J.T. Realmuto Trade Talks “Gaining Momentum”
TODAY: The Marlins aren’t allowing teams to discuss an extension with Realmuto, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports (Twitter link). This would certainly seem to be an obstacle for the Padres, given Morosi’s earlier news. Beyond the Padres and Dodgers, Frisaro also lists the Rays, Reds, Braves, and Astros as suitors in the Realmuto sweepstakes, and it’s still “hard to handicap who has [the] inside edge” at this point.
FRIDAY: Trade talks between the Marlins and rival organizations regarding backstop J.T. Realmuto are “gaining momentum,” according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). In particular, he adds, the Padres and Dodgers are “believed most prominent” in the current stage of talks.
Those NL West rivals have long been rumored to be in the hunt for a player who established himself as the game’s best receiver in 2018. With two affordable seasons of control remaining, Realmuto is one of the top prizes of the offseason. That has led other teams — even some with established catchers — to enter the fray as well. At this point, it’s not at all clear that any of the previously rumored interested parties are out of the picture entirely. Frankly, there’s still little reason to believe that any given team is a favorite after months of still-unresolved chatter.
It is interesting, though, to see that report of momentum coincide with this additional, new bit of information: The Padres are not just interested in acquiring Realmuto’s final arbitration-eligible seasons. Rather, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link), the San Diego organization is “insisting on [a] window to negotiate [a] contract extension” if they are to line up on a deal with the Marlins.
Structuring a deal in such a manner holds obvious appeal for the Padres, who surely do not fully expect to contend in 2019. And that could enable the Fish to maximize their return; no doubt, the Padres’ loaded farm includes quite a few players of interest, with San Diego backstops Austin Hedges and Francisco Mejia also representing sensible targets. But it also comes with some risk for the Miami organization. After all, a failure of the extension talks would mean re-opening trade negotiations, possibly with diminished leverage.
It’s worth bearing in mind, of course, that we’ve been waiting all winter for a Realmuto deal to come into focus. Perhaps it finally will — there isn’t much of a window left before camp opens, after all — but this certainly isn’t the first time we’ve been told of a build-up in talks. (See here and here.)
Marlins Want Francisco Mejia In Padres’ Offer For J.T. Realmuto
The Padres have emerged as one of the more ardent trade suitors for Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, and now Miami looks to have its eyes on one of San Diego’s young backstops. The Marlins want catching prospect Francisco Mejia included as part of the Padres’ offer for Realmuto, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports (Twitter link).
Mejia has already switched teams once in his brief pro career, coming to the Padres last summer as the return in the trade that sent Brad Hand and Adam Cimber to the Indians. The 23-year-old switch-hitter was a consensus top-20 prospect in the game last season, with Baseball Prospectus going as far as to rank Mejia as the sport’s fifth-best minor leaguer. He owns a career .293/.347/.452 slash line and 54 home runs over 2127 minor league plate appearances, and Mejia has also seen a bit of action at the MLB level, accumulating 76 PA with Cleveland and San Diego over the last two seasons.
Mejia saw a bit of work as a third baseman and corner outfielder in the minors, as the Tribe and Padres experimented with him at different positions given the presence of incumbent catchers (Yan Gomes, Austin Hedges) at the big league level. With Miami, however, Mejia clearly would be the Marlins’ long-term answer behind the plate as Realmuto’s replacement.
While Mejia is a logical target for the Marlins, he also stands out as something of an expendable piece for the Padres, despite his intriguing potential. Acquiring Realmuto would more than solidify their catching position, of course, particularly if the Padres were able to get Realmuto to agree to a contract extension before a trade (as Morosi mentioned in his earlier report). Mejia’s star potential at the MLB level gives him more trade value than Hedges, who has proven to be an outstanding defender with some pop in his bat, but hasn’t shown much overall hitting prowess over 921 career PA for San Diego.
Given that the Marlins are known to want a huge return for Realmuto, it’s likely that they have also asked San Diego about Fernando Tatis Jr., MacKenzie Gore and Luis Urias, though the Padres have reportedly been unwilling to move any of those top prospects. Even without those three involved, however, San Diego’s highly-touted farm system has so many interesting youngsters that the Padres could put together a tempting multi-prospect offer with Mejia as the headliner.
Minor MLB Transactions: 1/26/19
The latest minor league moves from around baseball…
- The Angels announced their slate of non-roster invitees to their big league Spring Training camp, including several notable prospects, and names whose minor league signings have already been reported here on MLBTR’s pages. The list also includes right-hander Miguel Almonte, who was outrighted off the 40-man roster after being designated for assignment last week. Almonte tossed seven relief innings for the Halos last season, and has an 8.66 ERA over 17 2/3 career innings with the Royals and Angels.
- The Dodgers have re-signed Justin De Fratus to another minor league deal, as revealed by the right-hander himself on his Instagram page. (Hat tip to J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group.) De Fratus posted a 4.74 ERA, 6.3 K/9, and a 3.00 K/BB rate over 133 combined innings for the Dodgers at the Double-A and Triple-A levels last season. He started all 23 of his appearances in 2018, his second straight year of working as a starter after pitching almost exclusively as a reliever from 2010-16. That stretch included De Fratus’ 194 career Major League innings with the Phillies from 2011-15, and he has since pitched in the minors for the Rangers, Mariners, Nationals and Dodgers looking for a return to the Show.
- The Diamondbacks outrighted southpaw Jared Miller off their 40-man roster and down to Triple-A, as per a team announcement. Miller was designated for assignment last week to create roster space for the newly-signed Wilmer Flores. An 11th-round pick for Arizona in the 2014 draft, Miller has a 3.85 ERA, 9.7 K/9, and a 2.08 K/BB rate over 327 career minor league frames, but he was beset by severe control problems last season, issuing a whopping 63 walks over 42 Triple-A innings.
Cubs Sign Junichi Tazawa To Minor League Deal
The Cubs have signed right-hander Junichi Tazawa to a minor league contract, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune reports (Twitter link).
The move reunites Tazawa with Theo Epstein, who was the Red Sox general manager in December 2008 when Tazawa signed with Boston to begin his pro career (bypassing the Nippon Professional Baseball draft in order to go straight to North America). Tazawa was a sturdy member of Boston’s relief corps from 2012-16, though his performance dropped off after he signed a two-year, $12MM free agent deal with the Marlins prior to the 2017 season. The righty posted a 6.57 ERA over 75 1/3 innings in Miami, which led to his release last May.
Tazawa signed minors deals with the Tigers and Angels last season, getting back to the Majors for eight September games in an Angels uniform. All in all, it has been an ugly two years for Tazawa — a 6.16 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 1.74 K/BB rate, and 1.6 HR/9 over his last 83 1/3 frames. He has endured a big spike in his home run and hard-hit ball rates, as well as a decline in fastball velocity (92mph in 2018, down from 93mph in 2017 and an average of better than 94mph during his time in Boston).
Despite these recent struggles, there isn’t much risk for the Cubs in taking Tazawa to Spring Training to see if he has anything left in the tank. Chicago has been on the hunt for low-cost bullpen help this winter, looking for depth since incumbent closer Brandon Morrow could miss Opening Day in the wake of elbow surgery. Brad Brach signed a one-year, Major League deal with the team on Thursday, while the Cubs have also added the likes of Rob Scahill and George Kontos on minor league contracts.
Twins Front Office Discusses Spending Plans
It seems the Twins are preparing for a light spending year, as Phil Miller of the Star Tribune writes, in spite of an apparent opportunity to challenge in the game’s weakest overall division. That seems to have led to some less-than-compelling efforts at selling the approach to fans.
“The best moves are made not when you’re trying to open the window to contend, but when the window is wide open,” GM Thad Levine says. “We’re very eagerly waiting for this window to be opened, and when it is, we plan on striking.”
Meanwhile, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey cited a desire to “invest appropriately for the right years” and to “make sure we are getting the best years” when it comes to paying for talent.
To be frank, these statements are a bit befuddling. The logic is circular, to the extent it’s discernible at all. How is it, exactly, that one knows when the window has been opened, to borrow Levine’s passively-framed metaphor? Not just past performance, of course; after all, Falvey decries free agency, which “historically, is sometimes more focused on the past.” Instead, he says, “I want to pay for what’s coming in the future.” So, do the Twins foresee success?“You need to invest in the group that you have,” he says, “and I feel really good about ours.” Despite that assessment, here we are, evidently waiting for that window to be opened.
Somewhat ironically, there’s a risk here for the Twins that, by the time the window is opened (whatever it is that entails), it’ll slam back shut rather quickly. For one thing, as Falvey himself explained, low-budget teams oversee “a lot of variation … in terms of performance” since they are reliant upon less-proven talent year after year. So, perhaps, a one-year performance boost can’t even necessarily be relied upon (as the Twins well know from recent experience) in deciding when to push the pedal down. How, then, do you know when to get aggressive?
For another, the Twins’ would-be “core” group isn’t all that fresh-faced. Virtually all of the club’s key players are already in arbitration or will qualify for it next fall. Four of the team’s five starters will be free agents at season’s end. Even if there are some promising developments from still-controllable players, it could become awfully expensive to build around them before they themselves reach top-end arb salaries and then free agency.
The Minnesota front office duo found itself on more comfortable ground when emphasizing the more affirmative aspects of the plan. It seems there’s quite a premium being place on flexibility. That aspect of the explanation makes greater intuitive sense. Levine suggests that the club’s “unusual abundance of variance and volatility” — a characterization with which I’d generally agree — leaves some real upside on the table. If things break right, he says, the club has the assets needed “to make adjustments to this team pretty quickly.”
The plan, then, seems to be for the organization to see whether Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, and others will force the issue — with pending free agent bounceback candidates like Jonathan Schoop, Michael Pineda, Jake Odorizzi, Martin Perez, Blake Parker, and Addison Reed also representing major wild cards. Is things shake out, and the Indians stumble, then a deadline buy is always possible. If not, the Twins can trade the short-term pieces that are performing and look ahead to a future in which the organization has literally no salaries on the books.
That all makes sense enough, but it’s still surely rather frustrating for some fans. As Miller notes, the club is presently on track to carry a payroll that would stay below $100MM. That would seem to leave a fair bit of coin on the table when compared to recent spending levels — and leave the team short of maximizing its immediate opportunity (even account for possible mid-season swaps). Levine says the Twins want to strike when the moment is right; Falvey says they need to invest in the future. There’s an argument to be made that paying or trading for some relatively youthful, quality contributors now would be the perfect way to bet on the team’s talent without jeopardizing the future.
Astros Owner Jim Crane On Keuchel, Marwin, Free Agency
Astros owner Jim Crane gave some interesting comments today regarding his organization’s remaining plans for the winter and the state of the market at large, as MLB.com’s Alyson Footer of MLB.com reports on Twitter. It’s tough to tell the degree of interest, but Crane certainly seemed to indicate that the organization has some realistic inclination to bring back one or more of its recent players who remain available on the open market.
“We’ve got a couple guys that were here last year that are a possibility to be back here [this] year,” said Crane. “We hope that happens.” He went on to specifically cite southpaw Dallas Keuchel and utilityman Marwin Gonzalez, both of whom are among the most-accomplished players who have yet to find new teams. Calling both Keuchel and Gonzalez “great players and great for the franchise,” Crane suggested there was at least a chance still of a reunion. “Maybe something will work out there,” he said, “who knows?”
It’s certainly arguable that both of those outgoing free agents still make sense on the roster. Between Keuchel and Charlie Morton, the Astros saw a lot of innings walk out the door. While there are options on hand to fill them, pursuit of another starter has long seemed sensible. It’s a bit of a tougher match with Gonzalez, particularly now that the Houston front office has acquired a potential replacement piece in Aledmys Diaz, but perhaps he’d still be of interest at the right price.
The club also bid adieu to several other veterans this winter, a few of whom have already signed elsewhere (including Morton). Backstop Martin Maldonado, southpaw reliever Tony Sipp, and DH Evan Gattis, however, all remain available after wrapping up their contracts with the ‘Stros. Among them, Sipp seems to represent the most sensible roster fit, though there’s no reason to think at this point that he’s a particular target.
However things shake out on Keuchel and Gonzalez, Crane’s comments didn’t admit of much of an opening for the team to pursue free agent market’s two biggest stars — or much of an appetite for any true blockbuster contracts in the future. Stating that the market is “a little bottled up” due to the ongoing presence of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, Crane went on to offer some revealing thoughts on the state of the hot stove economy and his own organization’s theoretical leanings.
“I think that teams are very focused on value,” said Crane of the business-wide approach to free agency. “I don’t know that you’ll see many more ten-year deals in this business anymore because the analytics are so good and a lot of those deals never work.”
The notion of value as an overriding concern — increasingly treated as something of an actuarial assessment of risk — is hardly a novel concept. But it’s interesting to see an owner not only come forward with that viewpoint, but to characterize it as an industry-wide phenomenon and acknowledge a particular practical ramification of such an approach.
Beyond those somewhat eyebrow-raising aspects of Crane’s comment, it’s also an interesting point to consider. It’s certainly possible to imagine decade-long deals that make sense, particularly for especially youthful players, even if it’s to be expected that the bulk of the on-field performance contributions will be reaped in such a contract’s earlier seasons. Beyond that, nobody really needed analytics to tell them of the concerns with guaranteeing so much money for so many years to one necessarily aging, potentially injured player. After all, the teams that have done so in the past did not tack on years and dollars because they preferred to; they simply did what it took to get the player in an open bidding situation.
Such elite players remain highly prized, of course, but the still-deepening analytical revolution — which has both recognized and helped usher in an influx of cheaply-acquired, increasingly well-prepared, league-minimum-earning players along with a youthened aging curve — has pointed to cheaper ways to maximize roster output while highlighting the financial risks of clogging future payrolls. The resulting reductions in demand have made it increasingly difficult for free agents to squeeze extra guaranteed seasons from clubs.
It’ll be interesting to see how things transpire this winter, with a pair of obvious candidates for extremely lengthy deals still waiting to sign them. While the Astros evidently will not be dabbling in such corners of the market, they’ll still be working to improve the roster in other ways — perhaps even by looking at the second tier of remaining free agents, which includes Keuchel, Gonzales, and others. “Every day we’re looking at opportunities,” says Crane.
MLBPA Hires Jerry Crasnick
Long-time journalist Jerry Crasnick has an intriguing new gig, with the Major League Baseball Players Association announcing his hiring. He’ll serve as senior advisor for player, agent, and media relations, working alongside just-promoted director of communications Chris Dahl.
It came as a major surprise last year when Crasnick’s tenure with ESPN was brought to a close. He was a fixture in the baseball reporting community and had enjoyed a productive, a 15-year run at the sports media giant. Over the years, Crasnick provided a trove of insightful hot stove journalism; he also reported quite a few items that were cited on this website.
With the move, Crasnick will take up a role at the MLBPA at quite an interesting time for the union and its members. Effectively addressing the suboptimal developments in the sphere of player compensation will obviously require more than new collective bargaining ideas and willpower at the negotiating table. It’ll also mean laying the groundwork for leverage by performing nuanced public relations work.
MLBTR offers a tip of the cap to Jerry for all his outstanding reporting over the years and wishes him well in his new pursuit.
Cubs To Sign George Kontos
The Cubs have agreed to a minor-league deal with reliever George Kontos, according to Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com (via Twitter). The deal comes with an invitation to participate in spring camp as a non-roster player.
Kontos, 33, has a long track record of getting results at the MLB level, though he has rarely flashed truly convincing peripherals. It’s hard to argue with 357 frames of 3.10 ERA pitching in the bigs. At the same time, with an underwhelming combination of 6.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and a 43.7% groundball rate for his career, Kontos carries only a 3.82 FIP, 4.00 xFIP, and 3.76 SIERA.
Generating light contact has been the name of the game for Kontos, who has held opposing hitters to a .265 batting average on balls in play for his career. Despite the unremarkable strikeout totals, he has also carried a strong 11.7% lifetime swinging-strike rate. Most intriguing of all was a 2017 bump in that statistic to an elite 16.4% level, though Kontos did not carry that with him into the ensuing campaign. He ultimately matched his career-worst ERA last year, allowing 4.39 earned runs per nine over 26 2/3 innings while bouncing between three teams.
All said, there’s plenty to like in securing Kontos on a minor-league deal. At worst, he represents a quality depth option to have on hand. And that past whiff rate does still tantalize, particularly since (as Levine notes) Kontos has shown an uptick in his velocity in workouts this winter. His typically low-nineties heater had trended down a bit in 2018.
Rays To Sign Casey Sadler
The Rays have agreed to a minors deal with righty Casey Sadler. John Dreker of Pirates Prospects first reported the news in December (via Twitter). The pact includes an invitation to participate in MLB Spring Training.
For a Tampa Bay club that has increasingly utilized quite a volume of different pitchers throughout the season, depth is paramount. Sadler, 28, will present the organization with another swingman piece to consider for a multi-inning relief role.
While he has seen MLB action in three campaigns, Sadler remains an out away from his 20th frame at the game’s highest level. He spent all of 2018 at Triple-A with the Pirates organization, which originally drafted him in the 25th round in 2010. In 77 innings for Indianapolis, Sadler worked to a 3.39 ERA with 7.1 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9.
Jose Reyes Hopes To Play In 2019
Veteran infielder Jose Reyes is planning to play the 2019 season, Anthony Rieber of Newsday reports on Twitter. When last we checked in, Reyes had indicated uncertainty as to whether he’d continue his playing career.
The question remains whether Reyes will receive an appealing opportunity. His on-field decline is certainly part of the picture. But Reyes will likely find it especially hard to get another chance given that he was arrested and charged with attacking his wife in 2015. While the charges were ultimately dropped when she decided not to testify, Reyes has acknowledged making a “terrible mistake” and was suspended under the league’s domestic violence policy.
That terribly unfortunate event ultimately set the stage for Reyes to return to the Mets, where he has played for the past three seasons. While he certainly did not rediscover his prior All-Star form, Reyes was an effective player for the organization in the first two years of the deal. He struggled last year, however, with a career-worst .189/.260/.320 batting line in 251 plate appearances.
Under the circumstances, it’s all but impossible to imagine the 35-year-old securing a 40-man roster spot. Some organizations may decide not to consider hiring him at all. Still, there’s little doubt that the switch-hitter remains worthy of a non-roster contract from an on-field perspective, so it would not be surprising to see him catch on somewhere if he’s willing to take a minor-league deal.