be wary that he’ll be entering a decline once they’re closer to contending again. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal has reported that the Royals are willing to listen to offers on Merrifield.

Scott Alexander, LHRP (pre-arbitration, controlled through 2022): Rosenthal also noted that Alexander could potentially be had even though he, too, has five years of club control remaining. Alexander, 28, turned in an excellent 2.48 ERA in 69 innings last season, averaging 7.7 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 0.39 HR/9 along the way. Lefties hit .240/.313/.317 against him, while righties mustered just a .250/.333/.347 line.

Ryan Buchter, LHRP (pre-arbitration, controlled through 2021): Buchter’s strikeout rate plummeted following a trade from the Royals to the Padres, as he began to throw fewer four-seamers and curveballs while substantially increasing his use of a cut fastball. The 30-year-old Buchter averaged better than 11 strikeouts per nine innings in a season and a half with the Padres, albeit with shaky control and extreme fly-ball tendencies. He’s been terrific against both lefties (.160/.255/.306) and righties (.179/.284/.339) to this point in his MLB career.

Jorge Soler, OF/DH ($12MM through 2020, may opt into arbitration once eligible): Acquired from the Cubs last offseason, Soler didn’t seize the limited opportunity he has in Kansas City last year. In 110 plate appearances, he batted just .144/.245/.258 with a pair of homers. However, Soler raked at a .267/.388/.564 clip in the minors, leaving some room for optimism that the former top prospect can still realize some of his potential at the big league level. There’s little reason for the Royals to sell low on him, given his affordable nature and relative youth (26 in February).

Salary Dump Candidates

Ian Kennedy ($49MM through 2020), Alex Gordon ($44MM through 2019, including buyout of 2020 mutual option)

Moving either Kennedy or Gordon would be a tall order and would almost certainly require the Royals to take on a similarly undesirable contract in exchange. Kennedy remains a durable source of innings — he’s made at least 30 starts in each of the past eight seasons — but his penchant for giving up home runs expanded to new heights in 2017 (1.99 HR/9, 5.38 ERA). Finding a taker for Gordon’s contract would be difficult enough in and of itself, but the Royals would also be wrestling with the notion of dumping the contract of a player that has long served as the face of the franchise. And, as a player with 10-and-5 rights (10 years of MLB service, the past five with the same team), he has full no-trade protection.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

International Notes: Choi, Senga, Yang

By Steve Adams | January 1, 2018 at 9:31am CDT

Happy New Year to all of our readers here at MLBTR! As MLB teams begin to gear up for what should be the most active January in hot stove history, here are a few notes on the international market…

First baseman Ji-Man Choi’s agency in Korea recently spoke to the media about their client’s current foray into free agency and revealed that he’s received offers (presumably of the minor league variety) from the Yankees, Angels, Rays, A’s, Brewers, Marlins, Cubs, Reds, Orioles, Twins, Braves, Blue Jays and White Sox (English link via Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency). The 26-year-old Choi slugged a pair of homers in 18 plate appearances with the Yankees last year and posted a strong year with their Triple-A affiliate, slashing .288/.373/.538 in 87 games. In parts of five Triple-A campaigns, Choi has posted a robust .298/.390/.479 batting line.
Right-hander Kodai Senga of the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks in Nippon Professional Baseball is eyeing a jump to the Major Leagues down the line, per a report from the Japan Times (link in English). Senga, 25 next month, is currently negotiating a new contract with the Hawks, according to the report, so it doesn’t seem as though the move would happen until next offseason at the earliest. Next year will be Senga’s sixth full season in NPB, meaning he’ll have the pro experience and be old enough to be exempt from the international bonus pool system. However, he’d still be subject to the newly augmented posting system agreed to by MLB, NPB and the MLBPA. At present, Senga owns a career 2.52 ERA with 10.1 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 418 innings. The righty moved from the bullpen to the rotation in 2016 and owns a 2.63 ERA in 47 starts over the past two seasons.
Left-hander Hyeon-jong Yang has re-signed with the Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization, Yoo writes in a second report. Set to turn 30 in March, Yang is fresh off an MVP season with the Tigers, having thrown 193 1/3 innings of 3.44 ERA ball with 7.4 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 in the hitter-friendly KBO. The southpaw has garnered interest from MLB teams in the past, though his KBO club did not accept the winning bid when he was initially posted for Major League teams back in the 2014-15 offseason. Yang, who has been pitching professionally since he was 19, now has enough experience to qualify as a true free agent without any restrictions but will nonetheless return to the KBO for a 12th pro season. His deal with the Tigers is worth $2.14MM, per Yoo, giving him the second-highest annual salary of any player in the KBO (behind former Mariners first baseman Dae-ho Lee).

Poll: What’s Next For The Pirates?

By Connor Byrne | December 31, 2017 at 10:39pm CDT

As those who paid attention to the MLB offseason a year ago remember, Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen was among the most popular figures in the rumor mill. At the time, the Pittsburgh icon was coming off a career-worst season both offensively and defensively, which surely hindered the team in its efforts to garner suitable offers for him. Ultimately, the Pirates retained McCutchen and enjoyed a bounce-back year from him at the plate (.279/.363/.486 with 28 home runs in 650 PAs). While McCutchen struggled again in the grass, where he posted minus-14 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-4.5 Ultimate Zone Rating, the onetime National League MVP nonetheless ranked a solid 17th among outfielders in fWAR (3.7).

This winter, on the heels of a rebound year, rumors regarding McCutchen haven’t been nearly as abundant. The Giants are the only known team with interest in the 31-year-old, yet they don’t seem to view him as a priority. Still, although nothing looks imminent on the McCutchen front, it’s possible the five-time All-Star has played his last game with the Pirates – who drafted him 11th overall in 2005.

With McCutchen entering a contract year in 2018, in which he’ll make $14.75MM, general manager Neal Huntington acknowledged this month that the player’s time in Pittsburgh may be winding down. Trading McCutchen prior to the season wouldn’t seem to make much sense if the Pirates plan to compete next season and avoid a third straight non-playoff campaign, but a return to prominence may be a long shot.

With McCutchen in the fold, the Pirates are projected to start 2018 with a payroll of just under $104MM. That would represent a season-opening high for owner Bob Nutting, whose rosters haven’t begun any campaign above the $100MM mark since he took the helm of the franchise in 2007. The Pirates’ low-spending ways may make an offseason McCutchen trade all the more likely, though he’s not the only notable veteran they could jettison to help cut costs. Infielder Josh Harrison, who will make $10MM in his third-last year of team control next season, has drawn widespread trade interest and might find himself in the uniform of the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays or another club by the springtime.

Unlike McCutchen and Harrison – two useful but not great assets – right-hander Gerrit Cole would bring back a significant return in a trade. Not only is the flamethrowing 27-year-old a bona fide No. 2/3 starter, but he’s due a relatively modest $7.5MM in 2018. Considering Cole’s a Scott Boras client, the likelihood of him eschewing free agency in favor of a long-term extension with the Pirates seems low. That could increase their urgency to trade Cole, who’s going into his penultimate year of team control.

No doubt cognizant of the Boras factor, Huntington was reportedly “motivated” to part with Cole earlier this month. It appeared then that Cole would join the Yankees, but talks between them and the Pirates subsequently lost momentum. Even if Pittsburgh and New York don’t eventually find common ground, though, there are plenty of other teams that would benefit from a Cole addition – and the Bucs have engaged with some of those clubs.

At times, the 2017 portion of the offseason was a slow-moving bore, but the payoff is that there will be copious trades and signings in the New Year. With enticing trade chips in McCutchen, Harrison and Cole, the Pirates may often find themselves at the center of the action leading up to April. If you were calling the shots for the club, how would you approach the next couple months?

(poll link for app users)

What should the Pirates do this winter?

Trade more than one 56.99% (8,927 votes)

Keep all three and reassess during the season 21.87% (3,426 votes)

Trade Cole 10.09% (1,581 votes)

Trade McCutchen 7.81% (1,223 votes)

Trade Harrison 3.24% (507 votes)

Total Votes: 15,664

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Taking Inventory: Tampa Bay Rays

By Connor Byrne | December 31, 2017 at 8:23pm CDT

Coming off an 80-win campaign, its fourth straight sub-.500 season, Tampa Bay entered the winter in payroll-trimming mode. The Rays opened last season with a paltry payroll of just over $70MM, and if they’re not even willing to spend that amount in 2018, it’ll make competing in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox all the more difficult. It’s possible, then, that the Rays will opt for a major rebuild in the coming months. So far this offseason, they’ve already subtracted third baseman and longtime face of the franchise Evan Longoria, who went to the Giants in a late-December, five-player trade. Odds are that Longoria won’t be the last notable veteran the Rays jettison over the next few months – especially considering they still have multiple trade candidates who would garner strong returns, as you’ll see below.

One-Year Rentals

Denard Span, OF ($13MM, including a $4MM buyout in 2019): The Rays acquired Span in the Longoria trade to help balance out money, so they could flip the 33-year-old before he ever plays a game for them. However, Span didn’t do his trade value any favors in 2017, combining roughly league-average offense (.272/.329/.427 in 542 plate appearances) with the ugliest defensive showing of his career (minus-27 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-7.5 Ultimate Zone Rating). Span may have been the worst defensive outfielder in the majors last season, likely his last as a center fielder. So, Span’s now a defensively limited corner outfielder without a big bat. That’s not a great combination, especially at his price tag and with so many corner options remaining in free agency. In the event the Rays shop Span but don’t find a taker for him, the Tampa Bay native would be thrilled to suit up for his hometown team.

Wilson Ramos, C ($10.5MM): Ramos wasn’t effective in 2017, nor are there many contending teams looking for short-term upgrades at catcher (for those that are, free agents Jonathan Lucroy and Alex Avila could be more appealing). Those factors, not to mention Ramos’ salary, figure to make him a tough sell. Ramos deserves credit for returning last season from the torn ACL he suffered in September 2016, but his offensive production took a dive (he logged a 124 wRC+ in 2016 and a 92 wRC+ in 2017). The former National also endured an uncharacteristically poor defensive season and threw out only 17 percent of would-be base stealers (down from 37 percent the prior year).

Adeiny Hechavarria, SS ($5MM projected arbitration salary): The Marlins sent Hechavarria to the Rays in a payroll-cutting move last June, which should tell you he doesn’t have much trade value. Hechavarria has been an excellent defender of late (23 DRS, 27.9 UZR since 2015), though, and that could make him a target for a team in need of a slick-fielding infielder. Of course, Hechavarria’s inability to contribute offensively has somewhat undermined his terrific glove work. The 29-year-old owns a lifetime .255/.291/.345 batting line (granted, he hit a more respectable .261/.289/406 last season), and he doesn’t offer much power (.090 ISO) or base-stealing prowess (30 of 48 in his career).

Two Years Of Control

Jake Odorizzi, SP ($6.5MM projected salary): The Rays understandably want a respectable haul for the right-handed Odorizzi, who’s a proven big league starter with youth on his side (28 in March). Unfortunately for them, Odorizzi was a disappointment last year (4.14 ERA/5.43 FIP in 143 1/3 innings), thanks in part to injuries (he went on the disabled list once for a hamstring issue and another time on account of back problems), a career-worst walk mark (3.83 per nine) and a bloated home run-to-fly ball rate (15.5 percent).

Both Odorizzi’s struggles last year and a lifetime groundball rate of 33.7 percent stand out as red flags, though he’s not far removed from a 2014-16 stretch in which he averaged 175 frames per season and pitched to a 3.72 ERA/3.91 FIP. Given Odorizzi’s overall track record, the Rays shouldn’t have trouble finding a team for him if they’re motivated to ship him out.

Corey Dickerson, OF/DH ($6.4MM projected salary): Dickerson opened his career in impressive fashion as a Rockie from 2013-15, though the lefty-swinger struggled against same-handed pitchers and away from hitter-friendly Coors Field during that stretch. In 2016, his first year in Tampa Bay, Dickerson did little to quell concerns that he was a platoon bat and a product of the Mile High air, but he bounced back to a degree last season. The 28-year-old earned his first All-Star nod on the strength of a .312/.355/.548 first-half line, though his production dropped off sharply after mid-July (.241/.282/.408). Moreover, Statcast indicates Dickerson’s expected weighted-on base average (.310) paled in comparison to his actual wOBA (.350). There remain questions about Dickerson’s offensive game, then; on the positive side, Dickerson was similarly solid against both right- and left-handed pitchers for the first time in his career last season, and the advanced metrics (one DRS, 8.7 UZR) looked favorably on his defense from 2016-17. Still, this probably isn’t a player who’s teeming with trade value.

Brad Miller, IF ($4.4MM projected salary): The Rays may have shopped Miller, 28, before tendering him a contract last month. If they did, teams likely weren’t lining up for a player who trudged through a miserable, injury-affected 2017. After posting terrific power numbers (30 homers, .239 ISO) and hitting .243/.304/.482 as a first baseman/shortstop in 2016, he limped to a .201/.327/.337 line with nine HRs and a .136 ISO as a second baseman last season. While Miller is versatile defensively, he has never held his own anywhere with the glove. All things considered, there’s not much value here at the moment.

Dan Jennings, RP ($2.5MM projected salary): Tampa Bay was in the playoff race approaching last July’s non-waiver trade deadline, which led the club to ship a decent prospect – first baseman Casey Gillaspie – to the White Sox for the left-handed Jennings. The Rays fell apart over the season’s final couple months, making the acquisition somewhat of a waste. The club could now try to flip the inexpensive Jennings, who has held his own for most of his career. Jennings has fared nicely against both left- and right-handed hitters, having limited the former to a .307 wOBA and the latter to a .300 mark. While his lifetime strikeout and walk numbers aren’t palatable (7.31 K/9, 4.09 BB/9), Jennings has induced grounders at a 55.2 percent clip and managed a 2.90 ERA over 279 2/3 innings. The soon-to-be 31-year-old may bring back something useful in a trade, then, if the Rays are inclined to move him.

Longer-Term Assets

Kevin Kiermaier, OF (controllable through 2023 for $60MM): There has been no real chatter this winter about the Rays dealing Kiermaier, whom they locked up to an extension prior to last season. Although the solid-hitting defensive maven seems likely to stick in Tampa Bay for the foreseeable future, he’d certainly draw plenty of looks on the trade market. Dating back to 2014, his breakout season, Kiermaier ranks eighth among outfielders in fWAR (16.1), owing to his all-around game. Kiermaier, who will turn 28 in April, combined for ridiculous defensive numbers in center over the previous four seasons (103 DRS, 62.8 UZR) and complemented those with an above-average batting line (.262/.319/.431) and base-stealing ability (60 on 79 tries).

Chris Archer, SP (controllable through 2021 for $34MM): With Kiermaier unlikely to go anywhere, the 29-year-old Archer stands out as the crown jewel of the Rays’ realistic trade possibilities; more than that, the durable, hard-throwing righty’s track record and team-friendly contract combine to make him one of the game’s most valuable assets. As a result, the Rays could simply keep him and continue to benefit from his presence. But if they opt for a full-scale rebuild, aggressively shopping Archer would make sense. While it’s unclear how serious the Rays actually are about trading Archer, he has already garnered significant interest this offseason, unsurprisingly.

Alex Colome, RP ($5.5MM projected arbitration salary; controllable through 2020): A Colome trade looked like an inevitably entering the offseason, and multiple teams have aggressively pursued him recently, but no deal has come together yet. One of those suitors, Colorado, is likely out of the Colome market after signing fellow closer Wade Davis this week. Still, there are other teams with late-game needs – namely St. Louis – that could put together a package for the former starter. Colome, who turned 29 on New Year’s Eve, is coming off a league-best 47-save season (his second full-time campaign as a reliever), though he did see his other numbers fall off precipitously compared to 2016. His K/9 (11.28 to 7.83), BB/9 (2.38 to 3.11), swinging-strike percentage (15.1 to 11.6) and ERA (1.91 to 3.24) all went in the wrong direction last year.

Steven Souza, OF ($3.6MM projected arbitration salary; controllable through 2020): At least one team has checked in with the Rays about the righty-hitting Souza this offseason, but there’s no indication he’s going anywhere. The Rays would be selling high on the three-year veteran if they did part with him, though; despite hip problems, Souza’s fresh off a season in which he slashed .239/.351/.459 with personal bests in PAs (617), home runs (30), ISO (.220) walk rate (13 percent) and strikeout rate (29 percent). It’s worth noting that Souza wasn’t nearly as effective in the two prior seasons, and his xwOBA (.334) fell well short of his actual wOBA (.353) in 2017. To his credit, the soon-to-be 29-year-old complemented his most recent output at the plate with plus defense (seven DRS, 4.3 UZR) in right field for the second straight season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

« Previous Page

Load More Posts

Headlines

Navigation

MLBTR INFO

Connect