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Sandy Alderson Suggests Mets Will Likely Retain Matt Harvey For 2018

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Despite the increasingly worrying health issues and pitching struggles of former Mets ace Matt Harvey, the club isn’t ready to give up on his talent. As GM Sandy Alderson tells Mike Puma of the New York Post, “it’s high unlikely that we’re not going to bring [Harvey] back next year.”

Harvey is still just 28 years old and isn’t far removed from being one of the game’s most dominant starters. If there was concern when he limped to a 4.86 ERA in 17 starts last year, though, it’s all the more pressing now that he has surrendered 6.59 earned per nine through the same number of outings in the current season.

The enigmatic righty has averaged less than five frames per start while managing only 6.6 K/9 against an uncharacteristic 4.5 BB/9. He has seen his velocity waver over the course of the season (with an average that’s down one mph from last year and two mph from the prior season). And his swinging-strike rate has plummeted to 7.5% and yet more arm problems have arisen during the year.

Despite all that, New York evidently sees value in tendering Harvey a contract in his final year of arbitration eligibility. And that’s really not surprising. Harvey will get at least a marginal raise on this year’s $5.125MM arb salary, but the bill will remain well within range of the one-year guarantees that other interesting bounceback type pitchers command in free agency.

While there’s some risk in paying Harvey, notes Puma, there’s probably even greater risk to the front office if it lets him find his form elsewhere. And it isn’t as if the team can’t use the possible innings that Harvey will be expected to provide; talent and uncertainty abound in the rest of the staff, too.

For now, Alderson says, the club will “keep running him out there and see what happens.” It seems that’ll be the approach in 2018 as well — so long as the Mets don’t find a surprise trade and Harvey shows enough promise in camp that he isn’t cut loose to avoid fully guaranteeing his arb payout.

Rays Outright Danny Espinosa

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The Rays have outrighted infielder Danny Espinosa, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). His 40-man roster spot will go to lefty Xavier Cedeno, who is set to be activated from the 60-day DL.

Espinosa, 30, saw limited action in Tampa Bay late in the season after a brief stop with the Mariners. He spent the first half of the year receiving regular time with the Angels — who acquired him from the Nationals over the offseason — but never came around at the plate. All told, the eight-year MLB veteran has stumbled to a .173/.245/.278 batting line this year.

The switch-hitting Espinosa has never consistently produced at the plate, though he delivers a good bit of home run power for a middle infielder and has posted several seasons of near-average hitting despite his swing-and-miss proclivities. He’s a gifted up-the-middle defender and good baserunner, though, so he doesn’t have to hit all that much to be useful.

Clearly, though, the offensive struggles this year were so significant that it was hard for Espinosa to hold down a roster spot. It’s perhaps still conceivable he could land a guaranteed deal for 2018, though odds are he’ll have to settle for a minor-league deal and a chance to earn a job with an infield-needy team in camp.

Blue Jays Still Looking To Add Starters This Winter

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Even after locking up righty Marco Estrada to a one-year extension, the Blue Jays are planning to pursue starters over the offseason, GM Ross Atkins tells Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). Toronto aims to line up eight or nine hurlers capable of taking the ball in the majors, Atkins says.

If it wasn’t clear already that the Jays won’t be entering a rebuilding phase, the move yesterday to re-up Estrada for $13MM seemingly decides the matter. Toronto already has about $90MM committed after that contract hit the books, and will zoom quickly past $100MM as it settles out some significant arbitration cases — including Josh Donaldson, Marcus Stroman, Kevin Pillar, and Roberto Osuna.

Given the array of commitments, it makes sense that the Jays won’t stop with the return of Estrada. Four rotation jobs are locked up already, presuming health, with Estrada re-joining Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, and J.A. Happ. Beyond that, though, there are some questions.

Joe Biagini failed to run with his rotation opportunity this year but remains an option. Toronto has received good innings of from summer acquisition Tom Koehler in a relief role, but he’d be a risky tender given his $5.75MM salary this year and struggles from the Marlins’ rotation. Brett Anderson has had some quality outings down the stretch, though he’ll be a free agent (and was bombed tonight). As Steve Adams noted in discussing the Sanchez signing, youngster Ryan Borucki has flown up the system this year, though it might be optimistic to expect him to take a job out of camp.

It’ll be interesting to see what kind of hurler the Jays end up pursuing. The club could compete the job between in-house options and some non-guaranteed or cheaper veterans. Alternatively, it might promise the fifth slot as a means of drawing in a preferred player. If there’s more willingness to spend, perhaps Toronto could go somewhat bigger for a mid-range starter, as it did in its most recent contracts with Estrada and Happ.

Padres Extend Clayton Richard

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The Padres have announced an extension with lefty Clayton Richard, who had been slated to return to free agency. It’s a two-year deal with a $6MM guarantee and “minor” incentives, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell reports on Twitter.

Sep 7, 2017; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Clayton Richard (3) pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Since signing a one-year, $1.75MM deal over the winter, the 34-year-old Richard has operated as a full-time starter for the first time since 2012. While he carries only a 4.82 ERA, some underlying metrics suggest he has deserved better. Richard has recorded 6.6 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 to go with a stellar 59.1% groundball rate. He has likely been at least a bit unfortunate to surrender a .348 batting average on balls put in play against him. And while Richard has been hurt by the long ball — he’s coughing up dingers on 19.7% of the flyballs hit against him — he has typically fared much better in that regard.

It’s uncertain whether Richard can sustain his promising showing, but he seems like a pretty reasonable pitcher to take a slight risk on. Richard’s two-seamer has averaged 90.7 mph, not far off his career average. And he has maintained last year’s surge in swinging-strike rate despite becoming a full-time starter; his 8.3% mark sits well above his 7.2% career level. Richard was quite productive while working mostly as a reliever in 2016 and certainly has shown an ability to succeed as a starter in the past; he posted sub-4.00 earned run averages for the Pads in that role in the 2010-12 seasons. Of course, Richard also has a history of shoulder problems that required surgical treatment.

For the Pads, locking up Richard now accounts for another rotation spot heading into the 2018 season. Youngsters Luis Perdomo and Dinelson Lamet seem quite likely to remain in the MLB staff and Travis Wood could still be an option despite his struggles. But with Jhoulys Chacin heading back to free agency, the Pads were looking at filling at least two openings.

Even with today’s move, the team could still add two rotation pieces over the offseason. Last year’s pursuit of budget-friendly veterans could be reprised; really, the Friars did quite well with Richard, Chacin, and Trevor Cahill, even if Jered Weaver proved to be a miss.

Whether or not it’ll make sense for the Padres to keep Richard in the rotation throughout the life of the deal will have to be seen. But he could have plenty of function regardless. The veteran southpaw could always slide back into a long relief or situational lefty role if others ultimately prove to be better starting options.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Jimmy Nelson Underwent Labrum Procedure, Will Miss Time In 2018

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The shoulder procedure performed today on Brewers righty Jimmy Nelson ended up being somewhat more extensive than had been hoped. While there was optimism that surgeons would not find a need to repair Nelson’s labrum, they did end up needing to do some tissue work, GM David Stearns told reporters including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (via Twitter).

As a result, it is now expected that Nelson will miss “a chunk” of the 2018 season, per Stearns. Just how long the key righty will be sidelined isn’t yet known and will surely depend upon his rehab progress. Regardless, Milwaukee will need to plan on alternatives to fill the rotation to start the year.

Losing Nelson for any chunk of time constitutes a blow for the Brewers, putting a damper on an otherwise exciting season. The club has plenty of intriguing young pitchers, and could still decide to retain Matt Garza for depth, but Nelson had emerged as a force and can’t realistically be replaced. It’s possible that the Brewers will still mostly look to internal options to fill out the staff early next season, though it’s also conceivable that the injury could spur Stearns to look into ways to bolster the rotation over the offseason.

Unfortunately, the news also clouds Nelson’s long-term outlook. Labrum tears are among the most worrying injuries that a pitcher can suffer, as we discussed recently with regard to Angels right-hander Alex Meyer — who is expected to miss a full year of action. There is perhaps some added optimism here, McCalvy notes on Twitter, because the injury occurred to a different area of the labrum than is typically the case for tears caused by throwing.

Despite the unfortunate news, Nelson should take home a significant first-time arbitration salary after topping 170 innings in each of the past three seasons — and carrying a 3.49 ERA with 199 strikeouts in 2017. Of course, time missed in the season to come will reduce his ability to earn in the future, though at this point the focus will be on simply getting the 28-year-old back to full health.

Latest On Michael Brantley

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The Indians have updated the medical situation of key outfielder Michael Brantley in a team announcement (via Jordan Bastian of MLB.com, on Twitter). While the door still seems at least theoretically open to a return at some point in the postseason, it’s now apparent that Brantley won’t make it back before the end of the regular season.

A recent examination revealed that Brantley has both a “deltoid ligament sprain” and “right ankle synovitis” — injuries which have kept him out since early August. He has been running on a specialized treadmill that keeps weight off of the lower extremities, but has yet to run on flat ground. Now, Brantley will rest for seven to ten days before he’s looked at again to see if he can begin to run.

Clearly, there’s no way Brantley will be cleared to play in a baseball game over the next ten days, meaning he’s not going to appear before the postseason. Presumably, he’ll require at least some ramp up time before the club would trust a postseason roster spot to him, too, making it seem quite unlikely that he’d be prepared to appear in the ALDS. Beyond that, should the club advance, it’s anyone’s guess.

The news means that the Indians won’t welcome back a key contributor as soon as had been hoped. Cleveland has played well without him — and that’s quite the understatement — but would no doubt prefer to plug in Brantley’s quality bat in left field. The loss stings all the more with youngster Bradley Zimmer also on the shelf.

AL Central Notes: Kinsler, Royals, Twins, Avisail

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Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler tells MLB.com’s Jon Morosi that he intends to sit down the general manager Al Avila in the next couple of days to discuss his future with the team (all Twitter links). The 35-year-old Kinsler says his willingness to waive his partial no-trade clause will be dependent on what Avila tells about the team’s planned offseason direction, as a return to the postseason is his priority. The Tigers appear to be dead-set on rebuilding, having traded the likes of Justin Verlander, Justin Upton, Justin Wilson, Alex Avila and Cameron Maybin in the past 10 months. Kinsler, then, stands out as one of the most obvious trade candidates of the offseason as he heads into the final year of his contract.

More from the American League Central…

  • Royals general manager Dayton Moore tells MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan that he’s prepared for many to second-guess the front office’s decision not to sell off short-term pieces at the trade deadline. “It’s a fair question,” said Moore, though he pointed to the Royals’ July surge as rationale for the moves. Indeed, as Flanagan points out, Kansas City was 2.5 games out of the division lead and was in possession of a Wild Card spot on July 30. Moore tells Flanagan that following the current season, the Royals will “do everything we can” to compete for wins in 2018 and for player acquisitions in the offseason. That doesn’t sound like the Royals are planning on any sort of rebuild with much of its core hitting the open market, though Moore likely wouldn’t tip his hand at this point even if that were the direction in which the Royals are leaning.
  • With the Twins in the thick of a Wild Card race, Michael Rand of the Minneapolis Star Tribune takes a look at the first season of work from new front-office tandem Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. Rand notes that the team’s show of faith in in-house young talent like Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler and Jose Berrios has proven to be shrewd, as as their emphasis on improving catcher defense and adding high-character veterans. The Twins, however, failed to sufficiently address the bullpen despite it being a clear point of need this winter, Rand opines, and the decision to tender lefty Hector Santiago for $8MM looks especially questionable with the benefit of hindsight.
  • White Sox outfielder/DH Avisail Garcia tells Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times that he hopes to remain with the club even through the rebuilding phase. The 26-year-old can become a free agent following the 2019 season and is in the midst of a breakout campaign, however, making him a fairly logical offseason trade candidate. Van Schouwen also spoke with ChiSox hitting coach Todd Steverson about Garcia’s improvements this season, getting his take on what has helped Garcia break out. Through 519 plate appearances, Garcia is hitting .333/.382/.504 with 17 homers, 23 doubles and four triples.

Blue Jays Extend Marco Estrada Through 2018

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It’s been previously reported on multiple occasions that the Blue Jays and right-hander Marco Estrada had mutual interest in a reunion, and that interest came to fruition on Wednesday. The 34-year-old Estrada, who was slated to hit free agency at season’s end, will instead forgo that opportunity in order to return to the Jays on a one-year, $13MM extension, the team announced. Estrada is represented by TWC Sports.

Marco Estrada | Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY SportsIt’s been an up-and-down season for Estrada, who stormed out of the gates with a 3.15 ERA, 10.2 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 through his first 11 starts before falling into a prolonged slump. Estrada would go on to yield 43 earned runs over his next 40 2/3 innings (nine starts) before once again largely righting the ship. In his past 11 outings, Estrada has turned in 3.74 ERA with 7.0 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9.

On the whole, Estrada’s ERA hasn’t fully recovered from the brutal stretch of starts spanning June to mid-July. He’s sitting on a 4.84 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.48 HR/9 and a 29.7 percent ground-ball rate. That grounder rate is the lowest of his career — a dangerous pairing with his lofty HR/9 rate. However, Estrada’s 31 starts are already a career-high, and he seems likely to top his previous career-high of 181 innings in 2017 as well. That’s no small feat for a player that was slowed tremendously in 2016 by a herniated disk in his back.

Estrada will slot back into the starting five behind Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez and J.A. Happ next season, as the Jays hope for better health from their rotation (specifically, Sanchez and Happ). There’s no clear in-house option for the fifth slot in the rotation, as righty Joe Biagini has struggled in his first chance as a big league starter. Prospect Ryan Borucki posted quality numbers across three minor league levels, and veteran Brett Anderson has looked sharp in four starts as he auditions for a 2018 job. If none of those options entice president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins, the Jays will have myriad options from which to choose on the offseason free-agent market and trade market.

It’s been a disappointing overall year for the Jays, who opened the season with just one win in their first 10 games and never fully recovered. However, despite their poor performance, the Blue Jays never seemed intent to listen to trade offers for anyone controlled beyond the 2017 season. While Josh Donaldson and J.A. Happ drew plenty of trade speculation, the Blue Jays indicated that their intent is to field a contending team in 2018. Their lone trades involved Francisco Liriano (whose contract they ate, along with that of Nori Aoki, in order to effectively purchase young outfielder Teoscar Hernandez from the Astros) and setup man Joe Smith — both impending free agents.

Estrada, like Liriano and Smith, was set to be a free agent following the season and was a speculative August trade candidate. However, the Jays were only three games out of the AL Wild Card race when Estrada was claimed off revocable trade waivers, and they ultimately pulled the righty back after the claiming team (reportedly the Yankees) was more interested in blocking other contending clubs from getting their hands on Estrada.

Certainly, the team may alter its contention-oriented trajectory in 2018 if it stumbles out of the gates and finds itself similarly out of the postseason picture come July. At that point, there’d be plenty of sense in aggressively shopping Donaldson, Happ and Estrada as well, assuming each is healthy and performing reasonably well. For the time being, however, the Estrada extension serves as further proof that Toronto won’t be looking to market Donaldson this offseason and will instead try to supplement its core with an eye toward returning to the postseason for the third time in four years.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported that the two sides were nearing the deal and then that an agreement had been reached, as well as the terms of the contract (all links via Twitter).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Giants Claim Pierce Johnson Off Waivers, Transfer Brandon Belt To 60-Day DL

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The Cubs announced to reporters that right-hander Pierce Johnson, who was designated for assignment last week, has been claimed off waivers by the Giants. The Giants have transferred first baseman Brandon Belt to the 60-day DL to clear a spot for Johnson, per Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area (Twitter link), which definitively puts an end to Belt’s 2017 season.

Now 26 years of age, Johnson once ranked as one of the Cubs’ very best pitching prospects and was considered the game’s No. 87 overall prospect by Baseball America in the 2013-14 offseason. The former No. 43 overall pick turned in a very strong 2.74 ERA with 9.4 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 across two A-ball levels in 2013 in order to earn that distinction, but his star has faded since that time.

Johnson posted similarly strong ERA marks in both 2014 and 2015, but he struggled with control in ’14 and saw his strikeout rate drop drastically in ’15. The Cubs shifted him to the bullpen for much of the 2016 season in Triple-A Iowa, but Johnson responded with a 6.14 ERA and 6.1 BB/9 through 63 innings that year (albeit with a gaudy 10.7 K/9 rate).

The 2017 season was better, as Johnson pitched almost exclusively in a relief role and posted improvements in ERA (4.34 ERA), strikeout rate (12.3 K/9) and walk rate (4.5 BB/9). He has an option remaining beyond the 2017 season, so if the Giants carry him on the 40-man roster through the offseason, they’ll have the luxury of sending him to the minors during or after Spring Training without first needing to expose him to waivers.

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