Looking For A Match In A Nicholas Castellanos Trade
Nick Castellanos enjoyed the best offensive season of his career in 2018, posting a robust .298/.354/.500 batting line with 23 home runs, good for a 130 OPS+. He was the best hitter in an underwhelming Tigers lineup, making him a natural trade candidate as he enters the final year of arbitration eligibility. While his offensive profile leaves little to be desired, there is, as always, a caveat: Castellanos is a liability in the field, whether at third base, where he began his career, or in right field, where he started 142 games last season. After transitioning to right late in 2017, Castellanos did improve in 2018 when given the opportunity to play the position full-time – his UZR/150 innings improved from -57.6 in 2017 to -12.3 last season – but he remains an underwhelming defensive performer, and therefore best suited as a designated hitter with an American League club.
If the Tigers plan to deal Castellanos, and they’re said to be “determined” to do so, now is the time. Even if teams are less willing to surrender significant pieces than they might have been a year ago, when he still had two years of team control remaining, he will still be just 27 years of age during the 2019 season, and the single year of team control can be an asset. If Detroit can’t find a match, there is an argument to be made that he could attract a more robust market in July when half of his 2019 salary has already been paid, especially if he continues on his upward trajectory. Regardless, the Tigers, who will almost certainly find themselves well outside of playoff contention in 2019, would likely prefer to cash in now, if only to avoid the worst case scenario of an unceremonious (and uncompensated) free agent departure next winter. The rub here being they need to find a trade partner.
After trading away Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig, the Dodgers could certainly add an outfielder, and they happen to be the most recent team linked to Castellanos. Carrying more traditional platoon splits than Puig, Castellanos fits as the right-handed impact bat the Dodgers reportedly seek. Still, the scuttlebutt around Los Angeles paints two different pictures: one where the above trade clears the necessary payroll to approach big fish like Bryce Harper or A.J. Pollock, while the other tale insists management plans to dip under the luxury tax again in 2019. If the latter is true, Castellanos would be a reasonable (and considerably cheaper) alternative.
Much like the Dodgers, the Rays have plainly stated their intentions to bolster their lineup with a right-handed power hitter. Recent acquisition Yandy Diaz might be that guy, but they’ve also been linked to Cardinals’ slugger Jose Martinez and free agent Nelson Cruz, both of whom would fill a similar role as Castellanos. On the other hand, C.J. Cron provides a similar profile at half the cost, and the Rays non-tendered him. Even if the Rays’ value Castellanos’ “versatility,” or simply, if they (understandably) believe him the better overall hitter – it would still be quite the leap to pay Castellanos twice as much as Cron, while also giving up a prospect to get him.
With Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, and Yonder Alonso all donning new uniforms in 2019, the Indians need to replace a considerable amount of the offensive production that carried them to another AL Central title last season. Couple that with their need in the outfield and Castellanos seems a natural target. Still, with the recent trade that brought Jake Bauers and Carlos Santana, both 1B/DH types, to Cleveland, there may not be room for Castellanos if they don’t like his defense in right. As a trio they could rotate between first base, right field and DH, whether that means Bauers in right, Santana at first and Castellanos at DH, or Castellanos in right, Bauers at first and Santana at DH. Add Bradley Zimmer to the mix when he returns from injury and manager Tito Francona would have a defensive option for right to mix-and-match with as well. Whichever particular permutation Francona likes best, there’s enough playing time to keep everyone fed. Given the Indians’ reluctance to add payroll this offseason, however, Castellanos may prove too costly. As a short-term rental, his $11.3MM projected salary is palatable – the prospect cost may be a bigger deterrent, especially if Detroit charges an intra-division premium.
Same goes for the Twins, who with their surprising amount of free payroll space are dark-horse players for many big name free agents/trade targets. They have been tied to Cruz as a free agent for the void left at DH after Robbie Grossman‘s non-tender, and they should know Castellanos game intimately, for better or for worse. Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario are penciled into the outfield corners, but both are flexible players who can move around the diamond a little as needed to make room for an impact bat. Besides, the Twins are lapping the the field in the number of players in need of a PR re-launch, so adding Castellanos to a lineup already featuring Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Cron and Jonathan Schoop keeps the Twins on brand. Still, just because someone likes butterscotch doesn’t mean they only like butterscotch, and it might be the Twins have enough [big-bodied right-handed sluggers] butterscotch on hand already.
Returning to the NL, the Rockies or Giants could theoretically find room for Castellanos as a platoon bat, but the best fit is probably Atlanta. The Braves have an open spot in their outfield if Nick Markakis signs elsewhere, and they’ve checked in with the Tigers about Castellanos. But the same questions abound for the Braves as would any National League team. Namely, does Castellanos’ bat make up for his poor defense, and if not, is the $11.3MM price tag plus Detroit’s prospect ask too much to pay for a platoon/bench bat? For non-contenders, almost certainly not, which limits the field of potential dance partners for Detroit. The free agent outfield market is fairly barren, however, and considering the left-leaning rotations among contenders like the Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, and Red Sox – plus Patrick Corbin in Washington, Kyle Freeland in Colorado, and Blake Snell in Tampa – there should be no shortage of pennant hopefuls capable of putting a lefty masher like Castellanos to work.
Quick Hits: Acuna, Taylor, Rogers
Ronald Acuna was the most-anticipated Braves prospect in decades, and in spite of the extreme hype, he managed to not only meet expectations, but surpass them in most cases. David O’Brien of The Athletic details an oral history in celebration of what’s known as the Year of Acuna. The phenom hit .293/.366/.552 en route to a 3.7 fWAR season that won him the NL Rookie of the Year award, and became the youngest player in history to hit a grand slam in the postseason. Because he opened the year in the minors, Braves fans will have the privilege of watching Acuna play in Atlanta for at least six more seasons.
A pair of other small items…
- Although Nationals outfielder Michael A. Taylor struggled mightily at the end of the 2018 season, the club is hopeful that he’ll be able to revert to the promise he showed in a 3.1 fWAR 2017 campaign. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post details the storyline as it stands, including a few poignant quotes from GM Mike Rizzo. “If he figures out the contact portion of it a little bit better, you are talking about a guy that could have five tools,” he explained. “He’s had flashes of it in the past and he just needs to be more consistent in his approach at the plate, because the kid’s a really good player.” While Taylor did indeed show a lot of talent in 2017, it’s well-worth noting that the biggest difference between that and his 2018 performance was a 43-point difference in BABIP. Still, Taylor’s power numbers inexplicably plummeted last season as well, leaving room for optimism in regards to a potential rebound.
- Jake Rogers is still the Tigers‘ catcher of the future, Anthony Fenech writes in a piece for Baseball America, but he’ll have to do better than the .219/.305/.412 batting line he posted across 408 plate appearances at Double-A Erie this past season. According to GM Al Avila, Rogers is likely to begin the 2019 season at that same level. “Depending on how spring training goes, we’ll make a decision there,” he said at the winter meetings. “But I would say we’re kind of leaning towards (Erie), just for his own good.” The Tigers would “like to see him improve upon the offense” before giving him a promotion to the minors’ highest level. Vice President of Player Personnel Dave Littlefield offered something in the way of optimism regarding Rogers’ capabilities, expressing “no doubt” that he’ll be able to make the necessary adjustments in his swing, adding that he improved late in the year with some minor tweaks. Rogers was taken in third round of the 2016 draft, and currently ranks 12th among Detroit’s prospects.
International Notes: Bahamas, Japan, Korea
With not much likely to happen in the way of U.S. baseball transactions today, we’ll turn an eye to some locations overseas…
- The quality of talent in Bahamian baseball is on the rise, writes MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. To date, only six players from the Bahamas have played in the major leagues, including Antoan Richardson, the player who famously crossed the plate for the walk-off run Derek Jeter drove in during his final MLB at-bat. However, as many as fifteen players across MiLB’s 30 farm systems come from the Bahamas. Notably, Kristian Robinson currently ranks as the Diamondbacks’ 12th-best prospect, while Trent Deveaux and D’Shawn Knowles are among the Angels’ top 30 minor-leaguers. Lucius Fox, another Bahamian native (and a former $6MM international signing by the Giants), batted .326 in the Arizona Fall League and projects to open the 2019 season with the Rays’ Double-A Affiliate. Perhaps the most intriguing name on the list of Bahamian prospects is Jazz Chisholm, who’s ranked as the Diamondbacks’ third-best farmhand by MLB Pipeline.
- Kazuto Yamazaki of Baseball Prospectus suggests that a “wave” of Nippon Professional Baseball talent could make its way to MLB next year, and lists their names in a tweet. Left-handed-hitting outfielder Shogo Akiyama is reportedly set for international free agency, while Takahiro Norimoto, Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, and Ryosuke Kikuchi are all probable candidates to be made available through NPB’s posting system. Japan, of course, as produced plenty of high-end MLB talent in recent seasons, including Masahiro Tanaka and Shohei Ohtani. Yusei Kikuchi, who was just posted earlier this month, is the NPB’s most interesting player to make the jump to MLB this winter.
- Per Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston, a longtime Astros scout has taken a job with a Korean Baseball Organization team. Aaron Tassano, who’s also done legwork for the Cubs and Rays, is now the scouting coordinator for the KBO’s Samsung Lions, for whom he’ll now be trying to pluck talent from MLB farm systems. Drellich’s piece compiles some interesting quotes from Tassano that help form a picture of how KBO teams might make their pitches to certain MLB players and their agents.
Poll: Assessing The Indians’ Outfield Situation
Early on in the 2018-2019 offseason, I wrote that the outfield was the Indians’ biggest area of need. That was hardly a unique opinion; many around the industry have surmised the same, and it’s fair to wonder whether the Tribe can confidently go toe to toe with some notable AL rivals if their outfield picture as currently constructed doesn’t change.
Since the time of the aforementioned post, the club has watched free agent Michael Brantley sign with the Astros, while fellow outfielder Rajai Davis inked a minor-league pact with the Mets. Cleveland did pad its outfield prospect depth a bit with the acquisition of Daniel Johnson (as a component of the Yan Gomes trade with the Nationals), though he hasn’t played above Double-A and realistically only projects as a fourth outfield type. And while some might consider newcomer Jake Bauers as someone who improves the outlook there, defensive concerns there make it much more likely he’ll fulfill a first base/DH role.
All this is to say that it seems quite likely that the Indians will bring at least one more notable player into the fold. The possibility they’ll stand pat and fill all three roles internally can’t be entirely eliminated, of course, but such an approach would be irresponsible from a club trying to capitalize on a weakening window of contention. A mix-and-match crew of fourth outfielder types won’t help the club make a serious postseason run, after all. The picture is even more bleak when looking beyond the near-term, as the club’s best bet for league-average production, Leonys Martin, is set to depart in free agency next winter.
There are still some notable outfielders available on the free agent market. Keep in mind that any speculation about whether or not the Indians will sign a full-time outfielder must be met with the caveat that the club already went through an arduous effort to trim payroll this offseason, signifying some not-insignificant financial constraints in putting together the roster for 2019. That said, there are some interesting potential fits even in the wake of Andrew McCutchen and Brantley coming off the board.
The top free agent outfielder, Bryce Harper, is light years past being a realistic target for the small-market Indians. Beyond him, the next-best free agent outfielder available is A.J. Pollock. Any realistic pursuit of Pollock would probably involve some additional payroll maneuvering, but the Indians have shown a willingness to pony up, relatively speaking, for talented hitters in recent years (most notably Edwin Encarnacion). If Pollock’s contract ask comes down to four or even three years, he’d be an excellent fit for the Tribe. Marwin Gonzalez is the most talented alternative, and while he’d be paid at least in part for his defensive versatility, his projected contract could be palatable for the Tribe.
Looking at the lower tiers of the free agent market, the Indians could take a chance on the moderate upside of Nick Markakis or Adam Jones. Such a move could provide clubhouse intangibles in addition to a stable fixture at an outfield corner. On the whole, though, it would commit a disproportionate amount of the club’s available finances in order to make a marginal upgrade. Worth mentioning: with some bullpen issues to address, the payroll consequences of the options in free agency shouldn’t be overlooked.
The Indians have a much wider (and more efficient) array of options on the trade market. With excessive rotation depth and some interesting prospects on the farm, the Tribe has the unique ability to appeal to rebuilding clubs and fellow contenders alike. There’s certainly been no shortage of rumors involving the Indians and rival clubs with outfield depth.
The most serious rumblings to date have been centered around Dodgers prospect Alex Verdugo. The price would be a steep one, as the structures discussed would involve the Tribe sending two-time Cy Young Award-Winner Corey Kluber to Los Angeles for Verdugo and (presumably) other pieces. The Indians have also been connected to Reds prospects Nick Senzel and Taylor Trammel, though Cincinnati’s recent acquisition of Alex Wood might reduce their need for rotation pieces at this juncture.
The Phillies and Brewers are the only other teams who’ve been definitively connected to the Indians in trade rumors, though that doesn’t necessarily mean that other talks haven’t taken place. Speculatively speaking, rebuilding clubs like the Rangers (with whom the Indians recently discussed a trade involving Joey Gallo) could be interested in some of the Tribe’s high-ceiling talent in the lower minors.
The recap above being fairly comprehensive, we’ll turn the discussion over to the readers at this point. How do you think the Indians will address their outfield need? (poll link for app users)
How Will The Indians Address Their Outfield Need?
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They'll trade from their major-league rotation depth 36% (3,525)
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They'll sign a lower-tier free agent 31% (2,996)
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They'll make multiple acquisitions by the means listed above 16% (1,572)
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Nothing more than a MiLB pact or two 9% (891)
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They'll trade from their prospect depth 5% (510)
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They'll sign an upper-tier free agent 3% (283)
Total votes: 9,777
Poll: Projecting Gary Sanchez’s 2019
With the New Year approaching, the focus in Yankees Universe continues to be on whether the club will sign Manny Machado, the transcendent, polarizing free agent who’d provide an enormous boost to the left side of its infield. However, regardless of whether Machado heads to the Bronx, it’s fair to say the Yankees won’t reach their peak potential in 2019 without a bounce-back effort from their most polarizing star, catcher Gary Sanchez.
An elite prospect throughout his time in the Yankees’ system, Sanchez burst on the scene in 2016, his abbreviated rookie season. After the Yankees promoted him for full-time duty that August, Sanchez proceeded to swat an astounding 20 home runs in just 229 plate appearances and tie Mike Trout for the majors’ best wRC+ (170). Sanchez came back to earth the next year – his first full campaign – to some degree, though he still left the yard 33 times and registered a 129 wRC+ over 525 PAs.
Based on Sanchez’s output during his initial two seasons, there was little reason to doubt he’d continue serving as one of the Yankees’ cornerstones (and one of the game’s foremost catchers) last year. Instead, Sanchez never really got off the ground during what proved to be an injury-shortened, 89-game campaign, as he slashed a mere .186/.291/.406 (89 wRC+) in 374 PAs. Not only did Sanchez’s newfound offensive struggles frustrate fans, but so did his oft-maligned defense. For the second straight year, Sanchez finished with the American League’s most passed balls (18), which also ranked last in the majors. Unsurprisingly, then, he rated poorly as a blocker at Baseball Prospectus, which graded him second last in that department.
Despite Sanchez’s woes in 2018, general manager Brian Cashman was steadfast in defending the backstop throughout the season, telling anyone who’d listen the Yankees have a franchise catcher on their hands. That hasn’t stopped this offseason, even though trade rumors featuring Sanchez have been plentiful. Earlier this month, Cashman told Jack Curry of the YES Network that Sanchez is “not for sale,” adding that the Yankees expect they’ll be “proven correct” that he’s a foundational piece.
If we’re to take Cashman at his word, it’ll continue to be Sanchez donning the tools of ignorance for the Yankees in 2019 – not a trade possibility like the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto or the No. 1 free agent available, Yasmani Grandal. Both Realmuto and Grandal outclassed Sanchez last year, but before the latter’s Murphy’s Law 2018, he belonged in the discussion with those two and the game’s other top catchers. It’s understandable Yankees brass has the 26-year-old Sanchez’s back, then, and it becomes easier to see why when considering some of his underlying numbers from last season.
Sure, Sanchez’s overall offensive production was a colossal disappointment, but it still came with some encouraging signs. He continued to flash prodigious power, totaling 18 homers and logging a .220 ISO (well above the league average of .161). Further, compared to his previous two seasons, there weren’t any alarming trends in Sanchez’s strikeout, walk, swinging-strike, chase or contact rates. When Sanchez did put the bat on the ball, he often made it count, as he placed fifth in the majors in average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls (97.7 mph) and 19th in barrels per plate appearance (tying a pretty good duo consisting of teammate Aaron Judge and the Braves’ Ronald Acuna). Sanchez’s ability to make hard contact helped lead to a solid expected weighted on-base average (.343) which easily outdid his real wOBA (.304).
So what went wrong? Poor fortune seems largely to blame, given that Sanchez managed a meager .197 batting average on balls in play – down 111 points from the more normal-looking .308 mark he recorded between 2016-17. Granted, Sanchez didn’t help his cause by hitting far fewer line drives and far more pop-ups than he did in 2017. Sanchez’s 19.2 percent infield fly rate ranked last among qualified hitters, and because a pop-up is essentially an automatic out, that’s going to have to change going forward.
As for Sanchez’s work behind the plate, perhaps it’s unfair to regard his presence as disastrous to the Yankees’ defensive efforts. For one, the cannon-armed Sanchez caught at least 30 percent of would-be base stealers for the third consecutive year. And while blocking pitches has been a problem for Sanchez, Baseball Prospectus has assigned him high framing marks to this point. The outlet did hand Sanchez a negative overall grade in its Fielding Runs Above Average metric last season, though there were still plenty of worse catchers (admittedly, that’s faint praise).
Heading into 2019, Sanchez’s final pre-arbitration season, there’s clearly ample room for improvement both at the plate and behind it. Whether Sanchez will take the field on Opening Day is in question, though, as he’s only about a month and a half removed from left shoulder surgery. Sanchez’s shoulder – which had been an issue since 2017 – may have helped lead to his downfall last year, and if his recovery goes well, there are legitimate reasons to believe he’ll rebound in 2019. The Steamer projection system is on board, as it pegs Sanchez for 3.5 fWAR, a .245/.322/.482 line (116 wRC+) and 31 homers. How do you think he’ll fare?
(poll link for app users)
Which Gary Sanchez Will Show Up In 2019?
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Something In Between 52% (9,323)
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The Star-Caliber Version 34% (5,973)
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The 2018 Version 14% (2,464)
Total votes: 17,760
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Quick Hits: Harper, Miller, Mets, Yankees, Manaea, Athletics
Bryce Harper caused some social media buzz after the free agent outfielder “liked” an Instagram post from MLB.com questioning whether the Dodgers were the favorites for Harper’s services. (NBC Sports Bay Area’s Dalton Johnson was among those who reported on the story.) It should be noted that the “like” came from Harper’s verified Instagram account and thus perhaps not necessarily from Harper himself if anyone else has access to Harper’s account. The “like” was also removed from the original post once the MLB.com account called attention to it in a follow-up posting. It could be a hint, it could be just a misclick, or it could be somewhere in between, though speculation continues to swirl around the possibility of Harper landing in Los Angeles.
In case Santa needs some reading material during his downtime tonight, here are some Christmas Eve items from around the baseball world…
- Both the Yankees and Mets had interest in Andrew Miller, though neither New York team extended an actual offer to the free agent lefty, SNY.tv’s Andy Martino reports (via Twitter). “Durability concerns led them to back off,” Martino writes, as Miller was limited to just 34 innings in 2018 due to a 60-day DL stint with a knee injury, plus separate DL stints for less-serious shoulder and hamstring injuries. Despite those issues, Miller was still able to land a two-year deal from the Cardinals worth $25MM in guaranteed money, which could end up being something of a bargain for St. Louis if Miller is healthy and able to regain his past dominance. Both the Yankees and Mets are continuing to look for bullpen help, and the Mets have already made relief pitching a big focus of their winter business, acquiring Edwin Diaz and signing Jeurys Familia.
- The Athletics are going “to be opportunistic and patient” in their search for starting pitching, Billy Beane told reporters (including the San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea). Though Mike Fiers just re-signed with the team, more work is necessary to bolster a rotation that is loaded with inexperience and injury questions. Since the A’s can’t spend at the top of the pitching market, “waiting it out is probably the way we’re going to look at it,” Beane said, so the club will see if it can grab an arm or two once prices start to drop later in the offseason.
- Beane also provided some news on Sean Manaea‘s status, saying that the left-hander could be back in action “perhaps around the All-Star break.” This represents another positive development in Manaea’s timeline, as the young southpaw was initially projected to miss the entire 2019 season after undergoing shoulder surgery last September. Immediately after the procedure, however, manager Bob Melvin was cautiously optimistic that Manaea could return late in 2019. It’ll still be a while before we have a solid idea about how long Manaea will be out, and the Athletics are also sure to be as cautious as possible with the 26-year-old.
MLBTR Originals
Rounding up the original content from the MLB Trade Rumors writing staff over the last two weeks…
- This offseason’s free agent market has been humming along at a respectable pace, at least in comparison to last winter’s historic lack of activity. Jeff Todd took a look at the signing action thus far, in regards to which members of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list had found deals. At the time of Jeff’s post on December 18, sixteen of the 50 had signed, and six more names (Andrew Miller, Anibal Sanchez, Matt Harvey, Daniel Murphy, Trevor Cahill, Joakim Soria) have also since landed new contracts.
- Along those same lines, Mark Polishuk polled the MLBTR readership to ask which of the seven remaining unsigned members of our Top 10 free agents would be the next to ink a deal. Yasmani Grandal was the top choice with just over 25% of the vote, though it was fourth-place finisher Michael Brantley (who netted 14.89% of the vote) who ended up signing soonest, agreeing to a two-year deal with the Astros barely 24 hours after the poll was posted.
- Connor Byrne also put a question to the readers, asking which of Yasiel Puig or Nick Castellanos was the preferred acquisition in a Trade Candidate Faceoff. 58.55% of the vote went towards Castellanos, though apparently the Reds didn’t agree with the majority, as Cincinnati acquired Puig as part of a seven-player trade with the Dodgers last week.
- Speaking of trades, Jose Martinez no longer appears to have a starting role with the Cardinals, and thus stands out as a candidate for a deal. Mark explored the first base/DH market to try and find a trade partner for Martinez, though the search is complicated by Martinez’s lack of defensive prowess and the number of teams who have already addressed needs at first base.
- Rob Huff continued his Projecting Payroll series with a look at what the Cardinals might have available to spend this winter. Based on roster needs and past spending habits, Rob estimated that the Cards could have around $26.3MM in available funds. A good chunk of that money has already been used up, of course, as St. Louis made a big splash in the bullpen market to sign Miller to a two-year deal worth $25MM guaranteed, plus a vesting option for 2021.
- With the caveat that not all contract terms are made public, approximately 12 teams currently have a manager or a front office boss (a GM or a president of baseball operations) going into the last year of their contracts, as Mark details in this listing of team personnel that may or may not be on the hot seat in 2019.
Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts
Managers and front office bosses are always doing their best to progress their teams forward, though this particular list of names could be feeling a bit more pressure this coming season, as 2019 is their final guaranteed year under contract.
As always when compiling this list, a pair of caveats should be noted. Firstly, several teams don’t publicize the lengths of management contracts, and some teams don’t even announce when new contracts have been finalized. It could very well be that at least some of the executives listed have already quietly reached extensions beyond the 2019 season, or there could be some other names with unknown contract terms who have 2019 as their end date.
Secondly, lack of an official contract doesn’t always mean that a manager or an executive is lacking in job security. Some clubs have unofficial handshake agreements in place with the skipper or GM/president of baseball operations, wherein the job is promised as theirs, with the specific contractual details to be hammered out at some point in the future. In the case of managers, specifically, many do prefer some type of public agreement, if for no other reason than to avoid being perceived as a “lame duck” who lacks authority within a clubhouse.
With a big tip of the cap to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for many of these details, here are the managers and executives who are believed to be entering their final seasons…
Angels: General manager Billy Eppler is three years into his original four-year contract to run the Halos’ front office, a term that has yet to result in a winning record. Much has been made about the Angels’ inability to build a contender around Mike Trout during the outfielder’s Cooperstown-level prime years, and time is running short in that regard, given that Trout can become a free agent the 2020 season. In Eppler’s defense, he has added quality pieces like Andrelton Simmons, Justin Upton, and Shohei Ohtani as GM, though he has been hampered by a seemingly endless list of pitching injuries, not to mention some payroll-albatross contracts (Josh Hamilton, C.J. Wilson, and the ongoing Albert Pujols deal) left over from the tenure of previous Angels GM Jerry Dipoto. Longtime manager Mike Scioscia had reportedly always had quite a bit of influence within the front office, though with Scioscia not returning, Eppler had the opportunity to make his own managerial hire in the form of Brad Ausmus. There hasn’t yet been any indication that Eppler could be in particular danger of not being extended, though it’s worth noting that neither of Eppler’s predecessors in the job (Dipoto and Tony Reagins) lasted more than four years.
Blue Jays: Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi noted in September that general manager Ross Atkins was likely to receive an extension, and that such a deal wasn’t likely to receive public acknowledgement. So, Atkins may already be locked up beyond the original end-date of his four-year deal prior to the 2016 season. Atkins and president Mark Shapiro have planted the seeds for a rebuild over the last two seasons, and with the Jays now in full-fledged retooling mode for at least one more year, it makes sense that Atkins would continue to hold the reigns as Toronto prepares for the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. era.
Brewers: This one is a bit speculative, as terms of GM David Stearns‘ original deal with the Brewers weren’t released, though The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported in October that “Stearns has at least one year left” under contract. Stearns was hired prior to the 2016 season, so a four- or five-year deal seems pretty standard for a new general manager, particularly one that was seemingly facing a rebuild upon taking the position. Needless to say, things are ahead of schedule in Milwaukee, as the Brewers were just a game away from the World Series last October. Even if Stearns’ deal runs through 2020 rather than just 2019, it seems likely that Brewers ownership will have some talks about an extension this offseason given Stearns’ immediate success.
Cubs: There has already been quite a bit of speculation about Joe Maddon‘s future at Wrigley Field, as the Cubs aren’t planning to discuss a new contract with the manager. Though Maddon himself seems unperturbed about the situation and president of baseball ops Theo Epstein denied rumors of any hard feelings with his skipper, it does seem like a dugout change could be made unless the Cubs make another deep postseason run.
Diamondbacks: With two winning seasons and the 2017 NL Manager Of The Year Award on his resume in two years as manager, Torey Lovullo seems like a prime candidate for a new deal. Though Arizona is now moving into a semi-rebuilding phase, this actually seems closer to the situation Lovullo was expected to inherit when he initially took the job, before he led the D’Backs to their surprise postseason berth in 2017. I’d expect Lovullo to have an extension in hand by Opening Day at the latest.
Dodgers: Since president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman signed his five-year, $35MM deal to take over the Dodgers’ front office in October 2014, the club has extended its streak of NL West titles to six in a row, and finally got over the postseason hump to return to the World Series, capturing the NL pennant in each of the last two seasons. While the Comissioner’s Trophy has remained elusive, Friedman has managed to keep the Dodgers competitive even while cutting salaries, getting the team under the luxury tax threshold last season after payrolls touched the $300MM mark earlier this decade. This is probably another instance of an extension being just a matter of time, as the Guggenheim Baseball ownership group seemingly has every reason to want to keep Friedman in the fold for several years to come.
Giants: The leadership shakeup that installed Farhan Zaidi as the Giants’ new GM didn’t extend to the dugout, as longtime manager Bruce Bochy will return for the last year of his current contract and his 13th overall season in San Francisco’s dugout. Bochy turns 64 in April and he has dealt with heart issues in the past, leading to some whispers that he could move into retirement and hand the job over to a new manager. Longtime coaches Hensley Meulens and Ron Wotus have both been mentioned as possible managers-in-waiting, or Zaidi could prefer to hire a new face from outside the organization. It also wouldn’t be a shock to see Bochy stick around in 2020 or beyond, should he want to continue managing and he forms a solid relationship with Zaidi. Given Bochy’s championship-winning track record and the large amount of respect he holds within the organization, the possibility exists that he has already been promised the opportunity to end his tenure on his own terms.
Indians: General manager Mike Chernoff reportedly agreed to an extension with the team in November, though this is technically still an unknown situation since there wasn’t any official confirmation from either side. That said, since Cleveland is one of the organizations that generally stays quiet about contract details for management figures, we can probably consider this one a done deal. Chernoff was promoted to general manager in October 2015, so he could have been at the end of a three-year contract or the Tribe was getting an early jump on extending his four-year contract. It’s also worth noting that president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti signed an extension of indeterminate length back in 2013 and we haven’t heard any further contract news since, so Antonetti could also be approaching the end of a deal…unless he also signed an unreported extension at some point. It’s safe to assume that big changes aren’t in the offing for a team that has won three straight AL Central titles.
Marlins: “There are indications the Marlins would like to retain [Don] Mattingly beyond 2019,” MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro recently reported, though Mattingly said that he had yet to hear from the team about extension negotiations. Mattingly has managed the Fish through three tumultuous years in the organization’s history, and the fact that he is one of the few members of the Jeffrey Loria regime still in Miami could indeed be a sign that Derek Jeter and company have interest in keeping the veteran manager around to help mentor and develop young players during the franchise’s latest rebuild.
Red Sox: Principal owner John Henry recently noted that the team was “running out of time” in regards to an extension with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, whose five-year contract is up after the 2019 season. (Since Dombrowski was hired in August 2015, the deal can probably be more accurately described as 4.5 years in length.) Regardless of when the specific end-date may be, Dombrowski could hardly be in better position to land an extension in the aftermath of Boston’s World Series triumph.
Rockies: 2019 is the last guaranteed year of Bud Black‘s contract as manager, though he has a bit of extra cushion since the Rockies hold a club option his services for 2020. Since Black has led Colorado to the postseason in each of his first two seasons as manager, it seems like he’ll at least get that option exercised to add a bit more security, plus the team is likely to discuss a longer-term deal as well.
Royals: GM Dayton Moore has often reiterated that manager Ned Yost will decide on his own when to step away from the dugout, though that won’t happen for at least one more year, as Yost agreed to a one-year extension last September. As Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman put it, however, there is “strong belief” that Yost won’t manage beyond 2019. The Royals’ recent hiring of Mike Matheny to a special advisor role could be another sign that the team already has a successor in place for the 2020 season.
Athletics Sign Mike Fiers
7:31PM: Fiers will earn $14.1MM in total, according to Janie McCauley of the Associated Press (Twitter link). The deal breaks down as $6MM in 2019, and $8.1MM in 2020.
Dec. 24, 1:02PM: The A’s have announced the deal (via Twitter).
Dec. 22:The Oakland Athletics are close to re-signing Michael Fiers, per the MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. Fiers will earn between $14MM and $15MM over a two-year span (Twitter links). The deal is pending a physical.
The dollar amount makes sense for both sides, considering Fiers was non-tendered by the A’s at season’s end while being projected to earn $9.7MM through arbitration. With this agreement, the A’s save themselves a couple million on their 2019 payroll while getting a second season of control, and Fiers gets more guaranteed money.
Fiers came to Oakland in August in exchange for two PTBNL, who turned into LHP Logan Shore and RHP Nolan Blackwood. He then contributed reliable innings for the A’s down the stretch as they struggled to keep rotation arms healthy en route to a surprising 97-win season. Pitching in the spacious arenas of Detroit and Oakland last season, Fiers tallied his best year as a pro: a 12-8 record with a 3.56 ERA across 172 innings.
Fiers threw more sliders than ever in 2018, a pitch he has steadily woven into his repertoire since 2015. The increase in slider usage corresponded with a similar decrease in sinker usage, leading to elevated launch angles and more flyballs (43.2 FB%) – all of which could signal sustainability for Fiers’ 2018 success. His peripherals don’t scream drastic transformation, though he did lower his walk rate to a career-low 1.94 BB/9.
Morosi recently reported Fiers was being courted by the Reds, Nationals, Rangers and Giants, all of whom would have been a poorer fit for Fiers, save perhaps the Giants, given his past home run issues. The Oakland Coliseum seems a good fit for the 33-year-old, who is at his best when keeping the ball in the air, but at his worst when unable to keep the ball in the yard.
Fiers ill join an unstable cadre of rotation arms in Oakland, with Daniel Mengden, Frankie Montas, Aaron Brooks, Paul Blackburn and Chris Bassitt being the in-house options for what’s sure to be another ragtag crew.
Looking For A Match In A Jose Martinez Trade
Jose Martinez was the Cardinals’ second-best hitter in 2018, he has a .309/.372/.478 slash line over 915 career MLB plate appearances, and he isn’t eligible to hit free agency until after the 2022 season. On most clubs, Martinez would be considered a valuable building block — in St. Louis, he has already become an afterthought. Paul Goldschmidt has taken over as the Cards’ everyday first baseman, and with Marcell Ozuna in left field and Dexter Fowler slated for right field duty and hoping for a rebound, Martinez is now a man without a position, making him an intriguing potential trade chip as the Cardinals continue their offseason business.
Of course, there’s a good case to be made that St. Louis might not want to deal Martinez at all. Since Goldschmidt is only under contract through 2019, the Cards may want to keep Martinez in the fold as long-term insurance if case Goldschmidt leaves in free agency. Secondly, Martinez’s inexpensive pre-arbitration salary makes him a good asset for St. Louis to have as a bench bat. It’s easy to imagine the Cardinals hanging onto Martinez for late-game pinch-hitting duty, or the occasional spot start should Goldschmidt, Ozuna, or Fowler require a day off. Plus, should Fowler’s struggles continue next season, Martinez could find himself getting more regular playing time in right field.
There’s also the fact that the Cardinals seem to have already completed their biggest winter additions. After landing Goldschmidt and Andrew Miller, the Cards’ remaining needs are relatively minor — a backup catcher, a left-handed bench bat, and perhaps another bullpen arm. Any of these could be addressed in free agency rather than by trading Martinez.
With those arguments in mind, let’s now look at the case for why St. Louis might want to swing a deal. For starters, trading Martinez now could be a sell-high move. He was an unheralded prospect, who bounced around three other organizations (White Sox, Braves, Royals) before landing with the Cardinals, and Martinez didn’t really show much at the plate until 2014, when he was a 25-year-old on Atlanta’s high-A ball team. Since Martinez turned 30 last July, he doesn’t really project as a long-term piece for the Cards.
There’s also the fact that “man without a position” is something of an apt description for Martinez even when he was getting everyday at-bats, as he has been a below-average defensive player whenever he has played around the diamond. In 637 2/3 innings as an outfielder, Martinez has a -10.6 UZR/150 and minus-13 Defensive Runs Saved. He hasn’t fared much better even at the less-stressful position, posting minus-6 DRS and a -2.8 UZR/150 over 936 1/3 frames at first base. While Martinez’s defense isn’t really an issue if he’s only limited to a spot start, or an inning or two at the end of a game after a pinch-hitting appearance, his poor glovework makes him a liability should the Cards actually need him for an extended fill-in capacity in case of injury.
The Rays and Dodgers have both reportedly shown some interest in acquiring Martinez, who makes some sense on either roster. Los Angeles is looking to add some right-handed pop to its mostly left-handed lineup, though the Dodgers could be aiming for bigger-ticket additions (such as J.T. Realmuto or A.J. Pollock) than Martinez. It’s possible that Tampa’s recent acquisition of Yandy Diaz could have taken them out of the Martinez hunt, as Diaz is another right-handed hitting complement to Ji-Man Choi in the first base/DH mix and Diaz also offers more defensive flexibility.
The Cardinals also tried to use Martinez as a trade chip to land Will Smith from the Giants, though it doesn’t appear San Francisco had much interest. While the Giants need corner outfield help, Martinez would be a poor fit in the spacious AT&T Park outfield, and first base is already spoken for in the form of Brandon Belt (plus, Buster Posey handles first when the Giants spell him behind the plate).
We’ve already seen some significant action within the first base market this winter, as the likes of Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana (twice), Justin Bour, C.J. Cron, Matt Adams, and Steve Pearce have all been traded or signed with new teams. Daniel Murphy will also be serving mostly as a first baseman with the Rockies, which addresses arguably the most glaring first base hole on any contending team.
It doesn’t leave much in the way of a wide-open trade market for Martinez, particularly since NL teams could be less likely to make a push given his lack of defensive prowess. On the plus side, his four years of team control could attract rebuilding clubs as well as contenders.
The Royals or Tigers make some sense as a Martinez suitor, though K.C. has a lot of right-handed hitters already and Detroit has youngster Christin Stewart slated for some DH duty due to his own defensive shortcomings. Martinez’s low price tag could appeal to the Mariners as they continue to cut costs, though the Cardinals would likely have to bring a third team into the trade to acquire Encarnacion, who obviously isn’t a fit in St. Louis with Goldschmidt on board. The White Sox could use Martinez as a part-time outfielder and platoon partner with Yonder Alonso in 2019, with an eye towards a more regular role if one or both of Alonso and Jose Abreu depart in free agency after the season. The Astros have been reportedly checking around for first base/DH help, though with Yuli Gurriel and Tyler White already provided right-handed bats, Martinez could be overkill.
Returning to the National League, one interesting option could be Goldschmidt’s former team. The Diamondbacks are planning to give Jake Lamb some time at first base this season, though Lamb is coming off a rough 2018 and didn’t even hit left-handed pitching well even when he was in good form. If the D’Backs added Martinez to the first base mix, that would allow them to situationally shuffle Lamb to third base, Eduardo Escobar to second, and Ketel Marte potentially to center field. While Martinez-to-Arizona makes sense on paper, however, one would imagine the idea was already floated between the D’Backs and Cardinals when they were discussing the Goldschmidt trade. While that doesn’t necessarily mean the Diamondbacks wouldn’t pursue Martinez in a future deal later this winter, Martinez’s non-inclusion in that initial trade could indicate some lack of interest on Arizona’s part.