Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.
Christian Bethancourt To Pitch In Panama Winter League
Earlier this month, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union Tribune reported that the Padres were mulling a role change for catcher Christian Bethancourt that would allow him to catch, play third base and also pitch. Today, Lin reports that Bethancourt has been up to 97 mph in while facing live hitters and is planning to pitch in the Panama Winter League as the next step in the process (Twitter links).
Bethancourt is working to develop a changeup, Lin writes, but it’s no surprise to see that his velocity is already lighting up the radar gun. As a prospect, Bethancourt was lauded for having one of the best arms in all of baseball and routinely drew an 80 grade for his arm strength (on the 20-80 scouting scale). That, of course, doesn’t mean that he’ll be able to command his fastball effectively if he does attempt to pitch in the Majors, and he’ll need at least one additional pitch in order to succeed, hence the work on the changeup.
While not all transitions of this nature are successful, Bethancourt would hardly be the first player to start his career behind the plate but end up working on the mound. Kenley Jansen is the most notable instance of that jump, but others such as Chris Hatcher, Jason Motte and Troy Percival began their careers as catchers. Of course, this type of conversion is also typically made earlier in a player’s career; Jansen’s final game as a catcher came in 2009 at the age of 22, for instance. Hatcher did catch up until the year 2010 — his age-25 season and the same age at which Bethancourt presently finds himself. That similarity notwithstanding, Hatcher caught just five games in the Majors before making a permanent move to the mound. Bethancourt, on the other hand, has already played in 153 Major League games and racked up 482 plate appearances.
There’s little in the way of recent precedent for a player being able to work as a pitcher, a catcher, an infielder and even an outfielder — the Padres put Bethancourt in the outfield 12 times this season, and he logged a combined 73 2/3 innings between the two corners — but if Bethancourt is able to pull it off with any degree of success, he’d become an enormously valuable asset for the Friars. Certainly, there’s quite a bit of work to be done on his end before that notion even approaches reality, but pitching in Panama this winter will give the club a chance to evaluate him in a game setting and determine the viability of Bethancourt serving as a mound option in the near future. Gaining experience in Panama and during Spring Training will be especially important for Bethancourt, as he’s out of minor league options and therefore can’t be sent down to further hone his skills as a pitcher in the minors.
Wilson Ramos Will Seek Four To Five Year Contract
Wilson Ramos’ free agent stock took a sizable hit the moment he suffered a torn ACL on Sept. 26, but the catcher’s agent, Wil Polidor, tells Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post that Ramos still plans to seek a four- or five-year contract in free agency.
As Castillo writes, the Nationals aren’t likely to extend a qualifying offer to Ramos on the heels of his injury, and if that’s the case, his chances at securing a multi-year pact would certainly be enhanced. While some may consider the notion of a multi-year deal following Ramos’ ACL tear unrealistic, it’s also possible that there are teams that will consider this an opportunity to acquire a premium catcher at a bargain rate. Most clubs won’t want to make any type of sizable one-year commitment with Ramos potentially sidelined for a notable portion of the 2017 campaign, but the idea of offering a backloaded multi-year deal certainly has some merit. After all, prior to his knee injury, Ramos had positioned himself to target something in the vicinity of the five-year, $80-85MM deals recently signed by Brian McCann and Russell Martin. To teams interested in adding a catcher on a long-term deal, the notion of securing Ramos on a four-year deal at a lower annual rate probably holds some appeal, even if the return on investment is minimal in year one of the pact.
Of course, any long-term deal with Ramos does come with considerable risk. This is the second time that he’s torn the ACL in his right knee, and for a catcher that is listed at 6’1″ and 255 pounds, a pair of significant knee injuries to go along with his massive frame is a genuine cause for concern. Indeed, Ramos himself has already hinted at the fact that it may be beneficial for him to sign with an American League club, implying that the availability of a DH slot could be critical for him.
Polidor also tells Castillo that Ramos is set to undergo a four-week evaluation of his knee that will conclude in the second week of November, which lines up with the General Managers’ Meetings in Phoenix, Ariz. (not to be confused with December’s Winter Meetings in Washington D.C.). Upon completion of that evaluation, he’ll have a clearer timetable from his doctors. At last check, Ramos was slated for a seven-month rehab process, which would put him on target to wrap up around mid-May. Of course, that timeline also likely represents a best-case scenario, and even if Ramos achieves that ambitious goal, he’ll still need to be eased back into catching on a regular basis.
When healthy this season, Ramos was outstanding. In 523 plate appearances, the 28-year-old batted .307/.354/.496 with a career-high 22 home runs. He also caught 37 percent of opposing base-stealers — 10 percent better than the league average — and drew strong pitch-framing marks from Baseball Prospectus. Ramos ranked fifth on the final edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings, although that list was published prior to his knee injury.
James Shields Will Not Exercise Opt-Out Clause
White Sox right-hander James Shields will not opt out of the remaining two years of his contract, tweets SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo. Much like last night’s official report on Yoenis Cespedes planning to opt out of his deal, this news was widely expected, as Shields’ considerable 2016 struggles made it extremely unlikely that he’d forgo the remaining $44MM on his contract in search of a new deal.
Shields, 35 in December, was one of the marquee free agents of the 2014-15 offseason on the heels of a strong two-year run with the Royals and a four-year platform during which he averaged 233 innings of 3.17 ERA ball to go along with 8.0 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. That lengthy stretch of excellence led to a four-year, $75MM contract originally signed with the Padres. That deal afforded him the right to opt out after his first two seasons in search of a larger contract, but Shields’ decline seemingly began the moment the 2015 season opened.
While his 2015 campaign was respectable, Shields’ numbers took a hit, as he logged a 3.91 ERA with 3.6 BB/9 and 1.5 HR/9. He still managed to clear 200 innings that year, though, and he averaged well over a strikeout per inning, giving some optimism that he could rebound in 2016. Instead, Shields struggled through the worst season of his career this year, logging a 5.85 ERA with 6.7 K/9, 4.1 BB/9 and a 40.4 percent ground-ball rate in 181 2/3 innings. Each of those numbers, including his innings total, was a career-worst for Shields dating back to his first full big league season in 2007. Further complicating matters was a fastball that averaged just 90.4 mph — a continuance in his velocity’s decline and almost certainly a factor in his stunning susceptibility to home runs (1.98 HR/9).
Shields actually got off to a solid start to the season and had a 3.06 ERA as late in the year as May 25, but he was shelled for 10 runs in 2 2/3 innings on Memorial Day. That brutal outing didn’t deter the White Sox from swinging a trade to acquire Shields and a hefty amount of cash to offset some of his contract shortly thereafter. The Sox sent righty Erik Johnson (who recently underwent Tommy John surgery) and minor leaguer Fernando Tatis Jr. to the Padres in exchange for Shields and about $31MM, which covered more than half of the $58MM he was still owed at the time of the trade.
At the time, the White Sox were in first place in the American League Central thanks to a hot start but were in need of some stable innings behind Chris Sale and Jose Quintana in the rotation. Highly touted young lefty Carlos Rodon was inconsistent early in the season, and right-hander Mat Latos was released in early June when he tanked after a strong start to the year. However, Shields was unable to function even as an innings eater in his new environs. He did have a nice seven-start stretch from late June through late July (2.11 ERA in 47 innings), but his overall work with the South Siders resulted in a 6.77 ERA in 114 1/3 innings.
The $31MM that the Padres included to facilitate the deal makes the White Sox’ remaining commitment to Shields a bit easier to stomach, as they’ll pay him $10MM in each of the next two seasons and will also be on the hook for the $2MM buyout of his 2019 option. While that’s certainly not an enviable financial obligation, it shouldn’t be entirely ruled out that Shields can rebound to at least eat up innings at the back of the Chicago rotation. The Sox aren’t paying him like the front-line pitcher he once was and don’t need him to perform as such, either, given the presence of Sale, Quintana and a seemingly improving Rodon ahead of Shields in starting mix. While it certainly seems likely that the Sox will shop Shields’ contract around this winter, it goes without saying that he’s a difficult piece to move, so the team’s best bet may simply be to hope for a better performance in 2017. If he can return to even his 2015 level of performance, he’d justify the $10MM that the Sox have committed to him in each of the next two seasons. If, however, 2017 brings more of the same, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Shields cut loose entirely.
Trey Hillman Leaving Astros To Manage Korea’s SK Wyverns
The SK Wyverns of the Korea Baseball Organization announced yesterday that they’ve hired Astros bench coach Trey Hillman as their new manager (via Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News). Hillman signed a two-year contract that’ll pay him $1.6MM, per Yoo’s report, which also notes that Hillman will become just the second foreign-born manager to serve in the KBO in the league’s 34-year history. His departure will leave the Astros looking for a new bench coach for manager A.J. Hinch, though Houston has yet to issue a comment on the news.
Hillman served as the manager of the Royals from 2008-10, compiling a 152-207 record before being ousted for Ned Yost, who remains the Kansas City skipper to this day. In addition to his time with the Royals, Hillman spent five years managing in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and has more than a decade of managerial experience in the minor leagues. He’s also served as the Rangers’ director of player development (in 2002), the Dodgers’ bench coach (2011-13) and spent two years as a scout with the Indians early in his career.
There were previously reports circulating in the Korean media that the Wyverns were eyeing a foreign manager to bring a new style of play to the club, and they were at one point rumored to have interest (link in Korean) in former White Sox and Marlins skipper Ozzie Guillen. Hillman’s experience managing and coaching in multiple countries should bring the shakeup the Wyverns were seeking, though, as the team looks to improve upon its 69-75 standing from this past season.
Of course, Hillman will be joining a team that could lose its best pitcher, left-hander Gwang-hyun Kim, to international free agency this winter. With more than nine full seasons of pro ball under his belt in the KBO, Kim can test free agency and negotiate with Major League teams without needing to go through the posting process. The Padres won exclusive negotiation rights with Kim two years ago when they bid $2MM for his services, but the two sides were unable to reach a deal. This past season, he posted a 3.80 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9, and he has turned in three straight years with a sub-4.00 ERA in the hitter-friendly KBO.
Red Sox Notes: Hazen, Sawdaye, Rodriguez, Travis
Red Sox president Sam Kennedy spoke to MassLive.com’s Jen McCaffrey about the team’s loss of executives Mike Hazen and Amiel Sawdaye, who signed on the become the new general manager and senior vice president/assistant general manager of the D-backs, respectively, last week. Kennedy acknowledged that both are big losses to the organization but doesn’t feel that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski’s leadership style had anything to do with their exit from the organization. “I think the opportunities that have come up are a real credit to the Boston Red Sox,” Kennedy told McCaffrey. “The Arizona Diamondbacks had a need at general manager and the top baseball operations job was open and they contacted us right away because they know the Red Sox have talented folks.”
Kennedy went on to discuss the decision not to name a new GM, noting that the GM title and president of baseball ops title can be interchangeable, and the most important element is to have one person accountable for baseball operations, which for the Red Sox, is Dombrowski. As McCaffrey notes, both Hazen and Sawdaye were integral parts of the Sox’ player development efforts, with Sawdaye overseeing the 2011 draft that netted Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, Blake Swihart, Matt Barnes, Travis Shaw and Henry Owens.
More on the BoSox…
- The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier revisits the Andrew Miller for Eduardo Rodriguez swap that the Red Sox made with the Orioles in July 2014. In light of Miller’s emergence as perhaps baseball’s best reliever and the fact that Rodriguez has yet to develop into a consistent rotation piece, Speier spoke to five rival talent evaluators about the deal, and each of them firmly voiced the opinion that it was still a good trade for then-GM Ben Cherington. Two used the term “no-brainer” to describe the Red Sox’ end of the deal, and each expressed confidence that Rodriguez can still be at least a third or fourth starter in the Majors. Speier also spoke to Red Sox special assistant Mark Wasinger, who in 2014 was a special assignment scout that contributed to the decision to target Rodriguez. Wasinger says improvements in Rodriguez’s command and to his breaking ball actually give him a higher ceiling now than when Boston initially acquired him. As Speier points out, the 23-year-old Rodriguez posted a 3.24 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in a vastly improved second half of the season.
- The improbable return of Kyle Schwarber to the Cubs’ World Series roster serves as motivation for his friend and former college teammate Sam Travis, writes WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. Travis, one of Boston’s more well-regarded prospects, suffered a torn ACL just a month and a half after Schwarber earlier this season, causing him to miss the majority of the year. Travis discussed with Bradford the excitement he feels for his friend as he pursues a World Series ring but also expressed confidence that he’ll be fully healthy and ready to compete for a Major League roster spot in Spring Training. Bradford points out that Travis had a huge Spring Training last year and now with David Ortiz’s retirement, an opening to split time with Hanley Ramirez at first base and DH could present itself. “That’s the stuff you dream about and the stuff you live for,” said Travis. “…It’s definitely a great opportunity coming up and I’m looking forward to take advantage of it.”
Padres Outright Jemile Weeks, Jake Smith, Jose Dominguez
The Padres have announced that three players were outrighted off the club’s 40-man roster. Infielder Jemile Weeks and righties Jake Smith and Jose Dominguez all lost their spots.
Weeks, a 29-year-old switch hitter, managed only seven hits and three walks in 57 plate appearances on the year for San Diego. He has mostly functioned as a journeyman depth option over the last several years after failing to follow up on a highly promising rookie campaign with the A’s back in 2011. Weeks elected free agency, so he’ll be back on the open market this winter.
The 26-year-old Smith received his first brief crack at the majors this year, but only took the ball four times for the Padres. He struggled badly at Double-A for the Giants, with San Diego claiming him in July. While Smith’s six appearances at the same level in the Padres organization were more successful, it wasn’t enough for the team to dedicate a MLB roster slot to him going forward.
Dominguez, like Weeks, took free agency. The 26-year-old has appeared in the majors in each of the last four years and threw a career-high 35 2/3 innings in 2016. The results weren’t there, though, as he worked to a 5.05 ERA with just twenty strikeouts against 17 walks.
Astros Void Deal With Cuban Prospect Cionel Perez
10:10pm: A medical matter of some kind gummed up the arrangement, ESPN.com’s Keith Law tweets, though the precise issue isn’t known.
7:37pm: The Astros have voided their agreement with top Cuban pitching prospect Cionel Perez, sources tell Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs (via Twitter). It’s not yet clear what caused the deal to fall apart, though it’s certainly possible that a health problem was identified.
Perez, 20, reportedly agreed in September to a $5.15MM signing bonus to go to Houston. The team had already spent beyond its international bonus pool, meaning that it had to match that amount in an overage tax. Perez was (and will still be) subject to the international signing limitations given his age and lack of experience in Cuba’s top league.
The youngster has drawn rave reviews from prospect hounds. Longenhagen rated him the seventh-best player available in this year’s July 2 signing period — second only to fellow Cuba lefty Adrian Morejon among pitchers.
While he lacks a large frame and hasn’t quite fully harnessed his command, Perez features good arm speed and athleticism, per Longenhagen’s assessment. He works into the mid-nineties with his fastball and has shown several promising secondary pitches.
It’s not known whether Houston will look to renegotiate with Perez, but the team is stuck regardless with the max penalty (two years without $300K+ international bonuses) due to its other additions. Other teams could certainly jump into the mix, though presumably Perez won’t have quite the same earning capacity now. Reports at the time of his signing suggested that the Orioles, Padres, and Reds had chased the young southpaw, though Longenhagen noted that as many as ten teams were interested to some degree.
Projected Super Two Cutoff
OCTOBER 26: The precise cutoff will be 2.131 years, Dierkes tweets. That means that most of the players noted below will fall short of qualifying, with Kiermaier representing one of the last to sneak into the arb process.
OCTOBER 10: We just published this year’s arbitration projections for all 30 teams this morning, and MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes follows that up with a report (Twitter link) that the projected Super Two cutoff for this year’s class is expected to fall between two years, 127 days of MLB service time (2.127) and two years, 131 days (2.131). Players who qualify for “Super Two” designation — that is, the top 22 percent of MLB players with between two and three years of service time — will be eligible for arbitration four times as opposed to the standard three that the rest of the league will qualify. That can have significant financial implications for both teams and players, and one needs only to look to this morning’s arbitration projections for proof of that point.
For instance, players such as David Peralta (2.120 years of service, $1.6MM projected salary), Rougned Odor (2.121, $4MM) and Dan Straily (2.126, $3.9MM) would fall a bit shy, as would Jesus Sucre ($600K) and Chase Whitley ($900K). In the case of a team like the Reds or Rangers, there’s already in the vicinity of $4MM at stake, and because future all future arbitration salaries are based on prior earnings, there’s a compounding effect at play as well. Super Two status also impacts extension talks, which the Rangers have reportedly explored with Odor’s camp. With Odor likely to fall shy of Super Two status, the Rangers needn’t offer quite as much as they would have had to were Odor slated to be arbitration-eligible four times, as his year-to-year earnings will be a bit lesser with only three trips through the arbitration process.
Meanwhile, players like Brett Oberholtzer (2.127, $1MM) and Kevin Kiermaier (2.131, $2.1MM) will see their earnings increase at least twofold in 2017 (if the lower end of the spectrum holds true, with regards to Oberholtzer). In Kiermaier’s case, he’d stand to roughly quadruple his salary by virtue of qualifying as a Super Two player.
This year’s cutoff, then, will fall pretty closely in line with the cutoffs we’ve seen over the past two years:
- 2015: 2.130
- 2014: 2.133
- 2013: 2.122
- 2012: 2.140
- 2011: 2.146
- 2010: 2.122
- 2009: 2.139
Last year’s Super Two class took players like Kole Calhoun ($3.4MM), Didi Gregorius ($2.425MM), Anthony Rendon ($2.8MM) and, most notably, Nolan Arenado ($5MM), and jump-started their earning power in significant fashion. As can be seen in the above-linked projections, the largest beneficiaries of this year’s Super Two cutoff figure to be George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Danny Salazar, Matt Shoemaker, Sam Dyson and Marcus Stroman — each of whom is projected to take home north of $3.5MM in his first of what will now be four trips through arbitration eligibility.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to view MLBTR Chat Transcript With Jason Martinez: October 26, 2016