Projecting Payrolls: Chicago White Sox
As we kick off the sixth installment of this series, here are links to the previous team payroll projections:
Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.
Today, we visit a rebuilding team that looks ready to take a big jump in 2019…0r maybe 2020: the Chicago White Sox.
Team Leadership
After making his fortune by perfecting real estate tax shelters, Jerry Reinsdorf purchased the White Sox for $19 million in 1981 four years prior to purchasing the Bulls. Dating to the time of his Bulls purchase, Reinsdorf has always been known to prefer baseball to basketball, though obviously his success with the Bulls has dwarfed his team’s success on the baseball diamond. However, his most recent championship did come via the White Sox who blitzed their way to a World Series win in 2005, going 11-1 in the playoffs to snap an 88-year title drought.
The baseball operations department has enjoyed incredible consistency over the last two decades. Executive Vice President Kenny Williams joined the organization in advance of the 1993 season, eventually working his way to the general manager job at the end of the 2000 season, at which time he added Rick Hahn to the front office. After 12 years on the job, Williams ascended to his current role, promoting Hahn to general manager where he serves to this day. Reinsdorf has a reputation for over-the-top loyalty — just ask Bulls fans about John Paxson and Gar Forman — and the continuity of the Williams-Hahn front office bears this out.
Historical Payrolls
Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the White Sox, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.
Whereas we’ve seen some robust numbers earlier in this series, the White Sox simply haven’t followed the rest of the league in increasing spending.
The first year in this chart featured a World Series winner that unsurprisingly led to a meaningful increase in spending over the next three years as it often does for a winning team. However, instead of employing regular payroll increases to continue staying competitive in the coming years following the World Series win, Reinsdorf instead largely stuck with payrolls between $90 million and $120 million excepting a spike in 2011.
Then the tank finally got cheap in 2018. Payroll cratered to just over $70 million and the record followed suit, dipping to 62-100, the worst White Sox record since 1970. Given the above, it is perhaps unsurprising that the Sox enter 2019 on a 10-year playoff drought.
While the White Sox certainly haven’t come close to the luxury tax threshold in recent years, their spending total for 2017 listed above doesn’t include a massive one-time expenditure in Latin America. While the club hasn’t been among the more aggressive teams when it comes to international amateur spending, they did give Cuban phenom Luis Robert a $26 million bonus in mid-2017 that came complete with a corresponding $26 million tax. That $52 million was a one-off expense and not the culmination of years of excess spending, but it must be considered when evaluating club spending over the past decade or so. If Robert’s bonus is allocated to 2017 payroll and the tax payment is allocated to 2018 payroll, the recent dips aren’t nearly as notable.
Future Liabilities
Giving the White Sox future liabilities section its own spreadsheet is almost comical (wait until we get to the Rays for high comedy). Here are the guaranteed future dollars with club options highlighted in peach.
There’s simply not much to see here. Castillo is a bridge catcher to get the organization to catcher-of-the-future and 2016 first round pick Zack Collins. Collins had a breakout year with the bat at Double-A in 2018, so he should be ready for the full-time gig in Chicago by 2019.
Jones has been a key cog in the White Sox bullpen for years, but he also comes with serious injury concerns. As a result, his contract occupies the middle ground between a closer-type and an injured middle reliever.
And then there’s Anderson, the former top pick with extreme athletic tools and a deeply frustrating inability to get on base. Anderson has hit 37 homers and stolen 41 bases over the past two seasons while playing a roughly average Major League caliber shortstop since his 2016 call to the Show. However, his .286 career on-base percentage has rendered him a decidedly below-average offensive player on the whole. The primary culprits? A 3.4 percent career walk rate against a 26 percent career strikeout rate. If he manages to either curb the strikeouts or kick up the walks above his career-high five percent from 2018, Anderson may yet turn into a plus regular. If he doesn’t, he’ll remain a roughly average starting Big League shortstop who leaves talent evaluators and fans wondering why he never took then next step toward star-level production.
A more significant amount of White Sox talent can be found in the arbitration table. Chicago did non-tender Danny Farquhar, whose recovery from a brain aneurysm figures to be one of the great baseball stories of 2018 and possibly 2019 as well if he completes his comeback to the field. Farquhar was cleared to play last week. Here are their arbitration projections (salary projections by MLBTR and Matt Swartz):
Abreu burst onto the scene with an explosive 2014 debut, blasting 36 homers and reaching base at a sparkling .383 clip. He hasn’t repeated that offensive success in subsequent years, but he had durability on his side until 2018, playing at least 145 games each year from 2014-17 before slipping to 128 last year, and his worst career wRC+ is 114. Abreu is an offensive positive, but in recent years, it has been unclear whether he’ll be a force or merely above average.
Garcia came to the White Sox at the 2013 deadline in a deal that sent shortstop Jose Iglesias to Detroit and landed starter Jake Peavy in Boston. It’s hard to see his career to date as anything other than a massive disappointment. Since his 2012 debut and excluding the 2017 season, Garcia has produced exactly 0.0 WAR over 1,936 plate appearances. Ah, but that 2017 year. Garcia rode a .392 BABIP to a 137 wRC+ and an appearance in the All-Star Game. His 2017 success wasn’t replicated in 2018 as hamstring and knee injuries limited him to 93 games and a dreadful .281 on-base percentage. He underwent knee surgery shortly after the season ended in early October. What his 2019 will look like is anyone’s guess.
After showing awful offensive production in pieces of three seasons from 2014-16, Sanchez produced decently at the plate in 2017-18, allowing his plus defensive profile at second and third base to shine, making him a surprising average regular.
After being selected third overall in 2014 draft, Rodon zoomed to the Majors, making 23 starts in 2015. He made 28 more in 2016, exhibiting above-average ability in both seasons. In 2017, the injury bug bit the big lefty and it hasn’t left him yet. 2019 will be an essential year in his development.
Defensive metrics despise Davidson’s glovework and he has struggled to get on base with regularity in the Majors, posting a .295 on-base percentage to date. However, he has launched 46 homers over the past two years and showed adequate on-base ability in 2018, reaching at a .319 clip…and he struck out Giancarlo Stanton. Wait, what? Davidson made three pitching appearances this past season, working with a low-90s fastball and both a slider and a curveball. Perhaps thanks in part to Shohei Ohtani, the White Sox and Davidson himself both envision him as a two-way player in 2019.
Finally, the diminutive Garcia has managed to stick around despite career marks of a .280 on-base percentage and a .102 ISO. He does play numerous defensive positions, perhaps explaining his continued role.
What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?
Hahn and Reinsdorf have refrained from making explicit declarations that the White Sox will spend big, but for those interested in reading tea leaves, the indications are there. While Hahn has repeatedly indicated that the team will continue to focus on its future and long-term building, the team is “fully aware there are needs [they] need to address in the coming weeks and months,” adding that the financial flexibility that the team has accumulated in recent years will be used “this offseason or next.” Given what sources have relayed to Jon Heyman, the Sox are ready to take their step forward now.
Are the White Sox a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?
Despite indications that the White Sox are going to exercise some financial might this winter, genuine interest in Harper and/or Machado would be an unheard of step for the organization. Although Hahn has been quick to point out that the deal wasn’t the largest offered in team history, it nonetheless speaks volumes that Jose Abreu‘s $68 million guarantee is the biggest commitment made to an individual White Sox player in club history. The jump from $68 million to perhaps a figure $300 million higher would be a stunning leap. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes pointed out earlier this month, the Sox did once sign Albert Belle to the largest contract in baseball history. A fair portion of MLBTR’s readership had not yet been born when that deal was struck in 1996.
This is a club that is ready for a splashy addition, they have the financial wherewithal to do so, and these two players are both generational talents who are available now, not in a future offseason. The White Sox will be players for each member of this young pair — though not a threat to sign both — as they look to improve, but for a team that has never shown a penchant to carry a top-of-the-market payroll, it’s tough to see a fit absent a cultural shift.
What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?
The standard disclaimer: ownership and management knows the actual budget whereas we’re focusing on historical data and other relevant factors to project future spending in the immediate and more distant years to come.
It remains to be seen if this winter will be the one in which the White Sox take a major financial plunge. Their best young pitcher, Michael Kopech, will miss the 2019 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and their prized elite young bat, outfielder Eloy Jimenez, has yet to debut. Few would fault the team for waiting another year and taking the big step forward next offseason when Kopech will return, fellow top young righty Dylan Cease should have debuted, Collins will likely be ready at catcher, Jimenez will have a year — or perhaps 171 days of service time — under his belt, top youngster Yoan Moncada will have had another year of development, Robert should be ready, and the club can make a long-term decision on Abreu.
Then again, it has been a decade since the White Sox made the playoffs. Their closest American League Central finish in the last six years was finishing 16 1/2 games back of Cleveland in 2016. They’re well past due for a winner on the South Side.
Assuming that the team keeps its six arbitration eligible players, they’re slated for a laughably low payroll of just $58.9 million as of the start of the offseason. There’s no chance that payroll will remain this low.
Given that recent top-10 pick Carson Fulmer appears to have washed out and that elite righty prospect Lucas Giolito has struggled mightily, the Sox could set the market for somebody like Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel, forcing either lefty’s hand with a economic argument made in order to secure a much-needed stabilizer for the team’s rotation.
I expect that the White Sox will wield their financial might to sign somebody for a guarantee larger than the $68 million given to Abreu. If Reinsdorf and Hahn elect to flip the switch from rebuild to contention this winter, payroll will likely jolt back to the $115-120 million territory. If instead they elect to inch ahead in the rebuild, focusing on 2020 as their year to make a big move, payroll will likely only continue the climb toward previous levels. I predict that they’ll take the second track, one that will still leave them with plenty of cash with which to make a couple of meaningful additions before another significant jump next year.
Projected 2019 Payroll: $100 million
Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $41.1 million
White Sox Claim Ian Clarkin Off Waivers From Cubs
The White Sox announced that they’ve claimed left-hander Ian Clarkin off waivers from the Cubs. It’s a quick turnaround move by the ChiSox, who only last week lost Clarkin on waivers to the Cubs.
Clarkin, 24 in February, was the No. 33 pick by the Yankees in the 2013 draft but went from the Yanks to the Sox in the 2017 David Robertson/Tommy Kahnle swap. The 2018 season was an ugly one for Clarkin, however, as he was hit hard in 68 Double-A innings. In 18 appearances (10 starts) at that level he posted a 4.98 ERA and averaged just 4.6 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9.
It remains to be seen if he’ll stick on the 40-man roster throughout the winter this time around, but the White Sox have now acquired Clarkin from outside their organization on two separate occasions, so they clearly see plenty to like in the former first-rounder.
Braves Designate Ricardo Sanchez For Assignment
The Braves announced Monday that they’ve designated left-hander Ricardo Sanchez for assignment in order to open a spot on the roster for Brian McCann, whose return to Atlanta is now official.
Atlanta originally acquired Sanchez, now 21, back in the 2015 deal that sent third baseman Kyle Kubitza to the Angels. While the lefty ascended to the Double-A level for the first time this past season, he managed just a 4.06 ERA a 44-to-24 K/BB ratio in 57 1/3 innings at that level in 2018. In parts of five minor league seasons, Sanchez has a 4.48 ERA with 8.1 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9 in the minors.
Yankees Claim Parker Bridwell, Designate Ronald Torreyes For Assignment
The Yankees announced Monday that they’ve claimed right-hander Parker Bridwell off waivers from the Angels and designated utility infielder Ronald Torreyes for assignment.
Bridwell, 27, could potentially give the Yanks some rotation depth. He’s only a season removed from 121 innings of 3.64 ERA ball with the 2017 Halos, though his secondary metrics never made that output appear sustainable. Bridwell averaged just 5.4 strikeouts per nine innings pitched that season and stranded nearly 80 percent of the runners allowed — neither of which are conducive to long-term success. Bridwell is also out of minor league options, so he’ll have to be carried on the 40-man roster all winter and break camp with the team in 2019 or else once again be exposed to waivers.
New York may well plan to try to sneak Bridwell through waivers themselves, as he’s already been passed up on by most of the teams in MLB. League-specific waiver priority applies in August but not the offseason, meaning that every team but the Astros and Red Sox passed on claiming Bridwell.
Obviously, the addition of Bridwell does nothing to limit the Yankees’ continued approach to add to the rotation this winter. New York has already added a pair of starters in trading for James Paxton and re-signing CC Sabathia, but there’s still an additional need in the rotation — especially once Sonny Gray is inevitably traded — and the Yanks will continue to be tied to several of the top names on both the trade and free-agent markets.
The versatile Torreyes has been a usable utility piece for the Yankees over the past three seasons, though his OBP dropped to an unpalatable .294 last season. He’s a .281/.308/.374 hitter in his three seasons in Yankee Pinstripes and has seen action at second base, third base, shortstop and in right field.
Royals Claim Conner Greene, Designate Burch Smith For Assignment
The Royals announced that they’ve claimed right-hander Conner Greene off waivers from the Cardinals. He’d been designated for assignment last week. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, Kansas City designated righty Burch Smith for assignment.
Greene, 23, was acquired alongside Dominic Leone in last offseason’s Randal Grichuk trade. The former seventh-round pick’s longstanding control issues didn’t improve in his lone season with the Cards, as Greene walked 63 batters in 88 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. He hasn’t had much success in the minors since the 2016 season, but the Royals will hope that another change of scenery brings about more favorable results in 2019.
The 28-year-old Smith was one of two Rule 5 picks carried on the roster by the Royals for the entire 2018 season, but his results paled in comparison to those of fellow Rule 5-er Brad Keller. In 78 innings, Smith limped to a 6.92 ERA, and while he averaged nearly a strikeout per inning, he also averaged 4.6 walks per nine innings pitched. Smith’s ability to miss bats has long been intriguing, but his career has been slowed by control issues and injury troubles — most notably Tommy John surgery.
Braves Sign Brian McCann
2:07pm: The Braves announced that they’ve signed McCann to a one-year deal worth $2MM. As agent B.B. Abbott explained to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links), McCann’s priority this winter was to return to Atlanta.
1:08pm: It’s a one-year deal for McCann, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi.
12:56pm: The Braves have agreed to terms on a contract with free-agent catcher Brian McCann, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com (via Twitter). It’ll be a homecoming for the Jet Sports client, who is from the Atlanta area and spent the first nine seasons of his Major League career as the Braves’ primary catcher.
McCann, 35 in February, signed a five-year, $80MM contract with the Yankees prior to the 2014 season and spent three years in the Bronx before being traded to the Astros in the 2016-17 offseason. After a solid first season in Houston that saw McCann hit .241/.323/.436 with 18 home runs and win a World Series ring, the 2018 season proved difficult for the veteran receiver. McCann slashed just .212/.301/.339 through 216 plate appearances. Injury troubles plagued McCann throughout the year — most notably a knee issue that required surgical repair over the summer.
In his return tour with Atlanta, McCann figures to share time behind the dish with 33-year-old Tyler Flowers. The pair could form a fairly straightforward platoon, as McCann has remained rather productive against right-handed pitching even into his mid-30s (with the exception of this past season’s injury-marred results). Flowers, meanwhile, has been a nuisance for left-handed pitchers, hitting them at a .278/.387/.444 clip over the past five seasons. The exact division of labor behind the plate may not even be fully determined until Spring Training, however.
Despite his knee troubles, McCann still managed to halt 32 percent of stolen-base attempts against him in 2018. He’s long been considered a plus pitch framer, though he graded out below average in that regard last season, per Baseball Prospectus. His blocking numbers, too, have declined in recent seasons. For the Braves, though, the hope will be that better health and perhaps a lighter workload can help McCann restore some of his offensive and defensive prowess. At the very least, he’ll bring nearly a decade and a half of experience working with pitchers to a young Atlanta rotation — an asset in which Braves decision-makers assuredly see plenty of value.
Mets Claim Jordan Patterson From Rockies
The Mets announced Monday that they’ve claimed outfielder/first baseman Jordan Patterson off waivers from the Rockies. The Mets’ 40-man roster is now at 39 players.
Patterson, 27, hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2016 but has enjoyed plenty of success in Triple-A to this point in his career. In parts of three seasons, the left-handed-hitting Patterson is a .282/.363/.516 hitter with Triple-A Albuquerque, though Mets fans should be plenty familiar with the caveat that the Pacific Coast League is an immensely hitter-friendly environment. Defensively, Patterson has nearly 3200 innings in right field, more than 2000 innings at first base and more than 300 innings in left field.
Twins Claim C.J. Cron
The Twins announced that they’ve claimed first baseman C.J. Cron off waivers from the Rays. Cron was designated for assignment by Tampa Bay last week despite a 30-homer campaign in 2018, and he’s now among the top candidates to see action for the Twins at first base and designated hitter in 2019. Minnesota’s 40-man roster is now at 39 players.
It’s not yet clear whether Cron will represent the Twins’ lone addition at first base/designated hitter this season following the retirement of Joe Mauer, but the fact that he was claimed at all makes it seem likely that they’ll tender him a contract this offseason. (The non-tender deadline looms on Friday.) Cron has ample experience at first base and has received slightly above-average marks there from both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating across the past three seasons combined.
Of course, Cron’s real calling card is right-handed power. The 28-year-old (29 in January) hit .253/.323/.493 with 30 homers, 28 doubles and a triple in 560 plate appearances for Tampa Bay this past season. The Rays, though, as they did with Corey Dickerson an offseason prior, elected to designate a fairly productive hitter for assignment in part due to salary concerns and in part because they undoubtedly believe the market will ultimately yield comparable production at a lesser price. Corner bats with limited defensive value haven’t been rewarded in free agency in recent years, and the Rays could either find a more affordable alternative or could simply go with in-house options like Jake Bauers, Ji-Man Choi or Nathaniel Lowe.
Cron is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.2MM in 2019, making him a reasonably affordable add for Minnesota. Cron is controlled not only through 2019 but also through the 2020 season, so he could potentially be a multi-year piece for Minnesota if the organization is pleased with his 2019 output. Cron should have a fairly easy transition from Tampa Bay to Minnesota, weather not withstanding, as he’s plenty familiar with rookie manager Rocco Baldelli, who was on the Rays’ coaching staff last season as the team’s Major League field coordinator.
While the claim doesn’t technically mean that the Twins are committing a 2019 roster spot to Cron — he could still be non-tendered — it does seem likely that he’s now firmly in the team’s plans. That furthers the likelihood that outfielder/designated hitter Robbie Grossman, who projects to earn $4MM next season, will be non-tendered before Friday’s deadline. Minnesota could yet make some additions to the first base/DH mix next season and could potentially still add a third baseman as well, depending on the organization’s plans for Miguel Sano. A move across the diamond to first has been rumored for Sano, or the organization could simply choose to rotate the slugger between both corner infield slots and designated hitter next season.
Padres Outright Allen Cordoba, Release Colin Rea
The Padres announced that infielder Allen Cordoba has been sent outright to Triple-A El Paso after clearing waivers. Right-hander Colin Rea, who also cleared waivers, has been released by the organization. San Diego also formally announced the previously reported releases of Cory Spangenberg and Christian Villanueva, the latter of whom is headed to Japan’s Yomiuri Giants on a one-year deal.
Cordoba, 22, was a Rule 5 pick by the Padres back in 2016 and stuck on the 2017 roster all season despite the fact that he’d never played a game above the Rookie-level Applachian League. Unsurprisingly, his struggles in the big leagues were immense; Cordoba hit just .208/.282/.297 through 227 trips to the plate. He’s yet to recover from the sizable jump up the development ladder, it seems, as he managed just a .206/.233/.310 slash in an admittedly small sample of 145 PAs at the Class-A Advanced level in 2018. He’ll remain with the Padres despite being removed from the 40-man roster, which in many ways is a good outcome for San Diego. While the Friars surely hoped for better production in the minors once he was eligible to be optioned, they can now continue to develop the Panamanian shortstop without a dedicated 40-man spot.
As for Rea, the right-hander hasn’t pitched in the Majors since 2016. San Diego sent him to the Marlins in a controversial trade involving Andrew Cashner and Luis Castillo. Rea made one appearance in Miami before it was learned that he’d require Tommy John surgery, and the Marlins and trades worked out an agreement to send Rea back to San Diego in exchange for Luis Castillo (who later went on to be traded to Cincinnati for Dan Straily).
Rea, now 28, didn’t pitch at all in 2017 as he rehabbed from surgery. He returned to the mound in 2018 but didn’t find any success in Double-A or Triple-A, limping to a combined 5.73 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 1.67 HR/9 and a roughly 41 percent ground-ball rate in 75 1/3 innings. Prior to his elbow surgery, Rea totaled 134 1/3 big league innings between San Diego and his lone Marlins appearance, working to a 4.69 ERA with a 106-to-55 K/BB ratio. His career 4.35 FIP is a bit more favorable, but both xFIP (4.55) and SIERA (4.67) are right in line with his career earned run average.
Rea has two-plus years of MLB service time, so if a new organization can get him back on track, he’d come with another four seasons of MLB control. Presumably, he’ll draw interest on minor league deals from pitching-needy organizations this winter.
Latest On Paul Goldschmidt, Zack Greinke
The Phillies and Diamondbacks had recent talks about a trade centered around Paul Goldschmidt, tweets Jayson Stark of The Athletic, but talks crumbled when the Phils tried to include Carlos Santana in the deal. Right-hander Zach Eflin was one of multiple younger players discussed as part of a potential return for Arizona, per Stark.
It’s somewhat of a surprise to see the Phils linked to Goldschmidt. A significant driving factor behind Philadelphia’s effort to move Santana, after all, is to open at-bats for Rhys Hoskins to return to first base. Acquiring Goldschmidt would likely mean that Hoskins would remain in left field, where he ranked as one of the game’s worst defenders at any position. Then again, the Phillies are known to be casting a wide net in an effort to improve at virtually any area of the roster, and plugging Goldschmidt in at first base would make for an immensely improved lineup, even if it meant another year of Hoskins in left field.
Goldschmidt, 31, enjoyed yet another brilliant season in 2018, hitting .290/.389/.533 with 33 home runs, 35 doubles and five triples. Perennially one of the game’s premier bats, Goldschmidt is owed $14.5MM in 2019 before he’ll reach the open market and become a free agent for the first time in his career next winter. That lack of club control, the presumably enormous cost of an extension and a crowded Diamondbacks payroll have all combined to create the possibility that Arizona moves the face of its franchise this winter.
Turning to another potential suitor, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Cards have talked to the D-backs about a trade for Goldschimdt. As Goold explores in great detail, the slugger checks several boxes — the Cards prefer to trade for a bat rather than sign one and are especially interested in corner infielders — but there are question marks as well. He’d only add to a deluge of right-handed bats in the St. Louis lineup, for example, and there is of course no guarantee he’d be willing to sign an extension — something the Cards would be likely to pursue.
While Goldschmidt is the best player the D-backs could move this winter, he’s hardly the only high-profile candidate to change hands. Zack Greinke, too, has emerged as a potential trade candidate, though circumstances surrounding the two are quite different. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that while the D-backs want young players or prospects back in any Goldschmidt deal — hence the mention of Eflin in Stark’s report — the primary motivation in trading Greinke would be to escape the burden of the three years and $104.5MM remaining on his contract (which includes his annual salaries and a trio of $3MM payouts as part of an $18MM signing bonus that was spread out evenly over the duration of the contract). Greinke’s six-year, $206.5MM contract is the largest ever in terms of average annual value and was signed by the previous front-office regime in Arizona. At 35 years of age, the right-hander is still a highly effective pitcher, but it’s understandable that as payroll has risen beyond the organization’s comfort level, the new-look front office is hoping to unload some of that financial burden.
It’s natural to suggest that the D-backs could try to kill two birds with one stone by trading Goldschmidt and Greinke in one franchise-altering blockbuster. Attaching a player of Goldschmidt’s caliber to Greinke’s contract would hold appeal for an acquiring team, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported this morning (subscription required) that the D-backs aren’t interested in watering down a return on Goldschmidt by packaging him with Greinke. Rosenthal, in fact, notes that Cardinals already had internal discussions about attempting a trade to acquire both, but they’re cognizant of the fact that they’re on Greinke’s 15-team no-trade list. Goold tweets that the Cardinals’ inclusion on Greinke’s no-trade list is tied to geographic preferences.
It should be pointed out, too, that while Greinke’s contract is somewhat onerous, it’s not the albatross that many might think. The veteran righty has topped 200 innings in consecutive seasons with virtually identical ERAs of 3.20 and 3.21 to go along with above-average strikeout rates, elite control and solid ground-ball tendencies. Were he a free agent, Greinke would still command significant interest on a multi-year deal and would likely be regarded alongside the likes of Dallas Keuchel as perhaps the second or third-best arm available.
He likely wouldn’t top $100MM in total guarantees, but there’s a very real argument that Greinke command $20MM+ annually on a three-year deal — as Jake Arrieta did last winter. Arrieta, of course, was a three years younger at the time than Greinke is now, but he was also coming off a worse season. And given the fact that the soon-to-be 39-year-old Rich Hill is entering the third season of a three-year free-agent contract, there’s recent precedent of a pitcher in his mid-to-late 30s securing a three-year guarantee. The exact valuation of Greinke will vary from team to team, but his contract may “only” an overpay of around $30-35MM relative to what he could realistically seek on the open market.