Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Statcast Standouts: Pending FA Hitters

By | at

Major League Baseball’s postseason has shrunk to four teams, meaning we’re only a few weeks away from the opening of free agency. As always, some pending free-agent hitters are coming off excellent seasons in terms of bottom-line results, while others posted uninspiring production in platform years. Thanks to the introduction of Statcast (via Baseball Savant) a few years ago, we now have a better idea of which players deserved their results from this past regular season. With that in mind, using two Statcast metrics – expected weighted on-base average and average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls – we’ll take a look at the top pending FA hitters at each position. These numbers don’t factor in a batter’s age, handedness, his defense or his expected asking price, of course, but they give a better idea of what kind of season he’s coming off as a hitter as he heads to free agency.

(Note: We’re going with exit velo on liners/fly balls as a way to take grounders out of the equation, as they’re simply less valuable than air balls.)

Catchers:

Expected weighted on-base average

  1. Yasmani Grandal – .345 (real wOBA: .352)
  2. Wilson Ramos – .342 (.362)
  3. Kurt Suzuki – .331 (.335)
  4. A.J. Ellis – .327 (.325)
  5. Matt Wieters – .313 (.308); Nick Hundley – .313 (.304)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

  1. Wilson Ramos – 95.4 mph
  2. Yasmani Grandal – 94.5
  3. A.J. Ellis – 93.5
  4. Matt Wieters, Nick Hundley and Jeff Mathis – 92.2
  5. Devin Mesoraco – 92.1

No surprise that Ramos and Grandal are the main Statcast standouts at this position. They’ll be the two top regulars on the market, after all, with Grandal likely to rake in the bigger contract. It helps in Grandal’s case that, in addition to his offensive prowess, he’s regarded as a quality defender – gaffes in Game 1 of the NLCS aside.

First basemen:

Expected weighted on-base average

  1. Steve Pearce – .398 (real wOBA: .382)
  2. David Freese – .358 (.357)
  3. Joe Mauer – .355 (.319)
  4. Danny Valencia – .349 (.310)
  5. Logan Morrison – .339 (.284)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

  1. Joe Mauer – 94.9 mph
  2. Steve Pearce – 94.7
  3. Matt Adams – 94.6
  4. Danny Valencia and Logan Morrison – 94.5
  5. Hanley Ramirez – 94.2

If a team’s looking for a full-time starting first baseman in free agency, it’s probably not going to find one. But at least a couple of the above hitters – namely, Pearce and Freese (if the Dodgers decline his $6MM club option, which is far from certain) – could once again serve as eminently useful part-timers in 2019. Mauer might have had a much better year than his league-average production indicates, meanwhile, though the 35-year-old Twins icon may call it a career in lieu of pursuing another contract.

Second basemen:

Expected weighted on-base average

  1. Daniel Murphy – .345 (real wOBA: .338)
  2. Daniel Descalso – .333 (.341); Neil Walker – .333 (.292)
  3. Jed Lowrie – .332 (.348)
  4. DJ LeMahieu – .325 (.323)
  5. Marwin Gonzalez – .320 (.318)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

  1. Asdrubal Cabrera – 93.5 mph
  2. Marwin Gonzalez – 93.4
  3. DJ LeMahieu – 93.2
  4. Neil Walker – 92.4
  5. Daniel Descalso 92.3

The second base market is loaded with familiar names, but the majority of those players are fresh off underwhelming offensive seasons in terms of actual production. The above Statcast numbers aren’t exactly excellent, either, but Walker looks like a player who could serve as an interesting buy-low candidate over the winter. Walker went without a contract until last March, putting him behind the 8-ball immediately and helping lead to a brutal start with the Yankees. He settled in at the plate as the year went on, however, and ended up seeing quite a bit of time at four positions (second, first, third and right field).

Shortstops:

Expected weighted on-base average

  1. Manny Machado – .371 (real wOBA: .377)
  2. Asdrubal Cabrera – .322 (.332)
  3. Marwin Gonzalez – .320 (.318)
  4. Eduardo Escobar – .319 (.346)
  5. Jordy Mercer – .314 (.297)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

  1. Manny Machado – 95.1 mph
  2. Marwin Gonzalez – 93.4
  3. Freddy Galvis – 91.8
  4. Eduardo Escobar – 90.8
  5. Jordy Mercer – 90.7

Perhaps you’ve heard of the 26-year-old Machado, who’s weeks from signing one of the richest deals in the history of the game. He packs a wallop at the plate, as Statcast helps illustrate. Other than Machado, Escobar and Gonzalez – who didn’t have a great offensive season but is a switch-hitter capable of playing a few positions –  free agency’s not brimming with appealing shortstop options. Of course, that’s assuming the Rangers’ Elvis Andrus doesn’t opt out of the remaining four years and $58MM on his contract.

Third basemen:

Expected weighted on-base average

  1. Manny Machado – .371 (real wOBA: .377)
  2. David Freese – .358 (.357)
  3. Mike Moustakas – .339 (.329)
  4. Josh Donaldson – .333 (.345)
  5. Adrian Beltre – .329 (.327)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

  1. Josh Donaldson – 96.3 mph
  2. Manny Machado – 95.1
  3. Pablo Sandoval – 94.3
  4. Asdrubal Cabrera – 93.5
  5. Marwin Gonzalez – 93.4

Even during an injury-limited season, one which nearly destroyed his trade value and won’t do him any favors in free agency, Donaldson was a notable threat the plate. The 32-year-old still packs a punch – as does the oft-maligned Sandoval (also 32), apparently.

Outfielders:

Expected weighted on-base average

  1. Bryce Harper – .386 (real wOBA: .376)
  2. Michael Brantley – .362 (.359)
  3. Andrew McCutchen – .355 (.347)
  4. Nick Markakis – .348 (.345)
  5. Curtis Granderson – .341 (.342)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

  1. Bryce Harper – 96.3 mph
  2. Jose Bautista – 95.3
  3. Andrew McCutchen – 94.1
  4. Marwin Gonzalez – 93.4
  5. Matt Joyce – 92.8

The soon-to-be 26-year-old Harper will join Machado during the offseason in signing a historic contract. Unsurprisingly, Harper finished top two among all pending free agents in each of the categories we’re using here. For teams that can’t afford him, there will be some established, offensively capable corner outfielders available, as seen above. No one from that group is an ideal center field option, though, and there won’t be many available in free agency. The obvious exception is the Diamondbacks’ A.J. Pollock, who recorded a .326 xwOBA (compared to a .338 real-life mark) and a 93.7 mph average exit velocity on liners and fly balls in 2018. He also posted six Outs Above Average as a defender, per Statcast, making him the best soon-to-be free-agent outfielder in that metric’s view. By the way, Harper (minus-12) and McCutchen (minus-11) were each in the bottom six among all outfielders in OAA in 2018.

Finally, for teams in the market for a pure designated hitter, we’d be remiss not to mention Nelson Cruz. Despite his age (38), Cruz is still a superb offensive player. He placed seventh in the majors in xwOBA (.394, easily beating out his real mark of .361) and in a 13th-place tie with NL MVP hopeful Christian Yelich in average exit velo on liners/fly balls (97.2 mph).

Quick Hits: Yanks, Bucs, Cole, Andujar, Mets, Stearns, Hillman

By | at

It’s already known that the Yankees pursued a trade for right-hander Gerrit Cole last winter before the Pirates ultimately sent him to the Astros in mid-January. Ken Davidoff of the New York Post sheds more light on the talks between the Yankees and Pirates, reporting that the Bucs wanted both outfielder Clint Frazier and third baseman Miguel Andujar in exchange for Cole. The Yankees were willing to part with Frazier, as was previously reported, but weren’t on board with adding Andujar to the package. Consequently, the Pirates chose the Astros’ four-player offer, one which yielded modest returns in 2018. Cole has enjoyed an ace-caliber season in Houston, meanwhile, and concussion issues prevented Frazier from making a big league impact this year. Whether Cole would have performed similarly had he gone to New York is anyone’s guess, of course, and the Yankees can take solace in knowing they made out well by keeping Andujar. The 23-year-old’s a strong candidate for top rookie honors in the American League after slashing .298/.328/.527 (128 wRC+) with 76 extra-base hits – including 27 home runs and an AL rookie record-tying 47 doubles – en route to 2.7 fWAR.

More from around the game…

  • There’s uncertainty in the Mets’ search for a new head of baseball operations, Mike Puma of the New York Post hears. It’s possible the Mets will tab both a president of baseball ops and a general manager, but club officials have gone back and forth on that lately and are leaning toward hiring only one person, Puma reports. Moreover, the Mets remain unsure whether to tab an old-school or new-school mind for the role, per Puma.
  • The Mets had now-successful Brewers GM David Stearns under their employ as an intern a decade ago, Tim Healey of Newsday notes, pointing out that Stearns is a Manhattan native who grew up rooting for the Amazins. During his short time with the Mets, their baseball department – led by then-GM Omar Minaya – “badly wanted to hire” Stearns on a full-time basis, according to Healey. However, they couldn’t get approval on adding another full-time position from owner Fred Wilpon and COO Jeff Wilpon, Healey relays. Stearns went on to a few other jobs elsewhere before becoming the Brewers’ GM in September 2015. No one knows where Stearns would be now had he risen to a more prominent role with the Mets all those years ago, but it’s an interesting what-if.
  • Trey Hillman announced Saturday that he’ll step down as the manager of SK Wyverns of the Korea Baseball Organization after the season, citing family reasons, the Yonhap News Agency reports. Hillman left his post as the Astros’ bench coach in 2016 to immigrate to South Korea, where he has led the Wyverns to back-to-back playoff berths. The 55-year-old is likely best known for his stint as the manager of the Royals from 2008-10. Kansas City went 152-207 under Hillman, whose reign directly preceded the ongoing Ned Yost era.

Yankees Notes: Corbin, Sabathia, Payroll

By | at

A few notes on the Yankees, whom the archrival Red Sox eliminated from the postseason earlier this week:

  • It’s “expected” that the Yankees will go after left-hander Patrick Corbin in free agency, sources tell Jon Heyman of Fancred. It’s notable but not surprising that the Yankees may pursue Corbin, as they’re in need of quality starters and he’ll be among the best on the open market. Further, the Bombers attempted to acquire Corbin last winter, and the New York state native explained to Bob Nightengale of USA Today in April that the rumors “excited” his Yankees-loving family. Regardless of where Corbin pitches in 2019, he figures to do so after receiving one of the richest contracts awarded during the upcoming offseason. The 29-year-old, a career-long Diamondback to this point, is coming off a personal-best season in which he logged a 3.15 ERA/2.47 FIP with 11.07 K/9 and 2.16 BB/9 over 200 innings.
  • While Corbin may soon end up a Yankee, “it would appear” they’ll say goodbye to fellow pending free-agent starter CC Sabathia, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. Heyman passes along different information, writing that a reunion “hasn’t necessarily been ruled out.” A Yankee since 2009, the potential Hall of Famer would be difficult to replace both on and off the field for the Bombers, with whom he turned in another fine season in 2018. Despite his age (he turned 38 in July), the big lefty posted a 3.65 ERA across 153 innings. ERA estimators such as FIP, xFIP and SIERA haven’t been as bullish on Sabathia’s work in recent years, though he’s so difficult to square up against that it has enabled him to defy serious regression. Sabathia finished fifth among all pitchers in average exit velocity against (84 mph) this past regular season, per Statcast. Because he’s still such an effective starter, Sabathia has made it known he’ll resume his career in 2019. While he did just undergo knee surgery Friday, it doesn’t seem as if it’ll affect Sabathia’s outlook heading into next year.
  • For the first time in 15 years, the Yankees stayed under the luxury-tax threshold this season, David Lennon of Newsday notes. That means if the Yankees exceed the $206MM figure in 2019 (up from $197MM this year), they’ll pay a 20 percent tax for every dollar spent over the mark, as opposed to 50 percent. On paper, that puts them in better position to pursue top free agents such as Corbin, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. But it’s not a slam dunk the Yankees – led by owner Hal Steinbrenner – will spend in excess of $206MM next year, as general manager Brian Cashman told Lennon on Friday: “I don’t want to speak for Hal, but my general feeling from him and for us has been not wanting to line the pockets of others to let them utilize that excess against us. It was mission accomplished in terms of the payroll this year, and taking away advantages that teams have been getting from us because we were exceeding those thresholds.” Cashman added, though, that he believes Steinbrenner’s “a very open-minded person” with respect to spending, perhaps leaving the door open for some big-money moves.

Poll: Will The Yankees Sign Manny Machado?

By | at

This has been the week from hell for the Yankees, whose season ended Tuesday at the hands of the hated Red Sox in the American League Division Series. Boston summarily disposed of the Yankees in four games, further cementing itself as the superior team in 2018 after it won the AL East with ease in the regular season, finishing with a 108-54 record to New York’s 100-62 mark. To make matters worse, the Yankees learned Friday that they’ll play a large portion of 2019 without one of their most valuable players, shortstop Didi Gregorius, who needs Tommy John surgery on his right (throwing) elbow. Only two of the Yankees’ position players posted a higher fWAR this year than Gregorius, who recorded a 4.6 mark in 569 plate appearances to rank eighth among big league shortstops.

Now, with the Red Sox potentially on their way to a fourth World Series title since 2004 and the Yankees having been dealt a brutal blow well before 2019 begins, the question is: How will the Evil Empire strike back? Well, if the Yankees plan to go big-game hunting in free agency – as they’ve done on many occasions – perhaps they’ll respond by signing the Dodgers’ Manny Machado. The four-time All-Star infielder, 26, is set to hit the open market, where he’s sure to become one of the highest-paid players in the history of the sport.

Even with a healthy Gregorius, New York would’ve been a speculated suitor for Machado, whom it chased at this past summer’s trade deadline before the AL East rival Orioles dealt him to the Dodgers. With Gregorius in the fold, Machado likely would have slotted in at third base in 2019, sending AL Rookie of the Year Candidate Miguel Andujar to first base or designated hitter. Andujar’s on the heels of a huge season offensively, but he was a butcher at third, finishing last among major league infielders in both Defensive Runs Saved (minus-25) and Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-16). Despite Andujar’s woeful season in the field, he may well remain at third next year if the Yankees add Machado, considering both Gregorius’ health and Machado’s preference to line up at short.

For the majority of his career, which began in 2012, Machado has played third, where he has been eminently successful. Machado has registered 84 Defensive Runs Saved and a 50.6 UZR at the position, while he has logged minus-10 DRS at short and a minus-6.1 UZR at shortstop, with all of the damage having come this past regular season (minus-12 DRS, minus-6.5 UZR) after he moved back to short. In spite of his defensive shortcomings, Machado served as one of the majors’ preeminent players in 2018, notching the game’s ninth-highest fWAR among position players (6.2) on the strength of his fourth straight 30-home run campaign. He’d give the Yankees’ already strong offense yet another formidable hitter, joining Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez and Andujar, though the right-handed Machado wouldn’t provide the right-heavy lineup variety in terms of handedness.

Speaking of Torres, the Yankees may simply turn short over to him next year as they await Gregorius’ return and entrust the keystone to a far less expensive alternative to Machado. There are plenty of familiar veteran second basemen set to hit free agency in the offseason, including now-Yankee Neil Walker, though no one from the group is anywhere near the caliber of Machado.

For now, Machado and the still-alive Dodgers are focused on winning a championship, but it seems doubtful he’ll return to LA thereafter. The club has an excellent third baseman in Justin Turner and a great shortstop in Corey Seager, who missed most of 2018 on account of TJ surgery, after all. Thus, regardless of how the Dodgers’ season ends, it seems Machado’s destined to put on a new uniform in 2019. Do you expect New York to be the team that awards him one of the richest contracts in the history of baseball in the offseason, or will someone else win the much-anticipated derby?

(poll link for app users)

Will the Yankees sign Manny Machado?

  • No 52% (10,007)
  • Yes 48% (9,181)

Total votes: 19,188

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Muncy, Voit, O’Hearn, Spin Rates, Astros

By | at

In one of the most statistically improbable turnarounds in recent memory, Dodgers 1B/2B/3B/OF Max Muncy, he of the .195/.290/.321 line across 245 plate appearances in parts of two seasons for Oakland, broke out in the biggest of ways for Los Angeles this season, slamming 35 home runs in just 395 AB and posting a .263/.391/.582 mark that stood as one of the National League’s best.  Yankees 1B Luke Voit, a footnote trade deadline acquisition in ’18, posted an even more impressive (albeit in a much smaller sample) 187 wRC+ in 161 PA down the stretch for the Bombers this season.  And Royals 1B Ryan O’Hearn, who’d slumped badly in parts of two seasons at Triple-A Omaha before his promotion this summer, shocked the organization by dropping a .262/.353/.597 mark across 170 PA for Kansas City in the second half.  In a fascinating look at their respective backgrounds, Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper (subscription required) revisits the trio’s unheralded prospect days, when the three seemed to register only mildly on the wide-ranging radar of professional scouts.  All three, it appears, were hampered by the 2011 NCAA-mandated switch from aluminum bats to composite, with Voit in particular banging just 19 career HR across four seasons at Missouri State (a school which, notably, has produced a glut of big leaguers, including Ryan Howard, over the last two decades).  Though none of the three were highly regarded in their respective organizations prior to the breakouts, and sustained production at their 2018 levels seems virtually impossible, it should be noted that a number of players have shown immediate power spikes upon their promotion to MLB of late, and both Muncy (.392) and Voit (.440, best in the league among players with at least 150 PA) rate quite favorably in Statcast’s xWOBA metric.

In other bits of interest from around the league . . .

  • FiveThirtyEight’s Travis Sawchik launches far into the spin-rate galaxy in a delightfully data-heavy piece packed with informative bits.  Though the spin-rate data is still young, and ever-conservative analysts caution against drawing too heavily from its many layers, certain teams appear to be drilling in earnest: Sawchik cites the Astros, Yankees, and Dodgers as teams who’ve seen significant jumps in the four-seam fastball version of the metric since the advent of the data, taking particular care to address the case of Gerrit Cole, whose resurgent season coincided with a jump of over 200 rpms in his four-seamer from 2017.  Still, traditional analytic bastions Oakland and Tampa Bay have each seen a decrease in overall spin-rate on the fastball over the same frame, so perhaps the aforementioned uptick is little more than coincidence.  The article, which also features a good deal of commentary and speculation from outspoken Indians hurler Trevor Bauer, is well worth a full read for all.
  • The Astros, who revamped their organization with a heavy emphasis on raw data and wall-to-wall granularity, also care deeply about the team’s culture, writes Jayson Stark of The Athletic. GM Jeff Luhnow came to Houston from St. Louis, which Stark describes as ’obsessed’ with the culture of the team, and has apparently taken great strides to ensure the Astros “operate as a cohesive unit.” “We spend a lot of time,” Luhnow said. “Clubbies [clubhouse men] talk to clubbies. Trainers talk to trainers. Front offices talk to front offices. Players talk to players. You can always find a player who was with that team last year who is no longer with them, who somebody with the organization knows. Information crosses boundaries very rapidly.”  The piece is rife with further quotes from Luhnow and analysis from Stark, who cites Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann as players who were acquired for more than just their on-field abilities.

AL East Notes: Cron, Dombrowski, Yankees

By | at

The Rays are “likely” to move on from 1B/DH C.J. Cron, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.  Though Cron, 28, smashed 30 homers en route to a career-best (122 wRC+) output at the plate, he’s averaged just 0.8 fWAR per season since debuting in 2014 for the Angels and and posted a meager .300 OBP against right-handed pitching in ’18, well below the benchmark for a quality regular at the position.  The left-hand dominant Rays appear to be in the market for an “impact” right-handed bat, according to Topkin, and have assembled a tantalizing lot of youngsters from which to deal.  It makes little sense, then, to keep Cron, whose $5.2MM projected 2019 salary (per MLBTR’s Matt Swartz) in his penultimate arbitration-eligible season would make him the team’s second-highest paid player in the upcoming campaign: in addition to him being relegated to near full-time bench duty in the event of an upgrade, Cron’s figure would almost surely constrict a perennially tight Tampa budget.  Offensive-minded first basemen with plate discipline issues (Cron’s strikeout rate rose to a career-high 25.9% in ’18, with his walk rate still hovering below 7%) don’t figure to be in high demand on the trade market, so the Rays may be forced to non-tender him before the November 30th deadline.

In other news from around the division . . .

  • Gunslinging Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski, in a chat with the USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, offered some window into his rationale when dealing for left-hander Chris Sale prior to the 2017 season.  “Everybody has to decide what they want to do,’’ Dombrowski said, “but for us, when you have a chance to win, you go for it. Sometimes, it’s painful. You can’t do both. You can’t protect all of your prospects and also trade for good guys. You’re not going to get Chris Sale unless it hurts a little bit. Everybody has to make their own decisions, but for us, it made sense, and he’s been just tremendous for us.” In an age of prospect hoarding, where close-fisted, analytically-inclined GMs are loath to part with top minor leaguers, Dombrowski stands as converse: his decades-long strategy of aggression has led to huge turnarounds in both Miami and Detroit, and, more recently, yielded seven division titles in the last eight seasons.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post opines that the Yankees should sign Manny Machado – who’s rumored to have the club at the top of his wish list – to a shorter-term deal with a higher average annual value.  Machado, who turned 26 in July, is one of the youngest superstars to hit free agency in the game’s history, and almost certain to command a deal that nears (or, perhaps, surpasses) a decade in length.  Sherman, however, thinks the Yanks could sway the SS/3B with a five-year pact that guarantees a record $40MM per season; the club, after all, has been bit by lengthy contracts given to Alex Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and Jacoby Ellsbury in recent seasons, and a short-term deal (perhaps with an opt-out attached) would allow Machado to again hit free agency while he remains in the relative prime of his career.  With shortstop Didi Gregorious set to undergo Tommy John Surgery and perhaps miss at least part of the 2019 season, and third baseman Miguel Andujar posting historically low defensive marks at third base (-25 DRS in 132 games), Machado certainly figures to be a prime target for the Bombers this offseason.

Quick Hits: Yankees, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Orioles

By | at

The Yankees were impressed enough with Aaron Boone’s first season at the helm to bring back his entire staff for 2019, tweets George A. King III of the New York Post. Boone made a number of changes to the staff after the 2017 season, promoting Marcus Thames to hitting coach and installing bench coach Josh Bard, third-base coach Phil Nevin and first-base coach Reggie Willits, among others. The 2018 coaching crew will get a chance to run it back after an impressive 100-win season and a second straight playoff appearance.

Here’s a couple other notes from around the MLB…

  • The Diamondbacks are replacing their natural playing surface with artificial turf in advance of the 2019 season. Arizona’s baseball operations staff conducted in-depth research, finding their new dual-fiber surface provides performance and health benefits previously unavailable. The retractable roof at Chase Field made it increasingly difficult to maintain consistent growing conditions for their natural surface. Arizona will join Tampa Bay and Toronto as the only franchises to utilize an artificial turf, though the Rangers are reportedly considering a similar surface for their new stadium. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that Texas has yet to make a decision on the playing surface for the stadium set to open in 2020, but decision-makers within the organization will be closely monitoring the situation in Arizona.
  • Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun writes that there’s symbolic value to the Orioles’ attempts to woo top Cuban prospect Victor Victor Mesa, even if they can’t close the deal. Considering the Marlins’ recent push to collect international spending pool money and their cultural ties to Cuba, Miami is now widely considered the favorites to sign Victor Victor Mesa, though Mesa’s intentions are as of now unclear.
  • In a separate tweet, Meoli suggests that the Orioles summer trade of starting pitcher Kevin Gausman to the Braves was motivated by financial considerations. Though not initially presented as a primary concern, the trade cleared Gausman and Darren O’Day’s contracts from the Baltimore ledger in 2019 and beyond. Gausman has two more seasons of arbitration eligibility remaining after making $5.6MM in 2018. Darren O’Day has yet to pitch for the Braves, though he’ll likely have a role in their bullpen next season as he’s under contract for $9MM in 2019.

Central Notes: Kluber, Greene, Cubs

By | at

Indians ace Corey Kluber has earned $3.5MM of a possible $4MM in contract escalators, according to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com (via Twitter). All that remains is an all-but-certain top-10 finish in this year’s Cy Young award voting to raise Kluber’s salary in 2019 from $13MM to the full $17MM. His contract options in 2020 and 2021 will increase to $17.5MM and $18MM respectively. Despite a disappointing loss to Justin Verlander and the Astros in the ALDS, Kluber put together another stellar campaign in 2018. He won twenty games for the first time, going 20-7 with a 2.89 ERA in 215 innings. Kluber’s run of dominance began in his age-28 season, and he’s been one of baseball’s true number-one starters in the five years since (2.84 FIP, 152 ERA+ over that time). He more than earned his pay raise, but it does make an already-tight financial situation even tighter for Cleveland this offseason as they try to fill holes in their lineup and rebuild their bullpen around July acquisition Brad Hand.

Some notes from the Senior Circuit’s central division…

  • Encouraging news for Reds fans from Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer, as 2017 number two overall pick Hunter Greene rehabs his elbow at the Reds’ Spring Training complex in Arizona. Greene sprained the ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow – and though injuries to this ligament often result in Tommy John surgery – Greene elected the non-surgical route and is progressing as planned. Before ending his season in July, the 6’4″ right-hander was 3-7 with a 4.48 ERA in 18 starts at Class-A Dayton. Advanced metrics paint a more impressive picture for the 19-year-old flamethrower — 11.72 K/9, 3.29 FIP, 3.13 xFIP. Greene hopes to get back to hitting triple digits when he resumes throwing in December or January.
  • Cubs players seemed unclear in exit interviews about the organization’s hitting philosophy. Theo Epstein, Joe Maddon and whoever replaces Chili Davis as Maddon’s hitting coach will strive for greater harmony in organizational messaging about their offensive strategy moving forward, but the track record isn’t great writes the Athletic’s Patrick Mooney as he reviews Chicago’s hitting coaches since 2013 – a list that will be one name longer by Opening Day 2019. Current Phillies hitting coach John Mallee survived the longest, a three-year stretch that included the 2016 World Series and ended after the 2017 season. Some names Mooney suggests the Cubs could consider include current assistant hitting coach Andy Haines, former assistant hitting coach Eric Hinske (who worked under Mallee for three seasons) and former special assistant in player development Anthony Iapoce, who spent last season as the Rangers’ hitting coach.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

By | at

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

For the first time in franchise history, the Cubs reached the playoffs in four consecutive years.  However, a loss to the Rockies in the Wild Card game left a bitter taste in the Cubs’ mouths and the front office must make significant additions to the offense and bullpen.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Contract Options

Free Agents

[Chicago Cubs Depth Chart; Chicago Cubs Payroll Overview]

“Our offense broke somewhere along the lines,” stated Cubs president Theo Epstein the day after his team was bounced from the playoffs following a five-hour slog against the Rockies.  The Cubs didn’t even expect to be in that Wild Card game, but they lost a tiebreaker game to a surging Brewers club.  Before we attempt to guess at how Epstein might go about fixing the offense, let’s take a look at which players are locked in.

Willson Contreras will continue to handle primary catching duties.  Contreras, 27 in May, had an argument to be considered the best-hitting catcher in baseball over the period stretching from his June 2016 debut until this year’s trade deadline.  Then, from August 2nd onward, he hit .169/.263/.232 with one home run in 160 plate appearances.  He went from regularly serving as the Cubs’ #4 or 5 hitter to hitting seventh or eighth most days.  Contreras’ collapse is one damning data point for now-former Cubs hitting coach Chili Davis.  Getting Contreras back to his established 120 wRC+ level would be a big boost to the 2019 offense.  Contreras caught a career-high 1109 2/3 innings in 2018 and would likely benefit from a quality veteran backup.  After a strong season in which he made 83 starts for the Braves, free agent Kurt Suzuki might not accept a diminished role, but he’s the type of player the Cubs should target.

The team’s other big in-house offensive project is getting Kris Bryant right.  Bryant, 27 in January, had his first real setback as a pro player this year but still managed a 125 wRC+.  That’s disappointing only because he’d set his level at 144 over his first three Major League seasons, winning the NL MVP in 2016.  Bryant injured his left shoulder on a headfirst slide in late May and was never the same since.  He was limited to just 102 games this year.  Fortunately, Epstein does not expect surgery for Bryant, and in fact expects a “monster” 2019 out of him.  Given Bryant’s stature and potential, I wonder if manager Joe Maddon would be better served locking him in at third base, rather than sprinkling in time at the outfield corners as he has done to date.  Healthy, bounceback seasons from Bryant and Contreras are crucial to the Cubs’ 2019 offense.

Anthony Rizzo is the Cubs’ rock at first base and remains among the best hitters in the game at his position.  Ben Zobrist bounced back to show he’s actually not done as a hitter at age 37, and he’s an option for slightly less than full-time duty at some combination of second base and the outfield corners again.  Javier Baez catapulted himself into the NL MVP discussion with a five-win age-25 season.  Baez fits well at any infield position.  He maxed out his offensive abilities in 2018 by mashing 83 extra-base hits, making up for his perennially low walk rate.  The Cubs are also locked into near-regular playing time for Jason Heyward, because of his strong outfield defense as well as the large amount of money left on his contract.  Heyward continued to improve as a hitter in his third year as a Cub, but that still resulted in a low-power league average batting line.  The positional flexibility of Heyward, Baez, Zobrist, and others will allow the Cubs to explore both of the major prizes of the 2018-19 free agent market.

Those prizes, of course, are superstars Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.  Both free agents project to top the current largest contract in baseball history, Giancarlo Stanton’s $325MM deal.  MLBTR expects each player to reach $400MM, with an average annual value in the range of $30MM.  Can the Cubs afford to add the largest contract in baseball history to their ledger?  With a new TV deal on the horizon after 2019, the answer appears to be yes.  Given arbitration raises, the Cubs will come in around last year’s Opening Day payroll before any new players are added, so I do expect the club to jump past $200MM for the first time.  The Cubs successfully reset with a payroll under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2018, reducing the tax penalty for ’19 if they exceed the new $206MM threshold.  Last March, I debated the true necessity of teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, and Yankees to reset, but all three have done it and enter the 2018-19 offseason ready to spend.

Epstein has gone big game hunting many times for both the Cubs and Red Sox, and figures to be firmly in the mix for Harper or Machado.  Which player is the better fit?  My vote is for Harper, who has a higher offensive ceiling than Machado and as a left-handed batter breaks up the Cubs’ core of right-handed hitters (Bryant, Baez, and Contreras).   Cubs fans can salivate at the prospect of a Murderer’s Row of Bryant, Harper, Baez, Rizzo, and Contreras.  Harper would take over as the team’s regular right fielder, pushing Heyward to center and possibly a young outfielder off the roster, which we’ll discuss later.

The possibility the Cubs prefer Machado should not be discounted.  Fans can also dream on a Machado-Baez middle infield combination, although Baez may actually be the superior shortstop.  Signing Machado seems to create an inefficiency – pushing Baez back to second, or pushing Bryant to left field.  That is, unless Machado is willing to sign under the same conditions most current Cubs position players have, where all but Rizzo, Contreras, and Albert Almora bounce around to multiple positions.  I think the Cubs are better-served with Harper in right field and a Heyward-Almora platoon in center.

Almora might be wasted on the short side of a platoon, however, and the Cubs will likely consider trading him under certain scenarios.  Likewise, Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ face the possibility of a trade, particularly if the Cubs acquire a starting outfielder.  Schwarber, 26 in March, quieted the talk of his left field defense as a liability.  However, he proved powerless against left-handed pitching and was limited to seeing southpaws only 18% of the time under Maddon.  There could be another gear for Schwarber if he starts hitting lefties, but as always, Maddon is reluctant to give him that full opportunity on a contending club.

Happ, a 24-year-old switch-hitter, played all three outfield positions and third base this year.  Strikeouts were up and power was down in his sophomore season, and he too was unable to hit lefties.  Though he’s technically more versatile than Schwarber, Happ seems position-less.  He spent more time in center field than any other position (403 2/3 innings) despite being the team’s third-best center fielder.  The Cubs limited his time in the infield this year.  Schwarber is arbitration eligible for the first time this winter and is controlled for three more seasons; Happ remains near the league minimum and is controlled for five more seasons.  It’s simpler retaining Schwarber: keep him in left field, try to unlock his power against left-handed pitching, and he might yet become a middle of the order hitter.  Trading Happ is risky, though, given the five remaining years of team control.

Harper and Machado are certainly not the Cubs’ only options for outside additions.  They’re just the best ones.  Free agent bats like Nelson Cruz, Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock, Michael Brantley, Jed Lowrie, Wilson Ramos, and Yasmani Grandal don’t clearly make the Cubs better or fit onto their roster.  The trade market doesn’t appear to boast a superstar, either, unless you think the Cubs could pry Nolan Arenado loose from the Rockies for his final year before free agency.

Cubs shortstop Addison Russell received a 40-game suspension for violating MLB’s domestic violence policy based on claims from his ex-wife, and he will be ineligible to play until May 3rd next year.  Asked if Russell will return to the Cubs next year, Epstein replied, “I don’t know.  With all of our words and actions going forward, whether we know it or not, we’re sending messages to our fans.”  The Cubs don’t have the moral high ground when it comes to domestic violence, having traded for Aroldis Chapman in 2016 about ten months after that pitcher’s incident.  In this case, which unlike that one is post-“Me Too,” the PR move probably coincides with the baseball move, and most expect the Cubs to let Russell go.  We’ll likely learn next month whether Russell is too toxic to trade to another team, but I would guess not.

Moving on, let’s discuss the Cubs’ starting rotation.  Lester, Hendricks, and Quintana are locked in.  Yu Darvish’s first year was a disaster, with the pitcher making only eight MLB starts due to a parainfluenza virus, triceps tendinitis/inflammation, a shoulder impingement, and a stress reaction in his elbow.  He had seemingly minor elbow surgery in September and is expected to be ready for Spring Training.  Given his salary and past success, Darvish will have a spot in the Cubs’ rotation whenever he’s ready.  The Cubs also have Drew Smyly under contract.  Smyly, a 29-year-old southpaw, underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2017 and signed a two-year deal with the Cubs last December.  He’ll be 18 months removed from the procedure when pitchers and catchers report in February and could be an asset given his past success with the Tigers and Rays.

While the Cubs will be cautiously optimistic on Darvish and Smyly for 2019, there is no such optimism for Tyler Chatwood.  The Cubs gave Chatwood a three-year, $38MM deal last December based mostly on upside, and the righty’s already-poor control became the worst in baseball in 2018.  In fact, Chatwood’s 19.6% walk rate was the fifth-worst in baseball history for pitchers with at least 100 innings.  The Cubs’ 2018 season served as a reminder how much every win counts, and I can’t see how Chatwood would have a role on the 2019 Cubs.  Russell Martin could make for an excellent bad contract swap from the Cubs’ side, though not so much from Toronto’s.  Alex Gordon, Zack Cozart, Homer Bailey, and Martin Prado could be other potential targets in my estimation.

Though the Cubs also have Mike Montgomery as a back-end rotation depth option, there’s more than enough uncertainty to justify picking up Cole Hamels’ $20MM option.  Hamels, 35 in December, was excellent in a dozen starts for the Cubs after a July trade from Texas.  The Cubs could also attempt to negotiate a two-year deal with Hamels at a lower average annual value.

Aside from the offense, the Cubs’ other big problem is a lack of bullpen depth.  In a world where teams are giving half their innings to relievers in the playoffs, the Cubs would have had a difficult time making a sustained postseason run even if they had beaten the Rockies.  Brandon Morrow’s season ended on July 15th due to biceps inflammation, even though the injury was initially thought to be on the minor side.  Given the 34-year-old’s extensive injury history, this couldn’t have been a shock for the Cubs.  Morrow was excellent when he was healthy, and he’ll be delicately deployed in the late innings in 2019.  The Cubs have Steve Cishek under contract and will pick up their option on Pedro Strop, making for a decent right-handed trio.  Beyond that, I expect multiple external additions and a good amount of turnover.  The Cubs do control Montgomery, Carl Edwards Jr., and Randy Rosario.  They have Duensing under contract after a terrible year, and should expect Brandon Kintzler to pick up his $5MM player option after his rough stint on the North Side.

Edwards is a tantalizing, frustrating talent, and the Cubs have to wonder whether he’ll ever be a reliable late inning option for them.  From the left side, the Cubs can do better than Montgomery, Rosario, and Duensing.  The club will have to be prepared to release Duensing and/or Kintzler if those veterans fail to impress in Spring Training.  Bottom line: it’s time to turn over at least half the bullpen.  I don’t expect the Cubs to make a run at Craig Kimbrel, but the free agent market still offers a long list of options, including Adam Ottavino, Jeurys Familia, David Robertson, Andrew Miller, Joakim Soria, Cody Allen, Zach Britton, and a pair of rehabbing former closers (Kelvin Herrera & Trevor Rosenthal).  One veteran worth retaining is Jesse Chavez, who ascended to the top of the Cubs’ decimated bullpen by year’s end and reportedly wants to return.

The Cubs also have a bit of managerial drama, with Joe Maddon entering lame duck status in 2019.  Epstein said all the right things about Maddon after the season, but there’s still a feeling that Maddon’s tenure in Chicago is nearing an end.  My guess is that short of a 2019 World Championship, Maddon departs after the season.

Though most MLBTR readers graded the Cubs’ 2017-18 offseason an A or a B at the time, the first year results of those deals were quite poor.  The stakes might be higher this time around.  Now that expectations are sky-high, this year’s early playoff exit must be considered a disappointment.  The money involved could be bigger than ever and Epstein will be making decisions that have a large impact on whether his team can pull off another World Championship inside the three years of control remaining for Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez.

2018-19 Market Snapshot: Shortstop

By | at

This is the latest installment in our Market Snapshot series. We’re crossing to the left side of the infield after recently running through the many options at second.

Teams In Need

The most obvious potential buyers at the shortstop position are the Phillies and Brewers. Both of these National League contenders have former top prospects available at the position, but thus far they haven’t really panned out.

There’s a clear opening at the position for the Padres and Tigers, but it’s far from evident that either team will make a significant acquisition. For the San Diego organization, it wouldn’t be surprising if they seek another gap-filler while waiting for top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. to finish his development. In Detroit, there’s perhaps an argument to be made for opportunism, especially if the club finds a chance to pick up a relatively youthful player for an appealing price tag.

It’s at least be arguable that the Diamondbacks ought to look to improve at shortstop (or, alternatively, second base), but that may not prove worthwhile if the organization decides on a sell-off. Likewise, the Marlins and Orioles could certainly stand to improve at the position but no doubt won’t be aggressively paying for near-term improvement.

The Yankees will at least need to bolster their depth to open the season following the announcement of Tommy John surgery for Didi Gregorius. Whether that opens the door for a bigger move remains to be seen. Corey Seager will have had much more time to recover from his own TJS, so there’s not much reason to think the Dodgers have a real need at the position.

Though the White Sox got improved glovework from Tim Anderson, and are committed to him through an extension, perhaps there’s still room for a move there. There’s greater cause to seek improvement in Oakland, given the team’s competitive outlook, though there’s less of a case for bumping Marcus Semien after a solid overall campaign driven by his own strides on defense. Teams like the Braves and Pirates have existing options but perhaps shouldn’t be ruled out entirely from the market.

Free Agents

Likely Regulars: Manny Machado is obviously the prize on the infield market this winter. It remains to be seen whether he’ll insist on playing short — and, if so, how that’ll impact demand. On the off chance that Elvis Andrus opts out of his deal with the Rangers, he’d surely be able to secure a regular job even in spite of a tough season. Otherwise, it’s difficult to see any other market entrants as truly everyday players in 2019.

Timeshare/Utility/Reserve Options: That’s not to say that there aren’t some other free agents who have been regulars in the not-so-distant past. Jordy Mercer, Jose Iglesias, Freddy Galvis, and even Alcides Escobar have racked up quite a few plate appearances in recent seasons. It wouldn’t be terribly surprising for one or more of those glove-first players to see action in 120+ games in 2019, though that’ll likely occur with a second-division club. A slate of other players — Asdrubal Cabrera, Eduardo Escobar, Marwin Gonzalez, and Jed Lowrie — will reach the open market with much more impressive hitting resumes. In each case, though, it would rate as a surprise if they were tasked primarily with playing short rather than other spots on the infield.

Depth/Bounceback Options: Pete Kozma, Dixon Machado, Cliff Pennington, Jose Reyes, Eric Sogard

Trade Targets

The Blue Jays have an interesting mix of solid/youthful (Aledmys Diaz, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Richard Urena), injury-plagued/aging (Troy Tulowitzki), and fast-rising/unproven (Bo Bichette) options on hand. Whether they’ll choose to deal from this group, which could also fan out across the Toronto infield and farm system, remains to be seen. The Phillies could elect to part with J.P. Crawford or Scott Kingery, depending upon how they tackle an interesting upcoming offseason. There’s also some potential extra depth in Texas, though the Andrus contract (4/$58MM with opt-out) isn’t a positive-value asset and the Rangers have plenty of ways to find playing time for Jurickson Profar.

Meanwhile, the Cubs have yet to figure out what to do with Addison Russell, who’ll sit out the first month or so of the 2019 season owing to a suspension under the league’s domestic violence policy. He’s projected to earn $4.3MM and is coming off of his worst season at the plate. If the Chicago organization decides it’s time to move on, other clubs that like Russell as a player will have to contemplate his suspension as well as the allegations of emotional and physical abuse that led to it.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top