The MLB Offseason Begins
The 2018 season came to a satisfying close last night as Steve Pearce and David Price delivered the knockout punches to Clayton Kershaw and the NL Champion Dodgers. The 2018 Red Sox add to a remarkable run of champions from this century of baseball: from Bob Brenly’s Diamondbacks toppling the Yankee dynasty on Luis Gonzalez‘s floater (2001), to the every-other-year dominance of Buster Posey’s Giants (2010, 2012, 2014), to the improbably-long World Series droughts ended by the Boston Red Sox (2004), Chicago White Sox (2005) and Chicago Cubs (2016); the losingest franchise in history won a title (Phillies, 2008), and we even saw a small-market cinderella sneak one past the powerhouses (Royals, 2015). But the most impressive feat of the 21st century might be the remarkable turnaround in Boston since John Henry’s ownership group took over in 2002. The perennially-underdog Red Sox have morphed into a certified juggernaut with World Series victories in 2004, 2007, 2013, and now: 2018.
Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox deserve a ton of credit for using every avenue of team building available to them in putting together this World Series roster. They formed an incredible nucleus of homegrown offensive talent, namely: 7th overall selection in the 2015 draft Andrew Benintendi, 40th overall selection in the 2011 draft Jackie Bradley Jr., and likely AL MVP Mookie Betts, who was a 5th round selection in 2011. Postseason stalwart Rafael Devers was signed as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic, as was Xander Bogaerts, who signed out of Aruba. David Price was their big free agent signing of the 2015 season, while Chris Sale came to Boston from Chicago for a quartet of minor leaguers. Even this season, en route to a franchise-record 108 wins, Boston never rested on its laurels, bolstering its roster with the mid-season acquisitions of Nathan Eovaldi and World Series MVP Steve Pearce.
Amazingly, Bogaerts was the only active player on both the 2013 and 2018 World Series rosters, so while congratulations are in store for the Boston Red Sox, Dombrowski and company won’t have long to relish in their newest conquest. Baseball’s other 29 teams won’t allow it. Campaigns to thwart a repeat in Boston launch around baseball today as the focus turns to 2019 and dreams of future champions. As the offseason kicks off, here are a few key dates to keep in mind…
- Oct. 29: Commencement of a five-day, exclusive negotiation window that teams have with their own free agents
- Oct. 31: Deadline for players with opt-out clauses (most notably, Clayton Kershaw) to exercise those provisions.
- Nov. 2*: The deadline for MLB clubs to formally issue one-year qualifying offers (valued at $17.9MM this offseason) to free agents is 5:00pm ET. Those players will have 10 days to weigh the offers and can negotiate with other clubs during that 10-day window. After that 5pm deadline, all free agents are eligible to begin negotiating with other teams.
- Nov. 6-8: General Managers’ meetings in Carlsbad, CA
- Nov. 12: Deadline for players to accept or reject qualifying offers.
- Nov. 20: Deadline for teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft.
- Nov. 30: Deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players.
- Dec. 9-13: Winter Meetings in Las Vegas.
- Dec. 13: Rule 5 draft takes place on the final day of the Winter Meetings.
- Jan. 11: Arbitration exchange day — the date on which teams and players must exchange filing numbers for arbitration. Hearings, if necessary, typically begin in early February.
- March 28, 2019: Opening Day! Baseball is back.
Names like Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Patrick Corbin, Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel and Andrew Miller headline the 2018-19 class of MLB free agents. We’ll be running our Top 50 Free Agent rankings, which will include contract projections and predictions as to where each of the 50 will sign. For now, get yourself acquainted with the free agent possibilities by following our 2018-19 Market Snapshot Series.
Keep an eye out for the remainder of MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series as we preview the decisions that each of the league’s 30 teams will face over the winter and some of the routes they could take to Opening Day 2019. No matter who or how you follow, we at MLBTR will be here every step of the way to walk you through another exciting hot stove season, so stick with us as we prepare for a frenetic few months of offseason activity!
*The original version of this post mistakenly stated the qualifying offer issue/decision dates as November 3rd and 13th.
Free Agency Notes: Harper, McCutchen, Yanks, D. Holland, Giants
Agent Scott Boras told Michael Kay and Don La Greca of 98.7 FM ESPN New York earlier this week that Nationals outfielder and pending free agent Bryce Harper has already picked his team for 2019, which drew plenty of attention on social media Sunday. “We know who the team is. It’s already completed and done, but Bryce has told me that he wanted to tell you personally,” Boras said (video via the YES Network). However, if you’re of the belief Boras was being facetious, you’re correct. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports (Twitter links) that Boras was indeed joking. Anything else would’ve been a major surprise, as the 26-year-old Harper won’t even be allowed to discuss money with anyone but the Nationals until five days after the end of the World Series. Whether Harper ultimately re-signs with the Nats or heads elsewhere during the coming months, there’s no doubt he’ll land one of the richest contracts in baseball history.
Here’s more on a couple other players who are on the brink of reaching the open market:
- Outfielder Andrew McCutchen was highly productive for the Yankees after they acquired him from San Francisco in August, but it doesn’t appear he’ll return to the Bronx next season. The Yankees aren’t expected to re-sign McCutchen, per George A. King III of the New York Post. Even without McCutchen, New York would still have several other high-profile outfielders in Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Clint Frazier and Jacoby Ellsbury. The Bombers could also pursue Harper, and they’ll have to make a decision on Brett Gardner‘s $12.5MM club option.
- With left-hander Derek Holland hoping to return to the Giants in 2019, it “could make a lot of sense” for the club to offer him a two-year contract, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports California writes. Holland was unable to secure a guaranteed contract last winter, when the Giants inked him to a minors deal in a move that worked out beautifully for the team. The 32-year-old Holland ended up pitching to a 3.57 ERA/3.87 FIP across a San Francisco-leading 171 1/3 innings, likely setting himself up for a better payday than the $2MM he raked in this season.
Reactions To Mets’ GM Decision
The Mets have found their new general manager, soon-to-be former player agent Brodie Van Wagenen, whom no one would have expected them to hire at the outset of their search. Here are a few reactions to the decision:
- New York made a mistake selecting Van Wagenen, who’s no more qualified to be the team’s GM than to serve as its first baseman, Buster Olney of ESPN opines (subscription required). Because of Van Wagenen’s tenure as an agent, there are conflict-of-interest concerns from Major League Baseball, the MLBPA and club management – all of which regard the hiring as “bizarre and inevitably problematic,” Olney writes. For instance, considering Van Wagenen has acted as the agent for the Mets’ two aces – Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard – Olney wonders if he’ll be able to represent the team’s interests instead of his ex-clients’. Further, Olney cites one club exec who’s wary of Van Wagenen because of the strong comments he made during last winter’s free-agent freeze, when he suggested teams were colluding against the players. Beyond that, one talent evaluator tells Olney the Mets made a “very strange” choice, in part because Van Wagenen won’t get the necessary time to adjust to being a GM, and that banking on this move to work is “like expecting the impossible.” The Mets should have made a safer selection and gone with one of the many qualified front office execs in the majors, Olney argues, pointing out that Van Wagenen now has to learn on the job while dealing with the Mets’ much-maligned ownership.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post echoes Olney in reporting that league officials and the union have issues with Van Wagenen’s hiring. Interestingly, both sides agree Van Wagenen should not be involved in arbitration cases for deGrom or Syndergaard during the upcoming winter, according to Sherman.
- While there are clearly strong opinions regarding the Mets’ pick, it’s anyone’s guess how it’ll actually work out. Van Wagenen’s not the first agent to take over as a major league GM – both Joe Garagiola Jr. and Dave Stewart did so in the past (each with the Diamondbacks), and Sherman discussed the transition with the two earlier this weekend. Garagiola admitted his background as an agent led to “skepticism” from his GM colleagues, saying: “Those first few GM meetings I went to, I was not greeted with open arms.” Stewart offered a similar sentiment regarding GMs, saying, “They look at agents as the dark side and agents look at them as the dark side.” Of course, as Sherman notes, both Garagiola and Stewart did have previous front office experience when they became GMs. That’s not the case for Van Wagenen, which could make his new career all the more difficult. On the other hand, Garagiola did name an advantage to going from a player representative to a GM: “Without question the biggest asset [brought to the GM job] is in dealing with agents in terms of contracts and negotiating for free agents. Many of the agents were contemporaries. My awareness of what the job entails gave me credibility with them.” For more from Garagiola and Stewart, check out Sherman’s full piece.
Poll: Clayton Kershaw’s Future
With Los Angeles staring at a 3-1 deficit against Boston in the World Series, not only will the Dodgers’ season end if they lose Game 5 on Sunday, but it could also mark left-hander Clayton Kershaw‘s final outing with the club. The three-time National League Cy Young Award winner will take the ball hoping to keep the Dodgers’ season alive, but if the team loses, he’ll face questions about his future immediately after the game.
While Kershaw’s contract – the franchise-record seven-year, $215MM extension he signed in 2014 – includes another two guaranteed seasons and $65MM, it also features an opt-out clause he could trigger in the coming days. Should he take advantage of that, the 30-year-old would easily become the most accomplished pitcher without a deal for 2019.
However, in the event Kershaw reaches free agency, he would be doing so off three straight injury-shortened seasons, during which he averaged 162 innings per year. That’s a far cry from the 215-inning mean he established from 2010-15. This past regular season, Kershaw spun 161 1/3 frames of high-quality work, logging a 2.73 ERA/3.19 FIP, though there were some alarming signs along the way.
Although just about every starter would be thrilled with the production Kershaw has offered this year, his regular-season ERA was his highest since 2010, while he has only managed a worse FIP once (as a rookie in 2008). Moreover, Kershaw has battled through a decline in velocity, perhaps thanks in part to injuries. Kershaw went to the disabled list one time each for back problems – which have been a significant issue for him in recent seasons – and biceps tendinitis.
Even though we know Kershaw is in fact mortal, he’s still in position to forgo the remaining $65MM on his contract. Expectations are that Kershaw will indeed vacate what’s left of the pact, at which point it would be up to the Dodgers and the seven-time All-Star’s reps at Excel Sports Management to find common ground. For what it’s worth, both Kershaw and the Dodgers have publicly expressed a reverence for one another.
“[Kershaw] should be a Dodger for life,” owner Mark Walter said in March.
There’s certainly a chance that will come to fruition. But it’s worth keeping in mind that, in spite of their deep pockets, the Dodgers haven’t handed out a single nine-figure guarantee since president Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi took the reins in October 2014. They may need to fork over that rich of a contract to keep Kershaw in the fold. As great as Kershaw has been, and as iconic as he is, that would mean splurging on a 30-something pitcher with upward of 2,200 major league innings under his belt (playoffs included) and a growing injury history.
While Kershaw is currently focused on helping spur a World Series comeback for the Dodgers, it’s clear he’ll end up as one of the game’s most fascinating storylines after the Fall Classic concludes. Either Kershaw will continue his remarkable career with the only franchise he has ever known, or the the future Hall of Famer will stun the baseball world by leaving the Dodgers behind in free agency. What do you expect to happen?
Will Clayton Kershaw be a Dodger in 2019?
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Yes 67% (14,372)
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No 33% (6,958)
Total votes: 21,330
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NPB/KBO Notes: Uehara, Kelly
Things are quiet in the majors as we await Game 5 of the World Series, so here’s the latest from a pair of Asian leagues…
- Reliever Koji Uehara saw his major league career end after the 2017 season, when he headed back to his native Japan to pitch for the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball. Now, after a season in which Uehara pitched to a 3.63 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 over 34 2/3 innings, the Giants are considering releasing the 43-year-old, according to the Japan Times. Uehara underwent left knee surgery on Tuesday, and if he’s able to bounce back from that, the Giants could re-sign him, per the report. Otherwise, considering his age, it’s possible the eight-time NPB All-Star has thrown his last pitch as a professional – even though the report indicates he’d like to continue playing. Uehara enjoyed an excellent major league career from 2009-17 as a member of a few teams – including the Red Sox, with whom he won a World Series in 2013 – posting a 2.66 ERA with 10.71 K/9, 1.46 BB/9, 95 saves and 81 holds in 480 2/3 frames. Those numbers are actually better than the stats Uehara has compiled with Yomiuri, the only Japanese team for which he has pitched. Across 11 seasons and 1,583 2/3 frames with the Giants, Uehara has notched a 3.02 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 1.2 BB/9.
- Merrill Kelly, a righty for SK Wyverns of the Korea Baseball Organization, has “been talked about as a possible MLB arm” for 2019, Sung Min Kim of The Athletic and River Ave Blues tweets. Kelly has been pitching in the KBO since 2015, but he did garner some minor league experience from 2010-14 as a member of the Rays, who chose him in the eighth round of the 2010 draft. At the time of Kelly’s selection, Baseball America (subscription required) wrote that he gets by “with a lot of funk and deception,” adding that he “profiles better as a reliever in pro ball.” Now 30, Kelly has parlayed his fastball-changeup-curveball repertoire into a solid career as a starter in the hitter-friendly KBO, where he has amassed at least 180 frames in three seasons and combined for a 3.86 ERA with 7.9 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9.
Reds Part Ways With Jim Riggleman
4:07pm: Pat Kelly, who was Cincinnati’s interim bench coach under Riggleman, is likely to return to the team’s minor league system, a source tells Nightengale. Kelly was the Reds’ Triple-A manager before joining Riggleman’s staff. He was among those who interviewed for the Reds’ managerial opening prior to Bell’s hiring.
2:22pm: The Reds won’t be keeping Jim Riggleman in the organization in 2019, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports (Twitter link). The interim manager for much of the 2018 season, Riggleman interviewed for the full-time job before the Reds hired David Bell as their next skipper earlier this week.
Riggleman has spent the last seven years within the Reds organization, managing at the Double-A and Triple-A levels, and then working as a third base coach and bench coach for the Major League team. He took the managerial reins on April 19 when Bryan Price was fired in the wake of a brutal 3-15 start to the season, and Riggleman did right the ship to some extent, leading Cincinnati to an even 45-45 record over the next 90 games. As the team faded down the stretch, however, Riggleman was left with a 64-80 record as skipper. Nonetheless, there still appeared to be a solid chance that Riggleman would lose the interim tag, as his performance reportedly impressed owner Robert Castellini and many in the Reds’ front office.
There was some speculation that Riggleman could remain with the Reds in some capacity, possibly as a minor league manager again or potentially even his old bench coach role (if the team had stayed in-house and hired John Farrell to manage). Instead, the 65-year-old will now look elsewhere to continue a coaching and managing career that has lasted since 1983. Riggleman is one of a select group who have managed five different Major League teams, with different stints running the dugouts for the Reds, Nationals, Mariners, Cubs, and Padres.
AL Notes: Rays, Miller, Allen, Orioles
The Rays‘ reputation for creative thinking is somewhat making the team a victim of its own success in 2018, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The Rays have already lost two members of their coaching staff to managerial jobs (Charlie Montoyo with the Blue Jays and Rocco Baldelli with the Twins), while senior VP Chaim Bloom was a finalist for the Mets’ GM job and has been mentioned as a possible candidate to run the Giants’ baseball operations department. For now, Tampa has two coaching vacancies to fill, though the responsibilities of Baldelli’s old infield coordinator role could be altered, as that job was specifically tailored for Baldelli’s skillset. Topkin wouldn’t be surprised to see at least one new coach from outside the organization hired, though the Rays do have a long track record of promoting from within the organization.
Some more from around the American League….
- Neither Andrew Miller or Cody Allen had a season to remember in 2018, though could those disappointing years actually make it more likely that one of the two relievers returns to the Indians bullpen in 2019? Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer explores the possibility as part of a reader mailbag, with the caveat that “this is a buyer beware situation even on a one-year deal.” Miller was hampered by multiple injuries en route to a 4.24 ERA over 34 innings for the Tribe last season, while Allen simply lacked consistency, posting a career-high 4.70 ERA over 67 frames. The prevailing wisdom had been that Cleveland wouldn’t be able to afford to re-sign either pitcher in free agency, though if either Miller or Allen was willing to take a one-year pillow contract (with an eye towards pitching better and then looking for a multi-year contract in the 2019-20 offseason), it’s possible the Tribe could be open to that type of short-term expenditure. The price tag will be an issue, of course, as Cleveland already has over $135MM in projected payroll for next season and still must address other needs this winter.
- The Orioles are parting ways with several members of the organization, as The Baltimore Sun’s Jon Meoli and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com were among those to report the changes. Triple-A manager Ron Johnson, director of Dominican baseball operations Nelson Norman, East Coast scouting supervisor Kirk Fredriksson, special assistant Matt Haas, and area scout Dana Duquette didn’t have their contracts renewed for 2019. Senior advisor Joe McIlvaine and special assignment scout Wayne Britton also won’t be returning next season, Kubatko reports.
- In another piece from Kubatko, he speculates that left-hander Sean Gilmartin and outfielder John Andreoli could be candidates to be outrighted as the Orioles clear roster space in advance of the Rule 5 Draft. (Kubatko already reported that Jace Peterson has been told by the team that he’ll be placed on outright waivers.) Gilmartin posted a 3.00 ERA over 27 relief innings for Baltimore after signing a minor league deal last summer, and Kubatko speculates that the O’s could try re-signing Gilmartin after the Rule 5 Draft since the southpaw has potential as a multi-inning reliever. The 28-year-old Andreoli made his Major League debut last season, posting a .546 OPS over 67 PA with the Mariners and Orioles.
Orioles To Place Jace Peterson On Outright Waivers
The Orioles have told utilityman Jace Peterson that he will be placed on outright waivers, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports. The team is expected to try and re-sign Peterson after the non-tender deadline (November 30) and the Rule 5 Draft in December.
The move will free up a spot on the Orioles’ roster and also save the club a bit of money in arbitration costs. After earning $900K in 2018 in his first year of arbitration eligibility, Peterson was projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz for a raise up to $1.3MM for 2019. Rather than commit to such an amount, the Orioles could try to bring Peterson back on a less-expensive minor league deal or a split contract.
Peterson, 28, was claimed off waivers from the Yankees last April and ended up appearing in 93 games for Baltimore, batting .195/.308/.325 over 235 PA in the orange and black while seeing time as a second baseman, third baseman, corner outfielder, and even three games at shortstop. Peterson hasn’t hit much over his five MLB seasons, though his versatility makes him a useful bench asset, and he received some interest from multiple teams when available in April.
Minor MLB Transactions: 10/28/18
The latest minor league moves from around baseball…
- The Diamondbacks have re-signed first baseman Cody Decker and right-hander Kevin McCanna to minor league contracts and assigned them both to Triple-A Reno, as per the Reno affiliate’s official Twitter feed (links here). The 31-year-old Decker will return for his second season in Arizona’s organization, after hitting .261/.351/.503 over 191 combined PA at the Triple-A and Double-A levels in 2018. McCanna, 24, posted a 3.84 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and a 3.00 K/BB rate over 70 1/3 combined innings at A-ball and high-A ball, starting 13 of his 14 games before injuries sidelined him in late June.
Heyman’s Latest: Hamels, Smoak, Nunez, Bregman, Padres
The Cubs seem likely to pick up left-hander Cole Hamels‘ $20MM option for 2019, Jon Heyman of Fancred writes. The club could instead buy out Hamels for $6MM, a sum his previous team – the Rangers – would cover, though that would be a surprise in the wake of his second-half performance. After the Cubs acquired Hamels in late July, he pitched to a 2.36 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 over 76 1/3 innings. Thanks in part to Hamels’ excellent results over the final couple months of the season, Cubs president Theo Epstein recently called the 34-year-old a “breath of fresh air.”
Here’s more from Heyman’s latest column:
- Surprisingly, despite his quality production from 2017-18 and his reasonable price tag for next season, the Blue Jays aren’t certain to exercise first baseman Justin Smoak‘s option, according to Heyman. Toronto must decide whether to bring back Smoak for $8MM or cut him loose and pay $250K. But if the team’s uninterested in retaining Smoak, perhaps it’ll pick up the soon-to-be 32-year-old’s option and shop him to first base needy-clubs. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently took a look at several teams that could pursue a deal for the switch-hitting Smoak, who slashed .242/.350/.457 (121 wRC+) with 25 home runs in 594 PA this year.
- Red Sox infielder Eduardo Nunez is “likely” to exercise his $5MM player option, per Heyman. Nunez could otherwise opt out and receive $2MM, but he’d be doing so on the heels of a rough campaign (heroics in Game 1 of the World Series notwithstanding). The 31-year-old hit a meek .265/.289/.388 (78 wRC+) in 502 regular-season plate appearances and accounted for minus-0.4 fWAR – the sixth-worst mark among those who totaled at least 500 PA. Notably, Nunez had a much better campaign in 2017, but he was still unable to secure a large guarantee as a free agent last winter.
- Mets catcher Travis d’Arnaud is a non-tender candidate, Heyman relays. The oft-injured d’Arnaud is projected to earn $3.7MM in 2019, his last year of arbitration, but the Mets could deem that too pricey in the wake of another injury-shortened season. D’Arnaud, 29, suffered a partial UCL tear in early April, limiting him to four games. With d’Arnaud unavailable, the Mets ended up relying on Devin Mesoraco and Kevin Plawecki behind the plate. There’s also uncertainty with Mesoraco heading into the offseason, given that he’s a pending free agent.
- Astros superstar Alex Bregman is among those sticking with agent Brodie Scoffield, who recently left Legacy to start Tidal Sports Group, Heyman writes. The 24-year-old third baseman is coming off a tremendous season in which he hit .284/394/.532 (157 wRC+) with 31 home runs, more walks (96) than strikeouts (85) and 7.6 fWAR across 705 trips to the plate. Bregman’s in line to play his final pre-arb season in 2019.
- Some manager-needy teams recently requested interviews with Padres executive Moises Alou, but the 52-year-old spurned those overtures, Heyman reports. Alou, a big league outfielder from 1990-2008, joined San Diego’s front office in 2015. He doesn’t have any managerial experience, though it does run in his family. His father, Felipe Alou, managed the Expos (1992-2001) and Giants (2003-06) to a combined 1,033-1,021 record, and he took home NL Manager of the Year honors during the strike-shortened ’94 season.