AL Notes: Rays, Cruz, Rangers, Colon, Blue Jays, Biggio
The Rays, along with the previously reported Astros and White Sox, have shown interest in free-agent designated hitter Nelson Cruz, per Jon Heyman of Fancred and Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Although Tampa Bay’s not known for throwing money around in free agency, the club currently has cash to play with and a need for a big-hitting presence after designating power hitter C.J. Cron for assignment this past Tuesday. Judging by the offensive prowess Cruz has shown off during his long career, he’d deftly step in for Cron. The 38-year-old Cruz is limited to DH, though, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote Saturday that the Rays may want to replace Cron with a player who poses a threat at the plate while also offering some defensive versatility. It’s also unclear whether the Rays would meet Cruz’s potential price (MLBTR predicts he’ll land a two-year, $30MM guarantee), with Topkin noting they might only hand out a one-year, $10MM-plus contract.
Here’s more on a couple other American League teams…
- Despite their need for starting pitching, the Rangers haven’t shown a desire to re-sign free agent Bartolo Colon, according to Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News. Even though he was the majors’ oldest player in 2018, the 45-year-old Colon tallied 146 1/3 innings and recorded the league’s third-lowest BB/9 (1.54) among those who threw 140 or more frames. At the same time, however, the right-hander finished bottom two among qualified starters in ERA (5.78), FIP (5.47) and K/9 (4.98). It was the second straight rough year for Colon, who may struggle to find a contract this offseason as a result.
- Blue Jays prospect Cavan Biggio enjoyed a breakout 2018 at the Double-A level, where he thrived at the plate while seeing extensive action at second, third and first. The Blue Jays, hoping to add to Biggio’s defensive flexibility, then sent the 23-year-old to the Arizona Fall League to garner outfield experience, as John Lott of The Athletic details (subscription required). Biggio, the son of Hall of Famer Craig Biggio, performed well in the grass, per Lott. It’s unclear if the Blue Jays will continue using Biggio in the outfield next year, but as Lott points out, taking on a super-utility role would likely hasten his arrival to the major leagues. Biggio, for his part, seems more than happy to play wherever Toronto wants him to, and director of player development Gil Kim believes “he’s got the athletic ability and the baseball acumen to do that effectively.”
Yankees Notes: Ottavino, Kikuchi, Harper
A few notes from the Bronx…
- With crucial bullpen pieces David Robertson and Zach Britton among their free agents, the Yankees are planning to add two relievers this offseason, according to general manager Brian Cashman (via Joel Sherman of the New York Post). One of those pickups may be free-agent right-hander Adam Ottavino, whom the Yankees are interested in, Sherman reports. The 33-year-old Ottavino – a New York City native – just put up a career season in Colorado, where he logged a 2.43 ERA/2.74 FIP with 12.98 K/9 and 4.17 BB/9 across 77 2/3 innings. On the heels of his marvelous 2018 campaign, MLBTR predicts Ottavino will join the Yankees on a three-year, $30MM contract this offseason.
- The Yankees have discussed signing Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, team owner Hal Steinbrenner revealed earlier this month (per David Lennon of Newsday). “I saw film on him during the pro scouting meetings,” Steinbrenner said. “We talked about that individual. We’ve always been paying attention to that area of the world — some unbelievably great players came out of there. So it won’t be any different this year.” Steinbrenner’s comments came before the Yankees acquired fellow lefty James Paxton from the Mariners this past Monday, which in theory could lessen the need for Kikuchi. However, the Yankees still seem destined to get at least one more high-end starter this offseason, and they’ve never been shy about pursuing hyped Japanese talent, evidenced by past signings such as Hideki Irabu, Hideki Matsui, Kei Igawa and Masahiro Tanaka. While the 27-year-old Kikuchi’s not yet available to major league clubs, that will change when the Seibu Lions – his team in Nippon Professional Baseball – post him in early December.
- New York is loaded in the outfield, where it boasts Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier and Jacoby Ellsbury. Free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper seems like more of a luxury than a need, then, though there has been speculation about the Yankees signing the superstar to play first base, where their top holdover, Luke Voit, dominated late in 2018 but doesn’t carry an extensive major league track record. Earlier this week, Cashman discussed the possibility of signing Harper to line up at first, telling the YES Network (via Mike Rosenstein of NJ.com): “People have talked about Bryce Harper being able to play first base, I don’t know if he can or can’t. I know he’s very athletic, but that’s not necessarily a bet I would recommend placing with the amount of money he’s expected to get.” Although Cashman doesn’t seem enthusiastic about Harper as a first base option, the executive added that he’s “not ruling anything out.”
Latest On Sonny Gray’s Market
After a nightmarish year in the Bronx, his first full season with the Yankees, right-hander Sonny Gray is among the majors’ most obvious trade candidates this winter. General manager Brian Cashman has made it known the Yankees are aiming to move Gray, who has drawn plenty of interest this offseason. Along with the previously reported Athletics and Padres, teams that are eyeing Gray include the Braves, Rangers and Twins, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
Any team that picks up Gray would be taking on a rental, as 2019 will be the 29-year-old’s final arbitration-eligible campaign. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Gray to earn $9.1MM, which may look steep for a pitcher who failed to maintain a spot in the Yankees’ rotation for all of last season and only managed a 4.90 ERA across 130 1/3 innings (30 appearances, 23 starts). However, ERA estimators such as FIP (4.17), xFIP (4.10) and SIERA (4.28) suggest Gray deserved better in the run prevention department in 2018, and while he did issue a high number of walks (3.94 per nine), he also posted quality strikeout (8.49 K/9) and groundball (50 percent) rates. Moreover, Gray’s struggles were mostly limited to the Bronx, as he logged a horrendous 6.98 ERA/5.98 FIP at home and a terrific 3.17 ERA/2.65 FIP on the road. Historically, Gray has been closer to the pitcher he was away from Yankee Stadium last season, as his 3.66 ERA and 3.74 FIP over 900 combined 2/3 innings with the A’s and Yankees demonstrate.
Of the newly listed teams pursuing Gray, the Rangers stand out as the club likely to have the most difficult time making the playoffs next season. Not only are the Rangers a rebuilding team stuck in a division with the Astros, A’s, Mariners and Angels, but they’re ridiculously thin on starting pitchers and may soon deal their No. 1 option, Mike Minor. It would be a surprise to see Texas come out on top in the race for Gray, then, while the other teams seem like more plausible landing spots.
The reigning NL East champion Braves have shown past interest in Gray – albeit with different front office leadership than they have now – and need to replace free agent Anibal Sanchez, who was unexpectedly one of their best starters in 2018. And though the Braves seem to have the payroll room to aim higher than Gray, general manager Alex Anthopoulos has suggested they’re hesitant to dish out expensive long-term deals at this juncture. Therefore, it makes sense that the Braves are interested in Gray, who’d be a relatively low-risk addition.
Minnesota, unlike Atlanta, disappointed last season, taking several steps backward after earning a playoff spot in 2017. The Twins are in a division that may be there for the taking, though, so the right moves this offseason could make the team serious AL Central contenders next year. In Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda (who missed all of last season), the Twins already have four established starters under control for next season. However, they’re lacking another proven hurler along the lines of Gray, who’d seemingly slot in ahead of the likes of Fernando Romero, Adalberto Mejia, and Stephen Gonsalves – a trio which has combined for 203 innings and 40 starts in the majors.
AL Notes: Ohtani, Rays, Cron, White Sox, Narvaez
Angels star Shohei Ohtani, fresh off a dazzling Rookie of the Year campaign in 2018, met with reporters from the Japan National Press Club in Tokyo this week to reflect on his transition to the Major Leagues. Ohtani, who starred both on the mound and in the box, fielded a wide array of inquiries, including the inevitable comparison to two-way godfather Babe Ruth. Regarding his decision to undergo Tommy John surgery, the 23-year-old acknowledged his initial reservations, but said his recovery has thus far gone well: “It hasn’t quite been two months, but I haven’t had any problems in my daily life,” he said. “For the first month or so, I felt like I couldn’t use my right arm the way I wanted, but I don’t feel like there are any problems now.” The Japanese star, who chose the Angels after a lengthy courting process a year ago that included over half of the league’s teams, originally seemed most lauded for his abilities on the mound, where his 96.7 MPH average fastball velocity in ’18 ranked among the league’s best, but perhaps welcomed even more acolytes with his work at the plate this season: after all, his .285/.361/.564 (152 wRC+) line ranked as the fifth-best park-adjusted mark in the American League among all performers with at least 350 PA, and the lefty swinger destroyed right-handed pitching at an 82 percent above-league-average mark.
In other news from around the league . . .
- The Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin takes care to note that the team’s designation for assignment of 1B/DH C.J. Cron was not financially motivated. Rather, says Topkin, the team hopes to upgrade at the position, and may be poised to do so “on a higher shelf than usual.” Cron, of course, was set to earn a projected $5.2MM in his second arbitration-eligible season in ’19, and hoped to build off a campaign that saw the righty slash .253/.323/.493, for a 122 wRC+. Unsteady performance in past seasons, though, has tempered optimism for the soon-to-be 29-year-old: Steamer, it should be noted, projects the former Angel to be just two percent above the league-average next season, which, with his limited defensive ability and a punitive positional adjustment, would place Cron right around replacement-level in the upcoming campaign. With their perennially limited monetary resources at hand, moving on from the 1B/DH seemed like a prudent move for the surging Rays.
- In a fascinating look into the inner workings of a team’s low-level acquisition substructure, James Fegan of The Athletic details the process by which the White Sox went about acquiring breakout catcher Omar Narvaez. A since-retired scout, it seems, saw just two Narvaez at-bats in the short-season New York-Penn League back in 2013, but his recommendation was enough to convince the ChiSox brass to nab the (at the time) 21-year-old in the minor league portion of the 2013 Rule V Draft. Narvaez’s proceeding output in the upper levels of Chicago’s system was mostly uninspiring, to say the least, but the now 26-year-old has found MLB pitching much more to his liking, posting a career 108 wRC+ over 734 PA since his debut in 2016, a mark well above the offensive baseline for his position. Steamer, likely citing the years of aforementioned ineptitude in the minors, remains unconvinced, pegging the backstop for a 93 wRC+ in ’19, though the lefty’s excellent plate discipline numbers (career 12.3% BB rate against just a 16.9% K rate) will certainly work in his favor moving forward.
Cardinals Notes: Goldschmidt, Outfield, Bader
The Cardinals, who in the past two seasons alone have jettisoned a near roster’s worth of offensive talent, are still searching for a reliable middle-of-the-order presence, hears Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. On the back of landmark drafts under the direction of former Scouting Directors Jeff Luhnow and the now-imprisoned Chris Correa, St. Louis, by the middle of the decade, found themselves dripping with projected regulars across the diamond. Though a trimming of the surplus was surely in order, the current offensive version of the Senior Circuit’s most distinguished franchise is still left, aside from the ever-reliable bat of corner infielder Matt Carpenter, without its coveted level of thump. Franchise officials, at this juncture, could be lamenting the ’18 dumpings of Tommy Pham (.343/.448/.622 after a midseason trade to the Rays) and Luke Voit (187 wRC+ with the Yankees), but seem to have a number of potential targets in mind as the offseason approaches its zenith.
- The club “has spoken” with the Diamondbacks about Paul Goldschmidt, says Goold, though the 31-year-old might be a disjointed fit on an already-unbalanced roster. The club’s second-best hitter in 2018, by a wide margin, was former minor league journeyman Jose Martinez, whose recent forays in the outfield have been mostly disastrous. Goldschmidt, for his part, hasn’t played a single inning at a position other than first base in his MLB career thus far, and the club’s corner-outfield spots are already manned by high-profile acquisitions in Marcell Ozuna and Dexter Fowler, the latter of whom is owed nearly $48MM over the next three seasons. Former top-40 prospect Tyler O’Neill, who showed promise, if an undiscerning eye, last season, is also in the mix, though the club could certainly dangle one (or perhaps two) of the four to make a room for the all-world bat of the six-time All-Star.
- Once the envy of executives across the league, the Redbird farm has thinned considerably in recent seasons, though it’s continued its longstanding tradition of churning out under-the-radar performers. Ben Frederickson, also of the StL Post-Dispatch, offers a wonderful overview of former third-round pick Harrison Bader, who broke out to the tune of 3.5 fWAR on the back of sterling center-field defense this season. Quotes from team president Bill DeWitt III aggressively paint the 24-year-old as an “emerging star,” though caution should certainly reign in the case of the University of Florida product. Bader, after all, did struggle in consecutive AAA stints in 2016 and ’17, and posted just a .251/.317/.378 line against right-handers last season while whiffing in over 31% of his plate appearances.
NL Notes: Rockies, Cardinals, Nationals
Nolan Arenado projects to head up the 2019-20 free agent class, and Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post finds similarities with Matt Holliday’s departure from the franchise a decade ago. Holliday explained to Saunders why he found the Rockies’ final contract extension offer “disappointing,” while former GM Dan O’Dowd also provided his contrasting recollection of the situation.
- Holliday also took part in a fascinating lunch with members of the St. Louis Cardinals coaching crew recently. Manager Mike Shildt, bench coach Oliver Marmol and new hitting coach Jeff Albert shared a chance meal with Holliday at the Cardinals’ training facility in Jupiter, Florida where Holliday spends his offseason. Per the Athletic’s Bernie Miklasz, the foursome spent their lunch session talking hitting approaches, data usage and baseball philosophy. Specifically, Shildt hopes to improve the Cardinals contact rates this season, hence the hiring of Albert, who specializes in helping players refine their approach at the plate. One interesting exercise Albert used in his former post with the Astros involved making hitters verbally identify a pitch as a ball or a strike during batting practice. With repetition, Houston players improved in their ability to accurately differentiate balls from strikes. Shildt began shifting the Cardinals to a more contact-oriented approach when he replaced Mike Matheny last season, but this year he’ll have reinforcements in his efforts to further decrease the Cardinals’ strikeout rate.
- Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com suggests the Nationals might not be finished in their search for a frontline catcher, despite the recent signing of Kurt Suzuki. The 35-year-old backstop may easily give the Nats 50 to 60 games behind the dish, but few teams employ a true workhouse catcher nowadays and Suzuki might be better suited as the lesser half of a catching tandem. Kerzel imagines the possible ways in which GM Mike Rizzo might pair Suzuki with Yasmani Grandal, J.T. Realmuto or Wilson Ramos, though he admits it is equally likely the Nationals head into next season with Suzuki atop the depth chart. Considering Suzuki was arguably the top option available this winter outside the big three listed above, it would be quite the coup for the Nats to come away with another top option at this juncture. Still, durability concerns for a 35-year-old backstop aren’t wholly unreasonable.
Quick Hits: Padres, Rule 5, Twins
The San Diego Padres were busy this week in shaping their 40-man roster ahead of December’s Rule 5 draft. The release of former prospect Cory Spangenberg and Christian Villanueva’s transpacific journey to the Yomiuiri Giants prefaced further roster reshaping via a pair of minor-league swaps. Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen reviews the prospects in those deals and others involved in swaps from this past week: Walker Lockett, Ignacio Feliz, Colten Brewer, Esteban Quiroz, Rowan Wick, Jason Vosler, Jordan Foley, Jefry Valdez and Tanner Anderson. While these moves appear minor, many of these players will have the opportunity to make an impact for pennant contenders next fall if they can impress their new gatekeepers in Cleveland, Colorado, New York, Boston and Chicago, respectively. Further Rule 5 news and more from around the league…
- MLB.com picks intriguing candidates that could be selected from each team in December’s Rule 5 draft. Though it requires patience and a roster spot, the Rule 5 draft has been a viable resource in team building, especially for worst to first hopefuls who are closer to the former than the latter. Notably, the Cubs and Astros, two recent exemplars of roster renovation, each took advantage of the process by snatching players (Hector Rondon and Marwin Gonzalez, respectively) who made significant contributions to their title campaigns.
- By the middle of last season, Twins’ chief baseball officer Derek Falvey was already preparing for the possibility that Joe Mauer might retire, per the Athletic’s Dan Hayes (subscription link). The Twins continue to explore every option at first base, including moving struggling slugger Miguel Sano from third to first. One path they are unlikely to traverse is trading for a one-year rental like Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt. The focus of the 2019 season in Minnesota will be as much about monitoring the rebound efforts of Sano and center fielder Byron Buxton as making a push for the playoffs, and with such uncertainty around their two high-ceiling stars, Falvey and company aren’t ready for an all-in move like trading for Arizona’s All-Star first baseman. Still, seeking a multi-year option at first base does not equate to youth, necessarily, as they are open to players like Carlos Santana or recently-DFAed C.J. Cron, each of whom would have two years of team control if acquired.
- Elsewhere around the infield, the Twins are open to engaging Jorge Polanco‘s positional flexibility as well. Polanco and Sano are currently penciled in at shortstop and third base, but that could change depending on their offseason acquisitions. For now, they are in the market for an offensive-minded second baseman, in which case Polanco would stay at short. There are more than a few viable short-term options on the free agent market to keep second base warm for prospect Nick Gordon, who was recently added to the 40-man roster. You can check out MLBTR’s full Offseason Outlook for the Twins here.
- In the dugout, Bill Evers rounds out Rocco Baldelli‘s staff as the major league catching coach. Evers, 64, is a 30-year coaching veteran with experience as a bench coach, manager, and minor-league field coordinator. He managed Baldelli when he was a player in Triple-A back in 2002, a relationship redolent of Alex Cora‘s hiring of Ron Roenicke as his bench coach. Roenicke, too, managed his future helmsman when Cora was a prospect coming up in the Dodgers system.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/24/18
In this post, we’ll track the minor moves from around the MLB today…
- Jacob Scavuzzo announced, via his instagram, that he will continue his professional ball playing career with the San Diego Padres organization. Scavuzzo, 24, was a 21st round draft pick of the Dodgers in 2012, hitting .258/.310/.448 with 91 career home runs across six minor league seasons in the Dodgers system. High strikeout rates and poor plate disciplines have limited Scavuzzo as he has reported to Double A Tulsa for three straight campaigns, but the power potential is there. Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen named him among a list of “fliers with big pop” in the Dodgers organization last May, but 2018 brought more of the same from Scavuzzo – he hit 26 home runs with a .523 SLG, 5.9% BB% and 23.5% K% for the Drillers. For the Padres, he represents respectable left field depth in the upper levels of the minors with at least a hint of potential for more if progress can be made by way of his plate discipline.
Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.
A persistent 2018 Rockies club made it into the postseason and won a chance at a divisional series, but ran into a Brewers buzzsaw. They’ll look to carry the momentum into the coming season, but will first face a somewhat tricky offseason.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Charlie Blackmon, OF: $94MM through 2023 (final two seasons via player option)
- Ian Desmond, 1B/OF: $40MM through 2021 (includes buyout of 2022 club option)
- Wade Davis, RP: $36MM through 2020 (includes buyout of 2021 mutual option)
- Bryan Shaw, RP: $19.5MM through 2020 (includes buyout of 2021 club option)
- Jake McGee, RP: $20MM through 2020 (includes buyout of 2021 club option)
- Mike Dunn, RP: $8MM through 2019 (includes buyout of 2020 club option)
- Chris Iannetta, C: $4.75MM through 2019 (includes buyout of 2020 vesting club option)
- Seunghwan Oh, RP: $2.5MM through 2019
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Nolan Arenado (5.155) – $26.1MM
- Trevor Story (3.000) – $6.4MM
- Chad Bettis (4.096) – $3.2MM
- Jon Gray (3.062) – $3.2MM
- Tyler Anderson (3.065) – $2.9MM
- Chris Rusin (4.092) – $1.7MM
- Scott Oberg (3.063) – $1.2MM
- Tony Wolters (2.161) – $1.1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Bettis, Rusin, Wolters
Option Decisions
- Gerardo Parra, OF: Declined $12.5MM club option in favor of $1.5MM buyout
Free Agents
[Colorado Rockies Depth Chart | Colorado Rockies Payroll Outlook]
How often have we heard the refrain that the Rockies need starting pitching? It has become an annual rite both to cite the need and assume an inability to fulfill it. Yet here we are, staring at a Colorado club that appears to have an effective, affordable, homegrown staff.
There was uncertainty entering the 2018 season, but it largely resolved in the Rockies’ favor. German Marquez and Kyle Freeland emerged as high-quality rotation pieces, with the former turning in the more impressive peripherals and the latter finishing with a sub-3.00 ERA. Despite showing some susceptibility to the long ball and enduring some tough stretches, Jon Gray mostly appears to be another front-of-the-staff asset. And Tyler Anderson was a sturdy piece who turned in 32 useful starts.
That’s a strong four-man rotation group that could form an excellent building block in 2019 and beyond. Filling out the starting unit remains necessary. Antonio Senzatela and Chad Bettis (if tendered) would perhaps be the top internal options, with competition and depth provided by a handful of others who have some MLB experience or appear close to getting a first shot. Jeff Hoffman is the best-known name, but the 40-man roster also includes lefty Sam Howard and right-handers Yency Almonte, Jesus Tinoco, and Ryan Castellani.
None of these candidates is a slam dunk, so it’s certainly possible the Rox will add an arm to the mix via free agency, trade or claim. GM Jeff Bridich has not used the open market to build his rotation, though that may just be a reflection of the internal candidates and external opportunities he has encountered. It’s hard to get a read here, truly. The Rockies could justifiably seek anything from veteran depth all the way up to a top-of-the-rotation piece in the right circumstances, but odds are that a major portion of the Rockies’ resources will not be dedicated to the rotation. There are more glaring needs, after all, in other areas.
One portion of the roster that owner Dick Monfort has greenlighted spending on is the bullpen, with the Rockies bringing in a parade of free agents on fairly significant contracts — few of which have really worked out as hoped. Their best relievers in 2018 came from other avenues, with the homegrown Adam Ottavino and Scott Oberg emerging and later being joined by Seunghwan Oh in a summer trade. While the latter two will return in setup roles in front of expensive closer Wade Davis, Ottavino is now a free agent.
Davis, of course, was the biggest splurge of all the recent reliever signings. He was generally effective but not dominant in 2018, leading the National League with 43 saves and compiling 10.7 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 but also ending with only a 4.13 ERA. A notable drop in his swinging-strike rate leaves some cause for concern, but the Rockies at least have reason to think Davis can anchor the pen in the season to come. The outlook is far murkier for the other recent free agent splashes: Shaw and McGee combined to allow more than six earned per nine innings in 2018 while Mike Dunn was injured and ineffective. Meanwhile, Chris Rusin hit a wall, Harrison Musgrave was mediocre, and no other pitcher contributed even twenty frames.
So, will the Rockies dare return to free agency to buttress this unit? Perhaps, but there’s already so much cash tied up in the relief corps that it’d be hard to keep throwing money at the problem. Plus, there are some in-house possibilities to consider. The aforementioned Almonte did have a strong showing in 14 appearances, though the club did not see fit to utilize him in the postseason. Tinoco showed some promise as a relief candidate in the Arizona Fall League. And southpaw DJ Johnson had an interesting season that could suggest he’s ready for a full go at the bigs.
It’s arguable, then, that the bullpen ought to be approached in much the same way as the rotation: if an opportunity arises to achieve good value in making an improvement, then it ought to be considered. Certainly, the org could reinvest money that would have gone to Bettis and Rusin if they are non-tendered; picking up a few relievers on low-cost MLB or low-risk minors contracts seems wise. But perhaps it’s time the Rockies retired the strategy of targeting certain veteran pen pieces and out-bidding the market to get them.
If the Rockies are to make a true splash, then, it will likely be on a bat of some kind. The 2018 lineup simply had too many holes, with only four players accumulating two or more wins above replacement by measure of Fangraphs. One of those, second baseman DJ LeMahieu, barely reached that level and is in any event a free agent. He’ll be joined on the open market by the Rockies’ fifth-best overall performer from the position-player side, long-time outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. The already porous group, then, has yet more openings to account for.
The left side of the infield is the one place without any questions — at least, that is, unless you’re wondering whether Nolan Arenado or Trevor Story might be willing to sign a long-term contract. Bridich and Monfort have ample reason to open talks with both players this winter. Keeping Arenado from the open market, as they did Charlie Blackmon, will be a major challenge that will present some major risks. Leverage will be tough to come by, but the Rockies decisionmakers may be more inclined to stick to their valuations due to the presence of top prospect Brendan Rodgers, who is steadily rising and could be a significant MLB option in the 2019 season.
Arenado and Story have already earned big 2019 arb raises with their excellent play, the precise amounts of which still need to be negotiated, meaning the club has some tough financial decisions to make elsewhere on the roster. Last year, the Rockies opened with a club-record Opening Day payroll of about $137MM. They’re already close to having that amount committed to the 2019 roster, at least assuming they tender their entire arb class and pay it something close to MLBTR’s $45.8MM cumulative estimate. Even trimming a few of the marginal members of the group would only open a few million dollars of space. Likewise, some kind of bad contract swap is always imaginable, but the Rockies could largely be stuck with their undesirable reliever commitments.
In addition to internal promotions, that leaves two ways to improve the remaining areas of the roster: trading for or signing relatively inexpensive players, on the one hand, or boosting payroll, on the other. A legitimate spending increase would move the Rockies into the upper third of league payroll, breaking new ground for the organization.
Whatever the means are, the Rockies need boosts at several positions. The catching situation stands out, as veteran Chris Iannetta did not excel at the plate in his first season in Colorado. He’s assured of one spot, but it’d be disappointing to continue fielding the anemic bat of Tony Wolters or simply to hope that Tom Murphy will make good on his promise. The Rockies are one of a handful or two of contenders that ought to make serious inquiries on Marlins backstop J.T. Realmuto, although there’s little question the Fish would clamor for Rodgers in return. Though free agent Wilson Ramos seems a poor match, given the lack of a DH and his history of leg injuries, long-time division rival Yasmani Grandal would make for a fine target — if Monfort finds some money under the mattress. Robinson Chirinos or Martin Maldonado might be the right fit, balancing quality and cost, or the club could roll the dice a bit on Matt Wieters or Brian McCann to set up some platoon balance, with Murphy’s presence helping to diversify the risk. One intriguing option might be for the Rockies to send one of their underperforming relievers in a salary-swapping deal of some kind for a player such as Jason Castro or Alex Avila.
It’s debatable where the next-most-pressing need lies, in no small part because the remaining openings overlap. Let’s start by setting the stage: even after CarGo’s departure, the Rockies’ three best outfielders are all left-handed hitters (Blackmon, David Dahl, and Raimel Tapia). Ian Desmond has unfortunately been a deficient offensive performer since arriving, and is blocking a more potent bat at first base. And there’s a vacancy at second base, with the left-handed-hitting Ryan McMahon and righty swinging Garrett Hampson factoring strongly while Rodgers looms.
From my vantage point, it seems clear that Desmond ought to stuff his first baseman’s mitt into the back of his locker as a starting point. The club should not continue to put a marginal hitter in a spot that can easily (and cheaply) support much greater offensive output. Even if he doesn’t bounce back much at the plate, though, Desmond could be a sensible-enough fourth outfielder who’d limit the exposure of the existing top trio to left-handed pitching. Or, instead, Noel Cuevas or some outside acquisition — Cameron Maybin, say, or a buy-low trade candidate like Aaron Altherr, Domingo Santana, or Keon Broxton — could take the duty of right-handed-hitting fourth outfielder, leaving Desmond to serve as more of a true utility piece who could appear all over the diamond.
Moving Desmond off of first base would leave the Rockies free to pursue any number of bigger bats. C.J. Cron, for instance, is available right now with a meager projected salary of $5.2MM (potentially less if he clears waivers) after being dumped by the Rays. He out-hit all but two Rockies players in 2018. And the market is loaded with alternatives. Justin Smoak would make for a plausible trade target, while perhaps a wild Carlos Santana salary-swapping arrangement isn’t out of the question. Greg Bird of the Yankees may be out of time there but thrived as an amateur in Colorado. Justin Bour is a free agent now, along with fellow lefty swingers Matt Adams, Lucas Duda, and Logan Morrison as well as right-handed-hitting old friend Mark Reynolds.
It’s also possible that the Rockies could go without a true first baseman or a single, regular second bagger — particularly if they prefer to maintain greater defensive flexibility. Beyond Desmond, Hampson can play short or second, perhaps obviating the need for Pat Valaika or another glove-only infield reserve, and has also dabbled in the outfield. McMahon hasn’t yet appeared on the grass but does have experience at the 3-4-5 infield spots. Perhaps the club should seek yet more variability in targeting new players. Daniel Murphy would be an intriguing fit as a player who can line up at second or first while providing a lineup boost, or Neil Walker could do so at a lower rate of pay. (Brad Miller might be a minor-league-contract version of that concept.) Likewise, the righty-swinging Brian Dozier could be worth a look as a buy-low candidate who could see time in either spot on the right side of the infield. We’ve already heard of the Rockies’ interest in Marwin Gonzalez. He’d be a wonderful fit in this sort of a scheme, though he’s not going to come cheap. Josh Harrison might offer a more budget-friendly version of the same profile. Undesirable contracts (e.g., Dee Gordon, Jason Kipnis, Starlin Castro) and potential cast-away arb-eligible players (e.g., Joe Panik, Devon Travis) could also provide avenues.
When the Rockies signed Desmond, the team said it had targeted a baseball player rather than a position, noting that his versatility would come in handy over the life of the contract. Using him more loosely now would free up an immense number of possibilities, opening the door to more offensive production (including through greater platoon usage) in a cost-efficient manner (not least of which because they’ll be selling free agent hitters on a chance to bat at altitude). It’d be great if the Rockies could figure a way to spend or finagle their way to a true regular at first, second, the outfield, and/or behind the dish. If not, though, they can use some flexible existing resources and combine them with versatile outside assets to make an intriguing supporting cast for the strong rotation and trio of star position players. Keeping up with the Dodgers will not be an easy feat, particularly with resource limitations, but there seem to be some creative avenues that make it imaginable.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/23/18
Here are the day’s minor moves:
- Indy ball flamethrower Taylor Grover will get a shot with the Reds after signing a minor-league deal, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic writes on Twitter. Grover was a tenth-round pick of the Red Sox, but never made it past the Double-A level and found himself out of the affiliated ranks this year. The 27-year-old responded with an eyebrow-raising campaign in which he not only worked into the triple digits with his fastball but pitched to a 2.55 ERA with 11.9 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 over 53 frames split between the American Association and Atlantic League.