AL Notes: Twins, McCullers, Rays, Zunino, Orioles
Center fielder Byron Buxton and third baseman Miguel Sano were among the Twins’ best performers during their 2017 playoff season, but both players took massive steps backward during the team’s disappointing 2018 campaign. Now, the down seasons the pair endured are affecting the Twins’ offseason plans, Dan Hayes of The Athletic explains (subscription required). Had those two remained strong contributors last season, Minnesota would’ve been more willing to go “full speed ahead” this winter in an attempt to catch the AL Central rival Indians, Hayes writes. Instead, the Twins’ primary focus right now is to help those two bounce back in 2019. If Buxton and Sano do rebound, Twins ownership would give the team’s front office “the green light to take more of an aggressive step forward with this unit of players,” general manager Thad Levine said, adding he and chief baseball officer Derek Falvey “would feel much more emboldened to take that step forward.”
Here’s more from the American League:
- Even though the Astros’ Lance McCullers Jr. pitched in September and October, the right-hander tells Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (subscription required) that he was aware by then that he needed Tommy John surgery. McCullers revealed that he received the news when he met with surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Aug. 30, but the 25-year-old – with the blessing of ElAttrache and the Astros – put the procedure on hold until the offseason. While pitching through a partially torn UCL was “painful,” McCullers wasn’t going to make the injury worse by doing it, and he knew he’d miss 2019 no matter what. McCullers ended up going under the knife this past Tuesday, and is aiming for a spring 2020 return. Kaplan’s full piece is worth checking out for more from McCullers.
- Catcher Mike Zunino, whom the Rays acquired from the Mariners on Thursday, looks like a solid addition from an on-field standpoint. The Rays also place a great deal of value on Zunino as a person, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, noting he should help fill the veteran leadership void left by free agents Sergio Romo and Carlos Gomez. Indeed, GM Erik Neander said that “[Zunino’s] somebody that we see that could take a leadership role with our group.’‘ In terms of what Zunino provides as a defender, Neander offered a rave review, pointing to “how he navigates a staff, how he manages people, what kind of teammate he is, the care factor, the confidence that he is putting down the right fingers.”
- Unsurprisingly, the Orioles won’t be big players in free agency, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com hears. However, Kubatko relays that they will prioritize adding infielders, likely on short-term deals. Assuming the rebuilding Orioles don’t contend in 2019, they could then try to trade those additions over the summer, Kubatko notes. Of the infield options currently on Baltimore’s 40-man roster (Chris Davis, Tim Beckham, Jonathan Villar, Renato Nunez, Breyvic Valera, Steve Wilkerson and Engelb Vielma), only Villar and Nunez offered passable major league production last season.
Offseason Outlook: New York Mets
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.
The Mets suffered through their second straight disastrous season in 2018, leading to major changes atop their baseball department. General manager Sandy Alderson stepped away in June to battle a recurrence of cancer, which proved to be the end of a tenure that was occasionally fruitful but recently disappointing.
Seeking a replacement for Alderson, the Mets mostly interviewed candidates who were already executives at the major league level. In the end, though, they made the unexpected decision to name longtime player agent Brodie Van Wagenen as their GM.
Mets owners Fred Wilpon and Jeff Wilpon were already plenty familiar with Van Wagenen, who counted big-name Mets Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Yoenis Cespedes among his clients when he was with CAA Sports. Now that Van Wagenen is on the Mets’ side, Fred Wilpon believes his “high character, blend of analytics, scouting and development ideas” will help the franchise escape the doldrums.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Yoenis Cespedes, OF: $58.5MM through 2020
- David Wright, 3B: $27MM through 2020 (insurance covers all but $6.75MM)
- Jay Bruce, OF/1B: $26MM through 2020
- Jason Vargas, LHP: $10MM through 2020 (includes $2MM buyout of 2020 club option)
- Juan Lagares, OF: $9.5MM through 2020 (includes $500K buyout of 2020 club option)
- Todd Frazier, 3B: $9MM through 2019
- Anthony Swarzak, RP: $8MM through 2019
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salary via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Jacob deGrom – $12.9MM
- Noah Syndergaard – $5.9MM
- Zack Wheeler – $5.3MM
- Wilmer Flores – $4.7MM
- Michael Conforto – $4.4MM
- Travis d’Arnaud – $3.7MM
- Steven Matz – $3.0MM
- Kevin Plawecki – $1.3MM
- Non-tender candidates: Flores, d’Arnaud
Free Agents
- AJ Ramos, Devin Mesoraco, Jerry Blevins, Jose Reyes, Austin Jackson, Jose Lobaton, Rafael Montero, Phillip Evans, Jamie Callahan
[New York Mets depth chart | New York Mets payroll outlook]
The Mets started 2018 a red-hot 11-1, but they began an epic nosedive soon after and sat 16 games under .500 at the All-Star break. By then, New York’s chances of contending were out the window, and the question was whether it was going to retain the deGrom/Syndergaard duo past the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. That same month, the outspoken Van Wagenen proclaimed the Mets should trade deGrom if they weren’t going to extend him. Ultimately, the Mets didn’t reach an extension with deGrom or deal him or Syndergaard. Depending on the Mets’ GM hire, both deGrom and Syndergaard could have been trade candidates this offseason. But with Van Wagenen now calling the shots, the team’s not primed to kickstart a rebuild by parting with either of its superstar hurlers. Rather, according to Van Wagenen, the Mets “will win now,” and they “expect to be in on every free agent.”
In light of Van Wagenen’s free-agent declaration, visions of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado may have been dancing in the heads of the most optimistic of Mets fans. However, even though the Mets play in the majors’ biggest market and have zero dollars on their books past 2020, it’s hard to imagine them reeling in either. For one, there’s no word on how much the Mets are willing to increase their payroll over last year’s $150MM-plus Opening Day sum. Landing Harper or Machado would require a sizable jump over that figure, as the Mets’ payroll is already nearing $135MM heading into 2019. Secondly, the Mets have never even doled out a $150MM guarantee, yet both Harper and Machado could push or exceed $400MM on their next deals.
While Harper and Machado seem likely to be out of New York’s price range, the club could still come away from free agency having made significant improvements. There are more realistic targets out there, including for the Mets’ bullpen, which is a focal point for the team this offseason. Per Van Wagenen, the Mets are seeking “multiple” relievers to upgrade over last year’s bullpen – a unit that was among the majors’ worst. As things stand, right-handers Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman and Drew Smith are the only current Mets relievers who were remotely effective over a fair amount innings in 2018 (lefty Daniel Zamora also impressed, but he did so over a mere nine frames). There’s a lot of work ahead as a result, though there are also several proven relievers available on the open market.
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Astros Interested In James Paxton
The Mariners are set to retool this offseason, leaving few to no untouchables on their roster. Left-hander James Paxton has emerged as arguably their highest-profile trade candidate early this offseason, and he’s drawing interest from an array of teams, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The Astros are part of that group, Rosenthal reports.
As World Series contenders who are seeking starters, the Astros are a logical match for Paxton. Although the club had an elite rotation in 2018, it could lose both Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency, and it just found out Lance McCullers Jr. will miss all of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Those factors leave aces Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole as the Astros’ only rotation locks at the moment, though it seems they’ll return veteran Collin McHugh to a starting role after he thrived as a reliever last season. But those three are only signed through next season, whereas Paxton’s controllable through 2020.
Even if the Astros do move McHugh back to their rotation next season, they’ll still be short on established starters. Swingman Brad Peacock and a series of youngsters – including Forrest Whitley (perhaps the game’s best pitching prospect) and Josh James – are among their other rotation possibilities.
Notably, Seattle and Houston are in the same division, which in theory could make a trade unlikely. However, if the Mariners don’t see themselves as near-term contenders in the AL West, their mindset should be to take the best possible offer. The Astros may be in position to make the most generous proposal for the 30-year-old Paxton, given that they own one of the majors’ best farm systems. Houston will face plenty of competition, though, including from the AL rival Yankees.
While the flamethrowing Paxton comes with a troubling injury history and has never approached the 200-inning mark in a season, he’s still among the game’s top starters on a per-inning basis. Paxton’s affordable control only adds to his value, as he’s projected to earn a reasonable $9MM in 2019.
Looking For A Match In A James Paxton Trade
Earlier this week, the Mariners and Rays made the offseason’s first major trade, a five-player swap in which catcher Mike Zunino and outfielder Mallex Smith changed teams. That may prove to be the first of multiple noteworthy deals Mariners trade-happy GM Jerry Dipoto orchestrates this winter, especially considering his intention to “re-imagine” his team’s roster. The majority of that roster is available for trade, Jon Heyman of Fancred reported prior to the Zunino deal, though he added that outfielder Mitch Haniger, closer Edwin Diaz and left-handed Marco Gonzales appear safe.
The most interesting name missing from Heyman’s list is Gonzalez’s fellow southpaw starter James Paxton, who’s Seattle’s closest thing to an ace. With the 30-year-old Paxton down to his final two seasons of team control, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times has heard that the Mariners will trade him this winter.
While Paxton does have a checkered injury history and has only exceeded 160 innings in a year once (last season, when he tallied 160 1/3), the fireballer is still one of the majors’ premier lefties. Paxton has averaged just 24 starts and 139 innings a season since 2016, his breakout campaign, but the Big Maple nonetheless racked up 11.9 fWAR during that three-year span. In that regard, only 12 starters bettered Paxton, who’s sandwiched between Noah Syndergaard and Luis Severino. And since 2017, Paxton ranks fourth among starters in K/9 (11.06), fifth in FIP (2.95), 11th in K/BB ratio (4.61) and tied for 21st in ERA (3.40).
Paxton’s projected to earn $9MM in 2019, a far lighter commitment than the best free-agent starters will rake in this winter, which only adds to his appeal. Acquiring Paxton would still sting a team to a degree, of course, as that club would presumably need to part with a big-time haul to land him. In shipping Paxton out, perhaps Seattle would significantly boost a farm system which has long languished at the bottom of the majors.
Here’s a look at potential suitors for Paxton, going from best to worst record in 2018:
Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.
The Astros fell just shy of their second straight World Series berth in 2018. Now, with the offseason underway, they’re facing multiple key departures in free agency.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jose Altuve, 2B: $136.5MM through 2024
- Justin Verlander, RHP: $28MM through 2019
- Josh Reddick, OF: $26MM through 2020
- Yuli Gurriel, INF: $18MM through 2020
- George Springer, OF: $12MM through 2019
- Joe Smith, RP: $8MM through 2019
- Hector Rondon, RP: $4.5MM through 2019
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Gerrit Cole – $13.1MM
- Roberto Osuna – $6.5MM
- Collin McHugh – $5.4MM
- Carlos Correa – $5.1MM
- Lance McCullers – $4.6MM
- Will Harris – $3.6MM
- Ryan Pressly – $3.1MM
- Brad Peacock – $2.9MM
- Jake Marisnick – $2.4MM
- Chris Herrmann – $1.5MM
- Chris Devenski – $1.4MM
- Non-tender candidates: Marisnick, Herrmann
Free Agents
- Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton, Marwin Gonzalez, Brian McCann, Evan Gattis, Tony Sipp, Martin Maldonado
[Astros Depth Chart | Astros Payroll Information]
Elite starting pitching was a hallmark of the Astros from 2017-18, but at the outset of the offseason, their rotation has lost quite a bit of luster. The terrific tandem of Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton may exit in free agency, while Lance McCullers Jr. will miss all of 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this month. Fortunately for Houston, it still boasts a tremendous one-two punch in ace right-handers Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. The team’s starting mix is murkier thereafter, though president and general manager Jeff Luhnow suggested when McCullers went under the knife that the Astros would turn back to Collin McHugh as a starter after he worked exclusively out of their bullpen in 2018.
The 31-year-old McHugh was quietly one of the majors’ most effective relievers last season, so deploying him as a starter would obviously weaken Houston’s bullpen. At the same time, it would give the Astros another viable starter, something McHugh served as from 2014-17. He relieved last season because Houston had incredible starting depth, which isn’t quite the case right now. That’s not to say the cupboard is empty after McHugh, though, as the Astros still possess arguably the game’s No. 1 pitching prospect – towering righty Forrest Whitley, 21 – not to mention fellow top-100 prospect Josh James and swingman Brad Peacock. But Whitley seems likely to open 2019 at Triple-A, a level he hasn’t yet reached, and Peacock could stay in a relief role after totaling just one start in 61 appearances last season. James may have the most realistic chance of the three to begin 2019 in the Astros’ rotation, and the 25-year-old flamethrower did stand out late last season in the majors – albeit over just 23 1/3 innings divided between the rotation and bullpen.
Beyond Whitley, James and Peacock, there are a slew of starting options in the minors who either carry limited track records in the majors or no experience at the game’s highest level, as Jake Kaplan of The Athletic recently detailed (subscription required). With that in mind, it seems clear that restocking their rotation will be a priority for the Astros this winter.
There hasn’t been any word on whether the Astros will make an earnest attempt to re-sign Keuchel, a Scott Boras client who’s on a collision course with a substantial payday. On the other hand, Morton has made it known he’d welcome a return to Houston in 2019. Morton’s on the market unfettered after the Astros surprisingly decided against issuing him a one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer at the beginning of the offseason. It’s fair to surmise Morton’s age (35 next week) and lengthy injury history played a role in that call, and those factors will also tamp down his earning power on the open market. Regardless, Morton was stellar as an Astro over the past two years – including during a 167-inning, 3.13 ERA showing in 2018 – and would be difficult to replace.
With the futures of Keuchel and Morton in question, the Astros figure to be in on some of the top available starting pitchers in the coming weeks – especially considering Verlander, Cole and McHugh are each signed for just one more season. Luhnow swung blockbuster trades in the past to acquire Verlander and Cole, and he may again go that route to bolster his rotation. It helps that the Astros happen to have one of the game’s most impressive farm systems, which could give them a legitimate chance to win a bidding war for the Indians’ Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco or Trevor Bauer (though the latter has had it out with Houston in the past), three front-line starters who each come with two or more years of control. The Indians will at least consider offers on that trio, while another high-caliber arm – James Paxton of the Mariners – may also find himself on the move.
Whether the Mariners would send Paxton to Houston, one of their AL West rivals, is anyone’s guess. The same concerns wouldn’t exist with Zack Greinke, whom the Diamondbacks could part with in a payroll-cutting measure. Even though he’s 35, Greinke remains an outstanding starter. However, he’s owed another $95.5MM through 2021, which not only limits his trade value but could scare off potential suitors (including Houston, though the club could likely afford to take on his contract). More reasonably priced targets may include hard-throwing lefty Robbie Ray, one of Greinke’s Arizona teammates, as well as the Blue Jays’ Marcus Stroman, the Orioles’ Dylan Bundy and the Yankees’ Sonny Gray. Aside from Gray, who’s slated to become a free agent in a year, all of those hurlers come with at least two controllable seasons. And while Stroman, Bundy and Gray struggled in 2018, it’s worth noting each were above average in terms of spin rate, in which the Astros are big believers.
Houston would likely be buying at least somewhat low on Stroman, Bundy or Gray, given the down years they had. Free agent Garrett Richards, another spin rate darling, also stands out as an intriguing buy-low candidate. Having undergone Tommy John surgery last July, Richards probably wouldn’t contribute in 2019. Although, if he inks a two-year deal, he’d be able to help Houston come 2020, when some or all of Verlander, Cole and McHugh could be off the team.
As far as healthy free-agent starters go, perhaps the Astros will explore the top of the market, where Patrick Corbin, Keuchel and Nathan Eovaldi are the headliners. The next tier includes J.A. Happ, Japanese lefty Yusei Kikuchi (if his team posts him), Morton and Hyun-Jin Ryu. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Astros come away with any of those starters, barring a trade(s).
A trade may be the Astros’ preferred way to upgrade behind the plate, which seems inevitable. With Brian McCann, Martin Maldonado and DH/onetime catcher Evan Gattis now unsigned, Houston’s down to Max Stassi and recent waiver claim Chris Herrmann as its backstops. Stassi was effective in 2018, especially as a defender, but his offensive production cratered after May. That could help point the Astros back to the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto, the sport’s premier catcher in 2018. The Astros were in on Realmuto last winter, when they reportedly considered offering coveted young outfielder Kyle Tucker for him, but Miami ultimately retained its franchise player. However, now that Realmuto’s a year closer to free agency and still refuses to sign an extension with the Marlins, a trade’s probably coming sometime soon.
Houston’s certainly a logical fit for Realmuto, though it’ll have some alternatives in free agency if it’s unable to swing a deal with Miami. The leading member of the free-agent group, Yasmani Grandal, has already landed on the Astros’ radar. The 30-year-old Grandal’s the only catcher in the game who was a better pitch framer than Stassi in 2018, and he also brings a track record of quality hitting to the table.
While catcher looks like the Astros’ focus with respect to their position player cast, there are other concerns, including at DH. As excellent as the Astros were from 2017-18, their primary DHs – Carlos Beltran two years ago, Gattis last season – underwhelmed during that span. Sure, Gattis smacked 25 home runs in 2018, but he was a mediocre hitter overall (101 OPS+, 99 wRC+). Meanwhile, even though he was playing his age-38 season, the Mariners’ Nelson Cruz continued to serve as an offensive force. Cruz is now one of the foremost hitters available in free agency, and has drawn the Astros’ interest since the market opened.
Speculatively, the Astros may have other sluggers on their radar, including Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals first baseman/outfielder Jose Martinez, Rays first baseman C.J. Cron and Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak. It’s true that Houston already has a starting first baseman in Yuli Gurriel, but he was mediocre in 2018 and may be better served as a utility player. Taking on such a role would enable Gurriel to at least partially replace free-agent Swiss Army knife Marwin Gonzalez, who appears to be on his way to landing a raise outside of Houston.
Gonzalez saw more left field action in 2018 than any other Astro, which could put them in the market for help there if the 21-year-old Tucker’s not ready to assume the reins. If next season began today, Houston would possibly be looking at a Tony Kemp/Jake Marisnick platoon in left. Needless to say, that’s not the most confidence-inspiring duo. If the Astros really want to swing for the fences (no pun intended), they could go after free agent Bryce Harper, whom they nearly acquired from Washington at last summer’s non-waiver trade deadline. On paper, Harper’s projected annual salary ($30MM-plus) would push the Astros’ 2019 payroll to around $165MM – roughly a $5MM boost over last year’s franchise-record Opening Day outlay, and that’s without any improvements at other positions. However, the Astros only have $50MM-plus tied up in their 2020 roster and just $29MM locked in from 2020-24. A Harper pursuit may not be wholly out of the question, then, though the Astros could deem it infeasible with no proven starting pitchers under control past next season and three core players (Bregman, Correa and Springer) possibly due for massive extensions in the coming years.
Should a Harper-Astros union prove to be a flight of fancy, the club could still better its outfield mix in free agency with someone like center fielder A.J. Pollock, who’d enable Springer to move back to a corner on a full-time basis, or a high-profile corner bat such as Michael Brantley or Andrew McCutchen. For the most part, corner outfield trade possibilities don’t look as enticing.
As is the case with every team, the Astros figure to dedicate at least some offseason attention to their bullpen. The unit may lose McHugh to the rotation and lefty Tony Sipp to free agency, after all. Still, with Peacock, Ryan Pressly, Roberto Osuna, Hector Rondon, Will Harris, Chris Devenski and Joe Smith slated to return, the Astros’ relief corps is in enviable shape. If Houston’s bullpen needs anything, it’s a southpaw to complement its septet of accomplished righties. It’s unclear whether the Astros are interested in re-signing Sipp, who bounced back in 2018 after two dreadful seasons. In the event Sipp’s on his way out, Houston may consider fellow free agents Zach Britton, Andrew Miller, Justin Wilson, Oliver Perez and Jerry Blevins to replace him. It’s worth noting the Astros already have connections to four of those players. They unsuccessfully chased Britton and Wilson on the trade market in recent years, traded for Perez in 2015 (it didn’t go well), and made a generous offer to Miller during his previous trip to free agency in 2014.
It’s evident the Astros have an array of plausible paths they could take this winter in order to up their chances of winning a third straight AL West title in 2019 and recapturing World Series glory. Luhnow believes the Astros “have a championship-caliber roster already in place,” but don’t expect him to rest on his laurels in the coming months. With Keuchel, Morton and Gonzalez potentially leaving Houston, inactivity isn’t an option.
West Notes: Rox, Realmuto, Padres, Rangers, Mariners
Despite the struggles of the Rockies’ catchers in 2018, it doesn’t appear they’ll be among the most ardent suitors for Marlins backstop J.T. Realmuto, Thomas Harding of MLB.com hears. It’s unclear, though, whether Colorado will make a less splashy attempt to upgrade over its current trio of Chris Iannetta, Tony Wolters and Tom Murphy, a woeful offensive group in 2018. Realmuto was the game’s premier catcher last season, on the other hand, but his refusal to sign an extension with the Marlins makes him a prime trade candidate. With two years of arbitration control remaining, Realmuto would bring back an impressive haul, but it doesn’t look as if it’ll come from Colorado.
- The Padres are rife with major league-caliber outfielders, meaning they’re going to “have to make some decisions and calls on” that area of their roster this offseason, general manager A.J. Preller said this week (via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). Out of the Padres’ current group of outfielders, Cassavell classifies Wil Myers, Travis Jankowski, Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes as trade candidates, adding that one of the latter two is likeliest to end up on the move. As right-handed sluggers with defensive limitations, Renfroe and Reyes offer similar skill sets, observes Cassavell, who notes that dealing one of the two would enable San Diego to move Myers from third base back to the outfield. The 27-year-old Myers, who owns the Padres’ second-richest contract (he’s guaranteed $64MM through 2023), saw his first real action at third base in 2018. Advanced metrics assigned Myers mixed reviews over a fairly small sample of appearances (36), as he accounted for one DRS and minus-5.4 UZR.
- The Rangers elected to decline catcher Robinson Chirinos‘ option for 2019 because of both the salary they’d have owed him ($4.5MM) and his defensive woes, according to Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram. Chirinos was one of the majors’ worst defensive catchers in 2018, but it was still a surprise that Texas let him become a free agent. After all, the 34-year-old did offer solid offensive production for the fifth straight season, hitting .222/.338/.419 (103 wRC+) with 18 home runs in 426 plate appearances, and exercising his option hardly would’ve broken the bank. Further, the Rangers don’t seem to have a full-time replacement on hand, as they’re not of the belief either Jose Trevino or Isiah Kiner-Falefa is ready for No. 1 duties, per Wilson. Texas is in the market for a primary backstop as a result, and though there are several established veterans on the open market, Wilson suggests Chirinos’ successor could arrive via trade.
- Like their AL West rival in Arlington, the Mariners are seeking a starting catcher, having traded Mike Zunino to Tampa Bay on Thursday. With Zunino gone and the Mariners down to unproven 29-year-old David Freitas as their top option, Greg Johns of MLB.com runs down potential catcher acquisitions for the club. Considering the state of Seattle’s roster, GM Jerry Dipoto may attempt to trade for an experienced backstop who’s controllable for the next three to five years, writes Johns, who lists some potential targets in his piece.
Trade Deadline Retrospective: Harper, Astros, Garcia, Nats, Puig
Baseball fans everywhere were stripped of high-level trade deadline intrigue last season, as Ken Rosenthal details in a stunning report for The Athletic, when a trade that would have sent Bryce Harper to the Astros in exchange for a trio of prospects was nixed by Washington’s ownership group. The trade, said to have been agreed upon a day before the July 31 deadline, would have sent 2017 first-rounder J.B. Bukauskas to the Nats, as well as two other prospects, one of which was reportedly catcher Garrett Stubbs. Though Bukauskas faces questions about a third pitch, which could relegate him to eventual relief duty, and Stubbs has cooled after a blistering 2016 performance for Double-A Corpus Christi, the package was surely superior in value to the compensatory pick the Nationals will receive should Harper depart in free agency, which, as Rosenthal notes, will come after the fourth round in next year’s draft, by virtue of the club exceeding the luxury tax total in 2018. Houston, which received middling corner-outfield production from Josh Reddick and Marwin Gonzalez last season, would certainly have benefitted from Harper’s presence in a lineup diminished by injuries to Carlos Correa and a substandard season from George Springer, though the departing asset cost would’ve assuredly been hefty for only two months of the 25-year-old superstar.
- Though no official reason was offered for the disapproval, Rosenthal speculates the Nationals owners may have been worried about damaging their relationship with Harper in the offseason to come. The club, after all, did offer Harper a reported $300MM over ten years on the last day of the 2018 season, and figures to further its aggression in efforts to sign the generational talent. During the August waiver period, the club also shot down a Dodger effort to acquire Harper, according to a report from the Los Angeles Times. It appears this offer, which reportedly included outfielder Yasiel Puig at its center, was nixed at the front office level, though it’s certainly plausible that previous ownership mandates were a significant factor in the team’s eventual refusal to depart with the star. Puig, certainly, would have been an intriguing return for just over a month’s use of Harper – the 27-year-old has had his share of on-field dustups, to be sure, but has remained a force at the plate: in an odd reverse split, the polarizing Cuban has put up a 142 wRC+ against right-handed pitching the last two seasons, good for 12th among qualifiers in baseball during that span, and is under team control through the 2019 season.
- After being stonewalled in their Harper pursuit, sources told Rosenthal that the Astros pivoted their attention (to, obviously, no avail) in the final hours to White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia, dangling right-handed pitching prospect Francis Martes, whose damaged right elbow was apparently of no concern to the Southsiders. Garcia, who’s been around replacement-level in five of his six major league seasons thus far, seemed an odd target for an Astro club not much in need of a right-handed boost – the 27-year-old, after all, posted a minuscule 1.4% BB rate in the season’s first half, and again sunk to a level of below-league-average production by the time his season ended in knee surgery in mid-September.
AL West Notes: Correa, A’s, Beltre
Astros shortstop Carlos Correa announced today at a team benefit that he underwent surgery to repair a deviated septum last Monday. The nasal affliction, said the 24-year-old, was inhibiting his ability to breathe normally, especially when running the bases. Arguably the centerpiece of the team’s 2017 championship run, the former #1 overall pick slumped to a career-worst .239/.323/.405 games last season. He especially struggled in the season’s second half, posting a putrid 45 wRC+ and 24% hard contact rate over 133 PA following a return from the DL after a bout of lower back soreness. During multiple gatherings with the reporters on a crusty Minute Maid Park surface, the former Rookie of the Year made no effort to draw a nexus between the respiratory issues and his poor performance, but did note that he doesn’t expect to have surgery to address the lower-back ailment, with the Houston Chronicle’s Brian T. Smith tweeting that the shortstop is “doing well” right now.
In other news from around the division . . .
- On the heels of a wildly successful 2018 season, the A’s have announced changes to the team’s player development program, reports The Athletic’s Melissa Lockard. The club, apparently, is piggybacking on recent trends in the rookie-level Arizona League, where select teams – namely, the Padres, Indians, Cubs, and Giants – have added a second ‘affiliate’ to compete in the league. In this case, it seems the move is an effort to acclimate newly-signed international players to the American way of life (and professional baseball in the country) at a far more rapid rate than in the past. Eddie Menchaca, who managed the lone AZL affiliate for the club last year, will reprise his role as manager for one of the teams, in addition to fulfilling his newly-appointed duties as Latin American player development supervisor. The club’s farm, responsible in no small part for the team’s periodic, oft-unforeseen success over the last two decades, is ranked middle-of-the-pack in Baseball America’s latest update.
- Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News cites a source “close” to Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre in declaring that a decision on the 39-year-old’s future could come “within a week or so.” Beltre, of course, is deeply contemplating retirement, with a recent report by FanCred’s Jon Heyman noting that “the belief” is that the 21-year-veteran is leaning in that direction. If he is to return, Beltre seems to have given conflicting directives in the way of his future, with Grant noting that the Ranger dignitary “would like” to return to Texas but is most interested in playing for a contending team, of which category the 2019 Rangers are decidedly unlikely to fall into. The article, which details possible positional alignments for the 2019 club, in addition to revelatory quotes from GM Jon Daniels, is well worth a full read for Ranger fans of all sorts.
NL East Notes: Mike Fast, Braves, Nationals,
Analytics guru Mike Fast joined the Atlanta Braves organization this Wednesday, he announced via Twitter. Fast was formerly the director of research and development in Houston before leaving the organization in late September. The former semiconductor engineer will serve as a special assistant to GM Alex Anthopoulous, who has made it a priority to improve the Braves’ analytics department ever since his hiring in November of 2017, writes the Athletic’s David O’Brien. Per Anthopolous himself, Fast will be part of Atlanta’s senior leadership team, giving his input into all areas of baseball operations. Now, some other rumblings from around the NL East…
- Right field and catcher clearly require the attention of the Braves’ front office this winter, where current free agents Kurt Suzuki and newly-minted Silver Slugger Nick Markakis have left holes, but improving the bench is not much further down their winter checklist, writes Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Versatile defender Charlie Culberson was a bright spot for the bench unit in 2018, but they could use a power bat to fill the spot once occupied by Matt Adams (and most recently by current free agent Lucas Duda). Outfielder Adam Duvall was acquired from the Reds last season in part to fill that role, but he struggled mightily in his 33 games as a Brave. Duvall projects to earn $3.1MM his first time through arbitration this winter, which makes him a likely non-tender candidate. He is a career .230/.291/.454 hitter. Still, while GM Alex Anthopoulos said they will be more “open-minded” about spending significant dollars on the bench this season, that’s not a development likely to happen early in the free agent season.
- The Nationals do not see upgrading at second base as a priority this offseason, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. Earlier this week Dougherty tweeted that the Nats were comfortable going into next season with Howie Kendrick and Wilmer Difo manning the keystone. Still, it’s a bit surprising given Kendrick is coming off a ruptured achilles, and Difo hardly looked the part of a starter last season when he hit only .230/.298/.350 in 456 plate appearances. Interestingly, Rizzo cites the organization’s depth, specifically prospects Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia as reasons for their optimism about the position moving forward. Rizzo’s comments are interesting because it means the Nationals are presumably comfortable keeping Trea Turner at shortstop for the foreseeable future. Further, Washington may view Kieboom and/or Garcia to be closer to the majors than it might otherwise appear. Garcia spent the 2018 season between Single-A Hagerstown and High-A Potomac, though he won’t even turn 19 until May. The 21-year-old Kieboom is the more likely of the two to make a surprise jump to the bigs (a la Juan Soto), as he played the final 62 games of 2018 at Double-A Harrisburg, hitting .262/.326/.395. The Nationals have, however, reportedly expressed some interest in Josh Harrison, though the former Pirates utilityman could back up multiple positions around the diamond.
Latest On Orioles’ GM Search
It’s a time of change for the Orioles. Most notably, John and Lou Angelos have taken over regular operations from their father, Peter Angelos. The club has been without a manager since dismissing Buck Showalter, though that post figures to remain open for the time being. That’s because there’s an even more important hire in the works for the Angelos brothers, who are working to identify the person who’ll head up their baseball operations department.
In the interim, there is a small group of executives left over from Dan Duquette’s regime who are currently responsible for overseeing the roster moves in Baltimore this offseason. Brian Graham, the director of player development, is said to be handling the day-to-day operations as the interim GM. VP of baseball ops Brady Anderson and amateur scouting director Gary Rajsich are also present to weigh in on the offseason’s earliest action.
To this point, the Baltimore organization hasn’t settled on a job title for whomever becomes the organization’s top baseball decisionmaker. In and of itself this doesn’t mean much, but as the Athletic’s Dan Connolly pointed out in early October, there is a perplexing lack of clarity regarding division of labor moving forward. Brady Anderson, for one, has had significant negotiating responsibilities in the past, so his continued involvement is certainly notable, despite ownership’s claim that the new hire will have “final determination on all baseball matters”.
Here are the latest on the Orioles search:
Latest Updates – 11/10/18
- UPDATE: The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal now tweets that Tigers AGM David Chadd is no longer under consideration for the position in Baltimore. This coming on the heels of Chadd supposedly being a finalist for the position as of two days ago. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale had named Chadd as a finalist for the top spot in Baltimore (via Twitter), but that appears to no longer be the case.
- The Orioles are keeping most of the details regarding their GM search close to the vest, but Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reminds us (via Twitter) that their first priority is identifying the executive to head their baseball ops – that hire will have the prerogative to name their top assistant. The original plan was for the top hire to be given the title of President, but the exact nomenclature (more than the responsibilities) remains TBD. Presumably, this will depend upon who they bring aboard and what kind of title bump that individual requires.
- Regardless, there will be two eventual new hires to head up the O’s front office, and some names are starting to emerge. The oft-mentioned AGM of the Houston Astros Mike Elias remains in consideration, per the Athletic’s Dan Connolly, but two new names have entered the field as well: Phillies assistant GM Ned Rice and MLB Diversity Pipeline Director Tyrone Brooks. Before moving to the Phils front office in 2016, Ned Rice was an official with the Orioles for 11 years. Tyrone Brooks, for his part, took on the responsibility of driving diversity hires throughout MLB’s administrative levels in 2016 after Commissioner Rob Manfred created the role. He does has front office experience as well: he was a scout in the Indians organization before serving as an assistant GM with the Pittsburgh Pirates from 2009-2016.
- Also of note, vice president Brady Anderson did not represent the Orioles at last week’s GM meetings, despite his home being only an hour away. Connolly wonders if this might have been a signal from ownership that the runway is, in fact, clear for the next hire to run things without demonstrative input from incumbent front office holdovers like Anderson.
Click to review the potential names under consideration and prior updates to the process: