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With some major core players eligible for free agency, the Blue Jays may need some significant retooling to make another postseason trip.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Troy Tulowitzki, SS: $74MM through 2020 ($15MM club option for 2021, $4MM buyout)
- Russell Martin, C: $60MM through 2019
- J.A. Happ, SP: $26MM through 2018
- Josh Donaldson, 3B: $17MM through 2017
- Melvin Upton Jr. OF: $16.45MM through 2017 ($12.05MM covered by the Padres as per the terms of the July 2016 trade)
- Marco Estrada, SP: $14MM through 2017
- Francisco Liriano, SP: $13MM through 2017
- Justin Smoak, 1B: $8.25MM through 2018 ($6MM club option for 2019, $250K buyout)
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)
- Josh Thole (5.165) – $900K
- Darwin Barney (5.085) – $1.6MM
- Aaron Loup (4.040) – $1.2MM
- Ezequiel Carrera (3.039) – $1.2MM
- Marcus Stroman (2.148) – $3.5MM
- Non-tender candidates: Thole
Contract Options
- Jason Grilli, RP: $3MM club option (exercised)
Free Agents
- Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Michael Saunders, Brett Cecil, R.A. Dickey, Joaquin Benoit, Scott Feldman, Dioner Navarro, Gavin Floyd
Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart; Blue Jays Payroll Overview
Since the start of the 2010 season, Jose Bautista has hit more home runs (249) than any player in baseball, while Edwin Encarnacion (231) ranks third on that same list. Having both of these prolific bats together on (what turned out to be) very team-friendly contracts has been one of the key factors behind the Blue Jays’ recent success, but this winter, it seems very likely that the Bautista/Encarnacion era will come to an end.
Naturally, the Jays’ decisions on the two cornerstone players will shape the rest of their offseason decision-making. Re-signing both seems very improbable, as the Jays would be committing millions to two players in their mid-to-late-30s when the team already has a pretty expensive and aging roster. Re-signing one of the two is a possibility, and initial signs are that Encarnacion may be the prime target. In his case, he said he was “really disappointed” by his Spring Training extension talks with the club, as the Jays reportedly only offered him two guaranteed years with multiple vesting options for further seasons. That offer seemed strangely low at the time and it looks downright meager compared to what Encarnacion will earn in the wake of a 42-homer, .263/.357/.529 season. Though Encarnacion will be 34 on Opening Day, he has put himself in line to easily land a four-year guarantee with a $20MM+ average annual value, and perhaps one enterprising team could even go as high as five years.
Bautista, on the other hand, will require a much lower price tag but also carries far more question marks. Bautista hit .234/.366/.452 with 22 homers over 517 PA; good numbers for most players, but a big step backwards from his usual offensive output. While he was still productive at the plate, his baserunning (as per Fangraphs’ BsR metric) and defense (-9.3 UZR/150, -8 Defensive Runs Saved) nosedived, leaving him with an overall contribution of just 1.4 fWAR. Injuries likely played a part, as Bautista had two lengthy DL stints due to a sprained knee and turf toe. The 36-yeard-old has now suffered through three injury-shortened seasons in the last five years, and between his health history, age and declining defense, his future may lie as a DH/first baseman rather than as a regular right fielder.
GM Ross Atkins told reporters that the Jays had plans to speak to both players in the exclusive five-day prior to free agency (which expired about 13 hours ago), and both Encarnacion and Bautista were issued qualifying offers. At the very least, the Blue Jays will receive first-round compensatory draft picks should Encarnacion and Bautista sign elsewhere, assuming they turn the QOs down. (Encarnacion certainly will, and Bautista reportedly will do so as well, though there’s at least a minor chance he could opt for the one-year, $17.2MM offer and shoot for a healthier platform season in 2017.)
Left fielder Michael Saunders did not receive a qualifying offer, as Toronto’s other big position player free agent had a very rough second half of the season that overshadowed his All-Star caliber first half. Retaining Saunders would give the Jays a much-needed left-handed bat to help balance out a very right-handed lineup. If Encarnacion and Bautista both departed, Saunders could see more time at DH, which would improve the Jays’ outfield defense and also perhaps help Saunders stay fresh and productive throughout the entire year.
If all three hitters left in free agency, the Blue Jays would lose some serious pop but would also gain the opportunity to remake a somewhat one-dimensional lineup. While Toronto finished ninth among all teams in runs scored in 2016, the club was rather an all-or-nothing offense, prone to extended cold streaks (such as down the stretch in September) when not hitting home runs. The Jays were also a bottom-10 team in both contact rate and stolen bases, while finishing eighth in strikeouts and hitting into a league-high 153 double plays.