Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds
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Reds ownership has promised a record payroll on the heels of a fourth-consecutive last-place finish in the NL Central and their lowest attendance total in over 30 years. While they’re not likely to be contenders in a particularly tough division, the club figures to be on the upswing in 2019. They’ll almost certainly be looking to add some long-term pieces whom they expect to be on the next competitive team in Cincinnati.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Joey Votto, 1B: $125MM through 2023, plus $7MM buyout on $20MM option for 2024
- Homer Bailey, P: $23MM through 2019, plus $5MM buyout on $25MM mutual option for 2020
- Raisel Iglesias, RP: $24.125MM through 2021
- Eugenio Suarez, 3B: $62.5MM through 2024, plus $2MM buyout on $15MM option for 2025
- Tucker Barnhart, C: $9.75MM through 2021, plus $500K buyout on $7.5MM option for 2022
- David Hernandez, RP: $2.5MM through 2019
- Jared Hughes, RP: $2.125MM through 2019, plus $250K buyout on $3MM option for 2020
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Scooter Gennett (5.071) – $10.7MM
- Billy Hamilton (5.028) – $5.9MM
- Jose Peraza (2.141) – $3.6MM
- Anthony Desclafani (4.062) – $2.1MM
- Michael Lorenzen (3.159) – $1.9MM
- Curt Casali (2.151) – $1.3MM
Free Agents
[Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart | Cincinnati Reds Payroll Outlook]
Not only was 2018 the Reds’ fourth consecutive season of fewer than 70 wins, but they also faced the added humiliation of being the only team in their division to finish with a losing record. They managed to draw just 1.63 million fans to Great American Ballpark, their lowest attendance figure since 1984. The organization’s relationship with its fan base is facing a significant strain at the moment; ownership will have to hope that an overhaul of their coaching staff and intent to add about $30MM in payroll will help revitalize interest in watching the Reds.
Of course, that gesture alone won’t be enough; if they’re unable to field a competitive team, they may again be looking at a sparse turnout in 2019. Fortunately, they’re likely to add wins by virtue of internal improvements alone. Young players such as Jesse Winker, Luis Castillo and Jose Peraza are solid bets to take additional steps forward, and they may have some cavalry on the way in the form of top prospect Nick Senzel. Certainly, nobody expects the Reds to become a winning team due solely to surge from within. But with a solid position-player core already in place — led by Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto, Tucker Barnhart, Scott Schebler, and Scooter Gennett (who’s in his final season of contract control) — those up-and-coming players could give fans something to cheer for if things break right.
Clearly, to move the needle toward contention, the Reds will need to go outside the organization at some point. The club has clearly signaled it intends to do so this winter, though that does not mean that it anticipates any wild spending that would tie up too much future payroll space.
The first and most obvious place to add wins is to a rotation that has perennially been one of the worst in baseball of late, having finished 30th, 29th and 27th in Fangraphs WAR among MLB teams in 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively. DeSclafani is a lock for a rotation spot if he can remain healthy (though that’s not a given), while Castillo and Tyler Mahle will take up two more. Beyond them, Cody Reed and Robert Stephenson are among the potential rotation candidates, but neither has yet to make good on his once lofty prospect status. Ergo, the biggest item on Cincinnati’s docket will be to add at least one viable major-league starter, and quite likely a second.
That’s more than just pure logic; it echoes recent sentiments laid out by president of baseball operations Dick Williams, who hopes to add a pair of pitchers this winter. That doesn’t necessarily mean two starters, but Cincinnati’s already been connected to several prominent names on the trade market, including Indians aces Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco and high-powered Mets hurler Noah Syndergaard. Needless to say, those are some rather big names who’ll draw significant interest and may not be moved at all; it’d remain a surprise to see any land in Cinci.
It’s not apparent what they’d be able to offer a club with clear intentions to contend in 2019, unless they’re willing to part with Senzel (which seems unlikely), but Williams will surely be knocking on plenty of other doors as well. He’s said to have contacted the Yankees about Sonny Gray, and the Reds were reportedly involved in the James Paxton sweepstakes before he ultimately went to the Bronx. Hurlers such as Marcus Stroman and old friend Mike Leake could conceivably make sense in the right circumstances. Certainly, the club possesses the means to do a significant deal; it would be irresponsible not to point out that the Reds have an impressive collection of upside prospects in the lower minors, so they’ve got a plethora of enticing ways to ignite a conversation.
The free-agent market as an alternative is a much more blurry picture. On the one hand, Williams has suggested that the club plans to be “aggressive” in front of available players and their agents. On the other, some whispers we’ve heard strongly hint that the Reds are unlikely to be in play for any of the top-tier arms on the market. If that’s true, one might surmise that any pursuit of high-end starters beyond due diligence is unlikely. Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, Nathan Eovaldi and perhaps even J.A. Happ might not fall within the Reds’ line of sight.
Further illustrating that point (within the above link) is the rumor that the club is seeking to add a mid-rotation arm and a middle-to-late-inning reliever. Missing on the top of the market (should it come to pass) might leave some fans feeling disappointed, though it’s plenty arguable that reaching for a costly veteran now would be unwise.
If there’s a particularly interesting fit on the open market, it could be Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. Unless the club’s scouting department is severely down on him in comparison to the rest of the league, it seems a near certainty that the Reds will join the pursuit. Kikuchi’s relative youth would fit perfectly within the puzzle of a rebuilding club on the upswing, and while he’ll command a lengthy contract, the initial guess at MLBTR is that he won’t command a significant sum in terms of average annual value. It’s speculation to be sure, but Reds fans will want to pay attention to the rumblings that surround the Seibu Lions star.
While Gio Gonzalez and Anibal Sanchez also could fill innings as veteran rotation pieces, the only player they’ve actually been connected to is Matt Harvey, their lone outgoing free agent. The right-hander and former All-Star was traded to Cincinnati early on in the season after being designated for assignment by the Mets, and went on to make 24 starts for his new club to the tune of a 4.50 ERA. While that performance seems more indicative of a back-of-the-rotation arm, he had somewhat more encouraging peripherals for those who can look beyond his proneness to the long ball. As a Red, Harvey posted a strong 3.96 K/BB ratio with a 4.14 xFIP. And of course, he still tempts a spark of upside based on the talent he showed earlier on in his career. It wouldn’t be prudent to expect an All-Star-type resurgence, but for the two-year, $22MM contract MLBTR predicts for him, he could be worth serious consideration.
As for the “middle-to-late-inning reliever” the Cincinnati brass is said to be seeking, there are myriad options in free agency to choose from. One would think the size of their market makes a Craig Kimbrel pursuit a challenge, but between the #17 and #26 spots on our free agent rankings sit no fewer than seven talented, proven bullpen arms who could be feasible targets for the Reds. That they’re planning to up their payroll by $30MM means that any of those players could be very real options, and would help add to an already-solid back-end trio of Iglesias, Hughes and Amir Garrett. Failing a free-agent signing, the club has more than enough resources to pursue options on the trade market.
Though it’s true that investing in relief pitching can be an iffy way to tie up resources, the outdated notion of paying big cash for a tried-and-true closer has largely gone by the wayside. The Reds already locked in a price for their own ninth-inning man, regardless, with a three-year pact with Iglesias that provides some cost certainty/savings (but does not expand the club’s control). Even adding a few lesser relievers could be sensible approach for the Reds, perhaps helping them to pick up a few extra winnable games and/or generate trade assets. While the club’s 2018 relief corps featured a few solid performers, after all, it was only a middle-of-the-road unit overall. And several hurlers profile as possible regression candidates after outperforming their peripherals last year. Boosting the depth, then, would certainly be warranted even if more significant additions aren’t in the offing.
The Cincinnati offense is a bit of a clearer picture. The club’s two through six positions are each assigned to a solid player with an optimistic outlook, making their infield probably the biggest strength of the team. Turning an eye to the outfield, however, reveals a generally less-impressive cast with plenty of question marks. The current alignment projects to feature Hamilton in center, with Schebler and Winker at the corners. Senzel’s gotten some outfield reps, but there’s no telling whether or not he’ll be deemed ready to contribute in the season’s first half, and that’s to say nothing of his injury history.
Frankly, it’s not hard to see where an upgrade would go, if one is pursued. Hamilton and Schebler just do not profile as first-division regulars. Each is a useful player — the former, a potentially dynamic reserve; the latter, a sturdy piece — but neither has shown the capacity to sustain significant production. Whether Winker can do so remains to be seen. Regardless, all three are either left-handed hitters or, in Hamilton’s case, a switch-hitter who’s best utilized against right-handed pitching. It’s a situation that cries out for a high-quality, right-handed hitting addition. Perhaps it’s too pie-in-the-sky to suggest A.J. Pollock, but he’d be a nice match who’d push Hamilton out of everyday duties in center (if not onto the trade block) while representing a multi-year solution up the middle. In that scenario, Senzel would be free to finish his development and step in at second for a departing Gennett.
That’s the sort of move a clear contender would consider. Whether it’s one this club will or should pursue is surely debatable. There’s a difference, after all, between a season of positive momentum and one of serious contention. While the Reds are certain to improve on their win totals from the past four years, their division is stacked with formidable foes in the form of the Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals. Each of those teams not only places a heavy roadblock upon the path to a division title, but they’ll downright make it difficult for the Reds to eke out interdivisional wins. Cincinnati will need to face those clubs a total of 57 times in 2019, and without a major facelift and some significant luck they probably won’t be considered favorites to win any individual games against their intimidating foes.
With that in mind, the Reds would be irresponsible to cash in too many of their prospect chips in an aggressive win-now push. Rather, we’re more likely to see them make future-oriented moves that improve the team now without jeopardizing their long-term outlook. Spending money is something of a different question, though there too it’s necessary to keep the future spending power in mind. Perhaps taking a shot at a controllable, buy-low trade target such as Michael Taylor or Keon Broxton is likelier than pursuit of Pollock, for instance. The Reds did quite well, after all, to score Gennett under similar circumstances. Of course, that move was made two seasons back, and fans wouldn’t be wrong to feel that the team ought to have greater urgency now than it did then. After all, Gennett, like Hamilton, could be dealt away or reach the open market without ever having been a significant part of a winning Cincinnati ballclub.
Even if they won’t be favorites to play into October this year, Reds fans have quite a fun winter ahead of them. After all, the long-suffering Cincinnati baseball fans can finally sense the other side of the rebuild materializing on the horizon. What’s more, the moves made and players acquired this offseason will (hopefully) help bring the next contending Reds team into focus. Expectations should remain tempered, but it’s finally a fun time again to be a Reds fan.
Coaching Hires: Jays, Mariners, Dodgers, D-Backs, Pirates
This offseason has brought quite a lot of coaching turnover, yet we’ve not heard anything regarding Red Sox pitching guru Brian Bannister. That’s not only by design, but is included in his contract with the club, Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston writes in an interesting look at a key figure in the Boston organization. It seems the Red Sox will continue to enjoy Bannister’s services for some time, even if other organizations might have loftier positions to offer.
Here are some of the latest coaching decisions from around the game …
- The Blue Jays have rounded out their coaching staff under new skipper Charlie Montoyo. Former Double-A manager John Schneider is heading up to the big club, though his precise role isn’t yet clear. Other recent hires include Mark Budzinski as first base coach and Shelley Duncan as field coordinator, as Robert Murray of The Athletic reported (Twitter links). The former comes from the Indians’ staff, while the latter had been managing on the Diamondbacks’ farm.
- Tim Laker has been announced as the new hitting coach of the Mariners. He had been in an assistant’s role with the Diamondbacks for the past two seasons. A former MLB backstop, Laker will be tasked with stepping into the shoes of the legendary Edgar Martinez, who shifted to a broader role as organizational hitting advisor.
- The Dodgers have decided to bring on Robert Van Scoyoc as their new hitting coach, according to Pedro Moura of The Athletic (via Twitter). He is also coming from the D-Backs organization. This’ll be Van Scoyoc’s first stint on a MLB staff, and it comes at just 32 years of age. He’s best known for helping to re-launch J.D. Martinez into stardom as a private hitting coach.
- Needless to say, the Diamondbacks have some holes to fill in this area. Eric Hinske will be part of the picture, as he is set to join the team as the assistant hitting coach, per Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (via Twitter). He will work alongside recently hired hitting coach Darnell Coles. Hinske recently held the top hitting coach slot with the Angels and Cubs.
- In another hitting move, the assistant job of the Pirates will be handled by Jacob Cruz. The 45-year-old was most recently the minor-league hitting coordinator of the Cubs and previously worked in the Diamondbacks organization. A former big-league outfielder, Cruz is slated to pair with new hitting coach Rick Eckstein.
Reds Agree To Three-Year Deal With Raisel Iglesias
NOVEMBER 27: Iglesias will receive a $6MM salary in 2019, followed by $9MM and $9.125MM paydays, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter).
NOVEMBER 21: The Reds announced today that they have agreed to a three-year deal with closer Raisel Iglesias. It will promise him $24.125MM, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter), but won’t expand the team’s control rights.
This is a fairly unusual contract agreement; though we have seen an increasing number of multi-year, arbitration-only deals, they are typically of shorter duration and in some cases give the team additional option years. In this case, though, Iglesias was playing under an unusual contract in the first place, having signed a deal that would no longer be permitted under MLB’s international rules.
Under his original contract, Iglesias had the right to exit the guaranteed portion of the deal and enter arbitration. He elected not to do so last year, but still had the right to turn down the $5MM payday he already had in hand for 2019.* Whether or not he’d have done so is not clear, but perhaps he’d have rolled the dice on boosting his salary both now and in the future. Certainly, barring a disastrous intervening campaign, it was highly likely he’d have elected to test the arb process in 2020.
Where things get confusing with this deal is the 2021 campaign, the final year covered. Under his original contract, which runs only through 2020, he did not obtain the right to elect free agency early. Accordingly, he’d already have been controlled through 2021 regardless of today’s extension. That distinguishes it in a critical way from, say, the recent extensions secured by Brad Hand (link) and Felipe Vazquez (link).
In other words, this deal is all about resolving the salary uncertainty and fixing a price tag for Iglesias. The Reds will lock into a new payday to shave off some of the earning upside for Iglesias. Instead of the $10MM total he was promised over the 2019 and 2020 seasons, with the upside to earn more in those years and in particular in 2021, Iglesias will now secure an additional $14.125MM in guaranteed money. It’s certainly possible he could have earned more than that through arbitration, with good health and continued saves tallies, particularly if he had opted into arbitration this season and secured a big new starting point.
As part and parcel of the financial maneuvering, this move represents an indication that the Reds expect Iglesias not only to remain a productive reliever, but also to hold down the closer’s role. Saves, after all, are a key driver of reliever earnings in arbitration. Of course, it’s also still possible he’ll be shipped out to another organization, but this contract may also be intended in part as a commitment to a core player.
Iglesias, who’ll turn 29 before the start of the 2019 campaign, showed quite a bit of promise as a starter in his debut season of 2015. For reasons that remain somewhat unclear, he was bumped into the bullpen in the ensuing season and ultimately slid into the ninth inning. Iglesias has since mostly functioned as a traditional closer, with occasional multi-inning appearances but not enough to stand out.
Though it’s tantalizing to think of what might have been, Iglesias has thrived as a reliever. In 163 total appearances from the pen, he has compiled 201 innings of 2.42 ERA ball with 10.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9, picking up 64 saves along the way. He sits in the 96 mph range with his average fastball and still leans on both a change and curve. Iglesias has been utterly dominant against righties and solid-enough against left-handed hitters; in the aggregate he’s among the game’s more effective relievers.
*The original version of this post mistakenly stated that Iglesias had decided not to opt out of his 2019 guaranteed salary. In fact, he had only previously decided against doing so in 2018.
Brewers Avoid Arbitration With Erik Kratz
The Brewers announced today that they have avoided arbitration with catcher Erik Kratz. The deal promises him $300K and provides a $1.2MM salary in the majors, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter).
Kratz had been projected by MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz to earn $1.7MM through the arbitration process. The team understandably wasn’t interested in paying quite that amount, so instead worked out an agreement that will provide Kratz more certainty than the standard arb contract (which promises only thirty days of salary as a starting point) but will limit what he can earn if he sticks on the MLB roster.
The 38-year-old Kratz did not even touch the majors until he was already in his age-30 season. He has now appeared in nine-consecutive MLB campaigns, though he also hasn’t generally commanded much of an opportunity to play.
It came somewhat out of the blue, then, when the Brewers acquired Kratz in the middle of the 2018 campaign and installed him as a not-infrequently-used backup. He ended up striding to the plate 219 times, one more than his previous season high (2013, with the Phillies).
Certainly, the results on offense weren’t much different than might have been expected. Kratz produced a meager .236/.280/.355 slash, which maps to a 70 wRC+ — only marginally better than his career 65 wRC+.
Of course, there’s quite a bit more than hitting to the job of a reserve catcher. Kratz excelled at framing pitches and smothering balls in the dirt, while also drawing plaudits from the Milwaukee organization for his game calling, work ethic, and clubhouse presence.
Clearly, the club valued what he brought to the table. After seeing MLB action with seven teams, then, it seems Kratz has found something of a home. Whether he’ll open the season on the active roster, and if so whether he’ll last, remains to be seen. But it’s still a continuation of a great story for a respected veteran grinder.
MLB Announces Gaming Partnership With MGM
Major League Baseball has announced a partnership agreement with MGM Resorts International. Among other things, the agreement makes MGM the “Official Gaming Partner of MLB.”
It’s unsurprising, but still quite notable, that the league appears to be embracing fully the onset of widespread legal gambling. There’s an immense amount of money to be made, after all, and MLB is sure to make more of it by participating without reservation. Daily fantasy sports may well prove only to have been a starter dish.
Some kind of engagement was inevitable when the Supreme Court opened the door to states to legalize gambling back in May. At the time, the league said its “most important priority is protecting the integrity of our games.” That topic is mentioned again in the MLB-MGM press release, though specifics remain unknown.
What is clear now is that MLB will jump into the exploding gambling market with both feet. MGM is set to “domestically promote its brand and gaming options across MLB’s digital and broadcast platforms,” with the sides also expressing an intention to seek “additional fan engagement offerings to be jointly developed.” It seems we can safely anticipate a high-visibility marketing campaign in the coming season.
Beyond that, MLB will allow MGM non-exclusive access to its statistics feed as well as an exclusive right to plug into “enhanced statistics.” Just what that means is anyone’s guess, but we probably oughtn’t be surprised to see prop bets on Statcast feats.
If you think that sort of thing sounds wild, gird yourself. Commissioner Rob Manfred emphasized today that the pacing of a baseball game allows for “an opportunity to be creative with respect to the types of wagers” that can be facilitated in the midst of a game, as ESPN.com’s Darren Rovell tweets.
Full details obviously remain unknown, and the league is sure to remain mindful of some potential pitfalls (especially given the game’s history with gambling). In the aggregate, though, it seems the initial approach is one of expansive engagement, not of wary first steps. Needless to say, it’s a brave new world for baseball.
Chris Archer Undergoes Procedure To Repair Hernia
Pirates righty Chris Archer has undergone a procedure to repair a bilateral hernia, the club announced. He’s expected to require approximately six weeks to recover.
The surgery does not appear to represent any kind of threat to Archer’s ability to contribute to the Bucs in 2019. The club says it’s “anticipated” that he’ll “be on or close to a regular schedule for the 2019 season.”
Presumably, the organization cautious phrasing is mostly designed to avoid over-promising. But it also hints at the realities of recovering from a core muscle procedure, which isn’t sure to be straightforward. No doubt the organization will be conservative in bringing Archer along this spring.
Expectations remain high for Archer, who came over in a surprising trade deadline swap. Though he continues to turn in sparkling peripherals, Archer has also not posted a sub-4.00 ERA season in any of the past three years. Reversing that run of disappointment will certainly require good health.
It has thus far been a fairly eventful offseason for a Pirates team that will try to contend but likely won’t spend big to do so. They sent fellow starter Joe Musgrove out for his own abdominal procedure about a month ago. Meanwhile, the club has (true to character) pursued a few low-cost means of unearthing value, inking Jung Ho Kang and Lonnie Chisenhall to affordable, one-year pacts.
Projecting Payrolls: Minnesota Twins
As we kick off the eighth installment of this series, here are links to the previous team payroll projections:
Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox
If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.
Today, we examine a club in one of baseball’s worst divisions that is nonetheless seemingly far from contention: the Minnesota Twins.
Team Leadership
Despite rumored relocation and contraction in the 1990s and early 2000s, Twins ownership has been impressively stable. Banker Carl Pohlad purchased the team in 1984, passing it to his children upon his death in 2009. Pohlad’s son, Jim, succeeded his father as Chairman of the ballclub and the public face of the franchise. With the sparkling Target Field opening in 2010, it appears as though the team is married to the Pohlads and the Twin Cities for the foreseeable future.
The front office is headed by general manager Thad Levine, hired from the Texas Rangers following the 2016 season to resuscitate the Minnesota franchise after over a decade as assistant general manager in Texas. The front office also brought in Derek Falvey as chief baseball officer contemporaneously with Levine. With two years on the job and despite a surprise run to the American League Wild Card Game in 2017, Levine and Falvey have primarily focused on clearing the financial books to rebuild the roster in their image moving forward.
Historical Payrolls
Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Twins, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.
The Twins spent a franchise record on payroll in 2018 and it wasn’t particularly close to the previous high water mark in 2011.
Spending under Carl Pohlad was consistently among the lowest in the league. When his children took over and the club moved into Target Field, spending immediately increased in a meaningful way prior to a mini-rebuild in 2013-14. The days of Minnesota spending alongside the likes of Oakland and Tampa Bay appear to be a thing of the past.
While the Twins have never come particularly close to the luxury tax threshold, the team has made some major endeavors into the international amateur marketplace…and not just in Latin America. The franchise’s marquee amateur signing was that of Miguel Sano, whose $3.15 million bonus in 2009 set a record for a foreign amateur at the time. The franchise’s wide vision also led them to give outfielder Max Kepler an $800,000 bonus out of Germany in the same 2009 class. That said, the Twins weren’t one of the clubs that blew past the league-imposed soft spending limits for international amateurs or North American draftees.
Not included above: a $12.85 million posting fee to negotiate with Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park prior to the 2016 season. More on Park below.
Future Liabilities
This is quite possibly the funniest chart of any team in the series: the Twins have $0 guaranteed on their books beyond 2019.
This chart would have included $3 million in 2019 and $500,000 in 2020 for Park, but the Korean first baseman elected to forgo his guaranteed salaries in exchange for an outright release that permitted him to return to the Nexen Heroes for the 2018 season.
With Park out of the picture and buyouts paid to Santana and Morrison, the Twins find themselves only with the contract-year commitments to Reed, Castro, and Pineda as well as the final payment due to San Diego for Hughes.
Reed came to Minnesota as a closing candidate in his late-20s, but imploded in his debut season with the team, showing velocity decreases of nearly 1.5 miles per hour on both his fastball and his slider, a big drop in strikeout rate, a huge uptick in homer rate, and an upper arm injury. The Twins can take solace in the facts that Reed has long succeeded in Major League bullpens and that his injury was apparently to his biceps instead of his elbow or shoulder.
Castro has enjoyed a nice career with a slightly below-average bat complementing elite framing, but a meniscus injury wiped out most of his 2018. With Mitch Garver and Willians Astudillo providing more interesting options as the club continues to rebuild, it’s possible that Castro could find it tough to come by plate appearances in 2019.
Pineda was paid in 2018 to rehabilitate following Tommy John surgery in the hopes that he would prove to be a bargain in 2019. In late August, 13 months removed from his operation, Pineda suffered a torn meniscus, derailing a September Twins debut. He figures to be ready for Spring Training.
While the guarantees are rather ho-hum, there is plenty of organizational intrigue to be found in the arbitration-eligible ranks. Here are their arbitration projections (salary projections by MLBTR and Matt Swartz):
Odorizzi and Gibson both enjoyed strong 2018s on the heels of disappointing 2017 campaigns. Should either or both succeed again in early 2019, Minnesota will likely find themselves with a difficult decision to make: extend or trade. While the team should plausibly be able to fill one 2020 rotation spot between Triple-A southpaws Stephen Gonsalves and Lewis Thorpe, they will need significant depth behind Jose Berrios to contend in what could be a wide-open American League Central.
Cron was a shrewd pickup from the cost-shaving Rays and figures to replace icon Joe Mauer‘s production at first base for a small fraction of the financial cost. Rosario offers a similar power-first, minus-defense profile, albeit from left field. Kepler offers a solid mix of power and defense, but his on-base skills have limited his overall effectiveness to date. Improved on-base ability would propel Kepler to be a plus regular.
Speaking of plus regulars, as recently as this time last year, the Twins surely thought that they had two of them on their hands in the forms of Sano and Buxton. Despite missing 94 games between 2016-17, Sano blasted 53 Major League homers over those two years at 23 and 24. Buxton, just 22 and 23 in 2016-17, had seemingly established himself as a below-average offensive performer with loud tools who was nevertheless an impact player on the strength of elite speed and defense in center field. Then both players imploded in 2018, combining to post -0.4 WAR while Buxton spent more time at Triple-A than in the Majors (due in part, controversially, to service time concerns). Moving forward, the team will need big rebounds from both young stars.
Rogers sizzled in 2018, pitching well versus right-handed batters and positively stifling lefties to the tune of a 1.39 FIP. He figures to be an important bullpen piece in his age-28 season this year.
It seems as though it has been many years since May, a former top-100 prospect, shined in the Minnesota rotation. Alas, it was just 2015 that May pitched to a 3.25 FIP over 114 2/3 innings, emerging as a potential key piece for the Twins. Then, the injury bug derailed his career in a significant way, first via a stress fracture in his back and then with Tommy John surgery. Finally returning to Major League action on July 31, 2018, May threw 25 1/3 splendid innings while striking out nearly 13 batters per nine innings. A healthy May will be an asset at the back of the Twins’ bullpen.
Finally, Grossman and Adrianza appear to be non-tender candidates.
What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?
In projecting the 2019 payroll as the 2018 season wrapped up, Pohlad acknowledged that the club possessed significant payroll flexibility but countered that “I don’t know if you can ever go out in the offseason and sign a face-of-the-franchise player,” following up with an acknowledgment that “everyone knows my aversion to long commitments. Most often, they do not turn out to be successful, in terms of getting your return on them.” Levine seemed to admit that the Twins don’t expect big-time free agents to target Minnesota as a possible landing spot, commenting that while the team planned to pursue important free agents, “whether or not they’d actually want to come here would be yet to be determined.” Falvey seemingly drove the point home, arguing that “we know that free agency can be a risky place to spend a lot of time.”
While the front office is seemingly willing to take on salary to improve, it doesn’t look like paying top-of-the-market prices for premium talent is going to be a big part of team building in the Twin Cities this winter.
Are the Twins a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?
Given the comments from Pohlad, Levine, and Falvey, and considering the Twins’ market, it’s difficult to envision a scenario in which Minnesota is a finalist for either player. Still, if management was being coy or considers one of them an exception, the Twins do currently have the payroll space to accommodate a huge salary. A monster contract has the potential to hamstring the franchise in the future, however, making them an extreme long shot for Harper or Machado.
What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?
Unlike the Red Sox in the previous piece, the luxury tax will not be a factor for the Twins.
After seeing his club finish at 78-84 in 2018 and examining the roster in place, it’s tough to imagine Pohlad sinking a significant payroll increase into this team. However, such an increase isn’t required to make a couple of big additions given the dearth of committed payroll at this juncture in the offseason.
Assuming that Grossman and Adrianza are non-tendered — far from a sure thing — the Twins would enter the offseason with just $76.9 million committed to the roster, approximately 41.5 percent of which will expire at the end of the season in the form of payments for Reed, Castro, Pineda, Hughes, Santana, and Morrison ($31.95 million).
Put bluntly, while ownership and management sometimes wax poetic to the media regarding the state of their franchise, the Twins genuinely have a ton of payroll flexibility both now and into the future.
While I doubt that Levine will get north of $130 million with which to work, I could see Pohlad authorizing a payroll that is nearly on par with the one he authorized in 2018.
Projected 2019 Payroll: $125 million
Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $48.1 million
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Arbitration Breakdown: Trevor Bauer
Over the last few days, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2019 arbitration projections are available right here.
Trevor Bauer enters his third year of arbitration following a career year, in which he had a 2.21 ERA and struck out 221 hitters in 175 1/3 innings. Although he only recorded 12 wins and started 27 games, Bauer is still projected for a sizable $5.075MM raise to propel him from $6.525MM in 2018 to $11.6MM in salary for the 2019 season.
Bauer’s season is somewhat tricky in that his ERA is extremely low and quite rare for an arbitration-eligible pitcher in his service class. However, he also didn’t throw many innings compared to the few pitchers in this class who posted similarly low ERAs. Among pitchers in his service class over the past five years, Max Scherzer and Jeff Samardzija both had ERAs just below 3.00. However, with 214 1/3 and 219 2/3 innings, respectively, they had considerably larger workloads. Scherzer won 21 games en route to a Cy Young back in 2013, so that netted him a service-class record $8.8MM raise. Samardzija got a $4.46MM raise — lower than Bauer’s projected raise — but he also only won seven games back in 2014. As such, it makes sense that Bauer would be projected for a larger raise. Clayton Kershaw actually had an ERA of 1.83 going into his third year of arbitration, but he signed a multi-year deal and is probably not a relevant comp for that reason.
The most relevant may be Doug Fister in 2015, who had a 16-6 record (four more wins than Bauer at 12-6) and a 2.41 ERA (similar to Bauer’s 2.21). Importantly, Fister’s 164 innings from that season are only 11 1/3 fewer than Bauer threw in 2018. That was four years ago, and it was good for a $4.2MM raise. The big advantage that Bauer has over Fister is that he struck out more than twice as many hitters. Fister fanned a mere 98 batters, while Bauer recorded a third strike against a whopping 221 hitters. It seems like this should make Fister’s raise a floor, although the four fewer wins could prove important. Still, I think the $5.075MM raise my model projects for Bauer is a defensible one.
If we step away from ERA to find reasonable comparables other than Fister, we find a couple interesting starters who recently had 200-plus strikeouts in fewer than 200 innings. Tyson Ross got a $4.38MM raise in 2016 after a 10-12 season with a 3.26 ERA, in which he whiffed 212 men in 196 frames. Michael Pineda racked up 207 strikeouts in 175 2/3 innings the following season, though he only received a $3.1MM raise thanks to an ugly 6-12 record and decidedly sub-par 4.82 ERA. Ross is the more logical comp, but with Bauer producing an ERA a full run lower, he should land north of Ross’ raise.
Jake Arrieta is another somewhat interesting and relevant comp. Two years ago, the right-hander struck out 190 batters in 197 1/3 innings, with more wins (18) than Bauer but an inferior ERA (3.10). Arrieta received a $4.94MM raise.
Between Fister, Ross, and Arrieta, we have three starters who received raises between $4.2MM and $4.94MM when they were in this service class. All three fall short of Bauer in one category or another. With natural salary inflation, I think the model is probably in the right neighborhood for Bauer for his 2019 salary forecast.
Pirates Designate Alex McRae For Assignment
The Pirates announced that they’ve designated right-hander Alex McRae for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to outfielder Lonnie Chisenhall, whose previously reported one-year deal has now been formally announced.
McRae, 25, made his MLB debut with the Bucs in 2018, allowing four runs with five strikeouts and five walks in 6 1/3 innings of relief. The former 10th-round pick (2014) spent the bulk of the season in the rotation for the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate, where he logged a 4.77 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9. McRae’s sinker sat at 92.4 mph during his brief MLB audition, and he’s used the pitch to generate average or better ground-ball tendencies throughout his minor league career.
While he hasn’t found success in Triple-A or the Majors yet, McRae did post a 3.61 ERA with 5.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.54 HR/9 and a 49.1 percent ground-ball rate in 149 2/3 innings with Pittsburgh’s Double-A affiliate in 2017.