Click here to view the transcript for MLBTR Chat With Jason Martinez: September 12, 2018
Yu Darvish Undergoes Arthroscopic Elbow Surgery
Right-hander Yu Darvish underwent an arthroscopic debridement of his right elbow today, the team announced to reporters (Twitter link via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times). The procedure came on the heels of a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews. The surgery doesn’t impact Darvish’s timeline to return to the Cubs, as he was already down for the season due to a stress reaction in his elbow, and he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training 2019.
The operation is the latest data point in a nightmarish first season of Darvish’s six-year, $126MM contract with the Cubs. The right-hander made just eight starts for the team in 2018, missing time on the disabled list due to an assortment of arm-related injuries before news of the stress reaction in his elbow definitively brought his season to a close. Though his timeline remains unchanged, the optics won’t win Darvish any more support among a Cubs fanbase that has spent much of the season lamenting the signing as he’s struggled through his various injuries.
Neither Darvish nor fellow free-agent signee Tyler Chatwood (three years, $38MM) has paid dividends for the Cubs, though Chicago nonetheless holds a two-game lead over the Brewers in the National League Central with 18 games left to play. Though their high-priced pair of offseason additions didn’t pan out (at least not yet), president of baseball ops Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer were proactive on the trade market in looking to bolster the club this summer, most notably adding lefty Cole Hamels and infielder Daniel Murphy in a pair of swaps. Hamels, in particular, has been a godsend for skipper Joe Maddon’s rotation, hurling 50 2/3 innings of 1.42 ERA ball through the same number of starts Darvish made (eight).
Chicago still owes the 32-year-old Darvish a hefty $101MM over the next five seasons as part of his front-loaded deal, so the organization has little choice but to hope that an extended period of rest will allow him to return to form, at least to some extent, in 2019 and beyond. Darvish did average 11 strikeouts per nine innings pitched in 2018, and his velocity was right in line with its previous levels, so there’s some cause for optimism. He’ll need to rein in his control (4.7 BB/9, 1.58 HR/9) moving forward if he’s to truly be an asset in the rotation, though.
Royals Release Eric Stout
Sept. 12: Stout has cleared waivers and is now a free agent, the team announced.
Sept. 10: The Royals announced Monday that they’ve requested unconditional release waivers on left-handed reliever Eric Stout. The 25-year-old was designated for assignment last week when Kansas City claimed Ben Lively off outright waivers from the Phillies.
Stout had a brief run in the Majors with the Royals earlier this season, but he as hammered for seven runs (six earned) in 2 1/3 innings. His struggles extended to Triple-A Omaha, where he pitched to a 4.75 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9 and a 37.8 percent grounder rate through 55 innings. Lefties have posted a .725 OPS against Stout between the Majors and Minors this season, but he held left-handed opponents to a terrible .193/.264/.301 batting line with a 22.5 percent strikeout rate and a 7.5 percent walk rate in Omaha a year ago.
The decision to release Stout stems from the fact that he was on the minor league disabled list at the time the Royals decided they needed a roster spot to claim Lively. Injured players can’t be run through outright waivers during the season, so Stout will instead be released if and when he clears release waivers. At that point, common for players in these situations to re-sign a new minor league deal, though Stout will also have the opportunity to explore the market and field interest from 29 other teams.
Nationals Activate Jeremy Hellickson
The Nationals announced today that they have activated righty Jeremy Hellickson from the disabled list. He had been sidelined since suffering a wrist sprain during his last outing on August 15th.
It’s too late now for Hellickson to help the Nats crawl back into contention. And he wouldn’t be eligible for the postseason if moved via trade. He will, however, add another arm to the mix while showcasing showcase for his own upcoming free agency.
Hellickson has neared the open market under quite different circumstances twice already. He received a qualifying offer from the Phillies after a strong 2016 campaign, but pitched poorly in 2017 after taking the hefty one-year deal. That set up a disappointing first foray into free agency, when he settled for a minors deal in D.C. in the middle of Spring Training.
Hellickson’s current contract came with only a $2MM base salary, though it did also include up to $4MM in incentives. Details on that clause have not yet been publicized, though it’s certainly possible that new thresholds could still be within reach.
To this point of the season, Hellickson has thrown 88 1/3 innings over 18 starts. That’s an average of less than five frames per outing, though that usage was by design rather than a reflection of poor pitching. In fact, Hellickson has thrived in this carefully controlled role, working to a 3.57 ERA with 6.5 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 along with a career-best 46.2% groundball rate.
In most ways, Hellickson looks to be much the same pitcher he always has been. By mostly eliminating his exposure to opposing lineups for a third time in a given outing, though, the Nats have lopped off his typically dreadful results in such situations. Perhaps that approach best explains the good year; of course, he’s also allowing only a .254 BABIP and is outperforming the expectations of ERA estimators (4.25 FIP, 4.20 xFIP, 4.27 SIERA).
What that’s worth on the open market remains to be seen. But Hellickson has surely thrown well enough to warrant a deal that comes with a 40-man spot. It should help that he’ll have a chance to tamp down any health questions by returning for the last few weeks of the season, even if that means working out of the bullpen.
Tigers Owner Christopher Ilitch Expresses Optimism In Team’s Outlook
Addressing the media yesterday, Tigers owner Christopher Ilitch struck a notably optimistic tone regarding his organization’s outlook. Evan Woodbery of MLive.com was among those to cover the chat; we’ll tick through a few items of particular note here.
Needless to say, with a 59-86 record, the current roster is not up to snuff. But that doesn’t mean the current campaign hasn’t been productive in the estimation of the man who sits top the organizational hierarchy.
As Ilitch put it, “I think this year has been a tremendous year of progress for the Detroit Tigers.” He credited the major-league club and its staff for producing “a fun team to watch,” even if it isn’t one that has won many games.
Of course, that substandard record was widely anticipated entering the year. GM Al Avila has been tasked with building for the future, rather than prioritizing the present. The Opening Day payroll was down by about $75MM against its 2016-17 levels and stands to fall yet further in the seasons to come.
The “tremendous” season cited by Ilitch, then, has less to do with the MLB showing than his take on the broader organizational overhaul efforts undertaken in this new era for the franchise. He explained:
“I see how hard Al Avila and his staff worked to enhance our scouting, our analytics, our player development. Our goal is very clear: We are working to build a world-class organization that will compete for championships on a sustainable basis. And I’m very committed to providing all of the resources and assets that are necessary to accomplish that.”
There’s little question that the Tigers have accumulated some intriguing young assets. The club’s farm is considered especially deep in pitching, led by recent first overall draft pick Casey Mize and including several other players added in recent drafts and trades.
Just when and how the club will begin to turn the corner again toward contention remains to be seen, but continued progress from those young arms could perhaps force the matter in relatively short order. Of course, health and development remain risk factors. And gathering up a new position-player core will also represent a challenge.
Eventually, we’ll find out whether Ilitch will spend to supplement the roster as lavishly as his father did, but it seems rather unlikely that the openness of his wallet will be tested full this coming offseason. Still, the club could consider some targeted free-agent spending, particularly if there’s good value to be had on a risky or more youthful player. And extensions could always be explored, though Nicholas Castellanos is the only realistic candidate who’ll be entering his walk year.
Luis Urias Unlikely To Return In 2018 After Hamstring Injury
The Padres do not expect recently promoted infield prospect Luis Urias to return to action this season after suffering a hamstring injury last night, as MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell reports. Though the full extent of the injury isn’t yet known, San Diego skipper Andy Green says it already seems “doubtful” Urias will make it back in 2018.
Clearly, with just over two weeks left to play, there isn’t a lot of time remaining to make it back onto the field. Most importantly, the Friars will want to be sure not to push a critical young player too hard at this late stage of a noncompetitive season.
Urias won’t turn 22 until next June, but he forced his way onto the MLB roster recently with another quality showing in the upper minors. In his 533 Triple-A plate appearances this season, Urias hit a career-high eight home runs and slashed an impressive .296/.398/.447.
Of course, Urias hasn’t been quite as impressive in his very first attempt at major-league pitching. In a dozen games, he has produced a .208/.264/.354 slash with two home runs and an uncharacteristic mix of ten strikeouts and just three walks.
That limited showing doesn’t detract from Urias’s lofty promise. And it’s certainly not going to prevent him from competing for a MLB job in camp next year. Still, that less-than-compelling output matters somewhat to his near-future roster outlook. Particularly if the hammy tweak sidelines Urias the rest of the way, he arguably will not have shown enough to lock up a starting role in advance of Spring Training.
Hisashi Iwakuma To Return To Japan
Veteran right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma tells Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times that he will conclude his tenure with the Mariners and return to his native Japan. That does not mean, however, that he’s calling his playing career quits.
Iwakuma had been trying to return from shoulder surgery, but only made it to a pair of rehab appearances. While he was not able to get all the way back to the big league mound, the 37-year-old says he still hopes to pitch in the Nippon Professional Baseball League in the future.
As Iwakuma put it: “Looking at the big picture, it’s been long process of rehab, and finally in this long tunnel, I’m starting to see light. … I wanted to explore how much more I could do back in Japan and see if there any teams are interested in me.”
Though he did not come to the majors until his age-31 season, following a strong decade-long NPB run, Iwakuma certainly made his mark at the game’s highest level. He ended up throwing 883 2/3 innings of 3.42 ERA ball, all of them coming with the Seattle organization.
It’s easy to forget just how effective ’Kuma was over the years. He never posted gaudy strikeout rates, but rarely gave up free passes and (in his first three seasons, at least) drew groundballs on about half the balls put in play against him.
His best overall season, unquestionably, came in 2013. Iwakuma came up one out shy of accumulating 220 frames and ended the year with a 2.66 ERA and 7.6 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9. He earned his lone All-Star nod in the midst of that campaign, which ended with a third-place finish in the American League Cy Young voting.
Of course, injuries limited Iwakuma more recently. Problems identified on his physical scuttled a three-year, $45MM contract with the Dodgers after the 2015 season. He ended up returning to the M’s on a deal that included a $12MM guarantee and rolling vesting/club options. While the first campaign under that agreement worked out well enough, as Iwakuma threw 199 innings with a 4.12 ERA, he only made six starts with the team in the 2017 season. After the option was declined, Iwakuma ended up returning on a minor-league deal — the same contract that is now coming to a conclusion.
As he prepares to return to Japan, it’s interesting to look back on the circumstances surrounding his original decision to cross the Pacific. Iwakuma was actually posted in the fall of 2010, with the Athletics winning the bidding under the system in place at that time. When Oakland failed to work out a deal with Iwakuma, he pitched a final season in Japan before drawing interest again as a free agent.
Unfortunately, though he was effective in that intervening campaign, Iwakuma also was limited that year by shoulder issues. He ended up signing an incentive-laden, one-year deal with the M’s for only a $1.5MM guarantee. The Seattle club wisely doubled down on that initial investment in the ensuing offseason with a two-year, $14MM extension that included a cheap, $7MM option for the 2015 season.
Though he spent a relatively brief portion of his career in the majors, Iwakuma rates as one of the better Japanese starters ever to ply his trade at the game’s highest level. Where does he rate among them? That’s up for debate, certainly, but those interested in weighing the question can check out this list I compiled of ten prominent Japanese hurlers who’ve compile a notable number of MLB starts.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Lotte Giants Place Felix Doubront On Waivers
The Korea Baseball Organization’s Lotte Giants announced today that they have placed lefty Felix Doubront on waivers, as Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net notes on Twitter (Naver article in Korean). That will presumably bring an end to his tenure with the club.
The move comes on the heels of a particularly rough series of outings for the veteran southpaw. (Statistics via MyKBOStats.com.) He hasn’t made it out of the fourth inning in any of his past three starts, allowing 14 earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings. That poor stretch has pushed Doubront’s season ERA up to 4.92 through 137 1/3 innings, over which he has compiled 109 strikeouts against 62 walks.
We last saw Doubront stateside last season, when he spent time at Triple-A with the Athletics. But the 30-year-old Venezuelan hasn’t appeared in the big leagues since 2015. All told, he owns a 4.89 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 513 2/3 MLB frames, the vast majority of them coming in a starting role.
Injury Notes: Stroman, Braves, Ozuna, Tropeano
Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman “probably” won’t pitch again in 2018, manager John Gibbons told reporters today (Twitter links via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). He’s been slowed by a blister on his pitching hand of late and simply won’t have enough time to build back up for a return. Stroman last appeared on Sept. 3 — his only appearance since Aug. 17 — and lasted just 1 2/3 innings. If his season does indeed prove to be over, it’ll go down as a forgettable one for the righty. In 102 1/3 innings, Stroman has posted a dismal 5.54 ERA with 6.8 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9, though his elite ground-ball tendencies and a fluky low strand rate have led fielding-independent metrics to paint a more optimistic picture (3.91 FIP, 3.84 xFIP, 4.04 SIERA). Stroman will be arbitration-eligible for the third time this winter as a Super Two player and will earn a modest raise on this year’s $6.5MM salary. He’s controlled through the 2020 season.
Some more notable injury updates from around the league…
- The NL East-leading Braves should have Arodys Vizcaino back in action on Friday of this week, per Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter links), but righty Jose Ramirez won’t pitch again this season. Vizcaino hasn’t pitched since mid-July due to a shoulder issue and was moved to the 60-day DL earlier this month when the Braves made a series of moves to accommodate September roster expansion. They’ll need to make a 40-man move to accommodate Vizcaino’s return; Ramirez, already on the 60-day DL with a shoulder problem of his own, won’t be that move. Meanwhile, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that third baseman Johan Camargo exited tonight’s game due to groin tightness. The team will likely have additional information available either after the game or tomorrow morning.
- Mark Saxon of The Athletic takes a look at the shoulder troubles that have plagued Marcell Ozuna all season (subscription required). Saxon notes that Ozuna has had difficulty with day-to-day tasks such as taking off a sweatshirt in recent weeks and has played through discomfort all season. Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak again acknowledged that the team was aware of some ongoing shoulder troubles with Ozuna when trading for him but felt, if anything, they’d impact his throwing from the outfield — not his offense. Still, Mozeliak says surgery has not been recommended for Ozuna, so it seems he’ll hope rest, rehab and perhaps physical therapy this offseason can help. To his credit, Ozuna has absolutely raked at a .333/.371/.615 clip in his past 143 PAs even while playing through that pain.
- The Angels are shutting down right-hander Nick Tropeano for the season, tweets Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. The right-hander’s rehab stint was recently halted, and Fletcher adds that he’ll undergo a platelet-rich plasma injection in his right shoulder in hopes of avoiding offseason surgery. Three separate trips to the DL for shoulder issues limited Tropeano to just 76 innings in 2018, and he struggled to a 4.74 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9 in that time. Those 76 frames were actually a career-high for the 28-year-old Tropeano, whose career has been proliferated by injuries — most notably Tommy John surgery in 2016. He’ll be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter.
Elvis Andrus Unlikely To Exercise Opt-Out Clause
Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus addressed the opt-out clause in his contract with reporters yesterday, strongly suggesting that he doesn’t plan on testing free agency this winter (link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). Andrus, 30, plainly stated that he is “for sure” coming back to the Rangers next season before backpedaling a bit and emphasizing that no final decision will be made until the offseason.
It’s not much of a surprise to hear Andrus suggest he’ll forgo the opt-out provision in his eight-year, $120MM contract. As I noted last week when running through the opt-outs around the league, Clayton Kershaw is the only player with an opt-out clause in this year’s free-agent class who can be considered likely to opt out. While Andrus had the next-best case, his chances of opting out are lowered by the fact that he has a second opt-out clause in his contract following the 2019 campaign.
Had Andrus performed at a level commensurate with his 2016-17 output — combined .299/.348/.457 with 28 homers and 49 steals in 1257 plate appearances — there’d have been a strong chance he’d opt out of the remaining four years and $58MM. He enjoyed a strong start to the season for the first couple of weeks but then missed just under seven weeks of action after being hit by a pitch and sustaining a fractured elbow.
Since returning, Andrus’ production hasn’t matched his previous levels, as some may have expected given the nature of his injury. Andrus was hitting .327/.426/.500 through his first 61 plate appearances this year but has stumbled to a .253/.293/.365 slash in 307 PAs since returning. He’s made some improvements since the All-Star break, but it’d still be a stretch to imagine him topping $58MM in free agency this winter — especially considering he’d surely be hit with a qualifying offer upon opting out. (Were he to walk away from four years and $58MM, the Rangers would surely feel confident he’d do the same if presented with a one-year offer worth around $18MM.)
Andrus can return for a guaranteed $15MM in 2019 and then forgo the remaining $43MM on his contract in the event that he has a better season at the plate. At that point, agent Scott Boras could pitch him as a quality defensive shortstop who has had three strong offensive seasons in his past four years, with the lone disappointment coming after suffering a fairly notable elbow injury that impacted his swing. And, should Andrus incur additional injuries or see his struggles at the plate continue, he’ll have the safety net of a fairly hefty three-year guarantee on which to fall back.
