Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Mets Increasingly Optimistic Of Re-Signing Yoenis Cespedes
There’s “optimism growing” within the Mets organization that the team will be able to reach agreement on a new deal with star free agent Yoenis Cespedes, Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. It isn’t precisely clear what has led the team to that interpretation, but evidently there’s some sign of movement on the slugger’s market.
New York is reportedly hoping to avoid guaranteeing five years to Cespedes, even as it has seemed likely he’ll do just that. (Indeed, there’s at least a theoretical case that he could command a sixth season.) Both sides are said to be hopeful of resolving things one way or another by the conclusion of the Winter Meetings, which are scheduled to take place next week.
Coming into the winter, there was no question that both player and team would have interest in a reunion. But there were perhaps two major questions in Cespedes’s free agent case: first, whether significant interest would develop from one or more new organizations; and second, to what extent the Mets would be willing to beat the market to re-sign him. Last offseason, New York was able to land the star on a three-year, $75MM deal by dangling an opt-out, though now he’s the consensus best-player-available and has banked another year of superstar-level production.
It’s hard to guess at what could be driving the Mets’ organization’s apparent belief that it could be moving into position on Cespedes. His market has been relatively quiet on the rumor mill, but that may not reflect the action behind the scenes. Also, continued uncertainty in the CBA could have an impact on what other organizations will be willing to do. Whether not fear of a work stoppage could motivate Cespedes and his reps to work something out with the Mets isn’t know, but perhaps can’t be ruled out. All told, it’s certainly plausible that the sides have moved toward common ground after performing their own internal assessments.
Diamondbacks Sell Contract Of Kyle Jensen To Japanese Club
The Diamondbacks have sold the contract of first baseman/outfielder Kyle Jensen to Japan’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, per a club announcement. Robert Murray of Fan Rag reported the move.
Jensen was recently designated for assignment by Arizona. The 28-year-old received his first crack at the majors in 2016 after joining the Snakes on a minor league pact last winter, though he didn’t receive much playing time. He spent most of his time at Triple-A, as he has for the past several seasons.
There is some reason for optimism for the former 12th-round pick, who has spent each of the last three seasons with a different organization. Over 555 plate appearances at the highest level of the minors, he posted a .289/.350/.546 slash and added thirty home runs — marking the sixth-straight minor league campaign in which he has hit at least twenty long balls.
Mets Have “Some Interest” In J.D. Martinez
The Mets have “some interest” in Tigers outfielder J.D. Martinez, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. Martinez would reportedly be viewed as a “fall-back option” in the event that New York isn’t able to bring back free agent Yoenis Cespedes.
Martinez, 29, could be on the block as Detroit seeks to streamline its roster. Though he’s young and carries an outstanding recent track record of offensive production, he’s also entering his final season of team control. The Tigers say they aren’t interested in pursuing a new contract, possibly making Martinez a nice trade chip.
Certainly, it’s far from clear that the Mets will be willing to meet what’s likely to be a fairly lofty asking price for Martinez — assuming, of course, that Cespedes lands elsewhere (which is no sure thing). Though the organization would surely like the idea of avoiding a lengthy entanglement while maintaining the same kind of middle-of-the-order threat, it has already dealt away several important pieces of the farm for short-term gains in recent years. (That includes, of course, the swap that originally brought Cespedes to New York, which came at the cost of talented righty Michael Fulmer.)
What’s most interesting about the report, perhaps, is that it reinforces the idea that New York will look hard for a right-handed-hitting power bat in the outfield even if Cespedes does not return. That was far from clear last summer, when the Mets traded for the left-handed-hitting Jay Bruce, who joins Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto as southpaw-swinging corner outfield options. While Juan Lagares remains on hand as a righty bat who can play center, it seems the organization sees it as a rather high priority to add some pop from that side of the plate.
To be sure, that’s not exactly a new concept: the Mets have been linked previously to players such as Jose Bautista as theoretical back-up plans to Cespedes. Heyman also notes that there are other theoretical trade candidates who could hold appeal, including Ryan Braun and Andrew McCutchen. The seriousness of the pursuit of a Cespedes alternative could be a critical component of the offseason for GM Sandy Alderson, who could also look to deal one of the lefties (Bruce, in particular, has been tied to trade chatter) to clear roster and payroll space.
Pirates “Open” To Trading Josh Harrison
The Pirates have attempted to swing a trade involving infielder Josh Harrison and remain open to doing so, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Pittsburgh had hoped to deal Harrison and re-sign Sean Rodriguez, per the report, though was unable to complete such an arrangement before Rodriguez joined the Braves.
Harrison, 29, has seen his production at the plate tail off following a breakout 2014 campaign. He’s guaranteed another $19MM on the extension he signed the following winter, which covers two more seasons as well as buyouts on a pair of successive club options for 2019 and 2020.
The Bucs doubled down on Harrison after he put up 550 plate appearances of .315/.347/.490 hitting, with 13 home runs and 18 steals, in that 2014 season. He followed that up with league-average production in the following year, but fell further in 2016. Over his 522 trips to the plate, Harrison managed only a .283/.311/.388 slash with four homers.
Harrison’s bat is based largely on contact, as he rarely strikes out (14.3% for his career) or walks (3.5%). While his speed continues to allow him to generate a fairly elevated batting average on balls in play, Harrison slumped to 27.7% hard contact and a 19.5% line-drive rate in 2016, both of which fell shy of his output in the prior two years.
There is other value to be found in the infielder. He swiped 19 bags in his most recent season and has continued to rate as a quality overall baserunner. And Harrison’s glove rates well at both second and third. He’s also capable of playing the corner outfield or, in a pinch, shortstop.
The question for teams that might consider a move Harrison is whether they see any possibility that he’ll return to the power output he showed three years back. His .175 isolated slugging mark has dipped to just over .100 in the ensuing years, which rates well below average and leaves him as more of a quality utility infielder than an everyday option. Given Harrison’s inability to spend regular time at short, it’s somewhat unclear whether another organization would be willing to take over the fairly expensive contract.
For Pittsburgh, Harrison remains penciled in at second base as things stand. While David Freese remains available as an option at third after signing an extension in August, Rosenthal says that Jung Ho Kang would not be moved from the hot corner to second in the event that Harrison is dealt. Instead, it seems, the organization would consider youngsters Alen Hanson and Adam Frazier if they find a trade partner. Alternatively, the Pirates could pursue another external addition.
Brewers Sign Eric Thames, Designate Chris Carter
The Brewers have announced a three-year deal with free-agent first baseman Eric Thames, who will reportedly receive a $16MM guarantee. His contract also comes with a $7.5MM option for the 2020 campaign.
Thames will receive $4MM for the 2017 season, followed by $5MM and $6MM salaries. He’s also promised a $1MM buyout on the option and can pick up $500K annually based upon plate appearances. The contract further provides that Thames must give consent to be optioned or outrighted to the minors. And he is entitled to a small assignment bonus in the event of a trade. Further, Milwaukee won’t be allowed to tender Thames at the conclusion of the deal even though he’ll remain eligible for arbitration.
As had been reported last night, the organization will clear a role and a spot by designating Chris Carter for assignment. Though Carter mashed 41 home runs last year, he’s a one-dimensional slugger and wasn’t going to be cheap. MLBTR projected him to earn $8.1MM through arbitration, and McCalvy suggests the team expected to pay even more, perhaps reflecting the possibility that he’d try to argue for his 2015 arb salary as a starting point for a raise.
Given that Carter was designated, it’s still possible he could be dealt. As MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets, the club intends to explore a possible deal in advance of the non-tender deadline, which is on Friday. Milwaukee obviously won’t have much leverage, and probably would have struck a deal already if there was an enticing offer to be found, but it’s still possible to imagine something coming together.
[RELATED: Updated Brewers Depth Chart]
Thames becomes the latest player to move from Korea to the majors, though in his case it’s a return. When last we saw the left-handed hitter in the majors, he was a young outfielder still trying to find his way. Now, he’s a 30-year-old first baseman who established himself as a monster power threat in the hitter-friendly KBO.
Over his three seasons with the NC Dinos, Thames compiled a ridiculous .348/.450/.720 batting line and swatted 124 home runs and 64 stolen bases. While those Ruthian numbers aren’t exactly unheard of in Korea, they do represent top-level production in a competitive league. It’s worth noting, too, that Thames fared rather well in terms of plate discipline, racking up 235 walks to go with his 293 strikeouts.
Just what Thames will deliver upon his return is anyone’s guess. Other KBO-to-majors hitters have been highly productive, such as Jung Ho Kang and Hyun Soo Kim. Things haven’t gone as well for Byung Ho Park, though he has shown that he has legitimate power and is only one season into his contract.
Unlike those players, Thames already has a track record in North American ball. He struck out 175 times in 684 major league plate appearances, all coming in 2011 and 2012, but was hardly unable to compete. Thames carried a .250/.296/.431 batting line and hit 21 home runs in his 181-game MLB run. He has also spent quite a bit of time at Triple-A, racking up a .312/.389/.506 slash and 23 dingers over 870 trips to the plate at the highest level of the minors.
It doesn’t hurt that Thames has a history as a corner outfielder. Milwaukee GM David Stearns noted that the added flexibility was seen as a benefit, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel tweets. Just what kind of glove he’d bring in the outfield grass isn’t known, but Thames did play there previously and still evidently can run given his stolen base tallies.
All told, it’s an interesting gambit for the Brewers, who reportedly scouted Thames using only video of his action in Korea. He matched Carter’s long ball output there, but doing so against major league pitching will be quite another matter. Of course, Thames also holds out the promise of delivering value in other areas, and he’ll make quite a bit less annually than Carter stood to earn.
MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy reported the signing (Twitter links). Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links), ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter links), and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (in a tweet) reported on the financial and other contract details.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Latest On Dodgers’ Debt Situation
The Dodgers are engaged in an ongoing process with Major League Baseball regarding the team’s compliance with the league’s debt-service rule, according to reports from Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times and ESPN.com’s Doug Padilla. The organization is said to be carrying hundreds of millions in debt as it nears the conclusion of a five-year waiver from those debt requirements, which went into effect when the current ownership group purchased the club.
Baseball teams are subject to a rule that “limits debt to no more than 12 times annual revenue, minus expenses,” writes Shaikin. In the case of the Dodgers, the large amount of debt is offset by a massive television rights agreement – reportedly worth $8.35B over 25 years – along with the ticket sales from league-best attendance (among other sources of revenue). Of course, the club has also committed more in payroll ($1.181B, including $112MM in luxury-tax payments) since the sale than any other organization.
While the Los Angeles Times report suggests that there is a league mandate for the Dodgers to reduce their debt ratio, that’s not the team’s interpretation. “There is no mandate,” president/CEO Stan Kasten tells Padilla. “There is no problem with our debt and we continue to work on the same program we have been working on from the day we walked in here in 2012.”
More broadly, Kasten emphasized, “business for the Dodgers is very strong and very healthy.” While the team has focused more on obtaining and developing young talent than on continuing to take on huge salary commitments, top organizational figures say that’s all part of the original plan rather than a reflection of some mounting debt problem.
From the league’s perspective, it seems, Los Angeles remains on track to comply with all applicable standards. Teams in violation of the debt-service rule can be subject to discipline, with a variety of measures at the disposal of commissioner Rob Manfred, which can even include the requirement of approval of expenditures or suspensions to ownership and/or team executives. But Manfred suggests that he does not see any likelihood of formal action being taken by the league – or even any significant change in operating philosophy.
“I think the Dodgers will be in a position that they can comply with our expectations in terms of the debt service rule, without any dramatic alteration in the kind of product they have been putting on the field,” he told Shaikin. Manfred added that “the Dodgers have always had a plan that would give them financial stability over the long haul.”
The commissioner also made clear that the organization would not be forced to trim payroll to ease its debt burden, as Padilla reports. Under the league rule on debt servicing, he said, “non-compliant clubs are asked to submit a plan demonstrating a path to compliance,” explaining that “clubs are evaluated on an ongoing basis relative to that plan.” Manfred further emphasized that “there are various ways to achieve compliance and there is no mandate to cut payroll.”
All told, it does not appear as if there is any particular reason to believe that the Dodgers’ immediate offseason decisions will be impacted by the debt issue – at least, that is, beyond the prior planning that has already been undertaken. But it remains to be seen just how much the organization will be willing to spend this winter with several holes to fill and notable free agents including closer Kenley Jansen, third baseman Justin Turner, lefty Rich Hill, and second baseman Chase Utley.
Los Angeles does have a rather substantial slate of current payroll commitments, including several to players who are no longer on the 40-man roster. The team concluded 2016 with a payroll in the $258MM neighborhood and already has upward of $193MM in commitments for next year, Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource estimates. They’re on track to exceed the luxury-tax threshold again in 2017, then, even though it could increase from $189MM in the current CBA to around $200MM in the next agreement. There’s also already over $130MM committed to 2018 payroll, though the standing obligations draw down rather rapidly from that point forward.
Despite their debt situation, the Dodgers have made many sizable commitments on the international market and have not been dissuaded from some notable, mid-range free agent signings. We’ll soon learn how much appetite the organization has for similar, or even larger, agreements in advance of the 2017 season. The Dodgers are reportedly interested in pursuing reunions with all of their free agents, and have also been tied to prominent open-market players such as closer Aroldis Chapman. The trade market may provide an alternative; Los Angeles has recently expressed interest in reasonably priced standouts like J.D. Martinez, Ian Kinsler, Brian Dozier and Logan Forsythe — all of whom are under contract for two or fewer years — though acquiring any of them would presumably weaken their farm system.
A prior version of this post mistakenly suggested that the Dodgers would be forced to cut payroll in order to comply with MLB’s debt-service rule.
Angels Sign Ryan LaMarre, Designate Gregorio Petit
The Angels have announced the signing of a one-year, major league deal with outfielder Ryan LaMarre. He’ll receive $50K above whatever the league minimum salary ends up being, per SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter). The club designated infielder Gregorio Petit for assignment to clear roster space.
[RELATED: Updated Angels Depth Chart]
LaMarre, who just turned 28, saw brief action in each of the last two seasons at the major league level with the Reds and Red Sox. He quietly produced his best season as a pro at Triple-A last year with the Boston organization, batting .303/.369/.445 over 358 plate appearances.
The former second-round pick, a right-handed hitter, also swatted ten home runs and swiped 17 bases for Pawtucket. He’s capable of playing center field, increasing his function as a possible fourth outfielder.
Petit, meanwhile, saw his most extensive major league action last year with the Halos. Over 223 plate appearances, he slashed .245/.299/.348. Soon to turn 32, the journeyman has spent time at second, short, third, and (briefly) the corner outfield in parts of five MLB campaigns.
Brewers To Non-Tender Chris Carter
The Brewers have decided to non-tender power-hitting first baseman Chris Carter, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). MLBTR had projected Carter to earn $8.1MM in arbitration.
Carter, 29, signed on with Milwaukee after he was non-tendered last winter by the Astros, agreeing to a one-year, $2.5MM pact. He rewarded the club with a .222/.321/.499 batting line and a league-leading 41 home runs over 644 plate appearances.
It’s certainly somewhat unusual to see a forty-homer bat set loose despite ongoing control. In fact, Carter has another year of arb eligibility beyond 2017. But it isn’t as if his prodigious power output came as a surprise; he swatted 37 dingers back in 2014.
The trouble with Carter is that he has never managed to reach base consistently. He also led the National League with 206 strikeouts last year. Then there’s the fact that he’s rather limited in the field. Carter’s days in the outfield are probably numbered, and he drew negative metrics last year at first.
MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth recently broke down the arbitration decision facing the Brewers, explaining that it was a tougher call than it seemed at first glance. While more than three quarters of MLBTR readers who participated in a poll felt Carter should be tendered, that wasn’t the course pursued by Milwaukee GM David Stearns.
All signs point to a move back to the American League, where Carter can spend time at DH while perhaps occasionally stepping in at first. Beyond the pure home run output, he has managed to maintain a lifetime 112 OPS+, even if it comes with a cringe-worthy batting average (.218) and OBP (.314). Carter owns a career 33.1% strikeout rate, and that probably won’t change, though he has managed to draw walks at a solid 11.6% clip. And it’s worth noting, too, that he has not traditionally carried very pronounced platoon splits.
[RELATED: Brewers Depth Chart]
Milwaukee, it seems, decided against committing that much cash to a one-dimensional player who would’ve been forced onto the field. The team isn’t exactly bristling with replacement options. The Brewers just claimed and then designated Adam Walker — a younger, cheaper player who carries Carter’s general profile at the plate — and could perhaps give him a chance if he clears waivers. Prospect Jacob Nottingham could also get a look, though perhaps the odds are that the rebuilding club will end up looking outside the organization to fill its needs at first base for 2017.
The Brewers surely would’ve preferred to find a trade partner for Carter, but his salary was likely a deterrent. And the open market is full of power options this winter, with players like Mike Napoli, Brandon Moss, Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday, Pedro Alvarez, and Steve Pearce all expected to be available for one or two-year commitments.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Braves Acquire Alex Jackson
The Braves have struck a deal to acquire outfield prospect Alex Jackson from the Mariners, per club announcements. Righties Rob Whalen and Max Povse are headed to Seattle in the deal, in which Atlanta will also pick up a player to be named later. The Mariners designated righty Ryan Weber to create 40-man roster space.
Jackson, the sixth overall pick in the 2014 draft, is still just twenty years old and has only played two professional seasons. But GM Jerry Dipoto — who wasn’t at the helm in Seattle when Jackson was selected — evidently didn’t see enough evidence of his future potential.
Despite a tough 2015 debut year, Jackson received some top-100 leaguewide billing entering the 2016 campaign. He did show some improvement at the Class A level, but ended with a relatively meager .243/.332/.408 batting line and 11 home runs over 381 plate appearances. Jackson also went down on strikeouts 103 times while drawing 34 walks.
[RELATED: Updated Braves & Mariners Depth Charts]
Whalen, 22, received his first five major league starts last year, allowing a 18 earned runs and a dozen walks but also limiting opposing batters to twenty base hits while compiling a healthy 25 strikeouts. He was much better in his first attempt at the upper minors, too. Across 120 total frames split between Double-A and Triple-A, Whalen compiled a 2.40 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. The righty originally came to Atlanta from the Mets along with John Gant in the 2015 deadline deal for Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe.
Though Whalen figures to play a role in Seattle’s pitching depth, Povse may be the real get here for the M’s. The 23-year-old is a consistent strike thrower despite his 6’8 frame. Working last year at the High-A and Double-A levels, he ran up 158 innings of 3.36 ERA pitching with 7.9 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9 — though his strikeout numbers drooped following his promotion.
In adding two players to their roster, the Mariners had to clear a spot. That will mean exposing the 26-year-old Weber to waivers. Actually, Weber landed in Seattle from Atlanta earlier this month through a waiver claim after providing 64 2/3 innings to the Braves over the last two seasons. Though he’s also a low-walk hurler, having averaged just 1.5 free passes per nine in the majors, he has managed only a 5.15 ERA in the bigs while logging 5.8 K/9. Weber has posted sub-3.00 earned run averages in the upper minors in each of the past two seasons, while working mostly in a relief capacity.