Projecting Payrolls: Los Angeles Dodgers
In the opening piece in this series, we looked at the Philadelphia Phillies, a team almost certain to be a major player in this winter’s free agent market. In addition to being a fun look at a key market participant, that piece also sets forth some key assumptions to be used in this series regarding financial information available to the public.
With Philadelphia in our rear view mirror, we turn our attention to the biggest spender in recent years: the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Team Leadership
Despite being a marquee franchise, the Dodgers found themselves embroiled in a quagmire during much of the last decade, with Frank McCourt’s tumultuous ownership ending with a bankruptcy sale to Guggenheim Partners in 2012. Guggenheim — consisting of Mark Walter, Magic Johnson, Stan Kasten, Peter Guber, Bobby Patton, and Todd Boehly — added Billie Jean King and Ilana Kloss as minority owners in 2018, comprising the current group. As is well known, they have spent aggressively throughout their ownership, fueled in large part by an $8.3 billion, 25-year television rights deal with Time Warner.
After directing a run of success in Tampa Bay, Andrew Friedman joined the Dodgers as President of Baseball Operations on a lucrative five-year, $35 million deal after the 2014 season. Despite that massive contract, this is actually a time of some uncertainty with the front office. Friedman named Farhan Zaidi his general manager shortly after taking over in 2014, but Zaidi left to run the rival Giants earlier this month. It is also worth noting that the Dodgers have yet to guarantee an outside free agent even $50 million during Friedman’s tenure.
Historical Payrolls
Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both.
As with the Phillies, we’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Dodgers, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership. With the Dodgers, this captures nearly the entirety of the McCourt years and all of Guggenheim’s free spending ways. Here is what the Dodgers have spent in the prior 14 seasons:
The Dodgers payroll story tracks the story of their ownership changes remarkably well. In the mid-2000s, McCourt increased spending to build a winner before corralling expenditures as his divorce from ex-wife Jamie and the effects of purchasing the team with so much debt caught up with him. Then the Guggenheim folks showed up and blew the top off of what most of us thought was the ceiling for spending outside of the Bronx. Importantly, the figures above do not include luxury tax payments, meaning that Dodgers spending was actually notably higher over that span thanks to the taxes that accompanied their lavish spending.
Unlike Philadelphia, the Dodgers were substantial players in the Latin American amateur market before Major League Baseball imposed significant spending restrictions, handing out substantial deals to the likes of Yadier Alvarez, Yusniel Diaz, Omar Estevez, and Erisbel Arruebarrena. In the end, as gaudy as the Major League spending figures were, amateur spending added a significant amount to overall expenditures reflected above, at least during the Guggenheim period of ownership.
Future Liabilities
For a team known for its massive spending habits, the Dodgers have surprisingly little in the way of long-term guarantees, especially when compared to other big spenders in major markets competing for the World Series each year.
Here is a look at their future guarantees with the powder blue highlight indicative of a player option — in the case of Kenley Jansen, this is an opt-out prior to the 2020 season. As mentioned above, note that the numbers shown on here are cash payments by year, not the salary plus the prorated amount of any bonus. The AAV column captures the player’s luxury tax number.
The Dodgers’ new deal with Clayton Kershaw gives them an ace on a reasonably short-term deal. While the annual financial commitment is high, the Dodgers must have been pleased to keep the term so modest.
Beyond Hill, their salary sheet is loaded with short-term commitments until we hit Maeda. Maeda’s contract is heavily incentive driven. Maeda receives $3 million annually, then receives the following incentives:
- $0.15 million for making Opening Day roster
- $1 million for each of 15 and 20 starts, then $1.5 million for each of 25, 30, and 32 starts
- $0.25 million for each of 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, and 190 innings pitched, then $0.75 million for 200 innings pitched
It is an extraordinarily team-friendly pact, one that has played out handsomely for Los Angeles. From a budgetary standpoint, however, it does present plenty of uncertainty.
At the bottom of the chart, we see two lines with hefty numbers but no tax component. First, we see the remaining half of the $48 million owed to Scott Kazmir from his three-year deal covering the 2016-18 seasons. Instead of receiving $16 million per year or something close to it, Kazmir received $8 million annually for six years. As such, he will receive his $8 million annual payouts in 2019-21, but those cash receipts won’t count against the Dodgers’ luxury tax figure. Cuban pitcher Yaisel Sierra obtained a substantial guarantee from the Dodgers, but he is yet to pass Double-A and didn’t record an inning in affiliated ball in 2018. Because L.A. removed him from their 40-man roster (under a rule that has now been amended), his significant cash guarantees do not count against the luxury tax figure for the Dodgers either.
Moving to arbitration, the Dodgers feature a pair of massive paydays for pending free agents in Yasiel Puig and Alex Wood. On the other hand, they appear to have “lucked” into artificially deflated arbitration pay rates for shortstop Corey Seager due to a poorly timed injury in his platform year. Here are the arbitration statuses (salary projections by MLBTR and Matt Swartz):
The Dodgers have a number of key contributions controlled via arbitration, but as is the case with most teams, there are some players here who stand a good chance of being non-tendered. From this viewpoint, it looks like Koehler, Garcia, and Rosscup will likely get the boot. Regardless of what happens with that trio, only a couple of million dollars in savings are there to be found.
What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?
This is where things get interesting. Really interesting. Last week, the Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times got hold of a document prepared by the Dodgers before the 2017 postseason for potential investors indicating that the club intended to stay below the luxury tax threshold each year from 2019-22. This would be a striking shift from the free-spending club. The document pegged future payrolls roughly $5 million south of the luxury tax threshold in each season once player benefits are factored in, as they are for luxury tax purposes, projecting payroll at $185 million in 2019 and 2020, $191 million in 2021, and $196 million in 2022.
Will such a spending restriction come to fruition? Your guess is as good as mine. It’s worth stressing that the document was prepared before the 2017 postseason and that Shaikin cited a team official as saying that he would be “shocked” if the payroll stayed below $200 million in 2019. The team’s plans might have changed in the last 13 months, especially after back-to-back World Series losses. But one significant data point out there regarding Dodgers spending in 2019 suggests that the 2018 payroll will be far more predictive of spending in 2019 and beyond than were the payrolls from 2013-17.
Are the Dodgers a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?
Simply put, this depends on how you feel about the two preceding paragraphs. If the Dodgers haven’t altered their plans since that document was prepared, it’s difficult to see them making a serious push for either player. If the Dodgers were merely posturing with the leaked document or setting forth an aspirational threshold that they don’t actually expect to hit, Harper or Machado is surely in play as the franchise continues to be flush with cash as they chase a World Series title that has proved elusive. (Those same leaked projections also predicted significant revenue increases.)
What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?
The standard disclaimer: ownership and management knows the actual budget whereas we’re focusing on historical data and other relevant factors to project future spending in the immediate and more distant years to come.
Whereas the Phillies will clearly spend and spend big, the Dodgers enter this offseason as a wild card. They have enough talent on the Major League roster and in the upper levels on the farm to expect another excellent season in 2019 without marquee additions this winter. They lack an obvious hole — provided, at least, that the Dodgers believe in Matt Kemp’s 2018 resurgence. Of course, even if they don’t buy into Kemp repeating his surprising success, Alex Verdugo is likely ready to jump to the big club to take his job.
If the Dodgers are serious about capping their spending south of the tax line, they won’t make a big move. Even removing Koehler, Garcia, and Rosscup, the Dodgers are projected to spend $196.5 million including the hits for Kazmir, Sierra, and Toscano. Removing that trio, they are still at $184.3 million. There just isn’t enough payroll space to make a splash. If, on the other hand, the Dodgers get serious about Harper, they could create enough financial wiggle room to sign him by upping payroll by a few million dollars, shipping out Puig, and trading one of their lefty starters: Wood, Rich Hill, or Hyun-Jin Ryu. Friedman would likely be able to find a market for his moderate-sized contracts should he elect to go that route, though Ryu would have to approve any deal before June 15th of 2019 since he accepted a qualifying offer and is therefore treated like a signing free agent.
While it seems crazy to think that they’ll actually hold tight to their purse strings, the presence of impact talent on the farm and a strong Major League roster lends credence to the idea that L.A. could roll into 2019 with their core largely intact from 2018, allowing Machado to leave in free agency after a mercenary visit while passing on the chance to bring Harper back to the Southwest. Crazier things have happened.
We’ll find out if I’m a chump for believing this in the coming weeks.
Projected 2019 Payroll: $195 million
Projected 2019 Payroll Space: -$1.5 million
Korea’s KIA Tigers Sign Jacob Turner, Jeremy Hazelbaker
8:02pm: The club has announced the signing of Turner as well as that of outfielder Jeremy Hazelbaker (via Yonhap News; again, as conveyed by Kurtz). Turner receives a $1MM salary ($300K via signing bonus), while Hazelbaker will take home $700K ($200K signing bonus).
The 31-year-old Hazelbaker has impressive MLB numbers in a small sample. He has also at times posted compelling numbers in the upper minors, though 2018 was not his finest effort. While bouncing between three organizations, Hazelbaker ended the most recent campaign with a .204/.298/.385 slash over 356 plate appearances.
7:24pm: Veteran righty Jacob Turner has reportedly agreed to a deal with the Korea Baseball Organization’s KIA Tigers, per Naver Sports (Korean language link; h/t Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net, on Twitter). Financial terms are not known.
Turner, who is still just 27 years of age, was once one of the brightest pitching prospects in baseball. While he raced to the big leagues in his second professional season at twenty years of age, Turner has never yet been able to find sustained success.
In recent seasons, Turner has settled in as a journeyman depth asset. He had brief stints with the Marlins and Tigers in 2018, revisiting the two organizations with which he began his career. He has also appeared briefly with the Nationals, Cubs, and White Sox.
All told, Turner owns only a 5.37 ERA in his 369 MLB frames, with 5.8 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 along with a 46.5% groundball rate. That said, Turner is still bringing 94+ mph heat on his sinker. With youth still on his side, a return stateside can’t be ruled out if he’s able to find something in the KBO.
Brewers Finalize Coaching Staff
The Brewers announced today that they’ve promoted Chris Hook from pitching coordinator to pitching coach, hired Steve Karsay away from the Indians organization to serve as the new bullpen coach, and hired Scott Barringer away from the Astros to serve as the new head athletic trainer. Milwaukee also formally announced the previously reported hiring of Andy Haines as hitting coach and announced that Jason Lane would reprise his role as assistant hitting coach.
Hook has been with the organization for more than a decade, primarily working as a pitching coach at the minor league level before spending the 2018 season as the organization’s pitching coordinator. The 50-year-old had an 11-year professional playing career, including 65 2/3 innings with the Giants in 1995-96. He’ll be plenty familiar with a number of the team’s homegrown arms, having worked with them along the way in their journey to the Majors.
“I think when you know players and how they think, you can move them quicker,” said Hook of that benefit (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy). “That’s the way I feel. Even though I don’t know all of these pitchers, I know a good bit of them, and I feel like they trust me. If we trust each other, you can do good things with people.”
The 46-year-old Karsay was a pitching coach in the Indians’ system for the past seven years, including a 2016-18 run as the pitching coach in Triple-A Columbus, where he worked with promising young arms like Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber, among others. Karsay collected 41 saves and posted a 4.01 ERA through 603 1/3 innings as a Major Leaguer from 1993-2006.
Barringer creates yet another opening the Astros need to fill after previous losing bullpen coach Doug White, hitting coach Dave Hudgens and assistant hitting coach Jeff Albert to other organizations (to say nothing of assistant GM Mike Elias heading to Baltimore as the new Orioles general manager). Barringer was the Astros’ assistant athletic trainer from 2017-18 and the organization’s minor league medical coordinator in 2016. Prior to that, he as a minor league athletic trainer with the Cubs and Diamondbacks for a combined five seasons.
MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For Top 10 Free Agents
MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed last night. 6,845 people entered the contest. Here’s where our readers think each of the top 10 free agents is going.
1. Bryce Harper – Phillies (34.0%), Dodgers (13.1%), Nationals (10.8%), Giants (9.8%), Cubs (8.5%), Cardinals (7.9%), White Sox (6.0%), Yankees (4.2%), Braves (1.4%), Astros (1.4%), Angels (1.1%)
2. Manny Machado – Phillies (45.8%), Yankees (36.5%), White Sox (5.0%), Dodgers (4.0%), Cardinals (1.9%), Mets (1.5%), Cubs (1.3%)
3. Patrick Corbin – Yankees (74.8%), Phillies (3.1%), Astros (3.0%), Brewers (2.5%), Angels (2.4%), Braves (2.1%), Cardinals (1.4%), Nationals (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.4%), Cubs (1.2%), Giants (1.1%)
4. Dallas Keuchel – Astros (16.4%), Angels (13.8%), Nationals (13.5%), Brewers (9.9%), Yankees (8.2%), Phillies (6.2%), Braves (6.0%), Cardinals (4.1%), Reds (3.1%), Dodgers (2.1%), Cubs (2.1%), Giants (2.0%), Padres (1.9%), Rangers (1.5%), White Sox (1.4%), Twins (1.2%), Mariners (1.2%), Athletics (1.2%), Red Sox (1.1%)
5. Craig Kimbrel – Braves (28.8%), Red Sox (25.4%), Cardinals (18.1%), Phillies (8.4%), Cubs (3.6%), Nationals (3.1%), Mets (2.6%), Astros (2.2%), Dodgers (1.5%), Angels (1.2%), Indians (1.2%)
6. Yasmani Grandal – Nationals (21.6%), Astros (15.3%), Dodgers (14.4%), Mets (11.3%), Braves (7.8%), Angels (3.4%), Brewers (3.0%), Phillies (2.7%), Mariners (2.6%), Rockies (2.5%), Red Sox (2.5%), Athletics (1.5%), Rangers (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.3%)
7. Nathan Eovaldi – Red Sox (51.5%), Brewers (5.6%), Astros (4.3%), Yankees (4.0%), Angels (3.6%), Padres (3.2%), Phillies (3.0%), Braves (2.8%), Dodgers (2.4%), Reds (2.3%), Nationals (2.1%), Cubs (2.0%), Giants (2.0%), Cardinals (1.6%), White Sox (1.4%), Rangers (1.3%), Twins (1.1%), Athletics (1.0%)
8. A.J. Pollock – Giants (22.9%), Indians (9.2%), Diamondbacks (9.0%), White Sox (6.7%), Phillies (6.2%), Braves (5.7%), Mets (5.4%), Cardinals (5.0%), Nationals (4.6%), Cubs (3.4%), Rockies (3.4%), Mariners (2.5%), Athletics (1.7%), Dodgers (1.6%), Angels (1.6%), Astros (1.5%), Padres (1.5%), Blue Jays (1.4%), Rangers (1.3%), Brewers (1.1%)
9. J.A. Happ – Yankees (30.9%), Blue Jays (9.2%), Angels (8.2%), Brewers (6.5%), Phillies (4.7%), Astros (4.4%), Nationals (3.7%), Twins (3.1%), Athletics (3.1%), Braves (2.6%), Cubs (2.5%), White Sox (2.4%), Cardinals (2.3%), Reds (2.2%), Giants (1.7%), Mariners (1.7%), Dodgers (1.5%), Padres (1.2%), Diamondbacks (1.2%), Red Sox (1.1%), Rangers (1.0%), Indians (1.0%)
10. Michael Brantley – Braves (30.8%), Indians (10.1%), Giants (9.5%), Phillies (4.9%), Cardinals (4.5%), White Sox (4.2%), Nationals (3.6%), Cubs (3.0%), Mariners (2.9%), Astros (2.8%), Diamondbacks (2.6%), Rockies (2.4%), Athletics (2.3%), Mets (2.3%), Blue Jays (1.9%), Angels (1.4%), Twins (1.4%), Rangers (1.2%), Padres (1.1%), Rays (1.0%), Dodgers (1.0%)
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/19/18
Here are Monday’s minor moves from around the game…
- The Cardinals announced a slate of minor league signings, including right-hander Mike Hauschild, left-hander Hunter Cervenka, catcher Joe Hudson, catcher Jose Godoy and first baseman/outfielder Rangel Ravelo. Each received an invitation to Major League Spring Training. St. Louis also announced previously reported Spring Training invites for Tommy Layne and Williams Perez, as well as minor league deals without Spring Training invites for righties Harold Arauz and Ramon Santos. Hauschild, 29 in January, has been hit hard in 16 1/3 MLB innings but has a career 4.02 ERA with 7.9 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 in 437 Triple-A innings (all as a starter). Cervenka posted a 3.53 ERA in 43 1/3 innings between the Braves and Marlins back in 2016 but showed serious control problems along the way and has scarcely pitched in the Majors since. Hudson,27, made a brief big league debut with the Angels in September after a quality showing between their Double-A and Triple-A affiliates. The 24-year-old Godoy and 26-year-old Ravelo are returning to the Cardinals organization. Godoy showed some solid OBP skills in High-A, while Ravelo raked at a .308/.392/.487 pace in 399 PAs with Memphis in his first season with the organization.
- The Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced that they’ve signed left-hander Kyle Regnault for the 2019 season (link via the Japan Times). Soon to turn 30, Regnault spent his first three professional seasons pitching in indy ball before joining the Mets in 2015. All of his work with affiliated clubs has come in the Mets’ system, and Regnault has a 4.10 ERA with a 130-to-47 K/BB ratio in 109 2/3 innings of Triple-A work. In his first season overseas, Regnault will secure a $400K base salary with the opportunity to earn more via incentives, as well as a $125K signing bonus (hat tip to Yakyudb.com). For a lefty that was on the indy circuit just four years ago, that’s a nice chunk of guaranteed money to bring home, and continued success in NPB would obviously lead to greater earning power.
Indians Acquire Chih-Wei Hu From Rays
The Indians announced that they’ve acquired right-hander Chih-Wei Hu from the Rays in exchange for minor league infielder Gionti Turner. The 25-year-old Hu brings Cleveland’s 40-man roster count to 36 players, while the deal gives the Rays organization some flexibility in advance of tomorrow’s deadline to protect additional players from the Rule 5 Draft.
Hu, 25, made his big league debut with Tampa Bay back in 2017 and, over the past two seasons, has pitched to a 3.52 ERA with a 21-to-7 K/BB ratio in 23 innings of big league relief. He’s averaged 93.2 mph on his heater in that time and generated a solid 11.6 percent swinging-strike rate in addition to a 32.2 percent chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone. As an extreme fly-ball pitcher, he’s been a bit homer-prone in his small sample of Major League work.
Tampa Bay initially acquired Hu from the Twins in a 2015 swap that sent Kevin Jepsen from the Rays to the Twins. Minnesota initially signed the Taiwanese-born righty as an amateur free agent back in August 2012. He’s done the entirety of his work in the Majors as a reliever, though the bulk of his minor league career has been spent as a starter. He could give Cleveland some depth in both regards, though given the current state of the Indians’ roster, the clearer path for him to contribute in the big leagues is in a relief capacity. Hu does have a minor league option remaining, so he can be sent to Triple-A Columbus to open the season without being exposed to waivers. In 174 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level, he has a 4.07 ERA with 8.3 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9.
The 18-year-old Turner had an exceptionally brief tenure as a member of the Indians organization. Cleveland selected him the 27th round of this past summer’s draft, and he went on to appear in 46 games for the club’s Rookie-level affiliate in the Arizona League. He acquitted himself well, hitting .296/.348/.396 with a homer, 10 doubles, two triples and nine steals in 187 plate appearances. Turner spent 261 innings at second base, 103 innings at shortstop and 34 innings in center field during that brief professional debut.
Astros Reportedly Make Offer To Charlie Morton
The Astros have made an initial offer to bring right-hander Charlie Morton back to Houston, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The dollar amount of the reported offer is yet unclear, though Nightengale does specify that it’s a one-year contract with an option for a second year.
Vague as the terms may still be, it seems reasonable to expect that the total value of the pact of for less than $17.9MM. Houston surprisingly declined to make a qualifying offer at that rate to Morton, so it’d be curious to see them turn around and offer Morton anything north of that sum.
Morton, who turned 35 last week, at one point voiced uncertainty as to whether he planned to continue his playing career beyond the 2018 campaign, but he recently stated that he planned to continue pitching and would “love” to return to the Astros. However, he’s also made clear that he doesn’t plan to keep playing into his late 30s, citing a desire to spend time with his growing family. To that end, Morton suggested to The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan back in April that proximity to his wife’s family in Delaware could be a factor, were he to consider teams outside of Houston. The Phillies and Nationals would most closely meet that criteria.
Whether Morton wants to pitch another two years isn’t certain, but there’s little doubt that he should be able to find a strong multi-year offer on the open market after rapidly elevating his status upon signing with the Astros. Morton’s two-year, $14MM with Houston proved to be a remarkable bargain, as the righty made 55 starts in 2017-18 and pitched to an excellent 3.36 ERA with 10.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9 and a 49.6 percent ground-ball rate. Perhaps, given the uncertainty about how long he wants to continue his career, a one-year pact with a substantial value and some form of vesting or player option would hold appeal to Morton. However, a guaranteed two-year deal should materialize in free agency if he wishes to lock himself into another couple of years.
Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.
The Giants reassigned general manager and longtime front office fixture Bobby Evans in order to bring some fresh ideas into the mix after two straight disappointing seasons. Now, newly-hired president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi faces a tall order in streamlining an expensive, veteran-heavy, underachieving roster and helping guide the Giants back to contention.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Evan Longoria, 3B: $73.166MM through 2022 (includes $5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
- Johnny Cueto, SP: $71MM through 2021 (includes $5MM buyout of $22M club option for 2022)
- Buster Posey, C: $67.2MM through 2021 (includes $3MM buyout of $22MM club option for 2022)
- Brandon Belt, 1B: $48MM through 2021
- Brandon Crawford, SS: $45MM through 2021
- Jeff Samardzija, SP: $39MM through 2020
- Mark Melancon, RP: $28MM through 2020 (didn’t exercise opt-out clause)
- Madison Bumgarner, SP: $12MM in 2019 (Giants exercised club option)
- Tony Watson, RP: $6MM through 2020 (Watson can exercise player option for a $500K buyout to opt out of contract after 2019 season)
- Pablo Sandoval, 3B: $555K through 2019 (Giants exercised club option; Red Sox responsible for the rest of the remaining $22.445MM owed on Sandoval’s contract through 2019)
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in brackets; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Sam Dyson (4.142) – $5.4MM
- Joe Panik (4.100) – $4.2MM
- Will Smith (5.155) – $4.1MM
- Hunter Strickland (3.163) – $2.5MM
- Gorkys Hernandez (3.013) – $1.6MM
- Non-tender candidates: Panik, Hernandez
Free Agents
[San Francisco Giants Depth Chart | San Francisco Giants Payroll Information]
The top eight names in the “guaranteed contracts” section (everyone except Tony Watson and Pablo Sandoval) are slated to earn approximately $135.84MM in 2019, coming off a season in which the octet generated a combined 8.3 fWAR. That’s a lower total fWAR than Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, and Jacob deGrom produced as individuals in 2018, which is indicative of the troubling situation in which San Francisco finds itself heading into this new season. Between homegrown names that haven’t been producing and high-priced acquisitions that range from underwhelming to disastrous, the Giants simply don’t know what to expect going forward from most of the biggest names on their roster.
Into this situation comes Zaidi, who brings more of an analytically-minded approach to the Giants’ more traditionally “old-school” front office. Zaidi has experience finding efficiencies while working with payrolls both small (from his time in the Athletics’ front office) and large (as the Dodgers’ GM). Ideally, the Giants would love to see Zaidi replicate what he did in Los Angeles alongside president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman — cut tens of millions in salary while still reaching the postseason every year. The Dodgers went from touching the $300MM mark in payroll at the start of Zaidi’s tenure to getting under the luxury tax threshold this past season.
Unlike with the Dodgers, however, Zaidi inherits a Giants team that doesn’t have many polished prospects ready to step into regular roles. And, while the Dodgers had their share of underperforming big contracts, injury questions weren’t quite as prevalent as they are for the Giants’ priciest assets heading into 2019.
Johnny Cueto, for instance, almost surely won’t pitch next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August. Hip surgery could keep Buster Posey from the Opening Day lineup. Brandon Belt battled knee problems down the stretch and has a lengthy injury history. Jeff Samardzija missed much of 2018 with shoulder issues, and Mark Melancon’s two years in San Francisco have been punctuated by multiple trips to the disabled list. Brandon Crawford dealt with nagging knee problems last year, though he also simply hasn’t hit as much over the last two years as he did from 2014-16.
Madison Bumgarner has had his own share of DL time over the past two seasons, which was certainly one reason why his numbers (3.29 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.33 K/BB rate over 240 2/3 IP) were a step back from his usual ace standards. That said, Bumgarner is still easily the most intriguing trade chip/extension candidate the Giants have, and what the team decides to do with the southpaw this offseason may quite possibly determine their approach for the rest of the winter.
If Bumgarner is re-signed to another extension, the Giants will add to their ledger of long-term deals and perhaps signal that they’re aiming to get back into contention right away. A Bumgarner trade, however, could lead one of two scenarios. First, the Giants could approach 2019 as a bit of a mini-rebuild, to add young talent and clear some money in order to make a renewed push for 2020. Secondly, the Giants could deal Bumgarner as part of a rebuild on the fly, adding some MLB-ready pieces that would help them fill some holes immediately.
This is complete speculation on my part, and admittedly dealing Bumgarner without getting at least one blue-chip prospect in return would be a bit of a waste. But, the Giants could explore moving Bumgarner along with either Belt or Evan Longoria in the same deal, accepting only a moderate return of either mid-range prospects, or perhaps a big league player who could help the Giants at another position (such as maybe a third baseman to replace Longoria). The Giants are reportedly looking to move Longoria, who struggled in his first season outside of Tampa Bay and is still owed over $73MM through 2022. As for Belt, he was the most productive of the Giants’ long-term assets, though dealing him would free up first base for some combination of other possibilities: giving a look to prospect Chris Shaw, Posey splitting time between first and catcher, or targeting a potentially underpriced asset in free agency or trade. Both Belt and Bumgarner have partial no-trade clauses that allow them to block deals to 10 and eight teams, respectively, so it could be a bit tricky finding a willing trade partner for this scenario who isn’t on either player’s no-trade list.
Such a deal would give San Francisco more flexibility with both roster construction and the payroll. After they (barely) ducked under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold last season, the Giants reset their luxury penalization to zero, and they’ll pay only a first-timer minimum penalty should they surpass the $206MM payroll limit. So while the team doesn’t necessarily face any huge restraints in regards to spending, getting one big contract off the books is probably a logical step if the team is preparing to make another high-priced addition.
Signing Bryce Harper, of course, would be the biggest such move the Giants could make, though early reports have suggested the club isn’t going to be a major suitor for the 26-year-old free agent. San Francisco has the resources and the ownership track record to pursue just about any free agent, or to take on a big contract from another team in a trade, though it remains to seen if the Giants will be as aggressive in this regard under Zaidi as they were under the Brian Sabean/Bobby Evans regime.
If we’re mentioning Harper, it’s only fitting that we also at least throw Manny Machado‘s name out there. While Zaidi just a few months removed from bringing Machado to the Dodgers in a trade, a Machado/Giants connection seems unlikely at best. To make room for Machado at third base or shortstop, San Francisco would have to move either Longoria or Crawford, and neither player has much in the way of immediate trade value thanks to their salaries and lackluster 2018 seasons (plus, Crawford’s contract grants him full no-trade protection). Eating money to facilitate a Longoria/Crawford trade and also paying $350MM+ for Machado doesn’t seem like a very realistic proposition.
The two corner outfield positions and second base are the most pressing areas of need around the diamond for the Giants. Barring trades, the other spots will be covered by Longoria at third base, Crawford at shortstop, Belt at first base, defensively-gifted youngster Steven Duggar in center field, and Posey receiving the bulk of playing time behind the plate (while also getting some rest games as a first baseman). A reunion with veteran backup catcher Nick Hundley has been mentioned as a likely possibility while Posey is on the mend, with youngster Aramis Garcia also in the mix.
Austin Slater, Mac Williamson, Gorkys Hernandez (if he isn’t non-tendered), utilityman Alen Hanson, and Shaw are in the mix for bench duty for perhaps a share of a platoon in left or right field. For at least one of the two outfield positions, however, the Giants will surely add an established everyday player, either on the trade front or in free agency. If a record-setting contract for Harper is too rich for the Giants’ blood, other free agent options include Michael Brantley or old friend Andrew McCutchen. A.J. Pollock is a center fielder by trade, though if he is willing to consider a position change, he and Duggar would be a great defensive pairing in AT&T Park’s expansive outfield (or Pollock could play center himself if Duggar isn’t ready for everyday action).
Marwin Gonzalez‘s versatility makes him a good fit on most teams, though he’d be particularly useful to the Giants rotating between the corner outfield spots and second base. Joe Panik was a replacement-level player (0.1 fWAR) last season, and considering his lack of power, the downturn in his defensive metrics, and injury history — not to mention the glut of options on the second-base market — San Francisco could simply non-tender Panik and seek out a more reliable, cost-efficient, and/or controllable option. Jed Lowrie might be an interesting player to consider in this regard, as a familiar name to Zaidi from their time in Oakland and a quality player who wouldn’t require too lengthy a contract given his age (35 in April).
At a projected $4.2MM in arbitration, Panik isn’t a bank-breaker to retain, though the Giants could get themselves some extra cover at second base with a multi-position addition like Gonzalez. Not to say that the next Max Muncy or Chris Taylor is awaiting the Giants, but Zaidi’s Dodgers had a knack for finding those types of hidden-gem utility types. Looking elsewhere around the bench, Sandoval and Hanson line up as the utility options, and the Giants will have to sort through the aforementioned outfield candidates to figure out their backup situation. Williamson and Hernandez are both out of options, which could give them a leg up on the other possibilities.
San Francisco’s bullpen turned in a quietly solid year in 2018, headlined by Watson’s excellent year and Will Smith posting some strong numbers after returning from Tommy John surgery. Melancon also pitched well after making his season debut in June, and the Giants are hopeful that he can reclaim his old closer’s job and finally start to provide a quality return on that big contract. I’d guess the Giants might add another depth arm or two, though relief pitching doesn’t appear to be a major priority for the team this winter.
Losing Cueto is a big hit to the Giants’ rotation, though the team did find some unexpected starting help from rookies Dereck Rodriguez and Andrew Suarez last season. Those two 26-year-old arms are penciled into a starting five that features a lot of uncertainty, given Bumgarner’s trade situation, Samardzija’s health, and Chris Stratton‘s inconsistency. Ty Blach and minor league righties Shaun Anderson and Tyler Beede could also fight for consideration in Spring Training, though Beede will have to strongly rebound from significant struggles at both Triple-A and in a brief big league cameo.
It would theoretically help the Giants quite a bit to add another front-of-the-rotation type of pitcher who could both contribute in 2019 and also anchor the starting staff in the future, should Bumgarner depart in free agency or be shipped out in a trade. Top free agents like Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, or Nathan Eovaldi could all fit the model as a long-term answer, or a shorter-term solution like J.A. Happ could also be considered. The Giants are one of several teams who have scouted Yusei Kikuchi and the organization’s interest in the Japanese left-hander dates back years, so San Francisco will certainly be a player if Kikuchi is posted as expected.
While the Giants could shop at the high end of the market, it’s worth noting that the team hasn’t had much luck on expensive pitching contracts in recent years, between the Cueto and Samardzija signings and Matt Cain‘s extension. AT&T Park’s pitcher-friendly reputation make it a popular destination for relatively inexpensive veterans looking for a rebound year, so the Giants could pursue such arms in the hope of finding the next Derek Holland. The southpaw revived his career in San Francisco last season, posting a 3.57 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and 2.52 K/BB rate over 171 1/3 innings after signing a minor league contract that came with just a $1.5MM base salary. Holland is sure to land more in his latest trip through free agency, though his price tag won’t be too high for the Giants to consider a reunion.
There’s really no shortage of options facing Zaidi, who is open to any and all possibilities when it comes to getting the Giants on track as quickly as possible. A total rebuild doesn’t appear to be on the table this winter, nor does a major spending spree, but pretty much anything in between seems to be under consideration. The Giants could end up being as active and creative of any team this offseason, though it remains to be seen if enough can be done to get the club turned around in time to be a factor in what should be a competitive NL West in 2019.
AL East Notes: Sale, Swihart, Yankees, Chang, Blue Jays
Some items from around the AL East…
- Chris Sale is only under contract through the 2019 season, and his potential future in Boston “could be the key to the entire offseason” for the Red Sox, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes. The Sox are sure to discuss an extension with Sale this winter, though if they don’t feel the southpaw will be staying beyond the coming season (or the team is wary of spending big money on Sale over the long term), then Mastrodonato believes landing another frontline pitcher will become an immediate priority. If the Red Sox are able to extend Sale or believe they’ll be able to re-sign him next offseason, starting pitching likely won’t be a pressing priority this winter. In my opinion, I’d guess the Red Sox would pursue some type of controllable starter regardless of what happens with Sale, given that Rick Porcello will also be a free agent next winter and Eduardo Rodriguez‘s injury history makes him a bit of a question mark for 2019.
- Also from Mastrodonato’s piece, he notes that the Red Sox will be bringing Blake Swihart to Spring Training as a catcher. With Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon ahead of Swihart on the catching depth chart, the team experimented with Swihart as a utility player last season in an attempt to get him into the lineup, with unremarkable results. While Swihart will continue to get some work at multiple positions, his trade value would be maximized if he could stick behind the plate. Swihart has been the focus of trade rumors for well over a year, and the Red Sox were known to have a very high asking price in talks with other teams as of last May. Those demands seemed high at the time, given Swihart’s struggles to break through as a Major League player, and he did little to raise his stock over the rest of the season.
- The Yankees “pushed hard” to acquire infield prospect Yu Chang from the Indians when the two teams were discussing the Andrew Miller trade in the summer of 2016, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports. Chang has made steady progress since, with MLB.com currently ranking him as the sixth-best prospect in the Tribe’s system following a .256/.330/.411 performance over 518 PA at Triple-A last season. It isn’t known if New York still has Chang on its radar, though with the Yankees recently showing interest in trading for one of Cleveland’s top starters, Chang could become a target again if the two clubs expand talks into a multi-player trade. Pluto also notes that other teams have called the Indians about Chang in trade discussions.
- Tuesday is the deadline for teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, and the Blue Jays are one of several teams that face losing at least one player, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes. With newly-acquired Tyler Thornton requiring Rule 5 protection, Toronto currently has 36 players on its 40-man, with Davidi figuring that pitching prospects Hector Perez, Patrick Murphy, and Yennsy Diaz will account for three of the four open spots. This leaves multiple Rule 5-eligible prospects vying for just one roster spot, though the Jays could also create more space with trades or releases before Tuesday’s deadline. Yangervis Solarte is a likely non-tender candidate, for instance, and there has been speculation has the Jays could part ways with former top prospect Dalton Pompey, who is out of options and seemingly buried on Toronto’s depth chart. Davidi’s piece also contains a broader overview of the challenges that teams face when they have a surplus of minor league talent at one or more positions, as a club can risk losing or overlooking someone simply due to lack of playing time, only to see that player blossom elsewhere.
International Transactions: 11/18/18
Here’s the roundup of some familiar North American names heading to play ball overseas…
- The KT Wiz of the Korean Baseball Organization has announced the signing of right-hander Raul Alcantara, according to San Kang of Sports Dong-A (hat tip to MyKBO.net’s Dan Kurtz). The contract will pay Alcantara $650K for the coming KBO season. The righty was outrighted off the Athletics’ 40-man roster at the end of Spring Training, and then posted a 5.29 ERA, 5.7 K/9, and 3.79 K/BB rate over 83 1/3 innings for Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate, working as a starter in 10 of his 32 games. Over 46 1/3 IP for the A’s at the big league level in 2016-17, Alcantara managed just a 7.19 ERA, and he allowed a whopping 14 homers over that limited stretch.
- In other news from the KBO, the Kia Tigers announced that they are working on a contract with outfielder Jeremy Hazelbaker (hat tip to Dan Kurtz once again), though a deal is not yet official. Hazelbaker began the 2018 season as a member of the Diamondbacks organization before a pair of trades sent him to the Rays and then to the Twins, though he spend the entire season at the Triple-A level, hitting only .204/.298/.385 over 356 combined PA. The 31-year-old Hazelbaker posted a much better batting line in his brief exposure to Major League pitching in 2016-17, hitting .258/.327/.500 over 285 career plate appearances for the Cardinals and D’Backs. Originally a fourth-round pick for the Red Sox in 2009, Hazelbaker has bounced around six teams in his pro career and will now look for a change of scenery in South Korea.