Market Chatter: Realmuto, Keuchel, Indians, Castellanos, Ross
The on-again, off-again chatter surrounding the Braves and Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto has left an uncertain situation. While the Atlanta organization already seems to have a palatable situation behind the dish, with Brian McCann rejoining the org to pair with Tyler Flowers, it’s also one that is susceptible of improvement. In any event, the stalemate seemingly continues, though Craig Mish of MLB Network does tweet that the teams have been in contact of late regarding Realmuto. It’s far from clear that any progress has been made, though, as he says the Braves “appear to be waiting [the] Marlins out.” The Rays also “remain a possibility,” says Mish, though at this point it’s really anyone’s guess how things will turn out with regard to Realmuto, who’s a valuable enough asset that any number of other teams could conceivably still enter the picture or circle back if other offseason pursuits don’t pan out.
Some more notes on the trade and free-agent markets…
- The Bryce Harper and Manny Machado sagas are holding up the markets for many remaining free agents, even left-hander Dallas Keuchel, per MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal (video link). Rosenthal suggested on MLBN’s Hot Stove this morning that Keuchel is waiting to see where the market’s top two free agents land, presumably knowing that a suitor who misses out on Harper or Machado will have money to spend elsewhere. The Phillies, for instance, have been connected to all three players, so it’s not all that difficult to see them making a more serious run at Keuchel should their top two targets sign elsewhere.
- Another would-be blockbuster situation that may now be fizzling is the Indians‘ oft-discussed negotiations on top starters Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer. Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer discusses the situation, suggesting it may be time for the Cleveland organization to ask for final offers and otherwise move on from the marketing process. Of course, it’s far from clear that the team is taking that stance. And as Hoynes goes on to discuss, it’s also still not apparent how (or even if) the Indians will go about improving a roster that looks quite a bit different than it did just a few months ago. It’s still possible that Cleveland could add an outfielder from the free-agent market, but there’s no indication that they’re in line to make a significant splash on that front.
- Meanwhile, talks between the Braves and the Tigers regarding outfielder Nicholas Castellanos have gone nowhere since the two sides talked at last month’s Winter Meetings, Morosi tweets. The Braves are, of course, still looking far and wide for a corner outfielder and are “active” in their pursuit of that key need. With many options seemingly still on the table, though, the club appears to be content not to push hard for any particular player, which might increase the acquisition cost.
- Veteran southpaw Robbie Ross is preparing to throw for scouts in mid-January as he looks for a new opportunity, MLBTR has learned. Ross spent time with the White Sox organization in 2018, but struggled with his command as he worked back to health following back surgery in August of 2017. He’s now said to be at full strength, though he’ll certainly need to show that to the talent evaluators who take a look. The 29-year-old has generally been quite effective as a big-league reliever, with a 3.52 ERA in 270 2/3 career innings in that capacity.
Harper & Machado Rumors: 1/9/19
The free agent market as a whole is moving at a plodding rate. Somewhat surprisingly, perhaps, there also hasn’t been a ton of action surrounding superstar free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Of course, with so much money at stake, perhaps it shouldn’t come as a shock that both players are taking some time to work out new deals.
The latest …
- Heyman now indicates that Machado’s camp is looking not only for a $300MM+ offer but is still seeking a total guarantee that tops Giancarlo Stanton’s $325MM record (Twitter links). Furthermore, he adds that while there’s been no indication from the Yankees that they’re formally out of the running for Machado, New York has not yet made an offer and isn’t willing to go anywhere all that close to $300MM in order to sign Machado. Obviously, all of that can change quickly with one decision from ownership, but it’s not an encouraging update for Yankees fans hoping to see Machado in the Bronx in 2019 and beyond.
Earlier Updates
- Machado is still looking for an offer in excess of $300MM, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). The White Sox and Phillies are the only two teams known to have made formal proposals, neither of which have reached that value. Of course, the Philadelphia organization is reportedly set to put in another offer, the details of which remain unknown. The Yankees have also still yet to officially put anything on the table for Machado, Heyman adds.
- Will there be significant movement? If so, when and by what mechanism? MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand hears that the markets for Machado and Harper are “heating up.” As his sources have it, the Phillies are “turning up” their efforts for the former, while the Nationals have “momentum building” to bring back the latter. Bruce Levine of 670theScore.com also cites a sense of market movement, but he hears it’s the White Sox who are gaining “momentum” on Machado. Levine also mentions a fourth, unknown potential suitor for Machado, though Heyman claims there’s “still no word” of a shadowy pursuer.
- Generally, there’s still a dearth of hard information on the various teams’ stances regarding these players. It’s still easy to imagine the negotiations evolving in any number of different ways. Still, it’s striking that so few teams appear to be involved. The entire situation is a “disgrace,” Jim Bowden of The Athletic argues (subscription link). He ticks through a variety of ballclubs that should be able to fit $30MM+ salaries and have cause to be involved, decrying a market situation in which “essentially just four teams [are] legitimately bidding for the game’s two best free agents.” On the same note, Jonah Keri of CBS Sports provides some anonymous opinions on the matter from well-placed league executives. There seems to be at least something of a consensus that teams are less interested than ever in exceedingly lengthy contracts, even for players of such relative youth, with a variety of other theories batted around regarding this duo in particular. The story also delves into broader market topics and is well worth a read.
Jaime Garcia To Retire
Veteran left-hander Jaime Garcia is set to formally announce his retirement after spending parts of 10 seasons in the Majors, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Alex Carrion Velo of El Heraldo de Chihuahua in Mexico first tweeted that Garcia was “expected” to announce his retirement today.
Still just 32 years of age, Garcia struggled in 2018 after turning a solid 2017 effort between the Braves, Twins and Yankees. In 82 innings between the Blue Jays and Cubs in 2018, Garcia logged an unsightly 5.82 ERA with a 73-to-44 K/BB ratio in 33 appearances (14 starts).
From 2010-17, however, the left-hander was a quality midrotation piece, primarily for the Cardinals, for whom he played a significant role in a 2011 World Series Championship. Garcia’s 2011 campaign included 194 2/3 innings of 3.56 ERA ball, and he gave the Cardinals a pair of strong starts in the World Series, where he totaled 10 innings and yielded just two earned runs against the Rangers. Despite a long run as a useful big league starter, Garcia never made an All-Star team, though the 2011 World Series ring assuredly more than compensates for that in his eyes.
Overall, the lefty will walk away from the game with a lifetime 70-62 record, a 3.85 ERA in 1135 regular-season innings, 925 strikeouts (7.3 K/9) against 369 walks (2.9 BB/9) and an additional 32 1/3 innings of 3.62 ERA ball from parts of four separate postseason appearances. He earned more than $60MM in player salaries over the course of his time in the big leagues and will long be remembered by Cardinals fans for the eight years and nearly 900 innings of quality production he gave to the St. Louis organization.
Mariners, Dustin Ackley Agree To Minor League Deal
Veteran infielder/outfielder Dustin Ackley is headed back to his original organization, as he’s agreed to a minor league contract with the Mariners, according to multiple reports (including Fancred’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
Ackley, now 30 years of age, hasn’t appeared in the Majors since a brief 2016 run with the Yankees, where he hit .148/.243/.148 in a small sample of 70 plate appearances. He’s spent the past two seasons with the Angels’ Triple-A affiliate, where he’s gotten on base at a solid clip but struggled to hit for power despite playing in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. In 284 plate appearances last season, Ackley hit .286/.378/.398 with four homers, 13 doubles and a triple.
Selected by the Mariners out of North Carolina with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2009 draft, Ackley was viewed as an advanced college bat who could quickly move through the system. That proved to be the case, as he was in the Majors two years later and hit .273/.348/.417 — good for a 120 OPS+ at the age of 23. However, Ackley’s bat cratered in his sophomore season with the M’s, and he’s batted only .235/.296/.358 over the life of 1971 plate appearances in parts of five big league seasons since that time. Ackley’s addition is a depth move for the Mariners, as he’ll likely open the season in Triple-A Tacoma as he looks to work his way back to the big leagues for the first time in nearly three full years.
Padres, Robbie Erlin Avoid Arbitration
The Padres have avoided arbitration with southpaw Robbie Erlin by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $1.45MM, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. That marks an $800K raise from last season’s $650K salary and checks in a fair bit north of Erlin’s projected $1.1MM salary (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz). Erlin is repped by Sosnick, Cobbe & Karon.
The 28-year-old Erlin was arbitration-eligible for a second time this winter and will go through the process once more next winter before becoming a free agent upon completion of the 2020 season. Erlin missed most of the 2016 season and the entire 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery (hence the modest $650K salary in his first trip through the arb process), but he rebounded with a solid effort on the mound in 2018. The left-hander tossed 109 innings for the Friars and logged a 4.21 ERA, though his sterling 88-to-12 K/BB ratio and solid 46.7 percent ground-ball rate led fielding-independent metrics to view his work much more favorably (3.31 FIP, 3.41 xFIP, 3.52 SIERA).
Erlin made 27 relief appearances and a dozen starts for the Padres last season, including a run of 10 starts to finish out his season. The Padres were cautious with those starts, never allowing him to reach 100 pitches and only allowing him to top five innings on one occasion, but he’ll likely open the season in the San Diego rotation with fewer restrictions now that he’s further removed from surgery.
The Padres have now avoided arbitration with Erlin, righty Bryan Mitchell and infielder Greg Garcia, leaving right-hander Kirby Yates, outfielder Travis Jankowski and catcher Austin Hedges as their three remaining cases to be resolved. With the deadline to exchange arbitration figures looming on Friday, there figures to be a veritable avalanche of settlements on Friday (in addition to a few early deals today and tomorrow). Readers can keep up with all of the filings and settlements using MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.
Indians Avoid Arbitration With Kevin Plawecki
The Indians have agreed to a $1,137,500 deal with recently acquired backstop Kevin Plawecki, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports (via Twitter). He had been projected by MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz to earn $1.3MM.
Plawecki, 27, reached arb eligibility this year as a Super Two player. That means he’ll still be controllable for three more campaigns to come by the Cleveland organization.
The recent swap that delivered Plawecki to the Indians was designed to fill the void created when the club shipped out Yan Gomes at the outset of the offseason. In the aggregate, the team will save just under $6MM in its catching unit, which also features Roberto Perez and Eric Haase.
Plawecki is something of an offensive-oriented backstop, though he’s hardly a world-beating hitter. Since the start of the 2017 season, he has hit at a roughly league-average .225/.330/.379 rate. Defensively, he grades well at blocking pitches in the dirt but isn’t much loved by pitch-framing metrics.
Despite his limitations on the field, the one-time top prospect seems to be a nice value at his current price tag, which explains why he was targeted by the budget-conscious Indians. His earning power over the following three seasons will be driven by his playing time and performance, of course, so the Cleveland club will enjoy ample flexibility in the years to come.
As always, you can keep up to date with arbitration numbers with MLBTR’s Arbitration Database.
Minor MLB Transactions: 1/9/19
We’ll track the day’s minor moves in this post …
- Righty Barry Enright has decided to hang up his spikes, though he’ll remain in uniform. The 32-year-old is joining the Diamondbacks in a coaching capacity. A former second-round draft pick of the Arizona organization, Enright threw 148 2/3 MLB innings between 2010 and 2013 but was not able to make it back to the game’s highest level thereafter. He enjoyed a productive, multi-year run in the Mexican League — an experience he spoke about on the MLBTR podcast — while also appearing with affiliated organizations in the past two seasons.
Taking Stock Of The Relief Market
The flow of free agency isn’t what it used to be, but there has been a fair amount of movement at the top of the bullpen market. Of the 13 relievers who earned a spot on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list, eight are already off the board. Further down the line, though, the hurlers have mostly been left waiting.
Let’s check in on where things stand with just over a month to go before the start of Spring Training:
Premium Relievers
There’s no doubting that Craig Kimbrel remains the premium name on the market, even if it’s still not clear which teams are truly pursuing him. It’s tough to ignore his historic excellence, even if he dealt with some consistency issues at an inopportune time in 2018. Just how far his asking price will have to drop remains to be seen.
Otherwise, Adam Ottavino is perhaps the only other reliever who not only possesses top-end stuff but deployed it to full effect in the just-completed campaign. He’d still fit on any number of staffs as a set-up man or closer. Ottavino has been discussed a fair bit all winter long and still seems to have strong demand.
Top Alternative Relievers
Teams that look to the next tier of arms still have some names to consider. It wasn’t long ago that Cody Allen seemed likely to be considered among the best-available hurlers, so he could be a bargain if he’s able to get back on track. Brad Brach has also established some real upside, though he wasn’t at his best last year. Despite miserable results all year long, Ryan Madson still delivers power stuff and impeccable K/BB numbers.
Results have been strong of late for Bud Norris, who has been more effective as a reliever. Much the same can be said of Adam Warren, another former swingman who has settled in as a steady pen piece. Sergio Romo is still tough to square up, though he has been a bit prone to the long ball when good contact is made.
Teams looking for upside may look to coax former closers Brad Boxberger and Hunter Strickland with promises of opportunities and incentives. David Phelps and AJ Ramos are among the interesting hurlers returning from injury.
On the left side, Justin Wilson is still among the more interesting and frustrating hurlers around. He still racks up the strikeouts, but his control issues remain a major concern. Oliver Perez was shockingly effective last year, racking up a 43:7 K/BB ratio and allowing only 17 hits and five earned runs in 32 1/3 innings, though that showing came at 37 years of age and on the heels of a few decidedly less productive campaigns. Tony Sipp is another older southpaw who had a strong bounceback season.
There are other notable names, too. Luis Avilan and Xavier Cedeno have been quietly effective of late. Dan Jennings has continued to generate good results despite underwhelming underlying stats. Zach Duke‘s ERA lagged his peripherals, but he was probably in the best overall form of several veteran bounceback candidates (Jerry Blevins, Jake Diekman, Aaron Loup).
Other Names To Consider
John Axford, Tony Barnette, Matt Belisle, Joaquin Benoit, Blaine Boyer, Santiago Casilla, Tyler Clippard, Tim Collins, Jorge De La Rosa, Randall Delgado, Cory Gearrin, Chris Hatcher, Greg Holland, Daniel Hudson, Jim Johnson, Shawn Kelley, George Kontos, Brandon Maurer, Zach McAllister, Peter Moylan, Drew Storen, Nick Vincent, Alex Wilson, Blake Wood
Dombrowski: Red Sox “Have Not Anticipated Large Expenditure For A Closer”
The Red Sox have already lost Joe Kelly to the Dodgers via free agency and stand to lose Craig Kimbrel in free agency as well if they don’t make a push to re-sign him in the coming weeks. However, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski downplayed the possibility of retaining Kimbrel in an interview with Bob Nightengale of USA Today. “Craig did a great job for us,” said Dombrowski. “He’s a Hall of Fame reliever, but we have not anticipated having a large expenditure for a closer.”
Those words have to be cringe-worthy for Kimbrel and his representatives, as the seven-time All-Star reportedly entered free agency hoping to secure a six-year pact. As of late December, Kimbrel’s camp had dropped the price tag a bit but was still seeking a deal along the lines of the five-year pacts scored by Aroldis Chapman ($86MM) and Kenley Jansen ($80MM) two offseasons ago. As I noted at the time of that report, though, Kimbrel is only three months younger than Chapman and eight months younger than Jansen — meaning he’s over a year older now than were the other two hurlers at the time they signed.
Looking beyond the impact of Dombrowski’s comments on Kimbrel, however, it’s perhaps alarming for Sox fans to hear the team’s top decision-maker suggest that there may not be a bullpen splash of note. Ryan Brasier, Matt Barnes and Heath Hembree are currently in line for work at the back of the Boston ‘pen, and that trio can’t exactly fill fans or the team with confidence.
While Brasier looked sensational as an out-of-the-blue reclamation project in 2018 and Barnes has emerged as a quality setup piece over the past two seasons, the overall bullpen is lacking in experience. Brandon Workman has been solid over the past two seasons but in a smallish sample of 81 innings. Tyler Thornburg was tendered a contract after a pair of injury-ruined campaigns, while lefty Brian Johnson has been steady but unspectacular.
It should be noted, of course, that Dombrowski’s comments certainly don’t indicate that the Sox won’t be making bullpen additions of any kind. But a splash for Kimbrel seems unlikely in the wake of such a public declaration, and second-tier names like Adam Ottavino could also prove steep depending on Dombrowski’s definition of “large expenditure.” It’s worth noting that over at Roster Resource, Jason Martinez projects Boston’s current luxury tax payroll to be at a hefty $239.7MM. Even accounting for a bit of wiggle room, that doesn’t leave Boston with much room if the team hopes to remain south of the top luxury tax penalization bracket.
Of course, there’s also no real reason that the Red Sox should need to remain below that threshold unless ownership makes the curious decision to mandate doing so. The Sox are entering their final season of control over Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts, and they could see J.D. Martinez opt out of his contract next winter as well. There’s every reason for Boston to put the pedal to the proverbial metal in this instance, even if doing so means taking a hit in the draft for a second consecutive season. (The collective bargaining agreement stipulates that exceeding the luxury threshold by more than $40MM will drop a team’s top pick in the following year’s draft by 10 spots in addition to a 45 percent luxury tax on any dollars over $246MM.)
Perhaps the Sox will find an intriguing option on the trade market or make a shrewd investment or two in the lower tiers of the free-agent market for relievers once the market dries up a bit, but it’s nevertheless puzzling that a team that is so heavily invested in every other area of the roster isn’t taking a more aggressive approach when striving to replace its two most prominent relievers. Of course, it’s also possible that Dombrowski’s comments not only reflect some real hesitation, but also represent an effort to shore up his leverage in negotiations with potential signees.
Rangers, Michael Tonkin Agree To Minor League Deal
The Rangers have agreed to a minor league contract with right-hander Michael Tonkin, according to Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News. The former Twins righty spent the 2018 season pitching for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan. He’s represented by Wasserman.
Tonkin, 29, posted a 3.71 ERA and saved a dozen games in 51 innings out of the Fighters’ bullpen, though his K/BB numbers took a dramatic turn for the worse in his lone season overseas. Missing bats was always a strong point for the lanky, 6’7″ righty when pitching in the Twins’ system, as he averaged 10.6 K/9 in parts of four Triple-A seasons and 9.2 K/9 in parts of five MLB campaigns. In Japan, however, he managed just a 33-to-23 K/BB ratio in those 51 frames — 5.8 strikeouts and 4.1 walks per nine innings.
Throughout his five seasons with the Twins, Tonkin pitched to a 4.43 ERA over the life of 146 2/3 innings. Control wasn’t a significant issue for him (3.3 BB/9), but Tonkin proved to be increasingly homer-prone as his time in the Majors wore on. Ultimately, he averaged 1.54 homers per nine innings pitched in the Majors and saw his ERA spike north of 5.00 in each of his final two seasons.
Tonkin averages 94 mph on his heater and pairs that primarily with a slider — a combo that resulted in a solid 11.3 percent swinging-strike rate from 2016-17. His penchant for serving up long balls doesn’t bode well for any time spent at Globe Life Park in Arlington, however, so the Rangers will need to curb that issue in a way the Twins couldn’t. He’ll be part of a fairly wide-open bullpen competition in Texas behind Jose Leclerc, Jesse Chavez and Chris Martin.