Official Super Two Cutoff
This year’s cutoff for players to achieve Super Two status, and thus be eligible for arbitration a year early, has been set at two years and 134 days of Major League service time (written as 2.134), tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick.
In order to reach Super Two status, a player must be in the top 22 percent of players with between two and three seasons of MLB service (in terms of total service time) and must have spent 86 days of the preceding season on a Major League roster or disabled list. That designation allows those players to reach arbitration eligibility a year early and go through arbitration four times as opposed to the standard three.
Not only does this increase players’ earning power in the ensuing season, but it also has a substantial impact on their earnings years down the line, as arbitration salaries are built upon the prior year’s earnings. By getting to arbitration early, players jump-start their earning potential a full year sooner than most of their peers. It’s hardly a surprise, then, that the current single-season salary record holder for an arbitration-eligible player, Josh Donaldson, reached Super Two status early in his career ($23MM). Nor is it surprising that Nolan Arenado, who is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to break that record this offseason, was also a Super Two player. Swartz projects Arenado to take home a whopping $26.1MM salary in his final winter of arbitration eligibility.
Here’s how this year’s 2.134 cutoff compares to recent years:
- 2017: 2.123
- 2016: 2.131
- 2015: 2.130
- 2014: 2.133
- 2013: 2.122
- 2012: 2.140
- 2011: 2.146
- 2010: 2.122
- 2009: 2.139
This year’s cutoff is the highest in a half decade, leaving a handful of players ever so slightly on the outside of the bubble. Among them are the Mariners’ Edwin Diaz (2.121), the Athletics’ Andrew Triggs (2.123), the Dodgers’ Austin Barnes (2.124), the Rays’ Mallex Smith (2.125), the Nationals’ Justin Miller (2.128), the Rangers’ Matt Bush (2.132) and the Reds’ Scott Schebler (2.132).
Conversely, there are a few players who ever so narrowly squeaked into Super Two status under the wire. Chief among them is Nationals shortstop Trea Turner, who exemplifies the benefit of reaching Super Two status. Had Turner accrued even two fewer days of big league service than the 2.135 years he presently has, he’d have been in line for a six-figure salary not far north of the Major League minimum. Instead, he’s projected by Swartz to earn nearly 10 times that amount — a salary of $5.3MM. He’ll get a raise based on that starting point in 2020 and continue earning raises through the 2022 season, after which he’ll be a free agent.
Beyond Turner, Tigers left-hander Matthew Boyd just barely surpassed the cutoff at 2.136 and is projected at an even $3MM. Cubs righty Carl Edwards Jr. and Braves lefty Jacob Lindgren each landed at 2.134 on the dot, making both arbitration-eligible this winter as well. Edwards is projected to earn $1.4MM, while Lindgren projects at $600K due to the fact that he missed the 2018 season recovering from surgery and did not throw a pitch.
Twins Name Rocco Baldelli Manager
9:40am: The Twins issued a press release formally announcing Baldelli as their new manager.
7:08am: The Twins are set to hire Rays field coordinator Rocco Baldelli as their new manager, with an announcement expected later today, as FOX 9 Sports in the Twin Cities reported late last night (Twitter link). La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune first indicated that Baldelli, 37, had separated himself from the pack in the Twins’ search for a replacement for recently dismissed manager Paul Molitor.
Baldelli had previously been in consideration for several managerial vacancies, with both the Blue Jays and Rangers reported to have him among their top candidates. Incumbent Twins bench coach Derek Shelton was also said to be a finalist, and Neal notes that Cubs bench coach Brandon Hyde was the team’s other top choice. It seems quite possible that Shelton, who served on the Rays’ coaching staff with Baldelli until being hired by the Twins last offseason, could remain on hand as the bench coach, given his familiarity with Baldelli.
While he’s never managed at any level previously, Baldelli spent three seasons as the Rays’ first base coach (2015-17) and was also in charge of the team’s outfield instruction in that time. The organization created the new role of Major League field coordinator for Baldelli in 2018 — a role in which he assisted manager Kevin Cash and bench coach Charlie Montoyo with a heavy focus on player development at the MLB level.
Of course, Baldelli is better known for his career as a big league outfielder. Injuries ruined what looked to be an exceptionally promising career for the former No. 6 overall pick (Rays, 2000), who debuted in the Majors as a 21-year-old back in 2003. Baldelli hit a combined .285/.326/.425 with 27 homers and 44 steals through his first 292 big league games, flashing the potential to emerge as a true five-tool asset for a still-young Rays franchise. He suffered an ACL tear in the 2004-05 offseason, however, and also required Tommy John surgery on his right elbow before he was able to make it back to the field.
Those injuries cost Baldelli the entirety of the 2005 season, but he returned looking none the worse for the wear in 2006 when he batted .302/.339/.533 in 92 games. But Baldelli’s career took a mysterious downturn the following season, and doctors initially diagnosed him with a rare mitochondrial deficiency and, eventually, a condition called channelopathy. In essence, his body was not metabolically capable of producing the energy necessary for his muscles to recover from the rigors of playing baseball at a professional level. Although he managed a few brief returns to the field, Baldelli made just 429 career plate appearances following that brilliant 2007 return effort. He played his final game in the Majors at just 29 years of age.
Baldelli will come to the Twins from one of the most progressive organizations in baseball. While manager Paul Molitor was more than open to data and modern baseball strategies — evidenced by the Twins’ aggressive shifting in his tenure and usage of “the opener” in 2018 — Baldelli has spent the past seven years immersed in an analytic-based culture with the Rays. At 37 and only eight years removed from serving as a player, he’ll likely be touted as a candidate more capable of connecting with younger players while also possessing a more natural comfort level with the data-driven decisions that increasingly permeate today’s game.
It’s a radical shift for a Twins organization that has previously opted to hire from within the organization. Minnesota has long been among the most loyal organizations in baseball, perhaps to a fault at times, as evidenced by the fact that Baldelli will incredibly be just the fourth Twins manager in the past three decades. Tom Kelly was hired by Minnesota in 1986 and held that role until being succeeded by one of his coaches, Ron Gardenhire, in 2001. Gardenhire, in turn, held onto the Twins’ managerial post until 2014 and was replaced by Molitor, who’d served on his own coaching staff.
The Pohlad family, who owns the Twins, has a reputation for maintaining the status quo, but Jim Pohlad has shown more of a willingness to shuffle the deck following the passing of his father, Carl, in 2009. Pohlad dismissed both Gardenhire and longtime GM Terry Ryan amid a prolonged run at the bottom of the AL Central earlier this decade and has since hired chief baseball officer Derek Falvey away from the Indians and general manager Thad Levine away from the Rangers in an effort to overhaul and modernize what was perceived as one of the game’s most “old school” organizations. Hiring the 37-year-old Baldelli is the next step in that effort.
Coaching changes figure to follow, and there’s significant work for Falvey and Levine to do on the roster following a disappointing 2018 season. But Falvey and Levine look to have settled on the voice they hope can lead the organization back to prominence in a weak American League Central division that features multiple rebuilding clubs.
Diamondbacks Claim Artie Lewicki From Tigers
The Diamondbacks have claimed right-hander Artie Lewicki off waivers from the Tigers, per the MLB.com Transactions page (hat tip: MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery, on Twitter). Lewicki underwent Tommy John surgery back in late August.
The 26-year-old Lewicki (27 in April) has generally turned in quality results in the upper minors but has yet to have much success as a big leaguer. In 2018, he turned in 38 1/3 innings of 4.89 ERA ball with 7.0 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9 and a 40.3 percent ground-ball rate with the Tigers. However, he posted a 2.03 ERA with terrific K/BB numbers in Triple-A in 2017 and owns an overall 3.79 ERA with 8.5 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 in 92 2/3 innings at the top minor league level.
Obviously, Lewicki is highly unlikely to pitch for the D-backs in 2019. It’s not even a given that Arizona will carry him on the 40-man roster through the duration of the offseason. The Diamondbacks could try to run the right-hander through waivers themselves and then send him outright to Triple-A, retaining his rights but shedding the requirement to carry him on the 40-man roster. If Lewicki does survive the offseason on Arizona’s 40-man, he could be immediately added to the 60-day disabled list next spring, thus freeing a spot for the remainder of the 2019 season.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to join MLBTR Live Chat With Jason Martinez: October 24, 2018
NL East Notes: Phillies, Roark, Braves
The Phillies are hiring away Astros minor league field coordinator Josh Bonifay as their new farm director, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic (subscription link). The 40-year-old Bonifay is the son of former Pirates general manager Cam Bonifay (1993-2001) and has spent nearly a decade working as a manager or coach in the Astros’ system with the exception of a 2017 stint as the Rangers’ minor league field coordinator. The Phillies parted ways with previous farm director Joe Jordan and several minor league hitting coaches in September, and Bonifay will be tasked with helping to implement a systemic change in the manner in which data is presented to minor league coaching staffs.
Here’s more from the NL East…
- Tanner Roark heads into a contract season with the Nationals in severe need of a rebound campaign, writes Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. As Zuckerman explores, Roark has now posted an ERA north of 4.30 in three of the past four seasons, making what previously looked like outlier campaigns perhaps the new norm. There’s no mention of a possible non-tender or trade in Zuckerman’s piece, though it’s fair to wonder if the Nationals will feel comfortable committing a hefty salary to the 32-year-old Roark given his run of largely pedestrian results; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegs him for a $9.8MM payday in 2019 — his final season of arbitration eligibility. While the Nats have a clear need for starters behind Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, Roark is becoming a relatively pricey option, although to his credit, he’s been a durable rotation cog (30+ starts in three straight seasons).
- Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution looks at the Braves‘ need for some help atop the rotation and the means by which they could acquire said help, though he notes that recent comments by GM Alex Anthopoulos caution against the possibility of an expensive splash. “If there’s a deal that makes sense for us, and it’s a good asset to have, we’ll do it,” said Anthopoulos. “I think the one where you scratch and really push, and you want to call it overpay in years or dollars, you feel like that’s the one final piece. … I don’t think we’re there yet right now.” Atlanta does have plenty of intriguing arms in the upper minors, some of whom have already debuted in the Majors. It’s possible that a few prominent contributors could yet emerge from within or that those pieces could be packaged for some high-end, cost-controlled help. A free-agent splash for someone like Patrick Corbin, however, seems decidedly less likely.
2018-19 Market Snapshot: Starting Pitchers
This is the final installment in our Market Snapshot series. Let’s check in on the array of possibilities for teams looking at rotation improvements.
Teams In Need
There are few teams that won’t at least consider some kind of tweaks to their rotation mix in any given offseason. Some, though, stand out as worthy of particular attention.
A variety of contenders will be looking to get better and perhaps also boost depth. The Astros, Angels, Athletics, Yankees, Nationals, and Braves all have needs. It’s possible the Phillies, Cardinals, and Red Sox could look to improve, even if they could also might largely hold pat. We’ve heard plenty of suggestions that the Padres and Reds are serious about getting new rotation pieces in place.
The Brewers held off on any major improvements last winter but tried to add Yu Darvish, so could again seek arms. Similarly, the creative Rays have some money to spend and surely wouldn’t mind adding productive starters at a good value despite the successes of their non-traditional staff management. Though their anticipated competitiveness may be somewhat in doubt, it’d be unwise to count out clubs such as the Blue Jays, Twins, Pirates, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Rangers. Even clubs like the White Sox and Royals could at least go looking for depth, while serving as wild cards to do more.
Free Agents
Frontline: Clayton Kershaw is still the big name to watch, assuming he opts out as expected. While he won’t take home the kind of whopping deal that once seemed possible, he’ll still draw plenty of attention — if he doesn’t work something out with the Dodgers in advance. Patrick Corbin is coming off of a huge season at relatively youthful age and figures to be of keen interest. The somewhat older and generally more accomplished Dallas Keuchel is also in line for a big contract, but perhaps doesn’t have the earning upside of Corbin. Charlie Morton could ring up a big payday, though his own geographical and competitive preferences may lead him to feature as a nice value.
Mid-rotation: Nathan Eovaldi is arguably the most fascinating pitcher to watch, given his age, loud stuff, and recent success after a run of health issues. Another wild card could be coming from Japan in the form of southpaw Yusei Kikuchi, who may well be posted.
As they did on the trade market, J.A. Happ, Cole Hamels (if his option isn’t exercised), and Gio Gonzalez can offer quality veteran frames. Hyun-Jin Ryu has had major injury issues but has also been excellent when healthy. You could probably debate how to categorize Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill, and Derek Holland, but we’ll keep them here since all have solid cases for multi-year commitments.
CC Sabathia can still get the job done, though he’ll likely go for another single-year pact. It’ll be interesting to see how the market treats Anibal Sanchez after his stunning bounceback year in Atlanta, but it’s hard to ignore his numbers.
Back-end: Wade Miley and Lance Lynn also had interesting seasons. The former had great results that aren’t fully backed by peripherals (at least, if you don’t believe he can sustain his home run suppression), while the latter was dinged for nearly 5 earned per nine on the year but put up some impressive peripherals after being traded to the Yankees.
Other pitchers that had at least reasonably productive 2018 seasons, but otherwise come with some less desirable features, include Brett Anderson, Clay Buchholz, Jeremy Hellickson, Edwin Jackson, Tyson Ross, and James Shields. Bounceback candidates include Drew Pomeranz, Ervin Santana, Jaime Garcia, Marco Estrada, Matt Moore, and Martin Perez, while Garrett Richards seems situated to ink a two-year deal while he finishes his Tommy John rehab.
Depth: Bartolo Colon, Doug Fister, Yovani Gallardo, Miguel Gonzalez, Jason Hammel, Drew Hutchison, Francisco Liriano, Jordan Lyles, Tommy Milone, Hector Santiago, Chris Tillman, Josh Tomlin
Trade Candidates
Top targets: Contenders will see how a new Mets front office feels about Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Zack Wheeler, with a feeding frenzy sure to ensue if they’re made available. It’s perhaps equally unlikely that the Giants will put Madison Bumgarner up for option, but he’d be a fascinating player to see the market value given his outstanding track record and more recent warning signs. It seems reasonable to anticipate that the Diamondbacks will market Zack Greinke, who’s awfully pricey but is now playing on a three-year term and is still very good.
Mid-rotation targets: We’ve already seen clear indication that the Yankees will try to find a taker for Sonny Gray after a rough campaign. Andrew Cashner (Orioles), Ivan Nova (Pirates) and Tanner Roark (Nationals) are other potential trade candidates who have of innings. None of these pitchers is cheap, but all are available on one-year commitments.
The Blue Jays would get plenty of interest if they decided to move on from Marcus Stroman, though it’s not clear that’ll happen. Likewise, Arizona hurlers Robbie Ray and Zach Godley would be of interest elsewhere. Other talented pitchers who have struggled recently include Dylan Bundy of the Orioles and Danny Duffy of the Royals.
Other pitchers could come available if teams like the Red Sox, Braves, and Phillies seek upgrades, though it’s hard to guess at the possibilities at this point.
Contract dumps: Ian Kennedy (Royals), Tyler Chatwood (Cubs), Jordan Zimmermann (Tigers), Alex Cobb (Orioles), Jeff Samardzija (Giants), Homer Bailey (Reds)
Stearns On Brewers’ Offseason, Future Outlook
After a deflating coda to one of the most successful seasons in franchise history, Brewers GM David Stearns held court with the media yesterday to discuss the team’s position heading into the 2019 season. Though obviously disheartened with the club’s Game Seven performance at home last Saturday, the third-year boss sees little reason for pessimism in the near future.
“From an organizational perspective, I’m incredibly proud of how our organization presented itself throughout the season and particularly on a national stage in October,” Stearns said. “Another rewarding aspect is we genuinely believe we are set up to succeed going forward. We return the vast majority of the core of this team. We return that core for multiple years going forward.”
Indeed, the Brewers boast just three players – lefties Wade Miley and Gio Gonzalez, along with 37-year-old Curtis Granderson – who stand to hit free agency this offseason. With a glut of emerging rotation candidates, including Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, and Corbin Burnes, and regulars with lengthy track records entrenched at multiple positions, the 2019 Brewers figure to look strikingly similar to the current version.
“From a specific standpoint, a positional standpoint at the major-league level, we have the vast majority of our team returning,” said Stearns. “So, I don’t know that I would pinpoint a particular area or two that we see that absolutely must be addressed. But there are going to be opportunities to improve our team in the off-season, and we’re going to work hard to take advantage of those opportunities.”
Milwaukee will face difficult decisions with Joakim Soria and Mike Moustakas, over whom the club holds contract options for the upcoming season, and Jonathan Schoop, whose $10.1MM projected arbitration salary (per MLBTR’s Matt Swartz) is hardly congruent with his recent output. The Brewers hold a $10MM option over the 34-year-old Soria, who stands as one of the game’s few relievers able to sustain success for more than a decade – the two-time All-Star enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2018, posting his highest strikeout rate (11.13 K/9) in nine years and again limiting walks and homers at an elite rate. His 92.4 MPH average fastball sits in perfect harmony with his marks in the category over the last few years and again ranked as one of the league’s most effective, per FanGraphs’ pitch value ratings. He’s surely worth the figure, but might be a luxury item for the mid-market club already possessing of an elite back-end bullpen. Moustakas, 30, has a mutual option with the Crew for $15MM in ’19 and seems most likely to be cut loose – his presence, after all, would mean an unorthodox return to second base for the 6’4, 230 lb Travis Shaw, likely rendering Schoop – for whom the Brewers gave up a package that included Jonathan Villar, who easily outperformed Schoop last season, and highly regarded hurler Luis Ortiz – a platoon bat at best, if retained.
The only clear area of upgrade may be shortstop, where former top prospect Orlando Arcia sputtered to a dreadful 54 wRC+ and .235 xWOBA this season. Arcia’s defense, long seen as sufficient to overcome a hole-ridden swing, has received mostly ambivalent reviews in his three-year career thus far, with UZR (-5.3 total) being a bit more skeptical than DRS (+8). The Crew could turn to Schoop, though his mostly average marks at the keystone wouldn’t seem to portend well at a more demanding position, or pursue a trade, though the options, much like the free agent market at the position, are far from promising. Catcher could be another option, though Stephen Vogt hopes to be ready by Spring Training in his recovery from a shoulder tear. For bait, the club could look to deal from its a long-standing surplus in the outfield, where even former middle-of-the-order stalwarts Domingo Santana and Eric Thames struggled to find at-bats down the stretch.
In all, the Brewers project to have a ~$25MM payroll bump (to an estimated $115MM, per Roster Resource and MLBTR’s Jason Martinez) before the option decisions, so the team doesn’t figure to be major players in free agency, though Stearns certainly didn’t rule it out: “I certainly imagine that we are going to show up in spring training with a slightly different-looking roster than the one we have right now, perhaps in ways that we don’t envision.”
Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.
The Angels will focus on pitching this winter, as they look to get back into contention under the leadership of new manager Brad Ausmus.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Justin Upton, LF: $90MM through 2022
- Albert Pujols, 1B/DH: $87MM through 2021
- Mike Trout, CF: $66.5MM through 2020
- Andrelton Simmons, SS: $28MM through 2020
- Zack Cozart, IF: $25.333MM through 2020
- Kole Calhoun, RF: $11.5MM through 2019 (includes $1MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2020)
Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Matt Shoemaker – $4.3MM
- Tyler Skaggs – $3.6MM
- Blake Parker – $3.1MM
- Andrew Heaney – $2.8MM
- JC Ramirez – $1.9MM
- Jose Alvarez – $1.7MM
- Cam Bedrosian – $1.7MM
- Nick Tropeano – $1.6MM
- Hansel Robles – $1.4MM
- Odrisamer Despaigne – $1.3MM
- Jefry Marte – $1.1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Despaigne, Marte, Ramirez
Free Agents
[Los Angeles Angels Depth Chart | Los Angeles Angels Payroll Information]
Mike Scioscia’s 19-year run as the Angels’ manager officially ended after the team’s last game, leaving the team with an immediate bit of business to handle. Speculation initially focused on Ausmus and Triple-A manager Eric Chavez, though the Halos reportedly considered up to 10 names for the job, including such popular managerial candidates as Brandon Hyde, Joe Espada, Rocco Baldelli, and Omar Vizquel.
In the end, the team stayed in-house by hiring Ausmus, giving the 49-year-old his second crack at running a Major League team. Ausmus posted a 314-332 record over four years as the Tigers’ manager from 2014-17, winning the AL Central in his first year in Detroit but ending his tenure on the sour note of a 64-98 season that prompted the Tigers to enter into a rebuild. Ausmus received some mixed reviews during his first managerial stint, though it didn’t stop him from being considered for several other openings — he interviewed with the Reds this month and with the Red Sox last season, and also received interest from the Mets and Phillies for their managerial vacancies in 2017.
Ironically, Ausmus now finds himself in a similar situation to the one he faced upon his initial hire with the Tigers. He’ll again be taking over a team with several veteran stars on large contracts, and an expectation to win immediately. The catch is, Ausmus inherited a perennial contender in Detroit, whereas the Halos have just one postseason appearance in the last nine years and haven’t even cracked the .500 mark since 2015.
This being said, Los Angeles is facing quite a bit of urgency to get back into contention in a very tough AL West. Only two seasons remain on Mike Trout‘s contract, and while the club is expected to discuss an extension with the superstar outfielder, one would think Trout would need to be firmly convinced that the Angels are on an upward trajectory before he even considers another deal with the team. Trout has repeatedly spoken of his desire to win, after all, and he has only three postseason games (and zero wins) to show for his time in L.A. despite posting numbers that have already generated “best player ever” buzz.
A Trout extension would be by far the biggest achievement for the Angels this offseason, though looking at things from Trout’s perspective, it would probably be more logical for him to see how the 2019 season plays out before deciding about his long-term future. He’d have more of a chance to evaluate Ausmus, see how the team’s forthcoming offseason moves play out, and perhaps simply to see if the Angels already have a roster that is capable of winning if it can just stay healthy. Of course, it’s also possible that Trout will simply prefer to test the open market and at least explore a move back to his native east coast after the 2020 season.
Another potential factor in Trout’s decision, and also a matter of much broader import to the franchise, is the rather surprising recent news about the Angels opting out of their lease at Angel Stadium. We know the Halos still be in Anaheim in 2019, though it remains to be seen if the opt-out could lead to stadium renovations, an entirely new ballpark, or perhaps even a move to a new city, whether it be elsewhere in the greater Los Angeles area or maybe beyond. This situation will certainly bear watching in the coming months, and could potentially end up being one of the offseason’s bigger subplots.
Turning back to the roster, Trout is coming off yet another superlative season, hitting .312/.460/.628 with 39 homers over 608 PA and contributing 9.8 fWAR to the Angels’ cumulative 24.4 fWAR for position players. Of the club’s returning players, Andrelton Simmons (5.5 fWAR), Justin Upton (3.1 fWAR), Shohei Ohtani (2.8 fWAR only as a DH), and rookie David Fletcher (1.9 fWAR) combined with Trout for 23.1 fWAR, giving you some idea of how top-heavy the production was within the Angels’ lineup. The team didn’t receive much from the catcher position (Martin Maldonado was traded to the Astros in July), and Kole Calhoun, Zack Cozart, and Albert Pujols were all replacement-level or worse in 2018.
There likely won’t be much change to the position player core, as the outfield will again comprise of Upton, Trout, and Calhoun, with the Halos hoping that Calhoun can build on a much-improved second half. Simmons will again be the infield’s cornerstone at shortstop, while Fletcher and Cozart will handle second and third base, though it isn’t yet clear who will handle either position. Fletcher’s emergence was a nice positive, and it gives the team flexibility in deciding the best spot for Cozart over the last two years of his contract. Cozart’s first year in Anaheim came to premature end in June due to shoulder surgery, and the veteran infielder is hoping for better health to rebound from this lost season.
After undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this month, Ohtani almost certainly won’t pitch for the Angels in 2019, though he will still be able to contribute at a designated hitter for the bulk of the season. Depending on his rehab, Ohtani may not necessarily be ready for Opening Day, and the team might choose to not play Ohtani every day when he does return from the DL for the sake of his long-term conditioning. At this point, the plans have yet to take shape.
Even if Ohtani doesn’t receive many more than the 367 plate appearances he received in 2018, however, he still projects to be a huge part of the L.A. lineup. Among players with at least 350 PA last season, Ohtani’s 152 wRC+ ranked eighth in all of baseball. That was despite some rather drastic splits (1.043 OPS against right-handed pitching, .654 OPS against left-handed pitching) and, of course, the wholly unique factor that Ohtani spent half his time as a pitcher.
The Angels are likely to give Albert Pujols some DH time when facing a left-handed starter, as the veteran slugger can’t be an everyday option at first base given his history of injuries (including knee and elbow procedures this season). After his second consecutive negative-fWAR season, there’s little evidence to suggest that Pujols should still get any sort of regular action, and a case could be made that the Angels would be better off eating Pujols’ remaining $87MM in salary rather than continue to use a roster spot on such a limited player.
Until we get hints that the Angels are considering a release, however, Pujols will continue to be penciled in for a timeshare at first base and DH. Owner Arte Moreno recently stated that the club’s offseason to-do list includes “a left-handed bat with some power to play first base,” though such a player would be used “just to fill in.” Free agents like Lucas Duda, Matt Adams, Adam Lind, Pedro Alvarez, or Logan Morrison could fit this description if Los Angeles truly is looking for just part-time help. On the trade front, a slightly more versatile first baseman like Eric Thames could help at first and also provide corner outfield depth. In a recent outline of Justin Smoak‘s trade market, I cited the Angels as a longshot choice due to Pujols’ presence, though the switch-hitter is an affordable short-term option ($8MM in 2019) who has crushed righty pitching over the last two seasons. Adding a player limited to first base, of course, would make for quite an awkward roster arrangement. Optimally, the lefty bat would come from a player who can also line up elsewhere in the infield. A player such as Asdrubal Cabrera could theoretically make some sense, though it’s unclear how much the club can spend on this need.
If the infield mix could use a boost, it’s equally true that the club will be interested in finding a complimentary piece to put alongside Calhoun. That role fell flat in 2018, as Young struggled with injuries and wasn’t effective. Presumably, the club will pick up a different right-handed-hitting outfielder for the season to come. Among free agents, players such as Cameron Maybin, Carlos Gomez, and Matt Szczur could receive consideration. There’ll surely also be plenty of possibilities on the trade market.
Looking elsewhere at the bench, the Angels will be open for business in looking for additional depth, likely in the form of veterans on minor league contracts. After all, there are some other worthwhile internal names to consider. Jose Miguel Fernandez, Michael Hermosillo, Taylor Ward, and Luis Rengifo are some of the young in-house options, and MLB.com’s Maria Guardado recently opined that the latter two players could potentially challenge Fletcher for a starting gig. Top prospects Jo Adell and Jahmai Jones both reached Double-A in 2018 and could factor into the big league roster later in the season.
The catcher position looks like the Angels’ clearest opportunity for an offensive upgrade. Jose Briceno and Francisco Arcia handled the bulk of the work after Maldonado was traded, and the likeliest course of action would be that the two rookies compete in Spring Training for the backup job or potentially a platoon role, depending on who Los Angeles brings into the mix. There are quite a few known veteran options available in free agency (Kurt Suzuki, Jonathan Lucroy, Brian McCann, Matt Wieters, or Maldonado himself) who could fit into a timeshare if the Angels still intend to see what they have in Bricano or Arcia.
The team is no stranger to a big free agent splash, however, so Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos figure to land on the Halos’ radar screen. Of the two, Grandal is younger, a better pitch framer, and has a less troublesome injury history, though he is also going to require a bigger contract (and could cost a draft pick, if the Dodgers extend a qualifying offer and Grandal rejects it). The Angels will probably at least check in with the Marlins about J.T. Realmuto, though L.A. will be hesitant to part with the prospects necessary to land the All-Star catcher.
An improving farm system does give the Halos some notable trade chips to work with, though creating a sustainable future will require discipline. A high-profile trade, then, may not be terribly likely. It’s fair to wonder, though, whether the Angels have the budget space for at least one big new salary. The team’s Opening Day payrolls have topped the $166MM mark in each of the last two seasons, and Moreno has shown a clear willingness to spend in his time owning the team, with the caveat that the team has always remained under the luxury tax threshold. The Angels have roughly $146MM on the books for 2019, factoring in the $4.3MM saved in the form of the likely non-tender candidates. Adding one major salary would likely mean increasing the spending line. With a current CBT threshold of $206MM, perhaps that’s a real possibility.
The bulk of the team’s spending this winter, however, is very likely to be directed towards pitching. Eppler has said that the Angels will be looking at both starters and relievers as they look to augment a unit that has been crushed by injuries in recent seasons. In 2018 alone, the Halos saw Ohtani, Garrett Richards, Keynan Middleton, Blake Wood, John Lamb, and J.C. Ramirez all undergo Tommy John surgeries, while Nick Tropeano battled shoulder problems all year and Jake Jewell was sidelined after fracturing his right fibula.
Andrew Heaney‘s first full season back from a past Tommy John surgery saw the southpaw toss 180 innings, which was one bright spot for the rotation. Heaney and Tyler Skaggs are the two pitchers who already have a claim to starting jobs, while the group of Jaime Barria, Matt Shoemaker, and Felix Pena will compete for at least one of the remaining spots in the starting five. Tropeano, Parker Bridwell, and Alex Meyer will be in the mix at least as depth options, and prospects Griffin Canning and Jose Suarez aren’t too far away. Ramirez could also factor in as late-season depth if he isn’t non-tendered, and while Richards isn’t expected to pitch in 2019, the Angels could try to re-sign him on a relatively cheap two-year deal with the bulk of the money coming when he’s healthy in 2020.
There is plenty of room here for a proper ace, an innings-eating workhorse, or both as the Angels do their offseason shopping. Expect L.A. to be active in trade talks for any available arms, while Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel are the two top names currently leading the free agent pitching market. Gio Gonzalez and J.A. Happ are more durable, less-expensive options, with Happ delivering better recent results for the Yankees and Blue Jays.
The most earth-shaking move, particularly within the Los Angeles baseball scene, would be if the Angels could convince Clayton Kershaw to leave Chavez Ravine for Anaheim. Kershaw can opt out of the remaining two years on his Dodgers contract after the season, and would instantly become the biggest target in the pitching market if he did enter free agency. It still isn’t clear if Kershaw will exercise his opt-out clause, though it be logical for him to at least explore his options, even if he does ultimately want to remain with the Dodgers.
The Angels will certainly be in touch with Kershaw if he does test the market, though they surely won’t be a favorite to land him. They could also consider another Dodgers starter in Hyun-Jin Ryu, though Ryu comes with another checkered injury history. The Dodgers have not shied away from loading up on pitchers with questionable health histories, so that could be a strategy the Halos attempt to emulate. There are several other hurlers on the market who’d come with quite some risk. Most intriguing, perhaps, is Yusei Kikuchi, a top Japanese hurler who hails from the same high school as Ohtani.
The Halos bullpen posted middle-of-the-pack numbers last season, though they will boast a host of young arms even with Middleton sidelined. Blake Parker or Ty Buttrey are the top internal choices for the closer’s job, and there are lot of experienced ninth-inning names available in free agency ranging from rebound candidates (i.e. Kelvin Herrera, Greg Holland) to the top of the market (i.e. Craig Kimbrel, David Robertson, Jeurys Familia). With all of the injuries and durability issues within the Angels’ pitching staff, there’s also room for the club to explore using some of their recovering arms as swingmen or extended long relievers, perhaps with an “opener” in the first inning to take a page from the Rays’ book.
Even a moderate amount of pitching stability could’ve helped the Angels at least vie for a postseason berth in each of the last two seasons, as the team is coming off consecutive 80-82 records. With better health and another solid arm or two, it isn’t a stretch to imagine the Angels getting back into contention, considering that world-class building blocks like Trout, Simmons, Upton, and (even as only a hitter) Ohtani are already in place.
Orioles Face Uncertainty On International Market
Most international prospects sign on, or soon after, July 2 — the beginning of the yearly international spending period. Those teams with money still to spend this time of year are left with a more limited pool of talent from which to draw, though a trio of interesting prospects emerged last month. The Miami Marlins made a splash by locking up top Cuban prospect Victor Victor Mesa and his younger brother Victor Mesa Jr. Earlier today, the Tampa Bay Rays reportedly committed $2.6MM to sign Cuban right-hander Sandy Gaston.
Teams have until June 15th to spend their remaining international bonus pool money. But with that trio joining a host of other well-regarded youngsters with MLB organizations, the cupboard is increasingly bare.
The situation that remains is quite an interesting one for the Baltimore Orioles, who have far and away the most spending capacity remaining under the current international rules. The O’s can spend around $6.5MM on prospects, having only inked a pair of international youngsters to this point. There are still plenty of players available, to be sure, but the reputed top prospects are off the board. And it’s fair to wonder why none of them ended up in Baltimore.
Granted, we don’t quite know Baltimore’s strategy for wooing these top prospects — or even if they had one, given the organization’s recent shift to begin spending internationally after years of foregoing the market. We know they sent representatives to the showcase for the three Cuban stars earlier this month, but MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli observes that without a general manager or international scouting director currently in place, the Orioles lagged behind teams like the Rays and Marlins in developing relationships on the international front. Presumably, other organizations were also able to highlight other player-friendly features of their systems that the O’s simply do not currently have. No doubt, the Florida clubs also had something of a geographic advantage as well given the notable Cuban-American communities in that portion of the country.
It’s a tad ironic to say to Baltimore, a team long mired behind their big-spending rivals in Boston and New York, that money won’t buy the top players in the market. But the fact remains that, in this case, the O’s had the ability to outspend just about anyone on the market, only to find that said financial firepower just wasn’t enough.
The Baltimore Sun’s Jon Meoli points out that, in and of itself, losing out to a team with deep Cuban roots who spent the last month accumulating enough pool money to compete with Baltimore’s league-leading sum doesn’t even rank on the scale of the organization’s recent disappointments. Still, the Orioles’ longstanding failures and disinterest in developing Latin American players suggests a deleterious operating procedure that’s becoming an unfortunate trademark of the organization.
Conversely, it’s not as if the more than $6MM the Orioles have in international pool money is free money. As The Athletic’s Dan Connolly rightly notes, it’s not outside funding; it’s merely a spending cap as opposed to actual money. What they really lost was an opportunity to exploit a market advantage. It’s no accident that MLB teams routinely empty their spending allocation. Indeed, it used to be common for clubs to blow past their limits for a given season, incurring massive overage penalties and future signing restrictions. (That approach is no longer permitted under the hard-cap system of the current rules regime.)
What’s most confounding about this saga is that Baltimore’s pool of money wasn’t available to them by happenstance: they traded for much of it. The Orioles first shipped reliever Brad Brach to Atlanta for pool money ($250k), then dealt Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day to Atlanta in a separate deal — this time for an uninspiring prospect bundle that was theoretically headlined by the whopping sum of pool money ($2.5MM) they also received. Shedding O’Day’s hefty $10MM commitment was unquestionably also a key goal, but that is a rather thin justification for parting with a controllable, youthful pitcher of Gausman’s talent level.
Ghiroli, Meoli and Connolly all touched on a similar sentiment: the optics here are bad for Baltimore, at a minimum. Casting final judgment on the Orioles’ use of their international pool money, at this stage, is premature. The international signing period is not yet done, and the O’s may, theoretically, still have a plan. But in a year when they lost 115 games, bid adieu to their franchise player, and oversaw massive organizational upheaval, the Orioles sure needed a win, and the international market seemed like the place to get it. Now, that avenue carries far less certainty.
Taiwanese slugger Wang Po-Jung will reportedly be posted for MLB teams, though despite his otherworldly production in the Chinese Professional Baseball League, there’s not much reason to think he’s the sort of player that would headline an international class. Perhaps there will be a bonus-restricted amateur unexpectedly posted from Nippon Professional Baseball or the Korea Baseball Organization who gives the Orioles a mulligan to take advantage of their financial firepower, but right now it seems hard to envision them capitalizing on their considerable bonus pool.
NL Notes: Schoop, Escobar, Diamondbacks, Kang, Pirates
The Brewers will have a tough call to make on Jonathan Schoop following the infielder’s struggles in 2018, and general manager David Stearns opted not to tip his hand when it comes to tendering a contract to the arbitration-eligible slugger (link via MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy). “That’s a discussion that we’re going to have to continue to have here over the next couple of weeks to a month,” said Stearns. “…He has had really impressive stretches throughout his career, and unfortunately for both him and us, we didn’t see one of those stretches when he was a Brewer. We’ll sit down to see if we can determine why, and then we’ll go forward.” Schoop, 27, was one of the game’s most productive infielders in 2017 but turned in an awful .233/.266/.416 slash through 501 plate appearances this year — including a brutal .202/.246/.331 slash with the Brewers. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn a $10.1MM salary in 2019.
Here’s more from the NL…
- The Diamondbacks‘ surprising new deal with versatile infielder Eduardo Escobar opens a plethora of options for the organization this offseason, The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan writes in an expansive look at the team’s options (subscription link). The move first and foremost indicates that the Snakes aren’t gearing up for a complete rebuild, but it does allow the team the freedom to shift some pieces around. Jake Lamb could head to first base in the event of an oft-speculated Paul Goldschmidt deal, Buchanan notes, or Escobar could find regular work at shortstop should Nick Ahmed be moved. If the team doesn’t subtract any pieces, he could even play second base in place of Ketel Marte, whom Buchanan reports has been discussed internally as a center field option. General manager Mike Hazen, who discusses the move at length in the column, made clear that Escobar will be in line for regular at-bats next season, even if the exact plan will obviously dependent on the remainder of the offseason. The 29-year-old Escobar hit .268/.327/.444 with the D-backs following a trade from the Twins and slashed .272/.334/.489 with 23 homers, 48 doubles and three triples on the season as a whole.
- While the Pirates haven’t given a firm indication as to whether they’ll exercise Jung Ho Kang‘s $5.5MM club option for the 2019 season, MLB.com’s Adam Berry takes a look at the situation and suggests it’s quite possible that Kang will return for another season. General manager Neal Huntington recently suggested that the team and Kang may need to find a middle ground rather than bringing him back at the full $5.5MM value of the option — implying that the Pirates could pay a $250K buyout and bring Kang back at a lower guaranteed base salary. Berry also notes that it’s unlikely the team will move on from Colin Moran despite mixed results in his first season with Pittsburgh, citing a strong finish and defensive improvements over the course of the season (in addition to the fact that the Buccos acquired him as a key piece in the Gerrit Cole trade not even a year ago).