MLBTR Poll: The State Of The Indians Bullpen
Cody Allen will be closing games for the Los Angeles Angels next season, but the long-time fixture of the Cleveland bullpen may still add some value to the Indians’ 2019 bullpen: as a scout. It was Allen who first brought Jon Edwards to the attention of the Cleveland front office after working out at the same facility as the right-hander, per the Athletic’s Zack Meisel. Edwards, 30, made 9 appearances for the Indians last season after making his way back to the game, missing all of 2017 and almost leaving baseball altogether. Now Edwards is one of the arms that manager Tito Francona will turn to as the Indians’ bullpen tries to make up for the loss of both Allen and Andrew Miller in free agency.
The glass half-full approach might look at the 2.9 WAR totaled by the Indians bullpen in 2018 and say there’s not all that much room to make up. Still, the bullpen unit earned 6.9 WAR in 2017 after fueling the Indians’ World Series run in 2016, and they’ve helped spark an evolution of the bullpen league-wide. It’s an uncertain unit this time around, with Edwards, Adam Cimber, Nick Goody, Dan Otero, Neil Ramirez and Tyler Olson the most established arms set to pitch in front of closer Brad Hand. Former starters Danny Salazar and Cody Anderson may get the Collin McHugh treatment if they can get healthy this season and contribute as McHugh did for the Astros last year. Salazar is a particularly interesting wrinkle as his career 10.51 K/9 could move even higher in shorter stints out of the pen. He was a top-3 pitcher in their rotation before getting injured. Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber may have usurped his spot in the rotation, but Salazar has the opportunity to be an impact arm where Cleveland needs the help most.
Newly-acquired youngsters Jefry Rodriguez and Chih-Wei Hu have added to the organization’s overall depth, and they’ll compete with veteran castoffs like James Hoyt, Justin Grimm, and A.J. Cole to claim the open spots in Cleveland’s pen. It’s a long season, and just as often as a veteran bullpener falls apart, a new stud develops out of nowhere. There’s a case to be made that the Indians collection of arms is more than enough to put together a dominant bullpen, it’s just unclear which 7-10 names are most likely to be a part of it. The Indians may feel that the risk of paying significant money to tired, veteran arms isn’t any more risky than relying on a large group of high-end hopefuls to develop confidence and dependability in the nine months from when pitchers and catchers report in February to the playoffs in October. There’s high-end potential in the names above, and they have another reason to be optimistic as well: top prospect Triston McKenzie has risen steadily through the system, and it’s not outside the realm of possibility that the 21-year-old could be ready for an Adam Wainwright/David Price style call up if he continues to succeed in Triple A.
Francona may cull together a functional group from the arms already in-house, but no matter how you slice it, it’s a far cry from the back-end dependability the AL Central champs have leaned on throughout this current run atop the division. There are other issues at hand for the Indians as well, who are facing a significant amount of roster churn. There’s a leadership void to fill around Francisco Lindor, and it’s unclear at this time who will step up, per Cleveland.com’s Paul Hoynes. Lindor certainly has the talent to be “the guy” in the clubhouse, but it’s tough for the best on-field producer to also shoulder the load of managing the clubhouse as a lone sheriff. Allen has been a big-time leader in the bullpen, and Rajai Davis a vocal veteran leader who will no longer be with the club as well. They may have more of a fight on their hands for the AL Central crown too, as the Twins added a ton of right-handed power as they look to rebound, and the White Sox rebuild is nearing a crescendo.
Even if they capture their fourth straight division title, the Indians will have a tough time surviving the playoff gauntlet in a top-heavy American League if they don’t get some reliability and shutdown firepower from their bullpen. The Yankees have not been shy about investing heavily in their bullpen for a couple of seasons, and the rest of the league is starting to follow suit, but as of right now, the Indians, as well as some other contenders like the Red Sox and Cubs, are holding steady with the arms they’ve got in-house. In the past it’s been unwise to invest in the bullpen, an area of notoriously fickle year-to-year performance, but the tide has turned and the Indians run the risk of seeming painfully out-of-step. The rotation remains stacked, but given that it only took one year, $8.5MM for LA to lock down Allen, it’s fair to wonder if the Indians are playing a little too fast and loose with their bullpen.
How do you feel about the current state of the Indians pen? (Link for app users).
How Should The Indians Feel About Their Bullpen?
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Cautiously Optimistic. Someone will step up. Happens every year. 43% (3,018)
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Panicked. Hand can't pitch every day. 41% (2,853)
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Good. Hand, Cimber, Salazar, and Otero are underrated. They'll be fine. 16% (1,130)
Total votes: 7,001
NL Central Notes: Cubs, Miley, Reyes
Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein held an interesting chat today with Waddle and Silvy of ESPN Chicago (audio link). He likened his desire to acquire a premium free agent to a second helping of dessert — of course, he wants it, but he just can’t have it — and says the organization still believes it can find improvement from its current roster. Epstein insists there’s positive energy within the friendly confines; despite the lack of roster activity, he says, the offseason has otherwise been a proactive one in which the entire organization has focused on hitting the ground running from the start of the present season. At the tail end of the talk, the veteran baseball executive also gives a detailed account of the organization’s stance on embattled shortstop Addison Russell. It’s well worth a listen, regardless of one’s general viewpoint on that subject.
Elsewhere in the division…
- The Brewers still have interest in bringing Wade Miley back to the organization, writes MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy in his latest inbox column, and Miley thoroughly enjoyed his time with the Milwaukee organization. However, Miley’s camp is still holding out for a multi-year deal, and the Brewers have a fairly large collection of arms from which to choose as it is. Jimmy Nelson, Jhoulys Chacin, Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Zach Davies, Chase Anderson, Junior Guerra and Adrian Houser are all options to start for Milwaukee. Given that depth, it seems that GM David Stearns is content to see if Miley’s price (or the price for any pitching target) comes down to a more palatable point.
- The Cardinals still don’t have a defined timeline regarding right-hander Alex Reyes‘ return from shoulder surgery, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The prized 24-year-old prospect has been throwing recently, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak tells Goold that Reyes is “long-tossing without limitation.” The expectation, per Mozeliak, is that Reyes will progress to mound work within the next two weeks. However, he’ll also have an “individualized build-up” in Spring Training, and his return to pitching in a game setting will be determined based on milestones within that personalized program. Reyes has long been touted as one of the game’s most promising arms, but he’s never reached 120 innings in any professional season. Given that he’s already had Tommy John surgery and now last year’s shoulder surgery, one can imagine the Cardinals will be particularly cautious in getting him back up to speed.
Ricky Romero Announces Retirement
Left-handed hurler Ricky Romero recently announced his retirement in an Instagram post that flew under our radar at the time. He hangs up his spikes at 34 years of age.
At one point, the former sixth-overall draft pick looked to be among the game’s better young pitchers — a quality rotation piece who could handle a big innings load, even if not an ace. But his career spun out in surprisingly quick and conclusive fashion, and he was never able to get it going again.
Upon breaking into the majors in 2009, Romero turned in a string of productive seasons, improving his bottom-line results as he went. He inked a $30.1MM extension in the midst of the 2010 campaign, a significant contract that nevertheless seemed destined to be a good one for the organization after the ensuing campaign.
Romero’s third season in the majors was his best — a 225-inning, 2.92 ERA gem in 2011. He earned an All-Star nod and placed tenth in the American League Cy Young voting. Though he was not then and never would be much of a strikeout pitcher, Romero induced loads of grounders (54.7%) and certainly seemed capable of continuing to deliver strong results for years to come.
Unfortunately, disaster struck in 2012. Romero pitched a full season, but that may not have been wise. As he discussed with Vice Sports more recently, he was battling through pain over the course of that season. Romero ended the year with a 5.77 ERA, an ugly combination of 6.2 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9, and lingering health issues — he ultimately required surgery for matching torn quad tendons — that he never fully recovered from.
As it turned out, Romero would only throw 7 1/3 MLB frames after the end of his age-27 season. The Blue Jays ended up cutting their losses and absorbing the remainder of the money they owed Romero. He ended up landing with the Giants in an effort to find himself, but never managed to gain traction during his three years with the organization. A brief run in the Mexican League also fizzled out.
As the above-linked piece documents, Romero had tried more recently to get on track by engaging a few trusted advisers and trying to get his flow back. Obviously, that attempt did not enable the southpaw to make it back to the major league hill, but it certainly can’t be said that he fell short for a lack of trying. MLBTR wishes Romero the best in his future undertakings.
Minor MLB Transactions: 1/18/19
Here are the day’s minor moves from around the league…
- The Pirates have outrighted righty Dario Agrazal to Triple-A after he cleared waivers, MLB.com’s Adam Berry tweets. A control-and-groundball-oriented hurler, the 24-year-old Agrazal has yet to move past the Double-A level. In his 85 2/3 innings at Altoona last year, he pitched to a 3.99 ERA with 5.5 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 along with a 49.6% groundball rate. Agrazal had been designated for assignment recently to open up a 40-man roster spot.
Earlier Transactions
- Per a team announcement, catcher Andrew Susac cleared waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Norfolk after being designated for assignment by the Orioles. Set to turn 29 in March, Susac was once one of baseball’s premier catching prospects but has only managed a .221/.283/.373 slash in 300 plate appearances at the MLB level to date. He did hit .256/.405/.456 in a smallish sample of 158 plate appearances in Triple-A last year and has a career .248/.350/.438 line through 927 PAs at that level. He’ll remain on hand in the O’s organization as a depth option.
- The Nationals announced that infielder Matt Reynolds has cleared waivers after being designated for assignment. He was sent outright to Triple-A Fresno. Reynolds made just 14 plate appearances with Washington last season and has spent the bulk of his career with the Mets, for whom he batted .228/.300/.351 in 226 PAs from 2016-17. The 28-year-old Reynolds can handle shortstop, second base and third base, and he’s a career .283/.350/.420 hitter in nearly 1600 Triple-A plate appearances (although most of those came in an extremely hitter-friendly setting with the Mets’ former Las Vegas affiliate in the Pacific Coast League).
- Right-hander Jonathan Aro is headed to the Braves on a minor league contract, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports (via Twitter). The 28-year-old hasn’t cracked a big league roster since 2016 and has only 11 MLB frames under his belt in all. However, Aro does have a career 3.14 ERA with 8.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and 0.6 HR/9 in 174 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level. He’s spent the past two seasons with the Triple-A affiliates for the Mariners (2017) and the Padres (2018).
Mystery Teams Reportedly Pursuing Manny Machado
9:25pm: Machado has held an in-person meeting with one of the mystery clubs “in recent days,” Martino tweets. The report also indicates that Machado is expected to choose the biggest contract offer he’s presented, with other factors evidently taking a back seat.
8:03pm: The presence or absence of so-called “mystery teams” — unidentified but active pursuers of a given player — has long been a subplot of the market for Manny Machado this winter. With the Phillies, White Sox, and (to a lesser extent) Yankees known to be involved in the hunt, the question is whether other organizations would quietly help drive the bidding.
Now, on the heels of some suggestive comments from Machado’s father (via Dominican journalist Hector Gomez, on Twitter), there’s clear reporting indicating that is the case. Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets that not only is there a mystery team chasing Machado, but that it’s presently the high bidder. Andy Martino of SNY.tv adds on Twitter that there are actually two such clubs in the mix.
While this news is certainly vague in one sense, in that it doesn’t indicate what teams are now involved, it certainly is being presented as being firmly rooted in reality. Some may be skeptical, but it has always made sense for certain clubs to prefer to make their pursuit a quiet one. And the truly hard-to-fathom aspect of the market to date has been the lack of more teams publicly chasing one of the game’s best players, who’s hitting the market at just 26 years of age.
Last we checked in on Machado, a few days back, his agent Dan Lozano was forced to publicly comment on reports of a middling offer from the White Sox. Indeed, the level of money that had been suggested — seven years, $175MM — hardly seems to match Machado’s value when considering his established track record, age, and past open-market contracts. In any event, it seems at a minimum that those numbers may not have represented a full picture of the level of the Chicago organization’s interest.
The latest news puts a much better spin on the outlook for Machado. If there are indeed a pair of mystery teams, in addition to the three known to have interest, then that leaves quite a few more landing spots for Lozano to explore — and, presumably, a fair bit more leverage to work with in trying to move Machado’s earning level northward.
Reds Pitcher Michael Lorenzen Preparing For Possible Outfield Role
Reds right-hander Michael Lorenzen is working out extensively as an outfielder this offseason in hopes of finding his way into an expanded, hybrid role in 2019, writes Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The organization appears to be open to the possibility of utilizing Lorenzen on the grass, though it’s as yet unclear how likely it is that he’ll ultimately do so in the regular season.
Lorenzen, 27, pitched to a 3.11 ERA with 6.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 0.67 HR/9 and a 50.2 percent ground-ball rate in 81 innings of relief last season. Lorenzen also emerged as a legitimate offensive weapon off the bench. A two-way star at Cal State Fullerton where he pitched and played center field, Lorenzen went 9-for-31 and belted four homers as a pinch-hitter for Cincinnati last season. That strong showing included an incredible run where he hit three pinch homers in a week’s time (video link), capped off by a grand slam.
First and foremost, Lorenzen is an important set-up/swingman option for a Cincinnati club that’s hoping to make strides in the season to come. He has his hands full already. Despite missing nearly two months to open the 2018 season, he ended up throwing 81 innings in 45 appearances, including three starts at the tail end of the season.
If Shohei Ohtani can do handle two-way duties, then perhaps Lorenzen should be given a shot. Stepping into the outfield defensively, though, would definitely represent a significant additional burden and avenue for risk. Ohtani did play the field in Japan, but was only utilized as a DH upon coming to the majors. That option isn’t available to the Reds, so they’ll need to put Lorenzen in the field at times if they want him to accrue any significant number of plate appearances.
Ultimately, it’s not clear whether it will prove all that useful for the Reds to utilize Lorenzen as a part-time outfielder. Beyond concerns with the possible impact on his pitching, the club is already fairly deep in outfield options (Jesse Winker, Scott Schebler, Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Phil Ervin). And there’s good reason to be skeptical of how Lorenzen will fare if exposed to MLB pitching more regularly, though he has certainly shown enough to make it tantalizing to see more. It’s anyone’s guess how he’ll look defensively, though Lorenzen certainly seems athletic enough to handle himself just fine.
It may be that the most sensible outcome, at least early on, would be to take advantage of the flexibility on a limited basis. There are all kinds of interesting game-situation strategies that new skipper David Bell might contemplate. If nothing else, Lorenzen could still see scattered pinch-hitting opportunities as he did last year. If it proves necessary, or Lorenzen proves worthy, then perhaps a few starts would even be appropriate.
One thing that seems clear is that Lorenzen himself is on board with the possibility of a new job description. He spoke about his preparation in a recent appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link, with audio), voicing not only a willingness but an eagerness and desire for more time at the plate in 2019. Lorenzen joked that he’s “begged” the Reds for an expanded role and sounds energized by the possibility of getting some chances at the plate and in the field next season.
Rays Designate Oliver Drake, Announce Signing Of Avisail Garcia
The Rays have designated righty Oliver Drake for assignment, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports on Twitter. His roster spot will go to outfielder Avisail Garcia, whose previously reported signing is now official.
It’s not terribly surprising to see Drake again dropped from a 40-man roster, as it seems his fate to end up in DFA limbo at least once every few months. In addition to his many prior trips into that netherworld, Drake has thrice moved through limbo this offseason alone. This isn’t even the first time he has been cast away by the Tampa Bay org since the 2018 season drew to a close.
Whether the 32-year-old will clear waivers or again end up on the move remains to be seen, but the smart money may be on a deal. Quite a few teams obviously still see the potential in his right arm, given that he appeared with an eye-popping five MLB teams last year and has since continued to bounce around the waiver wire. As we have explained on quite a few prior occasions, Drake has long produced intriguing peripherals. While that hasn’t often led to equivalent results, he did finish on a strong run last year with the Twins.
Cubs To Sign Rob Scahill
The Cubs have agreed to a minors deal with righty Rob Scahill, according to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter). It is not yet known whether Scahill will receive a spring invite, though it stands to reason that he would.
Scahill, who’ll turn 32 right as camp opens, has appeared in each of the past seven MLB seasons, though he has yet to tally 35 frames in a given campaign. All told, the reliever owns a 3.85 ERA through 149 2/3 innings. He has managed just 6.0 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 in that stretch, but does carry a healthy 55.0% groundball rate.
For most of the 2018 season, Scahill pitched for the White Sox’ top affiliate. Though he only provided Charlotte with a 5.64 ERA, Scahill did post an uncharacteristically robust tally of 10.5 strikeouts per nine.
Barring injury, the odds seem long for Scahill to crack the Opening Day roster for the Cubs. Still, he could be a worthwhile depth piece for the Chicago organization and will enter Spring Training with at least a fighting chance at staking a claim to big league pen job.
NL East Notes: McNeil, Marlins, Braves
The Mets‘ additions of Robinson Cano and Jed Lowrie have eaten up most of the infield at-bats that would’ve otherwise gone to breakout 2018 rookie Jeff McNeil, writes Anthony DiComo in his latest inbox column. As such, McNeil now looks outfield bound in 2019 — a role he’s only played in a total of nine minor league games. While Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto are locked into outfield spots — likely in center and right field — McNeil will join Juan Lagares and Keon Broxton in the mix for additional outfield playing time. (Yoenis Cespedes‘ status for the 2019 season is uncertain following surgery on both heels.) It’s curious to see McNeil to a more limited role after the 26-year-old burst onto the scene with a .329/.381/.471 slash in 248 plate appearances, though surely the organization feels its depth on the position player side is formidable. For those wondering, DiComo notes that Todd Frazier isn’t likely to be moved coming off a career-worst year, adding that GM Brodie Van Wagenen indicated Frazier is expected to receive regular at-bats at the infield corners. It’s somewhat curious, then, that the Mets chose to deepen their infield mix with Lowrie rather than add a reliever like Adam Ottavino, who agreed to a $9MM annual salary on a three-year deal with the Yankees yesterday.
Here’s more from the National League East…
- Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald provides an update on a sleepy Marlins offseason, explaining that the club is still waiting for some bigger things to fall into place before adding to its roster. Beyond the obvious fact that the rebuilding club is waiting to see what players might fall through the cracks in free agency, the Marlins are not particularly interested in making moves before lining up a hopeful trade involving star catcher J.T. Realmuto. That deal could return some MLB pieces, which would dictate the team’s further needs. Jackson also reports that Miami would like to add a lefty bat who can play both the infield and the outfield — a perplexing target considering the fact that the Marlins cut Derek Dietrich, who fits that description to a tee, rather than pay him a projected $4.8MM salary. Jackson again notes that right-hander Dan Straily is available, though Miami isn’t shopping him and would be happy to have him in the rotation in 2019 if a solid offer doesn’t materialize.
- The Braves likely wouldn’t offer Craig Kimbrel more than three years to bring him back to Atlanta, writes Mark Bowman of MLB.com, and even then, the average annual value Kimbrel figures to seek could prove prohibitive. The outfield and the rotation, it seems, are still larger priorities for Atlanta decision-makers. Bowman notes that the Braves have not pursued Adam Jones in free agency despite a clear corner outfield opening, instead citing Nick Markakis as the likeliest free agent for the team to pursue.
Relief Market Notes: Kimbrel, Brach, Axford
With Adam Ottavino leaving the board today, only one of the top nine relievers on MLBTR’s top 50 free agent list — the top member of that group, of course — remains unsigned. That seems to set the stage for the next tier of the relief market to kick into action. Cody Allen, Bud Norris, and Brad Brach all earned placements on our ranking but remain unsigned. Other still-unsigned veteran pen arms warranted honorable mention status: Justin Wilson, Ryan Madson, Oliver Perez, Adam Warren, and Tony Sipp. I recently broke down those and other names that are still available.
Here’s the latest on the relief market:
- The Red Sox are continuing to tamp down expectations of a move to add a closer. As Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski referred to free agent closer Craig Kimbrel‘s Boston tenure in the past tense in comments today. He also suggested the team feels comfortable with its existing options to handle the ninth inning, naming Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Tyler Thornburg, and Steven Wright as possibilities. Needless to say, that’s an interesting foursome for the defending World Series champs to propose as a slate of Kimbrel successor candidates. If there’s still a chance of a reunion with the all-time great reliever, Dombrowski didn’t hint at it. “Sometimes, you have to evaluate where you’re going to spend your dollars,” he said. “We decided to keep back the rest of the core of the club. We like our team a great deal and we think some of the guys internally can do the job. Can we get better? Perhaps. But we’ll see what takes place.”
- With no future commitments to speak of and a path to contention, the Twins seem to be a team to watch on the market. If nothing else, the club figures to bolster its pitching staff. The aforementioned Brad Brach is among the possible targets, according to LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune (Twitter link). The Minnesota front office has certainly shown an inclination to limit its risks in free agency, and it stands to reason that Brach will be available for a lesser and shorter commitment than many of the hurlers that have gone off the board already. The 32-year-old had something of a messy 2018 season after a string of productive campaigns, which could make him a nice value proposition.
- Veteran reliever John Axford is making no secret of his desire to return to the Blue Jays for the coming season, as Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca writes. With his family rooted in Toronto, the Canadian hurler says it’s where he’d like to be. Axford’s pitch is that he’d be a good mentor for a young team — and, perhaps, will again turn into a summer trade asset. There’s certainly an argument to be made that Axford would be a good fit, particularly if he’s again willing to take a minor-league deal. As Nicholson-Smith notes, Axford is delivering plenty of heat with his fastball, and the Jays still appear in need of some pitching depth.