Phillies Acquire Jose Alvarez From Angels
The Phillies announced Thursday that they’ve acquired left-handed reliever Jose Alvarez from the Angels in a straight-up swap for right-handed reliever Luis Garcia.
At first glance, the move looks like a head-scratcher for the Halos, as both pitchers come with two years of remaining club control and identical $1.7MM arbitration projections, via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. However, Alvarez turned in a terrific 2018 season, working to a 2.71 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.43 HR/9 and a 45 percent ground-ball rate in 63 innings out of the Angels’ bullpen. Garcia, meanwhile, struggled to a 6.07 ERA in 46 innings of relief. Of course, he also averaged a hefty 10.0 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 with a 48.4 percent ground-ball rate.
Looking past their ERAs, then, Garcia actually graded out more favorably in some regards. Some fielding-independent metrics were actually more bullish on the 31-year-old Garcia than the 29-year-old Alvarez; Garcia’s 3.64 xFIP was superior to Alvarez’s 3.98 mark, and his 3.46 SIERA also bested Alvarez’s mark of 3.78 by a slight margin. Garcia is also just a year removed from a 2.65 ERA in 71 1/3 innings of work, and there’s plenty to like about his 97.2 mph average fastball and impressive 14.5 percent swinging-strike rate. It’s also worth noting that the Phillies were one of the worst defensive teams in baseball by virtually any measure in 2018, which did Garcia and others no favors.
Angels fans will surely bristle at the notion of acquiring a reliever whose ERA checked in north of 6.00, of course, but Major League front offices have generally moved away from evaluating players based solely on that rudimentary mark. Admittedly, however, it still registers as a surprise when looking at the Angels’ moves on the whole; the club bid adieu to Blake Parker via non-tender last week and has effectively replaced him with Garcia — all at the expense of its lone experienced left-handed reliever. Adding another lefty (or two) to the relief corps figures to be a priority for GM Billy Eppler and his staff moving forward.
As for the Phillies, they’ll add a pitcher who can’t match Garcia in terms of velocity or swinging-strike rate but was generally dominant against left-handed opponents in 2018. Alvarez held same-handed batters to a putrid .206/.265/.338 slash through 147 plate appearances in 2018 and will give the Phils a lefty to pair with fellow recent acquisition James Pazos and longtime Philadelphia southpaw Adam Morgan.
Alvarez, in essence, will step into the role that would have been filled by fellow lefty Luis Avilan had he not been non-tendered last week — and he’ll do so with a projected arbitration salary that checks in $1.4MM south of the $3.1MM that Avilan was projected to earn.
Blue Jays Rumors: Tulo, Travis, Stroman, Sanchez
Blue Jays general manager addressed the media last night in an appearance at the annual meeting of the Baseball Writers Association of America’s Toronto chapter, and, in the process, spoke about his team’s 2019 roster and what lies ahead in the 2018-19 offseason (links via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet and Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com).
Atkins didn’t mince words when asked if shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who missed the entire 2018 season due to bone spurs in both feet, would be able to play regularly for the Jays in 2019.
“Candidly, and I think Troy would agree with me, that is not likely,” said the GM. “He will have to overachieve to play shortstop at an above-average level, with above-average offensive performance for 140 games.”
Whether Tulowitzki, 34, would actually agree with Atkins is up for debate; as Chisholm reminds in his column, it was just three months ago when Tulowitzki was asked about moving off the shortstop position and told reporters: “I’m a shortstop. … If someone’s better than me, I’ll pack my bags and go home.”
Certainly, no one should expect that Tulo would actually walk away from the final $38MM on his contract, but the disconnect between the two sets of comments is nonetheless of some note. Davidi adds that Atkins wouldn’t commit to Lourdes Gurriel Jr. as the primary shortstop but acknowledged that “if we were playing tomorrow,” Gurriel would likely get the nod.
The other middle-infield spot doesn’t appear to come with much more certainty. Devon Travis was tendered a contract despite ongoing health issues and an awful season at the plate in 2018 (.232/.275/.381), but Atkins wouldn’t commit to him as the everyday second baseman. Rather, Atkins emphasized that Travis needs to coming into Spring Training and prove that he can “be the best guy for second base for us” in 2019.
Perhaps most notable for the league’s other 29 clubs, though, were Atkins’ comments on right-handers Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez. While nothing Atkins said should be read as an indication that Stroman or Sanchez is being shopped, he stated that he can “absolutely” envision teams making strong enough offers to consider trading either pitcher.
Both Stroman and Sanchez looked to be among the league’s most promising young starters as recently as 2016 (Sanchez) and 2017 (Stroman), but both struggled through poor showings in 2018. Beyond that, both righties are just two years away from free agency, meaning they don’t align well with the Blue Jays’ realistic timeline for contending. That said, selling low on either would be a tough pill to swallow, and it’s arguably more prudent to give each a chance to rebuild some value early in the 2019 season.
Stroman pitched to a 5.54 ERA last season as his K/BB numbers went backward, and he also battled shoulder fatigue and blister issues. But, back in 2017, Stroman turned in a 3.09 ERA with 7.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9 and a whopping 62.1 percent ground-ball rate in 201 innings — his second consecutive season of 200-plus frames. Though his 2018 results were ugly, it’s worth noting that he replicated that exact ground-ball rate this past season and actually allowed home runs at an even lower rate. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $7.2MM in arbitration this winter.
Sanchez, meanwhile, barely kept his ERA under 5.00 in 2018 and averaged five walks per nine innings pitched. It’s the second straight season that he’s posted that exact BB/9 mark and, more importantly, the second consecutive season in which he’s been beset by finger issues that have limited his availability and effectiveness. However, Sanchez posted a league-leading 3.00 ERA over the life of 192 innings back in 2016, making the AL All-Star team and finishing seventh in AL Cy Young voting. That season, he averaged 7.6 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9 and a 54.4 percent grounder rate. Unlike Stroman, he didn’t reach arbitration a year early as a Super Two player, so his $3.8MM arbitration projection is a bit more palatable.
Royals Interested In Billy Hamilton
The Royals are “looking hard” at recently non-tendered center fielder Billy Hamilton, tweets Rustin Dodd of The Athletic. MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan suggests interest on the Royals’ behalf in a column as well, noting that while GM Dayton Moore wouldn’t comment on any intrigue, there’s a general sense among Royals execs that the fleet-footed Hamilton’s skill set would fit Kauffman Stadium well.
Hamilton, who turned 28 in September, was arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter and had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.9MM in 2019 before the Reds cut him loose last week. While he’s long been an offensive liability, Hamilton is among the game’s elite defensive outfielders and perhaps the best baserunner in the game, having swiped 50+ bases each season from 2014-17 and another 34 last year. Over the past three seasons, Hamilton has also been worth 28 Defensive Runs Saved, notched a 26.5 Ultimate Zone Rating and, per Statcast, converted a staggering 52 outs more than could be expected of an average defensive outfielder (based on Statcast’s catch probability data).
None of that was enough to outweight Hamilton’s anemic bat, however, it seems. The switch-hitter has posted a sub-.300 OBP in four of his five full Major League seasons, and while he showed some strides at the plate in 2016, he followed up that year’s .321 OBP with a pair of seasons in which he mustered a combined .242/.299/.331 batting line. Clearly, moving from the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park to the cavernous Kauffman Stadium won’t do his virtually nonexistent power numbers any favors, but there are few in the game better suited than Hamilton to cover all of the ground in Kansas City’s expansive outfield.
At present, Kansas City’s outfield will feature Alex Gordon in left field in the final season of a four-year, $72MM contract. The other two spots are less certain, with Brett Phillips, Brian Goodwin, Jorge Bonifacio and newly signed Chris Owings among the options to fill them. Designated hitter Jorge Soler, too, could see occasional time in right field. While that group is riddled with offensive question marks, and Hamilton would only bring more of the same, it’s also true that an alignment of Gordon, Hamilton and Phillips would be a superlative defensive unit. Adding Hamilton to a lineup that already features Whit Merrifield, he of consecutive AL stolen base crowns, and young speedster Adalberto Mondesi would surely serve to frustrate opposing pitchers and catchers as the trio ran amok on the basepaths, too.
Twins Sign Jonathan Schoop
6:40pm: Minnesota has issued a press release to announce the signing.
3:36pm: Free agent second baseman Jonathan Schoop is finalizing a one-year deal with the Minnesota Twins. The deal will be worth $7.5MM plus incentives, per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links). A physical has already been completed, he adds.
Schoop, 27, represents a high-upside play for the Twins on a team full of them. He joins fellow non-tender C.J. Cron in the infield, but the Twins also figure to give bounceback hopefuls Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano a chance to get their careers back on track. Schoop and Sano were both All-Stars in 2017 when Buxton won a Gold Glove and finished 18th in MVP voting (Schoop finished 12th). Production from all three cratered last season.
The former Orioles and Brewers second baseman was one of the more interesting free agents available given his on-field volatility. He disappointed in Milwaukee, managing a meager .202/.246/.331 with four home runs after he was acquired at the trade deadline — but it wasn’t that long ago that Schoop put up a 5.2 rWAR season in Baltimore. Schoop has three consecutive seasons of more than 20 home runs, including a career-high 32 dingers during that tremendous 2017 campaign with the Orioles.
Brewers GM David Stearns recently took responsibility for the deadline deal in a recent piece from Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The Brewers surrendered quite a bit of talent for what turned out to be only a half season of less-than-ideal contributions from Schoop, who lost playing time in the playoffs to regular third baseman Travis Shaw. The Brewers chose not to tender Schoop a contract rather than pay him the projected arbitration salary of $10.1MM.
Schoop will take only a small pay cut from the $8.5MM he earned last year, though his final earnings may, of course, change depending on the particulars of the incentives involved.
Astros Sign Robinson Chirinos
Dec.6: The Astros have now formally announced the signing, which brings their 40-man roster count to a total of 38 players.
Dec. 5: The deal is for $5.75MM, Rosenthal tweets.
Dec. 4, 4:31pm: Chirinos himself confirms to Mark Berman of FOX 26 that he has agreed to a one-year deal with the Astros and will be in Houston tomorrow to take a physical (Twitter link).
3:02pm: The Astros are closing in on a contract with free agent backstop Robinson Chirinos, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). A deal is “believed to be in place” and is pending a physical, he adds. Terms are not yet known. Chirinos is represented by MDR Sports Management.
Chirinos will join Max Stassi atop the Astros’ depth chart behind the plate and bring an offensive-minded profile to the table. The 34-year-old somewhat surprisingly had a $4.5MM option declined by the Rangers despite hitting a combined .233/.337/.456 with 54 homers in 1178 plate appearances as a Ranger over the past four seasons. Chirinos’ production did dip substantially in 2018 from a career year in 2017, but he was still a roughly league-average bat per park-adjusted metrics like OPS+ (97) and wRC+ (103).
That said, Chirinos doesn’t come with a strong defensive reputation. He’s thrown out 25 percent of opposing base thieves in his career but saw that mark fall to just 10 percent last season, and while he grades out well in terms of blocking pitches in the dirt, Baseball Prospectus has routinely graded him as a below-average framer — never more so than in 2018.
With each of Brian McCann, Martin Maldonado and Evan Gattis hitting free agency, the Astros had a clear need to add some catching help to pair with Stassi, who has yet to fully establish himself as a big league regular. The 27-year-old Stassi (28 in March) batted .226/.316/.394 with eight homers and 13 doubles in 2018. He’s prevented stolen bases at a roughly league-average clip and graded out as a premium framer, but he’s also never topped the 250 plate appearances the Astros gave him last season. Adding Chirinos to the fold will give Houston at least one additional catching option with notable big league experience.
Of course, it’s not out of the questions that the ‘Stros further add behind the plate. Houston has often carried three catching options in the past, with McCann, Gattis, Stassi and Maldonado all occupying space on the 40-man roster in various combinations at times.
Red Sox Re-Sign Nathan Eovaldi
4:22pm: The deal has been formally announced. Per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter), Eovaldi’s guarantee will actually be an even $68MM over the four-year term.
“We’re very happy to have Nathan back with us,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said in a press release. “He did a tremendous job for us last season, playing a significant role in helping us win the division and the World Series. His performance in the Postseason was outstanding, both as a starting pitcher and as a reliever.”
8:53am: The Red Sox have struck a deal to bring back righty Nathan Eovaldi, pending a physical, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The ACES client has secured a four-year, $67.5MM contract, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).
This was a match that MLBTR predicted in its listing of the top fifty MLB free agents. Frankly, that was one of the easier situations to predict, given Eovaldi’s stirring run for the World Series champs. MLBTR guessed Eovaldi would secure a $60MM guarantee over four years, a contract level that seemed quite ambitious at the time but has grown more and more plausible over the course of the winter.
Both the upside and the uncertainty that come with Eovaldi’s flamethrowing right arm are well-known. Having witnessed him up close for several months, concluding with a trial by fire on the game’s biggest stage, the Boston organization was well-placed to decide whether Eovaldi is worth the risk.
That’s not to say there weren’t other pursuers. Ultimately, the Astros, Phillies, Yankees, Brewers, Braves, Angels, White Sox, Blue Jays, Giants and Padres all reportedly had some level of involvement. That wide variety of suitors no doubt drove the bidding to heights that would have been all but unimaginable at the start of the 2018 season.
Once Patrick Corbin went off the board, the sprint for Eovaldi was on. Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, however, clearly had decided that Eovaldi was a top priority. With deep pockets and the allure of a repeat title run aiding his cause, Dombrowski was able to get his target after a final push last night.
If any team is situated to take another shot on Eovaldi, it’s certainly the Sox. He has twice undergone Tommy John surgery, needed another elbow procedure at the outset of the 2018 season, and only once has made over thirty starts in a MLB campaign. Eovaldi’s career ERA of 4.16, compiled over 850 total frames, speaks to his years of generally unfulfilled promise with the Dodgers, Marlins, and Yankees. Noted surgeon Dr. Christopher Ahmad provided an optimistic viewpoint on Eovaldi’s outlook, and fielding-independent pitching measures generally valued the righty above his results, but there’s no denying the risk that comes with this kind of background.
That said, the ceiling here is quite compelling. Eovaldi hasn’t even yet turned 29 and sustained an average heater of over 97 mph last year. While he was a bit homer-prone during his time to open the season with the Rays, which hurt his outcomes even as he otherwise showed compelling stuff, the seven-year MLB vet was excellent down the stretch in 2018. He ultimately tossed 54 regular season frames of 3.33 ERA ball with 8.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 for the Sox. Over the course of the full campaign, Eovaldi’s swinging-strike rate surged to a career-high 10.7% while he turned in a sturdy 45.6% groundball rate that sat just under his personal mean.
No doubt that late run boosted Eovaldi’s stock, but it was his postseason showing that cemented his status as a top free agent arm. Eovaldi ended up turning in 22 1/3 frames over the team’s three series. He was excellent every time he took the ball, whether as a starter, late-inning reliever, or long man. Eovaldi ended up permitting just four earned runs on 15 hits and three walks while racking up 16 strikeouts.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Twins, Ronald Torreyes Agree To One-Year Deal
Just moments after news came down of the Twins closing in on a one-year deal with second baseman Jonathan Schoop, Minnesota has announced the signing of another infielder, Ronald Torreyes to a one-year deal, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweeted. The team has announced the deal via a press release.
Fancred’s Jon Heyman adds (via Twitter) that the deal will be with $800k if Torreyes makes the Major League team. Dan Hayes of The Athletic further clarifies that it’s a split Major League contract for Torreyes, who does have a minor league option remaining (Twitter link).
Torreyes’ journey to Minnesota included a quick layover in Chicago, as the Cubs acquired and non-tendered the infielder within a three-day span in late November. Torreyes, 26, spent the last three seasons with the Yankees, slashing .280/.294/.370 in limited action with the big league club. For his career, the versatile infielder owns a .281/.310/.375 line across parts of four seasons. The Twins will likely look for more impactful production at the plate from Torreyes if he is to earn a consistent role at the Major League level. If he makes the club, he’ll pair with Ehire Adrianza to give the Twins a versatile couple of infielders off the bench.
Brandon Morrow Could Miss Opening Day After Elbow Surgery
Brandon Morrow underwent elbow surgery on November 6th that may keep him on the shelf beyond Opening Day, Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com was among those to tweet. It was a debridement arthroscopic surgery, or a “cleanup of cartilage,” Jordan Bastian of MLB.com added.
Morrow, 34, had a successful, if short, first season in Chicago. He finished the year with 22 saves and a sparkling 1. 47 ERA, but a biceps injury in mid-July forced him to the DL, effectively ending his season. Though news out of Cubs camp repeatedly teased a Morrow return, he never did make it back for the second half of the season.
The news is certainly a blow for the Cubs, who struggled to keep their bullpen healthy towards the end of 2018. Still, it likely does not change Theo Epstein’s plans for the winter all that much, as the plan even before the surgery was to very carefully manage Morrow’s innings load next season. Though they do not appear to be big spenders in free agency, the bullpen is one area where it would not surprise to see the Cubs add a player or two through free agency.
Morrow would be the presumptive closer for the Cubbies in 2019, though they were always going to need a couple of guys to close out games, given Morrow’s limitations. Pedro Strop is one of those arms, and he likely steps in as the ninth-inning guy if Morrow does indeed remain on the shelf through Opening Day. Strop, 33, took on closing duties for most of Morrow’s absence, going 6-1 with a 2.26 ERA while recording 13 saves, though he too struggled with injuries down the stretch after straining a hamstring while running to first base.
Morrow signed in Chicago after a resurgent 2017 campaign where he served as a dependable arm down the stretch for Dave Roberts’ Dodgers. He was especially effective in the NLCS, helping the Dodgers win the pennant by downing the Cubs before joining them in free agency. He enters 2019 on the second year of a two-year, $21MM guarantee. He earned $9MM in 2018 and is set to earn another $9MM in 2019. The deal includes a vesting option for 2020 worth $12MM or a $3MM buyout.
MLBTR Chat Transcript: Winter Meetings Preview
Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.
Boras: Kyler Murray “Has Every Intention” Of Playing For A’s
Recent top Athletics draft pick Kyler Murray is most famous for his role as a standout quarterback at the University of Oklahoma, but he already inked a $4.66MM deal to join the Oakland organization over the summer. Some whispers have circulated that Murray could be enticed by the NFL draft, where he might also be a first-round talent, but agent Scott Boras largely shot down that idea in a chat today with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
If Boras was not quite fully committing, he nevertheless did not leave much wiggle room for his client. “Kyler has every intention of fulfilling his agreement with the A’s,” said Boras, who adds that Murray “will be in Spring Training with the A’s” (as Fancred’s Jon Heyman indicated earlier this week, on Twitter).
That’s good news for the Oakland organization, which surprised many by taking Murray ninth overall. There is no questioning his immense athletic ability, of course, but the collegiate star is much more accomplished and polished on the gridiron — if only due to the fact that he has focused his attention to that higher-profile collegiate pursuit.
Notably, as Slusser explains, the A’s have a lot to lose if Murray changes his mind. While the club would get its money back, it wouldn’t receive a compensatory pick as occurs in situations where no agreement is consummated in the first place. As part of the initial deal with Murray, the Athletics organization agreed to allow him to finish out his career at OU.
Murray himself had raised a few eyebrows with recent comments in which he seemingly indicated there was still an opening for a football future. Certainly, his draft stock has risen after an immense season for the Sooners, though it still seems unlikely he’d be considered at the very top of the draft class due to his short stature. Regardless, Boras suggests that Murray’s words shouldn’t be parsed too closely. After all, he is being pressed with attention as he nears a potential Heisman Trophy.