Click here to read a transcript of this week’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
2018-19 Market Snapshot: Third Base
This is the latest installment in our Market Snapshot series. Today, we’ll round out the infield by taking stock of the situation at the hot corner.
Teams In Need
There aren’t many committed contenders with glaring holes at third base, which is rather interesting given the number of quality options on the open market this year. Of course, there are still quite a few teams that can and arguably should pursue upgrades at the hot corner.
It seems reasonable to expect the 2019 season to feature another shoot-out between the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East. Both have talented young players at third, in Miguel Andujar and Rafael Devers, but have at various points faced questions regarding their commitment to those options. Somewhat similarly, the Braves and Phillies could perhaps justifiably rely on existing players (Johan Camargo/Austin Riley and Maikel Franco/J.P. Crawford) but surely also like the idea of improving.
The central divisions have several potential destinations to watch. The White Sox are an interesting opportunistic buyer, while the ALC-rival Indians could choose to utilize star infielder Jose Ramirez at second or third base, putting them in play here as well. It’s not clear what the Twins will do with Miguel Sano, but it’s certainly possible they’ll prefer to have another player at third base. On the NL side, it’s arguable that the Cardinals ought to be looking at the hot corner as a place to improve, though the organization still has alternatives on hand and may not wish to commit for too long a stretch with a slate of intriguing prospects nearing the majors. Meanwhile, the Pirates will at least need a platoon partner for Colin Moran, while the Brewers were comfortable moving Travis Shaw off of third base this year and could conceivably do so again over the longer haul.
Several other organizations could be looking to add as well, though none figure to be big spenders. The Padres are in a bit of an odd spot. There’s a slate of internal possibilities — including some top prospects nearing the majors and still-wandering defender Wil Myers — but it’s also possible to imagine scenarios where they seek a gap-filler or even pursue a significant player. The Diamondbacks, depending upon their approach to the winter and the health of Jake Lamb, could be a factor. Meanwhile, the Royals, Orioles, and Marlins aren’t committed to anyone at the position — Brian Anderson is a factor at the hot corner and the corner outfield for Miami — but also won’t be prioritizing near-term performance.
Free Agents
Potential Regulars: Manny Machado is easily the top asset in this class — if, that is, he’s really willing to consider signing as a third baseman as opposed to insisting on playing shortstop. Still, it’s arguable that Josh Donaldson is an even more interesting player to watch. The former star is entering his age-33 season on the heels of an injury-plagued campaign, but showed flashes of his former brilliance in a late-season run with the Indians (.280/.400/.520 in 60 plate appearances) before a disappointing-but-brief postseason showing.
Mike Moustakas represents a solid option for those teams looking to plug in a steady piece at the hot corner — and willing to overlook his well-established OBP limitations. Organizations with greater interest in moving players around, however, may look elsewhere. Eduardo Escobar and Marwin Gonzalez are not substantially younger than Moustakas, and aren’t quite the power threats, but also have much more experience at other spots around the infield. They are also both switch-hitters. Either player could conceivably end up seeing significant action at a given position, perhaps third base, or moving around the field.
A few other veterans also represent quite notable factors on the market, though it’s somewhat difficult to tab any as clear options for everyday duties at third. Adrian Beltre is generally seen as being likely either to re-up with the Rangers or retire, but he’d be an interesting target for some clubs if he decides to test the market. Meanwhile, Asdrubal Cabrera and especially Jed Lowrie have legitimate cases to continue receiving consistent playing time, though it’s not yet clear whether teams will view them as regulars at one position — in Lowrie’s case, especially, second base seems likelier than third — or more as heavily-used utility pieces.
Timeshare/Utility/Reserve Options: David Freese has hit enough that the Dodgers will need to seriously consider his $6MM option. Otherwise, he’ll be a popular veteran target. Josh Harrison will also draw interest in the likely event that his own option is declined; though he’s more of a utility option at this point, his ability to play third will increase his appeal. Several other bounceback candidates — Logan Forsythe, Jung-ho Kang, Sean Rodriguez, Pablo Sandoval and Luis Valbuena — will be available.
Depth Options: Ryan Flaherty, Chase Headley, Jose Reyes, Andrew Romine, Danny Valencia
Trade Targets
Nobody would draw more rental interest than Nolan Arenado, who has drawn at least some speculation as a target, but there’s no real reason to think the Rockies will be willing to listen after a season in which they reached the postseason. He’s likely the only star player who’s even a hypothetical trade piece, and perhaps the only true regular as well.
It could be that the Rangers will listen on Joey Gallo or Jurickson Profar, though both have graded better defensively at other positions and have rather clear paths to significant playing time in Texas. Neither seems likely to be targeted as an everyday option at the hot corner elsewhere. The aforementioned Franco is a possible buy-low candidate if the Phillies go in a different direction, while there are some clubs that might consider utilizing Sano at the hot corner if the Twins decide to cut bait. If they move, this pair will likely hold the most interest for rebuilding teams that can take a chance on the upside.
Otherwise, conceivable part-time trade candidates include Derek Dietrich and Martin Prado of the Marlins, Eduardo Nunez of the Red Sox (assuming he picks up his club option), Yolmer Sanchez of the White Sox, Jedd Gyorko of the Cardinals, Yangervis Solarte of the Blue Jays, and Tommy La Stella of the Cubs.
More interesting trade possibilities could certainly also open up once the free agent market begins to resolve itself. Contenders that choose to invest in high-end veterans, after all, may find themselves with quality younger players that can be utilized as assets to acquire other pieces.
Marlins Acquire International Pool Money From Astros
12:49pm: The Marlins added $500K in spending capacity to their coffers in today’s swap, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
11:04am: The Marlins and Astros have officially struck a deal that will send yet more international bonus pool availability to the Miami organization, as MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro first reported (via Twitter). Houston will receive a pair of prospects — outfielder Adonis Giron and lefty Brayan De Paula — in the swap.
It is not yet known how much spending capacity will flow to the Marlins in this deal. Per another Frisaro tweet, though, the Fish believe they’ve now got deeper pockets to work with than do the Orioles — the other primary competitor for the top international amateur talent left for bidding in the current signing period.
At last glance, the Marlins had moved past $6MM in pool space after yet another swap. The club needed to pick up over $2MM in funds to exceed the $6.7MM the Orioles were believed to be working with. Bonus pool availability — which sets a hard cap on spending — can only be dealt in $250K increments. Teams are limited to adding 75% of their starting allocation.
The remaining international market is widely said to offer three top prizes, all of whom evidently are objects of the Marlins’ and Orioles’ affections. Victor Victor Mesa is generally viewed as the best player available, with his younger brother Victor Mesa Jr. and righty Sandy Gaston also graded as intriguing young assets. Each member of this trio of Cubans is subject to international spending limitations.
Much like the other teams that have struck deals of late with the Marlins — the Nationals and Reds — the Astros weren’t able to put their existing international pool space to full use. By virtue of prior spending penalties, imposed under the prior rules regime, the Houston organization was barred from spending more than #400K on any given player.
The ’Stros, then, decided instead to use that availability to pick up a pair of youthful players — recent international signees themselves. The 17-year-old Giron spent the year with the Marlins’ Dominican Summer League entrant, slashing .255/.331/.362 in 275 plate appearances. He previously inked for $350K, with a reputedly intriguing bat. De Paula, 19, also appeared on the DSL roster for a second consecutive year, spinning 44 1/3 innings of 2.23 ERA ball with 9.1 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9.
Rangers Hire Shiraz Rehman As Assistant GM
The Rangers have officially struck a deal to hire Shiraz Rehman to an assistant general manager post. The Cubs Insider blog reported the news late last night.
Rehman had been with the Cubs for seven seasons, the last five of those coming in an AGM capacity. Most recently, he was tabbed to head up the Chicago organization’s “strategic initiatives.” When he received that assignment before the current season, Rehman was said to be charged with “evaluating existing systems, and recognizing and applying solutions in an effort to create competitive advantages for the organization.”
Rehman will be occupying a “similar role” in Texas, but he’ll do so in a kitchen with somewhat fewer cooks. Presently, the organization lists three assistant GMs underneath general manager Jon Daniels: Josh Boyd (professional scouting, R&D, & pacific rim operations), Mike Daly (major league operation & international scouting), and Jayce Tingler (player development), with Tingler widely expected to take a uniformed role in 2019. Rehman had also been one of three AGMs in Chicago. But that department is headed by both executive VP/GM Jed Hoyer and president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, with senior VP Jason McLeod also a noted senior decisionmaker.
It seems reasonable to presume that, even if his title won’t change much, Rehman will be moving into a somewhat loftier spot on the totem pole with his new organization. Indeed, the club’s announcement provides that he’ll “assist President of Baseball Operations and General Manager Jon Daniels in the day-to-day management of Major League operations of the baseball department, including player acquisitions, roster management, player contracts, and salary arbitration.”
Anthopoulos Discusses Braves’ Offseason
Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos held court with the media today after the team announced a new deal for manager Brian Snitker. David O’Brien of The Athletic discussed many of the comments in a subscription post that’s well worth a full read for fans. We’ll run through some key items here.
The chat was interesting on several levels, even if the veteran executive was cautious not to divulge anything that might tip his hand. Anthopoulos touched upon some of the competing priorities facing the organization, the balancing of which will shape the team for years to come.
Even in terms of perceived needs, there’s room for debate. As Anthopoulos noted, in reference to pending free agents Nick Markakis and Kurt Suzuki, “everyone’s under control, except for those two spots.” There’s a world, then, in which the organization largely relies upon existing options, including its intriguing slate of rising talent, while perhaps weighing reunions with those two veterans or otherwise plugging those gaps with outside additions.
But Anthopoulos certainly did not sound like he was preparing only to take a straightforward approach to filling those holes. “We’re going to look to upgrade a lot of areas,” he said. “We can improve in the rotation, the bullpen, offensively — in so many areas.”
Indeed, that comment makes it seem as if just about every part of the roster is potentially in play for change. In seeking improvement, though, the club will need also to balance the pulls of relative certainty versus upside, as well as present versus future value.
Anthopoulos acknowledged as much, noting that he “wouldn’t force a deal right now that will limit [the team] in years to come.” While he made that comment in reference to potential free agent signings that might weigh down future payrolls, it applies just as handily to far-away prospects that could be utilized as trade capital or kept to help form future Braves rosters. Particularly given that the Atlanta organization was slapped with fairly significant penalties for international signing malfeasance under the prior front office regime, drawing from the stock of lower-level talent would arguably be short-sighted.
It’s not terribly difficult to see where things could be headed, then. The penalties did not impact the Braves’ broad pool of upper-level talent. It’s an organization rich with young major-leaguers and promising prospects playing in the high minors, not all of whom are held in equal esteem by the organization and not all of whom will fit onto the 25-man roster. And now that Anthopoulos has been at the helm for a full season, O’Brien notes, he will have a firmer sense of the internal valuations to be placed on those assets.
Of course, moving players who are at or near the MLB level generally means giving up the ability to fill roster spots productively at bargain rates. Acquiring proven, high-level major-leaguers who are still playing for peanuts is next to impossible, even for an organization with a talent pool as deep as Atlanta’s. More likely, the club will be most successful at pursuing players who have at least reached arbitration or who are playing on attractive guaranteed contracts — players, that is, who are worth more than they are being paid, but aren’t still at or near the league-minimum.
Bottom line: improving and deepening a major-league roster almost invariably means adding salary, even if the biggest moves are made via trade. Anthopoulos wasn’t willing to say, though, how much he’ll have to work with. He claimed, in fact, not to know himself while also noting that the team “may decide to hold back some money for July.” While details evidently won’t be forthcoming — “there’s just no upside for us to divulge that stuff”; fair enough — Anthopoulos did claim that his front office “will have a good amount of money to work with.” MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweeted today that indications are the club could add as much as $60MM in salary for 2019, though even that seems to come with some caveats. Plus, the Braves will seemingly be wary of over-committing future balance sheets.
It seems the strong preference will be to part with some upper level talent to achieve cost-conscious but established pieces, rather than getting carried away with the bidding in free agency. Certainly, the Braves GM strongly indicated that fans hoping to land top free agents Bryce Harper or Manny Machado will be disappointed. “There’s the obvious big names up at the top, but I don’t know for our club, with what we have, that the value’s going to be there in the free-agent market,” Anthopoulos said. He suggested that the touchstone of value will govern — even if that means waiting for the middle of the 2019 season or beyond for certain desired acquisitions.
All told, the chat obviously does little to set a clear course. It’s evident still that the Braves could pursue any number of opportunities, in free agency and especially trade. Perhaps it’s also possible that they’ll end up re-uniting with Markakis and Suzuki while otherwise only picking at the edges of the roster, though certainly that does not sound like the hoped-for or expected outcome.
Even if they largely tread water, Anthopoulos’s comments nicely frame the tough but exciting choices that await. With a rather ambitious scope in mind entering the winter, it’s possible to imagine the club at least considering upgrades at all but a few positions on the roster. And if there’s a real desire for impactful roster additions, without the appetite for paying premium free agent price tags, then it’s possible we’ll see a creative, free-wheeling, multi-faceted winter of action in Atlanta.
Pirates Prospect Ji-hwan Bae Found Guilty Of Assaulting Former Girlfriend
Pirates prospect Ji-hwan Bae has been found guilty by a South Korean court of assaulting his former girlfriend. Naver Sports reported the news, with Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic covering the story in further detail (subscription link).
Allegations arose earlier this year against Bae, a talented 19-year-old infielder, relating to a New Year’s Eve incident in 2017. The Pittsburgh organization reported the matter to MLB officials, who did not impose a period of administrative leave while investigating the matter. Bae proceeded to play in 35 games for the Pirates’ Gulf Coast League affiliate.
Despite the determination of guilt for his actions against former girlfriend Seul-Gi Kim, Bae will evidently not serve a prison sentence. Indeed, he’ll only be ordered to pay Kim 2 million won. That translates to less than $2K USD, a relative pittance for a player who received significant paydays when he signed with the Braves and — after he was made a free agent due to international signing improprieties, including with regard to his own situation — with the Pirates. Kim tells The Athletic that she plans to donate that and other money provided to her by Bae.
It seems that Kim has yet to be contacted by MLB investigators, though surely there’ll be some effort to bring the matter to a resolution from the league’s perspective. Though not formally covered by the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault & Child Abuse Policy, minor-league players such as Bae are subject to a similar rules regime through policies instituted by the MLB commissioner’s office. He could theoretically face a suspension, fine, or other disciplinary measures from the league.
Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.
In one of the most fascinating seasons in recent memory, the Rays overhauled their roster, rid themselves of virtually all major financial commitments, experimented with a new way of how to view a “starting pitcher”…and were all the better on the field for it. The Rays shocked baseball with a 90-win season, defying the preseason belief in some quarters that they’d be one of the league’s worst teams. Instead, Tampa will now look to augment an already-talented core group with a few more pieces that can get the club back into the playoffs.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Kevin Kiermaier, CF: $44MM through 2022 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Jesus Sucre — $1.2MM
- Vidal Nuno — $900K
- C.J. Cron — $5.2MM
- Matt Duffy — $2.6MM
- Tommy Pham — $4MM
- Chaz Roe — $1.4MM
- Non-tender candidates: Nuno, Sucre, Cron
Free Agents
[Tampa Bay Rays depth chart | Tampa Bay Rays payroll outlook]
After going into fire-sale mode last winter, the Rays continued to unload veteran names throughout the 2018 season, ultimately sending Alex Colome, Denard Span, Brad Miller, Matt Andriese, Nathan Eovaldi, Wilson Ramos, Adeiny Hechavarria, and Chris Archer out of town in a series of trades. It was the Archer deal, completed on deadline day, that really seemed to mark an end of an era in Rays baseball, as Tampa finally dealt its long-time top starter and firmly looked ahead to the future.
One could hardly have guessed, however, that the “future” would come so soon. Tampa’s 54-53 record on July 31 was already enough of a surprise for a team widely predicted to be a non-contender, yet the Rays went into overdrive over the final two months, posting a 36-19 mark in August and September that allowed the team to reach the 90-win plateau for just the sixth time in franchise history.
Almost all of the core group that contributed to that late-season hot streak will be returning in 2019. Matt Duffy, Willy Adames, Joey Wendle, and Jake Bauers currently project as the starting infield, with Daniel Robertson and Brandon Lowe providing utility depth. Robertson (who was hampered by injuries last year) could very well push Duffy or Adames for regular duty at third base or shortstop, while prospects Christian Arroyo and Nathaniel Lowe could be in the mix for playing time. Wendle’s breakout year as a super-utility weapon can also put him and Lowe in the corner outfield mix, as they’ll join Austin Meadows as the backup choices behind Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier, and Mallex Smith.
Of course, recently-extended skipper Kevin Cash will have plenty of opportunity to mix and match in search of favorable match-ups. And it seems likely that the front office braintrust, led by GM Erik Neander and senior baseball ops VP Chaim Bloom, isn’t quite done tinkering with this mix. Just how they’ll approach the offseason isn’t easy to guess from the outside, but it stands to reason they’ll both target some areas of need and explore opportunities to achieve value.
One area that seems ripe for some change is the catching position. Michael Perez has the inside track on at least a share of the regular role behind the dish, though the team is likely to acquire a veteran to compete with Nick Ciuffo for the right to work as Perez’s platoon partner or backup. A right-handed hitting catcher could be a better fit, as both Perez and Ciuffo hit from the left side.
The Tampa Bay brass will have some decisions to make at first base. Ji-Man Choi exploded after joining the Rays in a minor midseason deal with Milwaukee, posting an .877 OPS over 189 plate appearances in a Tampa Bay uniform. While Choi has played first base and left field in his brief MLB career, the Rays used him almost exclusively as a designated hitter and against right-handed pitching, so there’s room on the bench for another first-base capable righty bat to spell either Choi or Bauers. It’s possible Tampa could simply rotate its internal options through the DH spot to keep everyone fresh, or further take advantage of the versatility offered by Wendle or Robertson by giving either the occasional start at first base.
The other option would be to pursue a relatively low-cost first baseman in free agency or on the trade market, or simply to retain C.J. Cron in arbitration. Though Cron hit .253/.323/.493 with a career-high 30 homers over 560 PA last season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, suggested that Cron will probably be dealt or even non-tendered. It could be that Cron’s somewhat one-dimensional offensive game and ability to only play one position make him an odd fit on a club that ended up prioritizing lineup flexibility and almost eschewing power (27th of 30 teams in home runs) to create a more diverse offense based around contact hitting, speed, and reaching base. (While Choi has many of the same limitations as Cron, Choi is also a pre-arb player with five years of team control.)
There’s also the fact that Cron’s projected arbitration salary is $5.2MM, so the Rays may believe they can find similar production in a power-heavy league for a lower price. Depending on how the rest of the first base market shakes out, Tampa Bay could also non-tender Cron and then try to re-sign him for less money. This may seem like a tough fate for Cron in the wake of a 30-homer, 122 wRC+ season, but as we’ve seen over the last two offseasons, teams simply haven’t been willing to pay much for non-elite first base/DH bats.
After unloading so many of their more expensive players who were already under contract or in line for higher arbitration numbers, this will be the first offseason in a while where payroll isn’t necessarily of the utmost concern for the Rays front office. Kiermaier is the only player guaranteed money in 2019 and beyond, putting the Rays on pace for a 2019 payroll not even half the size of their $76.39MM payroll from Opening Day 2018. This “allows greater flexibility” for the Rays in their offseason acquisitions, as Neander told Topkin and other reporters, though I wouldn’t expect Tampa Bay to spend anywhere close to $76MM in player salaries. You could see the Rays spread some money around on a few players rather than a singular big splash, and maybe save a bit more for midseason additions if necessary.
More room could be created if a trade partner could be found for Kiermaier, who is owed $44MM through 2022 (this figure includes the $2.5MM buyout of a $13MM club option for 2023) and may be expendable since Smith and Meadows can both play center field. The Rays would be selling low on Kiermaier in the wake of another injury-plagued year for the defensive standout, as he was limited to 88 games due to thumb surgery and then a hairline fracture in his foot in the season’s final week.
Kiermaier has played in just 291 of a possible 486 games over the last three seasons, and his hitting numbers took a drop in 2018 after climbing above average (108 wRC+) in 2016-17. A healthy Kiermaier who delivers even moderate offense along with his elite glovework can be a major plus in any lineup, so it could be that the Rays hang onto the 28-year-old into next season to see if he can help them contend, or to let him rebuild value for a potential swap.
Whether Kiermaier is one of the players on the move or not, expect Neander and company to again heavily focus on the trade market for the bulk of their winter activity. (The Mariners and Diamondbacks, in particular, should be on alert for calls from a 727 or 813 area code.) Some deals will be necessary just to create some 40-man roster space, as the Rays are facing a crunch to protect enough of their prospects before the Rule 5 draft, though Tampa could also make trade chips of some of these well-regarded minor leaguers plus any Major League roster members that the team doesn’t see as long-term pieces.
It will be particularly interesting to see how the Rays address their rotation, such as it is, as the team has already said that the “opener” strategy will again be deployed in 2019. The Rays’ unconventional use of a short reliever to start a game’s first inning or two before giving way to a long reliever (a.k.a. the “headliner”) generated much controversy around baseball — some praised the creativity, while others questioned whether the strategy would prove too taxing on a bullpen over the long haul, in addition to criticism that Tampa was ruining the starting pitcher’s status within the game.
Given the results, however, the Rays would’ve probably faced more criticism if they abandoned what proved to be a winning method. The Rays posted the sixth-lowest team ERA in baseball, and their strong finishes in various fielding-independent pitching metrics (fifth in FIP, seventh in SIERA, ninth in xFIP) and a .297 wOBA-against that almost directly matched their .300 xwOBA-against indicated that the performance wasn’t built on good fortune.
One big reason the Rays were able to succeed with their openers, of course, was the fact that they had a more traditional ace develop in the form of AL Cy Young Award contender Blake Snell. Attempting to sign Snell to an extension would mean negotiating with him after a breakout season, though he and his reps will surely have at least some interest in locking in some earnings and protecting against the risk that comes with the job. Certainly, the Rays have proven able in the past to strike such deals when they wish to, a practice that has saved the club loads of money in the long run and ultimately facilitated some notable trades. Even if Snell doesn’t quite match his 2018 production going forward, a young starter signed to a reasonable contract can still be quite a valuable asset, as we saw with the strong haul that Tampa Bay received for Archer.
Going into 2019, Snell and Tyler Glasnow are the only projected full-time starters in the rotation. Yonny Chirinos and Ryan Yarbrough were the most successful of the headliners and could be fully stretched out to be proper starters, or the Rays could simply continue to use them in their 2018 roles. Top pitching prospects Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon should be available by midseason as they return from Tommy John surgery, though it seems likely that they’ll be used as headliners in order to ease them back into regular pitching duty. Such a long relief job might also be the best use of young right-hander Jake Faria, who is trying to rebound from a disappointing and injury-shortened season.
Normally, a low-payroll team with just two set starters would seem like an ideal candidate to acquire a veteran arm to eat innings. If the opener strategy has taught us anything, however, it’s that such expenditures might not be worth it for a team looking to save their dollars — why pay a veteran even a modest $5MM or $6MM per season to chew up innings once every five games when a shrewdly-deployed bullpen can do the same at a fraction of the cost, and with likely better results? If anything, the Rays could look to sign a veteran arm coming off a rough season or an injury with an eye towards turning them into a headliner to rebuild their value, as it did recently with Eovaldi.
The Rays could also spend on their bullpen by bringing in more swingmen capable of tossing multiple innings, or a veteran with closing experience to replace free agent Sergio Romo. Jose Alvarado earned an increasing number of save opportunities down the stretch and is probably the Rays’ top in-house choice to take over the closer’s job, though hard-throwing Ryne Stanek (the most frequent of the openers, “starting” 29 games) has also often been tabbed a closer of the future. Given these varying needs, Trevor Rosenthal could be an interesting target. Not only is he likely to present some value upside as a Tommy John rehabber, but he has plenty of high-leverage experience and a well-documented desire to be given a chance to throw more innings.
Of course, it’s probably not safe to assume that the Rays will use a traditional closer rather than mix and match their ninth inning plans based on matchups. After all, nothing can really be ruled out when it comes to the Rays and data-driven strategies. The team already took care of one bit of business by extending Cash, ensuring that the Rays’ creativity pipeline will continue to flow as usual within both the front office and the dugout. It could be that opponents will start to figure out the Rays’ tricks over the course of a full season, though the team’s deep wealth of multi-positional players and multi-role pitchers make them a difficult team to prepare against.
The success of this in-season rebuild on the fly has put the Rays in position to compete for a wild card spot in 2019, or perhaps even mount a challenge to the Red Sox and Yankees for AL East supremacy if everything absolutely breaks right. As eye-opening as the Rays’ tactics were in 2018, it will be just as interesting to see how they take the next step forward this winter.
Athletics Outright Hatcher, Smolinski, Kiekhefer
5:29pm: Kiekhefer has indeed elected free agency, MLBTR has learned.
2:37pm: The A’s have now announced that both Smolinski and Kiekhefer were outrighted, and the organization further announced that right-hander Chris Hatcher has been outrighted off the 40-man after clearing waivers as well.
Hatcher, 34 in January, appeared in 34 games and pitched to a 4.95 ERA in 36 1/3 innings for Oakland this past season, averaging 7.4 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 1.73 HR/9 and a 42 percent ground-ball rate along the way. Hatcher’s average fastball velocity (93.6 mph) and swinging-strike rate (7.9 percent) have plummeted from their 2015 peaks (96 mph, 12.6 percent, respectively). He’s struggled in each of the past three seasons and would’ve been arbitration-eligible, with a projected $2.4MM salary.
12:37pm: Outfielder Jake Smolinski and left-hander Dean Kiekhefer have both been outrighted off the Athletics’ 40-man roster after clearing waivers, per the MLB.com transactions page. Smolinski has already elected free agency, I’m told, and it seems likely that Kiekhefer will do so as well, as is commonplace in these scenarios.
Smolinski, 30 in February, has seen limited action with Oakland over the past two seasons after logging a career-high 319 plate appearances in 2016. The former second-rounder (Nationals, 2007) mashed at a .278/.372/.548 clip in Triple-A this season but hit just .128/.171/.205 in a tiny sample of 41 plate appearances. (His season was cut short by a blood clot in his left calf.) In parts of four seasons with the Oakland organization, Smolinski is a .227/.287/.357 with a dozen homers, 14 doubles and five triples in a combined 507 plate appearances.
That production isn’t particularly eye-catching, but the right-handed-hitting Smolinski has been a menace in platoon settings, hitting .282/.351/.473 against left-handers to this point in his career. Defensively, Smolinski has experience at all three outfield positions and has played anywhere from average to slightly above-average defense, per Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. He’d been arbitration-eligible for the A’s, albeit with a modest projection of an $800K salary, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
As for Kiekhefer, the 29-year-old southpaw pitched just two innings for the A’s in 2018 but enjoyed a strong minor league campaign between the Reds and A’s organizations. In 58 1/3 minor league frames, Kiekhefer posted a 3.39 ERA with a terrific 51-to-8 K/BB ratio and above-average ground-ball tendencies. Left-handed opponents posted a .224/.263/.346 slash against him between the Majors and minors this season.
Kiekhefer’s big league experience is limited to 24 innings of 6.38 ERA ball between St. Louis (in 2016) and Oakland, but he’s turned in 204 innings of 3.03 ERA ball with 7.0 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9 in parts of five seasons at the Triple-A level. Given that track record, he should have little difficulty finding interest as a minor league free agent this offseason.
Cubs Name Anthony Iapoce Hitting Coach
The Cubs have hired hitting coach Anthony Iapoce away from the Rangers to fill the same role in their own organization, the team announced Monday. Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram had reported just before the formal announcement that Iapoce had already informed the Rangers of his decision to take the Cubs’ offer. Iapoce has been serving as the Rangers’ hitting coach since the end of the 2015 season, when Texas hired him away from the Cubs organization. Chicago dismissed 2018 hitting coach Chili Davis last week after just one year in the organization.
A former minor league outfielder who had an 11-year professional career, the Rangers were Iapoce’s first big league coaching assignment, although the 45-year-old had previously worked in the Cubs’ player development department, where he oversaw their minor league hitting program and served as a special assistant to GM Jed Hoyer and president of baseball ops Theo Epstein. He’s also previously worked as a minor league hitting coordinator with the Blue Jays.
With the Cubs, Iapoce will be tasked with helping to revitalize an offense that, as Epstein put it, “broke somewhere along the lines” in a late-season slump that extended into the National League Wild Card game. Given his past experience with the club, Iapoce will already have some degree of rapport with Epstein, Hoyer and manager Joe Maddon, all of whom were in the organization along with Iapoce back in 2015.
The Rangers, meanwhile, are already looking for a new manager and were already in search of a new assistant hitting coach after letting go of Justin Mashore. As Wilson notes, Texas GM Jon Daniels had already given the rest of his coaching staff freedom to pursue other opportunities after telling them that their 2019 fates would not be determined until the Rangers name a new manager. Texas will now be assured of further turnover in the dugout as the organization looks to piece together a developmentally-focused field staff to work with an expected youth movement.
Braves Dismiss Pitching Coach Chuck Hernandez
The Braves announced to reporters this morning that pitching coach Chuck Hernandez will not return in that role for the 2019 season (Twitter links via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). The rest of the coaching staff is returning on new two-year contracts, which match the length of the extension inked by manager Brian Snitker earlier this morning. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman had previously tweeted that Hernandez’s spot on the coaching staff could be in jeopardy.
Though the Braves surprised with a 90-win season and a National League East division title in 2018, the team’s pitching staff was an obvious question mark down the stretch and proved to play a significant factor in the team’s early exit from the postseason. Atlanta pitchers walked an MLB-worst 10.31 percent of the hitters they faced during the regular season, and the Braves’ staff issued 27 walks in a 3-1 series loss to the Dodgers in the NLDS.
Hernandez, 57, will unsurprisingly take the fall for the staff’s inability to locate the strike zone, even if the blame can’t be solely placed on his shoulders. He spent three seasons in the Braves organization, serving as a minor league pitching coordinator in 2016 before taking the reins as the Major League pitching coach in 2o17. A baseball lifer, Hernandez began his career as a coach 33 years ago in the White Sox’ minor league system and has served on Major League staffs with the Braves, Marlins, Indians, Tigers, Rays and Angels (where he was named pitching coach at the age of 31 in 1992).
Burns notes that GM Alex Anthopoulos indicated an openness to retaining Hernandez in a different capacity (Twitter link), though it’s not clear whether Hernandez himself wants to return in a new role. Given his vast experience, he’d certainly be a candidate to land a coaching job elsewhere even after being cut loose in Atlanta, and he may simply prefer the opportunity to embark on a new challenge in another organization.
The rest of the Atlanta staff includes bench coach Walt Weiss, hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, assistant hitting coach Jose Castro, first base coach Eric Young, third base coach Ron Washington, bullpen coach Marty Reed and catching coach Sal Fasano. The Braves will presumably go outside the organization to find a new pitching coach in the coming weeks.
