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2018-19 Market Snapshot: Second Base

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This is the third installment in our Market Snapshot series. Previously, we covered the catching market and the first base market. Next up, we’ll take a look at second base.

Teams In Need

The Athletics could see Jed Lowrie hit the open market, though there’s been talk of an extension. If he’s not re-signed, the A’s have Franklin Barreto in Triple-A. Similarly, the Rockies could lose DJ LeMahieu but have prospects Brendan Rodgers and Garrett Hampson in the upper minors.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, will lose Chase Utley to retirement while Brian Dozier reaches free agency. One of the game’s great curators of depth, the Dodgers organization isn’t hurting for replacement options with Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez and Max Muncy on hand.

The Twins sent Dozier to L.A. and replaced him with Logan Forsythe, who’s also a free agent. Top prospect Nick Gordon could pair with Jorge Polanco up the middle, but Gordon has yet to hit in Triple-A. The Nationals shipped out Daniel Murphy and received little from Wilmer Difo following that swap. The Pirates, too, could be in need if Josh Harrison’s option is bought out.

It’s possible that the Cardinals could enter the mix for an offensive boost if they decide to move on from Kolten Wong’s glove-first approach. Perhaps the Angels feel set with David Fletcher, but they may want a more impactful bat. The rebuilding Tigers don’t have an established option but could give prospect Dawel Lugo an audition. And if the Indians can jettison Jason Kipnis’ contract, they could seek help at the keystone, too (moving Jose Ramirez back to third base).

Free Agents

Potential Regulars: DJ LeMahieu, Jed Lowrie, Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy, Ian Kinsler

Lowrie is coming off his best season but has been open about his desire to remain with the A’s. He may never reach the market, and even if he does, Oakland will try to retain him. LeMahieu has carved out a nice spot as a high-average hitter with quality glovework but minimal power. Dozier was the game’s most powerful second baseman by a landslide from 2015-17 but played through a knee injury in 2018 and had his worst full season since 2013. Murphy started slow in his return from knee surgery but hit .322/.358/.502 in his final 293 PAs. Kinsler will be 37 next June, but he’s still an elite defender even as his bat continues to decline.

Timeshare/Utility/Reserve Options: Josh Harrison, Logan Forsythe, Daniel Descalso, Asdrubal Cabrera, Neil Walker

Harrison had the worst full season of his career, so the cost-conscious Pirates may simply buy out his option. He can play at least three positions, though, and was a quality regular as recently as 2017. Forsythe’s 2018 season was a nightmare, but he’s spent much of his career giving left-handed pitchers fits. He can play either second or third and hit much better following a July trade to Minnesota. Descalso quietly had his best season at the plate and is capable of playing all over the diamond. He’ll be 32 next season but makes for a potential utility piece. Switch-hitters Cabrera and Walker (.249/.349/.438 from July 1 through season’s end) can still provide some value at the plate, but their defensive abilities are more in question.

Depth: Dixon Machado, Gordon Beckham, Ryan Goins, Eric Sogard, Sean Rodriguez, Brad Miller, Andrew Romine

Trade Targets

Potential Regulars: Whit Merrifield, Scooter Gennett, Starlin Castro, Kolten Wong, Ketel Marte, Cesar Hernandez, Joe Panik, Jason Kipnis, Devon Travis

The late-blooming Merrifield has established himself as one of baseball’s premier second basemen over the past two seasons. He’s controlled another four years, making him a premium trade chip who could fetch some MLB-ready pieces, as GM Dayton Moore has targeted in other deals. Gennett, too, has broken out over the past two years, though he’s only controlled for one more season. A Cincinnati native, Gennett hopes to stay with the Reds, and the feeling seems mutual. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $10.7MM through arbitration, but an extension is possible.

Castro (one year, $12MM plus a 2020 option) had another solid season but is somewhat expensive relative to his potentially available peers. Wong (2/$17.25MM plus 2021 option) was one of baseball’s premier defenders in 2018 (19 Defensive Runs Saved, 13.4 Ultimate Zone Rating) but has persistently been in trade rumors for the past couple seasons. Marte, 25 tomorrow, isn’t a star but provided average offense and solid defense in ’18 and comes with cost certainty (4/$19MM remaining plus two club options).

The Phillies are reportedly willing to deal anyone other than Rhys Hoskins and Aaron Nola, and the 28-year-old Hernandez is a steady hitter controlled through 2020. He’s due a raise in arbitration ($8.9MM projection). Also arb-eligible for two more years ($4.2MM projection for ’19), Panik had a career-worst season and could be a change-of-scenery candidate depending on the views of the new Giants GM.

Cleveland would presumably love to shed the remaining year and $17MM on Kipnis’ deal (he also has an option for 2020) as the organization faces payroll constraints and has numerous holes to fill. Given his .230/.315/.389 slash, though, Kipnis would be tough to move.

It’s worth wondering if the Jays would move on from the injury-prone Travis. He’s controlled for another two seasons ($2.4MM arb projection), but the Jays have alternatives, including Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the bigs and top prospect Bo Bichette looming.

Timeshare/Utility/Reserve Options: Yangervis Solarte, Derek Dietrich, Cory Spangenberg, Carlos Asuaje, Jose Pirela, Tyler Wade, Alen Hanson, Dilson Herrera

Solarte had an awful first season with the Jays but was a steadily productive player with the Padres, so perhaps a team would dub his $5.5MM option a worthy gamble. Dietrich, a perennial trade candidate like many Marlins, is a solid hitter with no real defensive home. He’s controlled through 2020 and projected at $4.8MM in 2019.

The Padres have three potential trade pieces now that top prospect Luis Urias is ready for a big league look. None of Spangenberg, Asuaje or Pirela hit in the Majors in 2018, though. Asuaje is the youngest of the bunch and has another five seasons of control, perhaps making him the most desirable. It’s a similar tale for Wade with the Yankees; the 24-year-old has hit in Triple-A but is a ways down the depth chart and has yet to produce in the Majors.

Hanson and Herrera are former Top 100 prospects who’ve yet to perform in the Majors. Hanson did show surprising pop against righties with the Giants, but his lack of plate discipline held him to a .275 OBP. Herrera returned from shoulder woes with a strong Triple-A season, but he didn’t hit in 97 MLB plate appearances down the stretch and would be blocked if the Reds extend Gennett.

Padres Release Jose Torres

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Oct. 10: The Padres released Torres after he unsurprisingly cleared waivers earlier this morning, MLBTR has learned.

Oct. 4: The Padres have designated left-hander Jose Torres for assignment, as per MLB.com’s official transactions listing.  Torres’ roster status had to be addressed once his 100-game suspension under the MLB/MLBPA joint domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy was up at season’s end.

Torres didn’t pitch in 2018 after he was charged with multiple criminal offenses during the offseason, stemming from a domestic disturbance incident where Torres was accused of pointing a gun at a woman with whom he was involved in a domestic relationship.  Torres’ charges included assault with a deadly weapon, intimidation, and criminal damage, as well as a charge for possession of marijuana.  He reportedly plead guilty to those charges in March. The Padres placed Torres on their restricted list in February, and Major League Baseball issued Torres with the 100-game suspension in June.

Torres, 25, made his big league debut in 2016 and then posted a 4.21 ERA, 8.3 K/9, and 3.94 K/BB rate over 68 1/3 innings in 2017.  With the Padres facing a 40-man roster crunch this winter as some of their best prospects become eligible for the Rule 5 draft, it isn’t surprising that Torres would be DFA’d rather than restored to the 40-man.  Torres could be outrighted to the minors if isn’t claimed or acquired during his 10-day DFA period, or it’s possible the Padres could simply release him altogether given the severity of his off-the-field situation.

Reds Claim Juan Graterol

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The Reds announced Wednesday that they’ve claimed catcher Juan Graterol off waivers from the Twins after he’d been placed on outright waivers. Cincinnati already had a pair of open 40-man roster spots, so not corresponding move is necessary.

Graterol, 29, only appeared in three games with the Twins after having his contract selected in late September. He’d previously appeared in 58 games at the Major League level with the Angels organization and is a lifetime .217/.227/.274 hitter in 111 plate appearances as a big leaguer. He’s notched a more respectable .289/.316/.346 slash in 572 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, but Graterol is known more as a defensive-minded backstop than a threat at the plate. He’s halted 38 percent of stolen-bases attempts against him in parts of 13 minor league seasons and thrown out 12 of 36 potential base thieves in the Majors (33 percent). He’s also routinely posted average or better framing numbers, per Baseball Prospectus.

Despite his shortcomings at the plate, Graterol’s defensive capabilities have made him a popular target on the waiver wire in the past. In the 2016-17 offseason, for instance, he went from the Angels, to the Reds, to the Diamondbacks, back to the Angels and then to the Blue Jays via waiver claim in a span of two months. After opening the season in the Jays organization, he was then flipped back to the Angels in a minor trade. Graterol still has a minor league option remaining beyond the 2018 season, so if he survives the winter on a 40-man roster (be it with the Reds or another organization), his team in Spring Training will be able to send him to the minors without first exposing him to waivers.

Diamondbacks Outright Patrick Kivlehan

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The Diamondbacks announced today that they have outrighted outfielder Patrick Kivlehan to Triple-A. Presumably, then, he has already cleared waivers.

Kivlehan, 28, has the right to reject the assignment in favor of free agency. He was previously outrighted from the Reds’ 40-man roster after the 2017 season.

Arizona added Kivlehan in a late-season swap with the Mets. He helped the Snakes fill out their roster down the stretch but only received 14 plate appearances in nine games.

All told, Kivlehan is a .208/.302/.401 hitter in his 242 career MLB plate appearances, most of which came in 2017 with Cincinnati. Over parts of three seasons at Triple-A, the former fourth-rounder carries a .269/.325/.471 slash with 54 home runs in 1,352 plate appearances.

Nationals Acquire Kyle Barraclough

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The Nationals announced that they have acquired reliever Kyle Barraclough in a trade with the Marlins. $1MM of international bonus availability will head to Miami in the swap, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports (via Twitter).

This transaction comes as a surprise, though the timing may well be explained by the Marlins’ well-known efforts to land top Cuban prospect Victor Victor Mesa. This’ll pad the team’s bonus coffers as it pursues Mesa — also a reputed target of the Orioles — and other talented amateur players who hail from outside of North America.

For the Nats, meanwhile, the move slots in a high-powered relief arm at a palatable price. The club was barred from spending more than $300K on the current international market regardless. And Barraclough projects to earn only $1.9MM in his first trip through arbitration.

Of course, there’s a reason that Barraclough was available for a return that doesn’t really sting his new club. The 28-year-old continued to show big velocity and swing-and-miss stuff in 2018 — he owns a career rate of 11.5 strikeouts per nine — but he continued to deal with major control problems and his results plummeted over the course of the season.

Indeed, after he held 170 opposing hitters to a putrid .126/.254/.217 slash to open the season, the next 75 to step in the box against Barraclough battered him to the tune of a .367/.486/.667 batting line. It’s hard to know just what went wrong, though some release-point issues seem to correlate with changes in the movement of his arsenal. This all occurred in the same general mid-season timeframe as Barraclough’s dip in effectiveness and trip to the DL for a shoulder impingement.

For the Nats, then, this move injects a rather volatile piece into the bullpen. There’s certainly some upside, though; indeed, Barraclough has delivered 218 2/3 innings of 3.21 ERA ball in his career despite the fact that he has consistently issued more than five free passes per nine innings. If he pans out, he’ll also be controllable for two additional seasons.

Surely, the Marlins hoped not long ago that they’d be able to get more for a controllable power arm with high-leverage experience. Unfortunately, though, they ultimately decided to cash him in at a moment when there was an opportunity to take a more future-oriented risk. In some regards, that’s not so different from the reasoning that brought Barraclough to Miami in the first place, when he was picked up in a mid-season deal that sent then-struggling closer Steve Cishek to the Cardinals.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Brad Ziegler Announces Retirement

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Veteran reliever Brad Ziegler has announced his retirement from the game of baseball (Twitter link). The submariner, who chose the occasion of his 39th birthday to spread the news, has appeared in 11 MLB seasons and compiled over seven hundred innings on the hill.

It has certainly been quite a run for a player who got his start as a 20th-round draft pick and did not touch the majors until his age-28 season. As Ziegler himself notes in his announcement, his outlook was dubious at best when he was transformed from a marginal starting pitching prospect into a drop-down reliever.

As it turns out, Ziegler has led all relievers in baseball in innings pitched and appearances since making his debut in 2008. Despite working in the mid-eighties with his signature sinker, Ziegler befuddled MLB hitters all along the way.

It didn’t take long for Ziegler to announce his presence once he finally did debut. He spun a record-setting 39 scoreless frames for the Athletics in his rookie campaign.

Inevitably, the league adjusted somewhat. And Ziegler was always somewhat limited by his lack of swing-and-miss stuff. But he proceeded to reel off an amazing span of productive campaigns in Oakland and then (after a mid-2011 trade) with the Diamondbacks. From 2008 through 2016, Ziegler tossed nearly six hundred frames while maintaining a 2.44 ERA and picking up 85 saves.

The end of that stretch of excellence, of course, did not come with either of those organizations. Ziegler was shipped from Arizona to the Red Sox at the 2016 trade deadline, leading to a quality run down the stretch in Boston.

Ziegler ended up carrying that momentum into free agency, landing a two-year, $16MM deal from the Marlins. Things didn’t go as hoped, but Ziegler did figure out a way to turn things around in 2018. He threw well enough in the run-up to the deadline that he landed back in Arizona to finish out his career.

Ultimately, Ziegler will be remembered for being a highly-respected, consistent, and exceedingly durable reliever. He led all of baseball, in fact, with 82 appearances in his final campaign. Ziegler also notably tallied more than one hundred career saves.

Above all else, though, his absurd 66.7% career groundball rate sets a mark that future hurlers of his ilk will be measured by. That stands as a record for the modern era in which such statistics are available. (You can safely ignore the first name on that list, as it’s based only on a one-appearance sample in 2002, the first year that GB% is computed.)

It is not yet known what Ziegler will pursue next, but the long-time player’s union representative will surely have his choice of opportunities in and around the game of baseball. MLBTR congratulates him on an excellent career and wishes him the best of luck in his future endeavors. (For the record, this offer still stands!)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor MLB Transactions: 10/10/18

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We’ll use this post to track the day’s minor moves from around the game …

  • The Blue Jays have outrighted infielder/outfielder Jon Berti after he cleared waivers, per the MLB.com transactions page. Added to the roster quite late in the season after eight years as a minor-leaguer, Berti never figured to hold a 40-man spot throughout the winter. The 28-year-old, a former 18th-round draft pick, did rap four base hits in 15 plate appearances during his brief debut showing in the bigs. In his 316 Double-A plate appearances this year, he slashed a productive .314/.399/.498.
  • Likewise, southpaw Jose Torres was outrighted by the Padres after being designated for assignment recently. The circumstances are rather different in his case, as his 40-man status had to be addressed after he was reinstated by the league following a 100-game ban relating to domestic violence charges. Torres, who did not appear at any level this year, will remain under control of the San Diego organization, though his future as a professional baseball player certainly appears to be in question.

2018-19 Market Snapshot: First Base

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This is the second installment in our Market Snapshot series. Previously, we covered the catching market. Today, we’ll turn to the first base position.

Teams In Need

Quite a few organizations went without regulars at the first base position in 2018, seemingly content with timeshare situations. That could again be the case, though it’s also possible that a few tantalizing trade targets might lead to a re-thinking on the part of some clubs.

Among likely contenders, only the Rockies jump off the page with an opening — assuming, at least, that they will move Ian Desmond to an outfield or utility role of some kind. Teams like the Mariners and Twins could arguably stand to add at the position, but also might address it by shuffling existing players.

Of course, others could free up space if they see an opportunity to improve. The Yankees, for instance, will have to decide how much they wish to rely upon Luke Voit (while also considering how their DH and catching situations will play out). The Red Sox, Nationals, and Angels are among the clubs that’ll at least be looking for complementary pieces capable of spending some time in the first base mix.

Free Agents

Likely Regulars: Frankly, there don’t appear to be any in this group — making the trade candidates listed below all the more tantalizing.

Top Timeshare/Reserve Options: Steve Pearce has hit a ton in 2018 and deserves a significant role, though he has long been dogged by heath questions. Mark Reynolds proved he can still do damage, while Hanley Ramirez is a wild card. On the left side of the plate, a trio of veterans returns to the open market. Matt Adams collapsed down the stretch but was productive earlier in the year; Lucas Duda did the opposite; Logan Morrison will be looking for a bounceback chance after an injury-plagued campaign. It seems unlikely that Joe Mauer will play anywhere other than Minnesota, but perhaps that can’t be ruled out entirely.

Depth: Pedro Alvarez, Adam Lind, Danny Valencia

Trade Targets

Likely Regulars: The most intriguing name that could be on the market has to be Paul Goldschmidt (1/$14.5MM). It stands to reason that the D-Backs will put him on the block early, seeing whether offers reach a sufficient level to make a move. Another player entering his final year of team control, Jose Abreu of the White Sox ($16MM projected), is perhaps still as much an extension as a trade candidate. Switch-hitter Justin Smoak sustained the better part of his 2017 outbreak this year and will earn a reasonable $8MM in the final season of his contract (his club option value was boosted by escalators). Trading him could offer the Blue Jays a chance to pick up some young talent while clearing the deck for existing young players to get some chances at the MLB level.

There are also some larger contracts worth considering. Wil Myers arguably doesn’t fit the roster puzzle for the Padres, though his deal (4/$64MM plus option) is just about to ramp up in cost. Though the Giants’ remaining obligations to Brandon Belt (3/$48MM) outstrip his present value — particularly after another season in which he missed time and didn’t hit to his typical levels — he’d still represent an interesting target for some clubs, potentially opening the door to some off-the-wall trade concepts. Speaking of which, the Phillies could seek to bail on Carlos Santana (2/$35MM plus option), depending upon how untold other possibilities play out, though they likely won’t find a terribly receptive market. And while an offseason trade remains hard to fathom, it’s still worth remembering that the Tigers could try to move some of their remaining obligations to Miguel Cabrera (5/$162MM plus options) at some point.

Top Timeshare/Reserve Options: Despite a strong year at the plate and still-palatable salary, C.J. Cron ($5.2MM projected) seems not to be in the Rays’ plans following the acquisition of Ji-Man Choi. Jose Martinez of the Cardinals (pre-arb) is another quality righty bat that might hold appeal, though his struggles to handle first base defensively may make him a DH-only target.

Teams considering lefty sluggers could take a look at the Phillies’ Justin Bour ($5.2MM projected) or Brewers’ Eric Thames (1/$7MM plus option), depending upon how those organizations proceed. Greg Bird of the Yankees ($1.5MM projected), Dominic Smith of the Mets (pre-arb), and AJ Reed of the Astros (pre-arb) could represent upside plays for the right team if their current orgs decide it’s time to move on.

Latest On D-backs’ Offseason Plans

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With two of their best players, A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin, set to hit free agency while other key players like Paul Goldschmidt and Robbie Ray inch closer to the open market, the D-backs will at least gauge trade interest in their roster early in the offseason before plotting a course, GM Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.

Around the league, there’s an expectation that the Snakes could oversee a full-throated rebuild, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests on Twitter. Within the organization, Hazen says the front office has already met with owner Ken Kendrick and CEO Derrick Hall, calling Kendrick “open-minded” as the offseason gets underway.

“I think one of the takeaways for us was just to get a feel for what the trade market would be for various guys, evaluate the free-agent market as it comes out and see what happens, and reconvene,” adds Hazen.

There’s been plenty of speculation about a rebuild in Phoenix, where the D-backs stand to lose both Pollock and Corbin this winter and will see Goldschmidt reach free agency following the 2019 season. Ray, meanwhile, is set to hit the open market after the 2020 season, as is outfielder David Peralta. The Arizona farm system is not considered to be particularly strong, and the team’s long-term payroll is weighed down by Zack Greinke’s record contract and the albatross deal for Yasmany Tomas — two remnants from the previous front office regime around which Hazen & Co. will need to navigate.

The D-backs also have a whopping 14 players eligible for arbitration this winter, including several key players who are up for sizable raises — as projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz earlier today. Peralta ($7.7MM), Ray ($6.1MM), Brad Boxberger ($4.9MM), Taijuan Walker ($4.825MM), Jake Lamb ($4.7MM), Steven Souza Jr. ($4MM), Nick Ahmed ($3.1MM), Archie Bradley ($2MM), Andrew Chafin ($1.8MM), T.J. McFarland ($1.4MM) and Matt Andriese ($1.1MM) all figure to be tendered contracts.

Add in Goldschmidt’s no-brainer club option and guaranteed salaries for Greinke, Tomas, Alex Avila, Jarrod Dyson and Ketel Marte, and the tab reaches $119.125MM — a hefty sum for a D-backs club that has only twice opened the season with more than $100MM in guaranteed contracts on the books. Even rounding out the roster with league-minimum players would push the Diamondbacks within a few million dollars of the franchise-record $131.5MM payroll they carried on Opening Day 2018. And if the team decides to tender contracts to any of Shelby Miller ($4.9MM projection), Chris Owings ($3.6MM) or John Ryan Murphy ($1.1MM), that financial outlook would only be further muddied.

With little help on the way from the farm, two of their best players hitting free agency, the face of a franchise a year from the open market, a near-record payroll and a miserable finish to the season, it’s not hard to see why the D-backs are at least considering a look to the future. A full tear-down wouldn’t even be necessary, as they could gauge interest in flipping some stars who are controlled for a relatively short period of time in exchange for some more controllable assets that could help at the MLB level either immediately or in the near future.

Goldschmidt would be the biggest piece they could put on the market, as the perennial MVP candidate rebounded from an awful start to post a characteristically brilliant .290/.389/.533 slash with 33 homers in 690 plate appearances. But Ray would also be one of the most in-demand assets on the offseason market for starting pitching, with few quality arms expected to be available in trades. The 27-year-old missed time with an oblique strain in 2018 and a concussion in 2017, but he’s averaged better than 12 strikeouts per nine innings over the past two seasons and a 3.34 ERA in his past 285 1/3 innings in that time. Peralta is only two years from free agency himself and posted a .293/.352/.516 line with a career-high 30 homers.

Certainly, there are avenues to additional payroll capacity down the line. The team inked a television deal reportedly worth more than $1.5 billion in Feb. 2015, but they’re only in year three of a contract that was said to be as long as two decades in length and included gradual increases in year-over-year television revenue. The Diamondbacks are also in the process of seeking alternatives to Chase Field, but a new stadium wouldn’t be a possibility until at least the 2022 season.

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