NL West Rumors: Lynn, Roark, Giants, Cervelli, Dodgers, Reds, Greinke, Padres
A busy day of pitching transactions included Tanner Roark being traded from the Nationals to the Reds, and free agent Lance Lynn nearing an apparent agreement with the Rangers. Those moves take two potential Giants targets off the board, as Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reported that San Francisco had interest in its own Roark deal, while The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly noted that the Giants had interest in Lynn before his reported price tag (three years and $30MM from Texas) rose too high for their liking. The Giants are known to be exploring reinforcements for a rotation that has still has Madison Bumgarner as the ace, but a lot of inexperience and question marks in the rest of the starting five.
Some more from around the NL West…
- The Dodgers have been in touch with the Pirates about catcher Francisco Cervelli, MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick reports. Coming off a solid 2018 season, Cervelli has received trade interest from several teams. The 32-year-old is only under contract through 2019 (at $11.5MM in salary), so that type of short-term fit could appeal to a Dodgers team that has top catching prospects Keibert Ruiz and Will D. Smith getting closer to cracking the MLB roster. In addition to starters like Cervelli, Gurnick notes that L.A. is also looking at “fallback options” like veteran catcher Nick Hundley.
- The Dodgers have been heavily linked to the Reds in trade talks, and while Yasiel Puig has prominently featured in these rumors, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter links) hears that Puig hasn’t been involved in one of the latest proposals. This version of a deal would see Matt Kemp and Alex Wood go to Cincinnati in exchange for Homer Bailey, which would shave roughly $13MM off of the Dodgers’ luxury tax payroll calculations since Kemp’s contract has a higher average annual value than Bailey’s deal. Given Bailey’s struggles and injury problems over the last few seasons, one would imagine L.A. might pursue something more substantial back (i.e. a prospect or two) rather than pure salary relief, though it’s worth noting that the Dodgers acquired Kemp last offseason in a deal that certainly appeared at the time to be simply a bad contract swap. Clearing some luxury tax room would likely also allow the Dodgers to make another big-ticket addition.
- Zack Greinke might not be dealt until the trade deadline, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets, as the Diamondbacks feel they could get more for the ace right-hander in July than they could now, with so many other starters available on the market. Those other pitchers also don’t come with Greinke’s hefty $95.5MM contract attached, making it difficult for the D’Backs to find a trade partner at the moment.
- With the Padres hunting for a utility infielder, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link) suggests a few options with ties to the organization. The Rangers’ Jurickson Profar or the Diamondbacks’ Nick Ahmed would make sense as trade targets, as GM A.J. Preller is very familiar with Profar from their time together with the Rangers, and Ahmed was a “favorite” of manager Andy Green when Green was on Arizona’s coaching staff. Veteran free agent Daniel Descalso could also be a fit.
AL East Notes: Kimbrel, Sox, Mets, Yankees, Sanchez, Rays, Elias
Agents representing some of the top available relievers have been told by the Red Sox that the team is waiting on Craig Kimbrel before deciding on other bullpen options, NBC Sports Boston’s Evan Drellich reports. This would seemingly run counter to other recent reports, as Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently stated that the team wasn’t planning to spend big on a closer, while Kimbrel is reportedly looking for the priciest contract ever landed by a relief pitcher. Obviously some gamesmanship could be at work here, as Drellich notes, and he suggests that a shorter-term and potentially backloaded contract with a high average annual value could be a fit for both sides. This would give Kimbrel a big payday while also reloading the Boston bullpen while the club is in a win-now window, as several notable stars are set for free agency in the next year or two.
- In another chat with media today, Dombrowski told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter links) and other reporters that was happy with his starting outfielders and his catching mix, and wasn’t looking to make any changes. In regards to the latter position, the Red Sox have received at least some interest in their catchers from the Mets (as per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo) as New York continues to explore secondary plans if the club can’t land J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins.
- Even after agreeing to a reunion with J.A. Happ today, Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters (including Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News) that the team isn’t necessarily done adding starting pitching. The Happ deal “gives me more comfort,” Cashman said, though “It doesn’t mean that we would be out of the market all together….That doesn’t preclude us from being open minded to any other options that develop over time. In the meantime, it does allow us to pivot and focus further on other aspects of our roster, too.” Some of the bigger-name pitchers associated with the Yankees, however, don’t appear to on the radar at the moment. Sources tell Ackert that the Yankees balked at the Indians‘ asking price for Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer, while another source describes a trade with the Mets for Noah Syndergaard as “extremely unlikely.”
- In trade talks with the Diamondbacks about Paul Goldschmidt, “the Rays were willing to at least discuss” the possibility of dealing outfield prospect Jesus Sanchez, the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin writes. Preseason prospect rankings had Sanchez as a consensus top-60 minor leaguer in all of baseball, and the now-21-year-old outfielder continues to move up the Rays’ ladder, making his Double-A debut in 2018. Moving such a youngstar even from a deep farm system would’ve been a bold move for just one year of Goldschmidt’s services, yet Topkin believes it could be a sign of how seriously Tampa Bay is prepared to pursue elite talent. This could be a hint towards the Rays’ ventures towards other notable trade targets, such as perhaps Realmuto.
- There still isn’t any solid word about Brandon Hyde as the Orioles‘ new manager, as GM Mike Elias didn’t even confirm that Hyde received an offer during today’s session with media (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko). “In my position I can’t be out in front of events or the one who’s naming names or specifying timelines in public, obviously. But I think we’re in good shape. I’m hopeful that we’ll be able to have a good hire in due time,” Elias said.
Pitching Notes: Nats, Jays, White Sox, Athletics
The Nationals already seemed like a possible ongoing pursuer of starting pitching before trading away Tanner Roark; now, it’s all but inevitable that the club will add another new arm. Veteran free agents Wade Miley and Anibal Sanchez are both on the Nats’ radar, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links), though it’s not clear whether either is particularly likely to land in D.C. Both hurlers turned in excellent results in 2018 after overcoming injuries, with the latter relying on his ability to induce groundballs and the latter finally overcoming his home run woes. Sustainability remains a question, of course, as each has had his share of struggles in seasons prior.
- Whether the Nats will also be exploring higher-end pitching options isn’t yet fully clear, but president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo did say today that the club is performing “due diligence” on Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, as Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com tweets. Given the wide interest that the 27-year-old has drawn to this point, it seems safe to assume the Nationals are at least open to making another significant rotation addition this winter.
- It’s still far too soon to know how the market will develop for Kikuchi, but we keep hearing of teams that wish to be involved to some degree. The Blue Jays intend to sit down with the 27-year-old lefty, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter), adding another organization. Though the Toronto club in no way profiles as a 2019 contender — most of the talk has surrounded its possible marketing of its own pitching — it surely has designs on a fairly quick bounce back and may view Kikuchi as a nice target to provide some good innings both now and in the future.
- White Sox GM Rick Hahn says he’s not likely to add a significant starter via free agency (via James Fegan of The Athletic, on Twitter), but that evidently won’t stop him from checking in at the top of the market for relievers. The Chicago organization has “shown interest” in veteran hurler Adam Ottavino, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports on Twitter. It’ll likely cost a pretty penny to reel in the talented right-hander, who is also a clear target for more obvious contenders, though perhaps the White Sox will plan to offer him and others a chance to work as the closer.
- It seems the Athletics are contemplating another bullpen buildout after succeeding with that strategy in 2018. Rosenthal tweets that the organization is interested in a reunion with Jeurys Familia, who certainly also ought to draw quite a few hits from other teams, particularly since he only just turned 29. While the rotation is an obvious need in Oakland, Rosenthal says it’s one that’s likelier to be met at a later point in the offseason — with “inexpensive” arms. It sounds as if the A’s won’t be driving the market on any of their top free agent targets. The search for diamonds in the rough paid out handsomely last winter, but hitting it rich again will surely be a challenge.
Craig Kimbrel Reportedly Asking For Nine-Figure Contract
We’ve heard very little to this point about the market for veteran closer Craig Kimbrel. That may be due to his eye-popping asking price: over $100MM, per Jayson Stark of The Athletic (Twitter link).
Kimbrel and his reps at SportsMeter are obviously shooting for a record-breaking pact, at least as a starting point. It had previously been reported that the 30-year-old hurler was looking for six years, which has never before been secured by a reliever on the open market.
To this point, the largest and longest relief pitching contract is the five-year, $86MM Aroldis Chapman deal with the Yankees. That level of pay is obviously reserved for the truly elite relief arms — those few who, like Kimbrel, have been utterly dominant for extended stretches of time.
When the 2017 season came to a close, a nine-figure promise seemed well within reach for Kimbrel, who for the fourth time threw at least sixty innings of sub-2.00 ERA ball — and did so with an insane combination of 126 strikeouts against just 14 walks. He induced swinging strikes on just under one in five of the pitches he threw while maintaining a career-high 98.7 mph average fastball velocity.
Unfortunately, the final year of Kimbrel’s contract — an extension long ago inked with the Braves, then traded to the Padres and on to the Red Sox — was not to that standard. Kimbrel ended the 2018 campaign with a 2.74 ERA in 62 1/3 innings, with an excellent but hardly otherworldly mix of 13.9 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9. He still pumped 97.5 with the heater, though that was the first time he had dipped below a 98 mph mean heater since 2013.
Most worrying of all was Kimbrel’s uncomfortable postseason effort. It’d be silly to make too much of some brief struggles, and it all worked out in the end, but we’re talking about marketing a player as an unmatchable finishing piece for a team that wants to win it all.
There’s little doubt that Kimbrel’s October scuffles dented his armor a bit, though he also shouldn’t be counted out for a return to glory. Two of Kimbrel’s least-effective seasons have come among the past three, but he’s still unquestionably among the game’s very best relief pitchers. And his durability has been exemplary as well.
Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Kimbrel would set a new record, but only for average annual value for a reliever contract rather than total guarantee. It remains to be seen how things develop, but it’s notable that he’s aiming quite high to open the market.
MLBTR Chat Transcript: Murphy, Ottavino, Tulowitzki, Winter Meetings
Click here to view the transcript for MLBTR Chat With Jason Martinez: December 12, 2018
Reds Acquire Tanner Roark
The Reds have announced the acquisition of veteran righty Tanner Roark from the Nationals. Reliever Tanner Rainey goes to Washington in the swap.
There have been indications over recent months that the Nats were inclined to move on from Roark, who projects to earn $9.8MM in his final trip through arbitration. It seems reasonable to anticipate that the D.C. organization has its eyes on another upgrade to its staff, with an obvious need for one or two additional rotation pieces.
Meanwhile, Roark will help to shore up a Cincinnati starting unit that the club has long targeted for improvement. The 32-year-old has thrown at least 180 frames in each of the past three seasons, even if the results haven’t always been there. Adding him to the staff likely won’t take the Reds out of the market for starters, though the club surely values the lack of a long-term commitment given the price for open-market pitching we’re seeing so far this winter.
Roark has, to be sure, turned in some eye-popping earned run averages over full seasons, but it’s tough to see him as much of an upside play. He has only once topped a ten percent swinging-strike rate, during his otherwise poor 2017 season, and has consistently graded out as a low-4 ERA type hurler in the eyes of ERA estimators.
That’s not to say that there isn’t value in Roark’s profile — there is. But it seems likelier that the Reds should anticipate a quality, durable rotation piece than the front-line starter Roark produced like in the 2014 and 2016 seasons, in which he spun 2.85 and 2.83 ERAs, respectively, in ~200-frame samples. The varying highs and lows over the years have seemingly correlated more with variations in opponents’ batting averages on balls in play than with significant differences in the underlying quality of Roark’s work on the mound.
If there’s an area of concern, it could be in the cozy confines of Great American Ball Park. Roark has never had particularly pressing issues with the long ball, but he has coughed up quite a few more in his lesser seasons (2015, 2017, 2018) than in his good ones. And after turning in approximately 48% groundball rates over the prior three years, Roark dropped to 40.7% in 2018 even as his flyball rate rose to 37.6% after sitting at or below 32% in that same three-year span.
As for the other Tanner R. in this swap, the 25-year-old Rainey is perhaps a more intriguing asset than his forgettable MLB debut effort would suggest. He scuffled badly in an eight-appearance showing last year, but did show a blazing fastball that touched 100 and averaged out at a healthy 98.3 mph.
Promising, Rainey also produced 52 innings of 2.60 ERA ball at the Triple-A level in 2018. Of course, that comes with a massive caveat: he also surrendered more than six free passes per nine innings, continuing his longstanding control difficulties. The Nats have taken some other notable risks on high-octane, command-challenged hurlers this winter. It seems likely that Rainey will open his time with the organization at Triple-A, unless he shows a major spark or a clear need arises during camp.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Evening Trade Chatter: Realmuto, Profar, Reds, Dodgers, Rockies
With rumors flying about Marlins backstop J.T. Realmuto, it’s still hard to guess where he’ll land. Miami president of baseball operations Mike Hill says that’s a result of the robust demand for Realmuto, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. While the Fish are working to home in on a narrower slate of suitors, per Hill, it’s hard at this point to do so. The Rays are one of the teams to have “circle[d] back” on Realmuto, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter), which lends credence to Hill’s statement. Though the Tampa Bay organization recently added Mike Zunino behind the dish, it seems another acquisition could still be contemplated. Both players could conceivably coexist on the same roster (perhaps, but not necessarily, in a three-catcher arrangement with Michael Perez), or the Rays could in theory flip Zunino.
For now, that’s just another scenario to keep an eye on as the market develops. Here’s some more trade chatter from the Winter Meetings:
- The Athletics have engaged the Rangers in trade talks regarding infielder Jurickson Profar, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). It seems the Oakland organization is scanning the market at second base, as the club is known to have interest in bringing back Jed Lowrie and has also been connected to Ian Kinsler (link) and DJ LeMahieu (link), with veteran Troy Tulowitzki perhaps representing a possibility as well. Rosenthal adds that handing the job to Franklin Barreto remains a possibility, as GM David Forst recently suggested, though it certainly appears that’s not the club’s preference. Profar, who seems to have been around forever but is just 25 years of age, turned in easily his most impressive season to date in 2018, slashing .254/.335/.458 with twenty long balls and ten steals over 594 plate appearances.
- There has been a bevy of rumors surrounding the Reds, who seem to be knocking on quite a few doors at multiple positions. Pitching, though, remains the key. The Cincinnati ballclub is still “active in trade discussions” with the Yankees on Sonny Gray and the Blue Jays on Marcus Stroman, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). It’ll surprise few to hear that the Reds see those two hurlers as more reasonably achievable targets than Indians ace Corey Kluber, as Morosi adds. Both Gray and Stroman profile as bounceback targets, marking quite a distinction from Kluber, with the former clearly set to be dealt but the latter occupying a less-certain position on the trade market. With two years of control remaining, the Jays are said to be putting a high price on Stroman.
- Speaking of Reds trade chatter, Rosenthal tweets that the club is still kicking around scenarios with the Dodgers. (We previously rounded up the rumors on that match here, here, and here.) It turns out that the clubs are discussing scenarios involving Matt Kemp, along with a host of other previously rumored players, in what are quite obviously wide-ranging talks. No deal is close, says Rosenthal, though it certainly appears as if both teams believe they match up well on paper on a deal that would, in conjunction with some other pieces, send an expensive outfielder to Cincinnati and deliver the hefty Homer Bailey contract out west. It’ll be fascinating to see whether something comes together in these talks — or, frankly, any of the many others being conducted by the Cincinnati and Los Angeles organizations.
- We heard yesterday about the latest in the Rockies‘ search for a big bat, and Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post updates the situation. Edwin Encarnacion of the Indians is a “legitimate target,” per the report, though GM Jeff Bridich has indicated that Wil Myers of the division-rival Padres is not. The Colorado organization is obviously looking to come away from the offseason with at least one significant offensive upgrade, though as yet it’s not clear whether the team has really narrowed its focus or is still canvassing the market in search of value.
Mets Rumors: Sanchez, Jones, McCutchen, Lagares
Rumors about a discussed three-team trade between the Mets, Marlins, and Yankees set the baseball world abuzz on Monday, though most recent reports have cast those talks are much more speculative in nature. If Mets fans were stunned at the idea of Noah Syndergaard potentially going to the Yankees as part of those three-team rumors, how would Yankees fans feel about Gary Sanchez going to Citi Field? The Athletic’s Marc Carig (Twitter link) reports that one of the many permutations of the Mets/Yankees talks saw Sanchez becoming the Mets’ new catcher. It isn’t known if the Marlins were involved in this scenario, or if it would’ve resulted in J.T. Realmuto or Syndergaard going to the Yankees, but whispers continue to swirl that the Yankees could be looking for a change at catcher, no matter how firmly GM Brian Cashman has continued to stand by Sanchez.
Even if it involves a rare trade with a crosstown rival, it seems clear that new Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen is certainly looking at every possibility to upgrade his roster. Some more Mets-related rumblings…
- Adam Jones and his representatives have opened a line of communication with the Mets, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (Twitter links). (Puma initially reported the sides had met face to face, but later retracted that aspect of the discussions.) With Yoenis Cespedes a health-related question mark for 2019, the Mets are looking at Jones and other right-handed hitting outfielders. Jones is hitting the open market for the first time in his career after spending the last 11 seasons with the Orioles.
- Andrew McCutchen was another name on the Mets’ list, according to Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link), though at a much lower price tag than the $50MM deal McCutchen received from the Phillies.
- The Mets already have a right-handed hitting outfield option in the form of Juan Lagares, though MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter) hears that the Mets have been trying to find a trade partner for Lagares. 2018 was a lost year for the defensive specialist, as a torn plantar plate in his left big toe resulted in season-ending surgery after just 30 games. Given the injury and the $9.5MM owed to Lagares in salary next season, the outfielder will be a tough sell in trade talks, unless New York eats some money or deals him for another bad-fit type of contract.
Reds Interested In J.T. Realmuto
3:38pm: The Reds are still talking to the Marlins about Realmuto but aren’t including Senzel in the trade negotiations, Jon Heyman tweets.
1:34pm: Yet another suitor has emerged for J.T. Realmuto, as SiriusXM’s Craig Mish (Twitter link) reports that the Reds “have jumped into” talks for the Marlins catcher. It isn’t a new interest, however, as the Miami Herald’s Clark Spencer hears that Cincinnati has been interested in Realmuto “for a while.” Current Reds catcher Tucker Barnhart and outfield prospect Taylor Trammell have been mentioned as possible candidates to go back to Miami in the deal, according to Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman (via Twitter).
Cincinnati has been linked to a number of big names in trade and free agent speculation this winter, with their focus largely aimed at pitching but also such notable position players as A.J. Pollock, Yasiel Puig, and Ender Inciarte. Acquiring a catcher, however, would count as something of an unexpected move on the Reds’ part, since Barnhart was signed to a four-year extension just in September 2017. As Realmuto is arguably the best catcher in baseball, there’s obvious upgrade potential for Cincinnati, and adding such a star player with just two years of remaining control further indicates the Reds’ willingness to make a quick return to contention.
Never an above-average hitter, Barnhart slashed .248/.328/.372 last season, which represented a dip from his 2017 production. Defensively, Barnhart continued to have some of the lowest framing rankings of any catcher in baseball (as per StatCorner and Baseball Prospectus), and his once-elite throwing arm also took a hit, as Barnhart threw out just under 24% of all baserunners trying to steal on him last season. On the plus side, Barnhart continued to draw high marks for his pitch-blocking abilities.
Barnhart is owed $10.25MM in guaranteed money over the next three seasons (including a $500K buyout of a $7.5MM option for 2022), so he’s still be a very affordable piece to solidify Miami’s catching situation if he was part of the Realmuto trade package. Trammell is a longer-term piece, and the type of blue chip prospect the Marlins have been seeking in exchange for their All-Star catcher.
Trammell is a consensus top-50 prospect in all of baseball, ranked as the second-best prospect (behind Nick Senzel) in the Reds’ system. MLB.com is most bullish on Trammell, ranking him 17th on its top 100 list. Drafted 35th overall in 2016, Trammell is regarded as an excellent athlete with outstanding speed, and a developing approach at the plate. The 21-year-old showed improved contact skills and plate discipline in his third pro season, and MLB.com’s scouting report believes Trammell will develop more power as he ages.
Dodgers “Actively” Attempting To Trade Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp
TODAY: Aside from Puig, the Dodgers and Reds have also discussed Alex Wood in trade talks, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets, though Feinsand’s source says “nothing serious at this point” has developed.
TUESDAY, 10:53pm: The Mets aren’t in on Puig, Andy Martino of SNY tweets.
10:27pm: The Dodgers are “actively” attempting to trade either or both of Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Los Angeles would presumably have a much easier time moving the mercurial Puig, who’s the younger, less expensive and better of the two outfielders.
The 28-year-old Puig is projected to make an affordable $11.3MM in 2019, his last season of team control, and is reportedly “open” to playing for another club after developing a distrust of Dodgers management in 2018. The right-handed Puig has fallen flat against left-handed pitchers in back-to-back years, but nevertheless, he didn’t like that the Dodgers limited his playing time versus southpaws in 2018. Despite that, Puig still turned in another quality offensive season, hitting .267/.327/.494 (123 wRC+) with 23 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 444 plate appearances. Since then, the Indians, Mets and Reds have been connected to Puig.
Kemp, 34, was similarly effective at the plate in 2018, as he bounced back from a rough 2017 in Atlanta to bat .290/.338/.481 (122 wRC+) with 21 long balls in 506 PAs. However, Kemp tailed off in the second half of the season, continued to struggle in the outfield and is due an unreasonable $21.5MM next year. The Dodgers figure to have trouble dealing Kemp, then, unless they eat a large portion of his salary or swap him for another team’s undesirable contract.
Jettisoning one or both of the Puig-Kemp duo would still leave the Dodgers with other outfield-capable players in Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, Andrew Toles and high-end prospect Alex Verdugo. Plus, given the Dodgers’ ability to spend, they may add to the group by signing Bryce Harper, the best, most expensive outfielder available in free agency. Incidentally, the Dodgers reportedly offered Puig to the Nationals for Harper at last summer’s trade deadline.