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Nippon Ham Fighters Announce They Will Allow Shohei Ohtani To Move To Majors

By Jeff Todd | November 10, 2017 at 2:53pm CDT

2:53pm: FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that, unsurprisingly, the Fighters will set the posting fee for Ohtani at the $20MM maximum. However, while MLB will sign off on the deal, Heyman notes that the Players Association still has some issues to work through before it will also sign off. Among their concerns, per Heyman, is the fact that the Fighters will recoup $20MM for Ohtani while the player himself stands to be paid only a mere fraction of that amount.

Heyman doesn’t suggest that the Union’s concerns will necessarily jeopardize Ohtani’s ability to make the jump to the Majors or that they could lead to a significant alteration in the current structure of the posting system. It’s unclear when the MLBPA will ultimately sign off, but it seems that their trepidation could delay the process to some extent.

7:13am: The Nippon Ham Fighters announced that they will allow star pitcher/slugger Shohei Ohtani* to come to the majors via the posting system, as the Japan Times was among the outlets to report.

That does not quite make things official, as Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball continue to try to sort out the rules that will govern the move. The effort had come into some notable difficulties, though Ohtani’s decision to hire a MLB Player’s Association-certified agent was expected to . And it seems the two leagues, at least, have reached agreement on a framework that could help facilitate Ohtani’s move — so long as his representatives, the MLBPA, and the Fighters are all on board.

At a minimum, today’s news seemingly formalizes the Fighters’ commitment to allowing Ohtani to depart. “Everyone in our ballclub accepts his thoughts,” said Fighters skipper Hideki Kuriyama. That also figures to ratchet up the expectations and the pressures on all other interested parties, helping to maintain momentum toward a finalization of talks — which will only represent the beginning of what could be a fascinating process.

[Related: Scouting Shohei Ohtani]

None of the talks will address Ohtani’s own earning capacity, which will be quite slight — at least on his way into the league. That’s the major reason that he promises to be the most widely pursued player ever to hit the open market. With only a few clubs even able to offer him more than $1MM in a bonus, the decision will surely come down to other factors, the precise nature of which — hitting opportunities? geography? comfort? promotional opportunities? promises of a future extension? — remain to be learned.

*Astute readers will note that MLBTR has now adopted a new spelling. Previously, for a variety of reasons, we utilized the anglicization “Otani.” We have now confirmed, however, that the spelling “Ohtani” is the formal spelling likely to be utilized in his potential transition to the majors.

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Braves Finalize Coaching Staff; Walt Weiss Named Bench Coach

By Steve Adams | November 10, 2017 at 1:18pm CDT

The Braves announced a slew of changes to their coaching staff on Friday, led by the hiring of former Rockies manager Walt Weiss as the club’s new bench coach. Atlanta has also hired Eric Young Sr. as its new first base coach/outfield instructor and Sal Fasano as its new catching coach. Former bench coach Terry Pendleton and first base coach Eddie Perez have been offered new positions within the organization, according to the team’s release.

Weiss, 53, managed the Rockies from 2013-16 before Bud Black took over the club for the 2017 season. In his four years at the helm of the Rockies, the team posted an unsightly 283-365 record, though Weiss managed some clubs that had exceptionally thin pitching staffs. Weiss, the 1988 AL Rookie of the Year with the Athletics, spent the final three seasons of a 14-year Major League career with the Braves. He’s yet to serve as a coach in the Majors, but he’ll bring prior managerial experience and more than a half decade as a special adviser in the Rockies’ front office to his new post with the Braves.

Young, 50, spent parts of 15 seasons playing in the Majors and has spent five prior seasons as a first base coach with the D-backs and Rockies (in addition to his on-air work with ESPN’s Baseball Tonight). Young swiped 465 bases in his career and averaged 47 steals per season from 1995-2000 and has previously worked as a baserunning instructor with the Astros.

The 46-year-old Fasano has worked in a variety of capacities in the Blue Jays organization, serving as a minor league manager as well as a minor league pitching coordinator and a minor league catching coordinator. He spent parts of 11 seasons as a Major League catcher — mostly as a backup — and long carried a reputation as a quality defender and receiver behind the dish.

Per the Braves, hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, assistant hitting coach Jose Castro, third base coach Ron Washington, pitching coach Chuck Hernandez and bullpen coach Marty Reed will all return to the organization in 2018.

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Phillies Hire John Mallee As Hitting Coach, Add Dusty Wathan To MLB Staff

By Jeff Todd | November 10, 2017 at 11:15am CDT

The Phillies have announced that John Mallee will serve as the organization’s new hitting coach. He is one of several coaches that are now on board as the team begins filling out the staff of new manager Gabe Kapler.

According to the team, Dusty Wathan will join on as third base coach after he made a strong run at the managerial post. He was already in the organization and under contract as the manager at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Assistant pitching coach Rick Kranitz will also remain as a coach, though his precise role was not announced. Both of those moves were reported yesterday by MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki.

Mallee, a former Phillies minor-leaguer in his playing days, previously served as the hitting coach for the Astros and, most recently, the Cubs. The carousel has been as dizzying as ever: he’s taking over for Matt Stairs (who left to take the top batting instructor job with the Padres) after being replaced in Chicago by former Red Sox hitting coach Chili Davis.

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Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

By Jeff Todd | November 10, 2017 at 9:58am CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Rockies made their triumphant return to the postseason, but bowed out after dropping the Wild Card play-in game. Overcoming the Dodgers in the NL West will be a tall order, and the Rox face several roster questions.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Ian Desmond, 1B/OF: $62MM through 2021 (includes buyout of club option for 2022)
  • Nolan Arenado, 3B: $17.75MM through 2018 (also controllable via arbitration in 2019)
  • Mike Dunn, RP: $15MM through 2019 (includes buyout of club option for 2020)
  • Gerardo Parra, OF: $10MM through 2018
  • Adam Ottavino, RP: $7MM through 2018

Options

  • Greg Holland, RP: $15MM player option (declined)
  • Alexi Amarista, INF: $2.5MM club option (declined in favor of $150K buyout)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR & Matt Swartz)

  • DJ LeMahieu (5.128) – $8.8MM
  • Charlie Blackmon (5.102) – $13.4MM
  • Chad Bettis (3.096) – $1.5MM
  • Chris Rusin (3.092) – $1.4MM
  • Zac Rosscup (3.021) – $600K
  • Non-tender candidates: Rosscup

Free Agents

  • Amarista, Tyler Chatwood, Carlos Gonzalez, Holland, Ryan Hanigan, Jonathan Lucroy, Jake McGee, Pat Neshek, Mark Reynolds

[Colorado Rockies Depth Chart; Colorado Rockies Payroll]

There are some needs here, but also some resources. Colorado’s payroll has ramped up rather noticeably in the past three seasons, going from $97MM to $112MM and then up to $127MM. As things stand, the team’s 2018 guarantees plus anticipated arb costs add up to about $90MM. Thus, even if there’s no further boost — that’s still unclear — GM Jeff Bridich could have nearly $40MM of open payroll to play around with.

Where, then, do the needs lie? The most noticeable hole, perhaps, is at the back of the bullpen. Greg Holland proved a worthwhile free agent acquisition last winter, though incentives drove his one-year cost up to a healthy $15MM (from an initial $6MM salary). He gave up the chance at another $15MM payday and is expected to decline a $17.4MM qualifying offer, preferring instead to return to free agency. With live-armed lefty Jake McGee and midseason acquisition Pat Neshek also reaching the open market, the Rox will lose a large portion of the their late-inning firepower.

Aug 18, 2017; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies catcher Jonathan Lucroy (21) and relief pitcher Greg Holland (56) celebrate the win over the at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Colorado could pursue some or all of its own free agents, and perhaps it’s reasonable to anticipate that to a point. It certainly seems that both Holland and the team are fond of one another, but he’s going to cost a bundle and comes with all the risks one might imagine would accompany a soon-to-be 32-year-old reliever that recently underwent elbow surgery. The Rockies have a few power arms on hand, including Adam Ottavino and youngsters such as Carlos Estevez, but it’s difficult to imagine any being entrusted with the ninth inning. If Holland can’t be had, then, it’s possible to imagine Bridich checking into the trade market or shopping from among a variety of late-inning arms. Some free-agent hurlers have significant closing experience, such as Addison Reed and Steve Cishek, while others have arguably shown enough to deserve such an opportunity. Among the interesting names on the market are the veteran control artist Neshek, former Rockies hurler Juan Nicasio, and Brandon Morrow. Even if the club lands a big closer, it could consider those and other options as it seeks additional setup options. The team has two southpaws with Mike Dunn and Chris Rusin, but another righty late-inning arm would be welcome.

The fact that there are some openings shouldn’t be read as a suggestion that the pitching staff isn’t in a good place. In fact, the rotation looks solid enough that it could distribute some spare arms to the ’pen if the team enjoys good health fortune. Though Tyler Chatwood is on his way out, the Rockies have compiled a group of solid hurlers behind staff ace Jon Gray. German Marquez and Kyle Freeland, and Chad Bettis are all but certainties for rotation spots so long as they are healthy. Antonio Senzatela and Jeff Hoffman faded late, while Tyler Anderson struggled early and closed strong, but all three could compete for the final job out of camp. Those that fall shy will bolster the relief corps or remains stretched out at Triple-A for depth. It’s conceivable that the Rockies could add another veteran pitcher to this mix, but hardly necessary; it’s more likely, perhaps, that the club will sign a swingman type for the pen and/or add a veteran or two on low-commitment minors deals.

One way to squeeze value out of an existing pitching staff is to improve the catching situation, and that figures to be an area of focus for Colorado. Tony Wolters slid offensively last year, while Tom Murphy struggled through an injury-limited campaign. Mid-season acquisition Jonathan Lucroy shored things up once he arrived and looks to be a strong candidate for a return. Lucroy is already 31 years of age and comes with some questions after lagging at the plate and in the framing department in the first half of 2017. But he has been one of the game’s best receivers for some time now and rebounded upon his arrival in Colorado. Now, he’s a known quantity who would fill a clear need. Other open-market options include Alex Avila and Welington Castillo.

Otherwise, half of the lineup is fixed. Third baseman Nolan Arenado, shortstop Trevor Story, second baseman DJ LeMahieu, and center fielder Charlie Blackmon are all everyday players. The only offseason questions facing this group relate to the possibility of new contracts. Blackmon and LeMahieu are each entering their walk years, while Arenado is just one season behind them. It’s possible to imagine the Rockies exploring long-term arrangements with any of these players, but getting something done will likely require an uncomfortable contractual commitment — especially with Arenado and Blackmon, who are among the very most productive players in the game. The former is still just 26 and could reasonably point to the Giancarlo Stanton extension as a comp; the latter is already 31, thus limiting his contractual upside, but could legitimately seek a four-year promise at a premium rate of pay to forego a shot at free agency. Story, meanwhile, seems safe in his job for now but doesn’t look like an extension candidate at this point given his strikeout problems and the presence of the fast-rising Brendan Rodgers.

That brings us to the potential moving parts on the position-player side of things: first base, the corner outfield, and the bench. There are options here, though it’s also possible the Rockies will take a fairly simple path to rounding things out.

Ian Desmond was supposed to slot in at first last year, a quizzical decision from the start that only looked worse as the season wore on. Desmond struggled at the plate upon returning from injury and ultimately ceded first base to Mark Reynolds, who is now again a free agent. Ultimately, Desmond played mostly in the corner outfield, and it seems likely the versatile veteran will be penciled in there to open the year. Colorado can do little but hope that he follows the path of Gerardo Parra, who surged after a disappointing first season after joining the club as a free agent. Those two could serve to occupy a major portion of the time flanking Blackmon. Meanwhile, the Rockies have a slate of other outfield possibilities on hand. Left-handed hitters Raimel Tapia, Mike Tauchman, and David Dahl are all on the 40-man. Each has shown quite a bit of promise at times but also comes with questions of varying kind and degree. The righty-swinging Noel Cuevas was also just placed on the 40-man and could compete for a job.

Put it all together, and it’s certainly possible that the Rockies already have compiled their outfield unit. Viewed that way, the offseason path is simple: salute former star Carlos Gonzalez on his way out the door and think about a plan to account for the loss of first baseman Mark Reynolds, who provided sufficient production at a bargain rate in 2017. With Pat Valaika on hand to function as a utility option, there really isn’t much to do but settle first base.

At first, there are a multitude of options. Colorado could plan to rely upon youngster Ryan McMahon, who has little to prove at Triple-A. (He has also spent time at second and third, which increases his roster utility now and in the future.) The lefty hitter might be complemented with a right-handed-hitting addition, which could come in the person of Reynolds. Despite tallying thirty home runs, it is worth noting that the 34-year-old’s overall batting productivity remained in the realm of league average, as it has been for most of the past six seasons. With quite a few other slugger types floating around in free agency, Reynolds likely won’t require a major outlay to bring back. Alternatively, the club could look to players such as Mike Napoli or Danny Valencia to join McMahon.

That is the most straightforward and cost-effective way for things to go, but hardly the only one. It’s plenty arguable that the Rockies can and should pursue a more aggressive approach — particularly with an imposing Dodgers team still dominating the division. Colorado pursued Jose Abreu as a free agent and might see a lot to like in his contractual rights. Abreu is one of the game’s better hitters; while he’s not cheap with a projected $17.9MM arbitration salary in his second-to-last arb year, that’s a cost level that won’t break the bank. And the Rockies likely have sufficient prospect depth to entice the White Sox without bankrupting their future. You can probably squint and see high-priced free agent Eric Hosmer as a fit here, particularly given Colorado’s track record of seeking reputed high-character types, and free agency also comes with a variety of other quality first basemen (most notably, the switch-hitting Carlos Santana). Conceivably, the Rockies could also even revert to their original plans with Desmond, putting him in some sort of first base/super-utility role while adding a bigger corner outfield piece instead of a first baseman.

It’s possible to imagine quite a few scenarios, really. Investing in a veteran position player, for instance, might free the Rockies to utilize young position-player assets to acquire a quality young reliever. It’s an exciting time to be a Rockies fan — though that also means expectations will be high for Bridich and his staff.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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NL Notes: Giants, Mattingly, Stanton, Braves, Schu

By Jeff Todd | November 9, 2017 at 11:26pm CDT

Giants executive Brian Sabean discussed his organization’s chief needs recently with reporters including MLB.com’s Chris Haft. While the team is facing a difficult situation with regard to payroll — both in 2018 and beyond — Sabean says there’s urgency to improve in several areas. “Center field needs to be upgraded,” he said. “We have to find an everyday third baseman. And we have to be resourceful in how we reconstruct the bullpen.” Those are the primary spots that seem in need of improvement from the outside; truly getting better, though, will require some combination of creativity and tough tradeoffs.

Here’s more from the National League:

  • The Marlins have confirmed that Don Mattingly will, as expected, be back as manager, as Tim Healey of the Sun-Sentinel writes. The veteran skipper is under contract, as president of baseball operations Michael Hill noted, but the organization had not yet made clear in the midst of an ownership change that he would retain his role. (Of course, it would have rated as a big surprise had the team suddenly gone in a different direction at this point in the offseason.) Mattingly has said he’s excited to get underway with the new ownership group led by fellow Yankees legend Derek Jeter, but it’s yet to be seen just what kind of roster he’ll have to work with.
  • Speaking of notable possible roster changes, Hill has held a conversation with Giancarlo Stanton, Healey reports, but the Marlins are understandably keeping things close to the vest. Expectations remain that the club will slash salary through some significant trades; Hill acknowledged that things haven’t gone as hoped of late and says the goal is to “build a sustainable, consistent, productive major league organization.” Stanton’s massive contract and excellent 2017 season seemingly make him a rather obvious trade piece, and we took a look earlier today at some teams that could line up on paper for Stanton, but his no-trade clause gives him quite a lot of say in a future destination.
  • We’re still waiting to hear about league punishments for the Braves slate of alleged amateur signing transgressions, and it seems the wait will take a while longer. A decision is expected sometime between the GM Meetings and Winter Meetings, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. It’s likely that word won’t come down until December, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick adds on Twitter. Interestingly, though, Sherman says that the organization could end up making a front office decision before the commisioner’s office acts. Indeed, the team has been “quietly interviewing” some potential candidates that could join the front office in some capacity, per Sherman, who adds that the preference remains to seek a reunion with Royals GM Dayton Moore — who hasn’t been allowed to speak with the Atlanta organization to this point.
  • The Giants have hired Rick Schu as their assistant hitting coach, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports on Twitter. Schu, a former big league third baseman, had served as the Nationals’ hitting coach since 2013 but was among the personnel allowed to seek other opportunities after the Nats decided not to retain Dusty Baker. Washington ended up hiring Kevin Long as its new hitting coach.
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Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

By Steve Adams | November 9, 2017 at 8:55pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

For the second time in three years, the Twins made a surprising push for the AL Wild Card. Unlike their 2015 campaign, though, Minnesota made it to the postseason this time around. The 2017 Twins look like a much more believable contender than the ’15 group, so chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine figure to approach this offseason much differently than the 2016-17 offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Phil Hughes, SP/RP: $26.4MM through 2019
  • Joe Mauer, 1B: $23MM through 2018
  • Jason Castro, C: $16MM through 2019
  • Ervin Santana, SP: $14.5MM through 2018 (includes $1MM buyout of 2019 option)
  • Brian Dozier, 2B: $9MM through 2018
  • ByungHo Park, 1B/DH: $6MM through 2019

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Eduardo Escobar (5.128) – $4.9MM
  • Kyle Gibson (4.051) – $5.3MM
  • Ehire Adrianza (3.131) – $1.0MM
  • Ryan Pressly (3.118) – $1.6MM
  • Robbie Grossman (3.060) – $2.4MM
  • Trevor May (3.051) – $600K

Free Agents

  • Matt Belisle, Chris Gimenez (outrighted, elected FA), Dillon Gee, Bartolo Colon, Hector Santiago, Glen Perkins (option declined)

[Minnesota Twins depth chart | Minnesota Twins payroll outlook]

A lot went right for the 2017 Twins, who surprised baseball with an 85-win season and an American League Wild Card berth. That several top-rated young talents took steps forward this season means that much of the lineup is already set.

Byron Buxton rebounded from an awful start to hit .274/.333/.452 over his final 459 plate appearances. Coupled with elite defense and baserunning, Buxton’s turnaround led to a 5-WAR season by measure of Baseball-Reference and 3.5 WAR by Fangraphs. Miguel Sano homered 28 times in 114 games, though he fouled a ball into his shin in August, resulting in a fracture that all but ended his season. He’s expected to be healthy by Spring Training after November surgery. Meanwhile, 26-year-old Eddie Rosario had a breakout year at the plate with 27 homers, improved K/BB numbers and a strong .290/.328/.507 overall line. Jorge Polanco was one of baseball’s worst hitters in July but erupted with a .316/.377/.553 slash over the final two months (234 PAs).

The Twins also received contributions from veteran hitters that are expected to return. Brian Dozier was again one of the top second basemen in the game, hitting 34 homers and swiping 16 bags with a 124 wRC+. Joe Mauer turned back the clock with a .305/.384/.417 line — good for a 116 wRC+. Robbie Grossman walked at a near 15 percent clip and posted a .361 OBP.

With Sano, Polanco, Dozier and Mauer set to return, the Twins could consider their infield largely set. Eduardo Escobar is on hand as an offensive-minded backup, while Ehire Adrianza can provide excellent defense at any infield spot. However, there’s also room yet to make an addition. With Grossman penciled in as the primary DH, the Twins could conceivably look to shift Sano to that spot on a more regular basis. That’d open up the possibility of signing an infielder for the left side of the diamond (e.g. Zack Cozart, Todd Frazier). Alternatively, the Twins could grab a first baseman like Carlos Santana or a corner bat like Carlos Gonzalez to mix in at DH. Santana would give the Twins two of the game’s better first-base defenders (Mauer rated quite well there in ’17) to rotate between first base and DH.

The other spot the Twins could conceivably add would be in right field. Max Kepler is still just 24 years old (25 in February) and has shown plenty of promise in the Majors, but he’s yet to put it all together. An above-average defender who has shown the ability to hit for power, Kepler has also struggled against left-handed pitching, and he’s yet to hit righties well enough to truly compensate for that deficiency. Young Zack Granite profiles as a quality fourth outfielder, but he’s also a left-handed bat, so perhaps the Twins could pursue a right-handed bat in the Austin Jackson mold to at least provide Kepler with a platoon partner.

Minnesota could also look to add a backup catcher to the fray. Castro provided slightly below-league-average offense (above-average relative to other catchers) and a massive defensive upgrade in Minnesota, so they’re likely content with him as the starter. Minnesota could simply opt to re-sign clubhouse favorite Gimenez or turn to prospect Mitch Garver to fill that role. Names like Chris Iannetta and Rene Rivera are among the right-handed-hitting alternatives that could pair well with the southpaw-swinging Castro. (Castro handled lefties just fine with a .737 OPS in 2017, but he’s historically struggled against same-handed opponents.)

While the position-player side of the equation looks promising and gives the Twins the flexibility to be opportunistic, things aren’t as rosy on the pitching staff. Outside of Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios, the Twins don’t have much in the way of rotation stability heading into 2017. Santana finished second in the Majors in innings pitched and turned in a 3.28 ERA, though secondary metrics were far less optimistic about his performance. At worst, he should be a durable innings-eater capable of posting an ERA in the low 4.00s, but he’s outperformed his peripherals for nearly two full years now and could again turn in a mid-3.00s mark. Berrios solidified himself as a Major Leaguer in ’17, and the Twins will now count on him to take a step forward in 2018. He won’t turn 24 until late May, and he comes with some yet-untapped potential despite a quality 3.89 ERA in 145 2/3 MLB innings this year.

Kyle Gibson figures to return after once again teasing the Twins with a Jekyll and Hyde act. Gibson was one of baseball’s worst starters in the first half of the season, but the former first-rounder was Minnesota’s best pitcher in the second half. In 70 2/3 frames after the break, he turned in a 3.57 ERA with 8.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 50.2 percent grounder rate. We’ve seen this roller coaster ride out of Gibson before, but the strong finish likely spared him from a non-tender.

Adalberto Mejia, who showed promise but needs to dramatically improve his efficiency to work deeper into games, is a candidate to grab the fourth spot in the rotation. Minnesota has a pair of top 100 pitching prospects on the cusp of MLB readiness in lefty Stephen Gonsalves and righty Fernando Romero, but both will open the season in Triple-A. Other candidates for the back of the rotation that are currently on the 40-man roster include Aaron Slegers, Felix Jorge and Dietrich Enns. Veteran Phil Hughes is a wild card after undergoing a thoracic outlet syndrome revision surgery this past summer, but he could also work out of the ’pen if he’s healthy enough to contribute.

In short: there’s room to add to the rotation, and that’s perhaps where the greatest level of intrigue sits when looking at the Twins’ offseason. As recently explored at length here at MLBTR, the Twins have an extremely favorable long-term payroll outlook. They’re at about $85MM after arb projections for the 2018 season — some $30MM shy of their franchise-record payroll — but they’re set to see Joe Mauer’s $23MM salary come off the books after 2018. Minnesota has just $24MM guaranteed on the 2019 books and, somewhat incredibly, doesn’t have a single guaranteed dollar committed to the 2020 roster.

The Twins, obviously, aren’t known for pursuing top-tier free agents. But with clubs like the Yankees, Giants, Red Sox and Rangers (among others) all unlikely to commit substantial dollars to starting pitching for various reasons this winter, the Twins could surprise. FanRag’s Jon Heyman has already linked the Twins to the very top levels of the free-agent market, including Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta plus noted second-tier arms Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb. It’d still be a shock to see Minnesota commit $25MM+ annually to Darvish or Arrieta, but the club could realistically afford to do so — especially on a more backloaded deal. And, with the White Sox, Tigers and possibly Royals rebuilding within their division — there’s increased motivation to be aggressive and try to win right now.

Nippon Professional Baseball star Shohei Ohtani is seemingly mentioned in all of our Offseason Outlooks, as he’d unequivocally make sense for any team. It’s at least worth noting a recent AP report that indicated the Twins have the third-most money remaining in their international pool to entice Ohtani (behind the Yankees and Rangers). One has to consider Minnesota a long-shot to sway Ohtani to sign, but it’s an avenue they’ll at the very least explore — and with more resources than most of their competitors. Their lack of a firm DH could also allow them to at least offer occasional at-bats to Ohtani there.

As murky as things are in the Twins’ rotation, the bullpen may be even more unsettled. Sidearm righty Trevor Hildenberger was quietly excellent in his rookie season and has firmly entrenched himself in the team’s late-inning mix. Lefty Taylor Rogers turned in a solid sophomore season and will be back. Hard throwing Alan Busenitz posted a 1.99 ERA in 31 2/3 innings, but he didn’t show much of an ability to miss bats despite averaging nearly 96 mph on his heater. He’ll still likely receive another look. Fellow righty Ryan Pressly threw just as hard, missed more bats and racked up grounders while showing passable control — but a proclivity for serving up homers torpedoed his ERA. His combination of whiffs, grounders and solid control should earn him another chance. Tyler Duffey shined early in a multi-inning role but faded as the season wore on.

The Twins will also have hard-throwing righty (and MLBTR contributor) Trevor May coming back from Tommy John surgery. He could factor into either the rotation or the bullpen mix, though it’s not yet certain which role the club envisions. Other ’pen candidates include righty John Curtiss and lefty Gabriel Moya, each of whom posted video-game numbers in the minors and earned a September call-up. J.T. Chargois, who missed most of the season with an elbow issue but has dominated upper-minors hitters, is another option, as are Jake Reed and Nick Burdi (once he returns from Tommy John surgery).

It’s a long list of names that comes with minimal certainty. If the Twins expect to enter the season as contenders, they’ll need to stabilize the late innings. As is the case with regards to the rotation, the Twins have the payroll capacity to spend. Perhaps the notion of committing a four-year deal at more than $10MM annually won’t sit well with the front office, but even if they don’t pursue Wade Davis or Greg Holland (both reasonable on-paper targets), the market is flush with high-quality arms.

Brandon Morrow, Mike Minor, Addison Reed, Juan Nicasio, Bryan Shaw (who Falvey knows well from his Indians days), Jake McGee and old friend Pat Neshek are all among the relievers coming off strong seasons that should command multi-year commitments. Minor, McGee and Tony Watson may be of particular interest, as the Twins currently lack a second lefty to pair with Rogers. (Buddy Boshers was the most common option in 2017, though he often looked overmatched.) Frankly, it’d be a surprise if the Twins didn’t add at least one reliever on a multi-year deal, and it seems quite likely that they’ll be in play for some higher-end arms that could serve as a closer.

As Spring Training draws nearer, the Twins will also have internal questions to address. Namely, Dozier is controlled for just one more season — his age-31 campaign — leaving the front office with the task of deciding whether to lock up a player that has emerged as a clubhouse leader, a fan favorite and one of the better second basemen in all of baseball.

Brian Dozier | Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Dozier’s age will likely prevent the Twins from wanting to offer an especially lengthy commitment, but Minnesota should at least explore the possibility of retaining him. Daniel Murphy inked a three-year, $37.5MM deal beginning with his age-31 season, though Dozier’s 2016-17 production vastly outpaces Murphy’s two-year platform for that contract. Justin Turner inked a four-year, $64MM deal beginning with his age-32 season. I’d lean toward Turner as the better comp, but both could be talking points in extension discussions.

Top shortstop prospect Nick Gordon is near MLB-ready and could push Polanco to second base in the event that Dozier departs, but Dozier’s presence both on and off the field would be tough to replace.

The Twins will also have to look hard at whether they’d like to approach Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Polanco or Berrios about long-term deals, though there’s obviously quite a bit less urgency on that front; Sano, Buxton and Rosario won’t even be eligible for arbitration until next winter. Polanco and Berrios are even further out.

It’s an odd feeling to write sentences such as: “The Twins should have money to spend this offseason, and it’d be curious if they didn’t do so in a much more aggressive manner than in recent years.” But, that genuinely seems to be the case for the Twins, whose young core, pristine payroll outlook in 2020 and beyond and presence in a division rife with rebuilding clubs gives them an opportunity to reestablish their presence as an annual contender.

We’ve yet to see Falvey and Levine navigate an offseason in which the team acts as an expected contender, so it’s tough to gauge whether the club will utilize free agency or the trade market more in adding to the 2018 roster. Regardless of their preferred avenue, the 2017-18 offseason should be the most active in recent history for the Twins in terms of player acquisition.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2017-18 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Minnesota Twins

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Minor MLB Transactions: 11/9/17

By Steve Adams | November 9, 2017 at 6:52pm CDT

This week’s Minor League Transactions roundup from Baseball America’s Matt Eddy features a staggering 572 minor leaguers that have elected free agency now that the offseason is underway. While many are relative unknowns, there’s also no shortage of former big league contributors among the bunch. Justin Masterson, Jair Jurrjens, Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin, Chris Heston, Felix Doubront, Kris Medlen, Christian Bethancourt, Anthony Gose, Christian Colon and Jose Tabata are among the many recognizable names that are now available for any club to sign. Virtually everyone on Eddy’s list that finds a new team will be inking a minor league pact, but that certainly doesn’t preclude them from delivering significant value in 2018.

Once you’re done perusing that list, here are the rest of the day’s minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Rays have re-signed southpaw Adam Kolarek to a minor league pact and invited him to Spring Training, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.  The 28-year-old Kolarek (29 in January) made his MLB debut with the Rays last season and wound up yielding six runs in 8 1/3 innings at the Major League level. Kolarek turned in a sensational 1.65 ERA with 9.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a ludicrous 72.6 percent ground-ball rate in 43 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level, however. The soft-tosser averaged just 88.1 mph on his heater in his brief big league sample of work, but his strikeout rate and otherworldly ground-ball tendencies in Triple-A make him an intriguing depth option next season.
  • Former big league righties Joe Wieland and Spencer Patton are set to return to the Yokohama DeNa BayStars of the Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, per a report from the Kyodo News. Each is signing a one-year deal to return for his second season in NPB. The 27-year-old Wieland turned in an excellent 2.98 ERA with 7.5 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 in 133 innings (21 starts) with the BayStars in 2016. He’s previously seen MLB time in parts of four seasons, totaling 52 2/3 innings between the Padres, Dodgers and Mariners. Patton, 30 in February, pitched 60 innings with a 2.75 ERA, 9.9 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in his first NPB campaign. Patton previously tossed 54 2/3 innings between the Rangers and Cubs from 2014-16.
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Tampa Bay Rays Transactions Adam Kolarek Joe Wieland Spencer Patton

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Free Agent Rumors: Holland, Bruce, LoMo, Hosmer, Morrow, Ichiro

By Steve Adams | November 9, 2017 at 4:22pm CDT

Though Greg Holland turned down his $15MM player option and will also reject his $17.4MM qualifying offer, it’s not yet a foregone conclusion that his Denver days are in the past, writes FanRag’s Jon Heyman. The Rockies “believe that Holland is the right leader” for their young pitching staff and will seek to re-sign him to a more lucrative multi-year offer, per Heyman. They will, of course, face a fair bit of competition in that pursuit. Heyman lists the Cubs and Cardinals as teams that will possibly be in the market for Holland this offseason as well.

A few more early notes on the free agent market…

  • Jay Bruce’s camp is reportedly setting its sights high and asking for a five-year deal worth $80-90MM, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported yesterday. High asking price notwithstanding, Heyman reports today in his weekly notes column that the Blue Jays, Giants, Mariners and Cardinals are four potential landing spots for Bruce in free agency. Heyman notes that Bruce should be able to comfortably land a three-year commitment that could price him out of the comfort zones of the Mets and the Indians.
  • Free agent first baseman Logan Morrison told Jon Morosi and Jim Duquette in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today that playing for his hometown Royals “would be a dream come true.” (Twitter link, with audio) Morrison fondly recalls trips to Kauffman Stadium with his father as a child and says it would be “amazing” to be able to have his grandmother come to the park and watch him play regularly in 2018. “All of that stuff would be fun,” said Morrison, “but we’ll see what happens.” The 30-year-old Morrison, meanwhile, hit .246/.353/.516 with a career-high 38 home runs in a breakout campaign with Tampa Bay this past season. Despite that huge year, he didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the Rays and therefore won’t be tied to draft pick compensation. Kansas City will have a void at first base if Eric Hosmer leaves elsewhere, though Heyman notes in the aforementioned notes column that Hosmer is still the Royals’ top priority (at least among their own impending free agents). If he signs elsewhere, the Royals would recoup a draft pick — likely at the end of the first round.
  • Right-hander Brandon Morrow also appeared on MLB Network Radio today, stating that “all things being equal,” he’d prefer to return to the Dodgers (Twitter link, with audio). Morrow specified that at age 33, he’d prefer to sign with a contending team, noting that he doesn’t necessarily care about pitching as a closer versus pitching in a setup capacity. Morrow raved about the young talent and clubhouse on the Dodgers, noting that the team is poised to be a contender for years to come — a highly appealing factor to him (and other free agents). Though perhaps we shouldn’t read too much into his comments, Morrow did note that “to be able to hopefully in that for three to four years … it’s definitely an attractive situation.” Morrow does indeed seem to have a strong case for a multi-year deal after a return to prominence in L.A. this past season. We pegged him for a three-year, $24MM contract on last week’s ranking of the game’s top 50 free agents.
  • Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that Ichiro Suzuki’s agent, John Boggs, has already reached out to the Athletics to try to pitch his client’s services. Slusser the chat between the two sides as “brief,” noting that it was based on Ichiro’s relationship with A’s manager Bob Melvin, who managed Ichiro more than a decade ago. There does not appear to be a fit, she notes, though Boggs tells Slusser that Ichiro “has the ultimate desire to play” in 2018. Heyman noted in the aforementioned notes column that the Marlins did not make an offer to the 44-year-old Ichiro before declining his $2MM option.
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Athletics Chicago Cubs Cleveland Guardians Colorado Rockies Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Dodgers Miami Marlins New York Mets San Francisco Giants Seattle Mariners St. Louis Cardinals Toronto Blue Jays Brandon Morrow Eric Hosmer Greg Holland Ichiro Suzuki Jay Bruce Logan Morrison

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MLBTR Chat Transcript: Stanton, Shaw, Pearce, Bruce, More

By Jeff Todd | November 9, 2017 at 2:05pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.

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MLBTR Chats

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Nationals Add Derek Lilliquist, Tim Bogar To Coaching Staff

By Steve Adams | November 9, 2017 at 2:01pm CDT

The Nationals announced on Thursday that they’ve hired longtime Cardinals pitching coach Derek Lilliquist to fill that same role on their staff under new manager Dave Martinez. The Nats also hired Tim Bogar, who was most recently the Mariners’ bench coach, as their new first base coach. The has also confirmed its previously reported hiring of Chip Hale (bench coach) and Kevin Long (hitting coach), and announced that Joe Dillon will be the new assistant hitting coach to Long. Bobby Henley is back with the team as the third base coach.

The 51-year-old Lilliquist was dismissed as the Cardinals’ pitching coach at season’s end. St. Louis ultimately chose to replace him with former Nats pitching coach Mike Maddux, meaning the two clubs have effectively swapped their 2016 pitching coaches. Lilliquist spent more than a decade and a half with the Cardinals organization, including the past six years as their pitching coach and the two years prior to that as the bullpen coach.

Bogar, also 51, joins the Nats after a long run in the American League West. A bench coach with the Rangers in 2014, Bogar joined the Angels’ front office as a special advisor in 2015 and jumped to the Mariners organization the following year when Jerry Dipoto (with whom he worked in Anaheim) was named GM in Seattle. With the Mariners, Bogar spent two seasons as the bench coach. He’ll bring another experienced coach to the staff as well as one that is quite familiar with analytics due to his close working relationship with Dipoto. He’s also coached on the Red Sox’ staff in the past.

The 42-year-old Dillon was the Nationals’ hitting coach with Triple-A Syracuse in 2014-15 but has spent the past two seasons as a minor league hitting coordinator in the division-rival Marlins organization.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first tweeted the news that Bogar had been hired. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post first reported Lilliquist had been hired (also via Twitter).

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Washington Nationals Derek Lilliquist Tim Bogar

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