Indians “Will Listen” To Trade Proposals On Key Veterans
The Indians remain in a highly competitive stance coming out of the 2018 season, particularly in an exceedingly weak overall American League Central division. After three-straight divisional titles, the organization still has one of the game’s best — and most affordable — core talent groups.
Still, there are plenty of needs on the roster and seemingly less resources to utilize to fulfill them. The club has in recent years both committed salary and dealt well-regarded prospects to supplement its fantastic bunch of stars.
Given this state of affairs, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (Twitter link), the Indians “will listen to trade offers” involving key veteran players. He specifically cites top hurlers Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, along with pricey veterans such as Edwin Encarnacion, Yan Gomes, and Jason Kipnis, as theoretical trade chips.
Importantly, and unsurprisingly, the club’s two still-youthful, amply controllable stars — Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor — will remain off limits. There’s certainly little reason for the Indians even to contemplate moves involving those players, whose contract rights are among the most valuable in the entire sport.
The most interesting element of this report, undoubtedly, is the possibility of the Indians offering up some of their top-flight pitching talent. Kluber and Carrasco are both excellent pitchers, but they are also signed to highly appealing contracts. The former, a perennial Cy Young contender, can be controlled through 2021 for as little as $30.5MM (though his 2020 and 2021 options can rise in value based upon his Cy placement). The latter, who’s also a top-10 starter over the past three seasons, will pitch for just $9.75MM next and little more in 2020 (his option, too, can be boosted based on the voting).
There’s no specific mention of righty Trevor Bauer, who emerged to take a place alongside his more-accomplished rotation mates. He’s just as plausible a candidate to be moved from an outside perspective, though, given that he’s down to two more years of arbitration control. Bauer is the most youthful of the three, but doesn’t figure to be an extension candidate given his stated preference never to agree to a multi-year deal. Still, he’s projected to earn a bargain $11.6MM for 2019 with one more arb year to go thereafter.
Any of these three pitchers would be hotly pursued this winter, because there just aren’t many alternatives. As our recent Market Snapshot series discussed, the trade market doesn’t seem to offer much in the way of high-end pitching– at least at affordable rates of pay. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Madison Bumgarner do not appear particularly likely even to be discussed in trades. Zack Greinke is still good, but his remaining obligation of $95.5MM is more than it cost the Dodgers to retain Clayton Kershaw earlier today. Meanwhile, the free agent market has a few talented hurlers on offer, but that’ll entail long-term commitments and much greater financial risk.
For some organizations, the possibility of landing one of the Indians pitchers would be a dream scenario. Of course, there’s little question that the Cleveland organization will demand a princely sum. Given its near-term ambitions, far-away prospects likely won’t headline a deal. Instead, the Indians are sure to demand high-quality players that can step right into the lineup while also providing greater long-term value than the starters who’d be dealt. While the Indians may be willing to stake a bet on their ability to find good innings from within, at least sufficient to come out ahead of the divisional opponents, it’s hard to look past the fact that the American League features a few teams that have aggregated an awful lot of talent. Rolling the dice on other hurlers (Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Adam Plutko, Danny Salazar) could be a viable strategy, but only if the Indians can secure young players they truly believe in with a swap.
As for the other players on the Indians roster that could be moved, it seems reasonable to suppose that cost-savings would be a leading motivator. Encarnacion can still swing the bat, but he wouldn’t command his remaining obligation ($25MM, including a 2021 option buyout) on the open market. Gomes rebounded with the bat in 2018, but is earning a relatively hefty $7MM, plus $2MM in buyouts on a pair of options ($9MM and $11MM, respectively) that seem unlikely to be exercised. (Fellow backstop Roberto Perez also receives mention from Olney, though he’s much cheaper and his control runs further into the future. He also struggled notably in 2018.) No doubt the club would like to find a taker for some of the $17MM still owed Kipnis ($2.5MM of which is in a buyout), but other organizations would only stake so much on a rebound. First baseman Yonder Alonso ($8MM salary plus $1MM buyout on 2020 option) would also seem a hypothetical possibility.
All things considered, there are quite a few fascinating possibilities to consider. Elite young position-player talent and/or cost savings seem clearly to be in mind here for the Indians. It may require a bit of a tightrope walk to pull things off, but the market situation seems generally favorable to the attempt.
7 Players Receive Qualifying Offers
Today marked the deadline for players to receive one-year qualifying offers at this year’s rate of $17.9MM. This year, a record-low seven players were issued qualifying offers.
In past years, no fewer than nine players have received qualifying offers. That’s how many were extended offers in the first (2012) and most recent (2017) seasons under the system. On the high side, twenty players received qualifying offers in 2015. But that was also the first year in which any players accepted the one-year offer, which may itself have had an impact on future teams deciding whether to issue it. At the end of the day, of course, the actual players and teams involved matter most, and that can vary quite a bit from year to year based on a wide variety of factors.
New rules went into effect last winter, so you’ll want to review those to understand how the process works. Those rules likely will continue to dampen the use of the QO on the margins, both through the reduction of draft compensation for issuing teams and by the prohibition on multiple QOs for the same player. Of course, it’s worth bearing in mind that every free agent class is different — and that every team situation is as well.
Here are this year’s free agents who were extended a qualifying offer by their teams (in alphabetical order):
- Patrick Corbin, SP, Diamondbacks (announced)
- Yasmani Grandal, C, Dodgers (post)
- Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals (link)
- Dallas Keuchel, SP, Astros (link)
- Craig Kimbrel, RP, Red Sox (link)
- A.J. Pollock, OF, Diamondbacks (announced)
- Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, Dodgers (post)
Several players that were discussed as QO candidates ended up being bypassed — which, generally, is a good thing for their earning power in free agency. Charlie Morton (Astros; post) is the most surprising, with Michael Brantley (Indians; post) and DJ LeMahieu (Rockies; post) among the other conceivable candidates who won’t be weighing offers. Of course, several other prominent players are ineligible to receive a QO because they were traded mid-season (e.g., Manny Machado) or had previously received one (e.g., Nelson Cruz).
Dodgers Announce New Deal With Clayton Kershaw
The Dodgers have officially struck a new deal with star lefty Clayton Kershaw. It’s a reported three-year, $93MM pact that does not include any new opt-out opportunities — but does have significant incentives.
Kershaw will earn $31MM in each year of the contract. The contract will include some significant incentive pay, allowing him to tack on $1MM each time he reaches 24, 26, 28, and 30 starts — meaning he can add $4MM in each season he’s at full health. Kershaw will also earn $1.5MM if he receives a Cy Young Award or $500K for a top-three finish.
This new deal was formalized just before Kershaw was to make a final decision on his preexisting contract. That pact, signed before the 2014 season, gave him the right to opt out of the remaining two years and $65MM. Rather than testing free agency, and perhaps considering alternative destinations, the veteran southpaw will remain with the only organization he has known as a professional.
This deal will only tack on a single season with $28MM in new money, which may seem light for a pitcher of Kershaw’s accomplishments. On the other hand, he has not been his previously peerless self over the past three campaigns. Kershaw will turn 31 before the start of the 2019 season and has only averaged 162 frames annually since the start of 2016. Given that he obviously preferred to remain with the Dodgers, perhaps it’s not terribly surprising that he’ll sign on for another year at a premium rate of pay but without obtaining a significant new term of years.
At the same time, it’s clearly a rather appealing agreement from the Dodgers’ perspective, particularly since they will only be on the hook through his age-33 campaign. Kershaw remains one of the game’s more productive starters, after all, and his immense talent base is impossible to ignore. In every season from 2011 through 2014, Kershaw led the National League in ERA and WHIP. He was just as dominant in all respects in the two ensuing seasons, though 2016 was when back issues became a problem.
More recently, as back ailments have continued to pop up, Kershaw’s peripherals have slipped. He has been somewhat more prone to the long ball, in particular. Plus, his fastball velocity dipped notably in 2018, landing at 91.4 mph. Even still, Kershaw has provided 336 1/3 innings of 2.52 ERA ball, over 53 starts, since the beginning of the 2017 season.
To compensate for the loss of heat, Kershaw has relied far more heavily than ever before on his slider, while maintaining his occasional use of a big hook. Regaining some fizz on the fastball would certainly go a long way toward Kershaw regaining his mastery, though it seems reasonable to believe he can continue to produce quality results even if that’s not in the offing.
Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links) first reported the deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links) had financial details.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Astros Claim Chris Herrmann
The Astros have claimed catcher/outfielder Chris Herrmann off waivers from the Mariners, per an announcement from the Houston organization.
Herrmann, 30, is eligible for arbitration and projected by MLBTR to receive a $1.5MM salary. Whether he makes it through the non-tender deadline on the Houston roster remains to be seen, but he’ll obviously be considered as a possibility.
Soon to turn 31, Herrmann has had an interesting career to this point. Capable of lining up behind the dish, in the corner outfield, and at first base, he can be an interesting roster piece when he delivers enough offensive punch.
Herrmann was a light-hitting reserve catcher with the Twins before landing with the Diamondbacks and turning in a big (albeit brief) showing with the bat in 2016. That all disappeared in the following season. In the 2018 campaign, though, he hit well at Triple-A and then turned in a solid .237/.322/.421 output in 87 plate appearances with Seattle.
Rays Outright Andrew Kittredge, Vidal Nuno
The Rays have outrighted right-hander Andrew Kittredge and lefty Vidal Nuno from their 40-man roster after both cleared waivers, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links). The former was assigned to Triple-A while the latter has elected free agency.
Kittredge, 28, suffered mightily in the majors in 2018, getting torched for 33 earned runs in 38 1/3 innings. He fared much better at Triple-A, however, and has generally impressed of late in the upper minors. It seems reasonably likely he’ll get another shot at some point if a need arises.
As for Nuno, the 31-year-old was quite effective in his brief time in the majors, allowing just six earned runs in 33 innings over 17 appearances. He also had a solid showing in a starting role at Triple-A. While the Rays obviously did not want to commit to keeping him around, plenty of other teams will be glad to give him a look in camp in 2019.
Mets Outright Conlon, Montero, Evans, Callahan
The Mets have outrighted four players from their 40-man roster, per a club announcement. Lefty P.J. Conlon was assigned to Triple-A after clearing waivers, while Rafael Montero, Phillip Evans, and Jamie Callahan also cleared but are all now free agents.
Conlon, who’ll soon turn 25, is a rarity as a Belfast-born big leaguer. He had a rough all-around campaign in 2018 despite reaching the majors, with poor results there and at Triple-A. However, the southpaw has had greater success previously in the minors and could still have a chance to reestablish himself.
Of these players, Montero certainly has the most name recognition. Once considered a future rotation stalwart, his career had largely stalled out before he underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of the 2017 campaign.
Callahan is another righty with some former prospect notoriety. He was a second-round pick in 2012, and had some successes in the minors after moving to a relief role. After a brief 2017 call-up, though, Callahan lost almost all of his 2018 season to shoulder surgery.
Evans has spent his entire career with New York to this point and saw MLB action in each of the past two seasons. A versatile defender who has plenty of experience at shortstop, Evans will mostly be considered as utility infield depth. He did launch a career-high 14 home runs in only 245 Triple-A plate appearances in 2018, though, which could increase his appeal to other organizations.
Cubs Outright Gore, Freeman; Claim Jack Reinheimer From Mets
The Cubs announced today that they have outrighted outfielder Terrance Gore and infielder Mike Freeman from the 40-man roster. Meanwhile, the club has added infielder Jack Reinheimer via waiver claim from the Mets.
Gore and Freeman were each added to the Chicago 40-man owing to late-season considerations. The former is a standout baserunner, the latter a quality defender. Both players appear to qualify as minor-league free agents.
Reinheimer, meanwhile, is a 26-year-old utilityman who is capable of lining up at shortstop. He showed some life at the plate in a 16-game run with the Mets’ top affiliate late last year, though he has mostly been a palatable-but-unexciting hitter at the Triple-A level, with a .278/.343/.371 slash in 1,376 total plate appearances.
Dodgers To Issue Qualifying Offer To Hyun-Jin Ryu
The Dodgers have extended a qualifying offer to left-handed starter Hyun-Jin Ryu, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). He’ll have ten days to decide whether to accept the one-year, $17.9MM offer.
While all of the other qualifying offer recipients were fairly straightforward cases, it was hardly clear that Ryu would receive one. But the Los Angeles organization has shown time and again that it is not afraid of risking money on talented pitchers who come with health questions, so they have decided to stake a hefty pile of cash on a player they originally signed out of Korea six seasons ago.
Since coming to Los Angeles, Ryu has been steadily excellent — when healthy. He owns a career 3.20 ERA in the majors, but hasn’t yet cracked 600 total innings because of significant shoulder and elbow surgeries along with a groin tear. In the 2018 campaign, Ryu recorded 82 1/3 frames of 1.97 ERA ball, with an appealing mix of 89 strikeouts and just 15 walks backing the results.
Given the health history, the 31-year-old Ryu may well consider taking the offer. If not, he’ll enter the free-agent market in search of a contract that likely won’t pay him quite at that annual rate, but could certainly included much more total guaranteed money. Of course, his market would be harmed to some extent by the fact that a signing team would need to surrender draft compensation to add him.
Ultimately, the Dodgers will end the day having issued qualifying offers to two players: Ryu and Yasmani Grandal. The club unquestionably would have had another in Clayton Kershaw, but locked him up with a new deal before the deadline for him to exercise an opt-out clause.
Astros Not Expected To Issue Charlie Morton Qualifying Offer
The Astros are not planning to issue a qualifying offer to right-hander Charlie Morton, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). That’s a rather surprising turn of events for the veteran hurler, who has excelled over the past two seasons in Houston.
What’s most interesting about this news is that it would appear to suggest the Astros are ready to move on. That’s not entirely clear from this decision alone, to be sure, but it seems from an outside perspective that Morton would be a good buy at $17.9MM for a single season. Given his stated uncertainty about pitching much longer, and his interest in returning to Houston, Morton may well have been a candidate to accept a QO.
This call could, then, open the door for a few other teams to get in on Morton. He has made clear he’d like to land in the mid-Atlantic, owing to family considerations. If that preference holds, then most of the contending teams on the eastern seaboard figure to place calls. It certainly doesn’t hurt that Morton will now evidently be available without the need to surrender draft compensation.
Rangers Decline Club Options Over Chirinos, Fister, Moore, Perez
The Rangers have declined club options over catcher Robinson Chirinos and pitchers Doug Fister, Matt Moore, and Martin Perez. That’s a surprising move on the veteran backstop, though all three hurlers seemed destined to be sent onto the open market.
The Texas organization has also announced a long list of players who were outrighted from the 40-man roster. Austin Bibens-Dirkx, Clayton Blackburn, Brandon Mann, Carlos Perez, and Ryan Rua are all weighing outright assignments after seemingly clearing waivers.
Chirinos, 34, had seemed a fairly easy choice to remain behind the dish in Texas. His option had risen in value to $4.5MM due to plate-appearance escalators, Joel Sherman of the New York Post notes on Twitter, but the team will pay him $1MM just to walk away.
While Chirinos is not noted for his skill behind the dish — in particular, he slipped to dreadful framing ratings in 2018 — he’s a highly respected player. And he also has consistently delivered much more offensive than the average catcher, with a .233/.324/.438 career slash and 35 home runs over the 735 plate appearances he has accrued since the start of 2017.
All three pitchers will be looking for bounceback opportunities after forgettable seasons. Fister will receive a $500K buyout; his option was priced at $4.5MM. The Moore deal included a $750K buyout, which he’ll take home in lieu of a $10MM payday. Perez, meanwhile, gets $1MM in total buyouts as the club passes on its chance to keep him in 2019 ($7.5MM) and 2020 ($9MM).