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Twins Sign Jason Castro

By Jeff Todd | November 30, 2016 at 9:45am CDT

The Twins announced on Wednesday that they’ve signed free-agent catcher Jason Castro to a three-year, $24.5MM contract, as was initially reported last week. Minnesota, one of the rare teams that discloses financial details of signings themselves, announced that the deal is slightly front-loaded, with Castro set to earn $8.5MM in 2017 and $8MM in both 2018 and 2019. The team’s 40-man roster is now full following the signing of Castro, though they’ll presumably vacate one spot in advance of next week’s Rule 5 Draft, when they have the first overall selection.

Castro, 29, drew strong early interest in a market that featured few immediate, near-regular catching options. With Wilson Ramos carrying a second ACL tear with him into free agency, Castro’s standing was significantly improved — as was that of other top options such as Matt Wieters, Kurt Suzuki, and Nick Hundley.

Age was undoubtedly a factor that worked in Castro’s favor, but he also intrigued with his blend of left-handed power and reputation as a framing guru. Though he has never returned to his breakout 2013 levels of production at the plate, and is deficient in the on-base department, Castro has hit double-digit home runs in each of the last four seasons and has historically posted approximately league-average power (in terms of isolated slugging).

In the defensive department, Castro has consistently rated as one of the game’s best at winning borderline strikes for his pitchers (by measure of both StatCorner and Baseball Prospectus). Though he’s average in other regards behind the plate, that leaves Castro as a top-quality run preventer, at least if one accepts the more aggressive assessments of pitch framing’s capacity to impact run expectancy.

There are plenty of limitations to his game, too, of course. Most notably, Castro carries only a .215 batting average and .291 OBP over the past three seasons. There’s a lot of swing and miss to his game (32.7% strikeout rate last year), though he can take a free pass and just boosted his walk rate to a career-best 12.0% in 2016.

With proper platoon usage, though, those problems can perhaps be offset. Castro hit just .149/.237/.241 last year when facing southpaws, but posted a much more useful .231/.331/.426 slash over his 279 plate appearances against righties. Those numbers mirror his career marks, which suggest there’s little reason ever to send him out without the platoon advantage.

For the Twins, Castro represents the first major acquisition of a new-look front office led by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. With Kurt Suzuki departing this winter — bringing with him a glove that framing metrics were not fond of — that pair set out to find a replacement. Falvey and Levine evidently believe in the value of pitch framing, targeting Castro and staying on him even as the price tag moved to a fairly lofty level.

Minnesota will presumably pair Castro with John Ryan Murphy, who was picked up last winter in hopes he’d turn into a quality receiver. Though the 25-year-old scuffled badly at the plate in the majors, and hit just .236/.286/.323 in his 290 Triple-A plate appearances, he has shown more bat in the past and is considered a highly-talented framer in his own right. The club also just added Mitch Garver, another right-handed-hitting backstop, to the 40-man roster, so he’ll provide another option.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported the signing (Twitter links), and Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweeted the exact guarantee.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rockies Rumors: Holliday, Melancon, Bullpen, Reynolds

By Steve Adams | November 30, 2016 at 8:41am CDT

It’s been pretty quiet on the Rockies front lately, but GM Jeff Bridich spoke to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post on a number of offseason topic yesterday. Here are some notable takeaways from that chat and a bit more on the Rockies’ offseason…

Many Rockies fans seem to like the idea of bringing back former franchise cornerstone Matt Holliday to fill the club’s first base vacancy in 2017, but Saunders notes that Bridich downplayed the likelihood of a reunion with Holliday. Said the GM: “We have just now started looking into the reality of Matt. With the way that our outfield is situated… the outfield for Matt doesn’t make a whole lot of sense right now. So right now we are just trying to wrap our minds around whether he’s a viable option at first base.” Certainly that’s not a firm denial of any possibility, but it’s not a vote of confidence in Holliday’s first base abilities either, and Bridich’s comments seem to rule out the possibility of Holliday getting any time in left field next year. Holliday played 61 innings at first base last year — his lone experience at the position.
Similarly, a signing of Colorado native Mark Melancon seems to be on the wishlist of some fans, and Bridich did confirm to Saunders that the team has at least spoken to Melancon’s representatives. However, the GM characterized Melancon as one of “a lot of guys” whose agents have been contacted by the Rockies. Saunders recently cast some doubt on the Rockies’ ability to compete with other big-spending teams like the Dodgers, Giants, Yankees and Nationals to acquire Melancon’s services, however, and it does seem unlikely that they’d win a bidding war, based on the team’s recent history with free agents.
In addition to Melancon, Bridich confirmed to Saunders that he’s spoken to the agent for former Marlins lefty Mike Dunn. Bridich also voiced confidence in last winter’s trio of bullpen acquisitions — Jake McGee, Jason Motte and Chad Qualls — stating that he believes each can rebound from a disappointing first year with the Rox. Saunders notes that between McGee, Adam Ottavino and Carlos Estevez, the Rockies’ 2017 closer may already be on the roster.
Elsewhere, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo reports that the Rockies have expressed some level of interest in a reunion with Mark Reynolds, who performed reasonably well on a low-cost one-year deal for Colorado last year (Twitter link). Reynolds played a passable first base in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved (+4) and, to a lesser extent, Ultimate Zone Rating (-1.9). He also batted a solid .282/.356/.450 with 14 homers in 441 plate appearances, although park-adjusted metrics like OPS+ and wRC+ felt that his overall offensive output was about league-average after compensating for Coors Field. (And it’s worth noting that Reynolds raked at a .310/.383/.497 clip at home while hitting a pedestrian .255/.329/.403 on the road in 2016.)
MLB.com’s Mike Petriello has the Rockies atop his speculative list of teams that make sense as a landing spot for Chris Carter, who was designated for assignment by the Brewers yesterday. Petriello raises a point we’ve examined at MLBTR in the past, noting that Mark Trumbo would be a strong fit in Colorado were it not for the fact that signing him would require the Rockies to forfeit the top unprotected pick in next year’s draft (No. 11 overall). As Petriello further examines, the difference between Carter and Trumbo, from a statistical standpoint, hasn’t been all that great over the past few years. Each offers enormous power with plenty of strikeouts and questionable on-base percentages. The difference between the two, from my vantage point, would be that Trumbo hasn’t had the opportunity to showcase his first base skills in years, as he’s been played out of position in the outfield. Trumbo has rated as a solid defensive first baseman in the past, when given the opportunity, while Carter’s glovework has consistently graded out poorly. Then again, if there’s a sizable enough gap in terms of the required dollars (to say nothing of retaining the draft pick), the downgrade to Carter’s glove may be viewed as an acceptable price to pay.

Latest On Collective Bargaining Agreement Negotiations

By Jeff Todd | November 29, 2016 at 10:45pm CDT

10:45pm: Rosenthal tweets a quote from someone connected to the CBA talks: “There is very positive dialogue right now. More meetings to come tonight.”

NOV. 29, 7:04pm: Following Olney’s report that the competitive balance tax is the “last big hurdle” to be cleared, Rosenthal reports (Twitter links) that the owners have proposed forfeiting draft picks as the penalty for going over the luxury tax limit, though the MLBPA is sensitive “sensitive to any adjustment that would cause [the] threshold to act as [a] de facto salary cap.” MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that there’s some growing optimism about a deal being reached before the 12:01am ET deadline on Thursday.

NOV. 28, 7:07pm: Despite the apparent concession from the ownership side on the international draft, the “desired effect” of “mov[ing] talks forward” has yet to occur, Rosenthal adds on Twitter.

6:16pm: The owners won’t insist that an international draft be a part of the next CBA, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (Twitter links). There is still disagreement regarding modification to the luxury tax system, he adds; it’s not clear whether the sides are simply haggling over where to set limits or, instead, considering larger changes. Presently, teams are hit with a tax if their payroll exceeds $189MM in a given year, which functions to restrain spending on major league rosters.

5:21pm: Teams may not participate in the upcoming Winter Meetings, according to a report from ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). Club officials, he says, have been given the understanding that they won’t take part in the meetings if the ongoing collective bargaining talks don’t make “sufficient progress.”

This report represents the latest indication that there’s a real possibility of a disruption in the offseason due to the stalled CBA talks. The current CBA expires on December 1, and prior reporting suggests that the league’s owners may consider a lockout depending upon how talks unfold. It’s worth noting that Olney had previously downplayed the potential for problems.

While potential disruption to the 2017 season is still months away from being a concern, a labor stand-off would surely have a significant impact on the way in which the winter signings and trades unfold. Many of the biggest moves take place at baseball’s annual Winter Meetings, which are scheduled this year for December 5-8.

All told, there are several notable upcoming dates of importance, each of which will pressure the sides to come to an agreement. While the league and the MLB Player’s Association seem to be dug in on some matters, there’s also plenty of incentive for both to avoid a work stoppage and find common ground. That’s all the more true given that the issues reportedly still open for negotiation appear to represent a relatively small slice of the game’s growing financial pie.

Among the other topics still under discussion, the possibility of an international draft — which the league has pushed — has drawn strong pushback from the union. Indeed, several Latin American big leaguers reportedly made in-person appearances during talks today, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports in a series of tweets (all of which can be seen here). While prior reports indicated that the league side was willing to scrap the qualifying offer system in exchange for the ability to institute a draft, the union appears to be taking a hard line on that particular issue.

Mutual Interest Between Phillies, A.J. Ellis

By Steve Adams | November 29, 2016 at 8:32pm CDT

There’s mutual interest between the Phillies and veteran catcher A.J. Ellis about a reunion for the 2017 season, reports ESPN’s Jayson Stark. The Phils would like to have Ellis back and consider him both a leader and an “unofficial coach,” Stark notes.

The 35-year-old Ellis (36 in April) went from the Dodgers to the Phils alongside Tommy Bergjans and Joey Curletta in a surprising August swap that sent fellow veteran catcher Carlos Ruiz to Los Angeles. Ellis logged just 11 games with the Phils but showed well, hitting .333/.371/.500 in a tiny sample of 35 plate appearances. Those numbers brought up his overall season production a bit, but he still finished the year with an overall disappointing line of .216/.301/.298.

As it stands, the Phils project to have Cameron Rupp as their everyday catcher on the heels of a solid season. Rupp hit .252/.303/.447 with 16 homers and controlled the running game at an average rate (27 percent) while drawing slightly below-average framing marks from Baseball Prospectus. Ellis would profile as a backup to the 28-year-old Rupp and would offer a veteran source of advice for a pitching staff that, outside of right-hander Jeremy Hellickson, is quite young and lacks significant experience. None of Aaron Nola, Vince Velasquez or Jerad Eickhoff has thrown even 250 innings in the Major Leagues, and the Phils’ fifth starter will likely have even less experience. (Jake Thompson, Alec Asher, Zach Eflin and Ben Lively are among the candidates.)

Ellis would also serve as a stopgap to catching prospects Jorge Alfaro and Andrew Knapp, both of whom come with MLB upside but likely require additional minor league seasoning. If Ellis ultimately lands elsewhere, the free-agent market offers many other options for the Phils, as names like Kurt Suzuki, Alex Avila, Geovany Soto, Ryan Hanigan, Jeff Mathis and Chris Iannetta, among others, are all available this offseason.

Pirates Designate Jeff Locke For Assignment, Sign Lisalverto Bonilla

By Steve Adams | November 29, 2016 at 8:26pm CDT

8:26pm: Bonilla received a $575K guarantee on his deal, tweets MLB.com’s Adam Berry. Considering the right-hander’s lack of big league experience, the minimal guarantee isn’t much of a surprise.

5:25pm: The Pirates announced on Tuesday that they’ve designated left-hander Jeff Locke for assignment and signed right-hander Lisalverto Bonilla to a Major League contract. The 29-year-old Locke has long stood out as a non-tender candidate due to his recent struggles and his projected $4.2MM salary for the 2017 season (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).

[Related: Updated Pittsburgh Pirates Depth Chart]

Locke functioned as a serviceable back-end starter for the Pirates from 2013-15, pitching to a 3.98 ERA with 6.6 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 with a ground-ball rate north of 51 percent across 466 innings. However, Locke also averaged fewer than six innings per start in that time, and his numbers declined in 2015 before taking an even more drastic downward turn in 2016. This past year, Locke logged a lackluster 5.44 ERA with a diminished 5.2 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9 and a career-low 47.2 percent grounder rate. Right-handed opponents teed off against Locke this year as well, hitting him at a .299/.368/.508 clip in his 127 1/3 innings.

Presumably, the Pirates marketed Locke to other clubs to gauge interest in him and will continue to do so over the next week, but if no deal materializes then Locke will be released into a dismal market for free-agent starters. If it comes to that, it’s certainly plausible that Locke will end up with a 40-man roster spot and perhaps a smaller base salary than his arbitration projection represented in addition to some incentives based on innings pitched. There will be no shortage of teams on the hunt for cheap rotation arms, and Locke is just one year removed from that previously mentioned solid three-year run. (Speculatively speaking, the Marlins could make sense as a landing spot, as former Pirates special assistant/pitching guru Jim Benedict is now in the Miami front office.)

As for Bonilla, the 26-year-old once rated as one of the better prospects in the Phillies and Rangers organizations — he went from Philadelphia to Texas in the 2012 Michael Young trade — but saw his career stall in the upper levels of the Rangers’ system. He landed with the Dodgers on a minor league deal last winter and enjoyed a nice season pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, where he recorded a 3.97 ERA with a 118-to-40 K/BB ratio in 111 innings (13 starts, 18 relief appearances).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Blue Jays Showing Strong Interest In Fowler, Bruce

By Steve Adams | November 29, 2016 at 7:17pm CDT

7:16pm: Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports that the Jays are also “showing a strong interest” in Dexter Fowler. In the event that the Jays were to sign Fowler, he’d slide over to one of the currently vacant outfield corners, as Kevin Pillar stands out as one of the game’s premier defensive players and is locked in as Toronto’s center fielder.

From my vantage point, Fowler is a vastly better fit for the Blue Jays than Bruce, as he’d provide a definitive defensive upgrade over either Bautista or Saunders in one of the outfield corners and would also add both the speed and lineup balance that Atkins has stated to be offseason priorities. The additions of both Fowler and Morales would give the Jays two switch-hitters to inject some much-needed left-handedness to a lineup that currently features right-handers Russell Martin, Devon Travis, Troy Tulowitzki, Josh Donaldson and Pillar.

Signing Fowler would require the Blue Jays to forfeit the No. 24 overall pick in the 2017 draft, though the team could recoup a compensatory pick in the event that either Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion signs elsewhere. Fowler, 31 next March, batted a robust .276/.393/.447 with 13 homers and 13 stolen bases in 551 plate appearances with the Cubs while turning in the best defensive metrics of his career in center field.

4:47pm: The Blue Jays are “among the teams making a push for Jay Bruce,” reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (on Twitter). Toronto has an obvious need for corner outfield help following the departures of Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders, and Bruce figures to be a trade candidate now that Yoenis Cespedes is reportedly in agreement with the Mets on a new four-year, $110MM contract.

[Related: Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart]

Toronto has already tried to trade for Bruce once, back in Spring Training, and was believed to be on the verge of completing a three-team trade with the Angels and Reds before the medical reports on some of the minor league talent involved in the deal caused the trade to break down. Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins has stated that he’d like to add some left-handed bats to the lineup to help balance it out, and Toronto has already succeeded to some extent by signing switch-hitting DH Kendrys Morales to a three-year deal.

Bruce, 30 in April, is fresh off his best offensive season since 2013, having batted .250/.309/.506 with 33 homers between the Reds and Mets in 2016. However, he struggled greatly for much of his time with the Mets, and while he did catch fire in the season’s final two weeks, that marks the second straight season in which Bruce performed well for most of the season before fading badly in the second half. He’s also seen his defensive ratings drop dramatically in recent years — perhaps not coincidentally after undergoing knee surgery early in 2014. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at -11 this past season, while Ultimate Zone Rating was at -9.

Bruce would give the Jays a short-term bat with plenty of pop, though, and his $13MM salary for the upcoming season is one that the Jays could certainly afford. The Mets picked up a club option on Bruce after the season due to some uncertainty surrounding whether Cespedes would return, and recent reports have indicated that he’d be marketed in the event of a Cespedes re-signing.

Cubs Sign Jon Jay

By Steve Adams | November 29, 2016 at 5:50pm CDT

The Cubs are in agreement with free-agent outfielder Jon Jay on a one-year, $8MM contract, according to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (Twitter link). The team has now announced the signing as well. Jay, 32 next March, is a client of CAA Sports.

[Related: Updated Chicago Cubs Depth Chart]

Jay missed nearly two months of the 2016 season with a broken forearm that was sustained when he was hit by a pitch, but he was productive when he was healthy enough to take the field. The longtime Cardinals center fielder batted .291/.339/.389 with a pair of homers and 26 doubles in 374 trips to the plate. Jay was leading the National League with 24 doubles at the time he sustained his injury, batting .296/.345/.407 to that point in the season, but he tallied just three extra-base hits over his final 84 plate appearances upon returning from the disabled list.

With Jay in the fold, it now seems likelier than ever that Dexter Fowler’s time with the Cubs has drawn to a close. Jay joins an outfield contingent that also includes Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist, Jorge Soler, Jason Heyward, Albert Almora Jr. and Matt Szczur. He’ll bring a left-handed bat that doesn’t have a significant platoon split to manager Joe Maddon’s roster and will pair well with the highly touted but inexperienced Almora, a right-handed hitter, in center field. Both Gonzales and CSN Chicago’s Patrick Mooney suggest that Jay will be paired with Almora in center field (Twitter links). Alternatively, Almora, who has just 80 games at the Triple-A level in his career, could get some additional seasoning in Iowa if it’s deemed necessary in Spring Training.

The addition of Jay gives manager Joe Maddon even more matchup options with his day-to-day lineup, and it also gives the Chicago front office more options to pursue on the trade market this winter. Addison Russell and Javier Baez look to have cemented themselves as the Cubs’ regular middle-infield duo, which should push Zobrist to the outfield more often than not. It’s also conceivable that Schwarber will do some catching for the Cubs again in 2017, freeing up some corner outfield at-bats on those days. Nonetheless, it certainly seems plausible that the Cubs could look to deal from their outfield surplus this winter. Soler has long stood out as a possible trade candidate, and the addition of yet another outfield bat to the mix further frees up president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer to explore trade scenarios involving the former top prospect.

The exact machinations of the Cubs’ 2017 lineup can’t yet be determined, but as the 2016 team illustrated, cultivating this level of depth at the Major League level can prove vital in the event of a significant injury to a key player, as was the case when Schwarber suffered a pair of torn knee ligaments.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Marlins Rumors: Ramos, Ozuna, Fister, Phelps, Gee

By Steve Adams | November 29, 2016 at 4:36pm CDT

The Marlins have “signaled that they might be willing to trade” closer A.J. Ramos, reports ESPN’s Jayson Stark (via Twitter). On the one hand, the news isn’t all that surprising, as Ramos projects to earn a relatively hefty $6.8MM in 2017 and is only controllable for another two seasons, so Miami could market him as it looks to add more stability to its rotation. On the other hand, there have been reports that the Marlins are weighing a run at right-hander Kenley Jansen to beef up the bullpen and shorten the game for their starters due to the lack of available rotation help. Moving Ramos would go against the stated goal of deepening the relief corps with high-end talent, although perhaps the team could look to add some rotation help by moving Ramos and replace him with a free-agent arm. Ramos, 30, posted a terrific 2.81 ERA with 10.3 K/9 but also averaged 4.9 BB/9 and posted a career-worst 36.4 percent ground-ball rate in 64 innings with Miami last year.

A few more notes on the Fish…

There’s been “little to no dialogue” between the Marlins and other teams about outfielder Marcell Ozuna, reports MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. Many clubs are taking a patient approach to see how the pitching market develops before they determine whether they can part with an arm in a trade to address the outfield, Frisaro writes, and there isn’t much internal traction regarding the idea of dealing Ozuna. With Edinson Volquez on board, the Marlins may look further to the free-agent market rather than seeking trades to bolster the staff.
Also from Frisaro, the Marlins have had internal discussions regarding Doug Fister, C.J. Wilson and Jon Niese. Previous reports have linked Miami to the latter two names, but this appears to be the first definitive link between the Marlins and Fister, who posted a 4.64 ERA with 5.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a 45.3 percent ground-ball rate in 180 1/3 innings for the Astros last season. That marked a second consecutive weak showing for Fister, who was previously one of the more underrated starters in baseball while pitching for the Tigers. Fister’s strikeout rate has plummeted in recent years, though, and while he’s never thrown hard, his once 89-90 mph fastball is now more in the 86-87 mph range. David Phelps is also a candidate to step into the rotation, but the Marlins prefer that he remains at the back of the bullpen, Frisaro adds.
Also of note from Frisaro’s piece on the team’s free-agent hunt, he lists Jansen and Aroldis Chapman as assets that are probably too expensive for the Marlins but lists right-handers Mark Melancon and Daniel Hudson as more affordable options that could be realistic targets.
Meanwhile, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports that the Marlins have reached out to the representatives for right-hander Dillon Gee, who became a free agent when he was cut loose by the Royals after the season. Gee is no stranger to the NL East, having spent the bulk of his career with the Mets, and he delivered 125 innings with a 4.68 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 41 percent ground-ball rate for Kansas City last year. However, Gee’s season came to an end when he required surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome. He’s expected to be ready for Spring Training, though, and would give the Marlins a veteran arm who could function in a swingman capacity, making some starts as needed but also providing a relief arm capable of throwing multiple innings.

Olney’s Latest: Hamilton, Napoli, Sale, CBA

By Steve Adams | November 29, 2016 at 4:01pm CDT

The Reds are listening to offers on all of their players, including Billy Hamilton, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider subscription required and recommended). There is, of course, a distinction to be made between entertaining offers and shopping Hamilton around, but Cincinnati’s openness should pique the interest of a number of clubs looking for a center field upgrade. Hamilton had a breakout year in 2016, slashing .260/.321/.343 with three homers while delivering his third consecutive season with 55-plus stolen bases. Those rate stats are far from elite, but Hamilton is an elite defensive center fielder and far and away the best baserunner in Major League Baseball, so progressing from a sub-.300 OBP to even a roughly league-average mark is significant. Hamilton swiped 58 bags in just 460 plate appearances last year and was caught a mere eight times. He also drew a +15 mark from Defensive Runs Saved and +13 from Ultimate Zone Rating in just 119 games.

As Olney notes, Hamilton is controllable for three more years and may not have much control left by the time the Reds are good again. There’s certainly some logic behind trading him, though the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Zach Buchanan hears they’d need to be “really, really motivated by an offer” to part with Hamilton (Twitter link).

Latest On Market For Rich Hill

By Jeff Todd | November 29, 2016 at 2:55pm CDT

There are four teams heavily pursuing free-agent lefty Rich Hill, according to ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden. The Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers, and Astros are all said to be chasing down a pitcher who is arguably the best available on this year’s market. Also joining pursuit are the Red Sox and Orioles, per the report, though it seems their interest is less robust.

We’ve heard plenty of chatter about the possibility of the Yankees making a move on Hill, and the Dodgers likewise have long been said to have interest in a reunion. The AL West-rival Rangers and Astros, though, have not been tied as closely — in part, perhaps, since both have already signed starters — though MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes listed both as plausible suitors in his top-fifty free agent list. Meanwhile, the two AL East teams mentioned seemingly have fully stocked rotations, though surely both could stand to upgrade in the right situation.

Hill is coming off of an outstanding age-36 season. While he was limited to 110 1/3 innings, owing to a blister, the veteran southpaw recorded a sensational 2.12 ERA with 10.5 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. While there was justifiable skepticism last winter, following Hill’s four excellent, late-season starts in the prior campaign, he now seems worth pursuing as a possible top-of-the-rotation arm.

There’s plenty of reason to tamper contract expectations, of course. Even if one accepts that Hill can continue to mow down opposing hitters, he’s not young and comes with a long history of injuries. And it’s certainly possible that he’s in line for some regression in the earned-run department after limiting opposing hitters to just 0.33 home runs per nine innings a season ago.

Though he essentially uses just two pitches, Hill has baffled the opposition with a heater that barely averages 90 mph and a breaking ball that he can manipulate at will. And the recent results aren’t just a batted-ball-fortune fluke; he was credited with a 2.39 FIP, 3.36 xFIP, and 3.29 SIERA in 2016. With no other true impact starters available on the open market, and despite the obvious questions, MLBTR predicts that he’ll command a $50MM guarantee over three seasons.

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