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Baseball Blogs Weigh In: MVP Races, Yelich, Stanton, Yanks, Mets, C. Davis

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This week in baseball blogs…

 Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com

Central Notes: Detroit Ballparks, Forsythe, Hader

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In 1895, a ballpark was built on a patch of Detroit grass on the corners of Michigan and Trumbull avenues. 17 years later, the Tigers would make it their home until the turn of the millennium. But after it sat empty and lonely for another ten years, and then, as Jared Wyllys of Sportingnews.com puts it, it was gone.

All that remains now of former Tiger Stadium is a dark green flag pole in center field at the new Corner Ballpark that’s since been built on site. The former home of the Negro League Detroit Stars has been neglected for two decades, too. Ike Blessit, a Tiger for four MLB games back in 1972, has started his own 501(c)3 organization to try and raise money to restore it. It’s a project of considerable size, but Blessit will “tirelessly evangelize any audience” in order to get the attention he feels the endeavor deserves. There are plenty more details within the full piece, which historians and Tigers fans alike ought give a full read.

A couple more items out of the Midwest…

  • Twins infielder Logan Forsythe heads into free agency for the first time “surrounded by unknowns,” Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press tweets as an intro to a full piece on the subject. Forsythe has been dealing with a left knee issue, and will have only a small handful of opportunities to reverse a 44-game homer drought when he’s able to return to the lineup. Berardino describes Forsythe’s offense as being on a “downward trend”, citing a .287 slugging percentage with just ten doubles since his last homer on June 10th. While that’s somewhat of an arbitrary endpoint, Berardino brings to light more stable figures to draw from, such as a dip in homers per season and average exit velocity since his peak with the Rays in 2016. “This year going into the offseason, we’re just open ears right now,” Forsythe said on the subject. “When the offers start coming in, it’s going to be based on where our family is at and what’s best for our family. But I’ve always been a fan of Minnesota, coming here to play. It’s a sleeper city.”
  • Brewers relief ace Josh Hader broke two more records during Friday night’s contest against the Pirates, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel notes, which further adds to the splendor of his 2018 resume. Hader’s streak of 16 consecutive outs recorded via the strikeout is the longest by a pitcher in the expansion era, and his 136 K’s on the season are now the most ever for a left-handed reliever in a single season. He’s needed just 77 innings to reach that threshold, making that feat all the more remarkable considering the former record holder needed 150 innings to set the old record of 134. Rosiak lists a slew of other accomplishments by Hader, and details his pitch selection along with some fun facts that diehard Brewers fans will surely enjoy.

NL East Notes: Braves, Bruce, Mets, Phillies

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Last night, the Braves became the first NL team to clinch a 2018 division title. Braves fans interested in a look back on the season and some of the biggest contributing factors to the club’s surprising season might consider giving this piece by Mark Bowman of MLB.com a read. Atlanta officially eliminated the division-rival Phillies from the NL East race with its best starter, Mike Foltynewicz, on the mound; Bowman describes Folty as the Braves’ “most significant acquisition made within the first year of the rebuild”. “It was very different knowing what’s at stake, but at the same time you can’t get overhyped, like I tended to do in the past with bigger games,” Foltynewicz said of his performance. “To be able to do it in front of our home crowd was pretty special.” The soon-to-be 27-year-old right-hander was acquired as part of the January 2015 trade that sent Evan Gattis to the Astros. The resume of his breakout season includes 178 innings of 2.88 ERA ball, 193 punchouts and a 1.11 WHIP.

While the Braves prepare for the playoffs, here are a few notes regarding the NL East teams looking towards 2019…

  • A poor start to the 2018 season for Mets free agent signee Jay Bruce manifested itself in a .212/.292/.321 batting line with just three home runs through the middle of June. But since coming off the disabled list on August 24th, he’s looked a lot more like his old self. As Tim Britton notes in a piece for The Athletic, Bruce is hitting .256/.347/.523 with six blasts in 98 plate appearances, which more closely resembles the 2017 season that he considers the best of his career. Britton believes that Bruce will be an integral part of the 2019 Mets plans, whether as their everyday first baseman or right fielder, but suggests that the Bruce signing ought to be a “learning experience” for the organization. That’s because one of the risks of signing players in their 30’s is that even those with largely healthy track records, like Bruce and teammate Todd Frazier, come with increased injury risk.
  • Bruce’s late-season performance extending into 2019 is one thing the Mets will be counting on if they hope to contend next season; Joel Sherman of the New York Post breaks down a laundry list of other things that need to go right for the club in order for to support those hopes. In fact, Sherman believes that the Amazins don’t necessarily need to rebuild, and have a shot to contend again right away if they play their cards right. He posits that the Mets should be willing to listen to trade offers on their starters, but also lists a host of potential free agent targets that could shore up the roster. That list includes lefty reliever Zach Britton, versatile infielder Eduardo Escobar, and catcher Wilson Ramos.
  • Have quick hooks in late-season games by rookie Phillies skipper Gabe Kapler cost Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez valuable development opportunities? That’s a question Matt Gelb attempts to answer in an article for The Athletic. Pivetta, for instance, faced just 20 batters in his Friday start, and has faced an average of just 21 batters in each of his 10 starts since August 1st. “You know, the way that the game has been going and the way that Gabe has been coaching, at the end of the day the most I can do is just go as long as I can,” Pivetta said. “It’s up to him when he takes us out.” Velasquez has been yanked even sooner in many cases, including being plucked from his Thursday starts after just three innings during which he allowed three unearned runs. The quick hooks, Gelb opines, make it more difficult to judge Pivetta and Velasquez ahead of 2019, and cost them valuable experience that could come in handy down the road. Perhaps it’s worth noting that the Phillies’ bullpen allowed 10 runs combined in those two contests while taking the loss in each against the division-rival Braves.

Quick Hits: Realmuto, Nats, Taylor, Rangers, Young, Beltre

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Sunday’s game could be the final home contest of Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto’s tenure with the team, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald observes. Spencer’s the latest to note that the Fish will likely trade Realmuto in the offseason if they’re unable to extend him, as they’re rebuilding and he’s only under control through 2020. Asked about the potential of Sunday being his last Marlins home game, the 27-year-old Realmuto said: “You never know what’s going to happen, so I don’t try to think too much about that. We’ll see if that ends up being the case.” Thanks to both the state of the Miami franchise and Realmuto’s standing as an elite catcher, he has frequented trade rumors dating back to last season. Barring an extension, Realmuto will once again be popular on MLBTR’s pages during the winter, especially considering he has been the majors’ best catcher and the Marlins’ main bright spot this year. Not only has Realmuto slashed a stellar .284/.348/.498 with 21 home runs in 516 plate appearances, but he has also offered tremendous defense.

More on a couple other MLB teams:

  • As part of an outfield that features Bryce Harper, Juan Soto and Adam Eaton, Michael A. Taylor has seen his playing time diminish, Elliott Smith of MLB.com points out. Taylor has only started four times since Aug. 24 and taken a mere seven PAs this month, per Smith. One reason Taylor has been on the bench lately is his lack of production, as the 27-year-old has followed up a strong 2017 by hitting a meager .224/.286/.355 with six home runs in 376 PAs. But Taylor’s “working with [hitting coach] Kevin [Long] to change his swing a little bit and hopefully he comes into Spring Training with a different swing — putting the ball in play a little bit more,” according to manager Dave Martinez. Putting the ball in play has been a struggle for Taylor, who has logged unappealing strikeout and contact rates of 29.8 percent and 71.1 percent, respectively. Taylor’s an asset on the bases and in the field, though, and he also comes with two more years of arbitration control. He could be an offseason trade chip for the Nationals, then, Smith writes. Taylor has considered the possibility, saying: “It’s hard this late in the season not to think about it, and with the way things have been going lately, it looks like other people are thinking about it.” Regardless, Taylor’s focused on “continuing to work and get better every day.” His situation will be an interesting one to monitor over the winter, given that the Nationals will have at least three other high-profile outfield options (Soto, Eaton and Victor Robles) even if they don’t re-sign Harper.
  • With the Rangers searching for a new manager, Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram goes through potential replacements for the fired Jeff Banister. One thing’s clear, Wilson writes: Rangers great Michael Young won’t get the job, even though he’d be president/general manager Jon Daniels’ “dream hire.” The soon-to-be 42-year-old Young is content in his current role as a special assistant to Daniels, Wilson suggests.
  • Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre reacted to Banister’s ouster Friday, saying (via T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com) the dugout shakeup won’t play a role in whether he’ll continue his career in 2019. And Beltre, a pending free agent who will turn 40 next April, seems prepared to go through another lean year with Texas. The Rangers’ non-contender status isn’t “ideal,” Beltre admitted, but he noted: “I’m here for whatever they want me to do, that’s the bottom line. I think I’m old enough to understand everything that’s going on, and I’m old enough to understand that over the last couple of years, the clubhouse is getting younger and younger, and there’s been a different situation where – yes, we’re probably not going to be competing with the Astros and those guys, we’re going to be developing players.” Beltre’s words jibe with his actions from this past summer’s trade deadline, when he elected against pushing for a trade to a better team. Assuming he re-signs with the Rangers in 2019, the future Hall of Famer will play his ninth season with the club.

Pirates’ Joe Musgrove Done For Season

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9;38pm: Musgrove tells Biertempfel that surgery hasn’t been ruled out, adding that he’ll know more after his six-week recovery period.

8:37pm: The Pirates announced that they’ve shut down right-hander Joe Musgrove for the season on account of “right side abdominal discomfort.” To be more specific, Musgrove’s dealing with “a stress reaction on the front of his pelvic bone and an abdominal wall muscle strain,” Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic tweets. Musgrove will require six weeks of rest, but he won’t need surgery, the team said (per Biertempfel).

Injuries bookended the season for Musgrove, who didn’t debut until May 25 because of shoulder issues. Those problems aside, it was a successful first year in Pittsburgh for Musgrove. Acquired from the Astros last offseason as part of the teams’ Gerrit Cole blockbuster, the 25-year-old Musgrove made 19 starts in 2018 and pitched to a 4.06 ERA/3.58 FIP with 7.8 K/9, 1.79 BB/9 and a 45.5 percent groundball rate in 115 1/3 innings. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, none of its other additions from that trade have been as productive as Musgrove this year, which has helped lead to the team’s third straight non-playoff season.

As a result of his output during his first year with the Bucs, Musgrove will surely be part of their rotation plans in 2019 – his final pre-arbitration campaign. Barring trades or signings, each of Musgrove, Jameson Taillon, Chris Archer, Trevor Williams and Ivan Nova look like locks or strong bets for Pittsburgh’s starting staff heading into next season. The group’s depth did take a hit earlier this week, though, as righty Chad Kuhl underwent Tommy John surgery and may not return until 2020.

Jose Bautista Wants To Play In 2019

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Phillies pending free agent Jose Bautista tells FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (video link) that he plans to continue his career in 2019, which would be his age-38 season. Bautista would like to suit up for a contender next year, Rosenthal says.

Considering his output dating back to 2017, Bautista may not be in position to dictate the type of team he plays for next season. While he was among the game’s most feared sluggers as a Blue Jay from 2010-16, Bautista’s now set to finish up his second straight less-than-stellar offensive campaign. Still, Bautista has been roughly average this year by FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric (101), having compiled an unusual .199/.339/.370 line in 384 plate appearances as part of a National League East tour that has seen him play for the Braves, Mets and Phillies.

While he’s not exactly a defensive standout, Bautista has racked up plenty of action in the outfield and at third base, and that versatility impressed Mets manager Mickey Callaway, Rosenthal notes. Further, Rosenthal adds that Bautista has been a valuable mentor during his short stay in Philadelphia – which acquired him from New York less than a month ago.

Since the end of 2015, his last great season, Bautista has totaled just 1.5 fWAR in 1,588 PAs. Bautista’s days as a quality regular appear to be over, then, though he could continue serving as a useful bench bat in 2019. The right-hander has long offered similar offensive production against both same-handed and southpaw pitchers, which has been the case this season, and still possesses respectable power (12 home runs, .171 ISO) and patience (15.9 percent walk rate). And with a .344 expected weighted on-base average against a .317 wOBA, Statcast suggests Bautista has deserved somewhat better than the middling offensive output he has posted in 2018.

Looking Ahead To Phillies’ Offseason

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The Phillies fell to the NL East rival Braves on Saturday, enabling Atlanta to clinch the division and continuing a difficult few months for Philadelphia. While the Phillies have gone just 25-34 since the All-Star break to fall out of playoff contention, the team’s still 78-76 and on pace for its first .500 or better campaign since 2012. And with plenty of spending room and multiple superstars set to reach free agency over the winter, the Phillies are in for a “fascinating” offseason, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports observes (video link).

The Phillies will head into the offseason with just under $70MM in guaranteed money on their books, as Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource estimates, but that number could decrease, per Rosenthal. Aside from ace Aaron Nola and slugger Rhys Hoskins, the Phillies will be “open to trading” just about everyone during the winter, Rosenthal reports, though he notes it’s “unlikely” they’ll end up moving first baseman Carlos Santana. While Santana has come up as a speculative trade candidate, and moving him would open up first for Hoskins (who has struggled in the outfield), dealing the former “would be an admission by the Phils that they never should have signed Santana in the first place,” Rosenthal says. Santana was one of the prize pickups of last winter for the Phillies, who inked him to a three-year, $60MM deal and have since seen the longtime Indian, 32, turn in a respectable season.

Assuming both Santana and second baseman Cesar Hernandez return in 2019, the right side of the Phillies’ infield should be set. The left side may be another story, though, as the Phillies have gotten mediocre or worse production from their options at both shortstop and third base this year. That could put them in the market for pending free-agent shortstop/third baseman Manny Machado – a long-speculated target – and signing him or someone else could put the club in position to move third baseman Maikel Franco or another young infielder, Rosenthal observes.

Shifting to the outfield, Rosenthal floats the idea of the Phillies sending center fielder Odubel Herrera elsewhere to land a veteran for their rotation. After a terrific run from 2015-17, Herrera has taken steps backward this year. Nevertheless, as a soon-to-be 27-year-old with an appealing contract (he’s owed between $25.5MM to $46MM through 2023), Herrera would likely draw a fair amount of interest on the trade market. Parting with him would enable the Phillies to flip one of the younger members of their rotation “for something else they might need,” Rosenthal posits.

Whether the Phillies need to do anything of note with their starting staff is up for debate, though, as Nola, offseason signing Jake Arrieta, Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin and Nick Pivetta have each amassed at least 23 starts and 2.1 fWAR so far this season. Thanks largely to that quintet, Philly’s rotation ranks sixth in the majors in fWAR (15.3). Further, each member of that group is under control next season, with Arrieta’s $25MM representing the lone lofty salary of the group.

Dating back to the July All-Star break, the Phillies have fallen well out of contention in the NL East – a division they led at the midway point- and the wild-card hunt, but it still seems they’re on the right track. Indeed, general manager Matt Klentak indicated as much a week ago. He and the rest of the Phillies’ brain trust are now set to spend the coming months trying to put the club in position to snap its soon-to-be seven-year playoff drought. With a good amount talent on hand to build around, plenty of money to spend, and Machado, Bryce Harper and Clayton Kershaw among the offseason’s potential free agents, the Phillies should be one of the majors’ most interesting teams to watch in the coming months.

Latest On Futures Of Andrew McCutchen, Brett Gardner

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In Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks, the Yankees already have a high-end starting outfield under control for 2019. But they’ll have more decisions to make in that area this offseason, specifically with veterans Andrew McCutchen and Brett Gardner. The club would “like to” retain McCutchen, a pending free agent, if his asking price is “reasonable,” Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. Meanwhile, the Yankees are “likely” to decline Gardner’s $12.5MM club option in favor of a $2MM buyout, according to Cafardo.

Having been acquired from the Giants on Aug. 31, McCutchen is just over three weeks into his tenure in the Bronx. The sample size is clearly limited, then, though the well-respected 31-year-old has delivered during his short Yankees career. Across 80 plate appearances with the Bombers, McCutchen has slashed .253/.425/.492 with four home runs and more walks (17) than strikeouts (15). Between San Francisco and New York, the right-handed McCutchen has batted .253/.366/.423 with 19 HRs in 648 trips to the plate, giving him a quality wRC+ of 119. The longtime Pirate has been an above-average offensive contributor every year of his career, which began in 2009, by wRC+.

Defensively, while McCutchen took significant steps backward as a center fielder from 2016-17, he has drawn somewhat better reviews in the corner this year. McCutchen has seen most of his action as a right fielder in 2018 and accounted for two Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-0.1 Ultimate Zone Rating in 1,271 2/3 innings, though Statcast’s Outs Above Average (minus-10) ranks him among the game’s worst fielders in the grass. Still, thanks in large part to his offensive prowess, McCutchen has totaled 2.5 fWAR and 2.7 rWAR, no doubt making him a useful player even if he’s not the MVP-level performer he was in his halcyon days.

Gardner, meanwhile, has been similarly valuable by wins above replacement, as he has accrued 2.3 fWAR and 2.8 rWAR in 583 PAs. However, the 35-year-old’s amid a difficult second half in which he has posted a meager .209/.290/.304 line (63 wRC+), and it has been a tough season in general versus southpaws for the left-handed Gardner – who has only managed a .641 OPS against them. All told, Gardner has batted a below-average .237/.325/.368 (90 wRC+) with 12 homers this season, though the speedster has still succeeded on 15 of 17 stolen base attempts and held his own in the outfield, where he has picked up 13 DRS, a 6.5 UZR and minus-one OAA. Despite his plus defense, Gardner’s offensive woes have relegated him to a bench role of late, as he has been in New York’s starting lineup just once this week.

Because of his track record as a well-rounded player and an esteemed clubhouse presence, the Yankees may be able to move Gardner via trade in the offseason if they’re against retaining him for another year. He does have 10-and-5 rights, however, and would be able to veto any potential move. If New York does cut ties with Gardner, though, it would mean saying goodbye to its longest-tenured player. A third-round pick of the Yankees in 2005, Gardner debuted in pinstripes in 2008 and has since accumulated 32.6 fWAR and 37.6 rWAR in 5,419 PAs, making him one of the most accomplished outfielders in the franchise’s storied history.

With the offseason over a month from beginning in earnest, the Yankees’ Brian Cashman-led brain trust still has a fair amount of time to decide on the futures of McCutchen and Gardner. And with the Yankees set to earn a wild-card berth this year, both McCutchen or Gardner could have more time to influence New York’s winter plans, depending on how they perform and how far the team advances in the playoffs. But with Judge, Stanton, Hicks and 2018 injury cases Clint Frazier and Jacoby Ellsbury among the Yankees’ outfield group for next season, it’ll be a surprise if they keep both McCutchen and Gardner.

West Notes: Kershaw, Pressly, Diamondbacks

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“There is no finality in Clayton Kershaw’s future. There is uncertainty,” Bill Shaikin writes in an article for the LA Times. While he’s hardly the first to think along those lines as the future Hall of Famer approaches a decision about his opt-out clause, Shaikin’s words do an excellent job of setting the tone for a conversation that’s likely quite uncomfortable for a large chunk of the fan base: Did Clayton Kershaw just make his last regular season start at Dodger Stadium?

For Kershaw’s part, he was transparent about his feelings on the mound. “I would be lying if I said it didn’t cross my mind,” Kershaw said. When asked whether or not he’d decided to opt out of the remaining $65MM on his contract, the lefty simply said “no”. Dodgers chairman Mark Walter reportedly confirmed on Friday that he still hopes to make Kershaw a Dodger “for life”. The city of Los Angeles will probably be monitoring any rumors and hints about the situation quite closely in the coming weeks as the deadline for their franchise icon’s decision advances.

More news from out west…

  • An interesting piece by Ron Wolschleger at Beyond the Box Score details the success of Astros deadline acquisition Ryan Pressly, and opines that he might be their best reliever. Highlighted in the piece are Pressly’s 0.90 ERA and 36.6% strikeout rate since joining the Astros. His 1.60 FIP also ranks second in the majors since the deadline. Mentioned in the piece as one potential catalyst for Pressly’s production surge after coming to Houston are changes in his pitch selection and sequencing, particularly the ditching of his two-seam fastball.
  • With the Diamondbacks having plummeted out of the postseason picture, Zach Buchanan of The Athletic looks ahead to the offseason and lists the club’s 11 pending free agents and ranks them in order of how good a fit they are to be re-signed by Arizona. Interestingly enough, Buchanan opines that 35-year-old catcher Jeff Mathis is the best bet to be kept, in no small part due to his defensive prowess, game-calling abilities and positive clubhouse presence. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Buchanan doesn’t expect the Diamondbacks to keep right-hander Randall Delgado in the fold for 2019, citing his poor overall results on the season.

Cubs Select Mike Freeman

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The Cubs have selected the contract of middle infielder Mike Freeman from Triple-A Iowa, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic tweets. He’ll take the place of Addison Russell on the roster, who’s on administrative leave amidst allegations of spousal abuse.

The 31-year-old Freeman is as much of a journeyman as any player you’ll see, having played for four clubs in the past three seasons. He’s likely more a depth piece for the Cubs as they await further word on Russell’s situation; Freeman owns a paltry .134/.211/.207 career batting line across 90 MLB plate appearances. That line comes with a 28.9% strikeout rate.

While his bat isn’t anything to fear, Freeman received positive ratings of his glove at shortstop last season with the Cubs and the MLB level. In a small sample of 54 innings, he earned a UZR/150 rating of 1.9. Defensive Runs Saved estimates that he helped them to the tune of one run above average. Originally an 11th-round pick of the Diamondbacks back in 2010, Freeman joined the Cubs for the first time in 2017, after he was designated for assignment by the Dodgers in order to make room for deadline acquisition Yu Darvish on the active roster.

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