MLB Trade Rumors

Earlier Monday, we took a look at position players whose contracts include club options for 2019. We’ll do the same here with starting pitchers…

Cole Hamels, LHP, Cubs – $20MM option, $6MM buyout (Texas would pay the buyout): Earlier in the season, when Hamels was toiling as a home run-prone Rangers starter, it seemed like a lock that he’d reach free agency over the winter. But since the Cubs acquired the 34-year-old prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, he has returned to his old ways as a front-end starter, as Steve Adams noted last week. Hamels hasn’t allowed more than one run in any of his six starts with Chicago, and has yielded a mere three ER across 39 innings. He has also notched nearly a strikeout per frame (38) while walking only 11 hitters during his brief Cubs tenure. Further, the HR issues that plagued Hamels in Texas have vanished, as he hasn’t surrendered a single long ball as a Cub. It seems Hamels is pitching his way into the Cubs’ 2019 plans, barring a meltdown over the next several weeks.

James Shields, RHP, White Sox – $16MM option, $2MM buyout: Once among the game’s most celebrated workhorses, Shields’ career went in the tank from 2016-17. But the 36-year-old has bounced back to a degree this season, having pitched to a 4.39 ERA/4.78 FIP through 182 1/3 innings. That type of production isn’t worth $16MM, though, so the White Sox are certain to decline Shields’ option and potentially end a disappointing tenure on the South Side. Not that White Sox fans need to hear about it again, but the team traded now-standout infield prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. to the Padres for Shields in June 2016. Even though the loss of Tatis has become a sickening reality for Chicago, it’s fair to note he wasn’t a ballyhooed prospect when it dealt him.

Chris Sale, LHP, Red Sox – $15MM option, $1MM buyout: Sale’s option will increase to $16MM if he wins this year’s AL Cy Young Award, which is a real possibility. That should tell you all you need to know about where he’ll pitch in 2019.

Ervin Santana, RHP, Twins – $14MM option, no buyout: A finger injury has wrecked Santana’s season, limiting him to 24 2/3 dreadful innings of 8.03 ERA/7.94 FIP ball, and kept him out since Aug. 16. Worsening matters, Santana expressed frustration toward the Twins’ front office last month after the out-of-contention club traded multiple veterans. Those comments aside, the Twins would have been inclined to pick up Santana’s option had he continued to post his typically above-average production this season. Now, given the way Santana’s 2018 has gone, Minnesota would be hard pressed to keep the soon-to-be 36-year-old at such a lofty price.

Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants – $12MM option, $1.5MM buyout: Like Boston’s situation with Sale, this is a no-brainer for the Giants. They’ll absolutely exercise Bumgarner’s option.

Matt Moore, LHP, Rangers – $10MM option, $750K buyout: The 29-year-old Moore has recorded a woeful 7.27 ERA/5.24 FIP in 90 1/3 innings (30 appearances, 12 starts), further distancing himself from his days as an elite prospect with the Rays. Texas will buy him out after the season.

Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Indians – $9MM option, $663K buyout: This is an easy yes for Cleveland, which has reaped the benefits of the underrated Carrasco’s stellar work since his 2014 breakout.

Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers – $7.5MM option, $750K buyout: At times, Perez has been a passable innings eater, and had that continued this year, the Rangers would’ve exercised his option. Instead, injuries have helped hold the 27-year-old to 70 2/3 innings and a 6.75 ERA/5.97 FIP. Thanks to Perez’s horrific output this season, the Rangers demoted him to the bullpen last week and informed him that they’re not planning to pick up his option.

Doug Fister, RHP, Rangers – $4.5MM option, $500K buyout: Fister used to be one of the game’s most effective starters, but he’s now an unspectacular back-end type, and his future with the Rangers is in question heading into 2019. Things working in the soon-to-be 35-year-old’s favor with respect to his option: 1.) It’s relatively inexpensive. 2.) The Rangers are starved for pitching, especially with Moore and Perez on the outs. Things working against the soft-tossing Fister: 1.) He was subpar this year in 66 innings and 12 starts, registering a 4.50 ERA with a 5.25 FIP. 2.) His season ended in mid-June because of a knee strain. This doesn’t look like a slam-dunk decision either way, particularly considering Texas is so hard up for starters.

Jordan Lyles, RHP, Brewers – $3.5MM option, $250K buyout: Lyles has spent the majority of his career in teams’ rotations, having piled up 115 starts in 212 appearances, but has primarily been a reliever since 2016. While the 27-year-old did good work out of the Padres’ bullpen earlier this year, his season has gone off a cliff since the Brewers added him via waivers last month. Lyles has only thrown 9 1/3 innings as a Brewer, but with six earned runs and eight walks given up, he has damaged his already shaky chances of the team exercising his option. It seems likely he’ll be a free agent in the offseason.

Wily Peralta, RHP, Royals – $3MM option, $25K buyout: As with Lyles, we’ll lump Peralta in with the starters, even though he may not belong with them. While Peralta has amassed 120 starts in 156 major league appearances, he has functioned solely as a reliever this year. Now the rebuilding Royals’ closer, the hard-throwing 29-year-old has saved all eight of his opportunities and logged a 3.57 ERA/4.17 FIP with 9.53 K/9 and a 45.1 percent groundball rate over 22 2/2 frames (24 appearances). Peralta’s walk rate is ugly (5.56 per nine), however, and both his batting average on balls in play against (.250) and Statcast data (.293 wOBA allowed vs. 345 xwOBA) suggest he has been fortunate to limit earned runs at such a quality rate. As of now, though, Peralta appears to be a decent bet to return to the Royals for $3MM next year, as the Kansas City Star’s Sam Mellinger wrote over the weekend.

With both trade deadlines having passed and the regular season nearing an end, most major league teams are now preparing themselves for the upcoming winter. Once the offseason begins, eight teams will have decisions to make on position players whose contracts include club options for 2019. Let’s assess where those players stand with just four weeks left until the playoffs…

Brian McCann, C, Astros – $15MM option, no buyout: McCann’s option would have vested had he amassed 1,000 PAs from 2017-18, started 90 games behind the plate this year and avoided ending the season on the disabled list. But the 34-year-old definitely won’t meet the first two requirements, thanks in part to July knee surgery that kept him out until this past weekend. While McCann won’t be able to control his fate at season’s end, the Astros will still be able to bring him back. That’s not going to happen, though, at least not at McCann’s $15MM price tag. The seven-time All-Star was an important part of the Astros’ World Series-winning team a year ago, but he has struggled to a personal-worst .203/.277/.316 batting line through 177 PAs this season, and the power he has shown off throughout his career hasn’t been present (five home runs, .114 ISO).

Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees – $12.5MM option, $2MM buyout: Underrated throughout his career, Gardner is amid his sixth straight season of at least 2.5 fWAR, though his offensive numbers have dipped a bit. Gardner has only managed a .237/.327/.373 (93 wRC+) line in 541 PAs, but he has swatted 12 homers and stolen 13 bags. As has been the case for most of his career, the 34-year-old has provided significant value as a baserunner and defender. Gardner’s also a well-regarded clubhouse presence, though it’s hardly a lock that the career-long Yankee will once again wear pinstripes in 2019. The Yankees have several other high-profile corner outfielders under control – including Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, youngster Clint Frazier and the expensive, injury-laden Jacoby Ellsbury – and may even pursue Bryce Harper in free agency. It’s unclear how Gardner’s future will shake out, then, but it’s possible the Yankees will pick up the 35-year-old’s option and attempt to deal him. Gardner may well have trade value on what will essentially be a one-year deal, especially if the Yankees pay down some of the remaining cash.

Gerardo Parra, OF, Rockies – $12MM option, $1.5MM buyout: Parra has managed minus-1.8 fWAR and minus-2.1 rWAR in 1,202 PAs as a Rockie, making the three-year, $27.5MM guarantee they gave him entering the 2016 campaign a regrettable decision. It’ll be a shock if the Rockies don’t buy the 31-year-old out after the season.

Josh Harrison, 2B/3B/OF, Pirates – $10.5MM option, $1MM buyout: A Pirate since 2011, Harrison may be in his final weeks with the club. Across an injury-limited 351 PAs this season, the 31-year-old has slumped to a .255/.298/.360 showing with little power (seven HRs .106 ISO). Pittsburgh may be inclined to buy out Harrison, then, especially considering it’s a low-payroll team with younger, cheaper second base options in the fold, including Adam Frazier and Kevin Newman.

Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays – $8MM option, $250K buyout – Formerly a top prospect with the Mariners, Smoak’s career looked like a disappointment for a while, but he has finally broken out as a hitter over the past couple years in Toronto. Dating back to 2017, Smoak has totaled a Blue Jays-best 1,163 PAs and slashed .261/.356/.505 (129 wRC+) with 61 home runs, including 23 in 526 trips to the plate this season. So, even though the value of Smoak’s 2019 option has jumped from $6MM to $8MM this year, it should still be an easy one for Toronto to exercise.

David Freese, 3B/1B, Dodgers – $6MM option, $500K buyout: Since debuting in earnest with the Cardinals in 2010, Freese – whom the Dodgers just acquired from the Pirates – has always offered respectable offensive production. That has once again been the case this year, as the onetime World Series hero with St. Louis has posted a .283/.338/.443 line with nine HRs in a part-time role (269 PAs). Freese has also earned plus marks at the hot corner dating back to 2016, having combined for 15 Defensive Runs Saved (two this season) and a 9.9 Ultimate Zone Rating (2.7 in 2018). At worst, Freese is a valuable bench piece, but whether he’s valuable enough for the Dodgers to shell out $6MM next year is another question. The Dodgers are known for their depth, and they won’t be nearly as worried about spending under the competitive-balance tax threshold in 2019 – two factors that work in Freese’s favor. However, barring injuries to Justin Turner (who, granted, has only played in 77 games this year), they’re set at third base.

Jung Ho Kang, INF, Pirates – $5.5MM option, $250K buyout: Kang’s issues with drinking and driving in his native South Korea are well known, and as a result, he hasn’t played in the majors since 2016. The 31-year-old did return to the minor leagues this season after missing all of 2017, though his season ended in August on account of left wrist surgery; it’s possible that procedure also concluded his on-field tenure with the Pittsburgh organization. While Kang’s option for 2019 isn’t all that expensive, and he was a key contributor to the Pirates from 2015-16, it’s a decent bet the team will buy him out because of the off-field headaches he has caused.

Yangervis Solarte, INF, Blue Jays – $5.5MM option, $750K buyout: Acquired from the Padres last offseason, Solarte’s first year with the Blue Jays began well, but it has gone downhill over the past couple months. To his credit, Solarte has slugged 17 home runs and limited strikeouts (14.4 percent), but he has nonetheless hit an unimpressive .233/.287/.397 and recorded minus-0.6 fWAR over 471 PAs. The 31-year-old also hasn’t taken the field since Aug. 11 because of an oblique strain. With Josh Donaldson out of the picture, perhaps the Jays will keep Solarte around next year as an affordable third base option, though superstar prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be in the fold by then. In the event Toronto does pick up Solarte’s option and retain him, it’ll be in this same position with him heading into 2020, when he’ll have an $8MM club option or a $750K buyout.

Brandon Guyer, OF, Indians – $3MM option, $250K buyout: Guyer’s overall production has cratered since 2017, including his .191/.282/.357 showing in 177 PAs this year. However, the right-hander has been tough on southpaws (.233/.355/.467 in 107 PAs), which has typically been the case during his career. But that may not necessarily be enough for the Tribe to bring the soon-to-be 33-year-old Guyer back for $3MM.

Robinson Chirinos, C, Rangers – $2.375MM option, $1MM buyout: Going by wRC+ (107), Chirinos is in the midst of his fourth consecutive above-average offensive season. The 34-year-old has slashed .218/.337/.429 and shown off considerable power (17 homers, .211 ISO) over a career-high 377 PAs, though his strikeout rate has spiked to 34.5 percent (up from 26 percent lifetime). Still, despite Chirinos’ strikeout surge and his poor defensive numbers, his offensive production is well worth the price of next year’s option.